The recent price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have started to trade firmer since last Friday, 22 August, with a gain of 1%, on increased hopes that the US Federal Reserve is likely to enact its first interest rate cut of 2025 in the next month's FOMC meeting.Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole Symposium dovish speech has led traders in the Fed Funds futures market to firm up bets that the Fed is likely to cut twice in 2025 (25 basis points each), with a probability of 81% that the Fed Funds rate will be at 3.75%-4.00% on 10 December 2025 FOMC meeting at the time of writing from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, an asset that yields no interest, thereby boosting its appeal and increasing demand, which in turn puts upward pressure on prices.Safe haven bids extend gains for Gold over fears of Fed’s independence In today’s early Asia session, Gold (XAU/USD) shot up by 0.6% to print a current intraday high of US$3,387, a two-week high before paring gains to 0.3% intraday at the time of writing due to safe haven demand as the independence of the US Federal Reserve gets eroded over the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by US President Trump.Let’s decipher the latest technical developments on Gold (XAU/USD) Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 26 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) medium-term trend as of 26 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish bias within a medium-term sideways range configuration with key short-term pivotal support at US$3,352/347, with next intermediate resistances coming in at US$3,402 and US$3,432/3,435 (see Fig. 1).Key elements Since the current all-time high of US$3,500 printed on 22 April 2025, the price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) have evolved into a medium-term sideways range configuration (see Fig. 2).The current prices of Gold (XAU/USD) have traded back above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages since last Friday, August 22, and oscillated within a minor ascending channel in place since the 31 July 2025 low of US$3,268.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has displayed a “higher low” right above the 50 level and has not reached its overbought region (above the 70 level). These observations suggest a potential short-term bullish momentum condition for Gold (XAU/USD).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A break below US$3,347 on Gold (XAU/USD) invalidates the bullish bias for another round of choppy decline towards the lower limit of the medium-term sideways range configuration, exposing the next intermediate supports at US$3,324 and US$3,310 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 25.August trading is coming to its concluding week with FX Markets mostly mean-reverting July moves, Equities and Cryptos still pushing higher (but showing some signs of hesitancy) and US treasury yields not knowing where to go after contradicting economic signs and no further direction from FED Speakers.Hence, the past week saw even further indecisive price action as all participants waited for Fed Chairman Powell to fold under dovish pressure after persistent threats from the Trump Administration.The US Dollar suffered greatly on Friday as Participants overestimated his comments, but looking back (and as mentioned in our Friday market recap), his wording was a bit more balanced than what markets interpreted, leading to a consequent rebound in the US Dollar today.Equities, Forex, and Cryptos (particularly) have failed to pursue their gains against the US Dollar, leading only US Oil to gain in today's session.Ethereum's saturday all-time highs were not enough to pull Crypto markets higher, let's see what digital assets aficionados do from here. Bitcoin is currently trading just a bit below Friday's pre-spike levels. Read More: USDCHF in focus as the pair oscillates above the 0.80 markCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptocurrencies had already struggled in today's open but are seeing some even stronger selling flows as we speak.Other assets have also given up some of their Friday gains. US Oil on the other hand has rebounded from a technical double-top, mentioned in our most recent analysis (you can access it to get your trading levels).A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 25 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar is officially the winner of the session after a more mixed picture during most parts of the Monday trading, with most Majors pulling back against the greenback.The Swiss franc is on the other side of the board too, giving up 75% of its Friday's gains, with the FX sentiment difficult to comprehend.FX Markets will be awaiting for more data and have stayed mostly rangebound.A look at Economic data releasing in tomorrow's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The session is not entirely over with FED's Williams (very influential) appearing at a Keynote in Mexico. We don't know yet if he will be delivering economic remarks.Tomorrow, Central bank speakers will also be in focus with BoE's Mann speaking at noon (shouldn't be too big of a mover but may influence the Pound), and most importantly for the CAD, Bank of Canada's Governor Macklem delivering remarks at 2:45 P.M.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian dollar has steadied on Monday after posting sparkling gains of 1.1% on Friday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6503, up 0.18% on the day.Powell sends US dollar sharply lowerThe US dollar retreated against all the major currencies on Friday, including the Australian dollar. This followed Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish speech at a meeting of central bankers' in Jackson Hole.Powell discussed the two key concerns for the Fed - inflation and employment. He noted that upside risk to inflation due to tariffs and expressed concern about the labor market, saying that "downside risks to employment are rising" and such risks could materialize quickly. The markets seized on Powell's dovish comments about the employment picture, which bumped up expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September to around 85%. As well, a second cut before the end of the year is a strong possibility.The inflation and employment reports in the first week of September could be significant factors in the Fed's rate path in the fourth quarter. It remains to be seen how many times the Fed will lower rates before year's end but what is clear is that the prolonged wait-and-see stance is about to end.Will RBA minutes signal another rate cut? The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates by a quarter-point to 3.60% at the August 12 meeting. Investing will be combing through the minutes of that meeting on Tuesday.With inflation down to 2.1% in the second quarter, the decision to lower rates was a no-brainer. However, the Reserve Bank shocked the markets in July when it held rates rather than cutting, saying it needed to see additional inflation data.The central bank still remains very concerned about inflation, even though it downgraded it growth forecast at the August meeting to 1.7% from 2.1%. If the minutes focus on the country's weak growth, this could be a sign of further rate cuts and the Australian dollar could reverse its recent gains.AUD/USD Technical 0.6524 is a weak resistance line. Next, there is resistance at 0.6555There is support at 0.6469 and 0.6438 AUDUSD 1-Day Chart, August 25, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Stocks continue to hold up after last week’s dovish interpretation of Powell’s remarks, with Friday’s rally still