Prior was 219K (revised to 218K)4 week moving average of initial jobless claims 209.75K versus 209.5K last weekContinuing claims 1818K vs 1810K expectedPrior week 1794K (revised to 1787K)This is a good reading and while the Iran war was going on there have been a series of upbeat readings on the economy. As this report was released, the Philly Fed also handily beat expectations. Were it not for this war and tariffs, we would be talking about a very strong US economy and an AI-led boom.The US dollar ticked slightly higher on this but trading is generally subdued today with EUR/USD down 17 pips on the day to 1.1781. S&P 500 futures are up 10 points.Initial claims drop back to 207K after last week's pop to 218K, reinforcing the view that the labour market remains tight without showing signs of meaningful deterioration. The 4-week average barely budged, which is the number to watch through seasonal noise around Easter and spring break timing. The unadjusted data actually rose 6.0% week-over-week, but seasonal factors had penciled in an 11.8% jump, so the adjusted print benefits from that offset.Continuing claims tick up 31K to 1.818M, but the four-week average fell to its lowest level in nearly two years — a quiet signal that those losing jobs are still finding their way back into work reasonably quickly. Year-over-year, continuing claims are running below the comparable 2025 week (1.943M).On the state level, New Jersey (+5,603), Pennsylvania (+2,513) and Oregon (+2,182) drove the largest unadjusted increases in the prior week's data, with Pennsylvania citing layoffs across transportation/warehousing, hospitality and healthcare. Oregon pointed to the education sector. Offsetting declines came from New York (-1,592) and Texas (-1,299). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +18.1Details:New orders 33.0 vs 8.6 priorShipments 34.0 vs 22.2 priorUnfilled orders -10.2 vs -4.7 priorDelivery times 1.7 vs 18.9 priorInventories -1.9 vs 1.4 priorPrices paid 59.3 vs 44.7 priorPrices received 33.5 vs 21.2 priorNumber of employees -5.1 vs 0.8 priorAverage employee workweek 7.7 vs 2.8 priorSix-months from now indicators:6 month index 40.8 vs 40.0 priorCapex index 6-month forward 35.2 vs 25.8 priorNew orders 45.7 vs 49.6 priorShipments 40.8 vs 53.6 priorUnfilled orders -4.1 vs 15.3 priorDelivery times 2.7 vs -4.7 priorInventories -0.7 vs 16.8 priorPrices paid 50.2 vs 53.7 priorPrices received 50.2 vs 38.4 priorNumber of employees 35.9 vs 40.4 priorAverage employee workweek 30.3 vs 24.1 priorThe survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all moved higher this month. However, the employment index fell and turned negative, suggesting overall declines in employment. Both price indexes rose for the second consecutive month. The firms continue to expect overall growth over the next six months, although most future indicators moved down.What is the Philly Fed Index?The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, also known as the Philly Fed Index, is one of the earliest monthly indicators of manufacturing sector health in the United States. Published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, it surveys manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District, covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware. Readings above zero indicate expanding activity, while readings below zero signal contraction. The survey is closely watched by economists and market participants because it often serves as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing Index released later each month. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Every meeting is a live meeting; a lot can happen until April 30 ECB policy meetingMarket pricing of two rate hikes this year is reasonableEnergy price developments are not far from baseline but moves volatile, uncertainHave not seen large second-round inflation impacts materialiseFirms may start adjusting prices quicker than in the past given recent experience with inflationAn ECB sources report yesterday played down the chances of an April rate hike and the market has responded by pushing the implied odds down to 21% from as high as 39% recently. For June though, a hike is 67% priced in and there almost exactly 50 bps of hikes priced in by December.ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks has signaled a lean toward further policy tightening, characterizing market expectations for two additional rate hikes this year as "reasonable." While noting that significant second-round effects—where wages and prices spiral upward—have yet to fully materialize, he warned that corporate behavior has shifted. Firms, seasoned by recent inflationary spikes, may now adjust prices more rapidly than historical norms, potentially keeping inflation stickier for longer.Kazaks emphasized a state of high alert, noting that "every meeting is a live meeting" and cautioning that significant data shifts could occur before the April 30 policy gathering. Although energy prices currently align with the ECB’s baseline, he labeled the sector as volatile and uncertain. Overall, his tone suggests that while the worst-case scenarios for inflation have been avoided so far, the ECB remains firmly in a restrictive stance to preemptively counter quickening price adjustments. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Markets continue to keep the faith awaiting more positive US-Iran developmentsAfter 5 months, the Nasdaq finally hits a new record high amid US-Iran deal optimismNetflix earnings is tonight. Are you holding?Senior Iranian Official: Fundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesECB policymaker Muller: A rate move at the April meeting cannot be ruled outECB's Villeroy: April hike premature, no rush to actAll members viewed risks to inflation outlook as tilted to the upside, ECB account showsSwiss franc appreciation has led to tighter monetary conditions - SNB minutesUK February monthly GDP +0.5% vs +0.1% m/m expectedEurozone March final CPI +2.6% vs +2.5% y/y prelimItaly March final CPI +1.7% vs +1.7% y/y prelimMarkets:WTI crude (May) down 0.2% to $91.11, WTI crude (June) up 0.2% to $88.30, Brent crude up 0.7% to $95.80S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, European indices up 