South Korean equities extended their advance for a second straight session, with Samsung Electronics doing much of the heavy lifting even as SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution moved lower, pointing to stock specific rather than broad based sector strength. Foreign investors turning net buyers alongside a stronger won suggests some renewed appetite for Korean assets despite caution linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict, though the scale of net buying was modest. The sharp jump in early month exports adds a positive underlying data point for the broader growth picture, while the finance minister's comments on leveraged ETF measures and readiness to act on volatility signal authorities remain attentive to speculative excess even as the market rallies.Note, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday today. --- Samsung is carrying the Kospi higher on its own for a second day, even as the rest of the chip and battery complex pulls in the opposite direction.Summary:The Kospi rose around 0.6% to roughly 6,339 points, following a similar sized gain of circa 0.65% on Monday.South Korea's exports rose circa 45% in the first 10 days of August compared with a year earlier.Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said trading in single stock leveraged ETFs has fallen since supplementary government measures were introduced, and said authorities would take all possible policy steps to reduce market volatility.Samsung Electronics rose circa 3.6%, while SK Hynix fell circa 0.4% and LG Energy Solution slid circa 1.5%.Of 908 traded issues, 512 advanced and 348 declined.Foreigners were net buyers of shares worth around 148 billion won, or roughly $104 million.The won strengthened to around 1,416 per dollar, up circa 0.2% from its previous close. South Korean shares rose for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, driven largely by a sharp gain in chipmaker Samsung Electronics, even as broader market sentiment remained cautious amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.The benchmark Kospi index climbed around 0.6% to trade near 6,339 points, building on a similar sized advance of circa 0.65% recorded on Monday. The gains came despite a mixed performance among the market's other heavyweight names, underscoring that Samsung's strength was doing much of the work behind the index level move.Samsung Electronics rose circa 3.6%, while fellow chipmaker SK Hynix slipped circa 0.4% and battery maker LG Energy Solution fell circa 1.5%, highlighting a divergence within the technology and battery complex rather than a broad based rally. Across the wider market, advancers outnumbered decliners, with 512 of 908 traded issues higher against 348 lower.Foreign investors were net buyers of Korean shares, adding a modest amount worth around 148 billion won, or roughly $104 million, on the day. The Korean won strengthened alongside the equity gains, quoted at around 1,416 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, up circa 0.2% from its previous close.Separately, trade data released Tuesday showed South Korea's exports rose circa 45% in the first ten days of August compared with the same period a year earlier, a strong start to the month for the export dependent economy. Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol also addressed recent volatility in single stock leveraged exchange traded funds, saying trading activity in that segment has declined since the government introduced supplementary measures. He added that authorities remain prepared to take all possible policy steps to reduce market volatility going forward, a signal that officials continue to monitor speculative trading closely even as the broader market extends its gains.  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The NAB survey points to an economy holding up better than feared but still operating under the shadow of elevated uncertainty, a combination that gives the RBA little reason to shift from its expected hold today. The pickup in conditions to +4, still below the long run trend of +7, alongside confidence stuck well below pre-conflict levels, supports the case for a cautious central bank message rather than a clearly hawkish or dovish one. The rise in cost pressures, particularly through transport and utilities as fuel prices swing with the renewed Gulf tensions, adds a layer of relevance for how the RBA frames near term inflation risk in today's accompanying communication. The jump in capacity utilisation and steady sales suggest underlying demand is not collapsing, which should reduce any temptation for the Bank to soften its tone on future tightening.Still ahead, RBA:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine print--- Australian businesses are managing better than feared, but confidence remains too fragile to call the uncertainty over.Summary:NAB's business conditions index rose to +4 in July from +3 in June, though it remains below the long run trend of +7.Business confidence held at -6 in July, unchanged from June and still well below levels seen in February before the US-Israeli war on Iran began.NAB said elevated uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence despite outcomes improving relative to the peak impact of the Middle East crisis.Cost pressures alongside a softer forward demand outlook are seen continuing to squeeze margins, with the transport and utilities industry a key driver of higher final prices and purchase costs amid swings in fuel prices.Employment and profitability measures picked up in July while sales were steady, and capacity utilisation rose sharply to 83.0%, led by the finance, business and property and wholesale industries.The RBA meets today and is widely expected to hold rates at 4.35% after three hikes this year, with policymakers previously warning further increases are possible if inflation does not cool as hoped. Australian business conditions improved marginally in July while confidence remained fragile, a survey published Tuesday showed, with firms pointing to ongoing cost pressures even as renewed tensions in the Gulf pushed oil prices higher again.The