USDCHF has strengthened sharply, rising 1.3% this week and more than 3.3% since the start of the month, supported by a stronger US dollar and weaker Swiss francThe Fed’s hawkish tone boosted the dollar, as markets increased expectations for a possible US rate hike after Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability and the fight against inflationThe Swiss franc came under pressure after the SNB kept rates at 0% and signaled readiness to intervene in the FX market to prevent excessive franc appreciation, which supports the upward bias in USDCHF The USDCHF pair has strengthened noticeably in recent days. This week, the exchange rate rose by 1.3%, and since the beginning of the current month it has gained more than 3.3%. This move has been driven mainly by a combination of a stronger dollar and a weaker Swiss franc, which came under pressure following the Swiss National Bank’s statement.On the US side, the key factor was the FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.5–3.75% range, as well as Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh strongly emphasized that the Fed’s priority remains price stability, meaning the fight against inflation. Investors interpreted this message as a signal that the US central bank could return to rate hikes sooner if incoming data confirm persistent price pressures.As a result, expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy in the United States increased. The market began pricing in the possibility of a rate hike within the next six weeks as a scenario close to a 50% probability. This supported the dollar, especially against lower-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc. Probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate range for individual meetings, based on futures contracts, source: CME Fedwatch Tool The SNB keeps rates unchanged but warns against an excessively strong FrancIn Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank kept its main interest rate at 0%, while at the same time emphasizing its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. This means that, if necessary, the SNB may sell francs to limit an excessively rapid and excessive appreciation of the currency.For the market, this was an important signal. The franc remains one of the key safe-haven currencies, which is why it often strengthens during periods of geopolitical tension. However, the SNB indicated that an overly strong currency could harm the economy, especially exporters, and further reduce inflation. After the statement, the franc weakened against the euro, confirming that investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a factor limiting the Swiss currency’s appreciation potential. Daily timeframe of EURCHF, source: TradingView Inflation in Switzerland currently stands at 0.6% and remains within the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. The bank slightly raised its inflation forecast for this year from 0.5% to 0.6%, while expecting only moderate price growth in the following years. At the same time, the economic growth forecast remained unchanged, assuming growth of around 1% this year and 1.5% next year. This shows that the SNB’s main concern is currently not inflation, but the exchange rate of the franc. Switzerland inflation rate, source: Trading Economics Diverging central bank stances support USDCHFThe current situation in USDCHF clearly reflects the divergence between Fed and SNB policy. The Federal Reserve is signaling greater determination in fighting inflation and may be ready to tighten monetary policy further. The SNB, by contrast, is keeping rates at 0% and is focused primarily on preventing excessive appreciation of the franc.This combination supports further gains in USDCHF. The dollar is benefiting from higher expectations for US interest rates, while the franc remains under pressure due to the SNB’s readiness to act in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the temporary agreement in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which also limited interest in the franc.The market will remain sensitive to data and geopoliticsIn the coming weeks, the performance of USDCHF will depend mainly on two factors: US macroeconomic data and the level of geopolitical tensions. If inflation in the United States remains elevated and the Fed maintains a firm tone, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Warsh has announced less predictable communication and greater dependence of decisions on incoming data, which could increase volatility in the currency market. On the other hand, a decline in oil prices, weaker economic growth or lower inflation readings could reduce expectations for US rate hikes and therefore weigh on the dollar. For the franc, the key issue will remain whether geopolitical tensions rise again. A return of risk aversion could increase demand for the Swiss currency, although the SNB has clearly suggested that it will counteract any excessively sharp appreciation.USDCHF maintains a bullish bias Daily timeframe USDCHF, source: TradingView For now, the balance of fundamental factors supports further strength in USDCHF. The pair is benefiting both from dollar appreciation following the Fed’s hawkish message and from franc weakness after the SNB’s statement. The 1.3% weekly rise and the gain of more than 3.3% since the beginning of the month show that investors are clearly shifting capital toward the US currency. As long as the market continues to price in the possibility of rate hikes in the United States, while the SNB signals readiness to limit franc strength, USDCHF may remain under upward pressure. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. Crude oil has fallen sharply, with WTI posting a 10% weekly decline as Gulf oil exports resume and supply concerns ease, supporting global risk sentiment and reducing near-term inflation pressures.The US dollar remains the dominant beneficiary of the Fed’s hawkish pivot. Following Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift toward a data-dependent, higher-for-longer policy framework, the US Dollar Index broke above a major resistance level, while the euro, pound, gold, and other rate-sensitive assets remained under pressure.Global equities are entering a consolidation phase despite improved geopolitical conditions. Wall Street rallied strongly on optimism over a peace deal, but profit-taking emerged in US futures and parts of Asia as traders navigate reduced liquidity ahead of the Juneteenth holiday and reassess the implications of restrictive monetary policy.Chart of the day: WTI crude has established a near-term floor at the 200-day moving average. Watch the $75.25/73.40/bbl key near-term support for a potential short-term rebound.Chart of the day - WFT crude’s 10% plunge stabilised at 200-day moving average Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 19 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 10% plunge in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the start of this week has reached an inflexion point for a potential near-term rebound.The decline has begun to stall at the key 200-day moving average, which price has traded above since early February 2026, before the start of the US-Iran war. In addition, the hourly RS momentum has flashed a bullish divergence in its oversold region, suggesting that bearish momentum is starting to wane (see Fig. 1).Watch the 75.25/73.40 key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term rebound scenario to unfold towards the next intermediate resistances at 80.75 and 82.98/84.94 (gap down area of Monday, 15 June 2026).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 73.40 would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario, extending the bearish impulsive down-move sequence to expose the next support levels at 70.25 and 67.40/66.10.Top macro headlines Strait of Hormuz reopens as U.S.-Iran peace deal takes effect: The historic U.S.-Iran peace agreement officially went into effect over the past 24 hours, bringing a definitive end to the highly disruptive maritime blockade. Shipping tracking data confirmed that tankers holding nearly 10 million barrels of crude are actively moving through the critical chokepoint, including the first Saudi-owned vessels since the conflict began. In tandem, Kuwait announced plans to swiftly ramp up crude production back toward 2 million barrels per day within the week, severely deflating the geopolitical risk premium.Wall Street stages massive 2.5% relief rally ahead of Juneteenth holiday: U.S. stock benchmarks surged on Thursday as geopolitical de-escalation sparked aggressive risk-on buying. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge, soaring 2.5% on secular tech tailwinds and mega-cap momentum. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% to cap off trading before Friday’s full market closure in observance of the Juneteenth national holiday. In contrast, SpaceX tumbled for the second consecutive session, losing 3.6%, and ended Thursday at $185.00, still above last Friday’s debut closing price of $160.95.Crude oil suffers severe liquidation, crashing 10% for the week: Energy markets experienced a massive unwinding of long positions as supply anxieties evaporated. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged below $75 before stabilising at $76.83/bbl, marking its lowest level since the earliest days of the Middle East conflict. Brent crude similarly succumbed to selling pressure, settling firmly under the key $80 threshold at $79.25/bbl as global supply channels normalised.Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields remained below last week’s highs: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to settle at 4.45%. However, the short end of the curve remains highly inverted and elevated following the surprise “hawkish vibes” from newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the updated dot plot, keeping fixed-income participants structurally on edge. The 2-year US Treasury yield remained steady at 4.18% as it retested its 4-week range top.Gold dropped lower to $4,209 on the backdrop of a hawkish Fed: Spot gold prices fell 1.1% to settle near $4,209 an ounce. The precious metal faced a dual headwind from an appreciating U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s higher-for-longer baseline, and a sharp reduction in safe-haven demand as shipping corridors across the Middle East successfully reopened.Key macro themes The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unwinding of the war premium: The formal implementation of the U.S.-Iran accord has triggered a rapid recalibration of global commodity supply curves. Front-month energy contracts had spent months pricing in a worst-case structural blockade scenario. With tracking data showing immediate, real-time flows of millions of barrels of crude out of the Gulf, the speculative war premium has completely dissolved. This influx of near-term physical supply shifts the energy narrative from structural deficits back to a projected supply expansion heading into the latter half of the year.Post-Fed yield Curve flattening under the “Warsh Era”: While the broader market celebrated geopolitical breakthroughs, fixed-income horizons continue to digest the monumental communication shift introduced by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. By eradicating forward guidance and elevating the 2026 core PCE forecast to 3.3%, the Fed has locked in a highly restrictive near-term floor. Thursday’s bond activity reflected a pronounced flattening of the yield curve; long-end yields dipped on peace headlines, but short-term instruments (2-year US Treasury yield) remain rigidly anchored to the reality that rate cuts have been eradicated.Holiday liquidity drain and shifting global sessions: With U.S. cash equity and Treasury markets entirely closed today, Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth holiday, global liquidity is experiencing an abrupt structural drop. Settlement cycles are paused, leaving international sessions in Europe and Asia to digest the massive macro shifts of the past 24 hours without the buffer of Wall Street’s active order book.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.5% to lead the session, driven by outperformance among mega-cap tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to close out the pre-holiday week on a positive note. Small caps followed the risk-on move, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.1%, reversing a multi-session downward trend.However, in today’s Asia opening session, the E-mini futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.5% and 0.7% as US Vice President JP Vance delays trip for Iran talks as the 60-day countdown starts to reach a nuclear agreement and a permanent US-Iran peace deal. Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds stabilised as long-term inflation risk premiums eased with lower oil prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.45% but remains above its 50-day moving average at around 4.40%. Conversely, short-term yields hovered near multi-decade highs, locking the curve in a deep inversion following the FOMC’s hawkish dot plot shift.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index remained firmly supported near recent highs, underpinned by the Fed’s upgraded economic projections, and broke above the 100.55 major range resistance level, which had been in place since May 2025.The euro and the British pound extended their losses by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, for the second consecutive session on Thursday, trading at 3-month lows of 1.1458 and 1.3205 against the greenback. Commodities: WTI crude plummeted below $74 before recovering slightly to settle near $75.50/bbl, holding right at the key 200-day moving average after a steep 10% decline on the week. Brent crude followed suit, closing under $80.00 at US$79.25/bbl on Thursday. Spot gold slid 1.4 % to close at $4,209 and extended its losses by 1.4% in today’s Asian session to hover close to the 11 June 2026 low of $4,024/oz. Asia Pacific impact Profit-taking activities in South Korean stocks after Thursday’s rally towards record highs on semi-tailwinds: KOSPI dropped by 1.2 on Friday, in line with intraday weakness seen in Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures, but the South Korean benchmark index is still up 10% for the week.Yen remains wrapped in extreme intervention territory: The Japanese yen weakened towards the 161 handle, hitting an almost 2-year low of 161.81 on Thursday, just a whisker away from 161.95 per US dollar, which was printed on 10 July 2024 and triggered intervention by Japanese authorities. Wide interest-rate differentials, driven by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish policy stance, ensure that the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance remain on high alert for immediate spot-market smoothing.Australian markets dragged down by BHP operational pressures: Defying the broader regional rally, Australia’s ASX 200 opened in negative territory on Friday (-1.1%). The index was dragged down by a sharp 4% drop in BHP shares following unexpected operational constraints at one of its major Canadian production facilities, offsetting regional macro optimism.Top 3 events to watch today Germany PPI (May) - 2:00 PM SGT (consensus: 2.5% y/y, Apr: 1.7% y/y) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUK Retail Sales (May) - 2.00 PM SGT (consensus: 1.9% y/y, Apr: 0% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's Speech - 3.10 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold and signalled a major policy regime shift. While rates remained unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, Chair Kevin Warsh abolished traditional forward guidance, reinforcing a data-dependent approach and increasing the likelihood of higher market volatility.Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations pressured risk assets. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar strengthened as investors repriced the probability of another Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.Markets remain caught between easing geopolitical risks and restrictive monetary policy. While the official US-Iran interim peace agreement supported equity futures and pushed oil prices lower, the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to weigh on equity valuations, gold, and other rate-sensitive assets.Chart of the day: GBP/USD’s intraday plunge overextended, watch 1.3280/3262 key short-term pivotal support for a potential relief corrective rebound.Chart of the day - Relief bounce for GBP/USD as BoE looms Fig. 1: GBP/USD minor trend as of 18 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Wednesday’s 1% plunge in GBP/USD was the worst single-day performance in nine months, reinforced by the Fed’s hawkish hold on monetary policy.Interestingly, yesterday’s drop has now stalled right after a retest of the medium-term ascending trendline for GBP/USD, in place since the 4 November 2025 low, ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy decision out later today at 7.00 p.m SGT (see Fig. 1).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just exited its oversold region after hitting an extreme level of 15.8 ex-post the FOMC, suggesting a potential minor relief-bounce for GBP/USD at this juncture.Watch the 1.3280/3262 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the 1.3325 near-term resistance reinforces the minor corrective rebound scenario towards the next intermediate resistances at 1.3360 and 1.3385.However, a break with an hourly close below 1.3262 invalidates the relief bounce to continue the bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.3237 and 1.3210 on an intraday basis.Top macro headlines Fed holds rates steady, but policy shocks markets with hawkish shift: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate at its target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the central bank’s updated economic projections delivered a hawkish surprise: 9 out of 19 officials now anticipate at least one interest rate increase before the end of 2026, forcing markets to aggressively price out near-term easing cycles.Chair Kevin Warsh triggers Fed "regime change” by killing forward guidance: In his highly anticipated debut press conference, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh structurally overhauled the central bank’s communications playbook. Warsh delivered a drastically shortened committee statement and explicitly abolished traditional forward guidance, stating that financial markets operate best when reacting directly to real economic data rather than central bank hints. He also launched five new internal task forces to review the Fed’s balance sheet, communication framework, and inflation models.Wall Street slumps 1% as higher-for-longer projections rattle tech: U.S. stock benchmarks plunged in the closing minutes of the regular session as investors digested the shifting interest-rate dot plot. The S&P 500 slid 1.2%, alongside a 1% fall in the Nasdaq 100, completely wiping out early-session cyclical gains as rate-sensitive megacaps faced intense liquidation pressure.IEA warns of historic oil inventory depletion despite reopening framework: In its monthly global energy report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil inventories could hit historic lows over the coming months. Although Bloomberg published a 14-point memorandum detailing a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore toll-free commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, the IEA emphasised that physical export normalisation will remain highly gradual due to steep operational bottlenecks.Trump expresses full confidence in Warsh’s rate stance: President Donald Trump reacted mildly to the Fed’s hawkish hold, telling reporters, "It’s all right, whatever”. When questioned on the growing likelihood of an additional rate hike later this year, Trump acknowledged it “could happen” but reiterated his complete confidence in the new Chair, stating he is guided by what Warsh wants to do.Key macro themes The eradication of forward guidance and return to data dependency: Chair Kevin Warsh has officially initiated a monumental regime change in the Federal Reserve’s relationship with public capital markets. By removing forward-looking linguistic roadmaps from the policy statement, the central bank has effectively blindfolded traders who rely on pre-commitment signals. Warsh’s philosophy shifts the burden of price discovery entirely back to incoming economic data. While this may minimise the Fed’s vulnerability to blind feedback loops, it introduces a structurally higher baseline of volatility across global bond and equity horizons.The friction between paper accords and physical energy reality: The crude complex is navigating a stark disconnect between geopolitical diplomatic announcements and structural supply limits. Front-month futures contracts have been aggressively extracting the war premium on the back of the newly published 14-point U.S.-Iran memorandum. However, as the IEA explicitly highlighted, a political agreement cannot instantly clear physical distribution channels. Demining delays, insurance recalibrations, and logistical constraints mean that global structural inventory depletion will worsen before an anticipated supply surplus materialises next year.Valuation compression hits richly priced public equities: The upward shift in the Fed’s median dot plot—with half of the committee now signalling that a rate hike may be required before the year concludes, has forced an abrupt recalculation of equity risk premiums. Growth and technology names, which had brushed off sticky inflation metrics under the assumption of an impending autumn easing cycle, are highly vulnerable to this "higher-for-longer" baseline adjustment. With the cost of capital remaining structurally locked at multi-decade highs, equity multiples are under organic pressure.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 slumped 1.2% to settle at 7,420, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a 507-point drop (1.0%) to finish at 51,498, reversing an intraday gain of 0.5% recorded earlier in the morning session. Small caps shared the pain, with the Russell 2000 closing down 0.7%.In today’s Asia opening session, the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recovered by 0.8% and 1.4% reinforced by the official signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal by US President Trump.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds faced steep selling pressure as rate-cut bets were unwound. US Treasury yields climbed across the curve, pushing long-duration yields higher. Driven by the hawkish shifts, the benchmark U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to an estimated 6.62%, up from 6.54% the prior day.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index caught an aggressive safe-haven bid in late New York trading following Warsh’s remarks. The euro and British pound gave up intraday gains and traded under pressure, dropping by 0.9% and 1% by the close of Wednesday’s session. The Japanese yen edged lower, remaining highly sensitive to widening yield spreads and trading near the recent intervention threshold of 160.65.Commodities: Front-month international energy contracts inched lower in line with the broader risk-off equity slide, with Brent crude futures sliding 0.9% to near $78.66/bbl despite the IEA’s warning about inventory depletion. Spot gold fell 1.7% to settle near $4,258/oz after a bearish reaction below the 20-day moving average as surging nominal yields diminished the appeal of non-yielding safe havens. Asia Pacific impact Mixed performances: The current bounce seen in the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have managed to negate the overnight weakness inflicted on US stock indices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged by 2% to another intraday record high of 71, 330. Also, another fresh high was seen on South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.7%). In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Australia’s ASX 200 underperformed, posting intraday losses of 1.7% and 0.6%.Yen remains locked near key intervention floor: The Japanese yen continues to hug the critical 160.65 level per US dollar. With the Federal Reserve signalling a sustained restrictive policy stance, wide interest-rate differentials continue to favour the greenback, keeping the Bank of Japan on high alert for spot-market smoothing operations.Regional importers absorb elevated near-term energy costs: Despite long-term optimism about the upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners are continuing to draw down costly near-term stockpiles. The IEA’s confirmation of multi-month transit bottlenecks ensures input energy constraints will linger for non-OPEC APAC economies through the summer.Top 3 events to watch today BoE Interest Rate Decision - 7.00 PM SGT (consensus: on hold at 3.75%) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100, UK GiltsUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 PM SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, short-end US TreasuriesUS Conference Board Leading Index (May) - 10:00 PM SGT (consensus: 0.1% m/m, Apr: 0.1% m/m) Impact: US stock indices, USD Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The June FOMC meeting is a communication event rather than a rate decision event. Markets fully expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the real focus on the dot plot, inflation forecasts, policy language, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference.Markets have rapidly repriced toward a higher-for-longer Fed. Fed funds futures now imply a 77% probability of a rate hike by December 2026, up sharply from 24% a month ago, despite the recent collapse in oil prices following the US-Iran interim peace agreement.A hawkish hold remains the base-case scenario. A higher dot plot, upward inflation revisions, and a less dovish policy bias would likely support the US dollar while weighing on Gold, the Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD. The 17 June 2026 FOMC is not a normal “rate decision only” event. The market already expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, so the real trading signal will come from the dot plot, economic projections, policy-statement language, and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference.Based on the latest data from CME FedWatch tool, US Fed funds futures are now pricing around 77% chance of a rate hike by December (see Fig. 1), up sharply from 24% a month earlier, despite lower oil prices since the start of the week due to US-Iran interim peace deal agreement, which means the market has already shifted from “rate-cut hope” to “higher-for-longer or even hike risk.” Fig. 1: CME FedWatch tool aggregated FOMC meeting outcome probabilities as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: CME website). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The release of the FOMCE statement, interest rate decision, and “dot” plot (economic projections) will be on 18 June, 2.00 am SGT, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2.30 am SGT.The biggest mistake would be to trade only the first 2:00 am SGT candle. The initial move can easily reverse once Warsh starts speaking at 2:30 am SGT, especially because this is his first press conference and markets are trying to understand whether he will be more hawkish, less predictable, or less willing to give forward guidance.The core market set-up The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but that does not mean the meeting is neutral. The risk is in the message.The market participants want to know four things:Will the Fed remove its previous easing bias?Will the dot plot show fewer cuts or even some hikes?Will inflation forecasts be revised higher?Will Warsh sound as if he is preparing markets for a possible hike later this year?Media outlets reported that most policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold for 2026, but some may pencil in a hike. That would be a hawkish shift from March, when the Fed was still leaning more toward eventual cuts.Hence, this makes the meeting a communication shock event, not a rate-shock event.Base case: Hawkish hold The most likely outcome is a hawkish hold.The Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% but removes language suggesting the next move is likely to be a cut. The dot plot shifts higher. Inflation projections are revised up. Warsh says policy must remain flexible and data-dependent, but does not validate market hopes for easing.This is the scenario markets are partly prepared for, but not fully. The trade reaction depends on how far the dot plot and Warsh go.Likely cross-asset reaction Asset Potential expected reaction US Dollar Index Bullish EUR/USD Bearish GBP/USD Bearish AUD/USD Bearish USD/JPY Bullish but risky, fast approaching 160.65 intervention risk level Gold Bearish WTI crude Bearish but dominated by geopolitics Dow Jones Industrial Average Bearish to choppy S&P 500 Bearish to choppy Nasdaq 100 Bearish, highest sensitivity Let’s now focus on the short-term technical charts and key levels to monitor.EUR/USD – Stalled at around the 20-day moving average Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The EUR/USD is likely one of the “cleaner” Fed trades because it is highly sensitive to US interest-rate repricing and dollar direction (the euro has the largest weight in the US Dollar Index).Watch the 1.1645/1660 short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the bearish bias; a break below 1.1575 (Tuesday, 16 June low) reinforces a potential drop towards the intermediate supports of 1.1554 and 1.1510 (minor range bottom of 8 June/12 June 2026) (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 1.1660 would invalidate the bearish tone and extend the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 1.1685 and 1.1720.AUD/USD – Potential bearish reversal below 20-day moving average Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. AUD/USD is probably the best high-beta FX expression of a hawkish Fed. The Australian dollar tends to weaken when US Treasury yields rise and global risk appetite wanes.On Tuesday, 16 June 2026, the RBA kept its policy cash rate on hold at 4.35% after three consecutive rate hikes, but warned that the current interest rate hike cycle may be over, which provides some form of support for the Australian dollar, but a hawkish Fed is likely to tilt the macro narrative and dominate in the near-termThe recent minor corrective rebound seen on the AUD/USD from the 11 June 2025 low area of 0.6980 is now fast approaching an inflexion level of 0.7120 (the medium-term descending trendline in place since the 13 May 2026 high and 20-day moving average.Watch the 0.7120 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential bearish reversal. Breaking below 0.70300 (close to the ex-post RBA low of 0.7042) reinforces the bearish tone and exposes the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6960/6945 in the first step (see Fig. 3).