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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – January 12th, 2026
USDJPY topped 158.00 for the first time in 12 months, but can the bulls break that resistance or should we expect a drop similar to the one in Q1 2025? Read in our latest Elliott Wave analysis.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – January 5th, 2026
In this year's first Elliott Wave analysis of USDCAD, we discuss what are the odds of a sustained recovery following the 4.6% drop the pair suffered in 2025.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – January 5th, 2026
In this year's first Elliott Wave analysis of EURUSD we discuss if more upside makes sense going forward after the pair's 13.5% gain in 2025.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – January 5th, 2026
In today's Elliott Wave analysis of USDJPY we discuss if the pair's 12% recovery from Trump's tariffs shock low in April can be expected to continue or suddenly stop in its tracks.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – December 31st, 2025
In today's Elliott Wave update of USDCAD we examine the pair's hourly chart to see what December's ~2% slump likely means heading into 2026.
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Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – December 31st, 2025
EURUSD is down this week after the minutes from the last FOMC meeting reflected uncertainty most of all. In today's Elliott Wave update we identify the two key levels for short-term trading purposes.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – December 31st, 2025
USDJPY looks poised to end 2025 almost back where it started it twelve months ago, after the bulls clawed back they way up from April's low. Can they keep pushing in 2026? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – December 29, 2025
USDCAD is on track to lose nearly 5% in 2025 after the Fed's rate cutting sped up despite a strong US economy. Is the decline poised to continue next year? Read in our latest Elliott Wave analysis.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – December 29, 2025
EURUSD had its best year since 2017 after the Fed kept cutting interest rates and Trump's tariffs undermined the dollar. Can the bulls expect an even better 2026? Read in our latest Elliott Wave analysis.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – December 29, 2025
While USDJPY bulls still have a few days left to avoid a small annual loss in 2025, we examine the Elliott Wave patterns to get an idea of what the pair might have in store for next year.
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Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – December 24th, 2025
EURUSD is up this week amid Ukraine peace hopes, despite another night of Russian drone strikes on Kyiv. Can the pair breach 1.1800 in a sustainable fashion or should we expect the bears to return? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – December 24, 2025
USDCAD fell below 1.3700 this week as further Fed easing odds improved. In today's update we discuss the Elliott Wave meaning of this drop.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – December 24th, 2025
USDJPY is down this week after the BoJ showed readiness to intervene to prevent further yen weakness. Would that be enough to stop the bigger uptrend, though? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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Dollar to Weaken Against the Chinese Yuan
According to Ray Dalio’s “Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order”, a book we encourage you to read, the US is an empire in decline. His theory is that China is going to become the dominant economy in the world and the Chinese yuan is eventually going to become the global reserve currency, dethroning the dollar. And indeed, over a third of China’s trade is now being settled in yuan instead of dollars. In 2016, the IMF recognized it as the third biggest reserve currency behind only the dollar and the euro.
But it has yet to be seen how much further the yuan’s status can rise, given that it is not a free-floating currency. It is carefully managed by China’s central bank in order to support the attractiveness of the country’s exports. According to “Why Nations Fail” by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2024, unless both a country’s economic and political institutions are democratized, there is a ceiling to its development and prosperity. Nearly five decades after Deng Xiaoping’s reforms began in 1978, this is still not the case in China.
So it is fair to say that the jury is still out when it comes to the yuan’s potential to displace the dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency. Focusing on the not-so-distant future, however, USDCNH is indeed likely to weaken in the months and years ahead.
The weekly chart above reveals that the rise from 6.02 in 2014 to 7.43 in April, 2025, can be seen as a simple A-B-C zigzag correction. Wave A is a five-wave impulse, marked 1-2-3-4-5, where the five sub-waves of wave 3 are also visible. Wave B was a deep decline back to 6.24, but it didn’t breach the starting point of wave A.
Similar Elliott Wave setups occur in the crypto, commodity and stock markets, as well. Our Elliott Wave Video Course can teach you how to uncover them yourself!
It was instead followed by what looks like an ending diagonal pattern in wave C. It is labeled 1-2-3-4-5, where all five waves have a corrective a-b-c structure, waves 1 and 4 overlap and the contracting shape of the pattern is unmistakable. If this Elliott Wave count is correct, the bearish reversal near 7.43 marks the resumption of the pre-2014 downtrend. As long as the 2025 top is intact, the US dollar can be expected to keep sliding towards 6.00 and under against the Chinese yuan.
In our Elliott Wave PRO subscriptions we provide analyses of Bitcoin, Gold, Crude Oil, EURUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY and the S&P 500 every Sunday and Wednesday! Check them out now!
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Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD – December 22, 2025
EURUSD bulls lost momentum just above 1.1800 to close in the red for the first time in four weeks. In today's Elliott Wave analysis we discuss if this is a dip to buy or a warm-up for what the bears have in store for 2026.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY – December 22, 2025
BoJ's rate cut couldn't prevent a big rise in USDJPY last week as the central bank wasn't hawkish enough in its future intentions. This development fits nicely in our outlook. Take a look at in our latest Elliott Wave analysis.
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Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – December 22, 2025
USDCAD closed in the green for the first time in four weeks after the bears failed to break the support area near 1.3750. Is this just a corrective recovery or an important bullish reversal? Read in our latest Elliott Wave analysis.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDJPY – December 17th, 2025
USDJPY is up more than 10% from its April low, but still on track for an annual drop after four years of strong gains. Can we see a new multi-decade high in 2026? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – December 17th, 2025
EURUSD is on track for an annual gain of nearly 14% in 2025 fueled mostly by Fed easing and Ukraine peace hopes. Can the uptrend continue in 2026? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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Elliott Wave Update of USDCAD – December 17, 2025
While the bulls are unlikely to prevent an annual loss for USDCAD with just two weeks left of 2025, is the slide poised to continue in 2026 or should we brace for a rebound? Read in our latest Elliott Wave update.
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