National Australia Bank survey showed its business conditions index rose one point to +4 in July, though the reading remains below the long run trend of +7. Confidence was unchanged at -6, still well below the level recorded in February before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran.NAB said the survey results show elevated uncertainty has continued to weigh on business confidence, even though outcomes have improved relative to the peak impact of the Middle East crisis. The bank added that cost pressures, combined with a softer forward demand outlook, suggest margins will remain under continued pressure. Fuel price swings were flagged as a particular driver of cost pressure in the transport and utilities industry, which NAB noted was a key contributor to the rise in both final prices and purchase costs recorded in the survey.Beneath the fragile headline confidence figure, some underlying indicators showed more encouraging signs. Measures of employment and profitability both picked up in July, while sales activity held steady. Capacity utilisation rose sharply to 83.0%, a jump NAB attributed largely to the finance, business and property and wholesale industries, pointing to firmer underlying activity in parts of the economy even as broader sentiment remains subdued. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

This is a domestic political story with limited direct market relevance at this stage. The NZD reaction is likely to be muted given no policy or fiscal outcome is yet at stake, only leadership speculation within the governing party roughly 90 days out from the election. Any market sensitivity would more plausibly build if the situation escalates into an actual leadership change or destabilises National's position heading into the campaign, rather than from the caucus meeting itself.--- Luxon is moving fast to shut down leadership speculation before it becomes the story dominating National's run into the election.Summary:Christopher Luxon has called an urgent in person caucus meeting for 9:30am Wednesday in Wellington to resolve what he described as increased speculation about his leadership.The move follows a difficult period for Luxon, including a mixed message on potential new taxes and reports of National MPs fielding calls about a possible leadership change.Luxon abruptly postponed a scheduled RNZ podcast interview shortly before announcing the meeting.Senior National figures Chris Bishop and Rima Nakhle have publicly backed Luxon, with Bishop denying leadership is on the agenda for a separate scheduled Zoom meeting.RNZ reported mixed responses from around ten MPs contacted, ranging from denial of any leadership murmurings to at least one describing the reports as nonsense.The speculation comes roughly 90 days before New Zealand's general election. New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has called an urgent in person caucus meeting for Wednesday morning in Wellington in an effort to resolve what he described as increased speculation about his leadership, just under three months before the country's general election.Luxon announced the meeting on social media on Tuesday, saying it was clear from media reports and conversations that speculation about his leadership had increased, and that division and disunity represented a major distraction with so much at stake so close to the election. He said the issue needed to be resolved quickly, both for the country and for National Party candidates, supporters and volunteers. The announcement came shortly after his team postponed a scheduled RNZ podcast interview.The speculation follows a difficult stretch for the Prime Minister, including a mixed messaging episode earlier in the week where a press conference intended to pressure the opposition on budget rules instead turned into Luxon discussing potential new taxes, including a fuel excise increase, a bed tax and a bank tax, under a future National led government. Local media also reported that National MPs had spent Monday fielding phone calls about a potential leadership change, with one MP quoted saying a change was likely, with only the question of who remaining open.Senior National figures moved quickly to shore up support for Luxon. Chris Bishop and Rima Nakhle publicly backed the Prime Minister, with Bishop confirming a separate caucus Zoom meeting was scheduled but denying leadership was on its agenda, describing such meetings as not unusual during a recess week.Reporting on the extent of internal concern has been mixed. Journalists who contacted around ten MPs received a range of responses, from declining to comment to outright denial that any leadership discussions were taking place, while at least one MP suggested the reporting had some basis in fact and another dismissed it entirely. Wednesday's caucus meeting is expected to be the clearest signal yet of whether the speculation reflects a genuine threat to Luxon's position or a passing distraction ahead of the campaign. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

In brief:China central bank reverse repo volume at zero for first time since June in response to demand from primary dealers This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold's third straight session of gains reflects the market's ongoing repricing of US rate expectations following Friday's weaker than expected jobs report, which has materially dented what had been firm bets on a rate hike next month. Lower rate expectations are supportive for bullion given gold pays no yield, and that dynamic is likely to remain the dominant driver into this week's inflation data. With CPI due Wednesday and PPI on Thursday, those prints now carry outsized weight for gold positioning, since a hotter than expected reading could quickly revive rate hike bets and cap the current rally, while a soft print would likely extend it further.