Market Insights Podcast (26/11/2025): In today's episode, TraderNick leads the discussion on the UK autumn budget and the subsequent rally in sterling prices. Otherwise, we discuss the narrative surrounding the Fed's December decision, as well jobs number today. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices are currently maintaining a robust uptrend and trading near two-week highs, around the $4150/oz handle. The precious metal is poised to log its fourth consecutive monthly gain, building on a record-setting surge experienced in October that briefly targeted the $4,400 area.The continuation of the bullish rally could be a sign that the current rally still has deep support. The bullish trend is reinforced by technical indicators that confirm strong underlying momentum, following a selloff that allowed some profit taking.Foundational Drivers: The Federal Reserve Pivot Proxy The current rally and supporting Gold’s valuation is the aggressive market expectation of impending monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Current forecasts indicate an 84% probability of a US interest rate cut in December , with broader market consensus pricing in approximately 90 basis points of easing by the end of 2026. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Market participants are expecting the FED to start cutting rates despite mixed rhetoric. The expectations do keep the US Dollar (USD) under broad pressure and force US Treasury yields to drift lower. Gold is a beneficiary in this environment as declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the metal.These easing expectations are validated by a sequence of disappointing US economic releases, including softer ADP employment numbers, weaker Retail Sales figures, and a notable drop in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading for November. Market participants are continuing a recent trend by actively front-running the central bank’s mandated reaction function.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is strong.Price action looks favorable with the RSI above 50, a sign of the bullish momentum.Price continues to trade some way away from both the 50 and 100-day MA. This could lead to a short-term pullback at some stage.Given the Thanksgiving Holiday in the US tomorrow, markets could see lower levels of liquidity. This could keep Gold prices rangebound as well.Keep a close watch on Ukraine-Russia developments. Any sign that a deal may be edging close could lead to increased selling pressure on Gold and thus push Gold prices lower.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, November 26, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Gold: Key Near-Term Technical LevelsAs mentioned above, bulls may struggle to break beyond the $4200/ounce heading into the weekend as liquidity is expected to be thin. This is not to say it is not a possibility.Key levels to pay attention to include$4,380, All-Time High/Previous Record High (October 17)$4,220, Critical Breakout Resistance Key threshold for acceleration$4042, Key to Uptrend IntegrityFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

GBP/JPY is a very popular pair in Forex trading as it captures both risk-on/risk-off dynamics, geographic trends, and rate differential trends.The Yen and Sterling have been subject to some strong dynamics over the past month.In Japan, markets are still concerned with the reckless government spending which the Japanese Prime Minister tried to defend against.The latest development sees PM Sanae Takaichi and her cabinet approving a ¥21 trillion stimulus package—the largest since the COVID era.This fiscal dovishness from the new Prime Minister, historically a negative for currency strength, has been heavily priced in since her appointment. Paradoxically, this may force the Bank of Japan to turn more hawkish, potentially hiking rates sooner to protect against a run on the JPY – The next decision is expected on December 18th.There could still be an intervention from the BoJ which aims at buying back some Yen against other currency reserves.For the Pound, the initial volatility relative to the recent Budget is turning into a positive trend. Despite not pivoting to full austerity (aiming to cut expenses for a better fiscal balance), the budget is perceived as far from reckless.While higher income taxes might dampen consumption slightly, the overall fiscal stance has put the GBP in a decent position, making it the 3rd best performer of today's session.Technically, the pair is at key point. If the current rally extends beyond the 207.00 level, the price action will point directly to a retest of the July 2024 peak.Let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis and technical levels for GBP/JPY, a pair that should stay active during the Thanksgiving break. Read More:US stocks turn green for the pre-Thanksgiving trading sessionMarkets Today: RBNZ Cut Rates, Gold Hits Two-Week Highs, FTSE 100 Trades Above 200-day MA Ahead of UK BudgetUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookGBP/JPY Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map GBP/JPY Daily Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The pair has evolved in a one-way tight bull channel since November 5, taking prices to overbought RSI levels.Nevertheless, overbought doesn't mean top, particularly as the RSI is still tilting upwards, hence momentum backs the ongoing rebound.One thing to look for on the bigger timeframe is how the market reacts to its entry (or lack thereof) in the 207.00 Resistance:Last week, the action stopped at 206.86 which is the level to keep in mind: Closing above would confirm an entry in the Resistance and targets the 208.120 highs.Below, it could point more to a double-top action and a reversalKeep in mind that the Bank of Japan may intervene during the Thanksgiving break which may also provide a huge move lower. The issue is that the timing for such is unknown.Let's dive into the intraday charts.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map GBP/JPY 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current 4H Candle forms a doji – pointing to a more hesitant price action.A potential trading gameplan could be to look at breakout scenarios:A 4H close above 207.074 should push further into the resistance zone.A push below the 205.526 candle lows hints at further retracement.Levels to watch for GBPJPY trading:Support Levels:4H Candle lows 206.50Post-Election highs 205.33 – Current pivotHigher timeframe Pivot – Current Support 203.00Main key Support 199.00 to 200.00Mid 2025 Support 195.00 to 196.85Resistance Levels:207.00 to 208.00 2024 July highs – Current testSession highs 207.074208.120 July 2024 highs209.50 to 210.50 May 2008 Extremes1H Chart zoom_out_map GBP/JPY 1H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shorter timeframe points at further balance as the buying stalls on overbought 1H RSI.As mentioned, right before, look at whether markets make a push either for the highs or the lows in a breakout scenario.To avoid fakeouts, a trader can also wait for a 1H or 4H Candle close as confirmation.In case of a bigger retracement, keep an eye on the Hourly uptrend to see if it holds, implying a buy signal or breaks, implying a sell signal.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Market ambiance seems to have taken a decidedly better turn as Americans get ready to celebrate Thanksgiving.It is worth a reminder that Markets will be closed tomorrow and will close early on Friday, therefore expect volumes to taper off significantly as the day progresses.European Stocks have rallied for a third consecutive day, providing a much-needed sentiment kicker for most North American opens: The S&P 500 just broke back above 6,800; Dow Jones is holding strong above 47,000 and Nasdaq is doing the same above 25,000 – Key psychological marks for US indexes.This week was essential, arriving just when the narrative seemed to have turned dark for the end-of-year trading amidst valuation fears, post-earnings "sell-the-news" flows (like Nvidia), and a hawkish Fed scare—a fear that has now substantially eased, with a December cut now 80% expected. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (09:57 A.M.) – November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView While the pre-Thanksgiving session is often a muted but positive one, heading into the two-day break, it will be important to watch how the close shapes up.Post-Thanksgiving weeks historically open both ways as traders get ready for the final month of the year and the final, pivotal Fed meetings, so the real test for Stocks will be next week!Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Markets Today: RBNZ Cut Rates, Gold Hits Two-Week Highs, FTSE 100 Trades Above 200-day MA Ahead of UK BudgetUS Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionA global Outlook on US Indices zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook – All gap higher. November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView It's almost as if nothing happened in the Dow the past two weeks.The Strong bullish up-moves from yesterday's open took the index back above its Pivot Zone and key 50 and 200 Moving Averages, providing it a bullish mid-term outlook.With volumes down this week, a weekly close will still be highly anticipated for traders and sentiment:Above the Pivot Zone (47,000 to 47,200), expect continuation.Within the Pivot Zone, the action should be more rangebound/balanced as Markets await for more releasesBelow, the mid-term outlook is more for a further correction.