Key takeaways Risk-on rebound fuels copper rally: Copper surged ~17% from its March low, driven by improved sentiment after the US–Iran ceasefire, recovering most war-related losses and stabilizing near pre-conflict levels.Fundamentals are still supportive: Global manufacturing activity remains in expansion (PMI diffusion ~72%), providing a solid demand backdrop for copper, with upcoming flash PMI data as a key near-term catalyst.Bullish flag signals potential breakout: A consolidation pattern suggests continuation higher if 6.0680 breaks, targeting 6.1755–6.2910; failure below 5.8790 risks a deeper pullback toward moving average support zones. Copper (XCU/USD) has also benefited from a revival of risk-on appetite in the past seven trading sessions due to the temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran since 8 April 2026 to negate the risk of stagflation driven by fears of a prolonged global oil supply disruption.Dr Copper has benefited from recent risk-on behaviour Fig. 1: Global Cross Assets Performance from 27 Feb 2026 to 20 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). Copper has rallied by 17% from the 23 March 2026 low of 5.1889 to print a two-month high of 6.1037 on 15 April 2026 as market participants look forward to a peace deal resolution between the US and Iran, erasing its early loss of 14% from the onset of the US-Iran war. Based on the 27 February 2026 pre-war baseline till Monday, 20 Apr 2026, LME spot copper has traded almost unchanged at -0.75% (see Fig. 1).In the past three days, a game of poker has emerged as both sides are trying to build a “stronger hand” ahead of the second round of peace talks to take place in Pakistan, either on Tuesday or Wednesday, as stated by US President Trump via a media interview.The US has continued to enact a naval blockade on Iranian-registered oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has continued to force a closure in the strait to prevent international vessels from transporting and obtaining oil supplies in the GCC region.Global manufacturing PMI is the second driver to watch Fig. 2: Global Manufacturing PMI Diffusion Index as of March 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The longer-term price movement of copper is highly sensitive to manufacturing activities, as it is a vital component in the global manufacturing supply chains and industrial usage. Higher manufacturing activities tend to translate to a higher demand for copper, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop into the price of copper.Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data compiled by S&P Global can be used as a leading indicator to gauge manufacturing activities.Despite the rising risk of stagflation in the past six weeks since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, on the aggregate, global manufacturing activities were still growing at a modest pace in March 2026.The PMI Diffusion Index measures the proportion of countries whose manufacturing PMI is above or equal to 50 (an indication of expansion in activities), where it stood at 72.3% in March 2026, just down slightly from 74.5% in April 2026 (see Fig. 2).Hence, there are still more than 50% of global economies’ manufacturing sectors in expansion modes, in turn, providing long-term bullish support for copper prices.On Thursday, 23 April 2026, S&P Global will release flash PMI data for a slew of developed economies (Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US). Therefore, a continuation of the expansion pace seen in these economies’ manufacturing PMIs is likely to maintain the ongoing short-term bullish trend of copper (XCU/USD).Let's now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of copper (XCU/USD) and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.Copper (XCU/USD) – Potential upside trigger at 6.0680 Fig. 3: Copper (XCU/USD) minor trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Fig. 4: Copper (XCU/USD) long-term secular trend as of 21 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Copper (XCU/USD) has shaped a minor corrective pull-back of 2.65% from its recent two-month high of 6.1037 printed on 15 April 2026.Watch the 5.8790 key short-term pivotal support, and a clearance of 6.0680 (upper boundary of the bullish flag) triggers the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence (see Fig. 3).The next intermediate resistances stand at 6.1755 and 6.2465/6.2910 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 5.8790 invalidates the bullish tone for another round of minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support zone of 5.7357/5.6545 (also the 20-day and 50-day moving averages).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on copper (XCU/USD) The recent corrective pull-back from the 15 April 2026 high of 6.1037 has taken the form of a bullish consolidation chart pattern called “bullish flag,” with its upper boundary acting as near-term resistance at 6.0680.The price action of copper (XCU/USD) has continued oscillating within a minor ascending channel in place since the 23 March 2026 low and still has room to move towards the upper boundary of the channel at around 6.1755/6.2910.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to stage a rebound close to its support at the 32 level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend, causing market sentiment to diveThe US dollar reclaimed its footing, hitting a one-week high as the optimistic "peace deal" narrative crumbledThe immediate market direction hinges on diplomatic efforts ahead of Tuesday’s ceasefire deadlineThe overall outlook anticipates the DXY to maintain a defensive postureMost Read: Q2 2026 US Indices (Dow Jones, S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100) Outlook – Resilience or retracement?Market sentiment took a dive this morning after weekend tensions between Iran and the US reared its head once more.The ceasefire remains fragile and will be tested at the start of the week after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted. President Donald Trump struck a cautiously optimistic tone, suggesting that Iran has committed to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.Despite the "completely open" announcement made on Friday, market sentiment was quickly dampened by reports of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeting tankers within 24 hours of the statement. This immediate escalation serves as a grim reminder that while political agreements provide a temporary reprieve, the operational risks in the region remain elevated. The impact from these developments saw oil prices rise more than 6% in early Monday trade. GOld on the other hand opened around $40 down from its Friday close before dropping to a daily low around the 4737 mark. The precious metal ground its way back toward the $4800/oz mark which seems to be the immediate hurdle to cross and gain acceptance above for a move higher.All in all risk assets are lower, one of the few exceptions being Japan's Nikkei share average which rose on the day. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.60% to close at 58,824.89 compared with its record intraday level of 59,688.10 touched on Thursday. The broader Topix climbed 0.43% to 3,777.02.Dollar Finds Support on Safe-Haven Bid The US dollar reclaimed its footing on Monday, hitting a one-week high against a basket of major peers as the optimistic "peace deal" narrative began to crumble.The catalyst for the greenback's resurgence stems from Tehran’s refusal to participate in a second round of negotiations, casting significant doubt on the longevity of the two-week ceasefire set to expire this Tuesday.The shift in sentiment was felt across the G10 space, with high-beta and risk-sensitive currencies bearing the brunt of the move:Euro (EUR/USD): The single currency slipped 0.05% to $1.1754, having earlier touched a weekly low of $1.1729.Sterling (GBP/USD): Cable followed suit, trading 0.15% lower at $1.3497 as the broader "risk-off" mood took hold.Aussie (AUD/USD): The most sensitive to shifts in global stability, the Australian dollar dropped 0.3% to $0.7145.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs European Open: Geopolitical risk roils markets European equities began the week on a negative note, with the STOXX 50 down 1.3% and the STOXX 600 falling 0.9%.Travel and leisure stocks fell sharply, with Ryanair tumbling 3.5% while energy outperformed, including Shell (2.5%).US stock index futures inched lower while the CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", gained after falling for the last eight sessions and was last up 2.25 points at 19.73, a one-week high.Read More:Chart alert: Nasdaq 100 gap-down stalled above 26,288/142 key support, bulls are still in controlA real peace process or a fantasy? – Markets Weekly OutlookEuro comes out swinging: Can the "Trump Reversal" sustain EUR/USD's upside bias?Looking Ahead The immediate market direction hinges on whether the diplomatic efforts in Pakistan yield a breakthrough or if the "tough talk" escalates ahead of tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline. The key barometer for progress will be the physical presence of Iranian negotiators. While the current "market mood music" remains anxious, there is a subtle undercurrent of hope for a resolution that could spark a relief rally in risk assets.Tuesday’s Triple Threat: Warsh, Ceasefires, and Retail Sales Tomorrow stands as the pivotal session for the week, defined by three key catalysts:The Ceasefire Deadline: Expiration without a deal could reignite a sharp flight to safety.Kevin Warsh’s Confirmation: His Senate hearing for the Fed Chair role will be scrutinized. Expect a "split personality" approach: dovish on interest rates but hawkish on shrinking the Fed's balance sheet.US Retail Sales (March): Expected to remain resilient despite the energy tax on consumers, reinforcing the "higher for longer" narrative.Chart of the Day - DXY The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently attempting to claw back recent losses, trading near the 98.24 handle after a sharp decline earlier this month. On the H4 chart, the index has found strong structural support around the 97.70 level, where a series of "BULL" signals and RSI divergence suggest a near-term bottom may be in place.