--- Gold's rally is really a bet that the soft jobs report was the start of a dovish shift, one this week's inflation data will either confirm or unwind.Summary:Spot gold rose around 0.5% to roughly $4,400 an ounce, its highest level since June 5.The move follows a weak July jobs report that led markets to scale back expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.The US economy lost around 23,000 jobs in July, while the unemployment rate eased slightly to 4.1% from June's 4.2%.Lower rate expectations support gold given the metal yields no interest.The Fed held rates steady at its July meeting, with three officials dissenting in favour of a hike.US CPI data is due Wednesday, with PPI data following on Thursday. Gold extended its gains for a third consecutive session on Tuesday, climbing to its highest level in more than two months as investors turned their attention to upcoming US inflation data for clues on the path of interest rates.Spot gold rose around 0.5% to trade near $4,400 an ounce, its strongest level since early June. The move builds on a rally that began following Friday's weaker than expected US jobs report, which showed the economy shed roughly 23,000 positions in July even as the unemployment rate ticked down slightly to 4.1% from June's 4.2%. The soft payrolls figure prompted markets to significantly scale back what had been firm expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at its upcoming meeting.Lower interest rate expectations tend to support gold prices, since the metal offers no yield of its own and becomes comparatively more attractive to hold when rates are lower or expected to fall. That dynamic has underpinned bullion's advance over the past several sessions as traders reassess the likely path of monetary policy.The Fed left rates unchanged at its July meeting, though three officials dissented in favour of raising them, underscoring that the central bank's internal debate on the appropriate policy stance remains far from settled.Attention now turns to two key inflation releases this week that could shape how durable gold's rally proves to be. US consumer price data is due Wednesday, followed by producer price data on Thursday. Either print carries the potential to shift rate expectations meaningfully in either direction, with a hotter than expected reading likely to revive hike bets and pressure gold, while a softer outcome would likely reinforce the dovish narrative currently supporting the metal's advance toward multi month highs.---Pic via Wall Street Journal: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here.PBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demand This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The UK consumer data paints a mixed picture that will matter for the sterling and gilt outlook heading into upcoming inflation and retail sales releases. BRC's headline retail sales growth slowing to 1.3% year on year in July from 1.9% in June, alongside like-for-like sales easing to 1.0% from 1.7%, points to underlying softness even as World Cup related spending on food and in pubs provided a temporary lift. That divergence between resilient essential spending and continued weakness in big-ticket, non-essential categories such as footwear suggests UK consumers remain cautious on discretionary outlays despite Barclaycard's broader spending gauge ticking up to 2.0% from 1.9% and consumer confidence reaching its highest level in 21 months. Analyst comments on building food supply chain pressures from Middle East tensions and prolonged heat add a forward looking inflation risk that could feed into food cost expectations and household budget strain heading into autumn, a theme worth watching alongside the broader oil price story already in play this week.-- England's World Cup run gave UK food and pub spending a lift in July, but underlying retail momentum kept slowing and shoppers stayed wary of big purchases.Summary:BRC total retail sales rose 1.3% year on year in July, below average and down from 1.9% in June.BRC like-for-like sales rose 1.0% year on year in July, down from 1.7% in June.Food sales rose 3.8% year on year while non-food sales fell 0.7%, with clothing supported by the heatwave but footwear declining.Barclaycard's UK consumer spending measure rose 2.0% year on year in July, up slightly from 1.9% in June, with essential spending up 2.9% and non-essential spending up 1.6%.Pub transactions rose 10% helped by England's World Cup semi-final run, while travel spending skewed toward domestic staycations, with airline spending down 6%.Middle East tensions and prolonged hot weather are building pressure across the food supply chain, raising the risk of higher food costs and renewed household budget strain into autumn.Barclays' consumer confidence measure showed the most optimism about the UK economy in 21 months British consumers spent more on food and in pubs in July, helped by England's run to the World Cup semi-finals and a spell of hot weather, though underlying retail momentum continued to slow and shoppers remained cautious on larger purchases, according to survey data published Tuesday.The British Retail Consortium's total retail sales measure rose 1.3% year on year in July, a below average pace that slowed from 1.9% growth in June. Like-for-like sales, which strip out the effect of new store openings, rose 1.0% year on year, down from 1.7% the previous month. Food sales were a bright spot, up 3.8% year on year, while non-food sales fell 0.7%. Clothing sales benefited from the heatwave, though footwear sales declined, pointing to a consumer base still picking and choosing where to spend rather than lifting purchases broadly.Barclaycard's broader measure of UK consumer spending told a slightly more positive story, rising 2.0% year on year in July, marginally faster than June's 1.9% increase. Within that figure, growth in essential spending ran at 2.9% while non-essential spending rose a more modest 1.6%, reinforcing the theme of consumers prioritising necessities over discretionary outlays. Pubs were a standout category, with transactions up 10% as England's World Cup semi-final run drew people out to watch matches. Travel spending, meanwhile, skewed toward domestic staycations, with airline spending down 6% over the period.Despite the mixed spending picture, Barclays' measure of consumer confidence showed the most optimism about the UK economy in 21 months, suggesting sentiment may be improving even as actual spending growth on bigger ticket items remains subdued.Looking ahead, Sarah Bradbury, chief executive of the Institute of Grocery Distribution, struck a more cautious note on the outlook for food prices specifically. She said pressures are building across the food supply chain as a result of the conflict in the Middle East and prolonged hot weather, increasing the likelihood of higher food costs and renewed pressure on household budgets as the UK moves into autumn. That warning adds a forward looking inflation risk to what was otherwise a relatively encouraging month for UK food and hospitality spending. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore's sharp upgrade to its 2026 growth forecast, more than doubling the top end of its previous range, signals that the AI investment boom is now doing more work in the region's growth outlook than the Middle East conflict is doing damage, a rebalancing that matters for how traders price broader Asian growth exposure. The scale of the non-oil domestic export forecast upgrade, to 14-16% from just 3-5%, is particularly striking and points to Singapore's trade exposed sectors benefiting disproportionately from AI-linked demand even as sectors tied to Middle East supply chains remain under pressure. For a market that has spent recent sessions focused on oil price risk from the Hormuz standoff, this data offers a useful counterpoint, showing at least one channel through which the AI cycle is providing an offsetting tailwind to growth in the region rather than being overshadowed by geopolitical risk.--- Singapore's growth upgrade shows the AI investment boom is currently outweighing Middle East conflict drag in at least one corner of the Asian economy.Summary:Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, above both the Reuters poll estimate of 5.8% and the earlier official advance estimate of 5.7%.Quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted GDP expanded 1.4%, ahead of the 1.1% advance estimate, with first half 2026 growth running at 6.1%.The Trade Ministry upgraded its full year 2026 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5%, up sharply from a previous range of 2.0% to 4.0%.The ministry said the impact of the Middle East war has been less severe than initially feared, while the global AI investment boom has been stronger than expected.The ministry noted the improved outlook applies to AI and technology linked sectors, while sectors directly affected by Middle East related supply disruptions remain weak.Enterprise Singapore separately upgraded its 2026 forecast for non-oil domestic export growth to 14% to 16%, up from a prior forecast of 3% to 5%. Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, government data showed on Tuesday, coming in above both the Reuters poll estimate of 5.8% and the official advance estimate of 5.7% released earlier. The Trade Ministry said first half growth for the year now stands at 6.1%, a pace that has prompted a substantial upgrade to the government's full year outlook.On a quarter on quarter, seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product expanded 1.4% in the April to June period, ahead of the 1.1% advance estimate. The stronger than expected reading fed directly into the ministry's decision to raise its 2026 GDP growth forecast to a range of 4.5% to 5.5%, up sharply from its previous forecast of 2.0% to 4.0%.The ministry attributed the upgrade to two offsetting forces working in Singapore's favour. The impact of the Middle East war has proven less severe than initially feared, while the global AI investment boom has been considerably stronger than expected. The ministry said the improved 2026 outlook applies specifically to sectors of the Singapore economy linked to the AI driven technology cycle, while sectors directly exposed to supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict remain weak, indicating the recovery in the outlook is uneven across the economy rather than broad based.In a separate statement, Enterprise Singapore delivered an even more dramatic revision, upgrading its forecast for 2026 growth in non-oil domestic exports to a range of 14% to 16%, up from a prior forecast of just 3% to 5%. The scale of that upgrade underscores how central AI linked demand has become to Singapore's trade performance this year, with export exposed sectors evidently capturing a disproportionate share of the benefit from the technology investment cycle.Taken together, the data paints Singapore as something of a bellwether for how the AI investment boom is reshaping regional growth expectations even as geopolitical risk from the Middle East continues to weigh on parts of the global economy. With first half growth already running well above the government's original full year forecast range, the revised 4.5% to 5.5% outlook suggests officials now see the AI driven tailwind as durable enough to sustain elevated growth through the remainder of the year, even as the sectors more exposed to Middle East related disruption continue to lag behind. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

With a hold from the RBA today priced in almost unanimously, the rate decision itself carries little market moving potential, and the real signal will come from the Statement, the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, and the Governor's press conference. A dissent from any of the seven non-RBA Board members in favour of tightening would be read as hawkish and could quickly reprice the timing of the next move, particularly given a meaningful minority of economists still expect further hikes rather than the cuts some major banks are pencilling in for mid 2027. Forecast revisions are likely to cut both ways, with an upgraded unemployment outlook offset by only modest inflation improvement given the minimum wage adjustment, meaning the net tone of the Statement may matter more than any single data point. A repeat of the Bank's standing warning that it remains ready to tighten further would reinforce current pricing, while any softening of that language would likely be read as a dovish