Markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike.Kevin Warsh has so far placed greater emphasis on price stability than investors initially expected.De-escalation between the US and Iran could reduce energy prices and inflationary pressures.The euro area could benefit more from lower energy prices because of its dependence on energy imports.A downward reassessment of the Fed rate path represents one of the main medium-term risks for the dollar.Fed expectations remain supportive for the dollar US 10-year Treasury yields, daily data, source: TradingView The US dollar has benefited in recent weeks from relatively high Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may not yet be finished with its fight against inflation. Markets continue to leave room for another US rate hike. However, this pricing could become increasingly difficult to sustain if tensions in the Middle East ease and inflationary pressures begin to moderate. In such an environment, the dollar’s current advantage over the euro could gradually diminish. The dollar’s recent strength largely reflects monetary policy expectations. When Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, there were concerns that he might eventually come under pressure from Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. So far, this scenario has not materialised.Warsh has repeatedly emphasised the importance of restoring price stability. With inflation still elevated, investors therefore continue to see a possibility that the Fed could tighten monetary policy further. This has helped US yields remain relatively high and provided support for the dollar.The July meeting changed the picture The July FOMC meeting introduced the first signs of uncertainty into this narrative. Warsh did not use the meeting to prepare markets explicitly for another rate hike. His reluctance to provide clear forward guidance weakened expectations of imminent tightening, although it did not remove them completely.This approach makes incoming economic data even more important. Inflation, employment and wage growth will increasingly determine how investors assess the next Fed move. Strong data could quickly rebuild expectations of another hike, while softer readings could have the opposite effect and put pressure on the dollar. Market pricing of the future path of US interest rates (Fed Funds Futures), source: Bloomberg Middle East tensions remain an inflation risk Developments in the Middle East are another important part of the monetary policy outlook. Problems surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support energy prices and create additional short-term inflation risks.A lasting agreement between the US and Iran could change this backdrop significantly. A reopening of the Strait and a reduction in geopolitical risk would likely put downward pressure on oil prices. That, in turn, would weaken one of the key arguments for keeping US monetary policy exceptionally restrictive.Lower energy prices would favour the euro area A de-escalation of the conflict could be particularly important for Europe. The euro area remains heavily dependent on imported energy, while the US is in a much stronger position due to its domestic energy production.Lower oil and gas prices would reduce Europe’s import costs, improve the outlook for businesses and households and support economic activity. From this perspective, the euro could benefit more than the dollar from a lasting improvement in the geopolitical situation.However, there is also a monetary policy trade-off. Lower energy prices would reduce inflationary pressure in the euro area and could therefore weaken expectations of further ECB tightening. This could limit some of the positive impact on the single currency.Are markets too hawkish on the Fed? The biggest question is whether current expectations for US interest rates have become too aggressive. Investors are effectively combining expectations of significantly lower inflation over the coming quarters with the possibility of additional Fed tightening. These two assumptions may eventually become difficult to reconcile.If US inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s target and energy prices fall, the case for another rate increase should weaken considerably. Warsh’s relatively constructive assessment of the disinflationary impact of productivity improvements, including those related to artificial intelligence, could reinforce this argument.Could EUR/USD gradually move higher? Over the coming quarters, the key risk for the dollar is therefore a reassessment of the expected Fed policy path. The market could gradually move from pricing additional tightening towards a prolonged pause and eventually renewed rate cuts.Such a shift would reduce the dollar’s interest-rate advantage and could create room for EUR/USD to move higher. The upside for the euro may nevertheless remain gradual, as declining inflation in Europe could simultaneously encourage investors to price a more accommodative ECB policy.Technical outlook for EUR/USD From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently trading at an interesting juncture. Following the strong gains seen in late July, the pair is now undergoing a short-term consolidation between 1.1500 and 1.1560. The exchange rate is also trading just below a descending trendline connecting the highs from late January 2026 with those recorded in April and May. EUR/USD exchange rate, daily data, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways SpaceX’s fast-tracked inclusion into the Nasdaq-100 is expected to trigger around US$4.3 billion of compulsory passive buying, but historical precedents suggest such events can evolve into “sell-the-news” opportunities as early institutional buyers distribute shares to index funds.Past Nasdaq-100 additions such as Palantir Technologies and Strategy experienced medium-term pullbacks of 23% and 15%, respectively, after their index inclusions, highlighting the risk of profit-taking once passive fund demand is absorbed.Despite its dominant AI and Starlink narrative, SpaceX’s valuation remains exceptionally demanding, trading above 115x trailing sales while still posting a net loss, leaving little room for operational disappointments or tighter financial conditions.Technically, bearish momentum is building, with the SpaceX perpetual contract forming a bearish flag pattern and weakening RSI momentum. A break below 152.60 would reinforce the bearish outlook, while only a sustained move above 176.95 would negate the downside scenario.Massive $4.3 billion passive wave arrives via fast-tracked inclusion Following its record-breaking Initial Public Offering (IPO) on 12 June 2026, which raised a historic $75 billion at an issuance price of $135 per share, aerospace and AI giant SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) has been fast-tracked for entry into Wall Street’s tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 index.This impending milestone has triggered intense front-running optimisation by institutional traders. When a mega-cap stock joins the Nasdaq-100, index-tracking investment vehicles, such as the Invesco QQQ Trust, which manages over $300 billion in assets under management (AUM), are legally required to purchase a proportional stake in the equity.Analysts estimate that this rebalancing will force approximately $4.3 billion in aggregate passive buying. To facilitate this unprecedented, fast-tracked addition, major index providers relaxed traditional entry constraints regarding profitability timelines and post-listing seasoning periods. At its current market price of around $160.40, SpaceX’s implied market capitalisation sits near a staggering $2.1 trillion.Historical case studies flash “sell-the-news” risks Fig. 1: Post-Nasdaq 100 inclusion price behaviour of Palantir and Strategy from 24 Dec 2024 to 13 Jan 2025 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. While retail market participants often perceive major index inclusion as an unmitigated bullish catalyst, historical stock market data indicate that such events frequently coincide with medium-term structural peaks.The mechanics behind this phenomenon are driven by speculative positioning: nimble institutional capital aggressively bids up a stock weeks ahead of the official rebalance date, effectively front-running the passive funds. On the day of execution, these speculative longs may use the massive, price-inelastic liquidity provided by the mandatory buyers to dump their positions, triggering a “sell-the-news” correction.Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Upon its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on 23 December 2024, the stock established a prominent medium-term peak before enduring a punishing 23% corrective decline over the subsequent multi-week sequence (see Fig. 1).Strategy (MSTR): Followed a near-identical trajectory, printing a temporary cyclical high right as the official index inclusion took effect, which gave way to a sharp technical pullback of 15% as front-running momentum completely evaporated (see Fig. 1).Stretched hyperscalers’ valuations collide with the AI infrastructure frenzy SpaceX’s public debut occurred at the absolute zenith of the global AI infrastructure trade, a period characterised by extreme valuation multiples and unprecedented demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI compute capacity.Wall Street has aggressively reclassified SpaceX from a pure-play aerospace firm into a vital player in the AI supercycle. US-based Wedbush Securities recently initiated coverage on SPCX with an "Outperform” rating and a $190.00 price target, explicitly categorising the firm as a “major hyperscaler” due to its large-scale AI compute deals and Starlink data distribution capabilities.However, trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio exceeding 115x trailing sales represents an exceptionally overextended fundamental condition. The underlying company remains structurally sensitive to capital expenditure cycles, having reported a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 alongside volatile swing margins.With expectations priced to absolute perfection, any near-term micro-bottleneck or broader macro-liquidity contraction could trigger a rapid downward mean reversion, mirroring the technical vulnerabilities seen in other semiconductor and AI bellwethers.Technical outlook: Bearish momentum is building up below 176.95 Fig. 2: SPCX/USDT medium-term trend as of 7 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The explosive post-IPO price action on SpaceX has entered a potential bearish consolidation phase. After surging from its 135.00 IPO floor to an intraday all-time high of 225.64 on 16 June 2026, the stock has shed 28%, closing at 160.42 on Monday, 6 July 2026, signalling that the initial hyper-bullish impulsive wave has reached exhaustion.We are now taking reference from the price actions of the SpaceX perpetual contract (SPCX/USDT), a crypto derivative listed on the Binance crypto exchange since 21 May 2026, to construct a more meaningful technical analysis outlook on SpaceX, as SPCX/USDT offers more historical data over the cash equity listed on the Nasdaq exchange (see Fig. 2).Since its low of 146.87 printed on 23 June 2026, SPCX/USDT has been oscillating within a “bearish flag” configuration that indicates a pause before a new potential bearish impulsive down move sequence resumes.In addition, the 4-hour RSI momentum has staged a bearish breakdown below its key ascending trendline support and now hovers below the 50 level. These observations suggest near-term bearish momentum has resurfaced.Watch the 176.95 key medium-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 152.60 intermediate support (the lower boundary of the “bearish flag”) opens scope for a new potential bearish leg to retest 146.87/141.90 (23 June 2026 low and Fibonacci extension) before exposing the next medium-term support at 131.76 (Fibonacci extension).On the flip side, a clearance and a daily close above 176.95 would invalidate the bearish scenario, triggering a squeeze up towards the next medium-term resistances at 199.30 and 212.70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The June employment report highlighted a widening divergence between payroll growth and household employment metrics. While the establishment survey pointed to a cooled hiring landscape, wage growth remained steady, and the underemployment rate improved slightly. Metric Consensus forecast Actual Prior month actual Change in non-farm payrolls 113k 57k 129k (revised) Unemployment rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% Average hourly earnings (MoM) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% Average hourly earnings (YoY) 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% Labor force participation rate 61.8% 61.5% 61.8% Analysis of deviations The primary driver behind the headline payroll miss was a steep contraction in the leisure and hospitality sector, which shed 61,000 jobs during the month. Minor losses were also recorded in information (-9,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (-4,000). On the positive side, education and health services led gains with 69,000 additions, followed by professional and business services with 36,000 and construction with 11,000. Manufacturing added a modest 3,000 jobs, matching expectations.While the payroll figure disappointed, the fall in the headline unemployment rate to 4.2% was supported by a drop in the underemployment rate from 8.1% to 7.9%. However, this decline occurred alongside a drop in the labor force participation rate to 61.5%, down from 61.8% previously, suggesting that some workers may have exited the labor force, dampening the labor supply pool.Comparison with alternative labor metrics The downshift in official payrolls contrasts with the ADP private payrolls data released a day earlier, which reported a more robust private sector addition of 98,000 jobs. Within ADP’s metrics, services accounted for 96,000 positions while goods-producing sectors added 2,000. Historically, short-term discrepancies between ADP and BLS prints are common. Still, both reports point to a general deceleration in aggregate labor demand relative to the prior year’s trends.Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS job openings report for May showed total vacancies at 7.594 million, continuing a gradual multi-month consolidation pattern. Leading sectors for openings included education and health services (1.539 million) and professional and business services (1.485 million), aligning with the areas showing relative resilience in the June establishment payroll survey.Learn directly from OANDA experts at live webinars.https://www.oanda.com/us-en/skills-and-insights/webinars/live-market-analysis/Macroeconomic and Federal Reserve implications This mixed report introduces complexity for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy path. The sharp slowdown in headline payroll additions and the substantial negative revisions to prior months imply that restrictive monetary policy is successfully cooling labor demand. Conversely, the reduction in the unemployment rate and steady wage pressures—with average hourly earnings expanding at 3.5% annually—suggest that the labor market is not in freefall.As a result, the data may strengthen the case for the Federal Reserve to consider a more accommodative stance or accelerate discussions around interest rate cuts later this year to preserve economic momentum, provided that core inflation figures continue to align with their long-term objectives.CME Fedwatch tool CME Fedwatch tool - FOMC meeting probabilities Source: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Past performance is not indicative of future results According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are reflecting heavily anchored expectations for the immediate future, with an 82.4% probability that the target interest rate will remain in the 350–375 basis point range at the July 29, 2026, meeting. Looking ahead to the September 16, 202,6 session, market sentiment is closely divided: the probability of rates remaining at 350–375 bps stands at 46.2%, while the likelihood of a shift to the 375–400 bps range is priced slightly less at 46.0%. This near-even split highlights how the mixed signals within today’s data—softer hiring versus tight household metrics—have left traders balancing the prospects of future policy accommodation against structural labor resilience.EUR/USD daily chart technical analysis EUR/USD daily chart - Source: tradingview.com - Past performance is not indicative of future results In the January–February period, a clear inverted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern emerged, featuring a left shoulder, a higher peak forming the head, and a lower peak for the right shoulder. A downward-sloping red trendline defined the neckline. Once the price broke below this neckline and the dotted support line, aligned with the “Gap - War start” annotation, it triggered a significant bearish move down toward the major support floor near 1.1300 in March. The upper resistance (purple line) connects the major multi-month peaks, while the lower support (purple line) connects the major multi-month lows, serving as a massive psychological and technical floor. Because these two lines are diverging—with the top sloping up slightly and the bottom sloping flat to down—the macro structure resembles a large broadening formation, which typically indicates high volatility and uncertainty. Stochastic Oscillator (14, 1, 3): After hitting deeply oversold territory (below 20) in late June, the Stochastic lines have crossed over and are pointing sharply upward (currently at 39.63 / 30.11). This indicates short-term bullish momentum. The RSI is sitting at 43.44, recovering from near-oversold territory. Notably, there is a mild bullish divergence here: while the price action made a lower low in late June than in mid-June, the RSI made a higher low (indicated by the small teal line at the bottom), suggesting that selling pressure was exhausted. Summary OutlookThe EUR/USD is attempting a relief rally off a major multi-month support floor.Bullish Scenario: If the current momentum can push the price past the weekly Pivot ( 1.14704) and break above the descending red resistance line, it could trigger a short squeeze up toward R1 (1.16162).Bearish Scenario: If the pair fails to clear the $1.14700 region, it will likely rotate back down to retest the crucial support zone between $1.1315 and $1.1276. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways USD/JPY's sharp intraday reversal bears the hallmarks of official intervention. The sudden 0.5% decline during the Asian-London session, coupled with reports that Japanese authorities may be shifting toward less predictable intervention tactics, suggests policymakers are attempting to curb speculative yen selling without fundamentally altering the prevailing uptrend.Interest-rate differentials continue to favour a stronger US dollar. The widening 2-year US Treasury-JGB yield spread and expectations for a resilient US labour market remain supportive of USD/JPY. A stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report could reinforce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening and renew upward pressure on the pair.Crowded speculative positioning raises the risk of sharp squeezes. Net short positions in Japanese yen futures remain near two-year highs, increasing the likelihood that targeted intervention or even the threat of intervention could trigger rapid short-covering rallies without necessarily reversing the broader trend.The 160.90 level is the key technical line in the sand. Holding above this support keeps the medium-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY intact, while a decisive break below it would signal that intervention has evolved from a temporary squeeze into a deeper corrective phase. Out of the blue, the Japanese yen recovered sharply by 0.5% against the US dollar on Thursday, 2 July 2029, at 2 pm SG time (the Asian-to-London handover period).The USD/JPY staged a steep intraday decline of 0.5% to trade at 161.70 at the time of writing, back below the prior 161.95 (former major resistance from early July 2024 swing highs and prior BoJ intervention).This type of swift movement smells like FX intervention. So far, there are no official announcements from Japanese authorities, except for a report from Reuters that stated that “Japanese officials are abandoning their habit of telegraphing intervention risks, instead signalling a more targeted campaign to squeeze speculators and raise the cost of betting against the ​battered yen,” according to sources.Could it be a deliberate attempt to smooth speculative activities ahead of NFP? Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spread with USD/JPY as of 2 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 2: Commitment of Traders’ net short positions of JPY futures as of 23 June 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. So far, fundamentals have been supportive of a weaker Japanese yen, in line with softer oil prices, where benchmark crude oil, Brent and WTI have fallen to below $75 per barrel, keeping a lid on the Japanese inflation trend, in turn, reducing the hawkish rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).All these factors allow the monetary policy sensitive 2-year yield spread between the US Treasury Notes and the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to widen further, as the yield premium is now inching higher to 2.79% at this time of writing, making short-term US fixed income more attractive than Japanese ones, in turn, putting upside pressure on the USD/JPY (see Fig. 1).Hence, a red-hot US non-farm payrolls data for June (above consensus of 110k, and 172K in May) later is likely to increase a more hawkish pricing of the US Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy, pushing up the 2-year US Treasury and JGB yield spread higher above 2.79%, in turn, triggering more speculators to take on short positions on the Japanese yen.A swift weakening of the Japanese yen may create some “undesirable fundamental” impact on the Japanese economy, such as softening domestic spending and consumer confidence, offsetting the marginal benefits gained from Japanese automobile exporters.Also, large speculator net short Japanese yen positions in the FX futures market have reached a 2-year high, making a “deliberate intervention” more effective as the exit door is narrowing due to overcrowded short positions on the yen.According to the latest data from the Commitment of Traders report as of 23 June 2026, the net short portion of JPY futures (large speculators less large commercials) has remained steady at -288,485 contracts, more than the 02 June 2026 print of -257,335 (see Fig 2.)Hence, the Japanese authorities may use the Reuters news report to reduce speculative positions but not alter the major uptrend phase of USD/JPY (i.e., the Japanese yen’s major downtrend).Watch the 160.90 support on the USD/JPY Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 2 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The latest bout of selling in USD/JPY (-0.7% intraday) remains above 160.90 key intermediate support (also the 20-day moving average, above it since 15 May 2026).Only a break and an hourly close below 160.90 may trigger an intraday minor decline towards the next intermediate support at 160.30 and even a test on the 159.75/45 key medium-term support zone (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 161.95 reinstate the bullish tone on USD/JPY, targeting a retest of 162.73/97 before an assault on the next intermediate resistance at 163.26. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The S&P 500 ended Q2 2026 on a strong note, but technical momentum is showing signs of fatigue. A two-day rally lifted the index to its best quarterly performance since Q2 2020, although prices are now approaching a key technical resistance zone.Quarter-end institutional positioning and easing geopolitical tensions fuelled the rebound. Window dressing by fund managers and a further reduction in the US-Iran geopolitical risk premium drove renewed buying in AI, semiconductor, and mega-cap technology stocks.A stronger US dollar is emerging as the key macro headwind. The US Dollar Index has broken out to a 13-month high following the June FOMC meeting, with historical precedents showing that sustained dollar strength has coincided with meaningful corrections in US equities.Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and US labour market data. Any hawkish policy signals from Warsh or another resilient non-farm payrolls report could reinforce expectations of higher interest rates, strengthening the dollar further and increasing the risk of a near-term pullback in the S&P 500. The S&P 500 snapped out of a five-day losing streak to finish Q2 2026 with a robust two-day surge, climbing 1.98% over June 29 and June 30 to close at 7,499. This capped off a stellar quarterly gain of 14.9%, the index’s best single-quarter performance since Q2 2020.Institutional window dressing effect and geopolitical relief The late-June reversal was heavily supported by structural “window dressing” as portfolio managers reallocated capital, shedding monthly losers to add exposure to winning mega-cap tech and AI benchmarks before sending out quarterly reports.The final 48 hours of June saw classic mechanical inflows. Institutional mandates required trimming lagging individual names from earlier in the month and aggressively reloading into core AI, semiconductor, and secular tech structural compounders (the PHLX Semiconductor index, SOX, rose 3.9% on Tuesday, 30 June, surpassing the S&P 500 +0.8% and Nasdaq 100 +1.7% by a wide margin).This systematic flow effectively insulated a technology cohort that had been briefly bruised by mid-June data centre margin fears and personnel rotations.In addition, weekend hostilities between the US and Iran eased, reinforcing the June 17 interim ceasefire memorandum of understanding, as both nations’ subsequent adherence to the memorandum and the scheduled diplomatic talks in Doha dramatically lowered the near-term crude oil shock premium.Continuation of the US dollar strength may be the bearish reversal trigger Fig. 1: Weekly MACD of US Dollar Index with US Nasdaq 100 & SPX 500 CFDs as of 1 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Since the conclusion of the 17 June 2026 FOMC meeting, led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the global macro landscape has undergone a significant shift. In sharp contrast to the tentative consolidation seen in the US dollar between April and May 2026, the US Dollar Index has staged a decisive bullish breakout above its long-standing range resistance at 100.54, which had capped gains since May 2025. The greenback has since advanced to a 13-month high of 101.37 at the close of Friday’s US session on 26 June 2026.In terms of intermarket analysis, the weekly MACD trend indicator of the US Dollar Index staged a significant bullish breakout the week of 1 June 2026, moving above the zero line and continued to trend upwards at this time of writing. Two similar bullish breakouts were seen in the weeks of 4 November 2024 and 20 September 2021, which led to significant prior corrective declines of 22%- 17% and 35%- 25%, respectively, on the US Nasdaq 100 CFD and US SPX 500 (see Fig. 1).All eyes and ears will now shift to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s public speech today at the Sintra policy panel of the ECB forum on central banking at 1 pm GMT, and also US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data for June out on Thursday, 2 July at 12.30 pm GMTAny further hint of a hawkish Fed on rate hikes from Warsh is likely to trigger another bout of US dollar strength, which, in turn, may soften the prior bullish tone in the US stock market.Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US SPX 500 CFD (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) from a technical analysis perspective.Potential bull trap below 7,545 key short-term resistance Fig. 2: US SPX 500 CFD minor trend as of 1 Jul 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Minor bearish reversal below 7,545 key short-term pivotal resistance within medium-term range configurationSupports: 7,453 (downside trigger, also the 20-day MA), 7,404 (also the 50-day MA), 7,333 (26/29 Jun 2026 minor lows) (see Fig. 1).Next resistances: 7,600/625 (all-time high area), 7,666/685 (Fibonacci extension cluster)Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on the US SPX 500 CFD The last three sessions of bullish price actions have stalled at the descending trendline resistance in place since the 2 June 2026 all-time high.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bearish breakdown from its ascending support after it hit an overbought reading on Tuesday, 30 June 2026. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The unwinding of the Middle East risk premium continues to pressure energy markets. The US-Iran 60-day implementation roadmap and temporary authorisation of Iranian crude exports have accelerated the liquidation of long oil positions, pushing WTI and Brent crude toward multi-month lows despite ongoing diplomatic uncertainty.AI infrastructure spending remains a key pillar of market leadership. The strategic partnership between Micron and Anthropic reinforced the view that semiconductor and memory demand remains structurally strong, helping the SOX Index reach fresh record highs even as broader equity markets struggled for direction.A stronger US dollar and rising short-term Treasury yields are becoming the dominant macro headwind. The rise in the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level since early 2025, coupled with persistent dollar strength, has weighed on Asia-Pacific equities and kept pressure on regional currencies, particularly the Japanese yen.Chart of the day: The S&P 500 is showing near-term weakness, trading below the key short-term resistance at 7,557 and back below the 20-day moving average.Chart of the day - S&P 500 near-term weakness prevails below 20-day MA Fig. 1: US S&P 500 CFD minor trend as of 23 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Since the ex-post FOMC sell-off last Wednesday, 17 June 2026, the price action of the US S&P 500 CFD (a proxy for the S&P 500 E-mini futures) has remained lethargic, having re-entered a range below its 20-day moving average (see Fig. 1).In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has broken below its ascending support, which suggests a revival of short-term bearish momentum.Watch the 7,557 key short-term pivotal resistance to maintain a near-term bearish bias, and a break below 7,436 exposes the next intermediate support at 7,374 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.However, a clearance with an hourly close above 7,557 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest 7,600 and even the current all-time high of 7,625.Top macro headlines US-Iran 60-Day peace roadmap triggers aggressive crude oil sell-off: Front-month WTI and Brent crude futures plunged toward $74.08 and $78.15 per barrel, while still trading above their respective 200-day moving averages as details of the diplomatic breakthrough emerged from Switzerland. Mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, the US and Iran have established an explicit 60-day implementation roadmap. The US Treasury’s subsequent temporary authorisation for the sale and transport of Iranian petroleum has alleviated immediate fears of a structural blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, thereby reducing geopolitical risk premiums.AI infrastructure land grab intensifies with Micron-Anthropic alliance: Several US semiconductor shares caught a strong bid following the announcement of a multi-billion-dollar strategic hardware and capital agreement between Micron Technology and AI pioneer Anthropic. Micron will guarantee priority supply of next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to anchor Anthropic’s accelerating data centre expansions, while concurrently participating in a major Series H funding round, reinforcing intense institutional demand for physical-layer AI infrastructure.SpaceX shares retreat following blockbuster IPO mania and notes offering: One week after completing the largest IPO in history, shares of Elon Musk’s newly listed Space Exploration Technologies Corp. slid 3.9% to close at $154.60, breaking below its debut closing level of $160.95. The stock recorded its third consecutive daily loss as the rockets-to-AI giant announced plans for a new senior unsecured notes offering to support capital expenditures, following its final $85.7 billion IPO.Sovereign bond yields advance ahead of massive short-duration supply: Fixed income markets faced renewed selling pressure as global benchmark yields ticked higher. The US 2-year note auction forced short-duration yields higher as primary dealers braced for heavy supply absorption. The 2-year US Treasury yield jumped by 5 bps to close Monday’s session at 4.23%, its highest level since mid-February 2025.Key macro themes Geopolitical de-escalation and energy supply shocks’ pricing: The global commodity market is undergoing a swift adjustment as the US-Iran 60-day roadmap shifts from theoretical diplomacy to actual implementation. By explicitly authorising the near-term delivery and sale of Iranian crude, the US Treasury has effectively eliminated the risk of an extended shipping blockade in the Persian Gulf. This rapid normalisation of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is prompting systematic macro funds to liquidate long energy hedges, overriding localised supply constraints and fundamentally lowering the baseline for global input cost inflation.The secular insulation of AI capital expenditure: Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty and elevated global borrowing costs, the physical layer of the artificial intelligence ecosystem remains highly insulated from cyclical contraction. The strategic alliance between Micron and Anthropic underscores an ongoing “land grab” for specialised silicon and high-bandwidth memory. Because tier-one AI developers are prioritising infrastructure security over near-term capital conservation, corporate expenditure in the semiconductor supply chain is acting as a primary structural backstop for equity markets, decoupling tech benchmarks from underlying fixed-income volatility.Post-IPO valuation rebalancing of trillion-dollar mega-caps: The post-listing turbulence in SpaceX highlights the complex fundamental math facing newly public mega-caps. While retail and options mania propelled the combined rocket-and-AI entity past a $2.2 trillion valuation last week, its high capital expenditure profile, exceeding fiscal 2025 revenue, and the announcement of a new debt offering have brought fundamental discipline back into focus. At 118 times fiscal 2025 sales, the market’s willingness to look past immediate net losses to fund Starlink and Starship infrastructure serves as a major indicator of long-duration growth risk appetite across global asset classes.