It's been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news ahead of the ceasefire deadline on 22 April next week.In doing his part, US president Trump continues to fuel the optimism as he says the war will be over "very soon". And there are multiple reports about both sides looking for further progress in general. However, it's still a case of having to wait and see.For now, markets are definitely running with the narrative that good news will eventually come. The only question is when exactly will we see a material shift in the geopolitical landscape? Is it going to be in the next week? Or is it going to be in two to three months from now? There's a big difference there.Risk trades are holding on to hope that peace talks will succeed and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon enough. I can see the case of the former being pushed hard but on the latter, it is doubtful that we will get a big change to the status quo any time soon. And that is a big concern, with market players perhaps underestimating the impact of a prolonged disruption to the strait.S&P 500 futures are up another 0.2% today with European indices also holding modest gains on the session so far. That's another signal that risk sentiment continues to ignore the potential downside risks to the reality of the situation.As for major currencies, the dollar is steadier once again but not really doing all too much. EUR/USD keeps just below 1.1800 while USD/JPY sits just above 159.00 as we approach the final stages this week. Those levels are not too different from where we were in the past two days.If anything, it shows that currency traders are still holding some reservations and limiting their exposure. That as to not underestimate the potential for peace talks to fall apart.Looking to betting markets, we can also see the shift in optimism among the broader public and money players. The odds of a nuclear deal before 30 April has surged up to 44% now, after having been as low as 3% at the start of the month:However, even betting players are not really all too optimistic about the situation with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. They're only seeing 28% odds of traffic returning to normal in the strait before the end of the month:Those odds do jump up to roughly 65% for a timeline by the end of May and then 76% by the end of June. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver has been outperforming gold recently amid tailwinds like lower real yields, looser financial conditions and lower US dollar. The momentum and volatility have certainly not been the same since the late January’s crash. The key difference has been the Fed which has pivoted away from the dovish stance. Nonetheless, silver should remain supported amid the positive US-Iran deal expectations which should keep any downside limited. Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to collapse again, we might get a bigger pullback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the losses should remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might give silver another boost to extend the rally into new highs. For a much stronger rally though, silver would need the Fed to pivot back to a dovish stance.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver is continuing to slowly edge higher amid the positive US-Iran expectations. The natural target for the buyers is the major swing level at 96.35. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the swing level to position for a drop back into the 70.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 120.00 level next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the key 77.98 resistance opening the door for more upside. We have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 67.50 level.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, the recent consolidation above the 77.98 level might have formed a bullish flag. We can expect the buyers to step in around the lower bound of the pattern to keep pushing into new highs and increase the bullish bets on a break above the upper bound of the flag. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the lower bound of the flag to extend the pullback into the upward trendline targeting a break below it. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full speech hereIn her speech, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, assesses the current state of the global financial system against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shocks. She begins by acknowledging that while the system has shown remarkable resilience over the last six years, weathering a pandemic, wars, and energy crises, history teaches that financial stability is often undermined when optimism overrides caution. She credits much of this current stability to the structural reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis, particularly the increased capital and liquidity held by banks. However, she cautions that risk has not disappeared but has instead migrated into less transparent and less regulated areas.Breeden identifies three specific vulnerabilities that currently mirror the warning signs of past crises: the rapid growth and opacity of private markets, the high levels of leverage in government bond markets driven by hedge fund activity, and stretched asset valuations in sectors like artificial intelligence. She expresses concern that these private credit markets have not yet been tested by a major macroeconomic shock