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7120 invalidate the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7140 (also the 50-day moving average), and possibly 0.7190 thereafter.Nasdaq 100 – Losing bullish momentum Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is the most rate-sensitive of the major US benchmark stock indices. If the Fed removes its easing bias and the dot plot shifts higher (implying one rate hike in 2027), the Nasdaq 00 should underperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.Monday’s monstrous gap-up rally in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), triggered by the US-Iran interim peace deal, has started to show signs of near-term bullish exhaustion below the current all-time high area of 30,728/795.Watch the 30,530 key short-term pivotal resistance, with intermediate supports at 30,015 and 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).A break below the critical 29,700 suggests that Monday’s gap-up is likely a bull trap, and the bears may gain the upper hand to push prices lower towards 29,170 and even the key medium-term support of 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).On the flipside, a break above 30,530 is likely to probe the current all-time high area of 30,728/795 (Tuesday, 16 June’s bearish reaction), and a clearance above 30,795 triggers a potential extension of the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances at 31,125 and 31,450 (Fibonacci extension). Fig. 5: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gold is the clearest expression of this FOMC. A hawkish Fed means higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and lower demand for non-yielding assets. That is usually negative for gold.The recent 8.6% minor corrective rebound of gold within its medium-term downtrend (still below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages) from the 11 June 2026 low has started to show bullish exhaustion, as evidenced by the bearish divergence condition flashed by the hourly RSI momentum indicator on Tuesday, 16 June 2026 (see Fig. 5).Watch the 4,432/466 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential bearish reversal; a break below 4,309 reinforces the bearish bias and exposes the next intermediate supports at 4,242/220 and 4,171 in the first step.On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 4,466 (also the 200-day moving average) may see a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 4,535 and 4,580. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global markets paused ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with investors reducing risk exposure before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision and updated economic projections. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%.The collapse in crude oil prices continues to reshape the macro narrative, as WTI plunged to a three-month low below US$77 per barrel on expectations of a formal US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing near-term inflation pressures.A sharp rotation is underway beneath the surface, with technology and semiconductor stocks underperforming while financials, industrials, and defensive cyclicals drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh record highs.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225’s minor bullish acceleration trend remains intact above 68,735/089 key short-term pivotal supportChart of the day - Nikkei 225’s bullish acceleration trend towards a fresh all-time high Fig. 1: Japan 225 minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The minor uptrend phase of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) remains intact since the 11 June 2026 intraday low of 62,329, supported by a renewed bullish momentum condition in the hourly RSI (see Fig. 1)Watch the 68,735/089 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias to seek out the next intermediate resistances at 70,180 and 71,790/72,735 (Fibonacci extension cluster).However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 68,089 negates the bullish tone, opening scope for a retracement to retest the next intermediate supports at 67,224 and 65,875 (also the 20-day moving average).Top macro headlines S&P 500 rally falters on eve of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut: A sweeping rally that brought equities to the edge of all-time highs paused on Tuesday, 17 June. Trading desks trimmed exposures ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision, marking newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural policy showcase. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 underperformed, down 1.9%, as technology giants led a pre-meeting corrective decline. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rallied by 0.6% to a record high, led by Goldman Sachs (+1.35%) and Caterpillar (+1.24%).Crude oil plunges to 3-month low as Strait of Hormuz reopening nears: Energy markets faced a massive liquidation amid heightened expectations of a finalised peace accord between Washington and Tehran. Brent crude broke down below $80 to close at $79.33/bbl, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plummeted by 5.6% to settle at $76.61/bbl, marking a fresh 3-month low as the world prepares for the formal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.SpaceX post-IPO Surge extends to $2.66 trillion to threaten tech giants: Highlighting robust speculative appetite, shares of Elon Musk’s rocket company extended their post-IPO rally. SpaceX surged more than 8% in intraday heavy trading, before settling at a gain of 4.8% on Tuesday, 16 June. The newly public firm surpassed Amazon.com Inc. as the world’s fifth-largest company, with a market capitalisation of $2.66 trillion, about $10 billion more than Amazon's. Underwriters additionally exercised their greenshoe option, inflating total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion.US housing construction activity slides to lowest volume since pandemic: Reflecting ongoing macro headwinds in the domestic real estate space, US housing starts plummeted a sharp 15.4% m/m. The housing indicator fell below the consensus projection of -2% to its lowest level since May 2020.Key macro themes The Fed’s critical crossroads in forward guidance: The global macro landscape is pinned entirely on the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing a near-certain probability that rates will remain paused at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the true focus remains on Kevin Warsh’s upcoming press conference and the updated summary of economic projections. Most economists expect the median dot plot to reflect an upward revision in inflation metrics alongside a drop in the committee’s traditional easing bias. Any hawkish baseline shift by Chair Warsh’s press conference could drastically redefine the global cost of capital heading into the second half of 2026.Extraction of the war premium and global supply chain recovery: With hundreds of stranded tankers preparing to move through the Persian Gulf following the preliminary US-Iran peace breakthrough, the deflation of the global energy crunch is rapidly filtering into cross-asset assets. While it will take months for infrastructure and shipping schedules to fully optimise, front-month futures are fast-tracking the extraction of the conflict premium. This supply shock reversal provides central banks with significant breathing room regarding headline price metrics but triggers immediate asset allocation out of defensive resource equities and back into cyclical growth.China’s domestic bifurcation and industrial divergence: Macro numbers from the Asia-Pacific region reveal a severe disconnect within the Chinese economy. On one hand, domestic consumption remains deeply damaged, with retail sales contracting 0.6% y/y in May, underperforming consensus estimates. Conversely, industrial production maintained its robust growth trajectory at 4.5% y/y in May (above consensus of 4.3%), supercharged by massive state-level investments in 3D printing, lithium-ion networks, and advanced industrial robots. This bifurcation suggests persistent weak domestic demand, while state resources are being channelled to the external sector.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.9% on profit-taking across mega-cap tech and semiconductors (SOX - 5.7%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to lead US indices toward a record high, boosted by a powerful defensive rotation into cyclical and financials. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched higher by 0.3% to a record high.Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields dropped as tumbling crude oil prices eased long-term inflation fears. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.44%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield slipped to 2.94%, almost a one-month low, while Britain’s 10-year Gilt yield held near 4.81%.FX: The US Dollar Index remained little changed. The euro ticked up 0.2% to trade at $1.1608, while the British pound hovered at $1.3427, inching up slightly above its 20-day moving average. The Japanese yen weakened slightly to 160.47 per US dollar near the prior critical intervention level of 160.65, following BoJ’s decision to end its JGBs tapering programme from April 2027.Commodities: WTI crude oil fell 5.6% to settle at $76.61/bbl, and Brent fell below $80 on Persian Gulf de-escalation. Precious metals gained a modest lift from declining sovereign bond yields, with spot gold climbing 0.5% to settle at $4,331/oz but still below the 20-day moving average ($4,395/oz).Asia Pacific impact Mixed performances in Asian equities on shifting factors: Asia-Pacific equity bourses mixed in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied by 0.4%, looking to set another fresh all-time high milestone at 70,000 on the backdrop of a restrained 10-year JGB yield at 2.62% (below its 30-year high of 2.81% printed in May 2026). Profit-taking was seen in semiconductor- and technology-heavy South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX, with intraday losses of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the defence-oriented Singapore’s STI soared to 0.8% towards a new intraday record high of 5,160.Aussie dollar supported by RBA hawkish hold: The Australian Dollar whipsawed and ended Tuesday’s session almost unchanged at 0.7067 against the greenback as market participants digested RBA Governor Bullock’s “hawkish cautious” messaging, with the possibility of further monetary policy tightening in Australia if inflation pressures resurface.Top 5 events to watch today UK Core Inflation Rate (May) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Apr: 2.5% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, UK Gilts, FTSE 100US Retail Sales (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 0.5% m/m, Apr: 0.5% m/m) Impact: USD, US stock indices, short-term US TreasuriesEIA Weekly Stockpile Change - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crudeFed Interest Rate Decision & Economic Projections - 2:00 am SGT, Thursday Impact: All asset classesFed Press Conference - 2.30 am SGT, Thursday Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways SpaceX’s historic US$75 billion IPO marks a major milestone for global equity markets, with the company debuting at a valuation approaching US$1.8 trillion and positioning itself as a future top-weight constituent of the Nasdaq 100.Despite overwhelming investor demand and heavy oversubscription, the SpaceX grey market remains technically fragile, with the SPCX/USDT perpetual contract still trading within a medium-term descending channel since its launch in May.The technical outlook hinges on two critical levels: a break below US$161.00 may trigger a deeper correction towards US$147.07 and US$138.36, while a sustained move above US$187.60 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door towards US$205.10 and US$212.70. Today, 12 June 2026, marks a historic watershed moment for global stock markets as Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) makes its highly anticipated debut on the Nasdaq. Priced at $135 per share to raise a record-breaking $75 billion, the offering values the interlocking aerospace, Starlink connectivity, and xAI business at an eye-watering $1.78 trillion to $1.8 trillion.In addition, Nasdaq has also overhauled its inclusion rules for listed companies to be included in the Nasdaq 100 benchmark index. Since 1 May 2026, it has allowed the top 40 companies by market cap (roughly $100 billion or more) to fast-track into the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 days.SpaceX is set to be part of the Nasdaq 100 and a risk appetite driver Hence, SpaceX is likely to be one of the top 10 component stocks of the Nasdaq 100 by mid-July 2026, and thereafter potentially impacting the price movements of the Nasdaq 100 in line with passive flows via exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq 100.While the offering is heavily oversubscribed (3x to 4x, drawing over $250 billion in orders), market participants and traders will be observing in the next four weeks the performance of SPCX, given that it is the largest IPO offering in the world so far, plus its high-growth revenue drivers from space exploration and Starlink satellites connectivity can have a significant impact on risk appetite for the broader market.Interestingly, we can look at the grey market for SpaceX, which is trading right now via perpetual contracts listed on crypto exchanges, to decipher the potential short-term trend of SPCX via technical analysis.SPCX/USDT has morphed into