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The broader equity landscape closed flat to mixed, but semiconductor stocks significantly outperformed, with the SOX rallying 2% to a new all-time high. Micron Technology climbed 7% on news of its strategic deal with Anthropic, providing strong upward momentum that lifted hardware and semiconductor names. Conversely, SpaceX (SPCX) slipped 3.94% to $154.60 as profit-taking, and its upcoming debt offering weighed on early momentum.FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) inched higher by 0.2% to close Monday’s session at 110.00 after last week’s bullish breakout from its prior major range resistance of 100.54. The Swiss franc (CHF) underperformed notably across major currency pairs, extending its losses against the greenback to a 7-month low of 0.8097, pressured by the Swiss National Bank’s sustained dovish structural policy stance relative to peers. Meanwhile, the ongoing weakness in the Japanese yen tested a key intervention level of 161.95 per US dollar on Monday. USD/JPY printed an intraday high of 161.93 before trading slightly lower to close at 161.60 in the US session.Fixed income: Sovereign bonds faced moderate selling pressure. Euro area yields edged higher, led by Spanish debt following an upgraded regional inflation forecast. US Treasury curves shifted upward as market participants braced for heavy short-duration supply absorption later in the week. Commodities: Front-month international energy contracts suffered sharp liquidations. Brent crude plunged 2.8% to close at $78.15/bbll as the US Treasury’s 60-day waiver on Iranian petroleum exports neutralised the structural war premium, while spot gold remained soft to end Monday’s US session at $4,192/oz, holding below its 20-day moving average at $4,320/oz on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields. Asia Pacific impact APAC technology ecosystems capture hardware tailwinds but US dollar strength capped gains: The multi-billion-dollar infrastructure commitments across the US technology complex triggered immediate positive spillover effects for Asian semiconductor hubs. But a firmer US dollar has triggered a bout of selling pressure in most Asia-Pacific bourses at the start of today’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (-0.9%), South Korea’s KOSPI (-4.1%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (-0.3%), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-0.6%), China’s CSI 300 (-1%), with the exception of Australia’s ASX 200 (unchanged), and Singapore’s STI (+0.3%).Regional importers benefit from Persian Gulf supply normalisation: The sudden de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is providing a meaningful structural cushion for energy-dependent Asian economies. Major regional refiners, particularly across China and India, are projecting lower near-term crude import bills, offering localised support to current account balances.Top 4 events to watch today (Next 24 Hours) Eurozone S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 4:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUK S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 4:30 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI Flash (Jun) - 9:45 pm SGT Impact: USD, US stock indicesSpaceX Starfall Demo Mission Liftoff Impact: SPCX Shares, Aerospace & Defence ETFs, Nasdaq 100 Index Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US-Iran peace negotiations remain fragile despite progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While crude oil continues to flow through the waterway and a 60-day roadmap remains intact, fresh geopolitical threats and proxy-conflict risks highlight that energy markets are likely to remain highly sensitive to headline-driven volatility.The US dollar remains the dominant macro trade. Supported by the Fed's higher-for-longer stance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen while the Japanese yen trades dangerously close to intervention territory and other Asian currencies remain under pressure.Markets are entering a period of divergence across regions and asset classes. Japanese and South Korean equities continue to outperform, while Hong Kong equities struggle amid growth concerns in China. At the same time, investors are increasingly balancing geopolitical developments against rising protectionism, elevated bond yields, and slowing global growth expectations.Chart of the day: GBP/USD may face further weakness below 1.3262/3280 key short-term resistance as the pair probes the 1.3160 key support amid UK Prime Minister Starmer’s potential imminent resignation.Chart of the day - GBP/USD is looking vulnerable for a major bearish breakdown Fig. 1: GBP/USD minor trend as of 22 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The recent plunge in GBP/USD managed to survive after a retest of the long-term secular ascending channel support from the 26 September 2022 low on last Friday, 19 June 2026 (printing an intraday low of 1.3163) (see Fig. 1).However, short-term bullish momentum is absent, as suggested by the hourly RSI, which remains capped below a key descending trendline at 50.Watch the 1.3262/3280 key short-term pivotal resistance for a bearish bias outlook to expose the next intermediate supports at 1.3190 and 1.3160.However, a clearance and an hourly close above 1.3280 would invalidate the bearish bias, opening the door to a potential squeeze up towards the medium-term resistance at 1.3325.Top macro headlines Fresh threats stoke tensions at Switzerland peace talks: High-level diplomatic negotiations in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock got off to a rocky start over the weekend. A fresh warning of retaliatory military strikes should regional proxies advance (hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel) disrupted the early sessions, briefly prompting Iranian media to report a temporary halt in negotiations before sources confirmed meetings continued under a highly volatile 60-day de-escalation window between the US and Iran.Strait of Hormuz reopening holds despite rhetoric: Despite Iranian localised claims of operational blockades over the weekend, real-time maritime tracking verified that millions of barrels of crude oil continued to move systematically through the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance syndicates and shipping fleets are maintaining transits while keeping a sharp eye on structural security guarantees.S&P 500 futures dipped amid uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks: Coming off the Friday Juneteenth cash market close, the E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed by 0.4% and 0.5% in today’s Asia opening session as media outlets reported that US-Iran talks on a peace deal to settle the issue of Tehrans nuclear program and permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz are still continuing into Monday. The talks had a confusing start on Sunday as Iranian media reported that Iran halted talks over US President Trump’s latest threat of a Hezbollah offensive towards Israel.G7 summit in Evian wraps up amid looming trade friction: The three-day G7 economic summit concluded in France with a spotlight on structural trade policies. Significant friction emerged over prospective 100% tariffs targeting specific digital and consumer luxury sectors, alongside a unified initiative to address systemic industrial imbalances and diversify clean-tech supply chains outside primary APAC manufacturing corridors.Political headwinds in the UK: Allies of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure imminently, paving the way for party rival, Andy Burnham, to replace him. A statement from Starmer ceding power could come as soon as Monday, and The Guardian newspaper reported on Sunday evening that Starmer would set out his intentions in a statement outside Downing Street on Monday morning. The British pound extends its losses by 0.2% against the US dollar in today’s Asian opening session to trade at 1.3205 after last week’s steep loss of 1.3% against the greenback.Key macro themes The geopolitical premium recalibration in energy complexes: The fragile reality of the Bürgenstock peace framework underscores that removing the Middle Eastern war premium will not occur in a straight line. Front-month energy futures spent the weekend instantly reacting to the delicate diplomatic landscape, proving that headline risk remains the dominant driver of intraday crude volatility. While physical barrels are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz normally, the constant threat of localised proxy escalation continues to hold a structural floor underneath back-month global supply curves.Broad G7 protectionism and global supply chain friction: The rhetoric following the G7 summit confirms that Western economies are adopting more defensive economic postures. The looming deployment of targeted 100% tariffs indicates that cross-border trade friction is expanding beyond raw automotive electric vehicles into upstream supply networks. For global macro allocators, this structural shift toward "friend-shoring" means structural input costs are likely to remain sticky, introducing secondary complications for central banks attempting to coordinate an easing cycle.Institutional capital rotations in the crypto winter core: The disconnect between resilient benchmark equity indices and the collapse of valuations in digital assets highlights an ongoing liquidity drain in highly speculative alternative asset classes. Record-breaking outflows from spot digital vehicles indicate that institutional capital is prioritising sovereign nominal yields and traditional large-cap corporate cash flows over crypto-risk premiums. As a result, structural regulatory milestones like MiCA adoption are acting as survival baselines rather than immediate bullish catalysts.Global markets impact Equities: S&P 500 E-mini futures is trading down by 0.25% in today’s Asian session, paring its earlier intraday loss of 0.6%, maintaining a 9.6% year-to-date advance. European cash bourses experienced muted trade at the close of the week, with the DAX digesting broader macro stagnation projections of 0.8% for the Eurozone block heading into the summer quarter.Fixed Income: Sovereign yields globally adjusted to sticky energy pricing baselines. With consumer price indexes expected to show upward pressure due to past distribution disruptions, the 2-year US Treasury yield gapped up by 32 bps on Monday’s Asian session to trade at 4.21%, a 16-month high. FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its structural uptrend, drawing safety flows amid volatile Swiss headlines surrounding the US-Iran talks, and rose marginally by 0.05% to 100.80 in today’s Asian session. The euro remained flat against the greenback amid stagnant growth figures from the Eurozone forums, while the Japanese yen weakened by 0.1% to trade at 161.49 per US dollar, near a 2-year low as speculators probe the intervention level of 161.95. Commodities: Intraday volatile movement for WTI and Brent crude over conflicting headlines of US-Iran peace deal talk in Switzerland. WTI and Brent crude are now trading down by almost 1% at $76.85-$79.44/bbl, erasing earlier intraday gains of 1.9% and 2.4% but still holding above their respective key 200-day moving averages after news that mediators Qatar and Pakistan have announced a formal 60-day roadmap toward a final US-Iran peace deal. Asia Pacific impact Regional currencies under pressure: Asian currencies began the week on the defensive, heavily weighed down by the renewed weekend surge in dollar-denominated energy input costs. Exporters across Taiwan and South Korea are monitoring local currency baselines as wide interest rate differentials continue to favour the greenback. The USD/KRW rose by 0.4% in today’s Asian session to trade at 1,535, holding firmly above the 20-day moving average at 1,520. Meanwhile, mixed performances are seen in the Asia Pacific bourses: Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+1.8%), South Korea’s KOSPI (+1.9%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.16%), Australia’s ASX 200 (unchanged), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-1.9%), and Singapore’s STI (-0.2%)Supply chain rediversification forces tactical multiples compression: Decisions at the G7 summit targeting clean-tech and industrial manufacturing capacity inside Asia are forcing an immediate re-evaluation of long-term corporate guidance. Regional tech and industrial equities are preparing for narrower valuation margins as Western supply policies favour regional redundancy over cost optimisation.Top 4 events to watch today Canada Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.2% y/y, Apr: 2.1%) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crossesECB Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: -18%, May: -19) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXPotential announcement of UK Prime Minister Starmer’s resignation Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FTSE 100US-Iran peace talks roadmap discussions Impact: All asset classes. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Markets embraced a strong risk-on rally after the US and Iran agreed on a framework to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sharply reducing geopolitical and energy-related inflation risks.Technology stocks reclaimed market leadership, with the Nasdaq 100 surging 3% as investors rotated back into mega-cap growth names, supported by lower oil prices, Nvidia’s planned US$20 billion bond offering, and continued enthusiasm around AI infrastructure spending.Attention now shifts to central bank policy, particularly the inaugural FOMC meeting under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, as markets assess whether lower energy prices are sufficient to temper expectations for a potential Fed rate hike later this year.Chart of the day: USD/JPY minor uptrend remains intact above 159.75 key support as it probes the 160.65 intervention risk level.Chart of the day - USD/JPY’s minor uptrend remains intact Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 16 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of USD/JPY is holding at its 20-day moving average after its prior two retests on it on 12 June and 15 June, indicating a “cautious” minor bullish impulsive up move sequence as USD/JPY continues to probe its recent intervention level of 160.65 (see Fig. 1).Watch the 159.75 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the near-term bullish tone on USD/JPY towards the key intermediate resistance at 160.65, and above it, the 161.14/120 resistance is next to watch.However, a break and an hourly close below 159.75 invalidates the bullish tone, opening the door to a minor drop towards the next intermediate supports at 159.45 and 159.10/158.80 (also the 50-day moving average).Top macro headlines The US and Iran agreed to a framework to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz: Global supply chains and financial markets captured an extraordinary sigh of relief on Monday. Both sides had confirmed the establishment of a 60-day structural framework to completely halt conflict operations, fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and negotiate over Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme during the 60-day window. Formal signing of the agreement is expected on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.Wall Street rallies and the Nasdaq 100 jumps 3% as the geopolitical premium dissipates: Risk appetite returned to the global equity landscape with extreme force. Driven by the breakthrough in the Persian Gulf, the S&P 500 surged nearly 2% to approach its best single-session performance since April, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 jumped a massive 3.0% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketed to a brand-new historic all-time high.Crude oil collapses below $85 as energy inflation fears evaporate: Global energy benchmarks capitulated as the threat of an extended military blockade dissolved. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude plunged steeply, with US crude settling at $81.17/bbl. The swift deflation of input energy costs has immediately recalculated near-term upstream inflation targets for global manufacturing sectors.NVIDIA set to raise $20 Billion in landmark corporate bond debut: Highlighting the massive, ongoing capital demands of global artificial intelligence infrastructure projects, Reuters reported that chip giant Nvidia is coming to the U.S. debt market to raise $20 billion. The offering, consisting of seven tranches maturing in 2056, represents the firm’s first major corporate bond sale in five years, arranged by Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.Key macro themes Structural deflation of the Persian Gulf shock: The core structural mechanism steering multi-asset allocations on Monday was the aggressive extraction of the geopolitical stagflation premium. The formal signature of the US-Iran memorandum immediately altered intermediate inflation expectations by removing the immediate threat of a prolonged blockage of global trade choke points. As energy prices retreated beneath critical psychological supports, macro traders dramatically unwound bets on defensive commodities and scaled back expectations for emergency tightening metrics from developed-market central banks.The transition to the Warsh Fed era and Wednesday’s Dot Plot: Despite the massive relief rally catalysed by plunging oil prices, market participants are keeping focus pinned on Wednesday’s monumental FOMC meeting, marking newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s inaugural interest rate decision. Fed funds futures traders are still expecting around a 70% chance of a 25 bps rate hike to come in December, despite the cooling energy complex, while market participants widely expect the committee to keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, 17 June. The market will look to see whether Chair Warsh removes the historical easing bias from the median dot plot, particularly given that headline metrics like May CPI reached a three-year high of 4.2%.Intraday breadth and the Tech leadership resurgence: Monday’s price action represented a tactical interruption to the “Great Rotation” of 2026. While recent weeks had seen institutional funds steadily exit overextended large-cap growth names to deploy into small-cap value and industrial cyclicals, the sheer velocity of the geopolitical relief bounce immediately drew capital right back into high-beta technology blocks. Powered by stabilised energy inputs and massive primary issuances such as NVIDIA’s $20 billion bond placement and SpaceX’s robust post-IPO secondary performance, mega-cap growth recaptured near-term liquidity dominance.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 climbed nearly 2.0% in its best single-session performance since April. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 led global benchmarks with a vertical 3.0% surge, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average scaled new historic highs. In contrast, energy producers lagged significantly (-3.6% for the S&P Energy sector).Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds caught a wave of structural re-buying as hawkish rate-hike fears subsided alongside energy metrics. The policy-sensitive US two-year Treasury yield dropped by 2 bps to settle at 4.07% on Monday, 15 June. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield and the UK 10-year Gilt yield edged lower by 3 bps and 1 bps, reflecting broader macro decompression.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) traded on a softer tone but held its 20-day moving average, acting as a key intermediate support at 99.50. The British pound underperformed, trading almost unchanged at 1.3412 against the US dollar; earlier intraday gains were wiped out amid political risk in the UK (uncertainty surrounding PM Starmer’s fate).The Japanese yen remained weak at 160.20 per US dollar as the BoJ hiked its policy rate by 25 bps, as expected, to 1%, a 31-year high, and offered a dovish element, saying it will pause its JGB taper from April 2027.Commodities: WTI and Brent crude oil tumbled and broke below key medium-term supports of $85.50/bbl and $86.25/bbl. Lower energy prices reduced the stagflation risk narrative, allowing precious metals to extend their corrective rebound into a third consecutive session. Gold rallied 2.1% to close at $4,308/oz on Monday, 15 June, below its 20-day moving average ($4,405/oz).Asia Pacific impact APAC tech and export hubs join global resurgence: Regional stock benchmarks across Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan experienced pronounced institutional capital inflows on Tuesday morning. Local export-oriented entities captured intense upside momentum, responding directly to the 3.0% vertical surge across the New York mega-cap technology space. Nikkei 225 (+0.6%), KOSPI (+2.1%), and TAIEX (+0.7%).China and Hong Kong underperform due to weak domestic consumption: China’s retail sales for May plummeted into negative territory (-0.6% y/y), the first time since December 2022, indicating very weak consumer sentiment and spending, as the Labour Day holiday in early May failed to offset the weakness. China A50 (-0.5%), and the Hang Seng Index (-1.3%).Regional Currencies Bounce from Low Floors: The South Korean Won and the Indonesian Rupiah showed clear signs of stabilisation. The rapid retreat in the global dollar index and the sharp deflation of crude oil import prices have materially alleviated structural balance-of-payments pressures across non-OPEC emerging economies.BOJ JGB Program under scrutiny: Japanese fixed-income markets traded calmly after the BoJ’s latest monetary policy decision to pause its JGB tapering programme from April 2027. The 10-year JGB yield continues to stabilise at 2.64% after spiking to a 30–year high of 2.75% in May 2026.Top 3 events to watch today RBA Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference - 12.30 pm & 1.30 pm SGT Impact: AUD/USD, AUD crosses, ASX 200Germany Zew Economic Sentiment (Jun) - 5:00 pm SGT (consensus: -6, May; -10.2) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Housing Starts (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 1.43M, Apr: 1.465M) Impact: USD, US stock indices Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways A surprise US-Iran interim agreement has triggered a powerful risk-on rally, with Nasdaq 100 futures surging 3% and S&P 500 futures gaining 2% as traders aggressively unwind geopolitical risk premiums tied to the Strait of Hormuz disruption.Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, and Gold have all posted bullish gap-ups, but their advances remain vulnerable to reversal if key support levels fail, particularly given the absence of a signed agreement and published deal details.Several hidden risks remain unresolved, including sanctions relief terms, Iran’s proposed transit fees for Hormuz shipping, and the possibility of unilateral Israeli military actions that could rapidly derail the current optimism and trigger renewed market volatility. A remarkable turn of events, the announcement of an interim agreement between the US and Iran in today’s early Asia session (Monday, 15 June) to end hostilities and reopen the vital energy chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, triggered a massive spark of risk-on behaviour in global markets.US President Trump has already posted “teasers” on his social media since last Friday, 12 June, despite Iran not confirming that an imminent deal will be signed on Sunday. Interestingly, this interim deal materialised after Trump backed down on his “harsh threat” to attack Iran on the last Thursday, giving rise to the “Trump always chickens out-TACO” trade narrative.The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 staged a tremendous gap up today, rallying by 2% and 3%, respectively, and almost erased 90% of the losses inflicted by the prior 2-week minor corrective decline from their respective all-time highs printed at the start of June 2026 to the 11 June 2026 low.Let’s look at the intraday technical charts of several key instruments that benefit from this raging near-term bullish sentiment before we tackle the “hidden risks”.Nasdaq 100 – Gap up above 20-day moving average Fig. 1: US Nasdaq CFD minor trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bullish gap up in today’s opening session and reintegrated back above the 20-day moving average, which suggests the emergence of a minor bullish trend from the 10 June 2026 low (see Fig. 1).Watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average) for a further potential push up towards 30,530 and the current all-time high area of 30,728/795. A clearance above 30,795 points to the next intermediate resistance at 31,125 (Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 29,700 invalidates the bullish tone, and a bull trap is likely to materialise, leading to a drop back towards 29,000 and even 28,280 (also the 50-day moving average).Dow Jones (DJIA) – Oscillating within a minor ascending channel Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD minor trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures) has traded back above the 20-day moving average since last Friday, 12 June.Today’s Asia opening session, bullish gap-up, has reinforced an ongoing minor bullish trend launched from the recent 11 June 2026 low.Watch the 51,390/235 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the current all-time high of 51,778 targets the next intermediate resistances at 52,044, followed by 52,357/410 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 2).However, a breakdown with an hourly close below 51,235 negates the bullish tone for a drop to retest the next intermediate support at 50,820 (also close to the 20-day moving average).AUD/USD – Corrective rebound towards 20-day and 50-day moving averages Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The risk-on proxy, the Aussie dollar, has benefited from the intraday recovery in global stock markets today.The AUD/USD has been oscillating within a potential medium-term downtrend since the 13 May 2026 high, as price action continues to trade below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.However, today’s intraday bullish price action and the bullish momentum conditions seen on the hourly RSI (a series of higher lows after a bullish divergence condition on last Wednesday, 10 June) have kick-started a potential minor corrective rebound sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Watch the 0.7055 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push-up towards the next intermediate resistances at 0.7100 and 0.7120/7140 (also the 61.8%/76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 29 May 2026 high to 11 June 2026 low).On the flip side, a break and an hourly close below 0.7055 invalidates the corrective rebound sequence and puts the onus back on the bears to retest 0.7030 and 0.6980.Gold (XAU/USD) – Extension of minor corrective rebound to retest 200-day MAGold (XAU/USD) – Extension of minor corrective rebound to retest 200-day MA Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 15 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The medium-term downtrend in Gold (XAU/USD) has been in place since the all-time high on 29 January 2026 and remains intact.Price actions continue to trade below the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The current bullish move is likely to be an extension of the minor correction rebound from the recent 11 June 2026 low at 4,024 (see Fig. 4).Watch the 4,243/220 short-term pivotal support (today’s Asia opening session gap up) to maintain the corrective rebound sequence to seek out the next intermediate resistance at 4,373/394 before 4,432/466 (also the key 200-day moving average).On the other hand, a breakdown and an hourly close below 4,220 invalidate the minor corrective rebound sequence, turning the focus back to the bears for a drop to retest 4,171 and 4,107 in the first step.Now, here are the hidden risks that can derail the current bout of risk-on behaviour.What we do not know (the opaque details and hidden risks) No released text: The single biggest warning flag is that no official text has been released. Iran maintains that nothing will be published until the ink dries on Friday, 19 June, which is supposed to be the official signing of the interim peace-deal agreement in Switzerland.The Toll dispute: There is a blatant public mismatch in rhetoric. Trump forcefully stated on social media and to The New York Times that the Strait of Hormuz will be a “toll-free" opening. Simultaneously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and state media have indicated that, while they support the opening, Iran still intends to charge service and transit fees to vessels.Sanctions specifics: We don’t know the exact scope of the sanctions’ relief. Is the US allowing unrestricted crude flows, or is it a tightly capped waiver system subject to good behaviour during the 60-day nuclear talks?The Israel wildcard: Hours before the peace-deal announcement, Israel launched highly disruptive airstrikes on Beirut. Far-right members of Isreal PM Netanyahu’s cabinet have already openly slammed the US-Iran deal. Because Israel is not a signatory to this MOU, it retains total operational freedom. A unilateral Israeli strike on Iranian domestic assets or a refusal to halt the Lebanon campaign would instantly trigger a collapse of the permanent ceasefire. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global stock markets staged a powerful relief rally after President Trump signalled that a comprehensive peace agreement between the US and Iran could be reached soon, triggering a sharp 6% decline in crude oil prices and easing stagflation concerns.Technology and AI-related stocks rebounded strongly, with semiconductor shares surging nearly 8% as investors regained confidence in the AI infrastructure investment cycle and concerns over liquidity drains from major IPOs eased.Bond yields and the US dollar weakened as traders scaled back expectations for energy-driven Federal Reserve rate hikes, providing support for equities, precious metals, and risk-sensitive assets across global markets.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100’s rebound stalled right below its 20-day moving average, with key short-term resistance at 29,700.Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100 squeezed up, halted at 20-day MA Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 12 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Thursday, 11 June, US mid-session intraday rally (induced by US President Trump’s optimistic remarks on an imminent US-Iran peace deal) in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has paused right below the 20-day moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from the 3 June 2026 all-time high to 10 June 2026 low.The prior 20-day moving average retest on Tuesday, 9 June, led to a 5.4% intraday drop in the US Nasdaq 100 CFD.Hence, watch the 29,700 key short-term pivotal resistance; a break below 29,000 near-term support is likely to indicate yesterday’s recovery may be a “bull trap,” opening scope for further potential weakness towards the intermediate-range support of 28,280.However, a clearance with an hourly close above 29,700 invalidates the bearish tone and opens the door to a further squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 30,075 and 30,530.Top macro headlines Trump signals imminent US-Iran peace breakthrough, crude oil plunges 6%: Global risk assets experienced a massive relief rally after U.S. President Donald Trump pulled back threatened military strikes and signalled that a negotiated settlement to end the war is near. Trump cited “discussions brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership,” stating a signing ceremony could take place in Europe as soon as this weekend. WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to a 2-month low, settling at $86.43/bbl, sharply deflating recent geopolitical inflation premiums.Wall Street recovers as S&P 500 surges 1.8%: Major U.S. equity indexes halted a bruising two-day slide to stage a violent upward reversal. The S&P 500 bounded 1.8% higher as recession and energy-driven inflation anxieties eased on the heels of the Middle East diplomatic breakthrough, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rocketed up 3.3%.AI infrastructure and chip stocks stage 8% monster bounce: The beaten-down semiconductor sector led the broader market resurgence. A closely watched gauge of global chipmakers (SOX) jumped nearly 8% as momentum and dip-buying institutional capital flooded back into AI-concentric winners.SpaceX generates $250 billion in demand for historic $75 Billion Listing: Highlighting robust private-market liquidity, Elon Musk’s SpaceX successfully closed its historic $75 billion capital raise at a fixed price of $135 per share. The listing, which tracked as the largest-ever corporate market entry, drew over $250 billion in institutional demand and more than $100 billion in orders from retail investors, suggesting the IPO is nearly four times oversubscribed and relieving fears of an immediate liquidity squeeze in secondary public equities.The US is crowned the world’s Top oil exporter as shifting energy order sinks OPEC power: Data released on Thursday confirmed that the United States has officially overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the world’s largest oil exporter. Spurred by structural production growth and geopolitical realignments since the war’s onset in February 2026, U.S. crude exports surged to 10.5 million barrels per day, significantly weakening OPEC’s historical pricing grip.Key macro themes De-escalation and the dismantling of the stagflation Premium: The overarching narrative shifting multi-asset portfolios was the swift unwinding of the geopolitical stagflation trade. The sudden pivot toward a comprehensive, high-level diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran completely re-baselined global energy risk expectations. With crude oil giving up its premium and the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz poised to remain open, market participants immediately scaled back expectations for a hawkish, energy-driven Federal Reserve interest rate hike in October, prompting a massive repricing across sovereign curves.Re-mooring of the mega-Cap AI growth thesis: The technical and fundamental damage sustained by semiconductor and AI infrastructure giants earlier in the week was aggressively repaired. Fears that massive, impending private listings (such as SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI) would permanently cannibalise secondary-market liquidity were alleviated as the SpaceX offering drew record-breaking oversubscriptions without causing an enduring drag on public-market tech stocks. The nearly 8% surge in chipmakers reflects institutional confirmation that corporate AI capital deployment remains fully supported by underlying liquidity in the capital markets.Realignment of global energy hegemony: The formal confirmation of the United States as the world’s dominant oil exporter marks a permanent structural shift in global trade dynamics. Driven by private-sector profit optimisation rather than state-mandated targets, the American shale and crude export complex has successfully absorbed disruptions to Middle Eastern and Russian supply. This structural dominance provides Washington with unparalleled economic leverage and diminishes the long-term effectiveness of traditional energy-weapon embargos.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 rose 1.8% to lead global equity boards out of a two-day correction. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed, with benchmark chip components rising nearly 8%. European bourses similarly caught a strong cross-Atlantic bid, with pan-region benchmarks erasing early industrial drags to close firmly in positive territory.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds staged a massive rally as inflation anxieties plunged alongside the sell-off in crude oil. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond dropped 10 basis points to 4.46%, but remains above the 50-day moving average at 4.40%.FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.4% as safe-haven bids for the greenback dissipated. The euro erased earlier ex-post ECB losses, bouncing by 0.4% to settle at 1.1579, while the British Pound also added 0.4% to finish at $1.3416. The Japanese Yen gained 0.4% to 159.97 per dollar amid broader macro realignment.Commodities: WTI crude oil tumbled 6% to settle at $86.43/bbl. Conversely, spot gold staged a minor rebound, surging 3.4% to $4,211/oz as a slide in sovereign bond yields enhanced the appeal of non-yielding safe havens, but still remained below its 20-day moving average at $4,425/oz. Asia Pacific impact Markets poised for aggressive opening rebound: While local Asian stock indexes closed lower on Thursday (MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.9%, and South Korea’s KOSPI dropped 3%) due to lagging responses to Wednesday’s late-day inflation data and initial war spikes, the subsequent overnight peace breakthrough in New York has left regional stock futures poised for a massive opening gap higher on Friday morning. So far, the intraday bullish tone is prevailing on Friday, Nikkei 225 (+3.4%), KOSPI (+8%), Hang Seng Index (+2%), China A50 (+1.2%), CSI 300 (+1.5%), ASX 200 (+1.9%), and STI (+0.4%). But fortunes may be reversed on Monday as we head into the non-trading weekend period for public markets with the “fluid” US-Iran situation at the forefront.Asian currency pressure alleviates: Local currency defence units received significant breathing room as the U.S. dollar index softened. The Indonesian Rupiah extended its gains by 0.4% to trade at 17,900 per US dollar, recovered by 1.5% from its all-time low of 18,1800 against the greenback on Monday. However, the South Korean Won weakened slightly by 0.3% to trade at 1,520.60 per US dollar.Top 3 events to watch today SpaceX public listing Impact: US stock indicesUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim (Jun) - 10:00 pm SGT (consensus: 46, May: 44.8) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal news flow Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Stagflation fears returned sharply as President Trump’s threat of hard strikes on Iran pushed WTI crude back above US$90, while hot US CPI data reinforced expectations of a higher-for-longer Federal Reserve policy stance.Technology and AI-linked equities remain under heavy pressure as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off, weighed down by stretched valuations, semiconductor weakness, and concerns that mega tech IPOs may drain liquidity from public markets.Asia Pacific markets opened weaker amid global risk-off sentiment, with tech-heavy indices such as South Korea’s KOSPI and Taiwan’s TAIEX leading losses, while regional currencies remained under stress near multi-year lows.Chart of the day: Dow Jones (DJIA) rotation play evaporated; potential transition to a medium-term downtrend phase, with key short-term resistance at 50,390/540.Chart of the day - Dow Jones (DJIA)’s in transit towards a medium-term downtrend Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 minor trend as of 11 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The earlier outperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday, 9 June, which eked out a 0.2% gain amid steep losses in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, has evaporated.The last price action of the US Wall Street 30 CFD (a proxy for the DJIA E-mini futures) plummeted 1.9% on Wednesday, 11 June, and broke below its 20-day moving average, with a daily close below it (see Fig. 1).Prior to the bearish breakdown of its 20-day moving average, the US Wall Street 30 CFD has breached below the medium-term ascending channel support from its 30 March 2026 low on Tuesday. These observations suggest the medium-term uptrend phase from 30 March 2026 has been demagaed, and it is now transiting into a potential medium-term downtrend phase.Watch the 50,390/540 key short-term pivotal resistance for further potential weakness towards the next intermediate supports at 49,730 and 49,250/095 in the near-term.On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 50,540 invalidates the minor bearish bias scenario for a corrective rebound for a retest on the next intermediate resistance at 50,895.Top macro headlines Trump threatens hard strikes on Iran, crude rebounds past $90: Geopolitical tensions erupted into a volatile escalation on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. will be “attacking them, attacking them very hard.” The aggressive stance followed overnight strikes that damaged a fragile two-month truce, prompting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to surge by more than 3% back above $90 as hopes for a quick resolution faded.Wall Street rout wipes out weekly advances as megacaps slump: Equity markets experienced a broad liquidation as the S&P 500 tumbled 1.6%, wiping out this week’s gains. Risk-off sentiment intensified as major technology firms and a closely watched semiconductor gauge (SOX) slid 3.6%, adding to anxieties over stretched AI valuations.US CPI jumped to almost a 3-year high, reinforced hawkish rate vibes: The U.S. Labour Department released a red-hot consumer price index data that showed an increase of 4.2% y/y in May, its highest level since April 2023, threatening sticky, energy-driven inflation and renewed fears of an emergency Federal Reserve interest rate hike before year-end.AI Capital demands are raising concerns about an institutional liquidity drain: Wall Street strategists are signalling alarm about an unprecedented wave of equity supply from private tech giants looking to fund AI ambitions. Capital allocators note that mega-cap private listings, including SpaceX’s fixed $135/share offering and Anthropic’s confidential IPO tracking, are forcing funds to dump liquid public equities to build necessary cash reserves.Amazon’s expansion of its shipping service targets major trucking routes: Shares of several large transportation and logistics companies plunged on Wednesday. The aggressive drop came immediately after Amazon.com Inc. announced a sweeping expansion of its proprietary internal shipping network, directly rattling the commercial freight sector.Key macro themes The return of the stagflation dilemma: The core structural narrative guiding global macro desks shifted violently away from a “soft landing” and straight back toward stagflation risk. While consumer price metrics print near-stable levels, the persistence of an energy supply crunch amid direct military friction across the Middle East keeps input costs highly elevated. If the Strait of Hormuz shipping corridor faces prolonged or indefinite disruptions, oil-driven price pressures will override corporate margin resilience, forcing global central banks to lean toward hawkish policies despite weakening economic output.The AI funding bottleneck and private Issuance pressures: An underlying undercurrent to the weakness in public technology markets is a massive, looming structural drain of institutional capital. A flood of major private corporations seeking public capital to fund intensive infrastructure requirements threatens to crowd out standard secondary-market liquidity. As capital allocators clear the deck for multi-billion and near-trillion-dollar valuations across private artificial intelligence and defence aerospace firms, existing public tech listings are facing a persistent ceiling on structural bids.Cross-asset volatility inversion: As standard multi-asset insurance models begin to fray, correlations across traditionally inverse asset classes are breaking down. Bond market volatility metrics remain structurally elevated near multi-decade highs, driven by shifting policy outlooks in Tokyo, Frankfurt, and Washington. Rather than serving as an organic buffer, fixed income has become an active vector of volatility, driving stock market risk premiums significantly higher year-to-date.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 lost 1.6%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 declined 2% as hardware and semiconductor names underperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.9% amid weakness in consumer retail and logistics. In Europe, the STOXX 600 retreated amid concerns about industrial vulnerabilities.In today’s Asia opening session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures staged a relief bounce of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively after US Central Command declared that military strikes on Iranian targets have been “completed’.Fixed Income: Sovereign bonds posted modest losses as safe-haven bids failed to fully offset hawkish rate-hike fears. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note advanced 4 basis points to settle near 4.55%. Internationally, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield advanced 3 basis points to 3.08%, and the UK’s 10-year Gilt yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.95%. FX: The US Dollar Index traded almost unchanged on Wednesday as market participants await the ECB’s new monetary policy guidance today after fully pricing in a 25 bps hike for today’s policy meeting. The euro traded flat at 1.1535, and the British pound rested virtually unchanged at $1.3368.The Japanese yen inched up by 0.1%, hovering around 160.50 per dollar, just a whisker below the 30 April 2026 high of 160.73 that triggered intervention from Japanese authorities. The worst performer was the risk-sensitive AUD, which fell 0.4% to a 2-month low of 0.7000 per dollar. Commodities: Energy-dominated resource complexes, with WTI crude jumping 3.5% to settle at $91.84/bbl on Trump’s geopolitical remarks. Conversely, spot gold collapsed 4.4% to trade at $4,072/oz as non-yielding safe-havens buckled under the higher-for-longer assumption of global sovereign yields. Asia Pacific impact Equity indices retest key support levels: Driven lower by deep overnight liquidation across New York tech megacaps, regional APAC benchmarks tracked heavy downside on Thursday, Asia opening session. Speculative positioning in tech-concentrated hubs such as South Korea’s KOSPI (-2.4%) and Taiwan’s benchmark TAIEX (-2.3%) came under intense pressure amid declines in local semiconductor companies. Intraday losses were seen in other bourses: Nikkei 225 (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.4%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-0.4%), ASX 200 (-0.3%), and STI (-0.5%).Regional currencies hit 17-year lows: Underlying currency defence limits remain under extreme stress across Asia. The South Korean Won continued to trade near a severe 17-year low of 1,530 against the greenback, prompting localised currency stability committees to keep maximum alert flags raised.Indonesian Rupiah anchors following emergency actions: Following a surprise emergency interest rate hike implemented during the prior session by Bank Indonesia to insulate the local capital account from global capital flight, the Indonesian Rupiah showed tentative signs of consolidation, holding its hard floor against the U.S. Dollar as it rebounded for the consecutive session from its record low of 18,180 printed on Monday, 8 June 2026.Top 5 events to watch today ECB Interest Rate Decision - 8:15 pm SGT (consensus: 25 bps hike) Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, BundsUS PPI (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 5.4% y/y, Apr: 5.2% y/y) Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indices, GoldUS Weekly Initial Jobless Claims - 8.30 pm SGT Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesECB Press Conference - 8:45 pm SGT Impact: EUR, EUR crosses, DAX, BundsUS - Iran ceasefire agreement Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Technology stocks remain under pressure as the AI trade undergoes a valuation reset. Semiconductor shares led another volatile session, with investors rotating capital away from existing tech winners amid concerns over stretched valuations and a growing pipeline of mega-sized IPOs, including SpaceX and OpenAI.Geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive market sentiment. Renewed US-Iran tensions following President Trump’s comments reinforced concerns over energy security and global supply chains, keeping investors highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines.Central banks are increasingly focused on financial stability and currency defence. Bank Indonesia’s surprise rate hike and reports of a potential Bank of Japan taper pause highlight policymakers’ growing willingness to intervene amid mounting pressure on currencies and sovereign bond markets.Chart of the day: Gold (XAU/USD) looking to extend further potential losses below $4,100 with key short-term resistance at $4,268/285.Chart of the