shift.Earlier:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decision--- The RBA hold is not in doubt today, but the forecast revisions and Board commentary will tell markets far more about where rates go next.Summary:The RBA is widely expected to leave rates on hold at today's meeting, with the decision due alongside updated forecasts in the August Statement on Monetary Policy.Since May, oil prices have eased slightly, unemployment has run higher than forecast at 4.4% in two of three months in the June quarter versus a 4.2% expectation, and Q2 trimmed mean inflation came in a little softer at 0.8% quarter on quarter.Housing turnover and prices have weakened more than expected, partly due to May budget tax changes, while construction has strengthened on the back of AI data centre investment.Key focus areas include whether any non-RBA Board members dissent in favour of a hike, how the unemployment and inflation forecasts are revised, and the tone of the Governor's decision statement and press conference.Major bank economists broadly believe rates have now peaked, with possible cuts from around mid 2027, though a sizeable group of economists still expects further tightening given persistent wage and services inflation pressure.A rate cut is not expected to be seriously considered at this meeting, with housing weakness more likely viewed as helping return inflation to target than as grounds for easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it hands down its decision today, a call so broadly anticipated by markets and economists that the hold itself is unlikely to move markets on its own. Attention instead is centred on the updated economic forecasts and communication that will accompany the decision.Alongside the rate call, the RBA will release fresh forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Since the Bank's previous forecasts in May, conditions have shifted in several directions. Oil prices and Middle East tensions have eased somewhat, a modest positive for the inflation outlook. Unemployment has come in higher than the RBA expected, printing at 4.4% in two of the three months of the June quarter against a prior forecast of 4.2%. Trimmed mean inflation for the quarter came in a touch softer than anticipated at 0.8%, welcome news though still a pace that would sit above target if sustained. Housing turnover and prices have also softened more than expected, partly reflecting tax changes in the May budget, while construction has found unexpected strength on the back of heavy AI data centre spending.Three things will be closely watched in today's communication. The first is whether any of the seven non-RBA Board members dissent in favour of a further rate increase, which would signal at least some members see policy as not yet sufficiently restrictive or see the timeline for returning inflation to target as having already run too long. The second is the scale of the forecast revisions, with an upward revision to unemployment expected alongside only modest improvement to the inflation outlook, since the recent 4.8% increase in the minimum award wage is expected to limit how much that forecast can improve. The third is the tone of the Governor's decision statement and subsequent press conference, where the Bank is expected to repeat its standing message that it remains prepared to raise rates further if needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.That combination of signals has left economists split. Economists at each of the four major banks now believe the cash rate has peaked, with modest cuts possible from around the middle of 2027. A separate, sizeable group of economists continues to argue further tightening will be required, pointing to persistently low unemployment, a 4.8% minimum wage increase, broader wage growth running at 3.5% to 3.75%, and sticky services inflation as reasons the current forecast path may prove too optimistic.A rate cut is not expected to feature meaningfully in today's discussion, with housing market softness likely to be viewed by the Board as assisting the return of inflation to target rather than as a reason to ease policy. The case for holding rests on the Board having more time to assess the effects of its earlier tightening before needing to act again, a view aligned with both market pricing and the majority of economist forecasts, while the case for a further hike centres on inflation still running 0.75 to 1 percentage point above target after an already extended period above goal.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

TD Securities' base case of an RBA hold at 4.35% aligns with broad consensus and with OIS pricing that shows close to zero probability of a hike today, meaning the meeting itself carries limited surprise risk for AUD or rates markets. The more relevant signal for positioning is likely to come from the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, where TD Securities expects the RBA to resist sharply downgrading its inflation forecasts despite the softer than expected trimmed mean CPI print, citing elevated oil prices as an ongoing upside risk to the inflation outlook. That combination, a confirmed pause alongside a cautious rather than dovish forecast revision, points to a relatively contained market reaction, with any surprise more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself.---Earlier:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate builds TD Securities sees a straightforward RBA hold today, with the real point of interest being whether the Bank downgrades its inflation forecasts despite softer recent data.Summary:TD Securities expects the RBA to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, matching broader market consensus.The bank says the RBA remains in a "pause and observe mode", citing restrictive policy settings, slowing activity particularly in housing, and the lagged effects of earlier hikes still working through the economy.A lower than expected Q2 trimmed mean CPI reading has given the RBA room to pause, with OIS markets pricing close to zero probability of a hike today.The RBA will release updated economic forecasts in its August Statement on Monetary Policy alongside today's decision.TD Securities does not expect a sharp downgrade to the RBA's inflation forecasts, pointing to elevated oil prices as a continuing upside risk to the inflation outlook. TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% at today's meeting, a call that matches broader market consensus and leaves limited room for surprise in the decision itself.In a note to clients, the bank said the RBA remains in what it describes as a pause and observe phase of the cycle. TD Securities pointed to three factors behind that stance: policy is already viewed as restrictive, activity is slowing in response to earlier rate hikes, with housing showing particular sensitivity, and the full effect of those earlier increases has yet to be fully felt across the economy. Against that backdrop, the bank said a softer than expected trimmed mean CPI reading for the second quarter has given the RBA additional room to hold steady this month. OIS markets are pricing close to zero probability of a hike at today's meeting, TD Securities noted, underscoring how settled expectations already are heading into the decision.Beyond the rate call itself, TD Securities flagged that today's meeting will also bring updated economic forecasts via the RBA's August Statement on Monetary Policy. Here the bank sees more scope for a market reaction than in the widely anticipated hold. TD Securities said it does not expect the RBA to sharply downgrade its inflation forecasts despite the softer recent CPI print, arguing that elevated oil prices continue to pose a meaningful upside risk to the inflation outlook that should keep the central bank from turning too dovish in its language.Taken together, TD Securities' preview points to a relatively low drama outcome on the headline rate decision, with the more informative signal likely to come from how the RBA frames its forecast revisions rather than from the decision itself. Any hawkish surprise in that language, driven by the oil price risk TD Securities highlights, would be the more likely source of market movement out of today's meeting. The decision is due Tuesday, 11 August 2026 at 2:30pm Sydney time (04:30 GMT, 12:30am US Eastern), with Governor Michele Bullock's press conference following an hour later at 3:30pm Sydney time (05:30 GMT, 1:30am US Eastern) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Hammack's comments push directly against the dovish repricing that followed Friday's weak July payrolls report, and reintroduce two sided risk into a market that had largely settled on the Fed staying on hold. As a sitting FOMC member who dissented in July in favour of a hike, her view carries more weight than a typical regional president's, and her explicit statement that one move would not be enough raises the stakes on Wednesday's core CPI print. If core CPI comes in soft as expected, her hawkish framing may be dismissed as an outlier view, but a hotter print would give her argument real traction and could quickly unwind bets on a near term hold. Rates markets, and by extension gold and the dollar, are the most direct channels through which this could show up before Wednesday's data.--- A sitting FOMC dissenter just told markets one rate hike will not be enough, reopening a debate that Friday's jobs data appeared to have closed.Summary:Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack told Yahoo Finance she expects it will take more than a single interest rate hike to bring down what she calls broadening inflation.She dissented at the Fed's July meeting, where she favoured raising rates by a quarter point rather than holding steady.Hammack said she does not see current rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range as meaningfully restrictive, citing conversations with businesses showing no sense of investment restraint.She warned that delaying action lengthens the time inflation stays above the Fed's 2% target and makes it harder to bring back down.She said the weak July jobs report, showing a loss of 23,000 positions, does not shift her focus away from inflation, noting 4.1% unemployment is close to her full employment estimate.Core PCE stood at 3.3% in June and core CPI at 2.6%, with economists expecting core CPI to ease to 2.5% in Wednesday's July release. Cleveland Federal Reserve president Beth Hammack said Monday that containing what she describes as broadening inflation will likely require more than a single interest rate increase, pushing back against market expectations that the Fed is done raising rates for now. Speaking to Yahoo Finance, Hammack said a solitary quarter point move would probably do little on its own, and that some further number of moves would likely be needed, though she declined to specify how many.Hammack dissented at the Fed's July policy meeting, where the FOMC opted to hold rates steady, arguing instead for a quarter point increase. She reiterated that view in the interview, saying she does not believe rates currently sitting in the 3.5% to 3.75% range are meaningfully restricting the economy. She pointed to her own conversations with businesses, saying she is not hearing signs that firms feel constrained from investing or growing at current rate levels, which she said points to now being the right time to act rather than wait.She cautioned that further delay would extend the period in which inflation runs above the Fed's 2% target and make the eventual task of bringing it back down harder. Hammack described her preferred approach as gradual, comparing it to pumping the brakes ahead of a stop sign rather than braking hard all at once, and said now is the time to begin adding more restraint to policy.The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, stood at 3.3% in June, while core CPI came in at 2.6% for the same month. Economists expect Wednesday's July core CPI release to show a further easing to around 2.5%, which would mark a second consecutive month of declining inflation if the forecast holds. Hammack said she would welcome being proven wrong if the data show inflation returning to target without further tightening, but said that from her current vantage point she does not see that happening on its own.She also addressed July's surprise jobs report, which showed a loss of 23,000 positions, saying it does not distract her from her inflation focus. She noted that payrolls have averaged gains of only 20,000 to 25,000 a month over the past year and that the 4.1% unemployment rate sits close to her own estimate of full employment, credited to Beth Hammack in her interview with Yahoo Finance.---CPI data due Wednesday, further inflation data follows later in the week:  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran shakedown continues. Yesterday:There are reports that Iran missiles have hit a tanker off Oman in Hormuz southern corridor This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

