The NZDUSD has been stuck in a narrow 49-pip trading range over the last seven trading days, highlighting a market that has seen plenty of intraday and day-to-day price action but very little net progress.The broader move had been more bullish following the June 26 low, but that momentum has transitioned into a more neutral, consolidative phase. Evidence of that balance can be seen in the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, which have converged near 0.5878–0.58799. The sideways price action has allowed those moving averages to catch up with the market, and they now serve as the key short-term barometers for buyers and sellers.The 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.58799, while the 200-hour moving average is just below at 0.5878. Trading above the 100-hour MA gives buyers a modest advantage. Conversely, a move below the 200-hour MA — and staying below — would tilt the short-term bias more in favor of sellers.For now, however, the bigger story remains the range. Traders are looking toward the extremes at 0.58587 on the downside and 0.59066 on the upside for the next breakout and, importantly, momentum away from the recent consolidation.A break below 0.58587 would give sellers more control and have traders looking toward the 50% midpoint at 0.58092 as a potential downside target.On the topside, a break above 0.59066 would shift the bias more firmly in favor of buyers. That would put swing levels near 0.5918 and 0.5928 in play, followed by another swing target near 0.5967.Until one of the range extremes is broken, the NZDUSD remains stuck in the mud, with the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages defining the battle between buyers and sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

So the latest buzzword -- or buzzphrase -- is that "Compute is an investable asset class".It's a line that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is touting and it's throwing up all kinds of red flags for me. Firstly, I'm reminded of very similar wording around crypto near the top, just at the time the Wall Street investment banks piled in. It was ultimately a huge bait-and-switch as mom & pop investors were lured in to be exit liquidity for early investors.Now, we have Huang announcing a partnership with Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR in what's basically the formation of the Avengers for capital raising in order to get $500 billion to build out AI infrastructure (with NVDA chips of course).Again, the announcement is filled with buzzwords and the aim is to "establish independent financing platforms" of "third party capital".To put this all into plainer wording, they're trying to say that compute is equivalent to financing highways, airports and bridges with the idea that if the company owning it fails, you get the chips/datacenter and lease it to someone else. It's a pitch aimed to get into the deep pockets of pensions and insurance companies.One of the reasons this is such a big red flag for me is because it's another sign that the money is running out. Venture capital has been tapped hard on AI -- and did very well -- but isn't interested in financing data centers. Companies have scaled up debt where they can but it's expensive and their CDS are rising. That's since led to Google raising equity and just this week Intel announced the same.So the entire essay by Huang is an effort to raise money from people who normally don't lend for this kind of thing. It's an attempt to reframe the risks, and mitigate them. The stakes are abundantly clear as with the announcement, which included a CNBC panel that surely had the largest ability to deploy capital of any in history:  BlackRock's Larry Fink, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon, BlackStone's Jon Gray, KKR's Waldemar Szlezak, Brookfield's Bruce Flatt, and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.Notably, all of them went into a hard sell on "AI factories".Not surprisingly, the market is loving it as they've combined to soak pensions and take the risk away from the companies that are promising a brave new world (and will be the ones that profit from it). The bamboozle they're trying to pull is that a GPU is no longer an asset with a quickly-depreciating 3-year asset life as the next generation makes them obsolete but the equivalent of a power plant.Moves today:The brazen contradiction here is assuming the long useful life of these assets goes directly against the dominant investment theme in markets right now: That recursive self-improvement is coming via AI and will be deployed in chip design (and everything else). So we value Anthropic at $1 trillion plus because it's going to change everything but it won't find ways to do inference cheaper or design better chips?That folds into my #1 sale red flag around AI, the idea that it's going to cure diseases. Whenever one of the AI titans writes anything or describes the use case of AI, one of the first things that comes up -- usually the first -- is that it's going to cure diseases.Just yesterday, Mark Zuckerberg leaned into it writing:Invention, not automation, will be the greatest contribution of superintelligence. Early AI could answer questions and do routine work. Soon it will increasingly help discover new knowledge -- ranging from discovering new drugs to cure a family member's disease to finding new ways to improve your business.Dario Amodei has been selling this idea for years.Surely you've heard a version of this before. The thing is, no one touting any of it has ever developed a drug or cured anyting. They haven't the slightest idea how long drug development takes. To me, it's like them saying that AI will help them find literal gold mines. The thing that any mining investor will tell you is that you don't actually 'discover' gold