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Inside the Prediction Markets: The Establishment Strikes Back
Prediction markets have spent the past two years trying to prove they belong. This week, the establishment responded.
The developments were more than symbolic: investment, integration, lawsuits, enforcement actions, academic scrutiny, and even the first serious attempts to wrap event contracts inside ETFs. Once tolerated as an experiment at the edge of crypto and betting culture, prediction markets are now being tested politically, legally, and institutionally.
In other words, the system is striking back.
Wall Street Cracks the Door Open
The most significant signal came from the institutional universe.
Tradeweb Markets announced a partnership with Kalshi, alongside a minority investment. Initially, Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities feed into Tradeweb’s institutional workflows and then eventually extend to trading access via an institutional-facing portal.
That is not a fringe endorsement. Tradeweb is a core electronic marketplace operator in rates and credit. When a firm of that scale starts experimenting with event probabilities as inputs for macro risk assessment and capital allocation, prediction markets stop being a curiosity.
The logic is straightforward. If bond desks already trade around policy expectations and macro releases, why not integrate crowd-implied probabilities directly into pricing and analytics? The infrastructure is there; the data just needed a distributor.
Liquidity is following the same path. Jump Trading is set to take minority stakes in both Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity. These arrangements resemble venture-style deals, but the strategic message is clearer: event contracts are liquid enough, and scalable enough, to justify serious market-making capital.
The establishment is not dismissing prediction markets. It is wiring them in.The growth narrative is compelling. Capital is flowing. Platforms are scaling. Volume is accelerating.Sports: From Episodic Bets to Continuous Flow
If Wall Street is testing the macro use case, sports may be where scale truly lies.
Startup Pred, a peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange, raised $2.5 million in funding led by Accel, with participation from Coinbase Ventures. It promises 200-millisecond execution, spreads under 2%, and an exchange model where traders face each other rather than a house.
The pitch is telling. Elections and macro events are episodic. Sports are continuous, global, and high-frequency. A $500 billion global sports betting economy already exists — mostly controlled by sportsbooks that manage risk internally and limit winners. Pred’s model reframes sports prediction as a trader-driven marketplace.
Whether it succeeds is secondary to what it represents. Capital is now funding purpose-built exchange infrastructure for sports predictions, not merely retrofitting general-purpose crypto tools.
At the same time, the Super Bowl narrative continues to reverberate. Analysts estimate prediction markets captured roughly 80% of year-on-year wagering growth around the event, leveraging federal CFTC oversight rather than state gambling licenses. That “regulatory flank” has not gone unnoticed.
And it has consequences.
The Courts Push Back
While institutional platforms integrate and startups raise funding, regulators are drawing harder lines.
In the Netherlands, the Dutch Gaming Authority ordered Polymarket to cease operations for offering unlicensed games of chance, threatening weekly fines of €420,000. The regulator rejected the platform’s argument that prediction markets are not gambling and warned of social risks, including election-related concerns.
In the United States, state-level enforcement continues. Nevada regulators scored a procedural win when a federal appeals court rejected Kalshi’s emergency request to pause enforcement. Meanwhile, nearly 50 active legal cases are unfolding across jurisdictions.
The most forceful response, however, came from the federal side. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig filed an amicus brief asserting the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts and warning that it “will no longer sit idly by” while states attempt to block them.
“We will see you in court,” Selig said.
This is no longer a question of product positioning. It is a jurisdictional fight over who governs a fast-growing derivatives category.
Prediction markets are entering the establishment — and the establishment is answering in courtrooms.
Do the Markets Actually Work?As capital flows in and regulators push back, a more fundamental question emerges: do prediction markets actually function the way their advocates claim?
The academic case remains strong — at least on the surface. A recent study analysing more than 300,000 contracts on Kalshi finds that prices broadly track realised outcomes. Contracts priced at 50 cents win roughly half the time, and accuracy improves as expiration approaches.
[Insert Figure 1: Win Percentages Sorted by Price]
The pattern is hard to dismiss. As events draw closer, information accumulates and prices converge toward actual probabilities. On that front, prediction markets behave as advertised: they aggregate dispersed information into a single number.
But pricing accuracy is not the same as economic fairness.
[Insert Figure 2: Post-Fee Return Across Price Ranges]
As capital flows and legal battles intensify, academics are quietly dissecting the economics.
A recent study analysing over 300,000 contracts on Kalshi found that prices broadly reflect probabilities and improve as expiry approaches. In that sense, prediction markets are informative. Contracts priced at 50 cents win roughly half the time, and accuracy improves as expiration approaches.But they also display a classic favourite-longshot bias. Low-priced contracts win less often than required to break even, while higher-priced contracts win slightly more often, resulting in strongly negative returns for those buying cheap “lottery-like” outcomes. The average pre-fee return across contracts was estimated at-20%.
The implication is uncomfortable but important. Prediction markets may be good at aggregating information. They are not necessarily good at distributing profits evenly.
If event contracts are to become embedded in institutional workflows and ETF wrappers — and several issuers are now seeking election-linked funds — their economic mechanics will face more scrutiny.
Legitimacy invites analysis.Bottom Line
This week was not about hype. It was about resistance.
Tradeweb integrates. Jump provides liquidity. Startups build exchange-grade sports infrastructure. ETF issuers prepare political funds. Regulators fine, litigate, and assert jurisdiction. Academics test the model.
Prediction markets are no longer asking whether they belong. They are behaving as if they do.
The establishment, for its part, is no longer ignoring them. It is investing, regulating, and, when necessary, pushing back.
If the past two years were about expansion, this phase is about consolidation. The next chapter will not be written solely by traders or founders, but by exchanges, courts, regulators, and institutional allocators.
The least predictable outcome may not be the result of the next election or sporting event.
It may be who ultimately controls the markets that sets their prices.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
Bithumb $43 Billion Bitcoin Mistake "Highlights Gaps" in South Korea’s Crypto Market
South Korean lawmakers are pushing for closer scrutiny of
the country’s cryptocurrency market following a technical error at Bithumb, one
of the nation’s largest exchanges.Earlier this month, Bithumb
mistakenly credited users with Bitcoin it did not hold. The error briefly
triggered a surge in sell orders. Officials said the incident revealed
potential gaps in market oversight.$43Billion
Bithumb Mistake Prompts RulesThe Financial Services Commission has
proposed limiting major shareholders’ stakes in domestic crypto exchanges.
The measure is intended to strengthen governance under the forthcoming Digital
Asset Basic Act.Bithumb said it miscredited each user with 2,000 BTC instead
of 2,000 Korean won (about $1.40), totaling 620,000 BTC. Most of the
miscredited assets were later recovered. The exchange reported 125 BTC, worth
roughly $8.6 million, remained unrecovered. Bithumb pledged to improve
verification and monitoring systems. Industry reports estimated the total
miscredit at about $43billion
before most assets were corrected.? South Korean authorities under fire over $43B Bithumb Bitcoin error (https://t.co/0xYXvTMNBq)https://t.co/k6N1KPPlXu #Bitcoin— Kobocoin (@kobocoindev) February 20, 2026Lawmakers Criticize FSC Oversight FailuresTraditional financial firms are showing growing interest in
the sector. Mirae Asset Financial Group is reportedly exploring a major stake
in a local exchange, reflecting institutional positioning in South Korea’s
crypto market.Lawmakers criticized the FSC for prior oversight.
