Prior +1.9%Core CPI +2.3% vs +2.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Netflix earnings analysis: a simple risk check many stock investors overlookNFLX stock went up a staggeting 44% in the last 36 trading days. That's quite a fast and big move. If you were a bit greedy when others were fearful AND were following investingLive.com's original items, then you may have bought the dip apx 2 months ago. We also dished out the trade idea on the investingLive Stocks Telegram channel.Netflix may be up to $116.50 (expected move for earnings is 8.2%) but might also get to $98.85. Of course, there are a lot more options than just these 2 scenarios but that range is important in terms of what the options market is pricing in. If NFLX wants to go up, an interesting reference point (also for profit takers) is the November high of Some on you may be holding Netflix stocks as it is reporting tonight AMC (after market close). Regardless, for many market participants, the earnings season may begin with the banks, but the real emotional and narrative shift often starts with Netflix. Netflix earnings tend to attract attention far beyond streaming. Growth investors watch it. Momentum traders watch it. Younger stock investors often watch it as a signal for how the market may react to big-name, high-expectation companies.That is why this article is not about giving a Netflix earnings prediction in the narrow sense of saying the stock must go up or down next. It is about one educational angle that deserves more attention: checking how far the stock has already drifted before earnings, and what that can mean for risk.This is one of the simplest risk checks investors can make, yet many overlook it.Why Netflix earnings matter beyond the headlineWhen investors think about earnings, they often focus on the report itself. They look at subscriber trends, revenue, margins, guidance, advertising progress, content spending, and management commentary. All of that matters.But there is another question that matters just as much:How much has the stock already moved before the earnings report even arrives?That matters because the stock market does not only react to results. It reacts to expectations. If a stock has already rallied strongly into earnings, then part of the optimism may already be priced in. In that kind of setup, even good results can sometimes lead to profit-taking, volatility, or a short-term pullback.For stock investors, especially younger investors who are still learning how market expectations work, this is an important lesson. A great company and a stretched stock setup are not always the same thing.Netflix stock before earnings: why pre-earnings drift mattersOne useful concept here is pre-earnings drift. That simply means how much the stock has moved since the previous earnings report.In Netflix’s current case, the stock has risen strongly since the last report. That is a meaningful move by its own standards and puts it in a hotter setup going into earnings.Why does that matter?Because when a stock enters earnings after a strong run, the market may become less forgiving. Investors who already have gains may be quicker to take some profits. New buyers may hesitate at higher prices. And if the company delivers good results but not exceptional ones, that can still trigger disappointment.This does not mean Netflix must fall. It means investors should at least recognize that the setup into earnings is not neutral. It is more loaded with expectations.Netflix earnings prediction vs. Netflix earnings analysisThis distinction matters.A lot of content around Netflix earnings is framed as a prediction. Will Netflix beat? Will the stock jump? Will the stock crash? Those questions get clicks, but they can oversimplify what real investors should be watching.A better educational approach is Netflix earnings analysis.Analysis asks better questions:What has the stock already priced in?How stretched is the move into earnings?Has this type of setup led to volatility in past quarters?Is the stock entering earnings near the top of its recent range?Does the longer-term trend still leave room for upside, even if the short-term setup looks hot?That kind of thinking is more useful than a simple up-or-down call.What younger stock investors should learn from thisMany newer investors make the mistake of treating earnings like a one-variable event. They assume the company either reports good numbers or bad numbers, and the stock should react in a simple way.But the stock market is more nuanced than that.A company can report strong numbers and still see the stock fall.A company can report mixed numbers and still see the stock rise.Sometimes the key issue is not the report itself, but whether expectations had become too high or too low going into it.That is why it helps to study the move before earnings, not just the report on earnings day.For younger stock investors, this can become a strong habit:Before every major earnings report, ask not only what the company may report, but also what the market may have already assumed.That question alone can improve risk awareness.Why a strong run into earnings can change the risk profileWhen a stock rises a lot ahead of earnings, three things can happen.First, the good news may already be partly priced in.Second, holders with strong profits may decide to reduce exposure after the report, even if they still like the company long term.Third, the stock can become more vulnerable to a sell-the-news reaction, where investors use a positive event as a reason to lock in gains rather than add new exposure.This does not automatically create a bearish setup. It simply changes the balance of risk.That is the core educational point here.The bullish long-term thesis may remain intact. The business may still be strong. The wider trend may still be constructive. But the short-term event path can still become trickier when expectations are elevated.Netflix near the top of its range: why that matters into earningsAnother useful check is range position.If a stock is entering earnings near the top of its recent range, that can amplify the risk of volatility. Investors who bought lower may be sitting on profits. Traders who chase strength near the highs may have less margin for error. Expectations often become more demanding when price is already elevated.For Netflix, this is an important part of the discussion.Again, this is not a call to buy, sell, trim, or hold. It is an educational reminder that price location matters. A stock entering earnings near the lower end of its range presents one kind of setup. A stock entering earnings near the top of its range presents another.Those are not identical risk conditions.Longer time frame analysis still mattersThis is where balance is important.A stock may look moderately overheated on the short-term pre-earnings setup, but still have room to run in a bigger-picture trend. A one-quarter drift does not automatically invalidate a multi-year growth story.That is why