Its an almost empty economic and event calendar in the Asia-Pacific timezone today. Well, it is holidays! Professional market traders won't really fire up again until next Monday, January 5. Nevertheless, we will be getting the Bank of Japan's 'Summary of Opinions' from the December meeting at 2350 GMTwhich is 1850 US Eastern time The December BoJ meeting was an interesting one. The Bank raised its short term cash rate in January of 2025 and then followed up, finally, at the December meeting with another rate hikes. From the day:Bank of Japan bookends the yearYen slides further after BOJ press conferenceMore recently, from Christmas Day!, we heard again from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda:BOJ’s Ueda sees wages and inflation reinforcing rate-hike caseThere seems little doubt the Bank is on a continuing rate hike path, the question we are all asking is "when is the next one?" Each communication from the BoJ will be scoured for clues. -The Bank of Japan (BOJ) releases a "Summary of Opinions" after each monetary policy meeting. It serves as a record of the discussion and views of the Policy Board members on various economic and financial issues.Key points about the Summary:The summary includes the views of the Policy Board members on economic conditions, both domestically and globally. This includes assessments of economic growth, inflation, and employment trends, among other indicators.The summary also outlines the Policy Board members' views on the effectiveness of the BOJ's current monetary policy measures, including interest rate policy, asset purchases, and yield curve control. Members may discuss the pros and cons of these policies and their potential impact on the economy.The summary includes discussions on the outlook for monetary policy and the potential risks to the economy. Board members may express their views on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy changes, as well as the potential impact of external factors such as global economic conditions.The summary also includes any dissenting views among the Policy Board members. If a member disagrees with the majority view on a particular issue, they may express their own opinion and rationale.In a few week's time we'll get the Minutes of this meeting. The Minutes are a more detailed record of the discussions and decisions made during the meeting.The Minutes include a more complete record of the views expressed, including any dissents or alternative opinions that may not be included in the summary.The Summary of Opinions is typically released a few days after the policy meeting, while the Minutes are published about a month later. This means that the Summary of Opinions can provide more up-to-date information on the BOJ's current stance and view on the economy and monetary policy.The Summary of Opinions is usually written in a more accessible language, making it easier to understand the BOJ's views on monetary policy.The Minutes, on the other hand, are often more technical and may require a deeper understanding of economics and financial markets.The Summary of Opinions is typically shorter than the Minutes. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

We are all is trying to gauge if this is the "Peace Dividend" moment or just more of the usual negotiation bluster.Trump says they are in the "final stages" of talking and believes both Putin and Zelensky want a deal.Promises a "strong" security agreement is coming. He’s calling European leaders today and plans to call Putin immediately after his current meeting."I don't have a deadline," but the pace suggests he wants this settled soonThe "final stages" comment is the potentially a positive one for the euro. If the market starts to actually believe a ceasefire is imminent, watch for EUR/USD to catch a bid on the hope of lower energy costs and an end to the "war discount" on European growth. I would also expect even more downward pressure on oil prices.We might also see better risk appetite in general but given the timing of these headlines and that lack of real impacts on global growth, I'm not so sure. Defense companies could also weaken.The "Putin is very serious about peace" is a line we’ve heard before. The market will need to see more than just a phone call to start pricing in a structural shift in geopolitics. Keep an eye on the headlines—if an in-person meeting with Putin actually gets scheduled "soon," it could be.Headlines from Trump:Will speak to the European leadersWe're in the final stages of talkingThere are economic benefits to UkraineSays Putin is very serious about peaceCan call Europeans todaySays security agreement will be strongThere will be a security agreementI don't have deadlineCalling Putin after meetingWill have a great meeting todayWhen asked if he will meet Putin again soon, says 'depends'Think both Ukraine, Russian presidents want to make a deal This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

One of the big surprises of 2025 was OPEC+ abandoning efforts to prop up the price of oil. For years, OPEC had been a strong market backstop, managing supply to maintain a floor under crude. However, a combination of eroding market share, resilient non-OPEC production finally forced a change in strategy and perhaps a nudge from US President Trump led to an abrupt change of strategy.The shift began in the spring of 2025, when Saudi Arabia and its allies signaled they were no longer willing to shoulder the burden of production cuts while producers in the US, Guyana, and Brazil continued to hit record output levels. By mid-year, the 'price-over-volume' mantra was replaced by a more aggressive pursuit of market share, reminiscent of the 2014 price war.Internal tensions reached a breaking point as several member nations, notably Iraq and Kazakhstan, repeatedly overproduced their assigned quotas. Frustrated by the lack of discipline, the core leadership decided that a period of lower prices would serve as a 'reset' to force adherence to future agreements.OPEC may have also wanted to punish US shale players (the source of all supply growth in the past decade) for the 'drill, baby, drill' mantra.Today, WTI crude fell $1.61 to $56.74. That wipes out the gains on Monday/Tuesday and leaves oil flat on the week and it continues to sit close to five year lows.As we move toward 2026, the question is no longer when OPEC+ will cut again, but how long they can tolerate the fiscal pain of sub-$70 oil in their quest to reassert dominance over the global energy landscape. Ultimately, the cure for low prices is low prices. US shale producers cut drilling budgets and will continue to do so. Few are making money below $60 WTI as costs have far outstripped crude prices since covid.My guess is that buying crude will be one of the great trades of 2026 -- similar to how it was in late 2020. The question is 'when to buy?'. There is a school of argument that all the excess oil is already priced in and that global balances aren't as bad as they seem. I'll be sympathetic to that argument if we can get through the winter without a disorderly oil breakdown. So I believe the trade will be to buy a puke in the oil market below $40 or to wait until April when the seasonals begin to improve. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Mixed sector performances as tech and healthcare show gainsThe US stock market today presents a diverse picture, with sectors displaying varied performances, reflecting both investor optimism and cautious sentiment ingrained in today's trading dynamics.? Sector OverviewTechnology Sector: The technology sector shows promise with NVDA leading gains at 0.68%, highlighting positive investor sentiment. ORCL and PLTR also showcase mild additions of 0.39% and 0.63% respectively, reflecting ongoing strength in software infrastructure.Semiconductors: Displaying moderate mixed performances, with MU advancing by 0.46% and LRCX increasing by 0.62%. However, AVGO edges down by 0.21%, symbolizing sector-specific fluctuations.Consumer Electronics:AAPL increases by 0.23%, suggesting soft rally traction driven by recent product launches from major players.Financial Sector: Relatively stable, led by JPM and V with marginal gains of 0.05% and 0.19%. However, some instruments like BX are down by 0.23%, signifying pockets of apprehension.Communication Services: A lukewarm response as GOOGL remains nearly flat at 0.02%, while META sees slight losses of 0.15%.Healthcare:LLY posts a 0.19% increase, illustrating potential in drug manufacturing concerns amidst broader market interest.? Market Mood and TrendsOverall, today's market reflects a mixed sentiment, juxtaposing growth aspirations against emerging cautiousness. Successful performances in technology suggest continuing innovation-led resilience while subdued movements in communication services and financials indicate areas of hesitation due to market uncertainties.? Strategic RecommendationsInvestors might consider:Increasing positions in the technology and semiconductor sectors due to evident bullish activity.Minding potential overvaluations or corrections in certain financial stocks, adjusting their exposure as necessary.Monitoring emerging trends in healthcare as pharmaceutical entities look promising amidst an evolutionary market landscape.Staying abreast of real-time data is crucial. For further insights, visit InvestingLive.com and explore our extensive market coverage to bolster your investment strategies amid evolving conditions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The TL;DR summary:Tokyo core CPI slowed to 2.3% y/y in Dec (vs. prev 2.8%, exp 2.5%), driven by lower energy and utility costs.Core-core CPI eased to 2.6% y/y (prev 2.8%), but remains above the BOJ’s 2% target, signalling persistent demand-side pressure.Headline CPI cooled to 2.0% y/y (prev 2.7%), marking the first clear deceleration since August.Data softens urgency, not direction, of BOJ policy; inflation remains consistent with gradual further tightening after last week’s hike to 0.75%.Market read-through: modest yen softness near term, JGB front-end consolidation, Nikkei supported by reduced immediate tightening risk.The screenshot above is via TradingEconomics. ---Tokyo inflation cooled more than expected in December, but remained comfortably above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, keeping the policy normalisation story intact even as near-term urgency eased.Core consumer prices in the capital, excluding fresh food, rose 2.3% y/y, slowing from 2.8% in November and undershooting market expectations of 2.5%. The deceleration was driven largely by lower utility and energy costs, alongside a moderation in food price gains.A closely watched “core-core” measure that strips out both fresh food and energy also softened, easing to 2.6% y/y from 2.8% previously, while headline CPI slowed to 2.0% from 2.7%. Together, the figures marked the first clear easing in Tokyo inflation momentum since August.Despite the slowdown, all three gauges remain at or above the BOJ’s inflation target, reinforcing the view that underlying price pressures have become entrenched. Tokyo CPI is widely regarded as a leading indicator for nationwide trends, suggesting inflation is cooling gradually rather than collapsing.The data follows last week’s Bank of Japan decision to raise its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in roughly three decades. Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed that further tightening will follow if wages and prices evolve in line with the central bank’s outlook, while deliberately avoiding guidance on pace or terminal levels.Markets now see the December data as consistent with the BOJ’s baseline scenario: inflation easing as energy effects fade, but remaining sufficiently firm to justify additional rate hikes over time. Analysts continue to expect a gradual hiking cycle, with rates rising roughly every six months and a terminal level near 1.25%, assuming wage growth remains solid. BOJ policy implicationsThe softer-than-expected core print slightly reduces pressure for an imminent follow-up hike but does little to derail the broader tightening trajectory. With core inflation still above target and wage dynamics supportive, the BOJ is likely to proceed cautiously. A pause seems likely at the next meeting, on January 22–23, 2026. Market impact: yen, JGBs, Nikkei:Yen: The downside CPI surprise may cap near-term yen gains, especially if US yields remain elevated, but persistent above-target inflation limits scope for sustained depreciation.JGBs: Front-end yields may consolidate after the recent sell-off, though the medium-term bias remains toward higher yields as policy normalisation continues.Nikkei: Equities may welcome reduced near-term tightening pressure, particularly rate-sensitive sectors, while exporters remain sensitive to yen swings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda spoke at the Meeting of Councillors of Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) in Tokyo in Thursday, December 25, 2025. The title of the speech, reflective of its content, was "Toward the Achievement of the Price Stability Target Accompanied by Wage Increases".Summary:Ueda said underlying inflation is steadily approaching 2%, supported by tight labour markets and changing wage-price behaviour. With real rates still very low, the BOJ is prepared to keep raising rates as economic conditions improve.-Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan’s underlying inflation is continuing to accelerate gradually and is steadily approaching the central bank’s 2% target, reinforcing the case for further interest-rate increases as economic conditions improve.Speaking to Japan’s business lobby Keidanren, Ueda said tight labour market conditions are likely to persist barring a major economic shock, putting sustained upward pressure on wages. He pointed to irreversible structural factors, including Japan’s declining working-age population, as key drivers of ongoing labour shortages.Ueda said companies are increasingly passing on higher labour and raw-material costs not only for food, but across a wider range of goods and services. This, he argued, is evidence that Japan is finally seeing a virtuous cycle take hold in which wages and prices rise together — a dynamic the Bank of Japan has long sought to establish.“Amid tightening labour market conditions, firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour has changed significantly in recent years,” Ueda said, adding that achievement of the 2% inflation target, accompanied by wage growth, is now steadily approaching.With real interest rates still deeply negative, Ueda reiterated that the BOJ remains prepared to continue raising rates if its baseline outlook for the economy and prices is realised. He stressed that policy adjustments would be calibrated in line with economic and inflation developments rather than follow a preset path.Adjusting the degree of monetary accommodation, Ueda said, will allow the central bank to smoothly secure its inflation goal while supporting sustainable, long-term economic growth — signalling confidence that Japan’s shift away from ultra-easy policy is becoming increasingly durable. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Quick Summary:Success in Forex isn't about predicting the win; it's about defining where you are wrong. This guide covers the 3-step risk process: Defining (Technical levels), Limiting (Position sizing/proximity), and Accepting (Mental edge).A Text That Boosted My Ego (And Proved My Point)A few years ago, at a social gathering, I met someone through a mutual friend who traded Forex. Naturally, we got to talking shop. During the conversation, I hammered home a point I make to anyone who will listen: risk management is the most important aspect of trading.I didn't hear from her for a long time. But this week, I received a surprise text that gave my ego a bit of a boost. She wrote:"I wanted to acknowledge something you said to me… You told me that risk management was the most important aspect of trading. At the time, I probably didn’t even know what that meant. But I do now, and I have finally come to understand exactly what you were trying to tell me!"In my reply, I told her: "We—as a people—tend to prefer focusing on the reward in trading (and in life). It’s more positive, after all. But if you focus on the risk, you know exactly where you are wrong. If you can live with that, and you aren't 'risked out' (stopped out), you still get your rewards. Targeting where you are going is just the next step."Cracking the "Trader Code"If you follow my videos or my posts, you know I’m a stickler for defining risk. I might write something like this in a market update:"...The bias for the EURUSD is negative following the break of those two moving averages and remains so below the rising trend line. Traders would now NOT want to see the price moving back above those moving averages—at least in the short term. That would disappoint the sellers on the break to the downside and likely lead to more upside momentum."To a casual observer, that’s just technical analysis. But in "trader code," those words actually mean: "This is your risk-defining level RIGHT HERE. This is your stop-loss area."Traders need to know where they are wrong. They need to know the exact point where a negative bias turns positive, or where a positive bias turns sour. Technicals define those action areas.One of the core messages in my book, Attacking Currency Trends, is that successful trading starts with risk, not reward. Before you ever think about profit targets, you must be clear on what the risk is, how it is limited, and whether it is acceptable. This framework creates the discipline and emotional control needed in volatile FX markets where fear often drives bad decisions.The 3-Step Risk Process1. Defining Risk: Know Exactly Where You Are WrongRisk must be defined before entering a trade. In Attacking Currency Trends, I define risk technically—it is a specific price level that invalidates your trade idea.Risk is not a random dollar amount; it is a price level. On investinglive.com, I take the approach that readers want to know what the chart is telling them right now and why. That story always revolves around key technical levels: trend lines, moving averages, swing highs/lows, or Fibonacci retracements.If price breaches that level, the premise of the trade is wrong—not just in my eyes, but in the eyes of the "market." By defining risk at entry, you answer the most important question first: Where am I wrong? It takes discipline and humility to accept that defeat, but you need as much conviction in your exit point as you do in your entry.2. Limiting Risk: The Math of FearOnce risk is defined, you must strive to limit it. I tell traders: we must take risk to make money, but we should try to limit that risk as much as humanly possible.Logic over Emotion: Stops are placed at technical levels "followed by many," not where you "feel" like putting them.Proximity is Key: Trading as near to a risk-defining level as possible limits your downside and makes reaching profit objectives easier.Think about the math: If you risk 20 pips, you only need a 20-pip move to reach a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. If you enter 50 pips away from your risk level, you need a massive 100-pip move just to reach a 2:1 target.Trading near your risk level is the ultimate "fear killer." If you don’t think fear impacts your trading, think again. Defining and limiting risk are the two mechanical steps that keep fear from driving the bus.3. Accepting Risk: The Mental EdgeDefining and limiting risk is mechanical. Accepting risk is psychological.You need to be able to tell yourself: "I have done the work to define my risk. I have limited my monetary exposure. I accept this risk in my core being." Once you do that, the fear disappears because:The risk is already "paid for" mentally the moment you click 'buy' or 'sell.'There is no "hoping," bargaining, or second-guessing.Losses are treated as business expenses, not personal failures.Why This Framework MattersTrends can only be "attacked" consistently when risk is under control. Traders who skip these steps might win occasionally, but they won’t survive the long game.Defined Risk creates clarity.Limited Risk preserves capital.Accepted Risk frees the mind to execute.The Bottom Line: When risk is defined, limited, and accepted, you put the probabilities on your side and give yourself the best chance to succeed over time.Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all. Peace on Earth. Goodwill to all. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewIn today's market snapshot, the overall sentiment appears cautious with the technology sector exhibiting minor declines. Notably, Nvidia (NVDA) has slipped by 0.64%, leading the sector's retreat. Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL) marked a decrease of 0.38%.Conversely, the consumer cyclical sector offered a beacon of positivity, with Tesla (TSLA) gaining 0.76%. The consumer defensive sector, including stalwart Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST), also showed slight upward movements, up by 0.25% and 0.67% respectively.Market Mood and TrendsThe day's market mood reflects a mixed bag, heavily characterized by sector-specific dynamics rather than an overarching market trend. The modest downturn in tech, particularly among major players like Nvidia, highlights ongoing investor apprehension within the sector despite generally upbeat economic indicators.The rise in consumer cyclical stocks, however, suggests that investors are placing some confidence in economic resilience, positioning these stocks as potential hedges against tech volatility.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying their portfolios beyond the tech sector, which currently reflects vulnerability to broader economic narratives. The consistent performance of consumer defensive stocks indicates a safer harbor amidst market fluctuations.Given Tesla's strong performance, a closer look at the auto manufacturing segment might uncover further opportunities for growth. Meanwhile, vigilance is advised with regards to any evolving trends that might impact technology and semiconductor stocks adversely.For a strategic blend, consider increasing exposure to sectors showing resilience, such as consumer cyclical and consumer defensive industries, while trimming potential excess from tech holdings. As always, stay informed with InvestingLive.com for cutting-edge news and insights. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior week 224K revised to 224KThe 4-week moving average was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 217,500Continuing claims 1.923M vs 1.900 estimate. Prior week 1.897M revised to 1.885MThe 4-week moving average was 1,893,750, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 3,000 from 1,902,000 to 1,899,000. Initial jobless claims track the weekly number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time and are one of the most timely indicators of U.S. labor-market health and overall economic momentum. Rising claims can signal increasing job losses and a slowing economy, while declining claims suggest that hiring is outpacing layoffs, pointing to underlying economic strength. Released every Thursday by the U.S. Department of Labor, the report is closely watched by economists and markets alike, with particular emphasis on the four-week moving average, which helps smooth out weekly volatility and provides a clearer view of underlying labor-market trends.The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending December 13 were in Rhode Island (+452), West Virginia (+325), Connecticut (+128), Mississippi (+57), and New Mexico (+51), while the largest decreases were in Illinois (-7,242), New York (-5,720), Pennsylvania (-5,129), Minnesota (-4,361), and Georgia (-4,325). Yesterday, ADP released their weekly 4-week moving average of employment: ADP Pulse for the week ending December 6 comes in at +11.5K vs a revised +17.5K last weekThe ADP released their monthly report for November earlier in the month and it showed a net decline for the month at 32K. The report yesterday suggests a rebound in December. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

I spoke about this issue back in November already here: Here's another reason why the AI trade might need a bit of rethinkingSo, is 2026 going to be the year where that narrative takes over markets and we all have to redefine what it means to be in the AI trade?Perhaps so. In reading the backdrop to the linked article above, it is clear that the real bottleneck and limitation to the development of AI isn't coding or silicon. It's all about electrical power and the physical capacity to access it.In repeating the quote from Microsoft CEO, Satya Nadella:"The biggest issue we're now having is not a compute glut. It's power. You may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that you can't plug in - in fact, that is my problem today. It's not a supply issue of chips. It is actually the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into."As everyone is chasing data centers now, the lead time and wait time to get all of that done has increased dramatically. Some of the wait time has even stretched out to five to seven years. And let's be real, the tech companies involved don't have that kind of time to wait and find out.As such, some of them are pretty much forced to become their own utility providers. That is not to mention the likes of Nvidia also facing risks of supplying warehouse after warehouse full of chips that cannot be turned on because of capacity issues.If the first half of the AI rally since 2023 was all about chips and faster, more intelligent programming, 2026 might be the year it all gets redefined to focus on the more bland stuff that is used to make and power these machines. It might just be the year of electrical transformers and the power grid.And in focusing on that, firms like Vertiv, Schneider, Eaton, and perhaps even Siemens might steal more headlines in due time. If anything, keep an eye out on Schneider and Eaton as they have an edge in manufacturing their own circuit breakers.As for Vertiv, the firm saw its share price hit a low of $53.60 earlier in the year but has risen by over 200% now to $166.25. Talk about a surge.And amid all these names, let's not forget to point to the potential surge in copper prices that could take place if this narrative takes hold. In a world that's also involving electric vehicles, the AI industry now has to compete as well for the same raw materials in keeping up with the lightning speed progress. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prop Trading Challenges for Newbies: How to Spot Unfair Rules and Platform Risk Before You PayIf you are taking prop trading challenges, you are not only trading the market. You are also trading the prop firm’s rules, technology, and support quality.Two fresh examples show why this matters:A major futures prop firm faced trader backlash after repeated platform outages and trading anomalies that reportedly left some traders unable to open or close positions. The CEO publicly acknowledged the issue and referenced a January deadline to make things right.Another futures prop firm faced a wave of complaints after a reported retroactive rule change that affected things like trade holding time and profit split, with traders claiming trades that were valid under the old rules got penalized under the new ones. This is like the court telliing you, you are now charged for doing something legal yesterday, after changing the rule today. Talk about absurd, right?If you want the original reporting, here are the two Finance Magnates articles:Topstep Faces Prop Traders' Wrath due to Repeated Outages, CEO Sets January Deadline for a FixProp Firm FundingTicks Faces Massive Backlash after “Retroactive Rule Change”Below is a newbie-friendly guide to protect yourself from the 2 biggest non-market risks in prop trading: platform failures and rule surprises.First, a quick glossary (so the rest makes sense)Challenge / evaluation: The paid phase where you must hit profit targets while obeying risk rules.Funded account: The phase after passing the evaluation (some firms call it funded, some call it “performance” or “pro”).Profit split: How much of your profits you keep (example: 80% to trader, 20% to firm).Drawdown: The max loss allowed. This is usually what fails accounts, not the profit target.Scalping: Very short-term trading aiming for small moves, often held seconds to minutes.Minimum hold time: A rule that forces you to keep trades open at least X time (example: one minute). This directly impacts scalpers.The 2 hidden risks that can blow a challenge (even if your strategy is good)Risk 1: Platform outages and execution problemsIf a platform freezes, rejects orders, or disconnects at the wrong time, it can do real damage:you cannot enteryou cannot exityou cannot manage riskyour account can hit drawdown even if your trade idea was fineFinance Magnates reported that traders complained about being unable to open or close positions during outages on Topstep’s only platform, TopstepX, and some traders claimed accounts were blown due to those issues.Important detail for beginners: you can have the best setup in the world, but if you cannot execute, your edge does not matter.What to look for before buying a challenge:Does the firm rely on a single platform only?Do they have a public track record of incidents and how they handle them?When incidents happen, do they acknowledge quickly and clearly?Do they have a consistent policy for disputes tied to outages?In the Topstep story, Finance Magnates noted that