Representative Kang Min-guk of the opposition People Power Party said the
incident showed “broader structural issues in the local crypto market,”
including gaps in regulation and oversight. The FSC had inspected Bithumb at
least three times since 2022.South Korea Faces Persistent Crypto Oversight ChallengesThe FSC opened an investigation on February 10. Officials
initially expected it to conclude within days, but it has been extended to the
end of February. Authorities said they would take “stern legal actions against
acts that harm the market order.” Bithumb CEO Lee Jae-won told lawmakers the
exchange had previously experienced two smaller payout errors, which were
corrected.The incident raises further concerns over South Korea’s
handling of digital assets. Previous cases, including missing Bitcoin from
police and prosecutors’ offices, have prompted questions about custody and
security. Analysts say persistent challenges remain in oversight and asset
management in the country’s cryptocurrency sector.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
FxPro Extends McLaren F1 Partnership in Its Largest Sponsorship Deal to Date
“This marks our largest sponsorship to date, not just in monetary value but in strategic impact as well,” says Peter Aust, COO at FxPro, referring to the latest renewal of its partnership with McLaren’s Formula One. The UK-headquartered retail broker was a first mover in the racing sport by sponsoring Virgin Racing in 2009, followed by BMW Sauber in 2010 and in 2018, it inked its first deal with McLaren. This marks the third extension of that relationship. “The 2025 season was extraordinary for both organisations,” Aust explains. “FxPro had a record performance across every major business metric, while McLaren delivered a historic year by securing both the Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships. After sharing this upward journey together since 2018, renewing the partnership following such a milestone felt like a natural progression rather than a difficult decision.”The New Deal Brings Visibility to Prime Real Estate The extended partnership is expected to further boost FxPro’s visibility. The broker’s branding already appeared on the inner sides of the cars near the wing mirrors – a spot frequently picked on by onboard cameras – and on team sleeves, keeping the logo in plain sight across pit-lan action, the pit wall and crew’s official kit. The logo will now also feature on the backs of the drivers’ helmets. “Beyond race coverage, these are often showcased across promotional displays and media assets,further extending our reach,” he notes.Aust doesn’t disclose the cost of the extended partnership, typical in Formula One, where teams and sponsors rarely publish financial terms. Still, Marios Chalis, Chief Marketing Officer at Libertex, which sponsors now-Audi’s F1 team (previously Kick Sauber), had previously indicated that even a lower-tier Formula One sponsorship costs about US$5 million. “More broadly,” Aust tells Finance Magnates, “our total investment in sponsorships to date is close to one-third of a billion US dollars. We see partnerships of this calibre as a key part of our global growth.”The Real Return Is F1’s Global Reach Calculating the return on such sponsorship is, unsurprisingly, imprecise. There is no tidy funnel linking a TV viewer glimpsing the FxPro logo during a McLaren pit-lane shot to a newly opened trading account.Instead, success is measured through reach, market penetration and brand equity.Formula One’s own numbers help justify that logic. In the first half of 2025, China accounted for 221 million fans, a year-on-year increase of 39%, a market Aust describes as “strategically important.”The sport is also thriving across Latin America and the Middle East, key regions for retail brokers, with the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in December 2025 averaging 1.5 million viewers on ESPN, peaking at 1.8 million – an event record. According to Aust, FxPro’s strategy has evolved accordingly. The company once focused on Premier League sponsorships to target the UK, but today the EU accounts for less than 3% of its business, and no single market contributes a double-digit share. “We went down the F1 route because we wanted to align with a company and a sport that would be as global as us,” he highlights. Reaching Gen Z’sDemographics also play a role, with Formula One increasingly resonating with younger audiences: in 2025, 43% of its 827 million global fans were aged 35 and under. The audience is also becoming more balanced, with women now accounting for nearly 42% of the fanbase. McLaren – and its sponsors – has benefited handsomely from shifting demographics. A 2021 survey found the team to be the overall fan favourite among Gen Z audiences. Much of that popularity rests on its youthful and charismatic driver line-up, especially Norris, who today commands 3.1 million followers on TikTok and maintains one of the sport’s most interactive personal websites, where his helmet, now bearing the FxPro logo, is prominently displayed. “As the popularity of trading continues to expand globally, aligning with a sport and a team that is simultaneously growing younger and more diverse directly supports FxPro’s long-term growth ambitions,” he says. “McLaren Offers Credibility That Few Teams Can Match” FxPro’s earlier experiences in Formula One offered cautionary lessons: Virgin Racing was an untested entrant and BMW Sauber withdrew from the sport. So, the company’s criteria changed. “We focused exclusively on historic teams with strong infrastructure and clear future trajectory,” Aust explains. McLaren’s distinctive identity was equally important. “Rooted in over 60 years of racing history across multiple disciplines, McLaren offers credibility that few teams can match. Watching its transformation under Zak Brown’s leadership into championship contenders and winners has made the partnership hugely rewarding,” he says.
This article was written by Adonis Adoni, Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
iFOREX's 2025 Financials Failed to Impress, but 1.1x Revenue IPO Valuation Is Realistic
After a delay of about eight months, iFOREX has set a possible listing date of 25 February 2025. The move appears to be strategic, as the contracts for differences broker ended Q4 2025 with revenue of $13.5 million and EBITDA of about $2 million. The figures recovered from the previous quarter, when they were $7.7 million and negative $3.1 million, respectively.Flat Revenue, but Lower ProfitThe initial public offering (IPO) prospectus published yesterday (Thursday) also noted that the group generated $27.6 million in H1 2025, bringing annual revenue to $48.8 million, which is still below the $50.1 million recorded in 2024.Adjusted EBITDA for last year is expected to be about $4 million, down from $9.7 million the year before.This shows that the company has kept its IPO valuation at 1.1x of its revenue.Net profit for the first six months of 2025 came in at over $1.2 million, down 63.5 per cent year over year. Annual net profit in 2024 was $5.1 million, compared with $26.1 million in 2022 and $6.7 million in 2023.“The Group has positive momentum into FY26,” the prospectus noted.iFOREX, which operates with licences in Cyprus and the British Virgin Islands, is aiming to raise £8.75 million at a valuation of about £43.3 million. It is expected to receive about $6.07 million after commissions and deductions.The contracts for differences (CFDs) broker will use the majority of the proceeds, $1.5 million, to automate its customer onboarding and growth processes. It will also allocate another $1 million to investment in further automation software and products for its onboarding and AI risk management systems.Read more: AI Takes Center Stage in Brokers’ Layoff NarrativesIt will also use about $500,000 to enter new markets and accelerate growth in existing ones, and a similar amount to improve its human resources.Its decision to go public is supported by the belief that the move would raise its profile and help it access new markets, regulatory authorisations, and pursue strategic M&A opportunities.Founded by Eyal Carmon, iFOREX traces its origins to 1996 under different brands. It received its Cyprus licence in 2011 and its BVI licence in 2013. Over 95 per cent of its revenue came from the offshore entity, while the rest was generated by the Cyprus-registered one.The majority of transactions on the platform, 37 per cent, are in currency pairs, followed by 33 per cent in commodities, 19 per cent in indices, and 8 per cent in cryptocurrencies. The remaining 3 per cent came from stocks and ETFs in 2024.Carmon, who is now the sole shareholder of the CFD broker, will not sell any of his stake. However, even after the IPO, he will continue to be the largest shareholder with 58.91 per cent of the stake.The broker is currently led by Itai Sadeh as its CEO. Recovery after a DropiFOREX’s 2025 revenue clearly took a hit due to weak Q3 results. It attributed the weaker quarter to low market volatility and the impact of its IPO delay. It further noted that due to low market volatility, it “implemented a short-term revenue initiative which was ineffective and it was promptly reversed.”Notably, 70 per cent of its revenue is generated from dealing spreads.The majority of iFOREX’s client base is in East Asia, India, and the Middle East. It had 20,159 active clients in the first six months of 2025, broadly similar to a year earlier.Asia, predominantly Japan, remained its top revenue generator, bringing in over $10.6 million between January and June 2025. Revenue from MENA and South Asia, driven by India, was about $8 million and $5 million, respectively.Read more: iForex IPO Aims to Enter New Markets and Reverse Revenue Dependence on AsiaHowever, the figures remain significantly lower than the 2022 peak, which, according to iFOREX, was due to “a significant drop in spread revenues and trading P&L revenues.”Notably, the broker does not have a licence in any of its key markets — Japan, India, or MENA. In practice, it can only reverse solicit traders from those jurisdictions.iFOREX was also placed on warning lists by regulators in its key markets.Related: India Hikes Trading Tax, Will It Push Traders to ‘Unregulated’ CFDs?It intends to use the funds to secure regulatory licenses in Australia, Malaysia, the UAE, Chile, and the UK.Interestingly, iFOREX’s marketing budget also increased in the first six months of 2025: it spent $21.3 million on selling and marketing, up from $15.6 million a year earlier. Its total marketing spend in 2024 was $35.9 million, down from $46.7 million in 2022.The broker, which is B-book heavy, also appears to have reduced risks from the one-sided rally in gold, especially in January. As at 17 February 2026, its residual net exposure was $30.7 million, representing 21.5 per cent of all outstanding positions.iFOREX also remains debt-free, with a net cash balance of $6.7 million at the end of 2025.
