Venezuela’s production capacity remains capped near 1 million barrels per day, far below historical levels.Sanctions, degraded infrastructure, and political risk prevent a rapid supply rebound.Heavy, high-sulfur crude requires high prices and massive investment to be economically viable.Venezuela’s oil is a long-term strategic option, not a near-term supply shock. Global oil prices have reacted only marginally to Venezuela’s political transition, reflecting a market consensus that the country will not deliver a meaningful increase in crude supply in the near future. While Venezuela holds vast oil reserves, investors remain focused on practical constraints—limited production capacity, deteriorated infrastructure, and weak investment economics—which prevent any rapid supply response.Production capacity remains severely limited At present, Venezuela’s effective production capacity is estimated at around 1 million barrels per day, only slightly above current output and far below the roughly 2.5 million barrels per day produced a decade ago. Years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and international sanctions have left the oil sector unable to scale up quickly. Recent U.S. actions have reinforced these limits: sanctions on shipping reduced exports to about 500,000 barrels per day, forcing production cuts as storage filled up. Even proposals for the U.S. to purchase oil held in floating storage would ease logistical pressures rather than unlock new supply.Weak investment economics and high costs Some modest recovery is possible if sanctions are eased and the United States becomes a stable buyer. Smaller, risk-tolerant producers could restart marginal fields, potentially lifting output by around 300,000 barrels per day over the next two to three years. This would bring production toward roughly 1.4 million barrels per day—still insufficient to influence a global market consuming more than 100 million barrels per day.Structural and economic barriers remain substantial. Venezuela’s heavy, high-sulfur crude requires costly extraction, blending, and specialized refining, resulting in persistent discounts to benchmarks such as WTI. Estimates suggest break-even prices could approach USD 80 per barrel, making large-scale investment unattractive at current price levels. Rebuilding the sector would require around USD 100 billion in total investment, with annual spending of roughly USD 12 billion needed for decades to return production toward 3 million barrels per day—likely not before around 2040.Long-term strategic value, limited near-term impact Political risk further discourages major oil companies. A history of nationalization, contract revisions, and unresolved arbitration claims has left international producers wary of committing capital without strong legal and fiscal guarantees. While Chevron has maintained a limited presence, most large Western firms remain cautious.Against this backdrop, U.S. interest in Venezuela’s oil appears driven less by immediate market needs and more by long-term strategy. With U.S. shale output expected to plateau later this decade and other Western Hemisphere producers peaking in the early 2030s, future supply constraints are becoming a growing concern. Global oil demand continues to rise, and maintaining current production levels will require massive ongoing investment worldwide.In this context, Venezuela represents a long-duration strategic option rather than a near-term supply shock. Its oil resources could matter in the 2030s if prices rise significantly and political conditions stabilize, but for now, structural limitations explain why markets have largely shrugged off recent developments.Technical perspective zoom_out_map Daily chart of the CFD contract based on Brent crude oil prices, source: TradingView At present, Brent crude prices are rising dynamically and approaching the area of USD 63.5 per barrel. For now, the USD 59 level has proven to be a fairly strong support zone, with lows in this area recorded in mid-December 2025 as well as earlier in April and May. This support has so far prevented a deeper decline, and with a relatively high probability, prices may continue to move higher in the short term. Technical resistance is located around USD 65–65.5 per barrel, with the next major resistance near USD 70. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: When the radar goes dark: Navigating the market after the COT report delayThe first major economic release of 2026 arrives this Friday, January 9, at 8:30 AM ET. Following a year of significant volatility marked by a federal government shutdown and a series of interest rate cuts, this Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be the definitive barometer for whether the Federal Reserve’s recent easing cycle was a masterstroke or a premature reaction to a cooling labor market.Risks Heading into the Release The primary risk remains data noise. Residual effects from the late-2025 government shutdown continue to cloud the "true" hiring trend. Additionally, significant downward revisions to October and November figures could overshadow a decent December headline, painting a bleaker picture of the quarter's momentum.Market participants are also wary of a potential "January Effect," where rebalancing and new-year optimism collide with high-stakes data.Lastly there is the growing pressure on Jerome Powell in what will be one of his last meetings as Fed Chair. Comments from Stephen Miran on Thursday may be a sign of what Powell's successor would bring as they would be appointees of the current administration.Miran said he is looking at 150 bps of rate cuts through 2026, to boost the labor market. That is quite a stark contrast to what the Fed is currently pricing.The Consensus: A Moderate Recovery Economists are forecasting a modest rebound in hiring after months of data distortions. The consensus for December’s NFP sits at approximately 60,000 to 70,000 new jobs. This follows a November print of 64,000 and a catastrophic, shutdown-skewed October that saw over 100,000 jobs temporarily erased.While the headline hiring remains below historical norms of 100k+, the unemployment rate is expected to edge down to 4.5% (from 4.6%).This slight drop is largely attributed to furloughed federal workers returning to payrolls and a low rounding threshold in the household survey.Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) are forecast to rise 0.3% MoM (3.6% YoY), a level the Fed considers consistent with its long-term inflation goals. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Deviation from the Consensus: What It Means The Hawkish Beat (85k+): A surprise to the upside would suggest the labor market is far more resilient than the Fed’s recent 75bps of cuts implied. This would likely ignite a "good news is bad news" reaction, as traders would be forced to price out a March rate cut, fearing the Fed may have to pause or even reverse course to combat "sticky" inflation.The Dovish Miss (<50k): A sub-50k print would confirm fears of a "material" weakening in labor demand. This would validate the market's current pricing for at least two more cuts in 2026, reinforcing the narrative that the US is in a late-cycle expansion vulnerable to recession.Potential implications for the US Dollar Index (DXY) & Nasdaq 100 The market's reaction to the NFP report will not be uniform, but rather dependent on the deviation from consensus forecasts. These are the potential reactions we could see depending on how the data comes out and is received.The DXY is currently technically oversold and trades near key support levels. This creates an asymmetric upside risk. Because the market is already heavily positioned for a dovish Fed, a stronger-than-expected report (above 75k) could trigger a violent short-covering rally, driving the DXY back toward the 100 level. Only a significantly weak report would have the power to push the dollar toward fresh multi-year lows.US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, January 9, 2026 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index enters this release on a knife’s edge. If the report hits the "Goldilocks" zone (moderate hiring with cooling wages), the Nasdaq could rally on the promise of continued Fed support. However, a strong NFP would likely spike yields, putting immediate pressure on high-valuation growth stocks. Conversely, a deep miss might initially support stocks via lower yields, but could quickly sour into a "growth scare" sell-off.Nasdaq 100 Four-Chart, January 9, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Outlook Moving Forward If Friday’s data confirms that hiring has bottomed out, the Fed may find its "soft landing." However, if the 3-month average continues to slide, the pressure on Jerome Powell and his potential successor to provide more aggressive liquidity will become the dominant market theme for the remainder of the quarter.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways: The 43-day COT report delay created a data vacuum, allowing "managed money" to build crowded, unseen market positions.The backfilled COT data caused a "positioning shock" in markets like soybeans, triggering sharp reversals as positions realigned.The lack of speculative sentiment data highlighted a major risk: market opacity significantly increases the chance of a "volatility explosion" upon the report's return.The 43-Day data vacuum: Unmasking the positioning shock in soybeans As a trader, operating without the Commitments of Traders (COT) report during the recent 43-day government shutdown felt like flying a plane through a thick fog without a radar. When the CFTC finally resumed operations on November 13, 2025, we were met with a massive data vacuum that had left speculative "managed money" to operate under the radar for over six weeks.The impact was immediately visible in the grains market; for instance, once the backfilled data started hitting the tape, we discovered a massive shift in soybeans, where funds had swung from a net short to a staggering net long of over 229,000 contracts. This "positioning shock" triggered sharp reversals as the market scrambled to realign with the reality of just how crowded those trades had become while the lights were off in Washington.The recovery process has been a lesson in patience and "detective work," as the CFTC opted to release the backlogged reports in chronological order rather than jumping to current dates. This meant that throughout late November and December, market participants were often trading based on snapshots that were weeks old, forcing us to rely on proxies like ETF flows, and the LME’s (London Metal Exchange) positioning data just to guess where the "big money" was leaning.While the Commission managed to accelerate the schedule to get us current by December 29, the lag effectively extended the period of market opacity. For those of us in the pits or behind the screens, the shutdown serves as a stark reminder: when the primary barometer for speculative sentiment goes dark, the risk of a "volatility explosion" upon its return becomes the single most important factor to hedge.Managed money vs. small speculators: Diverging net positions in soybean futures zoom_out_map Soybeans Chart 2023 - 2025 Source: COTbase.com Past perfomance is not indicative of future results The above chart displays a time series of net positions (Long minus Short) for key participant groups in the soybean futures market, which is crucial for gauging speculative sentiment and potential market turning points. The green trendline on the above chart shows the clear and aggressive swing in the Managed Money line. This is represented by the Managed Money line rapidly crossing above the zero line and spiking to the highest levels on the history axis, illustrating the sudden, crowded long trade that developed while the market was flying "without a radar." Ready to decode market positioning? Register now for our weekly recurring live technical analysis webinar, where we dive into the latest COT report and explore essential technical analysis tools for trading FX, commodities, and market indices. The red trendline shows small speculators were consistently selling or reducing positions while prices were moving higher, a common approach often seen on small speculators and/or retail traders in other markets such as FX trading. Interestingly, and as the price began to fall, their net position has trended back toward the zero line, suggesting "Small speculators" are covering shorts or attempting to catch a bottom as prices soften. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold was down as much as 1.2% before recovering to trade above the $4450/oz. The precious metal is still finding significant buying support on dips but does remain vulnerable if it does not breach the $4500/oz level.Geopolitics and US Data Geopolitical risk rears its head again as news came through earlier today that the US were going to seize another tanker out of Venezuela which was sporting a Russian flag. This has caused some concern about an escalation between the US and Venezuela as well as potentially Russia.The White House separately confirmed discussions about acquiring Greenland, including potential military involvement which is likely to keep safe haven demand in play as well.Further underpinning the precious metal was softer than expected employment data which continues to support further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. US job openings fell more than expected in November after rising marginally in October, while a separate ADP report showed that private payrolls increased less than expected in December.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the NFP data on Friday, January 9. This will likely have a major impact on rate cut expectations and thus could serve as a catalyst for gold's next big move.Gold does appear to still be volatile given the price action we saw today. So I would not rule out significant movement overnight in the Asian session.Tomorrow brings a batch of mid-tier US economic data that could spark some volatility. The key releases to watch include the initial jobless claims and the trade balance for goods and services. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The rally since the start of the week has failed to gain acceptance above the crucial $4500/oz level.The selloff today however, has run into a key area of support provided by the 50-day MA which rests at $4419/oz.Price has bounced and is now resting just around the $4450/oz handle, with the period-14 RSI also having bounced off the 50 level which hints at bullish momentum remaining in play.As things stand buyers remain in control with significant support to the downside. The ongoing geopolitical drama is also underpinning prices.This could all change with Friday's jobs data where a strong NFP print and a significant improvement in the unemployment rate could lead to a selloff which may threaten the $4400/oz handle.A move lower may look to retest the weekend gap which rests between the $4332-$4354/oz handles.Meanwhile, a move higher from here needs acceptance above the $4500/oz handle before a sustainable break of the current all-time high around $4550/oz becomes a possibility.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, January 7, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.Traders are officially getting back to work after a well-deserved winter holiday break. Hope that you all had wonderful Christmas and New Year celebrations.Markets are already getting what they wanted in terms of volatility and news with the capture of Venezuela's President/Dictator Nicolas Maduro, leading to significant gaps on the Monday open and massive rallies across all asset classes.With the Trump Administration following up the capture with threats to other Latin American countries like Colombia or Mexico, and even more deranging, threats to Greenland, we can expect quite an adventurous 2026 trading.This created a boost to the Freedom Trade, which added a significant boost to Stocks, pushing the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to new record highs and further driving demand for Metals, as safe-haven demand also makes considerable sense.Wall Street is loving these flows, in any case, with a sense of rebound in confidence in US strength, as US exceptionalism can even cross borders to protect US Interests.Banks and investors are uncertain about how to proceed with the new fundamental data, as the impact of the latest geopolitical developments has yet to be fully felt.This also combines with quite uncertain US inflation and economic outlooks, leaving a still cloudy picture of a Fed rate cut. zoom_out_map Rate Cut Pricing for the January Meeting – 10% Priced for now What’s certain is that Canada could face further challenges with Venezuela's Maduro capture. A reopened Venezuelan oil market offers alternatives to the Canada Western Select, a special class of heavy sour Crude Oil.You can learn more on this right here.The weekly open sent the Loonie struggling – You can see more on this further in the article.Adding to the uncertainty of the USMCA Agreement, traders can still expect volatility for the CAD and USD.Keep a close eye on headlines regarding the economic debates with news expected to release during the month. And don't forget that Markets are still awaiting a real US-Canada Trade deal.Let's dive right into our Mid-Week North American Markets recap. Read More:Oil on Discount: WTI Nosedives as Sellers Return to the Market, What's Next?Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data ReleasesChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextNorth-American Indices Performance zoom_out_map North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView Stocks have had quite a sweet Year-Beginning run.Most global Stock Indexes are up since the Yearly open, particularly after Monday's buying spree across US Benchmarks.Still, the US NFP is coming up on Friday which could put a brutal stop to the ongoing frenzy.Dollar Index 8H Chart zoom_out_map Dollar Index Daily Chart, January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView I invite you to check out our freshly release in-depth US Dollar Analysis where you can get access to trading levels, ideas and much more:What’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookUS Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map USD vs other Majors since last Monday, January 7, 2026 - Source: TradingView The performance for the US Dollar is very mixed – APAC Currencies, particularly the Antipodeans are taking the lead but FX trends have yet to materialize.Canadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors zoom_out_map CAD vs other Majors, January 7, 2026 - Source: TradingView. It seems that the Loonie is still quite hungover from its New Year's Eve.The Canadian Dollar is down against all of its major counterparts to start the year.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD zoom_out_map USD/CAD 4H Chart, January 7, 2026 – Source: TradingView USD/CAD is rallying quite strongly since forming its bottom around mid-December, supported by its uptrend.With the mean-reversion higher forming a Bearish RSI divergence, watch for a potential sell entry around the 4H 200-period MA, currently at 1.38570.A break of the upwards trendline can be used as confirmation.A close above on the session would on the other hand see a breakout to retest the 1.39-1.3925 August resistance.Levels of interest for USD/CAD:Resistance Levels4H 200 MA at 1.385701.38730 FOMC Highs1.39 to 1.3925 Support turned resistance1.40 Major ResistanceSupport Levels1.38 Handle Major Pivot +/- 150 pips1.3780 Trendline Mini-SupportAugust support 1.37501.3660 July Breakout support1.3550 Main 2025 SupportUS and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week zoom_out_map US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The end of the week is firmly centered on NA labor markets.Thursday opens with U.S. employment signals via Challenger job cuts and initial jobless claims, followed by Q3 productivity and unit labor cost data—useful inputs for gauging wage pressure and anticipate labor market dynamics heading into payrolls.Friday is the main event, with Canada and the U.S. releasing jobs data simultaneously (8:30 A.M.).In Canada, focus is on employment change, unemployment, and wage growth, with consensus pointing to a soft print after November’s strength.In the U.S., the full labor report hits at once: NonFarm Payrolls, unemployment, participation, underemployment, and earnings, alongside housing data.The session closes with preliminary Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, rounding out a data-heavy finish likely to set the tone for rates and FX into the following weeks. Keep an eye on developments for the US Dollar!Safe Trades and Much Success for 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After an initial inverse reaction—rising at the weekly open following the capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro—WTI oil prices are now correcting.The initial spike was fascinating, offering a potential blueprint for what we might expect in the event of a future Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. But why did oil go up on news that logically opens the door to more supply?It is the effect of an inverted "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News." Sanctioned nations like Russia and Venezuela have been forced to supply the market at deep discounts—recently reported as much as $20 below spot prices—to bypass restrictions. zoom_out_map Discounts in the Oil Market – X Post from Javier Blas When such nations regain official access to traditional markets, their competitive black market offers disappear. This effectively removes the "cheapest" barrels from the shadow market, creating a temporary perception of tightening or, at the very least, a volatility premium. – This argument is on the backline of why Oil has been going down ever since the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and could reverse at the resolution.The same logic applies to Iran, which is currently undergoing what resembles