Week in review A rollercoaster week draws to a close for Global Markets. US-China trade talks were driving volatility and the mixed messages from both parties kept things interesting. Markets also saw harsher sanctions on Russian which has renewed the geopolitical risk premium when factoring in the Russia/Ukraine situation.President Trump went back and forth this week, keeping markets guessing as his rhetoric went from diplomatic to combative and back to diplomatic by the end of the week regarding China. A date has now officially been set for a Trump-Xi meeting which at this stage is set for October 30.President Trump is heading on an Asia visit this weekend with a senior US official stating that President Trump will sign economic agreements, including trade and critical minerals, on his trip this weekend.The news of a Trump-Xi meeting which markets had expected since the start of the week led to a rise in equities globally. European stocks closed at record highs.The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are set to have their best week in terms of percentage gain since August. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading for its biggest weekly jump since June.The moves in Global stocks were also helped by the cooler than expected US CPI data.as well as US earnings. For more on the CPI release read US Breaking News: Cool US CPI Print Weighs on the US Dollar, Dow Jones Index Eyes Higher Open zoom_out_map Source: LSEG The current third-quarter earnings season is moving very fast, with 143 companies in the S&P 500 having already reported their results.So far, 87% of those companies have surpassed Wall Street's expectations.Because of these strong results, analysts have raised their overall forecast for S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter to 10.4% year-over-year, which is a solid improvement from the 8.8% growth that was expected at the beginning of October.How has the US Dollar and FX Performed? The US Dollar was nearly flat on Friday, steadying after a brief dip following the release of the inflation report, though it remained on track for a small gain for the week.The euro rose slightly after a survey showed that business activity in the Eurozone, led by the services sector, grew faster than expected in October.The Canadian dollar was slightly weaker but saw a minimal reaction overall.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen fell to a two-week low despite data released earlier on Friday showing that Japan's core consumer prices remained above the central bank's 2% target, which kept alive expectations for an interest rate hike soon.Taking a brief look at how commodities ended the week and Gold prices reduced their losses on Friday after a slightly cooler-than-expected US inflation report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.Despite this recovery, gold was still set for its first weekly loss in ten weeks.Meanwhile, oil prices fell slightly as investors grew skeptical about how strongly the Trump administration would enforce its new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies.Even though both oil benchmarks retreated near the end of trading, giving up some of the previous day's large gains, they still finished the week more than 7% higher, marking their biggest weekly jump since mid-June.The Week Ahead Given that next week brings a host of central bank decisions, FX markets could have a busy week.Beyond the data, markets will be focused on the Trump-Xi meeting, Russia-Ukraine developments as well as renewed tensions between the US and both Venezuela and Colombia. Any signs of US military intervention in Venezuela could add to the risk premium and affect overall market sentiment.US earnings will also be key with a host of ‘magnificent 7’ companies all reporting Q3 earnings.Let us take a look at some of the key data releases which could shake markets next week.Asia Pacific MarketsIn the coming week, all attention will be on the US-China trade talks.The talks begin this weekend in Malaysia with top officials (led by China’s He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) and are expected to lead to the long-awaited face-to-face meeting between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on October 30th in South Korea. This will be their first meeting since 2019, following months of increasing trade fights and threats.Because the recent language has cooled, and President Trump has spoken optimistically about reaching a "fantastic deal" and even visiting China in 2026, we expect a positive outcome. This deal will likely at least continue the current uneasy trade truce.However, Trump has kept his options open by suggesting the meeting might not happen. If the meeting does go ahead, it likely means the top officials (He and Bessent) have already agreed on the basic terms of a deal.Regarding economic news, next week is quieter. The main data release will be China's manufacturing report next Friday, which is expected to show that manufacturing activity is still shrinking.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to keep its interest rate at 0.5% on October 30th.Even though the BoJ's board members still disagree on policy, the majority is not ready to change course yet. I believe that inflation has been firmly rising and the economy is holding up well despite challenges like US trade tariffs. These factors should support the BoJ's policy of eventually raising interest rates.However, because most board members are cautious about raising rates too soon, a rate increase might be delayed until December. Supporting this view, I expect key data next week, like the Tokyo consumer price index, to show a strong rise of 2.5%, and for economic activity (like factory output and retail sales) to recover.Central Bank Decisions and US-China Talks in FocusThe Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its interest rate by another 0.25% on October 29th, following a similar cut last month. While the US economy looks decent and inflation is still a bit high, the Fed is shifting its focus because the risks are changing.Price increases due to tariffs haven't been as severe as feared, giving time for factors like lower energy prices, slowing wage growth, and easing housing rents to help bring inflation down. At the same time, the job market is starting to look more concerning, with many indicators suggesting an increasing risk of job losses. Because this trend points to both weaker economic growth and lower inflation in the future, the Fed feels that moving interest rates closer to a neutral level is the sensible thing to do.The report on third-quarter economic growth (3Q GDP) is unlikely to be released next week because of the ongoing government shutdown.The upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting should be uneventful. Since the last meeting, economic data for the Euro area has been mixed: some surveys improved, but August's official data disappointed. While September inflation briefly went above 2%, the new, important figures such as the third-quarter GDP growth and the October inflation rate will both be released on the day of the meeting itself.With political risks calming down and officials signaling no rush, the ECB is expected to reaffirm its current stable position, with any potential decision on an interest rate cut pushed to December.My opinion is that the October inflation rate will remain around 2%, and third-quarter economic growth will be a muted 0.1%, showing the economy is avoiding a recession despite global problems but is nowhere near a strong rebound.Essentially, these data releases are expected only to confirm that the Eurozone economy is holding steady at a slow pace, so the ECB is unlikely to react to them strongly.The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 0.25% this week, even though recent reports showed job growth and inflation were a bit stronger than expected.The central bank is under pressure to help Canada's economy, which has been severely damaged by US tariffs (since three-quarters of Canada's exports go to the US).Additionally, Canadian consumers have very high debt levels, so the Bank is likely stepping in to provide needed support. zoom_out_map zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 24, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Key Levels to Consider:Support97.7096.9096.37Resistance99.57100.00100.61Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (24/10/2025): In today's podcast, we discuss how the Federal Reserve is balancing the demands of its dual mandate, as well as the better-than-expected US CPI, and the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision and its impact on sterling. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cooling inflation boosts rate-cut hopes: U.S. CPI and core CPI both came in below expectations in September, fueling market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as its next meeting, with another possible move in December.Markets rally on dovish expectations: Softer inflation data triggered gains across major U.S. stock indices, a drop in 10-year Treasury yields below 4%, and a weaker dollar against the euro.Risks and uncertainty remain: Despite easing price pressures, new tariffs, weak consumer sentiment, and potential data disruptions pose challenges for the Fed as it weighs balancing inflation control with supporting growth. The September consumer inflation (CPI) report in the United States has provided markets with long-awaited signals of a potential shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Both the headline CPI and its core measure came in below market expectations, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting — and possibly another one in December.Inflation Weakens – CPI and Core CPI Below ForecastsAccording to the published data, headline CPI rose by +0.3% month-on-month, compared to expectations of +0.4%, while core inflation — which excludes food and energy prices — increased by just 0.2%, the smallest gain in three months. On an annual basis, both indicators held steady at 3.0%, also below forecasts (3.1%). zoom_out_map United States CPI, source: tradingeconomics.com A particularly notable development was the slowdown in housing costs. The owners’ equivalent rent, a key component of services inflation, rose by only 0.1%, marking its slowest monthly increase since early 2021. This reading may be seen by the Fed as confirmation that previous rate hikes are effectively curbing price pressures in the economy.Room for Rate Cuts – Market Prices in EasingIn light of these figures, market expectations for monetary policy have shifted significantly. Investors are now pricing in an almost certain 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting. Moreover, the probability of a second cut in December has increased — particularly since a potential federal government shutdown could prevent the release of additional inflation data before year-end, making the September report even more crucial. zoom_out_map Probability of interest rate cuts based on 30 Day Federal Funds Futures, source: CME Group Although inflation is cooling, risks to the price outlook remain. New tariffs announced by President Donald Trump — including on kitchen and upholstered furniture — could raise the prices of imported goods in the coming months. Companies such as Procter & Gamble and O’Reilly Automotive admit that while they are currently absorbing higher costs through margins, they will increasingly be forced to pass them on to consumers.Market Reaction: Stock Rally, Lower Yields, Weaker DollarLower inflation and rising expectations of a looser monetary policy had an immediate impact on financial markets. Major U.S. stock indices recorded strong gains:Dow Jones up 1.17%,Nasdaq 100 up 1.14%,S&P 500 up 0.89%. zoom_out_map Daily chart of SP500, Dow Jones, NASDAQ100 and US10 yields, source: TradingView Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds fell below the 4% level, signaling a shift in investor expectations about the future path of interest rates. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened, reflected in the EUR/USD exchange rate, which rebounded from 1.1580, which it reached on Wednesday. Whether these trends continue will depend on future Fed communications and potential confirmation of a rate cut decision. Consumers Not Sharing the Optimism – Sentiment WeakensIt is worth noting, however, that despite market optimism, U.S. consumer sentiment has deteriorated. The University of Michigan index fell in October to 53.6 points, its lowest level in five months. Consumers continue to cite inflation and high living costs as their main sources of concern. Declining confidence could eventually weigh on consumption dynamics and, consequently, on the pace of economic growth.Conclusions: Fed at a Crossroads – Markets Benefit, but Risks PersistThe September inflation data have clearly increased the likelihood of monetary easing by the Fed, already boosting equity indices and weakening the dollar against the euro. However, the Federal Reserve still faces the difficult task of balancing inflation control with support for the real economy.New risks loom on the horizon — from protectionist tariffs and consumer uncertainty to the potential lack of further macroeconomic data due to government disruptions. In the coming weeks, not only the data itself but also the Fed’s communication and market reactions to every signal will be crucial for future movements on both Wall Street and the foreign exchange market. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Rise, Nikkei Up 1.4% Most Read: Nikkei 225: Bullish trend remains intact for another potential all-time high of 50,860/51,030Asian stock markets rose sharply on Friday, lifted by strong earnings from Wall Street companies like Intel and encouraging signs that the US and China might ease trade tensions. Japan's Nikkei index jumped 1.4% as the new Prime Minister promised economic stimulus.Overall sentiment improved significantly after the White House confirmed President Trump would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.Chinese stock indexes also climbed, with the main Shanghai index up 0.4%, with semiconductor stocks leading the gains, reflecting China's focus on building its own technology.In other news, the Canadian Dollar suddenly dropped after President Trump threatened to stop all trade talks with Canada over a trade-related ad by the Ontario government.UK Retail Sales Surprises UK retail sales volumes unexpectedly rose by 0.5% in September, marking the fourth straight month of growth and reaching the highest level since July 2022, which defied forecasts that sales would fall.This growth was mainly driven by a rise in non-food stores, especially clothing shops, and strong performance by online retailers. Online sales, which reached their highest level since February 2022, were notably boosted by online jewelers reporting high demand for gold.Overall sales volumes for the third quarter were 0.9% higher than the previous quarter and 1.0% higher than last year, thanks partly to good summer weather that helped clothing sales and online shopping. The value of online sales, in particular, has now grown for eight months in a row.Euro Area Growth Exceeds Expectations The Eurozone economy grew faster than expected in October, with the HCOB Composite PMI rising to 52.2, showing the quickest expansion since May 2024.This growth was mainly thanks to the Services sector, which reached a one-year high, while the Manufacturing sector unexpectedly avoided shrinking. Companies received more new business, mostly from domestic customers, which offset a drop in export orders. This led firms to hire more workers and stopped the drop in backlogs of work for the first time since April 2023. Although the cost of supplies rose less than before, companies raised their own prices at the fastest rate in seven months.However, business confidence for the future dropped to a five-month low. Overall, these results confirm that the European Central Bank (ECB) is in a good position, strongly suggesting that interest rates will remain steady for the foreseeable future, despite the possibility of a further cut not being completely ruled out.European Session - Euro Stocks Rise European stocks climbed on Friday, continuing their rally as investors were cheered by positive corporate earnings and hopes for a breakthrough in US-China trade relations. The main STOXX 600 index rose 0.3%, building on the previous day's record high, which had been driven by energy stocks following new US sanctions on Russia.Sentiment was lifted after the White House confirmed that President Trump will meet with his Chinese counterpart next week to address escalating trade tensions and an upcoming tariff deadline.In other news, sectors like technology and financial services saw gains, and unexpectedly strong British retail sales provided positive data.Meanwhile, investors are looking ahead to today's US inflation report, which will offer clues before the Federal Reserve's meeting next week.Among companies, Sanofi rose 3.3% on better-than-expected profit, Saab jumped nearly 6% after raising its sales forecast due to increased military spending, and NatWest gained 4.4% after reporting a 30% profit increase and raising its yearly goals.On the FX front, The US Dollar was steady on Friday and was set to end the week up by a small amount (0.5%) against other major currencies.The Canadian dollar barely moved, showing the market's main focus was on the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.The Euro was flat for the day and was on track for a slight weekly loss, despite a survey showing that business activity in the Eurozone grew faster than expected in October, led by the services sector.Meanwhile, the British pound was down slightly, even though the UK reported stronger-than-expected retail sales, which were helped by people buying gold online.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices barely moved on Friday, steadying after the sharp rise they had the day before. However, they were still on track to finish the week higher.This stability came after the US. put new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, which continues to raise concerns about the global oil supply.Brent crude was up 0.2% at $66.11, and US West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $61.95.Gold prices dropped more than 1.5% on Friday and were on track to break a nine-week winning streak, recording their biggest weekly percentage decline since November 2024.This sharp fall was triggered by investors choosing to lock in profits after the metal's recent strong rally, coupled with signs that trade tensions between the US and China were easing.This reduction in global uncertainty lowered the immediate demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, causing spot gold to be down 1.5% at $4,063.46 per ounce.Read More:WTI Oil: Crude rallies above $60 on fresh US sanctions and US million-barrel purchaseGBP/USD Slide Continues After UK Inflation Data. Is the Door Open for December BoE Rate Cut?Gold (XAU/USD) tumbles lower, now flirts with key level of $4,000: Is the rally over?Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts Markets are optimistic once more following the announcement of a meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US counterpart Donald Trump on October 30. Sentiment has been boosted ahead of some key data releases, though we have seen constant flip-flopping in policy and rhetoric from the Trump administration.This would mean that market participants should exercise caution on a potential US-China trade deal and further changes ahead of next week's meeting cannot be ruled out.The US session today will be a busy one. A welcome change of pace following the last few weeks. There is a host of data being released including PMI but all focus will be on the US CPI release.The US is releasing its inflation report (CPI) for September today, which is the first major economic data release since the government shutdown ended.However, I don't expect this report to cause big swings in currency markets.My forecast for the core inflation rate is 0.3% for the month and 3.2% for the year, which is nearly the same as what most other experts are predicting. For the overall inflation rate (headline CPI), I tend to agree with the general prediction of 0.4% for the month and 3.1% for the year. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has printed fresh all-time highs around 9610.A slight pullback since then does leave the index vulnerable for a slightly deeper correction but the overall risk-on tone may keep bulls on the offensive.The FTSE has dropped below the overbought region on the period-14 RSI which could be a sign that momentum may be shifting. However, as discussed above with overall sentiment remaining largely positive a deeper correction may face challenges.Immediate support rests at 9525 before the 100-day MA at 9472 comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 24. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Japan 225 CFD Index rally: The Japan 225 CFD Index (Nikkei 225 proxy) reached an all-time high of 49,970 on optimism over PM Takaichi’s more than ¥13.9 trillion expansionary stimulus plan.Market pullback: The index declined 3.4% from its peak, suggesting investors had already priced in expectations of aggressive fiscal measures.Earnings momentum: Forward 12-month EPS growth for Nikkei 225 stocks rose to 9.3% in October from 7% in September, signaling an improving corporate outlook.Foreign inflows strengthen: Net foreign purchases of Japanese equities surged sharply, reinforcing continued medium-term bullish momentum for Japan’s equity market. This is a follow-up analysis and timely update of our prior report,“Nikkei 225: Rallied above 48,000, key levels to watch next as new Japanese PM ignites bulls”, published on 7 October 2025The Japan 225 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) has rallied as expected and almost hit the first medium-term resistance of 50,090/50,220 highlighted in our previous publication. It printed a fresh all-time intraday high of 49,970 on 21 October 2025, on the backdrop of the newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi’s plan for implementing an expansionary stimulus package that is likely to be more than 13.9 trillion yen that centered on measures to counter inflation, investment in growth industries, and national security.However, the Japanese stock market appears to have already priced in expectations of an aggressive expansionary fiscal policy, as hinted in Prime Minister Takaichi’s previous speeches. The Japan 225 CFD Index has since declined by 3.4% from its all-time high on 21 October 2025, hitting an intraday low of 48,415 on Thursday, 23 October 2025.This raises an important question, is the medium-term uptrend that has been in place since April 2025 at risk of reversing, given the potential for rising longer-term Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields amid concerns over a widening fiscal deficit from Takaichi’s policy stance?Fundamental, flow, and momentum factors are still supportive for a further potential progression of the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase for the Japan 225 CFD Index. Let’s examine each of them.Nikkei 225 forward earnings growth has picked up zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 forward 12-month forward EPS growth as of 23 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The forward 12-month earnings per share (EPS) growth for the component stocks of the Nikkei 225 in aggregate has started to improve after a slowdown in the past 11 months. The forward EPS growth of the Nikkei 225 has recently increased to 9.3% year-on-year in October 2025 from 7% in September 2025 (see Fig.1).This earnings growth uptick suggests that more sell-side analysts have raised earnings projections for the Nikkei 225 for Q3 earnings results that may propel the Nikkei 225 higher.Net foreign inflows into the Japanese stock market have increased significantly zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Net purchases of Tokyo & Nagoya stock exchanges as of 17 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The 52-week average of net purchases of Japanese equities listed on the Tokyo and Nagoya stock exchanges has jumped by a significant amount from 6.2 billion in the week of 8 August 2025 to 81.5 billion as of 17 October 2025 (see Fig. 2).We shall focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory, key elements, and key levels to watch on the Japan 225 CFD Index from a technical analysis/momentum perspective.