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: Immediate upside pressure faces a stern test at 98.73 (red horizontal). A break above this could see the index rally toward the 99.21 (100-SMA) and 99.35 (200-SMA) confluence zone.Support: The 97.70 area remains the critical floor. A daily close below this pivot would invalidate the current recovery and open the door for a move toward the 97.00 psychological mark.With the RSI (14) rising from oversold territory and currently at 48.65, momentum is shifting back to the bulls. However, until the DXY reclaims its moving averages, the broader bias remains neutral to bearish.USD Index Four-Hour Chart, April 20, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways DJIA lagging but poised for catch-up: While other major US indices have posted gains post ceasefire, the Dow has underperformed but is now showing signs of a bullish catch-up above key support at 47,895.Macro tailwind improving for financials: Stabilisation and potential re-steepening of the US yield curve could boost bank profitability, supporting the Dow given its heavy financial sector weighting.Bullish technical structure forming: The DJIA is in a minor uptrend within an ascending channel; a break above 48,850 may extend gains toward 49,715/49,835, while failure risks a pullback toward 47,460. Since the start of the ongoing recovery seen in the risk assets, such as global equities, last Wednesday, 8 February 2026, on the backdrop of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, which put a pause to the seven-week war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has lagged behind the other three major US stock indices with a current loss of 0.8% from pre-war baseline on 27 February 2026 to Thursday, 16 April 2026.In contrast, gains were recorded in the S&P 500 (+2.4%), small caps Russell 2000 (+3.3%), and the top performer, the higher beta technology heavyweight, Nasdaq 100 (+5.5%) (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: Global benchmark stock indices performances from 27 Feb 2026 to 16 Apr 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The US Treasury yield curve bear flattening has reached a plateau Fig. 2: US Treasury yield curve (10-YR minus 2-YR) major trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). The Financials sector is the top sector in the DJIA, with a weightage of around 27%, and Goldman Sachs is the top price-weighted component stock in the DJIA with a weight of 11.4% as of Thursday, 17 April 2026.The underperformance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been underpinned by bear flattening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year), where the yield spread dropped by 11 basis points (bps) to hit an eight-month low of 0.48% on the week of 16 March 2026; such a shift typically signals tighter financial conditions, which can weigh on economic growth and pressure bank profitability.In the past five trading sessions, stagflation risk arising from a prolonged period of global oil supply crunch has eased, in turn, reducing the odds of a hawkish monetary policy guidance from the US Federal Reserve.Hence, the 4 weeks of bear flattening movement seen in the US Treasury yield curve have started to plateau as the yield spread has increased by 5 bps to 0.53% at the time of writing (see Fig. 2).A bull re-steepening in the US Treasury yield curve is likely to improve the earnings prospects of banks, in turn, triggering a positive feedback loop into the Dow Jones Industrial Average.Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.Dow Jones (DJIA) – Minor bullish trend from 30 March 2026 low remains intact Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 17 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Watch the 47,895 key short-term pivotal support on the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average E-mini futures).A clearance above the 48,850 near-term resistance increases the odds of the continuation of the bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 49,180/49,250 and 49,715/49,835 (see Fig. 3).On the other hand, failure to hold at 48,850 with an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next immediate supports at 47,460 and 46,970/46,710 (the area around the intersection of the 20-day and 200-day moving averages impending bullish crossover).Key elements to support the near-term bullish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) Price actions started to oscillate within a minor ascending channel from the 30 March 2026 low and traded above all three moving averages (20-day, 50-day, and 200-day).The hourly RSI momentum index has managed to stage a rebound after a retest on its ascending support on Thursday, 16 April 2026, at the 43 level.Elliot Wave Theory suggests the recent rally from the 2 April 2026 low of 45,882 is likely considered as a minor bullish impulsive wave three structure with its potential terminal zone at 49,715/49,835 (1.00 Fibonacci extension from the 2 April 2026 low and the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The NZD/USD is currently facing its sternest technical test at the 0.5918–0.5920 resistance zoneThe Daily chart suggests a potential long-term trend shift, but the H4 RSI shows bearish divergence, signaling short-term exhaustion.A clean break above 0.5920 would accelerate the move toward 0.5950.Inability to hold the level, followed by a break below 0.5873, risks a corrective slide back to the major support pivot at 0.5821.Most Read: Cable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500The New Zealand Dollar may be about to face its sternest test yet. The pair has to grapple with a cluster of technical resistance levels around the 0.5918-0.5920 zone, the question for the upcoming session is whether the bulls have enough fuel left in the tank for a structural breakout or if we are due for a "mean reversion" back toward 0.5820.Daily Chart: The Descending Trendline Challenge The macro view on the daily chart reveals a pair attempting to break free from a long-term bearish regime. After a sharp sell-off in early 2026, NZD/USD has formed a classic "V-shaped" recovery, slicing through the first major obstacle at 0.5821.Currently, spot prices are knocking on the door of the 0.5918 resistance level. A daily close above this confluence would signal a significant trend shift, potentially opening the door for a move toward the 0.6100 handle.However, the Daily RSI at 56.4 shows that while momentum is positive, the pair is far from overbought, suggesting that there is still "white space" for bulls to exploit if the breakout is confirmed.NZD/USD Daily Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView H4 Chart: RSI Divergence Flags Exhaustion Zooming into the H4 timeframe, the bullish structure remains intact, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows. The pair may find support at the 0.5870 - 0.5850 zone, which previously acted as a cap.However, a note of caution for the bulls: the H4 RSI has printed multiple "BEAR" pivot warnings at the recent peaks near 0.5920. This bearish divergence suggests that the "easy money" on the long side may have been made, and the pair might need a period of consolidation or a slight pullback to gather strength before its next impulsive leg.NZD/USD Four-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView H1 Chart: Session Scenarios & Key Levels The hourly chart provides a clear roadmap for the upcoming session, showing the pair currently trading around 0.5892 after a slight rejection from the 0.5918 ceiling.The Bullish ScenarioFor the rally to resume, the Kiwi needs to hold above the intraday support at 0.5873. If buying pressure returns, a clean break above 0.5920 would likely trigger stops from short-sellers, potentially leading to an accelerated move toward 0.5950 and 0.5980. Traders coul look for a "bull flag" consolidation pattern on the M30 or M15 as a precursor to this move.The Bearish ScenarioThe inability to hold above the 0.5920 level is the first warning sign. If we see a break below 0.5873, it would likely confirm a "double top" on the lower timeframes. This could trigger a corrective slide back toward the major support pivot at 0.5821, where the long-term descending trendline might be retested from the "top side."Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 0.5918 (Major), 0.5950, 0.6000Support: 0.5873, 0.5821 (Pivot), 0.5780GBP/USD One-Hour Chart, April 16, 2026 Source: TradingView NZD/USD is at a critical technical junction. While the daily structure is turning constructive, the short-term indicators are screaming for a breather. As long as the 0.5821 level holds on a closing basis, the bullish bias remains the dominant theme.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 16 After yesterday's extreme Stock Market session, Traders are taking somewhat of a break.The quotes in the headline, are due to the fact that even in a muted session, large movements are still observed, but with the new phase in Markets, they remain more concentrated.The main culprit of today's action was once again Crude Oil, rallying from the lack of concrete headlines regarding US-Iran talks, that were supposed to take place today but instead got previewed by President Trump for this weekend.Some great news came from the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire which got agreed this morning to take place immediately. It is a great step towards a longer-standing peace process between the two neighbors, but doubts will remain on Lebanon's ability to disarm Hezbollah, (who are still eager to wage war against Israel) the most essential element for a longer-run peace process .The news took out a few dollars off of the 4% daily rally in Black Gold.In any case, this was the final demand from the Iranian side to participate in the second round of talks. While Nasdaq printed some new all-time highs and US Indexes grinded higher, their action was quite contained from the absence of clarity.With no particular data releases (except for a small miss in Australian Employment) and a few Fed Speeches, the situation really did not change much. Central Bankers are all confused and unsure of what to communicate from the ongoing uncertainty, as NY Fed's Williams confirmed in his speech. Read More:WTI and Brent Oil bounce with US-Iran news still awaited – What's next? Intraday AnalysisThe US Dollar is stalls as the world awaits Ceasefire news – DXY OutlookChart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new uplegStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 16, 2026 Today's Stock Market action was once again pulled by all sides with chaotic individual stock dynamics which did not paint any particular sense of sectorial harmony.Healthcare remains under strain, but remained bid throughout the conflict – Hence, with Investors turning back to riskier-assets, this could only be due to some repositioning.Netflix also just reported a beat on their earnings but issued confusing guidance and the Stock is dropping in after-hours trading.Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 17) Earnings release for April 17, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow will conclude the heavy financials reporting week – No particular name to outline but keep track of the sector after this week's heavy names having reported.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView After yesterday's explosion all across the risk-asset board, the Market really stalled it action.At least, the sell-the-Thursday trend observed since the beginning of the year seems to have officially stalled.Traders will have to remain locked in tomorrow as while uncertainty isn't expected to disappear, there could be some movement ahead of weekend risk!