the beginning of a revolution. The anti-West axis (Iran, Venezuela, Russia) has historically created a drag on oil prices by flooding the market to fund their regimes, even with restricted access. This is the "Sanctions Paradox," which I gladly invite you all to read more about.In any case, the test of $59 was short-lived. Sellers came right back into action to mean-revert the rebound. While higher supply from a reopened Venezuela will eventually offer stiff competition to Canadian heavy crude, this infrastructure ramp-up will take time to materialize. Consequently, the current pullback is likely explained by the dissipation of that initial geopolitical volatility premium.But do sellers have enough momentum to push prices to fresh lows? It's possible, but there are structural elements pointing against it.Let's dive right into a multi-timeframe analysis of WTI Oil to see why. Read More:What’s Next for the US Dollar After the "Freedom Trade" Surge? – DXY OutlookMarkets Today: Euro Area Inflation Cools, Silver Peaks Above $80/oz, Gold Retreats Ahead of Key US Data ReleasesChart Alert: Gold (XAU/USD) is losing bullish momentum below US$4,500, bearish reversal nextUS Oil Intraday Timeframe AnalysisWTI 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map WTI Oil 4H Chart – January 7, 2026. Source: TradingView Looking at the ongoing price action, the swift selloff has seen mean-reversion buying at the $56.50 Support.When price action sees such sudden up and down reversals, it tends to offer strong rangebound setups for buy low, sell high setups.Still, retesting and breaking today's lows at $55.82 would reject this hypothesis.When traders are lost and looking for direction, ranges have high chance of forming. This takes even more ground when Moving Averages are flattening like on this chart.Look for buying at support ($56.40 to $56.50) and profit-taking/selling between $58 to $59.WTI Technical LevelsLevels to place on your WTI charts:Resistance Levels$57 to $58.00 Major Pivot$58.17 4H 200-MA$59 to $60 2021 Resistance and Channel HighsMinor Resistance $62 to $63Key September Resistance $65 to $66Support Levels$56.38 Weekly Open gap down$55.83 Session Lows$55 to $56.50 2025 Support and Channel lows2019 mini support $53 to $54Mid-2019 Main support $51 to $52.5030M Chart and Trading Setups zoom_out_map WTI Oil 30M Chart – January 7, 2026. Source: TradingView After the bouts of volatility from this morning, the action is calming down on shorter timeframes.Sellers are seeing some exhaustion at the session lows (coinciding with the 2025 lows support) – Still, the buying is timid and seeing rejection at the 30M 50-period MA.For the rangebound setup, traders can look at a break above the 50 MA to get confirmation with a potential stop below the session lows or 2025 lows for more conservative positions.Safe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Near-term bias turning bearish: Gold is struggling below the US$4,485–4,500 resistance zone, with price action signalling a potential short-term bearish reversal over the next 1–3 days.Momentum and retracement warning signs: The recent rebound has reached a key Fibonacci retracement and is accompanied by bearish RSI divergence, suggesting the move is likely a countertrend bounce rather than a fresh bullish impulse.Key levels to watch: A break below US$4,430/4,403 opens the door to deeper pullbacks toward US$4,333–4,309 and potentially US$4,267–4,243, while a clear break above US$4,500 would invalidate the bearish scenario.Short-term trend bias (1 to 3 days): Bearish reversal zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 7 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) Watch the key short-term pivotal resistance at US$4,485/4,500 for a potential minor bearish reversal in the first step for Gold (XAU/USD).A break below US$4,430/4,403 may expose further weakness towards the next intermediate supports at US$4,333/4,309, followed by the first medium-term support zone of US$4,267/4,243 (also the lower boundary of the medium-term ascending channel from 28 October 2025 low).Key elements to support the bearish bias The minor up moves of 5.3% from the 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 to today’s 7 January 2025 intraday high of US$4,500 have reached 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the prior corrective decline from its current all-time high printed on 26 December 2025 to 31 December 2025.The rally since Monday, January 5, 2025, has been accompanied by a bearish divergence condition, as indicated by the hourly RSI momentum indicator, which has reached its overbought region.These observations suggest that the rally from 31 December 2025 is likely to be a countertrend/mean reversion rebound rather than the start of a new bullish impulsive up move sequence for Gold (XAU/USD).Alternative trend bias (1 to days) A clearance above US$4,485/4,500 key short-term resistance invalidates the bearish reversal scenario on Gold (XAU/USD) that allows bulls to be in control again,Above the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560 sees the next intermediate resistance comes in at US$4,645 (Fibonacci extension and upper boundary of the medium-term ascending channel. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

After yesterday's explosive open, stocks are seeing a more muted yet remarkably consistent rally.With not much else, a single theme is dominating the price action: Wall Street is overwhelmingly approving of the recent US operations in Venezuela.If the rally were confined solely to energy stocks, it could be dismissed as a targeted sector play. However, with participation broadening across most sectors, the signal is one of renewed confidence in US policy, particularly with the US Dollar rallying back today.The narrative is shifting. The "America First" approach is no longer being viewed merely as isolationist, but as an aggressive strategy placing US interests at the front of the global stage.A mistake from most is to look at today's situation from the glance of the 2000 peace regime when one should look 100 to 200 years back.Traders are connecting the dots between the dismantling of Iran's nuclear capabilities, the tentative thawing of relations with Russia, and now, the intervention in Venezuela coupled with fresh warnings to other nations.President Trump appears to be resurrecting the Monroe Doctrine for the modern age—dubbed by many as the "Donroe Doctrine."With retail and institutional participants alike deploying their year-end bonuses and holiday capital into the markets, this geopolitical assertiveness is providing a powerful backdrop for equities to run higher. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (15:06 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 6, 2026 The current picture extends yesterday's broadly positive mood, with the largest names of Stock Markets (like Apple, Tesla or Google) struggling at the cost of virtually all the other sectors.Semiconductors, Healthcare and industrials are leading the Market picture, with Amazon also demarking itself after weeks of muted performance.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Silver (XAG/USD) Explodes to $80 and Platinum (XPT/USD) Tests its All-Time HighsBitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideDow Jones 4H Chart – 49,500 Reached! zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Dow is running higher again, powered by the general rally in traditional sectors.Once again, the Dow is on the front of the Freedom Rally – Now breaching the 49,500 psychological level, it will need to close around its highs to pursue its path higher.Watch for the overbought conditions which may trigger some slowdown in the buying – consolidation at the highs adds further chances of a continued breakout.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential Fibonacci Target 49,520 to 49,550Potential Fibonacci Target and Hourly Channel highs 50,15949,550 Session highs and Running50,000 Psychological Level and Higher timeframe Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsChristmas ATH as current pivot – 48,870 to 49,000November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Still not back to 100% zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The Nasdaq is catching up some momentum again despite its biggest names lagging, powered by huge performance in Softwares and Semiconductors.After breaking yesterday's triangle formation to the upside, Bulls will have to push beyond the resistance zone between 25,700 to 25,850.Nonetheless, the ongoing rally is strong and suggests further upside – At least until Thursday when traders prepare for the Non-Farm Payrolls report.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levelsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,500 Triangle formation highs (broken)Pivot 25,500 +/- 75 ptsPivot now Support 25,000 to 25,25024,500 Main supportEarly 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart – New Record! zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView The S&P 500 is officially breaking new record highs, powered by the ecstatic and widespread good mood in Wall Street.A further extension beyond the 6,950 record will be required for further confirmation of an All-time high run.For now, things are looking very positive to start 2026. Nevertheless, keep an eye on reactions ahead of the NFP report.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsDec 26 Christmas All Time-Highs 6,956 (breaking)1.382% Fib-Extension potential resistance at 7,001Support Levels6,910 4H 50-MA Support6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsSupport 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,400 Major psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

