Things have changed quite remarkably since the broadly optimistic morning session.As pointed out in this interesting report, there might have been some selection biases in the BLS construction of this CPI release, tilting the numbers to the downside.Accuracy issues for data releases may hurt confidence prospects for Public data going forward.With the next CPI report expected on January 13, traders will want to see if major revisions to today's number will actually affect the Rate Cut expectations.Gold tested a new All-time high $4,400 before falling sharply, Stock markets are making new lows and Bonds are selling off.These flows don't inspire much confidence. zoom_out_map Market reactions to CPI 15M Charts for S&P 500, Oil, 10-Year Bonds, Gold, Bitcoin and the USD. December 18 – Source: TradingView (Updated at 12:40 ET) Read More:WTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsMarkets Today: Nikkei at 3-Week Lows, Silver, Gold Hold the High Ground as BoE Cut Rate 25 bps, ECB Next Flows are volatile and are expected to stay like this towards the end of the week before things settle down for Holiday Trading.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Equity Markets welcomed a large miss on the US Inflation report from this morning.While the weekly labor Jobless Claims report continued to affirm a softening but not crashing employment picture, high concerns on US Inflation and its prospects for 2026 were hurting Appetite for Stocks.Combined with quite gloomy reports from Fed Members, US NFP and the latest Bank of America Survey, it seemed that the trading days leading to the end of the calendar year would not be as joyful as early 2025 was.But the huge miss in this morning's CPI report helped to ease the uncertainty. A 0.4% miss on the 3.1% high expectations have largely helped Swap Traders to price in higher odds of a more prolonged Rate Cut cycle from the Fed. A great booster for Equity demand that could underpin the rally for US Index higher levels ahead. The rest is to see if the data wasn't biased in some sort as doubts remain from the way the CPI report was conducted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reopened after a 1.5 month closure which clouded the inflation picture and data collection. zoom_out_map Minimal US Rate in 2026 – Change in Cut pricing since the FOMC (More cuts priced). Source: FedWatch Tool (CME) The ongoing rally is a strong one and with fair reasons.Stocks rallying to all-time highs were helped by more Rate cut expectations. These expectations were halted due to inflation concerns. But with this report essentially allowing the Fed to maneuver further with the help of lower inflation, the path higher can start again. It will be key to see if the bullish sentiment holds towards the Golden Week and yearly close to conclude yet another bullish Yearly candle for US Stock Markets. And also if new all-time highs can be reached. zoom_out_map Dow Jones Yearly Chart Since 1900 (log scale) – December 2025. Source: TradingView Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Read More:US CPI Misses Sharply at 2.7% (3.1% exp); BoE Cuts Rates to 3.75% as ECB Holds at 2% – Market ReactionsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Magnificent 7 are Shining Bright, a broadly green picture zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:13 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 18, 2025 Except for the Energy sector, the entire Market is rallying, dragged higher by its Mag 7 Leaders – Best performers of the session.Dow Jones 2H Chart – Erases its past day correction zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView DJIA bulls have come back strong after the encouraging CPI report to break above the Correction channel.The buying is now stalling at slightly overbought RSI levels so there will be two things to watch around here (Session highs 48,444)Whether Bulls manage to get further momentum to pull prices above the 48,500 mark – Bullish continuationOr a pullback selling comes in if it stalls at a retest of the Channel (+ 2H 50-period MA around 48,250) if the retracement comes all the way back to 48,000, a rangebound picture will be expectedDow Jones technical levels of interest (unchanged from yesterday)Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,444November ATH 48,300 to 48,500, acting as resistance (testing)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000Pre-NFP 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Leading its peers yet again zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Tech-Heavy Index took the reigns of this session, brought back on the battlefield by its 7 Generals.Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) are posting their best performances in a while and dragging the other tech stocks with them.Tesla (TSLA) is on track to break new all-time highs in Case you missed it.Overall, there is still some road to cover for bulls, as the index trades 4% away from its 26,182 Record.But having broken its descending channel, things are looking better.Breaching the 25,000 to 25,250 Pivot will be essential if bulls want to retake the Momentum – For now looking Neutral (from bearish).Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportAn interesting Chart for Santa Rally believers! zoom_out_map S&P 500 Performance after December 15 – Source: X, posted by Ryan Detrick S&P 500 2H Chart – Coming back into its range zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – December 18, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P makes a comeback right into its 6,800 to 6,900 Range after faking out below the consolidation yesterdayAfter a fakeout, one thing to remember is to keep a close eye on the mid-range level (around 6,850) to spot if bulls fully retake their lost advantage.Rejecting the middle could point to higher odds of another breakdown.Breaking above confirms the return of bulls.