FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW The strong rally in the Nasdaq has stalled last Wednesday as the US-Iran deal failed to materialise within the expected timeline. Since then, the price action has been mostly rangebound with just the softer than expected NFP reportproviding some support. The data triggered a dovish repricing in interest rate expectations, with the probability of a September rate hike falling to 38%, compared with 54% before the release. Despite that, the probabilities of a September hike rose back to 50%.The reason for this whipsaw in expectations is that there was a significant loss of government jobs, which made the report look much softer than it actually was. In fact, the unemployment rate painted a different picture, falling further to 4.1%. Overall, the labour market remains on a better trajectory than it has been over the past three years.Today, we have the US CPI report. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The focus will be on the Core CPI M/M measure which is expected at 0.2%. A hot report will likely trigger a selloff in the short-term, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft or even in-line report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and give the Nasdaq another boost. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq is consolidating below the key swing level at 30,065. That’s where the sellers are stepping in with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 26,300 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs.  NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the recent price action formed a symmetrical triangle. The price can break on either side but follows next is generally a more sustained trend. The buyers will continue to lean on the bottom trendline to keep targeting an upside breakout, while the sellers will lean on the top trendline to position for a downside break. NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as traders will likely wait for the US CPI release to start taking positions.  The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we have the US CPI report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI data and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple of expiries to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.They are for EUR/USD at the 1.1500 and 1.1550 levels. The expiries don't tie much to any technical significance, with the currency pair now weaving in and around the 100 and 200-hour moving averages at 1.1533-41 mostly. That as we see the dollar get settled in during the week, awaiting the US CPI report later today.Given the anticipation ahead of the main event, there shouldn't be much else to distract from that. As such, expect EUR/USD price action to be more muted in the run up; with or without the expiries impact.In any case, I wouldn't expect much pull from the expiries above as topside action is still more limited by the 100-day moving average at 1.1566. Meanwhile, there will be some bids layered closer to the 1.1500 mark but we are unlikely to see the expiries factor much into play to add to that before the inflation data.Dollar sentiment is largely riding on the US CPI report today, so that will be the bigger factor to move major currencies. That as well as any further potential yen intervention play, with USD/JPY starting to get closer to the 160 mark once again. So, just be wary of that.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Italy's CPI report. The data is not going to change anything for the ECB, so the market reaction will be muted. The price action will likely be mostly rangebound as traders will be waiting for the key US CPI report.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 3.5% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.1% vs -0.4% prior. The Core CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.5% vs 2.6% prior, while the M/M figure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.0% prior. The data will be critical for Fed Chair Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and for the September rate hike expectations. The focus will be mainly on the Core CPI M/M measure since a few FOMC members mentioned that the monthly pace in core inflation will be key for their decision. Therefore, this should be one of those rare reports where an in-line figure could still trigger a significant market reaction.  This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

July final CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.3%July final HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%German headline annual inflation is reaffirmed to have nudged up in July. However, the good news at least is that core annual inflation is seen easing marginally to 2.4% - down from 2.5% in June.Food price inflation was seen at 2.5% with services inflation seen at 2.9%. The latter is still on the high side but at least is seen slowing from 3.1% in June.Overall, price pressures remain elevated as energy prices continue to stay underpinned for the most part. Destatis notes that one additional reason to the higher headline print for the July report was likely the expiry of the fuel rebate on 30 June. As such, that saw fuel prices rise by a whopping 23.0% year-on-year in July. That's much higher than the preceding two months of 11.3% in June and 18.0% in May.All in all, the report here will keep the ECB on their toes in looking to the end of the summer break and on to September. With the US-Iran conflict still raging on, there's still every chance the central bank needs to do more to bring down price pressures further by year-end. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Brent is back above $90, while WTI has topped $80, as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from assured.Reuters reports that only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, well below the 10-day average of around 11, despite statements from Trump and Bessent that “we could reach an agreement today or tomorrow,” which could potentially reopen the path to a broader deal. The fact that these were little more than verbal interventions aimed at influencing the market highlights the sudden shift in rhetoric: just last week, the White House was saying the conflict was heading toward an end, while on Monday, Trump demanded that Iran compensate those killed and seriously injured in the fighting, and Tehran had previously called on the US to compensate it for damages caused by the conflict. But the Iran-US cat-and-mouse game is not the only problem. Attacks on oil refineries in Russia and Saudi Arabia are adding to the pressure on global energy markets, with diesel prices in the US and Europe surging in recent days. Higher energy prices could fuel another wave of inflation and force central banks to keep rates higher for longer, which would be bad news for equities, gold (XAUUSD), and bonds. Basically, we could be looking at 2022 2.0, with the longer the conflict drags on, the bigger the hit to the global economy and financial markets. For now, strategic reserves are keeping oil prices from breaking decisively above $100 a barrel, but they are not unlimited. US strategic petroleum reserves, for example, have already fallen below 300 million barrels, their lowest level since 1983, from around 415 million barrels as of February 28. Stockpiles are also declining in Japan and China, with global oil inventories reportedly being depleted at around 6.3 million barrels per day. Now the problem is that even if the White House, with the US midterm elections approaching, pushes harder for a deal and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Iran seems pretty serious about charging an extra fee for passage, which would still push up logistics costs and, ultimately, inflation. Thus, unless the US and Iran reach a deal that includes the unconditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, inflation is unlikely to ease anytime soon. For investors, that probably means maintaining appropriate hedges and defensive positions still makes sense.  This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Supported keeping interest rates unchanged in July, Fed position remains "mildly restrictive"Sees the possibility that economic conditions in the coming months will require tighter policyWould be prepared to raise interest rates in such a contextWarns against jumping to conclusions on latest jobs dataPrivate-sector hiring remains positive and unemployment rate is still relatively stableShouldn’t be surprised if there are some periods with negative jobs growth, and others where it is surprisingly highOverall labour market data remains quite mixed, though risks to inflation are greater"There’s much to watch there, but inflation is too high"The full transcript can be found here (may be gated).Just be wary though that Collins isn't a voter on the FOMC board this year. So while she may offer her opinions and backing to certain leanings, they won't carry as much weight as coming from a voting president instead.Her comments are nothing all too surprising with a September rate hike still very much in the air. As things stand, traders are seeing a move for next month as being more of a coin flip at this stage.As such, the timing of her comments is the more interesting one as it comes right before the US CPI report for July later today. If anything, it puts more scrutiny on the data and adds more weight to any upside or downside surprises to the inflation numbers.It's not all too common that the Fed leaves markets guessing right up until the last minute. But after Warsh's shift in forward guidance communique, this might be the new norm that we'll be seeing. That especially if economic data continues to be rather benign - which is possible. So, we'll have to wait and see. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Australia sets world leading pay floor for 250,000 gig delivery workersGulf states quietly by-pass choke points as Hormuz risk lingers, Saudi Oman deal fits patternAsian shares diverge as chip rally lifts Kospi, Nikkei awaits US CPIWorld's biggest private gold holder Tether gives users weeks to exit vaultTrump says has total control of Hormuz. Remarks that jar with weeks of shipping attacks.PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7882 (vs. estimate at 6.7430)Goldman chief economist Hatzius expects a benign July US CPI printJapan bond yields rise as oil gains stoke fresh inflation concernsFed's Goolsbee "said" ((7 weeks ago!) inflation is economy's biggest problemMUFG says Hormuz impasse and hawkish Trump keep RBA hike risk aliveReuters Tankan hits highest manufacturing reading since March on chip boomNAB on RBA wording shift: Outlook relatively even handed, sees first rate cut mid-2027Westpac says RBA hold looks entrenched despite hawkish inflation guardrailRBA holds cash rate at 4.35pc for second meeting, flags scope to hike again - analyst takeOil Tuesday recap - settles higher as Iran keeps Hormuz shut and new Gulf attacks resumeinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 11 Aug: Stocks /yields Slip as markets await US CPIOil: Private survey of inventory shows a huge headline crude oil build vs draw expectedWhat I've missed - Hormuz hopes clash with new shipping attacks (oil up)US stocks close mostly lower; Nasdaq leads declines with a fall of -0.60%SummaryOil edges higher as Iran's Rezaei insists Hormuz stays shut on US terms; fresh attacks reported in Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of OmanTrump claims "total control" over Hormuz in tarmac remarks that sit oddly against the on-the-ground pictureAPI reports a surprise 9 million-plus barrel crude build against an expected draw, ahead of official EIA data tomorrowNikkei flat awaiting US CPI; Kospi jumps circa 3.5% on chip rally, triggering a sidecar after KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%Japan's 2-year JGB yield hits a fresh high back to May 1995North Korea fires a second short-range ballistic missile this week toward the Sea of JapanTrump reportedly weighing capital gains relief, including inflation-indexing, ahead of the midterms; policy signal only, not lawFX ranges tight, modest USD strength ahead of the 8.30am ET CPI releaseOil prices edged mildly higher on Wednesday as geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East showed no sign of easing. Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until the United States changed its behaviour and accepted Iran's conditions, while fresh reports emerged of vessels targeted in both the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Gulf of Oman, extending a pattern of attacks that has spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz itself in recent weeks.President Trump offered a notably different assessment of the situation, telling reporters on the tarmac after a trip to Ohio that matters with Iran are going fine, absolutely fine. Pressed on whether that suggested he trusted Tehran, he said he remained the last person who would trust Iran, citing a pattern of broken commitments, and claimed the United States currently holds total control over the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Iran lacks control and that the US effectively owns the waterway. He said Iran might eventually attempt something, in which case it would be met with force, but characterised the current US position as a strong one. Those remarks stand in contrast to the reported situation on the ground, where shipping through the strait remains severely curtailed and attacks on vessels have continued in the surrounding waters.Separately in oil markets, a private survey of US crude inventories pointed to a substantially larger build than expected. American Petroleum Institute data showed crude stockpiles rose by just over 9 million barrels in the week to August 7, against expectations for a roughly half a million barrel draw, a significant miss that will be tested against official Energy Information Administration figures due Wednesday morning in the US.In Asian equities, Japan's Nikkei traded close to flat as investors awaited the US Consumer Price Index release and further clarity on the Middle East situation, while South Korea's Kospi jumped around 3.5% on a rally in chipmakers, with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both surging on strong signals of AI infrastructure demand. The Korea Exchange later activated a sidecar mechanism on the Kospi after KOSPI 200 futures rose 5%. In fixed income, Japan's two year government bond yield advanced 2 basis points to 1.63%, its highest level since May 1995.Elsewhere, North Korea launched a short range ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, the second such test this week. In Washington, Trump is reportedly considering capital gains tax relief ahead of the midterm elections, including inflation indexing of capital gains and a higher exclusion threshold on home sales, currently set at $250,000 for individuals and $500,000 for married couples. Indexing would tax only real, inflation adjusted gains rather than nominal ones, for example taxing only the residual appreciation on a 50% nominal gain if inflation over the holding period ran at 20%, a change that would lower the effective tax burden on long term holdings of equities, real estate and businesses and could support asset prices and trading activity. Any such measures remain policy signals rather than settled law, since direct rate changes or an expanded exclusion would require congressional legislation, and administrative inflation indexing would likely face significant legal challenge.In currency markets, major pairs traded in narrow ranges, with the US dollar showing modest strength ahead of the CPI report due at 8.30am US Eastern time.---US CPI due at 0.830 US Eastern time: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The direct macro effect here is likely to be modest but real, and skews inflationary at the margin. A mandated hourly floor of A$31.30, roughly 18% above the national minimum wage, lifts labour costs across a delivery sector that touches food and grocery prices for a large share of households, and platforms will need to decide how much of that cost gets absorbed versus passed through in delivery fees or service charges. With around 250,000 workers covered from August 17, the aggregate wage bill increase is meaningful in dollar terms even if it barely moves headline CPI on its own, and any pass through would likely show up gradually in services inflation rather than as an immediate shock. The insurance requirement adds a further modest cost layer for platforms, though the lack of a specified minimum coverage level gives companies some flexibility in how they meet it. More broadly, the reform is a genuinely positive story for a workforce that has long sat outside standard protections, and it arrives alongside the ILO's first binding gig worker standards adopted in June, suggesting Australia's move could become a reference point as other jurisdictions consider similar rules.---Earlier:NAB on RBA wording shift: Outlook relatively even handed, sees first rate cut mid-2027Westpac says RBA hold looks entrenched despite hawkish inflation guardrailRBA holds cash rate at 4.35pc for second meeting, flags scope to hike again - analyst take--- Australia just gave a quarter of a million gig workers a pay floor they've waited years for, and the modest cost of that fairness will likely show up in delivery fees rather than headline inflation.Summary:Australia's Fair Work Commission has approved new minimum standards requiring food and grocery delivery workers to be paid at least A$31.30 an hour, above the national minimum wage of A$26.44, effective from August 17Companies must also provide a reasonable minimum level of personal accident insurance cover for gig workers, though the order does not specify a minimum coverage level, while workers remain responsible for their own third-party vehicle insuranceThe order applies to engaged time, covering the period from accepting a delivery job through to completing it, and is expected to benefit around 250,000 workersThe Transport Workers Union called the order a landmark moment for the Australian gig economy, with national secretary Michael Kaine describing it as an absolute world leading set of standards in a joint statement with Uber Eats and DoorDashUber Eats and DoorDash both welcomed the changes, saying the rules show stronger worker protections and gig work flexibility can coexistThe reform follows Australian parliament laws passed in 2023 and 2024 under the Labor government that empowered the Fair Work Commission to set gig worker pay and insurance standards, and follows the International Labour Organization's June adoption of the first binding international employment standards for gig workers, which still require government ratificationEconomically, the change is likely to be mildly inflationary at the margin as delivery platforms weigh absorbing higher labour costs against passing them through in fees, though the effect on broader consumer prices is expected to be gradual and modest Australia's industrial umpire has approved new minimum standards for gig delivery workers that unions and workers have long campaigned for, marking what the Transport Workers Union has called a landmark moment for the country's gig economy. The Fair Work Commission's order, issued late Tuesday, requires food and grocery delivery workers to be paid an hourly rate of at least A$31.30, equivalent to around $22.11, well above Australia's national minimum wage of A$26.44. The order takes effect on August 17 and is expected to benefit approximately 250,000 workers.Under the new rules, workers will receive the minimum hourly rate for engaged time, the period stretching from accepting a delivery job to completing it. Companies will also be required to provide a reasonable minimum level of personal accident insurance cover, although the Commission's order stops short of specifying an exact coverage threshold, giving platforms some latitude in how they structure that protection. Workers will continue to be