0.3% to 0.6% across the boardCAD leads, NZD lags on the dayUS 10-year yields flat at 4.275%Gold up 0.7% to $4,822, Silver up 0.5% to $79.43Bitcoin down 0.1% to $74,761It was another tepid session for the most part as markets are still waiting for more concrete positive developments from the US-Iran conflict.Pakistan is trying to mediate the situation with its army chief arriving in Tehran to try and push for a second round of talks. The US and Iran are still not able to see eye to eye on a nuclear agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. So, that is keeping things on edge even as markets are taking the more optimistic angle for now.There's still an air of calm for the most part with oil prices consolidating at the lower end for this week. Brent crude is up just 0.7% to $95.80 as traders remain cautious still. Meanwhile, WTI crude is keeping just above the $91 mark for the May contract whereas the June contract is seeing prices at around $88.30 for now. The latter has more open interest at this stage and is arguably the more reliable indicator of "front-month" pricing.In the equities space, European stocks are following up on the record high closes in Wall Street with modest gains today. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures are also seen up 0.1% as investors stay calm.In FX, the dollar is keeping more mixed across the board with EUR/USD down 0.2% to 1.1780 while USD/JPY is flat near 159.00 on the day. The latter did see a decent rebound after hitting a low of 158.27 in Asia trading, following some verbal jawboning by Japan finance minister Katayama.The changes among dollar pairs are mostly negligible though with USD/CAD down just 0.1% to 1.3727 and AUD/USD flat on the day at 0.7170 currently.Elsewhere, precious metals are keeping slight gains with gold up 0.7% to $4,822 while silver is up 0.5% to $79.43 on the day.It's still all on US-Iran developments and will continue to be the case until the weekend surely. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The energy supply shock has had a large impact on near-term inflation compensation in the euro areaLonger-term inflation compensation had remained broadly stableDespite strong increases in spot prices for oil and gas, it was argued that energy markets could still be seen as rather sanguine about the situationThe strong backwardation of futures prices seemed to suggest that a normalisation of global oil and gas supply within the next few months remained a realistic prospectHowever, even if there was a rapid resolution of the conflict, it could still take several months for supply through the Strait of Hormuz to be fully restoredOverall, the war was creates significant uncertainty and constitutes a negative supply shock, pushing up inflation and dampening economic activity in the coming monthsMembers assessed that the risks to the growth outlook were tilted to the downside, especially in the near-termMembers assessed that the risks to the inflation outlook were tilted to the upside, especially in the near-termWith respect to the communication of the scenarios, members agreed that the baseline, adverse and severe scenarios should all be publishedIt was agreed that ECB staff would regularly update the scenario analysis with new informationThe implications for medium-term inflation were very hard to gauge at this stage, partly because of fundamental uncertainty over the evolution of the war and highly volatile energy marketsBut all members viewed the risks surrounding the inflation outlook as tilted to the upside relative to the baseline staff projectionsIt was highlighted that the risk of second-round effects was state-contingentOn monetary policy, the option value of waiting was high on this occasion and it was therefore appropriate to leave policy rates unchangedMeeting-by-meeting and data-dependent approach still allows for sufficient flexibility to react at short notice if necessaryFull accountThere are not real surprises to what has been said as ECB policymakers are making some comparisons to the current situation to that back in 2021-22 from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.They are valuing optionality more at this stage, which is also evident by recent remarks. That as they might prefer to wait until June before acting on monetary policy, considering that the US-Iran conflict is still presenting much uncertainty. However, the situation remains rather fluid in the coming weeks.The key question once the dust settles though is once again going to be, is this all just another "transitory" episode? We all know how the first one went. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nasdaq surged into a new all-time high amid US-Iran deal optimism. The US-Iran war has been pushing the market lower on negative growth expectations and as those expectations now get repriced on the positive side, the stock market has room to run. The playbook is very similar to April 2025. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a selloff, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the downside should remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might give the Nasdaq another boost to push into new highs although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk given the extreme positioning.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see the Nasdaq surged into a new record high after an incredible rally since the start of April. We can expect the sellers to step in if the price falls back below the 26,400 level to position for a drop into the 25,500 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely increase the bullish bets here to keep pushing into new highs, although a pullback would offer a better risk to reward setup.