leaving US indices near their recent highs. While the current open is slightly lower than the Friday peak, the Dow Jones is still trading above its previous all-time highs, showing a picture of relative strength as Participants await further news.The Nasdaq is attempting to re-enter its upward channel and the S&P 500 has formed a short-timeframe double top, leaving the immediate bullish hand to the Dow Jones, the oldest of all US Indices.With earnings season close to finishing (Nvidia earnings are approaching, releasing Wednesday) and macro data delivering mixed signals, investors appear cautious on Tech but not willing to aggressively fade the latest strength due to the Dovish interpretation of Powell's Friday speech. The coming sessions may determine whether the ongoing small selling develops into a broader retracement or simply a consolidation before another push higher.Let's take a look at an Intraday chart for the Dow Jones. Read More: Ethereum and cryptocurrency markets send worrying signs despite last Friday's spikeDow Jones 4H Chart and technical levels Dow Jones 4H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones broke new record highs on Friday, marking the current All-time highs at 45,757 (both CFD and actual index).However, the index just attained the highs of its intermediate upward channel, leading to the current profit-taking.Look for a break-retest at the previous ATH (45,283) for further bullish continuation.Bears will want to see a further correction from there to regain the immediate hand.Technical levels for the Dow Jones:Resistance LevelsAll-time high resistance 45,757ATH Resistance Zone 45,700 (+/- 150 pts)1.618 Fibonacci-Extension 46,260Support LevelsPrevious ATH resistance zone, now pivot 45,00045,283 previous ATH44,000 Main Support ZoneSafe trades and succesful trading week! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Cryptos have all shined on Friday after Powell's speech that largely got interpreted as dovish – One of my thesis was that these moves may have been slightly over-extended compared to what was actually said.Markets tend to act erratically with algorithmic movements and stops triggering leading to extreme moves that tend to be corrected after some proof-reading by some of the largest participants.The US Equities market is still around its Friday highs with the Dow Jones futures above their previous highs (down small on the pre-open session) indicating no strong correction from the recent upside.On the other hand, cryptos are looking a bit more skeptical – Ethereum broke a new record on Saturday ($4,956) before retracting lower, currently down 4% on the session.Bitcoin also retested $117,000 and quickly reversed back to around the $111,000 handle, retesting its support zone that will have to hold to avoid a more bearish short-term outlook.You can access our latest analysis for BTC right here to get your levels for upcoming trading. Read More: Markets Weekly Outlook - Fed Chair Pivot Ignites Rally Ahead of US PCE and Japanese Inflation DataA look at the Cryptocurrency market cap Crypto Market Cap, August 25, 2025 – TradingView Despite the new record in ETH, the rest of the market hasn't followed through with the Market cap correcting around 8% since.The chart is still far from bearish but this will have to be monitored to check if the bullish momentum inverts further.Crypto Market reversed from Friday gains Crypto Market overview, August 25, 2025 – Source: Finviz The picture is red, but most cryptos are still fairly close to their highs, I would suggest to look at risk-on/risk-off assets demand to assess if the mood gets better from here or not.Ethereum Daily and intraday chartsEthereum Daily Chart Ethereum Daily Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView If the current picture stays like this, a double top combined with a bearish divergence (new highs in price ≠ new highs in RSI) could bring some decent reasons for Participants to take profit around here.Nonetheless, as always in Financial markets, if the price action was that bearish, prices would be much lower already.But these signs are not to be taken lightly and have to be monitored closely for upcoming trading.Ethereum 4H Chart Ethereum 4H Chart, August 25, 2025 – Source: TradingView Ethereum has retracted from its recent highs (ETH CFD not showing but actual coin traded to $4,956 highs, currently around $4,640) which allowed overbought momentum to cool down on shorter timeframes.As long as prices hold above the $4,000 to $4,095 (Dec 2024) pivot zone, the price action remains more bullish than bearish – but do keep an eye on the potential double top mentioned on the daily timeframe.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:$4,200 consolidation Zone (minor support)$4,000 to $4,095 Main Pivot$3,500 Main Support ZoneResistance Levels:$4,950 Current new All-time highs$4,700 to $4,950 All-time high resistance zonePotential main resistance $5,230 Fibonacci extension.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Market is going wild from Powell's speech, interpreted as largely dovish!In case you missed it, you can access the text and a review of his live speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on this page: Access Jerome Powell's full speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium Jerome Powell just concluded his nuch-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole economic conference and the reactions are strong.Holding a very nuanced approach, as we're used to from Powell, Markets still interpreted some of his wording as a slightly dovish opening.These lines on employment are a good example:"Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment."The more balanced approach is a shift from his July FOMC speech where he only held a few mentions of downside risks to employment.An amazing recap of Powell's speech and the changes to his wording can be found here if you look for more details.Let's dive right in a few key charts pointing to the strong reactions following the speech.Market reactions – US Dollar selling hard allowing everything else to jump higherDollar Index 4H Chart – The US Dollar gets slammed US Dollar 4H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Crypto Market goes to the moon Crypto Market overview, August 22, 2025 – Source: Finviz BTC recovers fast – Bitcoin 1H Chart Bitcoin 1H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView You can access our latest Bitcoin analysis right here.Ethereum goes to retest its recent highs up 11%! – ETH 4H Chart Ethereum 4H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold sees some relief – Currently up 1% Gold 4H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones rallies to new All-time Highs Dow Jones 4H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView FX pairs go wild from the US Dollar selloff Forex Market overview, August 22, 2025 – Source: Finviz Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Germany’s GDP fell 0.3% q/q in Q2 2025 (0.2 pp below the flash); y/y: –0.2% unadjusted, +0.2% calendar-adjusted. Previous quarters: +0.3% (Q1 2025), +0.2% (Q4 2024). Destatis’ annual revision altered earlier quarters by –0.7 to +0.6 pp.Demand & supply: consumption edged up (total +0.3% q/q; households +0.1%, government +0.8%), but investment –1.4% and negative net exports (exports –0.1%, imports +1.6%) dragged growth. By sector: construction –3.7%, manufacturing –0.3%, IT & business services +0.5%.Labour, incomes & peers: employment ~46m (stable), productivity/hour +0.3% y/y, wages +4.8%. Consumption rose faster than income (+3.7% vs +2.5%), cutting the saving rate to 9.7%. Germany –0.3% q/q vs EU +0.2% (y/y, cal-adj: Germany +0.2% vs EU +1.5%). Final