Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 22 Current Market flows are very tough to predict and erratic as fundamentals keep changing and geopolitical volatility is at its peak.The Greenland situation has largely abated but questions remain, Stock markets are trading as if nothing ever happened around the globe and Commodities are sharing their most helter-skelter sessions – Metals are trading to new highs once again while Energy products got slammed after this morning's EIA Report.A quick bubble pop actually took Natural Gas prices from $5.69 highs this morning to the current $5.10 close (on its CFD), a quick 9% drop. zoom_out_map Natural Gas (ETF) 15M Chart – January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Discover: Natural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next? Oil also took a beating from much higher-than-expected inventories and somewhat calming fundamentals – the rhetoric regarding Iran is still quite passive-aggressive. However, it is tough to predict whether anything will happen, as the Trump Admin still seems to be weighing the risks and rewards of an intervention. Access to Internet was brought back but is severely controlled, while the Iranian population still suffers.A wise trader once told me that when things go all around, and flows get chaotic, focus on whatever makes the most sense. In this direction, it seems that the traders gravitated towards the Australian Dollar.After yesterday's Labor data, the Aussie started a relentless run higher, further boosted by weakness in the US Dollar.As the January 28 FOMC meeting isn't expected to provide much change in interest rates, Currency traders will question a potential RBA Hike, with any such move swiftly priced in – the rate decision is on February 3. Discover:AUD/USD explodes above August 2024 highs – Australian Dollar OutlookGreenland tensions ease, but forecasts for Gold are still very optimisticUS GDP beats and Monday gaps fill – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 22, 2026 Stocks printed some decent charts in the past few sessions as Trade-related tensions have abated – Still, bulls will have to actually push above Indexes' all-time highs to regain a fully bullish path.The answer to ongoing Market confusion could be found on next Wednesday, after the FOMC session and high-importance Mag 7 Earnings!Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView It's tough to reason with today's Market movement, but it's at least good that there is some up-and-down volatility which allows quick entries and profit-taking for Traders.The geopolitical picture is still very confusing so it seems that traders are already backing away from the uncertainty, profit-taking on short-term movements.Keep an eye on Metals which are breaking out further and watch for weekend risk volatile action.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 22, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's session was largely marked by the continued upside in Antipodean currencies – the Aussie is leading FX Currencies as it breaks yearly highs against the US Dollar, once again tied loser with the Japanese Yen.Yen sellers could see a quick test of strength in this evening and tomorrow's action, as the world will keep their eyes wide open for the Bank of Japan's Rate Decision tonight.This one could be Market breaking – A hike is almost a certainty, but the question on Japan's Fiscal Policy craziness remains, let's see what the BOJ says.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 22, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com Tomorrow's earning session should be calmer, but expect more volatile earnings next week.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Thursday’s session is front-loaded with Asia-Pacific inflation and activity data. New Zealand CPI gets released in a few minutes, followed by Australia’s flash PMIs, setting the tone for regional growth expectations. Attention then turns squarely to Japan in the evening, with national CPI prints ahead of the BoJ rate decision, policy statement and outlook report — a key risk event not only for the JPY but for the rest of the Market, heavily profiting from the current run on the Nippon currency.Friday keeps momentum high across Europe and North America. The UK releases December retail sales before a dense run of flash PMIs from the euro area and the UK, offering an early read on January activity. ECB President Lagarde then takes the stage at the WEF, she has appeared a couple of times already so it'll be interesting to see what more she has to offer.North America wraps up the week with Canadian retail sales (8:30 A.M) and US PMIs (9:45 A.M), before the Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations data conclude a high paced week at 10:00 A.M. With growth, inflation and central bank signals all in play, volatility could stay elevated into the weekly close.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Australian Dollar has grabbed FX traders' attentions for a while now, as data for the Island Continent has consistently beaten expectations.Rate cuts for the Royal Bank of Australia have been tough to program since they began reducing their main policy rate, the Cash Rate, in February 2025.Stubbornly strong economic data, ever-stronger jobs market, and high inflation haven't provided the Central Bank many reasons to cut rates. As a matter of fact, they have only cut three times, from 4.35% to the current 3.60%. zoom_out_map Australian Inflation Rate since January 2025 – Source: TradingEconomics, RBA What is catching traders' attention is the actual repricing of RBA hikes – the current year-end rate is expected to be back above 4%.The Australian jobs report, published yesterday, showed a surprising beat (+65.2K vs 30K estimates), which took the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%, levels unseen since a full year prior.Aussies are facing high inflation as high demand and an ever-hotter economy keep workers and spenders afloat. zoom_out_map Interest Rate-Based Expectations of a 25 bps hike at the Feb 3 RBA Meeting – Source: ASX.com Supported by Chinese stimulus, strong internal growth, and extreme demand for metals, which they are a significant producer of, are among the factors boosting the Australian Dollar at the top of yearly FX currency movement.Particularly as risk appetite stays tight (AUD is a risk-on currency) and Australia is far from Western geopolitical trouble, the currency can't stop attracting further inflows. Adding to this a renewed hawkish stance, while other Central Banks aim for rate cuts, and you get a perfect cocktail for the Aussie.Now, we'll take a look at an AUD/USD multi-timeframe chart analysis to see where the current rally could head. Read More:US GDP beats and Monday gaps fill – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookGreenland tensions ease, but forecasts for Gold are still very optimisticNatural gas explodes by 70% in four sessions: What's next?AUD/USD Multi-Timeframe Chart AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map AUD/USD Daily Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Aussie is running higher since December 2025 and its upward performance coordinated a break above its 2021 Long-term downtrend.Now forming a gigantic bullish Daily candle, there won't be much to hold the bullish movement until the 0.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance.The Daily action is dominated by the bulls and despite overbought RSI conditions, this doesn't look like a trend to fade – At least for now.For long-term traders, keep a close eye on communications from the RBA as a February 3 Hike could get closer ~ At least that's what Rate Futures are pricing.4H Chart and Trading Levels zoom_out_map AUD/USD 4H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView Having sweeped above its Pivot Zone (0.6750), the action remains dominated by the bulls.Levels of interest for AUD/USD TradingResistance levelsDaily Channel highs 0.68850.69 to 0.6945 Main 2024 resistance0.69420 September 2024 highsDec 2021 Lows 0.70 Major Resistance2023 Highs and 0.71 ResistanceSupport levelsOctober 2024 Major Pivot 0.6750 (+/- 100 pips)0.67540 Session lowsSeptember FOMC Highs Support 0.6680 to 0.67100.66 to 0.6630 December SupportJune 2025 Support 0.63 to 0.641H Chart zoom_out_map AUD/USD 1H Chart, January 22, 2026 – Source: TradingView AUD/USD is now moving to some new highs at 0.68450 and starting to show some form of slowing.The 1H RSI is now turning lower as a session peak could have been reached and traders take profits.A retest of the 20-Hour Moving Average at 0.68140 could be reached in late-session trading – Aggressive rebounding from here hints at further bull-side imbalance (chase to higher levels)Correcting all the way back to ~0.6800 holds decent odds and could offer decent pullback entry points for late-trend buyers.Closing below the 0.6770 50-Hour MA could lead to further downwards mean-reversionOverall, look for a pullback and watch reactions when the trading gets 150 pips to the 0.69 level (around 0.68850). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The price gap between silver in the US and in Shanghai has widened and is larger than normal.Western prices are driven mainly by futures and paper trading, while Chinese prices reflect physical supply and demand.Strong industrial and investment demand for physical silver in China supports a persistent price premium.Logistical and regulatory barriers limit arbitrage, allowing the divergence to last. In recent weeks, the gap between silver prices in the United States and China has widened noticeably and is now larger than usual. According to the chart, silver is currently priced at around USD 94 per ounce in the US, while the equivalent price in Shanghai is roughly USD 104 per ounce after currency conversion. A spread of nearly USD 10 per ounce is not a minor discrepancy but a meaningful signal that the two markets are being driven by different forces.This divergence is not primarily the result of exchange rates or transaction costs. Instead, it reflects fundamental differences in market structure, pricing mechanisms, and local supply and demand dynamics. zoom_out_map Chart compares daily silver prices from the Shanghai Gold Exchange with Western silver prices, converted to USD/oz using daily CNY/USD rates Paper pricing versus physical metal pricing In the US and Europe, silver prices are largely determined on markets such as COMEX and in London, where futures contracts and financial instruments dominate trading activity. The vast majority of these contracts are settled financially rather than through physical delivery. As a result, prices tend to reflect liquidity conditions, speculative positioning, movements in the US dollar, and interest rate expectations more than the immediate availability of physical silver.In China, pricing works differently. On the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, physical delivery plays a far more important role. Prices in Shanghai are therefore much more closely tied to actual demand for metal that can be taken out of the exchange system. When demand for physical silver rises, this pressure is quickly reflected in higher local prices.Strong physical demand in China A key driver of the current premium in Shanghai is strong physical demand for silver in China. Silver is a strategically important industrial metal, used extensively in solar panels, electronics, and advanced manufacturing. In addition, Chinese investors tend to place greater emphasis on owning physical bullion rather than paper exposure.When this demand intensifies, local supply can become tight. In such an environment, the market clears not through higher trading volumes in derivatives, but through higher prices for immediately available metal, pushing Shanghai prices well above Western futures-based benchmarks.Supply, inventories, and logistics Differences in local inventories and logistics also matter. If physical silver stocks in China are relatively low while demand remains strong, prices must rise to balance the market. In the US and Europe, where inventories are larger and financial instruments dominate, similar demand pressures may not show up as quickly in prices.At the same time, moving physical silver between regions is costly and complex. Transportation, certification, regulatory requirements, and capital constraints all limit how easily silver can flow from lower-priced markets to higher priced ones. These frictions allow price gaps to persist.Why arbitrage does not eliminate the gap In theory, a USD 10 per ounce price difference should invite arbitrage. In practice, arbitrage in the silver market is far from frictionless. Access to deliverable metal, export and import rules, and the time and cost involved in moving bullion across borders significantly weaken the arbitrage mechanism.As a result, the price link between COMEX and Shanghai is looser than many investors assume, allowing China to trade at a sustained premium.What the current 94 vs 104 USD spread is telling us The current situation - around USD 94 per ounce in the US versus about USD 104 per ounce in Shanghai - suggests that:physical silver is relatively scarcer and more highly valued in China than in Western markets,Western “paper” prices may not fully reflect physical market tightness,the physical market is sending an early signal of supply-and-demand stress.Historically, such sustained premiums on physical markets have often preceded either higher global prices or periods of increased volatility as Western markets eventually react.Silver ETFs see heavy outflows despite firm prices Since the start of the year, silver-focused exchange-traded funds have recorded substantial withdrawals. Data from Bloomberg show that ETF holdings of silver fell by around 528 tonnes within the first two weeks of the year. A significant share of this reduction came from the largest silver-backed ETF in the United States.The rapid appreciation in silver prices appears to have prompted many ETF investors to lock in gains, although part of the decline in holdings may also be linked to physical metal being removed from ETF vaults. Notably, these outflows have not translated into downward pressure on prices, indicating that demand from other parts of the market has absorbed the metal.A comparable dynamic was seen in the palladium market several years ago, when ETF inventories fell sharply even as prices continued to climb. At that time, ETF disinvestment contributed to alleviating tight physical supply conditions. That said, it remains premature to assume a similar outcome for silver, and the current developments should be interpreted cautiously.Conclusion The growing gap between silver prices in the US and in Shanghai highlights the contrast between a financially driven paper market and a physically driven commodity market. The unusually large premium in China indicates that real, deliverable silver is currently more valuable there than futures-based pricing in the West suggests. While this does not guarantee an immediate global repricing, it is a signal that the physical side of the silver market is under pressure and one that global investors would be wise to watch closely. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Pullback, not a trend break: The Hang Seng slipped 1.5% this week on weak China retail sales but remains up 3.7% YTD and continues to outperform major US indices, signalling resilience rather than a structural reversal.USD weakness is the key tailwind: A strengthening offshore yuan (CNH) and a breakdown in USD/CNH point to sustained US dollar weakness, which has historically fed directly into upside momentum for Hong Kong and broader Asia-Pacific equities.Technical setup favours a rebound: The index is holding its 20-day moving average with bullish RSI signals; above 26,870 opens the path toward 27,175 and 27,500, while a break below 26,250 would delay the bullish case with a deeper correction. Since the start of the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index has staged a decline of 1.5%, negatively impacted by localized macro headwinds.Mixed tier-one economic data from China was released on Monday, January 19. Industrial production rose by 5.2% y/y in December 2025, accelerating from a 4.8% rise in November and surpassing expectations of 5%; its fastest increase since September.In contrast, retail sales rose modestly by only 0.9% year-over-year (y/y) in December, following a 1.3% increase in November and coming in below expectations of a 1.2% increase. It marked the weakest growth since December 2022, despite one of the top economic priorities being pushed by top Chinese policymakers to increase consumer demand.Hang Seng Index continues to outperform S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and DJIA zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Year-to-date performances of global stock indices as of 21 Jan 2026 (Source: MacroMicro) Overall, despite the current week-to-date loss of 1.5% as of Thursday, 22 January 22, the Hang Seng Index recorded a gain of 3.7%, and still managed to beat three of the major US benchmark stock indices; Dow Jones Industrial Average (+2.1%), S&P 500 (+0.4%), and Nasdaq 100 (+0.3%) except for US small-cap Russell 2000 that ranked the second spot with a rally of 8.7% (see Fig 1.)A stronger yuan (weaker USD) provides a significant tailwind zoom_out_map Fig. 2: USD/CNH medium-term & major trends as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: CNH/USD major trend with Hang Seng Index & other Asia Pacific stock markets as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) has appreciated significantly against the US dollar since the start of the new year. The USD/CNH broke below a former key medium-term support of 6.9710 (the 26 September 2024 swing low) and traded to a 32-month low of 6.9595 at the time of writing, supported by the continuation of the 2-year yield premium shrinkage of the US Treasuries over Chinese government bonds (see Fig. 2).These observations suggest that the USD/CNH is likely to have transitioned into a potential major downtrend phase, which may suggest further US dollar weakness ahead towards 6.8960 per USD in the first step.Based on intermarket analysis, since 2 December 2025, the inverse of USD/CNH (CNH per USD) has moved in a significant direct correlation with several Asia Pacific stock markets (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index, MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan), and MSCI Emerging Markets ex China (see Fig. 3).The recent rise in the offshore yuan (CNH) has led to similar upside movements seen in the stock markets. Therefore, a further strengthening of the CNH against the US dollar is likely to create a positive feedback loop back into the Hang Seng Index.Let's now decipher the short-term (1 to 3 days) trajectory of the Hang Seng Index from a technical analysis perspective.Hang Seng Index reached an inflection zone for a potential bullish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 5: Hong Kong 33 CFD index major trend as of 22 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The recent 3.4% decline (high to low) from 16 January 2026 to 20 January 2026 of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) is likely to reach an inflection zone to kickstart a potential bullish reversal and potentially transform into an impulsive up move sequence.The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index have managed to hold at its 20-day moving average, which confluences with the minor ascending channel support from the 16 December 2025 low of 25,087.In addition, the hourly RSI momentum indicator has staged a bullish breakout, which suggests a revival of short-term bullish momentum.Watch the 26,330/26,250 short-term pivotal support, and a clearance above 26,870 may set sight on the next intermediate resistance at 27,175 before the major resistance comes in at 27,500 (the long-term secular descending trendline from the 29 January 2018 all-time high) (see Fig. 4).On the other hand, failure to hold at 26,250 and an hourly close below it jeopardizes the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the next intermediate support at 26,045/5,970 (also the 50-day moving average) (see Fig. 5). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 21 Markets just got their latest shot of surprise with Trump's latest comments, backing off on his recent Greenland rhetoric.In a mid-afternoon Truth Social post, the President stated that he will not pursue the purchase of Greenland, having, during the recent tensions and discussions, formed a key arrangement for the Arctic region and Denmark, particularly concerning the Golden Dome. zoom_out_map Trump's latest TACO, January 21, 2026 – Source: Truth Social With tariffs expected to be levied, the Stock Market is bouncing sharply higher, and the risk premium seen in Gold and Platinum is easing.Silver could also be showing signs of a correction, as the parabolic trend stalled despite today's initial risk-off action – keep a very close eye on the commodity, as traders can expect significant volatility there if the asset-specific bubble pops.So nothing happened? Looking at the recent Market movement, it seems like it.Nevertheless, angst will remain as unpredictability from the US President stays extreme.It will be interesting to see how global leaders react to the announcement.Most speeches at the WEF revolved around the New World Order – Traders are just happy to receive their TACO order. Bulls are back strong in today's Stock Market action, and even the struggling Crypto class is rallying.Overall, it's not like things will just go back to the way they were over the past 25 years.Nevertheless, our Rules-Based international system isn't just going to collapse like this, at least as long as the US is still a democracy.Still, there are many reasons to be concerned about the recent geopolitical madness. Let's see how things go and pray for the best. Discover:A New World Order or TACO order? – North American mid-week Market updateMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookStocks pump but doubts remain – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 21, 2026 Most of the Stock Market shined green in today's rebound session.Volatility and uncertainty remain very high, which isn't the best for the Stock Market and Investor sentiment – I don't think that today's rebound will just lead to a one-way ride to new all-time highs, things could still get bumpy.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the latest flows suddenly switching, Metals have given back their premium.They now stand at pretty fragile territories, a good moment to check back on our recent Metals piece.Except for Natural Gas which is once again squeezing higher by a huge 30% (!), all other asset classes have mean-reverted from their early week action.Volatility should largely subside except if anything else happens – Keep a close eye on upcoming trading as it should resemble to next week's action, all the way to the January 28 FOMC.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 21, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs FX Flows are taking a more concrete direction, with the CHF giving back its premium from earlier this week and the AUD & NZD combo elevating once again to new cycle highs.Antipodeans could remain strong for a while, as strong fundamentals and their position on the globe isolates them from the volatile European and American tensions, without even mentioning the Middle East.The US Dollar is now unchanged on the session – Its outlook is going to be confusing, and they will surely remain like this until the FOMC.Major Earnings in Tomorrow's session zoom_out_map Earnings Calendar – January 21, 2026 – Source: Nasdaq.com There will be high expectations for Intel and Proctor&Gamble.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday’s evening session is loaded with APAC action. Japan releases its full December trade data slate — exports, imports and the trade balance — offering a fresh read on external demand and yen sensitivity. Shortly after, Australia takes centre stage with its December labour market report, where employment, participation and the jobless rate will be key for near-term RBA expectations.Thursday then pivots decisively back to Europe and the US. Early on, Germany’s Buba report and ECB monetary accounts set the euro tone before US markets are hit with a dense macro block: Q3 GDP and price components, jobless claims, and a full run of PCE inflation, income and spending data for October and November. With core PCE at the heart of Fed reaction functions, this cluster has the potential to drive rates and FX into the weekend – Next week will welcome the January FOMC Meeting (Decision on Wednesday 28!)Looking ahead, tomorrow’s evening session could be especially eventful, as the Bank of Japan steps into focus. While any move is far from guaranteed, markets are increasingly alert to the risk of a potential (not-so-surprising) rate hike — a scenario that could boost recent JPY volatility even furtherSafe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Mid-Week review where we dive into the major developments for North American and global tradersUS President Trump creates panic by moving towards acquiring Greenland in his America First policy – EU-US Tensions rise to new highs but Trump de-escalatesThe US Dollar tumbles as the World Economic Forum is happening – Presidents and Prime Ministers make many mentions of a new World Order Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Have we entered the New World Order?That's the question, which got extensively and intensely covered by Global Leaders in their speeches at the ongoing World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.President Trump awakened Prime Ministers and Presidents around the world, particularly in the OECD, with his latest threats to acquire Greenland, a "national interest" that has remained so for centuries. (Note: Trump is backing up from his words in the Latest TACO) Read More:Breaking: TACO Time – US President Trump de-escalates regarding Greenland, Stocks explode Having a defense line in the North Pole, anticipating new trade routes as Global Warming continues, and extracting precious materials (Rare earths and more) are decent reasons for the US to entertain such desires.But the issue here is one of sovereignty. zoom_out_map Greenland's Rare Earth Reserves – Source: Visual Capitalist Economists and strategists were already addressing the question as Trump began to lead the polls in September 2024. After the operation in Venezuela, the doors opened wide for outside interventions.The thing is, when it's far from us, it's not such a big deal (Iraq in 2003, Venezuela today). It's particularly the case when OECD interests don't get actively compromised.The bigger issue is when a friend, an ally, or a sovereign territory is threatened. Things change, pacts and promises break, and the situation gets all over the place.The immediate reactions in Markets at the Globex open on Sunday were major down gaps in Equities, the US Dollar, and risk assets. At the same time, Gold kept shining amid the geopolitical turmoil – Note: These flows are now sharply reversing after Trump's comments!This start to 2026 is simply the realization of most of what was feared in 2025.A new world order where polarized geographic powers will dominate is not far off – it's already happening with Russia and China, and now the US could be heading in this direction.Canada's PM, Mark Carney, actually gave a beautiful speech on that aspect, which I strongly encourage you all to listen to – "The Rules-Based Order is fading".America First doesn't mean it's going to be about the Mainland US only, as was said in our past week's Mid-Week Recap.Today, as Trump arrived in Davos, he calmed the tone slightly by saying he won't use force to acquire Greenland, but he still did not back down entirely from his words.TACO or not? Traders are undecided about today's Stock market rebound. zoom_out_map TACO Time, Trump's republished Truth Social Post – Source: X EDIT: As I was about to publish this, the TACO officially got confirmed.Trump is taking out the latest tariffs announced for February 1 through a Truth Social Post, Stocks are exploding higher. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15M Chart – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Stocks pump but doubts remain – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookUS President Trump speaks at the Davos World Economic ForumNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView With the latest TACO, the tone is shifting fast from bearish worries to "actually nothing happened".The ongoing rebound is gigantic and most Stock Indexes have paired their weekly losses that extended all the way to -3% compared to last Wednesday.The rest is to see if the positive sentiment holds as uncertainty still lingers.Dollar Index 4H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index 4H Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dollar Index is showing a sudden rise as Trump backs off from his words.Bouncing from the 200-Period Moving Average, the Dollar is now bouncing against its major FX peers.Imminently going to test the 99.00 Level which will hold as a key indicator, as it also combines with its 50-period MA. Breaking back above should lead to a further rebound in the USD, continuing the upside path it was taking in early 2026.Rejecting indicates further doubts from Market participants regarding the unstable words from the US President.Levels of interest for the Dollar Index:Resistance LevelsTesting Upper bound of 98.80 Pivot Zone4H 40-period MA 99.00Immediate Resistance 99.25 to 99.50100.00 to 100.50 Main Resistance Zone100.376 November highsSupport Levels98.25 Weekly lows98.00 Key support (+/- 100 pips)December Lows 97.7597.40 to 97.80 August Range Support2025 Lows 96.40 to 96.80 SupportUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 21, 2026 - Source: TradingView Except for the Pound which got consistently offered throughout the past week following its several dovish data points, it is difficult to see what direction the US Dollar is taking against its major peers.Weakening strongly in this weekly open, the recent switch in tone from the President largely changes the trend – My view is that the Dollar could bounce somewhat before holding rangebound conditions until the situation gets clear.On the other hand, Antipodean currencies (AUD and NZD) really are shining from their externalities to such ongoing developments. As implied by their surnames, they are really far from the tense geopolitical action.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 21, 2026 - Source: TradingView. Except against the USD and GBP, weakest currencies among the G7 FX, the CAD is struggling to hold strong.Mark Carney's speech could potentially generate some strength for the Loonie but Canadian data will first have to consistently bounce back.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD corrected strongly throughout the beginning of the week but as Trump comments preceded a decent rebound in the US Dollar, Bulls have appeared at the recent test of the 1.38 Support.If the rally extends above the 50-period 4H MA (1.3876), look for a test of the past week highs (1.3930)My view is one of a more rangebound action between 1.37 to 1.39 for the time being.Any breakout beyond these boundaries will require further analysis.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels4H 50-MA at 1.387650-Day MA and psychological level 1.39Past Week highs 1.39301.40 to 1.4050 Key ResistanceSupport Levels200-Day MA 1.384251.38 Pivotal Support (current bounce)1.3787 Daily LowsMajor Support Zone 1.3650 to 1.37December 26 lows 1.364301.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar Stay in touch with the latest geopolitical developments, as things could still get very spicy. Keep a close eyes on the World Economic Forum and their speeches – And don't forget about Iran.I think the latest developments with Greenland could really just be to create diversions from Iran. Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US President just shared a Truth Social post announcing that he will cancel tariffs regarding Greenland, announced during yesterday's session.It's official: The Greenland story is yet another TACO. zoom_out_map TACO Time, Trump's republished Truth Social Post – Source: X Stock Markets are rebounding in a hurry to catch up with previous days of losses.It seems that the Air Force One issues and the President's fatigue is making him even more volatile today. zoom_out_map Dow Jones 15M Chart, January 21, 2026 – Source: TradingView Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (21/01/2026): In this midweek episode of the Market Insight Podcast, TraderNick and Jonny discuss a more diplomatic approach from Donald Trump regarding Greenland and the associated rise in pricing across global equity and bond markets. Otherwise, we look back on now-infamous’ Liberation Day’ and dissect a higher-than-expected UK CPI reading, putting the Bank of England in an unenviable position. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 20 US traders returned from the Martin Luther King Day holiday to face a rough surprise. EU-US tensions remain elevated, with speeches increasingly referring to a shift toward a New World Disorder. (trademark)The US Dollar, US equity futures, and bonds sold off again, while the Swiss Franc continued to rise, as it did yesterday.These flows are defining the current market landscape and are likely to persist as long as President Trump maintains his aggressive rhetoric. By the way, today is the President’s 1st anniversary of his second term.In a notable divergence from traditional risk-off dynamics, the Japanese Yen continues to see selling pressure as Fiscal pressure builds further after PM Takaichi announced a snap election in February – a hike on Thursday's Bank of Japan meeting becomes more probable by the second.Meanwhile, precious metals are surging, with Gold, Silver, and Platinum all reaching new highs – in contrast, crypto faced harsh rejection, sending Bitcoin down 3.50% to trade below $90,000.Natural Gas also spiked again, rising another 10% in today's session as EU-US tensions can start closing some supply door for the Eurozone.President Trump will land in Davos early tomorrow morning. Expect a flurry of headlines from the conference, with his speech scheduled for 8:30 A.M. Discover:Market Check – Risk-sentiment sours further, Gold (XAU/USD) explodesStocks rebound, is it TACO Tuesday? – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookThe Swissie wins: CHF demand spikes as traders shun the DollarChart alert: AUD/USD bullish breakout above 0.6720 as “sell America” intensifies zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 20, 2026 The US Stock Market reopened today and things did not look good.The post MLK-Day reopen brought the Nasdaq, once again leading to the downside (-2.19%) and the Dow Jones not holding much better (-1.76%).Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Metals once again lead assets to the upside while everything else dies down.Natural Gas closes higher by 10% as supply fears for Europe (with the Russian door closed and the US supply potentially compromised) drag further.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 20, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Both the JPY and USD are concurring to the downside for the second consecutive session, with flows this time heading right back towards the safe-haven CHF.FX Developments are promised to remain volatile for the time being so keep a close eye!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Wednesday is packed and inflation-heavy, with the UK taking centre stage early.December CPI, a full slate of price indicators (PPI and RPI) will be decisive for rate expectations, especially after today's beat in labour data.Any upside surprise would reinforce a cautious BoE stance, while softer prints could revive easing bets.The World Economic Forum reserves multiple speeches from Lagarde, Escrivá, Villeroy and Nagel as the conference keeps going in Davos.President Trump’s will also have an address at the WEF as he lands in Switzerland tonight. Tomorrow's speech is expected at 08:30 A.M ET.Late in the session, Asia-Pacific data takes over, with Japan’s trade figures ahead of Thursday's Bank of Japan (high importance with the gigantic moves in the JPY) and Australia’s labour report likely to drive FX volatility, especially AUD crosses, given expectations for job gains and a steady unemployment rate.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

EU–US tensions are worsening, with the EU now pushing to suspend the tariff deal agreed upon in July, further clouding the political atmosphere.US President Trump is currently addressing the public to celebrate “365 Days, 365 Wins,” highlighting what he frames as his key achievements over the past year as he marks the first anniversary of his second term.He is, unsurprisingly, showcasing the strongest anecdotes from his perspective. However, such addresses are unlikely to sit well with several EU leaders, especially amid growing pushback against the President’s recent rhetoric regarding Greenland.The FX pair to watch to monitor how serious current discussions get is USD/CHF, situated at the perfect intercept between European issues, safe-haven demand and dedollarization trends – Down 1.90% since Friday! zoom_out_map USD/CHF 2H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView Get access to our latest analysis of the currency pair right here! While this morning’s appearance by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefly eased the tone — urging everyone to “take a deep breath and let things play out” — markets did not take comfort for long. Read More: Stocks rebound, is it TACO Tuesday? – Dow Jones and US Stock Index Outlook Gold had already gapped higher in yesterday’s session and continued to extend gains as US traders returned from the Martin Luther King Day holiday, now pushing toward $4,760. Silver and other metals are following suit, printing fresh highs. zoom_out_map XAU/USD (Gold) 2H Chart – January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Equities, on the other hand, tell a very different story. Stock indices bounced early in the session but topped quickly and failed to recover. The Dow Jones is now down 1.80%, while both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are lower by around 2%. The key question now shifts to US Treasuries, which are facing renewed selling pressure as European banks and funds consider further diversification away from the US dollar. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) 2H Chart, January 20, 2026 – Source: TradingView The weaponization of foreign-owned assets has set a precedent — as seen with Russian assets in Europe and the US — and remains a growing concern for investors as Global leaders call out the New World Order and the World Economy Conference is ongoing.