mines, you have to prove them with years of drilling. Drug development if fraught with an infinite amount of issues and necesserily long testing timelines.The AI hype-seller may now be starting to realize this and also realize that their investments need to pay off in a shorter timeline than curing cancer. But their regulatory capture runs so deep that Zuckerberg isn't saying that they will find cures via the traditional route, instead he's saying they need to 'move fast and break things' on human drug testing."We should accelerate society's ability to develop new cures and inoculate against new issues as they arise. This includes streamlining how the FDA and other regulators test and approve new treatments. As AI increases the pace of drug discovery, we will need to update these processes to keep up with the pace of innovation anyway."Who is he to weigh in on drug testing protocols? Have we worshipped the tech gods so much that we're going to let them re-write the rule book on drug testing so they can justify AI spending? How about before we launch accelerated human experiments you cure just one disease with AI the traditional way? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The broader S&P and Nasdaq indices are mixed in intraday trading, with the S&P currently up around 0.07% while the Nasdaq is down -0.08%.For the S&P index, the technical picture remains bullish as the index trades near its all-time high of 7793.68, reached during last week’s trading. A break above that level would put the focus on an upward-sloping trendline connecting recent highs on the hourly chart. That trendline currently comes in near 7850.00 and is moving higher.Recall that last Tuesday, the S&P broke above its previous record high at 7617.37, while also moving away from a key swing area between 7577.92 and 7617.37. That area now represents an important downside risk zone. It would take a move back below that area — and staying below — to give sellers greater control. Absent that, the buyers remain firmly in the driver’s seat, with the record high and the topside trendline the next targets.For the Nasdaq index, the technical picture is somewhat less bullish. The index remains below its all-time high of 27190.21, reached in early June. That remains the longer-term upside target, but there is work to do before getting there.Closer resistance comes from a swing area between 26605.36 and 26788.62, with the upper end representing last week’s high. The Nasdaq is currently trading below the lower boundary at 26605.36, giving sellers some short-term control. Staying below that level keeps the door open for additional downside probing. Conversely, a move back above 26605.36, followed by a break of 26788.62, would shift the technical bias back more firmly toward the buyers and put the all-time high back in play. In the video above I take a look at the key technical levels in play for each of the broader indices. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 4.09m (revised to 4.13m)Sales -1.7% vs -2.4% prior (revised to -1.4%)Home prices +2.0% y/yMedian price $434,100Inventory at 4.6 months vs 4.6 months priorThe housing market is in a steady state that isn't helped by high mortgage rates due to rising Treasury yields. There is some steady growth in that chart but when you discount it against CPI, there is a slight-but-steady improvement in affordability. The key question next is what will happen to borrowing rates from here. There is also -- in some sense -- a ticking time bomb in the US housing market as construction hasn't kept pace with household formation. So at some point there needs to be a pickup in home construction, though builders may neen the price signal to accelerate for that to happen.For background, existing-home sales are the largest component of the U.S. housing market and are closely watched for signals on household confidence, affordability, mortgage demand and housing-related spending. The data cover closings of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, making the series broader and generally less revision-prone than new-home sales, which are based on contract signings.Through May, the market was showing a modest recovery from the rate-driven weakness that has depressed turnover since 2022. Sales rose 3.2% from April and were also up 3.2% from a year earlier, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million — the strongest pace since December. Single-family homes drove the improvement, with sales up 3.5% month over month to a 3.80 million annualized pace, while condo and co-op sales were unchanged at 370,000.Affordability improved somewhat, with NAR’s affordability index rising to 105.6 from 97.5 a year earlier as income growth outpaced home-price gains in many regions. Even so, affordability remains the central constraint on the market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.44% in May, higher than in April but below the 6.82% rate a year earlier.Inventory is also moving in the right direction, though only gradually. Unsold supply rose 3.3% in May to 1.55 million homes, equivalent to 4.5 months of supply. Despite the increase in listings, prices remain firm: the national median existing-home price rose 1.3% year over year to a May record of $429,300, suggesting that additional supply has yet to produce broad-based price relief. First-time buyers accounted for 35% of sales, while cash buyers held steady at 25%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pakistan defense minister Khawaja Asif told Bloomberg that “things are shaping up again in favor of a peace arrangement or a deal,” on Hormuz shipping transits.That's a sharp turnabout after yesterday Trump escalated rhetoric and called for US reparations in response to a similar Iranian call. The countries are  close to “some sort of