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a couple of trendlines that could act as support for dip-buyers. In fact, if we get a pullback from the all-time highs, we can expect the buyers to lean on the first trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to extend the pullback into the next trendline where we should find again the dip-buyers.NASDAQ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have yet another minor trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It has been that kind of the week in European trading for the most part. The action is rather minimal as traders continue to wait on US-Iran headlines, especially with much resting on the next round of talks. US president Trump offered up much optimism at the start of the week and that helped to goose risk sentiment higher, in turn weighing on the dollar. However, that narrative is getting a little weary amid a lack of real progress yet to be seen.For now, Pakistan is working to mediate the situation further and getting Iran back to the negotiating table. While there are some positive murmurs that the US and Iran are able to agree on most things, the two most important things are the ones that they still cannot come to terms with. The first being the US wanting Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions and the second is for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.As such, that is keeping broader markets on edge as we continue to wait on further headlines and developments on where this is all going. And more importantly, if the market optimism from the start of the week will be vindicated.The dollar is keeping steadier today with EUR/USD once again backing off from the 1.1800 mark. The pair is down 0.2% to 1.1775 currently.Meanwhile, USD/JPY has more or less made the round trip to sit back a little higher by 0.1% to 159.10 after having been dumped lower to as low as 158.26 following some verbal jawboning by Tokyo officials. In case you missed it earlier:Japan's finance minister Katayama said to intensify communication with BessentJapan’s Katayama says closely watching FX as oil volatility hits yenBesides that, the changes are relatively light among other dollar pairs with USD/CAD flat at 1.3735 and AUD/USD also flat on the day at 0.7167 currently.The broader risk mood is also steadier but not really following up on the Wall Street rally from yesterday. S&P 500 futures are flat at the moment while Nasdaq futures are marginally up by just 0.1%. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.9%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Netflix earnings analysis: a simple risk check many stock investors overlookNFLX stock went up a staggeting 44% in the last 36 trading days. That's quite a fast and big move. If you were a bit greedy when others were fearful AND were following investingLive.com's original items, then you may have bought the dip apx 2 months ago. We also dished out the trade idea on the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel.Netflix may be up to $116.50 (expected move for earnings is 8.2%) but might also get to $98.85. Of course, there are a lot more options than just these 2 scenarios but that range is important in terms of what the options market is pricing in. If NFLX wants to go up, an interesting reference point (also for profit takers) is the November high of Some on you may be holding Netflix stocks as it is reporting tonight AMC (after market close). Regardless, for many market participants, the earnings season may begin with the banks, but the real emotional and narrative shift often starts with Netflix. Netflix earnings tend to attract attention far beyond streaming. Growth investors watch it. Momentum traders watch it. Younger stock investors often watch it as a signal for how the market may react to big-name, high-expectation companies.That is why this article is not about giving a Netflix earnings prediction in the narrow sense of saying the stock must go up or down next. It is about one educational angle that deserves more attention: checking how far the stock has already drifted before earnings, and what that can mean for risk.This is one of the simplest risk checks investors can make, yet many overlook it.Why Netflix earnings matter beyond the headlineWhen investors think about earnings, they often focus on the report itself. They look at subscriber trends, revenue, margins, guidance, advertising progress, content spending, and management commentary. All of that matters.But there is another question that matters just as much:How much has the stock already moved before the earnings report even arrives?That matters because the stock market does not only react to results. It reacts to expectations. If a stock has already rallied strongly into earnings, then part of the optimism may already be priced in. In that kind of setup, even good results can sometimes lead to profit-taking, volatility, or a short-term pullback.For stock investors, especially younger investors who are still learning how market expectations work, this is an important lesson. A great company and a stretched stock setup are not always the same thing.Netflix stock before earnings: why pre-earnings drift mattersOne useful concept here is pre-earnings drift. That simply means how much the stock has moved since the previous earnings report.In Netflix’s current case, the stock has risen strongly since the last report. That is a meaningful move by its own standards and puts it in a hotter setup going into earnings.Why does that matter?Because when a stock enters earnings after a strong run, the market may become less forgiving. Investors who already have gains may be quicker to take some profits. New buyers may hesitate at higher prices. And if the company delivers good results but not exceptional ones, that can still trigger disappointment.This does not mean Netflix must fall. It means investors should at least recognize that the setup into earnings is not neutral. It is more loaded with expectations.Netflix earnings prediction vs. Netflix earnings analysisThis distinction matters.A lot of content around Netflix earnings is framed as a prediction. Will Netflix beat? Will the stock jump? Will the stock crash? Those questions get clicks, but they can oversimplify what real investors should be watching.A better educational approach is Netflix earnings analysis.Analysis asks better questions:What has the stock already priced in?How stretched is the move into earnings?Has this type of setup led to volatility in past quarters?Is the stock entering earnings near the top of its recent range?Does the longer-term trend still leave room for upside, even if the short-term setup looks hot?That kind of thinking is more useful than a simple up-or-down call.What younger