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways US dollar under pressure as “sell America” narrative builds: Escalating US foreign policy tensions with NATO/EU allies over Greenland have driven a second straight session of USD weakness, with AUD and NZD outperforming most majors.AUD/USD breaks higher with bullish momentum: The pair has cleared the 0.6720–0.6730 resistance zone, resuming its bullish impulsive move within a broader medium-term uptrend, with 0.6760 as the next upside trigger.Technical and macro signals reinforce the bullish bias: A bullish engulfing pattern, supportive momentum indicators, and a widening Australia–US 2-year yield spread all argue for further AUD/USD upside unless 0.6690 support fails. The US dollar has dropped for the second consecutive session after the latest US hostile foreign policy towards its long-time allies, where US President Trump threatened the eight NATO/EU members, which include Germany, France, and the UK, that objected to the US’s strong push to purchase Greenland, a resource-rich Arctic territory under Denmark’s autonomous control.The US dollar fared the worst against the NZD (-0.5%) and the AUD (-0.3%) among major currencies on a 1-day rolling basis, but managed to buck the trend against the Japanese yen, where the greenback recorded an intraday gain of 0.2% due to the upcoming snap election in Japan on February 8 that may prevent the Bank of Japan (BoJ) issue a hawkish monetary policy guidance on its rate setting meeting this Friday, January 23 (see Fig. 1). zoom_out_map Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 20 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Let us now focus on the short-term (1 to 3 days) technical trend and key levels to watch on the AUD/USDAUD/USD: Bullish impulsive sequence resumes within medium-term uptrend zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD minor trend as of 20 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD medium-term trend as of 20 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the 0.6690 short-term pivotal support (also the 20-day moving average). A clearance above 0.6760 is likely to see the next intermediate resistances come in at 0.6800 and 0.6830/6845 (see Fig. 2).However, a break with an hourly close below 0.6690 invalidates the bullish breakout for another round of choppy minor corrective decline to retest the 0.6670/6600 minor range support. Failure to hold at 0.6660 may extend the decline to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6630 and 0.6590 (also the close to the 50-day moving average).Key elements to support the bullish bias on AUD/USD Today’s bullish breakout above 0.6720 has come after the formation of Monday, January 20’s daily “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick after a retest on the 20-day moving average (see Fig. 3).The hourly RSI momentum indicator has reached the overbought region, but without any bearish divergence condition.The monetary policy-sensitive yield spread of the 2-year Australian sovereign bond over the 2-year US Treasury note has rebounded to 0.50% from 0.43% printed on last Friday, January 16. The widening of the yield spread premium supports a further potential up move on the AUD/USD. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 19 US traders were off for Martin Luther King which concentrated action during the overnight Asia and Euro Sessions ~ Nevertheless, US traders will have some work to do as they come back to their desks.EU-US tensions are rising as Trump issues further threats to purchase Greenland for "national security reasons".Weekly Open Volatility then spiked to the upside despite a calmer North American session, leading to a significant shift in recent Market flows.The US Dollar, US Equity Futures, and bonds sold off, while other currencies, particularly the Swiss Franc, rose. Meanwhile, the Gold and Silver combo exploded to new all-time highs before the action slowed down drastically with the afternoon London Fix.Crypto remains a mystery and hasn't moved much in correlation with the latest geopolitical events, although Bitcoin stands at an interesting technical support level.By the way, Natural Gas exploded higher by 15% as a cold-wave heats up supply threats and European Nat-Gas sources could get further compromised by new tensions between the EU and the US ~ Without Russian commodities, the Eurozone will have to get creative.With volatility likely to remain elevated, traders should keep a close watch on the headlines. Discover:EUR/USD hints a breakout after latest Trump-Greenland chaosUS Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayGreenland as the trigger of a new trade war The US Stock Market was closed today ~ Overall Stock Indexes sold off as global trade tensions and uncertainty heat up.Even the high-pace Nikkei broke its winning trend ~ US Futures couldn't escape their fate, with Nasdaq leading to the downside (-1.20%)Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Most of the action happened at the Globex open and overnight session – The rest was mainly mean-reversion from profit-taking.Natural Gas and Metals remain the large winners of today's action. Still, the real test will be to see what happens when US Traders return.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 19, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs The Yen can't catch a break as it drags lower every day: PM Takaichi officially announced the Snap Elections which hurts credibility and traders just won't listen to the intervention warnings and verbal threats.Profiting from Yen depreciation has been a juicy trade until now.Surprisingly, it closes below the US Dollar which got harshly rejected, as fundamentals cross with the technicals in the latest Geopolitical drama.Explore our in-depth USD outlook from Friday right here to learn more!A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week opens with Asia in focus. New Zealand’s Business PSI offers an early read on activity, before attention turns to China with the PBoC interest rate decision, a key signal for regional liquidity conditions and broader risk sentiment.Tuesday is much heavier across Europe and the UK. Eurozone PPI and the EcoFin meeting set the macro backdrop, while UK labour data (earnings, employment change, and unemployment rate) will be awaited during the overnight session.Expectations for the monthly Claimants Count (Jobless Claims) data are at ~19K.Later in the session, sentiment takes centre stage in Europe with the ZEW surveys, providing an update on confidence and the economic outlook. In the US, the weekly ADP employment serves as a preliminary labour market check, before ECB communication from Nagel rounds out the day.Watch out for surprising flows when US Traders get back to their desks!Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East and Greenland developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

In case you missed the headlines, the attention quickly shifted from a potential intervention in Iran to heightened US threats to acquire Greenland by purchase.After the threats over the weekend, EU heads of state are planning an emergency meeting, even as the World Economic Forum in Davos begins. The recent geopolitical intimidation against Denmark and Greenland, combined with additional economic warnings, has prompted the European Union to raise the current 15% tariff rate by 10% if the European Union disagrees, starting February 1.Despite American Markets being closed today for MLK Day, US assets have sold off quite harshly, with the latest tariff and general Trump volatility hurting the US Dollar.On the other hand, the European Central Bank is consolidating its power and stability as Vice President de Guindos officially steps down, with hawk-leaning Croatian Governor Boris Vujcic selected as his replacement.With the latest events and flows, EUR/USD is breaking to the upside and could attract quite a bit of attention (and volatility) for the times to come – keep a close eye on these developments.In the meantime, let's dive into a multi-timeframe EUR/USD technical analysis. Discover:US Markets fall as Greenland tensions flare – Stock Markets closed for MLK DayGreenland as the trigger of a new trade warImpact on US-EU tensions: Risk-off, US dollar subdued, heightened demand for Gold and SilverEUR/USD Multi-timeframe Technical AnalysisDaily Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD Daily Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD is attempting an upside breakout from its end-2025 Descending Channel.Bouncing off of its 200-Day Moving Average (which just caught up from the 10% 2025 rally in the pair), the immediate flows and events could cause a larger breakout from its 6-month long 4,000 pip consolidation.Several hurdles will need to be breached before that.The immediate test comes around 1.1630 which acts as key momentum pivot and coincides with the actual breakout from the Channel.Breaking and closing 1.18 on the weekly could test the 1.20 levels – Such developments would take more timeSuch scenarios exclude a potential Trump TACO where he backs off of his recent words ~ The best scenario for the USD 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map EUR/USD 4H Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView Watch if tomorrow closes above or below the 4H-50 MA to confirm a breakout or rejection of the Channel higher bound.Resistance levels1.1640 to 1.1660 Intermediate Pivot and 4H 50-MA (1.16490)1.17 Psychological Level1.1750 minor resistanceMain resistance 1.18 (range Highs)Support levels1.1580 to 1.16 Key Support1.1550 Channel lows1.1470 to 1.15 Pivotal Support (Range Lows)1H Chart zoom_out_map EUR/USD 1H Chart, January 19, 2026 – Source: TradingView EUR/USD shows a more balanced price action as volumes largely fall off (US Traders are off).It will be very interesting to see whether bulls push for a (descending) channel breakout or the 1H 200 MA/4H 50 MA stalls the price action.Rejecting the channel highs would point either to a retest of Sunday lows or (1.15780) or continued downside (lower odds looking at the current situation).Note: The Euro could still be affected negatively from the current development, reason why the Swiss Franc is leading the daily FX flows.Safe Trades!