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Canadian Dollar is following WTI in its daily rebound, while other FX currencies remained under absolutely muted.The CAD is at interesting spots as explained in our USD/CAD analysis from earlier this week – Even with Oil correcting, increased orders away from the Gulf could be providing interesting longer-run opportunities for the currency. This is a development to keep your eyes on in FX.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions The Calendar is virtually empty in tomorrow's session, so this will allow Traders to follow the pre-weekend risk flows. Listen to the tape!As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US Dollar stalls its correction as Traders hold their breath, awaiting for Ceasefire newsAfter a 2.50% correction in the Dollar Index, FX remains quite stuckUS Dollar Index (DXY) in-depth Technical Analysis The US Dollar is under some complex dynamics, still moving along with Crude Oil prices, and both are just stuck in the mud.The talks, supposed to begin today in Islamabad, haven't made it to the news yet, so it seems that there are some delays – The US is still eager to reach a deal, but Pete Hegseth, Head of the Department of War just issued a address to reaffirm that the most powerful army is "to restart combat if Iran doesn't agree to a deal".Amid the borderline-insane price action in the Stock Markets, with two of the three Major Indexes reaching all-time highs (Nasdaq just set a new record in overnight trading), Participants are taking a break to await clearer developments.After all, at current levels, whether for the USD, Stocks, or WTI, risks to the upside and downside are both extreme. WTI Crude and Dollar Index (DXY) Correlation since April 5 – Source:TradingView For now, Crude has stopped its move to the downside and is even moving higher, keeping the broader Market awaiting – You can see how significant the WTI-Dollar correlation has remained throughout the entire Ceasefire. Hence, tracking Oil is almost more important than the headlines themselves for Forex trading.Stock markets, on the other hand, did own heavily, lifting, having relatively decoupled from Black Gold, but will be looking at the commodity for the next phase.In terms of pure geopolitics, the Israel-Lebanon talks under US supervision seems to be progressing smoothly, with a potential ceasefire in the coming hours/days. Hezbollah will have to be put on the side, and they are reportedly exerting heavy pressure to not enter into deals with Israel. The terrorist organization has prevented deals ever since 1993, the year when Jordan and Israel reached a Peace deal that has held since.There have been reports that there are no more deadlocks in the US-Iran mediated negotiations – But these headlines haven't been as decisive to provide further clarity on the situation. Hence, from here, all that traders will wait to see is a proper resolution. FX Performance (10:15 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView. April 16, 2026 With WTI now catching a bid, the US Dollar is extending higher on the session, with moves still quite timid for now. We’ll explore a few scenarios for a potential large reversal in an in-depth technical analysis of DXY. Discover:S&P 500 to 7,000 & Nasdaq 100 points to ATH – Are Markets getting ahead of themselves?Chart alert: AUD/USD 360 pips rally at risk of a minor mean reversion decline below 0.7200 before new uplegCable eyes 1.3696 after reclaiming key moving averages, bulls defend 1.3500Dollar Index (DXY) Multi-Timeframe AnalysisDaily Chart Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. April 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView In the bigger picture, the large 95.50 to 100.00 range is holding extremely well, with a double top last at the most recent test that led to the ongoing correction in the US Dollar.As always, it is more than advised to keep an eye on the bigger timeframes to see if any particular trend dictates the price action, as they offer some setups and allow to reduce if not discard the noise.After the 2.50% correction, the move is stalling and this comes right around the middle of the range, an important level for the bull/bear intermediate outlook.4H Chart and Technical Levels Dollar Index (DXY) 4H Chart. April 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is forming an immediate bullish divergence, boosting prospects for an immediate pullback higher.The 98.50-98.70 War Pivot and Psychological level would offer strong opportunities in to rejoin the trend in other FX pairs.Extending to 98.80 (4H 50-period MA) offers the best entries, however, any close above could entice a pursued rally in the USD.Keep a close eye on other FX pairs to position yourself – GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY offer favorable setups on pullbacks.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot98.80 4H 50-period MA99.40 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.00 Major Support (rejecting)Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00Range lows at Early 2022 Consolidation just below 96.00Safe Trades and keep track of the latest headlines!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Strong rally driven by risk-on sentiment: AUD/USD surged ~360 pips from late-March lows, supported by US–Iran ceasefire optimism and its high-beta sensitivity to global risk assets, outperforming most major currencies.Short-term pullback likely: The recent three-week bullish move appears overstretched, with technical signals pointing to a minor mean reversion decline after testing the 0.7188–0.7200 resistance zone.Key levels to watch: A break below 0.7120 may trigger a pullback toward 0.7080–0.7033 (50-day MA) before a potential next up leg, while a sustained move above 0.7200 would extend gains toward 0.7240–0.7300. The Australian dollar has benefited significantly since last Wednesday, 8 April, when the US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire due to its higher beta factor, as the AUD has mirrored the movement of risk assets such as equities since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, exhibiting similar risk-off movements, ignoring the hawkish monetary policy guidance advocated by the RBA.The AUD/USD has jumped by 230 pips (+3.3%) from the 8 April 2026 low to print an intraday high of 0.7198 on Thursday, 16 April 2026 at this time of writing, just a whisker above its prior 11 March 2026 high of 0.7188.When measured from its current minor uptrend low of 0.6833 printed on 30 March 2026, it has rallied by almost 360 pips (+5.3%), making the Australian dollar the second-best-performing major currency against the US dollar based on a one-month rolling performance; USD/AUD (-2.47%), just behind the euro where the USD/EUR slid -3.04% (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: 1-month rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). However, price actions of highly liquid tradable instruments do move vertically but oscillate within trends.Technically speaking, the three -week bullish impulsive up move on the AUD/USD from its 30 March 2026 low of 0.6833 is now due for a minor mean reversion corrective decline.Let’s now focus on the technical factors to determine AUD/USD’s potential short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days).AUD/USD – Potential minor corrective decline towards 50-day moving average Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 16 Apr 2026 (Source: TradingView). Watch the 0.7188/0.7200 key short-term pivotal resistance on the AUD/USD. A break below 0.7120 increases the odds of a minor mean reversion decline towards the next intermediate supports of 0.7080 and 0.7033 (also the 50-day moving average) before the next bullish impulsive up move sequence materializes (see Fig. 2).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 0.7200 invalidates the bearish bias for a continuation of the bullish move towards 0.7244/0.7265 and 0.7300 in the first step.Key elements to support the near-term bearish bias on the AUD/USD The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from its overbought region and broken a key ascending support from 13 April 2026.Today’s current intraday high of 0.7198 has hit the upper boundary of the minor ascending channel in place since the 2 April 2026 low.In addition, the 0.7198 intraday high confluences closely with the 0.764 Fibonacci extension of a minor five-wave bullish impulsive up move sequence target of 0.7185, which suggests the potential end of the current minor up move sequence of the AUD/USD from the 30 March 2026 low of 0.6833, based on the Elliot Wave Theory. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 15 Stock Markets are officially going parabolic in a most surprising and confusing explosion.Defying global headwinds and geopolitical anxiety, Wall Street is charging into uncharted territory, leaving all types of investors lagging far behind.In a breathtaking 15% extension, the S&P 500 has surged past the 7,000 level for the first time since January, actively carving out new all-time highs.Not wanting to be left out of the party, the Nasdaq is joining the rampage, sitting just a few points away from its own October record.This ecstatic price action is heavily driven by shifting diplomatic narratives and massive short-squeezes.Adding to the bullish confidence, Scott Bessent delivered a speech today maintaining the view that private credit stress will not develop into a systemic event – While the market cheered the reassurance, some traders couldn’t help but be reminded of Ben Bernanke’s infamous "subprime is contained" comments back in 2007.The fundamental reality, however, is that this entire run is built on a still uncertain foundation.The current market ecstasy will be completely contingent on tomorrow's restarting US-Iran diplomatic talks in Pakistan.The prediction markets still show only a 37% chance of a peace deal by April 30, and crude oil remains uncomfortably steady above $90 as the Strait of Hormuz remains under US Blockade.This geopolitical dynamic will essentially hold markets hostage: If tomorrow's talks break down, this historic, surprising run could quickly evaporate into a painful bear trap.Keep a close eye on the headlines. Read More:S&P 500 to 7,000 & Nasdaq 100 points to ATH – Are Markets getting ahead of themselves?Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Bitcoin battles 75k resistance as bulls eye further gainsOn track to all-time highs? Ceasefire may extend – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 15, 2026 The Stock Market picture is continues to show outperformance from the Tech Services Mega Caps while defensive stocks lag behind.Microsoft and Tesla are the leaders of this enormous bull run, respectively closing up 4.56% and 7.84%.Tomorrow's Stock Market action will definitely be exciting.Key Earnings releases tomorrow (April 16) Nasdaq earnings for April 16, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's key earnings will look at TSM, BNY, Netflix and Pepsico.The final reports for financials are underway, but these pale in importance compared to the huge Mega cap numbers releasing next week.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView What a run in Tech-linked assets!Cryptos and Nasdaq continue to push higher (despite some end-session profit-taking in the former) and keep outperforming the other asset classes.Metals and Safe-Havens are not able to withstand the euphoric sentiment – An important test will be coming after them in tomorrow's session.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 15, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX movement remains quite muted, but the Aussie Dollar is doing its own thing, elevating above its Currency counterparts ever since the Ceasefire started.As a risk currency, it will also face an important test with tomorrow's US-Iran talks.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The next 24 hours will prove to be an important test for Markets, with once again a fleet of Central Bank speeches – The most important one will be from Fed's Williams (8:35 A.M ET).Some key releases are coming up for Australia (Employment), Chinese & UK GDP to conclude with European CPI figures.As always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations, with the negotiations starting again tomorrow.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (15/04/2026): Join us in today’s episode, where we discuss the latest on the Middle East and the current US Earnings Season, as well as welcoming a guest appearance from FTMO performance coach Nelly Novotná, covering a variety of trading psychology topics. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick), OANDA Financial Writer Christian Norman and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently battling resistance at the psychological 75000 levelA clean close above 75000 is required for the bullish scenario to continue the rally toward targets at 76400 and 78197The bearish scenario is triggered if Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, potentially leading to a drop to the 71673 support levelMost Read: EUR/USD: A look at the 1.1800 battle and key support levelsBitcoin (BTC/USD) is currently locked in a tug-of-war at the psychological 75000 handle. After a volatile start to the month, the premier cryptocurrency has carved out a clear recovery path, though the technical indicators suggest the journey higher may require a brief pitstop.Daily Chart: Structural Breakout and Moving Average Support The daily timeframe paints a picture of a successful trend reversal. After enduring a period of downward pressure characterized by a descending channel, BTC has staged a convincing breakout.Key technical highlights on the daily:The MA Cluster: Bitcoin has decisively reclaimed the 50-day MA (blue) at 69679 and the 200-day MA (black) at 87339 remains a long-term target. More importantly, it is currently testing the 100-day MA (yellow) at 74924 as immediate resistance.Support Base: The 70000 level has now transitioned from a daunting ceiling to a significant floor.RSI Momentum: The Daily RSI is sitting at 60, suggesting that while the trend is bullish, Bitcoin is far from "overheated", leaving the door open for a run toward the 78197 and 82133 levels.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart, April 15, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H4 Chart: Consolidation Below the Ceiling On the H4 chart, we can see the aggressive nature of the recent leg up. The pair surged from the 68000 zone, slicing through the 71673 level with significant volume.However, price action has stalled over the last 24 hours just shy of the 75000 mark. We are seeing a series of "BEAR" labels on the RSI, which is currently at 57.This cooling of momentum suggests that the market is waiting for a fresh fundamental catalyst or a period of consolidation before attempting to breach the year-to-date highs. The 50 MA (blue line) on the H4 is trending sharply upward, currently providing dynamic support at 72226.Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Four-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) H1 Chart: Scenarios for the Upcoming Session The hourly chart reveals the intraday sensitivity of Bitcoin as it trades within a narrowing range. Currently at 73918, the immediate direction will likely be determined by how price reacts to the ascending 50-day MA (blue) on this timeframe.The Bullish ScenarioFor a continuation of the rally, bulls need to defend the 73500 area. A clean hourly close above 75000 would likely trigger a wave of FOMO (fear of missing out), potentially catapulting the pair toward the next liquidity pocket at 76400 and eventually 78197.The Bearish ScenarioThe recurring "BEAR" pivot warnings on the H1 RSI cannot be ignored. If Bitcoin fails to hold the 50 MA (H1) at 74004, we could see a quick "flush" down to the 71673 support level. This would be a standard mean-reversion move to shake out late-entry long positions before a potential secondary attempt at the highs.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 75000, 76400, 78197Support: 73500, 71673, 70000Bitcoin (BTC/USD) One-Hour Chart, April 15, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Bitcoin is in a "prove it" phase. While the macro structure is firmly bullish following the daily breakout, the 75000 level is proving to be a tough nut to crack. Patience may be the best tool for traders here looking for entries on a confirmed breakout or a deeper retest of support.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global MarketsMarkets are taking a break ahead of the resuming of US-Iran talks tomorrow, with mediators pushing for a ceasefire extensionStock Markets are on track to recover to all-time highs with euphoric Markets Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine current themes in North America and provide an overview of index and currency performance.Markets continue their euphoric ascension with both parties reportedly eager to pursue talks.Traders really seem to have a sixth sense for turning points in the narrative, with Stock Market buyers ruthlessly bidding prices back up to right around pre-war highs.Cautious analysis could warn of a potential for ecstatic behavior, particularly when no peace deal has yet been properly drawn out. Dow Jones Daily Chart. April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView After a chaotic first round of negotiations over the weekend, anxiety rose, but that did not last long, with President Trump repeatedly reassuring that "[Iran] sent the right people and they want to make a deal." The Nuclear issue, a particular subject of contention, is now in line for the coming resumption of discussions on Thursday.Meanwhile, with direct Israel-Lebanon talks also officially underway – the first since 1993 – peace in the Middle East seems closer by the day. The reality could be a bit more chaotic than what Participants are pricing, but all they wanted to see was a war that doesn't escalate any further (and with fears of a ground operation just three weeks ago, this is pretty decent progress).The latest news from the Associated Press reported that the mediators are now looking to extend the Ceasefire, set to expire next Tuesday, April 22.Furthermore, even Energy commodity traders are now attempting to turn the page on this heavy chapter, with the escalation premium now fully erased.As a result, only a ~$20 supply drought premium remains, which should only be erased if and when a deal is reached. Oil Daily Chart. April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView On the Macroeconomic side, the US reported a less hot-than-expected PPI report, which began to show a turn in demand-side inflation, with only heavy supply, energy-linked inflation hurting prospects.After all, IEEPA tariffs got banned by the US Supreme Court, which quickly took out a few percentage points from the data – the nastier side of it is the fact that oil-led inflation can affect inflation in a 3 to 6 month span as businesses initially absorb the lower margins before passing them on to consumers (when looking at prior energy crises).On the northern border, Canada just reported an important rebound in Manufacturing sales, up 3.6% (slightly missing the 3.8% estimate), erasing the -3% loss from January.This continues to show how sideways North American economies have evolved in recent times, with Employment for both the US and Canada continuously wiggling and economic indicators slowing and bouncing again.Policymakers will surely wait to see the effects of the war on consumption and inflation before moving the needle.Kevin Warsh's hearing is now expected next week, after being delayed by Jerome Powell's court case – Trump had some words on the issue this morning (and, as per usual, they were not the sweetest).Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:FX levels for EUR/USD, USD/CAD & GBP/USD – USD dumps amid peace repricingThe joy persists for Markets – North American Session Market Wrap for April 14Stocks continue their peace (hopes) rally, Producer Inflation (PPI) misses! – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Global Equities continue their sensational rebound, largely led by Japanese and US Stocks (with the US Dollar and Japanese Yen also weakening severely to add fuel to their respective Markets).Dollar Index 4H Chart Dollar Index 4H Chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index continues its long-term rangebound trajectory, rejecting the 100.00 resistance for the fourth time since July 2025 and now finding intermediate support at the key 98.00 level.Traders are waiting to hear more from the continued negotiations before making their next moves – To get ready for the next phase for the US Dollar, I invite you to check out our recent FX analysis.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.70 War Pivot99.40 to 99.50 Resistance100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance and Range highsWar Highs 100.544 (Double Top)Support Levels98.00 Major Support (testing)Support 97.40 to 97.602025 Lows Major support 96.50 to 97.00US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors since last Monday, April 15, 2026 - Source: TradingView The US Dollar has puked against most FX Majors in the past week and particularly more against the Australian and Kiwi Dollars – Both relieved from the lower tensions and less aggravating Energy supply fears.The regional trends in FX seen in 2025 persist again, and this also allowed the basket of EU currencies to continue to outperform (~ +2%) the US Dollar. US Dollar Seasonal performance throughout the first quarter – Source: Market-Bulls.com For those who haven't seen our past week's edition, this is a seasonal performance chart for the US Dollar. April is its weakest month of the year, so that itself could weigh even more on the Greenback.The next move will be contingent on proper progress in US-Iran talks.