Destatis data show that in Q2 2025 the German economy contracted by 0.3% q/q (seasonally and calendar adjusted). That’s 0.2 pp worse than the flash estimate and a clear reversal after gains at the turn of the year (+0.3% in Q1 2025 and +0.2% in Q4 2024). Year over year, the picture is mixed: –0.2% y/y in constant prices without calendar adjustment and +0.2% y/y with it. Germany GDP, source: Destatis Demand: consumption holds up, investment disappoints, net exports drag On the demand side, the only bright spot was consumption. Total consumption rose 0.3% q/q, of which household spending increased just 0.1% (below expectations) and government consumption rose 0.8%. That wasn’t enough to offset pronounced weakness in gross fixed capital formation: investment fell 1.4% q/q, including machinery and equipment –1.9% and construction –2.1%.Foreign trade also weighed on growth: exports slipped 0.1% (goods –0.6%, services +1.4%), while imports rose 1.6%, implying a negative net export contribution to GDP.In y/y terms, private demand looks better: consumption +1.5% (households +1.2%, mainly on food; services grew weakly), while government consumption rose 2.1%. Against that backdrop, investment declined 1.9% y/y (machinery –3.9%, construction –2.9%). External trade was weak: exports –2.4% y/y (goods –3.6%, services +1.8%) alongside imports +3.3% y/y (goods +4.7%, services +0.3%).Supply side: construction and manufacturing down, tech services up On the supply side, gross value added fell 0.2% q/q. The steepest drop was in construction (–3.7%), partly unwinding a strong Q1. Manufacturing –0.3%, with declines in most branches; the automotive and transport segment was a notable exception. Trade–transport–accommodation–food services recorded –0.6%, while public services, education and health were slightly positive (+0.1%). Modern sectors stood out: IT and communications and business services +0.5%.Compared with a year earlier, total GVA was down 0.7%, with industry –2.2%, construction –6.9% and services stagnating (0.0%).Labour market and productivity: stable employment, mixed efficiency Employment held around 46 million people (virtually unchanged y/y). Hours worked fell 0.5% y/y, which, together with slight GDP growth, translated into labour productivity per hour up 0.3% y/y, but productivity per person down 0.2% y/y. In other words: firms worked fewer hours, were a bit more efficient per hour, but saw no improvement per job. Germany unemployment change, source: tradingeconomics.com Incomes, wages and savings: consumption outpaces income At current prices GDP rose 2.7% y/y, and gross national income 3.1%. Wages were up 4.8% (average gross wages +4.3%, net +3.6%), while property and entrepreneurial income fell 3.5%. Notably, consumption grew faster than income (+3.7% vs +2.5%), lowering the saving rate to 9.7% from 10.8% a year earlier. This signals that households are sustaining spending partly by drawing down buffers.Versus peers: Germany at the back of the European pack Quarter on quarter, Germany –0.3% lags clearly behind the EU overall (+0.2%). Among large economies: Spain +0.7%, France +0.3%, Italy –0.1%; outside Europe, the US +0.7%. On an annual (calendar-adjusted) basis Germany +0.2% y/y versus EU +1.5% y/y—the divergence persists.Revisions: adjustments up and down reaching back to 2008 Destatis conducted its annual revision of the time series from 2021, with quarterly changes ranging from –0.7 to +0.6 pp. Smaller tweaks reached back to data from 2008, including improved coverage of multinational groups’ activity. Technically, this enhances historical comparability, though the current cyclical picture—after the Q2 downgrade—is weaker.Markets reaction: DAX and EURUSD DAX index and 10-year yield german bonds, daily interval, source:TradingView The DAX index remains in a medium-term upward trend. However, for the past few months it has been moving within a consolidation range between 23500 and 24600 points. A key condition for the continuation of the rally is a breakout above the upper boundary of this range, which could pave the way for further gains. The yield on 10-year German government bonds currently stands at 2.73%, reflecting stability in the debt market.In the currency market, the EURUSD is trading at 1.1713, testing the upper boundary of the corrective pullback. The weakening of the dollar is linked to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, which was interpreted as supportive of upcoming interest rate cuts in the United States. A sustained breakout above 1.1720 could signal a new upward impulse in the main currency pair. EURUSD, daily interval, source: TradingView Takeaways: a technical setback and narrowing sources of growth The economy entered H2 2025 with weak momentum: investment and exports remain headwinds, while consumption—though positive—is only marginally better than stagnation. On the supply side, construction and much of manufacturing are a drag, whereas IT and business services are rare islands of growth. A stable labour market limits the downturn, but the falling saving rate suggests the consumption boost may have limited durability.Q2 brings a technical setback and confirms that a durable recovery will require unlocking investment and improving export competitiveness—otherwise Germany will continue to lag the EU average. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Jerome Powell is giving a much-anticipated speech at the key Jackson Hole Symposium, known to generate volatility for FX, Equity and all-types of Markets.He is speaking live right here.You can access the text right here.A market-reaction overlook will shortly be available on MarketPulse, stay connected!Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This week has been rough for risk assets, particularly tech. The Nasdaq has entered a correction phase, and the one for Cryptocurrencies is even steeper.Markets have been awaiting further news from Jerome Powell concerning any type of rate cuts, as seen in the signs of hesitancy in Equities and Crypto. He is about to speak in a few minutes at the Jackson Hole Symposium.You can access the speech right here.Digital assets have always been volatile, a given due to their youth compared to other asset classes:After stellar July and August trading, which took Bitcoin to a retest of its all-time highs and, more surprisingly, Ethereum from $2,500 on July 1st to $4,790 in less than a month and a half of trading, the strong upmoves are getting met with sharp reversals.Bitcoin has been downtrending since attaining a new record High of $124,200 on August 14th.Let’s examine a multi-timeframe analysis of the biggest crypto to spot what's next.Bitcoin Daily Chart Bitcoin Daily Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is regaining its previous all-time high region for the second time in the month around $112,000 – A key support zone!Retesting previous record highs is a healthy process in upward trending products, as it was seen in Equities for example in April with the Trump tariffs fear-flows.On the other hand, bulls will want to make sure they do not breach the $110,000 to $112,000 support zone to avoid a more bearish longer-term outlook.Before breaching the $110,000 handle, we mentioned the $100,000 landmark being the key for the general crypto market health barometer – Keep these levels in check.Let's take a closer look.Bitcoin 4H Chart Bitcoin 4H Chart, August 22, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking closer shows a mixed picture for the current price action –The Daily RSI momentum starts to enter the bearish territory, while the 4H RSI starts to rebound and even shows a bullish divergence.On the other hand, 4H period Moving averages are