For traders returning to their desks after the mid-December break, the Metals complex has been the unmissable story, aggressively grabbing market share in investor portfolios even as volumes thinned out for year-end settlement.After a relatively calm consolidation period from October to late November, the catalyst for the next leg up arrived via a dovish pivot from NY Fed President Williams.His comments—early but later warranted by weaker inflation data and downward revisions to US labor numbers—rocked markets and reignited the "Dollar Diversification" trade.Initially, the rally was driven by rate cut expectations.The Year-end buying actually pushed prices to what resembled a short-squeeze around all metals as consecutive +5% average gains across the asset class were common theme just ahead of Christmas.When these narrative paused, geopolitical uncertainty took the baton—and that is exactly where we find ourselves today. zoom_out_map Metals Performance Since September 2025 – Source: TradingView The latest headline shocker arrived over the weekend with the sneaky (to say the least) capture of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro.While a US intervention in Venezuela had been priced in to some extent, the "sci-fi" nature of the execution caught markets off guard.The real accelerant for the renewed panic demand in metals wasn't the capture itself, but the aftermath.In post-operation interviews, President Trump renewed threats regarding Greenland, autonomous territory of Denmark (a NATO and EU member).This has triggered immediate concern regarding sovereign FX reserve diversification – A Major theme during 2025.Denmark, for instance, holds approximately $90 billion in foreign currency reserves, the majority of which are denominated in US Dollars. With diplomatic tensions rising, it is safe to assume the Danish government—and other nations watching closely—are actively looking for other solution.This is bringing yet another buying wave in Precious Metals, further driven higher by the influx of money from asset managers at the beginning of the year and confirming the end-of-December price extremes that took Gold, Silver, and Platinum to new all-time highs.Let's dive into an intraday timeframe analysis for Silver (XAG/USD) and Platinum (XPT/USD) as ongoing buying is catching steam. Read More:Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and SOL Rebound Strongly to Start 2026 – Crypto OverviewEUR/USD Forecast: Technicals and Seasonality Hint at Another Leg to the DownsideStock Markets Cheer Newfound Freedom to Begin 2026 — US Index Outlook zoom_out_map A look at the daily performance in Commodities, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView. XAG = Silver, XAU = Gold, XCU = Copper, XPT = Platinum, XPD = Palladium Platinum 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Platinum (XPT/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView It seems that our 2026 Metals Preview was timid in terms of targets looking at the current action.Having easily breached its 2008 preceding record during the holidays, Platinum kept on extending all the way to $2,500 where traders returning and profit-taking preceded a huge pullback.Looking at the chart, this is a picture break-retest of 2011 highs and of previous Channel bounds, mentioned in our late-December analysis.Keep an eye on the RSI – overall, the picture is looking very bullish and strong but buyers will have to exceed preceding highs with even more momentum to avoid the formation of divergences.For now, they are far from showing up and momentum is strong. I expect to see at least a test of the ATH or higher for Platinum.Platinum Technical Levels to keep on your charts:Resistance levels$2,450 to $2,525 Current All-Time HighsSession highs $2,420Potential Resistance at Fib Extension (1.382) $2,700 to $2,770Potential Resistance 2 at Fib Extension $2,900 to $3,000Support levels$2,200 to $2,300 2008 Momentum Pivot2011 All-Time Highs turned Support $1,900 to $1,9502013 and Current year highs $1,700 to $1,750$1,620 to $1,650 FOMC SupportMajor High Timeframe pivot $1,500 to $1,600Silver 4H Chart and Technical Levels zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) 4H Chart, January 6, 2026 – Source: TradingView Silver is going ballistic in today's action, up another 6%.The grey metal is once again caught up into waves of thinner supply and immense demand as beginning-year orders push up demand yet again, particularly with its positive seasonals.Immediate reactions will be interesting:Entering the $82 to $84 all-time High resistance Zone without slowing down (no dojis or red candles) indicates higher chances of a breakoutStalling at $84 could point to a double top – The way things have been, even double tops aren't enough to generate strong pullbacks, so this could point to a dip-to-buyFailure to breach $82 this week seems unlikely but would be a first sign of weakness for the metal.With Momentum and Volumes coming back to Market, continuation makes sense so keep an eye on potential new records or what happens if buyers fail to push prices all the way to there.$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance.On the higher timeframe, watch whether Silver holds its $75 Pivot Zone and upward trendline – $70 is the next support below.Levels to watch for Silver (XAG/USD) trading:Resistance Levels:$81.01 Session Highs$82 to $84 Current ATH Resistance$87 to $88 Potential Fibonacci Resistance$92 Potential Fibonacci Resistance 2Support Levels:$75 to $77 Immediate Bull/Bear PivotPsychological Support, Higher Timeframe Pivot $70 to $72Support $65 to $67 at Previous All-time Highs Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Macro tailwinds favour AUD: Improving China growth signals and still-elevated Australian inflation tilt the RBA toward a less dovish stance in early 2026, underpinning medium-term AUD/USD upside.Medium-term uptrend firmly established: AUD/USD has broken its long-term downtrend, is holding above the rising 20-day MA, and remains supported by a widening AU–US 2Y yield differential, with 0.6590 as the key medium-term support.Short-term bullish momentum constructive: A minor bullish breakout above 0.6720 opens scope for a push toward 0.6760–0.6800, as long as 0.6685 holds over the next 1–3 trading days. zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Annual performance of the US dollar against major currencies as of 31 Dec 2025 (Source: TradingView) The Australian dollar delivered a strong performance in 2025, finishing the year with a 7.2% gain against the US dollar. This placed it among the top-performing major currencies, trailing only the euro (+11.8%) and the Swiss franc (+12.5%) versus the greenback (see Fig. 1).Since the 21 November 2025 low of 0.6421, the AUD/USD recorded a gain of close to 5% as of Tuesday, 6 January 2025, at the time of writing, to print an intraday value of 0.6730.Twin drivers: China’s improving economic prospects and Australia’s rising inflation trend The macro factors that are supporting the ongoing medium-term (multi-week) bullish momentum in the AUD/USD are, firstly, an improving economic backdrop in China, where the official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in December 2025, surpassing both November’s reading and expectations of 49.2. It marked the first expansion in factory activity in China since March 2025Secondly, Australia’s inflation trend has started to accelerate since June 2025, as the trimmed mean CPI jumped to 3.3% y/y in October 2025 from June’s print of 2.8% y/y and September’s print of 3.2%. Even though, the consensus for December 2025’s trimmed mean CPI that is released on Wednesday, 7 January, is expected to cool down slightly to 3.1% y/y but it is still higher that RBA’s desired long-term inflation target of 2%-3%.Hence, an improving macro backdrop from China, which is Australia’s major trading partner and domestic inflation trend remains elevated, the odds are skewed towards a less dovish RBA’s monetary policy stance at least in the first quarter of 2026, which is likely going to be supportive for the AUD/USD to springboard to higher highs.Let’s now dissect the directional bias of the AUD/USD from a technical analysis perspective.AUD/USD medium-term uptrend supported by a bullish reversal from 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 2: AUD/USD medium-term & major trends as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The AUD/USD has staged a major bullish breakout on 5 December 2025 from its former long-term secular descending trendline that capped previous rallies since the 25 February 2021 high.The positive developments have indicated that the medium-term range configuration from 24 April 2025 to 21 November 2025 is likely to have ended, and the AUD/USD’s trend has now transited to a medium-term up trend phase since the 21 November 2025’s key inflection low of 0.6421 (see Fig. 2).The latest price actions of the AUD/USD have managed to trade above its rising 20-day moving average, which is acting as a key intermediate support at around 0.6660, where it staged a rebound on 2 January 2026 and on Monday, 5 January 2026.In addition, the 2-year yield premium between Australian sovereign bonds and US Treasury notes has continued to widen to 0.60% at the time of writing from 0.10% printed on 19 November 2025.These positive observations on the Australian dollar reinforce the ongoing medium-term uptrend phase for the AUD/USD with its key medium-term pivotal support at 0.6590.AUD/USD minor bullish acceleration towards 0.6760 and 0.6800 zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend as of 6 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) We now turn to the key technical levels and short-term intraday signals to define the prevailing trend bias over the next one to three trading days.Based on the hourly chart, the AUD/USD has just staged a bullish breakout from a former minor range resistance of 0.6718/0.6727 in place since 29 December 2025.This minor bullish breakout is likely to have solidified the start of another potential leg of an impulsive up move sequence for the AUD/USD (see Fig. 3).Watch the 0.6685 key short-term pivotal support (also the minor ascending channel support from 21 November 2025 low) to maintain the bullish bias on the AUD/USD for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 0.6760 and 0.6800 in the first step.However, failure to hold at 0.6685 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective slide to retest the 20-day moving average that is acting as the second-level key short-term support at 0.6660. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most traders are now back in rhythm after a long but well-deserved Winter holiday break.2025 has been a particularly adventurous rollercoaster, marked by the most volatility across asset classes in the year. Debasement trades, de-dollarization, AI, wars, Trump dramas, and TACOs, crypto ups and downs, and much more – trends, volatile ranges, and breakouts defined a much more active yearly session after years of doubt, as traders and asset managers agreed on the same principles.Risk assets were cheap, particularly after Liberation Day, so everyone went in – Valuations are now getting elevated, but the limit could still be far. zoom_out_map Global Stock Markets Performance in 2025 – Source: TradingView Markets received some pessimistic signs from the ISM Manufacturing PMI report, but when examining the current Market picture, traders are uniting behind hopes of more rate cuts. The answer to this should be confirmed further on Friday with the upcoming NFP report (8:30 A.M.).Another prospect boosting sentiment is the return of a proactive American foreign policy, for the US' own advantage – The capture of Venezuela's Maduro brings back Imperialism on the menu.Even if wars tend to dampen sentiment, the effect is often short-lived as investors learnt how profitable they are for US companies. But overall, the vibe from the Market is one of Freedom. Venezuelans seem to be content with the situation (from what we can see), and Americans are proud. Investors will hope this positive sentiment endures, while traders can simply rejoice from the volatility.Let's dive into our daily intra-session charts and trading levels for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (13:30 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 5, 2025 Read More:2026 US Dollar Forecast: How the Fed, Government Spending, and AI Will Drive VolatilityMarket Implications for Venezuela President Maduro's Capture – WTI Oil and Dow Jones to New Highs!Top Economic and Geopolitical Themes to Watch for Markets and Traders in 2026Dow Jones 2H Chart – Double Top broken zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bulls came in hungry to start the year, pushing the Industrial Index to new All-Time Highs once again. A very positive sign to undo the January 2 drops, but even more when considering that buyers broke above a preceding double top. This can be a sweet sign for a breakout (as short-sellers get caught and have to buy-back their positions higher). This effect can be short-lived but still has a positive effect.On the very short-run, the buying could see some stalling as the RSI reaches overbought levels. Nevertheless, the daily candle is a huge one, so further upside could be warranted.In the event of a retracement, keep a close eye on the 48,800 to 49,000 for a break-retest scenario.Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsPotential mini-resistance around 49,300 (breaking) 1.382 Fib-ExtensionPotential Resistance from 49,420 to 49,50049,244 Session highs50,000 Psychological Level and Higher timeframe Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsChristmas ATH as current pivot – 48,870 to 49,000 November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 mini-supportPsychological Support at 48,000Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 20045,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 2H Chart – Still not back to 100% zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The tech-heavy index has been struggling to return to its preceding record established in October (26,182), currently trading shy of 3% from there.Sellers are re-entering the field around the 25,500 resistance zone leading a triangle consolidation, a technical formation to keep your eyes on for future breakouts.The intra-day selloff has already occurred and some dip-buyers are entering the action at the 2H 200-MA. The action should be more balanced in the tech-index, so watch the session highs for a bullish breakout and a break below the 200-MA for a bearish pullback.Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 pts (recent rejection)intermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,400 200-period MA Support (immediate test)25,150 Triangle formation lowsPivot 25,000 to 25,250 Momentum pivot24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 2H Chart – Close to a breakout zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 2H Chart – January 5, 2025 – Source: TradingView The short-term bear channel formed from the December All-Time High peak is now seeing a breakout, leading to a bullish outlook.The 6,930 Psychological level is acting as short-term resistance (session highs).The RSI is not overbought yet but in any case, traders will need to watch whether buyers push to new highs (elevated breakout odds).For support, watch a return to the 2H 50-period MA. A break below would mark further downside potential.S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Heading into 2026, the US Dollar faces a complicated path driven by a conflict between the Federal Reserve and the government. While the Fed tries to stabilize the economy, the government is aggressively spending money through the new "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act.Experts predict a "V-shaped" year for the currency: the dollar is expected to weaken in the first six months, dropping from its current level of 99.00 down to around 94.00, as the Fed cuts interest rates to protect jobs.However, this dip should be temporary. By the second half of the year, the effects of the new government spending and trade tariffs will likely boost inflation, forcing interest rates back up and pushing the dollar back to or even above its starting level. Despite this predicted rebound, the dollar faces significant risks, including potential political fights over the debt limit, the possibility of the AI stock bubble bursting, and challenges from rival nations in the BRICS alliance. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda The Macroeconomic Landscape: A Tale of Two Halves Uneven Economic Growth (US vs. Europe) The U.S. economy is expected to outperform the rest of the world in 2026, though the growth will happen in two distinct phases. The year will likely start slowly as the lingering effects of high interest rates drag down spending, but the economy is projected to rebound strongly in the second half as new government stimulus kicks in. This temporary "soft patch" early in the year will allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which may briefly weaken the dollar.In contrast, Europe is facing stagnation and deep structural issues, forcing the European Central Bank to cut rates even more aggressively. Ultimately, the gap between a robust US and a weak Europe will provide long-term support for the dollar.The AI Investment Boom A massive wave of spending on Artificial Intelligence is acting as a safety net for the US economy. With up to $3 trillion projected to be spent on data centers and tech infrastructure, this boom is creating jobs and demand even as traditional manufacturing slows down. Since the tech giants driving this spending like Microsoft and Google are American, global investors continue to pour money into US markets. This constant flow of capital creates a "floor" for the dollar, keeping it relatively strong. However, relying so heavily on a single industry does create a significant risk if the tech sector suddenly stumbles.Inflation and Tariff Shocks While inflation was originally expected to fall to 2.4% in 2026, new trade policies could reverse that trend. The proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs, which include a 10% tax on imports, are expected to push prices up by an additional 1% to 1.5%. This creates a difficult scenario where growth might slow down while prices remain high ("stagflation"). Because the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates higher to fight this tariff-induced inflation, the dollar is likely to strengthen as higher rates attract foreign investors.Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve’s High Wire Act The Fed vs. The Market The Federal Reserve is currently walking a tightrope. Although they cut interest rates slightly at the end of 2025, they sent a "tough" message that they aren't ready to lower them much further.There is now a major disagreement between the Fed and investors: the Fed plans to keep rates relatively high (around 3.4%) through the end of 2026 to keep inflation in check, while investors are betting on deeper cuts (down to 3.0%) to help the economy. This gap between what the Fed plans to do and what the market expects will likely cause the dollar's value to jump up and down significantly.A Year of Two Halves Most experts predict that 2026 will play out in two distinct phases. In the first half of the year, the economy is expected to look weak, which will likely force the Fed to cut interest rates earlier than planned (possibly in January and April) to protect jobs. This would temporarily push the value of the dollar down.However, in the second half of the year, new government stimulus and trade tariffs are expected to heat up inflation again. This will force the Fed to stop cutting rates while other countries continue to cut theirs, making the dollar strong again by the end of the year.Higher Rates are Here to Stay Underlying all of this is a structural change in the economy. Economists believe the "neutral" interest rate, the sweet spot where the economy runs smoothly, is permanently higher now than it was before the pandemic, meaning rates won't return to rock-bottom levels.Furthermore, because the US government is borrowing massive amounts of money, it must offer higher returns (yields) on its long-term bonds to attract lenders. These higher yields tend to attract foreign money, which provides a long-term safety net for the dollar's value.Fiscal Policy: The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Debt Dynamics Government Spending Saves the Day (Eventually) The "One Big Beautiful Bill" Act is a massive spending plan that extends tax cuts and creates new benefits. While this increases the national debt significantly, it acts as a powerful stimulus package. By the second half of 2026, the extra money from these tax cuts will flood into the economy, boosting growth and strengthening the dollar right when the economy needs it most.Borrowing More, But Attracting Cash To pay for these tax cuts, the US government must borrow huge amounts of money by selling bonds. Usually, having too much debt makes a country's currency look weak. However, because US bonds pay higher interest rates than those in Europe or Japan, global investors are expected to keep buying them. This constant demand for US bonds keeps money flowing into the dollar, keeping it strong despite the high debt levels.The Debt Limit Fight A major political risk returns on January 2, 2026, when the limit on how much the US government can borrow (the debt ceiling) kicks back in. The government can use emergency accounting tricks to keep running until the summer, but a political standoff is expected. Paradoxically, this drama often strengthens the dollar temporarily; when investors get scared by political fighting, they often rush to hold US cash as a "safe haven" until the crisis is resolved. zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Structural Risks: The Black Swan of 2026 About 26% of major investors believe the biggest risk in 2026 is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) crash. The concern is that companies are spending a massive $3 trillion on AI technology, but it might not generate enough profit to justify the cost. If big tech companies (the "Mag 7") fail to deliver results, their stock prices could collapse.This would hurt the US dollar in two ways: first, foreign investors would sell US stocks, driving the dollar down; second, if the crash causes a recession, the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates to zero, potentially crashing the dollar index below 90.Sovereign Debt Crisis With government debt at record highs worldwide, there is a risk of a financial crisis. A crisis in the US caused by excessive government spending (the "OBBBA" bill) would be a disaster, potentially destroying the dollar's reputation as a safe asset.However, experts think it is more likely that a debt crisis will hit Europe or developing nations instead. Paradoxically, if other countries face a crisis, investors will likely rush to buy US dollars for safety, making the dollar stronger.Major Currency Pairs Outlook zoom_out_map Source: Created by Zain Vawda Conclusion: The Resilient Greenback In short, the U.S. Dollar is expected to stay resilient in 2026, even if the ride gets bumpy. While the dollar might dip early in the year as the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it is supported by strong underlying forces that other countries simply cannot match. The massive new government spending bill ensures the US economy will grow faster than its rivals, keeping interest rates high and attracting investors. Furthermore, the U.S. advantage in AI technology and energy independence creates a solid safety net for the currency.Investors should expect a "check mark" pattern for the dollar this year: a temporary drop in the first six months, which will be a good chance to buy, followed by a strong recovery. In a world full of risks from wars to slow growth in Europe and China the US Dollar remains the best option available, or the "cleanest dirty shirt" in the laundry. The time of easy, calm markets is over; a new era of volatility and US strength has begun. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Market Insights Podcast (05/01/2026): Join Senior Market Analyst for Asia Pacific Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Key takeaways Risk assets resilient: Asian equities opened strongly despite heightened geopolitical risk from Venezuela, led by a sharp rally in Japan’s Nikkei, while US equity futures maintained short-term bullish momentum.Divergent cross-asset moves: Gold surged on safe-haven demand but is now stalling near resistance, while WTI crude weakened as supply expectations improved following potential US control of Venezuelan oil output.USD capped, FX mixed: The US dollar edged higher but remains below key resistance, with AUD/USD holding its minor uptrend as long as near-term supports stay intact. Asian stock markets have opened on a strong footing on Monday, 5 January, for the first full trading week of 2026, ignoring the potential geopolitical tension arising from the direct inland attack on Venezuela by the US over the weekend that led to the capture and swift removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, by US military forces.Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped by 3% to hit a 7-week high, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index traded almost unchanged, while China’s A50 staged an intraday rally of 1.25 at the time of writing.After the removal of Venezuela’s leader, Maduro, US President Trump has indicated that the US will “administer” Venezuela in the interim, without any definite timeline, and allow US oil and exploration companies to manage Venezuela’s oil fields, drawing parallels to a “Iraq 2.0” occupation.Meanwhile, in today’s Asian session, gold (XAU/USD) rallied by 1.8%, the US Dollar Index inched higher by 0.28%, and WTI crude oil slipped by 0.6% over supply fears from the removal of Venezuela’s oil sanctions by the US.Here are five intraday (hourly) technical setups on key cross-assets to watch as the trading session unfolds today in the aftermath of the US attack on Venezuelan soil.Japan 225 bullish breakout from short-term range zoom_out_map Fig. 1: Japan 225 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor choppy price actions of the Japan 225 CFD index (a proxy of the Nikkei 225 futures) seen from November 2025 to December 2025 are likely to have ended.Today’s bullish breakout above its former minor range resistance of 51,533 from the period of 4 November 2025 to 13 November 2025 has indicated the start of another potential bullish impulsive up move sequence for the Japan 225 CFD index (see Fig. 1).Watch the 50,985/50,718 short-term pivotal support on the Japan 225 CFD index to maintain the bullish momentum for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 52,136, and 52,775/53,045 (new all-time high zone defined by Fibonacci extension cluster).However, a break and an hourly close below 50,718 negates the bullish tone to open up scope for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support of 50,180 (also close to the 20-day and 50-day moving averages)US Wall Street 30’s minor bullish momentum remains intact zoom_out_map Fig. 2: US Wall Street 30 CFD index minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) managed to stage a minor bullish reversal last Friday, 2 January 2026, after a retest of its rising 20-day moving average.In addition, its hourly RSI momentum indicator has managed to shape a series of “higher lows” above the 50 level, which indicates potential short-term bullish momentum remains intact.If 47,870 short-term pivotal support continues to hold, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index may extend its up move above 48,480 to retest the current all-time high area of 48,770/48,870 in the first step (see Fig. 2).On the other hand, a break and an hourly close below 47,870 negates the bullish tone for a minor corrective decline to expose the next intermediate support at 47,530 (also close to the 50-day moving average).AUD/USD slipped 0.3% but still holds above 20-day MA support zoom_out_map Fig. 3: AUD/USD minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The price actions of the AUD/USD pulled back by -0.3% in today’s Asian session (Monday, 5 January), but it is still trading above its 20-day moving average and testing the lower boundary of its minor ascending channel from its 21 November 2025 low.These observations suggest the minor uptrend phase remains intact as long as the 0.6660 short-term pivotal support holds on the AUD/USD for retest on the 0.6720/0.6727 intermediate range resistance in the first step.On the flipside, a break below 0.6660 key minor support put the minor uptrend phase in jeopardy to trigger a minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate supports at 0.6630 and even 0.6660/0.6590 next (also close to the 50-day moving average).Gold (XAU/USD) intraday rally now at resistance zoom_out_map Fig. 4: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The minor up move seen in gold (XAU/USD) from its 31 December 2025 low of US$4,274 has reached an inflection resistance zone of US$4,403/US$4,430 (also defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor corrective decline from 26 December 2025 all-time high to 31 December 2025 low)Elliot Wave/Fibonacci analysis suggests the recent up move from 31 December 2025 is likely a minor mean reversion rebound, which suggests there is still downside risk lingering around for gold (XAU/USD).Watch the US$4,485 key short-term pivotal resistance on gold (XAU/USD) for a potential slide to retest the intermediate support of US$4,333/US$4,309 (today’s Asian session opening gap up and last Friday, 2 January, US session low) in the first step (see Fig. 4).However, a clearance above US$4,485 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the current all-time high of US$4,550/4,560.WTI crude bearish reaction at 20-day MA zoom_out_map Fig. 5: West Texas Oil minor trend of 5 Jan 2026 (Source: TradingView) The 7% rally seen on WTI crude from the 16 December swing low area of US$55.23 has fizzled out since last Friday, 2 January 2025, and today’s Asian session’s rejection right at the 20-day moving average that acted as a near-term resistance of US$57.98 suggests the bears are still in control (see Fig. 5).A break below US$56.80 may see a further intraday slide on WTI crude towards the next intermediate supports at US$55.75 and US$55.23.On the other hand, a clearance above US$58.76/59.18 short-term pivotal resistance invalidates the bearish bias for an extension of the corrective rebound to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at US$60.00 and US$60.56. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Traders are slowly getting back to their posts after a well-deserved Holiday break.Following a very positive futures trading session, the official Market open was marked by some repositioning flows from outperforming tech to defensive sectors. zoom_out_map Current picture for the Stock Market (12:50 P.M. ET) – Source: TradingView – January 2, 2025 A sign for the trading to come in 2026? Tough to say for now.Elevated valuations in the tech sector have been a recurring theme since mid-October. With rate cuts improving the financial positions of high-debt traditional industries, a particular attraction to Industrial and Energy stocks helps the Dow dominate the session.Not much is on the economic or geopolitic schedule, so let's dive into our daily intra-session charts for the major US Indexes: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500. Read More:Will the US Dollar make a comeback in 2026? DXY OutlookSilver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?Markets Today: FTSE 100 Breaches 10,000 Mark, Gold Rises 1.8% as UK House Prices Drop to 20-Month LowsDow Jones 4H Chart – Watch the double top zoom_out_map Dow Jones (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Dow Jones technical levels for trading:Resistance LevelsAll-time High resistance between 48,700 to 48,886Session highs 48,444November ATH 48,300 to 48,500, acting as resistance (testing)50,000 Psychological Level and Potential Fib Target (50,159)Support LevelsPsychological Pivot at 48,000Pre-NFP 47,500 to 47,650 (recent lows)Key Support 47,000 (+/- 150) and MA 200August highs and November Lows 45,71545,000 psychological level (next support and main for higher timeframe)Nasdaq 4H Chart – Struggling to regain its ATH zoom_out_map Nasdaq (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Nasdaq technical levels of interest:Resistance Levels25,227 daily highs to break for a bull breakoutMini-Resistance 25,500 +/- 75 ptsintermediate resistance 25,700 to 25,850 (recent highs)All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300Current ATH 26,283 (CFD)Support Levels25,050 Channel retest and 2H 50 MA24,500 Main supportOctober and November lows just below 24,000Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 SupportS&P 500 4H Chart – zoom_out_map S&P 500 (CFD) 4H Chart – January 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView S&P 500 technical levels of interest:Resistance LevelsRange High Resistance 6,880 to 6,9006,930 (current All Time-Highs)Weekly highs 6,896Mid Range 6,850ATH Resistance 6,900 to 6,930Support Levels6,800 Psychological Pivot and Range lowsMini-Support 6,720 to 6,750 (current test)Session lows 6,750Support 6,720 to 6,750 and 8H MA 506,490 to 6,512 Previous ATH October lows (recent lows)6,400 psychological supportSafe Trades and a Successful 2026!