KEY POINTS:The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cutsFed Chair Powell sounded dovish by downplaying inflation risk and emphasising labour market weaknessGold broke out of the two-week long consolidation and extended the gains as momentum increasedFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold finally broke out of the consolidation below the 4245 level yesterday and extended the gains above the 4300 level this morning.There was no fundamental catalyst for the move as the US initial claims came out basically in line with the recent releases and continuing claims, despite beating expectations by a big margin, were dismissed due to holiday distortion. The rally was mostly technical as the breakout triggered stops and saw more buyers piling in to target new highs. Nonetheless, despite the Fed delivering on expectations, the dovish Fed Chair Powell tone acted as a tailwind for precious metals. Looking ahead, the main risk events for gold will be the NFP and CPI reports next week. Strong data should weigh on the precious metal and trigger a correction, while weak figures will likely give it a further boost.In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the Fed’s dovish reaction function. But in the short term, a further hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations should weigh on the market. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that after breaking above the 4245 level, the buyers extended the gains into the 4280 level. The natural target should be the all-time high around the 4381 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in around the all-time high with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the 3887 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly yesterday’s breakout. If we get a pullback into the 4245 resistance-turned-support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into the all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to extend the pullback into the 4150 support next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new all-time highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the 4245 support targeting a break below it. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSNext week we have the US NFP report on Tuesday and the US CPI on Thursday. Huge week! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:The Fed delivered on expectations, but Powell sounded dovishUS-India trade talks concluded on a positive note, although there wasn't any major breakthroughIndia's Chief Economic Adviser sees a deal now closer than ever and could be reached by MarchNifty 50 rises back above the key 25,900 level, shifting the short-term bias to bullishFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe Nifty 50 has been rallying strongly since Thursday's open. The Fed delivered on expectations cutting by 25 bps and signalling a higher bar for further rate cuts. In the press conference though, Fed Chair Powell sounded quite dovish as he downplayed the inflation risk and emphasised the labour market weakness.On the US-India trade front, the talks that were held in New Delhi concluded with no major breakthrough, but the India's Chief Economic Adviser said that a deal was now closer than ever and it could be sealed by March. India's PM Modi spoke with Trump yesterday and described the conversation as "warm and engaging".Looking forward, next week we have the US NFP and CPI reports. Hot data could triggered a hawkish repricing for Fed's interest rate expectations and weigh on global risk sentiment. That could also negatively impact the Nifty 50. On the other hand, weak data should see traders adding to rate cut bets and supporting equity markets.NIFTY 50 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the Nifty 50 is recovering some ground as a dovish Fed Chair Powell and hopes for a US-India trade deal boosted the risk sentiment. If the price were to rally back into the all-time high, we can expect the sellers to step in there with a defined risk above the all-time high to position for a drop into the 25,317 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.NIFTY 50 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.NIFTY 50 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the buyers started to aggressively pile in on Thursday’s open and increase the bullish bets after the break above the key 25,900 level. The short-term bias has shifted to bullish. If we get a pullback from the trendline, we can expect the buyers to step in around the 25,900 support to keep targeting new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the support to increase the bearish bets into new lows.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have Indian inflation data. Next week, the focus will be on the US NFP and CPI reports. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:UK GDP fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025The 0.1% fall in the three months to October 2025 was the first three monthly fall in real GDP since December 2023GDP in October is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%British Pound weakened following the GDP releaseGDP REPORT:The UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) released the monthly GDP report today and the data missed expectations almost across the board. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the three months to October 2025, following growth of 0.1% in the three months to September 2025 and 0.2% in the three months to August 2025. That's clearly a slowing trend. There were falls in two of the three main sectors. This was largely because of a 17.7% fall in the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, which made the largest contribution to the decrease in GDP during this period. In the month of October, GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.1%, following a similar contraction in September and no growth in August. MARKET REACTION:The British Pound weakened following the GDP release as the data strengthened the case for rate cuts. The probabilities for a rate cut at the upcoming meeting were already around 90%, so the data didn't materially change expectations. Nonetheless, it could weigh on the market pricing further down the curve as the market was pricing just another rate cut by the end of 2026. In fact, the total easing went from 57 bps to 60 bps following the GDP report.Next week, we have the UK employment and inflation data. More weakness should weigh on the pound as traders will start to expect more rate cuts in 2026. On the other hand, strong data will likely trigger a more hawkish repricing, giving the pound a boost. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

OPTION EXPIRIES:EUR/USD1.1800 (EUR 737.28 mn)1.1755 (EUR 565.70 mn)1.1700 (EUR 664.57 mn)1.1600 (EUR 935.93 mn)USD/JPY155.00 (US$ 1.52 bn)GBP/USD1.3415 (GBP 421.17 mn)1.3250 (GBP 781.13 mn)USD/CHF0.8000 (US$ 350.67 mn)0.7700 (US$ 300.00 mn)USD/CAD1.3940 (US$ 600.00 mn)1.3800 (US$ 652.00 mn)AUD/USD0.6650 (AUD 643.09 mn)EUR/GBP0.8800 (EUR 486.21 mn)0.8740 (EUR 411.89 mn)0.8700 (EUR 627.24 mn)0.8650 (EUR 513.20 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes.RELATED ARTICLES:Justin prepared a weekly overview before leaving for the holidays here. For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, the main highlight will be the UK GDP, although we will also get the final inflation readings for Germany, France and Spain. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks.The UK October GDP is expected at +0.1% vs -0.1% prior, while the Y/Y estimate is seen at +1.4% vs +1.1% prior. The data is not going to change anything for the BoE, with the central bank widely expected to cut at the upcoming meeting following soft labour market data and benign inflation figures.The only thing that could stop the BoE from cutting is notably strong employment and inflation data next week coming out just before the central bank's decision on Thursday. The market is pricing a 90% probability of a cut at the upcoming meeting and a total of 58 bps of easing by the end of 2026 (one more cut). In the American session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than a couple of Fed speakers. As a reminder, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps as expected at the recent meeting and signalled that the bar for further rate cuts would be higher. The central bank left the interest rate projections unchanged but downgraded inflation forecasts and upgraded growth forecasts. Fed Chair Powell was expected to sound as neutral as possible and stress data-dependency, but he leant on a more dovish side by downplaying the inflation risk and emphasising labour market weakness. The US dollar weakened on his comments and extended the losses further yesterday.Central bank speakers:13:00 GMT/08:00 ET - Fed's Paulson (dovish - voter in 2026)13:30 GMT/08:30 ET - Fed's Hammack (hawkish - voter in 2026)15:35 GMT/10:35 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish - non voter in 2026) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trump on Venezuela: It's going to be starting on land pretty soonTrump: Probably only one winner in AI, China or the USAJapan October industrial production +1.5% y/y vs +1.6% prelimCanada's Carney inches closer to a majority as Conservative switches partiesMagnitude 6.7 earthquake leads to 1m tsunami in JapanGPT-5.2 is looking like another leap forwardMarkets:Gold down $15 to $4267US 10-year yields up 1.6 bps to 4.15%WTI crude up 44-cents to $58.04Nikkei up 0.7%GBP leads, JPY lagsFlows were light to wrap up the week in Asia but stocks were lively. The Nikkei gapped higher at the open and continued above 51,000 and a test of the monthly high. It failed though and there was some profit taking as the 1.7% gain was cut in half.Gold also saw some selling after the big rally in US trade. It's under some mild pressure while silver is flat after hitting a record earlier.The FX market was struggling to find a reason to get going during a light day of news flow.The most-meaningful headline was Trump talking about an escalation to ground attacks in Venezuela. That's led to some moderate bids in crude but had little effect on the overall risk mood. It's something to keep an eye on. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +2.0%Prelim was +1.6%Capacity utilization +3.3% vs +2.5% prelim Japanese factory data this week has been firm, showing that the trade war isn't a problem so far. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi see exploded volumes on everything from Fed rates to geopolitical conflicts, a recent incident involving the Ukraine war highlights a critical vulnerability in the system.On November 15, a niche market on Polymarket regarding the Russian advance on the town of Myrnohrad exposed the pitfalls of relying on third-party data sources to settle financial contracts.Incredibly, you're able to bet on wars in real-time like they're a football game. Traders were betting on whether Russia would capture Myrnohrad by nightfall and $1.3 million was wagered.The problem in this case is that the bet would be settled by the daily interactive map produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a D.C.-based think tank.Someone realized the vulnerability and this great article from Responsible Statecraft highlights how it worked.The short version is that despite no verification on the ground that Russia had advanced, the ISW map was abruptly edited just before the market closed to show Russia controlling a key intersection. That triggered the payout due to a smart contract and it didn't matter that the following morning, the map was revised.The firm said the edit was unauthorized and subsequently removed a researcher from their staff page. They also made a statement saying the whole sordid practice of betting on wars using its maps was unwelcome."ISW strongly disapproves of such activities... for which we emphatically do not give consent," it said.With regulation from the CFTC currently lagging behind the explosive growth of these platforms, "insider trading" laws in this space remain virtually non-existent, leaving retail traders to navigate the fog of war at their own risk.Be careful if you're betting on something that's extremely unlikely if the arbiter can be manipulated. At the same time, I don't think anything can halt the march of event contracts as traders seem to love them. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

An earthquake shook up the Pacific coast of Japan approximately 130 km NE of Kuji.There is no damage expected but a tsunami warning has been issued. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US dollar is down on most fronts this year but it came after years of gains. The team at Scotiabank says don't get too comfortable with USD longs as the worst is yet to come.In their Focus On 2026 outlook, Scotia’s Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret are sticking to their guns: they see broad USD weakness playing out through 2026 and into 2027.The core thesis here is simple: Divergence.Scotia expects the Fed to cut rates significantly—taking the target rate down to 3% by the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, other major central banks are expected to make few policy changes or even tighten. It's the classic rate differential trade and erodes the two pillars that have held the dollar up for so long: higher relative growth and those juicy yield differentials. We’ve been hearing about the "end of US exceptionalism" for a while, but Scotia thinks the real pain point for the USD hits in Q2/Q3 of 2026 as the US labour market slows down and the Fed stays dovish.The Euro and Yen: The quiet climbersFor the euro, the ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, which should boost EUR/USD higher. Scotia is targeting a medium-term move into the 1.22-1.24 range (spot at 1.17).For the yen, with the BoJ expected to tighten modestly in 2026, the currency finally gets some love. The forecast sends USDJPY down to 140 by late 2026 and 130 by the end of 2027. (spot at 155.68)The Contrarian Trade: Buy the LoonieIf you’re looking for a non-consensus trade, this is it. The market is overwhelmingly short CAD right now, but Scotia sees a massive reversal incoming.While the Fed is cutting to 3%, Scotia expects the Bank of Canada to actually start hiking rates in the second half of 2026.They see the spread between the Fed and the BoC—which is currently a massive 175 bps—collapsing to just 25 bps by the end of next year. As that compression happens, their forecast puts USDCAD to 1.35 by year-end 2026, dropping to 1.30 by 2027. (spot at 1.3775)Emerging Markets: Caution on the PesoFor the carry traders, the outlook on the Mexican Peso (MXN) is a lot less rosy. Scotiabank is bearish here despite the yield.Why? Banxico is cutting rates just as volatility is picking up. The narrowing spread with the US, combined with trade uncertainty around the CUSMA review, makes the risk-reward look poor. They see USDMXN grinding higher to 19.00 next year and 20.40 by 2027.Scotiabank FX Forecasts at a GlanceHere are the key levels they are watching for the majors by December 2026:EURUSD: 1.21 USDCAD: 1.35 USDJPY: 140 GBPUSD: 1.38 USDMXN: 19.00If Scotia is right, the "higher for longer" US yields trade is dead, and the rotation out of the dollar is the big macro play for 2026. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a strong day for Japanese stocks as they ratchet higher to close out the week. The Nikkei 225 is up 1.5% and threatening the December high. It's a quick bounce back after the risk rout in Asia yesterday.The market has been trading sideways for the past six weeks after a sharp rise in October. Notably, there have been a series of higher lows in a sign of steady accumulation, even at the tail end of a great year. The Nikkei is up 27% this year so far and the yen is roughly flat (though it's been volatile). Lately, rising borrowing costs have been causing some angst and it increasingly looks like the Bank of Japan will hike rates on December 19. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Leaked internal benchmarks for GPT-5.2 "Thinking" have been posted by Sam Altman, and quite frankly, the numbers are ridiculous. We aren't talking about incremental gains here. For some reference:AIME 2025: 100.0%. It solved it. This is a big math test and it means that competition math is effectively "completed" for this model.ARC-AGI-2: This is the big one for the AGI purists. It jumped from 17.6% (GPT-5.1) to 52.9%. That is a massive leap in abstract reasoning and generalization—historically the Achilles' heel of LLMs.GDPval (Knowledge Work): This is the metric that matters for the economy. It flew from 38.8% to 70.9%.It's also worth noting that this highlights that scaling and reasoning are both advancing as this is a model that uses maximum reasoning efforts. Lately, it looked like OpenAI got caught with its pants down because Gemini scaled and it worked but this shows that reasoning is doing things that looked impossible.For users, the thinking models aren't that popular because they're slow for every day tasks to replace Google but for innovation, this is huge. What the dual-releases show is that both tracks are still working. Ultimately, there will be a 'best of both' that unlocks something beyond this.This is also big for the economy. GDPval tests well-specified knowledge work tasks spanning 44 occupations.At the moment, this release is being rolled out and we're going to see if the use cases match the numbers. What we aren't seeing is what the lesser models do. This release includes 5.2 Thinking but also GPT‑5.2 Instant and Pro.What OpenAI says:"Overall, GPT‑5.2 brings significant improvements in general intelligence, long-context understanding, agentic tool-calling, and vision—making it better at executing complex, real-world tasks end-to-end than any previous model."That's exciting but this screenshot is also making the rounds: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

When Mark Carney pulled off an improbable election win this year, he didn't earn a majority in parliament. That means his government could fall at any time, but he came very close.The Liberals won 169 seats, just three short of a 172 seat majority. In early November, Conservative MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor to join the Liberals. That got them to 170. Just now, Michael Ma (MP for Markham-Unionville) announced that he is switching from the Conservatives to the Liberals.That gets them to 171, just one seat shy.There are rumors they are courting others and if they get there, that will give Carney enough votes to survive another three years, at minimum. Even without that, now he just needs the support of one other voter to get any legislation passed.This move will also raise the stakes in any future by-elections as that could flip the numbers. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Will make a signing related to AIForget trying to get approval for 50 different statesSacks: Order gives tools to push back on most onerous state regulationsWe are taking steps for a single national standard on AIThe idea of dominance is that AI will be iterative, so the latest generation of AI designs the following one and that also maps to the physical world. I have a hard time believing that it won't be diffuse as the stakes are so high and the information nearly impossible to protect. Moreover, the world can only accept change so quickly.At the same time, there is a limit in real world applications. Once a car learns to drive a car, it's learned. Maybe you can refine it and make it more efficient but in time -- and probably not a long time -- others catch up. Perhaps you could 'dominate' for a time but only if you're essentially giving it away or using some kind of regulator capture that's hard to push across borders.Moreover, I continue to believe that the black swan of this century will be the collapse of the intellectual property system. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US is clearly trying to provoke some kind of conflict, if not a war. Trump wants regime change in Venezuela for some reason. That said, Trump likes to make threats so he could be trying to bluff Maduro into leaving the country.Yesterday, the US seized an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan crude.On Ukraine, Trump said he thought they were 'very close' to a deal. Again, it's hard to take what he says literally and get excited about peace in Ukraine or war in Venezuela. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

After the fireworks from the Australian jobs report yesterday, the schedule for the Friday Asian session (Thursday evening US time) is looking decidedly thin. We are scraping the bottom of the barrel for data, so don't expect too many idiosyncratic catalysts to drive the majors.The action kicks off early in the session at 02:00 GMT with a look at the Australian consumer via the LSEG IPSOS PCSI. While not as closely watched as the Westpac sentiment numbers, it gives us another data point on how the Aussie consumer is holding up under the weight of current rates. The prior read sat at 52.82.Later on, while Tokyo is lunching, we get the final reads on Japanese Industrial Production at 04:30 GMT.Industrial Output (MoM): The preliminary read was 1.4%.Capacity Utilization: Prior read was 2.5%.Unless we see a massive revision here, this is likely to be a non-event for the USD/JPY, which will continue to take its cues from Treasury yields and the broader risk tone.With a calendar this light, watch for month-end flows or profit-taking as traders square up positions ahead of the weekend.Here is the schedule for the session (All times GMT):02:00 GMTAU: LSEG IPSOS PCSI (Dec) — Prior: 52.8204:30 GMTJP: Industrial Production Revised (MoM) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.4%JP: Industrial Production Revised (YoY) (Oct) — Prelim: 1.6%JP: Capacity Utilization (MoM) (Oct) — Prior: 2.5%The central bank and political speaker list is also bare. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Major stock indices end mixed as Dow and S&P hit new records.NASDAQ falls on tech weaknessFederal Reserve announces reappointment of regional PresidentsSilver Skyrockets to Record Highs Over $64; Gold Chases $4,300WH Trump on Fed: More should be done.The US treasury auctioned $22B of 30 year bonds at a high yield of 4.773%Atlanta Fed GDPNow Upgrade: Q3 Growth Hits 3.6% as Net Exports SurgeFinancial sector strides amid technology slumpDow Jones Technical Analysis after Last Night's FOMC. Bulls Holding.US initial jobless claims 236K versus 220K estimate. US trade deficit narrows to -$52.8BUSD is moving lower the day after the FOMC decision. What are the technicals forecasting?investingLive European FX news wrap: SNB keeps rates unchanged, sounds more optimisticKey Takeaways:USD Weakness: The dollar fell against European majors and the Yen as US yields retreated.Jobless Claims: Initial claims normalized to 236K, confirming last week's drop was a holiday outlier.AUD Volatility: Soft internal jobs data undermined RBA hawkishness, though the pair bounced off key technical support.Commodities: Silver and Gold posted massive gains, while Crude Oil successfully tested critical support from November.USD Closes Mixed as Claims Data Weighs on YieldsThe US Dollar finished the session on the back foot, giving back recent gains against most major counterparts. The greenback struggled to find demand as US Treasury yields softened across the curve, driven by a "normalization" in labor market data.The Closing Scoreboard: The Dollar fell against the defensive and European currencies:CHF: -0.69%EUR: -0.43%JPY: -0.32%CAD: -0.16%GBP: -0.05%However, the greenback managed to hold onto gains against the antipodal currencies:AUD: +0.16%NZD: +0.10%US Jobless Claims: The "Holiday Noise" FadesThe primary catalyst for the dollar's intraday weakness was the release of the weekly US Initial Jobless Claims.Last week, the market was momentarily confused when claims dropped sharply to 191K, well below the 200K psychological level and the 220K estimate. However, analysts warned that the data was heavily distorted by the Thanksgiving holiday seasonality.That caution proved correct today. Claims rebounded to 236K, coming in above the 220K estimate and testing the upper end of the recent 205K–240K range. The "weaker" jobs picture (higher claims) was welcomed by bond bulls, helping to push yields lower and, by extension, weighing on the USD.AUDUSD: Soft Jobs Data