Key takeaways Gold has entered a disorderly liquidation phase: Driven primarily by forced unwinding of leveraged long positions rather than a shift in Fed policy expectations.Margin hikes and order flows, not Fed politics, are the real catalyst: CME’s increase in gold and silver futures margin requirements sharply raised capital costs, choking off bullish risk appetite and triggering cascading sell-offs, while US 2-year yields signal no hawkish repricing.Near-term setup favours a tactical bounce, with clear risk levels: Gold is approaching the critical US$4,405 support, reinforced by multiple technical confluences and extreme volatility readings; a hold above this level opens scope for a minor mean-reversion rebound, while a break lower signals further downside. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600,” published on 30 January 2026.The price actions of Gold (XAU/US) have staged the expected corrective decline on last Friday, 30 January 2026, to hit the second intermediate support at US$4,757 as highlighted.The yellow precious metal printed an intraday low at US$4,679 and closed the US session at US$4,895 on Friday, 30 January 2026, recording a daily loss of 9%, its steepest drop since 1983.Order flows are the main catalyst for the steep losses, not Kevin Warsh zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasury yield medium-term trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Several media reports have highlighted that US President Trump’s official announcement to nominate ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair is likely the driver that triggered the rampant sell-off in gold and silver due to his past remarks on his preference for a smaller US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which may lead to an indirect tightening of liquidity conditions.However, the US Treasury market does not imply such a narrative that “Kevin Warsh is going to be a new hawkish Fed Chair”.The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is the most sensitive to the Fed’s monetary policy stance, did not trade higher last Friday; instead, it dropped by 4 basis points to close lower at 3.52%, and remained below the medium-term range resistance of 3.63% in place since 30 October 2025 (see Fig. 1).In today’s Asia session, 2 February 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has continued to extend its losses by 9% to print an intraday low of US$4.402 at the time of writing due to a hike in metal futures margins announced by CME Group over the weekend.COMEX gold futures margins (1oz) are raised from 6 per cent to 8 per cent, while COMEX 5000 silver futures (SI) are set to increase to 15 per cent from 11 per cent.Hence, such increases in margin requirements are likely lead to a further unwinding of speculative long positions in Gold and Silver.Higher capital outlays to sustain or extend long positions abruptly choked off bullish risk appetite, unleashing a cascading liquidation in Gold (XAU/USD).Let's now look at the short-term technical chart to decipher the near-term (1 to 3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Minor mean reversion rebound after overextended decline zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 2 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD). A clearance above US$4,742 (also the 20-day moving average) is likely to increase the odds of a minor mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at US$4,942 and US$5,169 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the steep decline from 26 January 2026 all-time high to 2 February 2026 intraday low) (see Fig. 2).However, a break and an hourly close below US$4,405 invalidates the minor bullish recovery scenario for a further extension of the corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,285 and US$4,129.Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias The US$4,405 key short-term pivotal support is defined by a confluence of different elements that point to a similar level of around US$4,405; the 50-day moving average, the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025, and a Fibonacci extension of the current drop, measured from the current all-time high of 29 January 2026.Hourly Bollinger Bandwidth has spiked to an extreme 15.25, indicating a volatility climax and suggesting the recent price sell-off is overextended in the near term. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US President finally gave his answer for who will be the next Federal Reserve Chairman of the Board.Trump loves a good surprise. Just after announcing he would provide the decision next week, turns out he did so in the early morning through a Truth Social Post.Kevin Warsh will be serving as the Chairman for the Fed for a first four-year term beginning in May 2026. The announcement came with swift Market reactions – Gold and other metals are falling off a cliff, Stocks gapped lower in today's open and the Dollar is heading higher.This definitely looks like "Sell the news" flows – the rest for traders will be to see if this continues or not. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 4H Chart, January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView We will dive into Mr Warsh's past endeavours, what he represents for the Federal Reserve and our expectations on the effect he should have on Markets. Discover:Markets Today: European economies expand, gold and silver plunge as markets await Fed Chair announcement and PCE dataMetals flashing red after record runs – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookChart alert: Gold has formed a medium-term blow-off top below $5,600Who is Kevin Warsh?His past Kevin Warsh’s career is a distinguished blend of high-level academia, private sector expertise, and public service. He holds an A.B. in public policy from Stanford University and a Juris Doctor from Harvard Law School, where he focused on the intersection of law and economics – A clean, classic background for somebody who could run the Fed. FYI, Powell also held a Law Degree.Shortly after his completing his studies, Warsh distinguished himself at Morgan Stanley, where he served as Executive Director in the M&A department from 1995. Warsh quickly became a specialist in structuring complex capital market transactions across diverse industries for the Financial Institution. His competence for Markets caught the eye of the George W. Bush administration, leading to his appointment as Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy in 2002 being only 32.In 2006, Kevin got appointed at the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, being the youngest to reach the position, which drew some criticism.Still, being well connected to Wall Street after his stay at MS, he quickly got accepted as "invaluable" for the Fed.Warsh became Ben Bernanke’s (Fed Chair during the period) primary "emissary" to the financial world during the 2008 meltdown. His unique ability to speak the "language of the markets" made him the central bank’s most vital conduit to Wall Street CEOs and global regulators.Just the fact that he remained at the Fed from 2006 to 2011 proves he was well-suited for the Job. It wasn't the easiest period in financial markets. zoom_out_map Dow Jones from 2006 to 2012 and Warsh's first Fed term – Source; TradingView He also served as the Fed's representative to the G20 and for Emerging and Advanced economies of Asia before resigning in March 2011.After his first stay at the Fed, Warsh transitioned into heavyweight intellectual roles in many establishments and foundations. At the Hoover Institution, he became a prominent advocate for regime change in monetary policy, often criticizing the Fed’s long-term reliance on balance sheet expansion. One of his most notable global achievements was an independent report, the Warsh Review, commissioned by the Bank of England which increased the Central Bank's transparency policy.Fun fact, Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney was the Bank of England's Governor during that period.He also was part of the favorites to be the Fed Chair in 2018, but the first Trump Administration preferred to go towards safety with Jerome Powell (as he was still deemed too young for the position).The new Fed Chair still kept close ties with the US President, taking us to today. Let's now see what he represents for Markets and how it can affect the US Dollar and other assets.Warsh and his impact on Markets This section can either age like Wine or Milk and will, of course, be subject to extensive reviews as his term commences and his first speeches as Fed Chair get delivered.Kevin Warsh is not Wall Street's preferred choice (Rick Rieder held that role), but still represents Respect and Credibility for his role.The Nominee was known for his relatively hawkish views towards the end of his first term at the Fed, notably getting named a "hard money hawk" by CNBC.But being close to the Trump Administration, particularly today, implies sacrificing some of one's impartial judgment. Kevin Warsh is an advocate for tax and regulatory reforms, so as long as Trump's fiscal policies aren't too extreme, he should stay mostly in line with the President.Something positive for the US Dollar and fiat currencies in general is that Warsh tends to be a realist rather than a dove-maximalist. He did express his discontent with the second round of Quantitative Easing.A good place to look for Market reactions to his credibility regarding the Dollar is the Dollar itself.The DXY (Dollar Index) has been strengthening again after the pre-FOMC super-tumble. As long as the Index remains below 97.00, it could just be classical mean-reversion. For now, the rebound looks solid. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 1H Chart. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indexes have opened lower but I wouldn't take this as a red flag. Stocks did rise after the FOMC meeting and despite yesterday's selling session, benchmarks rebounded and largely remain close to their all-time highs.What you are seeing today is the result of profit-taking ahead of a high-risk weekend (Iran, or more Trump Admin madness anywhere else).If Warsh follows Trump's demands, he should help Equities to rise on the long-run. The President loves to base his own performance looking at Markets for those who did not know, so Trump surely will push for his nominee to do the same. The rest will of course also depend on the US Economy and global risk-appetite (and lack of any major Crisis).Regarding Fiat currency credibility, it will be tough to say.Kevin Warsh isn't the favored candidate to reduce the Fed's Balance Sheet – So that's about that for Fiscal reduction concerns.Still, his realistic views may help with the recent Debasement Trade trends, part of the reason why we saw steep profit-taking around Metals today. zoom_out_map Metas Performance today (11:32 A.M.). January 30, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz The yield curve is also steepening further, with the shorter-term yields (3M to 5Y) going lower while the long end (10Y and more) is rising – Implying pricing for more cuts today and more inflation later.This is a repricing for further dovishness from the Trump-nominee, not seen as such a Yes-Man as Kevin Hassett, but also not a candidate who will stand up to the President like Powell. zoom_out_map Daily US Treasury Yields movement. January 30, 2026 – Source: TradingView For the rest, time will tell. Risk-appetite is looking timid amid the past two years of relentless rallies across asset classes and geopolitical instability.His first address, particularly his first Press Conference as Fed Chair (June 17, 2026), will be quintessential for Markets.Tribute to Jerome Powell Jerome Powell will surely go down as one of the most popular Fed Chairs.Known as a Market stabilizer, Powell would always push for the lowest volatility outcome over his 8 years as Fed Chair, may it be through the first rounds of post-Great Financial Crisis rate tightening in 2018-2019 or the quick U-turn towards zero-rate policies the year after, as COVID struck hard.Even when Participants thought he was a dove, he did not hesitate to show his hawkish wings during the 2022 hiking cycle and maintained that tone until inflation abated. zoom_out_map Fed Funds Rate since 2015 – Source: FRED He was a Swiss Army knife at the head of the most important central bank and held his role with righteousness—a very talented speaker who always knew how to shapeshift curve balls and tricky questions during press conferences. Or even attacks from his President.Markets will surely miss Jerome Powell as Fed Chair – now we'll see if he wants to stay on the Board of Governors, with his term still valid until January 31, 2028.He will also be remembered for years of good memes. I'm part of Generation Z, so this one is a bit more personal. zoom_out_map Money printer go "PRRRRRRRR" Safe Trades and wishing good luck to Kevin Warsh (and the Financial