stock investors should learn from thisMany newer investors make the mistake of treating earnings like a one-variable event. They assume the company either reports good numbers or bad numbers, and the stock should react in a simple way.But the stock market is more nuanced than that.A company can report strong numbers and still see the stock fall.A company can report mixed numbers and still see the stock rise.Sometimes the key issue is not the report itself, but whether expectations had become too high or too low going into it.That is why it helps to study the move before earnings, not just the report on earnings day.For younger stock investors, this can become a strong habit:Before every major earnings report, ask not only what the company may report, but also what the market may have already assumed.That question alone can improve risk awareness.Why a strong run into earnings can change the risk profileWhen a stock rises a lot ahead of earnings, three things can happen.First, the good news may already be partly priced in.Second, holders with strong profits may decide to reduce exposure after the report, even if they still like the company long term.Third, the stock can become more vulnerable to a sell-the-news reaction, where investors use a positive event as a reason to lock in gains rather than add new exposure.This does not automatically create a bearish setup. It simply changes the balance of risk.That is the core educational point here.The bullish long-term thesis may remain intact. The business may still be strong. The wider trend may still be constructive. But the short-term event path can still become trickier when expectations are elevated.Netflix near the top of its range: why that matters into earningsAnother useful check is range position.If a stock is entering earnings near the top of its recent range, that can amplify the risk of volatility. Investors who bought lower may be sitting on profits. Traders who chase strength near the highs may have less margin for error. Expectations often become more demanding when price is already elevated.For Netflix, this is an important part of the discussion.Again, this is not a call to buy, sell, trim, or hold. It is an educational reminder that price location matters. A stock entering earnings near the lower end of its range presents one kind of setup. A stock entering earnings near the top of its range presents another.Those are not identical risk conditions.Longer time frame analysis still mattersThis is where balance is important.A stock may look moderately overheated on the short-term pre-earnings setup, but still have room to run in a bigger-picture trend. A one-quarter drift does not automatically invalidate a multi-year growth story.That is why investors should avoid becoming too mechanical.Short-term overheating can matter for event risk.Long-term structure can matter for the broader investment thesis.Both can be true at the same time.For example, Netflix may be entering earnings after a strong pre-report move, which raises the possibility of shakeout risk or profit-taking. But if an investor looks back over a much wider timeframe, they may still conclude that the stock has strategic upside over the coming years.That is a more mature way to think about risk.The real lesson from Netflix earnings analysisThe real lesson is not that Netflix is destined to disappoint. The lesson is that investors should learn to distinguish between a strong company and a hot setup.Those are not always the same thing.This is especially relevant during earnings season, when many well-known stocks enter reports after powerful rallies. The market often punishes stocks not because the business suddenly became weak, but because the setup had become crowded, expectations had become elevated, or traders were already positioned too aggressively.That is why Netflix earnings analysis should include more than forecasts and headlines. It should also include a simple risk check:How much has the stock already moved into earnings, and what kind of expectations might now be embedded in that price?Final thoughts on Netflix earnings and investor educationIf you own Netflix stock, this article is not telling you to trim your position, reduce risk, or do nothing. It is not a directive. It is an educational framework.The purpose is to encourage investors to pause and examine a factor that often gets ignored in earnings season: pre-earnings drift and the possibility that a stock has come into the event a bit overheated.Netflix is a strong example because it often sits near the center of market attention, and because many investors treat its report as a broader signal for growth stocks.So as Netflix earnings approach, one of the smartest things investors can do is not just ask what the company may report, but also ask what the stock has already done before the report.That one habit can help investors better understand expectations, event risk, and the difference between long-term conviction and short-term positioning.One example I learned in the past 10+ years is to consider taking partial profit, for example 10% or 20% before earnings. But I am not saying to do that now, that will be up to you. My point was to get you to stop and think.And for stock investors, that is a valuable lesson to learn early. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Pakistani army chief trip to Iran helped reduce differences in some areasAfter the trip, there are greater hopes for extending the ceasefire and holding a second round of talksFundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesThe fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolvedFollowing a high-level visit to Tehran by Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, a senior Iranian official indicated that the mediation has successfully narrowed the gap in several key areas. The trip has bolstered hopes for both an extension of the current fragile ceasefire and the convening of a second round of formal talks, potentially to be held again in Islamabad.Despite the progress, fundamental disagreements continue to stall a broader breakthrough, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. While the mediation facilitated better communication, the core dispute over the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains a significant hurdle. The US has maintained a firm stance on the removal or dilution of this material, whereas Tehran continues to defend its sovereign right to maintain its nuclear infrastructure.Furthermore, the duration of nuclear restrictions, a cornerstone of any long-term settlement, remains unresolved. Negotiators are reportedly wrestling with the timeline for a "freeze" on enrichment, with significant disparities between the decades-long restrictions sought by the US and the much shorter duration proposed by Iran. While Pakistan's involvement has helped maintain a diplomatic channel, the resolution of these high-stakes nuclear issues continues to be the primary obstacle to a lasting peace agreement. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Focus on April hike is prematureThe ECB would have no hesitation to act if and when necessaryThere's no rush to act at the momentThere's no predetermined rate pathThe ECB will need critical mass of data before actingOur vigilance is first and foremost on the risk of persistent inflationUnderlying inflation is still close to targetECB's Villeroy reiterated that focusing on a potential interest rate hike in April is premature as the bank maintains a cautious and data-dependent stance. While Villeroy made it clear that the ECB would have no hesitation to act if and when necessary to maintain price stability, he reiterated that there is no rush to act at the current moment.The governor noted that the ECB will need a critical mass of data before making any decisive policy shifts. Villeroy highlighted that the bank’s vigilance is first and foremost focused on the risk of persistent inflation, which remains the primary concern for policymakers. Despite recent global economic volatility and energy price fluctuations, he pointed out that underlying inflation is still close to the bank's target.Villeroy’s comments suggest that while the central bank is prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures become entrenched, it prefers a patient wait-and-see approach.The market is currently pricing in just 20% probability of an April hike but that increases to 70% for June. In total, the market expects the ECB to deliver two rate hikes by year-end. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.5%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y prelimPrior +1.5%The jump in Italy's headline inflation is not as profound as elsewhere in the region. However, it still reflects the same characteristics with energy price inflation spiking higher. Energy price inflation was down by 6.6% year-on-year in February but now reflect a 2.3% decline only instead.Besides that, the inflationary momentum is also supported by the acceleration in the prices of unprocessed food (+4.4% from +3.7%).As for core annual inflation, that is seen slowing in March to 1.9% - down from 2.4% in February. That comes as services inflation sees a marked slowdown to 2.8%, down from 3.6% previously.It's only one month's worth of reading for now and with surging energy prices, expect that to have more of an impact on headline and core prices in the region in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a short-term rally in the greenback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the upside could remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might see the dollar extending the losses although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk.The market is now pricing in 10 bps of easing by year-end and that might increase on a peace deal. I think the market might get disappointed further down the road as the boost to economic activity amid a resilient labour market and rate cut expectations will likely keep inflation above the 2% target and the Fed on the sidelines. INR:The Indian rupee stabilised recently as the risk-on sentiment amid the US-Iran deal optimism gave the currency a reprieve. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations as everything hinges on their outcome.In terms of macro, the RBI held interest rates steady at 5.25% and downgraded growth forecasts due to the US-Iran war at the last policy meeting. The central bank expects inflation to increase in the short-term and growth to slow down. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs, but for now the Rupee could remain supported and extend the relief rally in case the US-Iran war ends.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR fell below the upper bound of the channel and started to consolidate. The sellers are stepping in around the top trendline to extend the drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the top trendline to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers continue to step in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation between the minor upward trendline and the resistance zone around the 94.00 handle. There’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for bounces around the trendline and wait for a break above the resistance, while the sellers will continue to step in around the resistance and wait for a break below the trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Since the December meeting, financial market situation has been characterised by elevated volatilityMiddle East conflict has resulted in surge in energy prices, which led to a global rise in inflation expectationsWith the appreciation of the Swiss franc since December, monetary conditions are tighterHowever, monetary policy remains expansionaryThe board discussed the various factors responsible for the movements in the Swiss franc exchange rateOne factor is the Swiss franc's role as a safe havenThe discussion also addressed the latest developments in energy pricesUncertainty about the future course of oil prices remains highThe board also discussed the conditional inflation forecast, which assumes that the policy rate remains at 0%In the short-term, it is higher than the December forecast due to the rise in energy pricesIn the medium-term, the appreciation of the Swiss franc reduces inflationary pressure, countering possible second-round effects of the rise in energy pricesTherefore, the inflation forecast over the medium-term is very close to that of the