Undercuts RBA HawksThe Australian Dollar saw two-way volatility following a domestic jobs report that was weaker than the headline suggested. While the unemployment rate came in at 4.3% (beating the 4.4% expectation), the internal details painted a picture of a softening labor market:Full-time jobs: Plunged by –56.5K (erasing the prior month's +55.3K gain).Participation Rate: Dropped to 66.7% (from 67.0%), which artificially suppressed the unemployment rate.The RBA Impact: This report comes just 24 hours after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock sounded notably hawkish, leading markets to price in a 33% chance of a March rate hike. Today’s data dampens that speculation. The sharp drop in full-time employment suggests the "cooling" the RBA has been waiting for is arriving, likely pushing rate hike expectations off the table.Technical Outlook: Despite the fundamental headwind, the AUDUSD showed resilience. The pair sold off to a low of 0.6627, testing a key swing area defined by the lows between 0.66247 and 0.6635. Buyers stepped in at this support zone, and the price bounced roughly 16 pips off the lows heading into the close.Treasury Yields: The Short End Leads the Way DownUS Treasury yields moved lower on the back of the jobless claims report, with the curve steepening slightly as the short end outperformed.2-Year Yield: 3.525% (–4.0 bps)5-Year Yield: 3.715% (–4.0 bps)10-Year Yield: 4.142% (–2.1 bps)30-Year Yield: 4.793% (–0.2 bps)30-Year Auction Results: The Treasury’s auction of 30-year bonds was solid, earning a grade of "B." While there was no disaster, the auction failed to spark a significant follow-through rally in the long bond, leaving the 30-year yield essentially flat on the day.Commodities & Crypto: Precious Metals ShineCrude Oil Tests Support Crude oil prices remained under pressure, falling $0.65 (–1.12%) to settle at $57.77. Critically, the price tested the major support level from November 25 at $57.10, hitting a low of $57.01 before bouncing. Holding this level is vital for the bulls to prevent a deeper breakdown.Gold & Silver Surge Precious metals were the standout performers of the day, capitalizing on lower yields and a softer dollar:Gold: Rallied sharply by $45.41 (+1.08%) to close at $4,273.Silver: Continued its parabolic run, surging to $63.47. (For a deep dive into the technical breakout on metals, [CLICK HERE]).Bitcoin Consolidates Bitcoin remained relatively quiet amidst the volatility in traditional assets, dipping slightly by $135 (–0.15%) to trade at $91,921, as it consolidates recent gains. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The major U.S. equity indices finished the session mixed, reflecting a sharp divergence between traditional blue-chip strength and renewed anxiety in high-growth technology names. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both closed at fresh record highs, supported by strength in industrials, financials, and defensive sectors. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite ended the day in negative territory as investors continued to rotate out of mega-cap tech amid growing fears of an AI-driven bubble.Tech Sector Under Pressure as AI Concerns Re-EmergeThe primary drag on market sentiment came from Oracle, whose shares plunged 10.83% after the company reported better-than-expected EPS but missed revenue estimates. The real shock, however, was Oracle’s massive increase in capital expenditures, far above Wall Street’s expectations. This raised concerns that companies may be overspending on AI infrastructure at a pace that is not yet matched by revenue growth — a dynamic that has sparked recurring volatility in the sector.Oracle’s sell-off spilled into the broader semiconductor space:Nvidia: –1.53%Micron: –1.99%Intel: –3.11%AMD: Flat on the day after recovering from earlier lossesThese moves reinforced the theme that investors remain unsettled about the durability of AI-related earnings momentum.Record Closes for the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000Despite the tech weakness, broader market strength carried major indices to impressive milestones:Index Closing LevelsDow Jones Industrial Average: +646.26 points (+1.34%) to 48,704.01 — new all-time highS&P 500: +14.32 points (+0.21%) to 6,901.00 — new all-time highNasdaq Composite: –60.30 points (–0.25%) to 23,593.86Russell 2000 (Small Caps): +30.997 points (+1.21%) to 2,590.60 — new all-time highThe standout was the Dow, which surged more than 600 points as investors favored value and cyclicals over high-growth tech. The Russell 2000 also continued its strong breakout, suggesting improving breadth and greater participation across the equity market.Bottom LineThe market landscape remains highly bifurcated. Blue chips and small caps are thriving, powering major indices to historic highs, while tech megacaps and AI-exposed stocks face increased scrutiny and profit-taking. Investors appear to be rebalancing portfolios toward sectors tied to economic resilience rather than speculative growth. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