System)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is struggling below the $88,000 level and recently dipped under $85,000The slump is attributed to institutional selloffs (>$160M in ETF outflows this week), the US Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates, and the strong performance of Gold as the preferred safe-haven asset.Key resistance is at $90,000, while a sustained drop below $85,000 opens the door to $80,000 and potentially $75,000.Most Read: Gold falls by 10%! Markets are going ablaze amid US-Iran War fears and post-FOMC flowsBitcoin is having a difficult start to the end of January. The world's most famous cryptocurrency is currently struggling to stay above $88,000.For many market participants, this is a worrying sign, as the price has dropped from higher levels earlier in the week at a time when the US Dollar has reached four-year lows.Looking at the week thus far and Bitcoin is only down around 1.6% at the time of writing. Given the volatility we are seeing across the board, this is surprising to say the least. zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Why is Bitcoin struggling? There are several main reasons why Bitcoin is feeling the pressure right now and perhaps one of the more surprising ones is Gold prices.While Bitcoin is struggling, gold has been doing very well, reaching record highs over $5,500 an ounce. Investors looking for a "safe" place to hide from economic trouble are currently choosing gold over Bitcoin.The precious metal is up over $1000 for the month of January alone.For much of the past decade, Bitcoin proponents have championed the asset as "Digital Gold," arguing that its fixed supply and decentralized nature make it the ultimate hedge against geopolitical risk and inflation.However, events in late January 2026 have proven that this isn't necessarily true. While gold prices have jumped to record highs, Bitcoin has been stuck in a slump, losing about 30% of its value since its peak in October. This suggests that Bitcoin isn't behaving like gold when things get rocky in the real world.The question is will this dent the appetite of Bitcoin for a while longer as a hedge, particularly from the institutional side?Bitcoin ETFs have seen a lot of money leaving lately. This week alone, about $160 million has been pulled out of these funds. When these big players sell, it puts downward pressure on the price. zoom_out_map Source: Farside Investors Whether this selloff leads to a more prolonged one remains to be seen and this could have a bearing on where Bitcoin prices head to next.Another factor behind the recent malaise could be down to Wednesday's US Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed decided to keep interest rates the same (between 3.50% and 3.75%). While they didn't raise rates, they also didn't lower them.The higher rate environment makes safety more appealing while also leaving the retail side of market participants with less disposable income to invest in the higher risk higher reward assets like Bitcoin.What is the Outlook for the Future? The next few days will be very important for Bitcoin. The Risk of a Bigger Drop: Some analysts warn that if the US government shutdown lasts a long time, Bitcoin could fall much further. If people continue to panic, the price might even slide toward $60,000. This would be a 30% drop from where it is now.Looking at the technical picture and Bitcoin’s position as of January 29, 2026, is precarious. The asset has failed to consolidate above the $89,000 mark.Earlier in the day we saw a broader market selloff with Bitcoin dropping below the $85000 mark, before recovering to trade at $85460 at the time of writing.The drop also means that Bitcoin is now around $3000 below the 50-day MA which rests at $88678.The period-14 RSI on the four-hour chart also dipped into oversold territory but is attempting to move back above the key 30-level. A move back above may be seen as a sign that bullish momentum may be returning.If that is the case it will be interesting to see if bulls have the power to push beyond the $90000 which has held price back since Tuesday January 20, 2026.A clean and sustained break above the $90000 level is needed and even then there is a host of resistance beyond that which has proven difficult to navigate for Bitcoin in recent months.The $95000-$97000 range in particular has been tough and will likely be so once again if bulls are able to take charge.However, a four-hour candle close below the $85000 handle does open up a potential run toward $80000 and then the $75000 and $60000 mark.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 29, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It was surprising to see such straightforward flows during a volatile period.While black swans are unpredictable, the market's capacity to ignore risk until something breaks can be surprising.So what changed in the past hour?Metals rallied to new highs following Powell's press conference yesterday. The reaction was aggressive given the context. Powell highlighted US economic strength and defended Federal Reserve independence, factors that typically support the Dollar.Explaining the post-FOMC surge was difficult as the rate pause was not dovish.Yet, Gold rose 5% to $5,602, suggesting the debasement trade was spiraling. Recent volatility indicates otherwise. zoom_out_map Gold (CFD) 30m Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold corrected by 10% from its highs, dragging Silver and Platinum lower. Copper remains the outlier, reaching new highs in today's session.Is the uptrend over? Tough to say for now, but what's for sure is that up-and-down spikes have been getting more common as of late, indicating unstable Market conditions and potential changes in recent dynamics.Seeing rangebound conditions here would make sense – On the bigger picture, watch for breakouts to today's session up and down levels to get an idea of where flows are heading. zoom_out_map Morning Session moves in Metal Futures – Courtesy of Finviz Stocks are also diving lower, particularly recent AI performers.Disappointing Microsoft earnings dampened equity sentiment, sending the Nasdaq down 2.51% at its trough. zoom_out_map Microsoft (MSFT) Stock Daily Chart – Source: TradingView MSFT is down 12%, weighing heavily on the technology sector. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:17 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 29, 2026 Nasdaq sold off harshly, rebounding slightly in the mid-session zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: TradingView The picture in equities isn't looking very bullish across different Benchmarks – Watch out for volatility in upcoming sessions ahead of Weekend risk.The US Dollar doesn't know where to go zoom_out_map US Dollar (DXY) 1H Chart – Source: TradingView – January 29, 2026 While Oil flows might appear linked to Iran, a purely geopolitical driver would typically boost precious metals as safe havens.The current correction appears driven by a confluence of risks: post-FOMC repositioning, Iran tensions, weak earnings, and anxiety regarding the next Fed Chair nomination.Discover: WTI explodes to $66 as Iran tensions boil – US Oil OutlookCryptos are getting rejected harshly zoom_out_map Bitcoin 4H Chart – January 29, 2026 – Source: Tradingview zoom_out_map Current bloodbath session in Crypto – Courtesy of Finviz A detailed Crypto piece will be releasing soon.Keep a very close eye on the headlines to monitor Market developments.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil jumps 5% as traders predict attacks on Iran are getting closer by the secondExploring Technical Analysis for a rally in the commodityWTI could still be rising further – checking potential levels for breakouts Oil is a complex commodity to trade – affected by numerous countries, suppliers, refineries, economic activity, and, these days, conflicts.Iran has been a boiling pot for tensions since 1979, with the Islamic Regime extending extremist policies in the Middle East, supplementing small regional tensions to sponsoring full-capacity armies like in Lebanon with Hezbollah, Gaza with Hamas, or even further in Yemen with the Houthis.The issue is when such policies come at the cost of Iran's own civilian population, victim of extreme inflation, pollution, and resource scarcity (water levels are at 60-year lows) – The Iranian Rial has lost 97% of its value against the US Dollar in about a year. zoom_out_map Iranian Inflation rate (until October 2025) – Source: TradingEconomics With such conditions, without counting the public punishments and executions for regime dissenters, the population had seen many violent protests throughout the past many years.But today looks even worse. An estimated 30,000 deaths are reported amid the recent revolts, and the toll could be even worse.These reports and global US policies have pushed the Trump Administration to consider an imminent intervention to assist the Iranian population and eventually overthrow the Iranian government. zoom_out_map Odds for a US strike in Iran – Source: Polymarket What concerns Markets is that Iran is a top-6 global oil producer and holds the second-largest natural gas reserves. If it were only that, Markets could be looking away after adding a small risk premium.The larger threat, however, is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which all energy-commodity shipping to Asia passes, accounting for around 20% of global Oil and gas flows.During the 1980s, the Tanker War disrupted the Strait heavily, and attacks on tankers there could have a significant impact on Global Energy prices.The current flows and tensions are also assisting Metals on their way to continued all-time highs. More on this coming up during today's session.As traders price in more imminent interventions from the US, which could signal a larger regional war, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine whether technicals point to continued upside or if prices are approaching relative extremes. Read More:Markets Today: Japan Consumer Morale Improves. Gold Retreats from $5600 Highs, FTSE 100 Eyes BreakoutUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart zoom_out_map WTI Oil Daily Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView As was expressed in our previous Oil piece, the 200-Day Moving Average ($62.59) offered a significant breakout signal after getting breached yesterday.With the price action remaining solidly above its $58.50 Iran-Premium support, bulls have pushed for a daily tight bull channel in a 13% weekly rise.Still, recent spikes to $66.56 highs have found rejection from increasingly overbought levels – As long as no attacks materialize, further upside could be limited. Let's discover why on shorter timeframes.WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView With the recent spike in the action, RSI levels have turned into overbought conditions – logical when looking at the recent amassement of Military assets in the region.The issue is that such volatility-premium spikes can be tricky to trade – A quick shift from Market maker pricing, demand explosions and headlines can trigger swift moves.However, if nothing happens, the premium can quickly draw lower.To spot if any attacks actually materialize, look at today's peak.Any rise above $66.56 points at an actual attack and could see WTI extend to $78, similar level as during the 12-Day War.In the meantime, if nothing happens, a retest of the $62.30 to $63.40 Pivot zone could largely occur and would provide a decent pullback entry to avoid entering at extremes. Stop entries on breakouts could also be warranted.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsSession Spike $66.56Minor Resistance $65 to $66 (current test)September 2025 Major resistance $67 (could get breached if US attacks)Psychological Resistance $70$78.43 12-Day War highsSupport Levels$64.00 Tight Channel LowsMay 2025 range Key Pivot $62.30 to $63.43May Range lows support $59 to $60.5 Major supportIran Premium Support area $58.50 to $591H Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 1H Chart – January 29, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking even closer, the $65-$66 Resistance level will act as key area of interest:Remaining within the range through today and this weekly close would point to a continued breakout (lower odds if nothing new happens)Rejecting it however points to a retracement at least to the Main Pivot ZoneAny sudden breakout above implies an actual attack – The premium is now fully priced in, hence any further reactions would confirm that the risk is on.Safe Trades and Stay in Touch with the Latest News!