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,459Next Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650Psychological resistance at 48,000Support LevelsHigher timeframe pivot 47,000 to 47,20046,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq has completely reversed its past-Thursday drop, dragged higher by strong tech performance (even without much help from Nvidia).Now facing another strong test at the 25,000 to 25,250 Resistance at a confluence with the 4H MA 200, closing above last Thursday's highs will confirm a break above the past week's descending channel.Watch for imminent momentum which has slowed down as US traders get ready for the Thanksgiving holiday.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsResistance 25,000 to 25,250 immediate test, MA 200 and Thursday highsCurrent ATH 26,283 (CFD)Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Mini-resistance at 25,500 GapSupport Levels24,550 Tuesday lows24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October lows 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart, November 26, 2025 – Source: TradingView As the session unrolls, the action is holding around the 6,800 psychological level and once again, it's as if we never really went lower these past few weeks.Bulls have managed to break above the Broad Bear Channel that took the price action down 5% since mid-November.Still, keep an eye on the 6,800 level which steps right at a resistance zone and a retest of the Higher timeframe upwards channel (broken for now).Above 6,815, there won't be much to stop a retest of the all-time highs.Below 6,800 however, some sellers might try to re-enter the pullback higher.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)6,800 Psychological resistance (+/- 10 points)Mid-term resistance 6,860 to 6,880ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,680 to 6,700 Key Support6,570 to 6,600 support4 H MA 50 at 6,7506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Extend Gains Most Read: US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookThe MSCI All Country World Index continued its recovery for the fourth day in a row, which helped cut its losses from the stock sell-off this month down to only 1.3%. Asian stocks rose significantly by 1.4% following a strong rally on Wall Street.This positive energy seems likely to continue, as futures for both the S&P 500 and European shares suggest further gains are coming. Japan's Nikkei stock index added 1.9%. However, Japanese government bonds (JGBs) fell, causing short-term interest rates (yields) to reach their highest points in 17 years. This happened because investors are worried about the cost of a huge government spending plan and are also considering the possibility that Japan's central bank might raise interest rates soon.Specifically, the rate on the benchmark 10-year JGB rose slightly to 1.805%, while the two-year rate hit 0.975% and the five-year rate reached 1.34% both the highest they have been since June 2008.RBNZ Cuts Rates, Australian Inflation Exceeds Forecasts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its main interest rate (the official cash rate) by a small amount (25 basis points) to 2.25% at its last meeting of the year.This move was widely anticipated and brought borrowing costs down to their lowest level since mid-2022. The RBNZ explained that this decision was necessary because the economy had a lot of room to grow (spare capacity) and price increases (inflation) were slowing down. Although the overall annual inflation rate hit the top of their 1-3% target range in the third quarter, the prices for core items and services that aren't easily traded internationally are easing. This supports the expectation that inflation will return to the 2% target by the middle of 2026.The RBNZ stated that any future rate changes will depend on how the economy and inflation look going forward.Meanwhile, in Australia, the annual inflation rate increased to 3.8% in October 2025, up from 3.6% in September, meaning it remains above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) 2-3% target range.This was the first full monthly inflation report, and it showed that electricity prices jumped (up 37.1%) after government discounts ended, and food prices remained high (3.2%). Monthly inflation, however, was flat after rising 0.5% in September. This report marked Australia's official shift to using a complete monthly inflation report, instead of the quarterly report, as the main way to measure price changes.European Session - European Shares Advance European stock markets saw a small increase on Wednesday. This rise was supported by two main factors: growing anticipation of US interest rate cuts and encouraging signs of progress in peace talks for Ukraine.Investors were also waiting for the UK's budget announcement later in the day. The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, rose by 0.4%, building on the strong gains it made on Tuesday. Major regional indexes were also up, with both Germany's and France's markets gaining 0.5%.London's FTSE 100 was up 0.2% as the UK prepared for the budget speech, where the Finance Minister is expected to announce billions of pounds in tax increases. The positive mood in Europe was linked to global investor optimism, which was boosted by weaker US economic data on Tuesday, increasing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate cut in December.Hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal also helped improve investor confidence after the Ukrainian President indicated he was ready to move forward with a U.S.-supported framework to end the conflict. Despite the positive news on peace, defence stocks still saw gains, with their index rising 0.8%. In individual company news, Germany's athletic wear maker Puma gained 1.9% after its US competitor, Urban Outfitters, reported better-than-expected sales for the third quarter.On the FX front, the Japanese yen was stronger on Wednesday because of hopes that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) might raise interest rates as early as December.The New Zealand dollar jumped after its central bank suggested it was likely finished cutting rates. Similarly, the Australian dollar also increased by 0.57% to 0.6506 after its October inflation report was higher than expected, which makes it unlikely the central bank will cut rates further. The euro moved closer to 1.16, reaching 1.1590, partly helped by signs of progress toward a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.Overall, the U.S. dollar was weaker against other major currencies, falling 0.2% to 99.65.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices increased slightly on Wednesday, recovering after falling to their lowest point in a month during the previous session.However, the gains were limited by ongoing concerns about a predicted oversupply of oil next year and the possibility of a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, which could bring more supply to the market.Specifically, Brent crude futures rose by 28 cents (0.45%) to 62.76 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 26 cents (0.45%) to 58.27 a barrel.The price of gold reached its highest point in nearly two weeks on Wednesday. This increase was driven by recent US economic information, which supported the idea that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.This expectation made the US dollar weaker, which is generally good for gold prices. The price of spot gold rose by 0.7% to $4,156.89/oz, hitting its highest level since November 14th. Similarly, US gold futures for December delivery also increased by 0.4% to $4,154.10/oz.Read More:UK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one with geopolitical events and the UK budget dominating the agenda.Today is a significant day for the UK and its currency, the pound. The UK Finance Minister, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, is scheduled to give her budget speech at 12:30 GMT. It's worth remembering that during last year's budget announcement, bond yields actually dropped while the speech was happening, only to rise later once the official economic forecasts (from the OBR) were released and showed a clearer picture of future inflation. This pattern could repeat itself today.Meanwhile, in the US, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report being released today might be even more important than usual. This report collects informal information and stories about the health of the economy, effectively taking the place of the delayed report on the third quarter's economic growth (GDP).If this report mentions any increasing worries about the job market, it would likely help the US dollar align with expectations for lower short-term interest rates. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index Support961695509500Resistance966196919800FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, November 26. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 25Fed pricing has gone completely bipolar in the past few weeks, progressively decreasing from near 25 bps certainty to a mere 20%, only to whip back to 82% in a matter of days. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Some data showed up and shifted the narrative this morning, but overall, the fundamental picture remains consistent: Employment is still trending lower, with the latest private employment figures showing a contraction (ADP weekly report at -13.5K vs -2.5K last week), and inflation remains too high for the Fed to be fully comfortable—though perhaps not too high to prevent a move (PPI came as expected, the Core actually missed by 0.1%)San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly joined the likes of Williams and Waller in their dovish view, though her impact is limited by the fact that she will only be a voting member in 2027.No matter the rhetoric, the Fed will be squarely focused on the next high-tierdata point before their December 10th decision: the Core PCE release on December 5th.Stock markets, particularly the Dow Jones, absolutely loved the "bad news is good news" data, surging back well above the 47,000 mark and finishing up around 1.40% on the session. Except for Nvidia, which took quite a hit today (though it managed to close well off its lows), the entire stock market ran higher. And, as per usual this year, Gold and other precious metals joined the rally. It seems cuts are really good for everyone, huh! zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (Session Close) – November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:US Dollar takes a hit as Dovish Fed U-turn boosts AUD, EUR, and JPY outlookSilver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Conservative Equities (Dow Jones and European Stocks) loved the weaker Dollar today, which diverged quite a bit from the Tech-sector. And the same could be said for US Bonds and Gold – Assets in the back of the risk-curve were of heavier demand from the daily move.Semiconductors and Cryptos have both struggled a bit today, taking the Nasdaq to a fairly muted performance compared to its peers.But the worst performer is once again Oil, which posted strong resilience in previous session before getting ransacked by the better Eastern-Europe developments.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 25 – Source: OANDA Labs FX Markets woke up today after the weaker US Data.The GBP is among the winners, as it has been rallying from some troughs after the much-anticipated UK Budget got released – Notice the end-session profit-taking. The rebound in the pound might not just be a one way higher.You can learn more on the Budget and its effect on the GBP right here.The JPY is also posting quite a rebound. Keep an eye on this as it a strong reversal there could shape the future FX action.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not over yet for AUD and NZD traders, who will be at the center of volatility throughout the overnight session.AUD traders will have to monitor the Australian CPI numbers, releasing this evening at 20:30 ET. However, the evening will really heat up with the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 ET. A 25 bps cut is expected (bringing rates to 2.25%), but the real mover will be the forward guidance in the Statement and Press Conference—markets are anxious to see if the easing cycle is nearing its end.Tomorrow's session (Wednesday) should also be quite eventful after tonight's central bank action. The overnight session will turn eyes towards Europe, where the focus will be less on data and more on policy rhetoric. ECB President Lagarde is scheduled to speak at 13:00 (ET).The US Session should be even more active, quenching the thirst for data before the Thanksgiving holiday break. The first moves will come from the Durable Goods Orders (Sep) at 9:30 A.M. ET. Simultaneously, the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, released a day in advance (expected at 225K) will provide the latest pulse check on the labor market.Later in the morning, the Chicago PMI follows at 10:45 A.M., and the day rounds out with the Fed's Beige Book at 15:00, offering anecdotal evidence on economic conditions across the districts.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Strongest Major currency of the past month, the Dollar had swept through most of its peers powered by a hawkish repricing, assumed by the Market after Powell's speech at the October 29th FOMC (You can access it right here).The Federal Reserve Chair made many more mentions of their dual mandate to monitor both Employment and Inflation compared to the September meeting which had seen a tilt towards employment (meaning tariffs were posing an issue yet again).The rough numbers and downward revisions to NFP in August and many other labor releases had warranted such a dovish turn from the Fed during the early Summer, but also caught people by surprise when data did not continue to worsen consequently – Explaining by the way the steep rally from 97.50 all the way to above 100.00 in the Dollar Index. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) since end-September 2025 (top panel) with US 2-Year Yield (bottom panel) – Source: TradingView Turning to today, late releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics haven't corroborated with a high inflation and better employment picture; Quite the opposite actually:Despite better Jobless Claims last Thursday, consecutive misses in US Retail Sales (particularly ex. Auto and Gas at 0.1% vs 0.4% exp), PPI (Headline as expected, but a 0.1% miss on the Core) and Private Labor Data (-13.5K vs -2.5K previous) confirmed the more protective tone from Fed's Williams at his speech last Friday.Listen to our podcast: The 'moving target' of Fed rate cuts, US PPI and US retail salesSince the end of last week, the Pricing for a 25 bps cut consequently went from lows of 20% all the way to the current 85%. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 25, 2025 – Source: Kalshi Let's have a look at a few intraday FX Major Pairs (USD/JPY, EUR/USD and AUD/USD) to see how the turn in the pricing for the December 10 meeting led to strong reversals. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook: Failed Breakout and Double-Top hints at Rangebound actionOil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanUK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsUSD/JPY – Is the Squeeze done? zoom_out_map USD/JPY 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView USD/JPY, subject to a 10,000 pip, one-way up-move since beginning October, has just initiated a turn lower since the speech from Fed's Williams.A monetary policy convergence trade (where rates differential between US –at 4% – and Japan –at 0.5%– bearish for the pair had been put on the side after PM Takaichi's appointment.However, the Bank of Japan is showing their teeth after the one-sided move, pointing towards a potential rate hike in December to help the yen.Fears of intervention which could come during Thanksgiving have also calmed the squeeze.Currently at 156.00 after reaching 158.80, the pair is holding tight at an hourly support.An hourly close below the 156.00 handle opens the door for a Major retracement all the way to 153.00.A rebound from here would point to 157.00, a test of the descending trendlineLevels of interest for USD/JPY Trading Resistance levels156.90 to 157.95 Recent top resistance2025 Highs and April 2024 peaks 158.80 to 160.001990 and July 2024 Peak 161.00 to 162.00November highs at 157.895Support levels156.00 to 156.20 Short-timeframe Support153.00 to 154.00 Key high timeframe pivot150.00 Psychological support146.00 August range support2025 142.00 Main daily supportEUR/USD holds its range zoom_out_map EUR/USD 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The range in EUR/USD, mentioned throughout our recent detailed analysis of the pair, is holding extremely well in those current conditions.Since October 27, Fiber has been holding between 1.1470 lows and 1.1650 highs.Confirmed by a flattening MA 200 and with fundamentals not coinciding with major breakouts, the range can be expected to hold ; Directional trends have the tendency to slow down before FOMC meetings– However, always watch for fakeouts and don't forget that everything can happen .Levels of interest for EUR/USD Trading Resistance levels1.1630 to 1.1670 Pivot zone (range Highs)1.1750 mini-resistanceResistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)Sep 2021 Highs – Resistance 1.19 to 1.1950 ZoneWeekly highs 1.1656Support levels1.1470 to 1.15 range support4H MA 200 Mini-support 1.161901.1475 to 1.15 Support Zone1.1350 to 1.14 SupportSession lows 1.14966AUD/USD bounces back at the lows of its yearly range zoom_out_map AUD/USD 8H Chart. November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView It is one of the first time that I noticed such an obvious range!Since August 2025, FX Markets haven't materialized any trends – Pretty logical when seeing the extent of the moves throughout the first half of this year.Nevertheless, AUD/USD had caught quite a wave of weakness after a strong performance against all its major counterparts, with the "Risk-on" currency brought down by a worsening sentiment (The Aussie tends to correlate well with Equity markets).Holding between 0.64 (Support) and 0.66 (Resistance) since August, the latest bounce can offer quite a mean-reversion setup.Still, as always, keep an eye on any session close below support or above resistance, but same as EUR/USD, you can expect the range to hold ahead of the FOMC meeting (as fundamentals have few chances of changing much more).Levels of interest for AUD/USD Trading Resistance levels0.6480 to 0.65 Pivot0.6550 Range mid-Pivot turned Resistance0.6580 to 0.66 Resistance (Range Highs)July Highs Resistance 0.6620 to 0.6650Support levels0.6420 August Lows and Main Range Support (recent bounce)0.6250 May support0.62 Psychological supportLiberation Day lows 0.59140Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (25/11/2025): Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Silver (XAG/USD) has stalled its gigantic rally higher as a more hawkish Fed pricing and lower economic projections have effectively brought a top to the precious industrial metal. After forming a clear double top at its all-time highs of $54.50, Silver retraced lower to just graze