MUFG has opened a new long AUD/JPY position at 111.20, targeting 114.50 with a stop at 109.20, arriving alongside the bank's broader assessment that yen direction will ultimately be driven by fundamentals rather than by the joint US-Japan intervention effort. The bank argues history is instructive here, noting that in 1995, 1998 and 2011 USD/JPY revisited or breached initial intervention levels before a genuine shift in the fundamental backdrop, rather than the intervention itself, turned the pair. That framing matters for positioning broadly exposed to yen direction, since it implies intervention-driven yen strength may prove a fading rather than durable force unless it is reinforced by a genuine shift in rate differentials or growth data. MUFG also flags that the weaker than expected July payrolls report released Friday  reinforces the case for softening US fundamentals, which the bank sees as a more credible driver of eventual USD/JPY downside than the intervention itself, albeit one it expects to unfold more gradually than the sharp 1998 reversal.--- MUFG is betting that yen intervention will prove a temporary headline rather than a lasting driver, and is expressing that view through a fresh long AUD/JPY position.Summary:MUFG has opened a new long AUD/JPY trade idea at 111.20, with a target of 114.50 and a stop loss at 109.20.The bank argues joint US-Japan intervention to support the yen will be reinforced near term by today's weaker than expected July payrolls report, but says fundamentals still matter more for the pair's direction.A review of past joint intervention episodes in 1995, 1998 and 2011 shows USD/JPY breached initial intervention levels each time before a genuine fundamental shift, not the intervention itself, eventually turned the pair.In 1995, Japanese and German rate cuts alongside a pick-up in US growth drove USD/JPY higher; in 1998, a 75bps Fed rate cut over September to November triggered a sharp plunge in USD/JPY; in 2011, record unilateral Japanese intervention and the arrival of Shinzo Abe as PM in late 2012 were the real turning points.MUFG argues US fundamentals are now turning, meaning USD/JPY could move lower, though by less and less abruptly than in 1998. MUFG has opened a new long AUD/JPY trade idea, entering at 111.20 with a target of 114.50 and a stop loss set at 109.20. The call comes as the bank lays out its house view on how the yen is likely to trade following joint intervention by the United States and Japan, an effort MUFG says will be helped in the near term by today's much weaker than expected July payrolls report, but which it cautions should not be read by clients as the primary driver of where the currency goes from here.The bank's central message is that fundamentals, not the mechanics of intervention itself, have historically determined when USD/JPY genuinely turns. MUFG points to three prior joint or coordinated intervention episodes, in 1995, 1998 and 2011, and notes that in every case USD/JPY breached its initial post-intervention levels again before a lasting change in direction actually took hold. In 1995, that change came from rate cuts in Japan and Germany combined with a pick-up in US growth, which together pushed USD/JPY higher. In 1998, a rapid 75 basis point reduction in the Fed funds rate between September and November triggered what MUFG describes as an unprecedented plunge in USD/JPY. In 2011, it was record unilateral Japanese intervention that October, nearly nine months after the earthquake and tsunami, combined with the arrival of Shinzo Abe as prime minister in late 2012, that eventually drove the pair higher rather than the intervention alone.Applying that framework to the current environment, MUFG argues that US fundamentals are now turning, which it believes can support a lower USD/JPY over time, though it expects any such move to be considerably smaller and less abrupt than the 1998 episode. The bank's new long AUD/JPY position is presented as its preferred way to express a view on yen dynamics through the current window, entered at 111.20 with the 114.50 target and 109.20 stop loss defining the risk parameters of the trade.For clients positioning around the intervention headlines, MUFG's core takeaway is one of caution against reading too much into the intervention itself. The bank's historical read suggests markets should watch the incoming US data flow, starting with today's payrolls miss, more closely than the intervention headlines for signs of where the yen is actually headed next. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Asian markets are slowly kicking off for Tuesday, August 11, 2026. I've done a bit of a catch up on what I missed since I wrapped up Monday. I find doing this helps me, so hopefully it'll add some value for you. -Monday's session saw the Hormuz risk premium take a sharp leg higher after President Trump publicly countered Iran's compensation demands with reparations claims of his own, a rhetorical escalation that traders read as pushing a near-term deal further away rather than closer. Brent's intraday jump of over 4% on the news suggests the market is now pricing genuine deal risk rather than simple negotiating theatre. The broader equity tape has still not caught the same signal, with energy stocks absorbing the move while the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq stayed close to flat, indicating traders are for now treating this as a sector story. Gold's separate strength near a two month high, tied to the post payrolls dovish Fed repricing, gives the market a hedge against a scenario where oil driven inflation risk and rate cut hopes start to conflict. The reparations exchange adds a genuinely new and hard to unwind sticking point to talks that were already stuck on route access and sanctions relief.