in a high-interest-rate environment. Furthermore, she notes that public debt is at post-war highs, which reduces the fiscal space for governments to respond to future disruptions. The combination of leverage, complexity, and concentration in these areas suggests that while the banking core is strong, the wider system remains fragile. She also adds that the conflict in the Middle East raises the odds that these vulnerabilities could crystallise at the same time.To address these shifting risks, Breeden outlines a strategy focused on system-wide surveillance rather than just monitoring individual institutions. This includes conducting stress tests on non-bank financial sectors and private markets to understand how shocks might propagate through the real economy. She also highlights the need for international cooperation and the development of new tools, such as the Contingent NBFI Repo Facility, which allows the central bank to provide liquidity directly to insurance companies and pension funds during market dysfunction. Ultimately, Breeden concludes that while the system is better prepared than in the past, the "echoes" of previous crises are present, and the Bank’s role is to ensure these emerging risks are not dismissed during periods of relative calm. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymore. The euro area imports roughly 60% of its energy requirements and as such, we will observe a big terms-of-trade shock in the data next month.For some context, the trade balance in the euro area typically keeps at a surplus but ran a massive deficit for a prolonged period of time in during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And this looks set to be a repeat of that.The massive widening in the energy deficit can be a big problem, especially if oil and gas prices keep higher for a sustained period of time. That will in turn weigh more heavily on the economic performance in the euro area region.So while the energy deficit widening is the main thing to watch out, there could be a secondary impact on manufacturing too. When energy prices surge higher, it will eventually see energy-intensive production become too expensive. And that will also narrow the trade surplus from the chemicals sector for example.For some backdrop, chemicals and related products have always been producing the biggest trade surplus margin for the region. In February, it recorded a surplus of €16.2 billion. Trouble, trouble. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices have been pulling back since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the market. The second round of talks is expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline. Trump mentioned today that they might have a meeting this weekend. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Moreover, Reuters reported yesterday that Iran could let ships sail freely through the Omani side ​of the Strait of Hormuz without risk of attacks under the proposals it has offered in talks with the US, providing a deal is ‌secured to prevent renewed conflict.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to collapse again, we might see a short-term rally in crude oil, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the upside could remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal is should increase the bearish momentum and might take WTI oil back to pre-war levels. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil is now trading below the key 93.00 support zone which now turned resistance. The breakout opened the door for a drop into the 78.00 support next. There’s not much more we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the rising channel and the 93.00 support zone amid US-Iran deal optimism and that has turned the bias more bearish. If we get another pullback into the 93.00 zone, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 78.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to pile in for a rally into the 105.00 level.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but a break below the recent low at 86.95 could see the bearish momentum increasing as more sellers pile in to target the 78.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Rate cuts by year-endFed: 10 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 75 bps (69% probability of no change at the next meeting)ECB: 54 bps (79% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 54 bps (78% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (85% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 33 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 16 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting)(You can find last week's market pricing here)We can see that the market pricing hasn't changed much since last week but the hawkish bets continue to get pared back slowly amid US-Iran deal optimism. Everything hinges on US-Iran negotiations now as that's going to influence future inflation and growth expectations. One thing that keeps being funny is the market pricing rate hikes for the SNB and rate cuts for the Fed. The latest BofA FMS survey showed that most investors expect the Fed to cut rates. The more timely labour market data like US jobless claims, haven't been pointing towards rate cuts at all, on the contrary, there's been a clear and strong improvement.The Fed has been missing on its target since 2021 and the end of the war might even boost economic activity. This might keep inflation higher for longer with the Fed eventually being forced to wait longer than expected or even hiking rates. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Even as the dollar has had its troubles in the past two weeks, USD/JPY continues to stay underpinned with the yen currency itself also unable to get off the floor.As the US-Iran conflict drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Japan remains one of the biggest losers in all of this. That as the economy relies heavily on oil imports from the Middle East. That's even leading to a push to release another 20 days' worth of oil reserves to try and alleviate the pressure on the situation.The yen has very much lost its allure as a safe haven considering the circumstances, and USD/JPY looks to want to push higher but not for some verbal intervention and warnings from Tokyo still.MUFG notes that this week's episode might just be another step closer towards actual intervention though. The firm says that:"Japan finance minister Katayama highlighted that she told G7 members at yesterday’s meetings that Japan is watching FX with a high sense of urgency. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not attend the meetings but Katayama stated that she had also discussed FX with him earlier in bilateral talks. It quickly follows on from comments yesterday in which she said that they “definitely need to calm markets” and agreed to stay in close contact with Bessent.The latest comments indicate a higher risk that Japan is moving closer to intervening directly to support the yen with USD/JPY still threatening to break above the 160.00 level. The yen has continued to underperform even as the US dollar has corrected sharply lower in recent weeks. The yen has been the second worst performing G10 currency since the US-Iran ceasefire was announced on 7th April."Even if the dollar is struggling, the yen is also in a very tough spot. I reckon if peace talks break down and the war looks set to extend further for another month or two, that would really put a number on the yen. And if so, that might be the straw that breaks the camel's back and prompt Tokyo to finally proceed with actual intervention.So, we'll see. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe bullish momentum in gold waned recently despite lots of tailwinds like lower real yields, looser financial conditions and lower US dollar. It’s certainly not been the same since the late January crash, and the major difference is that the Fed has pivoted away from the dovish stance.Nonetheless, gold should remain supported amid the positive US-Iran deal expectations which should keep any downside limited. Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to collapse again, we might get a bigger pullback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the losses should remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might give gold another boost to extend the rally into new highs. For a much stronger rally, gold would need the Fed to pivot back to a dovish stance.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is continuing to slowly edging higher as the bullish momentum waned. The natural target for the buyers is the downward trendline around the 5,000 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 5,400 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a trendline defining the bullish momentum. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the major upward trendline around the 4,100 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback into the upward trendline. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Italian and Eurozone trade balances which are not going to change anything for the ECB and won't be market-moving. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations. The news we've been getting have been mostly positive and just yesterday Israel and Lebanon began a 10-day ceasefire to allow for negotiations. Trump delivered some upbeat remarks yesterday and mentioned that a US-Iran meeting could happen over the weekend. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only highlight is Fed's Waller speech. He's been a "leading indicator" for Fed policy since 2021 and just recently started to put more emphasis on inflation given the energy shock and the resilient labour market. He still doesn't see the need for a rate hike and prefers to wait before restarting rate cuts later this year. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - BoE's Bailey (hawkish - voter)18:00 GMT/14:00 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.As things stand, trading sentiment is riding heavily on US-Iran developments. And for now, broader markets are holding on to a more optimistic take that there will be some positive headlines to come in the day(s) ahead. US president Trump continues to talk up hope in reaffirming that the war will end "very soon". Then again, we've been hearing that for the past three to four weeks already.Still, markets are running with the optimism with US equities in particular continuing to push higher.Despite the risk on mood though, the dollar has been holding steadier since trading yesterday. And that continues to be the case today as well, with traders holding some reservations about chasing a peace deal much further.Even if talks might show some progress, the main thing for markets remains that the Strait of Hormuz is in de facto closure.Oil prices are still on edge as such but have come off the boil since last week at least. However, it doesn't mean that the danger is over. The risk rally is keeping in a rather fragile state and if the status quo is prolonged, it will be tough to just rely on hope alone to get by down the road. So, keep that in mind.