a medium-term bearish trend Fig. 1: SPCX/USDT medium-term trend as of 12 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Binance listed its crypto derivative, SPCX/USDT (settled in Tether), pre-IPO Perpetual Contract on 21 May 2026. It spiked up to hit a high of $224.47 on the first day of trading and thereafter plummeted by 31% to print a current all-time low of $154.83 on Wednesday, 10 June 2026, before it rebounded to trade at a current intraday level of $173.56 on this time of writing (it represents a gain of 28% from its IPO price of $135) (see Fig. 1).However, the trend of SPCX/USDT has been bearish since its launch on 21 May, as price action continues to oscillate within a descending channel, suggesting SPCX may enter a downward spiral over the next four weeks.Watch the 187.60 pivotal resistance to maintain the potential medium-term/multi-week bearish trend of SPCX/USDT. A break below the recent range support of 161.00 may expose the next medium-term supports at 147.07 and 138.36 (defined by Fibonacci extensions).On the flip side, a clearance above 187.60 invalidates the bearish tone and could kickstart a bullish impulsive up-move sequence towards the next medium-term resistances at 205.10 and 212.70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD/JPY remains supported by a widening US-Japan yield differential. Markets are increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan appears likely to slow or pause its bond tapering programme despite an expected rate increase next week.The pair is approaching a key intervention zone near 160.40–160.70. Japanese authorities have already spent a record amount defending the yen earlier this year, making this area a critical level where renewed verbal or direct intervention risks may emerge.Technical momentum remains constructive in the near term. USD/JPY continues to trade within both a medium-term ascending wedge and a shorter-term rising channel, with momentum indicators remaining supportive of a further advance toward the 160.65, 161.14/20, and 161.60/95 resistance levels.The US CPI shock and a hawkish Fed The market enters today’s US CPI print, facing building macro headwinds and energy shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Following a complete evaporation of Fed rate-cut bets for 2026, the market is aggressively positioned for a bear-flattening yield curve environment under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With futures now pricing in a 61% probability of a 25-bps hike in October, an upside surprise in today’s CPI, potentially pushing inflation to multi-year highs, will solidify the higher-for-longer regime and maintain structural upward pressure on the greenback.BoJ’s balancing act - The June rate hike vs. bond taper pause Next week (June 15-16), the Bank of Japan is widely expected to shift its narrative toward becoming an active “inflation fighter”. Aggregated polls show nearly 94% of economists expect Governor Ueda to deliver a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995. This hawkish tilt is directly responsive to the persistent inflationary impulses generated by the US-Iran war.Crucially, to mitigate political friction with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and stabilise a volatile sovereign bond market where the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has recently hit a 30-year high of 2.8%, the BoJ is leaning towards pausing or slowing its bond-purchase taper next fiscal year.By freezing further monthly purchase reductions (potentially keeping them steady near 2.1 trillion yen), the central bank hopes to cap the blowout of debt-servicing costs before yields breach the painful 3% threshold.The 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread is widening Fig. 1: 2-YR & 10-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spreads as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The shorter-term yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has started to widen since hitting a 4-year low of 2.12% earlier in February 2026, which is also just a whisker above a major support of 2.05% (see Fig. 1).The spread of the 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield has rebounded by 60 basis points to 2.72% as of Wednesday, 9 June 2026, which implies that the US Federal Reserve is adopting a more hawkish monetary policy stance over the Bank of Japan, in turn putting downside pressure on the Japanese yen as it flirts around the prior intervention area of 160.40/70, where Vice Finance Minister Mimura, in charge of foreign exchange issued a “final verbal warning” to speculators on 30 April 2026 before actual intervention took place on the same day.Japanese authorities have spent a record $ 74.1 billion in the latest round of FX intervention to buy yen between 30 April 2026 and 6 May 2026, according to Finance Ministry data.Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Grinding up towards “Ascending Wedge” upper boundary at 160.60/95 Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Minor uptrend with key short-term support pivotal at 159.75.Resistances: 160.65 (30 Apr 2026 high), 161.14/20 (4/9 Jul 2024 congestion & Fibonacci extension), 161.60/95 (long-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).Next supports: 159.45 (1/3 Jun 2026 congestion & 20-day MA), 159.10 (29 May 2026 low), 158.80 (21/25 May 2026 low & 50-day MA).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on USD/JPY Price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” configuration since the 27 January 2026 low, with its upper boundary coming in at 161.60/95 (see Fig.2).The recent minor uptrend phase remains intact, as price action in USD/JPY continues to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place from the 29 May 2026 low at 159.10 (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains short-term bullish, holding above the 50 level (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Technology stocks staged a strong rebound, led by semiconductor shares such as Intel and Micron, helping the Nasdaq 100 recover 1.6% despite weak overall market breadth and continued pressure on non-tech sectors.Middle East tensions remain a key market driver, but a temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped cap oil price gains, reducing immediate inflation fears and supporting risk sentiment.Investors remain focused on higher interest rates and liquidity risks in mega-IPOs, with Treasury yields remaining elevated as upcoming listings such as SpaceX continue to raise questions about capital allocation across global equity markets.Chart of the day: AUD/USD’s rebound from Monday looks like a “dead cat bounce”. Watch the 0.7085/710 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - AUD/USD struggled below 20-day and 50-day moving averages Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor trend as of 9 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 0.7% rebound in AUD/USD from Monday’s Asian session intraday low of 0.7024 has been lacklustre. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below its descending resistance at around 58 (see Fig. 1).These observations warrant caution that Monday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce” within a bearish structure that has been unfolding since the bearish break below the 50-day moving average on last Friday, 5 June 2026.Watch the 0.7085/7100 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 0.7024 near-term support opens scope for potential weakness towards the next immediate supports at 0.7008/0.6995 and 0.6960/6945.On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a squeeze up to retest the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which converge at the next intermediate resistance of 0.7120 and 0.7153.Top macro headlines Dip buyers unleash historic chip rally: Following a brutal selloff that saw global tech benchmarks routed late last week, dip buyers returned to Wall Street in force. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6%, and the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% to close above 7,405, powered by a massive 5.6% to 6.5% resurgence of semiconductor giants like Micron Technology and Intel Corp. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 0.2%.Trump ceasefire call caps geopolitical oil surge: Crude oil sharply pared its early 4% weekend gains after a tenuous, temporary ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Iran. While Israel hit petrochemical targets in southwestern Iran over the weekend, Reuters reported that both sides subsequently lifted flight and movement restrictions, signalling a tentative pause in direct hostilities.SpaceX counts down to historic $75 Billion IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to raise $75 billion by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The historic listing, scheduled for this Friday, skips typical bookbuilding price ranges due to massive pre-IPO institutional demand, commanding a fully diluted valuation of $1.77 trillion.Fed hike fears soften on wage metrics: While a massive 172,000 nonfarm payroll expansion on Friday initially stoked hawkish monetary fears, institutional desks spent the session reassessing the data. Wall Street sentiment turned positive as analysts noted a cooling trend in underlying wage growth, prompting banks to downplay the imminent risk of an October Fed rate hike.'Sell Indonesia’ sweeps regional trading desks: Concerns over interventionist economic management and confusion regarding new commodity export rules have sent Indonesian assets into a spiral. Just five months after hitting a record high, the benchmark Jakarta stock index plunged, bringing its total decline to 36% and making it the worst-performing global index in 2026, while the rupiah collapsed to a new low of 18,180 against the dollar.Key macro themes A healthy reset in crowded tech allocations: Wall Street’s leading strategists messaged that last week’s deep pullback was an essential positioning reset rather than a structural market top. Citigroup aggressively raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 (a gain of around 9% from Monday’s S&P 500 closing level of 7.405), citing a significant step-up in corporate earnings power that will absorb upcoming mega-cap tech issuance, such as SpaceX and Anthropic.Cool reception for conceptual AI updates: Despite the broader chip sector’s explosive rebound, consumer tech companies bucked the trend. Apple Inc. shares slid 1.9% after investors gave a decidedly cool reception to the firm’s showcase of its next-generation AI platform, underscoring that markets are increasingly demanding immediate, quantifiable monetisation over product updates.Sovereign debt yield resurgence: As geopolitical alarms shifted to a low simmer in the Middle East, the safe-haven premium began draining from global bonds. Fixed-income yields remained anchored near multi-month highs, with global allocators bracing for massive upcoming government note auctions amid a structurally higher cost of capital.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to settle at 7,405.73, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%. But market breadth was weak, with only 3 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors recording gains: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5 %). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1% due to its lower semiconductor weighting.Fixed Income: Yields pressed higher on hawkish central bank expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced to settle near 4.57%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 3.06%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield rose four basis points to 4.94%.FX: The US Dollar Index lost its safe-haven traction, falling slightly by 0.1%. The euro caught a minor bid, hovering at $1.1538, while the British pound rested at $1.3350. The Japanese yen stabilised at around 160.20 per dollar.Commodities: WTI crude finished up 1% on Monday to trade near $91.27/bbl, and Brent crude rose to trade near $94.10/bbl, both closing well below their early peaks. Spot gold clawed back a modest 0.05% to trade at $4,330/oz, hovering just above a near-term support of $4,250/oz.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets under pressure: Before the New York tech rebound materialised, regional indices bore the brunt of global tech contagion. South Korea’s KOSPI index was severely damaged, falling by a staggering 5.5% on Friday as options market liquidations triggered a deep regional equity-clearing event. In today’s Asia opening session, technical rebounds have materialised, Nikkei 225 (+3.6%), KOSPI (+3.6%), CSI 300 (+0.3%), and STI (+0.9%).Rupiah trapped in historic lows: The Indonesian rupiah weakened about 7% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia in 2026, and fell further to a low of 18,180 against the US dollar, forcing emergency central bank smoothing interventions.BOJ intervention floor monitored: The Japanese yen remains deeply pinned against the greenback at around 160.20. The Bank of Japan remains on maximum alert for direct spot-market intervention as wide yield differentials continue to structurally favour the U.S. dollar.Top 3 events to watch today Germany Balance of Trade (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Existing Home Sales (May) - 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.06M, Apr: 4.02M) Impact: USD, US stock indicesECB President Lagarde Speech - 10 Jun, 12.30 am SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AI-driven equities face their biggest setback in months. A sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology stocks, triggered by valuation concerns and disappointing guidance from key AI-related companies, has halted the nine-week Wall Street rally and raised questions about the sustainability of the AI super cycle.Middle East tensions have reignited energy market risks. Fresh Iran-Israel hostilities pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns over global energy supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary pressures across major economies.Strong US labour data has revived expectations of a Fed rate hike. A significantly stronger-than-expected US payrolls report has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving Treasury yields higher, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global financial conditions.Chart of the day: WTI crude gapped up and rebounded from minor ascending channel support at $91.40/bbl.Chart of the day – WTI crude erased last Friday’s losses Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 8 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) gapped up by 3.3% in today’s Asia opening session to trade at $95.10 per barrel at this time of writing, erasing last Friday’s loss of 3%.Near-term technicals have flipped bullish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator exited oversold territory and broke out above its former descending resistance.Watch the 91.