responsible for maintaining their own third-party insurance on vehicles used for deliveries.The reform is the product of legislation passed by Australia's centre-left Labor government in 2023 and 2024, which gave gig workers greater rights to negotiate minimum pay and conditions and empowered the Fair Work Commission to formally set standards around pay and insurance for a workforce typically classified as independent contractors rather than employees, and therefore historically excluded from many standard workplace protections. Transport Workers Union national secretary Michael Kaine said gig workers had been left outside Australia's workplace systems for far too long, and described the new standards as world leading, adding the union intends to build on them over time. Notably, that statement was issued jointly with Uber Eats and DoorDash, both of which said the changes demonstrate that stronger protections and the flexibility valued by gig workers can go hand in hand, a rare instance of platforms and organised labour publicly aligning on a regulatory outcome in this sector.The Australian order lands alongside a broader international shift on gig worker rights. In June, the International Labour Organization adopted its first binding employment standards for gig workers, a move that could eventually extend rights around pay, safety and social benefits to platform workers globally, although those standards still require individual governments to ratify them before taking effect. Australia's move, delivering concrete minimum pay and insurance protections ahead of that international framework being formally adopted elsewhere, positions the country as an early mover on an issue many other jurisdictions are still only beginning to legislate.From a macro perspective, the reform is likely to be mildly inflationary at the margin. A near 18% premium over the minimum wage across a workforce of roughly a quarter of a million people represents a meaningful increase in the delivery sector's aggregate wage bill, even if the effect on any single household's cost of living is small. Platforms will need to decide how much of that added cost to absorb internally versus pass through via delivery fees or service charges, and any pass through would likely filter into services inflation gradually rather than as a one-off shock. Set against that modest economic cost, the reform delivers a substantial improvement in pay certainty and safety net coverage for workers who have for years carried the risks of gig work without the protections typically afforded to employees, a trade-off that on balance looks like a reasonable one for the workers this order is designed to help. You'd be surprised at the delivery vehicles used here in Australia.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

On its own, this is a modest private sector logistics agreement with no disclosed financial terms or volume targets, so it carries little standalone significance for freight or shipping pricing. Its relevance lies in what it confirms about direction of travel across the Gulf: alongside June's Turkey-Saudi rail and logistics MOUs explicitly framed as an alternative to Hormuz, and Omani officials' public comments about diversifying via land routes and pipelines with the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, this deal is another data point in a broader regional hedge against maritime chokepoint risk. None of these projects offer near term capacity relief, since physical infrastructure and freight volumes take years to build out, but the accumulation of such agreements is itself a market signal, suggesting Gulf governments and logistics operators are treating extended disruption risk to Hormuz as a planning assumption rather than a temporary shock. For oil and shipping desks, the more relevant longer term question is whether any of these overland corridors eventually gain enough scale to meaningfully dent tanker dependent trade through the strait, though that remains a multi year story rather than an immediate one.---Earlier:Oil Tuesday recap - settles higher as Iran keeps Hormuz shut and new Gulf attacks resumeTrump says has total control of Hormuz. Remarks that jar with weeks of shipping attacks.--- No single deal solves Hormuz, but the Gulf keeps quietly building its way around it anyway.Summary:Oman based Arkan Logistics and Saudi Arabia's SPARK Logistics have signed an agreement to establish cross-border freight arrangements on the direct land route between the two countries, announced via Saudi Arabia's transport ministryThe deal aims to enhance transit traffic, improve supply chain efficiency and facilitate the movement of goods between the two Gulf economies, though financial terms, freight volumes and an implementation timetable have not been disclosedIt builds on the existing Saudi Oman road link through the Rub' al Khali, or Empty Quarter, which opened in December 2021 and already allows road traffic to bypass the UAEThe agreement follows June's memorandums of understanding between Turkey and Saudi Arabia covering rail and logistics cooperation, centred on reviving the historic Hejaz railway and extending it to Oman, explicitly framed by Turkish officials as an alternative route to the Strait of HormuzOmani officials have separately pointed to the country's ports outside the strait, including Sultan Qaboos, Salalah, Sohar and Duqm, as assets for building dual land routes and alternative oil pipelines with the UAE, Qatar and Saudi ArabiaTaken together, these initiatives reflect a broader pattern of Gulf states quietly investing in overland alternatives to maritime chokepoints, even as none offers near term capacity relief given the multi year timelines typical of transport infrastructureThe commercial test for the new Saudi Oman freight deal specifically will be whether it converts the existing road connection into regular freight volumes and more efficient border processing between the two markets Oman based Arkan Logistics and Saudi Arabia's SPARK Logistics have signed an agreement to establish a cross-border freight arrangement using the direct land route between the two countries, according to a announcement from Saudi Arabia's transport ministry. The initiative is intended to enhance transit traffic, improve supply chain efficiency and streamline the movement of goods between the two Gulf economies, though the companies have not disclosed financial terms, projected freight volumes or an implementation timetable.The agreement builds on infrastructure that already exists rather than creating a new route from scratch. The direct Saudi Oman road connection through the Rub' al Khali, or Empty Quarter, opened in December 2021 and eliminated the need for road traffic between the two countries to pass through the United Arab Emirates. The new freight arrangement is essentially a commercial layer on top of that physical link, with the real test being whether it can translate an existing but underused road connection into consistent freight volumes and faster, more efficient border processing.Taken in isolation, the deal is a minor logistics story. But it fits squarely into a broader pattern of Gulf states quietly building overland alternatives to maritime chokepoints, a trend that has gathered pace as the Strait of Hormuz has remained subject to closures and shipping attacks through much of this year. In June, Turkey and Saudi Arabia signed a series of memorandums of understanding covering railways and logistics services, centred on reviving the historic Hejaz railway and extending it southward to Oman. Turkish officials described that project explicitly as an alternative global trade corridor capable of reducing reliance on the strait, citing successful trial shipments from Turkey through Iraq to Saudi Arabia as evidence the route is viable. Separately, Omani officials have pointed to the country's ports outside the strait, including Sultan Qaboos, Salalah, Sohar and Duqm, as a foundation for building dual land routes and alternative oil pipelines in partnership with the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, framing the current period as an opportunity to accelerate investment in projects that had previously been delayed.None of these initiatives, including the newly announced Saudi Oman freight deal, offers any near term relief to shipping capacity through Hormuz, since transport infrastructure of this kind typically takes years to build out and scale. What the accumulation of these agreements does suggest is that Gulf governments and logistics operators are increasingly treating extended disruption risk to the strait as a structural planning assumption rather than a temporary disruption to be waited out. Whether any of these overland corridors, from the Saudi Oman freight tie-up to the proposed Hejaz railway extension, eventually reach enough scale to materially reduce the region's dependence on tanker traffic through Hormuz remains an open and multi year question, but the direction of travel across multiple, independently announced projects points the same way.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The split between Tokyo and Seoul on Wednesday captures two different reads on the same macro backdrop. Japanese investors are staying cautious ahead of the US inflation print, unwilling to commit to a direction with both Fed rate expectations and the Middle East outlook still unresolved, which has kept the Nikkei essentially rangebound and its AI heavy constituents mixed. Korean markets, by contrast, are trading almost entirely off a semiconductor demand story, with strong AI infrastructure signals from names like Coreweave and Supermicro feeding directly into Samsung and SK Hynix even as broader risk sentiment softened on Wall Street overnight. Foreign buying into Korean equities alongside a weaker won suggests that flow is currency agnostic for now, chasing the chip cycle rather than reacting to the same geopolitical hesitancy weighing on Japan. Wednesday's CPI data is likely to be the bigger swing factor for both markets from here, though Korea's move looks more idiosyncratic and less tied to that release than Japan's.