US Stock Benchmarks are stuck due to recent heightened uncertainty regarding the US-Iran ceasefireStock bulls remain in control with Indexes remaining rangebound despite back-and-forth action in Crude OilExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The US-Iran Ceasefire is a fragile one to say the least, but this doesn't prevent ever-hungry Stock Markets to remain strong.Sentiment quickly turned from extreme fear to what could be considered to be relative greed: Indexes have bounced between 7% to 10% from their War lows in a matter of a few sessions after the rumors, then realization of an actual US-Iran-Israel truce.The CNN Fear & Greed index is still in fear territory – but this indicator is quite dodgy.The issue comes from pre-existing disagreements between US and Iranian demands for a proper peace process to engage, as the current ceasefire only aims to find common ground between the Allies and the Islamic regime.Hezbollah activity has not ceased, leading to pursued Israeli operations in Lebanon and this is a contentious terrain for the brittle negotiations.The latest news saw US President Trump putting pressure on its Israeli counterpart to de-escalate this battle, and PM Netanyahu just announced that they will be starting direct discussions with the Lebanese Government – A material turn in narrative. Oil and Dow Jones Inverted correlation (Beginning April). Source: TradingView – April 9, 2026 After rallying back above the key $100 level, Crude Oil has started to ease its run higher and this is a soothing development for Stock Markets.The action was quite muted and uncertain since 9:30 Opening Bell, but the flash news is for now acting as a fresh breeze for buyers to step back in – The move continuing higher will be contingent on how Iran responds and if the situation can really progress from here.At least, recent pressure from Trump shows that the US is serious about this ceasefire, which should help Market sentiment ahead.With recent uncertainty freshly clearing, we will look at the short-timeframe intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Oil just doesn't want to correct with persistent Ceasefire uncertainty – WTI Technical analysisMarkets Today: Reality check hits markets as ceasefire fragility weighs, US PCE data in focusThe Ceasefire trade is on, but clouds remain – North American Session Market Wrap for April 8Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:57 PM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 9, 2026 The morning Stock Market Heatmap shows quite a fractured activity, hinting at index and individual equity plays rather than sectorial positioning.A clear performer of recent action have been Produce Manufacturing stocks that are getting relieved from the better sentiment and cleaner Crude Oil outlook. One particular winner though is Amazon, flashing higher from the news that their progress on AI in-house chips is going well.As long as uncertainty reigns, focusing either on the big picture (Indexes) or individual stocks is the way to go.Dow Jones 1H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 1H Chart – April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones has entered a consequent bull trend since forming its lows at the beginning of April trading.The recent Israel-Lebanon talks headlines have preceded yet another bounce in the Index, but traders will have to be cautious as prices now reach a significant resistance level (March 4 war Resistance at 48,250).Breaking back above would leave the bull-trend intactRejecting the resistance however would hint at a retracementThe first stop would be at the 50-Hour MA (47,610)The second stop is the 47,000 Psychological supportDow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMarch 4 Resistance 48,250 to 48,300Mini-resistance 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200Support LevelsBull/Bear Momentum Pivot at 48,000Major Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (50-Hour MA)War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,30045,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 1H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 1H Chart – April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is now showing relative weakness after its significant 10% rally, failing to breach its past session's 25,100 highs.The 25,000 to 25,250 higher timeframe is acting as a restrictive signal which will need to be breached for the action to have higher odds to reach all-time highs in coming times.Rejecting lower from here would point to a retest of the 24,700 Pivot area.Breaking 25,100 would point at 25,250Next stop will be 25,400A proper truce will be necessary for further progress, as always, keep track of the headlines.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,25025,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistanceMajor resistance 25,700 to 25,850Support Levels24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot 24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal SupportFeb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 1H Chart – April 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has, like the Dow Jones, broken its previous day's highs after the Israel-Lebanon talks news, but the action is stalling at the key 6,840 resistance.Breaching it would be a stronger sign for times ahead, with the next stop at 6,880.Rejecting current levels however would also point to a retest of the 50-Hour Moving Average (6,750).Breaking below this hints at 6,700.Keep track of the bull channel!S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsEarly March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support LevelsMajor Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)6,580 to 6,610 Support4H 50-period MA 6,5506,490 to 6,520 October lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)The narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical technical crossroads as CPI spike loomsMarkets are bracing for a massive 1.0% surge in March Headline CPIWhile the Headline CPI is forecasted to hit a two-year high of 3.4%, Core CPI is expected to remain stable at 0.2%, though the closure of the Strait of Hormuz presents a significant upside risk to food inflationMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) stalls at critical $4900/oz resistance as bear signal flashesMarket participants are eyeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it hovers above a key confluence area of support around the 98.50 mark.The index has struggled to gain any traction since the gap down on Tuesday April 7, following the ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran. The optimism around a ceasefire remains fragile though as developments since the announcement hint at further escalation and a resumption of the war. Thus the risk premium attached to markets remains firmly in play and this is evidenced by the lack of continuation to the moves which occurred just after the ceasefire announcement. Since then many assets have hovered in a tight range with Gold declining to levels prior to the ceasefire announcement overnight.Oil prices on the other hand remain significantly higher than the pre-war levels and are once again breaching the $100/barrel mark.The US dollar had benefitted from a risk off environment prior to the ceasefire and maybe get a renewed bid if the situation remains tense. For now though, the DXY remains caught in a tight range.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, April 9, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Looking at the technical picture, The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical crossroads.The index has recently snapped its ascending channel, signaling a shift in market structure. We are now seeing a potential retest of the 99.50 and 100.00 psychological handles from below, which has flipped from support to resistance.Key Support: Immediate focus is on the confluence of the 100-day SMA (98.63) and the 200-day SMA (98.49). A daily close below this "Golden Cross" zone would confirm the trend reversal.Key Resistance: Bulls need a move back above the 100.00 mark and the recent swing high of 100.61 to invalidate the bearish pattern.With the RSI softening toward the 40 level, the path of least resistance appears to be lower.Conversely, if the DXY fails to record a daily candle close below the "Golden Cross" zone and 200-day MA then a retest of the 99.50 zone and potentially the psychological 100.00 level will increase in probability.US GDP, PCE data fail to inspire a move. Will US CPI be the catalyst? The latest batch of economic data paints a challenging picture for the U.S. economy: a "stagflationary" cocktail of cooling growth, shrinking personal incomes, and an unexpected climb in jobless claims.However, it was the inflation data that stole the spotlight. The Commerce Department’s February Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric—landed exactly on the mark. Headline prices climbed 0.4% for the month, a slight heat-up from January’s 0.3%, while maintaining a 2.8% annual pace.The Core RealityCore PCE, which filters out the noise of food and energy, also matched forecasts with a monthly rise of 0.4% and an annual print of 3.0%. While these figures met expectations, two major caveats remain:The Target Gap: Inflation remains stubbornly well above the Fed's 2% mandate.The Lag Effect: This data captures the pre-war environment. It does not yet account for the massive energy price spike triggered by the conflict with Iran which leaves the March outlook significantly more hawkish. Source: LSEG US CPI preview Heading into tomorrow's CPI release which would provide a first glance at the potential impact of rising Oil prices, markets are bracing for a massive 1.0% surge in March CPI, the sharpest monthly jump since the 2022 energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine. This spike is almost entirely a "pain at the pump" story; gasoline prices are projected to drive a staggering 12.5% increase in energy costs.While the headline figure is set to jump, the underlying trend remains more subdued:Core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy): Expected at a moderate 0.2%, matching February’s pace.Annual Headline Inflation: Forecasted to leap from 2.4% to 3.4%, hitting a two-year high.Annual Core Inflation: Projected to tick up slightly to 2.6%. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) The Risk Factor: Although food is expected to rise by a modest 0.3%, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant upside threat. Disruptions to global fertilizer supplies could soon turn "moderate" food inflation into a much larger headache for the Fed.In short, energy is doing the heavy lifting here, and while core inflation looks stable for now, the geopolitical ripple effects are just beginning to surface.Such a move in the CPI print should in theory provide support for the US Dollar and could lead to a rebound.However, the risk off/risk on sentiment dynamics remain the primary at present and thus any developments in the Middle East could still overshadow the CPI release.Stay nimble.