European Central Bank September monetary policy meeting minutes are due at 1130 GMT/ 0730 US Eastern time European Central Bank Board Member Philip R. Lane participates on a roundtable discussion and Q&A at the Irish Association of Investment Managers in Dublin, Ireland. 1500 GMT / 1100 US Eastern time This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The times listed below are in GMT / US Eastern time format1230/0830 (via pre-recorded video) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gives welcome remarks before the Community Bank Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Board.I don't expect Powell to give us any insights on his policy outlook given 1. the event and 2. its pre-recorded. With the drying up of government data the Fed is not flying blind, it has other data sources, but it is flying through fog. 1235/0835 Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman gives opening remarks and participates in fireside chat before the Community Bank Conference hosted by the Fed.1445/1045 Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman moderates "Future of Community Banking: Challenges and Opportunities" discussion before the Community Bank Conference 1645/1245 Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr speaks on the economic outlook before an Economic Club of Minnesota luncheon, in Minneapolis1700/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in fireside chat before the Springfield Area Chamber of Commerce1700/1300 Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari moderates a conversation with Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr before the Economic Club1945/1545 Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on "Looking Toward the Future" before the Community Bank Conference, and gives closing remarks0140/2140 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in moderated conversation before the Silicon Valley Directors Exchange This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Appearance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee – Supplementary Budget Estimates 2025-26 – CanberraGovernor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Christopher KentFrom 9am Sydney time2300 GMT / 1800 US Eastern time--At its September meeting, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 3.60 %, following three cuts earlier in 2025. The decision, while broadly expected, carried a notably “hawkish hold” tone, with the bank flagging risks that inflation in the September quarter might come in stronger than expected. As a result, market bets on a November cut weakened significantly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann is speaking Thursdayat 0830 GMT / 0430 US Eastern timekeynote speech, on prices & consumption, "Explaining the consumption gap"following Mann's address, there will be a response from former MPC member Michael Saunders before both panellists take part in a Q&A This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

1215 GMT / 0815 Eastern time Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, will discuss productivity, competition and innovation in Canada’s financial sector.---The latest policy move from the Bank of Canada came on September 17, 2025, when it cut its overnight policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 % — the first rate cut after a six-month pause — citing a weakening economy, reduced upside inflation risks, and falling job market strength.The next scheduled policy date is October 29, 2025 The Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report will be released at the same time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.In Open market operations (OMOs) the PBOC inject 612bn yuan at an unchanged rate of 1.4%after accounting for maturities today it's a 1451.3bn yuan drain This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China tightens rare-earth export rules, imposes new dual-use licensing from December 1China has announced sweeping new restrictions on rare-earth exports, requiring both foreign and domestic companies to obtain special licences for items with potential military applications, in a move that underscores tightening controls over materials critical to global technology and defence supply chains.The Ministry of Commerce said that from December 1, foreign firms and individuals seeking to export rare-earth products classified as “dual-use items” — materials with both civilian and military applications — must first secure a dual-use items export licence. Domestic exporters will also be required to declare the final destination country or region of shipments.In addition, the ministry said exports related to the design, development, production or use of weapons of mass destruction will not be approved, with that restriction taking immediate effect. Export applications to overseas military users and to importers or end-users on official watchlists will also be rejected in principle.The announcement comes amid heightened geopolitical competition over control of critical minerals used in semiconductors, electric vehicles, magnets, and advanced defence systems. China dominates global rare-earth production and has in recent years used export curbs as leverage in technology and trade disputes.Analysts said the latest measures could further strain supply chains and accelerate efforts by the U.S., Japan, and Europe to diversify sourcing and processing capacity for rare-earth elements. More:Some items cannot be exported without approvalThese include technologies and carriers related to rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic manufacturing, and recycling of rare earth secondary resourcesChinese citizens, organizations shall not, without permission, provide any substantive assistance and support for overseas rare earth mining, smelting separation, metal smelting, magnet manufacturing This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Former Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe said the central bank could raise interest rates if inflation expectations continue to rise and push up underlying price pressures, but warned that another hike this year would be hard to justify given weak economic momentum.In an interview with Reuters, Wakatabe—long seen as a monetary policy dove—endorsed the BOJ’s cautious approach to normalisation, saying rate hikes should depend on steady economic improvement and a sustainable path to the 2% inflation target. He pointed to soft data, a stagnating labour market, and the risk of negative third-quarter GDP, suggesting little case for tightening at the December policy meeting.While noting the BOJ must coordinate closely with the government of incoming prime minister Sanae Takaichi, he said the bank need not keep rates low simply to finance fiscal spending. “If inflation expectations rise and push up underlying inflation, the BOJ can raise interest rates — it needs to do so to prevent overheating,” he said.Wakatabe, who served as deputy governor until 2023 and remains close to Takaichi, said the bank has made no commitment to a specific timetable for further hikes. The yen recently hit an eight-month low after markets interpreted Takaichi’s leadership win as reducing the likelihood of near-term tightening. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

