Mon: BoJ Summary of OpinionsTue: RBA AnnouncementWed: German Final Inflation (Jul), IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, US CPI (Jul)Thu: Norges Bank Announcement, UK GDP (Q2), US PPI (Jul)Fri: EZ Employment (Q2) and GDP 2nd Estimate (Q2), US Retail Sales (Jul), US University of Michigan Prelim (Aug)BoJ Summary of Opinions (Mon):The BoJ will release the Summary of Opinions from its July 31st meeting, where the central bank kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as widely expected, after raising rates at its previous meeting in June. The decision was made by an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata dissenting and proposing a 25bps hike. Attention will therefore be on the degree of support for further near-term tightening among other Board members and whether Takata's dissent was an isolated view or if other members also saw a case for raising rates sooner rather than later. The Summary will also be eyed for views on the inflation outlook and the conditions needed for another rate hike, particularly after the BoJ said it would continue to raise rates in response to economic and price developments and financial conditions, while considering the timing and pace of hikes as it assesses risks to its baseline scenario. Of particular interest will be any discussion around upside inflation risks after Governor Ueda said the next meeting would take into account the risk of inflation overshooting by more than in the past and stressed that the BoJ does not need to wait for data showing inflation has fully stabilised at 2% before making policy decisions. Participants will also look for views on risks stemming from developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on prices and the economy. As a reminder, the BoJ's updated Outlook Report slightly raised its real GDP forecasts for FY26 and FY27, while lowering its core CPI estimate for FY26 and raising it for FY27, with underlying inflation still expected to reach a level consistent with the 2% target between the second half of FY26 and FY27.RBA Announcement (Tue):The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged at its meeting next week, with money markets pricing around a 99% probability that the Cash Rate will be maintained at the current level of 4.35%, while the central bank will also release its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, including its latest economic projections. As a reminder, the RBA paused at its last meeting in June, as expected, following three consecutive rate hikes at prior meetings, although the language remained hawkish as it warned of potential further rate hikes if necessary, citing persistent inflation and oil supply disruptions. The RBA also said the latest data indicated that headline and underlying inflation remained too high and that the Board would monitor incoming data and its evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions, while noting that short-term inflation expectations had eased but remained above levels seen earlier this year. Furthermore, it stated that monetary policy was well placed to respond to developments and that the Board was focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment, while it would do what it considered necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the Cash Rate target further if required. RBA Governor Bullock continued to echo the hawkish tone during the press conference, stating that inflation remained too high and that the Board was still concerned about inflation, but was in a better position, while it was too early to say whether the cooling housing market would help with policy. She also revealed that the Board did not consider raising rates at the meeting, but acknowledged that risks remained to the upside and that it could not rule out having to do more on rates. Conversely, the latest key data releases from Australia suggest a lack of urgency for immediate policy adjustments, as inflation cooled in Q2, with headline CPI at 0.6% Q/Q vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 1.4%) and 3.9% Y/Y vs Exp. 4.1% (Prev. 4.1%). The RBA's preferred Trimmed Mean CPI was also softer than expected at 0.8% Q/Q vs Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%) and 3.6% Y/Y vs Exp. 3.7% (Prev. 3.5%), but remained above the 2-3% medium-term target, suggesting the central bank will likely maintain its hawkish tone at the upcoming meeting. Recent jobs data have been encouraging, with Employment Change in June topping forecasts at 76.3k vs Exp. 15k (Prev. 40.3k) and the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%, suggesting there is room to manoeuvre on policy. However, an immediate adjustment is unlikely as the Board has noted that it saw merit in using the room created by earlier hikes to assess how the economy was faring and agreed that financial conditions were now likely somewhat tight.US CPI (Wed):The consensus looks for headline CPI to rise by 0.1% M/M in July (prev. -0.4%), and the core rate to rise by 0.2% M/M (prev. 0.0%). Pantheon Macroeconomics argues that this will be enough to keep the FOMC in wait-and-see mode. The consultancy says core goods prices are expected to rise by 0.18%, which would be the largest monthly gain since September, driven partly by Apple’s (AAPL) decision to raise prices on most of its hardware by between 15-30% from 25th June. This is expected to be partly offset by declines in services components, with airline fares expected to fall by 1.5%, accommodation prices to fall by 1%, and auto insurance premiums also expected to continue the recent downside trend. Pantheon looks for CPI energy goods prices falling by 2.6% in July, which it says should trim 11bps from the headline, while food-at-home prices are forecast to rise a modest 0.2%. the consultancy cautions that the range of plausible outcomes is unusually wide in July, and adds that August’s inflation data is more likely to have a greater bearing on the FOMC’s September decision, where markets currently price a 53% chance of a 25bps rate rise.Norges Bank Announcement (Thu):Policymakers at Norges Bank are expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.25% at their policy meeting on 13th August. At June's meeting, the statement said that "it will likely be necessary to raise rates further at one of the forthcoming meetings". This was reflected in the policy rate path model in the MPR, which showed the policy rate peaking at 4.50% by the end of 2026. Nordea argues for a hold in August after June's core inflation came in at 2.7% Y/Y, significantly below Norges Bank's projection of 3.3%. The Bank will also receive the July inflation report, on the Monday. July's CPI-ATE, the core inflation measure preferred by Norges Bank, is expected to tick up to 2.8% Y/Y from 2.7%, but remain below Norges Bank's forecast of 3.3% Y/Y. SEB highlights the decline in food inflation in June, which cooled more than expected for a second consecutive month, potentially indicating that food inflation is finally slowing. Despite the expected uptick in core inflation, Nordea states that this should not have much impact on the Board's decision at Thursday's policy meeting, with inflation below the Bank's forecast. Looking ahead, Nordea expects a rate hike in the autumn as it is not convinced that underlying inflation is as weak as recent reports suggest.UK GDP (Thu):The June and Q2 read is expected to show growth, but is seen pulling back from prior levels. In May, the series was propped up entirely by the Services sector. For June, the expected loss of momentum was, according to the PMI commentary, driven by "Strong cost pressures, lacklustre demand and business uncertainties arising from the Middle East conflict...". For Q2, the preliminary Q/Q is seen at 0.4% (prev. 0.6%), given June's expected -0.1% M/M (prev. 0.1%), and 1.2% Y/Y (prev. 1.3%) outturn. The BoE will, of course, be attentive to the series, though the primary focus in the near-term remains on inflation, and particularly any signs of second-round effects. However, if the recent reporting around Middle East progress develops into a lasting ceasefire, then a soft print today could fan the dovish impulses we saw at the last BoE.US Retail Sales (Fri):The consensus expects US retail sales to rise by 0.2% M/M in June (prev. 0.2%), the core measure rising 0.2% M/M (prev. -0.2%), and the control group rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.5%). The Chicago Fed’s July advance retail trade summary sees retail and food services sales ex. autos rising +0.1% M/M seasonally adjusted, and unchanged when adjusted for inflation.