arrangement” over the Strait of Hormuz he said. “The signals in the last two to three days are that we are close to some sort of an arrangement,” he added.It's not the only sign of progress. Al Jazeera reported that talks between Iran and Oman about opening a shipping channel through the Strait were at a “critical juncture.”WTI crude oil rose as high as $84.61 earlier but has turned lower on the report and is now down 44-cents to $81.69. It remains meaningfully higher on the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The RBA kept rates unchanged, but the message from the central bank remains firmly in the hold-or-hike camp. Rate cuts are not currently part of the discussion, and the next move could still be higher if inflation and cost pressures fail to ease. That more hawkish stance has ultimately helped support the AUDUSD today.The initial reaction to the RBA decision was relatively muted, with the AUDUSD actually moving lower after the announcement. The price fell back below both the 100-day and 100-hour moving averages near 0.7052 and reached a session low of 0.7041.However, sellers could not maintain the downside momentum.Buyers returned and pushed the price back above both the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages. That shift helped propel the pair to a new session high of 0.7068, and solidify the 100 day moving average as a key support level once again. Staying above keeps buyers and control.The rebound puts the focus back on an important topside target at the 50% midpoint of the move down from the May 5 high to the late-June low at 0.70707. There are certainly a lot of sevens and zeros in that level, but technically it is an important barometer for buyers and sellers.The price moved above that midpoint on Friday and again yesterday, only to quickly rotate back to the downside on both occasions. As a result, getting above 0.70707 — and staying above it — would be an important technical step and could be the catalyst for additional upside momentum.Just above that level sits Friday's high at 0.7077. A break above both 0.70707 and 0.7077 would open the door toward the next swing area between 0.7100 and 0.7113. Beyond that, the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the May high comes in at 0.7119.For now, the buyers have the advantage with the price back above the 100-day moving average. It would take a move back below that moving average to give the sellers more hope. More downside control would come on a break below the rising 200-hour moving average at 0.7036.Bottom line: Buyers are in control following the post-RBA rebound. Get above the 50% midpoint at 0.70707 and Friday's high at 0.7077, and traders can start looking for the next upside push toward 0.7100–0.7119. Move back below the 100-day moving average, and the bullish technical bias starts to weaken. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD is trading in a very narrow 16-pip range today, with buyers and sellers battling for control near a key technical support level. That is not a lot of movement, and at some point the range will break. Traders will then look for momentum in the direction of that break.The broader bias remains tilted to the downside following Friday's stronger-than-expected Canadian jobs report and weaker-than-expected US employment report. Those releases sent the USDCAD sharply lower, away from its falling 100-hour moving average (blue line on the chart above) and through the swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966 (see red numbered circles and yellow area on the chart above).The next key target for sellers is the rising 100-day moving average, currently at 1.39167. Friday's low reached 1.39248, while Monday's low and today's low have both held just above that level near 1.3929. The repeated tests highlight the importance of the 100-day MA as support.If sellers are going to take firmer control, they need to get below that 100-day moving average at 1.39167. The last time the USDCAD traded below its 100-day MA was back on May 14, when the average was near 1.3715. From there, the pair ultimately climbed to its 2026 high of 1.4247 on June 24 before beginning its current rotation back to the downside.A break below the 100-day MA would put the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 1 low at 1.3899 in play. Get below that level, and attention would turn toward the 200-day moving average at 1.38547 (the lower green moving average on the chart above).Conversely, if buyers can start to exert more control, the first step would be getting back above the low of the broken swing area at 1.3948. Above there, the top of that area at 1.3966 would be targeted, followed by the falling 100-hour moving average at 1.39812.A move above the 100-hour MA would be a more meaningful shift in the short-term bias and open the door toward the 200-hour moving average near 1.4009. Ultimately however, the price would need to get and stay above the 200 hour moving average to give the buyers control over the sellersBottom line: Sellers remain more in control, but the 100-day moving average at 1.39167 has been a stubborn support level and is helping to neutralize the downside momentum over the last two trading days. At the same time, buyers have been unable to reclaim even the first resistance target at 1.3948. That keeps the bearish bias intact, with the 100-day MA representing the next key hurdle for sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 15.0KFor the four weeks ending July 25, 2026, US private employers added an average of 8,250 jobs a week down from 15,000 last week.What is this release?Initiated in late 2025, ADP releases the NER Pulse, an estimate of the week-over-week change in employment based on a four-week moving average. These releases are seasonally adjusted and have a two-week