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for December 17Yesterday's afternoon session brought some hopes for dip-buying after a rough weekly open, but the reality of uncertain times ahead came right back with a red selling wave.Traders are reflecting on the unusual year ahead.Will it be a Hard Landing? Will the long wars end? Is the AI boom really a bubble?Questions worth many millions.But some more immediate factors are affecting financial flows:Participants are getting ready for a second yearly Bank of Japan rate hike which may reduce carry trade potentials yet again (a strong booster for Markets) and the employment picture for the largest Economy is sending some scary signs.Inflation remains the X factor which could decide whether the Fed has an easy way to cut rates further or not.Stagflation is not friendly for Markets. zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap (16:05 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 16, 2025 Read More:Markets Slide as US Employment Falters – North American Mid-Week Market UpdateEUR/USD Forecast: ECB & US CPI to Drive Price Action, Bulls Remain in Control Above 1.1600 HandleUS Index Analysis: Nasdaq bleeding, S&P 500 and Dow Jones hurtingMetals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsCross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil is rallying back quite sharply after reaching its yearly troughs just yesterday – Check out our latest analysis of the Commodity to learn more.For the rest, Risk-Assets took quite a hit after yesterday's hopeful rebound, with all Stock Indexes finishing the session lower.Bitcoin was subject to quite a pump and dump to $90,000, while metals kept rallying ever higher.Platinum actually reached some 14 year highs, breaking the 2008 peak.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, December 17 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session was roughly a reversal day of the past week's flows.The Yen gave back some of its advances as traders stop unwinding their positions ahead of the BoJ meeting tomorrow evening.On the other hand the US dollar rallied back higher after its negative post-NFP trading.Expect A LOT of movement in FX tomorrow.If you don't believe me, check out the Economic Calendar just below.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this evening and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The Evening to tomorrow should be quite a ride for FX traders.The evening session will start with Kiwi GDP for New Zealand Dollar traders at 16:45 PM.But tomorrow is the real deal, with a cocktail of Central Bank Rate decisions coupled with some Huge data for the US.To begin with, nothing more than a couple of Rate Decisions for the Bank of England (25 bps cut highly expected) from 4% to 3.75% at 7:00 A.M. ET.Expect dovish communications after the streak of slower data between a miss in Employment and this morning's lower-than-expected (but still high) inflation.(Check out our recent preview for the event right here).The second one will follow shortly after with the ECB Rate Decision at 8:15 A.M. This one should be less eventful but 2026 communications could be interesting.Just 15 minutes after, the long-awaited US CPI number will be released after a long absence for such data.The 8:30 A.M. bell will also bring the weekly Jobless claims data.The afternoon should be calmer, but expect more action later in the day: NZD trade, Japanese inflation until the evening session when the Bank of Japan Rate Hike should be delivered. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Last week, the FOMC delivered a highly expected 25 bps cut, which was quickly repriced from the final stretch of November trading.But at what cost?As Fed Goolsbee warned, cutting preemptively risks boosting an inflation rate that remains a wildcard—a concern that will be tested by tomorrow’s November CPI report.For equity bulls this is starting to be a real concern: reignited inflation could severely compromise the prospects for future cuts in 2026.The overall theme for US Markets going into next year is one of uncertainty. zoom_out_map US Unemployment Rate since 1980 – Rounding Higher. Source: FRED On one hand, the North American economy is still performing quite well, as seen with Canada’s recent upbeat data and overall strong US GDP numbers.On the other hand, Markets are forward-looking, and participants are starting to wonder if things can get much better from here as valuations could be overextended relative to the current environment.If high prices are met with earnings disappointments, the fallout could be painful.Meanwhile, the Trump Administration continues to surprise investors—who had largely decided to ignore political noise throughout 2025—with renewed geopolitical volatility involving Venezuela.However, there is a glimmer of hope as the Ukraine-Russia conflict finally begins to look a bit more stable.Two real catalysts that could relaunch markets into genuine momentum would be the cancellation of tariffs in 2026, or the appointment of a truly credible Fed Chair.Until then, visibility remains low—things should get at least a bit clearer after tomorrow’s pivotal CPI report. Read More:US Index Analysis: Nasdaq bleeding, S&P 500 and Dow Jones hurtingMetals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?North-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones, which got a significant boost from the FOMC rate cut, is the only OECD index trading higher after the past week and a half stretch.But things are looking sour for equities overall. Tech is looking pretty dark – Nasdaq is down 3.70% since last Monday.Bulls will need to hold tight to avoid beginning the next year on a rough start.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 8H Chart, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index broke its support and just formed a break-retest formation of its preceding support (98.50 to 98.80 Pivot Zone), pointing at further downside.Still, things will be interesting particularly if cuts get pushed back further which once again depends on tomorrow's inflation number.If bears keep control of the action (keep an eye on the downwards channel).The MA 50 to 200 forming a bear cross could also be bringing further reasons for sellers to maintain their activity.Levels to place on your DXY charts:Resistance Levels98.50 to 98.80 Pivot ZonePivot turned Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main resistance zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips) – Current test97.87 Daily lows97.40 to 97.80 August Range SupportMini-support 98.502025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, December 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, December 17, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The Loonie came strong against the AUD and USD, but these currencies have generally been the weakest of majors of the past few weeks.European currencies keep their hard grip on the Loonie and the USD once again.