Inflation expectations:1-year ahead 2.8% vs 2.8% prior3-year ahead 2.6% vs 2.5% prior5-year ahead 2.4% vs 2.2% prior - the highest since the survey beganFull report here"Respondents in lower income quintiles continued to report on average slightly higher inflation perceptions and short-horizon expectations than those in higher income quintiles, a trend observed since 2023. However, the broad evolution of inflation perceptions and expectations remained relatively closely aligned across income groups."Actual inflation data eased recently which prompted the market to pare back the slightly hawkish bets it started to take in December. Having said that, growth has been surprising to the upside and the labour market continues to remain resilient with the unemployment rate hovering around record lows.The German fiscal boost, the ECB rate cuts and the easing in uncertainty seen in 2025 could all be positive drivers for growth and eventually for inflation. That's why the ECB members have been keeping all options on the table and giving the same odds to both a rate cut or a rate hike as the next move. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.1%The Italian economy continues to hold up modestly and reaffirm more resilience to end the final quarter of last year. Overall, the economy expanded by 0.7% in 2025 and that's a positive showing in keeping with the tone of more solid growth conditions in the periphery nations.Italian inflation pressures are also kept well under control, being one of the brighter and less troubling spots for the euro area last year.The tables have certainly turned with France now being the bad egg of the region, not least also plagued by political and fiscal worries - the two things that have placed Italy at the bottom of the ladder previously. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The other German state releases around the same time as per the following:Hesse CPI +% vs +2.2% y/y priorNorth Rhine Westphalia CPI +2.0% vs +1.9% y/y priorSaxony CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y priorBaden Wuerttemberg CPI +2.1% vs +1.9% y/y priorThe annual figures here are all higher than seen in December, which fits with estimates for the national reading later. German headline annual inflation is expected to rise to 2.0% to start the year, up from 1.8% previously. Based on the state figures, we should expect that estimate to come in around 2.0% to 2.1% at the balance.But as always is the case, the key statistic to watch will be the core annual inflation estimate once again. Overall, that was seen at 2.8% in 2025 and the more stubborn price pressures in Europe's largest economy here is still posing some trouble for the ECB.Services inflation is the main culprit, seen at 3.5% for the year and that is preventing the central bank from fully pursuing a push towards their desired 2% inflation target level.As such, this will continue to be a key spot to watch in terms of inflation developments for the euro area as it remains the major issue for the ECB in trying to manage policy setting. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%As a whole, the German economy also posted 0.3% growth in GDP for the year 2025. That as private and government consumption expenditures, in particular, increased. Meanwhile, it was a very turbulent year for foreign trade - not least due to Trump's tariffs surely. So, that definitely presented a more challenging environment for the German economy to navigate through.The bright side is that higher and more stubborn price pressures are not quite eating too much into overall demand, with the services sector at least keeping firmer. The manufacturing side of things remain in struggling territory, so that will continue to be a bit of a pain as we get into the new year.For now, Europe's largest economy is keeping somewhat resilient and the hope is that overall conditions can hang in there all the way through until we see the fiscal tailwind kick into gear. However, a softening labour market picture could pose some concerns in the months ahead. So, that will be something to be wary about.That as stagflation risks remain a potential point of worry for Germany and perhaps the euro area as we get into 2026. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 3kUnemployment rate 6.3% vs 6.3% expectedPrior 6.3%German unemployment was unchanged in January with the jobless rate keeping steadier to start the new year. The overall unemployment figure remained the same as in December, at 2.976 million, but the labour office warns that the outlook remains challenging with there being "little momentum" in the labour market currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