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As of this morning, January 28, 2026, the gold market is experiencing historic volatility as the Federal Reserve prepares to release its policy statement at 2:00 PM EST. A historic milestone as the market navigates a volatile landscape ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.Gold & market performance today Historic Peak: Gold hit a fresh all-time high, trading near $5,312.00 earlier this morning, continuing a parabolic rally that has seen the metal gain over 15% in just seven trading sessions. As of 10 AM EST, gold is trading around $5,200–$5,280, showing some intraday volatility as traders position themselves for the FOMC decision.Safe-Haven Surge: The recent rally is being fueled by a "crisis of confidence" in the US dollar, which has hit a four-year low. This follows signals from the White House favoring a weaker dollar to bolster exports.Silver prices have mirrored gold's historic rally today, January 28, 2026, currently trading above $112.28 per ounce as the market reaches for new heights ahead of the FOMC announcement. The metal hit a fresh all-time high of $117.69 earlier this week, driven by a "perfect storm" of global supply shortages—exacerbated by China’s recent export ban—and surging industrial demand from the AI and solar sectors.Impact of the FOMC meeting (January 28, 2026 - Expected 2:00 PM EST) While the Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% (According to the futures markets' positioning - CME FedWatch tool), and since the interest rate expectations are largely priced in, the real impact will come from the Fed's "forward guidance" and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The "Hawkish Hold" Risk: If Powell suggests the cutting cycle is nearing an end and that 3.5% is the "neutral rate" (the floor for rate cuts), and strikes a hawkish tone on sticky inflation, gold could see a shift in sentiment.Dovish Signals: Conversely, if the Fed acknowledges economic cooling or signals a willingness to keep cutting rates despite current volatility, it may support the current gold status.Fed Independence: With an investigation into the central bank making headlines and rumors of an imminent new Fed Chair nominee, any sign of the Fed "bowing" to political pressure for lower rates could further fuel the recent appreciation..Read more: https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/gold-fomc-rally-warning/Technical analysis XAU/USD 4 Hour chart zoom_out_map Source: Tradingview.com XAU/USD 4 Hour chart Past performance is not indicative of future results. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at the bottom of your chart has reached an extreme level of 77.01, significantly above the typical "overbought" threshold of 70. This suggests the market is currently "overheated" and may be vulnerable to a profit-taking correction if the FOMC announcement today provides any hawkish surprises.​Multiple price gaps have been identified on the chart, with Gap 1 (January 2nd) and Gap 2 (January 16th) representing breakaway and runaway gaps, respectively. However, the most recent one, Gap 3, can potentially be an exhaustion gap.​Key Levels to Watch, daily Support and resistance levelsPP: 5128.33S1: 5066.16S2: 4951.70S3: 4889.52R1: 5242.79R2: 5304.97R3: 5419.43Register to attend our live webinars:https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trading/webinars/live-market-analysis/market-live-analysis-with-moheb-hanna/ Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Wall Street expects a record quarter for Apple with ~$138.5B in revenue and a focus on the iPhone 17 "supercycle" and Services growth.Key areas of scrutiny include a potential rebound in China sales and updates on the long-term AI Strategy.Bullish Scenario: A "beat and raise" could push the stock toward $270-$288.Bearish Scenario: Missing high iPhone expectations or weak guidance could cause the stock to break below critical support at $206-$210.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutAs Apple Inc. (AAPL) prepares to report its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, January 29 after market close.Wall Street will be watching with intrigue no doubt as despite a sluggish start to the year for the stock, which is down roughly 6-9% year-to-date expectations are high.Analysts project the tech giant will deliver its largest year-over-year revenue jump in four years, driven by a robust holiday season, the iPhone 17 cycle, and double-digit growth in its Services division.What to Expect? Wall Street consensus points to a record-breaking quarter for Apple.Revenue: Analysts expect revenue to land around $138.5 billion, representing a growth rate of approximately 10-12% year-over-year. This would easily eclipse the previous record of $124.3 billion set in Q1 2025.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Consensus estimates for EPS are pegged at $2.67, up roughly 11% from $2.40 in the year-ago quarter.Gross Margin: Investors will look for margins to remain steady between 47-48%, though any impact from rising memory costs or tariffs will be scrutinized. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda, Google Gemini, Data Source from LSEG, Yahoo Finance Key Areas to Focus On - Segment Performance Analysis While the headline numbers are critical, the narrative during the conference call specifically regarding future demand and AI will likely dictate the stock's immediate reaction.iPhone 17 Demand and the Supercycle The iPhone remains the engine of Apple’s profitability, and Q1 covers the critical holiday sales period. Analysts forecast iPhone revenue to surge by over 12% to approximately $78-$80 billion.The "supercycle" thesis relies heavily on the iPhone 17 significantly outperforming its predecessors. Early data suggests strong demand for the Pro models, and investors will want confirmation that the upgrade cycle is accelerating, particularly among the estimated 300+ million users with iPhones older than four years.The China Rebound China has been a battleground for Apple, facing stiff competition from domestic rivals like Huawei and a mixed economic backdrop. However, recent data offers a glimmer of hope: Counterpoint Research indicates Apple may have led the Chinese smartphone market in Q4 with over 20% market share.A confirmed rebound in Greater China revenue would be a major bullish signal, alleviating fears that Apple is losing its grip on its most important international market.Services Growth The Services segment (App Store, iCloud, Apple TV+, etc.) is Apple’s profit growth engine. Wall Street is looking for revenue to hit roughly $30 billion, implying ~14% growth.Sustained double-digit growth here is vital to justify Apple’s premium valuation (approx. 30x forward earnings). Any deceleration could spook investors who view Services as the company's safety net against hardware cyclicality.AI Strategy and "Apple Intelligence" Artificial Intelligence remains the "wild card." While Apple has been quieter than its peers, the integration of "Apple Intelligence" and the partnership with Google (Gemini) to power Siri are central to the long-term thesis.Market participants will listen intently for updates on consumer adoption of AI features and, more importantly, how Apple plans to monetize them. Commentary on future capital expenditures related to AI servers will also be key.The path forward is not without significant obstacles. The global memory shortage, the ongoing DOJ antitrust trial, and the complexities of the European regulatory environment present real risks to the company's operating model. The "trillion-dollar tightrope" involves balancing these external pressures while continuing to deliver the "quality and resilience of earnings" that investors have come to expect.If Apple can demonstrate that it has successfully harnessed the power of generative AI to drive both hardware upgrades and high-margin recurring fees, its premium valuation may be well-justified for years to come.The more seasoned market participants are watching three main things: whether the sales recovery in China will last, how many people are buying the new AI-powered Pro phones, and the company's plan to make Siri the main controller of a system that is so connected, users will find it very hard to leave.Potential Implications for the Stock Price Apple stock is currently trading near a technical support level, testing its October 2025 lows. The market sentiment has been cautiously optimistic, but valuation concerns persist.Bullish Scenario: A "beat and raise" (beating estimates and raising guidance) combined with positive commentary on China and AI could spark a reversal, pushing the stock back toward the $270-$288 range. Analysts at JP Morgan recently raised their target to $315, citing confidence in the multi-year product cycle.Bearish Scenario: If iPhone revenue misses the high expectations or if guidance for the March quarter is tepid due to rising component costs (specifically memory), the stock could break below crucial support levels near $206-$210.Apple Daily Chart, January 28, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Bottom Line This earnings report is about more than just a holiday quarter beat; it is a litmus test for the iPhone 17's longevity and Apple's ability to maintain growth in the AI era. With the stock currently underperforming the broader tech sector in 2026, a strong report is needed to reignite investor momentum.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersHuge session coming up for traders as Bank of Canada just published their rate decision and traders await for the FOMC/Earnings comboThe US Dollar is falling to 4 year lows as Trump comments on the currency Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Trends and themes change fast in the current wild Market environment.After last week's look at the end of the world as we know it, as the US Administration threatened to buy Greenland, participants are now switching back to a few immediate risks.What happens to the Fed, particularly the dollar, after this afternoon? The 14:00 FOMC Rate Decision could potentially be combined with the announcement of the next Fed Chair.With this afternoon's decision, 97% priced for a hold, Trump may want to turn the attention to what's coming up next by announcing his decision– Powell's term as chair is ending in May.Will anything happen with Iran, and how big an impact will it have on Markets?Gold is making daily records above $5,000; WTI Oil is trading to new 2026 highs above $63. A few banks have issued their warnings regarding a complacent Investor behavior despite geopolitical risks – But we're in the dip-buying age in investing so let's see how this plays out.The US dollar has been attracting quite a bit of attention in the past few weeks after tumbling at a record pace. With the latest EU-US drama, participants are harshly rejecting the Greenback, a trend that is worsening as pre-FOMC low liquidity tends to exaggerate Market moves.Even after the monday gap down, the US President said "The value of the dollar [..] is doing great", neglecting the 3% move lower that had happened throughout the past week and creating yet another flash USD sale to 4-year lows.The effect may reverse over the afternoon as Traders brace for Powell's Speech at the FOMC press conference.On the North side of the border, the Bank of Canada just held rates steady at 2.25%, with nothing too new from the Central Bank – the economy is flattening, but nothing alarming.Governor Macklem mentioned that Canada performed better than preliminary 2025 numbers indicated – the CAD is strengthening but remains just below the USD in daily performance. About 9 bps of a hike are priced through 2026; nothing to see here.With nothing new in the Rate Decision statement, traders will focus on the upcoming Press Conference. It will be interesting to hear what the Governor has to say about recent geopolitical madness and how it affects Canada's outlook.You can access the meeting here. Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Navigating the Current Climate as Gold Taps $5300/oz, Silver Eyes Wedge BreakoutThree US tech stocks to watch after Nasdaq 100 bullish breakout above 25,830Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: A High-Stakes Test of Patience and PromiseNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how global Stocks indexes have profited from the drop in the US Dollar, particularly higher beta assets and stocks, taking the Nasdaq to the top – 4% in a volatile week is an impressive feat.The S&P 500 also marked fresh all-time highs just yesterday, pointing to some confusion factors – What holds stocks so high ahead of the Fed? Will such levels hold after the event?Dollar Index 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar took a 4% hit since January 16, with the move reaching extremes in yesterday's session.As was argued in our in-depth DXY analysis, pre-FOMC action could be faded as Participants come back to the Markets. Today's even will be quintessential, and of course, keep track of the Fed Chair nominee announcement.