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Week in review The US stock markets started 2026 on a high note, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallying on the first trading day thanks to renewed investor confidence.Technology companies led the comeback, with giants like Nvidia and Broadcom posting strong gains after a few difficult days at the end of December. Although the market missed out on the traditional year-end "Santa Claus rally," the longer-term picture remains very strong; all three major indexes finished 2025 with double-digit growth, marking their third straight year of profits.Read More: Silver (XAG/USD): A major top or a correction before new highs?The Dow Jones specifically closed out the year with an eight-month winning streak, fueled largely by the exploding demand for artificial intelligence technology. On the FX front, the US dollar began 2026 with a slight recovery, rising 0.12% on Friday after a challenging performance last year.In contrast, the Euro slipped by 0.11% to $1.1732, hurt by news that European factory activity has dropped to a nine-month low. Despite this slow start, both the Euro and the British Pound, which also dipped slightly today are coming off their strongest annual gains since 2017.Overall trading activity remained quiet especially in the Asian session as markets in Japan and China were closed for the holiday.Commodities started the day eyeing a recovery following the recent selloff. Gold traded briefly above the $4400/oz before the precious metal wiped out the majority of its daily gains.Silver is down around the 1% mark on the day while Platinum is up just over 1%.Palladium has struggled but is eyeing a move into positive territory, finally. zoom_out_map Source:TradingView The Week Ahead The first full trading week of 2026 marks a sharp transition from the quiet holiday season to a busy schedule of critical economic reports. Market participants are moving on from a strong year where major US stock indexes rose between 16% and 20%, now facing an economy that feels unstable and uneven.The coming week will be dominated by the December US jobs report, manufacturing data from both the U.S. and Europe, and updates on how UK retailers performed over Christmas. These events are happening against a backdrop of stubborn inflation near 3% and growing worries about labor shortages and new trade tariffs.US Markets - Deciphering the "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" ParadigmThe main event for this week is the US employment report coming out on January 9, 2026.This follows a year where hiring gradually slowed down, and experts predict the economy added about 55,000 jobs in December similar to November's modest numbers.However, the way analysts interpret this data is changing significantly. J.P. Morgan notes that because of stricter immigration rules and an aging population, the economy now needs far fewer new jobs to keep unemployment stable. The number of jobs needed to maintain the status quo has dropped from 50,000 a month to as low as 15,000.Consequently, even a relatively low gain of 55,000 jobs would be strong enough to lower the unemployment rate, which is expected to dip from 4.6% to 4.5%The current "stagnant" job market where companies are neither hiring aggressively nor firing workers is largely due to business uncertainty caused by changing trade rules and a recent government shutdown.As a result, most new jobs in December are expected to come from stable industries like healthcare and shipping, while construction and manufacturing struggle under high costs. This cooling labor demand allowed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates late last year, bringing them to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%.While market participants do not expect another cut in January, there is currently a 50% chance of a cut in March.However, if the upcoming jobs report is surprisingly weak, it could spark fears of a recession and lead investors to bet on faster interest rate cuts.In the UK, in the United Kingdom, the first full week of January is synonymous with the "Golden Quarter" post-mortem. The retail sector, a cornerstone of the UK economy, faces a rigorous assessment through a series of trading updates from its most prominent entities: Next, Marks & Spencer, Tesco, and J Sainsbury.These reports will offer the first definitive look at how consumers responded to the festive season amidst a backdrop of rising employment costs and a potential "price war" in the grocery sector.This may have a bigger impact than usual on indices after the FTSE 100 passed the 10000 point mark for the first time this week.Asia Pacific MarketsIn the Asia-Pacific region, the week of January 4 is characterized by the return of full market participation following the extended New Year bank holidays in Japan.Market participants are closely monitoring the Bank of Japan this week. While the bank is expected to proceed cautiously, new wage data arriving on January 7 could speed up interest rate hikes if earnings are higher than expected, which would strengthen the Japanese Yen.Attention also turns to China, where inflation data released on January 9 is expected to highlight ongoing problems with falling factory prices. Before that, a key trade report on January 8 will show how well China is coping with global trade tensions; despite new export restrictions on steel and electric vehicles, experts still forecast a massive trade surplus of over $100 billion. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Week - S&P 500 From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 has seen a decent pullback over the last 5 trading days.This has brought the index close to a key confluence level where the 100-day MA and ascending trendline converge.This is around the 6800 handle and could see the index print a higher low before moving higher once more.If this level breaks, support may be found at 6675 and 6650 respectively.On the upside, resistance rests at 6900 before the all-time highs at 6950 comes into focus.S&P 500 Daily Chart, January 2, 2026 zoom_out_map Source:TradingView.Com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

2025 was one hell of a year for trading.From volatility and shifting geopolitics to consistent one-way trends and pivotal rate cuts, every type of trader found their edge this year.The first half was defined by a multi-asset explosion against the US Dollar, as participants aggressively diversified away from two decades of US-centric positioning. With Europe reappearing on the international scene and capital flows moving decisively, the Dollar Index was arguably the most critical chart to track through the first six months. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView To capitalize on this diversification, precious metals were hunted down relentlessly. Gold is up a stealthy 65%, but the most impressive rallies spread to the broader complex. Silver was easily the winner, crushing all expectations with a massive 145% gain since last New Year's Eve. I hope some of our readers followed our post-Jackson Hole guidance to ride that wave. zoom_out_map Silver (XAG/USD) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Finally, looking at individual names in the equity market, the standout performer has to be Alphabet. Breaking away from its peers and surpassing Nvidia—which saw some downbeat action post-October—the internet giant proved itself as the King of Stocks. Sitting right at the center of the AI revolution with its data centers, chip production, and technological moats, it was the year's undisputed leader. zoom_out_map Google (Alphabet) Daily Chart. December 31, 2025 – Source: TradingView Honorable mention goes to the best-performing precious metals stocks—I invite you to check our full yearly rewind and 2026 expectations right here! Happy New Year, and wishing you successful trading and prosperity in the year ahead.Safe Trades and Sweet Celebrations!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Slides 4.5%: Key Levels to Watch Moving ForwardOil prices edged higher for a second day as markets eye Geopolitical risks as a potential catalyst.However, as has been the case over the last few months of the year neither bulls nor bears appear ready to fully commit. The shifting tone on the geopolitical front have failed to help thus far.Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks Moscow accused Ukraine of trying to attack President Putin's residence, which has raised fears that oil supplies might be disrupted. Ukraine denied the claim, calling it false and an attempt to sabotage peace negotiations.However, US President Donald Trump expressed anger about the alleged attack after speaking with Putin. Although Trump still says a peace deal is possible, these rising tensions have led market participants to believe that an agreement will be very hard to reach, which could drive oil prices higher.The question as has been the case for the last few months is, by how much?Middle East Tensions, Iran Protests Traders are worried about rising tensions in the Middle East after President Trump threatened a major strike on Iran if it tries to rebuild its nuclear or missile programs.He also warned Hamas to disarm, hoping to advance the ceasefire agreement with Israel that was reached in October.Oil supply worries grew after Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in Yemen against groups supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Saudi Arabia declared its national security was at risk and ordered UAE troops to leave Yemen within 24 hours.Although the UAE was surprised and disappointed by the attack, it later announced that it would voluntarily withdraw its last remaining counterterrorism forces from the country. This conflict between traditional allies has added to market fears about stability in the Middle East.However, even with these fears that conflict could disrupt supplies, analysts believe oil prices will not rise too high because there is currently too much oil available in the global market.Catalyst Ahead - OPEC Meeting There is the first OPEC meeting of 2026 ahead and it could not come at a worse time given the tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen.Despite the nature of the disagreement between the two Oil powerhouses, it is unlikely to impact oil markets. This is because OPEC functions by coordinating oil production even when its members strongly disagree on political issues.These two nations have had conflicting goals in Yemen for years and even argued openly about oil production limits in 2021, yet they have always managed to reach agreements to keep the market stable.The real challenge facing OPEC in 2026 is not this diplomatic spat, but rather the economic problem of managing oversupply and falling oil prices. History suggests that as long as the members can agree on the production math, their political arguments will not stop the group from functioning.Whatever the decision at the upcoming January 4 meeting, it does have the potential to be the catalyst that may break oil prices out of its funk. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Analysis - WTI From a technical analysis standpoint, WTI continues to struggle with significant sideways movement.Oil is trading in a large symmetrical triangle pattern with a break in either direction hopefully leading to a decent rally this time around.Risks for me personally are still tilted toward the downside, with a break to the upside likely to run out of steam quickly. (This is just based on current dynamics and recent price action).Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart, December 30, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to:Support57.69 (100-day MA)56.88 (December 17 swing high & December 26 swing low)55.79Resistance58.38 (200-day MA)59.0060.00 (psychological level)Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