investors should avoid becoming too mechanical.Short-term overheating can matter for event risk.Long-term structure can matter for the broader investment thesis.Both can be true at the same time.For example, Netflix may be entering earnings after a strong pre-report move, which raises the possibility of shakeout risk or profit-taking. But if an investor looks back over a much wider timeframe, they may still conclude that the stock has strategic upside over the coming years.That is a more mature way to think about risk.The real lesson from Netflix earnings analysisThe real lesson is not that Netflix is destined to disappoint. The lesson is that investors should learn to distinguish between a strong company and a hot setup.Those are not always the same thing.This is especially relevant during earnings season, when many well-known stocks enter reports after powerful rallies. The market often punishes stocks not because the business suddenly became weak, but because the setup had become crowded, expectations had become elevated, or traders were already positioned too aggressively.That is why Netflix earnings analysis should include more than forecasts and headlines. It should also include a simple risk check:How much has the stock already moved into earnings, and what kind of expectations might now be embedded in that price?Final thoughts on Netflix earnings and investor educationIf you own Netflix stock, this article is not telling you to trim your position, reduce risk, or do nothing. It is not a directive. It is an educational framework.The purpose is to encourage investors to pause and examine a factor that often gets ignored in earnings season: pre-earnings drift and the possibility that a stock has come into the event a bit overheated.Netflix is a strong example because it often sits near the center of market attention, and because many investors treat its report as a broader signal for growth stocks.So as Netflix earnings approach, one of the smartest things investors can do is not just ask what the company may report, but also ask what the stock has already done before the report.That one habit can help investors better understand expectations, event risk, and the difference between long-term conviction and short-term positioning.One example I learned in the past 10+ years is to consider taking partial profit, for example 10% or 20% before earnings. But I am not saying to do that now, that will be up to you. My point was to get you to stop and think.And for stock investors, that is a valuable lesson to learn early. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Pakistani army chief trip to Iran helped reduce differences in some areasAfter the trip, there are greater hopes for extending the ceasefire and holding a second round of talksFundamental disagreements continue over nuclear issuesThe fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium and the duration of its nuclear restrictions remain unresolvedFollowing a high-level visit to Tehran by Pakistan’s Army Chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, a senior Iranian official indicated that the mediation has successfully narrowed the gap in several key areas. The trip has bolstered hopes for both an extension of the current fragile ceasefire and the convening of a second round of formal talks, potentially to be held again in Islamabad.Despite the progress, fundamental disagreements continue to stall a broader breakthrough, particularly regarding Iran’s nuclear program. While the mediation facilitated better communication, the core dispute over the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains a significant hurdle. The US has maintained a firm stance on the removal or dilution of this material, whereas Tehran continues to defend its sovereign right to maintain its nuclear infrastructure.Furthermore, the duration of nuclear restrictions, a cornerstone of any long-term settlement, remains unresolved. Negotiators are reportedly wrestling with the timeline for a "freeze" on enrichment, with significant disparities between the decades-long restrictions sought by the US and the much shorter duration proposed by Iran. While Pakistan's involvement has helped maintain a diplomatic channel, the resolution of these high-stakes nuclear issues continues to be the primary obstacle to a lasting peace agreement. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Focus on April hike is prematureThe ECB would have no hesitation to act if and when necessaryThere's no rush to act at the momentThere's no predetermined rate pathThe ECB will need critical mass of data before actingOur vigilance is first and foremost on the risk of persistent inflationUnderlying inflation is still close to targetECB's Villeroy reiterated that focusing on a potential interest rate hike in April is premature as the bank maintains a cautious and data-dependent stance. While Villeroy made it clear that the ECB would have no hesitation to act if and when necessary to maintain price stability, he reiterated that there is no rush to act at the current moment.The governor noted that the ECB will need a critical mass of data before making any decisive policy shifts. Villeroy highlighted that the bank’s vigilance is first and foremost focused on the risk of persistent inflation, which remains the primary concern for policymakers. Despite recent global economic volatility and energy price fluctuations, he pointed out that underlying inflation is still close to the bank's target.Villeroy’s comments suggest that while the central bank is prepared to tighten policy if inflationary pressures become entrenched, it prefers a patient wait-and-see approach.The market is currently pricing in just 20% probability of an April hike but that increases to 70% for June. In total, the market expects the ECB to deliver two rate hikes by year-end. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.5%HICP +1.6% vs +1.5% y/y prelimPrior +1.5%The jump in Italy's headline inflation is not as profound as elsewhere in the region. However, it still reflects the same characteristics with energy price inflation spiking higher. Energy price inflation was down by 6.6% year-on-year in February but now reflect a 2.3% decline only instead.Besides that, the inflationary momentum is also supported by the acceleration in the prices of unprocessed food (+4.4% from +3.7%).As for core annual inflation, that is seen slowing in March to 1.9% - down from 2.4% in February. That comes as services inflation sees a marked slowdown to 2.8%, down from 3.6% previously.It's only one month's worth of reading for now and with surging energy prices, expect that to have more of an impact on headline and core prices in the region in the months ahead. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a short-term rally in the greenback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the upside could remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might see the dollar extending the losses although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk.The market is now pricing in 10 bps of easing by year-end and that might increase on a peace deal. I think the market might get disappointed further down the road as the boost to economic activity amid a resilient labour market and rate cut expectations will likely keep inflation above the 2% target and the Fed on the sidelines. INR:The Indian rupee stabilised recently as the risk-on sentiment amid the US-Iran deal optimism gave the currency a reprieve. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations as everything hinges on their outcome.In terms of macro, the RBI held interest rates steady at 5.25% and downgraded growth forecasts due to the US-Iran war at the last policy meeting. The central bank expects inflation to increase in the short-term and growth to slow down. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs, but for now the Rupee could remain supported and extend the relief rally in case the US-Iran war ends.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR fell below the upper bound of the channel and started to consolidate. The sellers are stepping in around the top trendline to extend the drop into the lower bound of the channel. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising back above the top trendline to increase the bullish bets into new highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers continue to step in around the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation between the minor upward trendline and the resistance zone around the 94.00 handle. There’s not much we can add here as the buyers will look for bounces around the trendline and wait for a break above the resistance, while the sellers will continue to step in around the resistance and wait for a break below the trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Since the December meeting, financial market situation has been characterised by elevated volatilityMiddle East conflict has resulted in surge in energy prices, which led to a global rise in inflation expectationsWith the appreciation of the Swiss franc since December, monetary conditions are tighterHowever, monetary policy remains expansionaryThe board discussed the various factors responsible for the movements in the Swiss franc exchange rateOne factor is the Swiss franc's role as a safe havenThe discussion also addressed the latest developments in energy pricesUncertainty about the future course of oil prices remains highThe board also discussed the conditional inflation forecast, which assumes that the policy rate remains at 0%In the short-term, it is higher than the December forecast due to the rise in energy pricesIn the medium-term, the appreciation of the Swiss franc reduces inflationary pressure, countering possible second-round effects of the rise in energy pricesTherefore, the inflation forecast over the medium-term is very close to that of the previous quarterDespite the escalation in the Middle East, the scenario for global economic developments has not changed fundamentallyIn light of the outlooks presented with regards to inflation and the economy, monetary conditions remain appropriateMonetary policy can currently still be considered expansionaryHowever, the SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market should remain high in order to counter a rapid and excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, which would jeopardise price stability in SwitzerlandFull minutesThe key takeaway here is that the SNB is in stasis in now having to deal with the indirect repercussions of the US-Iran conflict. To be more specific, the issue of taming a much stronger Swiss franc currency.The mention of that being a counterweight to a second-round impact of inflation pressures is a valid argument. However, the main worry is that the currency's strength will remain sticky and prove to be more detrimental when viewed from a more structural outlook.With the central bank already wanting to avoid unconventional monetary policy such as negative interest rates any time soon, this is a welcome distraction but it won't change the path that the Swiss economy is put on in the bigger picture. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar has been on the backfoot since Monday as the positive US-Iran deal expectations kept weighing on the greenback. The second round of negotiations were expected to begin today but we never had an official date. They are expected to happen before the April 22 ceasefire deadline though. In the meantime, we got reports that US and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday and they were moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war. A US official has also mentioned that if a framework agreement is reached, the ceasefire would need to be extended to negotiate the details of a comprehensive deal.Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to break down again, we might see a short-term rally in the greenback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the upside could remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might see the dollar extending the losses although a “sell the fact” type of reaction remains a risk.The market is now pricing in 10 bps of easing by year-end and that might increase on a peace deal. I think the market might get disappointed further down the road as the boost to economic activity amid a resilient labour market and rate cut expectations will likely keep inflation above the 2% target and the Fed on the sidelines. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, despite the growing expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target.Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike.For now, the BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady and let things settle after the conclusion of the war. What the BoJ could do at the April meeting is to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if they think they have the right conditions in place and that could give the JPY a short-term boost.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY is still consolidating above the 158.00 support zone. The recent consolidation might have formed a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the support. If the price falls back to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 level next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected the downward trendline near the 160.00 handle and dropped into the 158.25 level today before bouncing. The sellers stepped in around the minor downward trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into the 158.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break above the trendline to pile in for a rally into the next trendline.