S&P 500 futures are now down 0.9% on the day as losses continue to build to start European morning trade. Tech shares are leading declines once more with Nasdaq futures down 1.1% currently. Meanwhile in Europe, major indices are holding slight gains after the more sluggish showing late yesterday. Germany's benchmark DAX index is at least looking to recover some poise after three straight days of declines, sitting up 0.7% currently.There is plenty to digest in terms of market happenings in the last 24 hours. For one, the heavy selling in precious metals is causing a stir as volatility spikes look to be more frequent in ending the week/month. That especially as correction risks are starting to build for both gold and silver, so that's unsettling investors somewhat.Then, there was the volatile swings in Wall Street yesterday too with the S&P 500 briefly flirting with record highs early in the day before falling by 1.5% and then recovering to close just 0.1% lower. The tumultuous action was not helped by Microsoft posting a roughly 10% drop post-earnings, its worst one-day decline since March 2020.Sticking with earnings, Apple posted a blockbuster result in after hours but that isn't enough to lift sentiment today. The tech giant topped Q1 earnings estimates on record-breaking iPhone sales. However, Apple CEO, Tim Cook, warned that the global memory crunch is going to hit the company's margins going forward.Besides that, we also have Trump's pick of Fed chair in anticipation as Kevin Warsh looks to be the favourite now. It's a mixed stance as Warsh has been previously critical of loose monetary policy in labelling that "inflation is a choice". However, he has recently aligned himself with Trump's vision for lower interest rates so I guess that should be the more important thing to keep in mind. One has to do some politicking to get the job and to stay in it, he has to play the part in keeping Trump happy.And then, there's also the prospect of a US government shutdown after a dramatic late-night session where the Democrats blocked major funding package that would have funded roughly 96% of the government through September.But shortly after the vote failed, Trump and Senate majority leader Schumer reportedly struck a tentative agreement to prevent a total collapse. That being said, we could still be facing a "technical" shutdown come what may.Even if the Senate passes the deal today, the House cannot vote on it until Monday - when it is scheduled to return to session. As such, some government functions may be technically closed for the next 48 to 72 hours as a result. So, we'll see.And adding to all this, there's also month-end flows that could be causing some shenanigans in the flows we're seeing. It's a mix of everything and that is keeping markets on edge somewhat in just wanting to get through the weekend to get some clarity when we get into February trading next week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe strong bullish momentum seems to have waned for the time being as we enter a potential pivotal month for gold. It’s not clear what caused yesterday’s drop as pretty much all markets went down at the same time. There were only talks of multiple US warships arriving in the Middle East but given that oil prices dropped too, I wouldn’t bet on that reason. Overnight, we got reports that Trump was going to announce his Fed chair pick today and everything suggested that it was going to be Kevin Warsh. We got a hawkish reaction across markets as Warsh was a hawk during his last term at the Fed, although the historical stance is never a guarantee. The narratives underpinning gold in the past several months have been the same, that is de-dollarisation, geopolitical tensions, and so on. Given the lack of bearish catalysts, the price continued to rise just by inertia. We reached a point where it looks like just FOMO rather than something fundamental because these prices are not justified in the short-term. Since last week, I’ve been turning more bearish in the short-term as I feel like we are reaching an inflection point and February could be the first major negative month for precious metals if the right conditions fall in place. The most important catalyst next week could be the US NFP report. We’ve been seeing improvements in the US Jobless Claims data that seem to suggest a pickup in labour market activity. A strong report would trigger a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations and put pressure on gold. The other top tier data could also start to weigh on gold if they come out strong, but the NFP report should be the main event of the week. In case we don’t get the bearish catalysts, gold could keep on rising just by inertia. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see gold sold off back to the upper bound of the channel which is now acting as support. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into new record highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into the bottom trendline around the 4600 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the rejections at the upper bound of the channel as the dip-buyers started to step in. There’s not much we can add here as the buyers will continue to pile in to target new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to extend the drop into the next trendline around the 4800 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor downward trendline that could define a potential future triangle as the price consolidates here. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new record highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US PPI report and Trump’s announcement of his Fed chair pick. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Gold experienced sharp intraday fluctuations following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, trimming earlier losses on Thursday after peaking near $5,600. XAUUSD was trading around $5,315, down 1.83%, underscoring just how quickly price action can accelerate and reverse in volatile conditions. In markets like these, the difference between brokers is no longer theoretical. When prices move this fast, infrastructure decides outcomes.Such movements serve as a reminder that in today’s markets, volatility is no longer an exception — it is a defining feature. When price action moves this rapidly, a broker's technical stability becomes the primary driver of the trading outcomes. In environments where some platforms retreat to protect their own interests, VT Markets remains committed to maintaining a robust environment by leveraging deep, multi-bank liquidity pools and institutional-grade execution infrastructure. This is part of a dedicated effort to ensure traders stay connected to the market and actively manage risk exactly when it matters most, rather than being forced to absorb it.When Markets Move Fast, Some Brokers Pull BackDuring volatile XAU/USD sessions, many traders face order rejections and frozen platforms. While labeled as "risk controls," these are often liquidity gates used by under-capitalised brokers to shield their own balance sheets.From a trader’s perspective, the result is catastrophic: Stop-losses fail to trigger at the intended levels, positions cannot be managed, and execution latency spikes. When a broker limits execution during volatility, market risk does not disappear; it is unilaterally shifted from the broker’s balance sheet directly onto the trader. Liquidity Access Under Stress is the Real DifferentiatorAt the core of these disruptions is a factor rarely discussed in marketing materials: liquidity access under stress.In stable markets, many trading platforms appear comparable. However, the true test of a broker occurs during high-impact news events — such as Fed pivots or geopolitical shifts — when market depth typically evaporates. In these moments, pricing gaps widen, order books thin, and brokers are forced to filter or reject trades to protect their own exposure, often leading to massive slippage or the total disabling of trade buttons.This is where the liquidity engine proves its value. By consolidating real-time feeds from Tier-1 investment banks and non-bank market makers, a trustworthy broker should be capable of maintaining an order book that remains resilient even during extreme price gaps. This institutional-grade setup ensures that if one provider pulls back, others in the pool absorb the flow. For the trader, this translates into superior fill rates and reduced asymmetric slippage when it matters most. By investing in this architecture, VT Markets ensures its clients are tapped into a global network designed for performance under pressure. In essence, stability is not merely a marketing claim; it is a promise to keep traders connected to the market regardless of how fast it moves. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.5% This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There is arguably just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1900 level. The expiries don't tie to any technical significance but are resting just under the 100-hour moving average of 1.1935 currently. The pair is finding a bit of a push and pull in trying to keep above 1.1900 with bids layered there too during the week, so the expiries will add another layer in defending that.However, dollar sentiment remains the main driver at the moment. And that will largely be affected by the action in precious metals. As gold and silver are down and may be poised to correct further, that will invite dollar shorts to be covered as well. As such, the impact of the expiries will be lesser when accounting for this key factor driving trading sentiment currently.There are other large ones at 1.1800 and 1.1850 which could come into play, that is should the dollar jump much higher if we do see a much sharper decline in both gold and silver. That also as risk sentiment starts to get rocked by the profit-taking and volatility in precious metals.So, just keep that in mind as that is the bigger thing to watch out for in not only commodities but also major currencies at the moment. You have to keep your eye on what is happening with gold and silver to have a gauge of the spillover impact towards the dollar and the rest of the FX space.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.5%GDP +1.1% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +0.9%The headline reading meets estimates as the French economy grew slightly in the final quarter of last year. Overall, French GDP expanded by 0.9% in 2025 and that's a slight decline from the 1.1% growth seen in 2024.Looking at the breakdown for the year, household consumption posted a modest growth of 0.4% on the year with the final quarter coming in strong as well with a 0.3% jump. Total government expenditure was up 1.7% on the year with imports up 2.9% while exports were up 1.4% in terms of overall growth contributions.In terms of actual percentage contributions, internal demand excluding inventory changes accounted for 0.7% of GDP growth. Meanwhile, inventory changes itself also accounted for 0.7%. The offsetting line was net foreign trade, which subtracted 0.5% from GDP.Here's the full breakdown: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Market players will be watching precious metals closely as we look to wrap up January trading. That will not only have an impact in the commodities space but there will be broader spillovers to the likes of the dollar and risk sentiment as well. As we see the profit-taking and volatility swings accelerate, it