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips and 4H MA 501.38730 FOMC Highs1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.40 ResistanceSupport LevelsAugust support 1.3750Past week lows 1.37301.3660 July Breakout support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Bank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100EUR/USD has had an interesting day as a stronger US Dollar has pushed the pair down for a retest of support at the 1.1700 handle. However, bulls remain interested and this is evidenced by the bounce back toward the 1.1750 handle as the day wore on.The rest of this week still brings US CPI and an ECB meeting into the picture. This begs the question, where will EUR/USD be on the last day of 2025? Let us take a look at all the factors that could play a role and shape price action over the coming days.ECB Meeting Preview The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow. Markets have already priced in a stable deposit rate of 2.0%, and nearly all major institutions predict no change. While the decision itself seems predetermined, the meeting is expected to be tense due to significant disagreements within the Governing Council regarding the future path of inflation and interest rates.The central conflict lies between "dovish" members, who want to cut rates sooner, and "hawkish" members, who advocate for patience. New macroeconomic projections are fueling this debate. Inflation is expected to fall below the 2% target in 2026 and 2027 (around 1.7%), which supports the argument for cutting rates now. However, inflation is projected to rise back above the target in 2028, largely due to delayed carbon pricing regulations.The "hawks" argue that the Eurozone economy is resilient with growth expected to exceed 1% in 2025 and that the bank should not react to temporary dips in inflation when long-term risks remain. If ECB President Christine Lagarde adopts a "hawkish" tone during the press conference, emphasizing this resilience and a commitment to keeping rates restrictive, it could boost the value of the Euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD exchange rate toward 1.1900.For a full ECB Preview, read ECB: Rates on hold, debate heats upUS CPI Release The BLS office cannot publish monthly inflation figures for October because the recent government shutdown stopped them from collecting the necessary price data.Instead, they will only release the yearly inflation rate for November, which I expect to rise to 3.2%, up from 3% in September. This increase is largely caused by higher taxes on imported goods and rising insurance premiums.Despite this rise, inflation isn't expected to climb much further because energy is getting cheaper, rent hikes are slowing, and pay raises are becoming smaller. By the second half of 2026, the inflation rate should fall back down to around 2.5%.In the short-term though, a spike in inflation could add some strength to the US Dollar.and thus weigh on EUR/USD zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis on EUR/USD Let us start with the technical picture on the four-hour chartEUR/USD has found significant support at the 1.1700 handle which was the swing high on December 4.A retest earlier in the day and aggressive bounce highlights this area as crucial to immediate bullish continuation.The period-14 RSI also bounced back above the 50 level, a sign of bullish momentum.The four-hour chart below also sees price trading within an ascending channel of sorts. Some may see the channel as a bear flag as well which would hint at a break lower.However, the overarching macro picture hints at bullish continuation which makes an upside break of the channel seem more likely at this stage.EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart, December 17, 2025 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.com Support1.17001.1657 (100-day MA)1.1572Resistance1.18001.1919 (YTD Highs)1.2000 (psychological level)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The toppy price action following the post-FOMC rallies is finally taking its toll, hurting risk sentiment quite harshly.Even without the context of a potential AI bubble, the real catalyst for the current drop appears to be a lack of confidence for the upcoming year.The Nasdaq is leading all major US Indexes on the way down, dragging the S&P 500 and Dow Jones with it.Between double tops, profit-taking after a fantastic year, and increasingly blurry fundamentals, the year-end outlook is dimming. The "Santa Rally" has yet to show up. zoom_out_map US Indexes Daily Chart Outlook – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The macro backdrop isn't helping: Fed Chair candidates are signaling bias rather than confidence, employment is showing cracks (though far from breaking), and inflation remains uncomfortably high. The overarching theme is no longer investor confidence, but caution.We will know more about the state of inflation tomorrow morning at 8:30 A.M. ET. I cannot emphasize enough how important this inflation report will be.Overall, Equity valuations are extreme, and the Market seems overly optimistic but AI is a real revolution in terms of profit margin generation for big firms.But some more technical factors, highlighted by a brilliant Bank of America Survey points out to Fund Managers not having much cash left in the bank.So when investors are "tits up" long, it's difficult to see who will print new highs. zoom_out_map Cash Levels by Fund Managers – Bank of America Managers Survey from December 16. Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500. Discover More:Metals explode: Silver (XAG/USD) hits record $66 as Platinum (XPT/USD) breaks 2011 highsWTI Oil prices at 2025 Lows – Opportunity or Trap?BoJ preview: Interest rate hike baked in, what’s next for the JPY (further appreciation)?Tech Stocks and Producer Manufacturing are dragging Stocks lower zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (11:56 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 17, 2025 Dow Jones 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones is hurting less than its peers despite the correction.Keep a very close eye on the Tuesday lows (47,943) and the overall 48,000 close for the rest of the year.Breaking below could trigger further downsideRebounding here points to the further respecting the Downwards channel from the correctionBreaking back above 48,460 (November highs) would be necessary for Bulls to retake control of the actionDow Jones technical levels of interest (unchanged from yesterday)Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,88648,300 mini-resistance (channel top)November Highs 48,459 – top of retracement channel, acting as resistance50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsNFP Day lows 47,493Short-term support 47,800Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView Tech stocks are hurting quite harshly, leading to the Nasdaq giving up its entire recovery from yesterday and reaching bi-weekly lows.The 25,000 level which was acting as pivotal support is may now act as resistance as sentiment sours.The daily candle is not looking good but there is some small dip-buying to keep track of.