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil attempted to correct after the latest US-Iran ceasefire announcementHowever, the truce is very fragile and with headlines going back and forth, commodity traders are stuck in the mudExploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of WTI Crude Oil Traders were just celebrating the latest 2-week US–Iran ceasefire news, but it now seems that Markets got ahead of themselves.The initial reaction was one of a classic risk unwind – WTI Crude Oil gapped sharply lower from around $118 to $92 as risk premium evaporated almost instantly on the announcement. For a brief moment, it looked like the geopolitical overhang that had fueled oil’s explosive rally was finally unwinding.But that relief didn’t last.Since the gap lower, prices have been grinding steadily higher again, now hovering back near the key $100 level — a sign that traders are reassessing just how fragile this truce really is. Headlines over the past 24 hours have painted a highly uncertain picture:Iranian officials have stressed that any meaningful peace agreement must extend beyond bilateral talks, explicitly mentioning broader regional considerations, including Lebanon, and warning that the coming hours are “critical.” At the same time, conflicting narratives between US and Iranian sources have only confirmed that the two sides are still far from trusting each other. What is sure is that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains more than muted, if inexistent.A recent Reuters report indicated 6 crossings in the last 24 hours compared to the usual 140 in the same timespan – That's not the type of progress that Markets want to see. Odds for a proper US-Iran peace deal – Source: Polymarket. April 9, 2026 This kind of environment is particularly difficult for commodity pricing – Oil thrives on clarity of supply expectations, but current conditions offer anything but that. Instead, participants are stuck in a feedback loop of headline-driven volatility, where each new comment shifts sentiment without establishing a durable trend.The result is a market caught in limbo — no longer pricing worst-case escalation, but far from confident in a sustained de-escalation.As WTI breaks the $100 threshold yet again, the next directional move will likely depend less on technicals and more on whether diplomacy can turn from words into verifiable action. Until then, expect volatility to remain elevated and conviction to stay thin.As the situation looks to be more clear in the coming days, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to determine levels of interest and put the odds in the trader's favor to capitalize on the issue. Read More:Markets Today: Reality check hits markets as ceasefire fragility weighs, US PCE data in focusThe Ceasefire trade is on, but clouds remain – North American Session Market Wrap for April 8The Petrodollar trade is over, Dollar tumbles – EUR/USD, AUD/USD & Dollar Index (DXY) overviewUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – April 9, 2026. Source: TradingView WTI has seesawed after yesterday's large drop to $92.70 , having already rallied by 11% since.After touching the oversold RSI border and the bottom of the Pivotal War support (~$93), bulls have raged back into the commodity as uncertainty still looms – A very important test is now coming closer with the 4H 50-period MA ($104.62)Breaching back above would put the bullish panic-thesis fully back into actionRejecting it however would allow a more rangebound action ahead ($98 to $104 until Markets get more clarity)Breaking $98 again hints at a lower range ($92.70 to $98)WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels 4H 50-period MA / 1H 200-MA (~$104.20)$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance$110 psychological level2022 and War highs $117 to $120Support Levels$98 to $100 Major PivotWar Support Pivotal $93.00 to $95 $87 to $90 mini-Support (4H 200-period MA)2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Pre-War Support $63.80 to $641H Chart and action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – April 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking closer, WTI is once again stuck in uncertain back and forth action.The 200-Hour MA ($104.18) will be acting as a major barometer for traders.On the immediate action, the rebound in WTI is stalling as the 1H RSI is back to overbought.Traders will surely await for further news before moving on to the next tradesKeep an eye on a potential rangebound formation from $98 to $104 as Markets await for further clarity.Keep a close eye on the latest headlines!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Initial euphoria over the US-Iran ceasefire has been replaced by cautionEuropean equities are retreating, with the STOXX 600 sliding 0.6% and Germany’s DAX shedding 1.3%The "peace dividend" is being questioned as Brent crude claws back ground to trade around $97 a barrelThe high price of oil suggests an inflationary surge is "baked into" upcoming data, leading traders to still price in two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB before year-end.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?The relief rally that swept through global markets on Wednesday has hit a significant roadblock this morning. As we move through the European session, the initial euphoria surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire is being replaced by a cold dose of reality.Asian Session Recap: Cracks in the Ceasefire Asian markets started the day on a cautious footing as reports emerged of potential breaches in the fragile two-week truce.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.9%, with Japan’s Nikkei struggling to maintain its footing after yesterday's monster 5.4% rally.The primary concern for the region remains the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the ceasefire agreement, Iran’s continued influence over the waterway and reports of "tolls" for safe passage have kept shipping markets on edge.The RBNZ also caught some attention, holding rates steady as expected but maintaining a hawkish tilt, warning of further action if the recent energy-led inflation spike becomes entrenched.European Session: Oil Rebounds, Equities Retreat The initial euphoria has shifted to caution, with the STOXX 600 sliding 0.6% to 609.59.The retreat is widespread across the continent:Germany’s DAX is leading the downside, shedding 1.3%.France’s CAC 40 has retreated 0.7%.The "peace dividend" that saw oil prices collapse by nearly $20 yesterday is already being questioned. Brent crude has clawed back some ground, trading around $97 a barrel after Tehran warned that the terms of the deal were not being fully respected.The sector rotation today tells the story of a market moving back into a defensive crouch:The Losers: Cyclical and growth sectors are feeling the heat. Industrials are down 1%, while Luxury stocks have plunged 2.3%. Travel, Banks, and Tech have all slipped into the red, surrendering a portion of yesterday's outsized gains.The Outperformer: Energy is the lone bright spot, gaining 0.9%. This comes as oil prices creep higher, reflecting the market's skepticism that the supply chokepoint in the Middle East will be resolved anytime soon.The Inflation "Hangover"While Brent crude hasn't yet reclaimed the $100 level, a small silver lining for the bulls, it remains roughly 40% higher than pre-conflict levels. This is the "inflationary ghost" haunting the ECB and the Fed.Even with the ceasefire, the lag in energy costs suggests an inflationary surge is already baked into upcoming data.Eurozone bond yields are ticking higher today as traders realize that a two-week truce doesn't necessarily mean a dovish pivot. Markets are still pricing in two 25-basis-point hikes from the ECB before year-end.Currency Markets: The flight-to-safety trade has moderated slightly, but the US Dollar remains resilient.EUR/USD is hovering near 1.1660, struggling to extend its recent recovery.GBP/USD is sitting around 1.3390, eyeing the 1.3400 handle but lacking the momentum to break through.USD/JPY is trading near 158.80, as the Yen remains the laggard in this high-volatility environment.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) stalls at critical $4900/oz resistance as bear signal flashesBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookCeasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'The Outlook: All Eyes on Washington and Islamabad The rest of the day will likely be dominated by headlines regarding the upcoming Saturday morning talks in Islamabad. Markets are desperate for a permanent solution, but the "fragility" of this truce suggests we aren't out of the woods yet.Key Levels to Watch:Brent Crude: $100 remains the psychological line in the sand. A move back above this could reignite stagflation fears.S&P 500 Futures: Currently down 0.2%, watch the 5200 level for support if the "reality check" intensifies.US Core PCE (Due later): We are expecting a 0.4% rise. If this comes in hot, it will remind markets that even if peace holds, the inflationary "hangover" from the last five weeks of conflict is far from over. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - WTI Oil WTI crude (US Oil) is currently undergoing a "reality check" following the massive sell-off from the $115.00 peak. On the H4 chart, the price action has found immediate support around the $94.00 - $95.00 zone, but the recovery is struggling to clear the 100-period SMA (purple line) currently sitting at $98.89.The RSI has bounced from oversold territory but remains capped below the 50-midline, suggesting the prevailing momentum is still skewed to the downside. While we are seeing a minor relief rally, the series of lower highs persists.Resistance: A break above $100.00 is essential to shift the intraday bias toward a retest of the $107.50 level.Support: Failure to hold $94.00 could see a swift slide toward the 200-period SMA (yellow line) near $88.83, which aligns with the key psychological and structural support at $90.00.WTI Oil Four-Hour (H4) Chart, April 9, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Note: Traders should be wary of "headline risk" today. We saw yesterday how quickly sentiment can pivot on a single announcement. Until we see actual tankers moving freely through the Strait without "tolls" or military escort, the risk remains skewed to the upside for commodities and downside for risk assets.Stay nimble.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsYesterday evening, a two-week ceasefire was reached and Markets have exploded, easing their war premiums and discountsCrude Oil has now broken $100 and allowing Stocks and other assets to rally, at the cost of the Petrodollar Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Markets have taken a huge turn after what could have been a disastrous escalation in the Middle East.The Market had been preparing for the possibility of a less intense conflict in the region following the commencement of US-Iran talks on March 23rd. Communications in wartime is a foggy terrain, as enemies attempt to deceive each other and reassure their citizens, but the reality is often far less clear.As the legendary portfolio manager Michael Burry said yesterday (post deleted), by issuing threats of "the end of a civilization" and other big words, the US President was preparing the terrain for a massive TACO.When markets rally into the close as the situation gradually clears, it signals that someone likely knows something (as yesterday's explosion showed). Dow Jones 1H Chart. April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView (An in-depth Stock Market outlook is coming up around the mid-session)Luckily, it is a very positive factor for the World, which is positively affecting Markets; the conflict is officially stopping for at least two weeks and could lead to a longer-term peace prospect if both sides respect their commitments.As always in ceasefire deals, some points will remain contentious, and the situation remains a bit unclear. If we were to listen to President Trump, most of the points from the 15-point draft have been accepted.I invite you to pay close attention to the details to know more about whether the ceasefire is to be breached.In any case, the asset that was the first and the most affected by the news is Crude Oil, naturally, with a gigantic 20% tumble that came right after the news and keeps extending.The commodity is now trading below $95 a barrel and looks to continue correcting (at least hopefully). After 6 weeks of severely restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, many Asian and European countries faced oil shortages and droughts.So this couldn't have come at a better time. Oil 4H Chart. April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView North American Markets have just opened and to say that Wall Street is in ecstasy is nothing short of an understatement.Nasdaq is leading US Indexes with a +3% extension from its Tuesday close and its peers are not shy of similar performances.With the US Dollar getting battered by the lower Crude prices and easier Market sentiment, Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Ceasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'NZD/USD tests major 0.57 support ahead of RBNZ meeting – FX Technical LevelsNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Global Equities have just erased 28 days of corrections in only one day, leading to what could be annual gains in this morning's recovery session.This is quite a stellar turn of events – This could leave fragile expectations if the situation was to sour for any reason, but at least, for now, Bulls are back in fury.Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index double top really materialized into a gigantic drop, which will have its own effect on individual FX pairs – Keep closely track of WTI and Brent prices, as their drops should see an almost 1 to 1 effect on the USD.To take advantage of this situation, check out individual pairs and look for trades that follow this Oil-USD correlation. An in-depth look at the Dollar will be addressed later today.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels99.40 to 99.50 Momentum Pivot100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)May 2025 Resistance 101.30 to 101.80Support Levels98.70 to 99.00 War Support (breaking?) – bearish below98.00 Key Mid-Range SupportSupport 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 8, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar has given up about 50% of its gains against its FX peers since the beginning of the war (and the move has accelerated).After the gigantic overnight drops, some mean-reversion is ongoing which could offer opportunities. US Dollar Seasonal performance throughout the first quarter – Source: Market-Bulls.com For those who haven't seen our past week's edition, this is a seasonal performance chart for the US Dollar. April is its weakest month of the year, so that itself could weigh even more on the Greenback.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, April 8, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Canadian Dollar has also given up a large part of its gains against its FX peers with WTI easing and better geopolitical prospects.Holding slightly better against Europeans relative to the US Dollar, as long as Oil corrects, the CAD may still be under pressure in coming days.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, April 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite its relative weakness against FX majors, the Loonie is at least outperforming the US Dollar in the recent Market turn.Forming a double top at the extremes of its 1.3550 - 1.3950 large range, the North-American pair has space to correct.On the immediate outlook, a pullback from oversold levels seems to be forming – Look at the 4H 50-period MA (1.39) which would provide optimal entries if prices get there.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA (1.39)1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.3950 mini-resistance (Range highs and double top)1.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels1.3850 Momentum Pivot (testing)1.38 Mini-support +/- 150 pips1.3750 Pivotal Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)October 2024 Support 1.3450 to 1.35US and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar is absolutely packed until next Wednesday.Friday will however gather the most attention with US CPI, University of Michigan (Inflation expectations!) and Canadian Employment.With Middle East developments easing, keep a close eye on Ceasefire news and Oil!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) rallied to near $4,850/oz after the US-Iran ceasefire and subsequent oil price slide, but stalled and pulled back toward $4,780 due to concerns over the truce's fragility.Price movements are supported by US Dollar weakness and market pricing for interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026, which provide a floor for the non-yielding bullion.Technically, gold is struggling at the critical $4900 resistance level (the 200 SMA)Most Read: Ceasefire Crash: Oil tumbles 15% as US-Iran deal unwinds global 'fear trade'Gold prices experienced a rollercoaster session on Wednesday, April 8, 2026, as a sudden shift in the geopolitical landscape forced traders to reassess their risk premiums.After testing intraday highs near $4,850/oz level following news that a two-week ceasefire has been reached between the US and Iran.Spot gold (XAU/USD) faced a corrective pullback toward the $4,780 level as the day progressed however as risks of a ceasefire violation and overall concern keep bulls in check.For weeks, the "war premium" has been the primary engine for the decline in precious metals. The reason being that the rise in Oil prices stoked inflationary fears and thus weighed on Gold prices.However, the announcement, which includes the crucial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz saw oil prices slide back below $100 per barrel and a cooling of the safe-haven bid that has characterized Q1 2026. This led to the Gold rally.What is Driving Movements Today? The US-Iran Ceasefire: The 48-hour ultimatum previously set by the US administration ended with a diplomatic breakthrough. This has eased immediate fears of a wider regional conflagration, leading to profit-taking in the "safe-haven" complex. As we often see, gold is the first to fly on fear and the first to be sold when the clouds begin to part.Dollar Softness & Rate Cut Bets: Despite the de-escalation, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under pressure, slipping 0.8% against the Euro. Markets are increasingly pricing in aggressive rate cuts for the second half of 2026 as global growth forecasts from the World Bank suggest a slowdown in emerging markets. Lower yields continue to provide a sturdy floor for non-yielding bullion.The "Turbo-Gold" Effect: Silver outperformed its yellow sibling today, rallying nearly 7% to hit $77/oz. This "turbo-charged" move in silver often signals a broader bullish conviction in the metals sector, suggesting that even if gold pauses to breathe, the underlying trend remains firmly to the upside.Risks Moving Forward: A Double-Edged Sword While the ceasefire is a welcome relief for global stability, it introduces a period of binary risk for gold investors:Fragility of the Truce: This is a two-week window. Any violation of the terms or a failure to reach a long-term agreement during this period could see gold gap down toward the $4500/oz support zone almost and potentially lower.Central Bank Appetite: A key risk to the downside would be a pivot in central bank behavior. While J.P. Morgan and UBS anticipate continued strong buying (averaging 585 tonnes per quarter), any indication that high prices are finally deterring official sector accumulation could remove a primary support pillar.The Inflation Conundrum: If energy prices stabilize due to the Hormuz reopening, we could see a faster-than-expected cooling of headline inflation. This might allow the Fed and markets to price in rate cuts again which in turn could aid Gold bulls and facilitate a push beyond the $5000/oz handle.Technical Outlook - XAU/USD Gold (XAU/USD) on the H4 timeframe is currently locked in a critical battle between recovering momentum and major technical resistance.After rebounding from the $4250 floor, the precious metal has carved out a series of higher lows, successfully reclaiming the 50 and 100 SMAs.However, the rally is now stalling as it encounters the 200 SMA (currently at $4903) and the psychological $5000 barrier. Today’s price action shows a slight retreat, mirroring the RSI "BEAR" signal which suggests momentum is overextended in the short term.Upside: A clean break above $4900 is required to challenge the $5000 level.Downside: Support sits firmly at the $4688 pivot. Should this fail, a retest of the SMA cluster near $4615 is likely.Expect consolidation as the market digests recent gains before the next major impulsive move.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 8, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The immediate geopolitical heat is cooling, but the structural bull case for gold underpinned by central bank diversification and a return to a global monetary order remains intact. Expect volatility to remain high as we navigate this two-week diplomatic window.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks erase their past day gains as the tone largely soursThe dip-buying free lunch is now expired with the Trump deadline approaching fast. Traders are getting prepared for escalationExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Hoping for the best amid historically uncertain times is the best that one can do. It has worked in the past, but this doesn't come without cost. This ongoing conflict in Iran has been unpredictable to say the least, and this only reflects the current US administration's erratic stance.Both sides have reportedly sought a deal, but to what extent is the key question. A military buildup has once again amassed in the region in previous weeks to pressure the Islamic regime into a deal that would allow it to give up most of its leverage, leading to the President calling for a deadline to reach a truce by 8:00 P.M (ET).UPDATE: Trump is considering another extension of the deadline as talks are reportedly advancing – Markets are rebounding on the newsHowever, just yesterday, Iran rejected the initial plan as the IRGC pleaded for reparations for the damage and denied any idea that would compromise their ballistic missile capabilities. Two points that would be difficult to hear for the allies after the damage done across the Middle East, particularly to energy and civilian infrastructure. Oil and Dow Jones Inverted correlation. Source: TradingView – April 7, 2026 While the ease in tone from the past few weeks helped soothe Stock Markets from overly short positioning, WTI Crude kept breaking new weekly highs, indicating how cloudy the situation truly remains:While the inverted correlation between the commodity and Stock Markets ceased last week, the daily rises in Oil are hurting Equities again.Overall, the free lunch is over for dip-buyers, with the bar consequently rising for further progress in the stock markets.Bulls will need to see a proper truce to hope for an actual rally – 47,000 in the Dow Jones is the level to watch for a positive outlook!To get ready for the coming deadline, let’s examine the intraday charts, scenarios, and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Oil retreats, Gold rises as cautious tone dominates, Trump deadline now in focusChart alert: Japan’s Nikkei 225 is flashing bearish breakdown conditions below the 50-day MAThe first War inflation tests – Markets Weekly OutlookCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:21 AM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 7, 2026 Today's Market picture is struggling to gather any form of positivity, particularly with the largest titles struggling.Apple is leading to the downside, down 4.55% and leading a Mag 7 tumble – Even Tesla and Walmart are among the struggling names.Only the Energy Sector is managing well with the ongoing persistent rally in WTI.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow freshly rejected its 47,000 resistance, forming a double top as the mood progressively soured across the asset board.Sellers are taking the immediate advantage and are currently breaking the current momentum pivot zone around 46,300.The next key level to test is 46,170 (4H 50-period MA), any continuation below would reinstate the major war downtrend.