---Earlier:Japan bond yields rise as oil gains stoke fresh inflation concerns--- Tokyo is waiting on the Fed, Seoul is riding the AI chip cycle, and for one session those two stories couldn't look more different.Summary:Japan's Nikkei traded roughly flat, last up around 0.05% near 67,010, after swinging between a gain of about 0.25% and a loss of around 0.35% through the session, while the broader Topix rose around 0.4% to roughly 4,120Analysts said Japanese investors are reluctant to buy aggressively ahead of the US CPI release, still trying to gauge whether the Federal Reserve might bring forward rate hikes, with AI related shares on the Nikkei trading mixedThe US and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis reported separate shipping attacks, and Iran's top security official said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless the US meets Iran's conditions, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevatedSouth Korea's Kospi rose for a third straight session, up roughly 220 points, or around 3.5%, to about 6,565, its highest level in more than a week, as chipmakers rallied on AI optimismSamsung Electronics gained around 6% and SK Hynix rose almost 4%, with analysts citing improving flows into semiconductor and domestic AI related stocks on the back of robust AI infrastructure demand signalled by Coreweave and SupermicroWall Street closed lower on Tuesday, with Amazon and Alphabet both slipping as investors grew more pessimistic on a Middle East deal, even as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose around 1%Foreigners were net buyers of Korean shares worth around 900 billion won, about $635 million, even as the Korean won weakened against the dollar and the benchmark bond yield held steady Asian equity markets split sharply on Wednesday, with Japan's Nikkei struggling for direction ahead of closely watched US inflation data while South Korean shares surged on a chipmaker led rally. The Nikkei was last trading roughly flat, up around 0.05% and hovering near 67,010, after swinging between a gain of about a quarter of a percent and a loss of around a third of a percent earlier in the session. The broader Topix fared slightly better, rising around 0.4% to approximately 4,120.Investor caution in Tokyo centred on the US Consumer Price Index release due later Wednesday, seen as a key input into whether the Federal Reserve might move up the timing of future rate hikes. One analyst said investors were reluctant to buy aggressively ahead of the data as markets continue assessing that possibility, a hesitancy reflected in mixed trading among the AI related shares that carry heavy weight in the Nikkei index. Adding to the cautious mood, the US and Yemen's Iran aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping on Tuesday, while Iran's top security official reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless Washington accepts Tehran's conditions for ending the conflict, dimming hopes for a near term breakthrough.South Korea told a markedly different story. The benchmark Kospi extended its gains for a third consecutive session, rising roughly 220 points, or around 3.5%, to about 6,565, its highest level in more than a week, as semiconductor stocks jumped on renewed AI optimism. That rally came despite a softer session on Wall Street overnight, where Amazon and Alphabet both slipped as investors grew more pessimistic about the prospects for a Middle East deal, even as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index still managed to rise around 1%. One market participant said flows into semiconductor and domestic AI related stocks were improving on the back of robust AI infrastructure demand, pointing to recent signals from Coreweave and Supermicro as evidence of that trend.Among individual movers, index heavyweight Samsung Electronics rose around 6%, while peer SK Hynix gained almost 4%, both benefiting directly from the AI infrastructure narrative driving the broader rally. Foreign investors were net buyers of Korean shares worth around 900 billion won, or roughly $635 million, even as the Korean won weakened against the US dollar and the country's benchmark bond yield held steady. The divergence between the two markets underscores how differently the same set of global cross currents, a pending US inflation print, uncertain Fed policy and an unresolved Middle East conflict, are being absorbed depending on each market's underlying sector exposure, with Korea's chip heavy index proving far more responsive to the AI demand story than to the geopolitical and monetary policy questions currently keeping Japanese investors on the sidelines. ---US inflation data to come today at 8.30 am US Eastern time: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The story is more interesting for what it reveals about Tether's balance sheet than for any market impact from the shutdown itself, since Alloy was always a rounding error against Tether's broader gold holdings, with only a few hundred thousand dollars of Tether Gold locked in the platform against a company wide stash worth close to 19 billion dollars. That stash is the more consequential detail for anyone tracking physical gold demand: at 146 metric tons and rising after a 14 tonne addition last quarter, Tether now sits ahead of many national reserves as a private holder of bullion, a scale that gives the company real, if largely unremarked, weight in physical gold markets alongside central banks and sovereign funds. The wind down itself looks like routine housekeeping, closing an under used product to redirect resources toward XAUT and Tether's core lineup, rather than any signal about the company's confidence in gold as an asset, which it has explicitly reaffirmed as a continuing area of focus.---Earlier;Gold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this week--- Tether now holds more gold than most countries, which makes the quiet death of its smallest gold product oddly easy to miss.Summary:Tether is winding down Alloy, a gold backed lending platform launched in 2024, with the last remaining users given until September 17 to withdraw their assets before the platform closes for goodTether is best known for USDT, the world's largest stablecoin, backed by a reserve portfolio that totalled about 187.8 billion dollars as of its second quarter 2026 attestation, reviewed by accounting firm BDO, held mostly in US Treasury bills and cash equivalentsRoughly 18.8 billion dollars of those reserves, more than 146 metric tons of physical bullion stored in a private Swiss vault, is held in gold, after Tether added 14 tons during the quarter, making it the largest known private holder of physical gold outside central banks and sovereign governmentsAlloy let users lock up Tether Gold, or XAUT, tokens representing ownership of physical bullion as overcollateralised backing to mint a separate dollar pegged token called aUSDT, a structure distinct from USDT's Treasury backed modelAs of August 11, just 37 days remain until the September 17 deadline, after which anyone who has not returned their aUSDT will lose the ability to reclaim their underlying gold tokensThe platform stayed small throughout its life, with only five open positions remaining, about 399,089 aUSDT owed against 194.41 units of Tether Gold worth roughly 836,000 dollars, and nearly all of the outstanding balance concentrated among just three holdersTether said the closure reflects a decision to focus resources on products with stronger demand and deeper liquidity, including XAUT, and stressed the move is not a step back from gold as an asset class Tether, the company behind the world's largest stablecoin and, by some distance, the largest known private holder of physical gold outside central banks and sovereign governments, is shutting down its gold backed lending platform after finding only a handful of users still using it. The last remaining participants in Alloy have until September 17 to withdraw their assets before the platform closes for good, leaving just 37 days on the clock as of August 11.Tether's scale makes the story notable beyond the platform itself. The company is best known for USDT, whose peg to the US dollar is maintained by a reserve portfolio that totalled roughly 187.8 billion dollars as of its second quarter 2026 attestation, reviewed by accounting firm BDO. About 80% of that sits in US Treasury bills and cash equivalents, alongside roughly 7 billion dollars in Bitcoin and a smaller pool of secured loans and other investments. The remaining 18.8 billion dollars is held in physical gold, more than 146 metric tons of bullion stored in a private Swiss vault, after the company added 14 tons during the quarter. That holding puts Tether ahead of many national reserves and cements its position as the largest known private holder of physical gold outside of central banks and sovereign governments.Alloy, launched in 2024, was a smaller and more experimental product built on top of that gold position. It allowed users to lock up Tether Gold tokens, known as XAUT, each representing one troy ounce of a London Good Delivery bar held in vault, as collateral to mint a separate dollar pegged token called aUSDT. Unlike USDT, aUSDT was never backed by dollars or Treasuries, instead relying on an overcollateralised structure in which the gold backing was always worth more than the tokens issued, a design meant to cushion against swings in the gold price. Tether announced in June it would wind the platform down, and new minting of aUSDT has already stopped.The numbers show just how contained the experiment remained. Alloy's own statistics list only five open positions left, with about 399,089 aUSDT still outstanding against 194.41 units of Tether Gold worth roughly 836,000 dollars held as collateral. Across its lifespan the platform drew only 209 addresses in total, and the bulk of the remaining balance sits with just three holders, one owing about 300,750 aUSDT, another 95,308, and a third 3,008. Measured against total Tether Gold in circulation, the amount ever locked in Alloy was minor, with one illustration from the wind down announcement suggesting only around 3,000 dollars of every 10,000 dollars in circulating Tether Gold value was ever inside the platform.Tether has been explicit that the closure is not a retreat from gold. The company said the decision reflects a wish to focus resources on areas with stronger user demand, deeper liquidity and broader long term opportunity, naming XAUT specifically as a product it intends to keep building on. For a company already sitting on one of the largest privately held gold reserves in the world, the message appears to be that the bullion itself remains central to its strategy, even as one of the more niche ways of using it quietly winds down.