could cause a bit of a ruckus and mess in the day ahead.The dollar is already holding firmer across the board now with gold dropping by 3% to around $5,200 and silver down some 4% to $110 levels at the moment. It's wild to think that even with a $500 drop in gold in a day, it isn't exactly a "big deal" for markets like what we saw yesterday. But now, the nerves are starting to creep in and that is resulting in broader reverberations elsewhere.Looking to European trading, we will have plenty of data points to work through but none of which will be all too impactful. The ECB is to remain on the sidelines indefinitely, awaiting a shift in the fundamental narrative especially on the German economy.Today, we will be getting the latest inflation snapshot for Germany. However, it's not likely to offer much unless the numbers surprise with a heavy deviation. But even then, it's just one data point and not something that will get the ECB to rush off their seats.0630 GMT - France Q4 preliminary GDP figures0700 GMT - Germany December import price index0800 GMT - Spain Q4 preliminary GDP figures0800 GMT - Spain January preliminary CPI figures0855 GMT - Germany January unemployment change, rate0900 GMT - Germany Q4 preliminary GDP figures0900 GMT - Germany January state CPI readings0900 GMT - Italy Q4 preliminary GDP figures0900 GMT - UK December mortgage approvals, credit data1000 GMT - Eurozone Q4 preliminary GDP figures1300 GMT - Germany January preliminary CPI figures This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Things are certainly heating up as we clock into the final trading day of January. Precious metals were hit by a quick bout of profit-taking in US trading yesterday, which briefly sent gold down to a low of $5,097. Dip buyers didn't take long to step in but since then, the volatility swings are very much continuing.Of note, dip buyers put up a defense at a key near-term level in defending the 100-hour moving average. That is also helped by bids layered at the $5,100 mark perhaps. Looking closer at price action, things are looking dicey now with gold dipping back under the key near-term level (red line):A firm break under the 100-hour moving average of $5,225 will help to keep buyers and those in long positions on their toes. That as profit-taking action could hit hard and fast, resulting in a more significant correction.As a reminder, profit-taking begets profit-taking and is a cascading move when it comes to market sentiment. That especially on any asset that goes parabolic, like what we've seen with gold and silver this month. So, just be wary of that.For now, the technical lines continue to suggest that we're not quite there yet as dip buyers are still hanging on. I would argue a firmer break under the $5,100 mark as well as the 200-hour moving average (blue line) would be much needed to confirm a potential for a much stronger retracement in price action.The other thing to note is that the January seasonal tailwind is coming to an end for gold. February is still a decent month for gold, with the precious metal average roughly 1% gains on the second month of the new year over the past two decades. That being said, gold has traded down in 5 out of the last 8 February months. And in that stretch, a gain in January has coincided with a corresponding decline in February for gold prices with exception to 2025. So, make what you will of that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley sticks with Nvidia, says underperformance is overblownTrump warns UK over China ties as Starmer hails diplomatic resetUSD higher everywhere. Crypto particularly hard hit. BTC/USD lows circa $81K.London Metal Exchange resumed trading at 0200 GMT after a one-hour delayRBA tipped to hike to 3.85% in February after inflation surprise - pollWSJ reported Trump and Senate Democrats struck a shutdown-avoidance dealTrump signals talks with Iran amid rising military tensionsPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9678 (vs. estimate at 6.9459)UK business confidence slips as global economic worries intensifyUSD has jumped on rumors Kevin Warsh will be new Fed Chair, announcement due FridayJapan's factory output edged down in December, nat as bad as expectedTokyo inflation cools in January, reducing BoJ rate hike urgency. Weight on yen.Latest Trump tantrum, threatens 50% aircraft tariff on Canada over jet certification fightJapan inflation - January Tokyo CPI Headline 1.5% y/y (prior 2%)US Treasury says yuan undervalued, urges China to allow appreciationUS shutdown risk eases as Senate splits DHS funding, adopts stopgapUBS ramps up gold targets, flags $7,200 bull case as demand surgesNZ consumer confidence hits four-year high in January as retail gauge turns positiveApple beats Q1 estimates as iPhone revenue jumps and China surprisesSandisk delivered a major beat on both earnings and revenue, stock price soarsVisa beats Q1 estimates as cross-border volumes rise 12%investingLive Americas market news wrap: Gold goes for a wild rideAt a glance:The Trump administration is preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, lifting the USD on hawkish assumptions.Tokyo CPI cooled in January, easing near-term pressure on the BoJ to hike again; USD/JPY rose more on Warsh news than Japan data.Apple forecast a sharp rebound in March-quarter revenue, led by iPhone demand and China.New Zealand consumer confidence hit a four-year high in January.Metals