below the psychological $50 mark.Still, the metal's resilience to correct lower suggests that the underlying dovish catalysts haven't entirely disappeared. NY Fed President John Williams recently revived hopes for a 25 basis point cut, pushing the odds for the December meeting back up to around 70%. This pricing was further consolidated by a raft of weak data released this morning: PPI came in at 2.7% (matching expectations), while both Retail Sales and the ADP Private Employment report surprised to the downside. Hence, the prospect of gradual rate easing—a fundamental booster for commodities like Silver—keeps underpinning prices even as sellers try to push lower. Marking a recent low at $48.65 but also failing to breach the $52 level, a range is gradually forming.Let's look at it through a multi-timeframe analysis of the metal. Read More:Oil falls below $58 as Ukraine agrees to 19-point Peace PlanGold Price Forecast: Bullion rallies to $4,118 key level as markets increase Fed rate cut betsUK Budget 2025 Preview: Fiscal Drag, Wealth Tax, and Market Impact on GBP & GiltsSilver (XAG/USD) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView After yesterday's strong rebound back above the $50 mark, buyer hesitancy and another failed test of the $52.00 level proves how weak directional attempts are.This is characteristic of a Thanksgiving week, when many traders are absent and leads to lower odds of trending-environment (Who will be there to push prices?).When looking at the past few weeks of action, the up-down action forms typical signs of a range. It also gets confirmed further when looking at the long wicks, and a flattening RSI right around the neutral zone.Let's dive into shorter timeframe to spot more details on how to exploit this range.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to watch for Silver (XAG) trading:Resistance Levels:Range highs Resistance $52.00 to $52.502025 record $55.48$53.50 to $54 current ATH resistance$52.47 past week highsPotential resistance 1 $57.50 to $60 (1.382% from 2022 lows)Support Levels:$48.50 to $49.50 Daily Pivot, Range lowsOctober FOMC bottom $46.00 to $47.00$45.55 October 28 lows$43 to $44 higher timeframe pivot/support$39.50 to $40 higher timeframe support1H Chart zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 1H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current $48.00 to $52.00 range has found root in more troubles fundamentals as time comes: Is the Fed lowering rates enough to fuel another All-time high rally?Are ongoing geopolitical reconciliations enough to lower demand and bring prices down?As traders and participants scratch their heads, an opportunity to trade the range emerges.Sell the $52.00 to $52.50 resistance; Wait for a candle rejecting the level and spot if selling continues.Buy the $48.00 to $49.00 range lows to play the range.Track for daily closes above and below these range levels to see if flows create a diversion from the ongoing consolidationSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil took another pipeline lower as recent headlines reduced supply route concerns for one of its bigger producers.The initially secret discussions for a Ukraine-Russia peace plan, initiated by the US, have taken a much more serious shape.An original Russian-drafted 28-point plan—similar to the one proposed for Gaza—had earlier been publicized but was subject to fierce debate among European leaders, as the guarantees would not play in Ukraine's or the EU's favor, particularly clauses regarding the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory like Crimea and Donetsk as Russian. zoom_out_map A map of Ukraine and Russian-controlled territories – Source: UnderstandingWar.Org, November 22, 2025. A revised 19-point plan has hence emerged in the past day, with ABC News reporting that "the Ukrainians have agreed to a peace deal", though there are still details to be sorted out.The agreement is described by officials as a "living paper," implying that many clauses remain subject to change as negotiations evolve. The rest of the war now hinges on whether Russia accepts the terms.This major geopolitical development has sent Oil back below the $57.50 mark, more than 2.50% lower.Still stuck in descending, choppy trading, Oil presents some interesting technical looks as fundamentals swing again.Let's dive right into the charts for Black Gold. Read More:The Crypto Bloodbath Stalls: Is a Bottom In?Dow Jones (DJIA): Outperforming the US mega-cap technology stocksMarkets Today: Rate Cut Bets Surge, FTSE 100 Eyes Retest of 200-day MA, Geopolitics and US Retail Sales in FocusUS Oil (WTI) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The energy-commodity is still not out of its descending trend when looking at how solid the Daily Channel is.The 50-Day MA acted once again as a major point for sellers to enter. If current momentum continues strong, the next step could be a test of the 2025 lows ($55.285) which also coincides with the lows of the Channel.The Daily RSI also formed a concrete selling sign, as momentum tried to test the neutral level but rejected it lower. Keep an eye on such formations in RSI which can render strong signals.For now, shorter-timeframes may indicate an earlier stop in the selling. Let's take a closer look4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsKey September Resistance $65 to $66May range Resistance $63 to $64$60.90 Past Week highs$58.265 short-timeframe pivot levelMay Range lows support $59.00 to $60.50 (Broken, now Major Pivot)Support LevelsHigher bound of 2025 support $57.00 to $57.30 (testing)Oct 20 lows $56.38$55 to $55.70 low 2025 Support1H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, November 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The shorter timeframe shows a clear evolution within an Hourly Bear Channel, contained within the higher timeframe sequence.Now testing its lows, some hesitant mean-reversion attempts to take place.This comes at multiple confluences with the higher timeframe support coming close, but no signs of reversal are shown.To get an immediate momentum guide, look at the current 1H Candle:Above its highs ($57.60), a reversal higher has high chances of materializing.Holding current levels adds more chance towards a lower break (look at the session lows at $57.25)Some spikes could also take place as the geopolitical developments occur. Therefore watch your risk!One of my theories was also one of a potential sell-the-peace rumours, buy the peace-news. But is still for now a bit farfetched.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Shares Post Modest Gains Most Read: How fast the tides turn – Market wrap for the North American session - November 24Global stock markets grew for the third consecutive day, largely thanks to technology stocks and the increasing chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in December.The overall MSCI All Country World Index increased by 0.1% after more Fed officials voiced support for a rate reduction, making investors more optimistic. Asian stocks rose by 0.4%, with tech giants like TSMC performing well. After being closed for a holiday on Monday, Japan's Nikkei index finished the day up just 0.1%, despite a strong start; it had dropped sharply by 3.5% last week as investors avoided taking risks.Meanwhile, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up nearly 0.6%, and China's CSI300 Index gained 1.1%.European Session - European Shares Subdued in Early Trade European stock markets were relatively quiet on Tuesday as investors held back, waiting for key economic data from the US. There are growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, rose slightly by 0.1%. Major regional markets were mixed: Germany's DAX fell 0.1%, while France's index gained 0.1%. Markets are specifically looking forward to the US reports on producer inflation and retail sales, which will provide fresh information on the health of the US economy.These reports are among the first to be released after the longest-ever US government shutdown caused a lack of data for both investors and the Fed.Within Europe, banks provided the biggest lift to the index, rising 0.4%, and stocks tied to natural resources, such as oil companies and miners, also gained 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Separately, the home improvement retailer Kingfisher was a top performer, jumping 4.3% after raising its profit forecast for the full year.Finally, investors are also watching for developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, after the US and Ukraine discussed a revised plan for peace on Monday, leading to hopes that an end to the war might be near.On the FX front, the US dollar remained stable on Tuesday. This stability is notable because investors are trying to figure out if the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, especially after some officials made comments that suggest they support a cut. Meanwhile, people are keeping a close eye on the Japanese yen, watching for possible government action to influence its value.The US dollar index, which tracks the dollar against other major currencies, was steady at 100.13, keeping the nearly 1% gain it made last week. So far, the rising possibility of an interest rate cut hasn't significantly hurt the dollar's value. The euro was trading at 1.1530 after a small overnight gain, and the British pound was slightly up (0.2%) at 1.3115.Among other currencies, the New Zealand dollar dropped to $0.5595; it has fallen more than 2% this month because a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected on Wednesday. The Australian dollar was slightly down (0.15%) at $0.6453.In the cryptocurrency market, bitcoin continued to struggle, falling 1.4% to $87,519.91. Its value has dropped almost 20% this month alone.