ICYMI - Citi lifts Q3 Brent forecast to 80 dollars as Iran war drags onKosdaq circuit breaker triggered as Korean tech stocks surge. Kospi, Nikkei rise.RBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Recap - BOJ debated faster rate hike pace in July, summary showsChina's stockpiles are masking the true scale of the Hormuz shockPeople’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7884 (vs. estimate at 6.7379)BOJ July meeting Summary: Board split on pace of hikes as inflation nears 2pc targetGoldman Sachs stays bullish on stocks, expects oil to soften below 70 dollarsUBS flags near-term gold risks but holds firm on 5,000 dollar targetNetanyahu rejects Trump Gaza plan as US plays down the frictionPreview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026Oil has opened for the week's futures trade on Globex, up around 2% after a tense weekendThere are reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in Hormuz southern corridorGold hits seven week high as weak US jobs data cuts rate hike odds. What's next?Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demands as Houthis widen Red Sea blockadeTrump: "we are low keying it" as Strait of Hormuz deal driftsMonday open indicative forex prices, August 10, 2026I'm looking at Newmont stock (ticker NEM) and thinking ATHNewsquawk week ahead: RBA announcement and US retail salesChina's July CPI cools to six-month low as producer prices also easeSummary:Oil gapped higher Sunday evening as Hormuz shipping stayed at a trickle and Iran hardened its reopening conditionsIran's new demands largely repackage old terms, sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and a halt to military action amounting to a ceasefire and a return to the June MoUUAE reported an Iranian missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the strait, no casualties reportedHouthis struck a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan by drone, in retaliation for Saudi drones breaching Yemeni airspace, opening a genuine second front alongside HormuzNetanyahu rejected the US-backed 15-point Gaza plan even as Israel holds off on major Gaza operationsTrump is choosing economic squeeze over renewed strikes, a low-risk option that likely won't work but removes any near-term chance of a Hormuz dealBOJ opinions from July flagged rising inflation overshoot risk, with one member floating a faster than expected hike pace, boosting the case for a September moveYen softened slightly, other majors held tight ranges, and local stocks firmed on the back of Friday's soft US jobs report easing near-term Fed hike bets Oil prices opened with a gap higher on Sunday evening Globex trade as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a trickle and Iran appeared to harden its stance on the waterway's reopening.Iran issued bold new, though largely recycled, conditions for reopening the strait, including comprehensive sanctions relief, an end to the naval blockade, and a halt to military action, effectively a ceasefire and a return to the June memorandum of understanding. Oman-Iran talks continued in parallel. The UAE reported an Iranian missile strike on an ADNOC-linked vessel in the strait, with no casualties reported. Related tensions persisted, with Houthi activity, including reported attacks that warrant close watching, and Israeli operations touching Lebanon, Hezbollah and Gaza. Israeli PM Netanyahu rejected the US-backed 15-point Gaza plan focused on Hamas disarmament alongside an Israeli withdrawal.Trump told Axios he is letting economic pressure squeeze Iran rather than resuming strikes, citing inflation and a depleted treasury. Of Trump's options, this may be the least harmful in an impossible situation, no return to major combat, keeping the economic squeeze on and forcing the regime to deal with a deteriorating economy. It probably won't work, but it makes a virtue out of necessity. No deal on the strait looks possible for now.The second front continued to escalate. Yemen's Houthis said they struck a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan with a drone, with the group's spokesperson Yahya Saree saying on X that the attack was in response to Saudi drones breaching the airspace of Yemen's Sa'dah and Hajjah.The Bank of Japan flagged rising upside inflation risks, with one member pointing to a possible acceleration in the pace of rate hikes in a summary of opinions from its July meeting. Several members called for a nimbler, faster than expected pace of hikes, strengthening the case for a September move.The yen lost some ground, though the broader major FX pairs traded in small ranges. Local stocks firmed after Friday's soft jobs report eased expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike. Asian equities also caught a bid, with Korean chip heavyweights driving the Kospi to a roughly 0.8 percent gain, snapping seven straight weeks of declines, while the Kosdaq surged more than 5 percent and tripped a buy-side circuit breaker as short positioning unwound sharply. Japan's Nikkei rose around 2 percent on the same AI and chip led momentum out of Wall Street, though gains there were capped by the same Middle East uncertainty running through the rest of this wrap, underscoring how oil and geopolitical risk remain a persistent overhang on Japanese shares even on an otherwise strong day for the region. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a direct confirmation of the price path our own coverage has been pointing toward, with Citi effectively conceding its earlier timeline for a Hormuz resolution was too optimistic rather than abandoning the resolution thesis altogether. The 5 dollar upward revision to the Q3 number is modest relative to the scale of disruption we have been reporting, including the recent tanker strike in the US-backed southern corridor, which suggests Citi still sees the current elevated flows through the strait's southern lane as broadly sustainable rather than at serious risk of a full shutdown. The more revealing detail is that the unchanged 70 dollar Q4 forecast now rests on the same assumption that underpinned the bank's July call, more barrels getting through Hormuz, an assumption that looks shakier given the missile strike and Iran's continued insistence the strait remains a theatre of war until its conditions are met. If a Hormuz deal keeps slipping into Q4, Citi's 70 dollar number looks like the more vulnerable of its forecasts, and a further upward revision there would be the next signal to watch for confirmation that the market is pricing in a longer standoff rather than a near term resolution.--- Citi is finally admitting the Hormuz standoff has outlasted its own timeline, even as it keeps betting the war eventually resolves itself.Summary:Citi raised its Q3 Brent crude forecast to 80 dollars a barrel from 75, citing the drawn out US-Iran war and repeated failed attempts to restore Hormuz flowsThe bank left its Q4 Brent forecast unchanged at 70 dollars and its 2027 average unchanged at 65 dollarsCiti still expects the conflict to eventually be resolved, but said the five month war has lasted longer than it had anticipatedCiti's unchanged 70 dollar Q4 forecast now depends on the same assumption underpinning its July call, more barrels getting through HormuzThe revision comes amid continued tanker strikes and Iran's insistence the strait stays closed until its conditions are met in full Citi has raised its third quarter Brent crude forecast to 80 dollars a barrel from 75, according to Reuters, as the US-Iran war drags on and repeated attempts at a deal have failed to restore normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank still expects the conflict to eventually be resolved, but said the five month war has lasted longer than it had anticipated, keeping more geopolitical risk priced into crude than its earlier forecasts assumed.Citi left its fourth quarter Brent forecast unchanged at 70 dollars a barrel and continues to see the benchmark averaging 65 dollars in 2027. Analysts at the bank said the delay in reaching a resolution warranted a higher near term price assumption even as their longer term view of the conflict's eventual outcome remains unchanged. Citi's unchanged 70 dollar fourth quarter forecast now depends on largely the same assumption that underpinned its July call, that more barrels will manage to get through Hormuz as the situation progresses.The revision comes against a backdrop of escalating tension in the strait, including missile strikes on tankers and Iran's continued insistence that the waterway will remain closed until its list of conditions, covering sanctions relief, war compensation and a US withdrawal from the region, are met in full. Citi's relatively modest 5 dollar upward revision suggests the bank still views the bulk of current flows through Hormuz's southern corridor as broadly sustainable, rather than seeing the conflict as being on the verge of a fuller disruption to global supply.The forecast update leaves Citi's overall view intact, that oil prices should gradually normalize as the conflict is resolved and Hormuz traffic returns to something closer to pre war levels, even as the timeline for that outcome continues to be pushed further out than the bank originally expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a straightforward continuation of the theme we flagged in our gold piece, where the weak US payrolls print pushed traders to slash Fed hike bets, and that same repricing is now the clear driver behind the rally in Korean and Japanese chip stocks. The Kosdaq's circuit breaker trigger points to genuinely aggressive positioning rather than a modest relief bounce, which is consistent with a market that had been under pressure for seven straight weeks on the Kospi and was primed for a sharp reversal on any dovish catalyst. The Nikkei's gains being capped by Middle East uncertainty is the one note of caution here, and ties directly into the Hormuz standoff and tanker strike we have been covering, since Japan's economy remains more exposed than most to oil price swings given its import dependence. If the Fed repricing continues to dominate sentiment, Asian equities have room to keep grinding higher, but a fresh escalation out of the Gulf remains the more likely circuit breaker on the upside for Japanese shares specifically, even as Korean tech names trade more on the domestic AI and chip cycle than on oil.