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk.Week In ReviewOPEC JMMC Review:The OPEC-7 agreed to raise output by a nominal 188k BPD in September, as expected, completing the rollback of the voluntary cuts introduced in 2023. The group maintained a cautious tone on the supply outlook, expressing concern over recent attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to international shipping lanes amid heightened geopolitical tensions, while noting the associated risks to energy security and market stability. Focus also remained on compliance and compensation cuts, with overproducing members expected to offset excess production by December 2026. The broader layer of roughly 2mln BPD of OPEC+ cuts remains in place through year-end. Looking ahead, the seven producers are due to meet again on 6th September, while the next JMMC meeting is scheduled for 4th October. The official statement made no reference to Q4 supply policy for October-December, making the next meeting notable amid expectations for a pause in output hikes.Chinese RatingDog PMIs Review:Chinese RatingDog PMIs pointed to a notable loss of momentum in July, although both manufacturing and services remained marginally in expansionary territory. Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.9 from 51.7 (exp. 51.5), marking a four-month low, although new orders continued to rise and new export orders returned to expansion. Meanwhile, Services PMI fell sharply to 50.4 from 54.1, marking the slowest pace of growth since September 2024, with softer domestic demand weighing on new business and 12-month business confidence falling to its lowest since February 2020. As a result, the Composite PMI declined to 50.8 from 53.6. The RatingDog surveys were somewhat more resilient than the official NBS PMIs, which fell into contraction in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, although the broader message remained one of weakening Chinese economic momentum and soft domestic demand. Overall, the data added to evidence of a slowdown in activity heading into H2 and kept focus on whether Beijing will provide further policy support to underpin domestic demand.Quarterly Refunding Review:The Treasury maintained next quarter's coupon auction sizes, in line with expectations and its prior guidance. Forward guidance was also left unchanged, with the Treasury continuing to anticipate "maintaining nominal coupon and FRN auction sizes for at least the next several quarters". In the TBAC Minutes, dealers generally expect nominal coupon auction sizes to increase sometime in 2027 (prev. early 2027), while also anticipating that the Treasury will adjust its forward guidance several quarters ahead of any such move. The Committee similarly continues to believe higher coupon issuance could be warranted during FY2027 and discussed potential changes to the Treasury's forward guidance for future consideration. Regarding TIPS, auction sizes were left unchanged, with the 30-year reopening in August at USD 8bln, the 10-year reopening in September at USD 19bln and the new 5-year issue in October at USD 26bln. FRN auction sizes were also maintained. Next week, the Treasury will offer USD 125bln of coupon securities to refund approximately USD 96.3bln of privately held notes and bonds maturing on 15th August, raising USD 28.7bln in new cash. The refunding will consist of USD 58bln of 3-year notes on Tuesday, USD 42bln of 10-year notes on Wednesday and USD 25bln of 30-year bonds on Thursday. Regarding bills, the Treasury expects to maintain current benchmark bill auction sizes over the coming weeks and anticipates potentially issuing a short-dated Cash Management Bill (CMB) around the end of August to help meet cash management needs. It then expects to reduce short-dated bill auction sizes in September before increasing auction sizes across the bill curve in October to accommodate seasonal fiscal outflows. The Treasury reiterated that it will continue to evaluate near-term borrowing needs and adjust bill auction sizes as appropriate. The Treasury continues to assume a USD 950bln cash balance at the end of September but now expects the Treasury General Account (TGA) to peak at around USD 1.05tln (+/-USD 50bln) in late October, compared with the previous estimate of USD 1.0tln. Finally, the Treasury left its quarterly buyback caps unchanged, maintaining limits of up to USD 38bln for liquidity support and USD 25bln in the one-month to two-year bucket for cash management.RBI Review:The RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.25%, as expected, in a unanimous decision, while maintaining its neutral policy stance. RBI Governor Malhotra said growth continues to be supported by domestic demand and that greater clarity on inflation is needed before taking policy action. In terms of forecasts, the RBI sees FY27 real GDP growth at 6.7% (prev. 6.6%) and FY27 CPI at 5.0% (prev. 5.1%). Furthermore, Malhotra said the RBI will ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system and continue to curb excess volatility and check speculation in the foreign exchange market, while noting that additional measures will be announced. The central bank's language stressed uncertainty and pointed to a lack of urgency to adjust rates immediately, placing the emphasis on upcoming data to gauge how inflation develops.BCB Review:The Brazilian Central Bank cut its Selic rate by 25bps to 14%, in line with analyst expectations. The decision was unanimous. The central bank noted that economic indicators suggest a gradual moderation in economic activity, albeit at a resilient level, with mixed signals across sectors and a tight labour market. It noted that headline inflation had decelerated, although it remained above the upper limit of the target, while measures of underlying inflation had eased to a level slightly below the upper limit. It noted that "the risks to inflation, both to the upside and to the downside, remain higher than usual, with an upward asymmetry". The central bank will continue to monitor how developments in domestic fiscal policy affect monetary policy and financial assets, reinforcing its cautious stance amid heightened uncertainty. It also acknowledged that recent economic activity remains consistent with a trajectory of deceleration for the 2026 FY. Importantly, it is also closely monitoring a further deanchoring of longer-term inflation expectations. The BCB noted that the current scenario of high uncertainty and deanchored expectations, with elevated risks, requires serenity and caution in the conduct of monetary policy. Summarising the report, Pantheon Macroeconomics noted that the hurdle for faster easing remains high.US ISM Manufacturing PMI Review:US manufacturing activity accelerated in July, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.6 from 53.3 (exp. 54.0), its highest level since May 2022. The report pointed to broad-based strength as production surged to 58.5 (prev. 52.2), new orders rose to 56.7 (prev. 56.0), employment returned to expansion at 52.8 (prev. 49.7) for the first time in 33 months, while order backlogs (55.0 vs. prev. 50.5) and export orders (53.0 vs. prev. 48.5) also strengthened. Price pressures remained elevated despite easing slightly, with the Prices Paid Index at 71.1 (exp. 70.3, prev. 73.0), while supplier deliveries slowed further and customers' inventories remained in "too low" territory, pointing to continued supply constraints. ISM noted manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in more than four years, with the survey implying annualised real GDP growth of around 2.8%. Respondents continued to cite robust demand from AI-related semiconductor, data centre and defence spending, although many also highlighted rising input costs, longer lead times and supply shortages, with steel, aluminium, tariffs and the renewed Middle East conflict keeping upward pressure on prices. Oxford Economics said the sector has shifted into a higher gear with solid underlying momentum, expecting defence and semiconductor-related machinery demand to remain the key growth drivers, but warned that supply bottlenecks and persistent cost pressures are likely to keep manufacturing inflation sticky.US ISM Services PMI Review:The ISM Services PMI was little changed at 54.1 in July (exp. 54.5, prev. 54.0), remaining firmly in expansion territory for a 25th consecutive month, although beneath expectations. Under the hood, the report was mixed. Business Activity jumped to 59.1 from 55.4, its second-highest reading since May 2024, while New Orders accelerated to 57.2 from 55.1, suggesting demand remained robust. However, the Employment Index fell back into contraction at 47.4 from 51.2, marking the 12th contractionary reading in the last 18 months and reinforcing signs of a largely jobless expansion. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index climbed to 70.3 from 67.7, topping 70 for the fourth time in five months and highlighting persistent cost pressures, although supplier deliveries continued to ease and order backlogs slowed, indicating few broader supply chain strains. Respondents noted tariff impacts and Middle East tensions were mentioned less frequently than in prior months, while concerns remained around inflation, mortgage rates and higher petroleum costs. ISM noted the survey is historically consistent with annualised real GDP growth of around 1.9% in Q3, while Oxford Economics said the report reinforces its view that the economy remains on a solid footing at the start of Q3, with a weighted average of the manufacturing and services ISMs pointing to GDP growth of just above 2% annualised.Swedish Inflation Review:Swedish inflation was hotter than expected compared with both consensus and the Riksbank's forecast, sufficient to spark a small SEK bid. CPIF fell to 0.7% Y/Y, above expectations of 0.6%, while the monthly figure showed shallower deflation than expected at -0.3% M/M. While hotter than the Riksbank had forecast, the data likely endorses, rather than changes, the current path for rates, with markets fully pricing a 25bps hike by year-end. ING and Nordea maintained their year-end views for unchanged rates and one hike, respectively.Banxico Review:Banxico left rates unchanged at 6.50%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. The central bank also maintained its forward guidance, signalling that rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future. "Looking ahead, the Governing Board estimates that it will be appropriate to maintain the reference rate at its current level." Banxico shifted to this language in May, signalling that its easing cycle had concluded. Regarding inflation, it said the balance of risks for the inflation trajectory over the forecast horizon remains biased to the upside. It also stated that both headline and core inflation are still expected to decline throughout the forecast horizon, albeit more gradually than previously anticipated. Banxico expects headline inflation to converge to the target in Q4 2027, compared with its previous forecast of Q2 2027.Chinese Trade Data Review:Chinese trade data was firmer than expected in July, with the trade surplus widening to USD 112.5bln (exp. 107.0bln), albeit easing from USD 125.62bln in June. Exports rose 23.9% Y/Y (exp. 22.2%), supported by continued strength in global technology demand. Meanwhile, imports rose 27.5% Y/Y (exp. 27.9%), cooling from the 36.0% increase seen in June but remaining robust. Export strength was also supported by continued front-loading of shipments ahead of potential Western tariffs and other protectionist measures.Canadian Jobs Review:Canadian employment data was strong in July, contrasting with the softer US jobs report. Employment rose by 75k, well above the expected 12.5k and accelerating from the prior 18.2k increase. The composition was also healthy, with 38.6k full-time and 36.6k part-time jobs added. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 6.4% from 6.5% (exp. 6.5%), despite the participation rate rising to 65.1% from 65.0%, adding to the strength of the report. The robust labour market data should support the BoC's patient approach to monetary policy. With rates currently around the lower end of estimates of neutral, the Bank has been taking time to assess the outlook amid competing risks from Middle East-driven inflation pressures and downside risks to growth stemming from US-Canada trade uncertainty. A labour market report of this strength reduces the urgency for the BoC to provide additional support to the economy and allows policymakers to continue assessing incoming data while these uncertainties evolve. However, Oxford Economics suggest the "surprisingly strong July job growth is unlikely to be sustained". US Jobs Report Review:US jobs data disappointed expectations in July, with headline payrolls falling by 23k (exp. 91k), while two-month net revisions totalled a massive -103k. Ahead of the data, analysts were expecting large revisions because June's payroll figure was based on around half the usual number of survey responses, with the BLS relying on modelling rather than reported data. Still, the internal sector figures were stark: government payrolls fell by 53k (Pantheon Macro said a one-time decline in education payrolls at the end of the school year was the primary driver), while leisure and hospitality fell by 40k, potentially unwinding some of the recent strength. Private payrolls also missed, rising by 30k (exp. 78k); the ADP private payrolls data released earlier in the week had flagged this possibility after also missing expectations. Elsewhere, the jobless rate slipped to 4.1% (exp. 4.2%), though this was likely a function of the participation rate falling by one-tenth to 61.4%. Wage figures also softened, with average hourly earnings rising by just 0.1% M/M (exp. 0.3%), dragging the annual rate down to 3.2% Y/Y (exp. 3.5%). In terms of the implications for Fed policy, money markets' implied probability of rate hikes tilted dovishly after the data, pricing a 44% probability of a September rate hike, versus around 55% ahead of the release. Still, FOMC participants have recently flagged a generally stable jobs market, instead stating that their focus is on bringing inflation back to target. As such, next week's US CPI and PPI data may play a greater role in shaping expectations for the September meeting, alongside PCE inflation data due on 26th August, the Fed's preferred gauge.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Softer than expected CPI and PPI readings reinforce the picture of a two-speed Chinese economy, with strong exports and factory output offset by weak domestic demand, adding to the case for the accelerated fiscal spending Beijing's leadership signalled at July's Politburo meeting. The data suggests deflationary pressure has not been fully resolved despite the earlier boost to producer prices from the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, leaving analysts expecting an M-shaped inflation path through the rest of the year. Continued softness in household demand, tied to the property market slump and job security concerns, points to limited near-term upward pressure on prices, a mildly negative signal for Chinese consumer-facing equities. The lag before fiscal stimulus feeds through, expected around one quarter, means markets are likely to look past near-term inflation weakness toward the pace and scale of implementation over the second half of the year. Chinese inflation cooled further in July on cheaper oil and weak demand, leaving Beijing's promised fiscal push to do the heavy lifting on growth over the second half of the year.Summary:China's consumer price index rose 0.5% year on year in July, a six-month low, while edging down 0.1% month on monthCore CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.9% year on year, while food prices fell 1.5%The producer price index rose 3.5% year on year, easing from 4.1% in June to a three-month low and missing forecasts for a 3.8% riseAnalysts attributed the softer readings to lower oil prices and weakening domestic demand, adding that oil price trends remain uncertainHigher producer prices were driven mainly by the mining and raw materials sectors, while food and daily consumer goods prices declinedPrice shocks from the US-Israel war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had previously lifted producer prices and helped end China's prolonged deflationary streakFactory activity contracted in July in an official survey and slowed to a four-month low in a private-sector survey, with both showing weakening new ordersChina's leadership signalled stronger fiscal spending at a late-July Politburo meeting, with the effects expected to be felt with roughly a one-quarter lag China's producer price inflation eased more than expected in July to its weakest pace in three months, while consumer inflation also cooled, official data showed on Sunday, as global energy prices retreated despite the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran. The National Bureau of Statistics said the consumer price index rose 0.5% year on year in July, a six-month low, edging down 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, rose 0.9% year on year, while food prices fell 1.5%.The producer price index rose 3.5% year on year, easing from 4.1% in June and coming in below economists' expectations for a 3.8% increase in a Reuters poll. Higher producer prices were driven mainly by increases in the mining and raw materials sectors, the statistics agency said, while prices for food and daily consumer goods declined. Price shocks stemming from the US-Israeli war on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas passage, had previously lifted producer prices and helped flip China's years-long deflationary streak, though government efforts to curb fierce price wars in major industrial sectors had achieved only limited effect before this latest easing.China's leaders are confronting a two-speed economy of strong factory output and exports alongside weak domestic demand, and have pledged to bolster growth by accelerating fiscal spending on already budgeted infrastructure projects through year-end. One analyst said lower oil prices combined with weakening demand caused both consumer and producer inflation to come in below expectations in July, though oil price trends remain uncertain, meaning their effect on inflation is also likely to stay