Silver, Gold correct from their All-Time HighsDespite an ongoing rebound, some warnings signs are arisingHigh timeframe analysis for XAG/USD, XAU/USD and XCU/USD (Copper) A confluence of headwinds may be forming for the metals complex. While fundamentals remain structurally bullish, technical signals are increasingly pointing toward a potential slowdown.Looking back from late 2024 to today, metals have ridden a perfect storm of catalysts that remain very much in play:Dedollarization & Diversification: The Trump Administration's aggressive start to its second term—characterized by tariffs, isolationist "US-First" policies, and threats to retract from NATO—has forced global central banks to rapidly re-wire their balance sheets. This has driven massive capital flows into Gold and European assets as nations diversify away from the dollar.Currency Debasement – Persistent global deficits, which continue to widen with no sign of abating, are fueling fears of fiat devaluation.Unconditional Peace is a regime of the past. With regional conflicts heating up (Iran, Venezuela) and global powers vying for a new World Order, the geopolitical risk premium is now a permanent fixture in pricing.Structural Supply Deficits: Demand is relentless. AI Data Centers, the energy transition, and expanded military needs are devouring supply, while rising tariffs and restrictive policies further choke global trade flows. zoom_out_map Metals performance since Mid-2024 – Source: TradingView But technical factors could slow the ongoing progress.The Long Metals trade has become crowded.Banks, hedge funds, and even people not interested in Markets or the matter are issuing ever-higher year-end price targets—a classic sign of euphoria.Ecstasy in any asset class can precede a brutal comedown, especially when positioning is one-sided; a minor pullback can quickly trigger cascading stop-loss liquidations.Exchanges are also stepping in to cool the speculation. CME Group, for instance, has just shifted to percentage-based margin requirements (effective Jan 13), a move specifically designed to increase the cost of leverage as prices rise. This aims to restrict speculative excess.Finally, metals were propped higher by global interest rate cuts. With economic activity remaining resilient and inflation pressures still high (particularly in the US), this supporting factor may now extinguish. zoom_out_map Current Positioning in Commodities – Courtesy of StoneX.Com I strongly invite you to check out this very interesting Metals positioning report.Even if the trend stalls or corrects, the global landscape is fundamentally different than it was just a few years ago.Do not expect a return to 2021-2022 prices anytime soon—but be aware that in a parabolic market, brutal corrections are common. In that aspect, let's dive right into a high-timeframe analysis for Gold (XAU/USD), Silver (XAG/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) to spot if the trend is really weakening and where things could head in that event. Read More:WTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Nikkei 225 Forecast: Bullish acceleration above 53,370 key supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesGold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Gold has recently broken its December record and keeps rising to new highs even after today's 1.30% max correction – Bulls remain in control of the action.The warning for the yellow metal comes from the fact that it is forming a major RSI divergence on the Weekly timeframe.As a reminder, divergences don't always translate to major corrections. But they do signal that buying momentum is exhausting which could prompt either a slowdown or even a retracement.Bull CaseThis signal also comes right around the $4,650 161.8% projection from 2022, cycle lows (yellow line). Reactions there will be closely tracked.Breaking above this level leaves two targets: $4,800 which coincides with its Channel Upper Bound and after that, the $5,000 psychological level. Gold reacts well to them.Bear CaseIn the event of a retracement, the 20-Week Moving Average ($4,100) could be an interesting setup for aggressive buyers looking to join the trend.Overall, evolving in a large upward channel, pullback entries would also make sense at $4,000 – Lower bound of the Main Channel – So look between $4,000 to $4,100.Any break below will see major reactions at the $3,200 to $3,600 Major SupportHigher Timeframe Levels to watch for Gold (XAU/USD):Resistance Levels:Session Highs and All-Time Highs $4,642Key Fibonacci Projection $4,650 to $4,666Potential Resistance at Channel highs $4,800$5,000 Major Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels:Preceding ATH Pivot $4,350 to $4,400 – Bullish above, Bearish belowPivotal Support and Channel lows $3,880 to $4,050$3,200 to $3,500 Major Support$2,600 to $2,800 November 2024 Support$1,800 to $2,000 2022 to 2024 Range SupportSilver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Weekly chart for Silver marks how insane the ongoing run is.With the ongoing rise, since August, the metal is up 150%.Even if this doesn't look too big for a Cryptocurrency, such commodity price explosions are rare and usually consequential.Predicting tops in an ever-exploding rally is a very dangerous thing to do and can be costly.However, Institutional buying interest is stalling while deliveries are seeing issues amid major supply imbalances.The trend is so strong that the 7% pullback from this morning has now completely warped away. But, this is where things could become dangerous.Aggressive pullbacks shows a sensitive market – And with the huge Bearish divergences forming on both the Weekly and Daily timeframes, any major break could lead to a catastrophic fall.Keep a close eye on the $82 to $85 Range – Below this, the rally can get exposed.Falling below the $70 to $75 Major Pivot however opens the door for a huge correction.Pullback levels could be between $55 to $63 for one case (retest of October highs)Breaching below points to $39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High record.These technical warnings don't mean that Silver can't go to $100 and beyond, but provides levels of attention for traders.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD):Resistance Levels:$86.23 Session and All-Time HighsPotential Mini-Resistance 1 $87 to $89Potential Mini-Resistance and Psychological Level 2 $90 to $92Support Levels:Daily Pivot $83 to $85Weekly Major Pivot $70 to $75 Above Bullish, Bearish belowDecember 29 Lows $70$55 to $63 October highs and 50-Day MAPivotal Support $48 to $50$39 to $45, retest of the 2011 All-Time High recordCopper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart and High Timeframe Levels zoom_out_map Copper (XCU/USD) Weekly Chart, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Copper has slowly broken out but did so consistently after a huge correction in the end of July.Now rising to some new all-time highs, it would not be surprising to see Copper pursuing higher levels – Particularly as the commodity is very much needed for electrical and industrial processes at all levels.And this comes particularly important as China's activity seems to be tilting higher again (and it is highly correlated with Copper prices).But on the technical aspects, some resistances are arising.XCU is evolving within a major Monthly channel since 2022 and is coming across its higher bound as we speak. Today is showing some slight rejection from there.The Weekly RSI is showing some form of exhaustion. A bear divergence hasn't fully formed yet but could be in formation.Remaining above the Major Pivot points to higher chances of a breakout, the reverse in bears break below.In the event of a correction, look at reactions to the $5.40 to $5.50 Support Zone, and at the 50-Week MA ($4.90) in aggressive correction scenarios.Higher Timeframe Levels to watch for Copper (XCU/USD):Resistance Levels:$6.08 Current All-Time HighsPotential Resistance 1 $6.40 to $.650Potential Resistance 2 $6.90 to $7.00Support Levels:Imminent Pivot $5.70 to $5.90 – Bullish above, Bearish BelowMinor Support at March 2025 Highs $5.40Major Monthly Support between $4.90 to $5.00 (50-Week MA)Monthly channel lows $4.40 to $4.502025 Support Lows at $4.00In conclusion, as always, Markets and flows decide whether the trend is over.The real caution to take is knowing that there are high risks (which can still offer high rewards) in trading extreme trends that traders and investors should to take in considerationHowever, in the event that metals still rally, interesting plays could well occur in different, less traded commodities.For example, other industrial metals such as Uranium, Cobalt, or even Aluminum may come into play.Platinum and Palladium also have a interesting cases but have already rallied quite largely.Watch out for positioning and fast-paced moves! Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Nikkei 225 is leading global equity performance in early 2026, rising 7.9% YTD and outperforming major US indices, supported by improving domestic macro conditions and resilience despite concerns over rising JGB yields.Fundamentals remain a key tailwind, with Japan’s Citigroup Earnings Revision Index hitting a one-year high, signaling improving corporate earnings expectations versus the US and Europe, alongside potential political support from a snap election that could reinforce pro-stimulus policies.Short-term technicals favour further upside, with bullish acceleration intact above the 53,370 key support; holding this level opens the door to resistance targets in the 54,565–55,623 range, while a break below would signal a near-term corrective pullback. In our 2026 long-term global stock market outlook, published on December 26, 2025, we selected the Japanese stock market to outperform due to its improving macroeconomic factors and positive technical indicators.Read more: 2026 Stock Indices Outlook: Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng poised to outperformIn this report, we will shift our focus to a shorter-term trading horizon, focusing on a one- to three-day period to project the likely trajectory of the Nikkei 225.The narrative so far… Bullish, going against the fears of rising JGB yields zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date global stock market indices as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) The Nikkei 225 has continued to trade in a bullish trend since the start of the new year. The Japanese benchmark stock index rallied by 7.9% in local currency terms (ranked 2nd, see Fig. 1), just behind the 2025 red-hot, South Korea’s KOSPI that continues to extend its gains into 2026 with a positive return of 12.1% (see Fig. 1).The Nikkei 225 has also outperformed the US stock market: small-cap Russell 2000 (6.8%), Dow Jones Industrial Average (2.3%), S&P 500 (+1.1%), and Nasdaq 100 (0.9%).On top of the potential near-term positive feedback loop out from the internal political factor, where there is now growing chatter in the marketplace that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi is likely to dissolve the lower house in parliament as soon as January 23 and call for a snap election soon, either on February 8 or February 15.A snap election would likely aim to capitalize on high approval ratings of about 70% for Takaichi and could strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on power in the more powerful lower house in Japan’s parliament. Hence, if successful as it is intended, Takaichi can have a firmer mandate to pursue pro-stimulus policies that are likely to boost economic growth prospects in Japan.It’s all about earnings growth prospects zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Citigroup Earnings Revision Index (Japan, US, Europe, UK) as of 2 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Japan Inc’s earnings growth prospects have continued to lead the pack. Citigroup Earnings Revision Index for Japan has continued to trend upwards in the first week of 2026, where it rose to 0.43, a new one-year high as of 2 January 2026, surpassing the US (-0.08), Europe (-0.09), and the UK (-0.14) (see Fig. 2).The Citi Earnings Revision Index is calculated as “Proportion of Companies with EPS Upgrades (%)” − “Proportion of Companies with EPS Downgrades (%)” (compared to last week). When the index is above the zero axis, it means that analysts on average, are optimistic about the outlook for corporate earnings, and vice versa, it means that analysts are relatively pessimistic.Let us now focus on the short-term technicals on the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures).53,370 key short-term support to maintain bullish acceleration zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend as of 15 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Since the 8 January 2026 low of 51,055, the price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index have transitioned into a potential acceleration phase within its latest minor uptrend phase that kickstarted on 18 December 2025.Watch the 53,370 key short-term support to maintain the current near-term bullish state for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 54,565, 54,910/55,050, and 55,530/55,623 (Fibonacci extension clusters) next (see Fig. 3).In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has continued to hold above a parallel ascending support that suggests potentially short-term bullish momentum remains intact for the Japan CFD index.On the flip side, failure to hold at 53,370 with an hourly close below it is likely to invalidate the bullish acceleration scenario to open up scope for a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 52,830/53,644 and 52,060. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

UK GDP rose 0.3% month-over-month in November 2025, beating expectations.Growth was driven primarily by the Services (0.3%) and Manufacturing (2.1%) sectors.The initial strengthening of the GBP after the release was short-lived, with the currency quickly pulling back.Most Read: Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Price Rally: $100K Target in Sight as Institutional Buying SurgesIn November 2025, the UK economy grew by 0.3%, bouncing back from a slight dip in October and doing better than experts predicted. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast that GDP would expand by 0.1% on a month-on-month basis. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) UK GDP Breakdown What Drove the Growth?The Services Sector: This was the biggest winner, growing by 0.3%. High-performing areas included science, tech, and computer programming.Manufacturing: This sector grew by 2.1%. The standout performer was the car industry, where production jumped by over 25% as factories finally got back to normal following a cyberattack in August.Shopping: Wholesale and retail trade also saw a healthy 0.6% boost.Where did it struggle?Construction: This was the main weak spot, with activity falling by 1.3%. This was a slightly bigger drop than what was seen in the previous month.The Bank of England expects Britain's economy to have shown zero growth in the October-to-December period of 2025 although it thinks underlying growth is running at about 0.2% a quarter.In the three months to November, the economy grew by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics said.Market Reaction and Outlook - GBP/USD Markets saw the GBP strengthen in the aftermath of the GDP release but the move proved short-lived.An immediate pullback occurred leaving Cable trading around the 1.3435 handle at the time of writing.GBP/USD 15M Chart, January 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com For a more in depth look at the technical picture for GBP/USD, Please read Key Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 14Today's session unleashed a wave of panic across global markets, driven by a combination of factors: the weekend's attack on the Fed, inflation data that—while not alarming—remains hot enough to delay rate cuts, and most importantly, the growing probability of an attack on Iran.Regarding the latter, such fears had built a strong premium into Oil prices despite today's release of very high US inventories: WTI surged from $55.80 to highs of $62 in about a week, a +10% move.However, things calmed significantly when President Trump appeared, stating that the "killing in Iran is stopping," which would likely discourage US intervention—at least, that is what the market is assuming.Promptly after the comments, released about an hour before the close, stocks were relieved of their intense pressure. The Nasdaq, for example, rallied from down 1.70% at its lows to close the day down "only" 1%. The Dow Jones recovered to finish nearly unchanged.Oil, on the other hand, saw a catastrophic drop as the premium eased, falling from $62 to $60 to close down on the session. zoom_out_map WTI Oil 5m Chart – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals, however, are not trusting this headline. Silver closed well above $92, posting yet another 8% rise in today's session. Gold and Platinum also moved to new all-time and yearly highs, respectively.Overall, the story seems far from over. President Trump's decision relies on intel that the violence is subsiding, so we will need to see if the executions related to the revolts actually cease before the narrative truly dissipates.In the meantime, this could be (albeit unlikely) a "pump-fake" in case the US really moves to attack Iran. Even if they don't, it is safe to assume the Iranian population will find its way. This is a story to be tracked closely. Discover:Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market updateThe Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookUS Stocks plummet as Iran tensions mount - Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookStock Market Heatmap – A visible relief after the Trump Admin comments zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 14, 2026 To see how things were looking, I invite you to check out our morning Index analysis.Quite a calmer picture.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView What a volatile session! My call is that things can be expected to stay like this for a while.Cryptos are largely the winners of today's session (and yesterday's), along with Silver (as per usual).A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 14, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the Yen rebounding sharply again in today's session, other FX majors have just dazzled around.Keep an eye on geopolitical developments for the Yen and USD as safe-haven currencies!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Except for a few data releases for New Zealand, UK GDP and a Fed Speak cascade, not much is expected tomorrow.So keep a close eye on the freshest news regarding Iran, the main factor for markets right now.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global traders Uncertainty is making its way back, hurting US indexes while others rallyBoth the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar are strengthening from the geopolitical developments Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Last week's exuberance could have been a real trap for investors, as things changed drastically in a matter of days.The first story of the week began over the weekend, when Markets discovered through an unusual Federal Reserve address that Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation by the US Department of Justice. Officially, this is due to erroneous statements made during his bi-yearly testimony to the Senate. But everyone knows it's not because of this.The real reason lies with the Trump Administration, particularly the President's discontent regarding the still-too-high US Fed Funds Rate (which forms the basis for almost all credit rates in the US, also acting as the global risk-free rate).These are inefficient or even dangerous tactics. Not only could they undermine Fed independence—vital for markets, the Dollar, and inflation stability—but they also set a rough-looking precedent for any established US institution. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve operates on a voting system; so even firing the Chair could have a minimal impact on the FOMC rate decision, but it would surely have a high impact on risk appetite and stability. zoom_out_map Betting Markets odds of Powell's firing from the Board of Governors – Source: Kalshi In Monday's trading, however, things were largely overlooked by investors even as the CPI release loomed.Regarding that CPI report: despite the 0.3% (as-expected) rise, the year-over-year picture is far from worsening, helping to ease some inflationary fears. But looking at today's FedSpeak, the battle is far from over. The Beige Book, which was just released, showed a "modest pace" of increase in economic activity across most districts. It is tough to justify rate cuts in this environment without further hurting the Dollar's credibility.But the real hammer on the market was a combination of this higher political instability and the developments in Iran.Now lasting for almost a month, the revolts have led to 12,000+ civilian casualties, which is increasingly prompting calls for US intervention. If Venezuela made the case for a strong presence in South America, "Monroe Doctrine" style, this situation could have a significantly higher impact on global stability.For now, it is at least impacting Oil (up 10% since last week), volatility, and investor sentiment. Stock Indexes are plunging in today's session, particularly in the higher-beta sectors, with the Mag 7s getting dumped hard.