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, April 15, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie has once again given up a decent part of its progress against major currencies but this effect is much less exaggerated than what is observed in the US Dollar.The Loonie is actually attempting a bounce from recent lows against its peers, supported by the better Manufacturing data and widening order book for its Petrol exports.Keep a close eye on the CAD in the coming week.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USD/CAD 4H Chart, April 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD continues to correct within its large range, having broken the key momentum 1.38 pivot.Now evolving within an intermediate bear-channel, traders will be looking at the key 1.3750 Support to see whether it holds or breaks.Levels of interest for USD/CAD TradingResistance Levels1.38 Pivot +/- 150 pips1.3850 Resistance1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.3950 Range HighsSupport Levels1.3750 Pivotal Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support1.35 Key Psychological SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar to next Wednesday US and Canadian Data towards next Wednesday, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The North American calendar is somewhat calmer until next Wednesday. The Canadian Dollar will face an important test on Monday with CA Inflation releasing at 8:30 A.M.With Middle East developments easing, keep a close eye on Ceasefire news and Oil!Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks continue their previous session's mid-day rally as Iran situation slowly clearsCrude Oil corrects another 5% and diplomatic attempts maintain high hopes for peaceExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 Markets continue to price in the peace rally, which could be slowly turning from fantasy to reality.Uncertainty and war go hand in hand, and between talks and realities, discrepancies in narrative can create consequent Market confusion.However, as we have seen during this war, Stock Markets tend to react strongly, with even limited positive developments serving as catalysts for significant movement.As President Trump foreshadowed the reopening of negotiation channels between the US and Iran close to two weeks ago, Markets began a frantic 8%-10% rally from their recent lows and have barely looked back since.The trade naturally escalated when a Ceasefire was reached right before a large ultimatum for major escalation in the War. The Ceasefire itself is quite weak and provides few guidelines on what could lead to a longer-term peace process, but it definitely took the tone out of potential escalation.Participants wanted to see results, and while the world awaits further news, at least, the situation is pointing in the right direction with Iran reportedly opening the discussion on Nuclear enrichment and Israel/Lebanon direct talks beginning this morning (a first since 1993).This is a much better situation than what the initial weekend news had reported.The Strait of Hormuz remains at a standstill amid the new US Blockade. Iran also decided to stall its movement to move forward with the talks. Markets naturally took it a step further. They allowed some of the war premium in WTI to be unwound (down 5% to $93) and pumped stocks further. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 14, 2026 The Prediction-Markets-based odds for a proper peace deal by April 30 are back at pre-weekend highs (~35%).Add to the slowly confirming stance towards peace with a large miss in March PPI (Producer Price Index, which leads CPI Inflation), and Markets saw quite a few elements for bulls to come back hungry in the morning action.The headline number came in hot at 4% (not good), but much better than the 4.6% expectations. The Core (eliminating Energy and Food prices) release took 0.2% from the headline number.With demand-led inflation slowly abating, despite the large numbers, the Fed could slowly ease some anxiety. Nevertheless, they will have to see prices at the pump decidedly retreating before they can let off the pressure. Their incoming speeches will have to be tracked closely. Morning US PPI data. April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Markets are now looking ready for peace, so they will hold high expectations to the talks that will take place on Thursday.Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentumCritical Crossroads: USD/CHF tests key support at 0.78285. Is a bounce to 0.7900 up next?WTI (Oil) drops back below $100 after US-Iran talks set to resume – Oil Dynamics and Intraday AnalysisCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:00) – Source: TradingView – April 14, 2026 The Market is now broadly flashing green, with Mega Caps leading to the upside during an ongoing huge rebound.Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Tesla and Meta are pulling the entire Indexes to some fresh highs and profiting largely to the gigantic rebound in the Nasdaq, while Energy stocks are taking a hit (from lower Oil prices).Despite some local laggards, the Market is largely moving in tandem.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView While the rally is slower in the Dow Jones, it is for now less chaotic and much more progressive than the spikes that have been seen in the other major Indexes.The DJIA is still evolving within its main upward channel since having broken out of its war downtrend, and aims to test the 48,700 - 48,800 resistance in coming times.From there, reactions will be essential:Rejecting it could point to a retest of 48,000 (channel lows)Breaking above should flash to 49,000 Above this, the road to 50,000 should be short-lived.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMini-resistance 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,20049,500 psychological mini-resistance49,900 to 50,000 Resistance and Daily Range HighsSupport LevelsMomentum Pivot 48,300 (bull above)Pivotal Support at 48,000 (Bearish below)Mini Support 47,400 to 47,600War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)January 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has largely beaten any expectations or predictions in its gigantic war-rebound, up 12% and breaking all sorts of resistances since.Now testing the 25,700 to 25,850 resistance, the momentum is nearing overbought soon but with the pace of the buying, only bearish news around the talks could stop the bull train to all-time highs.To learn more, check out our in-depth Nasdaq Analysis (watch out for CFD/Composite price differentials):Read More: Technical levels to watch as Nasdaq 100 approaches all-time highsNasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMajor resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (testing)February Highs 25,93426,000 psychological resistance (+/- 50 points)All-time high resistance 26,200 to 26,300Support Levels25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range Intraday PivotPivotal Support 25,000 to 25,250 24,450 to 24,550 Key SupportMajor 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Similarly to Nasdaq, the S&P 500 is dominating the charts and breaking all types of resistance.The Index is currently testing its major December All-Time High level (6,970). As it also evolves in a bull channel, it will be interesting to see if bulls can manage a push above, however, if Oil fails to break $93, it will be difficult to assume so.In that event, look for a retest of 6,900 for dip-buying (if the situation doesn't worsen!)S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDecember ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975 (testing)ATH Resistance and Range Highs from 7,000 to 7,020Next key potential resistance 7,060 to 7,080Support LevelsKey Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900 Pivotal Support 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,580 to 6,610 Support6,490 to 6,520 October lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)Keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Nasdaq 100 has completed a "V-shaped" recovery after the recent sellof.The overall trend is clearly bullish across all major timeframes, with the index currently trading above the key 25,320 resistance-turned-support level.The RSI is signaling overbought conditions on the Daily, H4, and M15 charts, which suggests that immediate upside momentum may be slowing and consolidation or a minor "retest" is likely.Read More: Silver (XAG/USD) at a Crossroads: Bullish breakout meets overbought momentumThe Nasdaq 100 has undergone a massive rally. After a period of aggressive selling that saw the index dip toward the 22,800 handle, we have seen a textbook "V-shaped" recovery.The most notable development is the breakout from the descending channel (highlighted by the dark trendlines). This breakout was confirmed with a strong impulsive candle that cleared both the 100-day (red) and 200-day (yellow) Moving Averages (MAs).Currently, the index is trading above the 25,320 resistance-turned-support level. The RSI on the daily is approaching overbought territory (65.5), but it still shows room for a final push toward the previous all-time highs near 26,200 before a meaningful correction is required.Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H4 and H1 Chart Analysis: Momentum and Market Structure Moving down to the H4 and H1 timeframes, the bullish momentum is even more evident. The "Golden Cross" or proximity of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the upside.H4 Perspective: The index has cleared the 25,091 level with ease. We see a series of higher highs and higher lows. The H4 RSI is currently at 74.1, indicating that while the trend is strong, we may see some intraday consolidation or a minor "retest" of the breakout zone at 25,320.H1 Perspective: The hourly chart shows a steep ascending slope. The moving averages are perfectly fanned out in a bullish alignment. We are seeing some "Bear" divergence signals appearing on the RSI (red labels), which suggests that the immediate upside might be slowing down as we approach the US open.Nasdaq 100 Four-Hour Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) M15 Analysis: US Session Scenarios Let us take a look at the M15 ahead of the US session. The index is currently hovering around 25,526.The Bullish ScenarioIf the US session opens with strong buying pressure, look for a sustained hold above 25,500. A break and close above the most recent intraday high (25,560) would open the door for a move toward 25,750. The bulls will be emboldened as long as the price stays above the 20-period MA (Blue line) on this timeframe.The Bearish ScenarioThe RSI is currently signaling overbought conditions (71.0) with several "Bear" pivot markers. If we see a "fake-out" at the open, a move back below 25,480 could trigger a liquidation of intraday long positions. This would likely lead to a move back toward the 25,320 support level (the red horizontal line), which acted as a major ceiling previously.Key Levels to Watch:Resistance: 25,560, 25,750, 26,000Support: 25,320, 25,091, 24,667Nasdaq 100 M15 Chart, April 14, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The Nasdaq 100 is in a clear bullish cycle across all major timeframes. However, given the vertical nature of the recent move and the RSI levels, the risk-to-reward ratio for new longs at current market prices is less than ideal.Traders would be wise to look for pullbacks to the 25,320 or 25,100 zones to join the trend, rather than chasing the breakout at these elevated levels.