starting to see a bearish cross (50 MA crossing the 200 from above) – Conflicting signs!A weekly close below the $110,000 handle would give more probability for a bearish continuation.Holding between $110,000 to $112,000 points to further consolidation, while staying above $112,000 would show the most bullish case of a longer run break-retest to the upper side, signalling further bullish continuation.A descending wedge in also forming on the 4H Chart– A typically bullish sign, however everything will depend on sentiment post-Powell's speech.Levels to watch for BTC trading:Support Levels:$110,000 to $112,000 previous ATH support zone$106,000 Minor support$100,000 Main support at psychological levelResistance Levels:$115,000 to $117,000 Pivot ZoneMajor Resistance $122,000 to $124,500Current all-time high $124,596Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground on Friday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 148.68. Earlier, USD/JPY hit 148.77, its highest level since August 1.Japan's core CPI falls to 3.1%Japan's core CPI, which excludes fresh food, dropped to 3.1% y/y in July, down from 3.3% and just above the market estimate of 3.0%. Headline CPI also declined to 3.1% from 3.3%, as rice inflation, which has skyrocketed, eased slightly.Headline inflation has been above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for 40 consecutive months but the central bank remains hesitant to raise rates, arguing that it needs more evidence that domestic demand and wages will keep underlying inflation sustainable at around 2%. The BoJ meets next on September 19 and the markets widely expect another hold. The BoJ has a habit of catching the markets off guard and a rate hike is certainly a possibiity in September or October. The BoJ upgraded its inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 at the July meeting from 2.2% to 2.7%, which supports the case for a rate hike in the coming months.Powell to speak at Jackson HoleCentral bankers are meeting up in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The star of the show will be Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who will deliver a speech later today. The markets have priced in a rate cut at next month's Fed meeting and are hoping for some confirmation from Powell.The Fed is caught between a rock and a hard place as it charts a rate path. Inflation is still high, which would support maintaining rates, but the labor market is deteriorating, which supports the case to lower rates and boost economic activity.Should the Fed's primary focus be inflation or employment? There is a split among members, which was reflected in the rare split vote at the July meeting. The majority of the FOMC members, which voted to hold rates, judged the upside risk of inflation to be the primary concern, while the two members who voted to lower rates were most concerned about softening employment. The Fed meets next month and is widely expected to deliver its first rate cut since December 2024.USD/JPY Technical USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 148.44 and is testing 148.61148.24 and 148.07 are the next support levels USD/JPY 1-Day Chart, Aug. 22, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japan Inflation Hits 8-Month Low Most Read: Nikkei 225 Technical: A potential bullish reversal looms after a 4% decline as market breadth improves with earnings upgradeAsian stocks stayed mostly steady on Friday as traders waited for a key speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium this weekend, hoping for clues about future monetary policy.MSCI's broad Asia-Pacific index outside Japan fell 0.1% after early gains, reducing its monthly rise to 1.3%. Meanwhile, China's blue-chip CSI 300 index jumped 1.8%, marking its third straight day of gains. Tech stocks led the rally after DeepSeek upgraded its V3 AI model and reports that Nvidia asked Foxconn to pause work on the H20 AI chip, boosting Chinese competitors. China's tech-heavy STAR 50 index surged nearly 8%.Japan's Nikkei 225 fluctuated between gains and losses, ending down 0.1%.In Japan, core consumer prices slowed for the second month in July but remained above the central bank's 2% target, fueling expectations of a future rate hike. The headline inflation rate dropped to 3.1% in July 2025, down from 3.3% in June, the lowest level since November 2024. Electricity prices fell for the first time since April 2024 (-0.7% compared to a 5.5% rise before), while gas prices stayed the same after rising 2.7% previously.However, this didn’t help the yen, which was set to drop 1% for the week. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is also scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole this weekend.German Economy Shrinks Germany's economy shrank by 0.3% in Q2 2025, worse than the earlier estimate of a 0.1% drop, reversing the 0.3% growth from the previous quarter. This was the biggest quarterly decline since Q2 2024, mainly due to a 1.4% drop in fixed capital investment, with weaker spending on construction, machinery, equipment, and vehicles.Trade also hurt growth, as exports fell by 0.1% (down from 2.5% growth) due to higher U.S. tariffs, while imports rose by 1.6%. Private consumption slowed significantly to 0.1% (from 0.6%), though government spending rebounded by 0.8% (from a 0.3% decline). Inventory changes added positively to growth.By sector, output declined in manufacturing, construction, trade, transport, hospitality, and financial services. On a yearly basis, the economy grew 0.2%, slightly below the 0.3% growth in Q1, marking the second straight quarter of annual growth.European Open - All Eyes on Jackson Hole European stocks edged higher on Friday, with the STOXX 600 index up 0.2%, heading for its third straight weekly gain. Most regional markets were also positive, including Germany's DAX, which rose 0.1% after a slow start.The European Union announced plans to push for reduced U.S. tariffs on certain sectors, including retroactive lower tariffs on car exports from August 1, and continued efforts for preferential tariffs on wine and spirits. This helped boost automobile stocks by 0.6%.UBS maintained a "neutral" stance on eurozone equities, citing short-term economic uncertainty, and cut its earnings growth forecast for the region this year to -3% from 0%. Despite this, European companies are expected to report 4.6% earnings growth for Q2, down from the 9.1% initially forecast before U.S. tariffs were announced in February.In the chemicals sector, AkzoNobel shares jumped 5.2% after activist investor Cevian Capital acquired a 3% stake. Standard Chartered shares rose 3.5% following a favorable ruling from the U.S. Department of Justice in a long-standing civil case.Defence companies Renk Group and Hensoldt saw gains of 1.7% and 3.3%, respectively, after Citigroup upgraded their ratings from "sell" to "neutral."On the FX front, The euro and the British pound hit their lowest levels since early August, both down 0.1%, with the euro at $1.1597 and the pound at $1.3408.Meanwhile, the dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.1% to 98.71, heading for a 0.9% weekly gain and breaking a two-week losing streak. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen weakened to 148.56 per dollar, set for a 0.9% drop this week.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices held steady on Friday as hopes for a quick peace deal between Russia and Ukraine faded, setting the stage for the first weekly gain in three weeks.Brent crude fell 17 cents (0.25%) to $67.50 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 13 cents (0.2%) to $63.39.Both benchmarks rose over 1% in the previous session, with Brent up 2.8% and WTI up 1% for the week so far.Gold prices fell on Friday as the stronger dollar weighed on the market. Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $3,326.35 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery also declined 0.4% to $3,368.80.For more on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes $3383/oz After Bullish Pennant Breakout. Will Fed Chair Powell Add Fuel to the Rally?Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, a quiet day for the US with the biggest data release coming from Canada in the form of retail sales data.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to give a keynote speech today at 16:00 CET. He is likely to stick to a cautious approach, leaving the Fed's options open for September. His guidance will likely align with the Fed's June projections, which showed most members expecting two rate cuts this year.Powell may tie the Fed's September decision to upcoming data, including the jobs report on September 5 and the inflation report (CPI) on September 11. While his cautious tone might disappoint those hoping for strong support for a September rate cut, he will likely address the sharp downward revisions to job data from May and June. Despite this, the market is still likely to see a 50% or higher chance of a rate cut in September. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 Index From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 finally breached the all-time highs and continues to advance.US Indexes have been struggling but the FTSE has remained resilient.The period-14 RSI continues to fall short of overbought territory , each time a pullback before the next leg higher.There is a small triangle pattern in play on the two-hour chart which could lead to a break to the downside. So far however, such moves have been met by significant buying pressure.A break of the triangle pattern in either direction could lead to a potential 60 point move.FTSE 100 Two-Hour Chart, August 22, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have remained choppy this week with the precious metal remaining in the range between $3300-$3350/oz for the majority of the week. Two key levels which for now it appears buyers and sellers are defending ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Geopolitical developments.Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Mixed Signals as Bearish Potential Grows, $108600 May Hold the KeyStrong US PMI Data Fails to Inspire Breakout A strong PMI release may have just aided Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 55.4 in August 2025, up from 55.1 in July, showing growth for the 31st straight month, according to flash estimates.This was also the fastest growth seen this year. The services sector continued to grow strongly, though activity slightly slowed from July’s peak (55.4 vs 55.7). Meanwhile, manufacturing bounced back, with the PMI rising to 53.3 from 49.8 in July, its highest level since May 2022.Hiring picked up, with job creation hitting one of the fastest rates in three years. Businesses also reported the biggest backlog of unfinished work since May 2022.Now all of this sounds like a solid economy and looking at the data more closely we see a few other interesting points.Most Read: ISM manufacturing PMIs lift US stocks from another bearish open – intraday levels for Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NasdaqS&P Global’s Chris Williamson noted the survey also showed mounting inflation pressures. Businesses are increasingly passing tariff-related costs through to consumers, and the PMI price indices are now running at their highest levels in three years. Selling prices for goods and services have moved higher, suggesting that consumer inflation will “rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months.The PMI results create more uncertainty for the Fed. Instead of supporting the idea of immediate rate cuts, the data suggest the economy is closer to conditions that typically lead to rate hikes.“With increased business activity, hiring, and rising prices shown in the survey, the PMI data lean more toward rate hikes than cuts,” Williamson explained.The move did lead to an immediate bounce for the US Dollar Index which has since continued its advance. However as has been the case with Gold of late, the precious metal saw an immediate drop but has since recovered to a near daily high at $3345/oz.This highlights the indecision in Gold at the moment with market participants likely keeping an eye on the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell.Jackson Hole and Gold Prices Moving Forward Heading into Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow Gold appears in desperate need of a catalyst.The Russia-Ukraine situation has a lot of variables to contend with before an actual peace deal may be agreed. Thus geopolitical risk premium is likely to remain in play in the near-term.This leaves monetary policy, where like we discussed above today's PMI data has created more uncertainty for the Fed. The FED minutes also did not really provide anything new to the equation so will there be sparks tomorrow or will the market reaction be muted?Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis paints a nice picture for bulls though with a break of a bullish pennant pattern which was in play.If you believe the old trading adage ‘technicals hint at what's to come from the fundamentals’ then the question is, are we getting a hint of a dovish speech by Fed Chair Powell tomorrow?From a technical standpoint, Gold has broken the bullish pennant on the four-hour chart. A pullback and retest occurred today so Gold is on its way toward a potential target of $3383/oz.There is significant resistance just ahead which Gold needs to overcome. The 50 and 100-day MA rest at 3343 and 3348 respectively and at this stage are providing a significant hurdle.Supporting a bullish narrative is the period-14 RSI remains above the 50 level which hints that the momentum remains bullish.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, August 21, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Long on Gold with 70% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-long suggests that Gold prices could continue to slide in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US stock open was another one to the downside this morning, with all major indices initially following a break-retest pattern off the late rally seen into yesterday’s close. Current session lows show the Nasdaq (CFD) at 23,091, the S&P 500 (CFD) at 6,360, and today’s focus, the Dow Jones (CFD), at 44,573.However, the 9:45 ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised firmly to the upside, printing 53.3 against expectations of 49.5, suggesting a more resilient industrial backdrop. In addition, Existing Home Sales came in at 4.01M versus the 3.92M expected, adding another layer of support to the broader economic outlook for the session.With this context in mind, let’s now turn to some intraday chart analysis and levels for all Major US indices, starting with the Dow Jones, then the S&P 500 before finishing with the Nasdaq. Read More: US Oil (WTI) consolidates at support but looks for direction – rangebound trading levelsDow Jones intraday chart and levels Dow Jones 2H Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The morning session was a bit rough for the Dow, taking the Industrial index to a retest of the 44,500 Pivot Zone before the upbeat ISM data took the index back higher.With the morning rebound happening on the short-trend upward channel's lower bound, further upside could be expected.Bulls will however have to break above the 50-period Moving average acting as immediate