This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
Hola Prime Wins “Fastest Payout Prop Firm - MEA 2026” And Publishes the Operational Data Behind It
Prop Trading Firm Pairs Industry Recognition With Measured Payout Metrics and System DisclosureHolaPrime(https://holaprime.com/awards/) has been named “Fastest Payout Prop Firm – MEA 2026” at the Ultimate Fintech (UF) Awards MEA during iFX EXPO Dubai, one of the region’s leading fintech and trading industry gatherings. Instead of leading with the award alone, the proprietary trading firm released internal payout performance data and its payout control framework - positioning operational transparency as part of its funded trader model.According to firm-reported payout records, Hola Prime’s average profit split payout is completed in 33 minutes and 48 seconds, with the fastest recorded payout processed in 3 minutes and 37 seconds. The firm reports an average payout size of approximately $4,500, indicating that timelines in the report reflect standard funded account payouts rather than just some nominal transactions. As part of its commitment to transparency, the firm made the reports publicly accessible on its official website.In the prop trading industry, payout cycles often extend into multi-day timelines due to post-request account audits, manual checks of rules, compliance and KYC checks, and arranging funds. Hola Prime states that its payout performance comes from moving those controls earlier in the lifecycle of the account, rather than compressing them at the payout stage.A fundamental factor in the prop trading industry is the planning of funds. The prop firms need to pay attention to the flow of their revenue, against the amounts they owe to traders. Many prop firms fail because of their lack of ability to do this planning and execution effectively.Hola Prime operates what it describes as a 10-point payout system for funded accounts - a structured pipeline that includes continuous rule-adherence monitoring, real-time profit split calculation, pre-allocated daily payout funds, surge cash flow buffers, ongoing KYC and AML screening, maker–checker authorization, automated payout rail selection by region and method, priority processing for fully verified traders, end-of-day treasury and ledger reconciliation, and full audit-trail generation for every payout. By running verification, compliance readiness, and funds provisioning in parallel, the payout step becomes an execution event rather than a review trigger. All of this runs parallel to their copy trading systems at the back end, which makes them one of the few firms invested in trader success.“Fast payouts don’t come from processing faster - they come from designing the payout pipeline correctly. When rule checks, profit calculations, and cash flow provisioning are engineered upstream, execution time compresses naturally. That’s a systems result, and systems results can be measured,” said Somesh Kapuria, CEO of Hola Prime.As prop trading expands globally, traders are increasingly evaluating firms on payout reliability and processing transparency alongside evaluation rules, scaling models, and profit split ratios. In that environment, disclosed payout metrics function as an operational signal - not just a service claim.About Hola PrimeHolaPrime is a premier proprietary trading firm dedicated to empowering skilled traders with substantial capital and professional-grade tools. Recognized for its commitment to speed and transparency, Hola Prime offers a secure environment for traders across Forex, Futures, and Commodities, backed by a robust payout infrastructure.
This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.
From Passive Consumer to Infrastructure Pillar: The New Digital Identity
The Era of the Digital SpectatorFor the better part of two decades, the average internet user has existed in a state of passive consumption. We have been trained to view the internet as a service that happens to us—a top-down delivery of data, entertainment, and utility managed by a handful of centralized gatekeepers. In this model, the user is the customer at best and the product at worst. We provide our attention and our data in exchange for access to platforms we do not own and infrastructure we do not control.This "spectator" identity has led to a fundamental disconnect between the value we generate and the control we exert. While our digital lives have become more complex, our role in the physical architecture of the web has remained stagnant. We pay for resources we don't fully use and rely on remote data centers that prioritize corporate scale over individual sovereignty. NodeLink is challenging this status quo by introducing a new digital identity: the Infrastructure Pillar.Shifting from User to Participant with the NX1The rise of Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN) represents a psychological and structural shift in how we relate to technology. It moves the individual from the sidelines of the digital economy directly into its engine room. When you integrate an NX1 device into your home, you are no longer just "using" the internet; you are sustaining the global grid.This transition is powered by more than just bandwidth. The NX1 activates the dedicated RAM and CPU power within your home, turning your living room into a high-performance compute node. By moving from a position of dependency to one of contribution, you are providing the foundational support that the next generation of AI and data services require. This is an active role that carries both agency and reward, transforming the home into a vital node in a global, resilient grid.The NX1: Your Passport and ProtectorAt the heart of this identity shift is the NX1 hardware. It is more than just a piece of technology; it is a gateway to a participatory economy. Traditionally, participating in global infrastructure required massive capital and technical expertise. NodeLink has democratized this process, making it accessible to any household.But being an Infrastructure Pillar also comes with personal protection. Every NX1 provides a comprehensive suite of premium services for five people during five years at no extra cost, including an enterprise-grade VPN, AI Security, a Password Manager, and an Ad Blocker. This reflects our philosophy that those who build the web should be the most protected by it. By deploying the device and adding Participation Units (PU), individuals seamlessly bridge the gap between their daily lives and the global digital landscape, operating with a "silent power" that secures both the grid and their own home.Redefining Value in the "DePIN of DePINs" EraIn the centralized cloud era, value was something captured by corporations. In the DePIN era, value is co-created by the network's participants. As NodeLink builds the "DePIN of DePINs," your role as an Infrastructure Pillar becomes even more significant. You are providing the base layer upon which future decentralized projects will deploy their own hardware and services.Through the NodeLink dashboard, you can see the real-time impact of your contribution. This visibility reinforces your new digital identity, providing tangible proof that your NX1 is helping power the global AI revolution. It is a shift toward a more equitable digital world where the rewards of infrastructure growth—generated over a sustained five-year horizon—are distributed back to those who provide the foundation.About NodeLinkNodeLink is a pioneer in Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks (DePIN), dedicated to transforming how the world builds and sustains digital connectivity. We provide the essential edge-based foundation needed to power the next generation of digital innovation. By bridging the gap between idle resources and global demand, NodeLink is fostering a community-powered internet where contribution is rewarded and the future of connectivity belongs to everyone.
This article was written by FM Contributors at www.financemagnates.com.
Kraken’s xStocks Hits $25 Billion in Tokenized Trades in Under Eight Months
Kraken-owned xStocks has surpassed $25 billion in total transaction
volume, highlighting the rapid growth of tokenized equities across centralized
and decentralized venues. According to the crypto exchange, the figure covers trading on exchanges, activity on DeFi
platforms, and mint and redemption flows, all reached in less than eight
months.xStocks Hits $25 Billion as Tokenized Equities ScaleOnchain activity accounts for more than $3.5 billion of the
total, with over 80,000 unique onchain holders participating in the ecosystem. xStocks currently holds eight of the top eleven tokenized
equities by unique holders and represents 68% of the top 25 tokenized stocks by
holder count as of 17 February 2026.$25,000,000,000 in total transaction volume.In under 7 months since launch.@xStocksFi is making history.As part of @payward’s group, xStocks is cementing its position as the largest provider and leading framework for tokenized equities globally. pic.twitter.com/XTPyXOMpBU— Kraken (@krakenfx) February 19, 2026The instruments trade across centralized exchanges, DeFi
protocols, self‑custody wallets and consumer applications, allowing
users to move exposure between venues.You may also like: Kraken-Backed xStocks Debut on Deutsche Börse’s 360X“xStocks have fused crypto and traditional markets, turning
tokenized equities from an idea into global infrastructure. Eclipsing the $25
billion milestone so quickly demonstrates that investors around the world are
ready for markets that are open, permissionless, and built for the internet
age”, commented Val Gui, the General Manager for xStocks. Custody Model, Market Access and Alliance GrowthNotably, crypto trading platforms including Bybit and Gate.io have
integrated xStocks, extending access to tokenized U.S. equities for retail
traders, professional users and institutional clients. Late last year, Kraken acquired Backed Finance, the firm behind the issuance of xStocks. The exchange aimed to bring these tokenized products closer to its main trading business as it works toward a planned public listing in 2026. Kraken already offered several tokenized stocks and ETFs that are created by Backed.Additionally, xStocks went live on 360X this month, giving Deutsche Börse Group clients access to tokenized versions of major equities on a regulated secondary trading venue. It also marked the first major product milestone under the partnership the two firms announced in December.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
cTrader Admin 9.9 Delivers Operational Refinements as Broker Count Tops 300
Spotware
has shipped version 9.9 of cTrader Admin, its back-office management platform
for brokers and prop firms, with a handful of targeted changes aimed at tidying
up daily operations rather than overhauling the product.The update
does not introduce major new capabilities, but focuses instead on reducing
friction in routine tasks, including session visibility, centralized settings,
and trimming the number of clicks needed to reach common controls.“With
cTrader Admin 9.9, we focused on targeted refinements that cut unnecessary
steps from routine workflows, keeping administration clean, consistent and easy
to manage day to day,” Irina Olyaeva, Product Manager for cTrader Admin at
Spotware.The latest data for Q4 2025 shows, however, that the main competitor of cTrader, MetaTrader 5, accounts for the half of CFD volumes, according to fmintelligence portal.Client Identification Gets
FasterOne of the
more useful additions is email visibility inside the Sessions app. Until now,
managers reviewing client activity had to work primarily from account numbers.