--- Korean and Japanese chip stocks are riding the same Fed repricing wave that lifted gold, though Middle East risk is keeping a lid on how far Japan's rally can run.Summary:South Korean and Japanese shares rose Monday, led by chipmakers, tracking Wall Street's rally after a weak US jobs report eased Fed rate hike worriesThe Kospi rose around 50 points, or roughly 0.8%, to around 6,300, snapping seven straight weeks of declinesThe Kosdaq surged more than 5%, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker around 9:50 a.m. local timeThe Nikkei rose around 2% to roughly 66,900, tracking Wall Street's AI and chip-linked gainsThe Topix edged up around 0.4% to roughly 4,090Middle East conflict uncertainty capped further gains on the Nikkei despite the broader rally South Korean and Japanese shares rose on Monday, led by chipmaker heavyweights, after Wall Street rallied on Friday as a weak US jobs report eased worries about further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The benchmark Kospi climbed around 50 points, or roughly 0.8 percent, to around 6,300, snapping seven consecutive weeks of declines. The Kosdaq surged more than 5 percent during the session, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker. According to the Korea Exchange, the Kosdaq's buy-side circuit breaker was activated at around 9:50 a.m. local time, a mechanism that kicks in when the Kosdaq 150 futures index rises 6 percent or more while the Kosdaq 150 spot index gains at least 3 percent versus the previous close, sustained for a full minute.In Japan, the Nikkei share average rose around 2 percent to roughly 66,900, tracking gains in AI and chip linked stocks on Wall Street, while the broader Topix edged up around 0.4 percent to roughly 4,090. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict capped further gains on the index. One market participant said gains in chip related stocks supported the Nikkei, with easing bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike the main driver behind the move.The rally across both markets follows the sharp shift in US rate expectations after Friday's payrolls miss, which we covered in our earlier piece on gold's rally to a seven week high, and reflects the same repricing now flowing through into regional risk appetite. Korean chip stocks in particular have been a key beneficiary of the broader AI trade, and the scale of Monday's Kosdaq move suggests positioning had built up heavily on the short side after weeks of declines. Japan's more muted, capped advance reflects the country's continued sensitivity to Middle East developments, with the Nikkei's gains checked even as the broader risk backdrop improved, underscoring how oil and geopolitical risk remain a persistent overhang on Japanese equities even during a broadly positive session for regional markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Major banks converging on a hold call. Westpac, like CBA earlier is looking for on hold tomorrow from the Reserve Bank of Australia, a strong signal for AUD stability around the August meeting. The softer Q2 CPI print has genuinely shifted the consensus. Westpac's framing that only the downside risks it had flagged actually materialised, and that energy cost pass-through from the Middle East conflict has not continued into recent months, lines up closely with CBA's own point that June's inflation data showed higher input costs were not broadly flowing through to consumers. Both banks expect the RBA to keep hawkish language even while holding, which should limit how much a hold alone moves AUD, with the more important signal being whether the Board's tone shifts materially dovish or stays cautious. The oil and energy angle is the one area where this cuts across our Iran war coverage, since a renewed spike in Middle East driven fuel costs would be the clearest way to revive the pass-through risk both banks currently see as contained, and would complicate the case for staying on hold much further into the year.--- Westpac and CBA are both calling a hold for August, and both point to the same signal, energy cost pass-through has quietly stopped.Summary:Westpac expects the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at its August meetingQ2 CPI came in below Westpac's forecasts on both headline and trimmed mean measures, with only the downside risks it had flagged materialisingWestpac says the earlier pass-through of higher Middle East driven energy costs has not continued into recent monthsWestpac expects the RBA to retain a hawkish posture while it assesses incoming data over coming monthsThe call aligns with CBA's own on-hold view, which cited slowing growth, softer inflation, faster labour market easing and weaker housingCBA's June inflation read similarly found higher input costs were not broadly passing through to consumers, reinforcing Westpac's assessment Westpac said it expects the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 percent at its August meeting, pointing to a softer than expected second quarter inflation print as the key reason the Board has room to hold. The bank's economists said Q2 CPI came in below their forecasts on both a headline and trimmed mean basis, adding that only the downside risks they had flagged in their preview ended up materialising.Westpac described the result as welcome news, noting that the substantial pass-through of higher energy costs seen in the early phase of the Middle East conflict has not been followed up by further pass-through in recent months. Even so, the bank expects the Board to retain a hawkish posture as it works through the coming months of data, arguing that if inflation continues behaving as expected, policymakers can gain confidence that price growth is returning to target under existing settings without needing to move rates further.The call echoes the view set out by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ahead of the same meeting, which also expects the RBA to hold in August and for the remainder of 2026, citing slowing growth, softer than forecast inflation, faster labour market easing and a weaker housing market. CBA's own read of the June inflation data found that higher input costs were not broadly flowing through to consumer prices, a conclusion that lines up closely with Westpac's assessment that Middle East driven energy cost pass-through has stalled. Both banks expect the RBA to keep flagging its willingness to hike again if conditions warrant it, even without an immediate case to tighten given the current data.With two of the major banks now aligned on a hold, attention is likely to shift toward the RBA's updated economic forecasts and the tone of Governor commentary at the meeting for signs of how much confidence the Board has gained that inflation is on a sustainable path back to target.The decision is due Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 2:30pm Sydney time (04:30 GMT, 12:30am US Eastern), with Governor Michele Bullock's press conference following an hour later at 3:30pm Sydney time (05:30 GMT, 1:30am US Eastern) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a genuinely useful lens for a Reuters columnist on the oil market beyond the headline Hormuz standoff we have been tracking, since it shows China acting as the shock absorber for roughly 5 million bpd of lost Middle East supply rather than that loss showing up as a broader Asian or global price spike. That matters for how much upside risk premium is really priced into crude right now, since China's roughly 1.2 billion barrel plus stockpile gives it room to keep suppressing import demand well beyond what most consumers could sustain, effectively masking some of the physical tightness the Hormuz closures would otherwise cause. The forward looking signal here is September, when Kpler's data suggests Middle East flows into China will tighten again as the ceasefire breakdown between Trump and Tehran, and the tanker strike we reported, take a few weeks to fully show up in shipping patterns. If China's stockpile drawdown slows or its buyers pivot hard toward non-Middle East barrels, that would tighten the marginal market and argue for firmer prices, whereas continued Chinese restraint would keep masking the true scale of the Hormuz disruption for longer than the headline conflict news alone would suggest.--- China's stockpiles are quietly doing the work of absorbing the Hormuz shock, and September's import data will show whether that can keep going.Summary:A Reuters analysis finds China has absorbed almost all of Asia's crude import decline caused by reduced Middle East shipments during the Iran warChina's July crude arrivals rose to 8.41 million bpd from June's near decade low of 7.12 million, but remained 24.3% below July last yearCombined June-July imports averaged 7.78 million bpd, 4.21 million bpd below the pre-war three month average of 11.99 million bpdMiddle East regional export flows remain down around 5 million bpd despite Saudi Arabia and the UAE boosting shipments from ports outside HormuzAsia's total oil imports fell to 22.82 million bpd in July, per Kpler, still roughly 4 million bpd below the pre-war averageChina's roughly 1.2 billion barrel-plus stockpile gives it room to sustain lower imports for an extended periodAugust imports are expected to recover modestly, but September is seen as the key test as Middle East flows tighten again following the ceasefire breakdown China is singlehandedly absorbing most of the hit to Asia's crude oil demand caused by reduced Middle East shipments during the Iran war, according to a Reuters analysis. The world's biggest oil importer took in 8.41 million barrels per day in July, up from June's near decade low of 7.12 million bpd but still 24.3 percent below the same month last year, the analysis found. Combined June and July imports averaged 7.78 million bpd, some 4.21 million bpd below the 11.99 million bpd average recorded in the three months before the conflict began.The United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, with the war escalating to the point that the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed, cutting off a waterway that had carried around 20 percent of the world's crude oil and refined products. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have managed to boost shipments from ports outside the strait, but the analysis found regional flows are still down around 5 million bpd. Since most Middle East crude exports head to Asia, the region's total oil imports fell to 22.82 million bpd in July, according to data from commodity analysts Kpler, still roughly 4 million bpd below the pre war average despite recovering from April's decade low. The analysis notes that Asia's overall import losses over the past two months are almost exactly matched by China's own import decline, indicating Beijing has effectively absorbed the regional shortfall on its own.Part of the pullback reflects China's well documented habit of cutting purchases when prices spike, with Brent crude hitting a four year high of 126.41 dollars a barrel on April 30, just as June and July cargoes were being arranged. But the Reuters analysis argues the scale of the reduction is unprecedented, made possible by China's crude stockpile, estimated at 1.2 billion barrels or more, which gives Beijing room to sustain lower imports for an extended period.The analysis expects a mild recovery in August as cargoes that exited the strait during a brief US Iran ceasefire are delivered, with Kpler estimating China's Middle East imports rising to 2.71 million bpd for the month. September imports are seen as more telling, since flows will tighten again following the ceasefire's collapse and the return of sharply reduced shipping through Hormuz, leaving Chinese refiners to keep drawing down stockpiles or seek barrels from outside the Middle East. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here.PBOC says it injected 18 bn yuan in 7-day reverse repos in Open Market Operations today. Rate remains 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This confirms and sharpens the hawkish reading from our earlier piece on the same Summary of Opinions, and the explicit tie to a September hike is the key upgrade here. A BOJ moving faster than markets currently price would tend to support the yen and lift JGB yields, and for AUD/JPY specifically that argues for the cross coming under pressure if the September move firms up as consensus. The Middle East linkage remains part of the inflation story rather than a standalone driver, with members flagging high fuel costs from the conflict alongside weak yen import costs and AI demand as the three forces pushing underlying inflation toward an overshoot. That keeps a Hormuz escalation, including the tanker strike we reported on, relevant to the BOJ path indirectly, since a fresh oil spike would only reinforce the hawkish case members are already making. For oil itself, this is a secondary read rather than a primary driver, but a more hawkish BOJ and firmer yen would be a mild headwind for yen denominated demand, a modest offsetting factor against the broader upside risks to prices coming from the Gulf.-Reuters take now.  BOJ board members are now openly arguing the case for a faster than expected hike, and it lines up squarely with Ueda's own hawkish signals since the July meeting.Summary:BOJ's July Summary of Opinions shows policymakers warning of mounting inflation overshoot risk that could require a faster than expected pace of rate hikesMembers cited weak yen import costs, strong AI-related demand, and high fuel costs from the Middle East conflict as combined drivers of inflation riskOne member said the pace of hikes could be faster than markets expect given the need for greater vigilance on overshoot riskAnother member said the risk of waiting is no longer marginal and called for the BOJ to accelerate the pace of policy adjustmentTwo more opinions called for nimbly raising rates toward a neutral policy levelThe opinions align with Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish post-meeting communication, which signalled a strong chance of a hike as soon as September Bank of Japan policymakers warned of mounting inflation risks at their July meeting that could require a nimble, faster than expected pace of interest rate increases, according to a summary of opinions released Monday, strengthening the case for a hike as soon as September. Many board members said the central bank must heighten vigilance to the risk of underlying inflation overshooting its 2 percent target, pointing to rising import costs from the weak yen, price pressures from strong AI related demand, and high fuel costs stemming from the Middle East conflict as the combined forces pushing prices higher.One member said in the summary that because the BOJ must now pay more attention than before to the risk of an inflation overshoot, the pace of rate hikes could end up faster than markets currently expect. Another member said the focus of monetary policy has shifted away from pushing underlying inflation up toward the 2 percent target and toward preventing it from overshooting that level, adding that the risk of waiting is no longer marginal and that the Bank must accelerate the pace of adjustment to its degree of monetary accommodation. Two further opinions called for nimbly raising interest rates to address inflation risks and move the policy rate closer to levels considered neutral for the economy.The opinions align with BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's hawkish communication following the July meeting, where the Bank held rates steady but signalled a strong chance of a hike as soon as September. The summary builds on the same meeting covered in our earlier piece on the BOJ's internal debate, adding sharper detail on how directly board members are now linking Middle East driven fuel costs to the broader inflation overshoot risk that is shaping the case for faster tightening.Markets will now look to upcoming inflation and wage data, along with any further signals from Ueda, to gauge how close the September move has become, with the summary suggesting the hawkish camp on the board has gained ground since the meeting itself. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The most tradeable signal here is the explicit view from at least one Board member that the pace of hikes could run faster than markets currently expect, which argues for a firmer yen and higher JGB yields if that camp gains the upper hand at the next meeting. The oil linkage cuts both ways for Japan specifically, since members noted crude and naphtha prices have already eased from their April peaks thanks to delayed tankers exiting the Persian Gulf, a temporary supply boost that could reverse and tighten conditions again if the Hormuz standoff worsens, which is consistent with the escalation we have been tracking in our Iran war coverage. A renewed spike in oil would push up Japanese import prices and inflation further, reinforcing the case for the hawkish camp on the Board. For AUD/JPY, a Bank of Japan that hikes faster than priced would tend to compress the yield differential and pressure the cross, while any fresh Middle East escalation that hits oil prices would cut in the opposite direction for AUD given Australia's own sensitivity to energy and risk sentiment. The Kumamoto earthquake response is a domestic fiscal consideration rather than a market moving factor at this stage.--- The BOJ's Board is openly debating whether to hold steady or hike faster than markets expect, with Middle East oil risk sitting right at the centre of the inflation outlook.Summary:BOJ's Summary of Opinions from the July 30-31 meeting shows a split between members wanting to hold rates to assess the last hike's impact and others pushing to continue or accelerate tighteningOne opinion suggested the pace of hikes could end up faster than current market pricing given rising upside risks to pricesJapan's economy is recovering moderately, with Middle East tensions weighing on activity and AI-related demand offsetting the drag, while yen weakness cuts both waysGrowth is expected to decelerate in fiscal 2026 on higher oil prices before picking up from fiscal 2027 as those effects fadeUnderlying CPI inflation is expected to reach a level broadly consistent with the 2 percent target between H2 fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027Crude oil and naphtha prices have eased from April peaks due to delayed tankers exiting the Persian Gulf, though members warned conditions could tighten again once that effect fadesConsumer price hikes are expected to accelerate again toward early autumn on higher distribution and packaging costsGovernment representatives said they expect the BOJ to pursue the 2 percent target while cooperating closely with the government, alongside the government's response to the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake The Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions from its July 30 and 31 policy meeting, released Monday, shows a Board split between members who want to hold the policy rate steady to assess the impact of the previous hike and others pushing for the pace of tightening to accelerate as underlying inflation approaches the 2 percent target. One opinion in the summary said it is appropriate to keep the policy rate unchanged given the roughly one to one and a half year lag before a hike's effects on inflation and activity become visible, while another argued conditions remain accommodative enough that the Bank should continue raising rates. A further opinion went further still, suggesting the pace of hikes could end up faster than markets currently expect given rising upside risks to prices.Members described Japan's economy as recovering moderately but facing crosscurrents, with the situation in the Middle East exerting downward pressure on activity even as expanding AI related demand provides an offsetting upswing, and yen depreciation cutting in both directions. Growth is expected to decelerate in fiscal 2026 as higher crude oil prices weigh on activity, before picking up again from fiscal 2027 as those effects wane. One member noted Japan has previously suffered sharp demand and inflation deceleration during major external shocks, but has so far shown resilience against both US tariff policy and the Middle East conflict.On prices, members said underlying CPI inflation is expected to reach a level broadly consistent with the price stability target between the second half of fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027, with the Middle East situation, AI demand and yen weakness all adding upward pressure. Crude oil and naphtha prices have eased from their April peaks partly due to delayed tankers exiting the Persian Gulf, though members cautioned that supply and demand conditions could tighten again once that temporary effect fades. Domestic distribution costs and packaging material prices are expected to drive a fresh acceleration in consumer price hikes toward early autumn, and several opinions described risks to the price outlook as significantly skewed to the upside given Japan's positive output gap and the potential for AI driven demand to add further pressure.Government representatives from the Ministry of Finance and Cabinet Office both said they expect the Bank to conduct policy appropriately toward the 2 percent target while closely cooperating with the government, and separately noted the government's priority of responding to the 2026 Kumamoto earthquake. ---As a ps note ...BOJ Summary of Opinions vs. Minutes: what's the differenceThe Bank of Japan publishes two separate accounts of each monetary policy meeting, and they serve very different purposes.The Summary of Opinions is the fast release. It comes out roughly one to two weeks after the meeting concludes and captures the range of individual views expressed by board members during the deliberations, presented as anonymised, attributed-to-no-one quotes or paraphrased positions. Think of it as the highlights reel: you get a sense of where the nine-member board's thinking clustered, where there was dissent or hesitation, and what conditions members were watching. It does not reveal who said what, and it is deliberately compressed. For markets, it is the first official window into the texture of internal debate, which is why it tends to move JPY and JGB yields on release.The Minutes are the deep read. They land roughly eight weeks after the meeting, well after the following meeting has already taken place. They provide a much fuller narrative of the discussion: the economic assessments the board considered, the arguments made for and against policy options, and the reasoning behind the final vote. Attribution remains collective rather than individual, but the level of procedural and analytical detail is substantially greater.In practical terms: traders and journalists lean on the Summary of Opinions for near-term signals because the Minutes arrive too late to be actionable for that meeting cycle. The Minutes matter more for understanding the board's evolving analytical framework and for building a picture of how thinking shifted between meetings. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Varadhan's oil call is the piece most worth flagging against our own coverage, since it sits in tension with the escalation we have just reported, including Iran's reported missile strike on a tanker in the US-backed southern corridor of Hormuz. His view that oil settles well below 70 dollars a barrel by year end rests on an assumption that a Strait of Hormuz deal is close, an assumption that looks considerably shakier after the latest strike and the IRGC's declaration that the strait is a theatre of war rather than a shipping route. If Goldman's base case holds and a deal does eventually land, the drop in energy prices he describes would also be disinflationary and supportive of his call for the Fed to stay on hold rather than hike, feeding into his broader constructive view on front end US yields and equities. But if the standoff hardens further, that whole chain reverses, energy prices firmer for longer, more persistent inflation pressure, and a harder case for a Fed hold. For now this reads as the more optimistic end of the Hormuz outcome spectrum rather than the base case implied by the latest tanker strike.--- Goldman's Varadhan is betting the Fed holds, oil drops well below 70 dollars, and stocks keep grinding higher into year end.Summary:Goldman Sachs co-head of global banking and markets Ashok Varadhan expects equities to keep grinding higher into year end after a volatile JulyHe said unwound AI trade leverage should support a higher quality rally rather than a repeat of last month's volatilityexpects the Fed to hold rates rather than deliver the hike currently priced in by markets, citing fading tariff inflation and a possible Hormuz dealremains broadly constructive on credit despite heavy hyperscaler debt issuance to fund AI investment is skeptical yen intervention will work long term, saying real stabilization requires Bank of Japan rate normalizationsingle best trade idea is oil settling well below 70 dollars a barrel later in the year, supporting front end US yieldsHis overarching advice remains to stay invested, consistent with his view from the fourth quarter of last year Goldman Sachs co-head of global banking and markets Ashok Varadhan said he expects equity markets to keep grinding higher into year end, arguing that a volatile July, marked by war re-escalation, Fed hike jitters and a sharp unwind in tech momentum, has largely worked through the market and left a cleaner setup going forward. Speaking on a Goldman markets podcast, Varadhan said much of the leverage built up in the AI trade has now been unwound, which he expects to support a higher quality rally rather than a repeat of last month's volatility.Varadhan said dispersion between single stock and index volatility is likely to remain elevated given how differently the AI theme affects companies depending on their position in the supply chain, even though he believes the most extreme readings have likely passed. On rates, he pushed back against market pricing for a Fed hike by year end, saying he expects the central bank to hold steady instead, pointing to fading tariff related inflation pressure and the prospect of a Strait of Hormuz deal as reasons price pressures should ease. He added that while AI infrastructure spending can strain resources and stoke inflation concerns in the near term, the completed build out should ultimately prove disinflationary.On credit, Varadhan said he remains broadly constructive despite heavy new issuance from hyperscalers financing AI investment, noting that any additional risk premium demanded by investors reflects supply rather than concern about the resilience of the underlying economy. On currencies, he said he is skeptical that yen intervention will succeed over the longer run, arguing that genuine stabilization requires the Bank of Japan to normalize interest rates properly rather than relying on intervention.Asked to package his views into a single trade, Varadhan pointed to energy, saying he expects oil to settle back down well below 70 dollars a barrel later in the year, a call he said makes him constructive on front end US yields and reinforces his broader view that markets can participate in both AI driven productivity gains and a resilient economy. His overarching advice was to stay invested, a repeat of the view he expressed on the same podcast in the fourth quarter of last year. He said the coming jobs report and further inflation readings are the key data points he is watching next. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This builds directly on the rally we flagged in our earlier gold piece, where a weak payrolls print pushed bullion to a seven week high, and UBS's note gives that move a structural rather than purely tactical framing. The bank's 5000 dollar target implies roughly 18 percent upside from the recent break above 4250 dollars an ounce, and its three pillars, falling real yields as the Fed eventually eases, dollar softness tied to US fiscal and external deficits, and steady central bank buying as a price floor, are all classic tailwinds that argue for gold outperforming through 2027 rather than just spiking on a single data surprise. The nearer term risk UBS flags is worth sitting with though, since firmer US data, rising oil prices reviving inflation concerns, or a more hawkish Fed path could all stall the move and even push prices back toward 4000 dollars, which UBS frames as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to fade the broader thesis. Given that oil price risk is currently elevated given the Hormuz standoff, that linkage between crude and gold's near term path is one worth watching closely alongside our Iran war coverage. UBS is sticking with its 5,000 dollar gold call, betting that falling yields and a softer dollar outweigh the near term risks from oil and a hawkish Fed.Summary:UBS expects gold to reach 5,000 dollars per ounce in the first half of 2027, implying roughly 18 percent upside from its recent break above 4250 dollarsattributes the latest rally to Chinese institutional buying, ETF inflows, and reduced Treasury sell-off risk after US-Japan efforts to stabilise the yenbullish case rests on three pillars: falling real yields as the Fed eases in 2027, dollar weakness tied to US fiscal deficits, and durable central bank demand warns firm US data, rising oil prices, or a more hawkish Fed path could delay the rally and push prices back toward 4000 dollarsframes near-term weakness as a buying opportunity rather than a threat to the medium to long term thesis UBS said in a note that it expects gold prices to climb to 5000 dollars per ounce in the first half of 2027, arguing the medium to long term case for the metal remains supported by several durable drivers even as near term risks persist.Analysts at the bank point to the bullion price recently clearing the 4000 to 4100 dollar range that had contained it and breaking above 4250 dollars for the first time since June.UBS attributed the latest push higher to Chinese institutional buying and continued exchange traded fund inflows, along with recent joint US and Japanese efforts to stabilise the yen, which the bank said had reduced the risk of a Treasury sell-off that would otherwise have pressured bullion through higher bond yields. The bank's 5000 dollar target implies roughly 18 percent upside from the recent break above 4250 dollars.The bullish case rests on three pillars, UBS said. The first is falling real yields, as the bank expects inflation to moderate gradually, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this year before resuming its easing cycle in 2027, a shift that would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no income. The second is dollar weakness, with UBS pointing to large US fiscal and external deficits and already elevated investor allocations to dollar assets as scope for renewed greenback softness. The third is central bank demand, which the bank described as a durable price floor that has continued supporting the market even during periods of weaker private investment demand.UBS was candid that the path to 5000 dollars will not be smooth, cautioning that firm US economic data, oil prices reviving inflation concerns, or markets pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path could all delay the rally. The bank suggested periods of weakness toward 4000 dollars or below could ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure rather than a reason to abandon the thesis. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