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:US Stocks plummet as Iran tensions mount - Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookThe Iran Risk Premium: WTI Hits $62 as Revolts Continue – US Oil OutlookChart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) resumes accelerated uptrend, US$90.90 upside trigger to watchNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.Dollar Index Daily Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView The US Dollar is stabilizing at its relative 2026 highs.Now coming close to a main resistance zone and key Moving Averages stabilizing (indicating stalling momentum), the test will be to see if it really stands out as a Safe-Haven in the event of any attack.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsImmediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.50 to 98.80 Intraday Pivot Zone98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView Despite the attacks on the Fed, the US Dollar is up against all OECD majors at the exception of a highly performing Chinese Yuan.The Dollar seems to be at the center of Safe-Haven flows in the current geopolitical landscape.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 14, 2026 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie is coming back after its past week’s poor performance, only down against the US Dollar since last Wednesday.Venezuela’s events were bearish on the CAD due to similar oil products being available in the country. Nevertheless, Oil giants are expressing their uncertainties regarding the exploitability of Venezuelan oil, leading to mean-reversion for the Canadian currency. This combination with rising WTI prices boosts the CAD.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD Daily Chart, January 14, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD rallied spectacularly since the end of December, but is rejecting the 1.39 Psychological level.Now contained between its 50 and 200-Day moving averages, look for breakouts with daily closes either above or below the technical indicators.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels50-Day MA and psychological level 1.39Major Pivot 1.3870 to 1.39 (rejecting)1.40 to 1.4050 Key ResistanceSupport Levels200-Day MA 1.384251.38 Pivotal SupportMajor Support Zone 1.3650 to 1.37December 26 lows 1.364301.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as they surely will lead Market Flows towards the end of the week.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets just received the reports for US PPI and Retail Sales.The Producer Price Index report came at 0.2% as expected, however reflecting in a rise on the y/y number to 3.0% (2.7% estimate). FYI the data release is for November and may have seen some biases due to the BLS closures.Core PPI for November however was actually unchanged. You can get the detailed report right here.For Retail Sales, the picture is still one of exuberance for the American Consumer:The report came in at 0.6% vs 0.4% M/M.The report, also for November, still marks high pace spending which should hold strong earnings and activity for the new year.Economic activity is still holding strong and surprisingly, tariff-led inflation hasn't truly reflected through PPI Prices since July. The data is a bit old and shouldn't move markets too much all things considered. Traders are now looking at developments in Iran. zoom_out_map US Dollar Index (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Silver breaks into price discovery: XAG/USD has erased its early-January correction, surged alongside gold, and hit a fresh record high above US$91, confirming the resumption of an accelerated short-term uptrend.Macro tailwinds remain supportive: Rising geopolitical risk premiums, softer US inflation, and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts into 2026 are reinforcing bullish momentum in silver.Key technical levels to watch: Holding above US$86.27/84.03 keeps the minor uptrend intact, while a sustained break above US$90.90 opens the door toward US$94.60–95.81 and US$98.74–99.46, with a longer-term secular target near US$101.15. This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart Alert: Silver (XAG/USD) intraday rally is fast approaching key resistance", published on 9 January 2025.The recent bullish price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) in the past four trading sessions that moved in line with Gold (XAU/USD), another precious metal, have eradicated the earlier expected extended minor corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) where price staged a prior decline of 10% (high to low) from 7 January to 8 January 2026.In today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, Silver (XAG/USD) has continued to extend its up move with an intraday rally of 4.3% to hit another record high of US$91.57 at this time of writing, breaching above the US$90.00 psychological level for the first time.Macro factors such as rising geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East arising from Iran’s civil unrest, which may lead to regime change with involvement from the US, together with a likely continuation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts extension into 2026 after US core CPI for December 2025 came in below expectations (both m/m and y/y basis) have served as reinforcing positive feedback loops into Silver (XAG/USD).Let us now take a look at Silver (XAG/USD) from a technical analysis perspective to decipher its short-term movement (1 to 3 days).Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Relentless minor uptrend intact zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Silver (XAG/USD) long-term secular trend as of 14 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$86.27/84.03 key short-term pivotal support on Silver (XAG/USD) to maintain the short-term minor uptrend phase in motion since the 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84.A clearance above a major resistance of US$90.90 (depicted on the weekly chart) increases the bullish acceleration mode for Silver (XAG/USD) for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$94.60/95.81(upper boundary of the minor ascending channel and Fibonacci extension cluster), followed by US$98.74/99.46 (Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break with an hourly close below US$84.03 invalidates the minor bullish impulsive sequence to flip the bias back to a likely minor corrective decline sequence again to expose the next intermediate supports at US$79.86 and US$74.07 (also the 20-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias The price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) have continued to trade above its rising 20-day and 50-day moving averages.Since 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84, the price actions of Silver (XAG/USD) has evolved into a minor ascending channel.The hourly MACD trend indicator has staged an intraday bullish breakout in today’s Asia session, 14 January 2026, above its centreline, which reinforces the ongoing minor uptrend phase for Silver (XAG/USD).In a longer-term secular trend structure from an Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis perspective, Silver (XAG/USD) is likely in an extended major/secular bullish impulsive up move sequence, labelled as wave III in place since 29 August 2022 low, with the next major resistance coming in at US$101.15 (see Fig. 2). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 13It seems that CPI day turned out to be less about the data itself and more about what lies beneath the surface.Perhaps the as-expected release minimized volatility—Core CPI cooled to 2.6%, a very decent report, especially given the skepticism surrounding the previous soft print. However, with another critical inflation report (PPI) looming tomorrow, traders may simply be keeping their powder dry waiting for further confirmation.Asset classes traded in a chaotic fashion. We saw a classic knee-jerk rally in stocks and a drop in the Dollar upon release, only for both to violently reverse course. The selloff in Stocks actually accelerated towards the end of the session, particularly for the Dow Jones.Surprisingly, the US Dollar finished at the top of the FX major board today. This could be partly attributed to NY Fed President Williams' late-session comments yesterday, indicating the Fed is comfortable with interest rates at "near neutral" levels. However, the bid is likely driven more by geopolitical tension in Iran.In the Metals complex, traders seem to be searching for direction, with most assets seeing low volatility or minor corrections. Silver however, remains the outlier. The short squeeze appears to be continuing even without a broader metals rally, with the commodity tagging $89.13 before retreating. This looks like max pain for shorts—if this marks the capitulation point, we could see a broader calming of the rally. We will monitor this closely tomorrow.The two asset classes that truly stole the show today were Cryptos and Oil.Crypto: Digital assets are finding renewed attraction as inflation cools and traditional assets sit at extreme valuations. This breakout comes after a 1.5-month consolidation, suggesting a technical coiled spring was ready to release.Oil: Supply fears have finally gripped the market. After the post-Venezuela drop to $55, WTI surged to trade around $62 today. Markets are now aggressively pricing in the risk of supply disruption from the revolts in Iran.As mentioned before, this Iran theme is also putting a bid under the US Dollar as a safe-haven, potentially being the next leg of the Freedom Trade to continue last week's trend. Discover:Fed Chair Powell is Under Attack – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) Fresh All-Time HighsTraders are Moving Past Powell's Investigation - US Stock Index Outlook & Pre-CPI Trading LevelsKey Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPStock Market Heatmap – A very mixed picture zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 13, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cryptos and Oil steal the show.Apart from the US Dollar and a timid rally in US Treasuries, all other assets were sold off amid slow but nascent profit-taking. It will be key to check if this continues.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 13, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar keeps shining again despite the relatively soft CPI report with the CAD following closely.Once again, the Yen finishes last still hurt by the Snap Election (Fiscal Recklessness) prospects. More to come on this throughout the week.