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsResistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (bullish above)Momentum Resistance 47,400 to 47,600Key Resistance at 48,000Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200Support LevelsMarch 8 War lows Resistance now Pivot 46,300 (breaking! Bearish below)45,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,750Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Some live news just changed the Market flows, with Trump reportedly considering another pushback to his deadline, easing a 2% drop in the Nasdaq back above the 24,000 key psychological level.Uncertainty remains: Any close above 24,000 maintains a hopeful path ahead, while dropping below should see further bearish momentumNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsFebruary Resistance 24,150 to 24,200 (immediate test)24,450 to 25,550 resistance (4H 200-period MA)Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsMajor 2026 Pivot (bear below) 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,65022,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support22,600 August 2025 Support ZoneEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Sellers tried to push the S&P 500 back into the bear channel but Trump's latest deadline pushback helped to build a path to rebound.As long as the action remains below 6,600, bears retain the advantage (Watch out for the 4H 50-period MA acting as support – 6,518).S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,580 to 6,610 Main Resistance (rejected)6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,490 to 6,520 October lows Pivot6,442 Past week dip6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)January 2025 ATH 6,152Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Crude oil prices are spiking due to the Trump administration's 8:00 PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.A severe supply shock is being priced in following reported strikes on Iran's Kharg Island and a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.The physical market indicates panic over immediate availability, as evidenced by WTI prompt spread backwardation widening to over $16/bbl.The immediate price outlook is determined by three scenarios: further escalation (targeting $140/bbl), a diplomatic ceasefire (pulling back to $100/bbl), or a prolonged, rangebound stalemate ($105–$115).Most Read: Chart alert: WTI crude oil whipsawed above 20-day MA ahead of Trump’s speech and US-Iran ceasefire hopesCrude oil prices have undergone massive price swings this Tuesday, with WTI Crude piercing the $106/bbl mark and Brent trading firmly above $111/bbl reaching a high around $114.30/bbl.As we have seen so often in recent months, the market remains entirely headline-driven, but today’s developments have added a layer of geopolitical risk that is difficult to overstate.The Catalyst: A Looming Deadline The primary driver behind today's spike is the 8:00 PM ET deadline set by the Trump administration for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump’s rhetoric at yesterday’s press conference suggesting that Iran’s infrastructure could be "taken out in one night", has sent a wave of risk aversion through global markets.The threat is no longer just theoretical. Reports of strikes targeting Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hubs have traders pricing in a severe supply shock. Given that the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, the "fear premium" is back with a vengeance.After the strikes on Kharg island a Reuters report stated that Iran officially threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait "if the situation gets out of control”.The stakes for the global economy are staggering, as the Bab al-Mandeb Strait currently facilitates approximately 12% of all global seaborne trade. Market analysts warn that a total closure of this chokepoint could send crude oil prices soaring toward the $150 per barrel mark.With the Trump administration's deadline now less than 10 hours away, the market is bracing for a potential supply shock that could redefine the global energy map overnight. Source: Sunday Guardian Risks and Potential Scenarios Moving forward, we are looking at three distinct scenarios that could dictate price action over the hours and days:The Escalation Scenario (The Bull Case): If the 8:00 PM deadline passes without a resolution and we see further military strikes on Iranian energy facilities, oil could easily scream through $120/bbl toward $140/bbl. The damage to infrastructure like the Al Taweelah smelter and Kharg Island suggests that even if a ceasefire is eventually reached, the supply side will remain constrained for months.The Diplomatic Breakthrough (The Bear Case): US allies including Egypt and Turkey are reportedly pushing for a 45-day temporary ceasefire. If Tehran softens its stance on the Strait of Hormuz, we could see a massive "long squeeze," sending prices back toward the $100 psychological level almost instantly.The Grinding Stalemate: Iran has so far rejected the 45-day proposal, demanding permanent sanctions relief and reconstruction guarantees. A prolonged standoff with sporadic headlines would likely keep oil rangebound but elevated between $105 and $115, supported by the ongoing SPR releases from the US Department of Energy to curb price pressures.Technical Outlook: Where to Next? From a technical standpoint, WTI crude is exhibiting strong bullish momentum on the H4 chart, currently trading near the $106 handle. The price has successfully cleared the psychological $100.00 mark, which now serves as a primary support level.The immediate trend is supported by the 100-period SMA (blue) at $96.13, while the 200-period SMA (gold) remains far below at $85.56, underscoring the aggressive nature of this rally. With price action making higher highs and holding above previous resistance-turned-support zones, the technical path of least resistance remains skewed to the upside, targeting the $110.00 level next.Physical Tightness: It’s not just speculative noise; the physical market is screaming tightness. The NYMEX WTI prompt spread has widened to a backwardation of over $16/bbl, nearly double where it sat at the end of March.When you see a prompt spread widen to a $16/bbl backwardation, the market isn't just "bullish", it's in a state of panic over immediate availability. In a normal market (contango), future prices are higher to cover storage costs.In extreme backwardation, the premium for "oil right now" skyrockets.WTI Crude Oil Four-Hour Chart, April 7, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The Bottom Line The short-term trend is turning cautiously bearish. If the price fails to hold above $106.00, we could see a deeper retracement toward the $104.22 support level. However, given the geopolitical risks, any further supply shocks could quickly invalidate this technical pullback and push prices back toward $120.00.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices (Brent and WTI) jumped due to escalating geopolitical risk from the US-Iran conflictEuropean stocks were muted as Eurozone growth slowed to its weakest expansion in nine monthsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) remains strongly supported by the Federal Reserve's divergence in interest rate policy and anticipation of sticky inflation ahead of key CPI dataMost Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Oil prices saw a renewed bid this Tuesday as geopolitical risk premiums return to the forefront. Brent crude futures (LCOc1) have climbed 1.3% to trade around $111.21, while WTI (CLc1) continues to outperform, jumping 2.1% to sit near the $114.73 mark.The primary catalyst remains the escalating war of words between Washington and Tehran. Markets are on edge as a US-imposed deadline approaches for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for a fifth of the world’s global oil supply. President Trump’s recent threats to target Iranian infrastructure, including power plants and bridges, have significantly heightened the "fear factor" for energy traders.The start of the European session did see Oil prices fall to trade in the red for the day but the risk of escalation remains firmly in play.The rejection of a US-led ceasefire proposal by Iran (via Pakistan) suggests that diplomacy is hanging by a thread. Tehran’s insistence on a permanent end to hostilities, rather than a temporary pause, has left little room for a near-term resolution.As we approach 8 p.m. EDT deadline, volatility is expected to remain high. If the deadline passes without a diplomatic breakthrough or a de-escalation in rhetoric, the technical bias for both Brent and WTI remains firmly to the upside, with the psychological $115 level for WTI now well within reach.European shares muted as caution reigns, Euro Area growth slows European equities returned from the Easter break to a cautious landscape, with the STOXX 600 flatlining as geopolitical risks intensified. While the energy sector gained on rising crude prices, the broader market remains tethered to the looming US-Iran deadline.ASML led the tech sector lower, sliding 4.2% following news of proposed US export curbs on chipmaking gear to China. This regulatory pressure continues to be a primary headwind for European tech.Conversely, Universal Music Group provided a rare spark, surging 15% on a massive €55.75 billion takeover bid from Pershing Square.The final Eurozone Composite PMI for March was revised slightly higher to 50.7, yet it confirms a sharp slowdown from February’s 51.9. This marks the weakest expansion in nine months, as the Middle East conflict continues to weigh on private-sector activity. Source: S&P Global Key Takeaways:Stagflationary Signals: Service sector growth has effectively hit a wall, while input costs surged to a three-year high, driven by soaring energy prices.Labor Market Cooling: Business confidence has slumped to a one-year low, triggering the fastest rate of job cuts in 13 months.Demand Weakness: Falling new orders and weakening export demand suggest further downside risks for the second quarter.Overall, the data highlights an economy under significant duress. With output prices at their highest since early 2024, the ECB faces a tightening corner between persistent inflation and a cooling macro environment.Gold turns green on the day but downside risks remain significant Gold recovered Asian session losses early in European trade, The precious metal was trading at $4682/oz as markets wait with bated breath on developments in the Middle East.Any positive development around a deal with Iran could send Gold prices higher, while further escalation and attacks on infrastructure as promised by President Trump could lead to a selloff as inflationary risks will rise once more.On a more positive note for Gold prices, the PBOC increased its gold holdings for the 17th consecutive month. China's Gold reserves increased to 74.38 million ounces (Prev. 74.22 M), and the value of gold reserves was $342.7 bln vs the previous $387.6 bln.Read More:The first War inflation tests – Markets Weekly OutlookBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session is quiet today with a host of PMI data already released.The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains well-supported, trading within a 100.00-100.50 range as markets brace for tonight’s White House deadline. Following Friday’s upside surprise in payrolls, the Greenback continues to benefit from a resilient domestic economy and a shifting interest rate narrative.Key Drivers:Fed Divergence: While trading partners are pricing in multiple rate cuts, the Fed remains flat. Persistent energy price spikes could force markets to price in actual hikes, a significant tailwind for the USD.Data Watch: Tomorrow’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s CPI (expected to jump to 3.4%) will be critical. Any signs of sticky inflation will likely cement the Dollar's bullish bias.Treasury Outflows: A $90bn drop in foreign Treasury holdings is more likely a sign of EM central banks intervention to support their own currencies rather than a fundamental "exit" from the Dollar.The Outlook: Unless we see a major miss in today's ADP jobs data, the DXY should remain bid. We’ll also be monitoring NY Fed President John Williams at 2:30pm CET; any hawkish shift from this known dove would provide further fuel for the Dollar's ascent. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 The UK100 (H4) exhibits a strong bullish recovery, recently reclaiming both the 100 and 200-period SMAs. After a period of consolidation, price action has cleared the psychological 10,400 level, signaling a shift in mid-term sentiment.However, the RSI is currently flashing a "BEAR" divergence signal near overbought territory, suggesting the rally may be overextended.Upside: A sustained break above 10,500 targets the key resistance at 10,786.Downside: Failure to hold 10,405 (SMA 100) could see a retest of support at 10,269. Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Shift from outperformance to weakness: The Nikkei 225 has reversed sharply since late February, turning into one of the worst-performing indices amid rising stagflation fears driven by elevated oil prices and prolonged US–Iran tensions.Macro headwinds intensifying: Japan’s heavy reliance on oil imports, coupled with a weakening corporate earnings outlook (falling earnings revision index), is reinforcing bearish sentiment and downside pressure on equities.Bearish technical structure in play: The index remains trapped in a descending triangle below key resistance; a break below 52,070 may extend losses toward 50,160 and potentially the 200-day moving average, unless 54,095 is reclaimed. Japan’s stock market has continued to wobble since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, fading its initial bullish sparkle seen at the start of the year, where the Nikkei 225 was one of the top performers with a gain of 17% from 1 January 2026 to 27 February 2026.Stagflation fear dragged down the Nikkei 225 to become an underperformer Fig. 1: Key global stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 6 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Fig. 2: Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japan, US & Europe as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). In a reversal of fortune, Nikkei 225 has now fallen to the bottom, becoming one of the worst-performing stock indices, with a loss of 9.2% recorded from February 28, 2026, to April 6, 2026 (see Fig. 1).Japan is a major oil importer, and the current US-Iran war, which is entering its 39th day, is not showing any clear signs of de-escalation at this juncture. Iran rejected a ceasefire deal yesterday after US President Trump’s latest deadline demand due today, Wednesday, 7 April at 8.00 p.m. Eastern time for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz before US strikes on Iranian energy plants and key infrastructures.Benchmark crude oil prices continue to trade firmly above $100/barrel, and trend-following market participants may trigger a bullish herding behaviour to continue bidding up the prices of oil.The West Texas crude oil may rally towards the next intermediate resistances of $124.40 and $131.30/132.67.Read more: Chart alert: WTI crude oil whipsawed above 20-day MA ahead of Trump’s speech and US-Iran ceasefire hopesHence, further rallies in oil prices above $100/barrel increase the stagflation risk narrative, in turn, triggering a negative feedback loop into the Japanese economy, creating further bearish sentiment in the Nikkei 225.In addition, the Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japan has slipped to a 5-month low of 0.16 as of 27 March 2026 from 0.42 printed on 6 March 2026, suggesting that sell-side analysts on average are less optimistic about the Japanese corporate earnings outlook (see Fig. 2).Let’s now look at the technical factors to determine Nikkei 225’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).Nikkei 225 – Oscillating within a minor “Descending Triangle” range Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 7 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Since the 11 March 2026 minor swing high, the price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index have been oscillating within a minor bearish continuation “Descending Triangle” range configuration.The recent rebound of 8% seen from the 30 March 2026 low to 2 April 2026 high has stalled at the upper boundary of the “Descending Triangle” (see Fig. 3).Watch the 53,628/54,095 short-term pivotal resistance zone for potential bearish reversal back down to retest the “Descending Triangle” range bottom. A break below 52,070 increases the odds of exposing the next intermediate support at 50,630/50,160 in the first step.Below 50,160 opens scope for a bearish breakdown of the “Descending Triangle” range for a further potential down move towards the 48,835/48,250 long-term pivotal support zone (also the key 200-day moving average).On the flip side, a clearance with an hourly close above 54,095 invalidates the bearish scenario for another leg of corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistance at 55,130 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the Nikkei 225 The hourly RSI momentum indicator has just staged a bearish breakdown below its ascending support at the 50 level.The price actions of the Japan 225 have printed a “lower high” right below the “Descending Triangle” range resistance. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 6 After the Easter holidays, it seems that Markets are still praying for miracles. Over the weekend, the situation in the Middle East did not worsen significantly. On Friday, two U.S. pilots had to escape after an F-15 was downed by the IRGC, leading to a massive manhunt. Fortunately, the pilots were located after extensive efforts. This search resulted in a notable decrease in the bombardment of IRGC targets and coincided with the United States' efforts to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Iran. The deadline for this ceasefire is tomorrow evening at 8:00 P.M ET (make sure to mark it on your calendars!). If no agreement is reached by then, traders can expect chaos in the markets. The actual lack of progress or clarity is reflected in WTI and Brent Crude Oil prices, which have remained unchanged since Friday, close to their relative highs. This suggests that other assets may be adopting a maybe too optimistic outlook! Is this delay a sign of mispricing or just waiting it out? It’s too early to determine whether oil bulls or stock bulls will prevail, but one thing is certain: we will know more by tomorrow evening. US and global stock indexes (those that were open on Easter Monday) managed to rebound as hopes for deals improved market sentiment. However, in the absence of an agreement, a sharp increase in selling pressure could occur. So far, bearish positions related to the conflict are at least starting to unwind. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have benefited from this daily optimism, bouncing back to levels not seen since March 26 (BTC reached $70,000 again today!)An Easter miracle is still a possibility, but with Iran standing firm on their demands and rejecting the latest US proposal, the chances for a ceasefire appear slim. Read More:Easter bunnies are out in a calm session – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookChart alert: WTI crude oil whipsawed above 20-day MA ahead of Trump’s speech and US-Iran ceasefire hopesThe first War inflation tests – Markets Weekly OutlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 6, 2026 The heatmap of today's action is still fractured as the buying could not find any regional focus – This points to general Index repositioning ahead of this week's key CPI release and tomorrow's Trump Deadline!Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Asset movement was relatively all around the place as most traders are still expected to return tomorrow after a well-deserved Easter break.Expect volatility and volumes to pick up again promptly!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 6, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The better move was also seen in the US Dollar, losing against almost of its FX Peers – The week will be huge for Currency Markets, with Inflation data all over the globe which may just start to reflect the impact of higher energy prices.Check out more on key FX events for the week right here.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will see the release of large amounts of Macro data, including PMIs for Europe, Australia and Canada. For the rest, keep an eye on US Durable Goods data and Fed Speeches!As always, keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are rallying timidly after a long Easter weekendEven with Oil still at $112, Traders are slowly coming back to lift US Markets but heavy catalysts could be awaitingExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Traders are slowly returning from a well-deserved Easter break, with volumes set to recover fully tomorrow.With the week starting on a softer pace, the US Dollar is taking a step back to leave some space for other FX currencies, Bitcoin (reaching $70,000!) and Equities after having worked overtime until today.Optimism had made a sharp return throughout last week as Traders began to price in a proper truce in Iran, but this isn't such a given, as Iran reportedly still believes it can leverage the US's precipitated demands for a deal to tilt the scales in its favor.Stocks across the globe are still way off their War troughs, with market sentiment tilting more towards a short operation than a catastrophic long war, as observed in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq – enough to limit a prolonged bear trend.The War itself is advancing at a remarkable pace, but the main element of turmoil across the region remains the Strait of Hormuz and its link to global Oil prices. It has been easy for Participants to ignore the pricing of imminent Rate Hikes in upcoming meetings of global Central Banks, but this reality could hit like a train if WTI and Brent remain above $100 for much longer.Tomorrow will be decisive in that aspect, as the US President announced throughout the weekend that Tuesday evening (8:00 PM ET) will be the deadline for a deal – And Iran just rejected the proposed 45-Day Ceasefire deal that would lead to a longer-lasting peace.The Islamic regime is still persistent in maintaining its threatening ballistic missile program, which has caused damage all around the Middle East since the commencement of the War.To get ready for this week, which looks to be a heavy one (US CPI on Friday!) , let’s examine the intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Discover:The first War inflation tests – Markets Weekly OutlookChart alert: WTI crude oil whipsawed above 20-day MA ahead of Trump’s speech and US-Iran ceasefire hopesUSD/JPY under pressure as markets price in a BoJ rate hikeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (11:52 AM ET) – Source: TradingView – April 6, 2026 Today's Market heatmap is heavily fractured, with gains and losses spread throughout the entire board, but bulls taking the advantage – Such spread out gains indicate Index buying rather than actual tactical positioning (with sentiment playing tricks, players are reluctant for precision plays).Netflix, AMD, Intel and other Electronics are doing heavy lifting, pushing the Nasdaq to outperform other Indexes on this thin Monday trading – Expect a lot of volatility in coming days!Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is stuck in a 46,300-47,000 range as traders await further clarity on the Middle East situation.Still, the bearish trend has now completely stalled, allowing a more balanced price action ahead. Look for a clean break and a 4H candle close above/below the range levels for a breakout – A session close will confirm the direction.Tomorrow's deadline will be decisive in determining the direction, as it's still difficult to assume a full-on bullish rebound before then (even if the technicals are hinting at one).With its RSI Momentum tilting higher (relative to the S&P 500), it will be poised for more upside than its peers in a bullish event.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsResistance 47,000 +/- 100 Points (bullish above)Momentum Resistance 47,400 to 47,600Key Resistance at 48,000Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200 Support LevelsMarch 8 War lows Resistance now Pivot 46,300 (bearish below)45,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280 Next Minor Support 44,200 to 44,500Major Support 43,500 to 43,750Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has outperformed its peers in the recent rebound, up 5.70% from its past Monday lows – But this outperformance may pay interest in coming trading.Compared to the rebounding Dow Jones RSI, the momentum for the Tech-Heavy index is now turning lower and pointing to imminent stalling at the February 24,150-24,200 resistance.Remaining above 24,000 on Wednesday morning (post Trump deadline) will maintain a bullish short-term outlook.Breaking the psychological level points to the opposite.