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a key swing level around 159.10. If we get a break above the trendline, the swing level is where we can expect the sellers to step back in to position for new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures but the focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin price prediction: Maybe something like this (watch $80k area on bitcoin futures)Bitcoin Price Analysis on the Above 4h Chart: The Path to $80,000The current technical setup suggests Bitcoin is entering a "price discovery" phase within its established ascending corridor. While the trend remains bullish, the $80,000 level represents more than just a round number—it is a critical psychological and structural resistance point.1. The Ascending Channel DynamicsAs seen in the chart, Bitcoin has been bouncing between a series of higher lows (starting near $62,590) and higher highs.The Support: The lower trendline has acted as a safety net, most recently holding firm around the $65,000–$68,000 zone.The Mid-Line: The dashed median line in the yellow channel serves as the "equilibrium." Bitcoin is currently trading above this line, which signals strong momentum.2. Why $80,000 is the "X" FactorThe target marked "X" on the futures chart aligns with the upper resistance of the multi-month channel. Reaching this level would require a breakout from the current local consolidation at $75,000–$76,000.The Bull Case: A clean break above $76,320 (the previous local peak) would likely trigger a "short squeeze," as traders who bet against the rally are forced to buy back their positions, potentially catapulting the price toward $80,000.The Institutional Play: With Bitcoin Futures trading at a slight premium, institutional sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite recent geopolitical volatility.3. "Illustrative, Not a Forecast"The disclaimer in the chart is vital. Technical patterns are roadmaps, not guarantees. The channel is the more "reliable" element, the arrow with the path is illustrative. Why do I say "reliable"? Because if you are new to technical analysis, this art and science is not a crystal ball, and it is not guaranteed. Most of you al already know that. A pattern that plays itself out in 70% is amazing in terms of win rate. Watch the pullback on bitcoin: The zig-zag arrow leading to the $80k target suggests that the path won't be a straight line. Investors should look for a "retest" of the $73,000 area to confirm it has flipped from resistance to support before the final leg up.Volume is key: For the "80k prediction" to manifest, we need to see an increase in buying volume to pierce the top of the yellow channel.Summary for crypto traders: Bitcoin is currently "holding the line" at $75,000. If it maintains this level, the structural "magnet" is the $80,000 resistance. However, a failure to hold the channel's mid-line could see a revisit to the $69,800 support before another attempt at the highs.The Bottom Line: Keep your eyes on the futures. The $80,000 mark is the definitive "battleground" for the next phase of this bull market.Key Takeaways for Today's Bitcoin Prediction at investingLive.comPrediction Score: +2.8 (Mildly Bullish) Bitcoin futures have reclaimed the monthly POC near $74,500 The market shows a bullish repair from $71K lows, not a full breakout yet $76,300 (VAH) remains the key resistance for bullish continuation A successful acceptance above that zone could open the path toward $80,000 The rising monthly VWAP near $71,300 continues to act as structural supportBitcoin futures are stabilizing after early-April weakness - but the real test is still aheadBitcoin futures are starting to look constructive again, and from my perspective, this is not just a random bounce. It is a structured recovery that traders should pay attention to.Since the start of April, Bitcoin initially slipped from around $68,700 to approximately $65,900, shaking out weaker hands early in the month. But what followed is far more important than the drop itself.The market reclaimed the monthly VWAP near $71,300, pushed back into the value area, and has now re-established itself above the Point of Control near $74,500. That shift tells us that price is no longer trading at a discount. Instead, it is now operating in a more balanced-to-constructive zone.The chart included in this analysis highlights this evolution clearly. It shows how Bitcoin moved from lower value back into the upper half of the monthly range, with the key levels and value structure acting as a roadmap for price behavior. Important note: The chart is for illustrative purposes only. It shows a potential path within a rising channel, not a guaranteed trajectory. Markets rarely move in straight lines.The bigger story: from bearish pressure to bullish repairWhat stands out most in this structure is the rejection of lower value.Bitcoin futures tested the $71,300 area (monthly value area low) and quickly reversed. That is not something to ignore. When markets reject lower prices and move higher quickly, it often signals that sellers failed to gain control.From there, Bitcoin climbed steadily: into the $72K–$73K zone then through the $74K area and eventually challenged $76,000+This type of move is what traders call a value repair. The market is essentially saying: “we went too low, and now we are recalibrating higher.”Even more important, the market managed to reclaim the $74,500 POC, which is the level where the most volume has traded this month. Holding above that level is typically a sign of improving structure.Why this is still not a full breakout for the Crypto King (yet)Now here is where the nuance comes in.Bitcoin already attempted a breakout above $76,300, reaching roughly $76,800. But that move did not hold. Price rotated back lower, showing that buyers were not yet strong enough to maintain control above that upper boundary.This matters.Because of that failed breakout, the $76,000–$76,300 zone becomes a key decision area. Traders now know that sellers previously stepped in there. Until Bitcoin proves it can hold above it, that level remains a barrier.So while the structure is bullish, it is still best described as:Bullish repair with overhead congestion - not full bullish controlThe $80K discussion: realistic target or premature optimism?I have been discussing Bitcoin actively on social media over the past weeks, and one thing stood out clearly - a large number of participants were aggressively bearish, many even shorting into this recovery.My response was simple: be careful, and protect your capital.Those who have been following investingLive.com know that we have maintained a constructive-to-bullish view on Bitcoin for several weeks, even when sentiment was leaning the other way.Now, does that mean Bitcoin goes straight to $80,000 from here? No.Markets do not move in straight lines, and no one has a crystal ball.However, from a technical perspective, the upper boundary of the current structure and channel points toward the $80K region as a potential target zone, not a guaranteed outcome.For that scenario to become more realistic, Bitcoin needs to:break and hold above $76,300 build acceptance above that level and avoid falling back into the middle of the range If that happens, the path toward higher levels, including $78K–$80K, becomes much more credible.Educational insight: why VWAP and value areas matterFor newer traders and investors, it is worth understanding why these levels matter.