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance Levels2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 Support now Pivot97.00 Pivotal Resistance98.00 Key Resistance (+/- 100 pips)Pre-Greenland Resistance 99.25 to 99.50Support Levels95.50 to 95.70 Flash-crash Support95.565 Tuesday lows94.70 to 95.00 Psychological level93.00 Next Main SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 28, 2026 - Source: TradingView The one-way move in the Dollar Index translates well to the movement in individual Major FX pairs.The drop in the US Dollar spans between -2% against the Euro to -4% against the Australian Dollar.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 28, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie had been brought down by the performance of its neighbor but as the Bank of Canada day passes, it's regaining quite some strength.See how the CAD is recovering against its major peers in today's session – Expect more strengthening particularly if Oil prices explode from Middle East conflicts.Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is speaking live.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 28, 2026 – Source: TradingView The North American FX Pair just reached levels unseen since October 2024, period that was marked by sudden USD strength and CAD weakness.Now, the picture looks uncertain – the Canadian Dollar seems poised for some upside in 2026 which could lead to further downside in the pair but the USD is also looking at the stage of bouncing back.Hence, traders looking to profit from potential CAD strength could look at other Loonie pairs like CAD/CHF or CAD/GBP.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3650 to 1.3770 December Pivot and 20-period 4H MA1.3750 Pivotal Resistance1.37070 Descending Channel Highs1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pipsSupport Levels1.3535 Session and 2-year lows1.3550 Main 2025 Support (immediate test)1.35 Key Psychological Support – Pre-2025 CAD weakening levelUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as the tone could remain spicy.Keep a close eyes on the FOMC Rate Decision and particularly Powell's Press Conference, how it moves the US Dollar.Some extra factors also maintain uncertainty regarding the next Fed Chair– And don't forget about Iran.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) peaking at $5,311/oz and Silver (XAG/USD) trading around $115.10.The surge is driven by a "perfect storm" of factorsTraders eyeing a potential entry for Gold at the swing high of $5190 and monitoring Silver's wedge pattern breakout for a potential $15 rally.Key levels to watch for Silver with support at $110.00 and resistance at $116.00 before the all-time high of $117.75.January 2026 continues to prove historic for commodity markets. If you have been watching the charts, you likely saw Gold smashing through records while Silver continues its impressive climb.Now the reasons for these moves and the potential targets are what most people are discussing. Rightly so, and I thought we could take a look at the various factors at work and how to navigate the current environment from a trading perspective.The Current Rally The Gold (XAU/USD) price broke through the psychological barrier of $5,300, reaching a peak of $5,311 in early trading. This marks the eighth straight day of record-setting gains for the yellow metal.Silver (XAG/USD) Silver is also performing exceptionally well, trading around $115.10. It is currently holding steady above the $115.00 mark and pushing back toward its own record high of $117.74, set just a few days ago on Monday, January 26.Why Are Prices Rising Today? There isn't just one reason for this surge; it is a "perfect storm" of several factors driving investors toward safe assets.Safe-Haven Demand (Fear in the Markets) Markets are nervous, and when they get nervous, they buy Gold and Silver. Current geopolitical tensions are high. News of friction between the US and NATO regarding Greenland, alongside ongoing issues in the Russia-Ukraine war and Iran-US tensions has people looking for safety.A Weaker US Dollar. One of the main reasons for this week's sharp rally in Gold and Silver has been the ‘demise’ of the US Dollar that has slid to its lowest level in four years.Since commodities like Gold and Silver are priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes them cheaper for foreign buyers, driving up demand. Reports suggest a growing "crisis of confidence" in some US assets is fueling this drop which include concerns about Fed independence. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Federal Reserve Expectations. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve today. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. However, there is a strong belief that interest rates will be cut later this year. Lower interest rates are generally good for Gold and Silver because they don't pay interest like bonds do; when rates fall, metals become more attractive and this hope continues to underpin the longer term bull trend.Trade War & Tariff Fears Talk of new tariffs and trade disputes involving the US, Canada, and China is adding to the uncertainty. This "trade war" atmosphere is a classic driver for precious metal rallies.Potential Opportunities Moving Forward - Gold & Silver Moving forward and the bulls look to be firmly in control.Going against the strong trend at the moment does not appear to be a wise move. The lack of historic price action will make a potential short at this stage guesswork at best.Picking a top is not easy in the best of circumstances let alone one with such little price action to evaluate.Now that is not to say that short-term intraday opportunities may not present themselves. The current volatility evident in markets means attractive risk-to-reards may be achieved even from an intraday perspective.Looking at the Gold one-hour chart, and trying to keep things simple, the ideal move from here for those looking to get involved would be a pullback to the 50-day MA and breakout level of $5105. However that level is quite far from current prices and may not materialize.A more immediate area that would be bulls could eye for an entry may be the swing high from January 27 at the $5190 handle. This may provide bulls with an excellent risk-to-reward opportunity either heading into or post the FOMC event later today.Gold One-hour chart, January 28, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Silver Technical OutlookLooking at the one-hour silver chart and we do have more to work with.SIlver is trading in a wedge pattern, with a breakout opening up a potential $15 rally. This is about a 10% move which is significant to say the least.This is definitely a setup worth monitoring. A break to the downside may find support at the psychological 110.00 handle before the 100-day MA at 105.48 and the psychological 100.00 mark come into play.A move to the upside here faces hurdles at the 116.00 handle before the all-time highs at 117.75 comes into focus.Silver one-hour chart, January 28, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The January FOMC is one session away, and similarly to the September Meeting, Forex Market action is quite volatile ahead of the event.Traders are still reflecting on the many themes ongoing in Markets, including Trump Administration chaos, generational runs in Metals, Q4 Earnings, Iran, and global trade deals that are getting all over the place.This week began on a significant gap down in the US Dollar, with the past week's steep selling flows extending to test a significant 2025 Support (on the Dollar Index). zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart, January 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Over the past week, post-Greenland threat selling flows have gathered such traction ahead of the FOMC that no mean reversion can take place. Look for reactions around the 97.00 level after the meeting: a close above should signal further upside, and vice versa.Discover further details for the Dollar Index through our latest in-depth analysis.Some factors influencing the Dollar include the anticipated announcement of the next Fed Chair. In the meantime, there aren't many reasons except for Dollar bulls to push their bids ahead of the meeting (14:00 E.T. tomorrow).Other FX currencies are also doing their own thing, with picture-changing releases for Antipodean currencies, the Swissie reaching its second-highest level ever against the USD, FX intervention fears in Japan, and more.We will dive into an intraday chart outlook for all Major FX Currency pairs and provide trading levels for the upcoming huge FOMC event. Read More:How long can the Fed still defend its independence?Chart alert: Silver 13% flash crash has not damaged its bullish trendMarkets Today: EU/India Reach Trade Deal, Gold Holds Highs, Puma Soars 19%, FTSE 100 Eyes Further GainsAll FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the September FOMCNZD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels – Holding a Tight Bull Channel zoom_out_map NZD/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for NZD/USD:Resistance LevelsSeptember 2025 Resistance – Imminent test 0.60 to 0.60150July 2025 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.60702025 High Resistance 0.6120Support Levels0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) Key Momentum Pivot0.59 (+/- 50 pips) Mini-Support0.5850 December High SupportMain Support 0.5720 to 0.5750USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels – Testing key support zoom_out_map USD/JPY 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView The 4H 50-period MA is about to cross the 200 MA from above, a bearish sign but USD/JPY moves on Intervention fears – Be careful there!FOMC Trading Levels for USD/JPY:Resistance Levels154.00 Momentum Pivot155.00 Major Resistance, higher timeframe pivot156.00 Key ResistanceMini-resistance 157.00 to 157.30Support LevelsImminent Support from 152.80 to 153.00Key Momentum Support 151.50 to 152.00July 150.00 to 150.90 Main supportAUD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels – Breaking September 2024 highs zoom_out_map AUD/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView Check out our very recent AUD/USD in-detail piece right here!The breakout is a huge one – Keep a close eye on the 4H 20-period MA which tracks the buying momentum well: Closing below would hint at a reversal (not looking close for now)FOMC Trading Levels for AUD/USD:Resistance levelsDaily highs 0.69740Dec 2021 Lows 0.70 to 0.7050 Major Resistance2023 Highs and 0.71 ResistanceSupport levels0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 Pivot4H MA 20 0.68930Micro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Minor support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)0.66 to 0.6630 December SupportEUR/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Breaking 2025 highs zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView EUR/USD is breaking out higher but watch the reactions to the 200-Month Moving Average (at 1.19510) which will act as a key Indicator for future action.FOMC Levels to watch for EURUSD:Resistance Levels:200-Month Moving Average 1.19512Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 Zone (testing)1.20 psychological level and 2021 highsSupport Levels:Main Pivot 1.18 to 1.1840 and Channel lows1.1750 Intermediate Support (+/- 150 pips)1.1640 to 1.1660 Intermediate Support1.1580 to 1.16 January Bounce SupportUSD/CHF 4H Chart and technical levels – Reaching 2nd lowest levels ever zoom_out_map USD/CHF 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView Watch out for the consequent divergence showing up on the shorter timeframes – Reactions after the FOMC could be very swift.Breaking current lows could lead to a test of the 0.76 Psychological levelFOMC Levels to watch for USD/CHF:Resistance Levels0.7950 Key pivotLong-term pivot 0.80 Zone (0.80 to 0.8010)Main resistance 0.8150 to 0.82 (last highs 0.8165)May 2025 highs 0.8475 Resistance ZoneSupport LevelsSession lows support 0.76700.7660 Session lows0.76 Psychological level0.70696 All-Time LowsGBP/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs zoom_out_map GBP/USD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Resistance Levels2025 Highs 1.378402025 Highs resistance 1.3760 to 1.381.3850 to 1.39 2021 ResistanceSupport LevelsResistance turned pivot at the 1.36 zoneDecember Resistance turned Support 1.35680 to 1.36Key Support 1.3450 to 1.34650USD/CAD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 27, 2026, Source: TradingView Levels to watch for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3650 to 1.3770 December Pivot1.3750 Pivotal Resistance1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pipsSupport LevelsSession lows 1.359601.3565 2025 lows1.3550 to 1.3570 Main 2025 Support1.34 Next Main SupportSafe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldMicrosoft is set to report its fiscal second-quarter earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. As one of the marquee names in the "Magnificent Seven," Microsoft’s results will not only determine the trajectory of its own stock which has notably lagged peers like Meta over the last two years but will also likely set the tone for the broader Nasdaq 100 and the ongoing AI trade.Market participants are looking past simple headline beats, focusing instead on three critical pillars: the re-acceleration of Azure, tangible AI monetization, and the sustainability of margins amidst ballooning capital expenditures.What to Expect? Analysts have maintained a stable outlook for Microsoft, projecting robust double-digit growth despite broader market jitters.Earnings Per Share (EPS): Wall Street expects EPS to grow approximately 20% year-over-year.Revenue: Total revenue is forecast to rise by roughly 15% year-over-year.Intelligent Cloud: This remains the most critical metric. Consensus estimates peg Intelligent Cloud revenue at $32.4 billion, representing a strong 27% YoY increase.Microsoft has strung together three consecutive beats on cloud revenue, and the market will be looking for a continuation of this trend. However, in the current environment, meeting expectations may not be enough; the quality of the beat matters. zoom_out_map Source: Yahoo Finance, Created by Zain Vawda Key Focus Areas for Market Participants Azure: Stabilization or Re-acceleration?The primary driver of Microsoft’s narrative remains Azure. The debate among institutional investors has shifted from "is growth slowing?" to "is it re-accelerating?" Investors want to see if the "optimization cycles" where clients cut cloud spend to save money are fully in the rearview mirror.A key metric to watch will be commercial bookings and RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations), which offer a window into future demand. If Azure growth shows clear signs of re-acceleration, it could reignite the bullish thesis. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, Yahoo Finance The AI Reality Check: CapEx vs. MonetizationMicrosoft has been spending heavily to build out the infrastructure required for AI, a strategy described as "spend now, payoff later."CapEx: Expect capital expenditures to remain elevated. The market is increasingly sensitive to this "AI tax" on margins. If CapEx guidance jumps without a corresponding increase in revenue guidance, the stock could be punished.Monetization: It is time for receipts. Investors need proof that products like Copilot are generating incremental, billable revenue, not just "strategic value." Specific data points regarding Copilot uptake across enterprise seats will be scrutinized heavily.Margins: The Efficiency Balancing ActWith AI costs rising, operating margins are under the microscope. The market will be watching to see if efficiencies in the core cloud business are sufficient to offset the massive data center and energy costs associated with AI. Any guidance suggesting a compression in margins could weigh heavily on the stock, given its premium valuation.Potential Implications for Microsoft Share Price & Nasdaq 100 For Microsoft (MSFT) Stock:Microsoft shares have underperformed the S&P 500 recently and are currently down roughly 18.5% from their record highs, nearing the technical definition of a bear market (a 20% drop).Bull Case: A "Goldilocks" report stabilizing cloud growth, proof of AI revenue, and disciplined margin management could trigger a sharp relief rally.Bear Case: If Azure misses or if management signals that the "payoff" phase of their AI spend is further out than expected, the stock could break support levels, potentially targeting the psychological $500 handle and beyond or lower gaps near $395..Microsoft Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView For the Nasdaq 100:As a heavyweight in the index, Microsoft’s movement will drag the market with it.Sentiment Bellwether: A disappointment here would validate fears that the AI trade has become overheated and capital-inefficient, likely sparking a selloff in other hyperscalers like Nvidia and Alphabet.Valuation Sensitivity: The broader tech sector is currently grappling with high valuations. Microsoft needs to justify its multiple; failing to do so could spark a broader correction in the Nasdaq 100 as market participants reassess the risk-reward profile of the entire AI sector.Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, January 27, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView The Bottom Line Microsoft enters this earnings season with a "show me" label attached to it. The "AI promise" phase is ending; the "AI profit" phase must begin. For market participants, the play isn't just about the earnings beat, it's about the guidance and the assurance that the billions being poured into data centers are starting to flow back as cash.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nasdaq 100 breaks higher after weeks of lagging: After underperforming US peers due to sector rotation away from mega-cap tech, the Nasdaq 100 has finally broken out of a 7-week consolidation range, signalling a bullish catch-up phase may be underway.Mega-cap earnings are the near-term catalyst: With Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple reporting Q4 earnings this week, results could jolt the index out of its slumber and validate the recent upside breakout.Technical and breadth signals now support the bullish bias: RSI has broken out of a descending trendline, price has cleared key resistance, and market breadth has improved meaningfully, with a growing share of Nasdaq 100 stocks trading above their 20-day and 50-day moving averages. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Nasdaq 100 bullish momentum is building up”, published on 8 January 2026.The mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 00 has lagged its US peers and other major global benchmark stock indices, as it only recorded a meagre year-to-date gain of 1.8% as of Monday, 26 January 2026, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.8%), and small-cap Russell 2000 (+7.2%), while slightly higher versus the S&P 500 (+1.5%) (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: YTD performance of US & global major stock indices as of 26 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The current underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 within the US stock market has been attributed to a sector rotation towards industrials, energy, and basic materials due to geopolitics and the current US White House administration’s expansionary/aggressive foreign policy.Mega-tech earnings may jolt the Nasdaq 100 up from its slumber A big earnings week for US mega-cap technology stocks as four of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” will report their respective Q4 2025 earnings results this week.Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla will report their earnings results on Wednesday, 28 January, after the close of the US session, followed by Apple on Thursday, 29 January, also after the close of the US session.Interestingly, technical factors are now indicating that the current laggard Nasdaq 100 is likely to stage a bullish catch-up.Let’s reveal the relevant charts and the Nasdaq 100 short-term (1-3 days) trajectoryShort-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Evolving into a bullish trend zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend as of 27 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) After a choppy price configuration from 15 January to 21 January 2026, the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has now evolved into a minor bullish trend, with an intraday bullish breakout above the 7-week range resistance zone at 25,760/25,830.Watch the 25,500 short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) to maintain the bullish tone, with the next intermediate resistance coming in at 26,107, followed by the current all-time area of 26,290 in the first step.On the flip side, a break with an hourly close below 25,500 invalidates the bullish scenario to see another round of choppy minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 25,350 (also the 50-day moving average). Below it sees further potential weakness towards 25,105/25,030 support next.Key elements to support the bullish bias zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index medium-term trend as of 8 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: % of Nasdaq 100 component stocks above 20-day MA & 50-day MA as of 26 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The daily RSI momentum indicator of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index has staged a bullish breakout above a key parallel descending trendline, which increases the odds of a price action bullish breakout from the 7-week range resistance of 23,830 (Fig. 3).Market breadth has improved considerably. Over the past month, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 20-day moving averages has increased significantly from 33% on 31 December 2025 to 53% as of Monday, 26 January 2026. Similarly, the percentage of Nasdaq 100 component stocks that are trading above their respective 50-day moving averages jumped by 10 percentage points to 57% over the same period (Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Markets rally as no geopolitical surprise occurred over the weekendUS Indexes are consolidating as traders are awaiting for FOMC to push for a new directionExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The week has just begun, and traders are already pushing global markets across all asset classes – without any economic data releases. Gold reached $5,000 during the Asia session, and Silver is up 10% to $111; metals are not showing any signs of stalling in their relentless rallies.Monday marks yet another discrepancy in investor sentiment: Stocks are rallying from last week's earnings, the unwinding of weekend risk positioning, and pre-FOMC trading, while cryptocurrencies keep seeing outflows. Bitcoin holds at $87,000, but most other altcoins are struggling to gather momentum.With the latest announcements of a "massive armada" massing in the Middle East, volatility is expected to remain elevated, and economists remain on edge – Oil dazzled in up-and-down trading, but its contained action shows this isn't the primary concern for traders – at least for now! A surprising move in other asset classes has been the rebound in the longer-end of the Bond curve – After a disastrous performance last week, the 30Y Bond is bouncing higher (Yields down), supported by better-looking Japanese yields (their bond market has been breaking lower for a while).Lower yields are showing support to stocks around this phase in Markets – Stocks have reacted negatively to higher yields from the US uncertainty. zoom_out_map US 30Y Bonds (Yields below) – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Participants are also anxiously awaiting the announcement of the next Fed Chair, which should come before the end of January (i.e., this week!).Overall, with the US Dollar thrashing lower (an in-depth analysis will be coming up this afternoon), the theme for this week's start is one of caution:Key Mag 7 earnings, geopolitics, and the FOMC are not risks to underestimate. zoom_out_map Key Earnings Calendar throughout this week – January 26, 2026 – Courtesy of Earnings Whispers With only tomorrow's ADP weekly report, Wall Street will keep a close eye on geopolitical risks and earnings, including Apple, Meta, Microsoft, ASML, and Tesla, in between key Blue Chip Stocks reports (Visa, Mastercard, GM, AT&T, IBM, and more). zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:20 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 26, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Semiconductors are doing the heavy-lifting in today's sessions. Microsoft (MSFT) is leading its peers to the upside, while Defensives and Financials drag lower as their earnings season is now complete for the most-part.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for weekend volatility as the situation is not fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Markets Today: Gold Breaches $5100/oz, Yen Intervention Risks Grow, Dollar Slides. USD/JPY Test 100-Day MAFOMC Meeting Preview: Fed To Keep Rates on Hold, Implications for the DXY and GoldGet ready for an agitated FOMC Week – Markets Weekly OutlookDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The DJIA is now rallying within a tighter range (48,600 to 49,600) as investors await for FOMC communications – Today's rebounding action got contained at 49,400 highs (Keep this level in check for the week).As risk-sentiment stays contained from the high-potential risk, expect further consolidation in the upcoming 48 hours (FOMC is on Wednesday at 14:00).This view is reflected by the RSI tilting higher but not taking a significant bullish shape and the up-and-down trend lines forming a triangle formation.The main risk for this week remains a US Intervention in Iran which could provide a sudden risk-off move which would happen in a flash, so it could be wise to prepare accordingly in case – Any heavy volume close below the past week lows (48,339) would be the confirming sign.