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (19/01/2026): In today's episode, OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss geopolitical themes currently at play, and their impact on financial markets, including recent tariff threats from President Trump. Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Greenland dispute risks triggering a renewed EU–US trade war, with the US threatening tariffs of up to 25 per cent unless Denmark agrees to sell Greenland.New US tariffs would effectively dismantle last summer’s EU–US trade truce, despite legal uncertainty over their validity.Germany is particularly exposed: exports to the US are already sharply lower, and higher tariffs could significantly hit GDP.The conflict also weakens confidence in the US dollar, as markets fear long-term erosion of its global role due to politicised trade policy.An escalation that goes beyond trade A new trade dispute between the European Union and the United States, triggered by the conflict over Greenland, is sharply increasing the risk of a lasting deterioration in transatlantic relations. Donald Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs of 10 per cent on imports from eight European countries (including Germany and France) from 1 February, with the threat of raising them to 25 per cent from June. According to Washington, avoiding further escalation would require Denmark to agree to the sale of Greenland to the United States.A trade agreement under question If implemented, these measures would effectively dismantle the EU - US trade agreement reached last summer, which was designed to freeze the earlier tariff dispute and cap US duties at 15 per cent. The legal basis for new tariffs in the United States remains highly uncertain, and the Supreme Court is expected to rule soon on the validity of many existing measures. Nevertheless, past experience suggests that legal uncertainty rarely constrains the Trump administration’s use of tariffs as a political tool.Security arguments or domestic politics The official White House narrative frames the issue in terms of security, arguing that Greenland faces growing threats from China and Russia. This claim is weak, given that the United States already enjoys extensive rights on the island, including military deployments, base construction, surveillance of shipping routes and access to natural resources. It therefore seems more plausible that the escalation is driven by domestic political considerations, including the desire to divert attention from internal challenges and to cultivate the image of a president who expands US territory and influence.A big risk for Germany For Germany, the dispute comes at a particularly unfavourable time. Even after the introduction of reciprocal tariffs last year, German exports to the United States fell markedly. In November 2025, the value of German goods exports to the US was over 20 per cent lower than a year earlier. Estimates indicate that the current 15 per cent tariff regime could reduce German GDP by around 0.3 per cent, while an increase to 25 per cent - would deliver a significantly stronger negative shock.Limited options for the European Union The sale of Greenland has been firmly rejected by both Denmark and Greenland’s own authorities. Brussels may continue to pursue diplomatic de-escalation, for instance by offering a stronger NATO presence or expanded security cooperation. However, the scope for compromise appears limited. As a result, the likelihood of a renewed trade conflict is rising, ranging from a formal rejection of the existing agreement with the United States to retaliatory tariffs and, ultimately, the use of anti-coercion instruments against major US corporations.The risk of escalation remains high A major obstacle is the lack of consensus within the EU. While some member states and influential Members of the European Parliament favour a tougher response, others (less exposed to economic damage) see little benefit in reigniting the conflict. As a consequence, although diplomatic de-escalation cannot be ruled out, the probability of a renewed trade war has clearly increased. The dispute over Greenland may thus become the catalyst for a broader and more damaging economic confrontation, with particularly severe and long-lasting consequences for Germany and the European economy as a whole.Dollar weakens as tariff threats revive structural concerns zoom_out_map Chart of the US dollar index, daily data, source: TradingView The US dollar weakened today as markets reassessed the implications of Washington’s renewed tariff threats. Until now, the dollar had been supported by a slower-than-expected increase in trade barriers and by strong investment flows into new technologies, while investors assumed that any escalation would hurt Europe more than the United States. That sense of resilience is now being questioned. Beyond the immediate trade impact, markets are increasingly alert to the longer-term risk that more frequent use of tariffs and economic pressure could undermine the dollar’s role as the world’s dominant currency, encouraging trading partners to reduce their reliance on dollar-based transactions in order to limit political exposure.European stocks slide on fresh US tariff threats zoom_out_map Chart of a CFD contract based on the DAX index, daily data, source: TradingView European equities came under strong pressure on Monday after Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on eight European countries. The Stoxx Europe 600 fell by roughly 1 per cent, reflecting broad weakness in trade-sensitive and risk-exposed stocks. National benchmarks also declined, with France’s CAC 40 down about 1.6 per cent, Germany’s DAX lower by around 1.35 per cent, and the UK’s FTSE 100 easing roughly 0.52 per cent, as investors sold off automakers, luxury names and other export-driven sectors. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Geopolitical escalation drives risk-off: Trump’s tariff threats against key NATO allies over Greenland have sharply intensified US–EU tensions, prompting EU retaliation plans and triggering a broad risk-off move across global equities, particularly in Asia and US index futures.US dollar weak, safe havens surge: Despite risk aversion, the US dollar failed to benefit as the “debasement trade” narrative took hold. Capital rotated into precious metals, with gold and silver surging to fresh record highs.Technical damage to equities, bullish momentum with metals: US Nasdaq 100 and European indices (DAX) show near-term technical breakdowns or mean-reversion risks, while gold and silver maintain bullish acceleration, reinforcing their role as primary geopolitical hedges. “Tarriff Man” is backed with a vengeance. After the “capture” of Venezuela at the start of the new year via the forceful removal of Venezuela’s leadership and the seizure of oil assets to be placed under US control, Trump has set sight on Greenland next, the resource-rich Arctic territory under Denmark’s autonomous control.Trump has escalated his confrontational foreign policy stance by deploying tariff threats against long-standing US allies within NATO, leveraging trade pressure in a dispute over sovereignty and control of Greenland.Trump has threatened eight opposing NATO members over the weekend, including France, Germany, and the UK, with a 10% tariff from 1 February, rising to 25% in June, unless they agree to facilitate a US purchase of Greenland.EU is in discussion of additional retaliation measures against US In retaliation, the EU looks set to void the US-EU trade truce deal agreed last year, as France plans to push the EU to activate its most powerful trade retaliation tool, the anti-coercion instrument, to be used for the first time against the US.All in all, EU officials have aimed to introduce more retaliatory measures, such as new taxes on tech companies or targeted curbs on investments in the EU, beyond the earlier suspended tariffs on 93 billion euros of US products, to counter the US’s pressure on Greenland.To add fuel to the fire, key US White House officials have continued to back Trump, with the US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated that the US will not back down on taking over Greenland, citing that the EU is too weak to ensure its security.The first reaction is a risk-off sentiment in today’s Asia session at the start of a brand-new trading week, where major Asia Pacific stock markets traded lower, including Japan’s Nikkei 225, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped by 0.6% and 1% in line with the intraday losses of 1% to 1.3% seen on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures at the time of writing.The US dollar does not benefit from this current episode of risk-off as the “debasement trade” narrative takes hold due to the latest US foreign policy towards its European allies, as traders shifted demand towards safe-haven precious metals. The US Dollar Index dropped by -0.2% intraday, while gold and silver rocketed by 1.6% and 3.5% respectively to hit fresh record highs.Here are five intraday (hourly) technical setups on