day - Gold (XAU/USD) eyeing a bearish breakdown below $4,100 Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 10 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Gold (XAU/USD) has extended its losses by 2% in today’s Asia session to trade at an intraday level of $4,174, just a whisker away from the 23 March 2026 medium-term swing low of $4,100. Given that the price action of gold (XAU/USD) is firmly entrenched below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, its medium-term downtrend from the 29 January 2026 all-time high remains intact (see Fig. 1).Watch the $4,268/285 key short-term pivotal resistance to hold, as it maintains the ongoing minor bearish impulsive down move sequence, exposing the next intermediate supports at $4,187/167 and $4,100. Breaking below $4,100 may see a further deceleration towards $4,032 next in the first step.However, a clearance with an hourly close above $4,285 negates the bearish tone, opening the door for another minor corrective rebound to retest the next intermediate resistance at $4,373/394 in the first instance.Top macro headlines Global tech rout intensifies as chipmakers tumble 9%: A heavy wave of selling battered technology sectors worldwide on Tuesday. The semiconductor gauge (SOX), which had initially attempted a fragile bounce, fell 9% intraday before trimming losses to 1.9% at the close on Tuesday, dragging the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% and erasing prior efforts to scale back toward recent peaks.US-Iran friction spikes over helicopter strike: Hopes for a quick resolution to Middle East geopolitical conflicts faded after U.S. President Donald Trump publicly declared that the United States must actively respond to an Iranian attack on an American helicopter. The comments triggered immediate volatility across commodities and energy equities.Mega-cap tech IPO pipeline crowds public liquidity: Capital desks note that extreme equity volatility is being exacerbated by a massive pipeline of new tech listings. Following news that SpaceX’s landmark initial public offering is drawing extensive institutional oversubscription, OpenAI has formally filed a confidential U.S. IPO registration, aiming to chase rivals Anthropic and SpaceX toward historic multi-billion- and trillion-dollar public valuations.Bank of Indonesia taps emergency controls via surprise hike: In regional foreign exchange management, Bank Indonesia delivered an unannounced, surprise interest rate hike early Tuesday. The emergency monetary intervention successfully arrested a historic slide in the Indonesian Rupiah, triggering a strong short-covering bounce. The IDR extended its gains in today’s Asia session by 0.8% to trade at 17,990 per US dollar.Bank of Japan reportedly mulls taper pause: Fixed-income desks reacted aggressively to circulating reports that the Bank of Japan is actively considering a temporary pause or deceleration of its previously signalled bond-buying taper. The news triggered an immediate localised rally in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), the 10-year JGB yield dipped by 3 bps on Tuesday to close at 2.68%, still holding above its 50-day moving average at around 2.55%.Key macro themes The great funding drainage and valuation recalibration: The intensifying rotation out of richly priced technology names is evolving beyond a simple narrative shift. Institutional desks are increasingly highlighting a fundamental funding dilemma across global equities. With SpaceX seeking a massive $75 billion capital raise, Anthropic progressing through its listing path, and OpenAI targeting a public valuation of up to $1 trillion, large institutional allocators are being forced to trim existing liquid technology winners to make way for these massive generational private-market entries. This liquidity drain is actively structuring a ceiling on near-term public tech momentum.Geopolitical spillover into supply chain assets: Global markets continue to trade within a hyper-reactive geopolitical premium structure. While temporary halts in direct Israel-Iran strikes initially gave risk assets a brief window to capture a "dip-buying" bounce early in the Asian session, the subsequent U.S. rhetoric surrounding direct Iranian operations quickly reinforced the fragile baseline of global energy networks and shipping routes. The resulting cross-asset landscape remains structurally pinned to headlines, preventing standard macroeconomic or corporate fundamentals from asserting sustained price authority.Central banks locked in maximum-smoothing interventions: Emerging and developed monetary authorities across the Asia-Pacific region are navigating severe ceilings on currency depreciation. The surprise interest rate action out of Jakarta and the tactical JGB policy floating from Tokyo demonstrate that regional policymakers have reached structural boundaries where the absolute defence of financial stability supersedes long-term tightening blueprints. This interventionist posture is keeping sovereign yield curves highly compressed and prone to violent intraday gaps.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: The S&P 500 closed down 0.3%, while the tech-concentrated Nasdaq 100 plunged 1.1% as semiconductor giants lost 1.9%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly higher, with a meagre 0.2% gain on Tuesday, insulated by a deep institutional rotation into defensive, value-oriented blue chips. In today’s Asia session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures extended their losses by 0.3% and 0.4%.Fixed Income: U.S. sovereign debt caught a mild haven bid on the back of Trump’s Middle East remarks, pushing the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield down 5 bps to 4.52%, still above its 20-day moving average at 4.52%, ahead of today’s highly watched US CPI release.FX: The US Dollar Index finished little changed. The euro remained stable at $1.1544, while the British pound climbed 0.3% to finish at $1.3379. The Japanese yen grinded lower by 0.1% towards the prior intervention zone, closing at 160.36 per US dollar. The risk-sensitive Aussie continued its descent by 0.3% to hit a 2-month low of 0.7028 against the greenback.Commodities: WTI crude oil slumped 2.8% to close at $88.71/bbl, paring its sharpest intraday drop late in the session amid geopolitical updates. Safe-haven liquidation hit precious metals, pushing spot gold down 1.6% to settle at $4,260/oz. Asia Pacific impact Equity rebound thwarted by US tech contagion: While Asian indices like Japan's Nikkei 225 bounced 2.2% on Tuesday, overnight weakness in US technology stocks triggered a negative feedback loop into Asian bourses today. Almost a sea of red at the start of today’s Asia session; Nikkei 225 (-1.9%), KOSPI (-5.1%), Hang Seng Index (-1.1%), China A50 (-0.3%), CSI 300 (-1%), and STI (-1%), while Australia’s ASX 200 managed to buck the trend with a minor gain of 0.1%.Indonesian rupiah rebounds on shock rate action: The Indonesian Rupiah emerged as a top regional outperformer, rallying sharply against the U.S. dollar after Bank Indonesia executed a surprise, emergency rate hike to defend its capital account against persistent capital flight and ongoing emerging market macro pressures.JGBs catch a wave of re-buying capital: Japanese Government Bonds rallied aggressively, driving domestic yields lower following formal reports indicating that the Bank of Japan is actively leaning toward a pause in its sovereign bond-purchase tapering program to stave off broader debt network illiquidity.Top 5 events to watch today US Core Inflation Rate (May) - 8:30 pm SGT (consensus: 2.9% y/y Apr: 2.8% y/y) Impact: All asset classesBoC Interest Rate Decision - 9:45 pm SGT (consensus: 2.25%/unchanged) Impact: USD/CAD, CAD crossesEIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories Report -10.30 pm SGT Impact: WTI and Brent crudeSpaceX Pre-IPO Bookbuilding Adjustments Impact: US stock indicesUS-Iran developments over peace deal negotiations Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The S&P 500 faces growing downside risks amid deteriorating market breadth. Despite a sharp rebound in semiconductor stocks, only three of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced, highlighting narrow leadership and a lack of broad-based participation in the rally.Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes are tightening financial conditions. Following a stronger-than-expected US jobs report, markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate hikes starting as early as October 2026, which could pressure valuations, particularly in AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related sectors.Technical indicators point to further near-term weakness. The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average, while the NYSE Advance/Decline line has broken below key support and flashed a bearish divergence, suggesting underlying distribution rather than accumulation. The S&P 500, one of the four major US benchmark stock indices, posted a 2.6% weekly decline, halting its 9-week streak of consecutive gains, and recorded its worst weekly performance since the week of 23 March 2026 during the depths of the US-Iran war.The bulk of last week’s losses came on Friday, 5 June, ex-post US non-farm payrolls induced a plunge of 2.64%, reinforcing a tighter liquidity condition ahead as Fed funds futures traders start to position for a more hawkish US Federal Reserve.Based on the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool as of 9 June 2026, the increased odds of 63% that the Fed may start to enact its first 25 basis points (bps) rate hike as soon as the October 2026 FOMC meeting and another hike of 25 bps (63% chance) to come in April next year.This hawkish Fed funds rate repricing is likely to dampen the earlier optimistic revenue guidance reported during the first-quarter US earnings reporting session, especially in the AI-infrastructure and semiconductor sectors, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the S&P 500.Weak market breadth Fig. 1: S&P 500 medium-term trend with cumulative AD line as of 8 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The “buy-the-dip” behaviour seen in US semiconductor stocks on Monday, 8 June, when the PHLX Semiconductor index surged by 5.6% to lead the intraday recovery, could be a “bull trap” as market breadth was weak.Out of the 11 S&P 500 sectors, only three of them managed to notch gains on Monday: Technology (+1.5%), Energy (+1.1%), and Consumer Discretionary (+0.5%).Also, the cumulative Advance/Decline line of all stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) has broken below a former medium-term ascending support after a bearish divergence condition, indicating a distribution pattern underneath rather than an accumulation after yesterday’s rally in US semiconductor stocks (see Fig. 1).Let’s now decipher the short-term trajectories (1 to 3 days) of the SPX 500 CFD (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures).Capped below the 20-day moving average Fig. 2: US SPX 500 CFD minor trend as of 9 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bearish reversal of medium-term uptrend, 7,496/522 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).Supports: 7,340/327 (8 May/19 May 2026 minor lows), 7,270 (1 May 2026 former minor high & Fibonacci extension), 7,200 (28 April/5 May 2026 congestion & Fibonacci extension).Next resistances: 7,566 (5 June 2026 minor high), 7,600 (2/5 June 2026 congestion).Key elements to support the short-term bearish bias on SPX 500 CFD Yesterday’s rebound stalled at around 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor drop from the 5 June 2026 high to the 8 June 2026 low.Price actions remain below the 20-day moving average.The hourly RSI momentum indicator remains capped below a descending resistance at around the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin is under strong selling pressure, falling over 17% in a week and dropping below USD 60,000. The decline was intensified by USD 532 million in long liquidations on Binance, which triggered additional forced selling.Market sentiment worsened after Strategy sold part of its bitcoin holdings. Although the sale was small — 32 BTC for USD 2.5 million — it raised concerns that the largest corporate bitcoin holder could make further sales in the future.The broader crypto market is weak due to macro and demand concerns. Strong U.S. labor data reduced hopes for rate cuts, retail investors are shifting toward AI-related tech stocks, ETF inflows remain too small to support prices, and security concerns after the Zcash vulnerability further damaged trust. Bitcoin has come under heavy selling pressure and has already lost more than 17 percent since the beginning of the week. On Friday, its price fell below the psychological barrier of USD 60,000, increasing investor concerns about a further deepening of the correction. Bitcoin has fallen below its 200-week SMA for the first time in three years. From its all-time high near USD 126,000, the leading cryptocurrency has already lost more than half of its value. Weekly timeframe of Bitcoin, source: TradingView Long liquidations increase pressure on the marketThe scale of the declines was amplified by the forced closure of leveraged positions. Over the past 24 hours, long positions worth USD 532 million were liquidated on the Binance exchange. Such a large wave of liquidations shows that many investors betting on a bitcoin rebound were forced to close their positions, which further increased selling pressure in the market.This mechanism often deepens declines, as automatic liquidations lead to further sell orders. As a result, the market can move more sharply than would be implied solely by incoming macroeconomic data or the decisions of the largest investors.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale weighed on sentimentOne of the factors worsening sentiment was the news that Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and a company associated with Michael Saylor, had sold part of its bitcoin holdings. The company sold 32 bitcoins for USD 2.5 million. Although the transaction was small compared with the company’s overall portfolio, it carried significant symbolic weight.It was only Strategy’s second bitcoin sale since it began making purchases in 2020. The company explained the decision as necessary to pay coupons to holders of preferred shares, but investors interpreted it as a possible weakening of the long-standing narrative of holding bitcoin indefinitely. The market is primarily concerned that this small sale could foreshadow further, larger transactions in the future. This risk was highlighted by Peter Schiff, a well-known bitcoin critic, who stressed that the problem is not the scale of the current sale itself, but its potential consequences for investor confidence. Before this transaction, Strategy had reportedly purchased a total of 843,738 BTC for nearly USD 64 billion, which is why any change in the company’s strategy is being closely watched by the market.Declines spread across the entire cryptocurrency marketSelling pressure was not limited to bitcoin. Ethereum fell by around 23 percent over the week to USD 1,555, while Solana lost about 22 percent, dropping to USD 63.75. Weakness was also visible in shares of companies linked to cryptocurrencies. Strategy’s stock fell by almost 10 percent, while Coinbase shares declined by 8.4 percent. Weekly timeframe of Strategy (MSTR), source: TradingView A modest positive signal came from inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs yesterday after 13 days of outflows. However, the scale of these inflows, amounting to just over USD 3 million, was too small to change the overall market picture. In practice, this means that institutional demand remains too weak to effectively stop the current sell-off.Strong U.S. Data reduces hopes for rate cutsSentiment was also hurt by strong data from the U.S. labor market. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, clearly above expectations. Such data reduces the likelihood of swift interest rate cuts in the United States, which is unfavorable for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Monthly change in United States Non Farm Payrolls, source: Trading Economics The strong labor market report weakened the narrative of imminent monetary policy easing, while bitcoin currently lacks a clear macroeconomic catalyst that could support a rebound.Retail investors shift their attention to tech stocksAn additional problem for the crypto market is the outflow of some retail investors toward technology stocks, especially companies linked to artificial intelligence. Retail investors have largely left the cryptocurrency market and returned to equities, making it difficult to identify new sources of demand for bitcoin.In an environment of weakening interest and a lack of fresh capital, every negative piece of news can trigger a stronger price reaction. This applies both to macroeconomic data and to decisions by major entities holding significant bitcoin reserves.Security issues weaken trust in CryptoThe cryptocurrency market is also struggling with concerns over trust in the security of blockchain technology. Investors paid particular attention to a vulnerability in the Zcash network, after which the cryptocurrency’s price fell by more than 40 percent in a single day. Developers fixed the bug, but they were unable to clearly determine whether it had been exploited to create additional tokens. This situation increased concerns that increasingly advanced artificial intelligence models may in the future help detect similar vulnerabilities in other cryptocurrency projects. For a market already under downward pressure, such information further worsens sentiment.Lack of new sources of demand makes a rebound difficultThe current sell-off in bitcoin is the result of several negative factors overlapping: strong U.S. economic data, reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, investors shifting toward technology stocks, concerns about Strategy’s future actions, trust issues related to the security of some crypto projects, and the large scale of long liquidations in the leveraged instruments market.Bitcoin remains under pressure, and the lack of clear new sources of demand means that a quick and sustained rebound may be difficult. The market appears weakened, and investors are watching increasingly closely to see whether the drop below USD 60,000 proves to be only a brief breach of an important level or a continuation of the downward trend that began in October 2025. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways EUR/USD remains resilient ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, supported by expectations that the European Central Bank will maintain a more aggressive tightening path than the Federal Reserve despite weak Eurozone growth.Interest-rate expectations are becoming increasingly supportive for the euro, with the Eurozone-US policy rate differential narrowing as markets price additional ECB rate hikes while the Federal Reserve faces a more balanced growth-versus-inflation trade-off.Technical indicators suggest EUR/USD may be forming a near-term base above key channel support at 1.1580, with improving momentum signalling a potential short-term recovery toward the 1.1645–1.1720 resistance zone. Ahead of today’s critical US Nonfarm Payrolls release, the EUR/USD pair has been grinding sideways around the 1.1610-1.1620 zone, showing resilience amid a fundamentally strong US Dollar environment.Diverging growth vs. converging hawkishness The primary catalyst today will be the US labour market data. According to Reuters, the US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May, representing a slowdown from April’s 115,000, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%.A “slow-hire, slow-fire” equilibrium continues to anchor the US labour market, keeping conditions stable enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its higher-for-longer stance. In fact, market pricing from the Fed funds futures market currently reflects a roughly 60% probability of a 25-basis-point hike by the Fed at its December 2026 meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh.Earlier this week, mixed signals, from stronger ADP and JOLTS data to an uptick in weekly jobless claims (225K), have kept traders cautious, clipping the USD slightly in recent sessions.On the other side of the Atlantic, the Euro is being supported by an aggressively hawkish European Central Bank (ECB). Despite the Eurozone facing stagflation risks, with Q1 GDP growth a meagre 0.1% q/q, inflation remains sticky, hitting 3.2% y/y, largely driven by energy shocks.Consequently, the latest Reuters polling indicates the ECB is highly likely to hike its deposit rate to 2.25% next week, providing a solid floor for the single currency and countering the dollar’s strength.Further steepening of the Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread Fig. 1: Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Also, the monthly implied future policy interest rate curves for the Eurozone and the US, based on short-term interest rate futures, have steepened.The Eurozone/US implied policy rate curve spread in August 2026 has increased to -1.28% from June 2026’s print of -1.45% and shifted upwards from -1.45% three months ago (see Fig. 1).These observations suggest that the ECB is likely to be more hawkish or less dovish than the Fed, reinforcing a “floor” on the EUR/USD.Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the EUR/USD from a technical analysis perspective.Forming a potential minor base above the medium-term ascending channel support Fig. 2: EUR/USD minor trend as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Trend bias: Bullish bias above 1.1580 medium-term pivotal support for a minor recovery (see Fig. 2).Resistances: 1.1645/1660 (also the 20-day moving average), 1.1685 (also the 200-day moving average), 1.1720 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of prior decline from 6 May 2026 high to 21 May 2026 low).Supports: 1.610/1595 (4 June 2026 minor low & medium-term ascending channel support from 13 Mar 2026 low), 1.1580 (MT pivot), 1.1555 (7 April 2026 congestion).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on EUR/USD The recent sideways movement in EUR/USD since 21 May 2026 has formed a base/floor just above the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel in place since the 13 March 2026 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout after finding support on its ascending trendline, suggesting a potential resurgence of short-term bullish momentum. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways The AI-driven equity rally is showing signs of fatigue after Broadcom’s disappointing guidance triggered a sharp selloff in semiconductor and cybersecurity stocks, prompting investors to rotate into more defensive and cyclical sectors.The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to a record high as falling oil prices eased inflation concerns, while hopes for progress in US-Iran negotiations supported industrial, financial, and value-oriented sectors.Indonesia has emerged as a major source of regional market stress, with the rupiah and local equities suffering significant capital outflows amid concerns over government intervention policies, raising broader emerging-market contagion risks across Asia.Chart of the day: Nasdaq 100 minor uptrend from 19 May 2026 at risk of breaking down below 30,535 key short-term resistance.Chart of the day - Nasdaq 100 at risk of minor corrective decline Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 5 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The price action of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD (a proxy for the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) has staged a bearish breakdown below its minor ascending channel support, taken from the 19 May 2026 low, after it printed a fresh intraday all-time high of 30,773 on Wednesday, 5 June 2026.Yesterday’s bearish reaction close to the former ascending channel support implies that the minor uptrend phase from the 10 May 2026 low is in jeopardy.Watch the 30,535 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 30,000 near-term support may trigger a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate supports at 29,700 (also the 20-day moving average), and 29,410.However, a clearance with an hourly close above 30,535 invalidates the bearish tone and extends the bullish impulsive up move, with the current all-time high area at 30,728/795, before the next intermediate resistance comes in at 31,050 (Fibonacci extension).Top macro headlines Tech sector wobbles on Broadcom outlook: Broadcom Inc. shares slumped 14% to 15% in premarket trading after its semiconductor revenue forecast fell short of expectations. This triggered a broader tech selloff that also hit cybersecurity firms like CrowdStrike, which dropped 10%.Dow surges as oil eases: Reversing yesterday’s spike, WTI and Brent crude prices dropped by 2%-3% to fall back to around $95-83 a barrel as traders eyed a potential Iran deal following news of a Lebanon-Israel ceasefire. This relief in energy costs propelled the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 875 points (1.70%) to a record high.Middle East ceasefire complications: While oil prices initially fell on ceasefire hopes, US efforts to halt fighting in Lebanon were undermined after the pro-Iran Hezbollah movement rejected the new truce and Israel said it would not withdraw troops. Progress in US-Iran talks has also stalled.Indonesian markets plunge: Indonesian assets are in a severe selloff, with the benchmark stock index tumbling 36% from its record high five months ago, making it the worst-performing market globally this year. The rupiah fell by over 7% amid concerns about President Prabowo Subianto’s interventionist policies.Key macro themes AI Enthusiasm meets reality check: The “parabolic” rally in semiconductor and AI stocks is taking a breather. Investors are rotating out of tech and into other sectors viewed as better positioned for a resilient economy, re-evaluating the immediate revenue returns of massive AI infrastructure spending.Emerging-market contagion risks: The rapid withdrawal of foreign capital from Indonesia underscores the vulnerability of emerging markets to populist political shifts. The South Korean won also fell to its weakest level since 2009 at 1,545 per USD, indicating broader pressure on Asian currencies as the Iran war drags on.Energy security and inflation: Oil markets remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with the Saudi energy minister calling for stability at a Russian economic forum to prevent a loss of energy sustainability. Markets are weighing whether oil-driven inflation pressures could force a US interest rate hike as soon as October.Global markets impact (last 24 hours) Equities: S&P 500 futures slipped to 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1% in today’s early Asia session. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to a record high on sector rotation on Thursday, 4 June. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose 0.5% amid its lower tech weighting. The UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.3%. Fixed Income: Shorter-term US Treasuries rebounded, with the US 2-year yield declining 4 basis points to 4.05% ahead of today’s US non-farm payroll report, while the US 10-year yield held steady at around 4.48%.FX: The US Dollar Index fell 0.1%. The euro rose 0.4% intraday to $1.1645 before closing lower at $1.1611 on Thursday, 4 June. The Japanese yen strengthened slightly to 159.77-159.85 per USD before rebounding to 160.00 (close to prior intervention levels).Commodities: WTI crude fell by 3.4% to around $92.92/bbl. Spot gold rebounded by 0.9% to $4,475/oz but remained below its 20-day moving average at around $4,544/oz. Asia Pacific impact Tech-heavy markets suffer: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.8% to 1.3%, dragged down by the US tech selloff. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled 5% intraday, acting as a bellwether for regional AI investments. Across the board, weakness was seen in key Asia Pacific benchmark stock indices today: Nikkei 225 (-1.6%), Hang Seng Index (-0.8%), China A50 (-0.1%), ASX 200 (-0.7%), and STI (-0.3%).Currency Interventions looming: The South Korean won hit its weakest level since 2009. Authorities in Indonesia and the Philippines are stepping up efforts to support their currencies as policymakers near the limits of their currency defences.Indonesian rout: The “sell Indonesia” trade is dominating the region, with massive foreign capital outflows from both bonds and equities following President Prabowo’s move to take direct control of key commodity exports.Top 3 events to watch today US Nonfarm Payrolls (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: +85K, Apr: +115K) Impact: All asset classesUS Unemployment Rate (May) - 8.30 pm SGT (consensus: 4.3%, Apr: 4.3%) Impact: All asset classesUS-Iran peace talks/ceasefire developments Impact: All asset classes Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Renewed clashes between the U.S. and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain reignited geopolitical concerns, driving oil prices sharply higher and triggering a broad risk-off move across global equity markets.The AI-led technology rally faced its first meaningful challenge after Broadcom's disappointing guidance raised concerns about the pace of AI infrastructure revenue growth, prompting investors to reassess near-term earnings expectations across the sector.Rising energy prices, resilient economic activity, and persistent inflation pressures have reinforced expectations for tighter monetary policy, with markets increasingly pricing a more hawkish Federal Reserve and a near-certain June rate hike from the European Central Bank.Chart of the day: WTI crude minor bullish trend remains intact above $95.10/bbl, key support with potential upside trigger at $100.00/bbl.Chart of the day - WTI crude minor bullish trend remains intact Fig.1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 4 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The minor bullish trend of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) from the last Friday, 29 May 2026 low of $88.90/bbl remains intact (see Fig. 1).Supported by an ascending trendline, watch the 95.10 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above the 100.00 near-term resistance (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages) is likely to reinforce a further potential minor recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 102.56 and 106.70.On the flipside, failure to hold and an hourly close below 95.10 invalidates the bullish tone, setting up a choppy decline to retest the next intermediate supports at 91.40 and 89.00.Top macro headlines US-Iran clashes disrupt peace: Overnight clashes between the US and Iran involving Kuwait and Bahrain resulted in one of the most serious flare-ups since the early April ceasefire, driving a sharp risk-off rotation across global markets.Tech AI rally falters: Broadcom Inc. issued a disappointing forecast signalling decelerating AI-fueled sales growth. This dragged down the broader tech sector, overshadowing early enthusiasm for Alphabet Inc.’s upsized $84.75 billion equity raise and SpaceX’s planned $75 billion IPO at $135 a share.Inflation risks trigger hawkish bets: Resilient consumer demand, corporate job additions, and a fresh surge in energy costs are fueling expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. Markets are increasingly betting the next Fed move will be a hike, while fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike for the ECB’s June 11 meeting.Key macro themes Geopolitical threat to energy supply: The renewed escalation in Middle East hostilities threatens to derail negotiations to extend the recent truce and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This is directly pressuring global energy supply lines and pushing crude prices higher.AI growth meets reality check: The stark contrast between massive capital raises in the tech space and Broadcom’s weak forward guidance suggests the AI sector is facing resistance, prompting investors to re-evaluate the near-term revenue potential of AI infrastructure.Central banks cornered by inflation: The combination of a robust labour market and a sudden commodity shock leaves central bankers trapped. Policymakers are under immense pressure to raise or maintain borrowing costs to prevent inflation from reigniting, directly stalling the recent equity rally.Global market impact Equities: The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, snapping a nine-day winning streak. The Dow dropped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.3%. Software ETFs slid 4.3%. Globally, the MSCI World Index reversed early record highs, closing down 0.7%.Fixed Income: The US 10-year Treasury yield advanced 5 bps to 4.49%. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year yield rose 6 bps to 3.04%, and Britain’s 10-year yield climbed 7 bps to 4.93%.FX: The US Dollar Index rose 0.3% on safe-haven flows and hawkish rate bets. The Euro declined 0.3% to $1.1598, and the British Pound fell 0.3% to $1.3420.Commodities: WTI crude surged 2.8% to $96.20/bbl, while Brent briefly topped $97/bbl amid geopolitical fears. Spot gold fell 1.2% to $4,435/oz, pressured by higher yields and a stronger USD to retest its key 200-day moving average.