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 49,391Friday highs 49,663Short Timeframe resistance 49,200 to 49,300 (immediate rejection)49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport LevelsChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 and Triangle lowsIntraday support 48,600 to 48,700 (4H 200-period MA)Psychological Support and range lows at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now showing very decent strength as investors rush to position for strong Q4 Earnings from Mag 7s and Tech giants.Panic from October overvaluation themes had seen names like Nvidia, Microsoft and Meta struggling harshm but the immediate action is looking much better.The Tech-Heavy index is now attempting to complete its past week measured move to retest its all-time highs. Any close above 25,833 would confirm the push to higher levels.Don't forget that Nasdaq would also get severely hit from risk-aversion in the event of an Iran attack.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,817 (testing range highs)Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850Measured move target 26,050All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,503Wednesday lows 24,91324,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 26, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Spoose is also showing similar measured-move patterns which should materialize if the FOMC doesn't get too hawkish (current tone is neutral/cautious hence more dovish).In the event where the Iran situation tones down or takes a better direction, stocks could easily get launched to some new highs – The measured move points to at least 7,020.Depending on sentiment, the Index could get further with Fibonacci projections hanging between 7,060 to 7,130.A reminder that hawkish communications from the Fed ("we need to keep rates as they are", etc) would hurt sentiment.The reverse applies for dovish communications ("further rate cuts can be expected through the cycle", a bigger emphasis on the labor market,...)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,962 and countingPrevious ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a successful FOMC Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on January 28, 2026 will be an intriguing one.The current economic data is showing a strange pattern that doesn't follow the usual rules: the US economy is growing very fast with estimates suggesting a massive 5.4% growth rate for Q4 but at the same time, the job market is slowing down.Meanwhile, inflation is stuck at 3.0%, which is higher than what the central bank wants to see.Usually, fast growth leads to higher inflation and a hot job market, but that isn't happening right now. This split could mean that businesses are becoming much more efficient and productive.However, it could also be a warning sign that the economy is starting to "overheat" (growing too fast to be sustainable), even if it doesn't look like it yet due to temporary factors.Heading into the meeting and market participants are pricing in around a 97% probability of a rate hold at Wednesdays meeting. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG The Political Economy of 2026 The January 2026 meeting cannot be analyzed in a vacuum of economic data. It occurs within a "storm" of political pressure that threatens the institutional integrity of the Federal Reserve.The "Eye of the Storm"The Rabobank report characterizes the current environment as "In the Eye of the Storm". This metaphor is apt. The "storm" is the friction between President Trump’s administration and the Federal Reserve.Executive Pressure: President Trump has increasingly tightened his "grip" on the Fed. His administration explicitly favors lower interest rates to boost growth and reduce the cost of servicing the national debt.The "Quartermaster": The report mentions a "quartermaster" named Miran—likely a key economic aide or shadow advisor—who advocated for a 50 basis point cut in December. This reveals the delta between the Fed’s action (25 bps) and the Administration’s desire (50 bps). The pressure is for more easing, faster.The Powell Subpoena and ExitChair Jerome Powell is under siege. He faces a subpoena and a Department of Justice investigation.Unprecedented Legal Pressure: Never in modern history has a sitting Fed Chair been subject to such overt legal pressure from the executive branch. This is designed to weaken his standing and force compliance with the low-rate agenda.Powell's Response: Powell is expected to be defiant in the press conference, likely stating he has "said all he has to say". However, the psychological toll and the distraction are undeniable.The May Transition: Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, 2026. This date is the event horizon for monetary policy.Scenario A: Powell leaves quietly. Trump appoints a loyalist.Scenario B: Powell fights to stay on the Board of Governors (his term as Governor lasts until 2028). Trump has warned that Powell’s life "won't be very happy" if he does this. If Powell stays, he denies Trump a vacancy on the Board, preventing the appointment of a crucial swing vote.The June PivotThe forecast for a rate cut in June 2026 is heavily predicated on this political transition. Rabobank explicitly states they have "higher confidence" in a June cut because "this will be the first meeting led by the new Fed Chair".Implication: The market is pricing in a political reaction function. The expectation is that the new Chair will be appointed with a mandate to cut rates, regardless of whether inflation is 3.0% or GDP is 5.4%. This expectation of a "politicized pivot" is a key driver of the Gold rally and Dollar weakness.Market Implications for FX The relationship between US politics and money is changing how the world views different currencies. Right now, the US dollar is on a downward trend for a few key reasons:Why the Dollar is WeakeningThe "Bearish" Case: The U.S. Dollar Index (an indicator of the dollar's strength) has dropped to around 97.00.Falling Interest Rates: Even though the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) has paused some moves, investors know that interest rates are likely headed lower, potentially down to around 3.0%–3.25% by the end of the year. When interest rates in the US fall while other countries stay steady, the dollar becomes less attractive to market participants..The "Governance Discount": Market participants are becoming worried about political friction in Washington. Specifically, public disagreements between the White House and the Federal Reserve make people feel the central bank might lose its independence. This makes the dollar seem like a riskier place to keep money.How Other Currencies Are ReactingThe Euro (EUR/USD): The Euro has climbed to around $1.19. Experts believe it will continue to rise throughout 2026 because European interest rates are becoming more competitive compared to US rates.The British Pound (GBP/USD): The Pound has reached its highest level in four months, hitting nearly $1.37. This is happening because the global economy seems to be heading for a "soft landing" (slowing down without a major crash), which usually helps the Pound.The Future of the DollarThe outlook for the dollar is shaky. If the Federal Reserve appoints a new leader who prefers lower interest rates, the dollar index could fall even further. Currently, the dollar's only real "lifelines" would be a sudden spike in US inflation (which would force rates back up) or a major global crisis that makes people run back to the dollar for safety.However, with Gold reaching record highs above $5,100, it appears that many investors are now choosing "hard assets" like gold instead of the US dollar when they want to play it safe.Monetary Policy Outlook The path for the rest of 2026 is the subject of intense debate among market participants.The consensus among analysts and market participants (2-3 cuts) is more dovish than the Fed (1 cut). This discrepancy is the source of market volatility. If the Fed sticks to its guns (1 cut), yields will rise, and equities/gold could correct.If the Fed capitulates (3 cuts), the "melt-up" continues.There is also the possibility that the Fed may stick to its guns of 1 cut while market participants hold their expectations steady at 2-3 cuts. In such a scenario, the immediate market reaction may be rather muted.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, January 26, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Key Levels to Focus OnSupport:96.3795.0094.50Resistance:97.7098.67100.00Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US dollar recorded its weakest week since May, falling 1.5% on Dollar Index, driven mainly by political uncertainty rather than shifts in monetary policy or bond yields.Erratic policy signals from President Donald Trump have increased investor caution, triggering a move into safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, while pressuring the dollar broadly.With the Federal Reserve in focus and concerns growing over its future independence, markets are increasingly pricing in further downside risks for the dollar The US dollar is posting its weakest week since May, losing ground against most major currencies. Dollar Index (DXY) fell by more than 0.5% on Friday and is down 1.6% for the week, marking its worst performance in over eight months. Importantly, the current weakness of the dollar is not the result of a sharp shift in monetary policy expectations, but rather a surge in political uncertainty in the United States. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY), weekly timeframe, source: TradingView Trump as the main source of uncertaintyThe key factor weighing on the dollar is the unpredictable and often contradictory policy stance of Donald Trump. Investors were unsettled by threats of tariffs against Europe linked to disputes over Greenland, followed by a rapid retreat from a confrontational tone after an agreement with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte during the World Economic Forum in Davos. At the same time, US Treasury yields have remained relatively stable, reinforcing the view that political risk, rather than monetary factors, is currently the dominant force shaping the dollar. Right now the dollar has become a safety valve for US risk.Flight to safe-haven currenciesThe global foreign exchange reaction underscores rising aversion to US-related risk. The Japanese yen strengthened by more than 1%, moving to around 156.14 per dollar. The move accelerated following a press conference by Kazuo Ueda, head of the Bank of Japan, and during periods of low liquidity in Europe. zoom_out_map Daily Timeframe of USDJPY, source: TradingView Additional uncertainty was introduced by comments from Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama, who neither confirmed nor denied possible currency intervention. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached its strongest level since September, and the Canadian dollar recorded its best day since December, highlighting the broad-based pressure on the US currency. zoom_out_map Daily timeframe of USDCHF, source: TradingView The Fed in the spotlightAnother source of volatility is the upcoming meeting of the Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in one rate cut around mid-year and the possibility of another in 2026. The dollar is also burdened by concerns over potential threats to the Fed’s independence and fears that a successor to Jerome Powell could move more quickly to ease policy under political pressure. zoom_out_map Fed Watchtool Conditional Meeting Probabilities, source: cmegroup.com Downside Pressure on the Dollar May PersistThe current weakness of the dollar stems primarily from political turmoil and rising institutional uncertainty rather than deteriorating US economic fundamentals. As long as these factors remain in play, downward pressure on the US currency is likely to persist, especially against traditional safe-haven currencies. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock traders are rebalancing their positions ahead of next week's FOMC and key earningsAfter the past two rebounding sessions, weekend risks and high-tier events stalls the impulseExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Stocks are back to quite a decent outlook, and Markets are all out on yet another phase of the Debasement Trade, which just took Silver to $100 and Gold to $5,000.However, as we head into the weekend, some factors of uncertainty could create significant volatility and change the current market picture in high fashion.One of the first and most evident yet easily overlooked is the Federal Chair appointment announced by the US President.As evidenced in this remarkable piece, Trump suggested a decision around his return to the White House from Davos (and he just came back).The race is between Rick Reider, BlackRock's CEO, and a well-positioned Wall Street veteran who could be the surprise. His appointment would reassure the US Dollar and bond markets the most.On the other hand, Kevin Warsh, the heavy favorite, an ex-Governor at the Fed from 2006-2011 (rough period), could maintain the current trend. Any communications regarding the decision will be market-rocking. zoom_out_map Fed Chair nominees Prediction-Market odds – Source: Kalshi A second risk catalyst for this weekend is the high potential for geopolitical catalysts as we conclude a period full of headlines – heavy US military assets are concentrating in the Middle East, and my thesis is that the Greenland issue was being offered as a distraction.On that aspect, Oil is up 2.50% and still rebounding at its Risk-Premium support area – Check out our latest in-depth analysis for WTI to learn more.We will see more on this this weekend – If nothing happens, expect stocks to keep up their path higher.A third potential volatility contributor could be current Market levels – with Gold reaching $5,000, Silver exploding by 250% to $100, and Stock Markets at all-time highs, one small profit-taking wave can turn into a significant selling cascade, particularly as we approach the FOMC.All three factors, when combined, could significantly affect the Market picture, so keep an eye on how they interact. zoom_out_map Morning US Data – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView In terms of today's action, US Consumer Sentiment just beat expectations, and Inflation expectations cooled down, usually a positive for the Market, but with key tech Earnings (helping Nasdaq to outperform) and the Fed Meeting approaching (January 28), don't expect a straightforward path ahead.As a reminder, Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and ASML report after the close on FOMC day, while Apple and Visa follow on Thursday. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:39 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 23, 2026 Magnificent 7s and Semiconductors are doing the heavy-lifting in today's sessions. Microsoft (MSFT) is leading its peers to the upside, while Defensives and Financials drag lower as their earnings season is now complete for the most-part.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for weekend volatility as the situation is not fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Platinum on pace to $3,000 – Will XPT/USD have a safe path to the milestone?Chart alert: USD/JPY plunging below 158 on suspected intervention, watch 157.50 supportGold rally hits $4,900: Why the January FOMC, geopolitics, and technical warnings mark a critical juncture?Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow just rejected its all-time highs, not so surprising as we head into the weekend and the direction has mostly stayed rangebound since 2026.The range, extending between 48,000 and 49,700 provides levels of interest for upcoming action:A clear break above should see fast-paced continuation, first to the 50,000 Milestone and surely higher (particularly if the recent doubts and uncertainties get resolved)Any weekly close below 48,000 can precede more downside, potentially extending to 45,000.For the short-run watch if the current retracement stalls at the 4H 200-MA (48,663), which would be the most bullish corrective outlook Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMorning highs 49,663Short Timeframe resistance 49,200 to 49,30049,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,041 4H 20-period MAChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000Intraday support 48,600 to 48,700 (4H 200-period MA)Psychological Support and range lows at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now taking the lead (for the first time in a while) in today's action, as traders reposition ahead of next week's high-expectation-earnings. The pressure is high for the tech-heavy index: These early 2026 reports will reflect on this current year's projections and 2025 numbers as P/E Ratios reach elevated levels, particularly for Mag 7s.The index is still showing a decent rebound in today's session, and looking at the previous days' action, a breakout of its 24,000 to 25,800 Range could be close.A measured move hints at a retest of the All-Time High records.This will, of course, need to be accompanied by positive (or at least not too pessimistic) fundamentals – A break and close above the 25,850 level should see continuation.Next week's earnings will have a key influence on the Nasdaq Movement. Keep a close eye on the Fed's communications next week.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,733 (range highs, key test)Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,428Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P is still contained within its main 6,800 to 6,975 Range – Showing similar conditions as the Nasdaq, expect similar breakout scenarios:A break above the 7,000 All-Time Highs with volume should lead to continued upside.A rejection and close below the 6,800 key support should see profit-taking acceleration.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,938Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a Blessed weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Precious Metals are still under severe demand despite better looking EU-US TensionsPlatinum is breaking its record highs by the session, following its Gold and Silver peersExploring Multi-timeframe Technical Levels for XPT/USD as it heads to $3,000 Even with EU-US tensions subsiding, the metals complex remains white-hot, tearing through fresh record highs by the session.Gold, the benchmark for the sector, is now trading less than $100 away from the Key $5,000 milestone.Silver, which showed some hesitation during the peak of the Greenland scare, has resumed its ascent and is on a clear path to $100 per ounce. Despite tighter margin requirements, the supply bottleneck is dominating price movements; industrial users have no choice but to pay up for physical delivery.However, Platinum is carving out its own narrative. While Gold and Silver dominate the headlines and volume, White Gold is up an impressive 200% since January 1, 2025, rivaling the 245% gain seen in Silver (XAG/USD) over the same period. zoom_out_map Metals Performance since 2025 – Source: TradingView Significant alpha remains in trading these proxies as long as the macro catalysts—currency debasement, geopolitical instability, and high global deficits—hold true. With these drivers firmly in place, precious metals continue to see heavy inflows.While supply response may eventually trigger a correction, the current squeeze is undeniable – Late participants to the rally are piling into Platinum, driving it to new record levels. For those who did not know, Platinum is actually rarer than Gold – It has less attraction for Central Banks but still represent the top-notch of precious metals.We will now examine the technicals of XPT/USD through a multi-timeframe analysis to see why it may be the favored trade in the days ahead. Read More:Gold rally hits $4,900: Why the January FOMC, geopolitics, and technical warnings mark a critical juncture?Chart alert: Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing $5,000 and beyond as bullish acceleration intactChart alert: USD/JPY plunging below 158 on suspected intervention, watch 157.50 supportPlatinum (XPT/USD) Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Platinum Daily Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum is extending higher after a 3-week triangle consolidation which allowed overbought RSI levels to come back to more sustainable levels, now also forming a Daily Upward Channel.Bulls have reacted strongly to the test of the 20-Day Moving Average (currently at $2,325) and stands as significant technical indicator to monitor the trend. Remaining above keeps up prospects for the metal.A key potential Fibonacci Extension (found using End-December down swings) projects a potential resistance at $2,700.Looking at the immediate bull strength, the resistance could easily be breached However, there could be profit-taking warnings as Silver and Gold reach their new milestones which could lead to further reactions in XPT/USD.Rejecting $2,700 could see a quick test of the $2,400 Pivot Zone (breakout-retest)Breaking back above $2,770 will see no resistance until the $2,900 to $3,000 projection.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum 4H Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,695 current session and all-time highsPotential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000 and Channel highsSupport levels$2,450 to $2,525 December record Pivot$2,400 4H MA 50 and 20-Day MA$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Pivotal Support 2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,920Major High Timeframe Support $1,500 to $1,6001H Chart zoom_out_map Platinum 1H Chart, January 23, 2026 – Source: TradingView Platinum has extended towards the $2,700 potential resistance zone – The buying is now stalling a bit.Observing closely, we can monitor the current session's Bull Channel – Rejecting here would add further chances of a $2,400 to $2,520 corrective retest.Nevertheless, with the daily buying being so strong, an upside breakout could also be considered – If bulls push above $2,770, expect a fast-paced path to $2,900-$3,000.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Gold’s bullish acceleration remains intact: XAU/USD has broken above key supports, hit new all-time highs near US$4,970, and is now eyeing the US$5,000–5,150 zone, with momentum indicators confirming upside continuation.Geopolitics are the dominant macro driver: Rising US–NATO tensions and “sell America/de-dollarization” narratives are lifting geopolitical risk premiums, reinforcing gold’s role as a preferred safe haven.Technical structure supports further upside: A breakout from a medium-term ascending channel, strong RSI/MACD signals, and support holding above US$4,775 keep the near-term bias skewed toward further gains unless that level fails. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) on the brink of bullish acceleration, US$4,780 next”, published on 14 January 2026The precious yellow metal has staged the expected bullish impulsive up move sequence above the highlighted US$4,512 short-term pivotal support and hit the short-term intermediate resistance of US$4,780 (printed a new intraday all-time high of US$4,967 on Friday, 23 January 2026 at the time of writing).Rising geopolitical risk premiums due to expansionary US foreign policy The recent rise in Gold (XAU/USD) from last Friday, 16 January 2026 swing low of US$4,536 has been reinforced by the “sell America/de-dollarization/debasement” narrative due to the current US expansionary and aggressive foreign policy, where US President Trump threatened long-time NATO allies of the US over the control of Greenland.The escalating confrontation between the US and NATO members signals a potential rupture in the post–World War II global order, with Washington increasingly perceived as stepping away from its traditional role as a responsible anchor of the rules-based, consensus-driven system.As a result, global asset allocators that have heavily overweighted US assets over the past two decades may begin to reassess and trim such exposures amid rising geopolitical risk premiums. This repricing dynamic is reinforcing a positive feedback loop for gold (XAU/USD), as demand for safe-haven assets accelerates in response to an increasingly fragmented and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.Let us now decipher the latest short-term (1 to 3 days) trend trajectory of Gold (XAU/USD) from a technical analysis perspectiveShort-term trend (1 to 3 days): Bullish acceleration extends zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term & major trends as of 23 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$4,775 short-term pivotal support on Gold (XAU/USD) to maintain the minor bullish acceleration phase for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$5,000/5,005 and US$5,049/5,149 in the first step (see Fig. 1).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below US$4,775 invalidates the direct rise scenario, allowing a minor corrective decline sequence to unfold and expose the next intermediate supports at US$4,684 and US$4,645/4,600 before another potential bullish upleg materializes.Key elements to support the bullish bias Since its key low of US$4,536 on 16 January 2026, Gold (XAU/USD) has staged a gap-up and broken above the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel from its 28 October 2025 low, which suggests a transition into a bullish acceleration phase.