uncertain. The same analyst noted that economic momentum softened in the second quarter, and that July's Politburo meeting signalled stronger fiscal spending as the policy response, though the transmission of that spending into demand is expected to take around a quarter to materialise, consistent with a view that inflation will follow an M-shaped path for the rest of the year.With household demand for goods still subdued by a property market slump and weak job security, economists said deflationary pressures are likely to persist. Factory activity contracted in July according to an official survey and slowed to a four-month low in a private-sector survey, with both showing weakening new orders. China's top leaders, at their late-July meeting, signalled stronger support for the economy and vowed to continue cracking down on price wars among manufacturers competing for market share at the expense of profits, while pledging to introduce pragmatic new policies in a timely manner and more forcefully expand domestic demand.The latest inflation figures follow trade data released two days earlier showing exports and imports both surging, boosted by strong overseas demand for AI-related technology products, underscoring the divergence between China's resilient external trade performance and its more subdued domestic economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US July non-farm payrolls -23K vs +80K expectedCanada July employment change +75.1K vs +15K expectedCanada and the US discussing tariff relief dealFed's Barkin: We are in a zero-to-modest gain jobs environmentNew York Fed survey: One year inflation expectations dip to 3.6% from 3.7%Baker Hughes US weekly oil rig count: Unchanged at 588US official says there is progress on Iran-Oman on Strait of HormuzMarkets:Gold up $106 to $4345US 10-year yields down 2.8 bps to 4.64%WTI crude oil down 42-cents to $76.87JPY leads, USD lagsS&P 500 up 0.6%. Nasdaq up 1.3%S&P 500 up 3.5% on the week, best since AprilThe weak non-farm payrolls report put to bed some of the worries about an overheating US jobs market and sustained rise in inflation. Instead, we're back to the low-hiring, low-firing paradigm that many Fed officials have highlighted over the past year. That's an improvement in the inflation outlook and odds for a Sept hike are now below 50%. Of course, expect another swing after next week's CPI report.USD/JPY fell hardest after the data as Japan's finance minister piled on with some intervention talk. The pair sank to 157.04 from 158.35 but there were dip buyers waiting and they walked it back to 157.99 before a second wave of selling left it near 157.50 late in the day.The dollar was universally weak after the data, as you would expect. From worries about a surprise Fed hike a week ago, we've really changed the conversation and that's going to keep Fed officials waiting and watching rather than advocating. Naturally, stock markets like the lower yields and that extended a great week for US equities. The move had less drama than some of the recent choppy days and it was generally cruise control after the open, though not enough to challenge the record from earlier in the week.Gold was a big winner once again on the dovish US shift. There also continues to be positive talk out of Hormuz but I don't think anyone has truly bought into a long-term peace trade. Gold gained nearly 10% on the week and the GDX ETF had its second-best week ever. The top S&P 500 performers on the day:On the week, the winner was Coherent, which is a manufacturer of optical materials and semiconductors. The market is unsure about whether to buy the memory names on AI capex because capacity will come online in 2028 but is suddenly more confident about sustainable gains from Coherent, Lumentum and Corning. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US labour market debate is divided. Ask consumers and they'll tell you hiring conditions are the worst since the mid-2010s (ex-pandemic). Ask the initial claims data and you'd conclude companies won't let anyone go. Today the Fed's Barkin reiterated that it's a low-hire, low-fire economy.Zoom out and the pain is concentrated in one place: people trying to get their first real job.National Bank's Jocelyn Paquet flags it in this week's Hot Chart. The unemployment rate for recent graduates is running at 5.7% versus 4.1% for all workers. That might not sound dramatic until you consider the history: from 1990 through 2020, recent grads consistently enjoyed better job prospects than the workforce as a whole. That relationship flipped after the pandemic and the gap has widened ever since.So what happened? Paquet points to two suspects. The first is boring but probably does most of the work: companies over-hired in the post-pandemic scramble and simply don't need young bodies right now. The second is artificial intelligence. The technology is particularly good at automating exactly the tasks that used to be handed to 23-year-olds in white-collar jobs, and it's not a stretch to think some companies have quietly dialled back campus recruiting because of it.To NBF's credit, they don't overreach. The deterioration in grad job prospects started before ChatGPT launched in November 2022, so AI can't be the whole story. But it can be an accelerant, and the timing of the widening gap is worrisome.Here's the part that matters for markets: historically, businesses slow hiring before they start cutting.  NBF sits in the optimist camp on the broader labour market and I lean that way too, but this is the series I'd watch for the first crack and today's non-farm payrolls report wasn't encouraging.For the Fed, it's another data point arguing the labour market is weaker than the headline suggests. Looking at housing, inflation and the labor market, you can't help but be worried for the next generation. Maybe we should stop bombarding them with sports-gambling ads? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Comments from an unnamed US official via Reuters are weighing on oil:US actions will continue to be performance-based and tied to Iran's implemntation of its commitmentsOnce a deal is announced to restore commercial shipping without impediments, the US will lift the blockade of Iranian portsThis sounds like real progress and oil prices are on the defensive... but I'm skeptical of any US messaging until a deal is done. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here's the map.Monday, August 10Berkshire Hathaway kicks off the week, and it's the purest macro statement on the calendar: the size of the cash pile. Berkshire's cash position is the market's most-watched valuation opinion, and in the first full reporting period of the Abel era, any move to deploy — or keep hoarding — at record index levels is a signal worth more than most strategist notes. The insurance float and BNSF railcar data buried in the filing are their own economic dashboard.Barrick the same morning starts the gold conversation at an interesting moment: gold caught a war bid for months, and the ceasefire talks are the first real test of how much of the price is geopolitical premium versus the structural central-bank-buying story. Franco-Nevada's royalty-side read follows Tuesday night. If gold continues to rally, it's an endorsement for reserve diversification and a worry about USD deficits.Tuesday, August 11 — The neocloud test, part oneThe evening session is the main event: Supermicro and CoreWeave report back to back.CoreWeave is the single most important print of the week for the AI trade. The hyperscalers just guided capex to record levels — the question that's whipsawed this market for a month is whether that spending shows up as revenue, backlog and contracted capacity downstream. CoreWeave is the leveraged pure-play answer: its contracted backlog, customer concentration and financing costs tell you whether the compute shortage is real and monetizable, or whether the neocloud model is just capex with extra steps. After a 10% Nasdaq rebound built substantially on renewed AI faith, this report carries the burden of proof.Supermicro is the messier companion piece — the server assembler's margins tell you where the pricing power sits in the AI stack (hint: historically not with the assembler), and its revenue trajectory is a direct volume read on rack shipments. It's a meme so it has a mind of its own and I wouldn't take too much away.The morning has its own macro content. On Holding is the premium-consumer discretionary tell — full-price sneaker demand at $170 a pair is a luxury indicator wearing athletic clothing. Sea Limited gives us Southeast Asian consumption and fintech credit quality in one report. Venture Global is the LNG read at a fascinating moment: the Hormuz crisis just gave every energy importer on earth a masterclass in supply security, and US LNG contracting is where that lesson gets monetized. Cardinal Health rounds out the healthcare-utilization picture.Wednesday, August 12 — CPI day, with Cisco for dessertThe July CPI at 8:30am is the week's