Version 9.9 adds the client email address alongside that number, both in
session views and in exported reports.The new
Workspace settings app pulls together several previously scattered
configuration panels into a single screen. Managers who previously had to jump
between separate menus to adjust these parameters can now handle them from one
place.On the
trader-facing side, cTrader Mobile
5.6 earlier this year brought
equity charts, candle countdowns and a new landscape mode, part of a broader
push as the mobile CFD market moves toward an estimated $133 billion in value
by the end of the decade.The main
navigation has also been trimmed down. Clicking the menu icon in the top-left
collapses the app list into icon-only view, recovering screen real estate
without removing access. The “Global tools” and “Help”
items have moved from the top toolbar down to the lower portion of the main
menu, keeping the header uncluttered while leaving login and account-switching
controls where they were.Tick Data Now Visible in
Orders AppThe Orders
app has been rebuilt with three tabs: Details, Ticks, and Journal. The Ticks
tab is new and surfaces bid/ask prices, timestamps, and tick direction data
that was previously not available through the interface. The symbol
ID, previously only visible in the main symbol grid, now also appears in the
Details view for individual instruments.Spotware
also tidied up some configuration logic. The lots/units toggle has been removed
from the Symbol grouping wizard. Asset classes in cTrader Admin will now be
configured in lots only, while unit-based settings remain available to traders
on the client-facing side. The company says this reduces the risk of
configuration mismatches between the admin and trader environments.On the
liquidity side, operators can now rename feeds directly within the Liquidity
feeds app, making it easier to maintain clean internal labels when provider
details change over time.A Stream of Platform
UpdatesThe 9.9
release continues a pattern of incremental broker-side improvements Spotware
has been rolling out over recent months. Version 9.8, released in late 2025,
had marked a broader transition, officially
retiring the cBroker name in favor of cTrader Admin and introducing session
analytics and color-coded account management.The admin
updates run alongside a busier period more broadly for Spotware. The company
reportedly doubled its trading volume and added two million users in the past
year, onboarding
104 new broker and prop firm clients during 2025. cTrader currently serves more than 11 million traders and over 300 clients.The company
also deepened its broker ecosystem through a partnership
with iSAM Securities,
giving retail brokers access to risk and trading solutions via the combined
offering. More
recently, Mauritius-based Frontbroker
integrated cTrader across its client accounts, extending the platform's reach into
African-regulated markets.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Second Broker Renounces Cyprus Investment Firm License in Under a Month
Cyprus’ financial regulator has withdrawn the Cyprus
Investment Firm licence of OBR Investments Ltd after the company decided to
give up its authorisation. The decision closes the firm’s status as a regulated
CIF in Cyprus.Another Broker Exits CySEC OversightLast month, Cyprus’ securities regulator withdrew the CIF license of HTFX (EU) Ltd after the broker opted to exit the local regime. The decision follows the company’s choice to give up its authorization rather than continue operating as a Cyprus Investment Firm. The watchdog said the step formalizes HTFX’s renunciation of its licence and ends its status as a CySEC‑supervised CIF.According to Thursday announcement, CySEC decided
on February 9 to withdraw the CIF authorization of OBR Investments Ltd. The regulator stated that it withdrew the
authorization because the company expressly renounced it. The notice lists
“N/A” for judicial review and ruling, which indicates that no court procedure
or additional ruling applies to this decision.CySEC Decision and DatesOBR Investments Ltd operated as a Cyprus Investment Firm authorized by CySEC under license number 217/13 and used the trading name OBRinvest. The broker offered online trading in contracts for difference (CFDs) across several asset classes, including currencies, stocks, indices, commodities and cryptocurrencies, to clients in the European Economic Area and Switzerland.Expect ongoing updates as this story evolves.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Retail Traders Could See Fewer Weekend Gaps as CME Prepares 24/7 Crypto Trading
CME Group said its regulated cryptocurrency futures and
options will be available for trading 24 hours a day, seven days a week,
pending regulatory review.While CME does not offer direct retail access, the move may
have indirect implications for retail traders. Those who access CME products
through brokers or futures commission merchants could see smaller weekend price
gaps and closer alignment with spot cryptocurrency markets. The change may also
improve hedging flexibility outside standard trading hours.CME Launches 24/7 Crypto Futures TradingThe exchange will begin continuous trading on Friday, May
29, at 4:00 p.m. CT. Products will trade on CME Globex with at least a two-hour
maintenance window over the weekend.Trades executed from Friday evening through Sunday evening
will carry a trade date of the following business day. Clearing, settlement,
and regulatory reporting will also be processed the next business day.Tim McCourt, Global Head of Equities, FX and Alternative
Products at CME Group, said demand has increased. He stated that “Client demand
for risk management in the digital asset market is at an all-time high,” and
that this drove “a record $3 trillion in notional volume across our
Cryptocurrency futures and options in 2025.” He added that continuous access
allows clients to manage exposure “at any time.”Derivatives Trading Shows Rising Activity LevelsCME reported record activity in its cryptocurrency
derivatives in 2026. Average daily volume reached 407,200 contracts
year-to-date, up 46% year-over-year. Average daily open interest rose 7% to
335,400 contracts, while futures average daily volume increased 47% to 403,900
contracts.The exchange operates futures and options markets across
multiple asset classes, including interest rates, equity indexes, foreign
exchange, energy, agricultural products, metals, and cryptocurrencies. It also
provides clearing through CME Clearing and offers fixed income trading via
BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on EBS.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
Equals Money Appoints Head of Digital Assets After Tenures at Binance, Gemini
Marcus Bacchi-Howard has shared on LinkedIn that he is
joining Equals Money as Head of Digital Assets.Equals Money Hires Experienced Digital Assets ExecutiveBacchi-Howard has extensive experience in digital asset
sales and trading. He most recently worked as a business development consultant
at NewQube Capital for seven months. Before that, he was Head of Sales and
Managing Director at One Trading for one year.He also held institutional sales roles at Gemini for ten
months and at Binance for one year and seven months. Earlier in his career,
Bacchi-Howard served as Director of Institutional Sales at BEQUANT for one year
and three months, COO at Helix Securities for ten months, and as a Delta 1
Trader at ED&F Man for more than ten years. He also worked as a Delta 1
Trader at MF Global for ten months and in prime brokerage client services at
Morgan Stanley for over seven years.Bacchi-Howard’s career spans more than two decades in
financial services, with most of his roles based in London.Payment Networks Adopt Stablecoin InfrastructureFinancial firms have integrated stablecoins into payment and
settlement processes. Platforms such as LMAX
offer tools for real-time transfers across foreign exchange, crypto, and
stablecoin markets. These tools target wallets, custodians, and payment
providers to facilitate faster liquidity movements.Institutional firms have
adopted stablecoins and white-label crypto payment platforms to enhance
payments infrastructure. Providers such as B2BinPay are expanding services to
support automated and tokenized settlement across multiple digital asset
networks.Mainstream financial institutions are exploring stablecoin
issuance for transaction and settlement purposes. Fidelity
Investments has prepared for a stablecoin launch to support broker and
institutional operations, reflecting broader adoption trends.Payment networks are incorporating stablecoins into
traditional banking systems. Visa has initiated U.S. programs to allow
stablecoin usage for payments, demonstrating interaction between digital assets
and conventional payment infrastructure.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
Tradeweb Backs Kalshi After Jump Trading to Push Prediction Markets to Institutions
Tradeweb Markets and Kalshi entered a partnership that
aims to bring prediction markets and event contracts into the core workflows of
institutional investors. Tradeweb has also taken a minority stake in Kalshi as
part of the deal.According to the global operator of electronic
marketplaces, the collaboration combines Tradeweb’s electronic trading platform
and global institutional client base with Kalshi’s event-driven markets and
data.Electronic trading platform Tradeweb signed a deal to bring Kalshi’s prediction markets to more institutional investors https://t.co/kGtTIb7NKT— Bloomberg (@business) February 19, 2026Partnership and InvestmentTradeweb plans to use its reach to expand institutional
access to prediction market data and trading. The firm's CEO, Billy Hult, said prediction markets are
becoming part of the trading landscape and can help institutions assess macro
risk and allocate capital.“Prediction markets are increasingly becoming a key part of
the trading landscape, and have the potential to become an indicator for
institutions to dynamically assess macro risk and allocate capital more
effectively.”You may also find interesting: Inside the Prediction Markets: Working Their Way Into Wall Street and BeyondThe first stage of the partnership will focus on data.
