Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 24 Today marked a much calmer session after Yesterday's wild swings, as the situation hasn't changed much since the repricing of a potentially closer end to the US-Iran War.Trump welcomed Markets with a positive surprise early Monday morning, announcing that the US had already begun discussing a deal with the remaining Iranian diplomats. The news sparked a wave of optimism among Investors. Still, despite its strength, the move did not extend further.Doubts remain as a gigantic US Marine convoy is approaching the Middle East and should reach its destination towards the end of the week. Are Markets going to see boots on the ground, or will a fair deal first materialize?The Israeli side expressed its discontent with the 15-point plan drafted by President Trump, as it would fall short of more hopeful concessions from the Islamic regime. The IRGC stated that they would want to maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz and their Ballistic Missiles program. Looking at the damage done from those all across the Middle East, this certainly will be an area of debate (and would not reassure Iran's neighbors).Oil prices across the globe did not hold their previous session's lows, which helped the US dollar bounce higher, now forming a range above 99.00 (DXY) and containing risk sentiment. Cryptos actually rejected their previous relative strength, with BTC back below $70,000 ($69,000 is the real key level to watch).Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, as headlines don't help much in understanding the ongoing situation – except for fundamentally changing news. It could be more informative to search for breakout spots and execute them when decisive flows come in. Read More:Wall Street uncertain amid US-Iran (potential) talks – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookIs the war taking a new turn? – WTI Technical analysisThe Metals space is as confused as traders are – Silver (XAG/USD) & Gold (XAU/USD) intraday outlookStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 24, 2026 The initial wave of rallying that was seen after the strong US Manufacturing PMIs quickly got overshadowed by significant hits in both Microsoft and Google as the session went by.Still, Producer Manufacturing and Utilities held the Dow Jones right above unchanged while other Indexes struggled a bit more, particularly the Nasdaq.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today mostly saw some easing of the previous sessions' gains, with Oil rallying an extra 3.70% and sagging the ambience.Black Gold remains the product to watch to navigate these confusing Markets, but overall, expect consolidations across asset classes as Markets await for a clear outcome of the US-Iran diplomatic attempts.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX saw a much more contained action in today's calmer session, with the US Dollar forming a range and bouncing from its lows.99.68 on the Dollar Index is a significant level to watch: extending from there would mark a more volatile range in Major currencies, while rejecting the level puts should contain volatility further.However, expect a day full of surprises tomorrow between headlines and a few major events (particularly for the GBP which outperformed a lot in recent sessions.)A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tomorrow reserves many surprises, particularly for GBP traders who will welcome the release of their entire Inflation set.AUD traders should also remain cautious with the Australian CPI releasing this evening (18:40!)Those trading the Euro will listen closely to the Lagarde speech at 5:00 A.M. (ET), particularly as it may introduce future hikes.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil tumbled in the previous session as negotiations could be back on the tableNevertheless, realities of war indicate that the conflict isn't looking to ease like this, which could prevent positive sentiment.Exploring an in-depth Technical Analysis of the commodity In War, there are words and realities, propaganda and clearly defined facts – and the frontier between both is rarely so transparent.President Trump changed the Market trajectory after saying US-Iran negotiations could resume, a report initially denied by Iran but later confirmed as Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelled to Pakistan, where talks would reportedly occur.The fact that his diplomatic flight took place with US and Israeli approval proves that the US President wasn't just blowing steam – particularly given Al Arabiya reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the newly appointed Ayatollah, would also be open to talks.Nevertheless, the cloud remains over how deep and effective these talks would be regarding an official dropping of Iranian Ballistic Missiles and nuclear program, and, more importantly for immediate markets, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.A ceasefire deal is currently priced at around 44% for the end of April – to me, people are a bit pessimistic about the potential for the War to end sooner rather than later. US-Iran Ceasefire – Source: Polymarket. March 24, 2026 The reality, however, gets a bit different, with Gas infrastructure attacks, Saudi Arabia leaning to join the war and changing its stance, and the fleet of 4,500 Marines arriving in the Middle East towards the end of the week.The latter is the most concerning fact for Markets, leading to swift comparisons to Afghanistan and Iraq, which also hints at a much longer war.It will depend, of course, on how negotiations result: Will it result in free passage in the Strait of Hormuz? Will the Iranian population gain more power and freedom after the 5-week initial Wartime Period? Will attacks on both sides actually cease and lead to longer-term peace?All of these questions will have to find clear answers in order for Markets to get rid of the uncertainty cloud looming over investors since the beginning of March.As the situation should become clearer as this week continues, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI (US) Oil to spot where potential action could take place and where to look if they fail. Read More:Markets Today: Oil surges as Iran denial sours market sentiment, Japan inflation near 4-year lows. FTSE eyes 10000 psychological levelUSD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA), TACO trade may not work, watch the 46,710 resistanceUS Oil Multi-Timeframe AnalysisWTI Daily Chart WTI Oil Daily Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView With the intense volatility seen in the commodity since the beginning of the conflict, the daily chart can seen quite unclear.But traders need to look at what is standing out:Yesterday's drop tested the 20-Day Moving Average ($86.00) which remains the indicator dictating momentum – breaching it to the downside would imply further easing in conditions. Above, the action remains relatively bullish.Also, yesterday's move lower actually brought the action back right around the War Spike, implying that the action is at least much more balanced than it was in the past week.As the morning session continues, Bulls are attempting a rebound, hence, the levels to watch for momentum clearly remains the $93.00 to $95 zone (bullish above, neutral/bearish below).WTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels WTI Oil 4H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 4H RSI is at least not pointing to a further rally from where things stand:Forming a top-looking shape, bull exhaustion at the Key Pivot area could forge at least a new range below $93. WTI Technical Levels:Resistance Levels$92.70 Intraday ResistanceKey Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (immediate resistance, bear below)$96.11 4H 50-period MA$98 to $100 Resistance$106 to $108 June 2022 Resistance2022 and Monday highs $116 to $120Support Levels$87 to $90 mini-SupportPast session lows $86.49$82.80 to $84 Key Support2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80Past week spike $73.00 to $74.00$69 to $70 Main Support (If Ceasefire, should quickly head towards there)2025 lows $55.001H Chart and Action levels WTI Oil 1H Chart – March 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The 1H timeframe really shows how yesterday tilted the scales towards towards a more balanced price action – even slightly bearish.Yesterday's announcement brought a wave of optimism which quickly found its lows; WTI has been rallying slowly since and forming a rising wedge formation (bearish).The 1H RSI is also turning lower from neutral, a sign of potential reversal.But all things considered, as long as bears can't reject the $92.70 intraday resistance, the action is more mixed than anything – breaking the intraday highs would give the upper hand to the bulls towards $95.Keep track of the headlines and the Wedge support.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Downtrend confirmed, TACO rally likely a trap: Dow Jones Industrial Average has broken below its 200-day moving average and fallen ~10% from its peak, with the recent “TACO” (Trump Always Chickens Out) rebound likely a dead cat bounce rather than a sustainable reversal.Macro risks not fully priced by equities: The VIX/MOVE ratio signals that bond volatility is dominating, implying interest rate and stagflation risks remain underpriced in equities, leaving room for further downside.Key levels define next move: Immediate resistance sits at 46,710, while a break below 45,190 exposes further downside toward 44,975 and 44,505; failure to reclaim resistance keeps the bearish bias intact. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330”, published on 13 March 2026.The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran's repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.The VIX/MOVE ratio has not reached an extreme level on the upside Fig. 1: VIX/MOVE ratio with S&P 500 medium-term trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is the implied volatility of the S&P 500, a gauge for US equities. On the other hand, the ICE BofA MOVE Index (MOVE) measures the implied volatility of US Treasuries.Based on the latest price action of the VIX/MOVE ratio as of Tuesday, 24 March 2026, at the time of writing, it is trading below its 20-day moving average with a series of “lower highs and lower lows,” which suggests bond (US Treasuries) volatility is dominating, which implies interest rates uncertainty is the core driver at this juncture, and equity volatility is likely not fully pricing in such macro risk yet (may lead to more potential downside for US stock indices) (see Fig. 1).Also, the VIX/MOVE ratio has not crossed above its daily Bollinger Bands’ upper limit, where such movements in the past led to or coincided with significant bullish reversals in the S&P 500 on 20 November 2025, 16 October 2025, and 8 April 2025 (see Fig. 1).Let's now decipher the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspectiveDow Jones (DJIA) – Bearish reaction at 200-day moving average Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend as of 24 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 46,710 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 45,237/190 may expose the next intermediate supports at 44,975/810 and 44,505 (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a clearance above 46,710 invalidates the bearish reversal scenario for an extension of the mean reversion rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at 47,338 and 47,923.Key elements to support the bearish bias on Dow Jones (DJIA) Yesterday’s rally stalled at the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the descending channel from the 26 February 2026 high.The hourly MACD trend indicator staged a bearish reaction at its horizontal resistance level. