Key takeaways USD/JPY rebound stalls: The 3-day rebound is losing momentum at the key 158.55 inflexion level, with technical signals pointing to bearish reversal risk.UST-JGB yield gap narrows: The 2-year yield spread has fallen to 2.64%, which could support renewed yen strength if the narrowing continues.NFP is the key catalyst: A break below 157.95 could expose 157.30 and 156.32, while a move above 158.55 could open the door to 159.45. The recent three-month period of yen weakness from May 2026, which saw the JPY plummet to a 40-year low of 163.99 per US dollar on 23 July 2026, was “recused” by a two-day FX intervention that included a historical US-Japan joint effort on 30 July and 31 July that strengthened the yen to 155.23 on Monday, 3 August 2026.However, the yen’s strength stalled, and USD/JPY staged a 3-day rebound of 2.08% (low to close), closing at 158.46 on Thursday, 6 August 2026, nearly giving up half of the gains seen in the yen from last week’s FX Intervention.As speculators focus on long-term dynamics, such as geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran situation that can dampen Japan’s growth prospects, this, in turn, delays the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalisation of its monetary policy stance of gradual interest rate hikes.The UST-JGB yield gap is the next focus for traders Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spread with USD/JPY as of 7 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The rise of the USD/JPY (yen weakness) from 152.71 to July’s 40-year high print of 163.99 has been accompanied by a widening of the monetary policy sensitive 2-year yield spread between the US Treasury Notes (UST) and the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) from 2.12% to 2.82% over the same period (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the 2-year UST-JGB yield spread (gap) has started to reverse down (narrowed) right below a key medium-term resistance of 3.02% to now trade at 2.64% at this time of writing, which in turn reinforces a major bearish breakdown of the USD/JPY from its former ascending trendline support from April-May 2026.Hence, a continuation of the narrowing of the 2-year UST-JGB yield spread towards 2.05% may see a revival of USD/JPY weakness, given a key risk event later at 8.30 pm SGT: the US non-farm payroll release for July (57K: June, consensus: 80K).Let’s now decipher the potential short-term expectations (1 to 3 days) of USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective. USD/JPY – short-term bullish momentum is losing strength at inflexion point Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 3-day rally in USD/JPY from Monday, 3 August 2026, to a low of 155.23 has reached an inflexion level of 158.55 defined by a confluence of elements (the former major ascending trendline from 22 April 2025 low, former minor swing low of 31 July 2026, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of prior down move from 30 July 2026 high to 3 August 2026 low).In addition, the recent price action in USD/JPY is likely to have taken the form of a minor “bearish flag” configuration (dead cat bounce), suggesting a pause in an ongoing short-term downtrend, coupled with a bearish divergence in the hourly RSI momentum indicator at its overbought region (see Fig. 2).Therefore, given that USD/JPY price action has pushed up to the inflexion level of 158.55 (current intraday high of 158.57 at this time of writing) amid bearish elements, USD/JPY may be due for an imminent minor bearish reversal.A break below the potential downside trigger level of 157.95 (200-day moving average) may reinforce the bearish reversal scenario, exposing the intermediate supports of 157.30 and 156.32 in the first step.On the other hand, clearance and an hourly close above the key short-term pivotal resistance at 158.55 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the door to a further potential squeeze up towards the medium-term resistance at 159.45. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Microsoft’s Q4 FY2026 earnings will test whether its massive AI investment cycle is translating into meaningful financial returns, with investors focused on Azure growth, Copilot monetisation, free cash flow, and forward guidance rather than headline EPS or revenue.Capital expenditure remains the biggest swing factor, as Microsoft’s Capex-to-Revenue ratio has climbed to a record high among the Magnificent 7. Any increase in AI spending without clear evidence of stronger monetisation could weigh on investor sentiment despite an earnings beat.Microsoft has lagged other AI beneficiaries during the latest market rally, underperforming semiconductor stocks that have benefited directly from hyperscalers’ AI infrastructure spending, raising questions over when Microsoft’s AI investments will deliver stronger shareholder returns.Technical indicators continue to favour a bearish medium-term outlook, with Microsoft trading below its 50-day moving average and forming a potential major Head & Shoulders topping pattern. A break below 372.10 could reinforce a broader corrective decline unless the stock reclaims 413.60. Since the start of the current medium-term bullish trend phase of the US stock market from 30 June 2026 till 28 July 2026, the major US hyperscalers (part of the Magnificent 7 cohort of mega-cap stocks; Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms) that invested heavily in AI-related fixed assets (capex) have underperformed against a basket of US semiconductor stocks (PHLX Semiconductor Index +54.5%), where the hyperscalers deployed massive amount of funds either directly or indirectly into these US semiconductor firms.Microsoft’s share price is the worst performer among the Magnificent 7 hyperscalers, with a gain of 9.6% from 30 June 2026 to 28 July 2026 (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Magnificent 7 & US stock indices performances from 30 Mar 2026 to 28 Jul 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Ahead of today’s Microsoft fiscal Q4 2026 earnings, traders are treating the print as a test of whether Microsoft can convert its huge AI infrastructure spending into durable Azure growth, Copilot monetisation and operating leverage.Consensus is looking for EPS of about $4.21 on revenue of roughly $87.6 billion, with Microsoft scheduled to report after the U.S. close on 29 July 2026.Fundamental drivers that are likely to have a significant impact on its share price movement after the release of its earnings numbers will hinge on Azure growth, AI monetisation, capex discipline, free cash flow, and forward guidance.Let’s break down some of these drivers.AI monetisation: Copilot, Azure AI and OpenAI Traders will watch whether Microsoft can show stronger monetisation from Microsoft 365 Copilot, Azure AI Services, GitHub Copilot, OpenAI-related workloads and enterprise AI adoption.Microsoft said its AI business annual revenue run rate surpassed $37 billion in Q3, up 123% year on year, while S&P Global noted that consensus expects Azure AI Services revenue of about $23.7 billion for FY2026.Capex and free cash flow: the key risk factor Fig. 2: US Big Tech Capex-to-Revenue ratios as of Q2 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Capex is arguably the biggest swing factor. Microsoft previously guided to around $190 billion in calendar-2026 capital expenditure, including about $25 billion due to higher component pricing, and said it expects to remain capacity-constrained through at least 2026.MarketWatch reported that investors are scrutinising whether this huge AI spending is generating sufficient returns, with Deutsche Bank estimating Q4 free cash flow could fall 34.2% year on year to $16.8 billion.In the Q1 2026 calendar year, Microsoft’s Capex-to-Revenue ratio has continued its climb northwards to 37.25 (the highest among the Magnificent 7 hyperscalers) from 24.97 recorded in Q3 2025 calendar year (see Fig. 2).The rapid increase in Microsoft’s Capex-to-Revenue ratio is likely to alert traders that Microsoft now faces a higher hurdle to generating revenue and free cash flows from its AI-related fixed-asset investments.A capex raise without clear monetisation would be negative, even if headline earnings beat.Let’s now unpack the medium-term outlook (multi-week) of Microsoft’s share price from a technical analysis perspective. Tracing out a major bearish “Head & Shoulders” top since 31 July 2025 Fig. 3: Microsoft (MSFT) major trend as of 28 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 4: Microsoft (MSFT) medium-trend as of 28 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The weekly chart of Microsoft (MSFT) has traced out a major bearish “Head & Shoulders” topping configuration, coupled with a declining Chaikin Money Flow reading (see Fig. 3).These observations suggest that the major uptrend phase of MSFT from the 4 November 2022 low may be in jeopardy for a bearish reversal.The 1% rebound in MSFT on Tuesday, 28 July 2026, stalled after a retest of the 50-day moving average, which the price has traded below since 9 June 2026, indicating a lack of medium-term bullish momentum (see Fig. 4).Watch the 413.60 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 372.10 near-term support would expose the next supports of 355.74 and 341.43 (the major neckline support of the “Head & Shoulders”) in the first step.On the other hand, a daily close above 413.60 and clearance would negate the bearish tone, suggesting a potential squeeze up to retest 431.60 (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Intel heads into its Q2 2026 earnings with expectations running high, following a remarkable 172% year-to-date rally, as investors look for confirmation that its AI-driven turnaround can justify its sharp valuation rerating.Data Centre and AI revenue, alongside capital expenditure and cash flow, will be the key earnings drivers, with the market seeking evidence that Intel's heavy AI investments are translating into sustainable demand, profitability, and operating leverage.Alphabet's post-earnings sell-off highlights the market's growing sensitivity to AI spending, suggesting Intel's forward guidance on capital investment and free cash flow could have a greater impact on its share price than headline EPS or revenue beats.Technical indicators continue to favour the bears, with Intel trading below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, a bearish shooting star candlestick, and weakening relative strength against the S&P 500 pointing to the risk of a renewed multi-week corrective decline below the 120.35 resistance. The share price of one of the major US AI infrastructure players, Intel, has still delivered a stellar year-to-date performance, recording a gain of 172% as of Wednesday, 22 July 2026, after a 37% correction from its current all-time high of 142.35 printed on 30 June 2026Intel is also ranked number five in year-to-date performance within the S&P 500 as of 22 July 2026 (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Intel’s year-to-date performance and ranking within S&P 500 as of 22 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. After the close of today’s 23 July session in the US, Intel will report its Q2 earnings, where traders are treating the print as a high-beta test of whether Intel’s AI-driven turnaround is real enough to justify this year’s sharp rerating.Revenue and EPS vs elevated expectations Consensus is looking for roughly $14.4 billion of Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS of about $0.22, a major improvement from a loss of $0.10 per share and $12.9 billion of revenue a year earlier.Intel’s own Q2 guidance was $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion of revenue and $0.20 non-GAAP EPS, so the market is already expecting results near the high end of guidance.Data centre and AI revenue The most important operating line is Data Centre and AI (DCAI). Consensus expects DCAI revenue to rise about 42% year on year to $5.6 billion, driven by hyperscaler and enterprise demand for AI infrastructure and custom processors.MarketWatch separately noted expectations for data-centre revenue growth of around 37.8% to about $5.4 billion, helped by stronger server CPU demand and higher chip prices.Capex, cash flow and cost discipline Intel’s turnaround still requires heavy investment. Traders will watch whether management can show operating leverage while funding fabs, advanced nodes and packaging capacity.The market wants evidence that Intel is spending into real demand, not just burning cash to chase AI relevance.For example, the share price of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, was punished despite a strong earnings beat, nosediving 4% in after-hours trading on Wednesday, 22 July, following its earnings release.The primary concern that spooked traders was that Alphabet raised its 2026 capital spending estimate to $195 billion to $205 billion for AI infrastructure, up from a previous estimate of as much as $190 billion, which triggered the company’s first-ever quarter of negative free cash flow.Let’s now unpack the medium-term outlook (multi-week) of Intel’s share price from a technical analysis perspective.Below 20-day & 50-day moving averages with weak relative strength Fig. 2: Intel (INTC) medium-term trend as of 22 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The recent 18% rebound in Intel (INTC) from last Friday, 17 July 2026, low of 89.59, is showing signs of bullish exhaustion.Wednesday, 22 July’s price action has formed a daily bearish reversal “Shooting Star” candlestick just right below a moving average bearish crossover condition (20-day below 50-day) (see Fig. 2).In addition, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of the Intel (INTC)/S&P 500 (SPY) ratio has deteriorated significantly since 7 July 2026, as it broke below a major ascending trendline support dating back to 8 August 2025, accompanied by a corresponding downward-sloping 50-day moving average of the VARS.These observations suggest that Intel's prior outperformance over the S&P 500 is losing momentum, and that Intel may be on the brink of underperforming over a multi-week perspective.Watch the 120.35 key medium-term resistance on INTC, and a break below 89.59 intermediate support may reinforce the multi-corrective decline sequence towards the 68.85 medium-term support (also coincides with the key 200-day moving average) in the first step.On the other hand, a daily close above 120.35 invalidates the bearish tone, paving the way for a bullish revival to retest the current all-time area of 141.45 before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 175.20 (Fibonacci extension). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Nasdaq 100 has become the weakest major US equity benchmark this week, underperforming the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000 as investors rotate away from richly valued AI and semiconductor leaders despite robust Q2 bank earnings.AI infrastructure stocks are entering a valuation reset, as leveraged unwinding in major memory-chip names, concerns over excessive capital expenditure, and delayed AI monetisation shift investor focus from growth narratives toward sustainable cash flow and earnings quality.Rising volatility in semiconductor stocks is flashing a broader market warning, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF breaking below its 50-day moving average while realised volatility expands, increasing the risk of a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.Technically, the Nasdaq 100 is approaching a critical inflexion point, with the 28,200 neckline support of a potential medium-term double-top pattern becoming the key downside trigger. A decisive break could signal the start of a multi-week corrective decline. The Nasdaq 100 has been the weakest among the major US benchmark stock indices since the start of this week.The tech-heavy index has declined 2.7% week-to-date as of Thursday, 16 July 2026, versus the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%), and the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.1%), amid the stellar Q2 earnings results of major US Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase that smashed expectations.AI capex fatigue and multiple compression threats Fig. 1: Month-to-date global stock indices performance as of 16 Jul 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. One of the primary drivers of the Nasdaq 100’s current lackluster performance has been the “elevator up, elevator down” effect from AI infrastructure-related and high memory bandwidth semiconductor stocks that recorded triple-digit returns in the first half of 2026.Right now, these stocks are facing an “elevator down” effect due to the unwinding of a significant amount of leveraged long financial products tied to two major global bellwethers, high memory bandwidth semiconductor stocks, South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, that plummeted by 15.5% and 10.5% for the week of 13 July 2026.Secondly, the semiconductor landscape is signalling a vital transition in risk appetite from unanchored thematic speculation to strict cash-flow discipline. While near-term corporate earnings confirm that chip demand is blistering, elevated capital expenditure forecasts from suppliers like TSMC have sparked deep anxieties about industry-wide supply overbuilding.Despite a solid quarterly outlook and strong earnings beat from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), its concurrent higher capital spending forecast triggered a "sell the news" shockwave. Consequently, TSMC’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) plummeted 4.5% on Thursday, 16 July 2026.Thirdly, if tech hyperscalers continue to spend capital aggressively on back-end hardware infrastructure while delaying the commercial execution and monetisation of consumer-facing models (as vividly illustrated by recent product pipeline delays from major players like Google), high-beta growth multiples will be compressed.Valuation metrics will increasingly demand realised revenue rather than forward capex visibility, putting the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 at severe risk of mean reversion decline.Since the start of July 2026, AI infrastructure and high-memory-bandwidth semiconductor thematic benchmark stock indices have been the worst performers among major stock indicesSouth Korea’s KOSPI was punished with a horrendous month-to-date decline of 17%, and the US PHLX Semiconductor Index recorded a double-digit loss of 11.1% over the same period (see Fig. 1).Let’s now unpack the relevant technicals.Expanding volatility in US semiconductor stocks is dragging down Nasdaq 100 Fig. 2: iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor major trend with volatility signal as of 16 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 3: iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor ETF direct correlation with Nasdaq 100 as of 16 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Based on the weekly price actions of the iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor exchange-traded fund (SOXX), its realised volatility, measured by the distance between its 14-period Average True Range (ATR) and its corresponding 50-period moving average, has reached an expanding state of 2.13 times (see Fig. 2).Given that SOXX has broken below its 50-day moving average, coupled with expanding realised volatility and its high direct correlation with the Nasdaq 100 since 22 June 2026 (see Fig. 3), SOXX is now facing an increased risk of a medium-term, multi-week corrective decline phase that may trigger a negative feedback loop into the Nasdaq 100.Watch the 28,200 support on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD for further downside Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 17 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 4% rebound seen on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) may have run its course and face a terminal point on Wednesday, 15 July 2026, after it staged a bearish reaction from the descending trendline resistance from the 22 June 2026 high and traded back below both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.In addition, current price action (28,563 intraday at this time of writing) is now approaching the key 28,200 neckline support of a potential medium-term “Double Top” that has been forming on the daily time frame since the current all-time high was printed on 3 June 2026 (see Fig. 4).Watch the 28,945 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain a potential multi-day bearish trend bias, and a break below 28,200 may expose the next intermediate support at 27,844 (also a Fibonacci extension) in the first step.Only a clearance with an hourly close above 28,945 damages the minor bearish trend for a mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 29,227/350 and 29,635 (also the intersection of the 20-day and 50-day moving averages). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Goldman Sachs enters Q2 earnings after significantly outperforming the broader market, with its share price up 19% year-to-date, comfortably beating both the S&P 500 and the S&P Financial sector, leaving expectations elevated ahead of the results.Investment banking fees and Global Markets revenue will be the key earnings catalysts, as investors assess whether improving M&A activity, IPO issuance, underwriting, and trading income confirm that Wall Street's capital markets recovery is broadening.Macro developments could outweigh company-specific earnings guidance, with today's US CPI report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, and renewed Middle East tensions likely to influence trading activity, interest-rate expectations, and investor sentiment.Technical indicators point to mounting bullish exhaustion, with bearish RSI divergence, weakening momentum, and repeated failures to reclaim the 20-day moving average, suggesting the risk of a multi-week mean-reversion decline unless Goldman Sachs decisively breaks above the 1,095.90 resistance. Ahead of today’s Q2 results before the start of the US session, Goldman Sachs is being judged mainly on whether the Wall Street capital markets recovery is broadening enough to justify the stock’s strong rerating. Fig. 1: Year-to-date performance of Goldman Sachs with S&P 500 and S&P sectors as of 13 Jul 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. So far, the year-to-date share price performance of Goldman Sachs (GS) as of Monday, 13 July 2026, has been stellar. It soared by 19%, outperforming the broader-based S&P Financial sector exchange-traded fund (+2.4%) and the S&P 500 (+9.8%) (see Fig. 1).Consensus expects Q2 EPS of about $14.51 (representing an expected earnings growth of 33% from a year ago over the same period) and revenue of roughly $16.22 billion, according to data compiled by TradingView, with the major U.S. banks broadly expected to post higher year-on-year profits as equity markets, deal activity, and trading conditions improve.Investment banking fees and global markets activities will be the key drivers A stronger pickup in M&A, IPO and underwriting activity would reinforce the view that Goldman is entering a more favourable deal-making cycle, while resilient FICC and equities trading revenue could provide an additional earnings boost.Current macro factors may overshadow the positive firm-based revenue guidance Macro conditions may take centre stage today and act as a near-term tailwind.Renewed US-Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and broader cross-asset volatility are likely to support client hedging and trading activity across commodities, rates, FX, and equity derivatives. At the same time, today’s US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony to Congress could further influence hawkish Fed pricing, potentially lifting activity in rates and macro-related trading products.However, the same macro forces are not purely bullish. Higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and a more hawkish Fed path could weigh on risk appetite, equity valuations, and corporate confidence, potentially delaying M&A, IPOs, and financing activity. As a result, Goldman’s share price reaction will likely depend on whether stronger trading momentum can offset any signs of softness in capital markets activity.Let’s now focus on the medium-term technicals of Goldman Sachs (GS).Mean reversion decline on the deck Fig. 2: Goldman Sachs (GS) medium-term trend as of 13 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The recent price action in GS over the past four weeks suggests bullish exhaustion.Hence, the medium-term (4-month) uptrend phase from the 13 March 2026 low of 780.50 may have reached a terminal/inflexion point at the 18 June 2026 all-time high of 1,125, which increases the odds of a multi-week mean-reversion decline in the first step (see Fig. 2).The reaction from the medium-term ascending channel top on 18 June 2026 coincided with a bearish divergence condition seen on the daily RSI momentum indicator at its overbought level.In addition, the daily RSI has been printing a series of “lower highs,” suggesting a lack of upside momentum, and price action has failed to trade above the 20-day moving average.Watch the 1,095.90 key medium-term pivotal resistance for a potential slide towards 1,000/971.85; below it, a deeper mean-reversion decline may reinforce towards a major support of 905.75 (also the 200-day moving average).On the flip side, a clearance with a daily close above 1,095.90 invalidates the mean reversion decline scenario for a retest on the 1,125 all-time high before setting sight on the next medium-term resistance at 1,171/197 (Fibonacci extension cluster). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The U.S. labor market is losing momentum, but not collapsing. Nonfarm payrolls rose by only 57,000, previous months were revised lower, and hiring has clearly slowed, while layoffs remain limited.The drop in unemployment is less positive than it looks. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, but this was partly due to a decline in labor force participation to 61.5%, meaning some people stopped actively looking for work.The report reduced pressure on the Fed to tighten policy further. Slower job growth and easing wage pressure revived hopes for future rate cuts, weakened the dollar, and supported assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and EUR/USD. June data from the U.S. labor market showed a clear weakening in employment momentum. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, significantly below economists’ expectations. In addition, data for the previous two months were revised downward, weakening earlier signals that had suggested greater resilience in the labor market. United States Non Farm Payrolls, source: Trading Economics At first glance, the decline in the unemployment rate to 4.2% appeared positive. However, this is not an unambiguous sign of improvement. The drop in unemployment was accompanied by a marked decline in labor force participation. The participation rate fell to 61.5%, reaching its lowest level in more than five years. This means that some individuals stopped actively looking for work and were therefore no longer included in unemployment statistics.Companies are not conducting mass layoffs, but they are hiring more cautiouslyThe report does not point to a labor market collapse, but it does show increasing caution among employers. Initial jobless claims remained almost unchanged, suggesting that the scale of layoffs remains limited. The issue, therefore, is not a sharp reduction in employment, but a weaker willingness among companies to create new jobs.The largest decline in employment was recorded in the leisure and hospitality sector. This is particularly important because, at this time of year, the industry typically increases seasonal hiring. Weaker-than-usual employment growth may indicate a more cautious approach by companies toward consumer demand and future operating costs.At the same time, some sectors continued to support the labor market. Healthcare and social assistance remained the main source of employment growth. Job numbers also increased in manufacturing and construction. Weakness persisted, however, in the information sector, where employment declined for the seventeenth time in the past eighteen months.Wages are rising, but inflationary pressure is easingAverage hourly earnings rose by 3.5% year over year in June. This increase shows that wages are still growing, but they are no longer generating inflationary pressure as strong as during the period of peak labor market tightness. For the Federal Reserve, this may be an argument that employment conditions remain relatively stable and do not require an abrupt policy response. United States Average Hourly Earnings YoY, source: Trading Economics From the perspective of households, however, the picture is less favorable. Slower employment growth means fewer opportunities to find a new job, while inflation continues to limit the real purchasing power of wages. Even if nominal wages are rising, many workers may not feel a clear improvement in their financial situation.Markets took note of the report’s weaknessThe release triggered a moderately positive reaction in financial markets. The S&P 500 opened higher, while U.S. Treasury yields declined. Investors scaled back expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Fed, although they still priced in at least one rate increase this year.The market reaction shows that weaker employment data were interpreted as a factor reducing pressure on the central bank. If the labor market continues to lose momentum, the Fed may have fewer reasons to tighten monetary policy further.A mixed picture of the U.S. economyThe data were disappointing, but they should not fundamentally change the overall assessment of the economy. The labor market reflects uneven economic growth, in which some sectors are still creating jobs while others are clearly slowing. From the Fed’s perspective, the situation does not look alarming, as the labor market is not generating additional inflationary pressure. For American households, however, it means more difficult conditions, especially when limited employment opportunities coincide with persistently high living costs. Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as FOMC Chair was perceived as hawkish and fueled concerns about an interest rate hike in the United States. As a result, the dollar strengthened significantly in recent weeks. Following today’s NFP report, hopes for an interest rate cut have resurfaced. Of course, with core PCE inflation currently at 3.4% year over year, this remains unlikely. Nevertheless, today’s reading creates a balance between arguments for monetary easing and monetary tightening, given the Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. It was precisely these hopes that led to a weakening of the dollar. EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.1446, up 0.59%. Instruments quoted in USD, which have recently failed to generate returns for investors, also deserve attention. Gold is up 2.37% today, while Bitcoin has gained 2.64%. Daily timeframe of EURUSD, GOLD and BTCUSD, source: TradingView A labor market without collapse, but also without strengthThe June report shows that the U.S. labor market is in a phase of clear slowdown. There are no signs of mass layoffs or a sharp deterioration in conditions, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to describe the market as strong. Companies are acting cautiously, new jobs are being created more slowly, and the decline in unemployment is partly the result of lower labor force participation.The key takeaway from the report is therefore that the labor market is not collapsing, but it is losing resilience. For the Fed, this means less pressure from wages and employment, while for workers it means more challenging job-search conditions and limited improvement in real incomes. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD/JPY has confirmed a major technical breakout. The decisive move above the long-standing 161.95 resistance suggests that bullish momentum remains firmly in place, with the pair entering a fresh medium-term impulsive advance despite increasingly forceful verbal intervention from Japanese officials.Interest-rate differentials remain the dominant driver. The widening 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield spread continues to underpin dollar strength against the yen, as markets anticipate further policy tightening from the Federal Reserve while the Bank of Japan remains relatively accommodative despite its latest rate hike.Japan’s domestic policies are reinforcing yen weakness. A large-scale fiscal stimulus programme, combined with persistent foreign inflows into Japanese equities and associated currency hedging activity, is adding structural selling pressure to the yen.Verbal intervention alone appears insufficient. Unless Japanese authorities escalate to direct foreign exchange intervention or the US-Japan yield spread narrows materially, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains to the upside. This is a follow-up analysis on the prior report, “Chart alert: USD/JPY advances toward the next 161.60/95 key intervention levels”, published on 10 June 2026The price action of USD/JPY has advanced northwards as expected and cleared the key resistance level of 161.95, following the FX intervention in July 2022.In today’s Asian session (Tuesday, 30 June 2026), the Japanese yen weakened to a 40-year low, printing 162.41 per US dollar despite verbal interventions from Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama and Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara.Why are verbal warnings being ignored? The widening yield gap: While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) lifted its benchmark interest rate to “around 1%” in mid-June (its highest level since 1995), it remains severely behind the curve compared to Western developed central banks. With US rates at 3.50%–3.75% and the Fed expected to raise rates toward 4.00% under Chair Kevin Warsh, the nominal yield differential keeps JPY highly attractive as a funding currency for global carry tradesGiven these circumstances, the 2-year yield spread between US Treasury notes and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) has continued to widen, now just above a major support level of 2.05%, and the yield premium has steadily increased to 2.74%, putting upside pressure on USD/JPY (see Fig. 1).Takaichi’s aggressive fiscal package: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s late-June unveiling of a massive $2.3 trillion public-private investment program over 14 years has reignited fears of structural fiscal expansion. This unchecked stimulus risks overheating the economy, causing long-term Japanese government bond (JGB) yields to rise in tandem with a weakening currency.Nikkei 72,000 hedging blowback: The record-breaking rally in the Nikkei 225 past the 72,000 psychological level (printing an intraday all-time high of 72,832 on 22 June 2026) has been heavily fuelled by foreign capital pouring into Japanese AI and semiconductor equities. However, these inflows have been accompanied by aggressive currency hedging by foreign institutions, leading to immediate, heavy selling pressure on the spot JPY. Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spread with USD/JPY as of 30 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Continues to oscillate within a minor ascending channel Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 30 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Minor uptrend remains intact with key short-term pivotal support at 161.70.Resistances: 162.40 (Fibonacci extension), 162.73/97 (Fibonacci extension), 163.26 (Fibonacci extension & upper boundary of minor ascending channel) (see Fig. 2).Next supports: 161.33 (22/23 Jun 2026 low), 160.90 (19 Jun 2026 low & 20-day MA)Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on USD/JPY Price action in USD/JPY continues to trade above the rising 20- and 50-day moving averages, suggesting that the minor and medium-term uptrend phases remain intact.The bullish breakout above a major range resistance at 161.95 increases the odds of a continuation of the medium-term (multi-week) bullish impulsive up-move sequence in USD/JPY. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data on June 25, 2026. The headline PCE price index rose 0.4% on a month-over-month basis and 4.1% year-over-year, matching the Bloomberg economic calendar consensus forecasts. Meanwhile, the core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy components and serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—increased by 0.3% from the previous month and 3.4% from a year ago, also aligning perfectly with market expectations. The data highlights persistent inflationary pressures, keeping the Federal Reserve under pressure to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.Headline vs. core PCE inflation The Federal Reserve closely monitors core PCE inflation because it strips out the transitory volatility of food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of long-term underlying inflation trends. Additionally, the PCE index accounts for substitution bias—where consumers switch to cheaper alternatives as prices rise—making it a more dynamic measure than the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Personal consumption expenditure - PCE - Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Past performance is not indicative of future results. Metric MoM change YoY change Trend PCE price index 0.4% 4.1% Upward from 3.8% prior Core PCE price index 0.3% 3.4% Upward from 3.3% prior Consumer spending and prices Robust consumer demand: Personal spending rose by 0.7% in May, outpacing the 0.6% forecast, while real personal spending ticked up 0.3%. This indicates that consumer demand remains resilient despite elevated borrowing costs.Income growth: Personal income accelerated sharply by 0.7%, well ahead of the 0.4% consensus estimate, providing households with the financial buffer to sustain spending.Services vs. goods: Services inflation continues to be the primary driver of price stickiness, sustained by steady wage growth and a tight labor market, as evidenced by initial jobless claims dropping to 215k.Cross-comparison with CPI and PPI data The sticky PCE print aligns with the earlier Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which also showed a flattening of the disinflationary trend, particularly in shelter and core services.Compared to the Producer Price Index (PPI) data from earlier in the month, which tracks wholesale costs, input pressures remain uneven. While some manufacturing supply chains have stabilized, the pass-through of resilient service-sector input costs continues to filter into consumer-facing metrics, limiting how quickly final prices can moderate.Macroeconomic and Federal Reserve implications With headline inflation edging up to 4.1% and core PCE sticking at 3.4%, progress toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% average inflation target appears to have stalled. Combined with an upward revision to first-quarter GDP to 2.1% and resilient durable goods orders, the economic backdrop suggests that the FOMC may prolong its “higher for longer” interest rate stance. The probability of near-term rate cuts may diminish, as the central bank requires more conclusive evidence of cooling demand before easing policy. Gain insights from OANDA's market experts and learn how to apply technical analysis tools in a real-time market. Register to attend live webinars hosted by Moheb Hanna, CMT, CFTe.Live strategy session: Real-time news coverage & technical analysis with Moheb Hanna, CMT | Webinars | OANDA | USEUR/USD 1-Hour chart technical analysis EUR/USD 1-hour chart - Source: tradingview.com - Past performance is not indicative of future results Price action and trend analysis Descending Channel Breakout: For the past several days, price action has been tightly contained within a clear descending channel (demarcated by the two solid pink trendlines).Recent Breakout: The most notable recent development is that the price has aggressively broken out above the upper descending trendline.Moving Averages: The price is currently trading above both the EMA (9) and the MA Cross (9, 21), which are starting to curl upward, confirming short-term bullish momentum following the breakout.Pivot points & key levels The chart displays Daily Traditional Pivot Points, providing immediate horizontal structural levels:R2 (Resistance 2): 1.14158R1 (Resistance 1): 1.13872 — The price is currently testing this level.P (Daily Pivot): 1.13559 — Acting as immediate dynamic support.S1 (Support 1): 1.13273S2 (Support 2): 1.12960Indicators (RSI & ATR) RSI (14): Currently sitting at 59.72 and climbing above its yellow moving average line. It has firmly exited the oversold territory seen on the 24th and has room to run before hitting the overbought threshold (70.00), signaling strong bullish momentum.ATR (14): Sitting at 0.00139 (approx. 14 pips). Volatility is ticking up slightly from its recent floor, which aligns with the breakout move.

Key takeaways Micron’s blockbuster earnings have reaffirmed that AI memory demand remains exceptionally strong. Record quarterly revenue, a substantial earnings beat, and robust guidance reinforce the view that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI data centre spending remain supply-constrained despite broader macro uncertainty.The AI investment cycle has regained momentum after a sharp valuation reset. Micron’s results suggest the recent semiconductor selloff was driven more by positioning and valuation concerns than by deteriorating AI fundamentals, triggering a broad recovery across global chip stocks.Falling oil prices continue to improve the macro backdrop for growth assets. The continued unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium is easing inflation concerns and reducing input costs, partially offsetting the headwind from higher-for-longer interest rates.Attention now shifts to US Core PCE inflation. While Micron has significantly improved sentiment toward AI equities, today’s inflation data remains the key macro catalyst determining whether Treasury yields and the US dollar will continue to cap further upside in technology stocks.Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish breakdown below the 200-day moving average, with further potential short-term weakness ahead, below $75.25, a key short-term resistance level.Chart of the day - WTI crude bearish breakdown below key 200-day MA Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 25 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The ongoing 4-week weakness in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the 18 May 2025 high of $109.74/bbl culminated in a bearish breakdown of its key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 24 June 2026.The further deterioration in the technical structure of the West Texas Oil CFD reinforces at least a near-term weakness in oil prices.Watch the $75.25/bbl key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential further drop, exposing the next intermediate supports at $67.40/66.10 and $63.80 (see Fig. 1).However, a clearance above $75.25 invalidates the bearish scenario, opening the door to a minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at $77.39 and $79.23/80.75.Top macro headlines Micron smashes estimates with blockbuster Q3 results and bullish AI outlook: Micron Technology Inc. delivered a monumental fiscal third-quarter earnings beat after the close. Driven by insatiable generative AI demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data-centre DRAM, the chipmaker guided Q4 revenues to an unprecedented $50 billion (plus or minus $1 billion), sending its stock soaring over 15% in extended trading and reinflating the broader tech complex, in turn, triggering a recovery of 1.5% on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures in today’s Asian session.Wall Street Finished mixed in the regular session before an after-hours tech surge: Before Micron’s earnings release, major U.S. indexes exhibited highly fragmented behaviour as investors balanced stretched megacap tech multiples against cyclical value plays. The S&P 500 closed down a minor 0.1% to settle at 7,358, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4% to finish at 29,220. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 182.06 points (0.4%) to close at 51,854, supported by rotation into financials and homebuilders.Crude slumps beneath $78 as Strait of Hormuz transit normalisation deepens: Energy futures contracts extended their downward path as maritime shipping telemetry confirmed that commercial vessels have normalised transits through the Persian Gulf bottleneck. The formal operationalisation of the US-Iran 60-day roadmap and associated temporary petroleum export waivers triggered broad systemic liquidations of long hedges, pushing front-month Brent futures toward $73.38/bbl (-4.8%) and WTI to settle at $69.87/bbl (-4.4%), unwinding the structural war premium.Gold slumps 2.7% to test psychological floors amid aggressive yield pressures: Spot gold experienced a sharp rout, declining 2.7% to settle a whisker below the key $4,000/oz psychological level at $3,999/oz on Wednesday, 24 June. The metal faced persistent liquidation pressure on its asset portfolios, with capital reallocated from yielding safe havens into nominal-yielding assets ahead of the highly anticipated US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release later today.Key macro themes The structural separation of core AI demand from broad cyclical pressures: Micron Technology’s historic earnings and revenue print demonstrates a profound structural bifurcation within global capital expenditure. While traditional industrial proxies like FedEx are flashing signals of slowing global trade volumes and corporate margin compression, physical layer AI infrastructure remains entirely insulated. Because top-tier hyperscalers are fully booking advanced HBM nodes throughout calendar year 2027, chip demand behaves independently of baseline macroeconomic cycles, validating the multi-trillion-dollar valuation expansion across specialised hardware nodes.The transience of geopolitical risk premiums in commodity markets: The continued decline in international energy benchmarks underscores how quickly systemic trend-following funds will withdraw once physical supply paths normalise. The implementation of the US-Iran temporary waiver has converted localised anxieties about maritime scarcity into an immediate prompt-market inventory buffer. As crude contracts trade out of their war premium, the broader macro outlook gains an implicit shield against supply-side inflation, offsetting hawkish central bank liabilities.Intraday multiple compression followed by high-beta volatility release: The sharp regular-session profit-taking across Wall Street growth names, followed by Micron’s explosive 15% after-hours rally, illustrates the extreme sensitivity of modern financial markets to real-time information flow. Operating under a higher-for-longer baseline cost of capital, public equity indices are intensely compressing multiples during regular cash hours whenever concrete forward-looking data is absent. However, once a key structural anchor delivers a clean, undeniable demand beat, institutional capital rapidly re-enters high-beta growth ecosystems, compressing short positioning.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Regular-session trading saw the S&P 500 edge down 0.1% and the Nasdaq-100 drop 0.4%. However, Micron’s massive post-market Q3 beat sent its shares up 15% to $1,213 in after-hours trading, triggering a wave of buying that lifted major semiconductor and hardware indices across the Asia-Pacific region. The Dow Jones (DJIA) added 0.4% during cash hours. The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rebounded by 0.4% and 1.6% in today’s Asian session.Fixed Income: Global bond curves experienced minor stabilisation. The short-duration US 2-year Treasury yield fluctuated near 4.15% while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield consolidated around 4.40%. Portfolios maintained a steady posture, adjusting for the upcoming sovereign note supply and highly anticipated US PCE inflation data out later today.