Trustpilot scores fell and that the company responded to only a small portion of negative reviews, which matters because it is one proxy for how seriously a firm treats support and reputation.Risk 2: Rule changes, especially retroactive onesRules can change in any business. The key question is how they change, and whether they apply to accounts that were opened under earlier terms.Finance Magnates reported that FundingTicks faced backlash after reportedly changing rules retroactively, including a minimum one-minute hold time and a reduction in profit split. Why this is a big deal:If rules are applied retroactively, trades that were valid yesterday can be punished today.Your past trading can be re-judged under new constraints.Your expected payouts can change even if you did nothing “wrong” under the rules you agreed to.In that same report, Finance Magnates described traders claiming that accounts were breached or profits reduced if trades violated the current rules, even if those trades occurred before the change.For newbies, the simple takeaway is this:Your biggest risk is not always your strategy.Sometimes the risk is whether the goalposts move after you already started running.A simple “Prop Firm Due Diligence Checklist” for challenge takersUse this before you pay for any evaluation.A) Technology and uptime checksDo they offer more than one trading platform, or is it a single point of failure?Do they post incident updates (Discord, status page, email updates)?Do traders report frequent order issues, disconnects, or slippage spikes?Do they have a clear dispute process when platform issues occur?Finance Magnates reported trader complaints of not being able to open or close positions during outages in the Topstep situation.B) Rule stability checksDo they clearly state when new rules take effect?Do they explicitly say whether rules apply to existing accounts?Do they change core rules often (hold times, payout rules, profit split, withdrawal caps)?Do they provide a change log or versioning, or do you have to “discover” changes?In the FundingTicks case, the report listed multiple rule changes including the one-minute minimum hold period and a change in profit split compared with earlier terms. C) Incentives check (this matters more than most people think)Prop firms make money in different ways. Some earn mostly from:challenge feesresets and retriesdata, partnerships, and platform economicssuccessful traders who scaleHere is my personal note on how I look at it: I pay close attention to which firms actually provide a real path to trading on live accounts, or at least use some form of risk mirroring (where trades may be replicated or risk-managed beyond a purely simulated environment), versus firms that appear to keep traders in simulated environments indefinitely. I also watch which firms seem genuinely interested in developing real traders, not just collecting reset revenues.This does not require you to “know the inside story.” You can often infer a lot from:how transparent they are about account progressionhow consistent payouts are handledhow they treat traders during problemshow often rules shift in ways that reduce payoutsWhat to do if a platform outage happens during your challengeThis is practical and important.Screenshot and screen recordinclude timestampscapture the error, rejected orders, disconnect messages, and your open positionsExport your trade logsfills, order history, and account statementsSave the firm’s announcementsDiscord messages, status updates, emailsContact support immediatelykeep it factualinclude evidenceask what remedy exists if the outage is acknowledgedIn the Topstep report, Finance Magnates noted claims that the firm did not always acknowledge outages, which is exactly why documentation matters. What to do if rules change mid-challengeStop trading and reread the rules This is boring but smart. Most challenge failures come from breaking a rule by accident.Ask one direct question “Do the new rules apply to my existing account, including past trades?”Get the answer in writing Ticket response, email, or a saved official message.Decide whether to continue If the rule change destroys your style (example: a one-minute hold time when you scalp), it can be cheaper to pause than to fight the rules.Finance Magnates reported that the FundingTicks changes included a minimum one-minute hold time for scalpers, which can directly impact short-term trading styles. A friendly invitation if you want trade ideas and prop-friendly setupsIf you want a place to follow periodic trade ideas (including scalp-style ideas that can fit prop trading rules depending on the firm), you are welcome to join the @investingLiveStocks Telegram channel here: https://t.me/investingLiveStocksIt is a good way to stay in the loop and compare how different firms’ rules affect real-world execution.Final reminder for newbies (keep this mindset)Prop challenges are not only about being right on direction. They are about surviving a ruleset consistently.Your goal is to choose a firm where:the platform is reliable enough that you can manage riskthe rules are stable enough that you can build a repeatable processthe business model aligns with keeping good traders tradingAnd when drama hits the industry, treat it as a learning moment, not entertainment. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

I don't want to sound mean-spirited but there is a lesson here that's worth highlighting.If you've listened to Cathie Wood extensively -- and I certainly have -- then you know what I'm talking about. She's certainly not stupid but probably won't strike you as the kind of person that should be running what was once the world's largest actively-managed ETF and currently hold more than $7 billion.Last week's example is particularly cringe-worthy as her ARK Innovation ETF invests in technology and she's supposedly a thought-leader in what's coming next.In short, she fell for some badly-generated AI slop on her twitter page.That's some 'grandma-on-Facebook' level stuff.Now, whatever, it's a mistake. In the future we're all going to fall for AI slop because it's getting so good.But she followed that up by touting satellites with localized AI compute, a $1 million target for bitcoin and and a $2600 target for Tesla shares. It's the same thing she's been doing for years.The thing is, it worked, at least for awhile. She became a celebrity in the post-covid investing landscape as her fund rose 10x. The problem was that the fund was very small when it ran up and then money piled in and nearly everyone who bought in 2021-22 lost money.Her star dimmed in the latest tech boom when she completely whiffed on AI. She sold out of Nvidia early and hasn't been able to generate alpha in a bustling tech market, though the most-recent returns are better.Ok, so I promised a lesson here and it's a simple one. Sometimes it's better to be dumb.Overthinking is one of the classic pitfalls of traders. The #1 asset you can have is conviction and it's simply easier to maintain if you don't question things. Most of the money in the fund was made in Tesla and Elon Musk is the greatest salesman in history and that's all you ever really needed to know. Sure, repeat his talking points about whatever and go ahead and believe them.Now many people would look at his track record of predictions and draw some conclusions but the stock hit a record high this week. Just buy, close your eyes and believe.The thing is, it's just easier to believe when you can't tell reality from AI slop. We're in a weird world where questioning valuations and business models doesn't make you money.There's nothing new under the sun, in 1511, Erasmus said:“In a world of madmen, the sane man must appear mad.”Now one option is to kill your braincells:If you don't like the sound of that, the lesson here is that you need to find investments or strategies that you believe in and don't overcomplicate them. The money really is in the holding. Anyway, after all that meanness to Cathie Wood, I better do something nice or Santa will put me on the wrong list; so here are her top-10 holdings:TSLA - TESLA INCROKU - ROKU INCCRSP - CRISPR THERAPEUTICS AGCOIN - COINBASE GLOBAL INC -CLASS ASHOP - SHOPIFY INC - CLASS AHOOD - ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC - ATEM - TEMPUS AI INCPLTR - PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC-ARBLX - ROBLOX CORP -CLASS AAMD - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