were mildly softer, while a Panama court ruling raised fresh risks for Chinese port ownership.The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with Donald Trump expected to announce his decision on Friday morning. Warsh is understood to be on a four-person shortlist and visited the White House on Thursday, though sources cautioned that the decision is not final until Trump makes a formal announcement. Other candidates under consideration include Kevin Hassett, Christopher Waller, and Rick Rieder of BlackRock.The US dollar strengthened broadly on the report, with markets treating Warsh as a hawkish appointment. That assumption is being questioned in some quarters. While Warsh was clearly hawkish prior to aligning himself with Trump, it is less obvious that a Trump-appointed Fed chair would be encouraged to maintain that stance. The question for markets is why Trump would choose a genuinely hawkish central banker.In Japan, Tokyo inflation data for January came in softer than expected. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% y/y from 2.0%, while core inflation eased to 2.0% from 2.3%. Underlying measures also cooled, reducing the urgency for further Bank of Japan rate hikes following December’s move to a 30-year high. Labour market conditions remained firm, but USD/JPY gained far more on the Warsh news than on the CPI release.Elsewhere, Apple forecast revenue growth of up to 16% for the March quarter, comfortably ahead of expectations, driven by strong iPhone demand and a rebound in China. In New Zealand, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rose to its highest level since August 2021.Metals were mildly pressured, with spot gold and silver lower and CME copper futures softer. Trading on the London Metal Exchange was briefly delayed by technical issues. Finally, a Panama court voided port contracts held by CK Hutchison, raising fresh concerns over Chinese infrastructure ownership. Asia-Pac stocks: Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.03%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) -1.78% Shanghai Composite -1.19%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.67%Bitcoin continue to post lower lows: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley says Nvidia’s recent share lag is overdone, backing the stock to outperform as AI demand stays strong and the Vera Rubin platform reinforces its dominance.Summary:Morgan Stanley reiterated its Overweight rating and $250 price target on Nvidia, arguing recent share underperformance is overdone.The bank says market checks across AI infrastructure remain “very strong and getting stronger,” with near-term upside likely.Investor concerns around AI financing, competition and market share are seen as overstated.Morgan Stanley expects Nvidia to maintain around 85% revenue share in 2026.The upcoming Vera Rubin platform is highlighted as a key catalyst to reassert Nvidia’s leadership.Morgan Stanley note earlier this week. Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its bullish stance on Nvidia, arguing that the stock’s recent underperformance does not reflect the underlying strength of demand across the artificial intelligence ecosystem.The bank reiterated its Overweight rating and $250 price target, saying investor sentiment has become overly cautious despite what it describes as a “very robust AI environment.” Morgan Stanley said its latest market checks across the AI supply chain remain strong and are continuing to improve, reinforcing confidence in Nvidia’s growth outlook.Nvidia shares have lagged the broader semiconductor sector so far this year, even as expectations for near-term earnings remain elevated. Morgan Stanley said this disconnect has puzzled investors, particularly given widespread bullish assumptions already embedded in forecasts. The firm noted it is increasingly hearing references to earnings power of more than $9 per share this year, compared with consensus expectations closer to $7.75, making further upside “highly likely.”One factor weighing on sentiment has been concern around the financing of frontier AI model developers and Nvidia’s role within that ecosystem. Morgan Stanley acknowledged this requires some adjustment in how investors think about the company’s exposure, but argued fears of so-called circular financing are overstated. The bank said Nvidia operates across a broad customer base and would benefit even if AI spending becomes more diversified rather than concentrated.Concerns around competitive pressure from custom silicon, including ASICs developed by rivals and alternative GPUs from AMD, have also resurfaced. Morgan Stanley dismissed these worries as “overblown,” noting that Nvidia gained market share in 2025 and is expected to retain roughly 85% of AI accelerator revenue in 2026. While customers are exploring supply diversification, the bank said Nvidia’s integrated approach remains a key advantage.A central pillar of Morgan Stanley’s bullish thesis is the upcoming Vera Rubin platform, which it believes will provide a clear demonstration of Nvidia’s continued technological leadership. Unlike many competitors, Nvidia can offer rack-scale connectivity, software integration and system-level performance, reinforcing its dominance in large-scale AI deployments.The bank also cautioned that Nvidia’s share lag partly reflects a broader rotation within semiconductors, as investors chase names with higher short-term leverage to AI buildouts. Even so, Morgan Stanley said Nvidia remains best positioned to outperform over time.