Key takeaways NVIDIA diverges from Magnificent 7 weakness: While most mega-cap tech names, led by Microsoft, have underperformed in 2026, NVIDIA has held up with a modest YTD gain, positioning its upcoming earnings as a key bellwether for global AI demand.Bullish consolidation above key support: NVIDIA remains in a three-month sideways range but is holding above its 200-day moving average, with improving relative strength versus the S&P 500 and a bullish MACD crossover signalling potential trend reversal.195.95 breakout level in focus: A decisive move above 195.95 could trigger a medium-term uptrend toward a retest of 212.19 and higher, while a break below 169.55 would invalidate the bullish setup and expose deeper supports. The mega-cap stocks in the US stock market, the “Magnificent 7”, have continued to underperform the market in general since the start of 2026, with the worst performer being Microsoft, with a double-digit year-to-date loss of 19.6% as of Tuesday, 24 February 2026, underperforming significantly against the Nasdaq 100 (-1.1%) and S&P 500 (+0.7%) (see Fig. 1).K-shaped performance of Microsoft (SaaS) and NVIDIA (AI tool maker) Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of Magnificent 7 & US stock indices as of 24 Feb 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) New Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools from Google and Anthropic raised concerns that the competitive edge of SaaS (Software as a Service) firms could be eroding.NVIDIA, the AI juggernaut that managed to punch above the rest of the “Magnificent 7” with a year-to-date gain of 3.4% as of 24 February 2026. It will report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Wednesday, 25 February, after the US session closes. Its results and guidance will likely serve as a bellwether for global AI demand.Read more: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High stakes for the AI standard-bearerLet’s now decipher NVIDIA from a technical analysis perspective.NVIDIA (NVDA) is in bullish consolidation above its key 200-day moving average Fig. 2: NVIDIA (NVDA) medium-term trend as of 24 Feb 2026 (Source: TradingView) Since 20 November 2025, the price actions of Nivida have been trading in a three-month sideways range configuration, holding above its key 200-day moving average.Two positive technical developments have emerged (see Fig. 2).Firstly, the volatility-adjusted relative strength (VARS) of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund has shaped a “higher low” since 19 February 2025 and pierced above its zero line on Tuesday, 24 February, ahead of today’s earnings results release. These observations suggest the prior 5-month underperformance of NVIDIA against the S&P 500 from 4 September 2025 to 20 February 2026.Secondly, the daily MACD trend indicator of NVIDIA has shaped a bullish crossover above its centreline, which highlights the possibility of a trend change from sideways to an uptrend phase.Watch the 169.55 key medium-term pivotal support (also close to the 200-day moving average) on NVIDIA, and a clearance above the 195.95 intermediate range resistance may trigger the start of a potential medium-term uptrend phase for a retest on its current all-time high of 212.19 printed on 29 October 2025 in the first step. The next medium-term resistances stand at 234.10 and 247.15 (Fibonacci extension clusters and the upper boundary of the ascending channel from 7 April 2025 low)On the other hand, a break and a daily close below 169.55 invalidates the bullish scenario to expose the next medium-term supports at 153.00 and 135.35/129.90 (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior uptrend from 7 April 2025 low to 29 October 2025 high) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

This article is a follow up from the previous article on the Australian Dollar titled Aussie Dollar fatigue? Technical signs hint at an AUD/USD pullbackAUD/USD experienced a tug-of-war session on Tuesday as market participants navigated a complex landscape of hawkish domestic policy expectations and rising global trade uncertainty.The AUD/USD pair hovered around the 0.7040 – 0.7070 region, struggling to find a clear directional break after failing to sustain its recent push toward the 0.7100 handle. This seems to be the trend at present and has persisted since February 12.The Aussie did manage to recover some of Monday's losses despite a resilient US Dollar which received a boost from some hawkish Fedspeak.Let us take a look at some of the factors affecting AUD/USD at present.What is affecting AUD/USD at the moment In my previous article I looked at the possibility of a pullback for AUD/USD. Now while the pair has edged its way lower, it has been a real grind. The downside has well and truly been capped at this stage.Part of the reason could be a hawkish RBA. Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recent hike to 3.85%, policymakers have signaled that the battle against inflation is far from over. The RBA’s technical assumption of approximately 60 basis points of additional hikes this year has fundamentally shifted the AUD’s outlook from bearish to cautiously constructive.Now this is even more pertinent given that Australian CPI data will be released shortly.Expectations heading into the Australian CPI release are for a sticky print. Markets are expecting a 3.7% YoY, the narrative of persistent price pressures continues to provide a "yield floor" for the Aussie.Beyond inflation data, a stable outlook for the Chinese economy is also underpinning the Aussie.The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged, reinforcing a "stability over stimulus" approach. This provided a neutral anchor for the AUD, preventing a steeper sell-off but failing to provide the "rocket fuel" needed for a breakout.The CPI data coupled with tariff risk will likely be the catalyst for the next move in AUD/USD. Markets are closely watching the upcoming State of the Union (SOTU) speech and further tariff rhetoric.Any escalation in trade tensions typically drives "risk-off" sentiment, which favors the US Dollar over the Aussie. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - AUD/USD From a technical point of view, AUD/USD has been range-bound for the past two weeks.Traders will be hoping that the CPI print could shake the Aussie dollar back to life and make a move beyond the 0.7100 handle.The 0.7100 has become a hurdle in a way over the past two weeks.The pair first needs to find acceptance above this level if bulls are finally ready to take controlA break to the downside really needs to first clear the 100-day MA before recent lows at 0.70300 comes into focus.AUD/USD Daily Chart, February 24, 2026 Source:TradingView.com Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for February 24 Today marked a decent mean-reversion day in Sentiment, with US Indexes and risk assets rebounding in a breather session.Stock Markets are slowly recovering from the post-IEEPA tariff blocking from the Supreme Court as investors realise it would actually reduce duties for many major exporting nations, including Brazil, India, and especially China, which would see its duties reduced from close to 50% back to the current 15%.Still, many nations have expressed their concerns, but traders don't look too spooked, at least not yet. Equity markets remain in a tight consolidation range, so the story isn't going to get too bright so easily.Some geopolitical clouds remain, with US-Iran renewed talks expected on Thursday, where Markets and the World should learn more about what comes next. Will it be War or Diplomacy? Critical days are ahead of us.Gold did retrace from the lighted ambiance in today's action, but that only allowed Silver, Platinum, and Copper to move higher. Similarly, in commodities, the action remains quite technically confusing. With the swift up-and-down swings, it may still be too early to call for a decisive return to bullishness.The US Dollar is on the other way remaining very solid in recent action despite the latest themes – A sign for an upside reversal? More on this coming up tomorrow.Oil has found its floor and ceiling at $66.30, decisively awaiting news on the US-Iran situation. On that aspect, there will be a public address from President Trump this evening in a State of the Union speech at 21:00 ET. Watch your headlines at the event for anything concerning the political and geopolitical news. The ride should stay bumpy for Markets. Traders should prepare their volatility suits. Read More:Cartel chaos rocks Mexico: USD/MXN outlook as retaliatory violence spikesUSD/CAD flirts with key confluence level. Can bulls keep up the gains beyond the 1.3728 handleStock Markets hold a tight range in a cloudy picture – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookBitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on their way to 2026 lows: Is a double-bottom coming?Stock Market Heatmap for the Session Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – February 24, 2026 Today's session in US Stock Markets allowed Wall Street bulls to take a breather as the tone was started to turn towards some dark days ahead.Still, the picture is very mixed after Friday's rebond and despite some mean-reversion, investors will still want to see a decisive trend picking up. Uncertainty isn't the Market's best friend.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, February 24, 2026 – Source: TradingView Asset performance was quite positive towards risk as seen with Equities dominating the picture while Silver and Gold eased from their previous day's rise (Platinum and Copper did rebound however).The surprising factors really are the US Dollar and US Treasuries, decidedly holding well despite recent political tariff chaos. With Oil remaining so resilient, it could be a sign of risk-premium priced in the Markets, but it seems that heavy dollar bear positioning could also have its (contrarian) effect.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, February 24, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Yen brought back some action in very dull FX markets. Recent communications between BoJ's Ueda and Japan PM Takaichi have surfaced, with the Prime Minister expressing her disagreement towards further rate hikes. The Japanese Currency is at the bottom of the currency table.A very different picture from what Markets had been pricing since her sweeping victory in last week's snap elections which could bring back further JPY volatility to the table. The positive risk-on session also didn't help the currency the slightest.Watch the US Dollar for days ahead.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. After a heavy Federal Reserve speech session (with nothing too new arising, many comments on recent Labor Market resilience), traders will get ready for some more global economics.This evening welcomes the Australian CPI data which will be quintessential to the pricing of further rate hikes for the RBA. Reactions to either beats or misses should be quite extended, while an as-expected release should still provide a small boost in the Aussie Dollar(A RBA Governor Bullock speech is also incoming overnight!)For the rest of the evening, watch the White House address at 21:00 tonight.Tomorrow will welcome European Data between German GDP (2:00 A.M.), Eurozone CPI at 5:00 A.M and that's pretty much it in tomorrow's session. Keep a close eye on sentiment and Middle East news.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/MXN is a fairly uncommon FX pair in retail trading but amid recent developments in Mexico, it could provide opportunities ahead.Mexico has seen a flare-up in violence around the country following the killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio "El Mencho" Oseguera Cervantes by Mexican Special Forces, supported by US intelligence, amid the Trump Administration's efforts against Drug Trafficking.Retaliation from the Cartel has led to significant unrest, with narcotraficantes establishing blockades on major highways, torching buses, stores, and infrastructure near Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta since February 22.Following the instability, questions have been raised about the ability of Mexican forces to maintain security as the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches (Mexico will host some games). President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeated that risks to infrastructure and tourists remain low; however, the situation requires close tracking.In FX Markets, USD/MXN has corrected in a major downtrend since the beginning