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Tonight’s session wraps up with a major health check for China as its Trade Balance hits the tape. Markets are eyeing the $113.6B surplus target, with Imports projected to grow at 0.9%. Given the tight trade link, any Chinese demand surprise will spark immediate volatility in the Antipodeans (AUD and NZD).But tomorrow's session (Wednesday, January 14) is the true main event:Early Morning (03:00 – 03:20 A.M. ET) | Heavy Central Bank speech session starts with back-to-back speeches from BoE’s Taylor (03:00 A.M.) and ECB’s De Guindos (03:20 A.M.). Expect them to echo the recent "full solidarity" statement supporting Fed Chair Powell's independence following political pressures.The North American SessionUS Retail Sales (08:30 A.M. ET): Consensus is eyeing a 0.4% MoM gainUS Producer Price Index (PPI) (08:30 A.M. ET): Headline PPI and Core PPI (expected at 2.6% YoY) serving as the final inflation puzzle piece for the week.Fed Speakers & Beige Book (10:00 – 14:10 ET): The afternoon features a barrage of five Fed speakers (Paulson, Miran, Bostic, Kashkari, and Williams). This culminates in the Fed Beige Book (14:00 ET), which will provide the "prophecy" on regional economic health ahead of the next rate decision.Safe Trades and good luck for PPI!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Bitcoin breaks out higher and drags the Crypto Market with itWith Cryptos being sold off, early, could see attraction as other assets trade to elevated all-time highsEthereum and Solana are facing a key test for a general market rally Crypto is back in beast mode today after a 1.5-month-long consolidation across all major tokens.Digital assets have a funny way of fading into the background when interest and prices drop, often following a few crashes or scandals.And make no mistake—the latest correction was no small matter.Bitcoin, the most sought-after and respected crypto, corrected by 36%, with the Total Crypto Market Cap suffering a similar drop.Others were hit even harder, with 50% corrections seen in XRP and Solana, and brutal 70% drops in names like Cardano. zoom_out_map Crypto total Market Cap Monthly Chart – Source: TradingView But zooming out, Cryptos actually led the sensational rally that eventually spread to other assets.Bitcoin kicked off the 2024-2025 frenzy as early as January 2024, trading at $40,000 before peaking at $126,000 19 months later – a +3X increase.As a matter of fact, looking at past cycles, cryptocurrencies have often acted as a leading indicator, rising and falling weeks or even months before other asset classes.This happens for a simple technical reason: they sit at the very top of the risk spectrum.Consequently, they are the first to see demand dry up when uncertainty arises—conditions we saw clearly during the October-November period as layoffs rose and fears of an "AI Peak" bloomed.So, where do things stand now? zoom_out_map Current Session in Cryptos – January 13, 2026 (15:14). Source: FInviz Digital assets have been largely off the radar since November, with volatility staying surprisingly contained.However, with stocks hovering at all-time highs and metals posting record performances, Cryptocurrencies could be primed for some mean-reversion higher.As geopolitical uncertainty looms and the Fed's independence comes under fire yet again, traders may look to crypto for risk diversification in assets that have corrected already – Expect things to remain volatile in this environment.Let's dive right into the Daily Charts and technical levels for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). Read More:CPI Mid-Session Outlook: Surprising Flows as Silver Explodes While Stocks DropChart Alert: USD/JPY breaking 158.80 key resistance as US CPI looms with intervention riskDow Jones (DJIA) Forecast: Eyeing new all-time high as banks’ earnings loomBitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Bitcoin is now breaching its 50-Day Moving Average on strong momentum after an initial test last week.Supported by the forming of an uptrend (higher lows, strong trendline) and confirmed by a bounce on neutral from the RSI Index, the path for a higher retest is forming.Two tests will be coming for Bitcoin:Breaking the January 5 highs ($94,810) – Short-term test (looks close to breaking)Passing the test of the $100,000 resistance.This one will need a review if prices get there. A huge psychological resistance which will surely dictate risk-appetite for Cryptos in 2026.Levels of interest for BTC trading:Support Levels:$88,000 to $93,000 major support turned Pivot (breaking out)50-Day MA ($92,200, broken this morning)Past Week Lows and Uptrend $89,340$85,000 mid-term Support (+/- $1,500)$75,000 Key long-term supportResistance Levels:Highs to break $94,810 (short-term resistance)$98,000 to $100,000 Resistance$104,000 200-Day MAResistance at previous ATH $106,000 to $108,000Current ATH Resistance $124,000 to $126,000Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Ethereum (ETH) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Ethereum is now looking a bit less strong compared to its older brother but this could still be quite positive – A triangle formation will help to spot the direction of an imminent breakout.Showing similar RSI developments as BTC, Ethereum should see its price blaze as long as bulls manage to break above its 200-Day Moving Average, coming in as an immediate test ($3,216).A rise in ETH could also help the broader altcoin market to rally.Levels of interest for ETH trading:Support Levels:50-Day Moving Average $3,100$3,000 to $3,200 Major momentum Pivot (Test of the $3,000)$2,500 to $2,700 June Key Support (November lows)$2,620 Session and weekly Lows$2,100 June War support$1,385 to $1,750 2025 Support2025 Lows $1,384Resistance Levels:$3,216 200-Day MA (Immediate test)$3,300 breakout region$3,500 (+/- $50) Key Resistance$3,800 September lows$4,000 Dec 2024 Top Main Resistance zone$4,950 Current new All-time highsSolana (SOL) Daily Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Solana (SOL) Daily Chart, January 13, 2026 – Source: TradingView Solana is forming an interesting uptrend to follow its peers but seems to lack a bit of momentum.However, with the current rally being young in global crypto, it may easily catch up as it trades well above its 50-Day MA ($132.00).SOL Bulls will want to see a clean break above $147.00 for hopes of a renewed bull cycle.Levels to keep on your SOL Charts:Support Levels:Upward trendline ($138)Main Support $125 to $130Weekly lows $123$100 to $115 Main supportResistance Levels:Highs to breach $146.93$140 to $150 Major Pivot (testing)Channel highs and October Pivot resistance $165 to $170$180 to $190 ResistancePsychological level $200 to $205$253 Cycle highsSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Markets have just received the report for the highly anticipated CPI Report for December, which came in exactly as expected – The report is a relief and despite the high m/m gain, should raise cut expectations throughout the middle of the year.The month-over-month Headline release came in at 0.3% vs. 0.3% expectations. This brings the y/y total to 2.7%, unchanged from last month.For Core CPI, the m/m is at 0.2% vs 0.3% estimates – the year-over-year is a bit lower with 2.6% vs 2.7% expected.The difference with the headline comes with more volatile energy prices throughout the month which could also be a major factor for Inflation in 2026. You can get access to the full report right here.It is the first live report, considered timely and with supposedly fewer BLS assumptions since September. The 1.5-month-long US Government shutdown had impaired previous releases.After last month's bizarre miss, traders and investors were looking to learn more on how the inflation picture is really unfolding – Doubts could remain regarding today's release.For those who did not know, the Trump Administration fired the Head of the BLS, a move that adds further uncertainty and distrust in US data and assets.Let's discover a few reactions for the US Dollar, Dow Jones (CFD & Futures), EUR/USD, and Gold.US Dollar (Dollar Index) zoom_out_map Dollar Index 15M – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD) zoom_out_map Pre-Open Dow Jones (CFD) – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView The open should be positive for stocks after the report.Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView EUR/USD 15M Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD 15M Chart – January 13, 2026. Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Yen weakness intensifies despite softer USD: USD/JPY has broken above the 158.80 key resistance and is trading near 158.9, marking a 1.5-year high as the yen continues to underperform even amid a broader US dollar pullback; verbal intervention has so far failed to halt the move.Politics overtaking rates as the main driver: The traditional link between USD/JPY and US–Japan yield differentials has weakened since April 2025, with yen selling increasingly driven by the “Takaichi Trade” and snap-election risks that could reinforce pro-stimulus policies and constrain the BoJ’s tightening path.Intervention risk rising as CPI looms: USD/JPY has entered the historical intervention-risk zone near 159.45 ahead of US CPI, with short-term momentum still bullish above 158.10, but a failure to hold this support could trigger a corrective pullback. The Japanese yen has stood out as the FX market outlier over the past three trading sessions, remaining persistently weak despite a broader softening in the US dollar against other major currencies (see Fig. 1).Intraday K-shaped performance in FX market zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The yen has continued to fall on Tuesday, 13 January 2025, as the USD/JPY breached the 158.00 psychological level on Monday. In today’s Asia session, the Japanese currency extended its losses to hit a one-and-a-half-year low against the US dollar. The USD/JPY is now trading at an intraday level of 158.86 at the time of writing.Verbal interventions from key authorities have so far failed to stem the ongoing yen weakness. During the late Monday US session, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama commented that she and US Treasury Secretary Bessent shared a “common concern” about the one-way weakening of the yen.USD/JPY movements are moving away from rate differentials, with politics as the main driver zoom_out_map Fig. 2: 2-year & 10-year US Treasury/JGB yield spreads major trends with USD/JPY as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) In the past five years, there has been a strong direct correlation between the movement of the USD/JPY and the US-Japan sovereign bond yield (rate) differentials.However, this relationship has started to break down. Since April 2025, the narrowing of the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury/JGB yield spread has failed to spark a downward drift of the USD/JPY (see Fig. 2).The primary reason that may explained the recent yen weakness is likely related to the “Takaichi Trade” narrative. On Sunday, local Japanese media reported that Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi had the intention to dissolve the parliament's lower house and called for a snap election soon, either on February 8 or February 15.A snap election would likely aim to capitalize on high approval ratings of about 70% for Takaichi and could strengthen the Liberal Democratic Party’s grip on power in the more powerful lower house in Japan’s parliament. Hence, if successful as it is intended, Takaichi can have a firmer mandate to pursue pro-stimulus policies that may hinder the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s current gradual interest rate hike policy.USD/JPY is trading inside the intervention-risk zone ahead of today’s US CPI zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The BoJ, under the instruction of the Ministry of Finance, last intervened in the FX market to sell down the US dollar on 12 July 2024 when the USD/JPY hit an intraday high of 159.45.The USD/JPY is now trading close to the 159.45 level, which is breaking above the upper limit of a key medium-term pivotal resistance of 158.80 (see Fig. 3).Let’s now highlight what the key levels to watch on the USD/JPY are based on a technical analysis perspective, as we wait for the release of the US CPI data for December later today, which can be a short-term key driver to spark two-way movement on the USD/JPYShort-term momentum supports further USD/JPY strength zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY minor trend as of 13 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has staged a bullish breakout with an hourly close above the 158.80 key medium-term resistance, without any bearish divergence condition seen on its hourly RSI momentum indicator at its overbought region (see Fig. 4).Watch the 158.10 key short-term pivotal support on the USD/JPY to maintain the intraday bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 159.45/159.75 and 160.24/160.35 (also a Fibonacci extension).On the flipside, a break and an hourly close below 158.10 invalidates the bullish bias to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 157.50, 157.28/157.00, and even 156.30 (close to the 20-day moving average) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 12Traders and investors woke up to another piece of bad news – the Trump Administration and the US Department of Justice orchestrated yet another attack on Federal Reserve Chair Powell.The pretext? Misleading statements in his testimony at the Senate (legal requirement for all Federal Reserve Members).The real pretext? Finding new ways to fire the head of the US Central Bank just ahead of the upcoming FOMC – Another attack on the Fed.And Jerome Powell responded fearlessly this time. I invite you all to listen to his (short) speech.The problem is that neither the US dollar nor financial markets can function adequately without a central bank free from political influences.Historically, politicized central banks have often been associated with high or even extreme inflation, disorderly stock market movements, and financial outflows – not a great cocktail.The US President wants to see rates go down further. However, the Fed can’t commit due to a still solid labor Market (Unemployment Rate is higher than it was a few years ago, but still very low in the grand scheme of things) – And a still very unclear inflation picture – More on this tomorrow morning (US CPI releases at 8:30 A.M. ET).The consequences? Anxious investors, volatile movements, and a pursuit of diversification away from the US Dollar.Most heavily traded metals have rallied to new all-time or yearly highs after the headline, stocks sharply opened lower, the Dollar shot down, and a general angst regarding the outcome arose.Even US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed his confusion regarding the event. Discover:Fed Chair Powell is Under Attack – Silver (XAG/USD) and Gold (XAU/USD) Fresh All-Time HighsTraders are Moving Past Powell's Investigation - US Stock Index Outlook & Pre-CPI Trading LevelsKey Support Holds for GBP/USD as Traders Eye US Inflation and UK GDPStock Market Heatmap – Widespread Rally except for Healthcare and Softwares zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 12, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile cross-asset performance was today with many classes falling, recovering etc.Despite a session which finally turned risk-on, some doubts remain – CPI is coming up tomorrow and with the latest event, things could look grim in any strong beat.Too, with all the geopolitical events, Markets have remained calm. A potential time bomb? Oil and Bitcoin are moving quite sharply since the close. I'll be posting on any headlines if there's any.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 12, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs There has been two themes in FX Markets today.The first one being a huge selloff in the US Dollar after the investigation got revealed, pushing all majors higher (except for one) – The Kiwi Dollar is the standout winner of the session as business confidence rebounded from the latest release.The second, less market shaking, is the fresh wave of Yen selling to start the week. JPY bulls are not enjoying the announcement for next month's Japanese snap elections, when the PM Takaichi could grab more power and drown the Yen in further dilution.The Nikkei actually loves this, up 5% since Friday.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Things will get quite busy in the next 24 hours.Today's evening session will start with a speech from the very influential NY Fed Williams at an International Economics event (look for clues regarding the upcoming Rate Decision and his views for 2026).For the rest, mid-tier data for Australia, Japan, and the UK between 18:30 and 19:00.But the real test will be tomorrow:The US session will start the festivities, with the ADP Weekly report at 8:15 a.m. (Will the labor picture still rebound?)But most importantly, an up-to-date US CPI report.This one will be the most important in almost six months, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics' closure has hurt all reports since October (so the last clear CPI was released in September – that's a while ago!)For the rest of the day, expect a few speeches from Fed officials Musalem and Barkin, two non-voters who still offer interesting insights into their 2026 outlooks.In terms of data, there will be the US New Home Sales release at 10:00 and the US Monthly Budget at 14:00.The evening session will then present some Trade data for China – of high importance for the global economy outlook.Safe Trades and a Successful Week!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The morning session was nothing short of volatile.Overnight futures took a hit following news of the DOJ's investigation into Jerome Powell, once again casting a shadow over the Federal Reserve's independence. Yet, this market—and its traders—should never be underestimated.Stocks caught a bid immediately after the open as participants shrugged off the headlines, using the early drop as yet another buying opportunity.Despite modest percentage gains on the day, the technical achievements are significant: the Dow is pacing for another record close, the Nasdaq is breaching monthly highs, and the S&P 500 is trading at fresh All-Time Highs.Individual names are also making history, with Google (Alphabet) recently breaking the $4T market cap milestone as Apple officially announced that they would require Google services for Apple Intelligence. zoom_out_map Google Daily Chart – Source: TradingView It seems "bad news is good news" in this environment.As long as the investigation remains a headline rather than an official indictment, investors remain resolutely bullish. Supplemented by heightened geopolitical pressures boosting defense and industrial sectors and driving metals to new highs, the trend remains intact.However, expect momentum to potentially taper off as the day progresses; traders will likely begin squaring positions ahead of tomorrow's massive Inflation (CPI) release at 8:30 A.M (expected at +0.3% to 2.7% Y/Y)Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and NFP trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (14:42 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 12, 2026 Healthcare is hurting once again, seeing quite some outflows in the beginning of this after a huge 2025 trading.Financials are also struggling in the session as traders await key earnings for JP Morgan and Bank of New York Mellon tomorrow, while Energy drags from Exxon's CEO comments on "uninvestable" Venezuela projects.The rest of the Market shows green. Read More:NFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayMarkets Today: German Factory Orders Surge, Nikkei Slips as Markets Eye NFP Data & Supreme Court Tariff RulingDow Jones 2H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView Up a strong 1.16% since its open, the Dow is on pace to break new records again, now evolving within a strong intraday upward channel.A huge bull candle with no wicks is showing bull domination ahead of CPI, powered by its Consumer Defensive and Machinery Sectors – Walmart is dominating the charts up 3.70%.A soft report tomorrow could easily send the Dow to 50,000.A strong report however would hurt rate cut prospects and could lead to a retest of Major support (Top candidate being 48,600 and 2H 200-MA).Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance Levels49,650 to 49,670 Current ATH Resistance46,670 All-Time Highs50,000 Potential Psychological ResistanceSupport Levels49,324 2H 50-Period MA49,000 Psychological Pivot48,400 to 48,800 Major Support (2H MA 200 at 48,670)Psychological Support at 48,00045,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView After double top threats and a sluggish price action throughout the past months, the Nasdaq is taking the lead again, brought up by the strong AI stock performance today:AVGO, Oracle, Google, a rebounding Nvidia and many others are pushing the Tech-Heavy index to new highs, also breaking the double-top formed in the past week.Still, traders will need to be cautious regarding short-timeframe bearish divergences.Tomorrow's NFP will be key to monitor whether today's move fakes out or materializes into a real break.Clearing the CPI, staying above 26,860 would point to a test of the October All-Time Highs.Failing to stay above current resistance could lead to a test of the 25,000 Level (25,100 is a key level to watch in this event, things would look bearish below).