Tradeweb and Kalshi will integrate Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities and
market data into Tradeweb’s rates and credit marketplaces. The firms will also co-develop analytics that combine
Kalshi’s event probabilities with Tradeweb’s pricing, liquidity, and macro
data. The aim is to give institutional investors new tools for forecasting,
risk management, and pricing that incorporate event-based signals, such as the
probability of policy decisions or economic releases.Event-Contract Trading PlansBeyond data and analytics, Tradeweb and Kalshi will
explore creating an institutional-focused portal for trading event contracts.
Tradeweb would act as the front-end access point, while Kalshi would provide
the underlying prediction markets platform.The deal follows a similar arrangement with Jump Trading. The proprietary investment firm is set to acquire a minority equity stakes in prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket in exchange for providing liquidity, according to Bloomberg. The investment strengthens the Chicago-based firm’s connection to a fast-growing segment of the derivatives market centered on event-based contracts. The agreement with Kalshi includes a predetermined equity allocation, sources familiar with the matter said, requesting anonymity because the discussions are private. Jump’s stake in Polymarket, meanwhile, will reportedly be determined by the scale of trading capacity the firm ultimately contributes to the platform’s U.S. operations.
This article was written by Jared Kirui at www.financemagnates.com.
Hacker Changes Heart, Returns $21M Bitcoin to South Korean Prosecutors, Hunt Continues
South Korean prosecutors said they recovered 320.88 Bitcoin
this week after the cryptocurrency was returned to an official wallet. At the
time of writing, the coins were worth about $21.3 million, according to The
Chosun Daily.320 Bitcoin Recovered, Suspect Still SoughtThe Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office said the Bitcoin,
stolen in August 2025, was discovered missing during a routine inspection on
Jan. 23. Authorities attributed the theft to a phishing attack after access
credentials were exposed. The returned funds were later moved to a secure domestic
exchange wallet. Prosecutors requested local exchanges to freeze the hacker’s
wallet, limiting the ability to liquidate the assets, but did not provide a
reason for the return. “We will do our best to arrest the suspect regardless of the
recovery of the bitcoin,” the office told Digital Asset Works.? JUST IN: South Korean prosecutors have recovered $21M in stolen Bitcoin after a hacker returned the funds when authorities blocked related exchange transactions. The hacker’s identity is still unknown. pic.twitter.com/brAXiVKfcZ— The Daily Block (@thedailyblock) February 19, 2026Seoul Police Lose 22 Bitcoin, Probe ContinuesThe recovery follows a separate incident in Seoul, where 22
Bitcoin, worth about $1.5 million, vanished from police custody. The coins had
been voluntarily submitted in November 2021 and were transferred externally,
though the cold wallet itself was not stolen. The Gyeonggi Northern Provincial
Police Agency is investigating the missing 22 Bitcoin.High-Value Hacks Dominate Crypto Theft TrendsCrypto
theft reached $3.4 billion in 2025, driven largely by a few high-value
breaches, according to Chainalysis. North Korea-linked actors were responsible
for at least $2 billion in stolen cryptocurrency. While large exchange and custodial hacks accounted for most
losses, thefts from individual wallets also rose, affecting tens of thousands
of users. The report highlighted evolving attack methods, including social
engineering and impersonation, and noted that a small number of incidents
continued to drive the majority of stolen funds. Analysts say these trends
underscore persistent security risks across the crypto ecosystem.
This article was written by Tareq Sikder at www.financemagnates.com.
50 jobs in 2 weeks: Kraken's Cyprus Hiring Frenzy Following MiFID Buy
Over the past fortnight, Kraken has posted roughly 50 Cyprus-linked vacancies on LinkedIn, signalling that the European playbook of the American crypto exchange is shifting from acquisition to execution.The hiring blitz follows Kraken’s 2025 purchase of CFD broker Greenfield Wealth, a deal that delivered a Cyprus Investment Firm (CIF) licence and, with it, a passport into Europe’s MiFID regime.Senior Roles Dominate, with a Focus on Engineering A closer look under the bonnet shows that roughly 70% of the vacancies target senior or managerial talent. The Regulatory MiFID Officer role stands out, alongside heavyweight hires such as the Global Head of Middle Office and a Senior AI/ML Engineer.While pay is not stated in the listings, the top-heavy mix of will require significant investment. According to web3.career, a crypto and blockchain job board, the average yearly salary of a legal expert in the space is US$170,000, while senior positions in AI/ML engineering can fetch salaries between US$146,000 and US$277,000. The largest share of vacancies – nearly half – sits in software engineering and technical functions, so product and platform development appear to be priorities. Product and design roles form the next tier, followed by compliance, legal and risk. Operations, finance and marketing roles are present but less prominent. The Lines Between Exchanges and CFD Brokers Are Evolving A growing chorus of crypto exchanges has moved to acquire MiFID licences. In 2025 alone, Coinbase bought the Cyprus unit of BUX, which had offered CFDs under the Stryk brand, while Crypto.com purchased AllNew Investment, the operator of LegacyFX, another CFD provider.The calculation is straightforward: MiFID opens the door to derivatives – futures, options and potentially CFDs – whereas the EU’s MiCA framework is focused primarily on spot trading and custody. As Kris Marszalek, co-founder and chief executive of Crypto.com, said at the time, securing MiFID alongside MiCA “further solidifies” the exchange's ability to offer a comprehensive regulated product suite across the European Economic Area.Kraken, though, appears to be among the first of this cohort to embark on a hiring push of this breadth.At the same time, established brokers are rolling out spot crypto, often via white-label solutions. Pepperstone, which built its own crypto exchange internally, recently joined the trend by offering physical crypto to its Australian clients. For Pepperstone’s Group CEO Tamas Szabo, while the lines between brokers and exchanges are evolving, "client priorities remain constant: cost, execution quality, trust and, increasingly, user experience.”
This article was written by Adonis Adoni at www.financemagnates.com.
Does Web Traffic Actually Drive CFD Volumes? We Ran the Numbers
Conventional
wisdom in brokerage marketing holds that more website traffic means more
business. A dataset from the newly
launched fmintelligence portal puts that assumption to rest.Across 47
retail forex and CFD brokers, the correlation between organic web traffic and
actual trading volumes comes in at just 0.09 - statistically, almost nothing.