previous quarterDespite the escalation in the Middle East, the scenario for global economic developments has not changed fundamentallyIn light of the outlooks presented with regards to inflation and the economy, monetary conditions remain appropriateMonetary policy can currently still be considered expansionaryHowever, the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market should remain high in order to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in SwitzerlandFull minutesThe key takeaway here is that the SNB is in stasis in now having to deal with the indirect repercussions of the US-Iran conflict. To be more specific, the issue of taming a much stronger Swiss franc currency.The mention of that being a counterweight to a second-round impact of inflation pressures is a valid argument. However, the main worry is that the currency's strength will remain sticky and prove to be more detrimental when viewed from a more structural outlook.With the central bank already wanting to avoid unconventional monetary policy such as negative interest rates any time soon, this is a welcome distraction but it won't change the path that the Swiss economy is put on in the bigger picture. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a short-term rally in the greenback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the upside could remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might see the dollar extending the losses although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk.The market is now pricing in 10 bps of easing by year-end and that might increase on a peace deal. I think the market might get disappointed further down the road as the boost to economic activity amid a resilient labour market and rate cut expectations will likely keep inflation above the 2% target and the Fed on the sidelines. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, despite the growing expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target.Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike.For now, the BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady and let things settle after the conclusion of the war. What the BoJ could do at the April meeting is to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if they think they have the right conditions in place and that could give the JPY a short-term boost.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is still consolidating above the 158.00 support zone. The recent consolidation might have formed a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the support. If the price falls back to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 level next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected the downward trendline near the 160.00 handle and dropped into the 158.25 level today before bouncing. The sellers stepped in around the minor downward trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into the 158.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the trendline to pile in for a rally into the next trendline.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a key swing level around 159.10. If we get a break above the trendline, the swing level is where we can expect the sellers to step back in to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin price prediction: Maybe something like this (watch $80k area on bitcoin futures)Bitcoin Price Analysis on the Above 4h Chart: The Path to $80,000The current technical setup suggests Bitcoin is entering a "price discovery" phase within its established ascending corridor. While the trend remains bullish, the $80,000 level represents more than just a round number—it is a critical psychological and structural resistance point.1. The Ascending Channel DynamicsAs seen in the chart, Bitcoin has been bouncing between a series of higher lows (starting near $62,590) and higher highs.The Support: The lower trendline has acted as a safety net, most recently holding firm around the $65,000–$68,000 zone.The Mid-Line: The dashed median line in the yellow channel serves as the "equilibrium." Bitcoin is currently trading above this line, which signals strong momentum.2. Why $80,000 is the "X" FactorThe target marked "X" on the futures chart aligns with the upper resistance of the multi-month channel. Reaching this level would require a breakout from the current local consolidation at $75,000–$76,000.The Bull Case: A clean break above $76,320 (the previous local peak) would likely trigger a "short squeeze," as traders who bet against the rally are forced to buy back their positions, potentially catapulting the price toward $80,000.The Institutional Play: With Bitcoin Futures trading at a slight premium, institutional sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite recent geopolitical volatility.3. "Illustrative, Not a Forecast"The disclaimer in the chart is vital. Technical patterns are roadmaps, not guarantees. The channel is the more "reliable" element, the arrow with the path is illustrative. Why do I say "reliable"? Because if you are new to technical analysis, this art and science is not a crystal ball, and it is not guaranteed. Most of you al already know that. A pattern that plays itself out in 70% is amazing in terms of win rate. Watch the pullback on bitcoin: The zig-zag arrow leading to the $80k target suggests that the path won't be a straight line. Investors should look for a "retest" of the $73,000 area to confirm it has flipped from resistance to support before the final leg up.Volume is key: For the "80k prediction" to manifest, we need to see an increase in buying volume to pierce the top of the yellow channel.Summary for crypto traders: Bitcoin is currently "holding the line" at $75,000. If it maintains this level, the structural "magnet" is the $80,000 resistance. However, a failure to hold the channel's mid-line could see a revisit to the $69,800 support before another attempt at the highs.The Bottom Line: Keep your eyes on the futures. The $80,000 mark is the definitive "battleground" for the next phase of this bull market.Key Takeaways for Today's Bitcoin Prediction at investingLive.comPrediction Score: +2.8 (Mildly Bullish) Bitcoin futures have reclaimed the monthly POC near $74,500 The market shows a