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The overall bias for USD/CHF has turned decidedly bearish in the short to medium term following a significant rejection at the 0.80000 psychological handle.The pair is currently testing a critical support level at 0.78285, which is described as the "line in the sand" for bulls.Lower timeframes show extreme oversold readings on the RSI, hinting at a possible short-term corrective bounce toward resistance around 0.79000 before a potential continuation of the downside.Daily Timeframe: Structural Shift at Key Resistance On the Daily chart, USD/CHF has faced a significant rejection at the 0.80000 psychological handle. This level has proven to be a formidable barrier, leading to a sharp reversal that has now brought the pair back down to a critical inflection point.Trend Dynamics: The pair has been trending higher since early 2026, supported by an ascending trendline (dark navy). However, the recent price action shows a decisive break below the 200-day MA (yellow) and the 100-day MA (blue), signaling a shift in medium-term momentum.Key Support/Resistance: We are currently testing the 0.78285 - 0.78344 support zone. This area aligns with previous structural pivots and is bolstered by the 200-day MA (black) sitting just above at 0.78279.Indicator Outlook: The RSI is trending lower but has not yet reached oversold territory, suggesting there may be further room for the downside if the current support level fails to hold on a daily candle closing basis.USD/CHF Daily Chart, April 13, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H4 Timeframe: Momentum Accelerating Downward The H4 chart provides a clearer view of the recent "waterfall" sell-off. The bearish momentum accelerated once the pair lost the confluence of the moving averages near the 0.79400 region.Moving Averages: The 50, 100, and 200 MAs are now fanning out above the current price, acting as dynamic resistance. The Death Cross (50 MA crossing below the 100/200 MA) is about to take place as well.Price Action: We see a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. The current candle is hovering right at the 0.78285 horizontal support. A sustained break here would likely target the ascending trendline from the daily chart, currently located around the 0.77200 area.RSI: On this timeframe, the RSI is deep in oversold territory (~30.99), which could hint at a short-term corrective bounce or consolidation before the next leg lower.USD/CHF Four-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) H1 Timeframe: Intraday Exhaustion? The hourly chart highlights the sheer velocity of the move during the April 13th session. The pair dropped nearly 100 pips in a straight line without a significant retracement.Current State: The price is "hugging" the bottom of the range at 0.78345. Note the RSI on the H1 is at 26.76, indicating extreme intraday exhaustion.Tactical Levels: * Immediate Resistance: If we see a "mean reversion" play, the first hurdle is the 0.78932 (50 MA) followed by the 0.79000 level.Support: The 0.78285 level remains the "line in the sand" for bulls on an intraday and larger timeframe basis..USD/CHF One-Hour Chart, April 13, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Comprehensive Outlook The overall bias for USD/CHF has turned decidedly bearish in the short to medium term following the failure at 0.80000.Bullish Scenario: For the bulls to regain control, we need to see a strong rejection at the current 0.78285 support, followed by a daily close back above the cluster of moving averages at 0.79400.Bearish Scenario: If the pair fails to hold 0.78285, the path of least resistance points toward the long-term ascending trendline near 0.77500 - 0.77200. Given the oversold RSI readings on the lower timeframes, a minor retracement to retest broken support (now resistance) at 0.79000 would offer a higher-probability entry for trend followers.Key takeaway: Keep a close eye on the 0.78285 level; a daily candle close below this mark could trigger a fresh wave of selling toward the YTD lows.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks gapped down at their weekly open with US-Iran ceasefire weakeningCrude Oil rebounded above $100 with Islamabad talks compromised and a US blockade in Hormuz on its wayExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 This weekend marked the start of US-Iran negotiations, which, unsurprisingly, quickly turned sour.A wave of US and Iranian envoys have come and gone from Islamabad, Pakistan, to maintain the diplomatic attempts – The first round of talks was unfortunately unfruitful.Numerous disputes have halted discussions, with the US administration eager for an agreement but insisting on demands that the Islamic regime considers too harsh.WTI Crude surged nearly 10% to $104 at the Globex open, sparking pessimism in global stock markets.The Ceasefire is still ongoing, and as long as it continues, there is hope for a more peaceful path ahead. President Trump recently decided to implement a blockade of blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran maintaining their leverage on the world's most important 10km location.Will this advance a deal? Uncertain, given ongoing threats to end the truce. Prediction markets now estimate the odds of a deal before April 30 at 20%, down from 35% on Friday. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 13, 2026 Despite gapping lower at the open, US Equities are remaining extremely resilient, with the S&P 500 holding right below unchanged and only the Dow Jones pulling back (~ -0.50%). The moves are still quite timid, definitely not pointing to a return of widespread panic.While the Middle East situation remains in a status quo, traders are still maintaining optimistic views on the conflict's future. It is wise to keep a close eye on the latest developments to be ready to trade accordingly.While doubts remain, it is always best to remain ready. Let's look at intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Markets Today: Crude surges 8%, DXY jumps as US naval blockade targets Iranian oil exportsMetals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookMarkets Weekly Outlook - Markets brace for US-Iran talks amid post-ceasefire surgeCurrent Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:28 PM) – Source: TradingView – April 10, 2026 The Market picture is quite cloudy, with many of the largest names hanging close to unchanged as Participants still uncertain on what to do next.Producer manufacturing is a laggard while Tech (particularly electronics) are attempting a rebound. Once again, sectorial trading seems quite compromised amid recent confusion, hence it could be more strategic to either focus on individual stocks or Index trading to avoid getting caught in crosswinds.Dow Jones 4H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – April 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones Index gapped lower at the Open, struggling the most out of the three main US benchmarks. However, sellers could not continue their short-lived dominance and a rebound attempt is already on the way.For the short-term, look at 48,000 for immediate bull/bear guidance, as this will be a target for the ongoing rebound.Rejecting it points to more downside ahead, pointing towards 47,000Breaking back above 48,000 would look to retest the past week highs (48,300) – Above this, the action turns long-term bullish.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMomentum Pivot at 48,000 (short-term bearish below)March 4 resistance 48,250 - 48,300 (bull above)Mini-resistance 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200Support LevelsMajor Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (Session lows)War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,30045,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 4H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – April 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq remains persistent within its 25,000 to 25,250 area, forming a short-term consolidation range.The longer the action stays in that zone, the higher the chances of an upside breakout.Nonetheless, this zone is a longer-run resistance, hence any bearish outflow could see heavy momentum – Keep track of sentiment for more precise execution.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 (top at 25,250!)25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistanceMajor resistance 25,700 to 25,850Support Levels24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal SupportFeb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – April 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is already running back towards its Friday highs as traders maintain further hopes for continued talks.Breaking 6,840 puts the Index on a bullish short-term outlook. Failing to breach this level maintains a more rangebound outlook ahead.