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsPivot 25,000 to 25,25025,274 daily highsResistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsSession lows 24,77724,500 Channel lows and Main support October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – December 17, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P officially broke its 6,800 to 6,900 consolidation which had been holding the Index for a while.Some small buying is occurring at the support but from how things look, there will need to be quite a bullish candle to come back into the range for Bulls to take back control of the action.It is now bearish on the short-term.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot (6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support LevelsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key elements BoJ hike is fully priced, normalization to continue: Markets assign a ~94% probability to a 25bp BoJ hike to 0.75%, backed by firm wage growth, improving consumer confidence, and strong Tankan sentiment—pointing to further gradual tightening into 2026.Policy divergence favours JPY structurally: A December hike would underscore the BoJ as the lone major central bank tightening while the Fed eases, reinforcing medium-term appreciation bias for the yen.USD/JPY near-term bias turns bearish: Technicals signal fading upside momentum; below 156.10, risks skew toward a pullback toward 154.40 and lower, with rallies vulnerable unless resistance is decisively cleared. The short-term overnight interest rate swap market in Japan has already priced in a high chance of 94% chance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike for the second time this year (within its current gradual normalization monetary policy stance) by 25 basis points this Friday, 19 December to bring the overnight policy rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years.A move on Friday would cement the BOJ’s status as the only major central bank raising rates this year. It would also mark the first instance since the BOJ adopted its two-day meeting format in 1998 that it and the Federal Reserve move policy rates in opposite directions within the same month.Rising wages, consumer confidence, and Tankan business sentiment zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Key Japan economic data that BoJ watches as of 15 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Japan overnight indexed swap rates as of 16 Dec 2025 (Source: MacroMicro) On top of BoJ Governor Ueda’s recent hawkish remarks on the justification to maintain the BoJ’s stance of gradual interest rate rises, several key economic data points other than the core-core CPI trend (excluding fresh food and energy) that the BoJ monitors have flashed out “all clear” signs to enact another rate hike after an 11-month pause since January’s hike.The latest Q4 Tankan business sentiment survey for large manufacturing companies operating in Japan has risen to almost a 3-year high at 15.0. The mood of Japanese consumers has also improved since April 2025, when consumer sentiment rose to a 19-month high of 37.50 in November 2025 (see Fig. 1).In addition, the latest BoJ’s report on wages published on Monday, 15 December 2025, has indicated that a firm wage growth momentum is likely to continue into the new fiscal year of 2026 at the same average growth rate of 5.25% in fiscal year 2025 as secured by Rengo, the largest trade union confederation in Japan.Hence, the BoJ is likely to continue its gradual interest rate hike cycle into 2026, as priced in by the interest rate swap market. The 1-year overnight-indexed swap rate has increased to 0.84% as of 16 December 2025 (see Fig. 2).Let’s now uncover the potential short-term directional movement of the USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective.Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) of USD/JPY – Bearish below 156.10 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: USD/JPY minor trend as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 4: USD/JPY medium-term & major trends as of 17 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The USD/JPY has continued to oscillate within a minor descending channel that has been in place since reaching a 10-month high of 157.90 on 20 November 2025.Bearish bias below 156.10 key short-term pivotal resistance, and a break below 154.40 near-term support resumes the minor bearish impulsive down move sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 153.70 and 152.95 (see Fig. 3).Key elements The daily MACD trend indicator of the USD/JPY has staged a bearish breakdown below a key ascending support on 4 December 2025 and is trending downwards steadily towards its centre line (see Fig. 4).These observations from the daily MACD trend indicator suggest the multi-month up move of the USD/JPY from April 2025 low to November 2025 high is at a rising risk of a trend change towards a bearish bias (see Fig. 4).The hourly RSI on USD/JPY is rapidly approaching overbought territory (above 70), signalling that the rebound seen during the Asia session on Wednesday, 17 December 2025, is likely to lose bullish momentum in the near term (see Fig. 3).Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 156.10 invalidates the bearish bias on the USD/JPY to see a further potential squeeze up to retest the next intermediate resistances at 156.60 and 157.00/157.15. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil prices have been tumbling without stopping in a stable but continuous downtrend.A positive development that encourages cuts by reducing inflation expectations for consumers, but with prices back to January 2021 levels, producers are pressured to decrease investment in technology and rig development.For example, US Shale is known to be profitable at around $70 per barrel.As pressure mounts, producers can be squeezed out of the Market, which can then result in a too-short supply in the future, potentially raising future prices in the energy commodity. zoom_out_map Falling Inventories and Falling Oil Prices – Source: LSEG, published by Ian Harnett Following a mid-October trough, better-looking Chinese demand led to a rebound in prices to $60 in mid-November; however, prices have since fallen rapidly.Current factors for the fall in Oil include:The current OPEC+ high supply is known to hurt demand, as intra-organizational dynamics point to some members wanting to restrain margins to capture market share.The Market could also be pricing a reopening of the Venezuelan Oil Market to OECD markets if pressure on Maduro from the Trump Administration increases.We are still far from this, but the rising tensions between Washington and Caracas are surely getting priced into the Market. In case you did not know, Venezuela sits on the largest proven Oil reserves in the world, even surpassing Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer.Traders are also pricing a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, which could lead to more supply, leading to the current substantial fall. zoom_out_map World's Proven Oil Reserves by Country – Source: GIS Caveat on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire acting as bearish force Throughout this conflict, there has been many mentions of Russian supply to the West being reduced, but to sponsor their war, Russians have found ways.Finding new buyers is one: by offering cheap oil and flooding the Markets, there is still large interest for Russian Oil – China and India, the two largest Oil consumers being the biggest buyers (without counting some EU countries still dependent on the imports)Shadow Fleets are also common, with Tankers from Turkey allowing to transport and sell sanctioned Oil to Western buyers under legal names – Discover the Sanctions ParadoxMy contrarian view is one of a Russia-Ukraine conflict ending which could actually be a bullish catalyst for Oil prices, as illegal, cheaper oil would be less available and a reopening of traditional Markets to Russia could add to the competitive bidding. That could result in a sell-the-rumour, buy-the-news reaction.But it's just a theory.In any case, let's dive into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI Oil to spot if Oil trading at 2025 presents a technical opportunity or a trap. Discover:US Stocks struggle: Unemployment rate ticks up to 4.6% after NFP releaseBank of England (BoE) Preview: A Hawkish Cut in a Stagnating Economy? Implications for the GBP & FTSE 100NFP Market Reactions: Gold and metals rally; Stocks open timidlyUS Oil (WTI) Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Oil has broken below its short-term Channel mentioned in our preceding Analysis, strongly reacting to the 50-Day Moving Average.The MA stands out as the key Technical Indicator for the Oil trend, providing very strong entry points throughout the descent.As a matter of fact, any long-term technical reversal would be valid only on a weekly close above the 50-Day MA.With no sign of divergence and a consistent fall, technicals are signalling that the downtrend is stable and is not showing signs of weakness.Nevertheless, some reversal signs could be emerging on shorter timeframes.Let's dive into it.4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 4H Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView A reversal could be near, with the second wave of selling forming an exact measured move of the preceding selloff.Coming in precisely at the lows of the Daily Channel seen on the higher timeframe, elements are adding into a potential reversal.The price action is still mostly bearish, so to get confirmation of such a reversal, traders will need to see a bullish candle which closes at least above the preceding 4H candle ($55.65).Levels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance LevelsKey September Resistance $65 to $66May range Resistance $63 to $64$60.90 Past Week highs$58.265 short-timeframe pivot levelMay Range lows support $59.00 to $60.50 (Broken, now Major Pivot)Support Levels$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows (testing)Session lows $55.002019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.501H Chart zoom_out_map US Oil (WTI) 1H Chart, December 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView The selloff is very strong and may not reverse suddenly.Keep an eye on whether the session closes below $55.00 which acts as the key level for further action.A weekly close would confirm a further breakdown.Failing to break the lows however may lead to some consolidation. As said on the 4H timeframe, any reversal would require an initial sign of reversal (strong bull candle).Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Bank of England’s (BoE) final Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2025, scheduled for December 18, arrives amid strong conviction from financial markets: a festive interest rate cut is imminent. After a recent pause, the BoE is widely expected to resume its easing cycle, a move necessitated by a stalling UK economy and confirmed disinflationary signals.However, the decision is far from unanimous, and the resulting vote split and crucially, the forward guidance that accompanies it and will determine the market reaction and the economic outlook for 2026. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) The Potential Decision: A Narrow Rate Cut to 3.75% The overwhelming expectation, priced in by over 90% of the market, is for the MPC to vote for a 25 basis point (bp) cut, lowering the Bank Rate from 4.00% to 3.75%. This would mark the central bank's fourth rate cut of the year.This move follows a decision to keep rates unchanged in November, when Governor Andrew Bailey said he needed more proof that inflation was truly slowing down before making any changes.Weak Growth: UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, missing forecasts and confirming the economy's anaemic performance since mid-year. Economic growth is expected to remain weak well into 2026.Soft Labour Market: Unemployment has crept up to 5%, hiring surveys remain weak, and wage growth, a key indicator for underlying inflation, is rapidly slowing toward more manageable levels. zoom_out_map Source: ING Think Cooling Inflation: Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) has fallen to 3.6%, generally tracking the BoE’s projections.Despite these strong reasons to cut rates, the decision will likely be very close, with a predicted 5-to-4 vote. Governor Bailey is expected to be the deciding vote, likely siding with the group that favors lower rates (the "dovish" camp). This