resistance.RSI momentum is closer to neutral – Let's see how the Jackson Hole Conference (and Powell's speech at 10:00 A.M. tomorrow) will influence sentiment.Levels of interest for Dow Jones Trading:Resistance Levelssession highs 44,887 (2H MA 50 in confluence)All-time high resistance zone 45,000Current All-time Highs 45,283Support Levelscurrent session lows 44,570 (confluence with lower bound of channel)44,400 to 44,500 Pivot and 2H MA 20044,000 Main Support ZoneS&P 500 intraday chart and levels S&P 500 2H Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 intraday chart looks more bearish than the Dow, with prices having already broken out of the May upward Channel, a downward trendline acting as resistance and RSI holding lower.Immediate momentum seems to be on hold however.Levels of interest for S&P 500 Trading:Resistance Levelssession highs 6,390 (2H MA 200 in confluence)End-July Top now Pivot 6,420 to 6,430All-time high resistance zone 6,450 to 6,490Current All-time Highs 6,489Support LevelsMain support 6,340 +/- 5ptsShort-term Key Support just below 6,300NFP Lows 6,216Nasdaq 2H intraday chart and levels Nasdaq 2H Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq trades a bit more erratically than its brothers, but one thing is sure:Bears have managed to break out of the May upward channel and bulls will have to fight to avoid this being a longer-run trend.The latest break-retest in yesterday's session shows a more bleak outlook for the tech-focused index, but everything will confirm with Powell's speech tomorrow and future data in the waiting of the September Meeting.Levels to watch for the Nasdaq:Resistance LevelsCurrent All-time Highs 23,98623,500 Support turned resistanceBroken upward Channel lows 23,350Support Levels23,000 Key momentum Pivot22,700 support at NFP lowsEarly 2025 ATH at 22,229Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The British pound is down for a fourth straight day and has dropped 0.9% this week. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3432, down 0.16% on the day.The UK was scheduled to release July retail sales on Friday, with a market estimate of 0.4%, but that has been delayed until September 5.UK PMIs: services accelerates, manufacturing weakensUK PMIs were a mixed bag in August. The Services PMI improved to 53.6, up from 51.8 in July and above the market estimate of 51.8. Business activity rose for a fourth straight month and hit its fastest pace in a year. There was an increase in new orders and business confidence rose on expectations that consumer demand will improve.The manufacturing sector continues to struggle and the contraction worsened in August. The PMI fell to 47.3 in August from 48.0 in July. New orders decreased and employment losses deepened as the uncertainty over US tariffs has resulted in subdued global demand. The silver lining was that manufacturers' optimism improved. Fed minutes points to splitThe Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed didn't surprise anyone by maintaining rates but the meeting made headlines when two FOMC members voted against the majority in favor of a rate cut. This was the first time in over 30 years that more than one member has voted against a rate decision.The minutes noted the differing views on the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. The economy faces an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment, complicating rate decisions. At the meeting, the majority judged higher inflation as the greater risk while the minority believed that the deterioration in the labour market was the greater risk.The Fed is expected to lower rates in September for the first time since December 2024, with an 80% probability of a quarter-point cut according to CME's FedWatch.GBP/USD Technical GBPUSD is testing support at 1.3431. Below, there is support at 1.3416There is resistance at 1.3457 and 1.3472 GBPUSD 4-Hour Chart, Aug. 21, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is an update to the piece released on Monday:US Oil breaks out as bearish catalysts fade US Oil has indeed broken out of its downward trend amid progress in Ukraine-Russia talks, bolstering prospects from bulls of a lesser supply.However, with Markets awaiting for an actual solution to the conflict, supplemented by anticipation for more economic talks from the FED and other Central Banks at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium, the mood looks to be for consolidation.Despite rumours of a ceasefire in the Middle East, we haven't seen much progress from that side also; Iran also contributes to elevate Supply.This morning's candle shows a failed attempt to trade higher with ongoing trading still trying to find direction.All things considered, rangebound markets should dominate technicals until more news are published, so let's discover what the current range is and how to exploit it the best.And don't forget to stay in touch with the latest news on ceasefires and everything else on Marketpulse!US Oil Technical AnalysisUS Oil Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView We are on the 7th consecutive day of consolidation in the Commodity.The price action does seem to have found technical support however, with prices failing to hold the downward trendline from the end of July and the Daily RSI making higher lows.Additionally, the key Daily Moving Averages are holding $3 higher from the price action (for example, the 50-Day MA is at $67.30).Higher timeframe MAs tend to act as magnets in rangebound trading, but bulls will first have to show more strength.Let's have a closer look.US Oil 4H Chart US Oil 4H Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView We see further detail of the ongoing consolidation held between $62.20 lows to $64.25 highs.Buyers are trying to build momentum at an ongoing mini-upward trendline – with the 4H 50-period MA acting as immediate support (63.40), it will be essential to spot if they manage to provide more direction.A failure to hold the trendline and Moving average would point to more consolidation.Level to place on your WTI Charts:Resistance Levels$64 to $64.20 consolidation highs$66 to $67 Mid-range levelhigh range resistance $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAsSupport Levels$62.00 to $62.50 consolidation supportWednesday lows $62.19 (current double bottom)$60.5 Low of May Range$55 to $57 2025 lows Main supportUS Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, August 21, 2025 – Source: TradingView Looking even closer to the 1H timeframe, we spot how the extremes of the consolidation have acted as bounds for the rangebound trading.The $64 to $64.20 level is acting as Resistance and the $62 to $62.50 is acting as Consolidation Support.Any breakout from there would lead to higher chances of breakouts, with prolonged consolidation usually leading to built positioning at current levels, leading to precipitated covering.A break above $64.85 would magnify the odds of a July range re-integration (between $65 to $70.5.