lag to allow for more complete and accurate estimates of real-time employment trends. At the beginning of each month, ADP publishes  the National Employment Report, which is built on a reference week that includes the 12th day of the month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US July NFIB small business optimism index 99.8 vs 97.5 expectedAnother cargo ship reportedly struck by the Houthis in the Red SeaUK stats office to only decide in July next year on plausibility of transition to improved labour market dataItaly trade surplus widens to €4.2 billion in June as exports accelerateThe S&P 500 rally stalls as US-Iran deal gets delayed and the focus shifts to the US CPI reportYen buying likely to stay more muted for the time being - MUFGGold extends the rally after the soft NFP, but the US CPI could wipe out all the gainsSingapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeOil price prediction: Crude holds above $82 as bulls target a breakout past $82.55What are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 11 August 10am New York cutRBA governor Bullock: We did not discuss a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or to holdBitcoin analysis shows the crypto king holds near $64k as order flow improves, but $65k remains the real testRBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August monetary policy meeting, as expectedHeads up: RBA monetary policy decision at the bottom of the hourIt's been a relatively calm session with limited data and news flow. The highlight was the RBA's rate decision where the central bank held the Cash Rate steady at 4.35% as widely expected. The central bank has also released the updated macroeconomic forecasts where inflation was revised lower and unemployment higher. The Cash Rate assumption for 2027 has also been revised lower to indicate potentially just one more rate hike ahead if needed. RBA Governor Bullock reiterated their hawkish stance and stressed that the Board had not discussed a rate cut at this meeting, only a rate hike or a hold. She also added that a rate hike is still in front of their mind suggesting that the bar for an additional rate hike remains relatively low. The US NFIB Small Optimism Index rose to 99.8 in July compared to 97.4 in the prior month, moving the index above the 52-year average of 98.0 and reaching the highest level since August 2025. The July increase was broad-based, with eight of the index’s 10 components improving, while two declined. The strongest contribution came from hiring plans, pointing to a renewed willingness among small businesses to expand their workforces. There was also improvement in plans to make capital expenditure, although uncertainty remains elevated.On the geopolitical front, the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson said that negotiations between Iran and Oman are now in an advanced stage and there was positive feedback from both sides. The New York Times yesterday reported that Iran talks with Oman on shipping routes in the Hormuz strait were separate from discussions to fully reopen the waterway. Iran insists that the strait will remain closed until the US agrees to Iran's demands.For background, Iran's demands include never threatening Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of the nation, ending the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever, lifting the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces from around Iran, paying the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran, lifting the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation, unconditionally releasing the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people. That's peanuts...In the markets, the price action has been mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report due tomorrow. We saw some action in the Australian dollar, with a drop on the rate decision and a recovery during Bullock's press conference. Oil prices have also saw a notable decline following the Qatari foreign minister spokesperson's remarks and the news of Pakistani's interior minister arriving in Tehran for talks.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior was 97.4 This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Maritime security sources and coast guards in the region are reporting that a cargo ship has been targeted in the Red Sea, in the Bab al-Mandab strait. The sources are reporting that the deck of the cargo ship was struck and that three persons were killed in the attack.This just keeps the tensions up with not just the Strait of Hormuz being impacted by attacks. The constant threats along the Bab al-Mandab strait also means that oil supplies are being impacted, especially with Saudi Arabia being caught in the crosshairs here.For some context, the number of daily vessel transits along the Bab al-Mandab strait is usually around 120 to 140 ships before the conflict started. But now, we're seeing that number fall to around 25 to 40 ships per day instead.While that is a pick up from the July lows and the peak of the threats by the Houthis last month, headlines like the one above will continue to deliver a warning to shipping companies across the region. That especially with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, where daily ship transits have fallen to just single-digits.Oil prices continue to stay underpinned this week, with WTI crude now up 2.5% to $84.22 on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