People's Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%. How the process works:Daily midpoint setting: Each morning, the PBOC sets a midpoint for the yuan against a basket of currencies, primarily the US dollar. The central bank takes into account factors such as market supply and demand, economic indicators, and international currency market fluctuations. The midpoint serves as a reference point for that day's trading.The trading band: The PBOC allows the yuan to move within a specified range around the midpoint. The trading band is set at +/- 2%, meaning the yuan could appreciate or depreciate by a maximum of 2% from the midpoint during a single trading day. This range is subject to change by the PBOC based on economic conditions and policy objectives.Intervention: If the yuan's value approaches the limit of the trading band or experiences excessive volatility, the PBOC may intervene in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling the yuan to stabilize its value. This helps maintain a controlled and gradual adjustment of the currency's value. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian Melbourne Institute survey of consumer inflation expectations for October 2025 4.8%prior was 4.7%The latest figure of 4.8 % is up slightly from 4.7 % in September. September itself represented a rebound from August’s lower level (3.9%) prior to that. Historically, inflation expectations in recent years generally fluctuated in the 3–5 % range, so 4.8 % is toward the upper end of recent norms, though not unprecedented. The fact that expectations are rising — rather than continuing a downward descent — suggests households may be becoming more alert to persistent inflation pressures.---Higher expectations make it harder for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to anchor inflation expectations, potentially reducing its flexibility to ease rates. If consumers expect inflation near 5%, that may influence wage demands, pricing behavior, and cost-of-living adjustments.---This is a monthly survey run by the Melbourne Institute (University of Melbourne)asks households about how much they expect consumer prices (inflation) to change over the coming 12 monthsIt is part of a broader Macroeconomic Reports series that also covers wage expectations, consumer sentiment, and other indicators. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he is considering bringing full-year appropriations bills — including legislation to fund the Pentagon and military pay — to the Senate floor for a vote, as bipartisan talks on a short-term funding measure remain stalled. Via Axios: With negotiations over a temporary stopgap bill frozen, Thune is weighing alternative approaches to end the government shutdown, though they would likely prove slow and complex.Passing a bundle of spending bills like the one the Senate advanced earlier this year would require unanimous consent, making it procedurally difficult. However, Thune could instead move ahead with individual appropriations bills that have already cleared the House, such as the Defense funding package, to reopen parts of the government incrementally. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A senior White House official said the latest agreement aimed at securing a pause in fighting and the release of hostages will be presented to the Israeli cabinet on Thursday.If approved, Israel will begin withdrawing its forces to a designated line, a process expected to take less than 24 hours. That pullback would trigger the start of a 72-hour ceasefire period, during which Hamas is expected to begin releasing hostages.According to the U.S. assessment, hostage releases could start as early as Monday, though Hamas may attempt to move sooner once the initial conditions are met. The timeline hinges on Israel’s rapid implementation of the withdrawal once the cabinet vote passes.The official said Washington remains closely engaged with both sides to ensure the sequence proceeds smoothly — first the Israeli approval and repositioning, then the formal commencement of the 72-hour clock, followed by the initial hostage handovers. ---Impacts on markets to eye:Oil: Potential ceasefire could briefly ease geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets.FX: Reduced regional tensions may temper safe-haven demand.Gold: Any sign of durable truce could weigh modestly on short-term haven flows.--Earlier:Trump says Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace PlanFox: "Hamas accepts Trump peace plan ending 2 years of war in Gaza, returning hostages" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says that while the surge in global equities and the dominance of major technology stocks bear some resemblance to past market bubbles, the current rally remains underpinned by solid fundamentals rather than speculation. I had some on this earlierGoldman Sachs says stocks aren’t in a bubble yet but risks risingdigging a little more now:In the note, Goldman analysts said history shows bubbles typically form around transformative technologies, marked by soaring valuations, excessive leverage, and widespread investor exuberance. Some aspects of today’s market echo those patterns — notably rising valuations, market concentration, and growing capital intensity — but the bank sees key differences.The appreciation in technology stocks, it said, has so far been driven by real earnings growth, with the largest companies boasting exceptionally strong balance sheets. Moreover, the AI boom remains concentrated among a few incumbents rather than being flooded by speculative newcomers — a hallmark of past bubbles.Goldman noted that valuations are stretched but not extreme, citing comparisons of price-to-earnings, PEG, and price-to-book ratios with historical bubble periods. While not yet at alarm levels, the bank warned that market concentration and intensifying competition in AI warrant caution, urging investors to maintain diversified portfolios. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump had the announcement on his own social meida app:Trump says Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace PlanFox reports Hamas "has agreed to a peace deal pushed by President Donald Trump to end the war in Gaza and return the hostages".More:The exact terms of the agreement remain unclearAll the hostages were also supposed to be freed within 72-hours of an agreement being reached, though Hamas on Saturday signaled this may be unrealistic as it claims some of the deceased are believed to be buried under rubble. More via US politics siter Axios:According to a senior official who spoke with Axios, the remaining hostages being held by Hamas, alive first and then deceased, will be released 72 hours after the Israeli Political & Security Cabinet approves the ceasefire agreement decided today in Egypt. The assessment is that the release will happen on Saturday or Sunday, at the latest Monday. Meanwhile Israel PM Netanyahu says will convene his government Thursday to approve the agreement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Britain’s housing market lost further momentum in September, while business confidence slumped to its lowest level in three years amid growing anxiety over Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ upcoming budget.The RICS house price balance improved slightly to -15 from -18 in August, indicating fewer surveyors reported price declines, though buyer demand and agreed sales remained weak for a third straight month. RICS analyst Tarrant Parsons said market sentiment remains cautious, with uncertainty over potential tax measures in the November 26 budget weighing on activity.Reports suggest Reeves may seek new housing-related tax measures to meet fiscal targets. Economists also linked the recent drop in the Halifax house price index to pre-budget jitters.In the rental market, landlord listings fell to their lowest since 2020, while tenant demand stayed firm, pointing to rents rising around 3% over the next year.A separate ICAEW business survey found corporate sentiment had deteriorated sharply, with 60% of firms citing the tax burden as a growing challenge. The institute warned that falling confidence, weak domestic demand, and rising employment costs threaten the modest growth needed to stabilise public finances. ---Market-impact thoguths: FX: Rising fiscal uncertainty and soft housing data could weigh on sterling. Rates: Weak sentiment may reinforce expectations for slower BoE tightening or earlier rate cuts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan:No detail offered up as yet. ---If this does become a reduction in Middle East tensions it should mean some of the bid in gold dissipating, easier oil prices still, lower yen and CHF, at the margin. A benefit for 'risk' also. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Square has unveiled new Bitcoin tools for merchants, allowing sellers to instantly convert card sales into Bitcoin and, starting November 10, to accept Bitcoin payments directly at the point of sale with zero fees.The company said the new products mark a major step toward making Bitcoin usable as everyday money, positioning it alongside traditional payment methods for retail and small businesses.“These products are a big step toward making Bitcoin everyday money,” Square said in a statement. “They also highlight the need for a policy unlock: a de minimis tax exemption for everyday Bitcoin transactions. Your morning coffee shouldn’t trigger capital gains.”The company, part of Block Inc., said its goal is to simplify the use of Bitcoin for both merchants and consumers while advocating for tax rules that would remove small-scale crypto purchases from capital gains reporting.Square’s rollout underscores Block’s broader mission to integrate Bitcoin into daily commerce, advancing CEO Jack Dorsey’s long-stated vision of an open financial system built on digital assets. ---Potential market-impact: Crypto: Square’s integration could boost real-world Bitcoin adoption and merchant use. Equities: Highlights Block’s growing focus on crypto infrastructure, potentially lifting sentiment toward BTC-linked fintechs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Danske Bank says the yen’s rapid depreciation could soon test levels that might prompt official intervention by Japan’s authorities.Analysts noted that the yen’s slide following Sanae Takaichi’s leadership win, which sparked expectations of looser fiscal and monetary policy, has revived speculation about possible action from the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance to stabilise the currency.Analysts recalled that when Japan last intervened in 2022–2023, officials under then Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda considered a roughly 4% two-week yen drop as a trigger. Based on that precedent, the bank estimated a potential intervention threshold for USD/JPY around 154–155. --- Who is going to first to say 154-155 "line in the sand"? Before getting it kicked in their face? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says U.S. equities may show some signs of exuberance but stop short of bubble territory, with market gains still supported by solid fundamentals.The bank noted that while tech valuations remain elevated, the sector’s leading firms are financially robust, and much of the AI-driven growth is concentrated among a handful of dominant players.Goldman concluded that current valuations are not yet at historic bubble levels, though it advised investors to maintain diversified portfolios given pockets of over-optimism in certain segments. ---Impacts to eye include:Equities: Suggests room for further gains but highlights need for selectivity within tech.FX: Reinforces risk-on sentiment while curbing fears of imminent correction.Rates: Supports moderate growth outlook, reducing urgency for defensive positioning. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Trump administration has decided not to impose tariffs on generic drugs, narrowing the scope of its ongoing pharmaceutical trade investigation.The Wall Street Journal carry the report. More:Officials confirmed that the White House is no longer actively considering Section 232 tariffs on generic pharmaceuticals under the national-security probe initiated earlier this year. The decision follows internal debate over whether to use tariffs to bring drug manufacturing back to the U.S.President Trump had previously threatened 100% tariffs on name-brand drugs, though he later delayed implementation to allow for negotiations with pharmaceutical companies. Generics—accounting for roughly 90% of all U.S. prescriptions—will be exempt for now, according to White House and Commerce Department spokespeople.The move marks a major scaling-back of the Commerce Department’s initial investigation, which had targeted both generic and non-generic medicines as well as drug ingredients. It also reverses an earlier campaign pledge to restore production of essential generic drugs to the United States. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.