This is something of a formality but the Federal Reserve board of governors has input on the regional Presidents. In any case, there was unanimous approval of all of them for five year terms.Now this could have been more contentions if Trump was able to stack the governors, who then could have stacked the regional offices. However that would have created some real drama. In any case, this is one to safely ignore for another five years. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The price of silver is sprinting to yet another record, surging approximately $2.00 (3.40%) on the day. This latest move caps a historic run for the metal, which is now up over 120% year-to-date.Silver’s explosive move to over $64.00 per ounce in 2025 is being driven by a "perfect storm" of five fundamental factors:Chronic Supply Deficit: For the fifth consecutive year, global demand has outpaced supply. Mining output remains flat while above-ground stockpiles have plummeted to critical lows.Explosive Industrial Demand: The "green" revolution is draining physical inventory. New solar panel technologies, EVs, and AI data centers are consuming record amounts of silver for its superior electrical conductivity.Strategic Stockpiling in Asia: China and India have shifted from "just-in-time" buying to aggressive stockpiling. India is importing record volumes, while Chinese industry secures reserves to prevent shortages.The "Gold Effect": With gold breaking $3,000/oz, silver has surged as a more affordable "catch-up" trade and a hard-asset hedge against sticky inflation and new tariffs.Technical Breakout: Smashing through the historic $50 resistance level triggered a wave of speculative and algorithmic buying, creating a self-reinforcing price loop.Silver Technical Analysis: Bulls in Total ControlLooking at the daily chart, the technical structure remains decisively bullish. The buyers established a strong base during the correction in October and November, where price lows held against a key trend line. This gave the market the confidence to push higher.After testing the October high near $54.46 in mid-November, the price broke out on November 28th and raced toward the $60.00 level. Following an initial peak near $59.35, the rally extended above the psychological $60.00 mark on Tuesday.Crucially, the price also shattered the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $59.97, pouring fuel on the bullish fire. The momentum over the last three days has been relentless:Tuesday Low: $57.61Thursday High: $64.303-Day Move: +$6.70 (+11.63%)Key Levels to Watch: Technically, the price has now breached the 200.0% Fibonacci extension at $63.37. This level now acts as immediate risk support for aggressive traders, with the $60.00 level providing major support for conservative positions. A move below these levels could signal corrective action. On the topside, the market is in "blue sky" territory on any break above today's high of $64.30.Gold Analysis: Breaking Resistance, Eyeing All-Time HighsGold is also enjoying a strong session, currently up $45.50 (1.08%) trading at $4,273.80.While Silver has outperformed in percentage terms this year, Gold’s rally is nothing short of historic. The yellow metal is up $1,650 (62.87%) year-to-date and sits just $110 away from its all-time high of $4,381.48.Fundamental Drivers for Gold:US Debt & Debasement: With US debt passing $38 trillion, investors view Treasuries as increasingly risky, buying gold to hedge against inevitable money printing and currency dilution.Central Bank Buying: Nations like China and India are aggressively swapping US dollars for gold to "sanction-proof" their reserves, creating a massive price floor.The Fed's "Stealth QE": The Federal Reserve continues to cut rates despite sticky inflation, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold vs. bonds.Geopolitics: Ongoing trade wars and conflicts in the Middle East and Europe have built a permanent "fear premium" into the price.Western FOMO: After sitting out the early rally, Western institutional and retail investors have flooded back into Gold ETFs, chasing performance and safety.Gold Technical OutlookTechnically, Gold is breaking out of a consolidation phase. The price is pushing above the recent November and December highs located between $4,243.92 and $4,262.32.Today’s session high reached $4,285.98, confirming the breakout. This move opens the door for a potential run toward the year’s high—and the all-time record—at $4,380.79.Conclusion and Video CommentaryIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends) walk through the silver and gold technical landscape, identify the precise risk parameters traders should monitor, and outline the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.