pivot. Consensus wants headline easing to 3.4% from 3.5% and core down to 2.5% from 2.6%, after June's shockingly soft report — headline prices actually fell 0.4% on the month. Gasoline averaged north of $4 for chunks of it. A hot headline print is stale news — the pump price has already rolled over with crude, and August's report will capture the latest decline. The risk that matters is core: if core re-accelerates toward 2.9%, hike probabilities for September come back to life. In line or soft, and the melt-up gets its permission slip. The earnings day is AI infrastructure from morning to night. Nebius before the open is neocloud test part two — the same backlog-conversion question as CoreWeave, with a European and sovereign-AI angle. After the close, Cisco is the week's headline large-cap: expectations are for mid-teens revenue growth on AI networking orders, with gross margin guided to contract about two points year over year. That margin line is the tell — it's the cost of competing for AI-scale networking against whitebox alternatives, and it's a read on where pricing power sits as the buildout broadens beyond GPUs. Cerebras and Coherent the same evening fill in the custom-silicon and optical-interconnect layers. Optics, incidentally, is quietly where the bottleneck conversation has been migrating — after power, the constraint is moving photons between racks.Brinker before the open deserves a line: Chili's has been the great trade-down winner, and its traffic numbers are a clean read on the value-seeking consumer. Pair it with Cava Tuesday night and Tapestry Thursday and you get the full consumer barbell — value dining, fast-casual premium, and accessible luxury — in seventy-two hours.Thursday, August 13 — China, chip equipment and the power buildoutJD.com before the open is the Chinese consumer print of the week, with Tencent Music Tuesday and Melco's Macau tables Thursday morning as supporting reads. The Chinese consumption picture has been the missing piston in the global growth engine all year; JD's category commentary — especially big-ticket electronics and appliances against the trade-in subsidy program — is the most granular look available.Applied Materials after the close is the capstone of the AI supply-chain week. The logic chain is simple: TSMC raised capex guidance double digits mid-year, the hyperscalers out-guided even elevated expectations, and AMAT's orders are where all of that spending physically lands. Equipment has been the market's preferred way to own the buildout — shovels, not diggers — and AMAT either ratifies that preference or checks it. Watch the China revenue mix too; it's the cleanest ongoing measure of export-control drag.The power theme gets its own morning: Fermi America and X-Energy both report, and while neither is a large cap, the nuclear-for-data-centers trade has graduated from concept to contract flow. Utilities are provisioning for load growth that the grid data is only starting to show, and the contracting commentary here is where it surfaces first.Friday, August 14The calendar goes quiet — biotech small caps and not much else. In economic data, the July retail sales report closes the week with the first hard consumer data covering the peak-gasoline month. It tells us whether $4 pump prices actually dented spending or just redirected it. The bank card commentary from earnings season says it didn't. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil +3 to 454Nat gas -3 to 124The US hasn't been able to bring on much oil production since Trump came to office. The mantra of producer discipline is finally taking hold. I'd also be vary wary of adding given how quickly oil has dropped every time there has been a sign of peace. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin holds $65,000 after weak US jobs report and crypto bill delay: Is the breakout still alive?Bitcoin futures remain marginally constructive above the 64,990-65,005 support zone, but Friday's breakout is not confirmed while price remains below 65,450-65,550. Ethereum futures are weaker, holding 1,915-1,918 but struggling to regain higher value. The result is a cautiously bullish crypto retest, not yet a clean continuation signal.Key takeaways for Bitcoin and Ethereum tradersBitcoin bias: Cautiously bullish while BTC futures hold 64,990-65,005, but buyers still need acceptance above 65,450-65,550.Ethereum bias: Constructive above 1,915-1,918, although ETH needs to recover 1,934-1,941 to repair the deeper rejection.Supportive macro catalyst: July US payrolls fell by 23,000, reducing expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase.Crypto-specific headwind: The Senate delayed consideration of the CLARITY Act until after its August recess, extending regulatory uncertainty.The important signal: Bitcoin did not surge decisively on the supportive macro news, but it also resisted breaking down on the policy setback. That mixed price response makes $65,000 the key decision area.This analysis is based on the 30-minute CME Bitcoin and Ethereum futures charts. Spot crypto, CFDs, ETFs and futures contracts can trade at different prices, so readers should adjust the levels to the instrument they use.Why the weak US jobs report helped crypto sentimentThe July employment report was weak enough to change the wider market's interest-rate expectations.US nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, compared with an expected increase of 80,000 in a Reuters poll. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised May and June payroll growth down by a combined 103,000. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%, while labor-force participation remained at 61.4%. The full US jobs report is available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Markets interpreted the report as reducing the risk of an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase. Reuters reported that the implied probability of a September hike fell to about 40% from roughly 55% before the release. US stocks and bonds rose, Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened. Reuters covered the broader market response to the employment data.That combination can be supportive for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Lower yields reduce the relative attraction of cash and short-dated government debt, while a weaker dollar can ease financial conditions.However, weak employment is not automatically bullish for crypto. If investors begin treating labor-market weakness as evidence of a more serious economic slowdown, the same data can eventually hurt risk appetite. The first reaction therefore matters, but so does the market's ability to hold the move.Why the CLARITY Act delay matters for Bitcoin and cryptoThe macro catalyst was supportive, but the crypto-specific news was less helpful.The US Senate postponed consideration of the CLARITY Act until after its August recess, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicating that the legislation would be taken up in September. The proposed law is intended to clarify regulatory jurisdiction over digital-asset markets, making its progress important to exchanges, token issuers and institutional investors. Barron's reported the Senate delay and its implications for the crypto industry.The delay does not mean the bill has failed, but it extends uncertainty and compresses the legislative timetable. Negotiations have also included an ethics provision addressing political figures' ability to profit from crypto interests. Reuters reported that the provision remained under negotiation between lawmakers and the White House.This creates a useful two-sided test for Bitcoin. The jobs report gave risk assets a macro reason to rise, while the policy delay gave crypto investors a reason to remain cautious.What stands out to me is that Bitcoin showed neither an explosive upside response nor a decisive bearish failure. That is why I would focus less on the headlines themselves and more on whether buyers can continue defending the breakout area.What Bitcoin's response to the news may be telling tradersA favorable headline is not enough by itself. If an asset barely rises on supportive news, the muted response can reveal limited demand. Conversely, if price refuses to fall on negative news, it can reveal that sellers are being absorbed.Bitcoin is currently showing both signals.The relatively restrained upside follow-through after the jobs report is a warning against assuming that a larger rally is automatic. At the same time, BTC's ability to stay near $65,000 despite the policy setback suggests that supply has not yet overwhelmed demand.This does not prove accumulation. It tells us that the next price acceptance test carries more information than either headline in isolation.What this means: Acceptance occurs when price does more than briefly touch a level. It spends time beyond it, closes there and successfully defends the area on a retest.Bitcoin price analysis: The $65,000 breakout faces its first real testBitcoin futures