sharp division among the voters highlights just how difficult the current economic situation is for the central bank to manage.Given the split and the challenges facing the BoE a ‘hawkish cut’ may be the compromise. The Bank will deliver the 25bps reduction to support growth but will utilize the meeting minutes and the Governor's press conference to issue cautious guidance.Message: "We are adjusting the level of restriction, not stimulating the economy."Guidance: They will likely signal that future cuts are not automatic and will depend on data, specifically services inflation. This is designed to prevent the market from pricing in an aggressive 50bps cut cycle that could devalue the Pound too rapidly.I could of course be wrong but this would seem like the most logical step for the BoE.Market Implications: Pricing the Pivot Market participants have aggressively positioned for this outcome, but the nuance of the decision will determine price action across asset classes.Sterling (GBP) OutlookThe Pound is trading in a precarious range, heavily influenced by the divergence between the UK’s stagnation and the US’s relative resilience.GBP/USD (Cable): Currently trading near 1.3360-1.3400. The pair has been supported recently by a broadly weaker US Dollar (following the Fed’s dovish signals).Reaction to Cut: A "dovish cut" (cut + signal of rapid future easing) could see GBP/USD break support at 1.3280. A "hawkish cut" (cut + caution) would likely see the pair test resistance at 1.3420-1.3500.Strategic View: The medium-term outlook for GBP is negative due to the weak growth fundamentals (GDP -0.1%) and the correlation to risk-off sentiment. If the UK enters a technical recession while the US achieves a soft landing, the yield differential will move against Sterling.GBP/USD Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) EUR/GBP: With the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to hold rates in December , a BoE cut widens the policy divergence in favor of the Euro. This could put upward pressure on EUR/GBP.Gilt Markets (Government Bonds)The Gilt market is poised for a "bull steepening" of the yield curve.Short End (2-Year): Yields are expected to fall as they track the reduction in the Bank Rate to 3.75%.Long End (10-Year): Goldman Sachs forecasts 10-year yields to fall to 4.25% by year-end and 4.00% by end-2026. However, concerns about the fiscal deficit (increased borrowing in the Reeves budget) provide a floor to how far long-term yields can fall.FTSE 100: The impact is mixed. While lower rates help, a stronger Pound (if the cut is hawkish) hurts the overseas earnings of the large-cap exporters. Conversely, if the Pound falls, the FTSE 100 typically outperforms.FTSE 100 Daily Chart, December 16, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Challenges and Risks for the Bank of England Moving Forward The Bank of England's Three Big Risks In 2026, the Bank of England faces a difficult situation where it must choose between three dangerous paths, often called a "trilemma."Risk 1: Causing a Recession If the bank is too cautious and cuts interest rates too slowly, the slight economic shrinkage we saw in October could turn into a serious recession. This would likely cause unemployment to shoot up past 5.5%, forcing the bank to make panic cuts later, which would make people lose trust in the economy.Risk 2: Letting Inflation Return On the other hand, if the bank cuts rates too quickly while the government’s new budget raises business costs, inflation could get stuck at a high level of 3% to 4%. This would make everything more expensive for longer and might force the bank to suddenly raise rates again—a chaotic cycle similar to the economic trouble of the 1970s.Risk 3: Corporate Bankruptcy Finally, there is a risk to businesses. Although banks are currently safe, many companies need to refinance their debts in 2026. If interest rates stay high, these companies might not be able to afford their loans and could go bankrupt. A wave of business failures would eventually hurt the banks that lent them money.Final Verdict Market participants should prepare for a rate cut that feels "hawkish" in its delivery. The BoE will cut, but they will promise nothing regarding the speed of future easing.This creates a complex environment for Sterling, which may struggle to find direction until the 2026 inflation data clarifies the path to the terminal rate. The era of 4% interest rates is ending; the era of managing the "stagflation exit" has begun.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which comes out on December 16, 2025, is the first full look at the US job market since September, and it will be a crucial factor in determining the Federal Reserve's (Fed) strategy for interest rates throughout 2026.This jobs data will either prove that the Fed was right to implement the controversial rate cuts of 75 basis points since September, or it will suggest that the central bank was too aggressive in cutting rates.The report is complicated because it includes both October and November job numbers and is slightly skewed by issues like the recent government shutdown and delayed resignations of federal workers.Most Read: Santa Claus Rally Strategy: How to Trade the S&P 500's Most Reliable Seasonal PatternFor this reason, experts suggest ignoring the main unemployment rate and focusing instead on the number of new jobs added in November and the changes in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), which track how much wages are rising.Significant market swings are expected because market participants are betting on much deeper rate cuts in 2026 than the Fed has officially planned. This creates a unique situation where Gold could rise strongly regardless of the outcome, while the currently low US Dollar has a greater potential to suddenly jump in value. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Complex Expectations: Analyzing the Dual-Month Release and Distortion The upcoming NFP report will release two months of jobs data simultaneously, though the most important figure is for November. The jobs number for October is expected to be a loss of about 10,000 jobs, but this is largely ignored because it's due to a technical issue: many federal workers who resigned had their departure dates delayed, resulting in a temporary, one-time drop in the count.The crucial expectation for November NFP is a modest recovery, adding about 50,000 jobs, which is a major slowdown from the 119,000 jobs gained in September. This expected number is uncertain, with forecasts ranging widely, and the risk is tilted toward a lower number, especially after a separate report (the ADP) unexpectedly showed a loss of 32,000 private sector jobs.A key concern for the Fed is inflation, which they measure through Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), or wage growth. This is expected to rise by 0.3% from the previous month, translating to an annual growth of 3.7%. Since the main unemployment rate is unreliable right now, AHE is the clearest signal the Fed has to judge how tight the job market is and how high the risk of inflation is.Finally, the official Unemployment Rate for October will not be released at all because the government shutdown prevented the necessary data from being collected. The rate for November is expected to suddenly spike to around 4.5% to 4.7%.However, this sharp increase is not considered a true sign of economic weakness but rather a temporary glitch: federal employees who were temporarily sent home (furloughed) during the reference week of the government shutdown will be mistakenly counted as unemployed. Because of this issue, the market is expected to largely ignore the high unemployment rate and focus primarily on the raw payrolls number and the wage inflation figures.Policy Crossroads: The Federal Reserve’s 2026 Rate Path Divergence The market currently has a very different view from the Fed on interest rates for 2026, which is expected to create high market volatility. Traders are betting that the Fed will cut rates two more times by September 2026. However, the Fed's own latest forecast (Dot Plot) suggests they only expect one cut for the entire year of 2026.If the November jobs report is stronger than expected, the market will be forced to quickly reduce its bets on those extra rate cuts and move closer to the Fed's more cautious projection. This would strengthen the argument from some Fed members who believed the central bank was in a "comfortable position to wait" before cutting rates.This risk of the market having to "reprice" its expectations is why the NFP report is considered the single most important event for setting the tone of monetary policy in the first part of 2026.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Gold The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received. zoom_out_map Source: Table Created by Zain Vawda US Dollar (DXY) Strategy: Asymmetric Upside RiskThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a near-term downtrend and is technically oversold due to aggressive market pricing of future rate cuts. This technical positioning creates an asymmetric risk profile:Weak Data Scenario: A weak NFP print (e.g., net job losses) validates the dovish market stance. Downside momentum would accelerate, targeting the "measured move" objective near prior support at 97.60.Strong Data Scenario: A stronger-than-expected November payrolls report (e.g., above 75k) would trigger a rapid unwinding of dovish expectations. This necessitates a violent short-covering bounce for the USD, potentially driving DXY back toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 99.30.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, December 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Gold (XAU/USD) Strategy: The Dual Bullish CatalystGold exhibits the potential for a rally regardless of the NFP outcome due to the unique policy environment. A strong Dollar traditionally controls Gold prices, while a weaker Dollar pushes them up. However, the current political and policy uncertainty provides two avenues for gains:Dovish Catalyst (Weak NFP): Weak employment figures lead to lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, diminishing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.Policy Error Catalyst (Strong NFP): If the data is surprisingly strong, it suggests the Fed may have cut rates "too far too fast". This shift in narrative from a controlled slowdown to policy error ignites fears of future inflationary acceleration. Gold then trades as an inflation hedge and an asset favored when confidence in financial assets or prudent policymaking declines, which could boost prices toward October’s record high. This structural bid under Gold suggests continuation toward resistance zones (e.g., 4380)Gold Four-Hour Chart, December 15, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In this short piece, we will dive into who will be the Federal Reserve Voters for 2026.It is extremely essential to keep an eye on what current and next-year voters are saying in their appearances, as their speeches and comments can trigger massive reactions in Markets and potentially open up trade opportunities.Naturally, traders should always keep an eye on the Fed Chair, who appears occasionally but also provides Market-moving testimonies twice a year, traditionally around the end of February and the end of June.There have been numerous examples of appearances from Fed Speakers which have changed the trajectory of markets and the pricing for the upcoming meeting.Some recent examples include Governor Waller through his pre-Jackson Hole mention of a dovish trajectory for the Fed towards the end of 2025, which preceded an even more dovish appearance from Chair Powell at the yearly Symposium.But even more pertinent is the recent speech from NY Fed President Williams, which helped to take the pricing of a 25 bps cut from 20% to 90%, leading to the actual cut from the past week.Permanent Voters zoom_out_map Permanent Fed Voters – December 15, 2025 In case you did not know, Board Members and the NY Fed President retain permanent voting seats for FOMC meetings.This was a crucial reason for President Trump to make sure that board members are tagging along with his dovish envies—especially with Chair Powell’s term ending in May 2026.Jerome Powell (Chair): The big question for 2026. Will he stay, or will Trump appoint a new Chair to aggressively slash rates?NY Fed's Williams: The Vice-Chair of the FOMC and the key "centrist" voice.The Board of Governors: This includes Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman Christopher WallerFed's Miran, replacing Adriana Kugler since her resigning, is part of the Board but serving a temporary mandate until further news – Fed Chair Powell may take his seat when his term finishes if he does not resign.Fed's Lisa Cook is still part of the Board. With her court case still pending, she cannot participate at FOMC Meetings.2026 Voters and their Hawkish/Dovish bias Four members will take the voting seat at the next