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Japanese yen is slightly lower on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 147.87, up 0.39% on the day.Japan's inflation expected to continue slowingJapan releases the July inflation report on Friday. The markets will be especially interested in the core rate, which is expected to ease to 3.0% y/y, from 3.3% in June. Core CPI includes energy but excludes fresh foodCore CPI has remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target for over three years but the central bank has been slow to raise interest rates. BoJ Governor Ueda has said that the Bank will not raise rates until underlying inflation, which is generated by domestic demand and wages, is sustainably at 2%. The BoJ raised rates to 0.5% in January but took its foot off the rate-hike pedal when Donald Trump became President and imposed a hard-hitting tariff policy which shook up the financial markets. Now that the US and Japan have reached a trade agreement and greatly reduced the uncertainty over tariffs, a major obstacle to raising rates has been removed.Fed minutes point to dissensionThe Federal Reserve released the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday. The Fed's decision at the meeting to maintain rates was widely expected but the meeting made headlines when two FOMC members went against the majority and voted for a rate cut. This was the first time in over 30 years that more than one member voted against a rate decision.The minutes reflected this dissension, noting the differing views on the Fed's dual mandate of inflation and employment. The economy faces an upside risk to inflation and a downside risk to employment, complicating rate decisions. At the meeting, the majority judged higher inflation as the greater risk while the minority believed that the deterioration in the labour market was the greater risk.The Fed is widely expected to lower rates in September, after holding rates since December 2024.USD/JPY USD/JPY has pushed above resistance at 147.33 and is testing 147.79 Above, there is resistance at 148.28146.84 and 146.38 are providing support USDJPY 1-Day Chart, Aug. 21, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This is a follow-up analysis and update of our prior report, Nasdaq 100 Technical: Eyeing a new fresh all-time high, supported by momentum and flattening US Treasury yield curve, published on 7 August 2025.The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 futures) have staged the expected bullish move, hit the first medium-term resistance level of 23,890, and printed a fresh all-time high of 23,986 on last Wednesday, 13 August. Thereafter, it staged a decline of -4.2% over five trading sessions to record an intraday low of 22,970 on Wednesday, 20 August, due to overvaluation risk as the Nasdaq 100 has surged the most by 38% among the benchmark US stock indices since 7 April, ex-post US “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement.In addition, the fear of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) bubble has resurfaced, where OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned of an AI bubble last week, adding that some AI start-ups with “three people and an idea” have received funding at such high valuations.Fundamental and technical signals suggest the Nasdaq 100’s major uptrend remains intact, with the latest pullback viewed as a minor correction rather than the start of a broader downtrend.AI bubble fears overblown Fig. 1: Nasdaq 100 12-month forward EPS growth & PE Ratio as of 20 Aug 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) The 12-month forward earnings per share (EPS) growth of the Nasdaq 100 have only just started to improve in the past three months, after it dropped from 30.8% y/y recorded in May 2024 to 12.5% y/y in May 2025, before it rebounded to 14.6% y/y in August (see Fig. 1).Even though the valuation of the Nasdaq 100, measured by the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, has increased to 27.15 in August after the 38% rally ex-post US “Liberation Day, its forward PE ratio is still below the prior peak of 31 printed in January 2024.Hence, with EPS growth improving and the PE ratio below the prior peak, the Nasdaq 100 still has “ammunition” to potentially scale higher highs. Fig. 2: US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index minor trend as of 21 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bullish bias with key pivotal support at 22,960/22,945 with intermediate resistances at 23,420 and 23,660.A clearance above 23,660 is likely to increase the odds of a potential fresh bullish impulsive up move sequence for the next resistance to come in at 23,930 (current all-time high area) in the first step (see Fig. 2).Key elements The recent five days of decline have stalled at the 50-day moving average, the pull-back support of the former upper boundary of the long-term ascending channel from the March 2020 low, and the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior up move from the 1 August 2025 low to the 13 August 2025 high.The 22,960/22,945 is a key inflection zone of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD Index where a potential bullish reversal may occur.The hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout above a former parallel descending resistance after it dropped to an oversold condition on Wednesday, 20 August. These observations suggest that the prior bearish momentum has started to ease.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) The key near-term risk event will be the US Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on this Friday, 22 August, for hints on whether Powell will shift to the dovish camp from his current staunch “wait and see” approach on US monetary policy.A break below the 22,945 key support invalidates the bullish tone and puts the medium-term uptrend phase in jeopardy to open the scope for an extension of the corrective decline to expose the next supports at 22,680 and 22,420. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview where we look at the NA Indices and currencies.This week has started on a decent geopolitical background: The war in Ukraine might be getting closer to a truce.Indeed, the US regained some strength and credibility on the diplomatic front after successively hosting Russia’s Putin, the Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, and a coalition of EU leaders on the same day.Donald Trump sent some contradicting diplomatic messages at the beginning of his mandate, but looking back, it seems that the publisher of “The Art of the Deal” had more in mind: The US President keeps surprising public opinion despite still making headlines on some controversies.However, the ongoing geopolitical progress has also been followed by some huge profit-taking in US Equities, particularly in the Tech sector.(This has also been seen in the well-performing Metals and Cryptocurrencies, but these are not the subject of today’s mid-week review.)We will look at the strength of North American currencies making a short-term comeback and how NA Indices have suffered from the ongoing profit-taking.With the ISM Services PMIs approaching fast, Markets will get further information on US data: The scary PPI data from last Thursday took some confidence from Markets, as participants started to believe that tariffs wouldn’t impact the data at all.Tuesday, August 12th’s CPI data created a feeling of complacency in the market, but all of this is being taken back. Read More: Nasdaq leads downside as US indices continue to slideNorth-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Most indices and assets are unchanged except for the huge rebalancing seen from the Nasdaq towards the Dow Jones.You can access our latest Dow Analysis on that aspect right here.Dollar Index 8H Chart US Dollar Index 8H Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView An invitation to check our latest analysis of the Dollar Index, currently consolidating and slowly grinding above the 98.00 handle. Read More: The US Dollar (DXY) pauses at 98.00 as markets await clarityUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, August 20, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Since last Monday, FX currencies have been very volatile, a normal phenomenon when we look back at all the major data that was released (particularly for the US) – This has led to some particular weakness in antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD).This follows a trend of the year with both Pacific currencies struggling a bit against their counterparts as their export-oriented economies tend to get hurt a bit more by tariffs.The US Dollar is also back to some decent performance since the beginning of the week. Only the CHF is up against the Dollar since Monday.The NZD is still the biggest lagger against the USD – You can access our latest analysis of the New Zealand Dollar against the Greenback right here.CAD Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, August 6, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie is still struggling against most majors, appreciating only against the even weaker antipodean currencies.Canadian Dollar traders are still looking for good reasons to buy the CAD amid still weak Canadian data.