bullish repair from $71K lows, not a full breakout yet $76,300 (VAH) remains the key resistance for bullish continuation A successful acceptance above that zone could open the path toward $80,000 The rising monthly VWAP near $71,300 continues to act as structural supportBitcoin futures are stabilizing after early-April weakness - but the real test is still aheadBitcoin futures are starting to look constructive again, and from my perspective, this is not just a random bounce. It is a structured recovery that traders should pay attention to.Since the start of April, Bitcoin initially slipped from around $68,700 to approximately $65,900, shaking out weaker hands early in the month. But what followed is far more important than the drop itself.The market reclaimed the monthly VWAP near $71,300, pushed back into the value area, and has now re-established itself above the Point of Control near $74,500. That shift tells us that price is no longer trading at a discount. Instead, it is now operating in a more balanced-to-constructive zone.The chart included in this analysis highlights this evolution clearly. It shows how Bitcoin moved from lower value back into the upper half of the monthly range, with the key levels and value structure acting as a roadmap for price behavior. Important note: The chart is for illustrative purposes only. It shows a potential path within a rising channel, not a guaranteed trajectory. Markets rarely move in straight lines.The bigger story: from bearish pressure to bullish repairWhat stands out most in this structure is the rejection of lower value.Bitcoin futures tested the $71,300 area (monthly value area low) and quickly reversed. That is not something to ignore. When markets reject lower prices and move higher quickly, it often signals that sellers failed to gain control.From there, Bitcoin climbed steadily: into the $72K–$73K zone then through the $74K area and eventually challenged $76,000+This type of move is what traders call a value repair. The market is essentially saying: “we went too low, and now we are recalibrating higher.”Even more important, the market managed to reclaim the $74,500 POC, which is the level where the most volume has traded this month. Holding above that level is typically a sign of improving structure.Why this is still not a full breakout for the Crypto King (yet)Now here is where the nuance comes in.Bitcoin already attempted a breakout above $76,300, reaching roughly $76,800. But that move did not hold. Price rotated back lower, showing that buyers were not yet strong enough to maintain control above that upper boundary.This matters.Because of that failed breakout, the $76,000–$76,300 zone becomes a key decision area. Traders now know that sellers previously stepped in there. Until Bitcoin proves it can hold above it, that level remains a barrier.So while the structure is bullish, it is still best described as:Bullish repair with overhead congestion - not full bullish controlThe $80K discussion: realistic target or premature optimism?I have been discussing Bitcoin actively on social media over the past weeks, and one thing stood out clearly - a large number of participants were aggressively bearish, many even shorting into this recovery.My response was simple: be careful, and protect your capital.Those who have been following investingLive.com know that we have maintained a constructive-to-bullish view on Bitcoin for several weeks, even when sentiment was leaning the other way.Now, does that mean Bitcoin goes straight to $80,000 from here? No.Markets do not move in straight lines, and no one has a crystal ball.However, from a technical perspective, the upper boundary of the current structure and channel points toward the $80K region as a potential target zone, not a guaranteed outcome.For that scenario to become more realistic, Bitcoin needs to:break and hold above $76,300 build acceptance above that level and avoid falling back into the middle of the range If that happens, the path toward higher levels, including $78K–$80K, becomes much more credible.Educational insight: why VWAP and value areas matterFor newer traders and investors, it is worth understanding why these levels matter.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) shows where the average price is based on volume. When price is above a rising VWAP, it often reflects stronger demand. Value Area (VAL to VAH) represents where most trading activity has occurred. POC (Point of Control) is the price where the most volume has traded. When Bitcoin moves: from below value → into value → above value, it often reflects improving sentiment and participation. That is exactly what we are seeing now.Technical scenario for Bitcoin: what to watch nextBullish scenario (continuation toward $80K zone)If Bitcoin futures: hold above $74,500 and break above $76,300then the market could shift into a stronger bullish phase, opening the path toward $78K–$80K over time.Neutral scenario for Bitcoin futures (range continuation)If price continues rotating between $74,500 and $76,300, the market may remain in consolidation before the next major move.Bearish scenario Bitcoin futures (failed repair)If Bitcoin falls back below $74,500 and fails to hold that area, the current recovery weakens. A deeper move toward $71,300 would then come back into focus.Bottom line for Today's Bitcoin Analysis at investingLive.comBitcoin futures are in a better position than they were earlier this month. The market has repaired from lower levels and reclaimed key value areas.But this is not a confirmed breakout yet.Still, BTC futures have repaired meaningfully from lower value and are back in a constructive position above the 1-month composite POC (Point of control), but the market still needs to prove it can accept above the April's value area high VAH before we call this a stronger bullish takeover, and that is where the last stubborn short sellers get margin called.The $76,300 level is the gate. Above it, the bullish case strengthens significantly. Below it, the market remains in a transitional phase.The discussion around $80,000 is valid as a potential target, but only if the market earns it through acceptance and continuation - not speculation.This analysis is for educational purposes only. Markets