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) – Oscillating within minor & medium-term ascending channels zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD Index minor trend as of 24 Oct 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Maintain bullish bias with 48,845/48,440 as key short-term pivotal support for the Japan 225 CFD Index. A clearance above 49,560 key near-term resistance (upside trigger) opens up scope for the next resistances to come in at 50,090/50,220 and 50,860/51,030 (Fibonacci extension cluster) (see Fig. 3).Key elements Since the key minor swing low of 45,145 on 10 October 2025, induced by US President Trump’s “China trade tariffs bashing”, the price actions of the Japan 225 have been oscillating within a minor ascending channel.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the Japan 225 CFD Index has continued to show a bullish momentum condition since its bullish divergence signal on Wednesday, 22 October 2025.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below the 48,845/48,440 key short-term support negates the bullish tone for another extension of the minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 47,260 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Finding support at 6-month lows of around $56.40 per barrel, WTI has rallied just shy of 8.6% in the last three sessions alone.Currently trading at $62.04, up 4.10% in yesterday’s session, recent performance marks the best three-day stint since late July.As ever, let’s take a look at some of the macro themes at play, followed by some technical analysis as we attempt to answer the immortal question: what’s next for WTI?WTI (West Texas Intermediate): Key takeaways 24/10/2025 Gapping up 1.1% at Thursday’s open, WTI crude has found renewed buying support on new sanction announcements from the United States on leading Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and LukoilConstrained previously by logistical problems of safe storage, and of course, funding issues, the US Department of Energy confirmed on Tuesday its intentions to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish reserves, bolstering crude gainsOtherwise, and in the bigger picture, a cloud of oversupply fears lingers over crude oil markets, especially considering record output from non-OPEC+ members Most read: Gold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish reversal triggered after 8% sell-offWTI (West Texas Intermediate): Where were we? It’s high time I returned to my commentary roots and wrote some more coverage on crude oil markets.Although it would be fair to say that oil has played second fiddle to precious metals in recent months, both in terms of market interest and, indeed, performance.With that said, this appears to be changing, with recent geopolitical developments offering some welcome upside and, crucially, boosting WTI pricing above $60 for the first time since earlier this month. zoom_out_map WTI Crude Oil (WTICOUSD), D1 year-to-date, OANDA, TradingView, 23/10/2025 Without further ado, let’s break down some major macroeconomic themes and conclude with some market technicals, including some price targets.WTI (WTICOUSD): Fundamental Analysis 24/10/2025 New US sanctions on Russian oil: Reported Wednesday, the United States announced new sanctions on Russian oil exports, following an apparent breakdown in ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. zoom_out_map U.S. Department of the Treasury, Press Releases, 22/10/2025 Read the full press release here Coming only one day after Trump shelved a planned meeting in Budapest with Putin, it would seem that frustrations are running high after the demands of an immediate ceasefire have fallen on deaf ears. "I don’t want to have a wasted meeting. I don’t want to have a waste of time, so I’ll see what happens. We did all of these great deals, great peace deals, they’re all peace deals. Agreements, solid agreements every one of them" President Donald Trump, speaking to reporters at the White House, 21/10/2025 Clearly, the sanctions are intended as a bargaining tool to help encourage a peace deal, but at least so far, words from the Kremlin suggest that the Russian domestic oil industry will remain largely unaffected, boasting of its level of immunity from Western sanctions.While Trump hopes the economic impact of new sanctions will encourage Putin to return to the negotiating table, only time will tell how effective these measures will be.As for oil pricing, the associated fallout raises questions about supply, which is a positive development for pricing. This holds even more true when considering that the market narrative has been almost exclusively one of oversupply - the most recent geopolitical developments question this assumption somewhat, especially if tensions escalate. US to buy 1 million crude barrels to replenish reserves: I think most would agree that, especially when compared to previous presidents, Trump shares a very particular relationship with the crude oil markets. After all, who could forget this legendary catchphrase? zoom_out_map @realDonaldTrump, TruthSocial, 23/06/2025 If put simply, however, Trump policy surrounding crude oil centers almost exclusively revolves around two core tenets: To maintain America’s lead as #1 producer of crude oil worldwide, therefore establishing control over supplyTo keep oil prices low to promote economic growth On this basis, the latest development is the intent to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which recently saw record levels of depletion under the administration of former President Joe Biden. zoom_out_map US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Weekly U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in SPR, 23/10/2025 Being previously constrained by logistical matters and, of course, funding, the EIA will undoubtedly want to capitalise on historically low crude oil prices to increase its stockpile.Naturally, markets have interpreted this information as positive for crude oil, helping to boost pricing. Non-OPEC+ members report record crude output: While not as contemporaneous as the other two themes, a significant macro headwind continues to dictate the direction of crude markets: the fear of oversupply.Most recently, this is reflected in record output from non-OPEC countries, which have contributed to the current bearish bias. Otherwise, the aforementioned EIA has also confirmed sustained high levels of production.While there have been some attempts to stagger output increases by OPEC, which have proved limited in effectiveness, with crude oil inventories rising globally.In a nutshell, although the previous two themes are bullish for crude oil, the longer-term bias likely remains bearish from a supply standpoint.WTI (WTICOUSD): Technical Analysis 24/10/2025 zoom_out_map WTI Crude Oil (WTICOUSD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 24/10/2025 While recent upside has been impressive, rallying by almost 8.6%, there is still plenty of work to be done if oil is to break the current downtrend.While on a macro level, the narrative surrounding supply would have to change significantly to support this, technically, here’s some level to watch to the upside:Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target #1 - Previous support turned resistance - $62.564Price target #2 - $63.564 - 61.8% Fib What is encouraging, however, is that one of my personal favourite indicators, the SSL channel, has flipped to report a bullish bias. While this can occur during periods of market consolidation, when combined with a rising OBV volume, it may perhaps signify that a larger change is afoot.With that said, price action remains overwhelmingly bearish, assuming crude cannot break above ~$63.564, which might shake things up somewhat. Read more coverage from MarketPulse: Trump-Xi Meeting Leads to Improved Risk Appetite, Oil Continues to Rally – Market wrap for the North American session - October 23 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 23US stocks surged higher due to optimism over trade and strong gains in major tech companies, while investors mostly ignored the potential inflationary risk from the recent spike in oil prices.The S&P 500 nearly hit a new record high after the White House confirmed that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30th to discuss trade. This news helped tech giants rebound, with Tesla reversing its earlier losses to lead the gains.Separately, energy stocks rose along with oil prices after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian oil companies over the Ukraine conflict.The rally was further fueled by news that the Trump administration is considering a plan to boost the quantum computing industry to compete with China, which caused those related stocks to climb. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Down 5.7%, Biggest Daily Drop Since 2020. What Next for Gold Prices?GBP/USD Slide Continues After UK Inflation Data. Is the Door Open for December BoE Rate Cut?USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 23, 2025 – Source: TradingView US stock indexes all moved higher, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite seeing gains ranging from 0.39% to 1.05%.The energy market was a major focus as oil prices surged by over 5% following new U.S. sanctions on Russian suppliers, with the US also calling for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and threatening further action.This geopolitical tension also caused US Treasury yields to rise, as investors prepared for an important inflation report due on Friday.Finally, the renewed global risks boosted demand for the safe-haven asset, causing gold prices to rise by 1.04%, recovering after its pullback earlier in the week.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 23 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar was slightly stronger overall, gaining 0.38% against the Japanese yen but remaining mostly flat against a basket of major currencies.The British pound fell slightly by 0.25%, continuing to struggle after weak inflation data caused traders to expect an interest rate cut from the Bank of England this year.The euro saw a very small gain of 0.06% against the dollar, and the Swiss franc was largely unaffected by the release of its central bank's first-ever meeting minutes.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. We have a data dump ahead which is a nice change of pace from what we have seen for the majority of the week.First we have S&P PMI data from Australia which is followed by Japanese CPI data.Attention will then turn to the European session which will bring a host of PMI data releases from the Euro Area and the UK.The US session will also bring PMI data and University of Michigan sentiment releases. Attention will however be on the delayed CPI data release from the US which could stoke some volatility.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Retreat Asian stock markets fell for the second day in a row on Thursday, following Wall Street's selloff. This decline was driven by disappointing earnings from major US tech companies and growing geopolitical concerns over new US sanctions against Russia and potential new export controls targeting China.The broader Asia-Pacific index fell 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei index dropped 1.5%. Chinese stocks fell as much as 1.1% on news that the White House might curb a wide range of software-linked exports to retaliate against Beijing's rare earth restrictions.South Korean stocks also declined, particularly for tech hardware makers, even as the Bank of Korea kept interest rates steady as expected.Adding to the tech gloom, Tesla shares fell 3.8% in after-hours trading because its profit did not meet analyst expectations, despite high revenue.Market participants are now watching for a policy statement from China's officials wrapping up the Fourth Plenum and an upcoming meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterparts.European Session - Euro Stocks Rise European stocks rose slightly on Thursday, boosted by several companies reporting better-than-expected earnings, while investors remained focused on the trade conflict between the US and China.The main STOXX 600 index gained 0.2%. US President Trump offered confusing signals about his upcoming meeting with the Chinese President, first saying the meeting might not happen, but then saying he expected to reach agreements.Trade tensions increased due to reports that the US is considering export curbs on China to retaliate for China's rare earth restrictions. Separately, as the US and EU adopted new sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine war, European energy stocks rose 2.3% following a jump in oil prices; major players like BP and Shell saw gains over 2%.In company news, Nokia jumped 10.8% after beating profit forecasts, and luxury group Kering rose 7.8% after its sales fell less than analysts feared.On the FX front, the US dollar gained strength against most other major currencies on Thursday, with the dollar index rising 0.11%.The dollar increased by 0.28% against the Japanese yen, hitting its highest level since October 14.Meanwhile, the British pound weakened slightly, falling 0.12% against the dollar, and the euro also eased 0.12%.