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USD/BRL: BCB calibration limits Real support – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists comment from Brazil’s central bank Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) officials describing March’s 25 bp Selic cut as the start of a calibration process rather than an easing cycle.
WTI Oil rebounds from recent lows as US-Iran tensions revive supply concerns
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $87.10 per barrel on Monday, gaining 3.80% on the day at the time of writing, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East revive concerns about global supply disruptions.
GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3530 as US Dollar eases after recent surge
GBP/USD recovers some ground after opening the week on a lower note, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East as the US seized an Iran-flagged vessel. At the same time, Tehran threatened to halt talks in Pakistan. The pair trades at 1.3525, up 0.13%.
USD/CAD extends six-day slide as Greenback softens and Canada inflation undershoots
USD/CAD edges lower on Monday, trimming earlier gains as shifting geopolitical headlines keep volatility elevated across FX markets, while traders also digested the latest Canadian inflation data. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.3663, easing from an intraday high near 1.3709.
CAD: Softer CPI supports cautious BoC stance – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts note that Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.9% m/m in March, lifting annual inflation to 2.4% y/y, driven mainly by higher gasoline and transportation costs.
Brent: Volatile swings with Iran risk – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s analysts highlight sharp Brent Oil volatility as Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive price swings. They note Brent crude rebounded after a steep Friday selloff, but remains sensitive to ceasefire headlines and shipping probabilities.
GBP/USD: Data-heavy week with political risks – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Pound (GBP) is steady versus the US Dollar (USD) after recovering from an initial reaction to renewed US–Iran tensions.
EUR/USD: Surveys and ECB stance cap upside – ING
ING’s Chris Turner highlights a busy week of European Central Bank speakers before the blackout period, with officials signalling readiness to hike if needed but preferring more time. Markets have removed a 30 April move and see roughly 50% odds of a June hike, which ING expects.
GBP: Political risks and yields weigh – MUFG
MUFG's Lee Hardman highlights that the Pound (GBP) has underperformed alongside the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), leaving GBP/USD and EUR/GBP relatively stable near 1.3500 and 0.8700.
BoJ: Rate hike timing and data in focus – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley notes that Governor Ueda’s earlier hawkish signals have been tempered by more cautious comments at the IMF meetings, leading some forecasters to doubt an April Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike.
Canada: Core inflation trend cools as energy lifts headline – RBC
Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) economist Abbey Xu notes that Canadian headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.4% year-over-year, mainly on higher energy prices linked to conflict in the Middle East and tax distortions.
Gold: Longer-term support from softer Dollar – HSBC
HSBC strategists highlight this year’s sharp volatility, with prices swinging between about USD 4,405 and USD 5,450 per ounce before stabilising near USD 4,800.
ECB: Firmer growth and renewed tightening – BNP Paribas
BNP Paribas expects Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to edge up to 1.6% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, supported by German fiscal measures, higher military spending and AI-related investment.
Iran positively reviewing participation in peace talks with US – Reuters
Quoting a senior Iranian official, Reuters reported on Monday that Iran is positively reviewing its participation in the next round of peace talks with the United States, but no final decision has been made.
EUR/GBP steady on UK political scrutiny, German producer prices
EUR/GBP trades around 0.8700 on Monday, remaining broadly stable on the day at the time of writing as opposing forces between the Euro (EUR) and the Pound Sterling (GBP) keep the cross within a narrow range.
Aluminium: Structural deficit and upside risk persist – ING
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Aluminium prices briefly dropped as Iran pledged to keep the Strait of Hormuz open during a ceasefire, but renewed closure has refocused markets on supply risk.
USD: Rebound on Middle East tensions – MUFG
MUFG’s Lee Hardman notes that the US Dollar (USD) has rebounded at the start of the week, lifting the Dollar Index (DXY) back towards its 200-day moving average near 98.500 after Friday’s low around 97.63.
GBP/JPY holds firm near highs as Oil-driven Yen weakness keeps bulls in control
The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Monday, with GBP/JPY snapping a two-day losing streak as renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices elevated and the Yen on the defensive, given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy.
USD/JPY: Policy risks keep pair near 160 – Rabobank
Rabobank’s Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley highlights that the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains the weakest G10 currency, with USD/JPY trading just below 160 on fears of Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) intervention.
GBP: Stabilisation supports MPC focus on expectations – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect United Kingdom (UK) labour market data for February to show stabilisation, with a slight dip in unemployment and moderate job gains. Wage growth is forecast to slow across key measures, aligning with consensus.
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