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsEarly March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (testing)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support LevelsMajor Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)6,580 to 6,610 Support4H 50-period MA 6,5506,490 to 6,520 October lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)The narrative is still confusing, so keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the week to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for April 10 Markets are now preparing for a rocky weekend, with high stakes geopolitical developments ahead.Despite recent back-and-forth rhetoric and Iran threatening to cancel the negotiations entirely, a group of Islamic republic diplomats—including Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi—is traveling to Islamabad, Pakistan, to move onto a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. These talks should be ongoing for a relatively long time, hence a real change in narrative and dynamic is not to be expected anytime soon. However, steady progress and positive communications will be required to maintain risk-sentiment at current, very positive levels. Stock Markets actually took a step back from their ecstatic pricing from earlier this week, but they still remain at relative peaks.Adding to the geopolitical relief, Israel-Hezbollah tensions are slowly abating, as a ceasefire and formal talks on that side of the arena should be expected by Tuesday.On the macroeconomic front, the recent commodity shock is officially showing up in the data. The latest US CPI report showed the first direct hits from recent energy price rises, with headline inflation coming in at 3.3% y/y. This was heavily driven by a massive 0.7% rise from energy and food inflation (with Core CPI only at 0.2% – but still concerning for the Fed) – The highest report in two years. While this complicated the inflation picture, the report was well priced (as-expected).Canadian Employment also marked a decent rebound, also coming as expected at 14.1K (Unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.7%).Meanwhile, institutional continuity might provide a slight anchor for monetary policy amid recent Market chaos. In other news, Kevin Warsh's hearing has been announced to be delayed, which could keep Powell at the head of the Fed for a prolonged period. Read More:Metals are lost in translation; Risk-assets or Safe-Haven? – Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) & Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookProfit-taking in Stocks ahead of key weekend risk – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookUSD/CAD forms a gigantic range after CA Employment – Will lower Oil prices endanger the CAD?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – April 10, 2026 The Market picture remained quite the same as this morning, although slightly eased as profit-taking continued.Amazon remains a large winner of this week of action, with Nvidia also marking a decent rebound as investors keep looking for quality stocks in a perpetual rotation amid always so dramatic narratives.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's asset performance was relatively calm compared to what Markets have been getting used to in recent weeks.WTI dropped around the weekly close, something that consumers will (hopefully) enjoy at the pump over the weekend – even if nothing about recent Petrol prices have been enjoyable. But everything is relative I guess.Cryptos continue their remarkable rebound into what seems to be a more decisive run, having broken some key technical hurdles – Check out our latest Analysis to learn more!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, April 10, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Currency Markets have remained quite muted, with all participants looking at the US Dollar in the waiting for its signal (and naturally, its relation with Crude Oil, stuck in uncomfortable silence).Still, European currencies have awakened again after staying dormant this week. A look at Economic data releasing over this weekend and Monday's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Except for the beginning of the IMF meeting in Washington, nothing too important is on the calendar – The meeting will gather key diplomats and figures from around the World, so outlooks from recent Oil prices etc could somewhat reprice Markets. Keep track of important speeches. Get ready for next week's action with our Weekly Outlook right here!For the rest, as always, make sure to follow talks around US-Iran negotiations.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Stock Benchmarks are trading in confusion ahead of large weekend riskCrude Oil remains stuck close to $100, not helping US equities as Traders prepare for significant US-Iran talksExploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 The Ceasefire still stands, but Markets are seeking further confirmation as US-Iran talks are set to proceed this weekend.A significant barrier to the negotiations had been the ongoing Israeli attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Islamic regime trying to hold onto its remaining strongholds in the Crescent.Israel-Lebanon direct talks will begin on Tuesday, and strikes have been limited in the past 24 hours after a heated exchange between Trump and Netanyahu. Hezbollah continued waves of rocket and drone attacks since.Still applying heavy leverage on the Strait of Hormuz ahead of the talks, only 4 tankers have crossed today, showing only minimal progress despite the ongoing truce.While Iran has been pushing back on the discussions, creating internal tensions over who will be appointed to the Islamabad (Pakistan) talks, recent headlines have confirmed that it will participate.Good news? Surely. This is better than nothing, particularly with the US side seemingly ready to make concessions to end the War sooner rather than later (after ~6 weeks of war).But looking at the Stock Market today, traders have already priced them in and will now expect to see decisive progress in the coming days.As per usual, the main point will be to see what's next for the Strait of Hormuz and more particularly, Crude Oil prices, still stuck around the $98 to $100 tight range. PolyMarket odds for a peace deal. Source: TradingView – April 10, 2026 Any prediction of what is going to happen is nothing short of a gamble – The Trump Administration is serious about the talks, with midterms approaching and this war not faring well with the American population.Demands will be strict, and the Iranian delegation will be under pressure.It would be unrealistic to see an actual deal at the end of the weekend, but Markets will be leaning of White House communications.Odds for a proper peace deal before April 30 are still only priced below 20%. Traders will want to see a major gap down in Crude Oil prices to push stock prices higher.Nasdaq was the only Index to rally today, but Sentiment is progressively souring as Participants are now increasingly taking profits on a very positive week, and all Benchmarks are now turning red.As traders are getting ready for the final trading hours of the week, we will look at the short-term intraday charts and trading levels for the major US indexes: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500. Discover:Oil just doesn't want to correct with persistent Ceasefire uncertainty – WTI Technical analysisMarkets Today: Reality check hits markets as ceasefire fragility weighs, US PCE data in focusThe Ceasefire trade is on, but clouds remain – North American Session Market Wrap for April 8Current Session's Stock Heatmap Current picture for the Stock Market (12:28 PM) – Source: TradingView – April 10, 2026 The profit-taking has been broad across the entire Stock Market, with participants easing their weekly purchases and rotating back into the names less affected by Wartime flows (including Semiconductors in Nvidia, AMD and AVGO).Dow Jones 2H Chart and Trading Levels Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones is now rejecting the higher bound of its upward channel and imminently breaking the key 48,000 level.This could lead to profit-taking acceleration toward the afternoon but such trading levels have low odds of holding after the key week-end negotiation period.Good news would easily see a gap higher above 48,300A negative scenario would look to test 47,000Any break below puts wartime trading back into actionFurther uncertainty hints at progressive downside back to the 47,400 - 47,600 supportDow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsMarch 4 resistance 48,250 - 48,300 (bull above)Mini-resistance 48,700Major Resistance – 49,000 to 49,200Support LevelsBull/Bear Momentum Pivot at 48,000 (+/- 100 points)Major Pivotal Support 47,400 to 47,600 (50-Hour MA)War Resistance now Key Support 47,000 +/- 100 Points (Bearish below)March 8 War lows Resistance now Support 46,30045,700 to 45,900 August SupportJanuary 2025 Highs 45,000 to 45,280Nasdaq 2H Chart and Trading Levels Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has just reached the top of its 25,250 resistance zone and momentum is now largely cooling, pointing to some downside ahead.With the weekend action still uncertain, the end-afternoon session should still see continued profit taking back towards the 24,900 Intraday Momentum Zone.Breaching it on Monday could see a quick test of 24,500 and below if the tone sours.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsKey Resistance 25,000 to 25,250 (top at 25,250!)25,400 to 25,500 Feb Range resistanceMajor resistance 25,700 to 25,850Support Levels24,750 to 24,900 Momentum Pivot24,450 to 24,550 Pivotal SupportFeb Range Support 24,150 to 24,200Major 2026 Pivotal Support 23,800 to 24,000August 2025 Support 23,500 to 23,650Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart and Trading Levels S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is forming a similar turn in RSI momentum as Nasdaq, hinting at some downside towards the afternoon.The action may stall at the 6,760 to 6,780 Pivot Zone in the waiting for further clarity.Downside continuation will point to 6,700.Good news should break 6,840 and may even extend to 6,900.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsEarly March Resistance 6,820 to 6,840 (rejecting)Key Resistance Zone 6,880 to 6,900Previous ATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Support LevelsMajor Momentum Pivot 6,750 to 6,7706,680 to 6,700 Pivotal Support (4H 200-period MA)6,580 to 6,610 Support4H 50-period MA 6,5506,490 to 6,520 October lows6,300 psychological level (War lows)The narrative is easing, but keep track of WTI Crude and the latest headlines throughout the weekend to stay ahead of the game.