“The bottom line is that we see the stock outperforming from here,” the firm said, arguing Nvidia is well placed to climb the current “wall of worry” as execution and new platforms reassert its leadership. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump warned Britain against deepening China ties just as Starmer hailed progress from a rare UK prime ministerial visit to Beijing.Summary:President Donald Trump warned Britain against deepening economic ties with China as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pursued a reset in relations during a high-profile visit to Beijing.Starmer held extended talks with Xi Jinping, becoming the first UK prime minister to visit China since 2018.The UK leader highlighted gains on market access, visa-free travel and reduced whisky tariffs, framing engagement as pragmatic rather than ideological.Trump’s comments reflect broader unease among US allies amid tariff threats and geopolitical unpredictability.The episode underscores growing pressure on Western leaders to balance US relations with economic engagement in China.Tensions between Washington and its allies over China policy were brought into sharp focus after US President Donald Trump warned Britain against closer economic engagement with Beijing, even as Prime Minister Keir Starmer promoted a reset in UK–China relations during a landmark visit.Starmer met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday for talks lasting around three hours, marking the first visit by a British prime minister since 2018. The discussions ranged from trade and investment to cultural links, with Starmer calling for a “more sophisticated relationship” built on improved market access, lower tariffs and new investment opportunities. He also highlighted agreements on visa-free travel and reduced whisky tariffs as tangible and symbolic steps forward.Addressing the UK–China Business Forum, Starmer described his meetings with Xi as “very warm” and said the engagement delivered “just the level of progress that we hoped for,” arguing Britain has much to offer the world’s second-largest economy. For Starmer’s Labour government, which has struggled to generate the growth it promised, strengthening ties with China has become a key economic priority.In Washington, however, Trump struck a starkly different tone. Asked about Britain’s outreach to Beijing, he warned that closer ties were “very dangerous,” offering no further detail. The remarks came amid a period of heightened uncertainty for US allies, following Trump’s threats of tariffs, his criticism of NATO partners and his controversial comments on Greenland.Starmer has sought to position Britain as capable of maintaining strong relations with both Washington and Beijing. He stressed that the UK’s ties with the United States — spanning defence, intelligence and trade — remain among its closest, and insisted Britain would not be forced to choose between the two powers. He pointed to Trump’s planned visit to Britain later this year, during which major US investment commitments are expected to be highlighted.Other Western leaders are also stepping up engagement with China, including Emmanuel Macron, who visited late last year, and Germany’s Friedrich Merz, who is expected to travel soon. Yet US officials remain sceptical. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick warned that exporting to China remains difficult, casting doubt on whether Britain’s efforts will deliver meaningful economic returns.The episode highlights a widening strategic dilemma for US allies: how to pursue economic opportunity in China while managing political and security ties with an increasingly unpredictable Washington. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The USD rose broadly on this:USD has jumped on rumors Kevin Warsh will be new Fed Chair, announcement due FridayAs the hours have passed folks are becoming more confident it Warsh. They say he's a hawk. I'm skeptical. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The London Metal Exchange resumed trading at 0200 GMT after a one-hour delay caused by technical issues on its LMEselect platform.LME usually operates LMEselect from 1 a.m. to 7 p.m. London time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Economists now expect the RBA to hike rates to 3.85% in February after inflation surprised to the upside, though most see only limited further tightening.Via Reuters polling. Summary:A strong majority of economists now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate by 25bp to 3.85% on February 3.The shift follows hotter-than-expected Q4 inflation, particularly in the trimmed mean measure.Expectations have flipped sharply since December, when most forecasters anticipated rates staying at 3.60%.Major Australian banks now all forecast a February hike, though few see a prolonged tightening cycle.Economists expect rates to remain broadly on hold through 2026 once the peak is reached.Expectations for Australian monetary policy have shifted decisively, with most economists now forecasting a February rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia after inflation surprised on the upside late last year.According to a Reuters poll, 24 of 31 economists expect the RBA to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% at the