of 2025 and is now eyeing a potential reversal as instability in the country could lead to outflows in the currency.Some monetary policy backdrop for Mexico: the Banco de México (Banxico) recently communicated a hawkish pause (current rate at 7.00% from 11.25% highs in 2023) amid elevated inflation from recent data. Such communication would usually support a currency; however, political instability could outstrip the turn from the Central Bank.Let's dive right into a top-down look at USD/MXN to spot if an imminent reversal could emerge with the current turmoil.Note: While international turmoil is troubling, traders are concerned about one thing in particular. Money. It makes the World go around, and while some profit from the situation, the wisest thing that anyone can do is at least to remain conscious of what is happening.Do your own research, study news from all possible sides and biases, and make sure to keep a wise, objective approach when trading on such touchy subjects. Praying for peace and stability in Mexico and around the World. Read More:USD/CAD flirts with key confluence level. Can bulls keep up the gains beyond the 1.3728 handleStock Markets hold a tight range in a cloudy picture – Dow Jones and US Index OutlookBitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) on their way to 2026 lows: Is a double-bottom coming?USD/MXN Top-down Technical AnalysisWeekly Chart USD/MXN Weekly Chart – February 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The North American pair has gone through some structural rebalancing as the post-Trump 2.0 regime brought the US Dollar considerably lower against its peers.Down close to 17% since January 2025, the pair has remained within a key downward weekly tight bear channel, leading to the immediate test of the 2023 Support located in the 16.75 to 17.10 region.The weekly RSI is now forming a turn which resembles closely to a bullish divergence. We should see its effect on the shorter timeframes right below.Daily Chart and Technical Levels USD/MXN Daily Chart – February 24, 2026. Source: TradingView Currently at the bottom of its descending channel, the FX Pair is forming a base after a long drop, leading to a striking bullish daily divergence.Support has been holding well, hence despite the few attempts to retest the 17.11 Lows, bears haven't been able to generate a clean push.The US Dollar is also in the midst of its own political chaos, but overall, the Dollar Index has held well throughout tariff turmoil, prompting a high potential for a reversal.USD/MXN technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels17.25 to 17.33 Daily Momentum Pivot (bulls take the hand above)17.50 to 17.60 February Highs (short-term breakout if close above)17.90 to 18.00 December 2025 Resistance (Channel Highs)18.20 to 18.30 November 2025 Base ResistanceSupport Levels17.10 to 17.18 Current February Support (immediate test)17.11 Feb lows (bearish if break and close below)16.95 to 17.00 Next Key SupportJanuary 2024 lows 16.264H Chart and Trading Setups USD/MXN 4H Chart – February 24, 2026. Source: TradingView The immediate outlook marks a clear range between 17.10 and 17.30, a key region for position building.With the latest reversal back to support, the immediate price action is key.Rejecting support and crossing back above the 4H 50-period MA would suggest that a reversal is on its wayBulls will want to confirm with a 4H candle close above 17.30.Breaking above this level points at a swift retest of the 17.56 February highs.Extending beyond Feb Highs should then lead to a test of the Channel highs resistance between 17.90 and 18.00A break and close below 17.09 maintains the downtrend, however, probabilities from recent technical suggest this scenario is less probable.Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments (which have high impact on the US Dollar)!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

USD/CAD is testing a critical confluence level at 1.3728, a key resistance area.The pair's rise is primarily driven by a resurgent US Dollar and stronger-than-expected US economic data.Key catalysts to watch are the upcoming Canadian Q4 GDP and US PPI data on Friday, as well as Oil price movements.Most Read: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q4 Earnings Preview: High stakes for the AI standard-bearerThe loonie has continued to lose ground against the greenback today reaching a daily high around the 1.3725 handle.One of the key drivers of late has been a resurgent greenback which has overshadowed the rise in Oil prices. Similar to what we saw last year with the implementation of the liberation day tariffs where the US dollar weakened as a result, the US Supreme Court decision has given the US dollar a boost.Stronger-than-expected US data, including a rise in Consumer Confidence (91.2 vs. 87.1 forecast) and an uptick in the ADP Employment Change four-week average, also bolstered the greenback.Technical Analysis - USD/CAD Back to the technicals though and USD/CAD has made its way back to a key confluence level at 1.3728.This makes the upcoming sessions key as it could see USD/CAD extend its rally higher or we could be starting a new leg to the downside.The 1.3728 handle has been a key area of support in 2025 before serving as a key resistance area since the start of 2026.A break of this level does face further areas of resistance above with the 100 and 200-day MAs resting at 1.3859 and 1.3810 respectively.If the greenback runs out of steam and we do get a pullback, immediate support rests at 1.3650 before the 1.3500 handle comes into focus.USD/CAD Daily Chart, February 24, 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) What catalysts could facilitate the move The market was in a "wait-and-see" mode regarding domestic Canadian data. Investors were looking ahead to the Q4 annualized GDP report due that Friday, which was expected to provide the next major catalyst for the Canadian Dollar's direction.From the US we will get PPI data on Friday which could also stoke volatility.Beyond the data, Oil prices may still have a role to play. If the US-Iran situation heads toward conflict, Oil prices may surge. This in turn could lend the Canadian dollar some support and scupper any attempted move higher. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.