rallied from an overnight low of 64,290 to an intraday high of 66,020, a move of approximately 2.7%.The rally accelerated after BTC cleared 64,990-65,005. That zone combines the lower boundary of Friday's developing value area with the upper edge of the previous session's accepted value. In practical terms, Bitcoin attempted to move from one established trading range into a higher one.The first warning appeared near 66,000. Price reached 66,020, failed to remain near the upper VWAP deviation area and rotated back toward 65,000, giving up slightly more than half of the advance from the overnight low.The pullback has not yet confirmed a failed breakout.The 11:30 candle briefly traded down to 64,955, just below the visible support cluster, before recovering to close at 65,385. I consider that rejection constructive because buyers responded after price swept below the obvious level. The limitation is that the recovery did not generate sustained upside follow-through. At the time of analysis, Bitcoin had returned toward 65,100 and remained below the developing session point of control near 65,450.The importance of this area is also consistent with our earlier Bitcoin price analysis around the 64,940 value-area reference. The current test is therefore not occurring at a random round number. It sits close to a price area that has repeatedly separated higher and lower accepted value.What would confirm a stronger Bitcoin breakout?Above 64,990-65,005: The move can still be treated as a breakout retest rather than a confirmed failure.Above 65,450: BTC would recover the session's highest-volume price.Acceptance above 65,550: The bullish structure would improve and 66,020 would return as the first major upside test.Sustained trade above 66,020: Bitcoin would begin a new attempt at upward price discovery.What would weaken the Bitcoin price outlook?A sustained 30-minute break below 64,990 would weaken the breakout and suggest that Bitcoin is returning to its previous value area.The next supports would be:64,585-64,615: Previous value cluster.64,290: Friday's overnight low.Around 63,980: A larger downside market-structure reference.The practical distinction is between a temporary sweep and genuine acceptance below support. A quick move under 65,000 followed by recovery can reveal demand. Repeated closes below the area would indicate that the market is accepting lower prices.Ethereum price analysis: A stronger rally followed by a heavier rejectionEthereum futures produced the larger percentage move, rallying from 1,896 to 1,959, or approximately 3.3%.ETH cleared 1,916-1,918 and the previous value-area high around 1,923-1,924, then pushed through 1,934 and approached 1,960. However, Ethereum also suffered the deeper rejection.Price fell from 1,959 to 1,915, returning almost completely to the breakout base. The decline occurred with substantial volume, making the rejection more meaningful than a quiet, low-volume pullback.Buyers still responded where they needed to. The 1,915 low swept the developing value-area low and the previous session's point of control before ETH recovered to close that 30-minute candle at 1,929.5.The later return toward 1,922-1,923 leaves Ethereum above the current session point of control near 1,918, but still struggling to regain the previous value-area high. This is a repair attempt, not yet renewed leadership.What would repair the Ethereum breakout?Hold 1,915-1,918: Keeps the breakout-retest argument alive.Reclaim 1,923-1,924: Improves the immediate structure.Move above 1,934: Opens a test of the developing value-area high near 1,941.Acceptance above 1,941: Reopens the intraday high at 1,959.Above 1,959: The next larger resistance reference is near 1,978-1,979.What would invalidate Ethereum's short-term repair?A sustained loss of 1,915 would expose 1,911-1,912 and the psychologically important 1,900 area. Below 1,900, the rally would increasingly resemble a failed upside auction, with 1,880 becoming the next major reference.Is Bitcoin stronger than Ethereum right now?Bitcoin has the slight structural advantage.Both markets built overnight bases, broke above previous value, expanded toward their upper VWAP areas, rejected the highs and returned to test the breakout zones. Both also swept marginally below support before recovering.That sequence is still more consistent with a breakout retest than a confirmed bearish reversal. However, neither asset has fully re-established control in the upper part of its new distribution.Bitcoin has preserved slightly more of its advance and remains above the critical 64,990-65,005 threshold. Ethereum generated the stronger initial rally but surrendered more of it and still needs additional repair above 1,923-1,924.For that reason, BTC is the relative leader for now, while ETH is the more important confirmation market.What would confirm or reject the wider crypto breakout?The strongest bullish evidence would be simultaneous acceptance above:Bitcoin futures: 65,450-65,550Ethereum futures: 1,934-1,941That would show that both markets had absorbed their pullbacks and returned to the upper portions of their new value distributions. Bitcoin could then retest 66,020, while Ethereum could challenge 1,959.The wider crypto picture remains constructive but unresolved while:Bitcoin holds 64,990-65,005.Ethereum holds 1,915-1,918.Inside those conditions, traders should be prepared for rotation, repeated tests and temporary liquidity sweeps rather than assume immediate continuation.The crypto-wide picture would turn materially weaker if both assets lose support. That would expose 64,585-64,615 and 64,290 in Bitcoin, alongside 1,911, 1,900 and eventually 1,880 in Ethereum.A breakdown in only one asset would create divergence, not a clean market-wide signal. Confirmation from both Bitcoin and Ethereum would provide the higher-confidence directional message.How traders can use this Bitcoin and Ethereum level mapThis analysis follows the investingLive tradeCompass principle of mapping both directions and allowing price to activate the stronger scenario.Traders using the map can consider waiting for a hold, a 30-minute close or a successful retest rather than reacting to the first tick through a threshold. If a scenario activates and begins reaching its targets, partial profit-taking can reduce risk. The one-trade-per-direction principle can also help prevent repeated entries if the same level becomes choppy.For more context on threshold activation, confirmation and failed breakouts, see how traders can use the investingLive tradeCompass market map.How to know if this crypto analysis is still validThis analysis remains useful while Bitcoin and Ethereum are still interacting with the stated decision zones.If BTC has already accepted well above 66,020, the initial bullish target has been reached and the article should not be treated as a fresh long-entry signal. If Bitcoin is trading persistently below 64,585, the breakout-retest thesis has materially weakened.For Ethereum, sustained trade above 1,959 would move the market beyond the current confirmation map, while persistent trade below 1,900 would indicate that the repair has failed.The levels are intended to help readers judge confirmation, failure and market structure. They are not guarantees of direction. Crypto and futures can move rapidly, so position size and maximum acceptable loss should be defined before any trade is considered.Frequently asked questions about the Bitcoin and Ethereum breakoutWhy can weak jobs data support Bitcoin?Weak employment data can reduce expectations for tighter monetary policy, pushing yields and the dollar lower. That can support risk assets, including Bitcoin. The effect is not automatic because a sufficiently weak economy can also damage broader risk appetite.What confirms the Bitcoin breakout above $65,000?Holding 64,990-65,005 keeps the retest alive, but stronger confirmation requires Bitcoin futures to recover 65,450 and accept above 65,550. A sustained move above 66,020 would indicate a new upward price-discovery attempt.What would indicate that the crypto breakout failed?A sustained Bitcoin break below 64,990, especially alongside an Ethereum loss of 1,915-1,918, would weaken the wider breakout. Repeated closes below those zones matter more than a brief liquidity sweep. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