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has not flashed out any bearish divergence condition while it continues to hover in its overbought region.The daily MACD trend indicator has continued to trend upwards above its centreline, which supports the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase in Gold (XAU/USD) with its first medium-term resistance at US$5,295/5,348 (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Talking points Rare drivers fuel surge: Rally past $4,900 driven by inflation, fiscal expansion (Stagflation), and geopolitical risk; 2026. Goldman Sachs targets raised to $5,400.FOMC narrative is key: Jan 27-28 meeting expected to hold rates. Focus is on "Neutral Rate" rhetoric: 3.5% terminal rate risks pullback; cooling labor market focus provides a tailwind.Upside supported, retracement warned: COT shows Managed Money not over-extended, however, swap dealers are at their extremes. Highly elevated RSI (78.00) and Stochastic (87.90) show divergence, warning of a potential retracement. The historic rally in gold prices, which saw the metal surge past $4,900 per ounce in late 2025 and early 2026, was driven by a rare convergence of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors. With the January 27–28th, 2026, FOMC meeting approaching, the backdrop of high-altitude stability for gold is in focus. Prices have already surged significantly—trading near $4,800–$5,000—driven by a combination of fiscal expansion, geopolitical friction, and institutional uncertainty. The January meeting is less about a "rate move" and more about the "narrative shift."How this meeting is poised to impact gold prices: zoom_out_map Source: CME Group - FOMC January 27 - 28th 2026 meeting - Past performance is not indicative of future results The "Pause" and interest rate path According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the futures markets are pricing in just under two 25-bps interest rate cuts for 2026, with the cut expectations mostly for the second half of 2026. Lower nominal rates reduce the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, which pays no interest, making it more competitive against Treasury bonds.For the January 27 - 28, 2026, FOMC meeting, the market consensus is that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% after a string of cuts in late 2025. The CME Fedwatch tool has 95% of participants expecting the FED to hold, meaning a pause is largely priced in. However, gold’s sensitivity to the "Neutral Rate" remains the key variable. If Chair Powell’s press conference suggests that 3.5% is the new floor (the terminal rate) due to resilient growth, gold could see a short-term "profit-taking" pullback. Conversely, if the Fed expresses concern over the cooling labor market (currently adding only 50k jobs/month), markets will pull forward expectations for a June cut, providing a tailwind for non-yielding bullion.Inflation vs. fiscal policy Concerns around Stagflation dominate the 2026 economic landscape. Inflation remains stubbornly above the 2% target, remaining near 2.7%–2.8%, while expansionary fiscal policies and tax cuts are propping up growth.Historically, gold has thrived when the Fed was perceived as "behind the curve." If the FOMC statement acknowledges that inflation progress has stalled but refuses to hike rates (due to growth risks), it reinforces gold's status as the ultimate inflation hedge.Institutional independence & geopolitical risk Unusually for an FOMC meeting, non-monetary factors are heavily influencing the "Fed premium" in gold prices. The recent legal and political challenges to the Fed’s independence (including the Supreme Court's scrutiny of Governor Lisa Cook's removal and investigations into Chair Powell) have fueled concerns about the Fed’s independence and its potential impact on future interest rates. Investors are using gold as a hedge against a potential "politicization" of the dollar. Any rhetoric in the Jan 28th statement that hints at defensiveness toward the Fed’s autonomy could actually spike gold prices as a vote of no confidence in the USD. Major banks (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan) have already raised 2026 targets to $5,000–$5,400, suggesting that as long as the Fed doesn't pivot back to aggressive hiking, the path of least resistance for gold remains upward. With all that said, will this price rally continue? We will go over different technical analysis tools and indicators, as well as the most recent COT report released on January 16th, 2026, including data up to January 13th, 2026 Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices.Commitments of traders (COT) report zoom_out_map Source: cotbase.com - COT Gold futures net positions - Past performance is not indicative of future results Managed money (Large speculators): Trend followersUnlike previous peaks where speculators were "over-extended," the current net-long level is not yet at a historical sentiment extreme. Although this suggests there is more room to the upside regarding long positions, and they haven't yet reached the "exhaustion" point that usually precedes a major crash, a negative divergence may be in play as price makes higher highs while long positions are plotting lower highs.Swap dealers: Market makers and hedgersIn contrast to the managed money category, swap dealers, who typically take the other side of the market, have already reached their all-time extreme short level, suggesting a change in sentiment may be due.​Small speculators: Growing participationThere is a noticeable uptick in net long positions from small speculators in early 2026. This indicates that "main street" investors are increasingly entering the market, often in the final stage of a significant price surge.Open interest and volumeAlthough open interest remains high, it is showing a potential negative divergence with price action. Similar to OI, non-trending low volume is also seen along with price appreciation as of November 1st, 2025, which theoretically means that volume was not supportive of the price increase since Nov 1stTechnical analysis: Gold daily chart - Bullish momentum testing resistance zoom_out_map Gold daily chart - XAU/USD - Source: Tradingview.com - Past performance is not indicative of future results The daily chart shows a strong, long-term bullish trend that accelerated significantly in 2026. After a period of consolidation in late 2025, the price has broken out to the upside, currently trading near 4,900.00.As of early 2025, the gold price traded within a widening, rising channel, as indicated by the blue lines on the chart above. The "higher highs and higher lows" structure is well-defined, with the upper channel boundary intersecting with monthly R3 at 4913.58, forming a confluence of resistance.As of late October 2025, following a negative divergence with the RSI that preceded a $200 drop, gold prices rose back up, erasing the drop, breaking above its fast EMA9, the monthly PP of $4345.22, and the baseline of multiple higher lows, as marked by the red lines on the chart.A confluence of support lies beneath the price action, represented by the intersection of the EMA9, the breakout level (red line), and the newly formed price gap near $4630.00. The price gap may suggest an island formation; however, that’s yet to be determined.RSI (14) is currently at 78.00, indicating the asset is in overbought territory. A potential negative divergence remains between price and RSI.​Stochastic (14, 1, 3): The Stochastic oscillator is also highly elevated (87.90), confirming strong bullish momentum but suggesting that a short-term “cooling off” period or minor retracement toward the EMA may be imminent. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stock Indexes push higher yet again amid the latest Trump TACONow extending towards the Monday Futures gap, Stocks are back to neutral-bull territory – Key levels still have to be brokenExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 This morning brought a fresh wave of optimism to Wall Street.First, traders received an update from the Trump Administration regarding Greenland. The recent rhetoric had posed significant sentiment hurdles, triggering repricings after a positive start to 2026. The situation shifted yesterday afternoon when Trump posted that a framework for Greenland's strategic use by the US had been reached. While details remain unclear, the tone is calmer, easing fears of a NATO collapse or armed invasion. However, Greenland will likely continue to assert its sovereignty, meaning tensions could flare if the deal does not align with local views.Combined with the latest data, US sentiment is back at highs. Q3 GDP beat expectations (4.4% vs 4.3% expected), arriving alongside slight misses in PCE data. This combination supports a soft-landing scenario, the most favorable outcome for stocks.The ongoing earnings season is also leaving a decent impression. The key Magnificent 7 reports still face the test of extreme expectations, but the path should become clearer ahead of the January 28 FOMC meeting. Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and ASML report after the close on FOMC day, while Apple and Visa follow on Thursday. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 22, 2026 The picture is once again very green all around the Market, with Meta leading to the upside (+4.22%) and Mag 7s sustaining well after their more volatile 2025 year-end.This expresses some repositioning ahead of their earnings next week.Energy Minerals and Producer Manufacturing are among the lagging sectors.Dive into our daily session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 – Watch for pre-weekend volatility as the situation is fully clear yet and Iran remains a factor. Read More:Natural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next?Why silver prices in the US and China have diverged so sharplyA New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateDow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Now easily brushing back above the 49,000 level, the DJIA is testing its all-time highs.The Morning 4H Candle just closed and expresses some form of momentum slowdown at previous highs, confirming more rangebound price action that could be expected all the way to next week's FOMC.Breaking and closing above the 49,715 all-time highs could see follow through as long as a break occurs on strong volume – Momentum has got more bullish but the TACO spike could slow downA pullback here could easily test the 49,150 level which crosses with the 4H 50-period MAAny session close below the 49,000 key level brings back seller strength which could move towards the 4H 200-MA (48,620)Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 49,62849,650 to 49,670 Current ATH ResistanceAll-time Highs 49,71050,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,150 4H 50-period MAChristmas ATH High Timeframe Momentum Pivot – 49,000 Intraday support 48,600 to 48,700November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Mini-SupportPsychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is once again stuck in its higher timeframe Range (24,500 to 25,800) which has been containing its progress since its October drop.The two-session rebound is still very impressive, with the index up 2.50% during that span.Looking further to higher timeframes, consolidations at relative all-time highs are a positive sign as it allows Overbought conditions from the previous year to largely ease – Conditions needed for clean breakouts.Still, bulls will have to manage a daily close above the 25,700 Resistance in order to generate further momentum and potentially push for a new all-time high record.Next week's earnings will have a huge influence on Stock Movement. Keep a close attention to the Fed's communications next week.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession Highs 25,625Intermediate Resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,182Support LevelsMomentum Pivot 25,200 to 25,500 +/- 75 ptssession lows 25,425Minor Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is about 100 points higher compared to our past day analysis, but the index is expressing some technical doubts as it faces a retest of its Monday Futures Gap (6,930).The current dragonfly doji candle indicates decent bull resilience but general balanced action which could easily lead to a retest of the 6,880 to 6,900 Pivot area.For bull/bear indications, traders can spot whether the action remains above the 4H 50-period MA (6,915) – closing below on high volume can prompt a further correction to 6,830-6,850, past day support levels.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsSession highs 6,938Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current ATH Resistance at 7,000Support LevelsPivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850 (Past day support)6,800 Psychological Support6,789 session lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 (Mid-December lows at 6,729)6,400 Major psychological supportDon't forget to stay close to the headlines as the World Economic Forum is still ongoing!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.