This builds on the previous story here: ONS to only lay groundwork for labour market statistical improvements in AugustFor some backdrop, this has been an ongoing issue for well over three years now. The issue with UK labour market data is more of the accuracy and consistency during the past few years, largely due to the falling response rate to the Labour Force Survey (LFS).As such, the UK stats office has announced that they will be making the transition to a Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) instead. However, the timeline for this transition has been pushed back one too many a time already.Initially, everything was supposed to be put into place by November this year. Fast forward to now, and it seems like the target transition date is now postponed to a full year later. The ONS says that while recent improvements to the survey have been encouraging, "more time is needed to understand the full impact of the recent changes and assess what they mean for the quality of the statistics".As such, they want to keep collecting data and analysing available information through to July 2027 before deciding on whether the TLFS is fully ready. And if so, the transition will then be made in November 2027 after."The next major milestone is expected in July 2027, when we plan to undertake a further full readiness assessment. If the evidence supports it, and  if  we and our users are ready, we will make the transition to the TLFS for our headline labour market statistics in November 2027."The full update blog post can be found here.In the meantime, UK labour market data will continue to have a caveat attached to it. And it has been something that the BOE has been vocal about in criticising the ONS for, as the lack of credible data makes it harder for policymakers to decide on monetary policy.Given the ONS' history of bottling things, I would not be the least bit surprised if this timeline for next year happens to be pushed even further come what may. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Italy’s trade balance recorded a €4.23 billion surplus in June 2026, with both exports and imports increasing on a monthly and annual basis, according to seasonally adjusted data.Exports rose 1.6% m/m, while imports increased by 1.2%. The stronger export performance was driven primarily by trade with EU countries, where exports jumped 6.7%, while shipments to non-EU countries declined 3.6%.On the import side, incoming flows increased from both EU and non-EU markets, rising 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively. The latest figures also point to stronger trade activity over the second quarter. Compared with the previous three-month period, seasonally adjusted exports increased 2.2%, while imports recorded a considerably stronger 5.4% rise.On an annual basis, trade flows accelerated further. Exports in June were 9.8% higher than in the same month of 2025, while imports increased 13.2%. Export growth was particularly strong within the EU, with outgoing flows rising 15.1% year-on-year. Exports to non-EU countries increased at a more moderate 4.1%.Imports showed the opposite pattern, with incoming flows from non-EU countries jumping 18.7%, compared with a 9.1% increase from EU countries. Despite imports growing faster than exports over the year, Italy maintained a substantial trade surplus in June.The overall surplus stood at €4.23 billion, consisting of a €1.58 billion surplus with EU countries and a €2.66 billion surplus with non-EU countries. Excluding energy products, Italy's trade surplus was considerably larger, reaching €9.23 billion, highlighting the continued strength of the country's underlying goods trade position.Import prices fell 1.3% m/m in June. Prices for imports from the euro area were unchanged, while prices from non-euro-area countries declined 2.6%. The quarterly picture was different. Over the three months to June, import prices increased 5.0% compared with the previous three-month period, driven by a 7.4% increase in prices from non-euro-area countries and a 2.5% rise for the euro area.On an annual basis, import prices were 4.9% higher than in June 2025. Prices increased 3.0% for euro-area imports and 6.6% for imports from outside the euro area. Overall, June's data point to robust growth in Italian trade flows, with exports continuing to expand and the country maintaining a sizeable external surplus. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong rally in the S&P 500 has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54% before the release. Market pricing has normalised since then though, with the probability of a September hike rising back to 48%.The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.The next major event will be the US CPI report tomorrow. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give the S&P 500 another boost. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the S&P 500 stalled around the upper bound of the rising channel as traders await the US CPI report. The sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the record high to position for a drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking above the record high to extend the gains into the 8,000 level.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation that started last Wednesday when the US-Iran deal failed to materialise. The soft NFP provided some support due to the dovish repricing, but the US CPI will ultimately decide whether the Fed hikes or not in September. The swing low around the 7,725 level will likely act as a minor support. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the swing low to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the drop into the 7,640 support next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action will likely remain mostly rangebound into the US CPI release. We could also see some hedging into the data which could result in some weakness. At this point, it’s just about waiting patiently for the data. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Despite the joint intervention move by Japan and the US, it doesn't seem to be sticking all too much. USD/JPY is already on its way back up in pushing above 159 this week, though I would argue that traders will remain a bit more cautious in chasing a move above 160 for now.While the combined effort between Japan and the US is significant, MUFG is one to argue that it's not likely to perpetuate - at least in terms of market signaling. The firm believes that traders are still looking to sell the yen where possible at this juncture."After such a large FX drop in USD/JPY, market participants’ appetite for buying the yen could remain muted for now. Certain elements of the market, like retail FX margin traders, were short USD/JPY and could be playing a role in providing renewed yen selling flows. Those short USD/JPY positions have probably been liquidated but returning to a carry strategy (rather than directional) may be deemed as more attractive once again at these lower levels, encouraging renewed USD/JPY buying."In my view, it's more of a give and take at the moment. As a reminder, it's all a psychological game when it comes to USD/JPY - as it has been since April.The joint intervention is a clear enough signal for traders not to get too carried away in the short-term. However, it doesn't change the fact that the fundamentals for the yen currency remain absolutely dreadful. And it won't get any better the longer that the US-Iran conflict continues to rage on.Sitting on the joint intervention topic, Nomura chimes in to say that the amount spent by the MOF this time around likely exceeded that back in late April to early May."We yet don't know the amount of intervention from both sides, but we estimate the Japanese authorities provided approximately ¥14.1 trillion in intervention or $88 billion from 30 July to 3 August, using the BOJ's daily data and local money market dealers' projections. This exceeds the amount of MOF intervention on 30 April, 4 May and 6 May, which was officially confirmed by the MOF as ¥11.7349 trillion. On these interventions in April-May, we found this daily intervention result somewhat surprising, as it did intervene on 4 May, as we believed that intervention did not occur on this day, based on price action on that day."Adding that US intervention amount remains unclear for now but there was perhaps a different message indicated by Washington in the manner that they chose to step into the market:"Reports from the FT and Nikkei strongly suggest the US likely conducted short EUR/JPY intervention. The US likely chose this pair to curb JPY weakness, as it did not want to convey a message to the market that could be inconsistent with its strong USD policy." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW Gold extended into new highs yesterday as a soft NFP report on Friday led to a dovish repricing in Fed interest rate expectations.  Overall, the data wasn’t as bad as the headline number suggested. The significant loss of government jobs made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. The labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, the price action might be mostly rangebound or we could see some hedging into the US CPI tomorrow that could result in some weakness. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in gold, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give gold another boost to extend the rally into new highs. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold has almost reached the major trendline around the 4,500 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 4,800 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish structure. The buyers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 4,200 support next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the minor trendline, while the sellers will need to wait for either a break below the minor trendline or a rally into the major one. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow, we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Oil price prediction: Crude holds near breakout highs, but $82.55 is the line bulls need to clearCrude oil futures remain technically bullish after surging from the high-$77s into the low-$82s, although consolidation near the highs shows that buyers have yet to secure a clean continuation.Based on user-supplied CL SEP26 30-minute data covering August 9–11, crude advanced from an initial close of $78.85 to $82.40—a gain of $3.55, or approximately 4.5%. The contract reached a low of $77.79 early on August 10 before reversing sharply and printing a high of $82.55 on August 11.The immediate outlook remains constructive above $81.90–$82.00. However, $82.55 has emerged as the confirmation level bulls must clear to unlock the next move toward $83.00 and potentially $83.40–$83.50.High-volume breakout strengthens the bullish caseThe defining move occurred on August 10, when crude recovered through $79 and accelerated above $80. During the main impulse window between 10:00 and 16:00, the contract gained approximately $2.59 on aggregate volume of 91,965.The session’s highest-volume 30-minute bar appeared at 11:00, recording volume of 13,966 and closing at $80.86. Because the strongest participation coincided with the breakout through $80, the advance looks more convincing than a rally driven solely by thin trading conditions.Crude subsequently extended into the $82.30–$82.55 area without surrendering much of the gain. That ability to consolidate near the highs is generally constructive: sellers have slowed the advance but have not yet forced a meaningful reversal.The caution is that momentum has cooled. Later consolidation occurred on lighter volume, while DataLogger readings showed a notable selling imbalance near the highs around 16:01 on August 10. This suggests that buyers may need a fresh catalyst before they can force another sustained leg higher.Geopolitical