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dropped on Tuesday. The main reason was a worry that there will be too much oil supply next year compared to the demand. This concern was greater than the worry about ongoing sanctions on Russian oil shipments, which are still in place because the peace talks for the Ukraine war haven't resolved anything.Specifically, Brent crude oil futures fell by 33 cents (0.5%) to 63.04/barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropped by 28 cents (0.5%) to 58.56.The price of gold went up on Tuesday, reaching its highest level in over a week. This rise happened despite a strong US dollar. Gold's increase was driven by recent comments from officials at the Federal Reserve that were considered "dovish" (meaning they favored lower interest rates), which increased the possibility of the US cutting interest rates in December.The price of spot gold rose by 0.1% to reach $4,141.49 per ounce by 0631 GMT, continuing the 1.8% gain it made on Monday.Read More:The Crypto Bloodbath Stalls: Is a Bottom In?US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session will be quiet one with geopolitical events dominating the agenda.The US has become less strict about its Thursday deadline for Ukraine to agree to a peace deal with Russia. A new 19-point deal will be discussed soon. German Chancellor Merz doesn't think a quick agreement will happen this week, but Russia seems somewhat hopeful.In terms of economic news, US data could cause a market change, but probably not today. Retail sales are expected to be strong, and I think consumer confidence will drop slightly to about 93, which is close to what experts expect. The producer price index (PPI) for September will likely match expectations, rising by 0.3% month-over-month.These economic figures are not expected to change the outlook for interest rates much. Rate expectations are currently being influenced by comments from Federal Reserve officials who favor lower rates. Following Chris Waller, Mary Daly also suggested an interest rate cut in December. Even though she doesn't vote on rates this year, her position adds to the pressure for the Federal Reserve to consider a cut, making the final decision a close call. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 is in a period of consolidation.A change in structure has taken place with a four-hour candle close above the previous swing high setting up the index for a fresh higher high and potential retest of the 200-day MA resting at 9614.A failure to move higher from higher may find support at 9450 before the 9400 handle comes into focus.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, October 20. 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Dow Jones continues to outperform despite the AI-led sell-off, holding smaller losses than the Nasdaq 100 and maintaining relative strength supported by value-oriented sector weightings.Intermarket signals favour the value factor, with a re-steepening US yield curve and a bullish breakout in value ETF versus momentum ETF, reinforcing the case for medium-term DJIA outperformance over tech-heavy indices.The DJIA’s medium-term uptrend remains intact, with price still above its ascending channel support and momentum stabilising; holding 45,650/45,020 keeps the bullish structure intact, with resistances at 48,460 and 49,130/49,220. This is a follow-up analysis and a timely update of our prior report, “Dow Jones (DJIA): A star performer amid the current US AI stocks sell-off”, published on 5 November 2025.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) have staged the expected rally and hit a fresh all-time high of 48,460 on 12 November 2025.Thereafter, it faces an “indiscriminating sell-off” in the following week of 17 November 2025, triggered by a loop of negative cascading price actions on the Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut, Nvidia, and other AI-related technology stocks over “bubble bursting” fears.Despite the synchronized sell-off seen in the past week among the major US stock indices, Dow Jones (DJIA)’s month-to-date performance as of 24 November 2025 fared better than the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100, with a loss of -2.3% versus -3.8% (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Month-to-day performances of global benchmark stock indices as of 24 Nov 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) Also, intermarket and relative strength analyses of relevant factors (smart beta) exchange-traded funds continue to point to potential outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the mega-cap technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 in the medium-term horizon (multi-week)Let’s unravel.Value factor outperformance and re-steepening of the US Treasury yield zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index, momentum, value factors, US Treasury yield curve major trends as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Dow Jones Industrial Average tends to be viewed as a more “value-oriented” barometer benchmark US stock index due to its higher weightage of value-related sectors, such as Financials, over the Nasdaq 100; the Financials sector has a weightage of 27% in the DJIA.One of the key drivers that allows the DJIA to stage a rally to its recent all-time high on 12 November 2025 is the re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) from 0.48% on 29 October 2025 to 0.53% on 7 November 2025, which, in turn, also reinforced the bullish breakout of the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (see Fig. 2).At the same time, the ratio chart of the S&P 500 Momentum ETF (36% weightage in Information Technology)/S&P 500 ETF staged a bearish breakdown on 3 November 2025.The current re-steepening of the US Treasury yield curve, coupled with a major bullish breakout seen on the ratio chart of S&P 500 Enhanced Value ETF (35% weightage in Financials)/S&P 500 ETF (which indicates the potential outperformance of the value factor in the US stock market) is likely to support a medium-term outperformance of the Dow Jones (DJIA) over the Nasdaq 100.The Dow Jones (DJIA) continues to oscillate within a medium-term ascending channel zoom_out_map Fig. 3: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index medium-term trend as of 25 Nov 2025 (Source: TradingView) Despite the recent price action breakdown of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, the current price level of 46,392 at the time of writing is still holding above its medium-term ascending channel support in place since the 23 May 2025 low of 41,156 (see Fig. 3).In addition, the daily RSI momentum indicator has just managed to bounce off a key horizontal support at the 35 level, indicating that downside momentum has started to wane.Maintain a bullish bias over the medium-term horizon with key medium-term pivotal support zone at 45,650/45,020. A clearance above the 47,100 intermediate resistance is likely to kickstart a new potential bullish implusive up move sequence to retest the 48,460 current all-time high before the next medium-term resistance comes in at 49,130/49,220 (also a Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break below 45,020 invalidates the recovery scenario for an extension of the medium-term correction towards the 43,935 long-term pivotal support (also the 200-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for November 24Connecting market movements to specific headlines is often a daunting task—a reality that keeps the "buy the rumor, sell the news" adage relevant.The most recent casualty of this phenomenon was the Nvidia earnings report. Despite the AI giant delivering quarterly results that blew past even the loftiest expectations, the reaction heavily faked out investors: an initial surge was quickly erased, leading to a 180-degree turn lower on Thursday that dragged broader sentiment down with it.As the dust settles, markets seem to be really focusing on one thing: The FOMC path. To maintain these lofty valuations into 2026, rate cuts are not just desired; they are essential. The high costs associated with the leveraged AI boom could remain prohibitive if the Federal Reserve stays hawkish, making the policy outlook a difficult call. zoom_out_map Evolution of the December 10 FOMC Meeting Odds. Chart from our Morning Market Analysis – Source: Kalshi Market pricing for a December rate cut has been a rollercoaster, plummeting from near-certainty to a scant 20% probability in a matter of weeks following Chair Powell's cautious speech and amplified by hawkish echoes from other Fed members. However, NY Fed President John Williams—a highly influential voice—stepped in to ease those concerns. His comments, signaling that policy remains restrictive enough to warrant easing, breathed life back into the narrative, pushing the odds of a December cut back up to around 70%.In Geopolitics, US President Trump also expressed quite some positive words after his call with the China's Xi Jinping which provided a further boost to an already better looking Ukraine war outlook.With sentiment now buoyed by another Magnificent 7 rebound—led by a 2.6% surge in the Nasdaq to start the week—we could be seeing a reignition of the "debasement trade" flows, with Cryptos and Gold attempting to rally alongside equities. It feels almost like early 2025 again. Nevertheless, anxiety may still loom as many traders head for the exits for the Thanksgiving week, so expect volumes and volatility to stay contained as the holiday approaches.