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices surged by 4% after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the USThe US dollar strengthened on safe-haven demand and diminishing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year.Japan’s core inflation rate slipped to 1.6% in February, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.Technically, the FTSE 100 index is in a consolidation phase with a bearish alignmentMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozEmerging Asian equities saw a volatile session on Tuesday, ultimately paring their early gains as investor anxiety persisted regarding the energy-related economic fallout from the ongoing Middle East conflict.While market sentiment was initially bolstered by a recovery from previous losses, jitters remained high following Iran's denial of negotiations with the US aimed at ending the war.Consequently, major benchmarks across the region struggled to maintain their morning momentum, reflecting a cautious atmosphere despite the day's technical rebounds.Performance across individual markets was characterized by significant intraday retreats. South Korea’s KOSPI, which surged over 4% early on, settled closer to a 2.4% gain by the afternoon, while Taiwan’s shares cooled to a 0.8% increase after peaking at 2%.Similar patterns emerged in Singapore and Bangkok, where initial gains of 1.8% were whittled down to much slimmer margins. Despite these daily fluctuations, the broader monthly outlook remains grim; most regional benchmarks are deep in the red for the month, with losses ranging from 1% to 14%, leaving Indonesia and South Korea as some of the period's weakest performers.Japan inflation nears four-year lows Japan’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.3% in February, down from 1.5% in January and marking its lowest level since March 2022.This cooling trend was largely supported by food inflation, which remained near a 15-month low at 4.0% due to a significant slowdown in rice price increases.Additionally, price growth softened in the transport and clothing sectors, while education costs continued a steady decline of 5.6%.A major contributor to the disinflationary pressure was the energy sector, where government subsidies led to steeper drops in electricity (-8.0%) and gas (-5.1%) costs. While some categories like housing and healthcare remained stable, and others such as communications and recreation saw slight accelerations, the overall trend leaned downward.Notably, the core inflation rate slipped to 1.6%, falling below the central bank’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years.On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) retreated by 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of decline.European shares on course for lower open European equity markets were poised for a lower opening on Tuesday, erasing the gains achieved during the previous session.The optimistic sentiment that had briefly lifted global markets on Monday evaporated after Iran denied engaging in de-escalation talks with the United States. Despite earlier claims from President Donald Trump that productive negotiations were underway, which led him to postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, the regional conflict intensified as Iran continued strikes on US assets and Israel launched new attacks against both Iran and Lebanon.This resurgence of geopolitical tension has left investors cautious as they shift their focus to upcoming manufacturing data from across Europe. These reports will be critical for assessing how businesses are navigating the current climate of uncertainty and supply chain risks.Reflecting this shift toward risk aversion, Euro Stoxx 50 and Stoxx 600 futures fell by 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, during premarket trading.Commodity markets Global commodity markets remained volatile as geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic shifts took center stage.Oil prices surged by 4%, with Brent futures climbing $4 to reach $103.94 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rising $3.49 to settle at $91.62. This rebound followed a significant 10% drop on Monday after President Trump raised ceasefire hopes..However, prices rallied again after Iran denied that any such negotiations with the United States had taken place, reigniting fears of supply disruptions in the Gulf.In contrast, the precious metals market continued a downward trend, with gold prices falling more than 1% for a tenth consecutive session.Spot gold dropped 1.6% to $4,335.18 per ounce, hitting its lowest point since late November, while US gold futures saw a similar decline to $4,336.10. The slump in bullion was primarily driven by a strengthening US dollar, which increased the cost for international buyers, and diminishing expectations that the Federal Reserve would implement interest rate cuts in the near future.Gold prices have bounced ahead of the European open with the precious metal trading back above the $4400/oz handle at the time of writing.How did FX markets react? On Tuesday, the US dollar regained its footing as a shift toward investor caution bolstered the currency.The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers, rose 0.2% to 99.387, recovering from a previous dip to a two-week low. This performance puts the index on track for its strongest monthly gain since October, rising 1.8% this month.The dollar's resilience is largely fueled by safe-haven demand stemming from ongoing geopolitical conflict and a shift in market expectations, as traders have moved away from pricing in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut for this year. Analysis suggests the currency will likely remain supported until there are clear signs of international de-escalation.The dollar's strength weighed heavily on other major currencies, causing most to retreat from recent gains. Sterling eased 0.49% to $1.3388, and the euro slipped 0.3% to $1.1583, following brief rallies on Monday.Similarly, the Australian dollar dropped 0.6% from its six-week high to $0.6968, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.5% to $0.5832.Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remained weak at 158.73 per dollar after February data showed core consumer inflation in Japan hitting 1.6%. Falling below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nearly four years, this cooling inflation complicates the central bank’s ability to justify further interest rate hikes.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:USD/CAD: Cautiously bullish, waiting for a decisive break above 1.3730Peace hopes? – North American Session Market Wrap for March 23Farewell, Rate Cuts – Markets Weekly OutlookEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European session will be a bit busier today with a host of PMI data releases from both the EU and the UK.Moving to the US session, the current US macroeconomic landscape is centered on two pivotal releases: the weekly ADP jobs report, which investors are monitoring for any signs of labor market softening, and the provisional PMI data for March. While it may be premature for the PMI figures to show a significant downturn, there is a growing consensus that the ongoing energy supply shock will eventually dampen business sentiment.The US Dollar Index (DXY) has hit a ceiling at the top of its nine-month range, stalling near the 100.25/50 mark. Its potential for further gains in the medium term appears limited unless there is another major spike in energy prices or a visible strain in financial liquidity such as a widening of cross-currency basis swaps, which occurred briefly yesterday as banks turned to the FX swap market for dollar funding.For now, the DXY is expected to remain within a tight 99.00–100.00 range, pending the next major development in the Middle East conflict. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, based on the 4-hour chart the index is currently navigating a period of significant bearish volatility.The index has transitioned from a steady uptrend in early 2026 to a sharp corrective phase.Bearish Structure: The chart shows a clear "lower high" and "lower low" pattern since late February, when the index retreated from its record high near 10,910.Moving Averages: The price is trading well below both the 50-period (Blue) and 200-period (Yellow) SMAs. Notably, the 50-SMA is sloping downward and has crossed below the 200-SMA, often referred to as a "Death Cross," signaling sustained bearish momentum.The index is currently fighting to gain acceptance above the psychologically significant 10,000 level, which has flipped from support to a "sticky" resistance zone.The recent candles show long "wick" rejections near the 9,816 level, indicating that buyers are stepping in at these lower valuations, likely driven by the FTSE's heavy weighting in energy giants (BP, Shell) which benefit from $100+ oil prices.The FTSE 100 is in a short-term bearish cycle within a broader high-volatility environment. The index is currently "oversold" on a sentiment basis but fundamentally pressured by rising UK inflation (3%) and the Bank of England's "hawkish hold" at 3.75%.The Bull Case: If the index can reclaim and close above 10,000, it may attempt a relief rally toward the 200-SMA near 10,450.The Bear Case: Failure to hold 9,816 likely triggers a retest of the 9,610 major support floor.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 24, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/CAD experienced high volatility after the US postponed military strikes on Iran, leading to a "risk-on" sentiment shift.The resulting weakness in the US Dollar was offset by a massive ~7.5% drop in WTI crude oil, which prevented the commodity-linked CAD from making gains and left the pair flat near 1.3715.The bias is cautiously bullish, requiring a decisive break above the key technical level of 1.3730The pair's movement will be governed by the 5-day US/Iran discussion window, further WTI price swings, and the potential for new US tariffs on EU goods.Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozUSD/CAD had a wild ride today much like markets as a whole. Early in the session, the pair reached a fresh high of 1.3755, testing the peak set in January.Following a major geopolitical headline, the pair plummeted to an intraday low of 1.3683, testing critical technical support. By the afternoon, the pair settled into a flat, rotational pattern near 1.3715, as the market balanced a weaker US Dollar against falling oil prices.The Trump seesaw continues The defining driver was President Trump’s announcement to postpone planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure for five days. This triggered a "risk-on" sentiment shift, reducing the "war premium" and safe-haven demand that had been propping up the US Dollar.Crude oil (WTI) fell nearly 12% immediately following the news, eventually stabilizing near $90 (a 7.5% intraday drop). Since the Canadian Dollar is a commodity-linked currency, the massive drop in oil prices offset the US Dollar's weakness, preventing the CAD from making significant gains and leaving the pair "flat."Remarks from Fed officials provided a backdrop of caution. Governor Stephen Miran urged policy-making based on long-term trends rather than "short-term headlines," while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned that oil shocks remain "stagflationary," suggesting rate cuts might not happen until late 2026.Factors affecting USD/CAD moving forward Moving forward, the pair will likely be influenced by several high-impact variables:The five-day "window" established by the US for discussions with Iran will keep markets on edge. Any breakdown in talks or a resumption of strike threats would likely spike the USD and oil prices simultaneously.As Canada is a major crude exporter, the CAD remains highly sensitive to WTI price swings. If oil recovers on supply concerns, the CAD could strengthen; if de-escalation continues, oil may fall further, weakening the Loonie.Markets are closely watching for "proof of inflation" from the Fed. A hawkish stance from the Fed compared to a potentially more dovish Bank of Canada (BoC) would provide long-term upward pressure on USD/CAD.Reports of potential 15–20% minimum tariffs on EU goods by the Trump administration suggest a continuing protectionist stance that could bolster the USD through trade-war risk appetite.