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices surged by over 4% on Thursday, continuing gains from the day before. The main reason for this sharp rise was the new US sanctions imposed on major Russian oil companies like Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war.Because of these sanctions, refineries in China and India will now be forced to find new oil suppliers to avoid being cut off from Western banks, increasing demand and pushing the price of Brent crude up to $65.30 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude up to $61.06 a barrel.Gold prices increased on Thursday because rising global political and economic tensions made safe-haven assets more attractive to investors. Specifically, new US sanctions targeting Russia and the possibility of new export controls against China increased geopolitical worries.Spot gold rose by 0.6% to trade at $4,119.54 per ounce, recovering after hitting a nearly two-week low in the previous trading session.Read More:GBP/USD Slide Continues After UK Inflation Data. Is the Door Open for December BoE Rate Cut?Gold (XAU/USD) tumbles lower, now flirts with key level of $4,000: Is the rally over?EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China. Yesterday's developments have had a negative impact on sentiment with the mixed messaging out of the US not helping matters.Sanctions on Russian Oil is another geopolitical risk which is back in the spotlight and affecting overall sentiment.Given that it is a quiet day on the data front, developments around these two geopolitical risks could be a key driver for the market ahead of tomorrow's US CPI release. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has extended its rally since breaking above the 100-day MA.The index is now trading just shy of its all-time highs around the 9592 handle.Momentum remains bullish and thus a fresh all-time high print cannot be ruled out.The one concern from bulls may come from the RSI. The period-14 RSI on four-hour timeframe is now hovering in overbought territory and this could potentially lead to some profit taking which in turn could push prices lower.The bullish structure remains intact as long price holds above the swing low at 9500, with a candle close below signaling a change in structure.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, October 22. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 22US stocks fell on Wednesday due to a combination of mixed corporate earnings (like Netflix) and renewed fears over US-China trade relations.A report suggested the Trump administration is planning new restrictions on exports to China covering everything from laptops to jet engines in response to China's limits on rare earth minerals, leading to an immediate drop in the stock market, especially for tech companies.This trade tension overshadowed President Trump's mixed signals about an upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.While some analysts believe the market decline is temporary and the overall earnings season has been good, they warn that the trade dispute will likely continue until the two leaders meet, and investors should not panic and change their long-term strategies based on one day of losses.The market drop was most painful for assets that are popular with individual, trend-following investors, specifically including precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and AI startups.The broader S&P 500 index ended the day just under 6,700, with major stocks like Netflix (-10%) and Texas Instruments (-5.6%) seeing steep declines. The day's trading also featured extreme volatility for companies like Beyond Meat, reminiscent of the intense swings seen in "meme stocks," the Russell 2000, fell by 1.5%. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Down 5.7%, Biggest Daily Drop Since 2020. What Next for Gold Prices?GBP/USD Slide Continues After UK Inflation Data. Is the Door Open for December BoE Rate Cut?USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver and Gold recovered late in the day and this was largely down to renewed concerns around a protracted US-China trade war.The Dollar Index failed to continue its advance finishing the day slightly lower with the Nasdaq and Dow Jones finishing the day around 0.70% and 0.80% down respectively.Oil prices rose by more than $2 a barrel after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said more U.S. sanctions targeting Russia would be announced.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 22 – Source: OANDA Labs The British pound was the weakest major currency on Wednesday after inflation unexpectedly stayed at 3.8%, which was lower than both economists and the Bank of England had predicted, causing Sterling to fall against the dollar.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen hit a one-week low as reports surfaced that the new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, is preparing a large economic stimulus package to help households deal with inflation.The US dollar index edged slightly lower after three days of gains, and the euro rose slightly after a planned summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases.The European session will be quiet as well with the highlight coming from Consumer Confidence data being released.The US session will also see a lack of notable data releases meaning tomorrow may see geopolitical developments dominate the agenda. Any comments on the US-China trade war as well as the promise by US officials regarding new sanctions on Russia may be the main catalyst for market moves tomorrow.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Renewing all-time highs by a whisker on Monday, at around $4,381 per troy ounce, gold has since experienced some significant downside, falling over 5.25% in yesterday’s session.In today’s session, gold has fallen further, down 2.18% at $4,035.Now in striking distance of the key psychological level of $4,000, having surpassed it for the first time in history only 10 days prior, what’s next for the yellow metal?Gold (XAU/USD): Key takeaways 22/10/2025 Falling in excess of 8.00% in the last two sessions alone, a spell of selling pressure has entered into precious metal markets following recent upsideGaining almost a ⅓ in value since late August, recent gold price action has become technically unsustainable, which has led to some profit-taking early into this week’s tradingOtherwise, and especially considering the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates in its meeting next week, the fundamental outlook for gold remains strong Read previous coverage: Gold (XAU/USD): Short-term bullish reversal triggered after 8% sell-offGold (XAU/USD): Retracement a matter of when, not if While most are familiar with the ebb and flow of the financial markets, it’s easy to get carried away…Generally, I tend to write an article on gold once a week, and today’s coverage marks the first time in over a month that I can say that gold bullion has not hit another all-time high.If I were writing this on Monday, perhaps this would be a different story, but as I speak, gold is tumbling lower with the key level of $4,000 now coming into serious contention.Benefiting from an endless supply of economic tailwinds in recent months, it’s easy to forget that markets don’t trend in straight lines and retracements towards the average are only a matter of time. zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), W, OANDA, TradingView, 22/10/2025 That time, it would seem, is now for gold markets, with prices down nigh on 9.00% from the highs.When combined with the impact of short-term long positions at high leverage, as expertly explained by Kelvin in previous commentary, you’ve got a recipe for massive downside, as seen in yesterday’s session.Case in point, yesterday’s price action represents gold’s worst daily performance since 2020.In a break from regularly scheduled programming, and since the recent downside is primarily technical selling, let’s take a look at the charts first and discuss some fundamental themes thereafter.Gold (XAU/USD): Technical Analysis 22/10/2025Gold (XAU/USD): Daily (D1) chart analysis: zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD), D1, OANDA, TradingView, 22/10/2025 Renewing all-time highs on Monday at $4,381, recent price action has broken the existing trend line to the downside, suggesting the current bull run is out of steam - at least for now.According to my own analysis, one of the following two scenarios will play out in the coming days and weeks: 1. Gold price action will form a base, consolidate, and stage another leg higher, aiming to overcome resistance held at ~$4,242. Gold price action will continue downward sharply, with a move under $4,000 offering further downside to ~$3,889 Switching to technical indicators, Stochastics has consistently rated the gold price as overbought for some time, until recent downside.While no one can say how high is too high for gold pricing, the very notion of overbought and oversold helps illustrate that gold was due for a retracement for some time. It cannot be ignored that gold is currently up ~54.09% to date and remains on track for its best yearly performance in history - some food for thought.The million-dollar question, however, is whether recent price action represents a healthy correction as part of standard price action or a broad-scale change in trend. Price targets and support/resistance levels: Price target 1: Previous area of support: $4,240Price target 2: All-time highs: $4,381Support 1: Trendline: $4,115 (broken)Support 2: Psychological level: $4,000Support 3: Previous area of support: $3,976Support 4: Fib level: $3,889 Read more coverage from MarketPulse: U.S. Budget Stalemate Deepens as Partial Government Shutdown Drags OnGold (XAU/USD): Fundamental Analysis 22/10/2025 To finish, and since fundamentals remain relatively unchanged, let’s do a quickfire round of economic themes currently at play in precious metal markets. Easing US-China tensions: Albeit somewhat late to the gold rally party, the renewed trade tensions between the US and China offered further encouragement for gold pricing. More recently, however, tensions have eased, with Trump calling the current standoff “unsustainable” during a media interview and agreeing to a meeting with President Xi Jinping. If nothing else, easing trade tensions removes a significant tailwind to gold upside - in part explaining recent selling pressure. Ongoing government shutdown: Part of the geopolitical furniture at this point, the US government remains subject to shutdowns due to disagreements over sovereign funding. In a nutshell, the longer the shutdown continues, not only does damage to the American economy increase exponentially, but also the safe-haven premium for precious metals. zoom_out_map CME FedWatch, 22/10/2025 Federal Reserve rate cuts ‘nailed-on’: As things stand, markets are more confident than ever that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in their decision next week. As a non-yielding asset, and considering how lower rates will affect bond yields, any notion of lower rates, whether in the immediate or priced in, can be regarded as gold positive. Continue reading more MarketPulse coverage: GBP/USD Slide Continues After UK Inflation Data. Is the Door Open for December BoE Rate Cut? Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The U.S. government shutdown, now over three weeks old, shows no sign of resolution as Republicans and Democrats remain deadlockedEconomic impact remains limited, reducing GDP by about 0.3 percentage points so far, though risks rise with each passing week.Key federal programs like WIC and SNAP could run out of funds by late October or early November.Historically, short shutdowns have had minimal impact on stock markets; major indices remain stable amid strong fundamentals.Political Deadlock Intensifies More than three weeks after the partial shutdown of federal institutions began on October 1, Washington remains mired in political gridlock. Republicans and Democrats have yet to find common ground, with the Senate on Monday rejecting for the eleventh time a stopgap funding bill that would have temporarily reopened the government. As a result, the federal administration will stay partially paralyzed for at least several more days.Market observers are increasingly betting that the impasse could extend into November, potentially making it one of the longest shutdowns in over half a century. Most government statistical agencies have halted data releases, with the notable exception of Friday’s September CPI report — essential for calculating adjustments to Social Security benefits.Mounting Political and Social Pressure As the shutdown drags into its third week, pressure on Congress is steadily building — from both the public and within federal institutions themselves. Each day without a funding deal adds to the political toll for both parties while deepening uncertainty for millions of Americans whose livelihoods or benefits depend on federal programs. With key deadlines approaching at the end of October, the sense of urgency in Washington is intensifying.The next scheduled payday for federal employees falls on October 24. If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement by then, thousands of government workers will again go without pay. A week later, on October 31, the military faces its own payroll deadline — a payment last met only through a controversial reallocation of Department of Defense funds. Even greater pressure will mount on November 1, when open enrollment begins for ObamaCare health insurance programs that cover roughly 24 million Americans. Without renewed federal subsidies, premiums could jump by 75 to 100 percent, imposing a heavy burden on households already strained by elevated living costs.For now, however, both parties remain firmly entrenched. Polls indicate that Americans largely blame both sides equally, reducing the political incentive for compromise. President Trump has so far refrained from direct involvement in negotiations — a factor that only complicates efforts to end the stalemate.Economic Impact Remains Contained — For Now Analysts estimate that each week of the shutdown trims GDP growth by about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, implying a cumulative drag of roughly 0.3 percentage points so far. Yet the broader U.S. economy remains resilient: the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model still forecasts a 3.9% expansion in the third quarter. Since most federal workers eventually receive back pay, the overall macroeconomic damage has so far been limited.Rising Risks as the Shutdown Persists If the impasse continues, however, the effects on consumer confidence and business sentiment will become increasingly pronounced. By November, the strain could intensify sharply. The WIC program — which provides nutritional support for about 7 million women, infants, and children — is projected to run out of funds, while the SNAP food assistance program could exhaust its financing by the end of October, jeopardizing aid for over 40 million Americans.For now, the shutdown’s economic disruptions remain moderate. But with each passing week, the risks mount — and if no deal is reached by early November, escalating social and political pressure will likely leave lawmakers with little choice but to compromiseImpact on Financial Markets - Dow Jones, SP500, Nasdaq Composite If the U.S. government shutdown — that is, the suspension of federal funding — lasts longer, the major Wall Street indices such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite could react in different ways.What History ShowsFrom a historical perspective, short government shutdowns have had only a limited impact on the broader U.S. stock market. According to various analyses, during shutdown periods the S&P 500 has gained an average of about 4.4%, and in most cases, stock prices have remained positive even three to six months after the shutdown ended.Investors tend to “care more about fundamentals than politics” — markets focus primarily on corporate earnings, Federal Reserve decisions, and economic growth prospects, rather than on the budget standoff itself.This means that a short shutdown is unlikely to trigger a dramatic sell-off in the major indices. However, there is still a certain degree of risk (in my view, it remains rather limited) that a prolonged shutdown could lead to a broader correction on Wall Street. At this point, though, investors are behaving in a very predictable, textbook way — they are using every dip as an opportunity to take long positions and participate in the ongoing strong bull market on the stock exchange. zoom_out_map Chart of the CFD contract based on the S&P 500 index, daily data, source: TradingView S&P 500 Approaches Record Highs Again After Rapid Sentiment Rebound The S&P 500 index is currently experiencing another upward move, and we may soon witness an attempt to break through its historical highs. The recent, somewhat sharper decline only temporarily pushed the index below the lower boundary of its rising channel, marking local lows at horizontal support around 6,500 points.A swift improvement in market sentiment turned the recent sell-off into a good opportunity to take long positions. From a technical perspective, it is now important to observe how the price behaves near the all-time high (ATH) level. If we see another round of profit-taking, a double top formation could emerge on the chart, which might serve as an early indication of a deeper and more prolonged downward correction. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 21US stock markets closed with mixed results on Tuesday, despite a flow of positive corporate earnings.The Dow Jones index finished with a gain, driven by solid earnings from industrial companies like General Motors, GE Aerospace, and 3M. However, the S&P 500 index ended the day mostly unchanged, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed slightly lower due to weakness in major growth and microchip stocks.General Motors GM.N lifted its forecast and tempered its anticipated tariff hit. The automaker's shares jumped 14.9%.Coca-ColaKO.N shares gained 4.1% after solid consumer demand drove its better-than-expected results, while diversified manufacturer 3M MMM.N advanced 7.7% after hiking its full-year forecast, bolstered by its focus on higher margin products and cost controls.After the market closed, Netflix stock dropped 5.8% in after-hours trading because the streaming company announced profits that were lower than analysts had expected.Overall, the third-quarter earnings season has started well, with 87% of reporting S&P 500 companies beating Wall Street profit forecasts. Yet, because stock prices are already near record highs and are valued expensively, investors are highly selective. Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Price Down 5.7%, Biggest Daily Drop Since 2020. What Next for Gold Prices?Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Why Record Deliveries Still Mean a Profit Margin SqueezeUSD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView A massive selloff occurred in precious metals, with gold and silver experiencing their sharpest one-day price drop in years, as investors worried that the recent record rally was unsustainable.This sharp decline was caused by several converging factors such as profit taking, easing haven-demand and US Dollar strength.As investors moved money back to safer, non-commodity assets, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 3.96%. The cryptocurrency Bitcoin also saw its value fluctuate during this period of renewed risk aversion.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 21 – Source: OANDA Labs The US dollar gained strength on Tuesday, hitting a six-day high, as the Japanese yen weakened significantly following its change in political leadership.he yen slid by 0.76% against the dollar, reaching its lowest level since October 14th. This decline was driven by the election of the pro-stimulus Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, as investors expect her government to prioritize high spending and loose monetary policy, which is negative for the currency. The yen also fell against the euro and the British pound.The US dollar index rose 0.312% because of the yen’s weakness. The euro fell slightly by 0.3% against the stronger dollar, despite recent easing of political tensions in France.The British pound (sterling) was down against the dollar, even though new data showed that the UK's government borrowing for the first half of the financial year was the highest since the pandemic. Investors believe this bad news is already factored into the price, expecting a tough budget next month.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases.We do have some medium impact data releases from Japan with import and export numbers being released.Attention will be on the European session tomorrow where we will get UK CPI and PPI data. This will be followed by speeches from ECB policymaker De Guindos and President Christine Lagarde.The US session remains light with earnings releases and a few Fed policymakers speaking.Tesla will be the main earnings release after the market close tomorrow and could have implications for Nasdaq 100 as well.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Why Record Deliveries Still Mean a Profit Margin SqueezeGold prices saw a sharp decline on Tuesday, on track for their steepest daily drop in five years, as investors sold the precious metal.A stronger US dollar and the decision by traders to take profits caused the price to fall significantly. This was compounded by US President Trump who softened his stance regarding a deal with China, reassuring the public that everything would "be fine" and that the US wanted to "help China, not hurt it." This slight shift in tone offered some relief to nervous markets and weighed on safe haven appeal. Prices scaled an all-time peak of $4,381.21 on Monday with dips being bought aggressively over the past week. We have seen some volatile pullbacks in that timeframe whenever a fresh high has been printed which could have been a sign of some nerves given the precious metals impressive rally in 2025.Some of the hesitation and the pullback today may be attributed to profit taking coupled with optimism around a US-China deal. There is also a possibility that market participants may want to unwind some positions ahead of the US inflation data release on Friday.Analysts at Citi said in a note they expect an end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, as well as US-China trade deal announcements, which could further lead to improved sentiment and potentially weigh on Gold prices.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, Gold did print a double top this morning on the four-hour timeframe with a break below the neckline occurring as well.Now looking at the potential target prices based on the rules of a double top pattern and the price would be around the $4020/oz mark.This suggests that Gold's fall may not be over and further downside could materialize in the days ahead.We could get two scenarios for Gold prices next move. The first one could be a move higher after today's fall which could retest the neckline break around the $4220/oz mark.Now a rejection at this level could be the start of the next leg to the downside which could see price reach the pattern completion around the $4020 mark.The second scenario may see Gold bulls fail to push prices higher and thus we could see prices continue to decline immediately toward the $4020/oz target without any pullback.At this stage both scenarios remain viable and price action on the one-hour and 15-minute charts may be monitored for clues.