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 by an 11–1 vote. The decision was expected, but the message shook Wall Street: the Dow plunged more than 750 points after Chair Jerome Powell admitted the Fed had “not made as much progress on inflation as hoped” and called the economic effects of the Iran conflict “uncertain.” The updated projections painted a complicated picture. The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast to 2.4% and its inflation outlook to 2.7% on both headline and core PCE. The median dot plot maintained one rate cut for 2026 and one more in 2027, but seven of 19 officials now see no cuts at all this year, up from six in December. Governor Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, favoring a 25-basis-point cut — notably, Christopher Waller, who had also dissented in January, returned to the majority. Powell told reporters the Fed’s policy “is not on a preset course” and confirmed he would remain at the Fed at least through the DOJ investigation, serving as interim chair if Warsh is not confirmed by May 23. The backdrop was grim: 92,000 jobs lost in February, unemployment at 4.4%, Brent above $100 after the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and core PCE stuck at 3%. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research had pegged stagflation odds at 35%, calling the Iran conflict “the latest stress test of the U.S. economy’s resilience.” Goldman Sachs pushed its first-cut forecast to September, estimating each $10 rise in Brent trims GDP by 0.1 percentage point. Barclays projected just one reduction for the year. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the situation as “exactly the kind of stagflationary environment that’s as uncomfortable as any that faces a central bank.” While institutional strategists parsed the dot plot and Powell’s language, the sentiment among active market practitioners reflected a more immediate conclusion. Tyler White, a trader with nine years of experience and founder of a trading community of over 30,000 members (tradingwithtyler.com), said the March 18 outcome confirmed what he had been telling his community: the Fed is in a policy dead end with no exit in sight. White sees the current situation as fundamentally different from anything the Fed has dealt with in the recent past. In his view, the crises of the last decade each presented the central bank with a clear binary choice. In 2018, it was a rate pause followed by a reversal. During COVID, the playbook was emergency QE and zero rates. In 2022–2023, the answer was aggressive hikes to crush inflation. Each time, the direction became obvious once the shock materialized. “Right now it’s a dead end. Stagflation,” White said. “The Fed needs to support the economy and hold rates at the same time. And that’s exactly what we saw on March 18: the Fed restraining rates with one hand and running QE with the other. It looks like panic.” White argued that the dot plot reinforced this diagnosis rather than resolved it. The fact that seven members now favor zero cuts while others still project easing tells him the committee is fractured in a way it hasn’t been since the pandemic. He described it not as healthy disagreement but as the absence of a shared framework — a central bank that has lost its internal compass because the standard models no longer produce clear answers. The 750-point Dow sell-off, in White’s reading, was not an overreaction but the market correctly processing what Powell could not say outright. “Powell tried to sound measured, but the market heard what it needed to hear: there is no relief coming anytime soon. Seven members see zero cuts this year — that’s not consensus, that’s a central bank that doesn’t know where it’s going.” White was particularly focused on the political dynamics surrounding the decision. With Trump publicly pushing for rate cuts, the DOJ investigating Powell, and Kevin Warsh waiting for Senate confirmation, the Fed chair is operating under pressure that extends well beyond monetary policy. White noted that this makes oil the single most important variable — not just for markets, but for Powell’s personal ability to justify holding rates. “The White House will pile even more pressure on the Fed,” White said. “But as long as oil stays elevated, Powell has a legitimate argument to hold. That’s the one card he can play. The question is whether he’ll still be there to play it after May.” For traders, White’s conclusion was blunt: the era of directional conviction is over, at least until the geopolitical picture clarifies. He told his community that the correct approach is to abandon trend-following entirely and instead work the range — buying support, selling resistance, and capturing volatility in both directions rather than betting on a breakout that may not come for weeks. “The traders who tried to guess the direction on March 18 got whipsawed. The ones who played both sides of the range navigated it well,” White said. “This market rewards discipline and adaptability, not conviction. Until the Strait of Hormuz situation is resolved or the Fed gives a clear signal, we are in a volatility regime, not a trend regime.” As of the March 18 close, the S&P 500 fell to 6,625 — a new 2026 low. Gold held above $5,300, Brent topped $109 intraday. Recession probability on prediction markets reached 37%. The next FOMC meeting is May 6–7. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