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its bullish tone, extending its gains by 0.2% to settle at 101.36, a 13-month high on Wednesday, 26 June. In the past 24 hours, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have been the weakest among the major currencies, dropping by 0.1% and 0.2% against the greenback to trade at 0.6893 and 0.5641 in today’s Asian session.Commodities: Front-month Brent crude futures fell to $73.38/bbl as the normalisation of the Gulf shipping transit normalised localised risk premiums. In today’s Asian session, it extended its losses by 1.3% to $72.88/bbl, its lowest level since early March 2026.Spot gold prices remained soft and extending its decline by 0.4% in today’s Asian session to trade at $3,981/oz intraday, a 7-month low, driven by capital shifting away from non-yielding hedges toward higher-yielding alternatives.Asia Pacific impact Asian tech centres positioned for substantial rebound on Micron: The explosive after-hours performance of Micron is set to trigger intensive upward tracking across North Asian electronics centres. South Korea’s chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, alongside Taiwan’s semiconductor giants, face significant upside momentum as the verified revenue records ease concerns about localised AI hardware spending limits. South Korea’s KOSPI (+6%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (+1%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+3.7%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.7%), Singapore’s STI (+0.2%). In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-1.1%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.1%) underperformed.Yen consolidates extensively near multi-decade intervention floor: The Japanese yen remains under intense pressure against the greenback, pinning USD/JPY near 161.70, below a key major resistance at 161.95. Wide interest rate differentials continue to favour the US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan policy authorities highly vigilant for localised measures to smooth volatility if speculative yen dumping accelerates.Regional importers absorb lower near-term input energy outlays: Energy-dependent bourses across the APAC region continue to capture real-time current-account benefits from the downward trend in Brent crude prices, lowering input costs for raw manufacturing materials and softening the immediate impact of local currency depreciation against the broad-based strength of the US dollar.Top 3 economic releases/events to watch today Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: -27.6, Jun: -29.8) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Core PCE Inflation Index (May) - 8:30 pm (SGT) (consensus: 3.4% y/y, Apr: 3.3% y/y) Impact: All asset classesFed Speak (Williams) - Friday, 3:40 am (SGT) Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indices Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Micron remains one of the strongest AI winners of 2026 despite the recent semiconductor selloff. The stock has surged 268% year-to-date and 227% since 30 March, significantly outperforming the SOX Index and Nasdaq 100.The earnings report is less about historical numbers and more about visibility into future AI demand. Investors will focus on HBM demand, DRAM and NAND pricing trends, gross margin expansion, and management’s forward guidance.Expectations are exceptionally high. A strong beat alone may not be sufficient. Micron likely needs a clear “beat-and-raise” outcome, reinforced by positive commentary on AI memory demand and supply constraints, to sustain its uptrend.Technically, Micron is showing signs of medium-term exhaustion. Bearish divergences in relative strength and momentum indicators suggest that even strong earnings could trigger a “sell-the-news” reaction if guidance falls short of elevated expectations. Despite the rampant sell-off in global semiconductor/AI-infrastructure stocks on Tuesday, 23 June 2026, Micron Technology (MU) is still recording an enormous year-to-date return of 268% as of 23 June 2026, clearly surpassing the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOX) and Nasdaq 100 by a wide margin (see Fig. 1). and the bulk of MU’s gains came from the recent medium-term uptrend from the 30 March 2026 to 23 June 2026 with a whopping gain of 227% (see Fig. 2). Fig.1: Micron, SOX, Mag 7 & US stock indices YTD performance as of 23 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig.2: Micron, SOX, Mag 7 & US stock indices performances from 30 Mar 2026 to 24 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. AI memory demand, pricing power and guidance are the main focuses Ahead of its earnings release for FYQ3 later today after the close of the US session, Micron Technology remains a key barometer for the AI hardware cycle, with investor focus centred on high-bandwidth memory demand, DRAM/NAND pricing momentum, gross margin expansion, and forward guidance.The market is looking for confirmation that AI-related memory demand remains supply-constrained, supported by strong hyperscaler spending and tighter industry inventory conditions.While headline revenue and EPS growth are expected to be robust, share price performance will likely hinge on whether management can deliver a convincing beat-and-raise narrative.Strong HBM commentary, firmer memory pricing, and margin upside would reinforce Micron’s position as a core beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, supporting further valuation upside.Conversely, any signs of pricing fatigue, margin pressure, or softer forward demand could trigger profit-taking, especially given the stock’s strong rally and elevated earnings expectations.Medium-term technical outlook for Micron Technology (MU) (1 to 3 weeks) Fig.3: Micron Technology (MU) medium-term trend as of 23 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bearish reversal below 1,214 key medium-term pivotal resistance within major uptrend phase (see Fig. 3).Supports: 989.15 (also the 20-day moving average), 818,67 (also the 50-day moving average), and 651.74Next resistances: 1,353/473 and 1,666 (Fibonacci extension cluster)Key elements to support the medium-term bearish bias on MU The prior two days of price action on 22 June 2026 and 23 June 2026 have staged a bearish reaction at the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from the 31 March 2026 low of 311.49, suggesting the medium-term uptrend phase may have reached exhaustion.The daily volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of MU against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) has hit a resistance at 10.35 on Tuesday, 23 June 2026.The daily RSI momentum indicator has just broken below a key ascending support after a prior bearish divergence condition at its overbought region. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The correction in AI and semiconductor stocks has broadened beyond isolated names into a wider valuation reset. Investors are increasingly questioning whether the pace of AI-related capital expenditure can continue to justify current earnings multiples, triggering profit-taking across technology and hardware leaders.The US dollar has emerged as the dominant macro driver. The breakout of the Dollar Index above the key 101.00 level, supported by elevated Treasury yields and a higher-for-longer Fed narrative, is exerting pressure on risk assets, commodities, and Asia-Pacific currencies.The unwinding of the Middle East war premium continues to accelerate. Iranian export waivers and normalised shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil prices to multi-month lows, creating a favourable backdrop for energy-importing economies but weighing heavily on energy producers.Chart of the day: AUD/USD medium-term downtrend remains intact; intraday minor corrective rebound may be exhausted below the 0.6960 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - Potential minor bounce in AUD/USD before new bearish leg Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor trend as of 24 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The AUD/USD has continued its medium-term downward spiral since the 13 May 2026 high of 0.7272 and extended its losses on Tuesday, 23 June by 1.2% to settle at a 2-month low of 0.6916 on the backdrop of rising risk aversion (see Fig. 1).Tuesday’s steep intraday drop has led the hourly RSI momentum indicator to flash a bullish divergence in its oversold region, suggesting an imminent minor corrective/dead cat bounce.Watch the 0.6960 key short-term pivotal resistance on the AUD/USD for the potential minor corrective rebound to get exhausted close to below it, with the next immediate supports coming in at 0.6900 and 0.6876/6863 (also close to the 200-day moving average).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.6960 invalidates the bearish tone for an extension of the minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.6985 and 0.7020.Top macro headlines Global tech selloff rattles Wall Street as valuation pressures broaden: The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.3 %, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.37% as investors aggressively locked in profits across semiconductor and hardware heavyweights, also dragged down by weakness in semiconductor-centric South Korea’s KOSPI (-10%). The widespread selloff reflected mounting institutional anxiety regarding the sustainability of elevated capital expenditure trends relative to intermediate-term AI monetisation timelines, forcing a broad risk-off rotation into defensive value stocks.Continuation of US Dollar Index positive follow-through after last week’s major range bullish breakout, cleared above 101.00: The greenback caught a ferocious safe-haven bid across global cash sessions, fracturing long-term technical and structural consolidation bands to hover near 101.40. The breakout was fueled by widening global interest-rate differentials, persistent core inflation revisions out of Europe, and broader defensive positioning amid systemic volatility in equities.Brent Crude sinks under $80 as operationalisation of Iranian waivers unwinds war premium: Front-month Brent crude oil futures extended losses by 1.5% to settle at $76.73/bbl on Tuesday, 23 June. The downward pressure accelerated as the US Treasury’s 60-day temporary export waivers for Iranian petroleum officially began shifting physical maritime flows, significantly alleviating immediate shipping anxieties in the Strait of Hormuz and triggering systematic trend-follower bearish liquidations.Key macro themes The broadening valuation discipline across high-beta growth sectors: The simultaneous correction in megacap chip equities and public-market newcomer SpaceX (SPCX) signals an organic shift in institutional risk appetite. Rather than blindly funding continuous, open-ended capital expenditure pools, global asset allocators are beginning to demand clearer visibility on structural intermediate net income generation. With the cost of equity capital structurally elevated due to sticky short-end yields, growth multiples are encountering an organic compression phase, transitioning the macro environment away from pure thematic momentum toward strict balance-sheet discipline.The disruption of sovereign supply waves in short-duration fixed income: The upward repricing of the US 2-year Treasury yield demonstrates the compounding friction of sovereign debt expansion on the depth of institutional liquidity. As the US Treasury forces rolling multi-billion-dollar auctions onto primary dealers, market participants are extracting a structurally higher baseline term premium. This dynamic prevents long-duration yields from falling significantly, effectively introducing a persistent floor under global corporate borrowing costs and blunting the impact of any potential central bank policy easing cycles.Geopolitical risk escalation and commodity hedge liquidations: The swift operationalisation of the US-Iran 60-day implementation roadmap underscores the inherent fragility of geopolitical war premiums within the energy complex. Systematic macro funds and options desks that had built extensive long crude hedges are rapidly liquidating exposures as physical maritime telemetry confirms normalised merchant shipping flows through the critical Strait of Hormuz bottleneck. This injection of Persian Gulf oil supply is accelerating near-term energy cost deflation, offering localised breathing room to heavy energy-importing regions.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.3% to close under pressure, while the S&P 500 slid 1.4% to finish at 7,365, closing below the 20-day moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the broader risk-off trend, closed almost unchanged on Tuesday, 23 June, supported by defensive health care stocks.Fixed Income: Selling pressure dominated short-duration curves globally. The 2-year US Treasury yield remained firm at 4.2%, while the 10-year US Treasury yield traded above its 20-day moving average (4.49%) for the second consecutive session, settling at 4.50%.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) staged an aggressive technical breakout past long-term range barriers amid risk aversion in global equities. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar dropped by 1.2%, hitting a 2-month low of 0.6916 against the greenback.The British pound also wobbled, trading down 0.4% to settle at 1.3203 on Tuesday, looking to retest a 3-month low of 1.3160 amid waiting for clarity on the UK’s new Prime Minister’s policies. The Japanese yen continued to hover near the 161.95 multi-decade intervention threshold. Commodities: Energy markets suffered extensive liquidation, with front-month Brent and WTI crude futures extending losses by 1.5% and 1.4% to settle at $76.73/bbl and $73.05/bbl on Tuesday, 23 June, while holding above their respective 200-day moving averages.Spot gold continued its downward spiral, settling at $4,110/oz, just a whisker away from the 11 June 2026 low of $4,024/oz as surging sovereign bond yields and a dominant US dollar eroded its non-yielding appeal.Asia Pacific impact South Korean and Taiwanese tech stocks bear the brunt of global liquidation: The global semiconductor rout sparked immediate downside tracking across APAC semiconductor stocks. South Korea’s KOSPI index suffered a dramatic 10% sell-off on Tuesday, 23 June, as foreign institutional capital flowed out of structural hardware leaders such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Intraday softness continued to prevail in today’s Asian session; Japan’s Nikkei 2225 (-1.6%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+0.5%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (-2.4%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (unchanged), China’s CSI 300 (+0.1%), Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.1%), and Singapore STI (+0.2%).Japanese yen tests policy-intervention boundary near 161.95: Wide real interest rate differentials continued to punish the Yen, locking USD/JPY below the critical 161.95 threshold. Despite increasingly stringent verbal warnings from Finance Minister Katayama regarding spot-market smoothing operations, macro funds are actively testing the central bank’s true pain threshold. Currently, the USD/JPY 161.55 intraday after Tuesday’s tight range movement of only 48 pips.Regional energy importers may capture input-cost windfalls: The collapse of Brent crude below $80/bbl is translating into an immediate structural current-account cushion for energy-dependent Asian economies such as China and India. The normalisation of Persian Gulf supply lowers immediate manufacturing input costs and insulates domestic trade balances from the rising US dollar.Top 5 events to watch today RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Speech - 2.30 pm SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crossesBoJ Deputy Governor Himino Speech - 2.40 pm SGT Impact: USD/JPY, JPY crossesGermany Ifo Business Climate (Jun) - 4:00 pm SGT (consensus: 85.6, May: 84.9) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXEIA Weekly Crude Oil Stockpile Change - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI crude oil futuresMicron Technology FYQ3 Earnings (after US close) Impact: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USDCHF has strengthened sharply, rising 1.3% this week and more than 3.3% since the start of the month, supported by a stronger US dollar and weaker Swiss francThe Fed’s hawkish tone boosted the dollar, as markets increased expectations for a possible US rate hike after Kevin Warsh emphasized price stability and the fight against inflationThe Swiss franc came under pressure after