risk remains part of the oil-price equationThe technical breakout is unfolding against continued uncertainty over Iran and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. InvestingLive reported that President Trump’s response to Iran’s reparations demand had pushed a potential Hormuz agreement further out of reach, potentially prolonging uncertainty around a critical global energy route.A separate InvestingLive analysis described Trump’s approach as shifting toward a “siege strategy”. For oil traders, continued economic pressure and restricted shipping conditions can preserve a geopolitical risk premium even without an immediate military escalation.A broader technical perspective points in the same directional sense, although it uses a different benchmark and price framework. According to market analysis from Exness, crude oil is demonstrating renewed bullish momentum after holding key support with technical indicators signaling a potential push higher. Exness oil anaysis levels differ but that is not the point. I am anlayzing the September 2026 futures contract here. Different crude benchmarks, contract months and analysis windows can trade at materially different prices. The relevant overlap is the bullish momentum signal, not the exact price levels.Oil price forecast: Levels traders should watchThe near-term technical map centers on $82.55 resistance and $81.90–$82.00 support.Bullish scenarioA decisive break and sustained hold above $82.55 would confirm that buyers have absorbed the supply appearing near the recent high. That would bring the psychological $83.00 level into focus.If momentum and volume expand above $83.00, the next measured-move objective sits around $83.40–$83.50. The high-volume advance through $80 and the subsequent retention of most gains provide the strongest evidence for this scenario.Consolidation scenarioIf crude remains above $81.90 but cannot clear $82.55, sideways trading may continue. Such a pause would not invalidate the uptrend, but repeated failures at resistance could gradually weaken momentum and encourage short-term profit-taking.Bearish scenarioA break below $81.90 would be the first sign that the post-breakout consolidation is turning into a correction. Initial downside attention would shift to $81.60–$81.70, followed by the former breakout and congestion zone between $81.20 and $80.80.A deeper reversal could expose $79.60–$79.75, the major August 10 breakout shelf. Below that area, $78.70–$78.75 becomes the next older pivot.Crude oil predictionSome of you oil traders are already in Long and have enjoyed the recent rally. So what about considering some partial profit taking?My 4-hour Light Crude Oil Futures (CL1!) chart above displays a strong upward recovery, pushing the current price level toward $82.66. For traders holding long positions, the chart identifies an immediate partial profit target at the local horizontal resistance level around $82.82. A secondary, higher profit target is marked at $84.25, which corresponds directly with the previous month's Point of Control (pmPOC).Oil’s short-term bias remains bullish while CL SEP26 holds above $81.90–$82.00. A clean break above $82.55 would confirm renewed upside momentum and put $83.00, followed by $83.40–$83.50, in focus.However, failure to clear $82.55 followed by a drop below $81.90 would suggest that the rally is entering a corrective phase after rebounding more than $4 from the August 10 low.The technical evidence currently favors buyers, but the market is stretched enough that confirmation matters. Traders should monitor volume around $82.55, along with inventory data, OPEC headlines, US dollar movement, broader risk sentiment and geopolitical developments affecting Gulf supply routes.This oil price analysis and forecast opinion is for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the Italian trade balance. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action will likely remain mostly rangebound as traders await the US CPI report, but we could also see some hedging into the release that could result in pullbacks across different markets. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we just get a couple of low-tier releases like the weekly US ADP employment change and the US existing home sales. The data won't change anything for the Fed, so the market reaction will be muted. It's just going to be another day of waiting for the US CPI release and further US-Iran developments... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.Markets are continuing to stay in the countdown to the US CPI report tomorrow. That is the main event this week and as such, major currencies are also more or less caught in a bind until we get to the data release.The lack of expiries today will not give currency traders much to work with, so don't expect all too much action in European morning trade once again.All eyes will stay on the Japanese yen, with the currency falling back again this week in erasing a chunk of the intervention move at the end of July. That is keeping the dollar supported as well, though the counter-balance to that is the softer US jobs report from Friday last week.All that being said, USD/JPY will remain cautious the closer we get to the 160 mark. That could be the key psychological level in which we might see another round of joint intervention or perhaps even just Tokyo deciding to act on its own again, to at least try and make their presence felt.Otherwise, the pressure valve will turn to the other side and move against Japanese officials once again. So, it's a careful line to thread right now for them.Besides that, there's not too much of a focus for major currencies besides watching for how the dollar will react to the inflation numbers tomorrow.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.