On possible release of more emergency oil reserves, "we are not there yet"However, it is definitely under considerationWe should prepare ourselves for volatile markets for some timeIf Strait of Hormuz is not reopened, we must prepare for significantly higher energy pricesWe estimate it will take approximately two years for overall oil production to reach pre-war levels againThe push for use of electric vehicles will increase faster than previously anticipatedIt looks like Japan will have to act in an isolated manner to push for their next round of emergency oil reserves release. With prices looking much calmer in the past week or so, you can bet that the US and Trump won't have as much appetite to force the issue this time around.As for the other comments, Birol is pretty much just stating the obvious for the most part. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it doesn't mean that supply issues will immediately get resolved. As mentioned before, it will be a slow trickle at best and it will take many more months for key energy facilities to run back at full capacity.In other words, it will take a long time before things actually normalise and that is assuming the war comes to an end and the strait is open for business in a meaningful way.And if not, the market optimism we're seeing here could really run into big trouble down the road with there being no change to the status quo on the Strait of Hormuz especially.Sure, more positive talks and a deal of sorts may look play well on the optics. But when the hard data hits, nothing will change for markets and the global economy until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. That's the main thing still. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

China signals loose policy, boosts fiscal and tech investment pushICYMI: IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuelIndia ICYMI: RBI FX intervention intensifies, curbs refiners’ dollar buyingNZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge as political pressure builds - watch the kiwiPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8622 (vs. estimate at 6.8206)Singapore exports surge on AI demand, beating forecastsJapan officials' 'no comment' when asked if BoJ hike delay could trigger sharp yen fallTrump pump again - says war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon"Bank of Japan Governor Ueda "no comment" on declining mkt expectations for April rate hikeTrump pump - says it'll be great for Hezbollah if they act nice and wellG7 warns on war’s economic risks, signals action on inflation, supply chainsUnverified reports Tehran plans to begin “initial steps” toward Bab al-Mandab blockNZ food prices fall, spending slows as RBNZ maintains cautious stanceECRI: Markets underestimating global inflation upswing beyond oilRBA breaks ranks, will hike again, as global central banks stay sidelined: RBCU.S. to delay weapons deliveries to Europe as Iran war strains stockpilesinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Israel agrees to ceasefire in LebanonIran stresses need for full Israeli withdrawal from southern LebanonAt a glance:Mixed geopolitical signals: ceasefire talk offsets escalation risks (Bab al-Mandab threat unverified) Markets lean toward optimism on Trump ceasefire tone despite ongoing uncertainty BoJ flags oil-driven stagflation risk, keeps policy flexible and accommodative China reinforces easing bias and fiscal support; NZ political noise adds mild uncertainty FX subdued; equities softer as traders trim risk into weekendGeopoliticsGeopolitical headlines remained mixed, with tentative signs of de-escalation offset by lingering risks to key shipping routes.Iranian officials reiterated the need for a full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, while unverified reports suggested Tehran could begin “initial steps” toward blocking the Bab al-Mandab Strait from midday tomorrow. That latter development, if confirmed, would represent a significant escalation risk for global trade and energy flows, though markets treated it cautiously given the lack of verification.On the more constructive side, sentiment was supported by a series of optimistic remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump. He suggested the conflict could end “pretty soon” and pointed to positive developments around Lebanon, including ceasefire-related progress and the possibility of U.S.-Iran engagement over the weekend. While similar comments have been made repeatedly in recent weeks, markets appear increasingly willing to lean into the positive narrative.Overall, the tone remains fragile, with de-escalation hopes balancing against persistent tail risks.Central banks / macroCentral bank commentary reflected the growing complexity of the macro backdrop, particularly the inflation-growth trade-off stemming from higher energy prices.Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasised that rising oil prices are acting as a drag on Japan’s growth while simultaneously pushing up inflation, highlighting a classic supply shock dilemma. He reiterated that monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with low real interest rates, and stressed that policy decisions will remain data-dependent and assessed on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Ueda declined to be drawn on near-term rate expectations, reinforcing a cautious stance.In China, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng reaffirmed confidence in the country’s long-term growth outlook while signalling that policy will remain “appropriately loose.” This was complemented by the NDRC outlining a broad fiscal and industrial push, including support for consumption, high-growth sectors such as AI and the digital economy, and expanded energy security measures.In New Zealand, political developments added a layer of uncertainty, with Prime Minister Luxon pushing back against reports of a leadership challenge. While not immediately market-moving, softer polling trends and election-related risks could become more relevant over time.FXMajor FX was relatively subdued. The yen weakened modestly, with limited support from official commentary suggesting that broader dollar strength, rather than idiosyncratic yen weakness, is driving moves. Good luck with that.EquitiesAsia-Pacific equities underperformed, with traders trimming exposure into the weekend despite positive cues from Wall Street. The cautious tone reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and reluctance to carry risk amid fluid headline risk.Houthis in Yemen will do the work to attempy po block Bab al-Mandeb if needed. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China signalled continued policy support, with the PBOC maintaining a loose stance and officials accelerating fiscal spending and investment in tech and energy to support growth amid global risks.Summary:PBOC signals “appropriately loose” policy, prioritising consumption support China warns on global imbalances, protectionism, and policy spillovers NDRC rolls out large-scale fiscal and industrial support measures Focus on AI, digital economy, and private investment in high-growth sectors Energy security push intensifies amid global shock risks China’s central bank and top economic planners struck a coordinated policy tone, signalling continued monetary support, stepped-up fiscal deployment, and structural reforms aimed at stabilising growth and boosting domestic demand.Speaking at the G20 finance meetings, People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng reiterated confidence in China’s long-term economic trajectory, while signalling that monetary policy will remain “appropriately loose.” The central bank will prioritise measures to support consumption, reflecting ongoing efforts to rebalance growth away from investment and exports.Pan also used the platform to deliver a broader message on the global economy, warning that rising protectionism, trade fragmentation, and structural weaknesses in the international monetary system are worsening global imbalances. He called for stronger G20 coordination to mitigate spillover risks from unilateral policy actions, underscoring China’s push for a more stable external environment.On the domestic front, China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), outlined an expansive policy agenda aimed at reinforcing growth momentum. Authorities will accelerate deployment of 800 billion yuan in policy financial tools, alongside 755 billion yuan in central budget investment and around 1 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds, with much of the allocation expected by mid-year.Policy support is increasingly targeted toward high-growth sectors, with officials highlighting plans to boost private investment in areas such as the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and commercial space industries. This reflects a broader shift toward upgrading China’s industrial base and supporting emerging technologies.Energy security remains a parallel priority. The NDRC signalled plans to diversify energy imports, expand strategic reserves, and accelerate the build-out of non-fossil energy capacity, which is expected to double over the coming decade. Officials emphasised that domestic energy markets remain stable due to government intervention, even as global shocks persist.At the same time, structural reforms are set to deepen, including efforts to unify the national market, improve factor allocation, and curb excessive competition across industries.Overall, the policy mix points to a coordinated approach combining monetary easing, fiscal expansion, and industrial strategy, as Beijing seeks to underpin growth while navigating a more fragmented and uncertain global backdrop. Supports China growth expectations and risk sentiment, with positive spillovers for commodities and Asia equities. Policy focus on tech and energy transition may underpin industrial metals and clean energy sectors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IEA warns Europe may have just six weeks of jet fuel left as Hormuz disruptions hit supply, raising risks of higher inflation, flight cuts and a global economic slowdown.Summary:IEA warns Europe may have ~6 weeks of jet fuel left if Hormuz disruption persists Energy shock seen as “largest ever,” with global inflation and growth risks rising Flight cancellations, higher fares and fuel costs already emerging Developing economies expected to bear the brunt of the crisis Prolonged disruption risks recession and long-term damage to energy supply The global economy is facing a severe and escalating energy shock as disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz threaten fuel supplies, growth, and inflation, according to the head of the International Energy Agency.IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that Europe may