key cross-assets (Nasdaq 100, Hang Seng Index, Germany DAX, Gold & Silver) to watch as the trading session unfolds today in the aftermath of the US trade tariffs threat towards the EU.Nasdaq 100 bearish breakdown below 20-day and 50-day moving averages zoom_out_map Fig. 1: US Nasdaq 100 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index (a proxy of the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures) have tumbled below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, as well as the ascending channel support from the 21 November 2025 low.These latest observations suggest that the earlier medium-term uptrend phase of the US Nasdaq 100 CFD index has been damaged and the likely control shifted back to the bears at least in the near-term (see Fig. 1).Watch the 25,550 key short-term pivotal resistance (also the gapped down formed at the start of today’s Asian session and the 20-day moving average) to maintain the short-term bearish bias to expose the next intermediate supports at 25,133, and 24,870 (close to 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor up move from 18 December 2025 low to 13 January 2026 high).On the other hand, a clearance and an hourly close above 25,550 invalidates the bearish tone for a retest on the stubborn range resistance of 25,760/25,830 in place since 8 December 2025.Minor mean reversion decline in progress for the Hang Seng Index zoom_out_map Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The medium-term uptrend of the Hong Kong 33 CFD index (a proxy of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures) remains intact as price actions continue to oscillate above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages.Right now, the recent three bearish reactions from its recent minor range resistance of 27,175 from 13 January to 16 January 2026 have skewed the bias for a potential minor mean reversion decline scenario to seek a retracement back to retest the area around the 20-day and 50-day moving averages (see Fig. 2).Watch the 26,870 key short-term pivotal resistance to expose the next intermediate supports at 26,330, 26,220 (also the 20-day moving average), and even 26,045 (also the 50-day moving average).On the flip side, a clearance and an hourly close above 26,870 negates the bearish tone for a retest on the 27,175 minor range resistance in the first step.Germany's DAX broke below last week’s low, on track towards 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 3: Germany 30 CFD index minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The Germany 30 CFD index (a proxy of the DAX futures) gapped down and broke last week’s minor range support of 25,260.The odds are now skewed towards a minor mean reversion decline towards its 20-day moving average and the medium-term ascending trendline in place from the 21 November 2025 low.Overall, the medium-term uptrend remains intact with potential intraday weakness in the first step before a renewed bullish move materializes.Watch the 25,260 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential intraday drop to expose the next intermediate supports at 24,860 and 24,760/24,670 (also the 20-day moving average) (see Fig. 3).However, clearance and an hourly close above 25,260 invalidates the bearish tone to seek a retest on the current all-time high area of 25,505, and above it sets sight on the next immediate resistance at 25,800 (Fibonacci extension).Gold (XAU/USD) bullish acceleration mode zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The current price actions of Gold (XAU/USD) gapped up at the opening of today’s Asian session with a parallel bullish breakout above its former descending trendline resistance seen on its hourly RSI momentum indicator.These observations suggest a potential minor bullish acceleration phase for Gold (XAU/USD). Watch the US$4,595 key short-term pivotal support; a clearance above US$4,684/4,687 near-term resistance opens scope for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$4,720 and US$4,774/4,780 (see Fig. 4).On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below US$4,595 negates the bearish tone for a minor corrective decline towards its 20-day moving average, exposing the next intermediate supports at US$4,560/4,550 and US$4,512.Silver (XAG/USD) relentless uptrend remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 5: Silver (XAG/USD) minor trend of 19 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the US$86.26 key short-term pivotal support on Silver (XAG/USD) to maintain a potential direct intraday rise scenario for the next intermediate resistances to come in at US$94.60/95.81 and US$98.74/99.47 (also the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel) (see Fig. 5).On the flip side, failure to hold at US$86.26 and an hourly close below it negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline towards the medium-term pivotal support area of US$81.70/78.84 (also the 20-day moving average). Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 16Today marked another strange session with stock indexes fluctuating significantly before closing the week virtually unchanged. This indicates that traders are unsure how to position themselves ahead of potential volatility over the weekend. Geopolitical events often occur on weekends, which keeps anxiety high for the Monday open and explains the focus on weekend risk.Before this large rally, Gold would have been an obvious safe haven. However, the Bullion closed down 0.70% today, while other metals saw drops of up to 4%. US Treasuries surely were not bid today in expectation for this weekend risk (30Y US Bond down -0.50%)The Dow Jones fell 0.2%, while the Russell 2000 rose as US credit spreads reached their lowest levels since 2007. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed flat. Some analysts are warning about these ultra-low spreads, but no structural cracks are showing yet. zoom_out_map Corporate Bond Credit Spreads – Source: Bloomberg Uncertainty remains high as evidenced by the rangebound trading across asset classes. Keep a close eye on the headlines. Discover:Markets enter Tension-Mode – Markets Weekly OutlookStocks trade in uncertain territories – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookWhy is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewStock Market Heatmap – A confused Stocks Board zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 16, 2026 Producer Manufacturing firms have remained solid but for the rest, there has been virtually no sector trend today. Expect a lot of volatility next week.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView Today's action reflects a confused but uncertain Market as most assets finish down except for Oil (the true but risky hedge against Middle East geopolitical risk).Cryptos are rebounding suddenly at the weekly close, as traders head back into the asset class.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 16, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Today marked yet another low volatility FX session with the JPY leading and the AUD on the other side.FX movements have been largely rangebound since 2026 – Keep a close eye on the US Dollar as it shows some signs of weakness but could also get bid in the event of a US Intervention.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this Weekend and Monday's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. The week kicks off with a heavy Asia focus. China releases a full macro package on Sunday night, with Q4 GDP, industrial production, and retail sales setting the tone for global risk sentiment. Australia’s TD-MI inflation gauge follows, offering an early inflation signal for the RBA outlook.Monday shifts attention to Europe and North America. Eurozone inflation data (headline and core) will be key for ECB rate expectations, while Canada delivers a full CPI print.The session wraps with New Zealand business sentiment and a closely watched PBoC rate decision. Monday also begins a packed Central Bank week with the Davos Economic Meeting starting.This evening also begins the Fed Blackout Period.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Discover our Weekly Market Outlook, exploring themes and events that forged financial flows throughout the week.This week was forged by volatility amid growing political and geopolitical pressures.Get ready for next week's action by exploring upcoming events across global Markets.Week in review – Geopolitical turmoil pursues The week opened on a nasty surprise:Donald Trump attempted another attack on Jerome Powell, starting an investigation through the Department of Justice against the Federal Reserve Chair.Jerome Powell quickly responded in an unusual address (for an unusual issue), published on Sunday evening.Fortunately, the effect was not long-lasting for the Stock Markets, as reactions to defend the Head of the Central Bank were widespread, spanning from bankers around the world to Republican officials lifting shields against attacks that were going too far.This naturally led to a massive rebound before the CPI data (after a prior drop in the overnight futures session) – And the Market was proven right.First, it seems this investigation will not go very far, given the Senate's heavy backing of the Fed Chair.Second, the CPI, which followed on Tuesday, did not surprise to the upside and even led to a positive surprise on the Year-over-year Core CPI measure (at 2.6% ~ still high but far from scary.)Third, the event might provide even more reasons for Jerome Powell to remain at the Fed as Governor after his term (as Chair) expires in May. His term as Governor could extend for two more years, and with the resilience he has shown amid these attacks, it wouldn't be surprising to see him stand as an