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump's tarmac comments sit awkwardly against the news flow of the past several days, with Iran's top security official reiterating the strait stays closed until Washington meets its conditions, continued Houthi and blockade related shipping attacks, and Brent and WTI both grinding higher on that same uncertainty. One reading traders may take from the remarks, delivered with unusual confidence given that backdrop, is a jawboning attempt aimed at talking down oil and, by extension, US gasoline prices rather than a literal description of current control over the waterway. If markets treat it that way, the practical impact is likely to be limited and short lived, since shipping data and mediator commentary from Qatar and Pakistan carry more weight for pricing than a single presidential soundbite. Still, the comments are a reminder that verbal intervention on energy prices remains a tool the administration is willing to use, and any repeat or escalation of that rhetoric around the November mid-terms is worth watching as a standalone catalyst separate from the underlying supply picture. ---Earlier:Oil Tuesday recap - settles higher as Iran keeps Hormuz shut and new Gulf attacks resume--- Trump says the US "owns" Hormuz, which would be news to the tankers still avoiding it.Summary:Speaking on the tarmac after a trip to Ohio, Trump said the situation with Iran is going fine, absolutely fineHe rejected any suggestion he trusts Iran, saying he is the last person to do so and that Iran has lied to him constantlyTrump claimed the US has total control over the Strait of Hormuz, saying Iran does not have control and that the US owns itHe said Iran might at some point do something, in which case they would get blown away, but described the US as currently in a very good positionThe remarks come despite Iran's top security official saying the strait remains closed until the US meets Tehran's conditions, and despite continuing Houthi and blockade related attacks on shipping in the regionThe comments could plausibly be read as an attempt to talk down oil and gasoline prices given how sharply they diverge from the on the ground picture reflected in recent shipping and price data President Trump offered an unusually upbeat assessment of the standoff with Iran on Tuesday, telling reporters on the tarmac after returning from a trip to Ohio that the situation is going fine, absolutely fine. Pressed on whether that framing implied he trusted Tehran, Trump pushed back firmly, saying he is the last person who would trust Iran and that the country has lied to him constantly throughout the conflict.The most striking claim came on the status of the Strait of Hormuz itself. Trump said the United States currently has total control over the waterway, insisting that Iran does not have control and that the US effectively owns it. He added that Iran might eventually attempt something, in which case they would get blown away, but characterised the US as sitting in a very good position right now.Those comments land oddly against the broader news flow of the past several days. Iran's top security official has repeatedly said the strait will remain closed until Washington accepts Tehran's conditions, including the release of frozen Iranian assets and an end to conflicts across the region. Shipping data has shown traffic through Hormuz running at a fraction of pre-war levels, and separate attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman have continued this week, developments that have helped push both Brent and WTI crude higher over the past several sessions rather than lower.Given that gap between rhetoric and reported reality, one plausible reading of Trump's remarks is that they are less a literal claim about military control of the strait than an attempt at jawboning, aimed at talking down oil prices and, by extension, US gasoline prices, a lever the administration has shown a willingness to pull before. Whether the market treats the comments that way or largely ignores them will likely depend on whether they are followed by anything more concrete, since shipping data and statements from mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan have so far carried far more weight with traders than individual presidential remarks. For now, the disconnect between the confident tone of Trump's comments and the tightening physical market underscores how much of the current oil narrative is still being shaped by competing signals rather than a single, coherent picture from either side of the conflict.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here.Zero 7-day reverse repos volume today, PBOIC citing demand from primary dealers This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hatzius's forecast, a headline print around 0.05% month on month and core near 0.19%, would sit in line with or slightly below consensus and reinforce the softer trend he says began in June, a read that would ease pressure on the Fed heading into September if it holds. The more consequential number in the interview may be the sharp downward revision to Goldman's underlying payrolls trend, from around 75,000 to just 5,000 a month, which underscores how quickly the labour picture has deteriorated beneath the noisy monthly headlines. Hatzius's view that no hike is needed this year, resting on rent and wage inflation continuing to trend down. The exchange over whether the Fed sticks with core PCE as its primary gauge also matters for how markets interpret future data, given Warsh has left open the possibility of shifting the preferred metric, a change former New York Fed president Bill Dudley has already criticised as a credibility risk.--- Hatzius thinks the inflation fight is still winnable without a hike, even as he guts his own jobs forecast.Summary:Goldman Sachs chief economist and head of global investment research Jan Hatzius told Fox Business in an exclusive interview he expects July's CPI print to look similar to June's more benign reading, forecasting around 0.05% month on month on the headline index and 0.19% on core, both in line with or slightly below consensusHe attributed the first five months of 2026's worse than expected inflation to temporary drivers, tariff pass-through, the oil price impact, and a World Cup effect, all of which he says are now fadingTariff pass-through is largely behind the economy on a month to month basis but still adds about 0.7 percentage points to core PCE inflation, currently running at 3.3% year on year, a drag he expects to trend toward zero over the next 6 to 12 monthsAsked about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's suggestion the Fed may move away from core PCE as its preferred inflation gauge, Hatzius said he still expects PCE to remain the Fed's primary long-term focus even into 2027 and beyond, though he said Warsh's comments need clarificationHatzius agreed with Warsh's firm restatement of a 2% inflation target, but said Goldman's forecast does not include a rate hike for the remainder of the year, arguing natural downward forces including rent and wage inflation make one unnecessary even though one remains possibleFollowing July's surprise nonfarm payrolls decline of 23,000 against an expected 80,000 gain, Goldman sharply cut its estimate of the underlying monthly job creation trend to around 5,000 from roughly 75,000 previouslyAsked how the US economy is doing overall, Hatzius said "pretty well," citing GDP growth of 2% to 2.5% expected over the next one to two years and a low, stable unemployment rate, while acknowledging inflation remains the persistent problem of the past five years Goldman Sachs chief economist and head of global investment research Jan Hatzius told Fox Business in an exclusive interview that he expects Wednesday's July consumer price index reading to look similar to June's more benign print, ahead of a release that could shape the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates. Hatzius said the first five months of 2026 came in worse than expected on inflation, but that June marked the start of a softer trend, with July likely to bring a headline reading around 0.05% month on month and a core reading near 0.19%, both in line with or slightly below consensus expectations.Hatzius pointed to several temporary factors behind the earlier run of hotter inflation, including tariff pass-through, the impact of higher oil prices, particularly on the headline index, and a World Cup related effect, all of which he said are now fading. On tariffs specifically, he said the month to month impact is largely behind the economy, though the year on year effect still adds about 0.7 percentage points to core personal consumption expenditures inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, which is currently running at 3.3%. He expects that tariff contribution to trend toward zero over the next six to twelve months.The interview also touched on a potential shift in how the Fed measures success. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has recently signalled the central bank's preferred inflation measure may change from core PCE, prompting former New York Fed president Bill Dudley to argue in a Bloomberg opinion piece that such a change would damage the Fed's credibility. Hatzius said he did not interpret Warsh's comments as confirming a firm switch away from PCE, describing the answer as left a little open and in need of clarification, and said his own expectation is that PCE remains the Fed's central focus even heading into 2027 and beyond.On the target itself, Hatzius endorsed Warsh's recent firm restatement that the Fed maintains no soft inflation target and is committed to 2%, saying that figure remains the right number and that being off by a few tenths over the long run, as the US was during the two decades before the pandemic when inflation averaged 1.6% to 1.7%, would not represent a serious problem. Even so, he said Goldman's current forecast does not include a rate hike for the remainder of the year, arguing that underlying downward forces, including cooling rent and wage inflation, make further tightening unnecessary, while acknowledging a hike remains possible.The conversation also addressed July's weak labour market data. After Friday's nonfarm payrolls report showed a decline of 23,000 jobs against expectations for an 80,000 gain, Goldman sharply revised down its estimate of the underlying trend in monthly job creation, to around 5,000 from roughly 75,000 previously. Hatzius explained the figure is derived by averaging payroll numbers over the past three months and household survey employment data over the past nine months, a longer window chosen because that survey is noisier, then weighting the two to extract the underlying trend from otherwise volatile monthly readings.Asked in simple terms how the US economy is performing, Hatzius said it is doing pretty well, pointing to expected GDP growth of 2% to 2.5% over the next one to two years, broadly consistent with the economy's sustainable long-term trend, alongside a low and stable unemployment rate. He said inflation remains the standout problem after five years of excessive price growth, but expressed confidence the economy remains on a path toward a better inflation picture as it moves into 2027, even though the process has taken longer than initially expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The move higher in JGB yields, led by a record high on the five year and the highest two year print since May 1995, reflects markets pricing a firmer case for further Bank of Japan tightening as imported inflation risk builds via crude. That the two year, the tenor most sensitive to BOJ policy, is leading the move fits with Tokyo Tanshi data showing traders now assign roughly two in three odds to a September hike. Notably, the rise in domestic yields has not yet translated into yen support, with strategists flagging that the broader external backdrop, rising US long-term yields, firmer crude and a stronger dollar against the yen, remains the dominant force for now. That leaves open the possibility that higher JGB yields could eventually provide the yen with some offsetting support if the rate differential narrative gains more traction, but for the moment external pressures are outweighing the domestic tightening signal. Wednesday's US CPI print looms as a swing factor for both the dollar leg of that equation and the broader path of global yields.---Earlier:Reuters Tankan hits highest manufacturing reading since March on chip boom--- Japan's yields are climbing on inflation risk from abroad, but so far the yen isn't getting the memo.Summary:The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 1.5 basis points to 2.820%, the 5-year rose 1.5 basis points to a record 2.100%, and the 2-year, the tenor most sensitive to BOJ policy, rose 2 basis points to 1.63%, its highest since May 1995The moves came as crude oil prices climbed on renewed Middle East uncertainty, adding to inflation concerns, while investors also awaited key US inflation data for interest rate cluesIran's top security official said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the US accepts Iran's conditions, including release of Iran's frozen assets and an end to conflicts across the region including Lebanon and GazaThe US and Houthi forces reported separate shipping attacks, with Brent crude settling up 1.4% at $88.91 a barrel and US crude up 1.3% at $83.20Analysts say external conditions, including rising US long-term yields, crude prices and a stronger dollar against the yen, are likely to remain a headwindDespite the rise in Japanese yields, that support has yet to show up in the yen, with the external pressures described by Tsuruta currently outweighing any domestic rate differential benefitTraders are increasingly pricing in a further BOJ hike, with Tokyo Tanshi data showing a 66% chance of a move in September as of Monday afternoon Japanese government bond yields rose on Wednesday as crude oil prices climbed on renewed uncertainty over the Middle East, adding to inflation concerns just as investors awaited key US inflation data for further clues on the interest rate outlook. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 1.5 basis points to 2.820%, while the 5-year yield also rose 1.5 basis points to 2.100%, a record high. The 2-year yield, the tenor most sensitive to Bank of Japan policy rates, increased 2 basis points to 1.63%, its highest level since May 1995. Other tenors had yet to trade as of 0019 GMT.The move higher in yields came against a backdrop of fresh geopolitical strain. Iran's top security official said on Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the United States accepts Iran's conditions for ending the conflict, namely the release of Iran's frozen assets and an end to wars across the region, including in Lebanon and Gaza. Separately, the United States and Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis each reported attacks on shipping on Tuesday. Brent crude futures rose $1.19, or 1.4%, to settle at $88.91 a barrel, while US crude rose 1.3% to $83.20.Keisuke Tsuruta, senior bond strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, said external conditions are likely to remain a headwind, pointing to recent rises in US long-term yields, crude oil futures and the dollar against the yen. That comment also underscores a notable disconnect in currency markets, where the rise in JGB yields has yet to provide any meaningful support for the yen. In theory, higher domestic yields should make yen-denominated assets more attractive on a rate differential basis, but for now the external forces Tsuruta describes, a firmer dollar chief among them, continue to dominate. Whether rising Japanese yields eventually translate into yen strength may depend on how much further the Bank of Japan tightening narrative advances relative to the pace of moves in US yields and the dollar.Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index data could prove decisive for the path of interest rates on both sides of the Pacific. Traders are separately increasing bets on further BOJ tightening, with Tokyo Tanshi data showing a 66% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting as of Monday afternoon, up from prior levels, as the combination of imported energy inflation and a resilient domestic growth picture builds the case for the Bank of Japan to act again before year end. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goolsbee's comments carry limited direct market weight given he holds no vote this year, but they land at a moment when the Fed's internal balance of opinion is genuinely contested, with three of twelve voting policymakers already having pushed for a hike in July. His framing reinforces the camp arguing inflation, not labour softness, should dominate the September debate, even as Friday's surprise July payrolls decline has pulled CME futures pricing toward roughly even odds between a hold and a hike next month. That leaves Wednesday's CPI print as the pivotal data point, since a reacceleration in consumer prices, which economists are already anticipating after June's dip, would likely tip sentiment further toward the hawkish camp Goolsbee appears to represent. The absence of forward guidance from both Goolsbee and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh adds an extra layer of uncertainty, leaving markets to trade the data itself rather than any central bank signal about the Fed's reaction function.--- Goolsbee won't say how he'd have voted, but he's left no doubt about which side of the Fed's mandate worries him more.Summary:Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said in a video recorded on 22 June but published by Wired on Tuesday that inflation, not job losses, remains the economy's biggest problem, Reuters reportedHe described the labour market, based on the unemployment rate, hiring rate and layoff rate, as stable without being goodThe Fed held its policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on 29 July, with three of twelve voting policymakers dissenting in favour of a hikeGoolsbee does not hold a vote this year and has not said whether he supported the decision to hold, despite inflation having run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five yearsCME interest rate futures now price roughly even odds of a hold versus a hike at the Fed's September meeting, after traders scaled back tightening bets following Friday's unexpected July payrolls declineEconomists expect Wednesday's data to show consumer price inflation reaccelerated in July after easing in JuneFed Chair Kevin Warsh has avoided signalling a preferred rate path, a stance Goolsbee shares, and in the same video he also said he remains hopeful AI will not cost workers their jobs overall, even as it changes individual tasks Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee is more worried about persistently high inflation than about any weakness in the labour market, though it remains unclear whether that view translated into support for the interest rate hike some of his colleagues pushed for last month, Reuters reported. In a video recorded on 22 June but published by Wired on Tuesday, Goolsbee said the economy's central challenge