The data, which pairs January 2026 traffic figures with recent average monthly
CFD volumes, suggests that the two metrics are essentially measuring different
things entirely.Traffic Is Booming, Just
Not EvenlyThe
sector's total organic traffic hit 40.2 million visits in January 2026, up
36.5% from 29.4 million a year earlier. On the surface, that looks like
broad-based growth. Dig in, and the picture is more divided: 57% of brokers
gained visitors year-over-year, while 36% shed them. The top five brokers alone
now account for almost 74% of all organic visits, up from 69% in January 2025.OANDA leads
the traffic rankings, eToro follows and Capital.com posted the most visible
climb of any large broker.All of this
is happening at a time when the number of active CFD accounts jumped by nearly
one million in a single quarter, reaching
almost 7 million by the end of 2025, according to Finance Magnates
Intelligence data.Volume Leaders Live in a
Different WorldHowever, swap
the ranking criteria from traffic to trading volume, and the leaderboard barely
overlaps.IC Markets
tops the volume table with $1.76 trillion in average monthly activity, yet
ranks fifth by web traffic. OANDA, by contrast, pulls in 14.6 million visitors
to generate $430 billion in volume. CMC Markets
and Plus500 tell another story worth noting. Both saw traffic fall, according
to Finance Magnates Intelligence data, yet both held onto substantial
trading volumes positioning among top 10 brokers. Client retention, it turns
out, doesn't depend on Google rankings.The Full Picture Is on fmintelligenceThis is
only part of what the data shows. The full analysis - covering all 47 brokers,
traffic-to-volume efficiency ratios, business model breakdowns, and
year-over-year growth patterns across broker size tiers, is available on the
newly launched fmintelligence
portal. Registration
is free, and the platform gives access to broker volume data, traffic metrics,
and in-depth industry research that goes well beyond what any single article
can cover.We've
recently also written about how much total CFD trading volume MetaTrader
5 holds, we analyzed India, and we examined how regional internet traffic
is shifting among retail traders
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
iFOREX Prices London IPO at £43.3M After Eight-Month Delay
iFOREX
Financial Trading Holdings Ltd. has priced its initial public offering (IPO) on the
London Stock Exchange at 195 pence per share, setting the company's market
capitalization at roughly £43.3 million. Trading under the ticker IFRX is
expected to begin on February 25.The IPO
caps a drawn-out path to the public markets. iFOREX had originally
planned to list in late June 2025 before pulling the plug on those plans, citing a routine
compliance inspection in the British Virgin Islands that needed more time to
complete. The company only confirmed
the process had restarted two days ago, describing it as being at an "advanced
stage."iForex Placing
Draws Oversubscribed DemandThe
offering consists entirely of 4,487,179 new ordinary shares, with no existing
shareholders selling down their stakes. At 195p, the raise totals £8.75 million, around 20.2 percent of the company's share capital following admission. The
placing was oversubscribed, according to the company, suggesting demand from
institutional investors exceeded the available allocation.Getting
here has been anything but straightforward, and the broader IPO environment for
financial firms has not made things easier. Just last week, prime broker Clear
Street pulled its own
listing after a 40% valuation cut, spooked by software sector selloffs and crypto market volatility.Shore
Capital and Corporate Limited is acting as sponsor, while Shore Capital
Stockbrokers Limited is serving as sole bookrunner for the listing. Both are
regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.Founder
Keeps a Firm GripEyal
Carmon, iFOREX's founder, is not selling shares in this offering and will
remain the majority shareholder after listing. He has entered into a
relationship agreement that takes effect on admission and will continue
advising the business through a consultancy arrangement with Recap Ltd., a
company he wholly owns. The directors, proposed directors, and certain senior
employees holding shares through an employee ownership trust have agreed to a
12-month lock-up, followed by a subsequent 12-month orderly market period."Today marks a pivotal
moment in iFOREX's evolution as we prepare to list on the Main Market of the
London Stock Exchange," CEO Itai
Sadeh framed the listing as a platform for growth. "The oversubscribed placing reflects
investor confidence in our strategy, solid fundamentals and scalable operating
model."If the
listing goes ahead as planned, iFOREX would join a short list of publicly
traded online brokers, a list that has barely
changed since 2016,
despite years of speculation about which firm might go next. Since then,
only
eToro has joined the list, last year, but FX and CFD brokers have
historically avoided public markets, citing regulatory complexity, earnings
volatility, and the difficulty of explaining their business models to
generalist investors. iFOREX is betting that a London listing changes that
calculus, at least for itself.Profit Fell Sharply Even
as Revenue Held SteadyThe IPO
arrives at a time when iFOREX's financials have been under pressure. An earlier FinanceMagnates.com analysis showed
the broker lost around 20% of its clients and saw profits drop by 75% over two
years ahead of the original listing attempt. For the year ended December 31,
2024, the company reported
trading income of $50.1 million and adjusted pre-tax profits of $7.6 million, while net profit fell 31% to just
above $5 million.The full
prospectus, published today, includes new data. The first half of 2025 showed revenue recovering, $27.6
million versus $22.6 million in H1 2024, helped in part by Trump's crypto
endorsements in February 2025 and the tariff-driven market volatility in April.
But
operating profit collapsed to just $420,000 in H1 2025, compared to $4.6
million in the same period a year earlier, as selling and marketing costs
ballooned to $21.3 million - up 36% year-on-year.The
prospectus is candid about what happened in the third quarter of 2025. Revenue
fell to roughly $7.7 million with an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately $3.1
million. The company attributes the miss to three factors: unusually low global
market volatility, disruption caused by the IPO delay (which meant increased
prior marketing spend didn't translate into the brand benefit of being listed),
and a short-term revenue initiative the company itself describes as
"ineffective" and which was "promptly reversed."The
business recovered in Q4 2025, generating approximately $13.5 million in
revenue and $2 million in adjusted EBITDA. For the full year 2025, the company
expects revenue of around $49 million, broadly flat with 2024.LSE Main
MarketListing on
the Main Market, rather than the smaller AIM segment, subjects iFOREX to the
full weight of FCA oversight and UK premium listing standards, which could help
with institutional credibility but also increase disclosure obligations and
compliance costs. The company is also in the process of obtaining a UK
financial services license.The
prospectus, now approved by the FCA, is available on the National Storage
Mechanism and the company's investor relations page. Potential investors are
advised to rely solely on that document, including its risk factors, before
making any investment decision. The company notes that the offering is directed
only at qualified investors in the UK and EEA, and is not available to
investors in the United States, Canada, Australia, South Africa, or Japan.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
Crypto Hacks Hit $4B in 2025, Creating Delayed Risk for Brokers
More than $4 billion was stolen in 255 crypto hacks in 2025, according to Global Ledger. The data reveals a major shift: criminals now use slower laundering techniques, posing new, ongoing risks for financial institutions.
Hackers now rapidly move funds at the moment of attack, but intentionally delay laundering—spreading it over days or even weeks. This creates delayed exposure, complicating detection and risk management for brokers and exchanges.
The findings come after another year of elevated crypto crime. Chainalysis data showed that funds stolen through hacks surged in 2024 compared to prior years, marking the fourth consecutive year in which annual losses exceeded $1 billion.New Laundering Pattern
The 2025 report from Global Ledger analyses the full lifecycle of stolen funds and highlights what it describes as a two-speed playbook. Hackers often move funds within 2 seconds of an exploit, with 76% of transfers occurring before public disclosure, reducing the window for intervention.
However, the subsequent laundering slows, with attackers employing multi-stage techniques such as cross-chain bridges and privacy tools. It now takes an average of over 9 days to reach the cash-out point.
The $2 Billion “Sleeper” Exposure
Nearly $2 billion in stolen 2025 funds remains parked in attacker-linked wallets. This creates a sleeper threat as illicit assets may reenter regulated venues later, heightening compliance challenges.
For brokers and exchanges, point-in-time address screening may miss emerging threats. Illicit funds might resurface long after the original attack, evading detection by static systems.
The Changing Toolkit
The report also notes shifts in laundering infrastructure as over $2.01 billion in stolen funds were routed through bridges, fragmenting transaction trails.Meanwhile, Tornado Cash saw renewed usage following the lifting of sanctions in March 2025. In the second half of the year, the mixer was used in nearly 75% of hacks involving mixers.