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets are undergoing a setback: Moving in line with weak performances seen in the US stock market overnight, key Asia Pacific stock indices are on the defensive and in profit-taking mode in today’s Asia session, where intraday losses were seen across the board. Nikkei 225 (-1.4%), KOSPI (-1.5%), Hang Seng Index (-1.5%), China A50 (-1.5%), CSI 300 (-0.8%), ASX 200 (-1.2%), and STI (-1.2%).Trade & tariffs optimism: Sentiment was partially supported by expectations of potential US tariff reductions on non-critical Chinese goods. Based on 2025 figures, this could cover approximately 10% of US imports from China, potentially revitalising direct exports.Yen intervention watch: The Japanese yen remained under significant pressure, falling 0.1% to hover near a multi-decade low of 160.08 per US dollar in today’s Asia opening session, leaving markets highly alert to potential intervention by the Bank of Japan. Key near-term support for the USD/JPY rests at 159.45 (Wednesday, 3 June 2026, minor swing low).Top 4 events to watch today ECB President Lagarde Speech - 4:00 pm SGT Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXUS Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesFed Speak (Barkin) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, US Treasuries, US stock indicesBoE Governor Bailey Speech - 11.40 pm SGT Impact: GBP/USD, GBP crosses, FSTE UK 100 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Global equities climbed to fresh record highs as optimism surrounding ongoing U.S.-Iran diplomatic negotiations combined with relentless AI-driven capital expenditure, boosting major indices including the S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World, and Nikkei 225.The U.S. economy is displaying an increasingly pronounced “K-shaped” divergence, where AI-fuelled corporate investment and profits continue to surge. At the same time, consumer savings have fallen to near their lowest levels since the Global Financial Crisis, raising concerns about the sustainability of consumer spending.Market leadership has become highly concentrated in technology and AI-related sectors, with Nvidia, Dell, Oracle, and other AI beneficiaries driving index gains. In contrast, most other sectors lag, highlighting growing concentration risk beneath record-high equity indices.Chart of the day: USD/JPY’s 4-week is losing upside momentum with risk of a minor corrective setback below 159.85 key short-term resistance.Top macro headlines World benchmarks stock indices scale all-time highs on Trump assurances: Global risk sentiment exploded on Monday as the big three U.S. stock indices joined the MSCI World, MSCI EM, and Japan’s Nikkei in hitting new historic records. The broad advance followed statements from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that, despite fresh weekend military exchanges, Washington and Tehran remain engaged in active diplomatic discussions.U.S. manufacturing activity expands at 4-Year High: Defying structural headwinds from the regional oil shock and record-low consumer confidence, figures released on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing activity is growing at its fastest pace in four years. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May rose to 54.0 versus 52.7 in April, and came in above expectations of 53. The brisk expansion is being driven primarily by immense, front-loaded corporate capital expenditures in artificial intelligence.Anthropic leads flurry of multi-trillion dollar IPO filings: Wall Street’s AI frenzy reached a new milestone as generative AI champion Anthropic confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering. With OpenAI preparing a parallel filing and SpaceX set to price its record-breaking listing later this month, institutional desks calculate that up to $4 trillion of new market capitalisation could debut in the coming weeks.NVIDIA moves AI edge computing directly to the PC Market: Shifting the competitive landscape for hardware developers, NVIDIA unveiled a new specialised architecture chip engineered to embed generative AI capabilities directly into standard laptops and desktop personal computers.U.S. consumer savings pool erased to pre-crisis low: Highlighting a severe “K-shaped” economic divergence, real economic metrics show the U.S. personal savings rate has plummeted to a four-year low of 2.6%. Excluding a brief anomaly in June 2022, the buffer is now tracking at its lowest overall absolute level since the 2008 global financial crisis.Key macro themes The multi-speed K-shaped consumer chasm: While corporate America, riding the AI infrastructure boom, enjoys near-historic profit expansions, everyday consumers are facing severe cost-of-living constraints. The rapid rate at which the population is depleting its savings buffers to sustain retail spending is a flashing warning to macroeconomists that current domestic consumption models are structurally unsustainable.The imbalance in extreme sector equity concentration: Although broad market averages notched pristine records, the underbelly of Monday’s Wall Street session exposed highly fragile technical leadership. Only two out of the S&P 500’s 11 major sectors finished in positive territory: technology (+2.5%) and energy (+1.9%). The remaining nine sectors fell broadly on Monday, 1 June, led by a 3% plunge in defensive utilities and a 2.6% drop in consumer discretionaries.Geopolitical supply volatility and the energy buffer draw: Renewed weekend military strikes between the U.S. and Iran in Kuwait and Lebanon instantly revived global supply anxieties. It comes at a highly critical juncture for physical fuel markets, where a historic 15-week streak of national gasoline stockpile drawdowns has left the system without an operational buffer heading into peak summer driving season.Global market impact (last 24 hours) Equities: Wall Street’s indices pushed to record closings, spearheaded by specialised tech clusters. Major individual corporate gainers included Dell (+10%), Oracle (+10%), and Nvidia (+6%), while Micron topped the historic $1,000 threshold. Hewlett-Packard exploded by 28% in after-hours trade following earnings. Conversely, hardware laggards included Qualcomm (-9%), Meta (-5%), and Intel (-5%). Europe and the UK finished lower on Monday, 1 June; DAX (-0.4%), FTSE 100 (-0.7%).Fixed Income: Sovereign bond markets faced steady selling pressure. Strong local manufacturing activity and structural stagflationary elements pushed U.S. Treasury yields up across the curve by as much as 3 basis points.FX: The U.S. Dollar Index displayed broad upward dominance. The USD/JPY pair advanced aggressively toward the critical 160.00 intervention threshold. The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) and Swedish Krona dropped close to 1.0% to pace G10 losses, while the Argentine Peso (-1.5%) led emerging market declines.Commodities: Crude oil prices spiked violently on geopolitical backsliding. Global benchmark Brent and WTI crude surged by 4%-5%. Non-yielding spot gold retreated by 1,2% after the rejection of its 20-day moving average to close at $4,485/oz on Monday, 1 June, on the backdrop of firmer US Treasury yields.Asia Pacific impact Stock markets break higher: Regional indices captured strong positive spillover from global tech allocations. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index climbed to a historic high, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 establishing fresh record peaks and South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index exploding by 4.0% in a massive single-session breakout. In today’s Asia opening session, profit-taking has emerged amid conflicting narratives on the progress of US-Iran peace talks; Nikkei 225 (-1.1%), KOSPI (-1.1%), China A50 (-1%), ASX 200 (-1%). In comparison, STI bucked the trend with an intraday gain of 0.3%.Macro energy strains and imports: The severe commodity spike imposes immediate burdens on regional trading balances. Data show that China’s crude oil imports plummeted to a 10-year low in May, driven by worsening domestic economic conditions and high international invoice costs.Top 3 events to watch today Eurozone Core Inflation Rate Prelim (May) - 5:00 pm SGT (consensus: 2.4% y/y, Apr: 2.2%) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAXFed Speak (Hammack) - 8:30 pm SGT Impact: USD, Short-term US Treasuries, US stock indicesUS-Iran peace deal progress news flows Impact: All asset classes.Chart of the day - USD/JPY is losing upside momentum Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 2 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The 3% rally in USD/JPY from its intraday low of 155.03 on 6 May 2026 is now showing signs of minor exhaustion.The hourly RSI momentum indicator flashed out a prior bearish divergence condition and exited its overbought level on Monday, 1 June 2026.Watch the 159.85 key short-term pivotal resistance with risk of a corrective setback towards the intermediate supports of 159.10 and 158.80 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 1).However, a break and an hourly close above 159.85 invalidates the setback scenario and opens the door for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances/prior intervention zones at 160.23/45 and 160.65. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways WTI crude oil is on track for its worst monthly performance since April 2025, down 16% in May as easing US-Iran tensions reduce geopolitical risk premium.Technical signals remain bearish, as WTI trades below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages within a descending channel.Further downside risks remain in play toward the US$87.60 and US$81.94/85 support zones unless WTI breaks above the key US$95.10 resistance. The former red-hot West Texas crude oil is looking to end the month of May 2026 on a bearish footing, an intra-session monthly decline of 16% (at this time of writing), its first negative month after four months of consecutive gains, and on the verge of recording its worst monthly performance since April 2025.WTI crude from outperformer to underperformer Fig. 1: Major cross-asset performances from 1 May 2026 to 28 May 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The ongoing weakness in crude oil prices has been primarily due to a potential end to the current three-month US-Iran conflict, which is likely to lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, reinforced by a tentative deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and, separately, to launch further talks on Tehran’s nuclear program. This sticky point caused the breakdown in US-Iran negotiations over the past month.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has now become the worst performer among major cross-asset classes in May, with WTI crude oil futures notching a double-digit loss of 13% from 1 May 2026 to Thursday, 28 May 2026 (see Fig. 1).Let’s now focus on the 1 to 3 days trajectory of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspective.WTI crude – Oscillating within a minor descending channel Fig. 2: West Texas crude oil CFD minor trend as of 29 May 2026 (Source: TradingView). Trend bias: Minor downtrend within medium-term range configuration with 95.10 key short-term pivotal resistance (see Fig. 2).Supports: 87.60 (20 Apr 2026 gap), and 81.94/85 (17 Apr/11 Mar 2026 low & minor descending channel’s lower boundary).Next resistances: 97.40 (26 May 2026 high), 100.00 (psychological, 20-day & 50-day Mas), and 102.56 (22 May 2026 high & 61.6% Fibonacci retracement from 19 May 2026 high to 29 May 2026 intraday low).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the WTI crude Price actions have formed a minor descending channel since the 20 May 2026 highPrice actions remain below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since 25 May 2026.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to flash out bearish momentum conditions below the 50 level and has not reached its oversold region (below the 30 level). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsGlobal Assets have all pushed for the pricing of a now decisive peace process between the US and Iran after two full months of ceasefireStock Markets have all exploded to new highs, but this also adds to the expectations of a concrete deal ahead Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Global asset prices are now being driven by the fast-moving peace process between the United States and Iran. After two months of a fragile ceasefire, the situation has quickly moved from a tense standoff to real progress toward a formal agreement. This shift is causing major investors in North America and around the world to move their money in response.The main reason for this big change came on Monday, when President Trump announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries – For those who haven’t heard the term, an MoU is a non-binding agreement that sets out the basic terms and expectations for a future treaty. This agreement gives both sides 30 days to fully reopen the important Strait of Hormuz and includes economic concessions to Iran to help the talks succeed. Even though there were a few minor military incidents overnight, Wall Street is largely ignoring them. Traders are focused on the Memorial Day announcement and believe the push for peace is strong enough to overcome small setbacks. Oil 4H Chart. May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView This breakthrough has had a major impact on energy markets. WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped sharply, falling back to the low $90 range. Prices have stayed around these lows all week, showing that a large part of the war anxiety pricing is already fading.As energy costs fall and supply chain risks fade, major North American stock indices have surged to new record highs, particularly Nasdaq reaching 30,000. Investors are optimistic right now, but this rapid rise means there is no room for mistakes in the peace process. The market is now counting on a clear and successful final agreement.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Cryptos fail to generate momentum continuous confusion – BTC and Ethereum (ETH) Technical OutlookMarkets are sending mixed feelings on the peace Deal – Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Intraday LevelsThe Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance in the past 10 days – May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stock Indices are once again exploding higher, with Japan putting the most impressive catch up to its past week losses and Nasdaq following close.Overall, the rebound is global with the Strait of Hormuz new largely soothing investors.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView The action in the US Dollar is quite contradicting in recent days, but is starting to tilt more to one side.After bouncing above 99.00 last week, the DXY led a few tests within the 500 pips region (99.00 to 99.50) and after yesterday's bounce, sellers are appearing at the 4H 50-period MA indicating a failed rally – More developments will be awaited to see how this really unfolds.Check out our past day US Dollar analysis to learn more:The Dollar contradicts the peace trade – EUR/USD, GBP/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView The Dollar is pursuing its rebound against FX Majors but is currently losing some steam as the conflict looks to be ending soon – Crude Oil maintains high correlation to the petrodollar, hence traders will need to continue to observe this development.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, May 27, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar is losing quite some momentum against most of its FX peers except for the Aussie Dollar, with Crude Oil lower which directly affects the Loonie.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may diminish Canadian Oil export demand. USD/CAD 4H Chart, May 27, 2026 – Source: TradingView For those following the weekly update, you may have tracked one of the clearest patterns in FX in recent times:USD/CAD maintains its 1.3550 to 1.3950 range, with the action continuing to rebound within as we speak, approaching the upper end of it – Watch reactions to the 1.3850 micro resistance.Levels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance (range highs)1.3950 Range high resistanceSupport Levels:1.38 mini-Pivot +/- 15 pips1.3750 Momentum Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support now Pivot (4H 50-period MA)1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)1.35 Key Psychological SupportEnd-January Lows 1.34820US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar It is the final Mid-Week update, so thank you for all who enjoyed the posts since a bit more than a year – I wish you success in the World of Trading and a long life in Markets.Don't forget to follow me on X (link below), send me messages for any questions and you can check out my website to learn more.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.