There is a more direct oil read here than a first glance suggests. Hamas is one of Iran's regional proxies, and a genuine collapse of the Gaza ceasefire would give Tehran a pretext to harden its posture across every front simultaneously, Hormuz included, at a moment when the IRGC has already declared the strait a theatre of war. Netanyahu's public rejection of Trump's plan, combined with Israel's continued restraint on the ground and Washington's relaxed reaction, points instead to a managed standoff rather than a real rupture, which is mildly supportive of keeping the Middle East risk premium in oil contained for now. The key variable to watch is whether Israel's troop pullback toward the Yellow Line and Hamas's disarmament actually proceed. Any stall or reversal there would be read as a second front opening alongside Hormuz, arguing for a firmer floor under prices, while continued progress would reinforce the case for the risk premium to keep easing.---Earlier:Reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in HormuzIran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demandsTrump: "we are low keying it"---Netanyahu is publicly rejecting Trump's Gaza plan while privately doing what Washington asked, and the US seems fine with the theatre as long as the restraint holds.Summary:Netanyahu told his cabinet he rejects Trump's 15-point Gaza plan and will not withdraw troops until Hamas is fully disarmedIsrael has scaled back attacks in Gaza since Monday, moving to only act against immediate threats rather than continued targeted strikesHamas says it remains committed to the roadmap agreed in Cairo and wants mediators to press Netanyahu not to obstruct itA senior US official told Axios the White House is not troubled by Netanyahu's rejection, viewing it as Israeli election politicsNetanyahu had privately told Trump envoy Jared Kushner he would give the plan a chance and curb attacks, and Israeli forces are pulling back toward the Yellow LineHamas's backing from Iran ties this directly to the wider US-Iran standoff already centred on the Strait of Hormuz Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu restated his rejection of President Trump's latest Gaza plan in televised remarks to his cabinet on Sunday, even as Israel's military has largely halted attacks in the territory under US pressure. Netanyahu said Israel would not withdraw troops until Hamas is fully disarmed, covering heavy and light weaponry alike, and is under domestic pressure ahead of an October 27 election, caught between far right ministers opposed to concessions and Trump, who is pushing his 15 point roadmap to end the war.Israel scaled back attacks in Gaza from Monday after Trump's Gaza envoy Nikolay Mladenov met with Netanyahu, with a source familiar with Israel's position saying the military would now only act against immediate threats rather than continue near daily targeted strikes. Hamas official Basem Naim told Reuters the group remains committed to the roadmap agreed in Cairo, and called on mediators and Washington to press Netanyahu not to obstruct the process for domestic political reasons. Far right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich backed Netanyahu's line, saying Israeli forces cannot withdraw from Gaza while Hamas remains armed.A senior US official told Axios the White House is not troubled by Netanyahu's public rejection of the plan, characterising it as part of Israel's election season, and said Washington has no issue with the rhetoric as long as Netanyahu keeps restraining attacks on Gaza as agreed. The official said Netanyahu had promised Trump envoy Jared Kushner he would give the plan a chance despite his scepticism, and that Israeli forces have since been gradually pulling back toward the so called Yellow Line while the US and mediators press Hamas to begin disarming.The episode carries added weight for the broader US-Iran standoff given Hamas's backing from Tehran, meaning any breakdown in the Gaza ceasefire process could feed directly into the wider regional conflict already centred on the Strait of Hormuz. Washington's relatively relaxed posture toward Netanyahu's comments suggests it currently sees this as manageable friction rather than a serious threat to the broader de-escalation effort.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A hold from the RBA with continued hawkish rhetoric is the base case CBA is pricing in, and that combination, no move but no dovish pivot either, suggests limited near term direction for AUD from the decision itself. The more market relevant signal is CBA's expectation that the RBA will revise its unemployment forecast higher and trim both headline and core inflation projections, since a genuine downgrade to the inflation track would be read as opening the door to easing later in the cycle even if the Board maintains a hiking bias in its language. The Middle East risk CBA flags, additional cost pass through in the third quarter if the conflict escalates further, is the wildcard that could force the RBA to lean more hawkish than the data alone would justify, and this ties directly into the same Hormuz dynamics covered in our Iran war pieces. For now, CBA's framing points to a central bank in wait and see mode, which typically keeps AUD rangebound around the meeting unless the updated forecasts or governor commentary surprise materially in either direction.The decision is due Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 2:30pm Sydney time (04:30 GMT, 12:30am US Eastern), with Governor Michele Bullock's press conference following an hour later at 3:30pm Sydney time (05:30 GMT, 1:30am US Eastern)---Earlier:Heads up RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% Tuesday--- CBA sees the RBA staying firmly on hold through 2026, but warns a Middle East escalation could still force its hand on inflation.Summary:CBA expects the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged in August and stay on hold for the remainder of 2026Growth is slowing as the RBA expected in May, but inflation is tracking below forecasts, the labour market has eased faster, and housing has deteriorated more than anticipatedflags a risk that renewed Middle East escalation could drive additional cost pass-through in Q3 2026 and reignite inflationexpects the RBA to maintain hawkish language, reiterating willingness to hike again if needed, even without an immediate case to tightenexpects the RBA's updated forecasts to show a higher unemployment rate and lower headline and trimmed mean inflation for the rest of 2026June inflation read found higher input costs were not broadly passing through to consumers, reinforcing its on-hold call Commonwealth Bank of Australia said Sunday that it expects the Reserve Bank to leave the cash rate unchanged at its August meeting and to remain on hold for the rest of 2026, arguing the combination of economic data since the RBA's May forecasts leaves little urgency for further tightening.The bank's economists said growth has slowed broadly in line with the RBA's May projections, while inflation has tracked below expectations, the labour market has eased a little faster than anticipated, and the housing market has deteriorated more than the central bank had forecast. Taken together, CBA said, those trends give the Board room to hold rather than move again so soon.Even so, CBA expects the RBA to keep its language firm, reiterating that inflation remains elevated and that it stands ready to raise the cash rate again if conditions warrant it. The bank pointed to a specific risk that could force the RBA's hand, a renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict, which it said could encourage businesses to pass through additional costs in the third quarter and reignite inflationary pressure. Despite that risk, CBA said current data and its own forecasts for the remainder of 2026 do not support tightening now, and it expects the RBA to use the meeting to assess the lagged effects of its earlier rate hikes rather than add to them.CBA also expects the RBA to publish updated economic forecasts alongside the decision, with the bank anticipating an upward revision to the unemployment rate given the labour market's recent trajectory, and downward revisions to both headline and trimmed mean inflation for the rest of the year.The bank's view builds on its reading of June's inflation data, which it said showed higher input costs were not broadly flowing through to consumer prices. CBA said at the time the result supported its call for the RBA to stay on hold through the rest of 2026, adding that the softer outcome offered some reassurance that price pressures were easing slightly faster than its own forecasts had anticipated. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Oil futures higher after a weekend of not much progress to end the war:Attacks:Reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in HormuzIran hot backing down:Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demandsTrump all at sea:Trump: "we are low keying it" This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This strike, if confirmed, lands directly on the southern lane that US officials had described as the one reliable channel still moving roughly 8 million barrels a day, and its loss or disruption would remove the main pressure valve that had been keeping the market calm despite the broader standoff. It also arrives just as the IRGC had declared the strait a theatre of war rather than a shipping route, and this action looks consistent with that posture rather than a one-off incident, arguing for a firmer near term price floor and a resumption of the risk premium that had been easing under Trump's low key framing. A strike specifically in the US-backed corridor raises the stakes further, since it targets the one arrangement Washington had been relying on to keep barrels flowing without a formal deal. Confirmation of the tanker's flag, cargo status and crew safety will be the next key data points for markets, alongside any US or allied response. --Earlier:Iran vows Hormuz stays shut until US meets demands as Houthis widen Red Sea blockadeTrump: "we are low keying it" as Strait of Hormuz deal drifts The Hormuz standoff looks like it just turned kinetic again, with Iranian missiles said to be setting a tanker ablaze in the one corridor Washington had been counting on to keep oil moving.Summary ... note, based on an unconfirmed (as yet) report:Iran fired multiple anti-ship cruise missiles from Sirik in southern Iran, striking an oil tanker off the coast of OmanThe strike hit the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz that the US has been backing to keep energy shipments flowingThe tanker is now on fire, per initial reportsThe strike follows Iran's weekend declaration that Hormuz stays closed until sanctions end and war compensation is paid, with the IRGC calling the strait a theatre of warIt also comes a day after Trump described his approach to Iran as low key, betting on economic pressure rather than renewed military actionDetails on the tanker's flag, cargo and crew condition remain unconfirmedReports that Iran has fired multiple anti-ship cruise missiles from Sirik in the country's south, striking an oil tanker off the coast of Oman in the southern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz that the United States has been backing to keep energy shipments moving. The tanker is now on fire, according to initial reports, in what marks a sharp escalation in a standoff that had, until now, been largely contained to rhetoric and stalled