right now is not job losses but prices rising too fast, adding that the labour market, by his read of the unemployment rate, hiring rate and layoff rate, is stable without being good.The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged in a 3.50% to 3.75% range at its 29 July meeting, with three of the central bank's twelve voting policymakers dissenting in favour of raising rates instead. Goolsbee does not have a vote on policy this year and, according to Reuters, has not indicated whether he backed the decision to hold steady, even as inflation has now run above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years, a period during which many policymakers have continued to expect price growth to eventually resume falling.The policy debate has since been complicated by fresh labour market data. After the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday that the US economy unexpectedly shed jobs in July, traders pared back bets on further tightening, and interest rate futures contracts on CME Group now price roughly equal odds of another hold or a hike at the Fed's September meeting. Economists, meanwhile, expect data due Wednesday to show consumer price inflation reaccelerated last month after easing in June, a release Reuters noted is likely to weigh heavily on how that September decision unfolds.Adding to the uncertainty, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has broken from his immediate predecessors by declining to offer any clear signal on where he believes rates should head next, a position Goolsbee has echoed with his own longstanding scepticism toward formal forward guidance. In the same video, Goolsbee did not offer a specific view on the appropriate policy setting, but did field a range of public questions on topics including whether artificial intelligence will erode the job market and how to spot a counterfeit hundred dollar bill. On AI, he struck a broadly optimistic note, saying that while the technology may reshape or remove individual tasks within jobs, he remains hopeful the economy will find ways to keep people employed overall.Note: the seven week gap between recording and release!Neither Reuters nor Wired addressed why a video recorded on 22 June surfaced only on 11 August, but the timing is worth flagging for readers before the comments are read as a fresh reaction to this week's setup. The content itself, Goolsbee fielding general public questions on topics like AI and job losses and how to spot a counterfeit note, reads as an evergreen explainer format rather than news-driven commentary, the kind of piece typically shot well ahead of publication and slotted in based on production scheduling rather than released the moment it's recorded.That said, the release date lands squarely in the window between Friday's surprise July payrolls miss and Wednesday's CPI print, precisely when a senior Fed official emphasising inflation over jobs carries more weight than it would have in late June. Whether that timing was deliberate or coincidental isn't established by the reporting, but it's worth being explicit in any write-up that Goolsbee's framing predates both the July jobs data and the run-up to September, rather than treating it as a live response to either.---CPI data coming up later today, 0830 US Eastern time:: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

MUFG's framing puts the RBA firmly in the same bucket as other central banks now watching an externally driven inflation shock rather than a domestically generated one, which changes the calculus for how quickly policy might need to respond. The bank reads today's RBA communication as deliberately unhurried rather than dovish, arguing the Board has bought itself time by leaning on softer unemployment and property market signals even while Governor Bullock left the door open to another hike. Markets have already begun pricing that risk, with the two year yield drifting a few basis points higher and a full hike now priced in by next March, a shift MUFG says is entirely attributable to external, not domestic, inflation risk. The bank's own base case still assumes a Middle East deal gets done before the US mid-terms in November, avoiding the need for the RBA to act, but frames this explicitly as a close call rather than a comfortable assumption. In FX, MUFG sees scope for AUD/JPY to retrace more of its late July intervention driven fall, a view consistent with the currently low volatility backdrop it flags elsewhere in its research.---Earlier:MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsNAB on RBA wording shift: Outlook relatively even handed, sees first rate cut mid-2027Westpac says RBA hold looks entrenched despite hawkish inflation guardrailRBA holds cash rate at 4.35pc for second meeting, flags scope to hike again - analyst take--- MUFG isn't forecasting a hike, but it isn't ruling one out either, and neither is the RBA.Summary:MUFG notes Brent crude has extended its rise again with no sign of a breakthrough on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, after President Trump hardened his position by rejecting Iran's reparations demand and arguing Iran must pay for past regional aggressionsThe bank warns that if energy prices keep climbing, September could become a busy month for central banks that may feel compelled to hike rates in response to renewed inflation riskThe RBA held rates at Tuesday's meeting and, while MUFG says a September hike is possible if energy prices rise notably in the coming weeks, it detected no sense of urgency in the Bank's communicationMUFG notes the RBA's own updated forecasts show headline and underlying inflation not reaching the 2.5% midpoint of the target range until early 2028, a profile the bank says implies any worsening of external inflation risk would likely prompt further RBA actionGovernor Michele Bullock said it remained quite possible the RBA would need to raise rates again, weighing weaker domestic conditions, including higher unemployment and a softening property market, against unpredictable upside inflation risk from abroadMUFG's base case assumes the Middle East conflict does not escalate further and a deal is reached before the US mid-term elections in November, meaning the RBA would not need to hike again, though it describes this as a close callAustralia's two year yield rose 2 to 3 basis points on the day and markets are now nearly fully pricing one more RBA hike by next March, a risk MUFG says stems entirely from external inflation pressure Brent crude oil extended its recent gains again, MUFG said, with no sign yet of a breakthrough that would allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The bank pointed to a hardening in President Trump's public position as a key driver, noting he has rejected Iran's request for reparations and argued instead that Iran must pay for past aggressions across the region. That escalation in rhetoric, MUFG said, raises the risk that inflation pressures tied to the conflict could build again just as markets had begun to hope for de-escalation.The bank's central concern is that a further rise in energy prices could turn September into a busy month for central banks more broadly, several of which may feel compelled to respond with rate hikes if the inflationary impulse from the Middle East intensifies. The Reserve Bank of Australia, which met on the same day, was cited as a case in point. MUFG said a September hike remains possible should energy prices rise notably over the coming weeks, but it detected no particular sense of urgency in the RBA's communication. The suggestion, in the bank's reading, was that with monetary policy already assessed as somewhat restrictive, the RBA has room to wait and must weigh that against signs of higher unemployment and a weakening property market before deciding on any further tightening.That said, MUFG was careful to note Governor Michele Bullock's acknowledgement that it remained quite possible the RBA would need to raise rates again, a comment the bank reads as evidence the Board, like several of its global peers, is now weighing softer domestic conditions against unpredictable upside inflation risk originating offshore. The RBA's updated forecasts reinforced that tension, with headline and underlying inflation not expected to reach the 2.5% midpoint of the target range until early 2028, a profile MUFG says implies the Bank would likely need to act again if external inflation risks were to worsen from here.For now, MUFG's own assumption is that an escalation in the Middle East will be avoided and that a deal will ultimately be reached before the US mid-term elections in November, meaning the RBA should not need to raise rates further. But the bank was explicit that this is a close call, a view it says was reinforced by the tone of today's RBA communication. Markets have already begun to reflect that uncertainty, with Australia's two year yield drifting 2 to 3 basis points higher on the day and one additional rate hike now nearly fully priced in by next March, a risk MUFG attributes entirely to external inflationary pressure rather than anything domestic. Against a backdrop of otherwise low foreign exchange volatility, the bank also sees scope for AUD/JPY to retrace more of the drop triggered by intervention at the end of July. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The improvement in both readings, and particularly the jump in the chemicals and metal and machinery sub-indexes, points to semiconductor supply chain strength continuing to broaden out across Japan's industrial base rather than staying concentrated in a narrow set of chipmakers. That the manufacturers' index has reached its best level since March suggests the earlier drag from global trade uncertainty has largely faded for exporters tied to chip demand, even as flat transport equipment sentiment shows the auto sector has not shared in the recovery. On the services side, broad based gains across wholesale trade, information services and other categories reinforce the picture of resilient domestic demand supporting the non-manufacturing index near its highs. The modest expected easing in the manufacturers' three-month outlook, to plus 16 from the current plus 18, signals some caution creeping in even as the headline trend remains constructive, a nuance likely to feed into expectations for the Bank of Japan's own quarterly Tankan due in coming weeks.