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 95.45 would see the intermediate resistance at 100.00 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) in the first step.However, a break and an hourly close below 91.40 would signal a retest of the 29 May 2026 minor swing low at 89.00. Below it extends losses towards the next intermediate support at 85.50Top macro headlines Tech deflates in brutal Wall Street reversal: Wall Street’s historic nine-week winning streak ground to a violent halt on Friday as a massive tech-led selloff intensified. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 4.8%, and a broad gauge of chipmakers tumbled 10% in its worst single-session routing in months, as growing anxiety over AI overvaluation triggered widespread institutional profit-taking.Geopolitical escalation as Iran fires on Israel: Middle East tensions exploded over the weekend. Following an Israeli strike on Beirut, Iran directed a massive salvo of missiles targeting Israeli territory. WTI and Brent crude futures immediately spiked 2.8% to hit at $92.70 and $95.40 a barrel in today’s Asia opening session, though gains moderated slightly after President Trump said the flare-up would not derail the overarching regional peace framework negotiations.Hot US jobs report shifts Fed target: The US labour market showed unexpected, robust resilience, with May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 positions, shattering the consensus forecast of 85,000. While the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the red-hot hiring numbers prompted Fed funds futures traders to immediately price in a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as October 2026.Key macro themes The Great AI narrative fray: The unyielding “AI-drives-everything” bull market faced its harshest reality check over the weekend. A combination of hot macroeconomic data and localised tech earnings disappointment (e.g., Broadcom) has investors fiercely debating whether the current AI market cap demands a tactical correction, particularly as blockbuster private listings such as SpaceX threaten to drain liquidity from broader equity markets.The Mega-IPO liquidity drain: Wall Street trading desks are highly anxious over an unprecedented wave of massive capital calls coming to market. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has locked in a fixed $135/share price targeting a record-shattering $75 billion public raise this week, while generative AI giant Anthropic just filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a near 1$ trillion valuation. Capital allocators are actively selling existing liquid equities to free up space for these generational private tech entries.Sovereign bond yield resurgence: The combination of an inflationary energy supply shock and an unrelenting US jobs landscape has completely crushed any remaining expectations for central bank rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields surged 10 basis points on Friday to 4.15%, signalling a profound multi-month repricing of global cost of capital.Global markets impact Equities: S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% in early Asian trade before easing towards a slight gain of 0.01% and 0.35%, after Friday’s steep losses, where the S&P 500 sank 2.6%. The medium-term uptrend, which began late March 2026, has officially stalled. Fixed Income: US Treasuries tumbled; two-year yields closed Friday up 10 bps to 4.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield extended its gains by another 4 bps t0 4.57% in early Monday trading, maintaining immense upward pressure.FX: The US Dollar Index gained aggressively against all G-10 peers on a cocktail of safe-haven flows and the hawkish Fed rate adjustment. The Euro flattened out at $1.1519, a 2-month low, while the British Pound hovered defensively at $1.3317, near a 1-month low. In addition, the AUD tumbled to around a 2-month low of 0.7022, and the JPY grinded lower towards the recent intervention zone of 160.45/65 per US dollar.Commodities: Brent crude gapped higher by 2.8% to trade at $95.40/bbl on the back of Iranian missile deployment. Spot Gold extended its losses from Friday, slipping to $4,315/oz as expectations of higher-for-longer global interest rates diminished its non-yielding appeal. Asia Pacific Impact Regional AI stocks routed: Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks bore the brunt of global tech contagion on Monday morning. South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s top-performing gauge this year due to its exposure to memory and AI chips, tumbled 5.5% on Friday and opened 7% lower today. The Nikkei 225 also posted steep losses of 5%. Blood baths are seen in other Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices: Hang Seng Index (-1.7%), China A50 (-1.6%), CSI 300 (-2.4%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-1.4%).Currency interventions in play: The South Korean won slid to its weakest valuation framework since 2009 to an intraday high of 1,559 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, forcing the Seoul government to deploy an emergency series of curbs to support the currency. The Japanese Yen also remains deeply pinned, trading weakly at 160.30 per US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan intervention flags fully raised.Trade sentiment frozen: Early regional performance is further muted by traders waiting on major Chinese trade balance data later this week, as regional supply chains undergo structural realignment and linger amid lingering tariff anxieties.Top 2 events to watch today New York Fed 1-YR Inflation Expectations (May) – 11.00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Dow Jones Industrial Average is showing increasing signs of relative weakness, underperforming major US equity benchmarks since the March 2026 market recovery and now facing a potential bearish reversal after breaking below a key ascending channel support.Renewed US-Iran geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and a hawkish repricing of Federal Reserve policy have tightened financial conditions, creating headwinds for cyclical sectors that dominate the Dow Jones.A bear-flattening US Treasury yield curve is raising concerns about bank profitability and financial-sector performance, particularly given Financials’ large weighting in the DJIA. Following up on our earlier structural concerns regarding narrow market breadth and the underlying vulnerabilities of traditional cyclical sectors, on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, price action offered a stark confirmation.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) posted a significant pullback, dropping 1.21% to close at 50,692. Notably, the index opened near its high of 51,220.92 and steadily ground lower throughout the day, closing exactly on the session lows.So far, since the start of the current medium-term bullish trend on 30 March 2026, the DJIA has remained the underperformer among its peers despite hitting a recent fresh all-time high earlier this week with a gain of just 12.1% versus the S&P 500 (+19.1%), small-cap Russell 2000 (+19.9%), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+33.2%) (see. Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Dow Jones (DJIA) & other major US stock indices performance from 30 Mar 2026 to 3 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Geopolitical risks, rising yields, and bear flattening on the yield curve Fig. 2: US Treasury yield curve (10-YR -2-YR) with US Wall Street 30 CFD as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The primary catalyst for this aggressive risk-off rotation was an escalation in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Fresh threats to the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, alongside reports of launched or attempted retaliatory strikes, sent shockwaves through risk assets.This geopolitical premium immediately bid up the energy complex, with both WTI and Brent crude jumping by around2%.Adding fuel to the fire, the US Treasury market resumed its hawkish repricing. The rising expectations of a more hawkish Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh have been putting sustained upward pressure on yields.Yesterday, Treasury yields climbed once again, placing a heavier discount rate on equities and tightening financial conditions further.In addition, the hawkish repricing has pushed the 2-year US Treasury yield up by 40 basis points since mid-April 2026, outpacing the 10-year yield and resulting in a bear-flattening of the yield curve (see Fig. 2).Bear flattening typically signals tighter financial conditions, which pressure bank profitability and, in turn, create a negative feedback loop in the DJIA, as the Financials sector carries the largest weight of around 27%.Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the DJIA from a technical analysis perspective.Dow Jones (DJIA) – Broke below minor ascending channel support Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 51,075 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 50,541/390 (former all-time high area of 10 February 2026), 50,107 (also close to the 20-day moving average), 49,780 (former minor highs of 18 May/19 May 2026).Next resistances: 51,320/390 (current all-time high area), 51,566/654 (Fibonacci extension cluster), 51,930/955 (Fibonacci extension).Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD has broken below its minor ascending channel support from the 20 May 2026 low, putting the near-term bullish trend in jeopardy.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has flashed a bearish divergence signal. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Bitcoin plunged 16% over the past two weeks and briefly fell below the US$70,000 psychological level after MicroStrategy’s partial Bitcoin sale shattered the long-standing “never sell” narrative that had supported market sentiment.Despite the sharp decline, several contrarian indicators suggest selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, including an extremely oversold daily RSI reading, a surge in long-position liquidations, and signs of renewed accumulation by long-term holders.Technical and on-chain metrics indicate the potential for a near-term bullish reversal above the key US$62,250 support level, with upside targets at US$74,880 and US$82,815 if buying momentum returns. Let’s unpack the primary drivers and the technical setup.The plunge and its fundamental catalysts On Monday and Tuesday (1–2 June 2026), the cryptocurrency market absorbed a significant psychological blow. Spot BTC/USD tumbled sharply, slipping below the $70,000 psychological threshold and falling 16% over the past two weeks. It printed an intraday low of $65,370 on Wednesday, 3 June 2026.The dominant driver of this week’s movement was the revelation that MicroStrategy, the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, sold a portion of its holdings for the first time in four years.While the market impact is less about the absolute volume of the sale and more about the erosion of consensus, it effectively shattered founder Michael Saylor’s widely echoed “never sell” iron law.This pivot disrupted the pricing anchor the market had historically relied on, injecting uncertainty and triggering a wave of defensive selling.Technical and on-chain analysis suggesting a setup for a bullish reversal Fig. 1: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) medium-term trend as of 3 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 16% plunge in BTC/USD has left it hovering just above its $62,250 key medium-term pivotal support and the lower boundary of its long-term secular ascending channel running from the December 2018 low.In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator hit a significant oversold level of 21.8 on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, its lowest since 5 February 2026, triggering a 35% rally in BTC/USD over the next three months.Secondly, utilising TradingView’s crypto derivatives indicators for crypto futures and perpetual swaps, such as from Bybit, Binance, and OKX.Aggregated long liquidation data (derived from various exchanges) spiked to $482 million on Tuesday, 2 June 2026, indicating that many leveraged long positions in Bitcoin futures and perpetual swaps were forced closed due to margin calls.A similar rise in long liquidations ($481 million) also occurred on 5 February 2026, when capitulation led to a 35% rally in BTC/USD.Thirdly, on-chain indicator: the percentage of 1-year active supply for Bitcoin has declined steadily over the past three weeks, from 40.3% on 23 April 2026 to 39.3% on Wednesday, 3 June 2026, at the time of writing.Active supply 1-year measures the total number of unique cryptocurrency units that have moved at least once over the past 1 year. This metric tracks the portion of supply that has been involved in on-chain transactions during the trailing 365-day period.A decreasing active supply often signals accumulation by long-term holders, a bullish condition for Bitcoin in the current context.Hence, based on these factors, BTC/USD is now ripe for a potential near-term bullish reversal above the $62,250 key medium-term support, with intermediate resistance at $74,880. A clearance above it would signal a retest of the $82,815 medium-term resistance (also close to the 200-day moving average).On the other hand, a daily close below $62,250 invalidates the recovery scenario and extends the corrective decline towards the $57,590/52,590 long-term pivotal support zone. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities pushed to fresh record highs as investor enthusiasm broadened beyond mega-cap technology stocks into small-cap industrial, energy, and infrastructure companies benefiting from the ongoing AI investment boom.Strong labour market data and rising inflation pressures in both the U.S. and Eurozone reinforced expectations of a more hawkish global monetary policy environment, with markets increasingly pricing additional tightening from the ECB and Federal Reserve.Capital intensity within the AI supercycle is becoming a key market theme, highlighted by Alphabet’s US$80 billion equity raise to finance expanding AI infrastructure spending, raising questions about long-term capital efficiency and balance-sheet sustainability.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend remains intact above 30,245 key short-term support.Top macro headlines World Stocks hit historic peaks amid calm geopolitics: Major global equity indexes, including the S&P 500, MSCI All Country, MSCI Emerging Markets, and MSCI Asia ex-Japan, advanced to brand-new record highs on Tuesday. The broad rally was underpinned by a general calm across fixed-income and currency desks, alongside a lack of major shifts in U.S.