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Today's picture was very similar to the classic 2025 trend, with only Oil changing the chart.Gold, Nasdaq and Bitcoin are the three leaders of the session, loving the latest Trump news.Better supply prospects in the event of a Russia-Ukraine peace-deal was the main factor behind today's rebound.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, November 24 – Source: OANDA Labs It's a typical Thanksgiving Weekly open for Currency Markets.Rangebound Markets throughout the eight Major currencies, with only the Yen separating from its peers, with the positive Sentiment dragging the currency down.This also comes as mean reversion with the end-week fall in USD/JPY – This FX pair will once again the one to track for the entire week, with a potential Intervention still very possible.(still, expect the week to be relatively calm)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow's session should be quite eventful after today's rebound.The overnight session will turn the eyes towards the German Final GDP for Q3, expected at 0%, and should help to see where the overall Euro-economy is heading. Almost no cuts are priced in for the ECB, but any major downward surprise in Europe's largest economy could change the situation. This will be followed by a couple of ECB speeches from ECB's Escrivá (5:00 A.M. ET) and Sleijpen (5:30 A.M. ET).The US Session should be even more active however with a slate of US releases that will quench the thirst for data after a drought, even if these releases will be past news (September data).The first will be the ADP weekly Private labor data (8:15 A.M. ET), which surprised markets at its first release. It will be interesting to see how Markets react to it going forward.For the rest, Expect Retail Sales and PPI data (8:30 A.M. ET) which could be major movers, as the official statistics agencies finally release the September numbers on wholesale inflation and consumer spending.US Housing data will follow suit at 10:00 A.M. ET as investors look to confirm a potential rebound in both the Consumer Confidence and the rate-sensitive Pending Home Sales after weeks of weakening.The rest of the day could be calm as many traders are out for the Thanksgiving week, a traditionally slow but green week in Markets.The evening will however be the most important:Inflation data from Australia will heat up the evening session at 20:30 ET before the RBNZ Rate decision follows suit at 22:00 ET. A 25 bps cut is expected but not fully priced in, so expect some surprise and volatility for the Kiwi dollar around the rate and policy review. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The relentless crypto bloodbath appears to have finally stalled, and signs suggest the market may have already posted a definitive bottom.Bearish acceleration had driven prices to stark troughs, with Bitcoin grazing the $80,000 level and altcoins suffering even steeper declines. XRP plunged below $2.00, Ethereum tested levels near $2,800, and Solana dropped to trade near $125.Read More: Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 record However, as key technical areas and Fibonacci retracements triggered interest from both opportunistic investors and algorithms, dip-buying has brought the Crypto Market higher to start the week. Bitcoin is now testing the $88,000 level, while Ethereum is climbing back towards the $3,000 psychological level. zoom_out_map ETF Inflows and Outflows in 2025 – Source: Coinglass Crucially, institutional flows are signaling a shift. Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are seeing their first renewed inflows after a painful 6-week streak of net outflows that reflected general deleveraging across digital assets.The Total Market Cap, which posted lows around $2.74T just last Friday, is also staging a recovery. Buoyed by a broadly more positive mood in markets—fueled by a dovish repricing for the Fed's December meeting, strong beats on Nvidia earnings, and potential trade reopening talks with China—the total valuation is once again breaking back above the pivotal $3T mark.This level will be extremely important to hold as it equates to the 2021 Bull Market peak. zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap – Bouncing at the lows of its Channel. November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More:Markets rebound for Thanksgiving week as Fed comments and Tech giants boost sentimentUS Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryThe Picture is Green after many Red days zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market (14:30 ET), November 24, 2025 – Source: Finviz Bitcoin and Ethereum 2-timeframe AnalysisBitcoin Weekly Chart zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) Weekly Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView A ruthless 37% descent for the pioneer Crypto has taken a break as multiple confluences of Technical Supports are coming through. The 61.8% retracement of the entire move from the 2023 ($15,500!) lows has brought some interest, as this Fibonacci level tends to generate traction among Traders and Investors.This also comes at an imperfect touch of the 2023 trendline, which presents one of the most important technical support on the long-run. Breaking this line will let the $75,000 Liberation Day as an emergency lifeline but after that, there isn't much before the $60,000 Monthly Support.Bitcoin Intraday (8H) Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView A Bullish divergence on the 8H Timeframe also helped the shorter-timeframe buyers to step in quite aggressively.A precedingly downside-broken Bear Channel pointed to extreme fear which wasn't followed by momentum accumulation, which tends to create Bullish divergences on the RSI. These are strong setups for mean-reversion, however not much says for how long things will rebound.Therefore, keep an eye on the Channel lows for Short-term support (if it breaks, more bearish).On the other hand, holding the Channel after a fakeout could lead to a $102,000 higher bound test.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned PivotCurrent Weekly Lows $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:$90,000 to 93,000 major support turned Pivot$98,000 to $100,000 Main Support, now Pivot (MA 50 at $100,000)$102,000 Bear Channel HighsResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The $2,700 Level mentioned in our very recent ETH analysis was used as a trampoline for Buyers.The next test will be to break and hold above $3,000, which also corresponds with the mid-lane of the Channel. Above this, breakout odds greatly increase.You can access detailed technicals and fundamentals for the Second largest Crypto right here:Ethereum (ETH) reaches Key Support, Has the Crypto Bear Market begun?Ethereum Intraday (8H) Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (recent rebound)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highs Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The past week was subject to more rounds of volatility, taking major US Indexes to retest and break below October lows. Hawkish Fed fears and the cancellation of key October reports like the CPI—due to the recently ended 43-day government shutdown—brought further fears into an already fragile bull momentum.However, an end-of-week rebound brought back some life into the market. This shift occurred after NY Fed President John Williams mentioned that a rate cut "in the near term" is still appropriate, effectively signaling that a December cut is not impossible. His comments helped bring the odds of a 25 basis point cut at the December 10 FOMC meeting from a low of around 20-35% back up to approximately 75%. zoom_out_map Evolution of the Fed's Rate Cut odds, November 24, 2025 – Source: Kalshi This improved sentiment is combined with better geopolitical prospects in Ukraine, where an updated peace framework is well into negotiations. The positive tone continued with news of a phone call between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this morning to discuss trade and bilateral ties.In the corporate sector, Tesla bounced over 6%, while Google (Alphabet) is up another 5.6%, with the latter buoyed by the recent launch of its revolutionary Gemini 3 model. Both tech giants are leading a number of other Megacaps higher. zoom_out_map US Equity Heatmap (11:21 A.M.) – November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Thanksgiving week has historically been positive for markets, often outperforming annual trends. The rest will be to see if fears keep subsiding in the wait for more news, including tomorrow's release of the delayed September PPI and Retail Sales figures.Let's dive right into the intraday outlook for all three US Major indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Outlook: Pivotal Week for the US Dollar as Acceptance Above 100.00 Remains KeyMarkets Weekly Outlook - UK Budget in Focus as Global Equities Eye RecoveryTime of Higher Silver Volatility: Markets Surprised by Fed Policy ShiftA global Outlook on US Indices zoom_out_map US Main Indices Daily Outlook – Fakeout below October lows. November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView Having corrected much less than its peers, the rebound in the Dow is more timid compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.Currently facing the highs of its Momentum Pivot zone, small selling from the session highs is slowing the progress for the index.Pushing above should lead to a decisive move higher, particularly if the RSI keeps pushing above its neutral zone.Important Data points coming up throughout the week are also to be considered! Keep a close eye on the 47,000 LevelDow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time high 48,45946,300 to 46,600 Momentum Pivot (immediate test and session highs)Next Resistance 47,000 to 47,200 (8H MA 50 at 47,050)Resistance zone 47,500 - 47,650 and 4H MA 50Psychological resistance at 48,000Support Levels46,000 +/- 300pts Immediate SupportTuesday Lows 45,92545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)44,400 to 44,500Nasdaq 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-heavy index is enjoying quite a rebound, led from its Tech and Communication sectors' leaders, which brought Nasdaq right back into its more-balanced descending channel.Suffering the most out of the three main US indexes (down beyond 8% from its all-time highs to the 23,840 lows), the ongoing mean-reversion move is also the most rapid, bringing RSI momentum back above neutral.Now comfortably above its Momentum Pivot (24,500 +/- 125 points), buyers shouldn't have many concerns until the 25,000 Resistance that also meets the highs of the Channel.