the SNB kept rates at 0% and signaled readiness to intervene in the FX market to prevent excessive franc appreciation, which supports the upward bias in USDCHF The USDCHF pair has strengthened noticeably in recent days. This week, the exchange rate rose by 1.3%, and since the beginning of the current month it has gained more than 3.3%. This move has been driven mainly by a combination of a stronger dollar and a weaker Swiss franc, which came under pressure following the Swiss National Bank’s statement.On the US side, the key factor was the FOMC’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged in the 3.5–3.75% range, as well as Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Warsh strongly emphasized that the Fed’s priority remains price stability, meaning the fight against inflation. Investors interpreted this message as a signal that the US central bank could return to rate hikes sooner if incoming data confirm persistent price pressures.As a result, expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy in the United States increased. The market began pricing in the possibility of a rate hike within the next six weeks as a scenario close to a 50% probability. This supported the dollar, especially against lower-yielding currencies such as the Swiss franc. Probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate range for individual meetings, based on futures contracts, source: CME Fedwatch Tool The SNB keeps rates unchanged but warns against an excessively strong FrancIn Switzerland, the Swiss National Bank kept its main interest rate at 0%, while at the same time emphasizing its readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market. This means that, if necessary, the SNB may sell francs to limit an excessively rapid and excessive appreciation of the currency.For the market, this was an important signal. The franc remains one of the key safe-haven currencies, which is why it often strengthens during periods of geopolitical tension. However, the SNB indicated that an overly strong currency could harm the economy, especially exporters, and further reduce inflation. After the statement, the franc weakened against the euro, confirming that investors interpreted the central bank’s stance as a factor limiting the Swiss currency’s appreciation potential. Daily timeframe of EURCHF, source: TradingView Inflation in Switzerland currently stands at 0.6% and remains within the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. The bank slightly raised its inflation forecast for this year from 0.5% to 0.6%, while expecting only moderate price growth in the following years. At the same time, the economic growth forecast remained unchanged, assuming growth of around 1% this year and 1.5% next year. This shows that the SNB’s main concern is currently not inflation, but the exchange rate of the franc. Switzerland inflation rate, source: Trading Economics Diverging central bank stances support USDCHFThe current situation in USDCHF clearly reflects the divergence between Fed and SNB policy. The Federal Reserve is signaling greater determination in fighting inflation and may be ready to tighten monetary policy further. The SNB, by contrast, is keeping rates at 0% and is focused primarily on preventing excessive appreciation of the franc.This combination supports further gains in USDCHF. The dollar is benefiting from higher expectations for US interest rates, while the franc remains under pressure due to the SNB’s readiness to act in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the temporary agreement in the Middle East reduced demand for safe-haven assets, which also limited interest in the franc.The market will remain sensitive to data and geopoliticsIn the coming weeks, the performance of USDCHF will depend mainly on two factors: US macroeconomic data and the level of geopolitical tensions. If inflation in the United States remains elevated and the Fed maintains a firm tone, the dollar may continue to strengthen. Warsh has announced less predictable communication and greater dependence of decisions on incoming data, which could increase volatility in the currency market. On the other hand, a decline in oil prices, weaker economic growth or lower inflation readings could reduce expectations for US rate hikes and therefore weigh on the dollar. For the franc, the key issue will remain whether geopolitical tensions rise again. A return of risk aversion could increase demand for the Swiss currency, although the SNB has clearly suggested that it will counteract any excessively sharp appreciation.USDCHF maintains a bullish bias Daily timeframe USDCHF, source: TradingView For now, the balance of fundamental factors supports further strength in USDCHF. The pair is benefiting both from dollar appreciation following the Fed’s hawkish message and from franc weakness after the SNB’s statement. The 1.3% weekly rise and the gain of more than 3.3% since the beginning of the month show that investors are clearly shifting capital toward the US currency. As long as the market continues to price in the possibility of rate hikes in the United States, while the SNB signals readiness to limit franc strength, USDCHF may remain under upward pressure. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has accelerated the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. Crude oil has fallen sharply, with WTI posting a 10% weekly decline as Gulf oil exports resume and supply concerns ease, supporting global risk sentiment and reducing near-term inflation pressures.The US dollar remains the dominant beneficiary of the Fed’s hawkish pivot. Following Chair Kevin Warsh’s shift toward a data-dependent, higher-for-longer policy framework, the US Dollar Index broke above a major resistance level, while the euro, pound, gold, and other rate-sensitive assets remained under pressure.Global equities are entering a consolidation phase despite improved geopolitical conditions. Wall Street rallied strongly on optimism over a peace deal, but profit-taking emerged in US futures and parts of Asia as traders navigate reduced liquidity ahead of the Juneteenth holiday and reassess the implications of restrictive monetary policy.Chart of the day: WTI crude has established a near-term floor at the 200-day moving average. Watch the $75.25/73.40/bbl key near-term support for a potential short-term rebound.Chart of the day - WFT crude’s 10% plunge stabilised at 200-day moving average Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 19 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 10% plunge in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the start of this week has reached an inflexion point for a potential near-term rebound.The decline has begun to stall at the key 200-day moving average, which price has traded above since early February 2026, before the start of the US-Iran war. In addition, the hourly RS momentum has flashed a bullish divergence in its oversold region, suggesting that bearish momentum is starting to wane (see Fig. 1).Watch the 75.25/73.40 key short-term pivotal support for a potential short-term rebound scenario to unfold towards the next intermediate resistances at 80.75 and 82.98/84.94 (gap down area of Monday, 15 June 2026).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 73.40 would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario, extending the bearish impulsive down-move sequence to expose the next support levels at 70.25 and 67.40/66.10.Top macro headlines Strait of Hormuz reopens as U.S.-Iran peace deal takes effect: The historic U.S.-Iran peace agreement officially went into effect over the past 24 hours, bringing a definitive end to the highly disruptive maritime blockade. Shipping tracking data confirmed that tankers holding nearly 10 million barrels of crude are actively moving through the critical chokepoint, including the first Saudi-owned vessels since the conflict began. In tandem, Kuwait announced plans to swiftly ramp up crude production back toward 2 million barrels per day within the week, severely deflating the geopolitical risk premium.Wall Street stages massive 2.5% relief rally ahead of Juneteenth holiday: U.S. stock benchmarks surged on Thursday as geopolitical de-escalation sparked aggressive risk-on buying. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge, soaring 2.5% on secular tech tailwinds and mega-cap momentum. The S&P 500 advanced 1.1% to cap off trading before Friday’s full market closure in observance of the Juneteenth national holiday. In contrast, SpaceX tumbled for the second consecutive session, losing 3.6%, and ended Thursday at $185.00, still above last Friday’s debut closing price of $160.95.Crude oil suffers severe liquidation, crashing 10% for the week: Energy markets experienced a massive unwinding of long positions as supply anxieties evaporated. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude plunged below $75 before stabilising at $76.83/bbl, marking its lowest level since the earliest days of the Middle East conflict. Brent crude similarly succumbed to selling pressure, settling firmly under the key $80 threshold at $79.25/bbl as global supply channels normalised.Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields remained below last week’s highs: The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 3 basis points to settle at 4.45%. However, the short end of the curve remains highly inverted and elevated following the surprise “hawkish vibes” from newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the updated dot plot, keeping fixed-income participants structurally on edge. The 2-year US Treasury yield remained steady at 4.18% as it retested its 4-week range top.Gold dropped lower to $4,209 on the backdrop of a hawkish Fed: Spot gold prices fell 1.1% to settle near $4,209 an ounce. The precious metal faced a dual headwind from an appreciating U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s higher-for-longer baseline, and a sharp reduction in safe-haven demand as shipping corridors across the Middle East successfully reopened.Key macro themes The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and unwinding of the war premium: The formal implementation of the U.S.-Iran accord has triggered a rapid recalibration of global commodity supply curves. Front-month energy contracts had spent months pricing in a worst-case structural blockade scenario. With tracking data showing immediate, real-time flows of millions of barrels of crude out of the Gulf, the speculative war premium has completely dissolved. This influx of near-term physical supply shifts the energy narrative from structural deficits back to a projected supply expansion heading into the latter half of the year.Post-Fed yield Curve flattening under the “Warsh Era”: While the broader market celebrated geopolitical breakthroughs, fixed-income horizons continue to digest the monumental communication shift introduced by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. By eradicating forward guidance and elevating the 2026 core PCE forecast to 3.3%, the Fed has locked in a highly restrictive near-term floor. Thursday’s bond activity reflected a pronounced flattening of the yield curve; long-end yields dipped on peace headlines, but short-term instruments (2-year US Treasury yield) remain rigidly anchored to the reality that rate cuts have been eradicated.Holiday liquidity drain and shifting global sessions: With U.S. cash equity and Treasury markets entirely closed today, Friday, June 19, for the Juneteenth holiday, global liquidity is experiencing an abrupt structural drop. Settlement cycles are paused, leaving international sessions in Europe and Asia to digest the massive macro shifts of the past 24 hours without the buffer of Wall Street’s active order book.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The Nasdaq 100 rallied 2.5% to lead the session, driven by outperformance among mega-cap tech stocks. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to close out the pre-holiday week on a positive note. Small caps followed the risk-on move, with the Russell 2000 closing up 2.1%, reversing a multi-session downward trend.However, in today’s Asia opening session, the E-mini futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 declined by 0.5% and 0.7% as US Vice President JP Vance delays trip for Iran talks as the 60-day countdown starts to reach a nuclear agreement and a permanent US-Iran peace deal. Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds stabilised as long-term inflation risk premiums eased with lower oil prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.45% but remains above its 50-day moving average at around 4.40%. Conversely, short-term yields hovered near multi-decade highs, locking the curve in a deep inversion following the FOMC’s hawkish dot plot shift.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index remained firmly supported near recent highs, underpinned by the Fed’s upgraded economic projections, and broke above the 100.55 major range resistance level, which had been in place since May 2025.The euro and the British pound extended their losses by 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively, for the second consecutive session on Thursday, trading at 3-month lows of 1.1458 and 1.3205 against the greenback. Commodities: WTI crude plummeted below $74 before recovering slightly to settle near $75.50/bbl, holding right at the key 200-day moving average after a steep 10% decline on the week. Brent crude followed suit, closing under $80.00 at US$79.25/bbl on Thursday. Spot gold slid 1.4 % to close at $4,209 and extended its losses by 1.4% in today’s Asian session to hover close to the 11 June 2026 low of $4,024/oz. Asia Pacific impact Profit-taking activities in South Korean stocks after Thursday’s rally towards record highs on semi-tailwinds: KOSPI dropped by 1.2 on Friday, in line with intraday weakness seen in Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures, but the South Korean benchmark index is still up 10% for the week.Yen remains wrapped in extreme intervention territory: The Japanese yen weakened towards the 161 handle, hitting an almost 2-year low of 161.81 on Thursday, just a whisker away from 161.95 per US dollar, which was printed on 10 July 2024 and triggered intervention by Japanese authorities. Wide interest-rate differentials, driven by Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish policy stance, ensure that the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance remain on high alert for immediate spot-market smoothing.Australian markets dragged down by BHP operational pressures: Defying the broader regional rally, Australia’s ASX 200 opened in negative territory on Friday (-1.1%). The index was dragged down by a sharp 4% drop in BHP shares following unexpected operational constraints at one of its major Canadian production facilities, offsetting regional macro optimism.Top 3 events to watch today Germany PPI (May) - 2:00 PM SGT (consensus: 2.5% y/y, Apr: 1.7% y/y) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUK Retail Sales (May) - 2.00 PM SGT (consensus: 1.9% y/y, Apr: 0% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane's Speech - 3.10 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold and signalled a major policy regime shift. While rates remained unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, Chair Kevin Warsh abolished traditional forward guidance, reinforcing a data-dependent approach and increasing the likelihood of higher market volatility.Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations pressured risk assets. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%, Treasury yields rose, and the US dollar strengthened as investors repriced the probability of another Fed rate hike before the end of 2026.Markets remain caught between easing geopolitical risks and restrictive monetary policy. While the official US-Iran interim peace agreement supported equity futures and pushed oil prices lower, the Fed’s hawkish stance continues to weigh on equity valuations, gold, and other rate-sensitive assets.Chart of the day: GBP/USD’s intraday plunge overextended, watch 1.3280/3262 key short-term pivotal support for a potential relief corrective rebound.Chart of the day - Relief bounce for GBP/USD as BoE looms Fig. 1: GBP/USD minor trend as of 18 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Wednesday’s 1% plunge in GBP/USD was the worst single-day performance in nine months, reinforced by the Fed’s hawkish hold on monetary policy.Interestingly, yesterday’s drop has now stalled right after a retest of the medium-term ascending trendline for GBP/USD, in place since the 4 November 2025 low, ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy decision out later today at 7.00 p.m SGT (see Fig. 1).