negotiations.The strike follows days of hardening positions from Tehran. As covered in our earlier piece on Iran's warnings, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had declared over the weekend that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until Washington met a list of conditions, including an end to sanctions and compensation for war damage, describing the waterway as a theatre of war rather than simply a shipping route. That statement came alongside reports that traffic through the strait had already dropped significantly, with at least one tanker struck on Saturday.The southern corridor now hit is the same route US officials had pointed to as evidence that oil, roughly 8 million barrels a day, was continuing to move out of the Gulf in informal coordination with the US military, even without a signed agreement covering the strait's administration. As detailed in our earlier piece on President Trump's approach, he had described his posture toward Iran as low key just a day earlier, saying he was content to let economic pressure and Iran's inflation crisis do the work rather than resuming major combat operations. This latest strike will test that posture directly, since it targets the one channel Washington had been relying on to avoid a full closure of the strait.Details remain limited at this stage, including the tanker's flag, cargo and the condition of its crew. Markets are likely to treat the strike as a material escalation given its location in the corridor the US had specifically backed, and further updates on the vessel's status, any casualties, and Washington's response are expected to follow as the situation develops. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The scale of the payrolls miss, a 23,000 decline against a forecast 80,000 gain, is the clearest signal yet that the Fed has more room to hold or cut than markets had priced. With rate futures now showing roughly 45 percent odds of a September hike, down from 57 percent before the release, the dollar is likely to stay under pressure and real yields softer, both supportive for bullion. Gold's move above 4360 dollars an ounce and its best weekly gain since January points to fresh momentum rather than a one-off spike, particularly with one major bank flagging a path toward 5000 dollars by the first half of 2027. The risk to this view is a hawkish reassertion from the Fed if upcoming inflation data surprises higher, which would temper the dollar weakness this rally depends on. For AUD, a softer US dollar and firmer gold are typically supportive, though the read-through is partial given gold's move is being driven more by US rate repricing than by broader risk appetite.investingLive Americas market news wrap: Non-farm payrolls turn negative, dollar drops A shock US payrolls contraction has traders slashing rate hike bets and sending gold to its best week in seven months.Summary:Spot gold jumped above 4360 dollars an ounce on Friday, its highest since June 17 and up more than 3 percent on the dayIts largest weekly rise since January 19, gaining more than 7 percent over the weekUS nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, versus a downwardly revised 20,000 gain in June and forecasts for an 80,000 increaseRate futures now price roughly a 45 percent chance of a September Fed hike, down from 57 percent before the report, with hold odds rising to 56 percent from 43 percentDeclining energy prices and reduced rate hike odds are together weighing on the dollar and supporting goldOne major global bank said it expects gold to reach 5000 dollars an ounce in the first half of 2027 Gold surged to a seven week high on Friday after a surprise drop in US nonfarm payrolls for July dashed hopes of a September interest rate hike, setting bullion on course for its best week in seven months. Spot gold jumped above 4360 dollars per ounce, up more than 3 percent on the day and its highest level since June 17.The US labor department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, a sharp reversal from a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June and far below the 80,000 gain economists polled by Reuters had expected. The miss immediately reshaped rate expectations, with one analyst noting the weaker than forecast data makes the Federal Reserve less likely to raise rates at its next meeting.Declining energy prices alongside the reduced likelihood of a near term rate increase are together pointing toward a weaker dollar and firmer gold prices, a combination that has underpinned bullion's rally over the past week. Rate futures now price in roughly a 45 percent chance of Fed tightening in September, down from 57 percent before the jobs report, while the probability the Fed holds rates steady next month climbed to 56 percent from 43 percent beforehand. Because gold generates no yield of its own, lower interest rates make it comparatively more attractive against yield bearing assets such as bonds.Bullion's advance last week, more than 7 percent, was its largest weekly rise since January 19, underscoring how quickly sentiment has shifted on the back of softening US labor data. One major global bank said in a note on Friday that it expects gold prices to climb as high as 5000 dollars per ounce in the first half of 2027, citing the same dynamic of a softer dollar and lower real yields drawing investors toward the metal. With the September Fed decision now firmly in focus, upcoming inflation and employment releases are likely to be the next major test of whether this rally has further room to run. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This hardens the more bearish read from our earlier piece on Trump's low key posture. The IRGC's insistence that Hormuz stays a theatre of war until sanctions are lifted and compensation is paid suggests the Vahidi camp, not Pezeshkian's, is currently setting the terms, and that argues for a firmer near term price floor rather than the fade Trump's reassuring tone implied. Reduced tanker traffic through the strait and Saturday's tanker strike add a live supply disruption on top of the political standoff. The Houthi blockade on Saudi Red Sea ports is a genuine confounding factor, opening a second front that could squeeze Saudi export flexibility just as Hormuz remains constrained, reinforcing upside price risk rather than offsetting it. Countering that, Oman's confirmation that strait management talks are in their final stages and Araghchi's softer framing of ongoing message exchanges leave room for de-escalation if a deal lands. For AUD, the balance tips slightly more defensive than in our prior note given the added Red Sea risk, though a Hormuz breakthrough would still be the more powerful driver either way.---Earlier:Trump: "we are low keying it" as Strait of Hormuz deal drifts- Tehran is hardening its terms just as Trump plays it cool, and a reminder that the Houthis have a second maritime front against Saudi Arabia to go with it.Summary:Iran's Revolutionary Guards say the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the US meets a list of demands, including ending sanctions and paying war compensationIran's Supreme National Security Council conditions also include ending the war on all fronts, lifting the US counterblockade on Iranian ports, and releasing frozen assets, echoing June's proposed 300 billion dollar reconstruction fundIran wants to retain control of the strait post war and charge tolls for passage, and has struck vessels attempting to bypass its route, including a tanker hit SaturdayTrump described his approach as low key and semi-negotiating, betting Iran's inflation and empty coffers will force a resolutionIranian FM Araghchi said Tehran is only exchanging messages with Washington via intermediaries, while Oman said strait management talks are nearing their final stagesHouthi rebels in Yemen opened a blockade on Saudi Red Sea ports, struck a Saudi oil facility, and hit Mokha port, killing 11 and wounding 32Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan on Friday, with Turkey expecting Egypt to also join Iran's Revolutionary Guards said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed until the United States meets a list of demands, including an end to sanctions and compensation for war damage, hardening Tehran's position even as President Trump described his approach to the standoff as low key (see linked piece above, an Axios interview). The blockade of the crucial energy corridor has rattled allies, unsettled markets and pushed up prices, according to AFP, with the IRGC declaring the strait "a theatre of war" rather than simply a shipping route until its conditions are accepted in full.Iran's Supreme National Security Council laid out the conditions on Saturday, including an end to the war on all fronts, the lifting of a US counterblockade on Iranian ports, the release of frozen assets and full compensation for wartime damage. The terms largely echo the June agreement, which had included a proposed 300 billion dollar reconstruction fund for Iran. Tehran also wants to retain control of the strait after the war and to charge tolls for passage, and has repeatedly struck vessels it accuses of trying to bypass its preferred route, with at least one tanker hit on Saturday.Trump, in the same Axios interview referenced in our earlier piece, said he was only semi-negotiating with Tehran and was content to let Iran's inflation and depleted finances do the work, calling the standoff a chess game that would eventually work out. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi struck a more measured tone, saying Tehran was merely exchanging messages with Washington through intermediaries, while Oman said talks on managing the strait were approaching their final stages.Adding a further complication, Iran's Houthi allies in Yemen have a parallel blockade against Saudi ports in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia's only other major maritime export route. The Houthis said they struck a Saudi oil facility on the Red Sea coast on Sunday, and separate strikes on the port city of Mokha killed three civilians and eight military personnel and wounded 32 people. The dual pressure on Gulf shipping comes days after Saudi Arabia signed a joint defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan, with Ankara saying it expects Egypt to also join the arrangement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Newmont stock prediction: NEM bull flag could open a path to new all-time highs, but patience mattersNewmont stock has suddenly become one of the more interesting large-cap mining charts I am watching.NEM closed Friday at $112.98 after gaining more than 20% on the weekly candle, following an aggressive reversal from the lower boundary of a descending channel that has contained the stock since its early-2026 peak.My read is bullish, but with an important qualification: the potential weekly bull flag has not broken out yet.If Newmont can eventually clear and hold above roughly $118-$120, the technical picture changes substantially. That could put $124-$126 back in play first, followed by a challenge of the $131-$135 all-time-high area.Patience matters here. After such a powerful weekly candle, I am more interested in whether bulls can complete the pattern than in chasing the first burst higher.There is also a fundamental reason to pay attention. Newmont's latest earnings showed a company generating enormous cash flow from high gold prices, returning capital aggressively to shareholders and maintaining its 2026 production guidance despite an operational disruption at Cadia. At the same time, costs are rising and management expects some of that pressure to persist into the third quarter. Key takeaways for Newmont stock investors and tradersWeekly NEM trend: Constructive after an aggressive rebound from the lower boundary of the descending channel. Potential pattern: A large weekly bull flag following the powerful 2025 to early-2026 advance. Main breakout zone: Approximately $118-$120. First upside area after confirmation: Approximately $124-$126. Major objective: The $131-$135 prior-high and all-time-high region. Earnings surprise: Q2 adjusted EPS beat expectations, although revenue came in below consensus. Cash generation: Newmont produced $2.2 billion of Q2 free cash flow, a record for a second quarter. Important risk: Q2 AISC jumped to $1,621 per ounce, and management expects unit costs to increase again in Q3. Macro catalysts: Gold prices, US CPI, interest-rate expectations, China gold demand, oil prices and Middle East developments all matter for NEM. What makes the NEM weekly chart so interesting?Look at the chart from a distance. The weekly chart of NEM for this stock analysis:Newmont rose dramatically from roughly $55 in mid-2025 to around $135 in early 2026. Since then, however, the stock has not simply collapsed. It has spent months working lower inside a relatively orderly downward-sloping channel.That distinction matters.A downward channel following a powerful advance can sometimes develop into a bull flag, where a market digests earlier gains before attempting another leg higher.But simply drawing two parallel lines does not make something a bull flag. Buyers ultimately have to prove the thesis by breaking through the upper boundary.What caught my attention this week is where the latest buying appeared.NEM traded down to $92.97, very close to the lower portion of the channel, and then reversed sharply to finish the week at $112.98.The bulls did not buy somewhere randomly in the middle of the pattern.They became extremely aggressive near the lower pane of the channel.That is exactly where I would want to see strong demand if this larger bullish structure is going to survive.Now comes the harder part.What level could activate the Newmont weekly bull flag?The upper boundary of the descending structure currently comes into the vicinity of approximately $118-$120.That makes this the most important area on my NEM chart.I would not call the bull flag activated merely because NEM approaches $118 or briefly trades through it. The cleaner signal would be a convincing breakout, followed ideally by evidence that the former resistance area can hold.What this means: A bull flag breakout becomes more credible when price gets above the descending resistance line and stays there, rather than briefly poking above it before falling back inside the channel.That distinction may prove especially important after this week's very large candle.NEM has already travelled a long way in a short period. There is no requirement for the stock to break out immediately.Some consolidation underneath resistance could actually be constructive.For traders, this is an important lesson: a bullish chart does not automatically mean a good price to chase.The market can have an attractive destination and still offer a poor short-term entry.Newmont stock price levels to watchThe bullish scenario becomes much more interesting above $118-$120. But until the breakout actually occurs, the stock remains inside the channel.Newmont's Q2 earnings contained an important surpriseThere is another reason I would not look at the NEM chart in isolation.The latest earnings were better than the headline revenue number might suggest.Newmont reported adjusted EPS of $2.10. Reuters reported that the average LSEG estimate was $1.99, meaning profitability exceeded expectations. Zacks used a somewhat higher EPS consensus of $2.05, but also recorded the result as a beat. At the same time, revenue of approximately $6.12 billion came in below consensus estimates around $6.35 billion. That makes Q2 a useful investor-education case.An earnings report does not have to be either "beat" or "miss."Different parts of the report can tell different stories: Revenue can disappoint. Earnings can beat. Production can decline. Costs can increase. Cash flow can remain exceptionally strong. Guidance can remain intact. That is almost exactly what happened here.For investors, the lesson is to go one level deeper than the headline EPS number.The more impressive surprise may have been Newmont's cash flowNewmont generated $2.9 billion of operating cash flow and $2.2 billion of free cash flow in Q2. The company described that as record second-quarter free cash flow. There is an interesting wrinkle.Free cash flow actually fell from $3.14 billion in Q1 to $2.21 billion in Q2, a decline of roughly 30%. Yet Q2 free cash flow was still well above the $1.71 billion generated in the comparable 2025 quarter. That teaches another useful lesson:Sequential deterioration and absolute weakness are not the same thing.Q1 was extraordinarily strong. A decline from an exceptional quarter does not automatically make Q2 poor.For longer-term shareholders, free cash flow matters because it is ultimately what gives a miner the capacity to reduce debt, build cash, repurchase stock, pay dividends and fund new projects.And Newmont is doing several of those things simultaneously.Newmont is shrinking its share count, and that mattersSince its previous earnings call, Newmont said it had repurchased $1.7 billion of stock, with another $4.3 billion remaining under its existing $6 billion authorization.More importantly, since February 2024, Newmont says it has reduced its share count by more than 100 million shares, or approximately 9%. This is not merely a cosmetic financial-engineering statistic.Imagine a company generates the same $10 billion of future cash flow but has 9% fewer shares among which that cash flow must be divided. All else equal, each remaining share represents a larger claim on the business.The same principle applies to earnings per share and potentially dividends per share.Newmont explicitly connects its buyback program with the possibility of growing dividends per share over time while maintaining a disciplined overall capital-return framework. There is an important caveat: buybacks create the most value when management repurchases shares at sensible prices. Reducing the share count is not automatically accretive if a company massively overpays for its own stock.Still, a falling share count backed by genuine free cash flow is generally more meaningful than buybacks financed by increasing debt.Newmont ended Q2 with $9 billion of cash, $13 billion of liquidity and a $3.4 billion net cash position. But Newmont's costs provide an important warningThis is where the fundamental picture becomes more nuanced.Newmont's gold by-product all-in sustaining cost, or AISC, increased 58% from Q1 to $1,621 per ounce.The increase reflected higher sustaining capital and additional costs related partly to the Cadia downtime following seismic events. Gold CAS per ounce also rose sharply. What is AISC? All-in sustaining cost is a commonly used mining metric designed to capture not only the direct cost of producing gold but also much of the ongoing capital required to keep the operation producing.This is why investors should not look only at gold prices.A gold miner benefits when gold rises, but the size of that benefit depends on what happens to wages, diesel, equipment, royalties, grades, sustaining capital and production volumes at the same time.Still, context matters.Despite Q2 AISC of $1,621, Newmont's year-to-date by-product AISC was $1,321, while its full-year guidance remains approximately $1,680 per ounce. So the Q2 cost spike is a genuine issue to monitor, but it does not currently amount to a guidance failure.Cadia may be the most important operational detailCadia was hit by seismic events during the quarter.Newmont's attributable Cadia gold production dropped sharply, and total copper production fell 43% from the previous quarter, with Cadia a major contributor to that decline.Yet operations returned to normal levels by mid-June. More broadly, Newmont said first-half gold production was actually slightly above its expectations, and the company maintained its full-year production target of approximately 5.26 million attributable ounces. That combination is constructive.The company suffered a material operational disruption, recovered the asset and still did not need to reduce its annual production outlook.For an investor, that can matter more than whether one individual quarterly production number looked weak.One number shows why gold matters so much to NEMNewmont provides investors with an unusually useful sensitivity table.Under its 2026 assumptions, a $100-per-ounce change in gold corresponds to approximately a $505 million pre-tax revenue and cost impact.By comparison, a $10-per-barrel move in Brent crude produces an estimated impact of about $60 million. Those numbers help explain something important about gold mining stocks.NEM is not gold, but it has operating leverage to gold.When gold rises, the additional price received can flow through a relatively fixed operating infrastructure. This can allow profits and free cash flow to grow faster than the percentage move in gold itself.But leverage works both ways.If gold falls materially while mining costs remain elevated, profitability can contract much faster than the gold price decline alone would suggest.This is why investors sometimes see gold fall 3% while a miner falls 8% or 10%.The equity contains additional layers of operating, financial and execution risk.The $4,414 realized gold price helps explain the cash generationNewmont realized an average gold price of $4,414 per ounce during Q2.That was actually $486 below Q1's $4,900 realized price, yet dramatically above the $3,320 realized one year earlier. Compare that $4,414 realized price with Q2 by-product AISC of $1,621.The rough difference is close to $2,800 per ounce.That is not an accounting profit margin, and investors should not treat it as one. Taxes, corporate expenses, project spending, financing, reclamation and many other items still matter.But it illustrates why Newmont can generate huge amounts of cash when gold remains at historically elevated prices.Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to Newmont in more than one wayThis brings us back to the macro environment.Recent progress involving Iran, Oman and commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could reduce part of the geopolitical premium embedded in oil and gold. See investingLive's report: US official says there is progress on Iran, Oman and the Strait of Hormuz.At first glance, de-escalation sounds bearish for gold because it can reduce safe-haven demand.For Newmont, however, there is another side to the equation.Oil is an important mining input.Newmont itself estimates that a $10 move in Brent can produce roughly a $60 million revenue-and-cost impact, and management specifically warned that higher oil prices could pressure third-quarter unit costs. So Middle East de-escalation can potentially create two opposing forces:Lower geopolitical fear could weigh on gold.Lower oil prices could reduce part of Newmont's cost pressure.That is a much more useful way for NEM investors to think about the Hormuz story than simply assuming "Middle East tensions up equals gold miners up."US CPI may matter to NEM almost as much as company newsThe next important link in the chain is inflation.Gold remains highly sensitive to US interest-rate expectations and real yields. A softer inflation environment can make future rate cuts more plausible, while hotter inflation can push yields and the dollar higher and create pressure on gold.That is why the investingLive analysis Gold stays supported amid Middle East de-escalation, but the US CPI could erase the gains is relevant not just to gold traders, but to NEM shareholders as well.A gold miner sits several steps down the transmission chain:CPI → interest-rate expectations → yields and dollar → gold → miner margins → NEM earnings and cash flow.Understanding that chain can help investors distinguish between short-lived moves in the stock and changes that genuinely affect the underlying earnings outlook.China's gold accumulation supports the longer-term thesisThere is also a slower-moving force beneath the market.China's official gold reserves continued to rise in July, extending the reported buying streak to a 21st consecutive month, as discussed in investingLive's China gold buying spree continues in July.Central-bank buying does not tell us whether gold rises tomorrow.But persistent sovereign demand matters because it can help support the longer-term gold regime in which companies such as Newmont operate.For NEM investors, that structural backdrop is more important than trying to predict the next $20 move in bullion.There is one more reason not to chase the NEM rallyNewmont's own guidance suggests the next quarter may not look as clean as investors might expect from the current stock momentum.The company expects Q3 production to remain broadly similar to Q2. At the same time, unit costs are expected to rise as sustaining capital spending increases.The second half is expected to contain 58% of 2026 sustaining capital spending and 63% of development capital spending, while production is expected to be weighted only modestly toward H2 at 51%. That creates an interesting setup:The longer-term fundamental story can remain bullish even while near-term quarterly cost comparisons become less attractive.This is exactly why a stock can have an attractive long-term target but still experience sharp pullbacks on the way there.It reinforces the same message coming from the weekly chart: patience.What would weaken the bullish NEM stock thesis?A pullback toward $105-$107 would not necessarily destroy the setup after such a large weekly advance.That area could simply become the first test of whether buyers remain willing to defend higher prices.A deeper move toward $98-$100 would make the chart less comfortable.The most important deterioration would be a return toward and eventually through the recent $91-$94 reversal area.If NEM falls through the lower portion of this channel instead of eventually breaking the upper boundary, the bull-flag interpretation would need to be reconsidered.Fundamentally, I would also watch for three developments: A material deterioration in gold prices. Further cost inflation that threatens the full-year AISC outlook. Operational problems that force Newmont to reduce its approximately 5.26 million-ounce production guidance. None of those is currently the base case communicated by management. Could Newmont stock make a new all-time high?Yes, I think that scenario deserves serious attention, but the chart still needs confirmation.The fundamental picture is arguably stronger than the price chart alone reveals.Newmont beat profit expectations in Q2 despite lower production, generated another $2.2 billion of free cash flow, maintained full-year production guidance after the Cadia disruption, carries net cash and continues shrinking its share count aggressively. At the same time, higher costs and heavier second-half capital spending give investors good reasons not to treat the thesis as automatic.Technically, the bulls have already accomplished something important by buying aggressively at the bottom of the weekly channel.Now they need to finish the job.A sustained breakout through approximately $118-$120 would make $124-$126 the next area of interest and would bring the $131-$135 all-time-high zone much more clearly into play.And if NEM eventually clears that region with convincing weekly acceptance, we would no longer be discussing a recovery toward the old high.We would be discussing price discovery.For now, though, I think the right word remains patience.The lower boundary has done its job.Now let's see whether the upper boundary finally gives way. Remember, always do your own research and invest at your own risk only. Have a good week. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Trump's optimistic framing, pointing to sub-80 dollar oil and easing consumer pain, reads as an attempt to project reassurance rather than a clear signal that risk has actually receded. The more telling variable for price is the internal Iranian power struggle rather than anything coming out of Washington. If the Pezeshkian camp gains ground and a Strait of Hormuz deal is eventually signed, the path is toward softer prices and a lower geopolitical risk premium. But if the IRGC hardliners under Vahidi hold sway and the stalemate drags on or hardens into fresh confrontation, prices skew firmer given the volumes still moving through the strait under informal, revocable arrangements rather than a settled agreement. Trump is choosing to wait Iran out economically rather than pull the trigger again, even as Tehran raises the price of reopening the strait and its own leadership splits over what to do next.Summary:Trump told Axios he is prepared to let economic pressure build on Iran rather than order a return to major combat operationsHe described Iran as in very bad shape economically, unable to pay its troops, with the naval blockade worsening the crisisTrump noted oil near 75 dollars a barrel is easing pain for US consumersA Strait of Hormuz traffic deal between Iran, Oman and the US has stalled after appearing close to announcementIran's Supreme National Security Council added new conditions for reopening the strait, including an end to US threats, a permanent end to hostilities against Iran and its allies, and lifting the blockadeUS officials point to a widening split inside Tehran between President Pezeshkian's camp, which wants a deal, and IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi's camp, which rejects concessionsRoughly 8 million barrels a day continue moving through the strait's southern lane in coordination with the US military President Trump indicated on Sunday that he is willing to let economic pressure on Iran continue building rather than order a fresh round of military strikes, even as Tehran continues to defy Washington's demands. The comments, made in a brief interview with Axios, mark a notable shift from just a week earlier, when Trump was reportedly close to ordering a return to major combat operations.Trump framed the standoff as a waiting game. He said Iran is in very bad shape economically, unable to pay its own troops, and that the US naval blockade has deepened that crisis. With oil trading just above 75 dollars a barrel, he added that American consumers are feeling less pain from the conflict, reducing the urgency to escalate. Asked about the standoff, Trump likened it to a long running contest that will eventually resolve in Washington's favour.The remarks came as a US brokered agreement covering shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, negotiated among Iran, Oman and the US, appeared to stall after mediators had expected an announcement earlier in the week. Iran's Supreme National Security Council instead issued a fresh list of conditions on Saturday, including a demand that the US never threaten or insult Iran, a permanent end to hostilities against Iran and its regional allies, and a full withdrawal of naval forces from the area, alongside calls for war compensation and sanctions relief.US officials say the new demands reflect a widening rift inside the Iranian regime, with President Masoud Pezeshkian's camp pushing for a deal to avert economic collapse while IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi's faction resists any concessions. Despite the impasse, roughly 8 million barrels a day are still moving through the strait's southern lane under informal coordination with the US military, a flow Washington is looking to expand in the absence of a formal agreement. Vice President Vance described the standoff as still in its middle stages, with diplomatic, economic and military tools all in play as the administration weighs its next move. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

In main Asian centre markets its just before:5am in Tokyo4am in Singapore and Hong Kong6am in Australia and 8am in New ZealandEarly indications show a slightly firmer USD from late Friday:EUR/USD 1.1554USD/JPY 157.79GBP/USD 1.3487USD/CHF 0.8088USD/CAD 1.3961AUD/USD 0.7060NZD/USD 0.5879I'll be back with weekend news soon.From China over the weekend:China's July CPI cools to six-month low as producer prices also ease This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.