have as little as six weeks of jet fuel remaining if the current blockage persists, raising the prospect of flight cancellations in the near term. He described the situation as the most significant energy crisis seen to date, with consequences set to intensify the longer the disruption continues. The economic impact is already becoming visible. Airlines are facing rising fuel costs, with some routes becoming uneconomic, prompting capacity cuts and higher fares. While major carriers say there are no immediate shortages, the industry is increasingly alert to tightening supply conditions.Birol emphasised that the fallout will extend far beyond aviation, with higher oil, gas, and electricity prices feeding into broader inflation pressures globally. He warned that the shock could push some economies toward slower growth or even recession, particularly if supply disruptions are not resolved within weeks.The burden is expected to fall disproportionately on developing economies, especially in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, which are more vulnerable to energy price shocks and have fewer buffers. However, Birol stressed that no country is immune, given the central role of energy in global economic activity.Even in a scenario where the conflict eases, the outlook for supply remains constrained. Significant damage to energy infrastructure across the region, with dozens of key assets affected, means production may take months or even years to fully recover.The crisis is also raising broader policy concerns. Birol cautioned against the emergence of transit fees in key shipping chokepoints such as Hormuz, warning that such practices could set precedents for other critical routes, including the Strait of Malacca.Overall, the disruption underscores the deep interlinkage between energy and geopolitics, with the current crisis expected to reshape global energy markets and policy priorities for years to come. ---Bullish for oil and energy prices, with rising inflation risks and downside to global growth. Aviation, transport, and energy-intensive sectors face pressure, while recession risks increase if disruption persists. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

RBI has asked state refiners to curb spot dollar buying and use FX credit lines to ease pressure on the rupee, as oil prices and capital outflows weigh on the currency.Summary:RBI asks state refiners to curb spot dollar buying to support rupee Oil import FX demand redirected via SBI credit line Rupee hit record lows amid oil surge and capital outflows Measures echo crisis-era playbook from Ukraine war period Currency stabilises modestly following intervention India’s central bank has moved to curb pressure on the rupee by urging state-run oil refiners to reduce their spot dollar purchases and instead tap a dedicated foreign exchange credit facility, according to sources.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reportedly asked refiners to access foreign currency through a credit line arranged via State Bank of India (SBI), rather than sourcing dollars directly in the spot market. The measure is designed to limit the immediate demand for dollars, easing pressure on the domestic currency at a time of elevated volatility.The move comes as the rupee has come under sustained strain, weakened by a surge in global oil prices linked to the Iran conflict and ongoing foreign portfolio outflows. The currency has fallen more than 3% this year, at one point breaching record lows beyond 95 per U.S. dollar, making it one of the worst-performing major Asian currencies.State-run refiners, including Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum, and Bharat Petroleum, account for a significant share of India’s crude imports and are among the largest buyers of dollars in the domestic market. Redirecting their FX demand through SBI, or encouraging use of the RBI-backed credit line, is expected to smooth demand and reduce volatility.Market participants have already noted a decline in refiners’ activity in the spot FX market in recent days, suggesting the measures are having an impact.The steps form part of a broader policy response by the RBI to stabilise the rupee. The central bank has also intervened directly by selling dollars from its foreign exchange reserves, tightened rules around arbitrage trading, and restricted banks from offering certain offshore-linked FX products.These actions appear to have helped steady the currency, with the rupee recovering around 2% from its recent lows.Supports near-term rupee stability and reduces FX volatility, but highlights vulnerability to oil prices and capital flows. Signals continued RBI willingness to intervene, anchoring downside risks in INR. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZ PM Luxon said he has full caucus support despite reports of a leadership push, as weak polling adds to political uncertainty ahead of the election, posing modest downside risks for NZD sentiment.Summary:NZ PM Luxon rejects leadership challenge reports, says he has caucus support Media reports suggest internal pressure within National Party Polling shows declining support for Luxon and coalition risks ahead of election Political uncertainty adds to already fragile NZ economic backdrop Limited immediate market impact, but risks skewed to NZD sentiment and fiscal outlookNew Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has pushed back against reports of a potential leadership challenge, insisting he retains full support from his National Party caucus despite rising political pressure ahead of this year’s general election.Speaking to reporters, Luxon said he remains confident in his position, dismissing suggestions that party members are preparing to move against him when parliament returns. Local media reports have indicated that some lawmakers are considering a push for leadership change, though not necessarily through an immediate formal challenge or confidence vote.The political noise comes as polling trends point to weakening support for both Luxon and the governing coalition. Recent surveys show the National Party struggling to consistently poll above 30%, raising questions about its ability to retain power at the 7 November 2026 election. Leadership preference data has also turned unfavourable, with opposition leader Chris Hipkins polling ahead of Luxon in at least one recent survey.From a macro perspective, the developments add a layer of political uncertainty to an already mixed economic backdrop. New Zealand’s economy has been navigating subdued growth, elevated interest rates, and a gradual disinflation process, leaving policymakers at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in a cautious holding pattern.While the immediate economic impact of the political developments is limited, the situation could become more market-relevant if it begins to influence fiscal policy expectations or investor confidence. A weaker or more contested government heading into the election may reduce policy clarity at a time when economic conditions remain fragile.For financial markets, the implications are likely to be modest in the near term but skewed to sentiment. The New Zealand dollar could face mild pressure if political instability intensifies, particularly against a backdrop of global risk sensitivity and commodity price volatility. Domestic bond markets may remain anchored by the RBNZ’s policy stance, though longer-term yields could begin to reflect increased fiscal uncertainty if political risks escalate.Overall, while not yet a market-moving event, the political backdrop is becoming an increasingly relevant secondary factor for New Zealand assets as the election approaches. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore NODX rose 15.3% y/y in March, beating forecasts, as AI-driven electronics exports surged, though non-electronics remained weak and MAS warned of downside risks from global conditions. Summary:Singapore NODX +15.3% y/y in March vs +9.4% expected (Reuters poll) Electronics exports surge +74% y/y, driven by AI demand Non-electronics still weak (-0.6% y/y), highlighting uneven recovery Export growth broadening across Asia, softer to US and EU MAS flags downside risks from energy shock and tighter global conditionsSingapore’s export sector delivered a strong upside surprise in March, driven by a surge in electronics shipments linked to artificial intelligence demand, although underlying momentum remains uneven across sectors and regions.Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 15.3% year-on-year, well above the 9.4% increase expected in a Reuters poll and accelerating sharply from February’s 4% gain. The data marks a seventh consecutive month of expansion, reinforcing the resilience of Singapore’s externally driven economy despite rising global uncertainty.The strength was heavily concentrated in electronics, where exports jumped 74% y/y, supported by robust AI-related demand and favourable base effects. Key contributors included integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products, underscoring Singapore’s position within the global semiconductor and tech supply chain.However, the broader picture remains more mixed. Non-electronic exports declined 0.6% y/y, extending a run of weakness, though the pace of contraction moderated from February’s 6.9% drop. This divergence highlights a two-speed export profile, with tech-linked sectors outperforming while more traditional industries lag.Regionally, export gains were concentrated within Asia, with shipments to Hong Kong, Taiwan, and China rising, while exports to the United States, European Union, and Indonesia declined compared to a year earlier. This suggests that demand linked to regional supply chains — particularly in electronics — remains stronger than in Western markets.For policymakers, the data comes shortly after the Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened policy, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and currency pressures. However, MAS has also flagged growing downside risks, warning that a prolonged energy shock could tighten global financial conditions and weigh on demand, including through potential negative spillovers to the AI-driven cycle.While Singapore has upgraded its 2026 export growth forecast to 2–4%, the outlook remains contingent on global conditions. The March data reinforces near-term strength, but also highlights vulnerability to external shocks and the narrow base of the current export upswing. Highlights strength in the global AI and semiconductor cycle, supporting tech-linked assets. However, uneven export growth and MAS caution reinforce sensitivity to global demand and energy-driven risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finance ministry official: No comment when asked whether delay in BoJ rate hikes could trigger sharp yen falls It’s clear from data many currencies are weakening vs dollar, not just yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.