For compliance teams, operational risks are intensifying. Longer laundering timelines and complex pathways demand more robust, continuous monitoring—outdated blacklists are no longer sufficient.
This article was written by Tanya Chepkova at www.financemagnates.com.
The $100M Signal: Will Plus500 and IG’s US Success Draw More CFD Brokers into Non-OTC?
Plus500 recently revealed that its non-over-the-counter (non-OTC) revenue for 2025 exceeded $100 million and now accounts for about 14 per cent of the group’s total revenue. This surge came from no non-OTC revenue just a couple of years ago.The growing revenue clearly shows how the contracts for difference (CFD) broker is expanding its footprint beyond its core revenue stream, which is still CFD.CFD Brokers Push for Non-OTC RevenueThe trend to push non-CFD offerings is seen among other brokers as well. According to a recent Acuiti survey conducted for CME Group, four out of five firms that do not yet offer listed derivatives are either planning to or actively considering doing so.IG Group, which has been offering non-OTC trading revenue for years, is also witnessing strong growth in its figures in recent years.The reason behind Plus500’s and IG’s push into non-OTC revenue is the same: their entry into the US futures and options market.IG first entered the US market by acquiring tastytrade for $1 billion in mid-2021, a platform with a large user base. Under the new owner, the US-focused platform also grew strongly: its revenue doubled to over £200 million compared to the pre-acquisition pro forma figure of £100.6 million.The performance of tastytrade also helped IG boost its non-OTC revenue, which the company reports as revenue from exchange-traded derivatives (ETD) and stock trading investments. The London-listed broker generated £191 million from non-OTC streams in the last fiscal year, compared to £63.1 million in the year prior to its tastytrade acquisition.The ETD stream was also boosted by IG’s launch of Spectrum Markets in Europe, but the platform was closed last year. IG, meanwhile, entered the non-OTC market after the global financial crisis through its acquisition of HedgeStreet, which was later rebranded as Nadex.Read more: How Does Shifting to Futures and Options Affect Broker Revenue?Following the US PlaybookPlus500, on the other hand, operated largely as a pure-play CFD provider. It began diversifying into non-OTC products with the 2021 rollout of Plus500 Invest, a futures and share-dealing platform in some European markets. It later expanded its non-OTC offering with the acquisition of Cunningham Commodities, which gave it access to the US futures markets. It now offers retail services there under the Plus500 Futures brand.Despite entering non-OTC markets after the COVID-19 pandemic, the broker started to report its non-OTC revenue only in 2024, when it generated $76.8 million from this stream, about 10 per cent of its total revenue. It can be assumed that, before non-OTC revenues appeared on the company's financials, business from those streams was negligible.Plus500 is now also eyeing the regulated Indian derivatives market. It closed the $20 million acquisition of a local derivatives broker earlier this month, but did not share details of its plan for the most populous country. Notably, India is the largest derivatives market in terms of average daily turnover.Meanwhile, retail demand for futures and options trading in the US is also growing. In 2024, total US options volume jumped 10.6 per cent. By Q3 2025, Cboe said overall listed-options activity was running at record levels (59 million contracts per day through September 2025) and linked part of the surge to rising retail engagement.Non-OTC, but in Non-US MarketsCMC Markets is among the early entrants in the non-OTC markets. Its expansion beyond CFDs dates back to 2008, when it entered Australian stockbroking following the acquisition of Andrew West & Co, which became CMC Stockbroking.Lord Peter Cruddas-led platform has maintained a double-digit share from its non-OTC revenue for years. In the last fiscal year, non-OTC streams, which are mainly investing services for this platform, brought in £44.4 million, 13.1 per cent of its total revenue. This share improved to 14.1 per cent in the first six months of the ongoing fiscal year.Related: CMC Markets Joins Other CFD Brokers with “Super App” Ambition, Floats a 3-Phase PlanFor Switzerland’s Swissquote, however, securities trading is core, generating almost 86 per cent of its total revenue in 2024.Meanwhile, like Plus500, Poland’s XTB, which remained CFD-focused for years, is now slowly expanding into non-OTC products, including stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, only 1.6 per cent of its total 2024 revenue came from non-OTC streams, although this was up from 0.7 per cent.The push by Plus500 and IG Group towards non-OTC futures trading shows two things: the need for these brokers to diversify beyond CFDs, and the strong demand in the US retail futures trading market.FinanceMagnates.com also recently pointed out that moving from OTC CFDs to exchange-traded futures and options changes how brokers generate revenue and what risks they face. Although CFDs are high-margin products because the broker controls pricing and internalisation of trades, they are heavily scrutinised by regulators.However, revenue from non-OTC products is driven mainly by commissions and exchange fee mark-ups rather than by client trading losses. Margins per contract are typically thinner but more predictable. Brokers do not control spreads in the same way as in OTC products because prices are formed in a central order book.Despite the growing popularity of non-OTC markets, big CFD brokers are also expanding into institutional services, as many operate as prime brokers and liquidity providers. Plus500 is even directly and indirectly entering new markets, such as prediction markets and prop trading.
This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
How High Can Bitcoin Go? Trump's BTC Price Prediction Says It Will Hit $1 Million
Bitcoin (BTC) is
trading at roughly $66,900 on February 19, 2026, less than
half the all-time high of $126,198 set just four months ago.
Yet despite one of the sharpest drawdowns in recent memory, some of the
market's most prominent voices are doubling down on bullish long-term calls. According
to my technical analysis, Bitcoin has settled into a new consolidation corridor
between $60,000 and $71,000-$72,000, with both the 50-period EMA
and the 200 EMA sitting far above current price levels - a clear sign that the
broader trend remains firmly bearish. Based on my
over a decade of experience as an analyst and trader, these accumulation zones
are precisely where the next major directional move begins to take shape. In this
article, I examine why the Bitcoin price prediction of $1 million has
re-entered the conversation, analyze the BTC chart, and present the newest
Bitcoin price predictions from institutional analysts.Follow
me on X for more Bitcoin market analysis: @ChmielDkBitcoin Price Today: The
NumbersBitcoin
opened February 19, 2026 at $66,420, reaching an intraday high
of $66,930 before settling around $66,900 -
up a modest 0.74% on the day. That quiet session masks a
brutal recent history. From the ATH of $126,198 in October
2025, BTC has shed nearly 47% in value. The 24-hour
trading volume currently stands at $33.33 billion, while Bitcoin's
total market capitalization has dropped below the psychological $2
trillion threshold to approximately $1.34 trillion,
according to CoinMarketCap data.The slide
accelerated after Bitcoin began 2026 oscillating between $82,000 and
$98,000 - a tight range that held for the first two months of the
year. That structure collapsed. The question now is whether the new, lower
range holds, or whether the next leg down has already begun.Bitcoin Price Technical
AnalysisAccording
to my technical analysis, after a very dynamic start to 2026, Bitcoin has found
a new consolidation range. Where the market previously moved sideways
between $82,000 and $98,000 for roughly two months, the new
channel is materially lower - bounded by $60,000 support on
the downside and $71,000-$72,000 resistance on the upside. As
I can see on the chart, these are the lowest price levels since October 2024.The overall
trend context remains clearly bearish. The 50-period moving
average is located at $79,000 - a considerable distance from current
price. The 200 EMA sits at $93,000. Only a recovery and sustained
close above that 200 EMA level would signal that the Bitcoin chart is genuinely
returning to a bullish trend structure.Key
technical levels as I see them right now:Current
price: $66,900Resistance zone: $70,000-$72,000 (upper
range boundary, recent rejection area)50
MA: $79,000 (distant bearish overhang)200 EMA: $93,000 (major trend
reversal threshold)Support: $60,000
(lower range boundary)Downside target on breakdown: $52,000 (September 2024
lows)As shown on
my chart, what this environment offers traders is swing trading within
the range - buying near tests of $60,000 support, selling into tests
of $70,000-$72,000 resistance, and waiting to see what Bitcoin does next. If we break
convincingly below $60,000, I would target $52,000 - the
September 2024 floor. A breakout above $72,000, however, would demand close
attention. The character of that move will determine whether the bull market is