---Earlier:Yen strength still hinges on BOJ hike, not capital repatriation (or intervention!), Goldman says--- Japan's chipmakers just gave the broader economy a confidence boost, even as automakers sat the rally out.Summary:The Reuters Tankan survey showed Japan's manufacturers' sentiment index rising to plus 18 in August from plus 13 in July, the highest reading since March 2026Non-manufacturers' sentiment climbed to plus 28 from plus 25 over the same period, supported by strong domestic consumptionThe three-month outlook points to some easing ahead, with manufacturers expected to slip to plus 16 in November while non-manufacturers are seen holding at plus 28Semiconductor related demand was the standout driver, with the chemicals sub-index jumping to plus 33 from plus 23 and metal and machinery improving to plus 25 from plus 12, while transport equipment stayed flat at zero amid mixed conditions in the auto sectorSurvey respondents described exceptionally strong order intake tied to chip demand, with one precision machinery manager reporting roughly double the normal order volumeThe August poll was conducted from 29 July to 6 August, gathering responses from 219 of the 510 firms surveyed, with index levels calculated as the share of optimistic responses minus the share of pessimistic ones Japanese business confidence improved in August, according to the latest Reuters Tankan survey, as manufacturers benefited from robust semiconductor demand while non-manufacturers were supported by resilient domestic consumption. The monthly poll, widely watched as a leading indicator of the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan survey, showed the manufacturers' sentiment index rising to plus 18 in August from plus 13 in July, its highest level since March 2026. Non-manufacturers' confidence also improved, climbing to plus 28 from plus 25.The August survey was conducted between 29 July and 6 August, drawing responses from 219 of the 510 firms polled. As with the official Tankan, the index is calculated by subtracting the proportion of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones, meaning a positive reading signals net optimism among respondents.Semiconductor related industries were the clearest driver of the manufacturing improvement. The chemicals sub-index jumped to plus 33 from plus 23, while the metal and machinery industry index rose to plus 25 from plus 12. One machinery maker manager quoted in the survey said strong demand for semiconductor related products was driving robust order intake, while a respondent from the precision machinery sector said orders had improved markedly since April, both domestically and overseas, describing current order volumes as roughly double the norm and calling the situation unprecedented. Transport equipment was the notable laggard, holding flat at zero and reflecting ongoing mixed conditions across the automotive sector.On the non-manufacturing side, the improvement was broad based rather than concentrated in a single sector, with gains reported across wholesale trade, information services and other service categories. Looking ahead, manufacturers expect sentiment to remain largely stable but see some softening, with the index forecast to ease to plus 16 in November, a reading that suggests a degree of caution about the business outlook even as current conditions remain firm. Non-manufacturers, by contrast, expect their index to hold steady at plus 28 over the same period.---Reuters Tankan versus the Bank of Japan's quarterly TankanThe Reuters Tankan and the Bank of Japan's official Tankan measure the same underlying concept, business sentiment among Japanese firms, using the same diffusion index methodology of subtracting the share of pessimistic responses from optimistic ones. Both surveys split results between manufacturers and non-manufacturers and both ask firms for a near term outlook alongside their assessment of current conditions, which is why the Reuters poll is closely watched as an early read on where the official figures are likely to land.The key differences are frequency, scale and timing. The Reuters Tankan is conducted monthly and polls a smaller panel, several hundred firms rather than the BOJ's much larger sample of several thousand companies used in the quarterly survey, so it trades some statistical depth for speed. Because it is published well ahead of the BOJ's quarterly release, it functions as a rolling proxy that can pick up shifts in sentiment, such as the semiconductor driven improvement seen this month, before they show up in the official data. The BOJ Tankan, released only four times a year, remains the more comprehensive and closely scrutinised gauge for actual policy decisions, including its influence on market expectations for interest rates, but the monthly Reuters version gives traders and analysts a more frequent pulse check in between those quarterly readings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

National Australia Bank analyst framing puts less weight on the RBA's unchanged headline numbers and more on the subtle language shift between June and August, arguing that a smaller output gap and a "somewhat restrictive" description of financial conditions together suggest the Board thinks the economy no longer needs to slow further to bring inflation to target. That reading, if it holds, implies a steadier and more predictable growth path than markets may have been pricing, with quarterly GDP settling into a narrow 0.3 to 0.4% band through to mid-2027 rather than the more pronounced deceleration some had expected. NAB's own rate view is unchanged by the meeting: a hold through the remainder of 2026 followed by an easing cycle beginning around the middle of next year, a timeline that sits later than some peers but is consistent with the bank's characterisation of the RBA's current stance as balanced rather than either hawkish or dovish.---Earlier:Westpac says RBA hold looks entrenched despite hawkish inflation guardrailRBA holds cash rate at 4.35pc for second meeting, flags scope to hike again - analyst take---NAB thinks the RBA's word choices are quietly saying the hard work of slowing the economy is already done.Summary:The RBA Monetary Policy Board unanimously left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August, with the Statement on Monetary Policy making only modest tweaks to the forecast setNAB notes there was no change to the expectation that core inflation returns to the target band in the second half of 2027Financial conditions were described as somewhat restrictive, and the output gap is now assessed as a little smaller than it was in MayNAB chief economist Sally Auld and head of Australian economics Gareth Spence say risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, meaning the RBA will stay watchful, but see signs the economy is adjusting as required based on small wording changes since JuneOne interpretation NAB offers is that the Board believes no further economic slowing is needed, just a steady quarterly GDP growth run rate of around 0.3 to 0.4% through to mid-2027NAB continues to forecast the RBA on hold through 2026, with the next move in the cash rate expected to be a cut around mid-2027, and describes the Bank's current outlook as relatively even handedAuld and Spence say it is likely to be some time yet before the RBA becomes more comfortable with the inflation outlook The Reserve Bank of Australia's Monetary Policy Board left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in a unanimous decision at its August meeting, with National Australia Bank arguing the more telling signal lies in subtle changes to the Bank's language rather than in the decision itself. NAB chief economist Sally Auld and head of Australian economics Gareth Spence said the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy made only modest adjustments to the forecast set, with no change to the expectation that core inflation returns to the target band in the second half of 2027.Two specific shifts caught NAB's attention. Financial conditions are now described as somewhat restrictive, and the output gap is assessed as a little smaller than it was in May. Auld and Spence said these small wording changes since June point to signs the economy is adjusting as required, and offered a reading that the Board now believes no further slowing is necessary, with growth instead settling into a steady quarterly run rate of around 0.3 to 0.4% through to the middle of 2027.Despite that relatively benign read on growth, NAB was careful to note that risks to inflation are still assessed as skewed to the upside, which the bank says means the RBA will remain watchful rather than declaring victory. Auld and Spence characterised the Bank's overall posture as relatively even handed, balancing the improved growth and output gap assessment against continued caution on the inflation outlook.On the policy path, NAB's own forecast is unchanged by this meeting. The bank continues to expect the RBA to hold the cash rate steady through the remainder of 2026, with the first cut still expected around the middle of 2027. Auld and Spence said it was likely to be some time yet before the Board became more comfortable with where inflation is heading, a view consistent with NAB's later timeline for the start of an easing cycle relative to some other bank forecasts currently in the market. Taken together, NAB's note frames the August decision less as a change in direction than as a confirmation that the RBA's current settings are working roughly as intended, with the central bank in no hurry to move in either direction until the inflation picture becomes clearer.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.