So, it's been about eight months already since "Liberation Day". How time flies. Yet, we're yet to see a significant bump to the overall inflation outlook in the US. Yes, higher prices have come but it hasn't quite translated too strongly to the overall narrative.And as we look towards 2026, how will all of this change and what will be the inflation story for the year ahead?The thing to remember about "Liberation Day" is that higher tariffs did not have an instant impact. It took time to filter through to prices and even until today, we're still yet to see the full extent of how those tariffs have driven up consumer prices.Core goods inflation is the one thing that's been slowly showing evidence of that. But otherwise, the overall inflation story is one that has been tamer than anticipated especially for all the fears surrounding Trump's tariffs before April this year.Come next year, be wary of the inflation mirage. No, the consumer price index (CPI) isn't cooling in a meaningful way. Inflation isn't going away. It's just the fact that higher prices are here to stay and that we're reaching a new equilibrium level in terms of where prices should be. That especially in the second half of next year.As mentioned above, Trump's tariffs did not have an instant impact. It's taking well over six months for things to filter through and that's the important thing to take note for market players.All of this is going to impact the base effect calculation in how we derive the CPI next year, especially in the second half of the year onwards.That in turn could see inflation data and the PCE as well drop significantly during the second half of 2026. And if the Fed hasn't already become politically corrupt by then, it could give them an easy way out in appeasing Trump to deliver more rate cuts.Long story short, just be wary of the impact of base effects when reading into the CPI data in the second half of next year. That will account for the impact of Trump's tariffs that have slowly been filtering through to the economy over the last few months.In other words, the year-on-year reading might show a cooling in terms of inflation. However, that's just the base effect talking. As such, the monthly data will be the more important metric to scrutinise when the time comes.Just think of it this way, tariffs caused the price of a watch to increase from $20 to $25 this year. That's a 25% bump in "inflation". Come the same period next year, the price might still be at $25 and the "inflation" metric will show 0% instead.Why is all of this important?It plays into the Fed outlook of course. How will the central bank respond to all of this?If pushing for rate cuts in the first half of the year proves difficult, this is one avenue that they could point to in making sure that their policy fits with Trump's agenda. That as they continue to strive towards a neutral rate of what most people seem to think it's at around 3%.So, should and would the Fed look through the base effects and stick to its guns on policy? Or will the new Fed chair deliver on Trump's agenda and use this as a key selling point?In any case, the reality of the situation will remain that lower inflation does not mean lower prices. That's the reality of the world we've been living in for the past decades. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Nomura flags Asia policy split as Fed seen cutting twice in 2026Washington delays semiconductor tariffs as it seeks China trade truceKRW up: South Korea NPS activates strategic FX hedging to curb won weakness and volatilityPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0471 (vs. estimate at 7.0240)ICYMI - Tesla sales plummet in UK and Europe as EV market turns hostileJapan policymakers flag inflation persistence and asset-price risks in October BoJ minutesBank of Japan Services Producer Price Index (November) +2.7% y/y (expected & prior 2.7%)ICYMI - Rising yields force Japan to budget for higher debt-servicing costsOil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs. draw expectedAsia session summaryJapan’s November services PPI printed as expected at an elevated 2.7% y/yBOJ October minutes landed but were largely overlooked after December’s rate hikeBroad USD weakness lifted G10 FX, with JPY, AUD and KRW outperformingAPAC equities traded mixed in thin pre-holiday conditionsGold and silver extended gains, with silver breaking above US$72Data and policy signals from Japan were the early focus in Asia. Japan’s November Corporate Service Price Index , the services-sector PPI, printed in line with expectations at a still-elevated 2.7% year-on-year, reinforcing the view that underlying service-sector price pressures remain firm. The Bank of Japan also released minutes from its October policy meeting, though these attracted little attention given they pre-dated December’s far more consequential decision to lift the short-term policy rate to its highest level in around 30 years.In FX markets, broad U.S. dollar weakness dominated price action. The dollar index remained on the back foot in holiday-thinned trade, extending losses seen earlier in the week and pushing several G10 currencies to session highs. The yen continued to strengthen, supported by recent official jawboning that reinforced authorities’ discomfort with excessive JPY weakness. The Australian dollar also advanced, while the euro and sterling pushed up toward three-month highs.The standout move in Asia FX came from South Korea, where the won strengthened sharply after reports that the country’s pension fund had activated strategic foreign-exchange hedging measures — a development seen as adding institutional support for the currency.Asian equity markets were mixed and largely range-bound, reflecting light volumes as traders wind down ahead of the Christmas period. Japan’s Nikkei 225 posted modest gains, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite were little changed. U.S. equity futures traded quietly overnight, hovering around flat in narrow ranges.In commodities, precious metals extended their recent surge. Gold briefly popped above the US$4,500 level before easing back below the psychological threshold, while silver pushed decisively higher again, trading above US$72 and outperforming on the session. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SummaryNomura sees Asia’s easing cycle largely complete despite low inflationA north–south monetary policy divide is emerging across the regionKorea, Australia, New Zealand and Malaysia seen holding or hiking ratesResidual rate cuts expected in India, ASEAN economies and ChinaRisks skewed to global growth, trade tensions and AI-related volatilityAsian monetary policy is entering a more fragmented phase, with a growing divide emerging between northern and southern economies, according to Nomura.In a recent note, Nomura argues that the easing cycle across much of Asia is now largely complete, despite inflation remaining relatively subdued in many economies. The bank says improving growth dynamics, policy rates close to neutral and a desire among central banks to preserve policy ammunition have encouraged a more cautious stance. Financial stability concerns, particularly rising housing prices, are also limiting the scope for further rate cuts in parts of the region.This cautious posture contrasts with expectations in the United States, where Nomura’s U.S. economics team continues to forecast two Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. As a result, the bank suggests Asia could increasingly decouple on the hawkish side relative to the U.S.Within the region, Nomura identifies a policy split. In South Korea, New Zealand, Australia and Malaysia Nomura says the easing cycle is seen as over, reflecting stronger growth momentum. Nomura expects Bank Negara Malaysia to raise rates in the fourth quarter of 2026, pre-empting a build-up in financial stability risks, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is forecast to resume rate hikes in 2027.Japan stands somewhat apart. Nomura expects just one more rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December 2025, followed by a prolonged pause through 2026 as core inflation gradually slips back below the 2% target.By contrast, other Asian economies are expected to retain an easing bias. Nomura forecasts additional rate cuts in India, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines, citing a combination of softer growth and muted inflation pressures. In China, the bank expects a modest 10-basis-point policy rate cut, but sees fiscal policy doing more of the heavy lifting from around spring 2026, particularly via increased lending by policy banks to local governments.Nomura highlights faster global growth and stronger Chinese domestic demand as key upside risks, while warning that weaker U.S. demand, renewed trade tensions or a sharp correction in AI-related investment could derail the outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SummaryU.S. to impose tariffs on Chinese legacy chips, but only from June 2027Decision follows a year-long Section 301 investigation launched under BidenDelay preserves leverage while easing near-term trade tensions with ChinaMove coincides with negotiations over rare earths and tech export controlsBroader Section 232 chip tariffs remain possible but not imminentThe United States has opted to delay the imposition of new tariffs on Chinese semiconductor imports until mid-2027, signalling a tactical effort to manage trade tensions with Beijing even as Washington keeps the option of tougher action firmly on the table. News via Reuters ICYMI. The Office of the United States Trade Representative said it would move ahead with tariffs on Chinese “legacy” or older-generation chips following a year-long Section 301 investigation, but that the measures would not take effect until June 2027. The tariff rate itself will be announced at least 30 days before implementation, preserving flexibility for future administrations.The investigation into Chinese chip exports was launched under former President Joe Biden, which concluded that Beijing’s industrial policy amounted to an unreasonable effort to dominate the global semiconductor industry and posed a burden on U.S. commerce. The current administration under Donald Trump has now chosen to delay enforcement, a move widely seen as aimed at stabilising relations with China amid sensitive negotiations over technology and critical minerals.China responded by opposing the planned tariffs, warning that politicising trade and technology would disrupt global supply chains and ultimately prove counterproductive. Beijing also reiterated that it would take steps to defend its interests if tariffs were imposed.The decision to defer action comes as Washington seeks to ease pressure points in the broader U.S.–China trade relationship. China has recently imposed export curbs on rare earth metals, a key input for global technology manufacturing. In parallel talks, the U.S. has delayed restrictions on technology exports to certain Chinese firms and launched a review that could allow limited shipments of advanced chips, including some from Nvidia, to resume, despite resistance from U.S. lawmakers concerned about national security risks.The semiconductor sector is also watching a separate and potentially far more sweeping investigation under Section 232, which could eventually lead to tariffs on chips and chip-containing products from multiple countries. For now, U.S. officials have suggested that any such action is unlikely in the near term.Taken together, the delay underscores a calibrated approach: maintaining leverage over China’s chip sector while prioritising short-term trade stability and supply-chain resilience. ---For U.S. technology equities, the decision to delay China chip tariffs until 2027 removes a near-term policy overhang, particularly for semiconductor names with exposure to complex global supply chains. Shares of Nvidia stand out in this context. While Nvidia’s most advanced AI chips remain tightly restricted, the administration’s willingness to review potential shipments of lower-tier processors to China, alongside the tariff delay, suggests a more pragmatic approach that prioritises trade stability and revenue continuity over immediate escalation.For Nvidia, China remains a strategically important market even under export controls, and clarity that new tariffs will not land imminently helps reduce uncertainty around demand, inventory planning and pricing. More broadly, the move is supportive for U.S. tech hardware firms and semiconductor suppliers, which have been navigating a patchwork of export controls, tariffs and geopolitical risks. By pushing tariff action into the next administration cycle, Washington effectively lowers the probability of sudden supply-chain disruption or retaliatory measures in the near term.Equity markets are likely to read the delay as modestly constructive for the sector, particularly for mega-cap technology stocks where earnings visibility and global sales exposure are key valuation drivers. However, the longer-term risk remains intact: tariffs have not been cancelled, and policy uncertainty beyond 2026 will continue to cap valuation multiples for chipmakers with meaningful China exposure. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SummaryBank of Korea says NPS has activated strategic FX hedgingThe move aims to manage FX risk and curb won volatilityHedging could generate dollar selling and support the wonAuthorities frame it as risk management, not interventionSignals lower tolerance for prolonged currency weakness-South Korea’s central bank, the Bank of Korea, said the country’s National Pension Service (NPS) has activated a new framework for strategic foreign-exchange hedging, marking an important shift in how authorities are seeking to stabilise the won amid persistent currency volatility.The NPS, one of the world’s largest pension funds with extensive overseas investments, has traditionally run a relatively low level of currency hedging, allowing foreign-exchange moves to flow through to returns. Under the new approach, the fund can activate FX hedging in a more systematic and strategic manner, particularly during periods of heightened market stress or excessive exchange-rate swings.The move comes as the won has faced sustained depreciation pressure, driven by a strong U.S. dollar, global risk aversion and concerns over capital outflows. A weaker currency raises imported inflation risks and complicates monetary policy, increasing the sensitivity of authorities to sharp or disorderly FX moves. By activating strategic hedging, the NPS effectively becomes a source of dollar selling and won demand, helping to counter downward pressure on the currency.Crucially, the mechanism is designed to operate as a risk-management tool rather than a form of direct FX intervention. Hedging decisions are intended to be rules-based and aligned with portfolio management objectives, rather than day-to-day market targeting. Even so, given the sheer scale of the NPS’s overseas assets, its hedging activity has the potential to influence FX market dynamics in a meaningful way.The Bank of Korea has framed the initiative as part of a broader effort to strengthen financial stability without relying solely on interest-rate policy or overt market intervention. It also allows authorities to lean on domestic institutional flows to smooth volatility, while preserving foreign-exchange reserves and avoiding the political sensitivities associated with direct intervention.For markets, the activation of strategic hedging adds an important new layer to the won’s policy backdrop. While it does not imply a specific exchange-rate target, it signals a lower tolerance for persistent weakness and outsized volatility. It may also act as a deterrent to speculative positioning against the won, particularly during periods of global stress.Overall, the move underscores South Korea’s increasingly pragmatic approach to FX management, blending monetary policy, institutional balance-sheet tools and communication to contain volatility while maintaining policy flexibility. In other moves, South Korea unveiled a set of tax measures aimed at encouraging capital to flow back onshore and reducing currency-related risks for households. Authorities said retail investors will be exempt from capital gains taxes when selling overseas stocks if the proceeds are reinvested domestically. The government will also increase tax incentives for companies that repatriate earnings from abroad, while offering new tax benefits for retail investors who hedge foreign-exchange exposure. Together, the measures are designed to support domestic investment, ease pressure on the won by dampening outbound capital flows, and improve resilience to FX volatility without resorting to more direct market intervention. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a "band," around a central reference rate, or "midpoint." It's currently at +/- 2%.The Bank injected CNY 26bn via 7-day reverse repos at an unchanged rate of 1.4%.Earlier:PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0240 – Reuters estimateThe daily fixing of this mid-rate is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A higher-than-expected USD/CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against CNY appreciation pressure, like today.--In trading yesterday the offshore yuan (CNH) strengthened past 7.02 per dollar, to its strongest level since October 2024.As Wednesday's USD/CNY trade opened the pair moved to the lowest since September 30 of 2024. In other FX news:Cable has moved to its highest in 3 months through 1.3530EUR/USD has moved to its highest in 3 months also, above 1.1805 Yen is also pushing stronger following the data and BoJ earlier:Bank of Japan Services Producer Price Index (November) +2.7% y/y (expected & prior 2.7%)Japan policymakers flag inflation persistence and asset-price risks in October BoJ minutesYen is having a good week. As I posted earleir:Remarks from Atsushi Mimura warning about excessive and one-sided currency moves prompted a reassessment of short-yen positions, reinforcing the sense that authorities are increasingly sensitive to renewed volatility. This message was later echoed by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, adding further weight to the view that sharp or disorderly moves would not be ignored.Japan officials’ warnings have continued to bolster the yen, USD/JPY under 156.50 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

SummaryTesla UK sales fell sharply in November, echoing wider European declinesGermany and France saw particularly steep drops in Tesla registrationsCompetition from Chinese automakers, especially BYD, intensifiedUK EV buyers increasingly favour plug-in hybrids over full BEVsThe data point to structural challenges rather than a one-off dipSales of Tesla continued to weaken across Europe in November, with the UK joining a broader regional slowdown that has highlighted growing competitive pressures and shifting consumer preferences in the electric-vehicle market.In the UK, Tesla registrations, a proxy for sales, fell sharply year on year. Preliminary data from industry tracker New AutoMotive showed registrations down 19% to around 3,800 vehicles, while figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders pointed to a similar decline of more than 17%. While the two datasets differ slightly due to methodology, both underscore a clear loss of momentum for Tesla in one of Europe’s most important EV markets.The UK weakness mirrors an even steeper downturn elsewhere in Europe:Tesla sales reportedly fell around 20% in Germany in November and slumped by close to 60% in France and several other European markets, declines that were only partly offset by stronger demand in Norway. Taken together, the figures suggest Tesla’s European performance is under sustained pressure rather than experiencing a one-off monthly setback.A key factor has been intensifying competition, particularly from Chinese manufacturers. In the UK, registrations of BYD more than tripled in November, reflecting the growing appeal of lower-priced electric and plug-in hybrid models. British consumers now have access to more than 150 electric vehicle models, sharply reducing Tesla’s first-mover advantage.Tesla has also been grappling with an aging product lineup in Europe, even as it begins rolling out updated versions of its best-selling Model Y. At the same time, broader brand sentiment has softened in recent months, adding another headwind in an already crowded market.The wider UK auto market also showed signs of cooling. Total new car registrations declined in November, while battery-electric vehicle sales edged lower. In contrast, plug-in hybrid registrations rose, suggesting some consumers are opting for transitional technologies rather than committing fully to battery-electric vehicles amid concerns over costs, incentives and charging infrastructure.Taken together, the November data reinforce the view that Europe and the UK, has become a tougher operating environment for Tesla. Slowing demand growth, fierce competition from Chinese rivals and a more discerning consumer base are increasingly weighing on sales performance across the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.