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) shows where the average price is based on volume. When price is above a rising VWAP, it often reflects stronger demand. Value Area (VAL to VAH) represents where most trading activity has occurred. POC (Point of Control) is the price where the most volume has traded. When Bitcoin moves: from below value → into value → above value, it often reflects improving sentiment and participation. That is exactly what we are seeing now.Technical scenario for Bitcoin: what to watch nextBullish scenario (continuation toward $80K zone)If Bitcoin futures: hold above $74,500 and break above $76,300then the market could shift into a stronger bullish phase, opening the path toward $78K–$80K over time.Neutral scenario for Bitcoin futures (range continuation)If price continues rotating between $74,500 and $76,300, the market may remain in consolidation before the next major move.Bearish scenario Bitcoin futures (failed repair)If Bitcoin falls back below $74,500 and fails to hold that area, the current recovery weakens. A deeper move toward $71,300 would then come back into focus.Bottom line for Today's Bitcoin Analysis at investingLive.comBitcoin futures are in a better position than they were earlier this month. The market has repaired from lower levels and reclaimed key value areas.But this is not a confirmed breakout yet.Still, BTC futures have repaired meaningfully from lower value and are back in a constructive position above the 1-month composite POC (Point of control), but the market still needs to prove it can accept above the April's value area high VAH before we call this a stronger bullish takeover, and that is where the last stubborn short sellers get margin called.The $76,300 level is the gate. Above it, the bullish case strengthens significantly. Below it, the market remains in a transitional phase.The discussion around $80,000 is valid as a potential target, but only if the market earns it through acceptance and continuation - not speculation.This analysis is for educational purposes only. Markets are uncertain, and outcomes are never guaranteed. Always do your own research and consider multiple perspectives.For additional views, scenarios, and ongoing updates, follow more analysis on investingLive.com, where we break down markets using structured, data-driven approaches designed to support both traders and long-term investors.Oh, and it sure helps to have Nasdaq futures at a new all time high today, isn't it, bulls? What may come next? Hop over to https://t.me/investingLiveStocks and stay tuned at investingLive.com This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, the only highlight was the UK GDP report. The data showed a record fourth straight month of increase in services output. And the good news is that the growth was more widespread with 12 of the 14 subsectors showing positive increases in activity. Nonetheless, the market reaction was rather muted since the data precedes the US-Iran war.We will also get the final Eurozone CPI for March, but that's not going to change anything for the ECB at the moment as the central bank awaits more data before deciding whether a rate hike is needed.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Initial Claims are expected at 213K vs 219K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1810K vs 1794K prior. The US jobs data has been showing a resilient and even improving labour market. This is not a concern for now, on the contrary, it's good news for growth.But if we see a stronger improvement with upside risks to wage growth, then even if oil prices ease from the current elevated levels, the Fed might eventually consider a rate hike given that it's been missing the 2% target since 2021.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS12:30 GMT/08:30 ET - ECB's Kazaks (neutral - voter)12:35 GMT/08:35 ET - Fed's Williams (neutral - voter)13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - ECB's Schnabel (neutral - voter)14:35 GMT/10:35 ET - Fed's Miran (dove - voter)15:15 GMT/11:15 ET - ECB's Rehn (neutral - voter)15:40 GMT/11:40 ET - BoE's Taylor (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Villeroy (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)16:00 GMT/12:00 ET - SNB's Tschudin (neutral - voter)16:45 GMT/12:45 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)18:30 GMT/14:30 ET - RBA's Hunter (neutral - voter)18:30 GMT/14:30 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)19:00 GMT/15:00 ET - BoE's Taylor (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The revised call comes as we are also starting to see ECB policymakers preach more patience rather than taking a more proactive step come later this month. Goldman Sachs had previously forecast the ECB to raise key interest rates in April and June but have now pushed back that timeline by just a little bit.The firm now expects the central bank to deliver on those rate hikes in June and September instead. On the call, they note that:"We expect energy prices to remain persistently high through 2026. A significant passthrough into inflation is likely in the coming months and the ECB's communication has remained largely hawkish on the path ahead."As mentioned earlier, traders are just pricing in ~20% odds of a rate hike for the April meeting for now. But come the June meeting, those odds jump up by quite a margin to ~81% at the moment. For this year, traders are pricing in ~56 bps of rate hikes by the ECB currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%GDP +1.0% vs +0.6% y/y expectedPrior +0.8%; revised to +0.7%Services +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior 0.0%; revised to +0.1%Industrial output +0.5% vs +0.2% m/m expectedPrior -0.1%Manufacturing output -0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expectedPrior +0.1%; revised to +0.2%Construction output +1.0% vs 0.0% m/m expectedPrior +0.2%; revised to +0.5%The main boost to the UK economy in February came amid a beat on estimates from the services sector output. That contributed to 0.42% (unrounded) in terms of monthly GDP growth. In the three months to February, UK GDP is also estimated to have grown by 0.5% after the 0.3% reading in the three months to January.The more positive showing by the services sector now sees it record a fourth straight month of increase in output. And the good news is that the growth is more widespread with 12 of the 14 subsectors showing positive increases in activity.The details show that the largest positive contribution to services sector output came from administrative and support service activities (up 2.0%). An increase of 2.5% in employment activities was the largest positive contributor to the subsector after haven fallen by 6.6% in January.All in all, it's a positive showing by the UK economy right before the US-Iran conflict started. But with the war set to leave its mark, this is very much lagging data and not one that will have any material impact to the outlook currently. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.As things stand, markets are continuing to feel more optimistic about the US-Iran situation. And with lower oil prices (at least on paper), that is helping to spread some relief across other asset classes. In particular, US equities are driving up with tech shares continuing to rebound strongly in the past two weeks. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted closed at fresh record highs in trading yesterday.In FX, that is leading to a weaker dollar and traders sense a better outlook on things to come. But whether or not that optimism is misplaced, is a topic for another conversation. Considering the overall risk mood for now though, the dollar is on the backfoot and that will look to hold in the session ahead barring any major headline surprises.USD/JPY remains one that is of interest with Tokyo officials stepping up their verbal intervention in the past day. That so as to try and put down traders just in case the market sentiment turns on any fallout from US-Iran tensions. The pair is keeping at 158.80 on the day now, down 0.1% and keeping little changed.Amid a lack of meaningful impact from the expiries, it's all on headline risks once again. For now, all eyes will be on whether Pakistan can convince Iran to come back to the negotiating table and if there will be more talks in the coming days. Besides that, we'll have to see if the ceasefire will also be extended. The current agreement is that it will hold until 22 April before lapsing.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Proprietary trading firms have become a notable funding path for experienced crypto traders looking to operate beyond their personal capital. Rather than risking personal savings, traders can access firm capital after passing structured evaluations, sharing profits in return. But the growing number of programs on the market makes it harder to separate serious platforms from those that fall short.This guide breaks down what to look for, what to avoid, and how to approach the selection process with a critical eye.How Crypto Prop Firms WorkCrypto prop firms fund traders who complete evaluation challenges, typically structured in two phases. Combined profit targets generally sit around 8% to 10%, with drawdown limits (commonly 5% daily and 10% maximum) designed to test risk management discipline. Traders who pass receive funded accounts that can range from $5,000 to $200,000 or more.The profit-sharing model usually starts between 70% and 80%, with higher tiers reaching 90% for consistent performers. Challenge fees are often refunded after the first successful payout, reducing the net cost of entry.What distinguishes crypto-specific firms from their forex or equities counterparts is round-the-clock market access. Cryptocurrency markets never close, which means traders can hold positions over weekends and capitalize on volatility that traditional market participants miss entirely.Key Factors Worth EvaluatingWhen comparing programs, a few features tend to separate credible platforms from the rest.Payout speed is one of the clearest signals of operational reliability. Programs that process withdrawals within 8 to 24 hours via stablecoins like USDT or USDC offer a significant advantage over those requiring weeks of processing or limiting payouts to monthly bank transfers. Fast access to earnings matters, particularly in volatile markets where capital redeployment can be time-sensitive.Evaluation flexibility is another area that deserves attention. Time-limited challenges introduce artificial pressure that can push traders toward poor decision-making. Programs offering unlimited evaluation periods allow strategies to play out naturally, which is especially relevant for swing traders or those adapting to larger position sizes.Leverage and instrument diversity also vary widely. Quality platforms tend to offer leverage between 10:1 and 20:1 on perpetuals and futures, with access to 40 or more trading pairs. Support for spot trading, options, and both USDT-margined and USDC linear contracts gives traders the flexibility to operate across different market conditions rather than being confined to a narrow set of instruments.Capital scaling paths round out the picture. Starting balances matter less than the trajectory. Firms with clear, achievable criteria for scaling accounts toward $500,000 or $1,000,000 reward consistency and give traders a concrete growth roadmap.Red Flags That Should Give You PauseNot every firm operates transparently, and a few warning signs are worth watching for.Hidden fees beyond the stated challenge cost are a common issue. Some programs advertise competitive entry prices but add activation or processing charges after the evaluation is complete. Always calculate the full cost to funded status before committing.Overly restrictive consistency rules can make sustained profitability unrealistic. While basic risk parameters serve a purpose, requirements that cap individual winning days at a fixed percentage or mandate specific win rates force unnatural trading behavior that rarely reflects how successful strategies actually work.Support infrastructure is often overlooked but tells you a lot about a firm's operational maturity. Programs that lack 24/7 human support through channels like Discord, Telegram, or live chat can leave traders stranded during critical moments, particularly on weekends or during Asian market hours when issues may arise.Community feedback on payout practices is perhaps the most revealing indicator. Forums, social media, and trader communities provide real-world accounts of how consistently firms honor their commitments. Programs with a track record of paying out to large numbers of traders across multiple countries tend to demonstrate greater reliability.Matching a Program to Your Trading StyleThe right firm depends heavily on how you trade. Scalpers and high-frequency traders should verify that their methodology is explicitly permitted, as many firms restrict or prohibit these strategies. Swing traders benefit most from platforms with no time limits on evaluations, giving them room to execute without rushing.For traders focused on cryptocurrency markets specifically, the best crypto prop firm options tend to be those that specialize in digital assets rather than spreading across multiple asset classes. Specialization typically translates to deeper exchange integrations, faster stablecoin payouts, and evaluation structures designed around crypto market dynamics.Geographic restrictions are less common in crypto prop trading than in traditional finance, but it is still worth confirming that your region is not excluded before paying