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just exited its oversold region after hitting an extreme level of 15.8 ex-post the FOMC, suggesting a potential minor relief-bounce for GBP/USD at this juncture.Watch the 1.3280/3262 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the 1.3325 near-term resistance reinforces the minor corrective rebound scenario towards the next intermediate resistances at 1.3360 and 1.3385.However, a break with an hourly close below 1.3262 invalidates the relief bounce to continue the bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.3237 and 1.3210 on an intraday basis.Top macro headlines Fed holds rates steady, but policy shocks markets with hawkish shift: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate at its target range of 3.50% to 3.75%. However, the central bank’s updated economic projections delivered a hawkish surprise: 9 out of 19 officials now anticipate at least one interest rate increase before the end of 2026, forcing markets to aggressively price out near-term easing cycles.Chair Kevin Warsh triggers Fed "regime change” by killing forward guidance: In his highly anticipated debut press conference, newly appointed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh structurally overhauled the central bank’s communications playbook. Warsh delivered a drastically shortened committee statement and explicitly abolished traditional forward guidance, stating that financial markets operate best when reacting directly to real economic data rather than central bank hints. He also launched five new internal task forces to review the Fed’s balance sheet, communication framework, and inflation models.Wall Street slumps 1% as higher-for-longer projections rattle tech: U.S. stock benchmarks plunged in the closing minutes of the regular session as investors digested the shifting interest-rate dot plot. The S&P 500 slid 1.2%, alongside a 1% fall in the Nasdaq 100, completely wiping out early-session cyclical gains as rate-sensitive megacaps faced intense liquidation pressure.IEA warns of historic oil inventory depletion despite reopening framework: In its monthly global energy report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil inventories could hit historic lows over the coming months. Although Bloomberg published a 14-point memorandum detailing a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore toll-free commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, the IEA emphasised that physical export normalisation will remain highly gradual due to steep operational bottlenecks.Trump expresses full confidence in Warsh’s rate stance: President Donald Trump reacted mildly to the Fed’s hawkish hold, telling reporters, "It’s all right, whatever”. When questioned on the growing likelihood of an additional rate hike later this year, Trump acknowledged it “could happen” but reiterated his complete confidence in the new Chair, stating he is guided by what Warsh wants to do.Key macro themes The eradication of forward guidance and return to data dependency: Chair Kevin Warsh has officially initiated a monumental regime change in the Federal Reserve’s relationship with public capital markets. By removing forward-looking linguistic roadmaps from the policy statement, the central bank has effectively blindfolded traders who rely on pre-commitment signals. Warsh’s philosophy shifts the burden of price discovery entirely back to incoming economic data. While this may minimise the Fed’s vulnerability to blind feedback loops, it introduces a structurally higher baseline of volatility across global bond and equity horizons.The friction between paper accords and physical energy reality: The crude complex is navigating a stark disconnect between geopolitical diplomatic announcements and structural supply limits. Front-month futures contracts have been aggressively extracting the war premium on the back of the newly published 14-point U.S.-Iran memorandum. However, as the IEA explicitly highlighted, a political agreement cannot instantly clear physical distribution channels. Demining delays, insurance recalibrations, and logistical constraints mean that global structural inventory depletion will worsen before an anticipated supply surplus materialises next year.Valuation compression hits richly priced public equities: The upward shift in the Fed’s median dot plot—with half of the committee now signalling that a rate hike may be required before the year concludes, has forced an abrupt recalculation of equity risk premiums. Growth and technology names, which had brushed off sticky inflation metrics under the assumption of an impending autumn easing cycle, are highly vulnerable to this "higher-for-longer" baseline adjustment. With the cost of capital remaining structurally locked at multi-decade highs, equity multiples are under organic pressure.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 slumped 1.2% to settle at 7,420, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered a 507-point drop (1.0%) to finish at 51,498, reversing an intraday gain of 0.5% recorded earlier in the morning session. Small caps shared the pain, with the Russell 2000 closing down 0.7%.In today’s Asia opening session, the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recovered by 0.8% and 1.4% reinforced by the official signing of the US-Iran interim peace deal by US President Trump.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds faced steep selling pressure as rate-cut bets were unwound. US Treasury yields climbed across the curve, pushing long-duration yields higher. Driven by the hawkish shifts, the benchmark U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to an estimated 6.62%, up from 6.54% the prior day.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index caught an aggressive safe-haven bid in late New York trading following Warsh’s remarks. The euro and British pound gave up intraday gains and traded under pressure, dropping by 0.9% and 1% by the close of Wednesday’s session. The Japanese yen edged lower, remaining highly sensitive to widening yield spreads and trading near the recent intervention threshold of 160.65.Commodities: Front-month international energy contracts inched lower in line with the broader risk-off equity slide, with Brent crude futures sliding 0.9% to near $78.66/bbl despite the IEA’s warning about inventory depletion. Spot gold fell 1.7% to settle near $4,258/oz after a bearish reaction below the 20-day moving average as surging nominal yields diminished the appeal of non-yielding safe havens. Asia Pacific impact Mixed performances: The current bounce seen in the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have managed to negate the overnight weakness inflicted on US stock indices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged by 2% to another intraday record high of 71, 330. Also, another fresh high was seen on South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.7%). In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Australia’s ASX 200 underperformed, posting intraday losses of 1.7% and 0.6%.Yen remains locked near key intervention floor: The Japanese yen continues to hug the critical 160.65 level per US dollar. With the Federal Reserve signalling a sustained restrictive policy stance, wide interest-rate differentials continue to favour the greenback, keeping the Bank of Japan on high alert for spot-market smoothing operations.Regional importers absorb elevated near-term energy costs: Despite long-term optimism about the upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Asian refiners are continuing to draw down costly near-term stockpiles. The IEA’s confirmation of multi-month transit bottlenecks ensures input energy constraints will linger for non-OPEC APAC economies through the summer.Top 3 events to watch today BoE Interest Rate Decision - 7.00 PM SGT (consensus: on hold at 3.75%) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100, UK GiltsUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 PM SGT Impact: USD, US stock indices, short-end US TreasuriesUS Conference Board Leading Index (May) - 10:00 PM SGT (consensus: 0.1% m/m, Apr: 0.1% m/m) Impact: US stock indices, USD Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The June FOMC meeting is a communication event rather than a rate decision event. Markets fully expect rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, with the real focus on the dot plot, inflation forecasts, policy language, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference.Markets have rapidly repriced toward a higher-for-longer Fed. Fed funds futures now imply a 77% probability of a rate hike by December 2026, up sharply from 24% a month ago, despite the recent collapse in oil prices following the US-Iran interim peace agreement.A hawkish hold remains the base-case scenario. A higher dot plot, upward inflation revisions, and a less dovish policy bias would likely support the US dollar while weighing on Gold, the Nasdaq 100, EUR/USD, and AUD/USD. The 17 June 2026 FOMC is not a normal “rate decision only” event. The market already expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, so the real trading signal will come from the dot plot, economic projections, policy-statement language, and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first press conference.Based on the latest data from CME FedWatch tool, US Fed funds futures are now pricing around 77% chance of a rate hike by December (see Fig. 1), up sharply from 24% a month earlier, despite lower oil prices since the start of the week due to US-Iran interim peace deal agreement, which means the market has already shifted from “rate-cut hope” to “higher-for-longer or even hike risk.” Fig. 1: CME FedWatch tool aggregated FOMC meeting outcome probabilities as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: CME website). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The release of the FOMCE statement, interest rate decision, and “dot” plot (economic projections) will be on 18 June, 2.00 am SGT, followed by Warsh’s press conference at 2.30 am SGT.The biggest mistake would be to trade only the first 2:00 am SGT candle. The initial move can easily reverse once Warsh starts speaking at 2:30 am SGT, especially because this is his first press conference and markets are trying to understand whether he will be more hawkish, less predictable, or less willing to give forward guidance.The core market set-up The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged, but that does not mean the meeting is neutral. The risk is in the message.The market participants want to know four things:Will the Fed remove its previous easing bias?Will the dot plot show fewer cuts or even some hikes?Will inflation forecasts be revised higher?Will Warsh sound as if he is preparing markets for a possible hike later this year?Media outlets reported that most policymakers are expected to keep rates on hold for 2026, but some may pencil in a hike. That would be a hawkish shift from March, when the Fed was still leaning more toward eventual cuts.Hence, this makes the meeting a communication shock event, not a rate-shock event.Base case: Hawkish hold The most likely outcome is a hawkish hold.The Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% but removes language suggesting the next move is likely to be a cut. The dot plot shifts higher. Inflation projections are revised up. Warsh says policy must remain flexible and data-dependent, but does not validate market hopes for easing.This is the scenario markets are partly prepared for, but not fully. The trade reaction depends on how far the dot plot and Warsh go.Likely cross-asset reaction Asset Potential expected reaction US Dollar Index Bullish EUR/USD Bearish GBP/USD Bearish AUD/USD Bearish USD/JPY Bullish but risky, fast approaching 160.65 intervention risk level Gold Bearish WTI crude Bearish but dominated by geopolitics Dow Jones Industrial Average Bearish to choppy S&P 500 Bearish to choppy Nasdaq 100 Bearish, highest sensitivity Let’s now focus on the short-term technical charts and key levels to monitor.EUR/USD – Stalled at around the 20-day moving average Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The EUR/USD is likely one of the “cleaner” Fed trades because it is highly sensitive to US interest-rate repricing and dollar direction (the euro has the largest weight in the US Dollar Index).Watch the 1.1645/1660 short-term pivotal resistance to maintain the bearish bias; a break below 1.1575 (Tuesday, 16 June low) reinforces a potential drop towards the intermediate supports of 1.1554 and 1.1510 (minor range bottom of 8 June/12 June 2026) (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 1.1660 would invalidate the bearish tone and extend the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 1.1685 and 1.1720.AUD/USD – Potential bearish reversal below 20-day moving average Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. AUD/USD is probably the best high-beta FX expression of a hawkish Fed. The Australian dollar tends to weaken when US Treasury yields rise and global risk appetite wanes.On Tuesday, 16 June 2026, the RBA kept its policy cash rate on hold at 4.35% after three consecutive rate hikes, but warned that the current interest rate hike cycle may be over, which provides some form of support for the Australian dollar, but a hawkish Fed is likely to tilt the macro narrative and dominate in the near-termThe recent minor corrective rebound seen on the AUD/USD from the 11 June 2025 low area of 0.6980 is now fast approaching an inflexion level of 0.7120 (the medium-term descending trendline in place since the 13 May 2026 high and 20-day moving average.Watch the 0.7120 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential bearish reversal. Breaking below 0.70300 (close to the ex-post RBA low of 0.7042) reinforces the bearish tone and exposes the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6960/6945 in the first step (see Fig. 3).However, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7120 invalidate the bearish scenario for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7140 (also the 50-day moving average), and possibly 0.7190 thereafter.Nasdaq 100 – Losing bullish momentum Fig. 4: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is the most rate-sensitive of the major US benchmark stock indices. If the Fed removes its easing bias and the dot plot shifts higher (implying one rate hike in 2027), the Nasdaq 00 should underperform the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500.Monday’s monstrous gap-up rally in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures), triggered by the US-Iran interim peace deal, has started to show signs of near-term bullish exhaustion below the current all-time high area of 30,728/795.Watch the 30,530 key short-term pivotal resistance, with intermediate supports at 30,015 and 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 4).A break below the critical 29,700 suggests that Monday’s gap-up is likely a bull trap, and the bears may gain the upper hand to push prices lower towards 29,170 and even the key medium-term support of 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).On the flipside, a break above 30,530 is likely to probe the current all-time high area of 30,728/795 (Tuesday, 16 June’s bearish reaction), and a clearance above 30,795 triggers a potential extension of the bullish impulsive up move sequence towards the next intermediate resistances at 31,125 and 31,450 (Fibonacci extension). Fig. 5: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gold is the clearest expression of this FOMC. A hawkish Fed means higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and lower demand for non-yielding assets. That is usually negative for gold.The recent 8.6% minor corrective rebound of gold within its medium-term downtrend (still below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages) from the 11 June 2026 low has started to show bullish exhaustion, as evidenced by the bearish divergence condition flashed by the hourly RSI momentum indicator on Tuesday, 16 June 2026 (see Fig. 5).Watch the 4,432/466 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential bearish reversal; a break below 4,309 reinforces the bearish bias and exposes the next intermediate supports at 4,242/220 and 4,171 in the first step.On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 4,466 (also the 200-day moving average) may see a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 4,535 and 4,580. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global markets paused ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with investors reducing risk exposure before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy decision and updated economic projections. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%.The collapse in crude oil prices continues to reshape the macro narrative, as WTI plunged to a three-month low below US$77 per barrel on expectations of a formal US-Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, significantly reducing near-term inflation pressures.A sharp rotation is underway beneath the surface, with technology and semiconductor stocks underperforming while financials, industrials, and defensive cyclicals drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fresh record highs.Chart of the day: Nikkei 225’s minor bullish acceleration trend remains intact above 68,735/089 key short-term pivotal supportChart of the day - Nikkei 225’s bullish acceleration trend towards a fresh all-time high Fig. 1: Japan 225 minor trend as of 17 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The minor uptrend phase of the Japan 225 CFD (a proxy for the Nikkei 225 futures) remains intact since the 11 June 2026 intraday low of 62,329, supported by a renewed bullish momentum condition in the hourly RSI (see Fig. 1)Watch the 68,735/089 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the bullish bias to seek out the next intermediate resistances at 70,180 and 71,790/72,735 (Fibonacci extension cluster).However, failure to hold and an hourly close below 68,089 negates the bullish tone, opening scope for a retracement to retest the next intermediate supports at 67,224 and 65,875 (also the 20-day moving average).Top macro headlines S&P 500 rally falters on eve of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s debut: A sweeping rally that brought equities to the edge of all-time highs paused on Tuesday, 17 June. Trading desks trimmed exposures ahead of the highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision, marking newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural policy showcase. The S&P 500 slipped 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 underperformed, down 1.9%, as technology giants led a pre-meeting corrective decline. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, rallied by 0.6% to a record high, led by Goldman Sachs (+1.35%) and Caterpillar (+1.24%).Crude oil plunges to 3-month low as Strait of Hormuz reopening nears: Energy markets faced a massive liquidation amid heightened expectations of a finalised peace accord between Washington and Tehran. Brent crude broke down below $80 to close at $79.33/bbl, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plummeted by 5.6% to settle at $76.61/bbl, marking a fresh 3-month low as the world prepares for the formal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday.SpaceX post-IPO Surge extends to $2.66 trillion to threaten tech giants: Highlighting robust speculative appetite, shares of Elon Musk’s rocket company extended their post-IPO rally. SpaceX surged more than 8% in intraday heavy trading, before settling at a gain of 4.8% on Tuesday, 16 June. The newly public firm surpassed Amazon.com Inc. as the world’s fifth-largest company, with a market capitalisation of $2.66 trillion, about $10 billion more than Amazon's. Underwriters additionally exercised their greenshoe option, inflating total IPO proceeds to $85.7 billion.US housing construction activity slides to lowest volume since pandemic: Reflecting ongoing macro headwinds in the domestic real estate space, US housing starts plummeted a sharp 15.4% m/m. The housing indicator fell below the consensus projection of -2% to its lowest level since May 2020.Key macro themes The Fed’s critical crossroads in forward guidance: The global macro landscape is pinned entirely on the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting. Markets are pricing a near-certain probability that rates will remain paused at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the true focus remains on Kevin Warsh’s upcoming press conference and the updated summary of economic projections. Most economists expect the median dot plot to reflect an upward revision in inflation metrics alongside a drop in the committee’s traditional easing bias. Any hawkish baseline shift by Chair Warsh’s press conference could drastically redefine the global cost of capital heading into the second half of 2026.Extraction of the war premium and global supply chain recovery: With hundreds of stranded tankers preparing to move through the Persian Gulf following the preliminary US-Iran peace breakthrough, the deflation of the global energy crunch is rapidly filtering into cross-asset assets. While it will take months for infrastructure and shipping schedules to fully optimise, front-month futures are fast-tracking the extraction of the conflict premium. This supply shock reversal provides central banks with significant breathing room regarding headline price metrics but triggers immediate asset allocation out of defensive resource equities and back into cyclical growth.China’s domestic bifurcation and industrial divergence: Macro numbers from the Asia-Pacific region reveal a severe disconnect within the Chinese economy. On one hand, domestic consumption remains deeply damaged, with retail sales contracting 0.6% y/y in May, underperforming consensus estimates. Conversely, industrial production maintained its robust growth trajectory at 4.5% y/y in May (above consensus of 4.3%), supercharged by massive state-level investments in 3D printing, lithium-ion networks, and advanced industrial robots. This bifurcation suggests persistent weak domestic demand, while state resources are being channelled to the external sector.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, and the Nasdaq 100 slid 1.9% on profit-taking across mega-cap tech and semiconductors (SOX - 5.7%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to lead US indices toward a record high, boosted by a powerful defensive rotation into cyclical and financials. The Stoxx Europe 600 inched higher by 0.3% to a record high.Fixed Income: Sovereign bond yields dropped as tumbling crude oil prices eased long-term inflation fears. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.44%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield slipped to 2.94%, almost a one-month low, while Britain’s 10-year Gilt yield held near 4.81%.FX: The US Dollar Index remained little changed. The euro ticked up 0.2% to trade at $1.1608, while the British pound hovered at $1.3427, inching up slightly above its 20-day moving average. The Japanese yen weakened slightly to 160.47 per US dollar near the prior critical intervention level of 160.65, following BoJ’s decision to end its JGBs tapering programme from April 2027.Commodities: WTI crude oil fell 5.6% to settle at $76.61/bbl, and Brent fell below $80 on Persian Gulf de-escalation. Precious metals gained a modest lift from declining sovereign bond yields, with spot gold climbing 0.5% to settle at $4,331/oz but still below the 20-day moving average ($4,395/oz).Asia Pacific impact Mixed performances in Asian equities on shifting factors: Asia-Pacific equity bourses mixed in early trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rallied by 0.4%, looking to set another fresh all-time high milestone at 70,000 on the backdrop of a restrained 10-year JGB yield at 2.62% (below its 30-year high of 2.81% printed in May 2026). Profit-taking was seen in semiconductor- and technology-heavy South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX, with intraday losses of 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, the defence-oriented Singapore’s STI soared to 0.8% towards a new intraday record high of 5,160.Aussie dollar supported by RBA hawkish hold: The Australian Dollar whipsawed and ended Tuesday’s session almost unchanged at 0.7067 against the greenback as market participants digested RBA Governor Bullock’s “hawkish cautious” messaging, with the possibility of further monetary policy tightening in Australia if inflation pressures resurface.Top 5 events to watch today UK Core Inflation Rate (May) - 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.7% y/y, Apr: 2.5% y/y) Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, UK Gilts, FTSE 100US Retail Sales (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 0.5% m/m, Apr: 0.5% m/m) Impact: USD, US stock indices, short-term US TreasuriesEIA Weekly Stockpile Change - 10:30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crudeFed Interest Rate Decision & Economic Projections - 2:00 am SGT, Thursday Impact: All asset classesFed Press Conference - 2.30 am SGT, Thursday Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways SpaceX’s historic US$75 billion IPO marks a major milestone for global equity markets, with the company debuting at a valuation approaching US$1.8 trillion and positioning itself as a future top-weight constituent of the Nasdaq 100.Despite overwhelming investor demand and heavy oversubscription, the SpaceX grey market remains technically fragile, with the SPCX/USDT perpetual contract still trading within a medium-term descending channel since its launch in May.The technical outlook hinges on two critical levels: a break below US$161.00 may trigger a deeper correction towards US$147.07 and US$138.36, while a sustained move above US$187.60 would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door towards US$205.10 and US$212.70. Today, 12 June 2026, marks a historic watershed moment for global stock markets as Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX) makes its highly anticipated debut on the Nasdaq. Priced at $135 per share to raise a record-breaking $75 billion, the offering values the interlocking aerospace, Starlink connectivity, and xAI business at an eye-watering $1.78 trillion to $1.8 trillion.In addition, Nasdaq has also overhauled its inclusion rules for listed companies to be included in the Nasdaq 100 benchmark index. Since 1 May 2026, it has allowed the top 40 companies by market cap (roughly $100 billion or more) to fast-track into the Nasdaq 100 in just 15 days.SpaceX is set to be part of the Nasdaq 100 and a risk appetite driver Hence, SpaceX is likely to be one of the top 10 component stocks of the Nasdaq 100 by mid-July 2026, and thereafter potentially impacting the price movements of the Nasdaq 100 in line with passive flows via exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq 100.While the offering is heavily oversubscribed (3x to 4x, drawing over $250 billion in orders), market participants and traders will be observing in the next four weeks the performance of SPCX, given that it is the largest IPO offering in the world so far, plus its high-growth revenue drivers from space exploration and Starlink satellites connectivity can have a significant impact on risk appetite for the broader market.Interestingly, we can look at the grey market for SpaceX, which is trading right now via perpetual contracts listed on crypto exchanges, to decipher the potential short-term trend of SPCX via technical analysis.SPCX/USDT has morphed into a medium-term bearish trend Fig. 1: SPCX/USDT medium-term trend as of 12 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Binance listed its crypto derivative, SPCX/USDT (settled in Tether), pre-IPO Perpetual Contract on 21 May 2026. It spiked up to hit a high of $224.47 on the first day of trading and thereafter plummeted by 31% to print a current all-time low of $154.83 on Wednesday, 10 June 2026, before it rebounded to trade at a current intraday level of $173.56 on this time of writing (it represents a gain of 28% from its IPO price of $135) (see Fig. 1).However, the trend of SPCX/USDT has been bearish since its launch on 21 May, as price action continues to oscillate within a descending channel, suggesting SPCX may enter a downward spiral over the next four weeks.Watch the 187.60 pivotal resistance to maintain the potential medium-term/multi-week bearish trend of SPCX/USDT. A break below the recent range support of 161.00 may expose the next medium-term supports at 147.07 and 138.36 (defined by Fibonacci extensions).On the flip side, a clearance above 187.60 invalidates the bearish tone and could kickstart a bullish impulsive up-move sequence towards the next medium-term resistances at 205.10 and 212.70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD/JPY remains supported by a widening US-Japan yield differential. Markets are increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve, with rising expectations of a Fed rate hike later in 2026, while the Bank of Japan appears likely to slow or pause its bond tapering programme despite an expected rate increase next week.The pair is approaching a key intervention zone near 160.40–160.70. Japanese authorities have already spent a record amount defending the yen earlier this year, making this area a critical level where renewed verbal or direct intervention risks may emerge.Technical momentum remains constructive in the near term. USD/JPY continues to trade within both a medium-term ascending wedge and a shorter-term rising channel, with momentum indicators remaining supportive of a further advance toward the 160.65, 161.14/20, and 161.60/95 resistance levels.The US CPI shock and a hawkish Fed The market enters today’s US CPI print, facing building macro headwinds and energy shocks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Following a complete evaporation of Fed rate-cut bets for 2026, the market is aggressively positioned for a bear-flattening yield curve environment under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. With futures now pricing in a 61% probability of a 25-bps hike in October, an upside surprise in today’s CPI, potentially pushing inflation to multi-year highs, will solidify the higher-for-longer regime and maintain structural upward pressure on the greenback.BoJ’s balancing act - The June rate hike vs. bond taper pause Next week (June 15-16), the Bank of Japan is widely expected to shift its narrative toward becoming an active “inflation fighter”. Aggregated polls show nearly 94% of economists expect Governor Ueda to deliver a 25-basis-point hike, lifting the short-term policy rate to 1.00% from 0.75%, a level last seen in 1995. This hawkish tilt is directly responsive to the persistent inflationary impulses generated by the US-Iran war.Crucially, to mitigate political friction with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and stabilise a volatile sovereign bond market where the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has recently hit a 30-year high of 2.8%, the BoJ is leaning towards pausing or slowing its bond-purchase taper next fiscal year.By freezing further monthly purchase reductions (potentially keeping them steady near 2.1 trillion yen), the central bank hopes to cap the blowout of debt-servicing costs before yields breach the painful 3% threshold.The 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread is widening Fig. 1: 2-YR & 10-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spreads as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The shorter-term yield spread between the 2-year US Treasury and the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) has started to widen since hitting a 4-year low of 2.12% earlier in February 2026, which is also just a whisker above a major support of 2.05% (see Fig. 1).The spread of the 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield has rebounded by 60 basis points to 2.72% as of Wednesday, 9 June 2026, which implies that the US Federal Reserve is adopting a more hawkish monetary policy stance over the Bank of Japan, in turn putting downside pressure on the Japanese yen as it flirts around the prior intervention area of 160.40/70, where Vice Finance Minister Mimura, in charge of foreign exchange issued a “final verbal warning” to speculators on 30 April 2026 before actual intervention took place on the same day.Japanese authorities have spent a record $ 74.1 billion in the latest round of FX intervention to buy yen between 30 April 2026 and 6 May 2026, according to Finance Ministry data.Let’s now unpack the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Grinding up towards “Ascending Wedge” upper boundary at 160.60/95 Fig. 2: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Minor uptrend with key short-term support pivotal at 159.75.Resistances: 160.65 (30 Apr 2026 high), 161.14/20 (4/9 Jul 2024 congestion & Fibonacci extension), 161.60/95 (long-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).Next supports: 159.45 (1/3 Jun 2026 congestion & 20-day MA), 159.10 (29 May 2026 low), 158.80 (21/25 May 2026 low & 50-day MA).