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (breaking?)Session highs 25,877All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,646 2H MA 50Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsMain Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 12, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 went to break its past day record highs yet again, with the new highs set at 6,986.Similarly to the Nasdaq, traders will need to be cautious regarding a so so optimistic divergence forming as momentum slows during the ascent.To mitigate the slow rise however, a consistent uptrend sustains overall resilience in the Market – The S&P could hold well a disappointing CPI tomorrow.Of course, it will depend on how bad it is (if it is).A bullish CPI could well launch the Spoose beyond 7,000: 7,040 and 7,080 are potential profit-taking levels for the Index.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsATH Resistance 6,945 to 6,975Current All-Time High 6,9731.382% Fib-Extension potential resistance at 7,001Support Levels6,913 4H 50-MA Support6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and Good Luck for tomorrow's NFP!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japanese Markets Closed Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityUS stock futures dipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced that the Trump administration is threatening him with a criminal investigation, sparking fears about the central bank's independence.S&P 500 futures dropped 0.6% after Powell disclosed that the Justice Department is demanding records regarding renovations to the Fed’s offices. This legal pressure marks a serious escalation in President Trump's ongoing dispute with Powell over interest rates, as the President pushes for deeper cuts and has even discussed firing the Fed Chair.Conversely, Asian stock markets rose, driven by tech stocks, as investors were reassured by data showing the US labor market is slowing down but not falling apart. Please note that Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.European Session - European Shares Slip European shares dropped on Monday as political clashes in the US made market participants nervous.The STOXX 600 index fell 0.2%, largely because bank stocks tumbled 1.1%. This decline was driven by President Trump's recent proposal to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for one year, which caused shares of Barclays to fall 4.5% and HSBC to dip 1%.Market anxiety also rose after the Trump administration threatened to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell..In other news, AstraZeneca shares fell slightly after the company was removed from the Nasdaq-100 index, while the French biotech firm Abivax surged nearly 23% after its CEO spoke optimistically about the potential of their new experimental drug.On the FX front, the US dollar dropped sharply on Monday, ending a five-day winning streak as political turmoil in the US prompted investors to sell American assets.The currency fell nearly 0.4% against a basket of major rivals.The Swiss franc was the strongest performer, rising more than 0.5% against the dollar, while the Euro climbed 0.44% to mark its best day in a month.The dollar also weakened slightly against the Japanese Yen and the Chinese Yuan, with the exchange rate for the Yuan dropping to its lowest level in a week.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices broke through the $4,600 barrier for the first time on Monday, setting a new record alongside silver as investors rushed to buy safe assets.This surge is largely driven by the escalating conflict between President Trump and the Federal Reserve, which has made traders nervous about financial stability.Gold jumped 1.7% to trade around $4,585, after briefly peaking at $4,600.33 earlier in the day.Silver performed even better, climbing over 5% to roughly $84 per ounce, following its own all-time high of $84.60.Read More:CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookGold (XAU/USD) Slips 1.2% Before 50-Day MA Provides Support. Acceptance Above $4500/oz Remains KeyMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts Data is largely thin today with markets likely to focus on developments in the renewed Trump-Fed spat which could dominate and drive market sentiment in the early part of the week.The risk of the dollar dropping significantly is high if there are more signs that the government is trying to control the Federal Reserve. To understand where things are heading, market participants should watch the bond market closely. If bond traders start betting on more interest rate cuts (short-term) or start worrying about the Fed's independence (long-term), the dollar could fall.Specifically, if the difference between short-term and long-term bond yields grows sharply (a "steepening curve"), it would likely signal a drop in the dollar's value.Another event that was expected to help the dollar this week is the Supreme Court's ruling on President Trump's tariffs, which could happen between Tuesday and Thursday. Market participants generally expect the court to rule against the tariffs.However, right now, the market is too nervous about the fight between the White House and the Fed to buy dollars comfortably. Before market participants feel safe buying again, they need clarity on this political conflict.If we end up with a mix of high inflation and a politically weakened Fed, it could cause serious concerns about the economy and lead to a major crash in the dollar's value as the week progresses. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The main concerns for bulls at the moment is that the index appears as though we have printed a double-top pattern on the four-hour timeframe as well, a sign that a potential pullback could materialize.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Four-Hour Chart, January 12, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 9The session welcomed a decent NFP report. While the headline number missed expectations by a marginal 10K, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%, effectively easing concerns regarding the downward revisions seen in previous months.Following the release, the US Dollar rallied, but this didn't dampen risk appetite. Stocks pushed higher to conclude the "Freedom Trade" week, with the Nasdaq leading the charge, up 1% on the session.For participants seeking certainty on the US Supreme Court ruling regarding tariffs, patience is still required. Today's "decision day" proved to be a non-event; the market now looks to January 19 in hopes of removing the lingering uncertainty around trade policy.In geopolitics, the situation in Iran is deteriorating rapidly. The regime has severed internet and phone communications for over 24 hours in a desperate bid to calm gigantic protests that could be morphing into a full-blown revolution.Escalation: Unofficial reports suggest casualty numbers have unfortunately surpassed those of the "12-Day War."Regime Stability: Iran President Araghchi has fled to Lebanon with his family, and major carriers like Turkish Airlines have cancelled flights to Tehran.US Stance: The Trump Administration has signaled it is monitoring events closely. Given the rhetoric, a potential intervention over the weekend or early next week cannot be ruled out.This turmoil has put a significant bid under Oil, gapping up to $59 to close the week. With Iran's 5M+ barrels per day capacity at risk and infrastructure potentially compromised, energy markets are pricing in a supply shock. Discover:CPI is back on time – Markets Weekly OutlookNo Decision on Tariffs today – Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD)RallyWhy venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedStock Market Heatmap – Widespread Rally except for Healthcare and Softwares zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 9, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Oil gapped up at the session open as Iran's events have added even more uncertainty for the commodity, ceding its 1st place to Metals yet again.Gold and Silver are closing very near their huge milestones of $4,500 for the yellow metal and $80 for Silver.Apart from this, EU Stocks have rallied quite strongly as flows head back to other global indexes. The EU 50 (EuroStoxx Index) is trading close to the 6,000 mark – US benchmarks had been leading throughout the week. The Nikkei is actually leading other indexes, up a huge 3.80% to close the week.Cryptos are on the other side of the spectrum, really struggling despite their rally in the beginning of the week.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 9, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar took the lead after the very-decent NFP report and is looking quite strong after this week's trading.On the other side, the Japanese Yen is still struggling after PM Takaichi's call for Snap Elections in Mid-February.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week will start with a calm Sunday/Monday session but as the Earnings season comes back and US inflation data is expected to release, it surely won't be the norm.Starting with Asia-Pacific releases, with Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge offering an early read on price pressures, followed by New Zealand business confidence later on Monday—useful signals for regional growth and RBNZ expectations.Europe then takes the baton with ECB commentary from de Guindos and the Sentix investor confidence survey, providing insight into sentiment at the start of the year. In the U.S., Fed speakers (Bostic and Williams) will be watched for any guidance after recent data volatility.The session rounds out with Japan’s current account figures and UK retail sales, giving a final pulse check on global demand and consumption as markets position for a busier macro week ahead.Safe Trades and a Restful Weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review – Geopolitical Turmoil on the Menu Traders have returned to their desks, and volumes are finally normalizing after a holiday period that was anything but boring. Connecting back to the end-December trading, metals rode a rollercoaster that took many to fresh record highs, setting a bar of high expectations for the new year.The weekly open did not disappoint. The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the Trump Administration over the weekend sent shockwaves through the headlines and ignited a wave of excitement across markets.This reaction is rooted in a clear shift: The revival of the Monroe Doctrine—now dubbed the "Donroe Doctrine"—sets a precedent unseen in decades. When viewing this alongside recent administration moves, such as renaming the Department of Defense to the Department of War and shifting military assets to the Caribbean, the market's angst transforms into a realization of a new reality.As the operation unfolded, markets opened a renewed hype: The Freedom Trade.Newfound excitement surged through the US Stock Market, powering the Dow Jones and traditional sectors beyond year-end records. Investors are betting that "America First" is no longer just an isolationist slogan, but a policy that places US strategic interests above all else—including international norms. zoom_out_map Stock Market per Sector Performance since beginning 2026 – Source: TradingView The Market Consequence? Gigantic rallies in Industrials, Materials, Energy, and Consumer Discretionary sectors. The translation is simple: if US External Policy returns to its past century way of operating—global military dominance and strategic shows of strength—traditional sectors stand to benefit the most. The administration is making it clear: the US is not to be reckoned with.The Venezuela capture also extended elsewhere. With threats of intervention now extending to Mexico, Cuba, Colombia, and even Greenland, global heads of state are waking up to defend their interests. The most significant tail risk for sentiment remains the standoff regarding Greenland, which directly challenges the NATO framework.Amidst the geopolitical noise, markets also received crucial economic clues: the US labor picture is not worsening, and the global economy remains resilient, with Global PMIs staying firmly in expansion territory.