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 4H Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USD caught some decent momentum against its neighbour yet again, coming right back to its August 1st highs.Reactions here will be key to monitor, but with the momentum accumulated, there is a decent probability that Markets push the pair higher.If they fail to do so, the reversal should be pretty strong as that would imply the formation of a double top.Levels to place on your charts: Resistance Levels:Immediate resistance at Aug Highs (1.3870)1.3950 psychological level and Key pivotMay Highs 1.40185Support Levels:1.38 Major resistance turned Pivot1.3740 Previous pivot turned SupportSupport Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar FED's Waller recently concluded his speech with no comments on the Economic outlook, so nothing really new – A reminder that he is trying to become the new FED Chair for Powell's replacement approaching in May 2026. You can access his key remarks right here.The FOMC Minutes are about to get released and are typically a non-event, but still, be cautious for any particular switch in Stance.Don't forget tomorrow's PMI data for the US releasing at 9:45 A.M.CAD traders will need to focus on the Retail Sales data at 8:30 on Friday.For the rest, the key Jackson Hole Symposium is about to begin, and with the much-anticipated Powell speech on Friday at 10:00 A.M. ET, traders are bracing strongly: Except for the struggling NZD, FX movement relatively subdued. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Following our Monday article on the ongoing profit-taking currently happening in Tech related assets, access our updated analysis on the Nasdaq.The current open continues the bloodshed in the Nasdaq, down 1.33% after yesterday’s 1.50% performance.The upward channel reaching its top had appeared as a technical hurdle to pursuing an upside, but this down move looks like more is happening.Positioning had attained an extreme on the long side, as evidenced by the put-call ratios.This is typical when such a relentless uptrend bulls through multiple All-time highs, elevating tech-related stocks to some overbought levels.A bigger theme might be into play here: With the US regaining some geopolitical credibility, some bigger 2025 trend reversal might start to play here (at least on the best performing yearly trends).The Dow Jones is however holding pretty strong (despite being down small). CBOE Put/Call Ratio, spot how a lower bound is getting reache – August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Read More: Nasdaq and tech sector open the week on cautious footingNasdaq Multi-timeframe technical analysisNasdaq Daily Chart Nasdaq Daily Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Daily bearish divergence continues to have its effect when looking at the current correction.The May upward Channel is currently breaking, which may trigger further profit-taking flows.The Daily RSI is also crossing below the neutral line, which prompt some interesting reactions.The 23,000 Key pivot zone and psychological level is getting into play here, with the 50-Day MA not too far below (22,875).A post-NFP rally analysis mentioned that despite a spectacular rebound after a huge dip, an appearance from Sellers within such a tight-bull channel may see some follow-through, with the most leveraged players starting to show some sign of hesitancy.Let's take a closer look.Nasdaq 4H Chart Nasdaq 4H Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq keeps struggling as we speak and just breached the 23,000 psychological level.A session close below this level may trigger some further mean-reversion selling.However, deep oversold levels on the 4H RSI should at least trigger some pause into the ongoing selling – the rest is to see if dip buying occurs here or consolidation holds prices below the key level.Zones of interest for Nasdaq Trading:Resistance LevelsAll-time Highs 23,98623,500 Support turned resistance23,000 Key Pivot ZoneSupport Levels22,850 50-Day MA (immediate support)22,700 Support zone22,298 Early 2025 previous All-time highsSafe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Yesterday evening's Royal Bank of New Zealand Meeting delivered a much expected 25 bps cut.Usually, a rate decision that is released as expected will then point participants towards the communication. As explained in our pre-Rate decision analysis, there are different scenarios: a dovish or hawkish approach to again different possibilities of rate decisions (cut, pause, hike, 25 bps or more).Yesterday's dovish 25 bps cut from the RBNZ caught markets by surprise: a lower longer-run inflation outlook and subsequent lower projected OCR (New Zealand's main interest rate) combined with some lower revised growth and employment outlooks sent the Kiwi dropping against all majors.You can access another NZD strategy analysis published earlier on our website for NZDJPY.Let's now look at the major Kiwi pair: NZDUSD. OANDA's Currency Strength tool, August 20, 2025 – Source: OANDA Labs (look at the NZD) Read More: The US Dollar (DXY) pauses at 98.00 as markets await clarity – What's next?NZDUSD Multi-timeframe technical analysisNZDUSD Daily Chart NZDUSD Daily Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Kiwi was evolving in a consistent upward trend since the April Liberation Day troughs, but has since broken and retested the channel supporting it.The current downtrend is forming a downward channel and the 1% down-move from yesterday's meeting is now stalling at the 0.58 support zone.Look at the reactions as mean-reversion buyers are now stepping at the 200-Day Moving average (0.5830) and lower bound of the same downward channel, from oversold RSI levels – let's have a closer look to see if the current support will be enough to hold the downtrend.Note that a failure to do so should trigger a prolonged selling trend.NZDUSD 4H Chart NZDUSD 4H Chart, August 20, 2025 – Source: TradingView Multiple scenarios are possible here.Effectively, despite momentum being in sellers' hands, multiple selling targets have been attained: The 4H RSI is also oversold, with a 4H Head and Shoulders pattern attaining its measured move target at a confluence with the lower bound of the downward channel.In such bear channels with new fundamentals, mean-reversion isn't always a given: prices may consolidate sideways before attaining the other side, upper bound of the channel.If buyers do step in around here, look at the mid-point of the channel located right at the 0.59 Pivot Zone.Levels to look for NZDUSD trading:Resistance Zones:0.59 (+/- 150 pips) Main Pivot acting as Resistance0.5950 Resistance Zone0.60 Psychological level.Support Zones:0.58150 Daily lows0.58 immediate Support ZoneNext Main Support 0.57 to 0.5750Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.