truly resuming or whether resistance simply shifted higher.Why Is Bitcoin Falling?The trigger
was a violent deleveraging event on February 6, which sent implied
volatility spiking and wiped out billions in leveraged positions before a rapid
- and deceptive - recovery."The
retreat in implied volatility since the February 6 spike is often read as
stabilisation. I would characterise it differently," said Adam Saville
Brown, Head of Commercial at Tesseract Group. As he described the mechanics,
"What we are seeing is the mechanical aftermath of a significant
deleveraging event, not a market that has found equilibrium."The numbers
are stark. Open interest across major exchanges contracted by roughly
22% in a single week. Over $2.5 billion in leveraged positions
were liquidated. Funding rates have turned negative for the first
time since 2023 - a signal that speculative excess has been fully
purged.Spot
Bitcoin ETF flows compound the picture. The ETF complex has flipped to net
negative flows for 2026. Fund-level allocators - many of whom entered at an
average cost basis around $81,000 - are mechanically
de-risking as drawdown thresholds are triggered. That
selling is visible, predictable, and structural. Yet at the same time, wallets
holding more than 1,000 BTC have accumulated
approximately 53,000 BTC over the past two weeks - the largest
accumulation wave since November, representing roughly $4 billion
in capital deployment. The market is not doing one thing. It is splitting
between those managing quarterly benchmarks and those using the dislocation to
build structural positions.On the
macro front, CPI cooling to 2.4% and the Federal Reserve in
pause mode compresses real yields - historically supportive for risk assets
including Bitcoin. But uncertainty around the incoming Fed chair has placed a
policy overhang over institutional decision-making."The
volatility spike observed on February 6 has now subsided, with Deribit pricing
BTC implied volatility at 52. While this remains elevated relative to the
12-month average, it is still toward the lower end of the 35-65 range where
volatility has oscillated over the past two years," said Paul Howard,
Senior Director at Wincent. As he added
regarding the near-term setup, "This aligns with our broader thesis that
we do not expect an aggressive move higher or lower in the near term. Instead,
markets appear to be awaiting clearer catalysts."Eric Trump: "I've
Never Been More Bullish on Bitcoin"Against a
backdrop of carnage, Eric Trump - son of US President Donald Trump and
co-founder of World Liberty Financial - delivered one of the
most emphatic public endorsements of Bitcoin since the crash began. In a
February 18 CNBC interview, he declared he has "never been more
bullish on Bitcoin" in his life and predicted BTC will ultimately
reach $1 million."We
still are, I'm a huge proponent of Bitcoin. I do think it hits a million
dollars. I think it's one of the greatest performing asset classes. I mean, go
back two years, Bitcoin was at $16,000, you know, where is it at right
now?" Trump said.JUST IN: ?? Eric Trump says Bitcoin will reach $1 million. "I've never been more bullish on Bitcoin in my life." pic.twitter.com/niJH5ILfh9— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) February 18, 2026As he
anchored the case in historical data, "If you look at the last 10 years,
Bitcoin has gone up 70 per cent a year on average. Year over year for the last
decade - name an asset class that has performed better than Bitcoin."Trump
pointed to the relentless march of institutional adoption as the structural
driver. Fidelity, Charles Schwab, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs -
all are now allocating cryptocurrency to private wealth clients. "Before
they were telling them to put exactly zero into cryptocurrency. Then it was
2 per cent, now all of a sudden it's 5-6 per cent, and that number keeps on
climbing," he said. His message to investors uncomfortable with volatility
was blunt: "If you do not want volatility, go invest in some Munis, go
have a great time, go invest in some Treasuries. You are going to have
volatility with something that has tremendous upside."The
sentiment mirrors that of Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of
MicroStrategy - which holds one of the world's largest corporate Bitcoin
reserves. When Bitcoin fell over 31% from its ATH to $86,800 back in November
2025, Saylor framed the swings as a feature rather than a bug. "Volatility
is the vitality of Bitcoin," he said. As he put it to CoinDCX, "In a
world where Bitcoin offered steady, predictable returns, Warren Buffett would
own all of it and there wouldn't be an opportunity for us."Bitcoin Price Prediction:
What Analysts Say for 2026Most
institutional forecasts were built before the current crash deepened - which
makes them useful anchors for what a recovery scenario might look like.The bull
case rests on three pillars: accelerating institutional adoption, a Fed pivot
compressing real yields, and the structural supply squeeze driven by
post-halving dynamics and continued ETF accumulation. Bloomberg's
Eric Balchunas estimated earlier this year that Bitcoin ETF inflows in 2026
could range between $20 billion and $70 billion - with the
upper end conditional on Bitcoin pushing toward the $130,000-$140,000 range.But the
derivatives market tells a more cautious short-term story. As Saville Brown of
Tesseract Group noted, "Negative funding and a crowded short base create
the conditions for a sharp reversal if a catalyst emerges. The leverage flush
cleared the board. What happens next depends on whether the macro uncertainty
lifts before the operators finish accumulating."FAQWhat is Bitcoin's price
today, February 19, 2026?Bitcoin is
trading at approximately $66,900, up roughly 0.7% on the day. That
remains nearly 47% below its all-time high of $126,198 set in
October 2025.Can Bitcoin really hit $1
million?Eric Trump
and long-term advocates argue yes, citing Bitcoin's decade-long average annual
return of 70% and rapidly rising institutional allocation rates. Most analyst
forecasts for 2026, however, are significantly more measured - ranging
from $130,000 to $225,000 by year-end.What is the Bitcoin price
prediction for the end of 2026?Analyst
targets range from $130,000 (Bloomberg/Balchunas) to $225,000
(Bit Mining's Wei Yang), with Grayscale calling for a new all-time high by
mid-2026. These forecasts assume macro conditions improve and ETF flows return
to positive territory.What are the key Bitcoin
support and resistance levels right now?Critical
support sits at $60,000, with a confirmed breakdown targeting $52,000 (the
September 2024 floor). Resistance is clustered between $70,000 and
$72,000. A recovery above the 200 EMA at $93,000 would be
the first genuine signal that a new bull trend is underway.
This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.
The5ers Launches Futures Prop Offerings Worldwide
The5ers has become the latest prop firm to enter the futures arena with the launch of its new futures prop offerings. Several other contracts for difference (CFD) prop firms have also entered the futures prop sector, including big names such as FundedNext.CFD Props See Value in FuturesThe primary goal of most CFD prop firms expanding into futures prop offerings is to capture the lucrative US market. After the so-called crackdown by MetaQuotes on CFD props onboarding US-based traders, futures prop platforms filled the gap in that country. Now, brands such as TopStep, Apex, and MyFundedFutures lead the US futures prop space.The5ers’ futures prop offerings will be available to traders worldwide, meaning it will onboard US-based traders as well.As FinanceMagnates.com reported earlier, The5ers re-entered the US market with its CFD prop offerings late last year and is offering services there on the cTrader platform. Notably, only FTMO is offering prop services in the US on MetaTrader 5.[#highlighted-links#]
Addressing the Gaps in the MarketThe5ers will offer its futures prop products on the Black Arrow trading platform initially, but has plans to add additional platforms in the future.“We realised that attracting traders from different backgrounds and disciplines means we need to find common ground for everyone,” said Gil Ben Hur, founder of The5ers.However, The5ers’ entry into the futures prop market did not come as a surprise, as the company had hinted at its move months earlier.Despite the launch, the futures offerings are still in beta, as the company wants to “ensure stability and optimal user experience.”The futures platform stressed that it will allow traders to hold overnight positions in popular markets such as gold, silver, and the NASDAQ. It will also allow traders to trade the news. This comes as several other platforms have been introducing tight rules for traders.Fundingticks, the futures prop unit of FundingPips, even introduced some harsh rules last December retrospectively, attracting backlash from the trading community. Although the company removed the retrospective effect of the rules, it eventually decided to wind down operations.Meanwhile, the founders of The5ers have also followed industry trends by entering the CFD brokerage market with the Cyprus-regulated TSG brand.
This article was written by Arnab Shome at www.financemagnates.com.
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