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – January 9, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals are once again standing on top of the latest geopolitical developments. Gold is up a sneaky 4% on the week, while Silver and Palladium are up above 11%. Discover More:No Decision on Tariffs today – Gold (XAU/USD) and Palladium (XPD/USD)RallyWhy venezuela’s political transition has left oil markets largely unmovedWhat’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookThe Week Ahead – CPI and Elevated TensionsAsia Pacific Markets – Chinese Trade Data and Australian Employment This week wasn't only interesting for North America.Japan saw renewed strength in wage growth data, which, combined with hawkish speeches from Bank of Japan members and strong approval ratings, led PM Takaichi to announce snap elections for mid-February. Her aim is to consolidate power; a victory would make her the first officially elected female Prime Minister in Japanese history.China also released an improved inflation picture. Recent stimulus and a shift toward more business-friendly regulations have sparked a decent rebound from the preceding deflation. As a result, the CNY (Chinese Yuan) is strengthening aggressively and maintaining a higher path.Looking ahead to next week, markets expect a slew of Chinese data. This includes Trade Reports on Tuesday—which will put hard numbers on the state of a fragmented global trade regime—followed by Retail Sales on Wednesday and GDP data on Thursday. Strong Chinese data tends to have a boosting effect on Antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD).Speaking of the Antipodeans, traders will also welcome Australian Employment numbers. Following last week's better-looking but still very hot CPI data (3.4% y/y), expectations for this report are high. A beat here would likely cement the case for a rate hike at the next RBA meeting on February 3.Europe and UK Markets – UK Employment & GDP mixed with European CPIs The UK moves to the forefront for the upcoming week.Following last month's improved inflation data, traders will look to confirm a smoother rate cut cycle for the Bank of England in 2026, provided UK employment figures don't show unexpected strength. The release is scheduled for the Monday-Tuesday overnight session at 2:00 A.M.Amidst appearances by several BoE members, market participants should also expect the UK monthly GDP numbers on Thursday.For the Eurozone, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos—one of the favorites to replace Christine Lagarde—is expected to speak twice. His comments should be tracked closely by EU traders as he looks to cement his standing.On the data front, attention will turn to inflation, with the French and German CPI releases scheduled for Thursday and Friday, respectively.North American Markets – US CPI and A LOT of Fed Speakers The US will finally receive on-time Inflation data, with the CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) releases forming a critical wombo-combo which will be tracked closely by global traders. Scrutiny is particularly high after the last report raised doubts regarding its accuracy; that print came in at 2.7% (vs. 3.4% expected), with the BLS reportedly taking some liberties to fill data gaps caused by the Shutdown.The CPI is expected to land at 0.3% Month-over-Month, a sticky read that would almost certainly dash any hopes for a January rate cut (currently priced at just 10%).Of course, don't forget the US Retail Sales at 8:30, also on Wednesday.Elsewhere, a parade of Fed officials is scheduled to speak. NY Fed President Williams will headline the slate with appearances on Monday and Wednesday. We will also hear from the new 2026 rotation of regional voters, including Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who is also set to speak on Wednesday.To learn more about the 2026 voting rotation, check out our recent publication:Who Are the Fed Speakers to Watch in 2026? A New Front-Runner for the Fed ChairFinally, keep your notifications on for the geopolitical scene: The developing revolution in Iran could have profound implications for Oil markets and the broader global regime.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US Non-Farm Payrolls release at +50K – A slight miss to the +60K ExpectationsThis takes the Unemployment Rate, most favored data since the Bureau of Labor Statistics shutdown affected data, to 4.4%, lower than the 4.5% expectations and lower than the past month.Unrounded numbers show 4.375% vs 4.564% prior. Participation Rate is also slightly lower.Average Hourly Earnings at 0.3% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, a bit higher than expectations on the Y/Y number.The report provides even less reasons for the Fed to cut rates in end-January.You can get full access to the report right here.Don't Forget that Markets will await the Supreme Court Tariffs Decision at 10:00 A.M.It seems that traders are reacting counterintuitively to a not-so-dovish number with the Dollar falling, Gold rallying.Keep an eye at the end of the hour and the 9:30 Market Open to see if such reactions fade.Check out Market reactions:US Dollar (Dollar Index DXY) zoom_out_map DXY 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Gold (XAU/USD) zoom_out_map Gold (XAU/USD) 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Pre-open Dow Jones (Futures and CFD) zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15 min Chart – January 9, 2026. Source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Rebound looks corrective, not impulsive: Silver’s ~6% intraday bounce from US$73.84 appears to be a countertrend rebound after a sharp 10.7% sell-off, with technical patterns suggesting a “dead cat bounce” rather than a trend resumption.Key resistance and downside risk: The US$79.86 level is a critical inflection point. Failure there, followed by a break below US$74.07, would likely open another corrective leg toward US$70.52 and potentially the 50-day moving average zone.Bullish structure intact but delayed: While the long-term secular uptrend remains intact, near-term momentum is fading, and a deeper mean-reversion decline may be needed before the next sustainable bullish impulsive move. The earlier 10.7% drop in Silver (XAG/USD) from its 7 January 2026 high of US$82.77 to yesterday, Thursday, 8 January 2026 low of US$73.84 has started to evolve to see an intraday rally of 6% (low to high) to trade higher at US$78.05 at the time of writing ahead of today’s key risk event; the release of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for December 2025.Read more:Silver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?NFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100However, technical analysis suggests that the short-term corrective decline structure of Silver (XAG/USD) may not have ended, with more potential weakness ahead to shape a mean reversion decline towards its 50-day moving average (around US$62.75/61.91 zone) before the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence within its long-term secular uptrend phase that remains intact since the 18 March 2020 low.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Reaching the inflection point for another potential down leg zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend as of 9 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$79.86 key short-term pivotal resistance on Silver (XAG/USD). A break below US$74.07 increases the odds of another corrective down leg towards the next intermediate support at US$70.52 (also the 20-day moving average) in the first step.Key elements to support the bearish bias Today’s rally from Thursday, 8 January 2026, low of US$73.84 has taken the form of a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” configuration, which suggests a potential “dead cat bounce”.The hourly Stochastic oscillator has flashed out an impending bearish divergence condition at its overbought region, which implies that the upside momentum of the rebound may be fading.The US$79.86 key short-term resistance (potential inflection level to end the rebound) is defined by the pull-back resistance of the former ascending support from 1 January 2026 low and close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline from 7 January 2026 high to 8 January 2026 low.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance with an hourly close above US$79.86 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the US$84.03 key medium-term pivotal resistance (current all-time high of 29 December 2025). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Nikkei Rallies, Finishing the Week 3.2% Higher Most Read: 2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityAsian stock markets fluctuated within a narrow range on Friday as investors waited cautiously for the upcoming US jobs report and a major Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs.Despite an initial dip, Japan’s markets ended the day strong. The Nikkei index climbed 1.6% to close at 51,939.89, securing a 3.2% gain for the week. This rally was largely powered by Uniqlo’s parent company, Fast Retailing, which surged nearly 11% after posting strong earnings; this single stock was responsible for more than two-thirds of the Nikkei's total rise for the day.Japanese automakers also had a good day, boosted by a weaker yen (which increases the value of their overseas profits) and a sense of relief regarding trade tensions. Investors were reassured that China’s new export ban on "dual-use" military items would not completely cut off supplies to civilian Japanese companies.Mazda, Toyota, and Honda all posted solid gains. However, not all news was positive; the retailer Aeon slumped nearly 8% after its earnings disappointed investors. Traders are now looking ahead to the earnings report from robot-maker Yaskawa Electric, due later today, which is seen as a key indicator for the health of the manufacturing sector.Please note that Japanese markets will be closed this coming Monday for a holiday.Chinese Inflation Edges Higher, Near 3-Year Highs China's annual inflation rate rose slightly to 0.8% in December 2025, up from 0.7% the previous month. While this is the highest level since early 2023, it still missed the 0.9% rate that experts had predicted.This marks the third month in a row that consumer prices have increased, driven largely by a jump in food costs, specifically fresh vegetables and fruit which saw their biggest rise in over a year.Outside of food, prices remained mostly stable. Clothing and healthcare costs went up, but housing prices dipped slightly, and transportation costs continued to fall. Core inflation (which ignores volatile food and energy prices) held steady at 1.2%, its highest point in nearly two years.Overall, inflation for the entire year was flat, finishing well below the government's target of around 2%.European Session - European Shares Higher as Rio Tinto Eyes Glencore Takeover European stock markets opened higher on Friday, bouncing back from two days of losses caused by weak earnings and political tension.The STOXX 600 index is now on track for its best winning streak since May, largely thanks to a massive 8% jump in shares of Glencore. This surge happened after rival mining giant Rio Tinto announced it is in early talks to buy Glencore, a deal that would create the world's largest mining company. While Glencore stock hit an 18-month high on the news, Rio Tinto's shares dropped 2.2%.The broader European market rose 0.4%, led by gains in energy and mining companies. Other notable movers included Anglo American, which rose 2.4% on news that its deal with Teck Resources is likely to be approved by European regulators.Tech stocks also performed well; ASML gained 2.1% and STMicroelectronics rose nearly 1% after positive revenue reports from industry partner TSMC.Investors are now waiting for the crucial US jobs report later today, which is expected to show that hiring slowed down in December.On the FX front, the US dollar rose slightly on Friday, reaching its highest level in a month, as investors waited for the upcoming jobs report and a major Supreme Court ruling on President Trump's tariffs. The dollar also strengthened against the Japanese Yen for the fourth straight day.In contrast, the Euro dropped to $1.1644 after data showed that German exports unexpectedly fell, even though industrial production actually improved.Other major currencies struggled as well: the British Pound fell 0.2%, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars both dropped, with the "Kiwi" hitting its lowest point since early December.In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin fell 1% to around $90,170, and Ether slid nearly 1% to roughly $3,085.Currency Power Balance zoom_out_map Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices recovered some of their earlier losses on Friday as investors balanced geopolitical risks against other market factors while waiting for the upcoming U.S jobs report.Although gold dipped slightly to about $4,466 per ounce, it is still on track for a weekly gain of over 2%. High prices have reduced buying in India, but demand in China has increased following the holidays.Other precious metals also performed well: silver rose 0.6% to roughly $77 (heading for a 6% weekly gain), while platinum and palladium also moved higher, with palladium surging over 3% to $1,840.Oil prices climbed for the second day in a row, rising about 1.3% due to concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran.Brent crude reached $62.82 per barrel and US crude hit $58.52. After a strong jump on Thursday, both types of oil are set to finish the week with gains, marking their third straight weekly increase.Read More:Gold (XAU/USD) Slips 1.2% Before 50-Day MA Provides Support. Acceptance Above $4500/oz Remains KeyEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideMonetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleEconomic Calendar and Final Thoughts The European session is set to see the release of Euro Area retail sales data before attention turns to the US session.This week has given us mixed signals about the US economy: the service sector looks good and private hiring is decent, but the number of open jobs has disappointed. While layoffs dropped significantly in December, this is mainly because companies did most of their firing earlier in the year. In fact, for all of 2025, job cuts jumped 58% to over 1.2 million the highest level since 2020.Despite that gloomier yearly picture, traders are feeling a bit more optimistic about today’s jobs report. The unofficial "whisper" expectation among traders has risen to 65,000 new jobs, while the official expert forecast sits at 70,000.However, the most important number to watch today might actually be the unemployment rate, as the Federal Reserve is focused heavily on how many people are out of work. It is expected to improve slightly to 4.5%.If we see that improvement combined with 50,000 to 100,000 new jobs, it will likely be enough to stop the Fed from cutting interest rates in January and keep the chances of a March cut low. My own outlook is for 50,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%.Additionally, the US Supreme Court is scheduled to rule on tariffs today. Most experts expect the court to rule against the tariffs, which could actually boost the dollar, as investors believe removing these trade barriers would strengthen the job market and encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical perspective, the FTSE 100 index has finally breached the psychological 10000 mark.Price has pulled back since with bouts of volatility and that shouldn't be a surprise. When price breaches such psychological levels we do tend to see some volatile price swings.The one concern for bulls at the moment is that the index is hovering in overbought territory which means a pullback may be imminent.Immediate support which may be tested in the near-term include the 9973 and 9943 handles respectively.However, a key level on the four-hour chart for bullish continuation will be the psychological 10000 mark. A break of this level could bring a deeper correction into play.FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, January 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 8The session is closing on a mixed note, painting a classic pre-NFP picture: choppy, directionless trading across most asset classes, but with a few very specific stories driving the undercurrents.One thing that stands out is Oil and Energy Markets, which are rising sharply after yesterday's strange correction. The protests in Iran—which are rapidly looking less like civil unrest and more like the early stages of a full-blown Revolution—are reigniting serious concerns about energy supply volatility.The market consensus had been that the Venezuela developments were surprisingly "uneventful" in terms of immediate WTI price spikes (likely due to the long lead time for Venezuelan supply to actually come online). However, Iran is a different beast. With strikes reported on pipelines and gas shortages fueling the anger, the risk of an immediate supply shock is far more tangible as the sanctioned nation remains one of the largest suppliers of Black Gold.This fear is filtering directly into equities. Energy stocks and Industrials are doing the heavy lifting for the major indices today, effectively acting as a hedge against geopolitical escalation – This is leading to the Dow Jones rallying while the Nasdaq retreats.\ Meanwhile, the "debasement" favorites—Metals and Cryptos—remain subdued, perhaps catching their breath or wary of a hot wage number in tomorrow's report.Today effectively serves as the final calm session before what could be a significant storm. The NFP report is less than 16 hours away, and its importance cannot be overstated. After the data distortions of late 2025, this is the first "clean" look at the labor market. The most influential traders and institutional heavyweights are sitting on their hands, waiting for this specific data point to place their full sized first major macro bets of 2026. Discover:Defensive Stocks Rotation ahead of NFP - Index Outlook and NFP Trading LevelsNFP Preview: Federal Reserve’s Pivot at a Crossroads, Implications for the US Dollar & Nasdaq 100Monetary policy divergence: Australia & Eurozone CPI and the EUR/AUD tumbleStock Market Heatmap – Energy and Industrials lead while Healthcare and Tech lag zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 8, 2026 Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 8, 2026 – Source: TradingView Except for Energy and the Dow which led global assets in today's action, the surprising move remained the US Dollar, rising against all its FX peers as its upbeat Layoffs data reassured ongoing economic strength for the global leader.Expect much more volatility in tomorrow's session!A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 8, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX movement was heavily subdued today as traders get ready for tomorrow's NFP report.Nothing to see here but get ready for tomorrow: Will Antipodeans and the Yuan continue to outperform?Interesting developments could take place tomorrow.A weak NFP should see harsh USD correction with a mirror approach in the case of a beat.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The end of the week opens with Asia in focus, as China releases December CPI and PPI. Inflation remains subdued, keeping deflation risks on the radar and reinforcing expectations for continued policy support if the lack of price pressures fail to stabilize – Previous reports have still shown some improvements so this one will be watched closely.The Yuan also has been rising substantially recently, so these developments could prove important particularly for the AUD and NZD!There will be some relatively important data for the Eurozone with Retail Sales releasing at 5:00 A.M. but traders will all be awaiting for the North American Session:The main event comes later with Canada and the U.S. labor reports released simultaneously (8:30 A.M). Canada’s jobs data will be closely watched after November’s strong gains, while the U.S. delivers the full payrolls package alongside wages, participation, and underemployment. Housing data and several Fed speakers follow, before the session wraps up with preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations—key inputs for rate and FX positioning into the new week.Don't forget to check out our NFP Preview on MarketPulse.Safe Trades and Good Luck for tomorrow's NFP Release!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.