independent voice in an ever-more politicized Federal Reserve.The issue is that other elements that had been looming over Markets since the end of December have disrupted the positive sentiment. Revolts in Iran are continuing, and as the President pledged to fight injustices around the world, he threatened the Regime to intervene, which added further investor angst.There is an estimated and very tragic +12,000 casualties from brutal repressions from the IRGC and Basij forces.Oil added a substantial premium, reflecting a larger risk premium, rising 10% from the past week to $62. zoom_out_map 30M WTI Oil Chart, January 16, 2025 – Source: TradingView Stock Indexes, on the other hand, suffered strong drops but rallied back as the President called off the intervention, saying "the killing has stopped" in Iran.Oil also corrected back sharply to the low $59 – A risk premium remains in the Market, albeit not a huge one (I invite you to discover why with our in-depth Oil Analysis).With the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln, a massive American warship heading to the Middle East, this story could not be entirely over. So keep a close eye on these developments throughout next week.Weekly Performance across Asset Classes zoom_out_map Weekly Asset Performance – January 16, 2026 – Source: TradingView You can see how volatile this week was, particularly on Wednesday as intervention fears peaked.The surprising winners here were Cryptocurrencies which had been waiting for catalysts to rise again after staying dormant for couple months.Silver also reached some new all-time highs to $96! And despite its fall in today's session, concludes the week up 9%. But this is not surprising anymore.Keep an eye on weakness in the Metals market as the trade reaches a key inflexion point.For the rest, you can see how confused Investors are for traditional assets, closing the week largely unchanged for the most part (even Oil after a tumultuous week). Discover More:Stocks trade in uncertain territories – Dow Jones and US Stock Index OutlookWhy is the US Dollar so strong to start 2026? EUR/USD and Dollar Index overviewChart Alert: Japanese yen short squeeze risk,158.15 key USD/JPY triggerThe Week Ahead – Davos, Inflation Week and Elevated SpiritsAsia Pacific Markets – Chinese GDP and Bank of Japan After a massive Chinese Trade Data release, beating their record exports (to $1.2T) despite US tariffs, Investors will be watching closely for the Chinese GDP data, where yearly measures will be published. The release is planned for Sunday evening.This will also be followed by the PBoC Rate Decision on Monday.Antipodean releases will also add more complexity to next week's action (as US data is largely absent).For Australia, traders will await the Inflation Gauge data, Employment Data, and PMIs from Sunday to Thursday.New Zealand will release key Business Performance data on Monday, followed by its own CPI data on Thursday afternoon.But the most significant event for APAC trading will surely be the Bank of Japan Rate Decision on Thursday Evening (between 19:00 and 21:00, with no fixed release time per tradition).No hike is expected for this meeting (Currently about 2 more hikes priced in for the year) – But harsh communications are awaited to defend the Yen as the BoJ gets increasingly frustrated from Inflation coming from their weakening currency.Failing to communicate would surely rub salt in the wound.Of course, keep an option for a surprise hike.Europe and UK Markets – Davos Meeting in Switzerland and CPI This week will see some high-tier economic events, starting on Monday with the Davos World Economic Forum, where Central Bank heads, Presidents and Bankers exchange opinions on a yearly basis.Expect tons of Central Bank speeches.The UK will finally release their Employment Data on the Monday-to-Tuesday night trading (at 2:00 A.M).The Unemployment Rate is expected to correct to 5% with unofficial forecasts for a -25K release.*I mistakenly said the UK Jobs data was supposed to be released this week in our past week Weekly Outlook. Pardon me for that if you may.For the Eurozone, expect CPI data on Monday at 5:00 A.M, PPI data for Germany, and many PMI figures on Thursday.North American Markets – Canadian CPI and US GDP Figures The week will be much thinner for North American Markets, concentrated around the end of the week.The exception will be for Canada which releases their Inflation data on Monday (8:30 A.M) which could either cement odds of a 2026 hike or push them away.If you just look at expectations, that hike won't go too far – The consensus for the Headline data is at -0.4%!Except for the Weekly ADP Employment report, there won't be much until Thursday.American data will release GDP data expected to remain very high (4.3% annualized), combined with the Core PCE release at 10:00 A.M. the same day.Friday should also be packed for NA Traders, with Canadian Retail Sales, Global PMI data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment spanning the entire morning session.The Fed also enters its pre-FOMC Blackout Period (The meeting is on January 28, no rate cuts expected).Finally, keep your notifications on for the geopolitical scene: Iran developments should continue to impact Oil and Global markets.Next Week's High Tier Economic Events zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for additional Market News, Insights and Interactions @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (16/01/2026): In the last episode of week 3, TraderNick and podcast host Jonny Hart discuss the ongoing geopolitical themes at play within financial markets, as well as recent yen weakness and policy from the Bank of Japan. Join Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for January 15Today's session was positive compared to yesterday as the late rally continued. The Trump administration quickly moved to new tariff deals after calling off the Iran intervention – Diplomats from Taiwan and the US agreed to a 15% tariff rate in exchange for a $500B investment pledge.It remains difficult to estimate if the Iran intervention will materialize as conflicting signs emerge. The extensive communication regarding the potential attack made the event predictable. The administration is also debating whether an intervention would successfully achieve regime change, as the US aims to avoid a situation similar to Iraq more than 20 years later. However, the USS Abraham Lincoln is still traveling to the Middle East from the South China Sea and should arrive in a few days.Internet access in Iran has been cut for over 170 hours and casualties are extremely numerous (some estimates are above +12,000).Betting markets currently still imply a 40% chance of US intervention before January 31, rising from 30% this morning. zoom_out_map Betting Odds of a US intervention in Iran – Source: Polymarket Equities and Oil have largely reversed the fear-driven moves from yesterday. Oil fell 5% from its $62 peak and equities returned to recent highs in a single session.Time will tell if this reflects complacency from ever-hungry dip-buyers. Only time will tell.One thing is for sure, Investors are easily disregarding geopolitical noise these days.The largest part of the 2025 rally came after the 12-Day War, so precedent is on the Bulls side.Tomorrow's session will be interesting with weekend risk approaching. Discover:Anxiety is rising in Markets – North American mid-week Market updateMetals correct: Is the uptrend over? Silver (XAG/USD), Gold (XAU/USD) and Copper (XCU/USD) OutlookWTI Oil sinks as Iran tensions abate – Where to look now?Stock Market Heatmap – Nvidia leads Semiconductors zoom_out_map Market Close Heatmap – Source: TradingView – January 15, 2026 Except for semiconductors and Industrials rising, the picture is still fairly mixed, expressing a confusing or at least uncertain view for Stocks.Cross-Assets Daily Performance zoom_out_map Cross-Asset Daily Performance, January 15, 2026 – Source: TradingView Cryptocurrencies are decorrelating quite remarkably from Stocks as of late, with them seemingly only appreciating when Indexes correct.The real outperformer, to the downside, naturally is Black Gold which took quite a hit after the calmer Middle East tensions. The Iran Premium remains until ~$58.50 which should stay relatively bid until that theme really goes away.Apart from these classes, the US dollar really stands out this week, also pushing US treasuries higher as Metals see a first rough session since beginning 2026. Get access to our latest in-detail piece to learn why.A picture of today's performance for major currencies zoom_out_map Currency Performance, January 15, 2026 – Source: OANDA Labs Except for the AUD, JPY and USD, the rest of the FX space has been quite dull.About the Aussie, it has been rising quite strongly from its correlation with the much better Chinese data and bouncing further from the better risk-sentiment in today's session.On the other side of the performance chart, the Pound got sold off despite its decent GDP numbers, as traders capitalize from the 4,000 pips rally in GBP/USD and even greater gains against the JPY for example.Keep a close eye on the recent US Dollar strength for clues.A look at Economic data releasing throughout this tonight and tomorrow's sessions zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Once again, tomorrow will see a very thin calendar which leaves space for headlines. Euro traders will focus on German Industrial production for Euro clues as EUR/USD still moves in a relative downtrend.For the rest, expect to see FedSpeak surprise as Sunday afternoon will mark the beginning of the Fed Blackout Period.Safe Trades, keep a close eye on Middle East developments!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.