One year inflation 3.6% vs 3.7%Three year inflation unchanged at 3.3%Five year inflation unchanged at 3.0%Current and expected personal finances improvedLabor market expectations were mixedNo big surprises in this one. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Comments from Barkin:Job data was very consistent wit ha sector in weak balanceJob data is more low hire, low fireThe jobs data doesn't feel very good but it is where it isCorporate earnings are quite strong and growing nicelyIs watching corporate earnings for linkage to job marketThis is the kind of talk we heard earlier this year, then it faded for awhile when jobs were around 100k per month.Update: Doesn't think there is wage inflation right nowSees pricing power in business to business, pricing power limited in business to consumer side This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Globe & Mail is out with a somewhat optimistic report on the Canadian trade situation and, in turn, the Canadian dollar. It highlights trade negotiations that are currently ongoing between the US and Canada, and appear to be in the final stretch.It says:Canada would address a long list of US trade irritants in exchange for sectoral tariff reliefCanada woudl remove retaliatory tariffs on teh US, return US alcohol to shelves and agree "to Washington’s interpretation of how dairy quotas should be allocated"In return the US would lower stariffs on steel and aluminum (not entirely remove)The deal would be an interim dealDiscussions include aligning external tariffs on certain Chinese goodsCanada faces 50% tariffs on August 19 and that's the deadline both sides are working against. If Canada can get some trade certainty, there's a big possible tailwind for the loonie in the later half of the year. Today's jobs report from Canada also highlights the resilience of the domestic economy. USD/CAD is down 70 pips to 1.3941 today, the lowest since mid-June. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US non-farm payrolls report pointed to an economy significantly worse than believed.The data showed the economy shedding 23K jobs in July, far worse than +80K expected and below any estimates in the survey of economists. Worse yet, the prior two reports were revised lower by a combined 103K jobs dropping the three-month average to just 20K jobs.The market had been leaning towards a rate hike in September and priced in at 57% just before the data but that's fallen to 44% afterwards. With that, the US dollar dropped across the board. USD/JPY fell particularly hard and is now down 127 pips on the day to 157.14.The US dollar also tumbled against the Canadian dollar as -- at the same time as the US non-farm payrolls report -- Canada's employment report showed 75.1K jobs compared to 15.0K expected. That pair is down 65 pips to 1.3948 and the lowest since June 15.A big beneficiary of the drop in the dollar and the recalibration of Fed rate expectations is gold. It rallied hard earlier in the week and has jumped $122 to $4360 today. The weekly chart is now showing a big bounce after months of selling.Equity markets are also upbeat about the number as it lowers the chance of a rate hike. S&P 500 futures are up 41 points, roughly doubling the pre-market gain. That said, much of the focus in stock markets is on the AI/tech trade rather than the intricacies of the economy.In the bond market, US 2-year yields are down 6.8 bps on the day to 4.17%, relieving some of the pressure on bonds and adding a bid for safety in case the econom takes a sudden drop.As for me, I'm fairly skeptical of this number. I flagged some weakness in my non-farm payrolls preview so I'm not shocked but the numbers from ADP and ISM don't indicate any kind of big contraction or sudden drop in US hiring. I expect this to bounce back fairly quickly but also to re-ignite the debate about what is the steady-state of 'full' US employment monthly gains given aging demographics and low immigration. It wasn't long ago that some Fed officials were saying that +20K monthly jobs were good enough. We will have to see if they still believe that.For me though, the most-concerning part of the US labor force is how many people are dropping out of it, with nearly 1 million workers lost since May alone. Note the spart decline in the labor force participation rate. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +57K (revised to +20K)Two-month net revision -103KMay was +129KUnemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.2%Unrounded unemployment 4.0900% vs 4.1889% priorParticipation rate 61.4% vs 61.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 7.9% vs 7.9% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.1% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.2% y/y vs +3.5% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.3 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +30K vs +78K expectedPrior private payrolls +49K (revised to +30K) Healthcare supplied Change in manufacturing payrolls +30K vs +4K expectedGovernment payrolls -53K vs +8K priorAhead of the data, USD/JPY was trading at 158.33 and Fed funds futures were pricing in a 57% chance of a rate hike in September. USD/JPY is quickly down to 157.13 and rate hike odds are at 44%. Compounding the decline in USD/JPY was a comment from Japanese finance minister Katayama who said he agreed with Bessent that forex markets have been affected by moves not backed by real demand.At first blush, the jobs report isn't as bad as the headline. Huge losses in government jobs and the unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% expected. On the downside, that's a big two-month net revision and it st arts to look like a much weaker trend. Fed officials will also highlight that the wage numbers were soft.Deeper in the report, teen unemployment alone fell 167,000, from 907k to 740k and that's doing the heavy work on the unemployment rate with their jobless rate now 12.1% from 14.6%. Among people 20+, the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%. There continues to be a big US problem with people droppping out of the labor force as 264K left in July and since May the US labor force has fallen by 984K.In terms of the headline, the three-month average is now just 20K given all the revisions. Leisure and hospitality fell 40k, including -26.1k at food services/drinking places, which could be a World Cup hangover. However with the revisions, it's not like the World Cup added many jobs during the run-up to the event. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month +18.2KUnemployment rate 6.4% vs 6.5% expectedPrior 6.5%Full-time employment +38.6K vs +0.6K priorPart-time employment +36.6K vs +17.5K priorParticipation rate 65.1% vs 65.0% priorAverage hourly wages y/y 2.8% vs 3.3% priorCanada's labour market strengthened further in July, with employment rising by 75.1K and the unemployment rate edging down to 6.4%, the lowest level in two years. The gains were evenly split between full-time and part-time positions and marked the third consecutive month of improving labour market conditions, extending total employment growth since April to 181,000 jobs. Private-sector hiring and self-employment continued to drive the expansion, while public-sector employment declined. Job creation was broad-based across industries, led by wholesale and retail trade, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing, professional, scientific and technical services, and construction. These gains were partially offset by declines in public administration and agriculture. Regionally, Ontario accounted for the largest share of new jobs, while British Columbia, Manitoba and Nova Scotia also posted employment gains. The report also pointed to improving labour market conditions across several demographic groups. Employment increased among core-aged workers (25-54 years old), particularly women, whose unemployment rate fell to 5.2%. Youth unemployment held steady at 12.6%, remaining well below its April peak, while the overall job-finding rate improved compared with a year earlier, suggesting unemployed workers are finding jobs more easily. Despite the stronger hiring, wage pressures continued to moderate. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% from a year earlier, slowing from 3.3% growth in June, indicating that while Canada's labour market remains resilient, wage inflation is easing. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Headlines:All eyes on the US jobs report nowWhat is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gainsTrump says a rate hike isn't completely up to Warsh, it's up to the BoardHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?China gold buying spree continues in July as reserves climb for a 21st consecutive monthMarket update:Gold up 1.8% to $4,316WTI crude oil down 0.4% to $76.93CHF leads, CAD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.66%Bitcoin up 0.8% to $64,900It was a quieter session as market players took a bit of a breather ahead of the US jobs report for July that is to come later.US-Iran tensions continue to be a mainstay but in the absence of further developments, traders are not really doing all too much today.Gold prices continue to run up though, jumping above $4,300 in keeping with the technical breakout from Wednesday. The 100-day moving average at $4,390 will be a key focus point next.Besides that, there wasn't too much else happening. US futures remain more pensive with tech shares hoping to at least recover some poise before the weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% with Nasdaq futures up 0.4%.Meanwhile, the dollar wasn't up to much as major currencies trade in a relatively narrow range ahead of the main event later today. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1528 with USD/JPY down just 0.1% to 158.30 on the day.In other markets, oil is down slightly in erasing earlier gains with WTI crude lower by 0.4% to $76.93. And looking to bonds, 10-year yields in the US are down just 1 bps to 4.66% for the moment. So, there's not too much in it all in all.It's now down to the US jobs report to perhaps give traders something to work with before the weekend break. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 50 bps (85% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 33 bps (75% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 32 bps (54% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 32 bps (51% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoE: 25 bps (79% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 15 bps (98% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 13 bps (97% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 7 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)Last week's market pricing hereThere's been a slightly dovish repricing almost across the board this week following the de-escalation in the Middle East and increased hopes for a US-Iran deal. Oil prices dropped below $80, easing inflation concerns. The only central bank where we saw a slightly hawkish repricing was the BoJ. The culprit was most likely US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks in a CNBC interview. In fact, he stated that "it will require policy to follow up on the intervention" and added that the "US would not have joined if it was not optimistic about Japan policies”. Japan’s currency diplomat Mimura stated that he had a shared understanding with the BoJ following the intervention, which might be another hint to faster rate hikes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW USD:The US dollar weakened across the board this week following de-escalation in the Middle East and increased hopes for a US-Iran deal. The bearish momentum waned though probably because the anticipated timeline for the deal passed without an announcement. Nevertheless, the hopes for a deal will likely keep the greenback on the backfoot for now unless we get another escalation. The next major event will be the US CPI report next week. The data will be critical for the September FOMC decision and the Jackson Hole Symposium. A hot report will likely trigger a rally in the US dollar, with traders increasing rate hike bets. A soft report, on the other hand, should reduce further the risk of Fed tightening and put more pressure on the greenback.Today, we have the NFP report. Although the NFP is generally one of the most market-moving economic releases, the US CPI should be more important because the Fed is focused on inflation. Policymakers have been repeating that the labour market is stable and that it's not a source of inflation.That's because wage growth has been easing steadily since 2022 and it's hovering around pre-covid levels. Therefore, I would focus more on average hourly earnings rather than the employment numbers today. It goes without saying that big deviations from the expected numbers might still trigger sizable moves.EUR:On the EUR side, the ECB left interest rates unchanged at the last meeting but communicated via the usual post-meeting media “leaks” that it’s ready to hike at the September meeting if the inflation outlook were to deteriorate. The majority of policymakers that spoke after the decision stressed data-dependence and refrained from pre-committing to a policy move in September. They have also highlighted the lack of clear evidence of second-round effects and stable inflation expectations. Nevertheless, the market pricing is favouring a rate hike with 76% chance of an increase in September. We will still get another Eurozone inflation report before the September, and oil prices could still drop further once an Iran deal is confirmed. Therefore, a rate hike is not yet a certainty.  EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that EURUSDis consolidating as the momentum waned at the major downward trendline. This is where the sellers are likely stepping in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 1.13 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, continue to wait for a breakout to increase the bullish bets into the 1.18 handle next.EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the consolidation around the trendline. The swing low around the 1.15 handle should now act as key support. If the price breaks below it, we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the swing low with a defined risk below it to keep targeting a break above the trendline. EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action might remain rangebound until the US CPI report, although we can expect short-term spikes today with the NFP data. We will likely need very big deviations in the NFP report to trigger more sustained moves as slight beats or misses won’t change much in the bigger picture. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The non-farm payrolls release is the only game in town for markets today, with little else to distract from it. US-Iran developments remain uncertain, awaiting the Strait of Hormuz arrangement between Iran and Oman. Meanwhile, the returning pressure on tech shares will also be under the microscope with investors hoping to get some directional conviction from the jobs data later.After a much softer June figure, the non-farm payrolls estimate for July is expected at +80k.It will be interesting to see if there are any potential effects from the World Cup to boost private payrolls. It wasn't the case in the June report (pending today's revision though) with leisure & hospitality or food & drinking places showing weaker signs instead.Besides that, some analysts are pointing to potential for a modest drag from government payrolls this month. This comes after an uptick in government hiring in May - linked to poll worker hiring for primary elections - with some retention seen during June.And the final point to note just in case is perhaps a seasonal factor with it being the summer holidays. As such, there will be a negative impact to the education sector for one. In that lieu, MNI warns that July months rank second in terms of declines in non-farm payrolls with only the January post-holiday layoffs being larger.Looking to the unemployment rate, it is estimated at 4.2% in July - the same as it was in June. That said, the June figure came about amid a further drop in the labour market participation rate - which hit a 63-month low.In terms of analyst estimates, it's a mixed bag on the headline estimate but there is just a minor dovish skew towards the jobless rate and earnings. So, there's that to keep in mind. Here's the list as provided by MNI Markets:In terms of impact, it's all about how the jobs report today will change the outlook for the Fed.And in that regard, it is arguably a very tall order and the surprise threshold is extremely high for it to really change things up for the Fed. As things stand, inflation data and US-Iran developments are arguably more important.Fed chair Warsh has said that the labour market is "solid" and "steady". So, it will take a very big surprise (to the downside) to change that view and call into question the prospects of a September rate hike.As things stand, traders are pricing in ~63% odds of a move in September by the Fed. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

A rate hike is not completely up to WarshHe's got a board that' very political It's up to the boardI think Warsh is great, I won't criticize himSpeaking in an interview with Punchbowl News, Trump said a potential rate hike is "not completely up to Warsh" adding that the Fed chair "has a board that's very political" and stressing that the decision ultimately rests with the broader committee. Trump reiterated his confidence in the Fed chair, saying "I think Warsh is great. I won't criticize him." Although the Fed chair is the most influential voice within the Federal Reserve, interest rate decisions are determined by the FOMC on a majority vote basis rather than by the chair alone.The voting committee consists of the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the New York Federal Reserve, and four of the remaining regional Fed presidents on a rotating basis. Each voting member casts an independent vote at every policy meeting, meaning the chair cannot unilaterally raise or lower interest rates if the majority of the committee disagrees.As a result, even if Warsh was personally inclined toward keeping interest rates steady, he would still need sufficient support from other voting members for such a move to be approved. Trump is distancing Warsh from sole responsibility for any future rate increases while reinforcing his support for the Fed chair. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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