any fees.Setting Realistic ExpectationsIndustry-wide challenge pass rates tend to fall between 5% and 10%, depending on evaluation difficulty and trader experience. Programs with unlimited time frames generally see higher completion rates because traders are not forced into rushed decisions.Once funded, consistent monthly returns of 3% to 5% can generate meaningful income. On a $200,000 account with an 80% profit split, a 4% monthly return translates to roughly $6,400 in trader earnings. At higher account tiers, those figures grow proportionally.The traders who tend to succeed treat evaluations with the same discipline they would apply to a live funded account from day one. Following proven strategies, respecting drawdown limits, and avoiding emotional trades after losses are the habits that separate funded traders from those who cycle through repeated challenges.Final ConsiderationsThe crypto prop firm space has matured considerably, offering experienced traders a viable path to accessing meaningful capital. The most important factors remain consistent: transparent payout practices, flexible evaluation structures, real exchange execution, and clear scaling opportunities.Rather than chasing the flashiest marketing or the highest advertised profit splits, traders benefit from prioritizing sustainability and operational credibility. The right firm removes capital as a constraint and lets trading skill determine outcomes.Disclaimer: This is a sponsored thought leadership article. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

No hard evidence yet of second-round inflation effectsIt may be difficult to conclude by April meeting if a rate hike is neededLeaving things to the June meeting offers us more dataHowever, a rate move at the April meeting still cannot be ruled outAs things stand, traders are only pricing in a ~20% probability of a rate hike for later this month. However, those odds jump up significantly to ~81% by the time the June meeting comes along. And by year-end, traders are pricing in ~56 bps of rate hikes by the ECB at this present time.Do keep in mind though that the market pricing has shifted modestly in the past week or so, as traders are feeling more optimistic about US-Iran developments and the lasting impact on inflation.Besides Muller, we're also getting some comments from policymaker Alexander Demarco:ECB needs to be patient, not rush any decisionEuro are economy may be veering towards our adverse scenarioIf adverse scenario materialises, the two rate hikes seen by markets is a reasonable expectationInflation expectations are well anchored for now, corporate pricing signals will be crucialThe narrative seems to be that they want to buy a little bit more time before taking action. That especially as there continues to be a cloud of uncertainty on how things will proceed next with the US-Iran conflict.Markets might be optimistic and hopeful that a peace deal is coming. However, the fact of the situation remains that the Strait of Hormuz has not yet opened. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's wild to see how markets are running with this much optimism when we haven't seen any actual progress yet on the Middle East conflict. The fact of the matter remains that the Strait of Hormuz is in de facto closure and set to enter its eighth straight week under such circumstances.Yet, oil prices have come off the boil by quite a mile with WTI crude hovering around $91.75 currently. Meanwhile, the more indicative "front-month" June contract is trading at around $88.15 on the day. As for Brent crude, it is keeping closer to the $95 level at the moment. However, physical prices are still holding a massive $40 to $50 premium. So, keep that in mind.As much as markets are optimistic, the situation on the ground hasn't changed. In Asia, we're already seeing plenty of economies needing to adjust to the reality with price increases everywhere. And we all know that when prices go up, they never come back down. So even if the energy price surge might prove to be temporary, the impact is more permanent for your every day consumer and business.In any case, markets are always a different beast and right now the signal is that there is much expectation of good news to come in the coming week at least. That optimistic angle is enough to push major indices in the US to fresh all-time highs this week.As we get into the second half of the week, here's where we stand on US-Iran developments today:US president Trump says "the war with Iran can be over very soon", touts "an amazing two days ahead"Reports suggest US and Iran are weighing an extension to the ceasefireIran categorically denies extending the ceasefire; no plans for further talks at the momentPakistan tries to mediate the situation with army chief arriving in Tehran to push for second round of talksThe final point is where we stand now, so perhaps we could see talks over the weekend - whether directly or indirectly.The US demands still remain the same, that being the two key points especially. The first is for Iran to give up its nuclear ambition. And the second is for a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.On the first demand, Iran is still not giving in and that is a major sticking point in negotiations. On the second demand at least, a Reuters report suggests that Iran seems to be open to the idea of allowing a small passage gap closer to Oman. I would figure it would look something like this:However, Iran's flexibility on that will still be largely tied to how negotiations play out with the US. So, there's that.As we look to the coming two days, it is still all about US-Iran tensions and headline risks for markets. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Trump posts upbeat comments on Israel -Lebanon peace talks -"Nice!"Today's FX winner is Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, She's sent the yen higher.ICYMI - Reports that Iran proposes partial Hormuz reopening for ships via Oman watersFox says its confirmed that Iran used Chinese satellite to target US basesJapan’s Katayama says closely watching FX as oil volatility hits yenMixed China data highlight fragile recovery outlook: retail sales sad, industrial beatChina March new home prices -3.4% y/y (February -3.2%)China Q1 GDP beats forecasts but Iran war risks loomAustralia jobs resilience, unemployment rate steady, keeps RBA focused on inflation risksAustralian March 2026 unemployment rate 4.3% (expected 4.3%, prior 4.3%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8616 (vs. estimate at 6.8190)Iran hardliners rise after war, raising risks to Hormuz and peace prospectsICYMI - China to issue 15.5bn yuan offshore bonds, largest sale since October 2023Goldman Sachs rates hit by Iran war volatility as FICC revenue fallsWhite House urges oil CEOs to pump more as prices surgePentagon explores automaker role to boost weapons productionJapan's Finance Minister Katayama said to intensify communication with BessentECB officials lean