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD continues to test the 1.3730 key level.The daily chart shows USD/CAD is struggling to gain acceptance and record a daily candle close above the 1.3730 key level.If the pair does gain acceptance above this key level, there is a confluence area just beyond that where the 100-day (black) and 200-day (orange) MAs are converging near the 1.3800 handle.The 200-day MA at 1.3803 represents a "line in the sand", a break above this would signal a return to a long-term bullish bias.Significant long-term support remains at 1.3501.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sitting at 55.66, suggesting there is still room for further upside before the pair becomes overbought with momentum favoring bulls.The bias is cautiously bullish but lacks conviction. A decisive break and hold above 1.3730 would likely trigger a run toward the 1.3800 handle. Conversely, if the pair drops below the moving average cluster at 1.3650, expect a move back toward the 1.3580 support zone.USD/CAD Daily Chart, March 23, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 23 Recent trading sessions have been nothing short of wild roller coaster rides.Stock Markets reached new cycle lows on Friday and in the overnight Futures session, driven by fears of an escalation as the rhetoric seemed to intensify.But that wasn't without counting another Trump yo-yo, as he surprised Markets with the announcement of potential peace talks restarting, as the fourth week of the US-Iran conflict officially begins.On the announcement, a frantic wave of volatility unwinding shook Markets all over:Gold tumbled to $4,100, only to be saved by its 200-Day Moving Average (closing around $4,400). Stock Markets across the world exploded by 3% from their relative lows, Yields significantly eased, and, most importantly, Oil fell further.WTI broke the $90 psychological bar, and more strikingly, Brent fell back below $100 for the first time since March 13 – A significant easing in pricing compared to the slow grind higher that had been seen since.For now, this is only the beginning of some form of de-escalation, but it's not like peace is a done deal.With Iran denying any potential talks, optimism quickly faded. However, there are still signs that talks could be coming soon, with Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf travelling to Pakistan with US and Israeli approval.With about 4,500 US Marine troops currently traveling towards the Middle East, this could just be a distraction tactic, as mentioned here. Still, the reality is that we are now entering the fourth week, and both Israel and the US mentioned a 4 to 5-week operation.That would be a massive repricing for a deal, as Markets were getting increasingly pessimistic about the length of the conflict – The only truth is what Markets are saying:Keep a close eye on WTI, Brent, the US Dollar, and Stock Markets, which are losing some of their session strengths as the session concludes. Read More:Prudent optimism in Wall Street as US-Iran talks could confirm – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookCrazy swings all across Markets as US-Iran talks pick up: Gold grazes $4,000, WTI to $90 – Market CheckGold (XAU/USD) recovers from 9% plunge, technical bias remains firmly bearish below $4,500/ozStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 23, 2026 The heatmap did not change much since our afternoon Stock Market check, but there has been some (logical) profit-taking and deleveraging towards the close – Uncertainty is still high, but tomorrow should help to clarify whether the optimism is logical or not.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The session got wild after the Trump Truth Social post – Look at all the wild swings around Markets.Oil remains the guide for Market flows and sentiment. Those waiting to fill up their gas tanks at lower prices might still have to wait a bit, but that's definitely an improvement!Tomorrow's continuation will be necessary to confirm the risk-on turn for global assets.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 23, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX was all over the place today, with risk-off currencies initially leading along with the stronger GBP (with a hike repricing for next meeting with the Bank of England – Watch out if Brent falls off a cliff!)But risk-currencies then took the lead, supported by the tumble in the Dollar after the Trump post. GBP, AUD and NZD are the leaders of today's sessionA look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The calendar for the next 24 hours is packed.APAC traders will have to lean on the AUD and JPY for a few economic clues including Australian PMIs and Japan Inflation. But NZD traders will also have to log in for a Governor Breman speech at 21:00 (ET).Not even mentioning a flurry of Central Bank speeches, PMIs will release throughout most Major economies, and it seems to me that around this point of the cycle, Central Bankers will look more closely at economic clues to know whether they should actually hike or not – Expect these releases to move Markets!Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Relative policy dynamics driving FX moves: USD/JPY weakness highlights that USD strength is not absolute, hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and Bank of England offset Fed expectations, pushing the US dollar lower.Hawkish tilt from BoJ supports yen strength: Despite holding rates, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s comments on wages and inflation signal a potential hike path, reinforcing upside pressure on the yen.Technical downside risk building: USD/JPY is at risk of further decline below 157.40–157.50 support (20-day MA), exposing 156.55, while failure to reclaim 159.37 resistance keeps the near-term bearish bias intact. In the world of foreign exchange, we measured performance on a relative basis in terms of price action structures and macro factors.A hawkish stance or guidance from the US Federal Reserve does not necessarily result in sustained US dollar strength, as the currency’s trajectory is ultimately shaped by relative monetary policy dynamics across other major developed market central banks.The ex-post 18 March’s FOMC US dollar strength pop due to Fed funds futures market now pricing in no interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 was evaporated yesterday, reinforced by hawkish guidance from the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) despite keeping their respective policy rates unchanged at 2% and 3.75%.Ex-post FOMC US dollar strength evaporated Interest swap markets in the Eurozone and the UK have started to price in two 25 basis points (bps) hikes this year, each by the ECB and the BoE, due to their concerns on inflation risks arising from the slowdown driven by stagflation fear driven by the oil supply shock coming out from the Middle East (US-Iran War).The US Dollar Index shed -1.1% on Thursday, 19 March 2026, erased the prior day's gain of 0.7% (ex-post FOMC), and the USD/JPY fared slightly worse off with a daily loss of 1.3%.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its policy interest rate unchanged 0.75%, and we have warned in our BoJ monetary preview report published earlier on Wednesday, 18 March, that BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference that tends to tilt towards dovish vibes more often based on past conferences, is likely not to trigger a bout of strength in the USD/JPY this time round.Read more: BoJ meeting preview: Balancing act between growth and inflation as USD/JPY approaches 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zoneBoJ Ueda’s hawkish press conference BoJ Governor Ueda highlighted in the post-monetary policy decision press conference that the current spring wage talks have been delivering high chances of another year of wage increases.He also noted that authorities need to keep monitoring the impact of currency movements on consumer prices, as FX moves now may have more impact on prices than before.These statements are considered hawkish that suggests BoJ is still on the path of one interest rate hike before 2026 ends.Let’s focus now on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.USD/JPY – At risk of breaking below 20-day moving average Fig. 1: USD/JPY minor trend as of 20 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 159.03/159.37 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 157.50/157.40 (also the 20-day moving average) exposes the next intermediate support at 156.55 (also the 50-day moving average) in the first step.On the flip side, a clearance above 159.37 invalidates the bearish bias for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistances at 160.23 and 160.74 (also the intervention risk zone where BoJ sold USD against JPY in the past).Key elements to support the bearish bias on USD/JPY The price actions of the USD/JPY have broken down below the minor ascending channel support from the 27 February 2026 low of 155.54.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has exited from the oversold region without any bullish divergence condition, which suggests that the current bounce from Thursday, 19 March 2026, low of 157.51 is a minor corrective rebound within a minor downtrend phase. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 19 After yesterday's FOMC session, the market experienced a significant shift.The previous trends benefiting the US Dollar and Crude Oil have now eased. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's latest address suggests that the ongoing conflict could end sooner than anticipated.This major change, combined with the global Central Banks' shift toward a more hawkish stance—particularly from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, which are now signaling potential interest rate hikes in coming meetings—contrasts sharply with the cuts and pauses that were previously expected before the recent surge in oil prices.One key consideration is that if the conflict does conclude earlier than expected, Oil prices could sharply decline (though not as low as they were previously). This would likely lead to a reduction in inflation expectations and a decrease in anticipated rate hikes, creating even more uncertainty for traders.Metals have been sharply declining due to the more hawkish policies from Central Banks, along with global stock indexes. However, following Netanyahu’s press conference, WTI and Brent crude prices fell by nearly 10%, easing some pressure on global assets. Brent Oil 15M Chart – Source: TradingView The US stock markets made a comeback, coming close to positive territory after a dismal pre-open session, but they failed to maintain their highs. This shift is still significant.Gold is now trading below $4,700, Platinum below $2,000, and Silver dropped by 4% in the session to $72. Expect wild fluctuations in the metals market in the upcoming sessions. An in-depth analysis of metals will be provided tomorrow morning. Gold is still back below $4,700, Platinum, below $2,000 and Silver down 4% on the session to $72 – Expect wild movements in upcoming sessions for metals. An in-depth Metals analysis will be coming up tomorrow morning. Read More:The US Dollar dives after the FOMC, long-term reversal incoming? – Dollar Index (DXY) outlookWall Street gaps down, weak dip-buying attempts – Dow Jones and US Stock Market OutlookBank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 19, 2026 The heatmap is looking much healthier than it was this morning, but doubts still remain – Defensive Stocks have in general struggled more and rebounds have been more chaotic.Tomorrow's session will be essential for Stock bulls!Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Talk about a chaotic session today! Oil was once again the main culprit, notably after making a pump-and-dump after he announcement that the US will not ban Oil exports.It closes down 5% in the past 24 hours, around $95 (for WTI).Metals and Crypto also had to kick the can down the road despite the better afternoon mood, with only Stocks profiting from the better War news.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 19, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The FX perf is almost an exact mirror of what happened yesterday, with Antipodeans easily recovering what they had lost previously, with the Canadian Dollar and US Dollar on the other side of the performance spectrum. The Yen however, is back on top shortly after USD/JPY reached new highs – Talk about a reversal!If the USD opens lower tomorrow, you can expect these flows to persist.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After today's insane session, tomorrow should be more contained.Expect some movement around Antipodean currencies with the NZD trade data and PBoC Rate Decision coming up soon.Tomorrow will also see the release of PPI in Germany and Retail Sales for Canada.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday's FOMC meeting marked the beginning of a rough session for Traders around the globe.Global Stocks Indexes took large hits, correcting down 3% in Japan, London and Europe and gapping down starkly in this morning's open. Dow Jones Index 4H Chart – Source: TradingView As you can see on the Index chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Index, heavy selling pressure from a massive hawkish repricing has applied large pressure on US Equities and others around the world. Yesterday's conference from Jerome Powell did not help to contain the initial scare of higher rates for longer – as a matter of fact, his wordings around the current 3.50%-3.75% were estimated to be located "at the plausible range of Neutral [rates]", implying that further movement in the Fed Policy would only be contingent on a weakening economy or Labor Market.And we haven't seen any sign of this for now – Quite the contrary: Jobless Claims came at 205K, the lowest since January (and they were at two year lows at that time) Jobless Claims since March 2023 – Source: Trading Economics This also combines with a flurry of Central Bank Decisions (including the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank) which haven't communicated any type of dovishness.When assuming that Crude Oil prices are now 40% higher than they were the last trading day of February, and close to 90% higher since their January lows, it is difficult not to reprice some heavy form of inflation spike.Everybody feels it at the pump, it hasn't been fun. Read More:Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged as war and rising energy prices complicate inflation fightMarkets Today: European Gas futures soar 25%, Brent hits $119/barrel. Central bank pressure heats up as ECB meeting loomsFOMC pauses rates yet again, Dollar explodes – Economic Projections and (Updated) Market ReactionsMarket ReactionsCrude Oil spikes higher but eases since, Brent-WTI spread widens even more Brent to WTI Spread – Source: TradingView European and Asian Markets are getting even more concerned by the latest escalation in Energy infrastructure attacks across the Middle East, as these regions remain heavily affected by supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.A detailed Crude Oil analysis will be coming at the top of the hour.US Treasuries volatility spikes, Curve flattens US Treasury Bonds – March 19, 2026 – Courtesy of Finviz Bond traders are now largely undoing the steepening that was priced in the Rate curve (implying that rates will be lower in the near term than the long-term).The issue with this is that such Curve conditions tighten credit and largely hurts banks.This is also the type of Curve movement that can precede either rate hikes or recessions – two conditions that aren't the most favorable for Stock Markets or any other Markets as a matter of fact.In general, a flatter yield curve means that current inflation is expected to be higher than long-term inflation – This comes with the heavy rises in WTI.The US Dollar marks a top after the FOMC DXY 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Markets may at least reconcile with the fact that the US Dollar is now correcting back to its pre-FOMC levels – This happens at the top of its July 2025 Range (from 96.00 to the current 100.00).An in-depth US Dollar analysis will be coming up this afternoon, but the general theme to keep in mind is the fact that an easing dollar may also ease general pressures around Markets since the beginning of the War.Watch the 4H 50-MA that has however just acted as support – Bouncing here would reinforce the pre-open panic.This pullback has helped the JPY to relief, and similarly for other currencies – The USD is now at the bottom of the FX board in today's session. The correction in WTI is also helping. Current Session in FX (10:39 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Gold retests its February lows Gold 4H Chart – March 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView The price action in Gold and other metals has been very ugly, as participants really price out the Global Rate cuts, giving relative strength to yielding assets.This phenomenon is magnified by the lack of consistent rallies since the beginning of the War and a general scare of a long-term inflationary process. Still, it's not the end of the World for metals until $4,400 breaks – Here could be a decent, small DCA entry point for those who did not participate in the trend.Below $4,400 however may see further correction back to $4,000 and below, $3,500 so make sure to watch for your size and add only on confirmation!Cryptos are tumbling Current Session in Cryptos (10:35 A.M.) – Courtesy of Finviz Bitcoin is now back below $70,000; Ethereum remains relatively strong at $2,100 but the overall Market is getting hurt by the latest hawkish repricing.Keep a close eye on headlines and flows throughout the day as today is promised to be quite volatile.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 3.75%, choosing a wait-and-see approach as uncertainty around inflation and growth increases.War in the Middle East and higher energy prices have worsened the inflation outlook, raising the risk that inflation could stay elevated for longer than previously expected.The UK economy remains weak, which leaves the Bank facing a difficult trade-off between containing inflation and avoiding further damage to growth. The Bank of England unanimously decided to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75%, judging that the best course of action for now is to wait and gather more evidence. The decision highlights just how difficult the current environment has become for the UK central bank. On the one hand, inflation risks are starting to build again. On the other, the economy remains fragile, and weak growth prospects do not justify further monetary tightening. United Kingdom interest rate, source: Trading Economics War in the Middle East reshapes the inflation outlookThe key factor behind the Bank’s decision is a fresh energy shock triggered by the war in the Middle East. Higher oil and gas prices are feeding into inflation both directly, through fuel costs and household energy bills, and indirectly, through rising operating costs for businesses. The Bank has made clear that it cannot influence global commodity prices, but it can try to prevent this shock from becoming embedded in domestic inflation.Inflation is becoming a bigger concern againEven before the conflict escalated, the UK inflation picture had been gradually improving. That trend has now clearly deteriorated. The Bank of England estimates that inflation could reach around 3.5% in March, remain close to 3% in the second quarter, and then climb back to as high as 3.5% in the third quarter if energy prices stay elevated. That marks a notable shift from earlier projections, which had pointed to inflation closer to 2.1%. In other words, the disinflation process has been disrupted by external factors that monetary policy can only partially offset. United Kingdom core inflation rate, source: Trading Economics A weak economy makes the policy choice harderThe problem is that higher inflation is not being accompanied by stronger economic momentum. Quite the opposite: UK activity remains subdued, GDP growth is sluggish, and labour demand has softened. Higher energy costs could make matters worse by squeezing household real incomes and weighing further on consumption. In effect, the Bank of England is facing a familiar but difficult trade-off: how to contain inflation without worsening the slowdown in growth.The biggest risk: inflation becoming entrenchedThe Monetary Policy Committee sees risks on both sides, but for now it appears more concerned about upside inflation risks. Of particular concern are so-called second-round effects — the possibility that higher energy prices begin to feed into wage demands and broader domestic price pressures. That would be especially problematic, as it could keep inflation elevated for longer than markets currently expect. The longer energy prices remain high, the greater that risk becomes.What happens next with interest ratesThe Bank of England is not offering any strong guidance on its next move. Its message suggests that if the energy shock proves temporary and the economy stays weak, monetary policy could gradually become less restrictive over time. But if higher energy prices turn out to be more persistent and start to drive inflation expectations higher, the Bank could be forced to take a more hawkish stance. That means a rate hike is not the base case, but it has not been ruled out entirely. Unanimity today does not mean certainty tomorrowThe unanimous vote to leave rates unchanged should not be mistaken for full agreement on the future path of policy. Comments from Committee members suggest that even before the outbreak of the conflict, some had been close to backing a rate cut. For now, however, caution is dominating the discussion. Policymakers first need to assess the scale and persistence of the energy shock before deciding whether the next step should be a cut, a prolonged hold, or even renewed tightening.The Bank of England opts for a wait-and-see approachThe latest decision shows that the Bank of England has moved firmly into wait-and-see mode. Faced with war, higher energy prices and rising uncertainty, it is