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsCurrent ATH 26,283 (CFD)Candle highs 24,925All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Intermediate resistance and 4H MA 50 25,700 to 25,850Mini-resistance at 25,500 GapCurrent Pivot 25,050 to 25,200 (immediate resistance and Moving Averages)Support Levels24,510 Candle lows24,500 Main support (testing)October lows 23,997Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 8H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 8H Chart, November 24, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 has also posted a spectacular rally since its Friday morning bottom, and now faces a strong test that actually could serve as indication for this week's sentiment.Above 6,700, the mood could be proven to stay more positive as sellers will can get more dormant.A daily close confirmation above the Broad Bear Channel (6,725) would also be needed.Below however could create a more balanced-rangebound structure after months of volatility.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)6,700 Key psychological levelResistance 6,720 to 6,7506,800 Psychological resistanceHigher bound of bear Channel 6,730Support Levels6,570 to 6,600 Key support 8H MA 200 at 6,6696,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review The week draws to a close on a positive note after a significant selloff in risk assets as US rate cut bets continued to decline from the Federal Reserve's December meeting.US jobs data for September was finally released but came with a caveat, the October and November data will not be released until after the Fed's December meeting. This is one of the main contributing factors to the decline in rate cut probabilities which dropped to a low of around 25%.However, Friday saw a significant change once more with markets once again favoring a rate cut at the December meeting and this may continue to change as the Fed meeting in December draws closer. zoom_out_map Source: CME FedWatch Tool Risk assets faced a difficult week with the three major US indices trading 5.5-8.5% below their recent peaks at one point. The concern for markets came as a surprise given the positive earnings report by chip giant NVIDIA as valuation concerns linger.Investors are beginning to doubt the rising stock prices of leading AI companies. They are worried that these companies are announcing big plans that they don't actually have the money or the factory capacity to handle right now. If these worries continue, it will be very hard for the stock market to go up significantly. Interesting times ahead indeed especially after the positive end to the week.All major US stock indexes rose on Friday as investors became more confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. This optimism grew after John Williams, a key central bank official, stated that rates could be lowered soon without causing inflation to rise again. Despite this positive end to the week, the main market indexes are still expected to finish with a total loss of about 2% for the week.Technology stocks also stabilized after suffering a sharp drop the previous day. Most large companies saw their values go up, led by Google’s parent company, Alphabet, which rose by 3%. Meanwhile, shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia remained flat; this follows a very unstable day on Thursday where the stock price swung wildly after the company released its quarterly financial results.How has the US Dollar and FX Performed? The US dollar weakened against the Japanese yen on Friday after Japanese officials warned they might take action to stop the yen from losing too much value. The Finance Minister stated that the government is ready to step in if currency prices swing too wildly, which alerted traders that Japan might start buying yen soon to support it.Despite this specific drop against the yen, the dollar had a very strong week overall. It reached its highest level since May against other major currencies and is on track for its best weekly performance in six weeks.Meanwhile, other major currencies and assets struggled. The Euro dropped slightly and is set to lose roughly 1% for the week. The British Pound also fell, trading around $1.31, as investors wait for the UK government's new budget plan while facing signs of a weak economy.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin had a difficult day, falling nearly 5% to around $82,900, its lowest price in seven months.In the week ahead,keep an eye on the Japanese Yen as the case for FX intervention continues to grow.The Week Ahead The week ahead will not be as busy for the US given that it is Thanksgiving, which means data will be packed in the first three days of the week.There are still some high impact data releases from Asia and of course the highly anticipated UK budget, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces an unenviable task.Asia Pacific MarketsChina is set to release its industrial profit figures on Thursday, which will complete the economic data for the month. Profits have been improving recently, showing a 3.2% increase for the year so far, driven largely by very strong growth of over 20% in both August and September. Part of this jump is because last year's numbers were low, and while that statistical advantage will fade in the fourth quarter, profits for October are still expected to look healthy.The strongest industries this year have been those that sell goods abroad, specifically trains, ships, aerospace equipment, and electronics and this positive trend is likely to continue.In Japan, inflation in Tokyo is expected to rise to 2.7% in November, fueled by higher worker wages and a weaker Yen, which pushes prices up. Factory output remains steady following a trade agreement with the US.Although the economy shrank in the third quarter, recent signs of recovery support the Bank of Japan's plan to return to standard economic policies. While fewer investors now expect interest rates to rise in December, based on innuendo and comments, it appears at least three central bank members support the move. I still lean toward a rate hike next month, though there is a growing chance it could be delayed until January.Thanksgiving Week in the US as the UK Budget Comes Into FocusBecause of Thanksgiving, economic reports are coming out early this week, but they may be unreliable due to the government shutdown. Key jobs and inflation data have been delayed until after the Federal Reserve's December meeting.Since officials were already planning to keep interest rates steady, the lack of new data means they likely won't cut rates unless the economy faces a sudden crisis. However, we still predict interest rates will eventually drop by 0.75% by the middle of 2026.The main event to watch in the week ahead is the "Beige Book," a general survey of the economy.On Wednesday, the UK Chancellor faces a £30 billion gap in the budget. Markets are watching to see if she raises taxes to fix this, as her decision will affect future interest rates and government borrowing. Regardless of what happens, the country's deficit is expected to shrink next year. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - US Dollar Index This week's Chart of the week is the US Dollar Index (DXY)From a technical perspective, the DXY has broken above the 100.00 psychological level.This is the third time since the end of July that this has happened and each time thus far a selloff has taken place. Will we see similar price action again or will the DXY finally gain acceptance above this key psychological level?This will be the major test in the days ahead.