toward April rate hold amid Iran war uncertaintyIMF says BOJ can look through Iran war inflation shockICYMI - Fed’s Musalem says oil shock to keep core inflation near 3%UK expands energy bill relief scheme for industry amid rising costsUS ramps up Iran pressure as officials warn blockade impact could take monthsECB’s Schnabel says bank can take time to assess Iran shockSummary:FT reports Israel–Lebanon ceasefire expected soon; Trump adds upbeat tone. Reports Iran used Chinese satellite for US base surveillance, raising geopolitical risks. Oil traded subdued despite ongoing supply disruption concerns. Japan signals heightened FX vigilance; yen edges higher on the session. ECB’s Schnabel reinforces “wait-and-see” stance on Iran shock. Australia jobs steady; China data mixed with strong GDP but weak consumption. US defence production push highlights prolonged conflict dynamics. A more constructive tone crept into markets through the session, with geopolitical headlines offering cautious optimism even as underlying risks remain elevated.The Financial Times reported that a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon could be imminent, citing Lebanese officials. That narrative was reinforced later in the session by upbeat remarks from President Trump, helping stabilise sentiment. At the same time, reports that Iran may have used a Chinese satellite to monitor US bases added a more complex and potentially escalatory dimension to the conflict, with implications for US-China relations and the evolution of modern warfare.Oil markets traded in a relatively subdued range, suggesting some consolidation after recent volatility, even as supply risks tied to Hormuz disruptions remain unresolved.In FX, Japan remained firmly in focus. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo and Washington agreed to intensify communication on exchange rates following talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. She later reiterated that authorities are closely monitoring FX moves, warning that oil-driven volatility is feeding into currency markets and affecting the broader economy. The yen edged modestly stronger on the session, with intervention risk still lingering in the background.On the central bank front, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel struck a measured tone, noting the euro area is in a relatively favourable position after returning inflation to target pre-war. She emphasised that policy is broadly neutral and that the ECB can take time to assess whether the Iran shock generates lasting second-round inflation effects.Data flow was mixed. Australia’s labour market remained resilient, with employment rising 17.9k (exp 20k) and unemployment steady at 4.3%, reinforcing the view that the RBA retains room to tighten. The Australian dollar gained, lifting the kiwi alongside it, while the US dollar was broadly weaker.In China, Q1 GDP beat expectations at 5.0% y/y (exp 4.8%), though accompanying activity data painted a softer picture, with weak retail sales and ongoing property sector stress highlighting a fragile recovery.On the corporate front, reports that the Pentagon is exploring ways to boost weapons production with US manufacturers underscore the likelihood of sustained defence demand, with potential spillovers into broader industrial sectors. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump pumping talks between Israel and Lebanon, adding to positive sentiment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan's Finance Minister Katayama has been verbally intervening today: Not once, but twice:Japan's Finance Minister Katayama said to intensify communication with BessentDropping in the B word in is more forceful verbal interventionJapan’s Katayama says closely watching FX as oil volatility hits yen This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran has proposed allowing ships safe passage via the Omani side of Hormuz as part of US talks, signalling potential easing of disruptions, though flows remain far below pre-war levels.Summary:Iran has reportedly proposed allowing ships to transit the Omani side of Hormuz without attack. The proposal is conditional on progress in negotiations with the US. Shipping remains heavily disrupted, with traffic far below pre-war levels. Hundreds of vessels and ~20,000 seafarers remain stranded The Strait of Hormuz, previously fully open pre-war, remains a key unresolved issue. Would mark a partial de-escalation from earlier hardline proposals (fees, control claims).Iran is considering a partial de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, offering to allow ships to transit safely through the Omani side of the critical waterway as part of ongoing negotiations with the United States, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Reuters carreid the report ICYMI. The proposal would permit vessels to pass through waters adjacent to Oman without risk of attack, potentially restoring limited shipping flows through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. However, the offer is conditional on progress in broader negotiations aimed at preventing a renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict.The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows, has been severely disrupted since the outbreak of war on February 28. Prior to the conflict, the strait functioned as a stable and open artery for global trade. Since then, traffic has collapsed to a fraction of normal levels, with hundreds of vessels stranded and an estimated 20,000 seafarers unable to exit the Gulf.While a ceasefire has been in place since April 8, shipping conditions have yet to normalise. The situation has been further complicated by a US blockade targeting vessels linked to Iranian ports, adding another layer of uncertainty for operators navigating the region.Iran’s proposal marks a notable shift from more aggressive measures floated in recent weeks, including the possibility of imposing transit fees or asserting broader control over the strait—moves that drew strong opposition from the international community and maritime authorities.However, key uncertainties remain. It is unclear whether Iran would clear any mines in the proposed transit corridor or whether all vessels, including those linked to Israel, would be granted safe passage. The proposal’s success ultimately depends on whether Washington is willing to meet Tehran’s conditions in ongoing negotiations.If implemented, the plan would represent the first concrete step toward restoring shipping flows, though likely only partially. Even then, the return to pre-war norms appears distant, with security risks and geopolitical tensions continuing to weigh on one of the world’s most vital trade routes.-Potentially bearish for oil if credible, as it signals partial restoration of flows. However, conditionality and execution risks mean markets likely price only a limited easing of the risk premium for now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.