FOMC meeting (January 28, 2026).The voters for 2026, essentially the Speakers to keep your eyes on are:Dallas Fed's Logan (very Hawkish)Cleveland Fed's Hammack (Neutral)Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari (Neutral but leaning more hawkish)Philly Fed's Paulson (Dovish)Keep in mind that biases also have an influence: when a dovish member makes a hawkish comment (or vice-versa), the impact tends to be much larger.2025 regional voters, will be less relevant for 2026:Collins, Goolsbee (both neutral)Musalem (Hawkish)Schmid (Most Hawkish)Who will be the Next appointed Fed Chair? zoom_out_map Who will be the next Fed Chair? December 15, 2025 – Source: Kalshi One of the major causes for Market anxiety has been who to appoint as the next Fed Chair.President Trump wants to see rates coming down, but also wants Stock Markets to stay confident.Kevin Hassett is not supported by Wall Street, so he might no be the President's choice.For that reason, odds for "the other Kevin" went up so much Kevin Warsh, a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011.He will surely be leaning dovish but also maintains some reputation with his past experience.The appointee for the Fed Chair will then have to get officially approved by the Senate after Trump's appointment.The decision should be taken by the end of January 2026.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Friday provided a sharp shift in post-FOMC flows. The strong rallies in Equities—particularly in defensive sectors—turned sour as Fed members began to voice concerns regarding their recent decision.The bounce in the Debasement Trade following the Fed meeting came as a surprise, especially given that the cut and projections were more defensive than aggressive. Indeed, making a dovish case for 2026 is proving difficult, with the recent Dot Plot indicating only 1 to 2 cuts for the coming year. zoom_out_map Dot Plot for 2026 – Source: CNBC Fed's Goolsbee, a dissenter of the recent cut (alongside Kansas Fed's Schmid), gave markets and risk assets a fresh reality check through multiple rounds of interviews. His stance is clear:The Fed was and still is in a "comfortable position to wait."The central bank is still blind on the inflation picture.Frontloading cuts now could carry significant risks.Consequently, stocks printed a local top and have struggled to rebound since. zoom_out_map US Main Indexes Daily Outlook – Double tops in S&P 500 and Nasdaq? December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView NY Fed President John Williams just issued a counter-narrative, warning that the labor market poses new risks while noting that inflation has eased—effectively mirroring Goolsbee's comments but from a different angle of concern.But dip-buyers haven't showed as much conviction this time around.As markets wiggle around in this conflicting narrative, all eyes are on tomorrow's NFP report (preview coming up soon).Let's dive into the intraday timeframe charts for all major US stock indexes to see where we stand. Read More:Markets Today: China Industrial Output at 15-Month Lows, Softbank Down 6%, Gold & Silver Hold High GroundFrom the FOMC to NFP and CPI – Markets Weekly OutlookMarkets Flash Red After Fed's Goolsbee: Was the Post-Cut Rally a Trap?A mixed picture across sectors – Typical pre-NFP trading zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:50 A.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – December 15, 2025 Dow Jones – Buyers are not following through zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The Dow Jones, bellwether of the post-FOMC bullish sentiment, has just rejected to its higher timeframe upward channel (formed since May 2025).Still evolving within the uptrend, the indication is more one of a slowdown in buyers' strength, for now, but things are still subject to change after tomorrow's release.Having formed a Head and Shoulders on its 4H RSI, momentum is facing a wall.Sellers have held prices at the past week lows throughout the entire morning session, so look at whether buyers manage to rebound from here.Failing to do so opens the door for sellers to take the short-term control.The hourly bull channel has its lower bound at around 47,850. Watch the reactions when and if prices get there.Dow Jones technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,400 to 48,886 (rejecting)48,700 session highsPotential Fib Target 2 49,52650,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target 3 (50,159)Support Levels50-period MA at 48,000Short-term Channel lows 47,850Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq – Higher timeframe warning zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq is sending scary signs for tech and AI bulls.After a solid rebound ahead of the FOMC, the index hasn't been able to show any form of strength since the cut, even forming a double-top/lower high with the past week's bullish impulse.The 25,000 level, acting as immediate support, will be one of its decisive support, supported by the 4H MA 200 for the bulls to maintain the mid-term bullish outlook.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMajor Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support LevelsSupport 25,000 to 25,250 (current lows, testing)24,500 Main support and Pivot (recent rebound)October and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 – A fragile range zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – December 15, 2025 – Source: TradingView The S&P is still holding the 6,800 to 6,900 range indicated in our latest Index analysis but is now testing its support.Holding 6,800 will be key for bulls to withhold their current strength, particularly as the higher timeframe is also sending signs of a double top – however not as scary as the one in Nasdaq.Keep a close eye on the psychological support.Closing above would maintain the rangebound/bullish picture.Closing below opens the door to some downside all the way to November lows around 6,600.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels6,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Resistance 6,850 to 6,880 (testing)ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological PivotSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (15/12/2025): Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they discuss the latest in central bank monetary policy, including the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, Friday's sell-off in US equities, the US dollar, and more. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.