-Iran border tensions.Alphabet stuns markets with unprecedented $80 billion equity capital raise: Google’s parent entity, Alphabet, shocked Wall Street by announcing an $80 billion equity financing program to back its staggering AI capital expenditures, which are projected to reach $200 billion this year. Legendary holding firm Berkshire Hathaway has already committed a major $10 billion block to the capital raise.U.S. JOLTS job openings surge to two-year peak: Economic indicators released on Tuesday revealed that U.S. job openings for April jumped to their highest absolute level in two years, led by a massive concentration in professional and business services. This rapid pace represents the quickest sequential expansion in five years, signalling robust labour demand.Eurozone inflation scales 3% handle in May, securing ECB June hike: Driven by structural forces, Eurozone headline consumer price inflation crossed the 3% y/y barrier for the first time since September 2023. Core inflation also rose higher to 2.5% y/y from 2.2% in April. These hot prints have effectively locked in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at next week’s ECB policy meeting, with traders pricing an additional 50 bps of tightening by year-end.Key macro themes The small-cap rotational AI capital drift: While multi-trillion dollar megacap behemoths capture mainstream headlines, an underlying structural rotation is developing. Tech and energy small caps are outperforming as critical components of the physical "picks and shovels” layer of the global AI buildout, allowing them to monetise large capex budgets away from over-concentrated tech heavyweights.Megacap liquidity demands & balance sheet fatigue: Alphabet’s massive $80 billion capital raise highlights growing cash demands among AI players. Despite boasting $126 billion in cash at the end of Q1, Alphabet’s massive capex burn rate, paired with $85 billion in fresh debt issuance over the past year, is prompting concerns over long-term capital efficiency.Sovereign monetary policy conundrums: Central banks globally are entering a synchronised tightening regime to squash persistent price pressures. With Eurozone inflation hot, the ECB is set to follow the G10 rate-hiking cohorts of Australia and Norway. Markets are subsequently pricing in a faster policy-tightening timeline from the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 closed higher at fresh peaks with seven out of 11 sectors advancing, led by Utilities (+1.9%), Materials (+1.2%), and Industrials (+1%). Small-caps and non-tech cyclicals dramatically outperformed, while European bourses rallied 0.8% and the UK FTSE added 0.3%.Fixed Income: Global sovereign bonds enjoyed a rare relief bid. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve rallied, dropping yields by 3 basis points. Japan’s 10-year JGB yield plunged a massive 11 basis points following a highly successful auction, registering its steepest single-day drop since April 2023.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index continued to trade within a minor range between 99.50 and 98.90, while the USD/JPY inched higher towards the critical 160.00 intervention threshold, keeping Japanese authorities on high alert. Conversely, digital safe havens buckled, with Bitcoin sliding 6% to break toward $66,000, printing an intraday low of $65,370 in today’s Asia opening session.Commodities: Energy markets firmed modestly, with crude oil contracts adding 1% amid uncertainty over an interim US-Iran peace deal. Precious metals stabilised, with spot gold holding steady near $4,484/oz as investors balanced sticky global yields with Middle East headlines, but remained capped below its 20-day moving average at $4,580. Asia Pacific impact Stock indices surge to records: Mirroring global risk-on transitions, regional bourses posted strong sessions. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to an all-time record, building on Monday’s massive 4.0% single-session explosion in South Korea. In today’s Asia opening session, rotation has been seen among Hong Kong shares and China’s “A” shares. The Hang Seng Index slid -1.7% intraday, while China A 50 and the broader CSI 300 index rose around 1.5% each. The outperformance of China “A” shares has been driven by an expansion in service activities, as the RatingDog Services PMI rose to 54.4 in May from 52.6 in the prior month.Japanese bond volatility: The 11 bps collapse in the 10-year JGB yield has significantly adjusted near-term domestic yields. However, markets remain tightly focused on the Bank of Japan's upcoming policy meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to signal a clear path for interest rate normalisation and tapering.Chinese energy inventories: Highlighting real-world supply shifts, data show that China is aggressively drawing down its domestic onshore crude stockpiles to replace regular oil imports, which have plunged to a 10-year absolute low due to high international costs.Top 3 events to watch today BoJ Governor Ueda Speech - 4.30 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, short-term JGBs, Nikkei 225US ADP Employment Change (May) - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: +117K, Apr: +109K) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldUS ISM Services PMI (May) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 53.8, Apr: 53.6) Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 remains entrenched in an ascending channel Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 3 Jun 2026 (Source: Trading View). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 19 May 2026 low at 28,588.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator remains in a healthy bullish momentum condition (above the 60 level).These observations suggest its minor uptrend phase remains intact. Watch the 30,245 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 30,245 would negate the bullish tone, signalling a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 30,000 and even 29,700 (close to the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Hey traders, a more personal note in my final contribution to MarketPulse.The charts and price action come before the narrative Trading can be quite chaotic and confusing, particularly when the world seems like its burning every day.Some headlines come and sound Market changing, but it turns out that everything is priced in and nothing changed – One of my favorite X poster, Conksresearch (a great follow for good content and laughs), will always say – Nothing ever really changes.So the lesson here is not to get lost in the narratives, and try to be critical on if a news is really regime changing or not.Sometimes a news will be regime changing, hence, it is important to stay nimble and flexible.At the end of the day, traders should always be concerned about two things, paying their bills and surviving in the game. The best thing that allows traders to do this is to actually follow the charts and not the narratives or their own biases (the best traders spend a lifelong adventure trying to avoid doing so).Watch out for your sources, follow the right people but most importantly, make your own judgment and question your biases! InvestingLive.com is a great resource to consult when you don't know where to look.Trading is a long-term journey Never underestimate the long-run – Ups and downs in trading are extremely common, but the best traders always made sure to survive long enough throughout these downs to eventually succeed.Despite all the promises from the gurus driving Lamborghinis, trading is rarely a short-term success story. Even if you do manage to become rich enough of off one trend, you have to make sure to be able to repeat this again without burning your account(s).With time, you will be able to recognize larger trends as they develop, be able to counteract your own thoughts that prevent you from doing what's right, and make sure to always protect your bread-making ability.And when you see a pattern that you have seen hundreds of time and prepared yourself to capture the opportunity, you can use the right amount of risk to juice it to the best of your abilities.Sometimes, months of struggles can be erased in a few good trades or days, so it is important to survive to be able to meet these opportunities – Hence the importance of not burning your accounts before doing so. Size is one of the most important element in this aspect – You should read Best Loser Wins by Tom Hougaard (legendary trader who always made his work public and free) as it covers a lot of the traders' psychology in that aspect.Trading and Timing As John Keynes said, one of my favorite quotes: "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."As humans, we tend to have a very strong instinct of when things are wrong.But in Markets, overconfidence, algorithms, stop losses and positioning can extend an unsustainable trend for much longer than most can imagine.Still, this is more of an opportunity for traders than a flaw – Participating in extreme trends, like the ones seen in Stock Markets, can generate very strong trading signals.Trends are strong when they actually arrive, so fading them can be costly.When they break, of course, you will also have to have your own sets of rules to be able to not fall in a large trap.This comes back to timing: Make sure to respect the Market when it tells you something. If you're not comfortable with a trend, don't force it – there will be thousands of new trends to capture.And when things change, be ready to change your mindset with the new flows.Don't forget to take a step back We tend to be obsessed by the short-term while forgetting the longer-run.The only thing that I will mention here is to check out Weekly charts (at least once or twice a month) and Monthly charts (2-3 times per year) for you to see if any large divergence is occurring, so you can prepare yourself in the event of a large change.This can also help you to spot trends you had completely failed to spot.Get familiar with your game, but don't forget to innovate Success in trading is often found by those who think differently than the masses – Get familiar with your process, make sure it is consistent, strong, and sustainable, but most importantly, don't forget to question things and innovate to make sure to always be ahead of the pack.For those looking for a great website to visualize Markets – Check out Finviz!This was my final piece for MarketPulse. Thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs after the US and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire, boosting risk appetite and driving strong gains in technology and AI-related stocks.Hotter-than-expected US core PCE inflation at 3.3% y/y reinforced the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative, further reducing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.AI infrastructure and enterprise technology spending remain the dominant market driver, with blockbuster developments from Anthropic, Snowflake, Amazon, and Dell reinforcing the ongoing AI capex supercycle despite growing concerns over potential overcapacity.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor bullish trend intact, en route to another potential fresh all-time high at 30,728/795 with key short-term support at 29,700.Top macro headlines US and Iran agree to extend ceasefire: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq bounced back to hit fresh record highs on Thursday after the United States and Iran officially agreed to extend their ceasefire. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that a permanent agreement to completely wind down the three-month-old war is within reach, provided Iran satisfies key conditions, including uranium disposal and fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.US core PCE inflation jumps to 3.3% y/y, creating policy “wedge”: The Bureau of Economic Analysis released April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, revealing that headline PCE inflation rose to 3.8% y/y (up from 3.5% in March). More critically, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) climbed to 3.3% y/y, creating a rare inflationary "wedge" by running significantly hotter than core CPI (2.8% y/y), further squashing hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Anthropic secures staggering $965 Billion valuation: Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic closed a massive $65 billion funding round, vaulting its private valuation to $965 billion and rocketing past OpenAI. The firm is tracking to hit a $50 billion annualized revenue run-rate next month after Q1 sales expanded 80-fold.Snowflake inks $6B Amazon deal as tech earnings explode: Defying fears that AI automation would kill traditional enterprise software providers, Snowflake surged up to 35% after signing a landmark $6 billion deal with Amazon and upgrading its full-year sales forecast. Concurrently, Dell Technologies skyrocketed 40% in after-hours trading, following blowout quarterly results.Key macro themes The rare PCE-CPI inflation wedge: A significant structural challenge has emerged for newly confirmed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed's preferred price barometer, the core PCE index, has broken higher to 3.3%, creating an unusual divergence from the 2.8% CPI benchmark. Because this underlying inflation spike stems directly from the Strait of Hormuz conflict choking global energy supplies, traditional monetary policy tools are constrained, and higher interest rates cannot lower oil transit costs but run the risk of severely bruising an already slowing economy.The K-shaped bifurcation of Wall Street vs. Main Street: The latest macro data dump exposes a profound macroeconomic split. Corporate profit margins remain near record highs as companies exploit structural supply shortages and the ongoing AI capex boom to drive revenues. Conversely, Main Street consumers are under acute duress; the U.S. personal savings rate plummeted to a near-historic low of just 2.6% in April, a level eclipsed in weakness only once in the past 18 years, as soaring gas prices near $5 a gallon erode real wage growth.AI Infrastructure overcapacity skepticism: Despite record-breaking stock market indices, a distinct undercurrent of institutional skepticism is building regarding the trillions of dollars pouring into AI capital expenditures. Several portfolio managers are warning of near-term overcapacity as commercial entities experience budget fatigue; for instance, Microsoft has begun cutting internal Claude code licenses due to prohibitive costs, while Uber has already entirely exhausted its 2026 AI coding capital allocation.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street rallied forcefully, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.6% to close at 7,563, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, hitting a fresh all-time high with a gain of 0.8%. Overall, Technology (1.4%) and Healthcare (1.3%) led, while defensive sectors, Consumer Staples (-0.6%) and Utilities (-1%) underperformed. Conversely, European bourses fell, with the FTSE 100 shedding 0.7% and DAX dropping 0.3%. Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields edged lower following the extension of the Middle East truce. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by roughly 3 basis points to anchor at 4.45% as the sovereign yield curve bull-flattened.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index weakened by 0.2%, pulling the USD/JPY pair away from the critical 160.00 intervention line. Risk-sensitive currencies, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and Australian Dollar (AUD), led the G10 currencies higher with gains of 0.6% and 0.3% against the USD, while the South African Rand (ZAR) outperformed across emerging markets.Commodities: rude oil prices extended losses, with Brent and WTI crude hitting close to six-week lows of $92.41/bbl and $88.52. In contrast, precious metals rebounded, supported by a pull-back in longer-term US Treasury yields, with spot gold surging 0.9% to settle at $4,496/oz, still below the 20-day moving average at $4,585/oz. Asia Pacific impact Equity and currency volatility: Before the late-session Wall Street ceasefire bounce, regular-hour Asian equity benchmarks fell by up to 1% as they digested sticky global yields. Currencies stabilized slightly following the 0.2% drop in the greenback, relieving pressure on the Japanese yen near the 160 psychological threshold. Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices recovered sharply in today’s Asia opening session; Nikkei 225 (+1.9% to record high), Hang Seng Index (+0.4%), China A50 (+0.5%), KOSPI (+2.2% to record high), ASX 200 (+1%), and STI (+ 0.7%).Corporate labour and tech supply chains: Highlighting an immense structural divergence, Samsung Electronics' advanced chip workers secured a historic 10-year corporate pay package including bonuses of up to $416,000. These massive wins by a regional bellwether are expected to significantly harden the bargaining positions of other domestic unions, introducing structural wage inflation into the region.Derivative infrastructure race: Financial localization is accelerating. While U.S. exchanges prepare to launch futures contracts tied to raw computing rental power, China is actively designing a brand-new futures market for AI tokens used to price localized AI services, sparking a structural derivatives race with Washington.Top 4 events to watch today Japan Consumer Confidence (May) - 1:00 pm SGT (consensus:32, Apr:32.2) Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crosses, Nikkei 225Germany Harmonised Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 8:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.8% y/y, Apr: 2.9%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXFed Speak - Bowman (9.10 pm SGT), Paulson (9.15 pm SGT) Impact: Short-end US Treasuries, USD, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nasdaq 100 bullish trend intact Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 29 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The intraday decline of 2% seen in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) measured from Wednesday, 27 May US session high to Thursday, 28 May Asia session low has hit an inflection level at 29,700.Thereafter, it staged a bullish reversal, which suggests that its minor uptrend phase from the 19 May 2026 low remains intact.Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 30,425 sees the next intermediate resistances coming in at 30,728/795 (upper boundary of the ascending channel & Fibonacci extension cluster) and 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 29,700 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 29,433 and 29,110 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rallying due to the finalization of the Peace Memorandum, but final agreement by Trump and Khamenei are still awaitedWhile Nasdaq continues to price heaven and shoot for it, the DJIA is surprisingly unchangedExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stock Markets are rallying after major diplomatic progress, as negotiators have finalized the draft of the much-anticipated US-Iran Peace Memorandum. Still, the deal is not yet official. Axios reports that while the main framework is set, final approval is needed from both President Trump, who has asked for a few more days to review the terms, and Supreme Leader Khamenei, before the agreement is signed.The draft shows a more balanced agreement, still tilting towards the US. The main points include keeping the Strait of Hormuz open and gradually lifting the US naval blockade over the next 30 days. The draft also calls for Iran to get rid of its highly enriched nuclear material and allows for free commercial transit in the region. In return, Iran will have key financial assets unfrozen, some economic sanctions lifted, and new systems set up for more humanitarian aid.Even with this major diplomatic breakthrough, energy markets are reacting quietly today. WTI Crude Oil is almost unchanged and remains below $90 as traders wait for clear signs that the strait will reopen. Brent crude fell sharply and is now trading close to WTI, as the international risk premium has disappeared. Daily Market Performance (14:28). May 28, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The tech-focused Nasdaq is rising quickly, led by gains in semiconductor and large tech companies, running for yet another all-time high, but the rise isn’t uniform, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average mostly flat. Outside of the tech sector, most of the market is quiet, as big investors wait for the final diplomatic approvals by the respective US and Iran leaders.Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) bearish breakdown below 200-day MA, further potential weakness aheadAsia open: AI Capex mania fuels world stocks to all-time highs as US-Iran peace deal skepticism lingersTraders are desperate for more news, but the status quo is positiveCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (14:32) – Source: TradingView – May 28, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bulls are actually struggling to push the DJIA above the 50,750 major momentum pivot, despite a strong morning candle.This indicates a potential for a wider pullback, particularly if sellers push the action below the 4H 50-period MA (50,291).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,750 to 50,900 (morning highs)Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is attempting a run to new record highs but the action is stalling as we speak right around the previous 30,300 ATH.Forming a bearish divergence, bulls will actually want to see a clean break in order to push for more price discovery – A rejection however would lead to at least a 29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels30,300 Daily Top and ATHCurrent ATH 30,327 on the CFDSupport Levels29,535 retest (4H 50-Period MA)29,500 - 29,650 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is actually the only index reaching new record highs in today's session, but also forming a bearish divergence at the same time.This indicates that despite the new record, momentum is not as strong as indicated – This could precede a larger pullback to 7,500.If the bullish action continues however, 7,600 is the next step.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 - 5,770 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)current ATH 7,575Support Levels7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivot7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key supportPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold (XAU/USD) has broken below its 200-day moving average for the first time in three months, increasing the risk of a fresh bearish impulsive decline within its broader medium-term downtrend.Rising US Treasury real yields continue to pressure gold prices, with the 10-year real yield staging a major bullish breakout toward multi-month highs, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum remains intact below the $4,456 resistance level, with downside risks potentially extending toward $4,320 and the $4,262/$4,250 support zone. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) rally faces roadblock at 20-day and 50-day moving averages”, published on 7 May 2026.Gold (XAU/USD) has indeed remained lackluster in May and failed to break above its 50-day moving average after a retest of it on 12 May 2026.Thereafter, the precious yellow metal staged a bearish reaction after a retest on the 50-day moving average for the second time on 12 May 2026 (the first time was on 17 April 2026). It printed an intraday high of $4,774/oz on 12 May 2026 and tumbled by 10% to hit a two-month low of $4,368/oz at this time of writing.Intermarket and technical factors are suggesting further potential weakness ahead for gold. Let’s unpack them.Major bullish breakout in the US 10-year Treasury real yield Fig. 1: Medium-term intermarket analysis of 10-year US Treasury yield with Gold as of 28 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The 10-year US Treasury real yield (nominal yield minus the 10-year breakeven rate derived from the 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security) has remained resilient on the upside after it managed to find support at its key 200-day moving average (1.85%) since 15 April 2026.Thereafter, it rallied by 37 basis points to hit almost a one-year high of 2.26% on 20 May 2026 and staged a prior major bullish breakout from a former key descending channel resistance earlier on 15 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the 10-year US Treasury real yield is likely undergoing a potential major uptrend phase (multi-month), with the next medium-term resistance coming in at 2.38% next in the first step.Gold (XAU/USD) has a significant indirect correlation with the longer-term US Treasury yields, as the precious yellow metal is a non-interest income-bearing asset.Hence, further upside in the 10-year US Treasury real yield translates into a further potential feedback loop into Gold (XAU/USD).Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of Gold (XAU/USD).Gold (XAU/USD) – Start of a new minor bearish impulsive down move within medium-term downtrend Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 28 May 2026 (TradingView). Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 28 May 2026 (TradingView). Trend bias: Bearish bias below 4,456 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 3).Supports: 4,320 (24 March 2026 low), 4,262/250 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 congestion), 4,187/167 (Fibonacci extension & 23 March 2026 swing low area).Next resistances: 4,500 (former range support of 21/22 May 2026), 4,580 (also 20-day MA), 4,645 (also 50-day MA)Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on Gold (XAU/USD) Price actions continue to oscillate within a medium-term descending channel in place since its current all-time high printed on 29 January 2026 (see Fig. 2).Price action is now breaking below the key 200-day moving average, the first time in three months since a retest of it on 23 March 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator is in an oversold region (below the 30 level), but without any bullish divergence signal, suggesting near-term bearish momentum is likely still intact. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as the AI infrastructure supercycle continued to dominate market sentiment, with hyperscalers projected to spend up to $1 trillion on AI capex by 2027.Markets remain highly sensitive to conflicting US-Iran peace deal headlines, driving sharp volatility in oil prices, bond yields, and broader risk sentiment across global asset classes.Sticky inflation and increasingly hawkish central bank rhetoric have reinforced expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, with traders now pricing higher odds of Fed and ECB rate hikes.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225 at risk of corrective pull-back below 65,665 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines World stocks advance to record heights: Global equity indices, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and MSCI All Country index, eked out fresh record highs. The momentum remains strongly supported by an unyielding AI infrastructure supercycle that continues to overrule broader macroeconomic headwinds.US-Iran peace progress met with extreme skepticism: Volatility continues to rock the energy sector amid conflicting headlines regarding a breakthrough in the Middle East. While Iranian state media cited an unofficial memorandum of understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a month, the White House forcefully rejected the report, calling it a "complete fabrication."Trillion-dollar tech IPO pipeline expands: Speculation surrounding Elon Musk's public market footprint is heating up as SpaceX prepares to debut on the Nasdaq on June 12, targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. Rumors are intensifying that Musk may eventually move to merge Tesla and SpaceX/xAI to build a unified AI giant. Concurrently, OpenAI and Anthropic continue to pursue substantial private and public funding sources.Central Banks implement hawkish directives: Global monetary policy cycles are shifting aggressively toward headwinds. Following recent rate hikes in Australia and Norway, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold in a highly contested split decision that points to imminent hikes. Simultaneously, European Central Bank officials deliver strong hawkish guidance, emphasizing that rate hikes should proceed regardless of Middle East peace outcomes. The short-term interest rate swaps market is now showing an increasing odds of a 25-basis-point hike from the ECB in June.Key macro themes AI Capex Supercycle vs. Dotcom Bubble Parallels: Cloud hyperscalers are projected to pour over $850 billion into AI infrastructure this year and up to $1 trillion in 2027. While the massive capital expenditures are absorbing enormous amounts of operational cash flow and driving up corporate debt, analysts from Goldman Sachs emphasize that a market crash is not imminent, as these tech giants are delivering concrete, strong earnings growth compared to the speculative late-1990s dotcom mania.The repricing of Fed trajectory before key PCE: Heading into Thursday's highly anticipated April PCE report, the first major inflation data of the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh era at the Fed, economists expect headline annual PCE to accelerate to 3.8% y/y and core annual PCE to jump to 3.3% y/y. Sticky inflation and the ongoing war shock have completely erased 2026 rate cut hopes, with Fed funds futures traders now pricing in 60% probability of an active Fed interest rate hike by year-end.The sovereign yield burden & corporate debt safe havens: Due to sticky inflation, deteriorating public finances in Washington, and massive upcoming Treasury coupon supply, investor sentiment toward U.S. sovereign debt has soured. Consequently, fund managers are increasingly eschewing Treasuries to flock into top-tier, blue-chip U.S. corporate debt, as corporate America's balance sheets increasingly look more sound than Washington's debt.