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, October 21, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 76% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: USD/CAD Price Outlook: Consolidation Above Key 1.4000 Handle. What Next for the Loonie?Tesla’s TSLA third-quarter 2025 financial results presents a challenging picture for market participants. On the one hand the company sold a record number of cars but it likely came at the expense of profit.What to Expect? Tesla achieved its highest-ever vehicle deliveries and energy sales in the third quarter. However, analysts expect that to show a drop in profit per share (EPS) of about 25% (from $0.72 last year down to around $0.53-$0.55 this year), despite a small increase in revenue (around 4% to 6%). This means sales grew through aggressively cutting prices, which hurt the company's profit quality.Looking at the earnings release, the stock's current price is very high and trades well above the average analyst price target of around $365. This means the stock's value may depend less on these actual car sales and profit numbers and much more on investor belief in the company's ambitious, long-term plans for AI, self-driving cars, and robotics. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, TradingKey Q3 2025 Operational Performance: The Baseline and the Cliff Edge Vehicle VolumeTesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles in the third quarter, which was more than it produced. This means the company used up its stored inventory to hit that number.This record was largely due to a short-term boost: many buyers rushed to finalize purchases before the $7,500 federal electric vehicle (EV) tax credit expired at the end of September. This created a temporary surge by pulling sales forward, which almost guarantees a noticeable slowdown in vehicle demand during the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026.Therefore, what management says about future sales targets is more important than the past record numbers.Energy Segment StrengthThe good news comes from Tesla's Energy segment, which acts as a stable counter-balance.This segment also hit a record, deploying 12.5 GWh of battery storage, driven by high demand from the booming AI industry and its need for power-hungry data centers. This growing, high-margin energy business is expected to slightly increase the company's overall profit margin, helping to lessen the negative effect of the price cuts in the car business.Financial Consensus and Sensitivity Analysis: The Margin Squeeze The most critical figure investors will scrutinize is the Automotive Gross Margin (excluding regulatory credits).Analysts expect the profit margin on cars (Automotive Gross Margin) to be around 16.5% to 17.0%, which is less than half of what it was at its peak in 2021. This shows that the record number of cars sold were achieved through aggressive price cuts.Furthermore, the small amount of high-profit revenue Tesla gets from selling regulatory credits to other automakers is expected to disappear completely, making strong core car profitability even more critical. If the margin falls below 16.5%, it suggests that the cost of making the cars is dangerously high.One of the main reasons Tesla’s stock price is so high is because market participants are betting heavily on its future in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics, not its current car profits.Market participants need to see concrete, believable updates on the launch of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the Robotaxi/Cybercab service. If management fails to give solid timelines for these AI initiatives, the stock's high price premium could quickly collapse, as market participants have already priced in a lot of success in this area.A major non-business risk is the controversial $1 trillion pay package proposed for CEO Elon Musk. Influential shareholder advisors have asked investors to reject the "astronomical" package.This is a problem because Musk has warned he might take key AI projects outside of Tesla if his ownership stake isn't increased. This creates a risk that the essential AI strategy, the primary reason the stock is valued so highly, could be compromised by a failure in corporate leadership.Potential Implications for the Tesla Share Price The Q3 2025 earnings report is expected to be a major catalyst, with options pricing implying high volatility: a potential stock move of around 7.44% to 8.53%.If the news is good: meaning profits (margins) are better than expected, or there are convincing updates on the Robotaxi plans, the stock price could jump and challenge its previous record high of $488.If the news is bad: meaning profits or the forecast for the next quarter are disappointing (especially due to the expired tax credit), the stock is likely to fall quickly. Given that the stock is currently trading about 17% higher than what most analysts think it's actually worth (the $365 consensus), any bad news could rapidly push the price down to that lower, more realistic value.Tesla TSLA Daily Chart, October 21, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Prints Fresh All-Time Highs Global stock markets continued to rally on Tuesday, with Asian shares and Japan's main index hitting new record highs, as trade tensions eased and investors grew confident about future interest rate cuts.The regional stock index for Asia surpassed its previous peak, and a global index is also poised for a new high.Japanese stocks soared, with the key Nikkei 225 Index closing 0.3% higher at an unprecedented 49,316.06. This rally was driven by the confirmation that pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi won a crucial parliamentary vote to become the next Prime Minister, which investors see as a signal for continued loose money policies.The yen weakened, while Japanese government bonds (JGBs) strengthened, reflecting expectations of increased government spending under Takaichi's leadership. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Chinese stocks also continued to gain as investors chose to overlook recent data showing that the country's economic growth has slowed to its slowest level in a year.UK Public Sector Borrowing Below Forecasts UK public sector net borrowing (excluding public sector banks) widened to £20.2 billion in September 2025 from £18.6 billion in the same month last year, but slightly below market expectations of £20.5 billion. This was the highest September borrowing since 2020 zoom_out_map Source: ONS It was also the second-highest year-to-date borrowing since records began in 1993, following the pandemic period. Public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, stood at 95.3% of GDP.European Session - Stocks Edge Higher as Sentiment Improves European stocks edged slightly higher on Tuesday, building on a strong Monday, with investors focusing on company news and the possibility of easing trade tensions.The main STOXX 600 index rose 0.1%. Sector performance was mixed, with banks and aerospace & defense stocks seeing modest gains, while healthcare and technology saw small dips.Swedish lockmaker Assa Abloy jumped 3.4% after reporting better-than-expected profits. French benefit card provider Edenred surged 10.9% on strong sales. HSBC rose 1.7% after naming a new CEO for its U.K. business.To prevent an escalation of tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to resume trade negotiations.On the FX front, the US dollar strengthened slightly on Tuesday, while the Japanese yen weakened following political news.The dollar index rose 0.16%.The Japanese yen was the weakest currency, falling 0.4% against the dollar, which traded at 151.38 yen. This decline happened after the market focused on the election of pro-stimulus hardliner Sanae Takaichi as Japan's next prime minister, which suggests interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan may be delayed. The yen also struggled against the euro and British pound, which both gained against it.The Australian dollar fell slightly by 0.21%. Meanwhile, the onshore Chinese yuan firmed up, or gained slightly, after the country's central bank set the official daily trading range at the strongest level seen in a year.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped for the second day in a row on Tuesday, pressured by concerns about global oversupply and the risk that the trade dispute between the US and China will weaken energy demand.The international benchmark, Brent crude, fell by 0.49% to $60.71 a barrel. The US benchmark, WTI, also slipped by about 0.5% for both its expiring November contract and the more actively traded December contract, leaving WTI futures at $56.71. Prices continue to be weighed down by reports from the International Energy Agency predicting a growing supply glut in 2026.Gold prices dropped slightly on Tuesday, as the US dollar gained strength and investors sold off some of their holdings to lock in profits after a massive rally.The day before, gold had hit a fresh record high due to strong investor demand, which was driven by two main factors: expectations that the US Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon, and high demand for gold as a safe investment during uncertain times (like the ongoing government shutdown and trade fears).Spot Gold has fallen as much as 2.3% to trade at $4254/oz at the time of writing.Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Netflix (NFLX) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Decoding Netflix's Shift to Profitability-Driven Growth (ARM)EUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China. Markets do seem more optimistic at the start of this week that a deal could be reached and we are seeing this in early European trade.Ahead of the US session markets will brace for the continuation of US earnings releases with some companies such as General Motors, Verizon and Coca-Cola among other reporting ahead of the market open.The US session remains light with the highlight coming from Canada with the release of Canadian inflation data as well as a speech by Fed policymaker Waller.Netflix will be the main earnings release after the market close tomorrow and could have implications for Nasdaq 100 as well.For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions Simmer zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken back above the 200-day MA but is flirting with the idea of a pullback, currently trading below the 200-day MA.A four-hour candle close below the 200-day MA could lead to move lower toward support at 9357 and a retest of the 100-day MA at 9344.If the FTSE is able to maintain the bullish momentum from yesterday, the next key area of resistance rests at 9500 before the 9587 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 21. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 20US and global stocks rose sharply on Monday, driven by optimistic investor sentiment as they look forward to a week packed with earnings reports from major American companies.All three major US indexes, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq, gained more than 1%. The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%. Loop Capital, the latest business to cite strong iPhone demand patterns, raised Apple's shares to buy, helping the company set its first record in 2025. A barometer of technology megacaps rose 1.6%. The Russell 2000 index of small businesses rose 1.9%The mood among investors is very positive, despite two major risks: the US government shutdown is now in its 20th day, freezing the release of most official economic data; and there are ongoing worries about credit quality in the regional banking sector, which some experts believe could cool down the overall stock market.This week, investor focus will be on reports from giants like Tesla, Netflix, IBM, Procter & Gamble, and Coca-Cola. Traders are betting that these large companies will deliver strong results, which helped push a global stock index (MSCI's gauge) up by 1.25% for the day.Furthermore, investors are closely watching for any cues from the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks and the delayed U.S. inflation report, which is finally expected to be released this Friday. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Netflix (NFLX) Q3 2025 Earnings Preview: Decoding Netflix's Shift to Profitability-Driven Growth (ARM)Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin and Gold were the standout performers on the day with both instruments recording gains north of 2%.Gold in particular printed a fresh all-time just above the $4380/oz handle.The Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones recorded a positive start to the week with both indexes rising north of 1%.The US 10Y bond yield struggled sliding just shy of the 1% mark on the day.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 20 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar saw a small gain on Monday with the overall dollar index rising slightly by 0.053% but remains near the low point it hit on Friday.Against the Japanese yen, the dollar edged up 0.08%. The euro slipped slightly, dropping 0.06%.