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on USD/JPY Price actions of the USD/JPY have been oscillating within a medium-term “Ascending Wedge” configuration since the 27 January 2026 low, with its upper boundary coming in at 161.60/95 (see Fig.2).The recent minor uptrend phase remains intact, as price action in USD/JPY continues to evolve within a minor ascending channel in place from the 29 May 2026 low at 159.10 (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains short-term bullish, holding above the 50 level (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Technology stocks staged a strong rebound, led by semiconductor shares such as Intel and Micron, helping the Nasdaq 100 recover 1.6% despite weak overall market breadth and continued pressure on non-tech sectors.Middle East tensions remain a key market driver, but a temporary Israel-Iran ceasefire helped cap oil price gains, reducing immediate inflation fears and supporting risk sentiment.Investors remain focused on higher interest rates and liquidity risks in mega-IPOs, with Treasury yields remaining elevated as upcoming listings such as SpaceX continue to raise questions about capital allocation across global equity markets.Chart of the day: AUD/USD’s rebound from Monday looks like a “dead cat bounce”. Watch the 0.7085/710 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - AUD/USD struggled below 20-day and 50-day moving averages Fig. 1: AUD/USD minor trend as of 9 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 0.7% rebound in AUD/USD from Monday’s Asian session intraday low of 0.7024 has been lacklustre. The hourly RSI momentum indicator has been capped below its descending resistance at around 58 (see Fig. 1).These observations warrant caution that Monday’s rebound may be a “dead cat bounce” within a bearish structure that has been unfolding since the bearish break below the 50-day moving average on last Friday, 5 June 2026.Watch the 0.7085/7100 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 0.7024 near-term support opens scope for potential weakness towards the next immediate supports at 0.7008/0.6995 and 0.6960/6945.On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a squeeze up to retest the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which converge at the next intermediate resistance of 0.7120 and 0.7153.Top macro headlines Dip buyers unleash historic chip rally: Following a brutal selloff that saw global tech benchmarks routed late last week, dip buyers returned to Wall Street in force. The Nasdaq 100 rallied 1.6%, and the S&P 500 jumped 0.3% to close above 7,405, powered by a massive 5.6% to 6.5% resurgence of semiconductor giants like Micron Technology and Intel Corp. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 0.2%.Trump ceasefire call caps geopolitical oil surge: Crude oil sharply pared its early 4% weekend gains after a tenuous, temporary ceasefire was brokered between Israel and Iran. While Israel hit petrochemical targets in southwestern Iran over the weekend, Reuters reported that both sides subsequently lifted flight and movement restrictions, signalling a tentative pause in direct hostilities.SpaceX counts down to historic $75 Billion IPO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX is moving ahead with plans to raise $75 billion by offering 555.6 million shares at a fixed price of $135 per share. The historic listing, scheduled for this Friday, skips typical bookbuilding price ranges due to massive pre-IPO institutional demand, commanding a fully diluted valuation of $1.77 trillion.Fed hike fears soften on wage metrics: While a massive 172,000 nonfarm payroll expansion on Friday initially stoked hawkish monetary fears, institutional desks spent the session reassessing the data. Wall Street sentiment turned positive as analysts noted a cooling trend in underlying wage growth, prompting banks to downplay the imminent risk of an October Fed rate hike.'Sell Indonesia’ sweeps regional trading desks: Concerns over interventionist economic management and confusion regarding new commodity export rules have sent Indonesian assets into a spiral. Just five months after hitting a record high, the benchmark Jakarta stock index plunged, bringing its total decline to 36% and making it the worst-performing global index in 2026, while the rupiah collapsed to a new low of 18,180 against the dollar.Key macro themes A healthy reset in crowded tech allocations: Wall Street’s leading strategists messaged that last week’s deep pullback was an essential positioning reset rather than a structural market top. Citigroup aggressively raised its year-end S&P 500 target to 8,100 (a gain of around 9% from Monday’s S&P 500 closing level of 7.405), citing a significant step-up in corporate earnings power that will absorb upcoming mega-cap tech issuance, such as SpaceX and Anthropic.Cool reception for conceptual AI updates: Despite the broader chip sector’s explosive rebound, consumer tech companies bucked the trend. Apple Inc. shares slid 1.9% after investors gave a decidedly cool reception to the firm’s showcase of its next-generation AI platform, underscoring that markets are increasingly demanding immediate, quantifiable monetisation over product updates.Sovereign debt yield resurgence: As geopolitical alarms shifted to a low simmer in the Middle East, the safe-haven premium began draining from global bonds. Fixed-income yields remained anchored near multi-month highs, with global allocators bracing for massive upcoming government note auctions amid a structurally higher cost of capital.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to settle at 7,405.73, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.6%. But market breadth was weak, with only 3 of the 11 S&P 500 sectors recording gains: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5 %). In Europe, the Stoxx 600 edged down 0.1% due to its lower semiconductor weighting.Fixed Income: Yields pressed higher on hawkish central bank expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced to settle near 4.57%. Germany’s 10-year Bund yield ticked up to 3.06%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield rose four basis points to 4.94%.FX: The US Dollar Index lost its safe-haven traction, falling slightly by 0.1%. The euro caught a minor bid, hovering at $1.1538, while the British pound rested at $1.3350. The Japanese yen stabilised at around 160.20 per dollar.Commodities: WTI crude finished up 1% on Monday to trade near $91.27/bbl, and Brent crude rose to trade near $94.10/bbl, both closing well below their early peaks. Spot gold clawed back a modest 0.05% to trade at $4,330/oz, hovering just above a near-term support of $4,250/oz.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets under pressure: Before the New York tech rebound materialised, regional indices bore the brunt of global tech contagion. South Korea’s KOSPI index was severely damaged, falling by a staggering 5.5% on Friday as options market liquidations triggered a deep regional equity-clearing event. In today’s Asia opening session, technical rebounds have materialised, Nikkei 225 (+3.6%), KOSPI (+3.6%), CSI 300 (+0.3%), and STI (+0.9%).Rupiah trapped in historic lows: The Indonesian rupiah weakened about 7% year-to-date, making it one of the worst-performing currencies in Asia in 2026, and fell further to a low of 18,180 against the US dollar, forcing emergency central bank smoothing interventions.BOJ intervention floor monitored: The Japanese yen remains deeply pinned against the greenback at around 160.20. The Bank of Japan remains on maximum alert for direct spot-market intervention as wide yield differentials continue to structurally favour the U.S. dollar.Top 3 events to watch today Germany Balance of Trade (Apr) - 2.00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Existing Home Sales (May) - 10.00 pm SGT (consensus: 4.06M, Apr: 4.02M) Impact: USD, US stock indicesECB President Lagarde Speech - 10 Jun, 12.30 am SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways AI-driven equities face their biggest setback in months. A sharp selloff in semiconductor and technology stocks, triggered by valuation concerns and disappointing guidance from key AI-related companies, has halted the nine-week Wall Street rally and raised questions about the sustainability of the AI super cycle.Middle East tensions have reignited energy market risks. Fresh Iran-Israel hostilities pushed crude oil prices higher, reviving concerns over global energy supply disruptions and reinforcing inflationary pressures across major economies.Strong US labour data has revived expectations of a Fed rate hike. A significantly stronger-than-expected US payrolls report has increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year, driving Treasury yields higher, strengthening the US dollar, and tightening global financial conditions.Chart of the day: WTI crude gapped up and rebounded from minor ascending channel support at $91.40/bbl.Chart of the day – WTI crude erased last Friday’s losses Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 8 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for the WTI crude oil futures) gapped up by 3.3% in today’s Asia opening session to trade at $95.10 per barrel at this time of writing, erasing last Friday’s loss of 3%.Near-term technicals have flipped bullish, as the hourly RSI momentum indicator exited oversold territory and broke out above its former descending resistance.Watch the 91.40 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 95.45 would see the intermediate resistance at 100.00 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) in the first step.However, a break and an hourly close below 91.40 would signal a retest of the 29 May 2026 minor swing low at 89.00. Below it extends losses towards the next intermediate support at 85.50Top macro headlines Tech deflates in brutal Wall Street reversal: Wall Street’s historic nine-week winning streak ground to a violent halt on Friday as a massive tech-led selloff intensified. The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 4.8%, and a broad gauge of chipmakers tumbled 10% in its worst single-session routing in months, as growing anxiety over AI overvaluation triggered widespread institutional profit-taking.Geopolitical escalation as Iran fires on Israel: Middle East tensions exploded over the weekend. Following an Israeli strike on Beirut, Iran directed a massive salvo of missiles targeting Israeli territory. WTI and Brent crude futures immediately spiked 2.8% to hit at $92.70 and $95.40 a barrel in today’s Asia opening session, though gains moderated slightly after President Trump said the flare-up would not derail the overarching regional peace framework negotiations.Hot US jobs report shifts Fed target: The US labour market showed unexpected, robust resilience, with May nonfarm payrolls adding 172,000 positions, shattering the consensus forecast of 85,000. While the unemployment rate held at 4.3%, the red-hot hiring numbers prompted Fed funds futures traders to immediately price in a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike as early as October 2026.Key macro themes The Great AI narrative fray: The unyielding “AI-drives-everything” bull market faced its harshest reality check over the weekend. A combination of hot macroeconomic data and localised tech earnings disappointment (e.g., Broadcom) has investors fiercely debating whether the current AI market cap demands a tactical correction, particularly as blockbuster private listings such as SpaceX threaten to drain liquidity from broader equity markets.The Mega-IPO liquidity drain: Wall Street trading desks are highly anxious over an unprecedented wave of massive capital calls coming to market. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has locked in a fixed $135/share price targeting a record-shattering $75 billion public raise this week, while generative AI giant Anthropic just filed confidentially for an IPO targeting a near 1$ trillion valuation. Capital allocators are actively selling existing liquid equities to free up space for these generational private tech entries.Sovereign bond yield resurgence: The combination of an inflationary energy supply shock and an unrelenting US jobs landscape has completely crushed any remaining expectations for central bank rate cuts. Two-year Treasury yields surged 10 basis points on Friday to 4.15%, signalling a profound multi-month repricing of global cost of capital.Global markets impact Equities: S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% in early Asian trade before easing towards a slight gain of 0.01% and 0.35%, after Friday’s steep losses, where the S&P 500 sank 2.6%. The medium-term uptrend, which began late March 2026, has officially stalled. Fixed Income: US Treasuries tumbled; two-year yields closed Friday up 10 bps to 4.15%. The 10-year Treasury yield extended its gains by another 4 bps t0 4.57% in early Monday trading, maintaining immense upward pressure.FX: The US Dollar Index gained aggressively against all G-10 peers on a cocktail of safe-haven flows and the hawkish Fed rate adjustment. The Euro flattened out at $1.1519, a 2-month low, while the British Pound hovered defensively at $1.3317, near a 1-month low. In addition, the AUD tumbled to around a 2-month low of 0.7022, and the JPY grinded lower towards the recent intervention zone of 160.45/65 per US dollar.Commodities: Brent crude gapped higher by 2.8% to trade at $95.40/bbl on the back of Iranian missile deployment. Spot Gold extended its losses from Friday, slipping to $4,315/oz as expectations of higher-for-longer global interest rates diminished its non-yielding appeal. Asia Pacific Impact Regional AI stocks routed: Tech-heavy Asian benchmarks bore the brunt of global tech contagion on Monday morning. South Korea’s Kospi index, the world’s top-performing gauge this year due to its exposure to memory and AI chips, tumbled 5.5% on Friday and opened 7% lower today. The Nikkei 225 also posted steep losses of 5%. Blood baths are seen in other Asia-Pacific benchmark stock indices: Hang Seng Index (-1.7%), China A50 (-1.6%), CSI 300 (-2.4%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-1.4%).Currency interventions in play: The South Korean won slid to its weakest valuation framework since 2009 to an intraday high of 1,559 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, forcing the Seoul government to deploy an emergency series of curbs to support the currency. The Japanese Yen also remains deeply pinned, trading weakly at 160.30 per US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan intervention flags fully raised.Trade sentiment frozen: Early regional performance is further muted by traders waiting on major Chinese trade balance data later this week, as regional supply chains undergo structural realignment and linger amid lingering tariff anxieties.Top 2 events to watch today New York Fed 1-YR Inflation Expectations (May) – 11.00 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. 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