unwilling to move too quickly in either direction. For now, the priority is to determine whether this shock will prove temporary or evolve into a more persistent inflation problem. That assessment will shape the next phase of UK monetary policy. GBPUSD is currently trading near key support around 1.3225. Holding this level could be the first sign that the downward correction is coming to an end. Daily GBPUSD chart, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Escalating conflict in the Middle East, including strikes on energy infrastructure, caused European shares to drop sharply.European natural gas futures soared 25%, and Brent crude briefly hit $119/barrel, intensifying global inflation fears.Central banks like the ECB and BoE are now under pressure to implement rate hikes to combat energy-driven inflation, reversing previous market expectations for rate cutsMost Read: Gold (XAU/USD) price slides 3.3%. Is Gold offering a discount or facing freefall heading into FOMC?European shares slide on rising Middle East tensionsEuropean markets experienced a significant downturn on Thursday as the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered a surge in energy prices, complicating the inflation outlook for global central banks.The FTSEurofirst 300 dropped nearly 2% in early trading following a series of strategic strikes on energy infrastructure, including Iran’s South Pars gas field, a major plant in Qatar, and refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The geopolitical instability has fundamentally shifted expectations for monetary policy.Benchmark government bond yields rose as investors anticipated that the European Central Bank (ECB) would now be forced to implement at least two interest rate hikes this year, a sharp reversal from the pre-war forecast of a potential rate cut in 2026.While the Swiss National Bank maintained rates at zero, it signaled a readiness to intervene in currency markets to stabilize the Swiss franc, which has surged as investors flee to traditional "safe haven" assets.The latest volatility follows a violent cycle of retaliation described by US President Donald Trump, who noted that Israel "violently lashed out" against Iran's gas fields on Wednesday.Iran responded by targeting oil and gas facilities across the region, including those in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. This intensification has drawn urgent concern from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, leaving the ECB and the Bank of England to navigate a complex landscape of rising borrowing costs and energy-driven inflation.Brent Crude & European Gas futures soar European natural gas futures soared about 25% to above €68 per MWh on Thursday, reaching their highest levels in over three years.Earlier in the session, Brent had climbed more than $10 to a high of $119.13, close to the three-and-a-half-year peak touched on March 9. Prices of Brent futures have since settled around 114.77 a barrel, a rise of around 6.9%. Source: LSEG These regional disruptions are particularly critical as they coincide with the start of the seasonal stockpiling period. With energy storage levels already sitting roughly 15% below the five-year average following a harsh winter, the sudden loss of Middle Eastern output threatens to leave global reserves significantly depleted heading into the next year.How did FX markets react? The Japanese yen strengthened on Thursday, rising 0.4% to approximately 159.22 per dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of an April rate hike.Although the BOJ maintained its current rate at 0.75% and reiterated that the economy is recovering moderately, Ueda’s hawkish lean provided a boost to the currency.Meanwhile, the US dollar index dipped slightly to 100.12, though it remains near a four-month high as investors abandon expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.Markets are now almost entirely pricing in a "hold" for the Fed’s April 29 meeting, with any potential easing being pushed out as far as 2027.In Europe, both the euro and the British pound saw modest gains, rising to $1.1468 and $1.3272, respectively. The pound's movement came alongside data showing that British wage growth excluding bonuses, hit its slowest pace since late 2020.Similarly, the Australian dollar edged up to $0.7050 despite domestic headwinds. February data revealed an uptick in Australia's unemployment rate to 4.3%.The digital asset market did not share in the recovery, as major cryptocurrencies retreated amid the broader geopolitical tension. Bitcoin fell roughly 1.35% to trade near $70,285, while Ether saw a 0.5% decline, dropping to $2,178.This downward trend reflects a cautious "risk-off" sentiment as traders navigate a heavy schedule of central bank meetings overshadowed by the escalating crisis in Iran.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Read More:Morning Market Check – Energy infrastructures attacked in Iran, Bank of Canada holds rates, & US PPIUSD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)Chart alert: Gold medium-term downtrend triggered as $4,960 support brokeEconomic calendar and final thoughts The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England are both scheduled to announce their interest rate decisions later today.Expectations are for neither bank to change its current rates, markets will be watching very closely for any clues about how the war in the Middle East might change their future plans.Given the ECB has struggled with high oil prices and inflation in the past, especially during the 2022 energy crisis many people are nervous about what they might do next.However, I believe this situation is different from 2022. My expectation is for ECB President Christine Lagarde to be very careful with her words, similar to how U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been. Because the market has already predicted that rates might go up significantly over the next year, even a small comment from the bank could cause a big reaction.In fact, because expectations are already so high, the ECB might actually sound more relaxed (dovish) than people expect, as they probably aren't ready to commit to a specific plan just yet. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index The UK 100 (FTSE 100) is under heavy bearish pressure, currently trading at 10,079.2 and down 0.42% on the session. The chart shows a decisive break below the significant 10,101.8 support level, following a failure to hold the 10,269.0 handle earlier this week.Technically, the index is trading well below its 50-period SMA (10,509.6) and 200-period SMA (10,475.3), confirming a strong downward trend. The RSI is at 30.2, hovering on the edge of oversold territory, which suggests the selling momentum is aggressive but could be nearing a temporary exhaustion point.What to watch next:Bearish Case: If the price remains below 10,100, the next major psychological floor is 10,000.0, followed by deeper support at 9,973.6.Bullish Case: A recovery would require a "fake-out" reversal back above 10,101.8 to target the 10,269 resistance zone.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 19, 2026 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This morning marks a busy start to a busy day with Volatility taking another upside turn.WTI and Energy Commodities bounce again Starting chronologically, a first event has changed the price action in Energy and overall Commodities Markets – As the US-Iran-Israel War continues, now in its 19th day, strategies are evolving and are facing further escalation.After eliminating major IRGC and Basij Generals, the US and Israel launched waves of attack against Gas infrastructures in Iran, particularly the South Pars Gas Fields, which stand very close to Qatar, and the Emirate was not happy about it, as Iran pledged to respond against (more) energy facilities in the Gulf.According to this piece, this could be a strategy to punish European and Asian countries and other nations for failing to make the necessary decisions to protect the Strait of Hormuz – not a surreal take, as these countries are the most affected by such Natural Gas and Crude supply disruptions.In any case, this has led to a solid bounce in Oil, also hurting the broader Markets WTI Oil 2H Chart. March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView WTI is forming what resembles the beginning to form a range, with the overnight rally just stalling right around yesterday's highs – But it still seems early to say.Note: Right as I'm about to post this, WTI is moving to its session highs – Keep a close eye on the $100 level!What is for sure, is that the fundamentals once again took over the technicals, a classic of Wartime unpredictability.The Head & Shoulders noted yesterday is now void – Watch if a range between $92 and $99 forms or if $100 breaks again.Technical Levels for WTI for FOMC tradingResistance Levels$99.20 morning highs! (broke previous day highs)$98 to $100 Resistance (testing)$101.20 Globex Open highs$106 to $108 June 2022 ResistanceWar highs $116 to $120Support LevelsKey Momentum Pivot $93.00 to $95 (range lows bearish below)2H 50-period MA $96.33$92.70 Overnight lows2025 Highs Key Support $78 to $80$69 to $70 Main Support2025 lows $55.00US PPI rises to 0.7% M/M! Largest rise since July 2025 US PPI Data in the past 12 months – Source: Trading Economics The chart is not looking good, particularly if you consider that this is past month data and that things could be looking even uglier next month, with the War adding a 30% premium to Crude prices.This would be the nail in the coffin for US Rate cuts in 2026, but we will learn more on the issue during the FOMC event (14:00 ET).For now, Bonds and Stocks are down but not reacting much to the news – Rises in Crude have a larger influence.But in any case, it's Metals that are taking the hit as Participants await for the Fed – Check out why right here. Metals Future Performance – March 18, 2026. TradingView Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged, Canadian Dollar holds strong USD/CAD 4H Chart – March 18, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Bank of Canada just held rates for the 3rd consecutive meeting at 2.25% – Nothing really new in the Statement except for some provisions for change if the Middle East conflict was to span for longer – The BoC is looking for more clarity if they want to move rates further.Economic risks have been marked to the downside, inflation to the upside due to to energy prices – You can access the full statement right here.The Canadian dollar is holding strong after initially falling slightly – It's still supported by Oil prices and that should remain for the time being.For those interested, Macklem is going to appear in a few minutes.Safe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold (XAU/USD) is down 3.3%, breaking the key $5,000 psychological support level ahead of the FOMCThe market anticipates a "hawkish hold" from the Fed, potentially delaying rate cuts to 2027, which remains a key downside riskTechnically, the breakdown suggests the "path of least resistance" is down, with structural support at $4,760.46Is the selloff offering a discount ahead of the FOMC?Read More: USD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)The price of gold is down around 2.3% on the day as the precious metal slides ahead of the key FOMC meeting later in the day.The precious metal has been grinding all week around the $5000/oz mark and has finally made its move. This leaves market participants with an interesting conundrum, is it another buy the dip opportunity or is gold at risk of freefall?FOMC meeting The reason for this