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar saw the biggest movement, rising 0.48%, as traders cheered new data showing that China's economy (Australia's biggest trade partner) is holding up reasonably well despite U.S. tariffs.A look at Economic data releasing through tonight and tomorrow's session zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Asian session will be a quiet one in terms of data releases.Attention will be on the European session tomorrow where we will get speeches from a few ECB policymakers as well as President Christine Lagarde.Ahead of the US session markets will brace for the continuation of US earnings releases with some companies such as General Motors, Verizon and Coca-Cola among other reporting ahead of the market open.The US session remains light with the highlight coming from Canada with the release of Canadian inflation data as well as a speech by Fed policymaker Waller.Netflix will be the main earnings release after the market close tomorrow and could have implications for Nasdaq 100 as well.Safe Trades!Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions SimmerNetflix, Inc. (NFLX) is scheduled to release its third-quarter 2025 earnings report after the market close on October 21, 2025. This reporting period is widely regarded as a key marker in the company’s strategic shift from a volume-based (subscriber count) growth model to a profitability-based model driven by Average Revenue Per Member (ARM) acceleration.Market participants attention has fundamentally transitioned away from the headline subscriber figures which Netflix is ceasing to report quarterly in 2025 toward metrics detailing the efficiency of monetization efforts.What to Expect? Market experts believe that Netflix will meet or slightly beat its own financial goals, showing it is running its business very well.Revenue: The company expects to bring in $11.526 billion in revenue, which would be about 17% more than last year.Profit (EPS): Netflix's official forecast for profit per share ($6.87) is slightly lower than what analysts expect (who predict between $6.89 and $6.97). However, even the company's own target represents a very strong 27.6% jump in profit compared to last year.The expectation of such strong EPS growth is predicated on improved operating leverage. Consensus predicts the operating margin will climb to 31.5% in Q3 , fueled by high-margin revenue streams. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG, TradingKey Key Focus Areas: Monetization Over Membership The primary narrative for Q3 2025 centers on the effectiveness of three core catalysts that accelerate ARM: paid sharing conversion, the expansion of the advertising tier, and selective price increases. The success of these initiatives establishes a durable competitive advantage, as they generate revenue at very high incremental margins.The Paid Sharing Dividend and Ad-Tier GrowthThe crackdown on password sharing proved super successful, therefore it’s become a funnel that boosts paid‑sharing dividend and lifts ad‑tier growth.Since it began, Netflix added roughly 50 million new users: way beyond its own forecasts. Therefore, many price‑sensitive former password sharers opted for the Ad‑Tier service. How do Netflix do it? Turn the no‑pay users into paying ones, that brings the numbers needed to grow the ad business.By 2025, ad tier revenue's expected to double; therefore full‑year outlook hits about $1.1 billion. The expansion of the in-house ad-tech platform earlier in 2025 is vital, as internal management of advertising inventory and capabilities enables greater price realization (CPM) and better control over targeting, maximizing the incremental margins derived from this new revenue source.Therefore investors must keep tabs on profit within the well‑established market. It’s a market that covers both the US and Canada, which they call UCAN. Since price hikes began and paid sharing kicked in early this year, UCAN revenue must report a 15 % rise to definitively confirm the efficacy of Netflix's pricing power and monetization strategy in its highest-value region.Content and Margin VolatilityAlthough financial results (like revenue) look good, the key to Netflix's future success lies in its content and how it manages costs.The third quarter was packed with huge hits, like "Squid Game" Season 3 and the strategically released "Wednesday" Season 2, which are crucial for keeping subscribers.The move into live events, such as big boxing matches, is also key to attracting advertisers with content that viewers cannot skip.However, funding all this major new content in the second half of 2025 creates a financial risk. Management has warned that operating margins (profitability) will be lower in the second half of the year because of high spending on content and advertising.Therefore, market participants will be focused intensely on Netflix's forecast for the next quarter (Q4 2025), specifically looking at how the company discusses the timing of those costs, as this could cause the stock price to become volatile, even if the Q3 profits look strong.Potential Implications for Netflix Share Price For Netflix, the stock is currently valued so high that its earnings report has to be perfect to avoid a selloff.The company's stock is trading at a very expensive level (a P/E ratio of 47.2x), meaning investors have already priced in the expected strong profit growth (over 31% this year). The major risk is that analysts disagree sharply: some are very optimistic, but others warn the price is far too high (as low as $750 per share) unless the company can deliver unbelievably fast sales growth.To go up (Upside Rally): Netflix must do two things: beat the profit forecast (above $6.97 per share) and, more importantly, give a highly convincing forecast for the next quarter (Q4) that removes the worries about lower profit margins in the second half of the year. Showing a clear, fast path to reaching its long-term ad revenue goal is also critical.To go down (Downside Correction): Because the stock is priced for perfection, even a small profit beat, if paired with a vague or cautious forecast about future margins, will likely cause investors to sell their shares and take profits. Investors are focused entirely on getting qualitative assurance about the company’s implied profitability for 2026.In short, even though the company has strong momentum from its new strategies (paid sharing and the ad tier), many new investors are holding back because the stock is too expensive and the risk of failure is too high.Netflix Daily Chart, October 20, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rises 3.4% Most Read: Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Asian stock markets surged to record highs on Monday, fueled by a renewed sense of optimism over cooling trade tensions and positive political news from Japan.The broad regional stock index climbed 1.7%, with markets anticipating gains in the US and Europe. Japan's stock market soared to a new record high after the announcement of a coalition deal that is expected to lead to higher government spending.The deal included specific plans, such as a 10% reduction in the number of lawmakers. This anticipation of pro-stimulus policies boosted investor confidence, weakening the yen and causing the blue-chip Nikkei share index to climb by 3.4% at the closeEven with data released today showing that Chinese economic growth has slowed to its lowest pace in a year, investors in Chinese stocks largely overlooked the deceleration, focusing instead on the hope for trade de-escalation between the US and China.China Economy Remains Resilient China's economy showed better-than-expected growth in the third quarter, signaling that the government is confident in achieving its economic goals.Official data released on Monday indicated that the economy grew by 1.1% compared to the previous quarter, which was better than expected. Factory production (industrial output) also performed strongly, rising 6.5%.Although the overall annual growth rate of 4.8% was the slowest seen in a year, this result means China is still on track to meet its official annual growth target of around 5%. By releasing these figures,Beijing is sending a clear message that its current policies are effective and the country is capable of reaching its major economic development goals.European Session - European Stocks Led Higher by Bank, Defense Stocks European stocks opened strongly on Monday, gaining nearly 1%, led by a significant rebound in the banking and defense sectors.The main STOXX 600 index for Europe rose by 0.9%. Banks, which had suffered a 2.5% drop on Friday due to concerns about loan problems at US regional lenders, saw a strong bounce back, rising 1.6%. Similarly, the aerospace and defense sector climbed 2.1%, recovering from a fall triggered by news of a planned peace summit for the war in Ukraine.In company news:Gucci owner Kering jumped 4.2% after agreeing to sell its beauty business to L'Oreal.Cement maker Holcim rose 1.4% after announcing it would acquire German company Xella.Swedish defense firm Saab gained 3.1% after securing a contract for artillery radar in Spain.However, French car parts supplier Forvia lost 6% after reporting a drop in its third-quarter sales.The positive market sentiment occurred despite data showing that German producer prices (a measure of wholesale inflation) fell more than expected in September.On the FX front, the Australian dollar rose on Monday, boosted by positive signals from its top trading partner, China.The Japanese yen initially weakened against the dollar, which climbed as much as 0.4% to 151.20, because investors were confident that pro-stimulus candidate Sanae Takaichi would become Japan's next prime minister after securing key political support.However, this weakness quickly faded after a central bank official, Hajime Takata, reiterated his call to raise interest rates, which strengthened the yen.Elsewhere, the Australian dollar gained 0.3%, the euro saw a small gain of 0.1%, while the British pound edged down 0.1%.China's currency, the yuan, remained largely unchanged.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Monday, extending their recent losses, as investors worried about a global oversupply of oil and the threat of weaker demand due to trade tensions and a slowing economy.The international benchmark, Brent crude futures, fell by 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel, while US crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures, dropped by 0.96% to $56.99. Both contracts erased gains from Friday and continued a pattern of decline, having dropped more than 2% last week for their third straight weekly loss. This persistent downturn is partly fueled by forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicting a growing surplus of oil supply in 2026.Oil prices dropped again on Monday, continuing their third straight weekly decline, as worries about a huge global oversupply of oil combined with lower demand forecasts due to US-China trade friction.International benchmark Brent crude fell by 0.86% to $60.76 a barrel, and US crude, WTI, dropped by 0.96% to $56.99, erasing gains from Friday.Gold prices edged slightly higher on Monday, maintaining their record-high levels, while silver attempted a small recovery after a sharp drop on Friday.Spot gold rose 0.1% to $4,254.59 per ounce, and US gold futures climbed 1.3%. Silver prices rose 0.2%, recovering slightly after plunging 4.4% on Friday, the same day it had hit a new record high of $54.47.Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to all-time highs of $4218 on trade tremors and rate cut expectations - Potential targets and price forecastEUR/JPY Forecast: Support at 175.00 Holds the Key to Immediate Bullish ContinuationEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The most important issue for financial markets right now is the unstable relationship between the US and China, particularly ahead of two critical dates.Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet around October 29-31 at the APEC summit in Korea, just before the November 10th deadline when US tariffs on Chinese goods are set to jump significantly if no agreement is reached.Markets do appear more upbeat at the start of this week that a deal may be reached between the US and China.Later in the day markets will brace for Canadian PPI data and a few ECB policymakers speaking which could stoke some volatility.For more information on the week ahead, read Markets Weekly Outlook - Tesla, Netflix Earnings, US CPI and China's Five-Year Plan in Focus as US-China Tensions Simmer zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has broken back above the 200-day MA on Friday with the index eyeing a potential test of the 100-day MA at 9433.A break above the 100-day MA is needed if the FTSE is to continue its advance today.The RSI period-14 is hovering just below the 50 level which says that bearish momentum is still in play.A break above could be a sign that momentum is shifting to the bulls.Immediate support rests at 9357 before the 9338 and 9285 handles come into focus.Immediate resistance rests at 9433 before the 9500 and 9550 handles come into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review Another week has passed by and the US government shutdown continues. Despite this the week was still full of volatility as markets grappled with the ongoing US-China stalemate as well as concerns around the US banking sector later in the week.As a result safe havens continued to thrive with Gold prices soaring to near $4400/oz before falling around 2.7% on Friday. The drop in Gold came about as President Trump provided a sliver of hope on US-China relations saying "not sustainable" and that he would meet with Xi Jinping in South Korea in a few weeks.US equities enjoyed a mixed week and struggled on Thursday weighed down by Banking Stocks. US banks borrowed nearly $15 billion from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday and Thursday, the largest borrowing over a two-day period since the Covid-19 pandemic. Market participants were concerned about US credit markets as a result and whether that could affect valuations across markets.The selloff on Thursday rippled through Asia overnight and weighed on European stocks on Friday wiping out weekly gains.These concerns came about after major US banks reported stellar earnings earlier in the week.Despite the mixed week for US and global equity markets, equity funds attracted inflows for a fourth straight week through October 15, as dovish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced expectations that the central bank will cut interest rates at its meeting later this month.Across the globe, investors bought about $2.17 billion worth of stock funds this past week, a figure similar to the week before. This money mainly flowed into U.S. and Asian stock funds, which saw nearly $1 billion in inflows each.Conversely, European stock funds saw a significant outflow of $1.62 billion, ending a ten-week period of continuous buying. Within the market, interest in funds focused on specific sectors surged by nearly 50%, with the Technology and Healthcare sectors leading all investments. zoom_out_map Source: LSEG Next week the US reporting season heats up and could set the tone for global equity markets. After major banks reported this past week, next week will feature results from several major household names, including Tesla and Netflix which are among the most closely watched reports. We will also get reports from other big names like Procter & Gamble (P&G), Coca-Cola and aerospace giant RTX and tech veteran IBM.How has the US Dollar Performed? The U.S. dollar is finishing the week with losses against major global currencies.The overall dollar index, which tracks the US currency's value, is on track for a 0.44% weekly slide, its largest drop since late July despite a small gain of 0.26% on Friday.The dollar weakened against the safe-haven Swiss franc, falling 0.1% to its lowest level since mid-September.Meanwhile, the euro was set for its best weekly gain against the dollar in nine weeks, even though it dipped slightly by 0.22% on Friday.Finally, the dollar was flat against the Japanese yen, which is also on track to notch a weekly gain, and the British pound (sterling) was down slightly by 0.2% but still poised for a weekly gain.This week also saw rate cut expectations rise with market participants now pricing in around 51 bps of rate cuts through December 2025, up from around 44 bps earlier in the week.This is based on the LSEG data.The Week Ahead Next week will definitely be a busier one as we did have a bit of a data break this week. Obviously the US Government shutdown has hampered US data releases but there was also a lack of high impact data from around the world. .The week ahead brings a host of high impact data releases from around the globe including inflation data from the US, China and Canada. While we also have a host of Central Bank policymakers speaking.Let us take a look at some of the key data releases which could shake markets next week.Asia Pacific MarketsChina is facing a pivotal week that will set its economic direction for the next five years, even as new data is expected to confirm a recent slowdown.From Monday to Wednesday, the Fourth Plenum meetings will be held, with the main goal of discussing China's important 15th Five-Year Plan for the years 2026 to 2030. Key priorities that are expected to be highlighted include boosting consumer spending, driving technological innovation (especially in areas like AI and semiconductors to achieve self-reliance), and generally shifting toward "high-quality development" to secure long-term growth.Separately, critical economic data is due on Monday:Loan Prime Rates: The central bank is expected to keep these key interest rates unchanged.GDP and Property: Official data is likely to show China's third-quarter economic growth slowed substantially to around 4.5% for the year. Key monthly data on retail sales and factory output are also expected to show a deceleration. Additionally, data on property prices is expected to confirm the market is still weak, as the government has not yet announced any major new stimulus to turn the sector around.With the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision coming up on October 30th, two key pieces of economic data are highly important this week: trade and inflation figures.Japan's exports are expected to rebound and grow by 4.0% compared to a year ago, mainly because shipments of goods like cars and chip-making machinery are returning to normal following the recent 15% tariff deal with the US At the same time, imports are likely to decrease slightly by 0.5%, largely because global commodity prices are lower. Analysts expect exports to continue normalizing in the coming months due to the September trade agreement.The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.9% for September, with core prices likely remaining above 3.0%. The main reason inflation has slowed down recently is due to temporary factors, specifically government subsidies for energy and social welfare programs.Tariffs, Tariffs and More TariffsDue to the ongoing US government shutdown, there is a serious lack of clear information on how the economy is actually performing.The government's statistical agencies are closed, meaning key reports are delayed, and even when the government reopens, it will take weeks to properly collect and process the missing data.However, one important piece of information, the September inflation report (CPI) has been confirmed for release. This is not for the Federal Reserve's benefit (even though they need it for their October 29th meeting), but because the number is legally required to calculate the Social Security cost-of-living increase for 2026.Experts still expect the report to show a small rise in overall prices (0.4% for the month) and a modest increase in core prices (0.3%). Even if tariffs start making inflation more obvious, the Fed's biggest concern right now is the weakening job market, meaning a small rise in inflation will not stop them from making a planned quarter-point interest rate cut later this month. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken a three-day losing streak finding support at the 100-day MA on Friday.The daily candle closed as a hammer candle setting up the potential for further upside on Monday.If this level holds on Monday the DXY could continue its rise in the early part of next week. This will also depend on US-China developments.CPI data will be due on Friday though and market participants may be slightly hesitant to commit to any major moves ahead of the data release.This could potentially lead to some choppy price action in the early part of the week, something to consider.Immediate resistance rests at 99.57 before the psychological 100.00 handle comes into focus.Looking at support and a break below the 100-day MA could lead to a retest of the 97.70 or 96.90 support levels.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - October 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for October 17US stocks finished a nervous week on a high note, gaining ground as President Donald Trump's comments suggested trade tensions with China were easing and regional bank stocks bounced back.The S&P 500 index saw its best weekly gain since August after Trump said he was optimistic about reaching a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping at their upcoming meeting, calming fears of an escalating trade war.This positive sentiment was boosted by a rebound in regional bank stocks, which had plunged earlier in the week due to loan quality fears.Both Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp, the banks at the heart of the worry, rallied over 3.1% as bank executives quickly reassured investors and reported lower-than-expected provisions for loan losses in their latest earnings.As market confidence returned, traders moved money out of safe-haven assets: bonds, gold, and silver all fell, while bond yields rose from their recent lows. Despite the week's high volatility, investors poured $28.1 billion back into stock funds, pulling money out of cash funds.Separately, with the US government shutdown still blocking official data, one unofficial measure showed that applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, suggesting the job market may still be stable despite other signs of economic weakness. Oracle Corp. was a notable exception to the rally, dropping about 7% due to renewed concerns about its ability to meet the massive demand for its AI cloud services. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Outlook: Silver Price Consolidates Ahead of Next Move. Where to Next?A New Trade War Begun? U.S.–China Tensions Back in the SpotlightUS: Lack of Labor Market Data Due to Government Shutdown – Investors Seek Alternative IndicatorsCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, October 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView US stocks recovered with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way. The surprise of the day came from Gold which retreated to a daily low around $4190/oz before recovering to $4250/oz before the market close. The question now is whether the precious metal will be able to continue its rally next week?Bitcoin continues to edge its way lower as it struggles to regain bullish traction despite increasing rate cut bets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, October 15 – Source: OANDA Labs The U.S. dollar is set to record a weekly loss against major currencies.The dollar weakened against the safe-haven Swiss franc, falling to its lowest level since mid-September and heading for its biggest weekly decline since June.The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of others, is on track for a 0.43% weekly slide.Meanwhile, the euro is set for its strongest weekly performance against the dollar in nine weeks, despite a small drop on Friday.The Japanese yen saw its earlier gains fade after the Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, discussed the factors that could lead to an interest rate increase this month.A look at Economic data releasing early next week zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The start of next week will be a busy one in terms of data.Sunday night we have CPI data from New Zealand which could lead to some volatility in NZD pairs.This will be followed by a Chinese data dump with GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. All of which could have wider implications for currencies like the Australian Dollar and provide more insight into the Chinese economy.For more information on data releases next week, readFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.