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Canadian Employment data saw the Unemployment Rate tick lower, but elevated wage growth could put the Bank of Canada back into actionWhile the US-Iran ceasefire eased WTI prices, Canadian Crude becomes a viable alternative, helping prospects for the LoonieIn-depth Technical Analysis and technical levels for USD/CAD and EUR/CAD Canadian Employment data just released, coming very close to expectations (14.1K vs 15K exp), marking another chapter of sideways economic trajectory for the Land of Maple Syrup.The headline number itself is welcome for Canada, but its details still cast doubt on the BoC. Last month showed a large decrease in labor data, and these numbers, while trading higher, haven't shown any sign of consistency – At least, the Unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.7% (from 6.8%).The one stark detail that could get the Bank of Canada to turn more hawkish, without counting war-led energy price rises, is that wages are up 4.7% y/y, which could play a huge role in future inflation spikes, for now still hanging close to the 2% target. Canadian Headline Inflation since 2021. Source: TradingEconomics – April 10, 2026. Similar to what was seen in today's US CPI release, a 0.9% rise would likely scare the Central Bank into rate hikes, for now still priced at only 30 bps for the year.A lot of conditionality for now, but the BoC did mention that future policy could head both ways as details from the war progressively arise.A positive development for the CAD.Also, Markets received the shocking news of a (feeble) US-Iran ceasefire, which immediately took out a 15% premium in WTI prices. As a major Oil producer and exporter, the CAD eased in response, but the uncertainty regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz should preserve Canada's relative advantage in the field.The world is now turning its attention to the negotiation table, waiting for further clarity. For now, Hormuz is still in dire straits (pun intended) as Iran makes use of its leverage on the world's most important 10km region.So while lower WTI prices and a better geopolitical outlook ease some of the War Premium seen in the CAD, the fact that it remains a consistent producer and economic partner lifts the Loonie's prospects in the medium term. After all, demand for Canadian Crude is rising again, and even at $70/bbl, this is still a ~30% increase from early 2026 levels for Black Gold. Except for any major crisis in the Canadian Economy, odds for the Canadian Dollar to return to 2025 lows are close to specks of dust.Enough talk, let's dive right into a two-timeframe USD/CAD analysis and a quick look into EUR/CAD, the second-most-traded Canadian Dollar FX pair. Read More:Breaking News: US inflation surges to 2-year high of 3.3%, Dollar Index (DXY) slips as US-Iran talks in focusNBP expands gold reserves and moves closer to the global Top 10Has Crypto heard enough for a rally? Bitcoin (BTC) & Ethereum (ETH) OutlookUSD/CAD Daily and Intraday Technical AnalysisUSD/CAD Daily Chart USD/CAD Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView After a massive rally in the North-American FX pair, a double top did what it does best and preceded a strong 2,000 pip retracement, officially breaking the War bull channel.Looking at the big picture, USD/CAD is responding well to its 1.3550 - 1.3950 Range.While breaching the 200-Day Moving Average, bears may face a short-term challenge with conflicting War signals (the USD dominates if the war prolongs) and this comes particularly important around the 1.38 Support level.With Daily RSI coming right at the neutral level, the coming days will be essential for further technical developments (bearish below 50, bullish above). Let's take a closer look to spot key areas of interest.USD/CAD 1H Chart and Trading Levels USD/CAD 1H Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is forming the premises of a proper downward channel, now testing the 1.38 Support, acting as final barrier to a consistently bearish price action in the pair.While immediate momentum is bearish (large responses to the 50-Hour MA – 1.3835), oversold RSI conditions and geopolitical uncertainty might keep the action muted for the weekend.Any retracement here could look to retest the 50H MAA larger US Dollar rebound may retest the 1.3860 channel break (Optimal entry points if it reaches there)Breaking 1.38 on the daily would take it to the lower bound of its large range, so further downside in this scenarioLevels to place on your USD/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:50-Hour MA – 1.38351.3850 - 1.3870 Momentum Pivot (Channel retest 1.3860)1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.3950 mini-resistance (Range Highs)1.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels:1.38 Mini-support +/- 150 pips (testing)1.3750 Support1.3630 to 1.3660 Key Support1.3550 Main 2025 Support (Range Lows)EUR/CAD Daily Chart EUR/CAD Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/CAD went onto its own roller coaster adventure last month, with a 5,000 pip down-and-up swing!Currently testing the 1.62 level, rejecting here would be necessary for bears to retake control in the FX Minor, particularly as this would stall the end-March tight bull channel.Breaking back above 1.62 on the daily marks a return within the 1.61 to 1.64 larger range (lower odds)Rejecting 1.62 would mark an optimal entry for longer-term EUR/CAD bearsFalling below 1.6150 on the weekly would confirm more downside ahead.Levels to place on your EUR/CAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.62 Key Resistance (rejecting)July 2009 Highs around 1.6350Late 2025 range highs 1.64August 2025 Highs 1.64697Support Levels:1.6150 Pivot1.60 -1.6050 Major SupportPivotal Support (Long-term bearish below) 1.5950July Low Key Support around 1.58War Lows Key Support 1.56 (+/- 150 pips)Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US annual inflation reached a 2-year high of 3.3% in March 2026, driven primarily by a massive spike in energy costs due to geopolitical conflict.Core inflation remains relatively contained at 2.6%, suggesting that underlying price pressures are not yet matching the headline surge.The Federal Reserve faces a complex situation as energy volatility offsets disinflationary trends in sectors like used cars and food.The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward trajectory, with markets keeping a close eye on upcoming diplomatic talks between the US and Iran.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) stalls at critical $4900/oz resistance as bear signal flashesThe "war premium" has officially hit the data. US annual inflation surged to 3.3% in March 2026, the highest level since May 2024 and a massive jump from the 2.4% seen in February. While the print landed in line with market forecasts, the internal dynamics tell a story of two different economies. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) The Energy Surge The primary culprit is a massive spike in energy costs a direct consequence of the conflict with Iran.Gasoline prices rocketed 21.2% on a monthly basis, contributing to an overall 18.9% annual increase.Fuel oil saw an even more dramatic spike, up 44.2% year-on-year. Source:LSEG On a monthly basis, the headline CPI rose 0.9%, the largest monthly increment since June 2022.Core Inflation: The Silver Lining?While the headline number looks alarming, "Core" inflation (excluding volatile food and energy) offered a slight reprieve.Annual Core CPI edged up to 2.6%, actually coming in a hair below the 2.7% forecast.Monthly Core CPI grew by a modest 0.2%.This suggests that while energy is wreaking havoc on the headline figure, underlying price pressures remain somewhat contained. Disinflation in used cars (-3.2%) and cooling food prices (2.7%) are helping to offset the energy-led chaos.This follows on from yesterday's data and more specifically the PCE price index which also showed worrying signs of an uptick. Both core CPI and PCE inflation have been driven by businesses passing on some of Trump's broad tariffs to consumers, offsetting the disinflationary trend in rents.Outlook moving forward For the Federal Reserve, this is a complicated "sticky" situation. The headline spike is driven by external geopolitical factors they can't control, but the moderation in Core CPI might give them enough cover to avoid a panic-driven rate hike.However, with the energy supply chain still brittle, the risk remains that these high headline costs eventually bleed into the broader economy. For now, the market is breathing a small sigh of relief that core data didn't catch the "energy fever."Pump prices have shot up in the US and the worry will be a prolonged Middle East conflict.As things stand all eyes will likely be on Islamabad as the US and Iran are scheduled to begin talks tomorrow in what many hope will lead to a long-term deal.Market impact & US dollar index (DXY) reaction The data was not really a huge surprise and the fact that it was in line with estimates could explain the largely muted reaction.The US dollar Index slipped slightly which in theory should not be the case, as higher inflation usually would support the greenback.The explanation though is simple, markets had largely priced in the inflation spike as well as its potential impact on monetary policy and thus the muted reaction.There is also the possibility that markets are hoping that tomorrows meeting between the US-Iran could lead to a solution which in turn could lead to this spike in inflation being a short-lived one.US Dollar Index Daily Chart, April 10, 2026 Source: TradingView For a more detailed and technical outlook of the US dollar index, read US CPI Preview: US dollar index (DXY) at a critical crossroads ahead of looming CPI spikeTrade Safe.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

NBP bought around 13 tons of gold in March, despite a sharp drop in pricesTotal reserves increased to approximately 580 tonsThe central bank aims to reach 700 tons of gold reservesPoland is now just over 30 tons away from the global topTaking advantage of the price correction Recent estimates indicate that the National Bank of Poland continued its strong gold purchases in March 2026, taking advantage of a sharp market correction. The value of gold reserves fell to around 84.4 billion US dollars, down nearly 9.5 billion compared to the previous month, but this decline was entirely due to lower gold prices.Gold prices dropped significantly during March. After rising above 5400 dollars per ounce, they fell to around 4100 dollars, marking a temporary correction of more than 24 percent. This period appears to have been used by the central bank to increase its holdings.Estimated increase and confirmation Taking price levels into account, it is estimated that the NBP increased its gold holdings by approximately 417 thousand ounces, or nearly 13 tons. This would bring total reserves to around 583 to 584 tons.Indirect confirmation came from Adam Glapiński, who stated that current gold reserves stand at about 580 tons, compared with roughly 570 tons at the end of February. Official figures for March will be released on April 21.Strategic importance and long term goal Despite the increase in physical holdings, the share of gold in total reserves declined slightly from around 31 percent to 29.38 percent, mainly due to falling prices.The NBP continues to treat gold as a key element of financial security and diversification. The central bank maintains its target of increasing reserves to 700 tons, with around 130 tons still needed at the beginning of the year. Source: Bloomberg Poland approaching the global top tier Strong purchases have significantly improved Poland’s global position. The NBP likely surpassed the Turkish central bank, which reduced its gold holdings in March through sales and swaps.According to data from the International Monetary Fund, Poland is now just over 30 tons away from entering the top 10 countries with the largest gold reserves, excluding the IMF.If the current pace continues, this milestone could be reached sooner than previously expected. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.