conclusion of its February 3 policy meeting. Just seven respondents anticipate no change. The revised consensus marks a sharp reversal from December, when more than 85% of economists expected the RBA to remain on hold at 3.60% during the first quarter.The catalyst for the shift was the December-quarter inflation report. The trimmed mean consumer price index — the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, beating expectations for a 0.8% increase. That pushed annual trimmed mean inflation to 3.4%, its highest level in five quarters and clearly above the central bank’s 2–3% target band.Economists argue the inflation data carried decisive weight in the policy debate. With the economy operating close to full employment and capacity utilisation still high, price outcomes have become the clearest guide for policymakers assessing whether settings are sufficiently restrictive. Several analysts stressed that the inflation result tipped the balance in favour of tightening.Even so, the expected February hike is not widely seen as the start of an aggressive tightening cycle. The move would come just six months after the RBA’s last rate cut, underscoring the bank’s sensitivity to incoming data rather than a fixed policy path. Many economists expect the RBA to adopt a “wait-and-see” approach after February, signalling a willingness to act again if required but stopping short of committing to multiple hikes.Australia’s major banks, ANZ, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank and Westpac, all now expect a February hike. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank expect a hold. Looking further ahead, economists are divided on the terminal rate. Of those surveyed, some see rates peaking at 4.10%, others at 3.85%, with a smaller group expecting a return to 3.60% by end-2026. Separate polling suggests inflation is likely to ease back inside the target band later this year, reinforcing expectations that any further tightening beyond February will be limited.--2026 Reserve Bank of Australia dates: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

WSJ (gated) reported Trump and Senate Democrats struck a shutdown-avoidance deal that funds most agencies long-term while giving DHS a two-week stopgap to extend immigration talks.SummaryThe Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump and Senate Democrats say they’ve reached a deal to avert a partial US government shutdown by splitting off Homeland Security funding. The plan would fast-track five full-year appropriations bills and fund DHS with a two-week continuing resolution, extending talks on immigration enforcement. The agreement comes after Democrats balked at a DHS bill amid fallout from the Minneapolis killing of Alex Pretti by federal immigration agents. Even with a deal, timing risk remains: if the House must return to vote, there is still a chance of a short lapse before funding is finalised. The outcome reduces broad shutdown risk near-term, but keeps DHS/ICE policy disputes live into the next deadline window.The Wall Street Journal reported that President Donald Trump and Senate Democrats say they have reached an agreement designed to avert a partial US government shutdown by decoupling Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding from the rest of the federal budget package. Under the proposed framework, the Senate would move quickly on five of six spending bills that have already cleared the House, funding most federal agencies through the remainder of the fiscal year. DHS would be handled separately via a two-week continuing resolution, effectively buying time for negotiations over contentious immigration enforcement provisions and funding for agencies such as ICE and Border Patrol. Trump publicly endorsed the approach, urging lawmakers in both parties to support the package. The political logic is straightforward: it reduces the risk that a dispute focused on immigration policy triggers a wider shutdown across unrelated departments and services. It also narrows the negotiation battlefield to DHS and immigration enforcement, rather than holding the entire budget hostage.The push to split DHS funding gathered momentum after Senate Democrats resisted advancing a DHS bill, with internal party pressure intensifying in the aftermath of the Minneapolis killing of Alex Pretti, a case that has generated national controversy and competing official narratives. Reuters reported that a preliminary CBP review raised questions about earlier claims made by Trump administration officials, while video evidence and reporting have complicated the initial account of events. In practical terms, a two-week DHS stopgap keeps Homeland Security funded while negotiators attempt to reach compromises on enforcement restrictions and oversight demands. However, it also sets up another near-term deadline that can reintroduce brinkmanship if talks stall. The timing of votes matters as well: even if Senate action is swift, the House may need to return to Washington to pass a modified package, creating a risk of a brief funding lapse if deadlines collide with travel and scheduling constraints. For markets, the near-term takeaway is modestly supportive: the deal lowers the probability of broad federal disruption, while keeping political headline risk concentrated around DHS and immigration policy into the next negotiating window. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.