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsFebruary Resistance 24,150 to 24,200 (immediate test)24,450 to 25,550 resistance (4H 200-period MA)Key Resistance 25,000 to 25,200 (Range highs – Long-term Bullish above)Support LevelsMajor 2026 Pivot (bear below) 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,65022,900 to 23,000 higher timeframe major support22,600 August 2025 Support ZoneEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is now grinding to break its War downtrend, officially having done so for now but will have to confirm on Wednesday's open, in a similar condition as the Nasdaq.Currently testing the key 6,610 level (failed double-bottom from the War drop), bulls will want to see a clear extension above to reconfirm a prolonged reboundRejecting back below 6,600 puts the bears back into control (return in the bear channel)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,580 to 6,610 Main Resistance (testing)6,680 to 6,700 Mini-resistance6,740 Key intraday resistancePivotal Resistance 6,770 to 6,800Support Levels6,490 to 6,520 October lows Pivot6,442 Past week dip6,360 to 6,380 Key August 2025 Support & Channel Lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)January 2025 ATH 6,152Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Volatility driven by ceasefire uncertainty: WTI crude surged above $102.25 to as high as $116 before reversing sharply, with an intraday whipsaw driven by conflicting signals around a potential US–Iran ceasefire and Trump’s rhetoric.Ceasefire expectations skewed to June: Prediction market assigns low odds of a ceasefire by end-April (~22.5%) but sees a higher probability (~51.5%) by end-June, keeping near-term geopolitical risk elevated.WTI bullish trend intact but key levels critical: The breakout above $102.25 signals a continuing bullish sequence, with upside toward $124–$132 if momentum holds, while a break below $102.25 risks a pullback toward $96–$93. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: WTI crude oil minor pullback over, start of new bullish leg for breakout above $102.25,” published on 27 March 2027.The West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) has staged the expected bullish move, where it cleared above $102.25 per barrel and hit a closing level of $112.84 last Thursday, 2 April 2026, before the Easter holiday.Market participants continue to discount the “optimism of a ceasefire deal” between the US and Iran from US President Trump’s social media posts and public speeches made in the past week.In today’s early Asian session (Monday, 6 April 2026), the price actions of the West Texas oil CFD gapped up by 2.9% to print a current intraday high of $116.17, just shy of its 4-year high of $119.54 recorded on 9 March 2026, as the market digested the possibilities of further hostilities between US and Iran where Trump posted a social media with foul language, warning Iran’s power infrastructure will be destroyed if Tehran does not open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, 7 April 2026 8.00 p.m. Eastern Time (an extension of an earlier Monday deadline).Interestingly, the earlier gains of the West Texas oil CFD were all wiped out as it declined by 2.3% at $110.27 at the time of writing.Ceasefire hopes are the primary driver of the current intraday whipsawing in oil prices. An Axios report stated that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that may lead to a permanent end to the war. In addition, US President Trump said he plans a news conference on Monday at 1.00 p.m. Eastern Time.Prediction market is still expecting a US-Iran ceasefire in June 2026 Fig. 1: Polymarket US-Iran ceasefire timing odds as of 6 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The above chart reflects the market-implied probability of an official ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran on various specific dates from the prediction market platform, Polymarket, where participants trade contracts based on the probability of future events.As of Monday, 6 April 2026, the probability of a ceasefire by 30 April remains low at 22.5%, while the likelihood rises significantly to 51.5% by 30 June (see Fig. 1).Let’s now focus on the potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of WTI crude oil from a technical analysis perspectiveWTI Crude Oil – Minor bullish impulsive up sequence from 23 March 2026 low remains intact Fig. 2: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 27 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView). The West Texas oil CFD (a proxy of the WTI crude oil futures) managed to stage a bullish breakout last Thursday, 2 April 2026, from a three-week sideways range configurationHence, a potential minor bullish impulsive up move sequence has kick-started from its 23 March 2026 low (see Fig. 2).Watch the $102.25 short-term pivotal support to maintain the near-term bullish bias. A clearance above $116.56/119.54 sees the next intermediate resistances to come in at $124.40 and $131.30/132.67(also close to a Fibonacci extension cluster).However, failure to hold at $102.25 and an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective pull-back to retest the next intermediate support zone at $96.44/93.70 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on WTI crude oil The price actions have continued to oscillate within a minor ascending channel in place since the 23 March 2026 low, with its channel support coming in at around $102.25The hourly RSI momentum indicator is still holding above its pull-back support at around the 50 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report just dropped into a ghost town but came with a major surprise: +178K vs 60K expectations. This completely erases the prior month's -92K release (which did get revised down to -133K – But even this got overshaded by today's releaseThis led to a drop in the Unemployment rate to 4.3% (from 4.4%) with the unrounded number at 4.256%With major US equity and commodity markets fully closed for Good Friday, only Futures are opened and they are quite stuck, in an abbreviated holiday session (Open until 13:30 ET), Wall Street is left holding a massive data release with almost nowhere to trade it.US Stock Futures and Bonds still sold off as the data pushes back against Cuts even further, as if they were even part of the discussion – The US Dollar is up slightly but its change is measly.As the economy really seems to be picking up again, traders will have to remain careful on the possible pricing for hikes – That will have to be seen again in the next few months, as the data will progressively reflect higher energy costs.(Gas prices have been out of this world to be fair – This will weigh on activity).Stock Futures are selling off Dow Jones 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Some algos lost their minds at the release but this did not last long – Stocks remain below their bearish trendline.Bonds follow suit Bonds 1H Chart. April 3, 2026 – Source: TradingView Happy Holidays and enjoy the long weekend!Things could get very wild at the Monday re-open but could only really pick up on Tuesday, with the heaviest participants only coming back at that time Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 2 The April Fool's joke is officially over for markets, and if anything is certain, it is the bitter taste of confusion across today's Market action.This week’s nascent hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East vanished after yesterday's President Trump's speech. Following a White House address from President Trump that completely reversed his recent softer tone, Markets repriced the reality of the US-Iran conflict as the five-week deadline is now delusional.Oil markets are saying that hopes for peace were nothing more than a cruel fakeout, but Stock Markets are somewhat still believing in the narrative.WTI Crude exploded by 14% overnight, flashing up to $114 before settling back above the $110 mark, an unrealistic pricing for a full on rebound investors simply cannot build a sustained case for improving sentiment. Nevertheless, it seems that bulls are now assuming that things can't get much worse from here after ~10% corrections across all major US Benchmarks.US equities did face a chaotic morning: Stocks gapped significantly lower at the open as algorithms and traders scrambled to dump risk from the run in Energy commodities. However, the selling pressure eventually exhausted itself as the session went on. The reasoning is confusing, but could come from different factors: Frantic short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s critical Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the long Easter weekend helped major benchmarks claw back their losses, finishing the session mostly unchanged, particularly with less Participants trading with the Holiday period.Precious metals are saying a different story – Silver remains the ultimate barometer for market mood right now, though buyers couldn't withhold the pressure in WTI as deleveraging continues in the volatile commodity Market.But it's not like it was only about a safe-haven dump, with bonds catching a strong bid. Yields are dropping as persistently elevated oil prices could now start to fuel fears that energy costs will drag the global economy into a deeper recession. This is being compounded by underlying credit stress (like the Blue Owl run situation) that is slowly creeping back onto the radar.The next 5 days will be tricky for Traders, with NFP coming up at the same time as Good Friday, and not even mentioning Easter Monday that should once again see low Market participation across the globe. Read More:Crude Oil (WTI & Brent) keeps playing tricks on Markets 32 days into the Iran WarDow Jones & US Stock Market NFP levels: Wall Street scrambles for impossible certainty after the April Fool's fakeoutNFP Preview: Can the labor market withstand the "Stagflation" Storm? Implications for the DXY & Dow JonesStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 2, 2026 The heatmap of today's action is quite fractured despite an improvement as the session went on.It seems that buyers are targeting individual oversold region in a pre long-weekend rebalancing, profiting to the Tech Sector at the cost of Producer Manufacturing (which outperformed yesterday).Sectoral analysis has been very chaotic as of late, so focusing either on Indexes or individual Stocks could help for decision-making.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 2, 2026 – Source: TradingView After all, an Oil rise wasn't going to be so lenient on global assets, with most tumbling and particularly in those which have been more volatile in recent days, including Metals and Cryptocurrencies.The US Dollar continued its typical positive correlation to rises in WTI, but what was more surprising was the daily rebound in Bonds which also soothed Stock Markets as the session went on.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 2, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As usual since beginning March, a bullish session for Oil quickly correlated with a rebound in the US Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, albeit on a lower extent.On the other side of the performance spectrum, the classical losers from higher Oil prices including European currencies and the Japanese Yen.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Apart from the PMI release in China (Chinese data hasn't moved Markets much in recent days), the only key release, a huge one too, will be the Non-Farm Payrolls release, which has the potential to create a huge spike but see low continuation as the traders that are left will be going early on a long-weekend.As always, keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades, Happy Good Friday, Easter and Passover for those who celebrate!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Euro area inflation increased mainly due to energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions around Iran, while core inflation remained stable or slightly declined.Price pressures have not broadly spread across the economy: food, industrial goods, and services show weaker dynamics, limiting overall inflationary pressure.There is a risk of second-round effects: higher energy costs may gradually feed into other sectors, especially food and services, pushing core inflation higher over time.The European Central Bank is likely to remain cautious, with the baseline scenario pointing to at most one rate hike or simply signaling such a move.Energy-driven surge in inflation On Tuesday, inflation data for the euro area was released. Inflation in the euro area accelerated noticeably in March, rising from 1.9% to 2.5% year-on-year. The main driver of this increase was energy prices, particularly fuels and heating oil, which reacted strongly to geopolitical tensions related to the conflict in Iran. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes energy and food, not only failed to rise but actually edged down slightly to 2.3%. The readings came in slightly below market expectations.Impact of the war limited to the energy sector The data indicate that the increase in inflation is almost entirely due to rising energy prices. Energy price dynamics shifted from negative territory to clearly positive, directly lifting the headline inflation rate. Meanwhile, other components such as food, industrial goods, and services recorded a slowdown in price growth. This suggests that, for now, the conflict has not broadly spread across the economy. Additionally, government measures, such as tax cuts in Spain and Italy, have partially mitigated the impact of rising energy prices. Contributions to Eurozone HICP YoY% NSA, soruce: Bloomberg Lagged effects may push core inflation higher In the coming months, however, higher energy prices are expected to gradually feed through into other sectors of the economy. Rising production costs and fertilizer prices may translate into higher food and service prices, which could, with a lag, lift core inflation. Even if the conflict subsides in the near term, cost effects may persist through the end of the year, potentially leading to a renewed increase in core inflation in the fourth quarter.Limited response from the European Central Bank Despite the rise in headline inflation, the current data remain consistent with the most dovish scenario of the European Central Bank. This means that pressure for aggressive interest rate hikes is limited. Under current conditions, the most likely scenario assumes either a single rate hike or merely a signal of such a move in the coming months.Market implications The current situation shows that inflation in the euro area remains highly dependent on external factors, primarily the energy market and geopolitical developments. As long as inflationary pressure does not spread more broadly across the economy, the monetary policy response is likely to remain moderate. However, in the medium term, the risk of second-round inflation effects remains significant. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Geopolitical risks from the US-Iran conflict sparked a sharp "risk-off" reversal across global marketsBrent and WTI crude surged past the $100 per barrel mark, escalating global inflation expectationsEquities (like the STOXX 600) and precious metals (like gold) retreated, while the US Dollar strengthened as the primary safe-haven asset.Attention now turns to comments from Federal Reserve speakers and tomorrow's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Markets were sent into a tailspin on Thursday as geopolitical risks once again took center stage, overshadowing recent hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough. Investor sentiment, which had been tentatively recovering, faced a sharp reversal as the prospect of a prolonged conflict between the US and Iran sent shockwaves across asset classes.The "Trump Wildcard" and Market Sentiment In a prime-time address, President Trump’s rhetoric struck a dual chord—promising to hit Iran "extremely hard" while simultaneously claiming the end is in sight. This ambiguity is precisely what the markets dislike. Without a concrete exit strategy, the risk-off mood is likely to persist.As we look ahead to the North American session, keep a close eye on the $85 level for Brent as a key pivot point, while equity bulls will need a significant de-escalation headline to regain control of the narrative. For now, the "wait-and-see" approach remains the most prudent path as geopolitics continues to overpower fundamental data.Safe-Haven Demand Propels the DollarThe US Dollar regained its footing, firming up as the "safe-haven of choice" while uncertainty gripped the session. We’ve seen this playbook before: when clarity is lacking, the greenback thrives.Oil’s Volatile AscentThe most dramatic reaction remains in the energy sector. Brent and WTI crude surged well over the $100 per barrel mark, a psychological level that will likely weigh heavily on global inflation expectations. President Trump’s recent remarks, while suggesting that military objectives are nearing completion, failed to provide the one thing markets crave most: a definitive timeline.From a technical perspective, if oil sustains its break above $100, we could see a further squeeze toward the $110 handle, especially if supply-side fears continue to dominate the narrative.European shares struggle European equities took a significant hit on Thursday, with the STOXX 600 dropping 1.2% to 589.99 points. The reversal comes as a cold shower for market participants who, just 24 hours ago, were buoyed by hopes of an imminent diplomatic resolution. Instead, the narrative has shifted back to escalation, leaving the index struggling to maintain its weekly gains.The divergence in sector performance today highlights a classic "risk-off" environment:Tech & Miners Under Pressure: Technology stocks led the decline, sliding nearly 3%, while the basic resources sector dropped 2.7% as precious metals lost their luster.Energy Outperforms: Brent crude surged past the $100 per barrel mark—a 7% jump—propelling energy stocks up 1.2%. This remains the only major sector in the green.Aviation Struggles: The spike in fuel costs sent airline heavyweights like Air France and Lufthansa tumbling over 3.7%, as the prospect of prolonged high oil prices threatens margins.Perhaps most concerning for the medium term is the shifting expectation for monetary policy. Before this conflict, markets were pricing in a "wait-and-see" approach from the ECB. Now, LSEG data shows interest rate futures are pricing in three 25-basis-point hikes by year-end.The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate wildcard. As long as this strategic artery is blocked, the twin threats of stagflation, rising prices coupled with slowing growth will continue to hang over European markets like a dark cloud.Expect liquidity to thin out as we head into the long weekend, but keep a close eye on the $100 level in Brent. If oil holds these gains, the pressure on European equities and the ECB will only intensify.Gold slides on renewed inflation fears, strong US dollar The yellow metal’s recent rally hit a brick wall on Thursday, as the safe-haven trade faced a violent unwinding. After touching its highest level since March 19, spot gold (XAU/USD) tumbled over 2.8% to trade around $4,622 per ounce. At one point in the session, the carnage was even more pronounced, with prices sliding more than 4% and decisively snapping a four-day winning streak.Gold is currently caught between a rock and a hard place. While geopolitical jitters remain, the lack of a "new" catalyst for escalation, combined with a strengthening Greenback suggests that the recent rally may have run its course for now. Keep an eye on the $4,600 level; it’s the line in the sand for the remainder of the week.The weakness wasn't confined to gold, as the broader precious metals complex saw a sea of red:Silver (XAG/USD): The most volatile of the bunch, silver plunged 5.4% to $71.07, after a stomach-churning 7% intraday drop.Platinum & Palladium: The industrial-heavy precious metals also felt the heat, with Platinum falling 3.1% to $1,902 and Palladium shedding 1.8%.How did FX markets react? The US Dollar reclaimed its throne on Thursday, as the "risk-off" switch was flipped back on across global desks. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, climbed 0.53% to sit at 100.09.The resurgence of the dollar put immediate pressure on the Euro and Sterling, both of which had been enjoying a period of relative strength:EUR/USD: The single currency slid 0.51% to $1.1531. Despite the shift in ECB rate hike expectations we’ve seen recently, the immediate need for safety outweighed the potential yield support for the Euro.GBP/USD: Cable took a harder hit, sliding 0.68% to $1.3216 as the broader flight to quality left the Pound vulnerable.AUD/USD: Often the first to feel the heat when global growth fears rise, the "Aussie" fell 0.69% to $0.6881. As a proxy for global risk appetite, the AUD’s decline underscores the market’s deepening anxiety over the duration of the Iran conflict.Perhaps the most interesting move is in the USD/JPY pair. The Yen traded 0.5% weaker at 159.64, despite its traditional status as a safe haven. This paradox is likely due to the massive interest rate differential that continues to favor the greenback.We are now effectively at the doorstep of the 160.00 handle. This is the widely recognized "line in the sand" for Japanese authorities. In my view, the closer we get to 160, the higher the probability of a "tap on the shoulder" from the Ministry of Finance. Traders should be wary of sudden spikes in volatility here, intervention risk is no longer a "maybe," it's a "when."Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook - Middle East uncertainty to dominate ahead of jobs report, Nasdaq 100 at 6-month lowsBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Economic calendar and final thoughts The European session is quiet today with markets waiting for comments from ECB policymakers.Attention will firmly be on the US session where markets are waiting on Federal Reserve speakers Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman, though the market is still largely vibing with Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone from Monday.However, the real volatility catalyst arrives tomorrow with the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. While this data won't yet reflect the full economic scarring from the war, it will provide a critical baseline of labor market health that will undoubtedly steer the Fed’s immediate policy path.Recent indicators offer a mixed bag: yesterday’s ADP figures surprised to the upside at 62k, while the ISM manufacturing employment index held steady at 48.7. As we head into tomorrow, the stakes are high:Market Consensus: 65kMacro Team Forecast: 60kBloomberg Whisper Number: 40k (notably more pessimistic)I anticipate the unemployment rate will hold firm at 4.4%. Keep in mind that any unexpected spike in joblessness could trigger an outsized market reaction.Finally, with the Easter long weekend approaching, be prepared for thinner liquidity tomorrow and through Monday, conditions that often amplify price swings. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the day - FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 is facing a critical juncture as geopolitical "war jitters" halt its recent recovery. On the H4 chart, the index has stalled just shy of the 200-period SMA (yellow line) at 10,406, a level that remains a major hurdle for bulls.Price action has slipped back toward the 100-period SMA (blue line) at 10,183, which coincides with a key structural support at 10,101.The RSI has dipped from overbought territory, signaling fading momentum. A break below 10,100 could expose the psychological 10,000 mark, while bulls need a clean break above 10,406 to shift the narrative.FTSE 100 Four-Hour (H4) Chart, April 2, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 1 Today’s April Fool's session extended the more hopeful tone seen across markets, following President Donald Trump’s decisive shift in rhetoric around the US–Iran–Israel conflict.The issue is that the initial phase of the rebound could now largely be behind us, as uncertainty has clearly eased on the back of renewed diplomatic intent and a more conciliatory tone from Washington.US Stock benchmarks have rallied close to 5% from their recent lows, breaking above prior month downtrends — a technical improvement that encouraged dip-buyers to step back in.However, into the close, some profit-taking emerged, suggesting that while sentiment has improved, conviction remains tentative.The next key leg for markets likely hinges on Crude Oil continuing to retreat from its recent consolidation near $100, reinforcing the disinflationary narrative supporting risk assets.On the geopolitical front, messaging remains mixed but less aggressive overall. Iranian President Pezeshkian struck a somewhat balanced tone in his latest address, signaling openness while maintaining aggressive positioning – Iran will be the next to decide if it really wants the conflict to end.The US President will reportedly repeat that the conflict would extend for a few more weeks only in an evening – extending beyond the 5-week and April 6 deadlines, but certainly not a worst-case scenarios like Investors had been pricing in recent weeks.He is speaking at the White House at 9PM ET.At the same time, Trump raised concerns among allies by reiterating potential withdrawal from NATO should partners fail to secure the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global energy flows.Attempting to calm tensions, France’s naval leadership indicated that a coordinated post-conflict strategy for the region is actively being developed, but Washington is temperamental and will need to see more.As we move into the final sessions of the week, markets will need further positive catalysts to sustain this rebound.The easing in uncertainty has unlocked the first move higher — but a true continuation now depends on credible diplomatic breakthroughs rather than words alone. Read More:USD/JPY faces major technical pressure from bearish RSI divergence - In-depth FX analysisBitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookInvestors rush in hope that War resolution isn't an April Fool's – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 1, 2026 Today's session wasn't as lushly green as yesterday's, but the turn compared to last week is now clear.Manufacturing and Tech are the two leaders of Wall Street action, with the prior particularly sustaining its gains from the third consecutive ISM Manufacturing PMI beat (albeit being a relatively small one).Tomorrow will once again prove to be an essential test for risk-assets, as traders will need to see more to maintain their excitement.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cross-asset performance wasn't as ecstatic as yesterday, but a second consecutive rally will be a sin of persistent advancement in what last week seemed to be the end of the world.Most risk-assets are up on the day, with Crude and US Dollar tumbling again, but the session is clearly more mixed than yesterday, indicating that the recent bounce is more one of position unrolling rather than full-on buying.With Passover holidays coming and a huge NFP report on Friday, tomorrow's session might also not be so heroic, but progress is still progress!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 1, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today maintained a more mixed picture in FX compared to yesterday, with the US Dollar slowing its correction at a key level.(Don't forget to check out our recent DXY charts!)One key performer of the past few sessions, to keep your eyes on for Forex aficionados, is the GBP, having suffered dramatically in the past weeks but attempting a steep rebound in recent days.A look at Economic data releasing over tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Important releases will concern Macro FX traders, including tonight's Trump address, Australian Trade Balance data (which will put the high-performing AUD back on the center stage) and the overnight Swiss Inflation report, key to spot whether the SNB has a clear path ahead to prevent going into negative rate territory.And don't forget the classic Weekly Jobless Claims in the US.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades and Happy Passover for those who celebrate!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/JPY is one of the most reactive pairs to broader geopolitical movements and technical patterns, remaining one of the most favored major currency pairs in FX trading.But in recent years, it has certainly played tricks on traders. Tending to move lower on rate cuts, the irregular FOMC cycle hasn't seen typical responses in the pair – After all, even the Bank of Japan is going through its own irregular hike cycle to levels not seen in 18 years.The Yen is also a favored safe-haven currency in periods of turmoil. While the US Dollar also plays a similar role, this time the Japanese currency could not even withstand the pressure: During the US-Iran conflict, Japan spiked to April 2024 highs (~160.47).Japan is a major importer of energy commodities, with close to 95% of its demand reliant on Middle Eastern exports. Despite having the largest emergency oil reserves among OECD nations, the country still faces immense pressure due to the lack of movement in the infamous Strait of Hormuz. Japan's Major Energy Partners – Source: EIA Due to this elevated dependency, JPY's pre-existing weakness quickly magnified as Japan's main hedgers and importers faced physical barriers to meeting their high demand – having to convert to the US Dollar to purchase Oil commodities, the rise in USD/JPY was nothing short of a self-fulfilling prophecy.So what about now? With the war priced to come to an end in the next few weeks, narrative once again confirmed by President Trump in his many addresses, the US Dollar is itself finding heavy selling pressure, with the Dollar Index forming a major double top ; The Japanese Yen could be a major gainer from such a pattern. USD/JPY and WTI Correlation. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite Japan’s core inflation slightly easing, price pressures from war put the BoJ on the center stage for an imminent hike. The issue is that things won't be so easy.With recent Bank of Japan uncertainty, including two key BoJ members concluding their terms in coming months, the Yen's safety could face further volatility amid a lack of further tightening.Keep a close eye on Bank of Japan communications to spot if a decisive rate hike could occur at the next meeting. The Rate decision will take place on April 28th and is currently priced for about 60% of a hike to 1%.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis for the Gopher – more commonly named, USD/JPY. Read More:Investors rush in hope that War resolution isn't an April Fool's – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Bitcoin snaps 5-month losing streak: Institutional inflows & trendline break fuel $80k outlookUSD/JPY Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart USD/JPY Daily Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY recently bounced to April 2024 highs during a mid-March Crude Oil spike, but has failed to hold its prior highs.Now tumbling right below its 20-Day Moving Average (158.90), the currency pair has formed a failed-breakout; Accompanied by two daily bearish divergences of different magnitudes, its outlook is not turning bearish on the short-term.To confirm, bears will want to see a break below 157.553, recent pullback lows.Let's take a closer look.4H Chart and Technical Levels USD/JPY 4H Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY has entered a corrective phase after the initial Monday spike, now evolving in a short-term bear channel after breakout out of its higher timeframe Bull trend.Any test of its 4H 20 and 50-MA could provide interesting points for entries on pullbacks if prices get there (159.24).Resistance levels4H 50-period MA 159.240158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major ResistanceApril 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceJune Mini resistance 160.70 to 161.00Support levelsDecember highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.85156.485 4H 200-period MA (bearish below)156.00 Pivotal Support155.00 Mini-Support1H Chart USD/JPY 1H Chart. April 1, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY has attacked its pullback higher, shortly testing the upper bound of its intraday downward channel.159.00 is a key area of pressure, hence any rejection in the US Dollar could be reflected in an inability to continue higher – In such occasions, two different trades are possibleSell on limit at the 200-Hour MA (~159.24)Sell stop below 158.60 on small size, with further continuation needed to confirm the tradeAny break above 159.60 and daily close above would invalidate the reversal patterns.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The EUR/USD surge toward the 1.1600 handle was driven by a "Trump Reversal" and "war optimism,"The pair is being boosted by a yield differential that favors the EuroInflation realities, including a jump in March Eurozone CPI to 2.5%, are keeping the "hawks" firmly in the driver's seat at the ECB.However, we are likely looking at a capped range between 1.1490 and 1.1620.Most Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?The Euro has come out swinging in early Wednesday trade, capitalizing on a sudden shift in market sentiment that has left the US Dollar nursing its wounds.After a period of intense geopolitical positioning, EUR/USD has surged back toward the 1.1600 handle, driven by a potent mix of "war optimism" and a hawkish recalibration of the European Central Bank (ECB) path.Early Trade: The "Trump Reversal" in Action The primary catalyst for the overnight move was a classic display of the "Trump Always Changes His Mind" (TACO) strategy.US President Donald Trump’s comments suggesting the Middle East conflict could reach a resolution within two to three weeks, coupled with his call for Gulf states to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp de-escalation trade.From a technical standpoint, we saw the pair dip as low as 1.1446 before staging a rapid recovery to highs of 1.1563 during the late New York session. As we move through the European morning, the pair remains buoyed, trading with a clear upside bias as investors dump safe-haven Dollars in favor of riskier assets.What’s Driving the Pair?Geopolitical De-escalation: The market is betting on a fall in Brent crude and an improvement in global risk appetite. If the war timeline holds, the global economy may dodge the worst-case recessionary scenarios, which is inherently Euro-positive given the Eurozone's sensitivity to energy prices.ECB Hawk vs. Fed Dove: While the Fed appears content to sit on its hands or even lean toward a dovish repricing (with markets eyeing a potential December cut), the ECB is singing a different tune. Hawkish rhetoric from the likes of Schnabel and even the usually dovish Panetta has kept rate hike bets alive. Markets are currently pricing in approximately 63–71 basis points of tightening by year-end, creating a yield differential that favors the Euro.Inflation Realities: March Eurozone CPI jumped to 2.5%, and while core inflation softened slightly to 2.3%, the headline pressure from food and energy is keeping the "hawks" at the ECB firmly in the driver's seat for now.The Road Ahead: Upside Bias or Capped Range? Looking forward, the immediate focus shifts to the US economic calendar, specifically the ADP Employment Change (expected at a soft 40k) and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. A weak jobs print would further validate the idea that the US economy is losing steam under the weight of the energy shock, likely piling more pressure on the Greenback. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) While the "Trump Reversal" has provided the Euro with a much-needed lifeline, the sustainability of this move rests on two factors: the actual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and whether the ECB follows through on its hawkish threats. For now, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD appears to be higher, but in this "sell-everything" environment, volatility remains the only certainty.Potential Move & Key Levels: The momentum has clearly shifted, but we must remain cautious. While the upside bias is intact, i think we are likely looking at a capped range between 1.1490 and 1.1620.Resistance: The 1.1595 - 1.1620 zone remains the major hurdle for bulls. A break above 1.1620 would signal a more structural shift in the pair's trajectory.Support: On the downside, the Euro needs to hold above 1.1520 to keep this intraday momentum alive. Any break back below 1.1450 would suggest that the "war optimism" was premature.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 1, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.