question is simple, markets are pretty much resigned to the fact that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold today. The bigger question is around the updated summary of economic projections (SEP) and how that may change.As things stand market participants are leaning toward a hawkish tilt on that front with rate cuts likely being pushed back to 2027.For the full Federal Reserve preview read FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesIf such a move takes place, could Gold be sent on a downward spiral? Circling back to today's move and the US Dollar has been relatively steady which should actually be a concern.Gold prices are falling and the US dollar has not even started to recover this week's losses. If the DXY rallies after today's FOMC meeting that could be a catalyst for further downside in Gold prices.Haven demand & discount opportunity Since the February 28 war in Iran began, safe haven demand has been overshadowed by the surge in the US Dollar and diminishing rate cut bets.One would have to think that only a major change in the current conflict and potentially some other developments around the global economy will be needed in order for Gold to receive the haven flows once more (a change in the status quo) if you will.There is another school of thought heading into today's FOMC meeting. It could be that market participants already expecting a hawkish Fed tilt may be frontrunning with today's selloff.Selling the rumor of a hawkish Fed tilt and pricing it in ahead of the actual updates later today and when the meeting takes place we could see buyers return to the fold and buy Gold at what could be considered a discount level ahead of the next potential rally.Is this what we are seeing today? I guess we have to wait and see.Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, the H4 chart illustrates a clear shift from a bullish "blow-off" top seen earlier in the month to a consolidative, slightly bearish trend.Moving Averages & TrendSMA (50, blue): Currently at $5,095.84. The price has slipped below this short-term trend indicator, which is now acting as immediate dynamic resistance.SMA (100, green): Located at $5,144.74. The widening gap between the 50 and 100 SMAs suggests that the recent bearish momentum is accelerating.Price Structure: The red box highlights a multi-day consolidation zone. The recent breakdown below this box (around $5,020) suggests that the "path of least resistance" has shifted to the downside in the short term.Support and Resistance LevelsCritical Resistance: $5,128.50 and $5,096.72. These levels align with the recent consolidation floor and the 50-period SMA. A break above these would be required to neutralize the bearish bias.Psychological Support: $5,000.00. This is the "line in the sand." As seen on the far right of the chart, the price is aggressively testing this level.Structural Support: $4,760.46. This represents a major historical floor. If $5,000 fails to hold on a daily closing basis, this is the primary downside target.Momentum IndicatorsRSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently reading 27.32.This indicates that Gold is in oversold territory on the H4 timeframe.While this often precedes a temporary bounce (mean reversion), in a strong downtrend, an oversold RSI can "stay low" for extended periods as price grinds down.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways BoJ policy pause amid stagflation risks: The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%, balancing rising inflation with slowing growth as higher oil prices from the US–Iran war in 2026 weigh on Japan’s economy and consumer confidence.Mixed macro signals but tightening bias intact: While weak equity performance (e.g., Nikkei 225 down ~9%) signals soft sentiment, improving wages and sticky inflation support expectations for at least one 25 bps rate hike in 2026.Yen under pressure near intervention zone: The USD/JPY is hovering around the 159.45–161.95 intervention risk zone, keeping markets cautious. A break below 157.50 could trigger near-term USD weakness, while continued yen depreciation raises the risk of official intervention. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0. 75% when it concludes its two-day monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 19 March 2026, as the current elevated oil prices due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict stoke stagflation risk.Japan’s Nikkei 225 is signaling a lackluster consumer confidence Fig. 1: Nikkei 225 & major global benchmark stock indices from 27 Feb 2026 to 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan is a major net oil importer, where it gets more than 90% of its crude oil from the Middle East, hence, soaring oil prices are set to push up daily living costs in Japan, in turn, dampen consumer and business confidence, and eventually slow down economic growth.This negative feedback loop is at play, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 is the second-worst-performing global benchmark stock index, that shed -9% since the start of the US-Iran war as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in January 2026 Fig. 2: Key economic data that BoJ monitors as of Jan-Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) In a parliamentary speech on Tuesday, BoJ Governor Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the 2% target. In addition, Ueda mentioned that wages and prices are rising moderately together, as companies become more willing to pass on higher input and labour costs.Before the US-Iran war, Japan’s real wages rose for the first time in 13 months in January to hit a growth rate of 1.40% y/y (see Fig 2). Also, Japan’s large corporations are expected to offer wage increases of 5% or more for the third consecutive year after the conclusion of this year’s annual spring wage talks on Wednesday.BoJ is still expecting to hike by 25 bps in 2026 Fig. 3: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The interest rate swap market in Japan is still implying BoJ is looking to hike its policy rate by at least 25 basis points in 2026. The 1-year overnight indexed swap rate has held steady at 1% and increased slightly to 1.03% as of Tuesday, 17 March 2026, and is also above the 1-month overnight indexed swap rate quoted at 0.74% (see Fig. 3).BoJ Governor’s press conference will be in focus as USD/JPY hovers at 159.45/161.95 key intervention risk zone Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term trend as of 18 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) BoJ Governor Ueda’s press conference after the monetary policy decision will be at 3.30 p.m. (Tokyo time) on Thursday, 19 March 2026.Ueda will elaborate on the BoJ’s reasoning behind the current policy decision, and in the past press conferences, Ueda tends to paint a balancing act and tilt towards a dovish stance, in turn, often weakening the Japanese yen thereafter.However, this time round it might be different as the yen has weakened significantly since the onset of the US-Iran war, where it hit almost a 20-month low against the US dollar at 159.75 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, slightly above the previous intervention level of 159.45, where Japanese authorities sold the US dollar and brought back the yen on 12 July 2024.The USD/JPY is now trading at 159.00 at this time of writing. Hence, short-term speculators are likely to be cautious about taking aggressive yen short positions as the USD/JPY continues to fluctuate around the key intervention risk zone of 159.45/161.95 (see Fig. 4).Short-term US dollar bears may get traction if USD/JPY breaks below the key near-term support of 157.50 (also the 20-day moving average) to trigger a potential minor decline towards the next support at 154.65 (23 February 2026 swing low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current up move from the 12 February 2026 low to 13 March 2026 high) (see Fig. 4). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European shares, including the STOXX 600, extended their recovery for a third day, driven by easing oil prices and stronger overall market sentimentOil prices (Brent and WTI) retreated due to the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields and a much larger-than-expected rise in US crude stocks.Focus shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting, where a "hawkish hold" is expected, with a strong possibility of adjusting the "Dot Plot" to show zero rate cuts for 2026.Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesEuropean shares extend recovery for a third dayEuropean stock markets continued to climb on Wednesday. Investors were feeling more optimistic as oil prices dropped, due to easing supply concerns.This in turn aided overall sentiment and thus gave risk assets a boost coupled with a bullish outlook by NVIDIA. Market HighlightsSTOXX 600: This main European index rose 0.5% to 605.59 points. This marks the third day in a row the index has gone up, which is its best performance in a month.Energy vs. Finance: The .SXEP (Energy) sector fell 0.3%, ending an eight-day winning streak because of lower oil prices. On the flip side, .SX7P (Financial) stocks were the biggest reason the overall market stayed positive.Global Context: Markets around the world are recovering because oil prices stopped rising, despite the growing tension between Israel and Iran.This follows on from a strong Asian session where Japan's stock market saw a strong recovery as the Nikkei climbed 2.87% to reach 55,239.4, effectively ending a four-day period of losses.Similarly, the Topix, which tracks a broader range of companies, rose 2.49% to finish at 3,717.41.How did FX markets react? The US dollar weakened for the third day in a row. The dollar index, which compares the US currency against six other major ones, dropped 0.04% to 99.51.In response, several other global currencies gained value: the euro rose to $1.1543, while the Japanese yen strengthened to 158.64 per dollar.Sterling also saw a small increase to $1.3368.In the Oceania region, both the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar moved higher, reaching $0.7117 and $0.5868, respectively.The cryptocurrency market showed mixed results, as bitcoin BTC/USD fell 0.50% to $74,184.63, while Ethereum ETH/USD managed a slight gain of 0.04% to reach $2,329.46.Currency Strength Chart Source: OANDA Labs Commodities & Energy Gold prices remained mostly stable on Wednesday as investors cautiously watched the Middle East conflict while waiting for the US Federal Reserve’s latest policy update.Spot gold and US gold futures both saw slight increases of 0.1%, reaching $5,008.58 and $5,012.60 respectively.While the ongoing Iran conflict has kept Brent futures above $100 for several days, prices finally retreated on Wednesday, dropping 1.46% to $101.91.Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.86% to $93.46.This dip in oil prices was largely driven by the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey, following an agreement between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government.This provided some relief to a market worried about supply shortages, especially since Iraq aims to pump at least 100,000 barrels per day through the pipeline.Additionally, data from the API suggested a significant rise in US crude stocks by over 6.5 million barrels, a much larger increase than the 380,000 barrels predicted by a recent Reuters poll.Read More:Technical levels for major FX pairs ahead of the FOMCUSD/JPY Conundrum: Intervention risk looms as central banks meet (Fed-BoJ double-header)Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts It is a quiet day on the European calendar with the final release of the Euro Area CPI the highlight. Barring any surprise from the print it should be a quiet session with eyes turning to the US session.US PPI data will kick things off following the Bank of Canada rate decisions where markets are expecting the BoC to hold rates firm.The Federal Reserve meeting will then be the focus where the FED is expected to keep interest rates steady, but there is a strong possibility they will adjust their "Dot Plot" projections to show no rate cuts for 2026.If the median forecast shifts from one cut to zero, the US dollar will likely see a boost.Conversely, the market might still hope for a rate cut if the Fed's statement highlights "downside risks" regarding the job market.Chair Powell is unlikely to give firm guidance on how the Middle East conflict affects inflation and growth, as commodity markets remain too volatile. While the dollar may see a brief rally following the Fed’s new projections, its value will likely stay tied to fluctuating oil prices and geopolitical news. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index is currently locked in a consolidation phase, attempting to establish a viable floor.We are on course for a third day of gains but price needs to break above the 200-day MA at 10476 to convince bulls that the consolidation may be over.The index is trading in a tight range centered around 10269-10476 area as buyers and sellers battle for control.Immediate Resistance: The first hurdle for bulls sits at 10,476, which aligns with the 200-period Simple Moving Average (yellow line). A break above this would target the psychological 10536 level (dark blue line), which formerly acted as support and has now flipped to resistance.Key Support: On the downside, the 10350 level is the immediate line in the sand. Should this fail, the recent swing low at 10,101 represents the final major support before the psychological 10,000 mark comes into play.The technical "death cross" or bearish alignment of the moving averages suggests that the path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) period-14 is finally above the 50 handle which does hint at some bullish momentum.The lack of a clear divergence suggests that while the aggressive selling has paused, there is currently no strong conviction for a sustained breakout.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 158.90, facing a high risk of FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance as it nears the 160.00 level.The week is dominated by a "central bank double-header," with the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday.Check out the possible scenario matrix i have put together. What would a BoJ and Fed hawkish tilt mean?Most Read: FOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesUSD/JPY is caught in a real conundrum at present and continues to edge lower ahead of a crucial pair of central bank meetings. The pair trades at 158.90 right now as the 160.00 handle still remains elusive.The question that is also keeping markets on edge with USD/JPY is the potential for FX intervention as both the FED and BoJ would like to see USD/JPY lower. For different reasons of course but this appears to be the case. Looking at the longer term bullish trend which still remains intact, it has been largely supported by the gap between US and Japanese bond yields. This remains a key factor that will play a role moving forward.While the USD is currently overbought, buyers remain in control as long as the Fed stays hawkish and the BoJ remains relatively loose.With these more longer term factors playing out, focus will shift back to the now. The rest of this week will be key and could be the deciding factor in whether FX intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance will support the Yen.What to watch for the rest of the week The week ahead is dominated by a "central bank double-header" that will likely determine the next major trend for USD/JPY. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Federal Reserve (Wednesday, March 18)The Decision: The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 3.75%.The Impact: The real movement will come from the "Dot Plot" (projections for future rate cuts). If the Fed signals fewer cuts for 2026 due to sticky inflation (currently around 3.1%), the US Dollar could surge, potentially testing the 160.00 level against the YenThe Bank of Japan (Thursday, March 19)The Decision: The BoJ is forecast to keep its policy rate at 0.75%.The Impact: Markets will look for the BoJ’s assessment of rising energy costs. If the BoJ sounds concerned that high oil prices are hurting the economy, they may delay further rate hikes, which would weaken the Yen. However, any hint of a "hawkish" shift to combat inflation could trigger a sharp pullback in USD/JPY.Below I have compiled my own matrix for potential scenarios depending on how the Central Bank meetings turns out. Obviously this is not a given and it is just my personal opinion, as high volatility is likely a given especially if we trade near the 160.00 level ahead of either meeting. Created by Zain Vawda USD/JPY Daily Chart, March 18, 2026 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

It has been what felt like a few years since the previous FOMC, with what resembles a totally different Market since.Since January 28, Oil is up close to 60%, Silver is down 25%, previously indestructible US Indexes have eased between 3% to 5%, and the World is now looking very different. Asset Performance since the January FOMC – March 17, 2026. Source: TradingView But what is probably the most overlooked Market development remains the US Dollar, aka Petrodollar that reached 10 months highs last Friday, as record bearish positioning led to swift position closures; hence rebounds.The global Reserve Currency takes the upper hand when it comes down to a squeeze in Oil prices, with countries around the globe forced to hedge, and trade in US Dollars for ever-more expensive Barrels of Crude.This phenomenon also got magnified by the swift pricing out of Fed Cuts, going from 65 bps pre-conflict to the current ~20 bps.We will dive into an intraday chart outlook for all Major FX Currency pairs and provide trading levels for the upcoming FOMC event, as traders are anxiously awaiting for the Fed's own economic projections and impacts from the conflict.Don't forget to check out our recent FOMC analysis right here. Read More:Head and Shoulders in WTI! Is the rally over for Crude Oil? Stock Markets Mixed ahead of FOMCFOMC Meeting Preview: A ‘hawkish hold’ as geopolitical risk & stagflation fears rise, implications for the DXY & Dow JonesPre-FOMC Metals review: Platinum (XPT/USD) outperforms its peers, Copper (XCU/USD) strugglesMetals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateAll FX Majors Charts with the key levels in play for the March FOMCNZD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels NZD/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for NZD/USD:Resistance Levels4H 50-period MA 0.587800.5885 to 0.59 Momentum Pivot0.5930 to 0.5950 (+/- 70 pips) Pivotal ResistanceMarch Resistance 0.60 to 0.60150July 2025 Resistance 0.6060 to 0.6070Support Levels0.5850 December High Pivotal Support0.5770 to 0.5790 Mini-SupportMain Support 0.5720 to 0.5750USD/JPY 4H Chart and technical levels USD/JPY 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for USD/JPY:Resistance Levels158.50 to 159.50 2026 Major resistance159.75 2026 HighsApril 2024 160.00 to 160.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 158.63Dec highs Major Pivot 157.40 to 157.65156.00 Pivotal SupportAUD/USD 4H Chart and technical levels AUD/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Trading Levels for AUD/USD:Resistance levels0.71867 2026 Highs2023 Highs from 0.71 to 0.7150 ResistanceJune 2022 Extremes 0.72 to 0.7230Support levelsDec 2021 Lows 0.6970 to 0.70 Major Pivot0.69 to 0.6935 Early Feb SupportMicro-support 0.6850 (+/- 30 pips)October 2024 Minor support 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)EUR/USD 4H Chart and trading levels EUR/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for EURUSD:Resistance Levels:1.1540 to 1.1570 Momentum Pivot (4H 50-MA and Channel top)Resistance 1.16250 to 1.163501.1650 to 1.17 March ResistanceSupport Levels:1.1475 to 1.15 November SupportAugust 2025 Lows 1.14Channel lows 1.35670USD/CHF 4H Chart and technical levels USD/CHF 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for USD/CHF:Resistance Levels0.7850 2025 lows Pivotal Resistance (Bullish Above – testing)Recent highs 0.793100.7950 Minor Resistance0.80 Next resistanceSupport Levels4H 50-period MA 0.78270.7780 to 0.78 Momentum Pivot0.77 to 0.7725 August 2011 Lows Support0.76 Support zone July 2011GBP/USD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs GBP/USD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView FOMC Levels to watch for GBPUSD:Resistance Levels50-period MA 1.33540 (immediate test)Key pivot 1.34 to 1.34404H 200-period MA 1.3508December Resistance 1.36Support LevelsPivotal Support 1.33 - 1.33401.3120 December SupportEnd 2025 Support at 1.30 Zone (+/- 300 pips)USD/CAD 4H Chart and trading levels – Reaching 2025 highs USD/CAD 4H Chart, March 17, 2026, Source: TradingView Levels to watch for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.3750 Pivotal Resistance (Recent rejection)1.37418 weekly highs1.38 Handle Resistance +/- 150 pipsSupport Levels1.3630 to 1.3660 Mid-Range Pivot1.3550 to 1.3570 Main 2025 Support1.35 Key Psychological Support – Pre-2025 CAD weakening level1.34 Next Main SupportHappy Saint-Patrick and Safe Trades as the FOMC approaches!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Choppy price action amid conflicting drivers: The AUD/USD has turned volatile, with commodity strength providing support while rising risk aversion, driven by stagflation fears from the US–Iran war 2026, has capped gains, leading to a failed breakout above 0.7140.Hawkish RBA outlook offers medium-term support: Expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may deliver more than two rate hikes in 2026, potentially a third, are supporting the Australian dollar as inflation remains above target.Key levels to determine next move: Near-term support sits at 0.7015, with a break above 0.7140 needed to reignite bullish momentum toward 0.7190–0.7266, while a drop below support risks a pullback toward 0.6980–0.6944. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout (finally) above 0.7140, new bullish impulsive up move sequence triggered”, published on 11 March 2026.The price actions of the AUD/USD have been choppy in the past five days as it grappled with conflicting elements that drove short-term movements.Read more: RBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeFirmer commodity prices (excluding precious metals) due to rising oil prices are providing a floor and, in some form, a tailwind on the AUD/USD, as the Australian dollar is often labeled as a “commodity currency” due to the resource-rich Australian economy.On the other hand, the Australian dollar is also sensitive to changes in risk appetite, where a sudden increase in risk aversion in global markets (spurt of risk-off behaviour where equities get sold off) triggers a downside drift in the AUD/USD.Higher oil prices seen in the past week have been linked to stagflation fears, which in turn drives up risk aversion due to the slower growth effect, creating a negative feedback loop in the AUD/USD.The AUD/USD almost erased the earlier rally of 3% from the 9 March 2026 low of 0.6957 to the 11 March 2026 high of 0.7187 and declined by 2.9% to print a recent minor low of 0.6980 on last Friday, 13 March 2026, creating a failed bullish breakout above 0.7140.RBA may not stop at two interest rate hikes in 2026 Fig. 1: Australia overnight indexed swap rates as of 13 Mar 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The Australian central bank, RBA, is expected to enact its second-interest rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) in 2026 later today to bring the policy cash rate higher to 4.1%.The RBA ended its easing cycle in August 2025, and due to higher inflationary expectations, which may lead to the inflation trend in Australia (trimmed mean CPI at 3.4% y/y in January) remaining sticky above the RBA’s long-term inflation rate target of 2%-3%, RBA governor Bullock is likely to paint a hawkish guidance in the press conference to signal further potential rate hikes.Based on the overnight indexed swap (OIS) market in Australia, the spread between the 6-month OIS rate and 1-month OIS rate has widened further, and the 6-month OIS rate was at 4.24% as of Friday, 13 March 2026 (see Fig. 1).Hence, a third-interest rate hike by the RBA in the summer months of 2026 cannot be ruled out, which in turn may offer support for a firmer AUD/USD.Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD - Found support with revival of bullish momentum Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 17 Mar 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 0.7015 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to retest 0.7120 and 0.7140. A daily close above 0.7140 is likely to trigger a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.7190 and 0.7246/7266 in the first step.On the other hand, failure to hold at 0.7015 sees weakness to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6980 and 0.6944 (also the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the short-term bullish bias on AUD/USD The recent minor decline from the 11 March 2026 high to the 13 March 2026 low has managed to stall and find support at the former minor descending channel resistance from the 27 February 2026 high (see Fig. 2).The daily RSI momentum indicator has just staged a rebound right above its key ascending trendline support at the 43 level on Monday, 16 March 2026 (see Fig. 3). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for March 16 Trying to make sense of today's price action was just a headache – and this resumes the latest Market action fairly well.If you were only looking at Oil and the US Dollar, things were at least a bit coherent. After closing at $98 last Friday, Crude opened with a scary gap higher to $102, but has since retracted below $95.Naturally, the Petrodollar followed suit, tumbling 1% on average against most of its FX counterparts. Antipodean currencies loved it the most, with the Kiwi Dollar bouncing after a rough first half of the Month, along with the Aussie Dollar.The reasoning for this is that signs of life in the Strait of Hormuz have emerged, with Iran still leveraging its influence in the most significant region in recent days.A Pakistani tanker crossed the Strait overnight, as the Pakistani government condemned the ongoing American attacks against the Iranian regime.But that wasn't the only tanker crossing, with two Indian LNG ships making their way between the small Hormuz and Larak Kuhi islands, seemingly avoiding the larger Strait.This, along with an Axios report revealing that communications between Washington and Iran have reopened, helped to soothe Market sentiment.Global Equities have all appreciated in a cautious rebound, but the fact that they did not close at their session highs indicates that the path ahead remains uncertain.What is for sure is that Metals are now facing a mix of headwinds, including a seemingly worsening Iran conflict, inflationary fears, and general positioning ahead of this week's huge Central Bank calendar. To learn more about what's coming up this week, go check out our Weekly Markets outlook. Read More:Metals fake-out to the downside; Opportunity? – Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver (XAG/USD) updateA test of confidence for Stocks – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookRBA Preview: Why a 25bps hike to 4.1% is the most likely outcomeStock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – March 16, 2026 The Stock Market heatmap is looking much more mixed than it was at the peak of today's action. Nevertheless, a few sectors have arisen from today's rebound.Tech continues to find relief, along with Transportations and Producer Manufacturing – Still, keep a close eye on what happens to the Financials with the ongoing Private Credit stress narratives.Nvidia just showed a pump-fake at the end of the session, with the CEO Jensen Huang forecasting even larger revenues ahead – Something that Markets have been widely punishing as of late.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, March 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's session marked some easing in the inflationary pressures, as can be seen with risk-assets rebounding, but also dragging Bonds with them while the Dollar and Crude combo struggled.Cryptocurrencies have been bouncing quite stunningly as of late, breaching many of their prior resistances – and the best sign for aficionados is that altcoins are actually leading the move.If Bitcoin extends above $76,000, the technical outlook will be firmly better for Cryptos.Check out our latest Crypto analysis right here!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, March 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs As you can see, today really saw a broad appreciation from Greenback struggles, with Antipodeans really outperforming their peers.Regional hikes and hawkish communications are helping their case, particularly when Oil flows may start to take a turn for the better.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The overnight to tomorrow sessions will be showing the thinnest action ahead of an even larger week ahead.The major event will be happening tonight, with the RBA meeting going through. A 25 bps back to 4.1% is expected – Check out our preview for the event right here.Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets are pricing in a 68% probability for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike, lifting the cash rate to 4.1%.The board needs to move policy past the current "neutral" rate (where interest rate ≈ inflation) to cool the "very hot" economy and suppress climbing prices.A hawkish statement pointing to further hikes could propel AUD/USD toward 0.7200, while a non-committal tone could trigger a drop to 0.6940.An escalating Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz complicates the path forward beyond this weeks meeting.Read More: Weekly Gold (XAU/USD) Forecast: 3% slide to $5000/oz as rate cut bets tumble, FOMC up nextThe meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled for Tuesday March 17, 2026 at 03:30am GMT. The transition from a period of disinflationary hopes in 2025 to a "live" hiking cycle in early 2026 represents one of the most abrupt pivots in recent Australian central banking history.At the center of this volatility is the escalation of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has transformed from a regional skirmish into a systemic threat to global energy security and maritime trade.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for roughly 20% of the world's liquid energy supplies, has introduced a "nightmare scenario" for policymakers: a classic supply-side shock that threatens to unanchor inflation expectations while simultaneously suppressing economic activity.Prior to the conflict in the Middle East though, markets were already leaning toward an RBA rate hike at Tuesday's meeting.What are markets expecting? As things stand market participants and economists are still leaning toward a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike, which would take the cash rate to 4.1%.Market Pricing: Overnight index swaps (OIS) currently imply a 68% probability of a hike, a significant jump from early March expectations.Analyst Consensus: A Bloomberg survey shows 24 out of 33 analysts now forecast a 25bps increase this month.Hawkish Signaling: Recent comments from Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser have labeled the March meeting as "live". Hauser specifically warned that keeping rates too low could fuel a "damaging rise" in inflation expectations.This seems like the most likely outcome for tomorrow as the RBA remains concerned about inflationary pressure.The board are worried that their current strategy isn't doing enough to slow things down. Right now, the interest rate is 3.85%, but since prices are rising by 3.8%, the "real" cost of borrowing is basically nothing. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) In simple terms, when the interest rate and the inflation rate are almost the same, the policy is "neutral", it isn't really helping or hurting. Because almost everyone who wants a job has one (full employment), the economy is running very hot.To actually cool things down and stop prices from climbing, the bank believes they need to move past this neutral point and make borrowing expensive enough to discourage extra spending.Outlook moving forward The March decision may be the start of a renewed tightening phase rather than a one-off move.Further Hikes: Several major banks (ANZ, CBA, NAB, Westpac) now expect a follow-up 25bps hike in May, potentially bringing the terminal rate to 4.35%.Prolonged Target Horizon: In February, the RBA forecast that trimmed mean inflation would not return to the target band until H1 2027 and wouldn't reach the 2.5% midpoint until H1 2028.Economic Slowdown: Tighter policy and energy price headwinds are expected to lower 2026 GDP growth to roughly 1.9%, with unemployment potentially rising toward 4.5% by year-end.Now of course, if the war in the Middle East persists and oil prices remain high the entire outlook may change and inflation may surge.A lot to consider not just for the RBA but global central banks if the Middle East conflict drags on at the current pace.Market reactions and AUD/USD technical dynamics The Australian dollar (AUD) has been highly sensitive to the shifting RBA outlook. Throughout mid-March, the AUD/USD pair has experienced a "tug-of-war" between domestic hawkishness and global risk aversion.While the US dollar (USD) has strengthened as a safe-haven asset due to the Iran conflict, the AUD has been supported by the rising probability of a 4.10% cash rate.Technically, the AUD/USD reached a 45-month high of 0.7189 in the middle of the week prior to the meeting, but has since pulled back to test the 0.7000 handle.If the RBA hikes as expected but adopts a more patient or "wait-and-see" tone for the future, the AUD could see a "sell the fact" reaction, potentially dropping toward the 0.6940 support level.Conversely, a hawkish statement that explicitly points toward a May hike and a 4.35% terminal rate could propel the AUD/USD back toward the 0.7200 mark.US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart, March 16, 2026 Source: TradingView.Com (click image to enlarge). Conclusion The March decision will be a signal of the RBA’s resolve. By choosing to act pre-emptively, the Bank is attempting to avoid the systemic failures of 2022 and 2025, hoping that a firm hand now will prevent the need for a much more destructive tightening cycle later in the year.The path forward remains fraught with geopolitical peril, and uncertainty. Either way volatility appears inevitable.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.