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street was mixed but steady; the Dow Jones and Russell 2000 notched new record highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished basically flat. Gains were led by consumer discretionary (+1.9%), with United Airlines gaining 6%, while software and chip names consolidated, with Qualcomm dropping 6%, and Nvidia slipped by 1%. Europe closed flat, and the UK FTSE gained 0.1%.Fixed Income: U.S. Treasury yields eased slightly by 1-2 basis points. A heavy multi-billion dollar 5-year sovereign note auction registered acceptable investor demand ahead of top-tier PCE inflation data out later today.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) remained mostly flat. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) skyrocketed by 1.0% to emerge as the largest G10 mover following the hawkish RBNZ split decision. The Japanese Yen slumped to a fresh 4-week low towards 159.50 per USD, entering acute verbal and physical intervention zones.Commodities: Crude oil prices tumbled by 4.0%, sliding back below the critical $100/barrel handle as energy traders tentatively priced in the state-television peace rumors. Precious metals remained under severe pressure from higher global yield tracking; spot gold slipped further to trade near a fresh 2-month low at $4,456/oz, just above its 200-day moving average ($4,394/oz).Asia Pacific impact South Korean and regional indices explode: South Korea's benchmark KOSPI spearheaded global equity gains, skyrocketing 3.0% to print a major record high on Wednesday, 27 May. The explosive rally is heavily driven by its twin memory chip giants, Samsung Electronics (+158% YTD) and SK Hynix (+258% YTD), both of which have been vaulted into the exclusive $1-trillion-valuation club due to insatiable AI infrastructure demand.Japan eyeing June hike amid slumping currency: Despite massive sovereign bond yield volatility, reports reveal the Bank of Japan is actively eyeing a June interest rate hike. This comes as the Japanese yen's purchasing power sinks to fresh lows under the weight of expensive energy imports, leaving it tracking as one of the world's weakest major currencies. Concurrently, SoftBank is pulling in 30 leading Japanese manufacturers to back a major homegrown AI industrial data venture.India falter and capital exits accelerate: In stark contrast to its East Asian peers, India's benchmark equity indices are faltering as foreign institutional investors dump domestic shares at a record-breaking pace. Millions of retail investors are shifting capital out of the country into foreign markets (up 57% y/y) due to a complete lack of AI exposure at home, a rapidly depreciating Rupee, and consecutive fuel price hikes stoking structural inflation.Top 3 events to watch today US PCE Core Inflation (Apr) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 3.3% y/y, Mar: 3.2% y/y) Impact: All asset classesUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flows Impact: All asset classesChart of the day - Nikkei 225 at risk of minor setback Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD minor trend as of 28 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). The price actions of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) have hit a short-term inflection/resistance level of 66,190/558 on Wednesday, 27 May 2026, after it breached above the upper boundary of a major ascending channel, running from the 7 April 2026 low.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought level before it staged a bearish breakdown below its 50 level.These observations suggest an impending minor corrective pull-back/setback. Watch the 65,665 key short-term pivotal resistance. A break below 64,620 near-term support (downside trigger level) may expose the next intermediate supports at 63,788/270 and 62,510 (also close to the 20-day moving average).However, a clearance above 65,665 invalidates the bearish scenario for a continuation of the bullish impulsive upmove sequence to retest the current all-time high area of 66,190/558 before potentially setting sight on the next intermediate resistance at 67,047 (Fibonacci extension). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global financial markets are on edge as traders wait for clear details about the new US-Iran peace plan. After two months of intense tension and repeated ceasefire extensions, a concrete framework is finally being discussed. Both sides know what is at stake: the US wants the Strait of Hormuz reopened without conditions and Iran’s nuclear program dismantled, while Iran wants a full regional ceasefire and a withdrawal of US troops. The big question for markets now is whether negotiators can bring some still contradicting demands together in the next 60 days.Even with uncertainty still in the air, the current situation is giving strong support to risk assets. The fact that tensions are not turning into a wider war is a major positive change. This relief has pushed the tech-focused Nasdaq to new record highs above 30,000 this morning, up 4% since last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also broke records on Monday’s holiday and is trying to move higher, though today’s trading has been slower and more steady.This particularly reflects the large change seen in Crude Oil prices, down just shy of 10% since the weekly open. Daily FX Performance (15:56). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Still, there is some caution in the market because the White House has not shown much excitement about the final details of the deal. President Trump made it clear that Iran will not get immediate sanctions relief for giving up its highly enriched uranium. This firm position shows that, even though there is a Memorandum of Understanding, reaching a full treaty is still very complicated and faces many diplomatic challenges. Cross-Asset Daily Performance, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Even if the risk of re-escalation has eased, many details are still unclear and traders are turning their attention back to economic data awaiting for the headlines. With few major events early this week, big investors are waiting for tomorrow’s important Core PCE report. This key inflation number will show if the recent oil-driven supply shocks have hurt the US economy more than expected, which could make things harder for the Federal Reserve’s next moves (the next FOMC meeting is on June 17).These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.With time, resistance and resilience, things will fall in order.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades and Keep your eyes on the news!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are rebalancing from Nasdaq to Dow Jones as risk-appetite is staying stableTraders are still remaining hopeful due to the pricing of a peace process with a deal pendingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 US stock indexes are going through a steady rebalancing today, with market risk appetite holding steady. Instead of a big sell-off, large investors are moving money out of the tech sector and into the more stable blue-chip stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Traders remain deeply hopeful about the broader macroeconomic backdrop, largely because the tape has already priced in the Traders are optimistic about the overall economic outlook, mainly because the market has already factored in the details of the US-Iran peace process.The new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) is the main reason for this positive mood, as it aims to settle the last major disagreements between the two countries. With the risk of energy supply problems now off the table, investors feel comfortable staying invested in stocks, even if the market's short-term gains are slowing down. One problem is that the latest news came more pessimistic than expected, with Trump announcing that he is not satisfied with the latest Iranian Deal – So that remains a story to develop.Upon hitting that historic target, short-term sellers immediately stepped into the tech sector to lock in massive profits, subsequently using that freshly generated liquidity to buy back the underperformed Dow Jones instead.This classic sector rotation is keeping the broader market entirely stable, capping the downside while investors patiently await the next wave of concrete geopolitical headlines to confirm the finalized treaty. Daily Market Performance (11:36). May 27, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Now, let’s take a look at the intraday charts and trading levels for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewAll about the peace process – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateCryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:34) – Source: TradingView – May 27, 2026 Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bulls resurfaced at the prior ATH (50,500) and are holding the Market in place – Still, keep an eye on the key support and the Pivot level right above (50,800) to determine who has the advantage.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsIntraday Pivot 50,800 to 50,900Memorial Day resistance 51,100 to 51,200Support LevelsFebruary ATH Pivot 50,400 to 50,500 (Short-term Bearish below)Pivotal Support – 49,000 to 49,100 (mid-term bearish below)Momentum Support 48,500Pivotal Support at 48,000Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq wicked to new highs but is back once again below the 30,000 level, indicating some more doubts around immediate pricing – Keep track of the latest news to see if more upside is to be warranted or a correction could come.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels30,300 Daily Top and ATH29,850 - 30,000 Memorial Day top ResistanceCurrent ATH 30,327 on the CFDSupport Levels29,500 - 29,600 Pivot29,100 - 29,250 momentum support (short-term bearish below)28,000 minor supportPrior ATH Support 26,200 to 26,300S&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is forming an intraday double top at 7,557, indicating that some trouble could be coming on the short-term.The action remains bullish long term but the latest news are clouding the picture.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels7,550 Memorial Day ATH Resistance (double top!)7,525 Past week's ATH Resistance now pivotCurrent ATH 7,557Support Levels7,450 - 7,460 Minor Support (Short-term bearish below – 4H 50-period MA (7,448)7,400 Key support7,320 to 7,340 Past week retracementPivotal Support 7,250 to 7,260Prior ATH Pivot 7,000 to 7,020Minor Support 6,880 to 6,900Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.These are my final pieces on MarketPulse, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website if you want to stay in contact.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to move sideways with ongoing confusion regarding the Iran peace processCryptos are not following Nasdaq as strongly as before, pointing to inherent Digital Asset weaknessExploring a Technical Analysis and trading levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Bitcoin and other cryptos are stuck in a narrow, frustrating range as uncertainty around the Iran peace process continues. Unlike traditional risk assets, cryptocurrencies are not following the recent surge in US stocks. While stock benchmarks hit new all-time highs after news from the Strait of Hormuz, digital assets have barely reacted. Bitcoin and Nasdaq correlation slowly fades – Source: JustETF.com. May 26, 2026 Bitcoin is holding near $76,000 and showing signs of resistance on daily charts, rather than breaking out. This slow movement shows that cryptocurrencies are not tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq as closely as they have in the past. The recent split suggests weakness in digital assets, as crypto investors are hesitant to take a clear direction while the outcome of the peace process is still uncertain. Daily Crypto Performance (16:37). May 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz It is still unclear if this underperformance will last. The lack of strong buying suggests that retail investors are holding back for now. However, Bitcoin is still holding its support levels even as the US Dollar rises, which shows that its base is solid – But some technical cracks might be starting to materialize. The question remains: If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, is there still a chance for a strong catch-up rally?Let's dive right into a technical analysis and key trading levels for both Bitcoin and Ethereum to spot if a clear breakout in indeed into play from here. Read More:Markets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewChart alert: AUD/NZD rally set to continue after hitting 13-year highBitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin attempted a breakout above its long-term pivot but could not hold it amid low conviction regarding a clean development for the US-Iran peace process.BTC could actually be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, a bearish pattern that could take the main crypto back to $70,000 following a measured move approach.Still, as long as it holds above its 50-Day MA ($74,800), the outlook is more bullish-neutral than bearish.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:4H 200-period MA ($77,000)$75,000 Key long-term Pivot (acting as resistance)$70,000 Short-term momentum Pivot$60,000 to $63,000 Main 2024 support (recent double bottom)$59,935 February LowsResistance Levels:$74,800 50-Day MA$80,000 to $83,000 mini-resistance (entering, bullish above)$82,500 cycle highs$90,000 to $95,000 minor Resistance$98,000 to $100,000 Pivotal ResistanceCurrent ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, May 26, 2026– Source: TradingView Ethereum is still showing weaker action compared to Bitcoin, having broken below its 50-Day Moving average ($2,220) and just holding above its October downtrend, leaving the crypto in a more balanced than bearish outlook.Any move below $2,000 could accelerate the selloff in the broader altcoin Market, but as long as the action remain above the key level, bulls can still remain optimistic.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:mini-support $2,000$1,700 to $1,800 Pre-Bounce 2025 Key Support (testing)$1,744 February 6 lows$1,380 to $1,500 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:Daily 50 MA $2,220Mini-Resistance $2,400$2,500 to $2,800 June 2025 Pivotal Resistance$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$4,950 Current new All-time highsThe narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.