As the dust settles on a tumultuous 2025, traders are left catching their breath after a year that defied the typical post-election script. If 2024 was the prelude, 2025 was the main event—a year defined by a stark pivot toward American exceptionalism and the revamp of global trade volatility.The year was dominated by the Trump administration’s aggressive "America First" policies, which paradoxically accelerated a global move away from reliance on the US Dollar. While Washington secured new bilateral trade deals with partners, the broader message to the world was clear: the way the global economy functioned the past 50 years is changing.Geopolitically, the "peace through strength" doctrine faced severe tests. The conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine did not cease; they merely mutated. While high-level summits—including the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan—offered temporary truces, the underlying friction points remained hot. Meanwhile, central banks across the developed world continued their rate-cutting cycles, providing a liquidity backstop that kept equity markets buoyant despite the political chaos.And who could forget the drama in Tokyo? The "Takaichi Yen-run" will be studied by FX traders for decades.The market positioned aggressively for continued loose monetary policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi – After an 11% drop in USD/JPY throughout the first half of the year, the resulting volatility saw the pair get back to down only 1%.Other currencies which had already strengthened against the dollar saw even wilder runs against the yen. Check out EUR/JPY! zoom_out_map EUR/JPY Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView As we turn the page to 2026, the trading landscape shifts from reaction to anticipation. Here is what to expect.Economics: Inflation Fears and Doubts in the US Will Global Inflation Maintain its Path?Will there really be a Soft Landing or just no Landing? While headline inflation moderated in 2025, with doubts regarding to the latest US CPI release, 2026 might reserve some surprises. The full pass-through of 2025’s tariffs should see its effect in the first half of next year.The question for traders is whether this is a one-off level adjustment or the start of a sticky, upward-pressured path. If the latter, the bond market is drastically mispriced.US Economy: Downside Risk vs. AI ProductivityThe US economy is a tale of two sectors. Manufacturing is struggling under the weight of trade disputes, but services—buoyed by the AI boom—remain robust. The wildcard for 2026 is jobs. We are moving past the "AI investment" phase into the "AI implementation" phase. If AI begins to displace white-collar labor at scale, consumer confidence could crack further, tipping the US into a shallow recession by mid-year.Central Banks: The Pivot PointThe US: The Federal Reserve is in a bind. The market is pricing in cuts, but if tariff-driven inflation spikes, the Fed may be forced to hold.Japan: The BoJ remains the outlier. Despite the market’s disbelief, Governor Ueda—backed by a government desperate to defend purchasing power—may deliver further hawkish surprises. The "carry trade" is not dead, but it is dangerous. Watch for a potential hike to 1.0% by Q3, which would send shockwaves through global liquidity.Macroeconomics: The Commodity Scramble The Metal Demand WinnersAs the Debasement Trade evolves, capital is hunting for resource-rich nations with stable governance.Canada could stand out as a primary beneficiary, conditional to a solid US deal.With oil prices stabilizing and a massive surge in demand for critical minerals (copper, nickel, uranium) needed for AI data centers and defense, the Canadian economy could outperform. The Loonie (CAD) could see nice momentum if they manage FX Trends: The Rise of Regional BlocsThe era of global currency correlation is fading. In 2026, keep an eye on whether Multi-Regional Trends persist:North American Bloc: The US and Canada may move in lockstep depending on if the USDMCA Deal gets anchored well.Pacific Bloc: The AUD and NZD should stick together, particularly if the Royal Bank of New Zealand manages to The Old Continent: European currencies have managed to attract quite strong flows between the CHF reaching multi-decade highs against the US Dollar, without mentioning the Euro and Pound having a stellar run. The question stands: Will European currencies hold strong or is their run over?For clues, keep an eye on the US Dollar.De-dollarization: Slow Burn or Forest Fire?The "sell the Dollar" trade was crowded yet successful trade in 2025, but 2026 may see a pause.Now, eyes will be on the US politics and whether dollar sales persist or if the de-dollarization sees an actual slow down or reversal. Keep an eye on the US trade policies, metals and if the Federal Reserve holds rates high. zoom_out_map Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart, December 30, 2025. Source: TradingView Politics: The Year of the Ballot and the Bench The Federal Reserve AppointmentThis is the single most critical event of Q1. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, the nomination process in January will be a market-moving spectacle. President Trump has made no secret of his desire for lower rates.The Scenario: If a loyalist like Kevin Hassett or Kevin Warsh is nominated, expect a massive "risk-on" rally in equities and a sharp sell-off in the Dollar, as markets price in a politicized, dovish Fed. The Senate confirmation hearings will be the volatility event of the spring.The Supreme Court & TariffsLegal challenges to the administration's "Reciprocal Tariff" executive orders are heading to the Supreme Court. A ruling is expected by June. If the Court strikes down the President's authority to unilaterally set broad tariffs, we could see a massive deflationary unwind and a rally in global trade proxies (shipping, emerging markets).US Mid-TermsThe 2026 Mid-terms will dominate the H2 narrative. The Senate map puts the Republican majority at risk, with key races in Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan. If polls suggest a "Blue Wave" that could gridlock the Trump agenda, markets may actually cheer the return of legislative paralysis—Wall Street loves a divided government. Read More:The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookWTI Outlook: Oil Bounces From Channel Lows — Major Reversal in 2026?Markets Today: Gold, Silver Eye a Recovery as Indices Hold the High Ground. FOMC Minutes Now in FocusGeopolitics: Some Volatile Flashpoints Oil: Center StageAfter a bearish 2025, oil might be on the brink of a reversal. The catalyst likely won't be demand, but supply disruption.Venezuela: The détente is over. The US administration’s patience with Caracas has run out. Expect a return to "maximum pressure" sanctions, effectively removing Venezuelan heavy crude from the Western market. This puts a floor under Brent crude prices.Iran: Tensions are escalating. With Tehran conducting more frequent ballistic missile tests and enriching uranium to near-weapons grade, the risk of a preemptive strike by Israel (or a US-led coalition) is higher than at any point in the last decade. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains the ultimate "black swan."The Taiwan StraitWhile the Busan meeting cooled temperatures temporarily, the underlying thermodynamics are heating up. Intelligence suggests China is moving its timeline for "reunification readiness" forward. 2026 will likely see an increase in "grey zone" warfare—cyberattacks, blockades, and airspace incursions. For traders, this could see major repricing in risk-assets and the US dollar.Any kinetic escalation around Taiwan would make the 2025 volatility look like a warm-up.Summary 2026 will be a year where economics and politics are inseparable. The "pure" trades are gone. Every position—whether in FX, bonds, or equities—is now a bet on a geopolitic outcomes. Stay nimble, keep an eye on the Supreme Court, and never fight the tape when the Fed Chair changes guard.Safe Trades and Happy New Year!Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Most Read: The 2025 Metal Frenzy: A Year-End Wrap-Up and 2026 OutlookGold is experiencing its first major pullback since mid-November as the precious metal is down 4.5% on the day. How far will the current pullback go and what are the key levels to watch?Precious metals and commodities are falling across the board as profit taking and portfolio rebalancing ahead of the new year appear to be driving some volatility following the recent price surge ahead of Christmas day.Commodity Market Snapshot zoom_out_map Source: TradingView Gold is down around 4.5% which is small in comparison to palladium and platinum which have both slipped around 17% and 15% respectively. Silver is also experiencing a double digit drop off on the day, currently down around 12.6% on the day.Geopolitical Hope Aiding the Selloff? Geopolitics had been driving some of the rally particularly from a safe haven perspective ahead of Christmas. US, Venezuela tensions appeared to be on course for a possible military intervention which stoked haven demand.However, the US administration has clarified that they intend to turn up the economic pressure first and see if that yields the desired result.Add to that cautious hope following comments from the U.S. government regarding progress in the Ukraine peace talks, which is acting as a slight drag on haven demand.On Sunday, President Trump stated that he and Ukrainian President Zelensky are getting "very close" to reaching an agreement to finally end the war.What Comes Next for Gold Prices? Investors are closely watching for the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting notes on Tuesday to get a better idea of future interest rates.Currently, traders expect rates to be cut twice next year, which is usually good for assets like gold that do not earn interest.However, gold prices are already very high, and there is a risk they could fall if the Fed surprises everyone by keeping rates high or if large investment funds decide to sell their holdings. zoom_out_map For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Technical Outlook - Gold (XAU/USD) Looking at the four-hour chart below, the technical picture is intriguing to say the least..The selloff today has taken gold into oversold territory while at the same breaching the 50-Day MA and testing the 100-day MA resting at 4321.If Gold can hold above the 100-day MA bulls may regain interest as liquidity returns and push prices higher.The pullback today could be down to profit taking and repositioning and in the current environment there appears to be little bullish pressure to stop the slide.There is of course the probability that the selloff continues and brings lower levels of support into play.Gold (XAU/USD) Four-Hour Chart, December 29, 2025 zoom_out_map Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Key levels to pay attention to include$4,321, 100-day MA$4,275, Previous Swing Low on December 16 Before the pre-Christmas Rally$4250, Previous Breakout LevelFollow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.