are uncertain, and outcomes are never guaranteed. Always do your own research and consider multiple perspectives.For additional views, scenarios, and ongoing updates, follow more analysis on investingLive.com, where we break down markets using structured, data-driven approaches designed to support both traders and long-term investors.Oh, and it sure helps to have Nasdaq futures at a new all time high today, isn't it, bulls? What may come next? Hop over to https://t.me/investingLiveStocks and stay tuned at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the only highlight was the UK GDP report. The data showed a record fourth straight month of increase in services output. And the good news is that the growth was more widespread with 12 of the 14 subsectors showing positive increases in activity. Nonetheless, the market reaction was rather muted since the data precedes the US-Iran war.We will also get the final Eurozone CPI for March, but that's not going to change anything for the ECB at the moment as the central bank awaits more data before deciding whether a rate hike is needed.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 213K vs 219K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1810K vs 1794K prior. The US jobs data has been showing a resilient and even improving labour market. This is not a concern for now, on the contrary, it's good news for growth.But if we see a stronger improvement with upside risks to wage growth, then even if oil prices ease from the current elevated levels, the Fed might eventually consider a rate hike given that it's been missing the 2% target since 2021.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - ECB's Kazaks (neutral - voter)12:35 GMT/08:35 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Schnabel (neutral - voter)14:35 GMT/10:35 ET - Fed's Miran (dove - voter)15:15 GMT/11:15 ET - ECB's Rehn (neutral - voter)15:40 GMT/11:40 ET - BoE's Taylor (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - SNB's Tschudin (neutral - voter)16:45 GMT/12:45 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)18:30 GMT/14:30 ET - RBA's Hunter (neutral - voter)18:30 GMT/14:30 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)19:00 GMT/15:00 ET - BoE's Taylor (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The revised call comes as we are also starting to see ECB policymakers preach more patience rather than taking a more proactive step come later this month. Goldman Sachs had previously forecast the ECB to raise key interest rates in April and June but have now pushed back that timeline by just a little bit.The firm now expects the central bank to deliver on those rate hikes in June and September instead. On the call, they note that:"We expect energy prices to remain persistently high through 2026. A significant passthrough into inflation is likely in the coming months and the ECB's communication has remained largely hawkish on the path ahead."As mentioned earlier, traders are just pricing in ~20% odds of a rate hike for the April meeting for now. But come the June meeting, those odds jump up by quite a margin to ~81% at the moment. For this year, traders are pricing in ~56 bps of rate hikes by the ECB currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%GDP +1.0% vs +0.6% y/y expectedPrior +0.8%; revised to +0.7%Services +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%Industrial output +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.1%Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%; revised to +0.2%Construction output +1.0% vs 0.0% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%; revised to +0.5%The main boost to the UK economy in February came amid a beat on estimates from the services sector output. That contributed to 0.42% (unrounded) in terms of monthly GDP growth. In the three months to February, UK GDP is also estimated to have grown by 0.5% after the 0.3% reading in the three months to January.The more positive showing by the services sector now sees it record a fourth straight month of increase in output. And the good news is that the growth is more widespread with 12 of the 14 subsectors showing positive increases in activity.The details show that the largest positive contribution to services sector output came from administrative and support service activities (up 2.0%). An increase of 2.5% in employment activities was the largest positive contributor to the subsector after haven fallen by 6.6% in January.All in all, it's a positive showing by the UK economy right before the US-Iran conflict started. But with the war set to leave its mark, this is very much lagging data and not one that will have any material impact to the outlook currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.As things stand, markets are continuing to feel more optimistic about the US-Iran situation. And with lower oil prices (at least on paper), that is helping to spread some relief across other asset classes. In particular, US equities are driving up with tech shares continuing to rebound strongly in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted closed at fresh record highs in trading yesterday.In FX, that is leading to a weaker dollar and traders sense a better outlook on things to come. But whether or not that optimism is misplaced, is a topic for another conversation. Considering the overall risk mood for now though, the dollar is on the backfoot and that will look to hold in the session ahead barring any major headline surprises.USD/JPY remains one that is of interest with Tokyo officials stepping up their verbal intervention in the past day. That so as to try and put down traders just in case the market sentiment turns on any fallout from US-Iran tensions. The pair is keeping at 158.80 on the day now, down 0.1% and keeping little changed.Amid a lack of meaningful impact from the expiries, it's all on headline risks once again. For now, all eyes will be on whether Pakistan can convince Iran to come back to the negotiating table and if there will be more talks in the coming days. Besides that, we'll have to see if the ceasefire will also be extended. The current agreement is that it will hold until 22 April before lapsing.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.