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart - November 21, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Fed rate cut expectations surge: Probability of a December 2025 rate cut jumped from 39% to nearly 70% in one day (CME FedWatch Tool)Silver market reacts: Increased volatility as traders respond to dovish Fed commentaryBond yields drop: 2Y and 10Y Treasury yields fall, steepening the curve and boosting appetite for risk assets, including precious metals Recent days have brought significant changes in investor expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which have notably impacted the futures market, bond yields, and precious metals – especially silver. The rising probability of a rate cut in December has triggered increased price volatility in the silver market, potentially signaling more dynamic movements in the weeks ahead. zoom_out_map 30 Day Federal Funds Future (December 2025), source: TradingView On Friday, the price of 30-day federal funds futures for December rose from 96.175 to 96.215, accompanied by a record trading volume of 255.63 thousand contracts – more than three times the 20-day average. The surge in trading activity reflects a sharp shift in market sentiment: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 bp rate cut in December jumped to 69.7%, up from 39.07% just a day earlier. zoom_out_map Probability of interest rate cuts in December 2025 based on 30 Day Federal Funds Futures, source: CME FedWatch Tool Labor Market and Inflation Data – A Mixed PictureLabor market data for September, released late due to the previous government shutdown, also contributed to the changing sentiment. Employment rose by 119,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 55,000. However, markets also noted an increase in the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 4.4%.Due to the disrupted publication schedule, October and November data will be released together – with a one-week delay. This means that the upcoming FOMC decision will be based on a limited view of labor market conditions. While the September numbers were better than expected, markets had assumed the Fed would hold rates steady, especially since CPI inflation remains elevated at 3% year-over-year – well above the Fed’s 2% target. zoom_out_map US Annual CPI, source: TradingEconomics Dovish Signals from the Federal ReserveInvestor sentiment was further influenced by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. John Williams, President of the New York Fed, suggested that a rate cut could be implemented “without jeopardizing the inflation target,” which the market interpreted as a clear sign of a shift toward easing.Meanwhile, Susan Collins (Boston Fed) said the current level of interest rates is “appropriate,” and Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed) stated she favors “pausing rate changes for a while.” Despite some caution, overall market sentiment is now tilting in favor of a rate cut in December.Bond Market Reaction and Impact on Risk AssetsThe bond market reacted swiftly. The yield on 2-year U.S. Treasuries fell by 4.8 basis points to 3.51%, while the 10-year yield dropped by 3.7 basis points to 4.067%. As a result, the yield curve steepened, with the 2Y–10Y spread rising to 55.5 basis points. zoom_out_map US 2-Year vs. 10-Year Bond Yield Daily Chart, source: TradingView Growing expectations for lower rates are benefiting not only bonds but also risk assets – including homebuilders and precious metals. For silver, which is highly sensitive to interest rate and inflation expectations, this environment creates heightened volatility.Silver as a Barometer of Monetary PolicySilver lost nearly 4% during today's session, falling to around $48.63 per ounce. However, silver contracts began to rise during premarket trading in the US. An hour before the US market closed, they rose above $50.35, reacting to the support zone around $49.40 and reducing the daily price decline to 0.63%. zoom_out_map 1 Hour and Daily chart of Silver, source: TradingView Falling interest rates typically support higher prices for precious metals by lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. However, with uncertainty surrounding the Fed's next moves and analysts divided on the outlook, silver market volatility may continue to rise. Any new signal – whether from labor data, inflation figures, or Fed commentary – could trigger sharp price movements.For investors, this means one thing: the precious metals market, and silver in particular, is once again acting as a barometer for monetary policy expectations. The volatility we're now seeing may persist through the end of 2025 – and its scale will largely depend on how the Fed responds to upcoming macroeconomic data. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (21/11/2025): In today’s episode, join TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest market developments, including fresh dovish commentary from Fed officials, a continued slide in bitcoin price, and the so-called ‘AI bubble’. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It’s a red wave throughout the crypto world, a move that often tends to anticipate panic in broader financial markets. High leverage among investors is currently amplifying these profit-taking moves, creating a cascading effect that is sending altcoins into a punishing bearish loop. Bitcoin is trading around $83,000 and Solana below the $125 mark!Has the Crypto Bear Market started already?! zoom_out_map Daily overview of the Crypto Market, November 21, 2025 – Source: Finviz While Ethereum is holding up relatively better than many of its riskier altcoin peers, it is still subject to quite an aggressive repricing and is now fast approaching critical technical zones around $2,700. Showing some immediate buying reactions, heavy efforts will be required for Bulls to retake the momentum.Will it hold or break?Let's dive into a multi-timeframe Ethereum (ETH) analysis. Read More:Altcoins make new lows, Total Market Cap falls below the 2021 recordWhy this Weekly Close Matters as Fear takes over US StocksEUR/USD technical analysis: Spotting Mean Reversion in the 2,000 pip RangeA parenthesis on the Crypto Total Market Cap zoom_out_map Crypto Total Market Cap Weekly Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Crypto total Market Cap is taking another nose dive lower. The prospects for Crypto aren't good for now, but on the long-run, it will be necessary to see if the Digital Asset Market holds above the $2 Trillion mark.Ethereum (ETH) Multi-Timeframe Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Weekly Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is enduring the rough conditions of a weekly Tight Bear Channel to a 43% correction.Now coming close to the $2,500 to $2,700 Main Support, this key level will act as a test.A rebound here is largely possible, as the market tests the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire move higher; A strong level of interest for Traders and Algorithms.Below $2,500 however, the outlook is for a more downwards action.As mentioned in our altcoin analysis form yesterday, for long-term investments, creating regular buying programs (DCA-style) around here could make sense after such a strong correction.Nevertheless, the price action is not one of immediate rebound, so keep your risk in check.Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (testing)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot$3,500 (+/- $50) Resistance and Descending Channel highs$3,800 September lows$4,000 to Dec 2024 top Higher timeframe pivot zone$4,950 Current new All-time highs4H Chart zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) 4H Chart, November 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer to the intraday chart, some buying is ongoing at the lows of the Channel, 61.8% Fibonacci and the Key Support Area.A rebound would be mostly welcome for investors but to fully break out of the downward movement, traders will need a break above the $3,000 to $3,200 Pivot. Keep a close eye on the weekly close.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Global oil markets are showing a rapidly growing supply surplus.“Oil on water” volumes have surged, signaling difficulties in placing cargoes.Sanctioned oil flows increasingly contribute to the buildup in floating storage.New sanctions on Russia may intensify oversupply pressures in the coming weeks. A clear supply-side pressure is emerging in the global oil market, a trend that agencies such as the EIA and IEA have been signaling since the start of the year but which had not been fully visible in official statistics. The main reason was China accumulating crude oil outside the OECD reporting system. This situation, however, is now beginning to shift. Data from recent months show a marked increase in the volume of oil in maritime transport, an early indicator of an emerging imbalance between supply and demand.Although OECD inventories remain below their five-year average, the “oil on water” indicator is rising rapidly. According to the latest IEA report, the volume of crude held on tankers rose by 80 million barrels in September and by an additional 92 million barrels in preliminary October data. Vortexa figures confirm the scale of this increase.This level of accumulation at sea typically indicates that supply is starting to exceed current demand, and producers are finding it increasingly difficult to place their crude on end-markets. Oil “circulating” in transit is often the first sign of an impending surplus in the physical market. zoom_out_map Chart of a CFD contract based on the price of Brent crude oil, daily data, source: Tradingview The Role of Sanctioned Oil Flows A significant element of this dynamic is the contribution of sanctioned oil, which—according to the IEA—accounted for roughly one-third of the increase in the past two months. Crude subject to trade restrictions more frequently faces delivery delays, payment issues, and limited access to insurance and port infrastructure. As a result, tankers spend longer periods at sea, boosting total oil-on-water volumes.Upcoming Russian Sanctions Likely to Intensify the Trend Supply pressures may increase further with the 21 November sanctions taking effect on the two largest Russian oil companies, responsible for half of Russia’s total production and exports. If these sanctions restrict their ability to sell crude, the global market may face an even larger wave of “stranded” cargoes, reinforcing the upward trend in oil volumes held in transport. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.