--- What began as a dispute over shipping routes has widened into a reparations standoff, and that is a far harder gap for negotiators to close than technical route access.Summary:Trump demanded Iran compensate victims of attacks, conflicts and domestic repression he attributed to Tehran, instructing his negotiators to add the demand to all future talks.The move came directly in response to Iran's own insistence that Washington compensate it for damage from more than five months of US and Israeli strikes.Trump named Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza specifically, saying Iran should be held responsible for damages and deaths in those countries too.Brent crude rose as much as 4.25% intraday on Monday as the reparations exchange broke out, extending gains that had already been building on Hormuz uncertainty.Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately said the strait blockade will not lift until Washington meets its conditions, including compensation, an end to sanctions and a halt to military threats.One regional security analyst suggested Iran may be using unattainable demands like reparations as cover to extract more realistic concessions, such as sanctions relief. Oil extended its rally on Monday after President Trump countered Iran's demand for war reparations with a compensation claim of his own, an escalation that traders and analysts say pushes a near term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz further out of reach. Brent crude jumped as much as 4.25% intraday on the news, building on gains already underway from days of conflicting signals over the state of Hormuz negotiations.The exchange began after Iran reiterated that any reopening of the strait was conditional on Washington compensating Tehran for damage caused by more than five months of US and Israeli strikes on its territory. Trump responded on his Truth Social platform, saying he was likewise demanding compensation from Iran for people he said had been killed or gravely wounded in roadside bombings and other conflicts linked to Tehran over more than two decades, including payments to families of protesters killed by Iranian authorities. He went further in a follow up post, saying Iran should also be held responsible for damages and deaths in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Gaza, and said he had instructed his negotiating team to insert the demand into all future talks.Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately reiterated over the weekend that the Hormuz blockade will not be lifted until the United States meets a broader list of conditions, including an end to sanctions, a lifting of the naval blockade and a halt to military threats, on top of compensation. Iran's foreign ministry has also said diplomacy alone cannot resolve the standoff, hardening the tone from Tehran's side even as separate technical talks with Oman over shipping routes were said to be close to a framework.Regional security analysts suggest the reparations demand may be more a negotiating tactic than a genuine sticking point, with Iran potentially using an unattainable ask to make its more realistic conditions, such as sanctions relief, look comparatively reasonable. Whether or not that reading holds, the immediate market effect was to reprice the probability of a swift resolution lower. Equity markets have so far absorbed the move as a sector story, with energy stocks outperforming while the broader indexes stayed close to flat, but a further escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran would be the clearest near term catalyst for that containment to break down.Ahead today, Economic and event calendar in Asia Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - Japan holiday, RBA decision This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Fed's Hammack: Now is the time to bring more restraint into policyTrump says he is demanding compensation from Iran for people killedIt's time to start the countdown on Atlantic hurricane seasonUS July employment trends 107.71 vs 106.74 priorIntel dilutes shareholders: Will launch $15 billion secondaryMarkets:WTI crude up $3.90 to $82.08Gold up $46 to $4388S&P 500 down 0.1%US 10-year yields up 4.3 bps to 4.70%GBP leads, JPY lagsThe yen was beaten up on Monday as it gave back a big part of its intervention gains. USD/JPY rose more than 150 pips on the day on steady bids that continued as the pair broke through 159.00 in US trading. That's a real challenge to Japan's finance ministry and the US Treasury as they try to clamp down on the pair, with limited success so far despite a big spend. Eyes will be on the rhetoric as Japan wakes up.Otherwise, the market is taking a dim view of the chance of peace in Iran and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump sounded on the weekend like he had abandoned the military option and was going to try to starve out Iran with a blockade. In turn, Iran is going to try to keep oil blocked in the Strait and drive up the price of crude. With oil up nearly 5% today, the costs are quickly going to mount on both sides. Trump turned to compensation rhetoric this time rather than 'bomb the power plants' so this could last awhile.Gold was also interesting as it gained once again in a reversal. It had been as low as $4313 but is trading near the highs at $4389 now in a nice turnaround. The US intervening to weaken its own currency, Friday's soft jobs report and a meandering war are all tailwinds and the price action is impressive.On the equity side, there was an earlier report of a $500 billion structured finance loan for Nvidia in the hyper-scaler buildout in what's possibly the largest private fundraise of all time. The details are beginning to leak out now but the initial reports weighed on Nvidia.  This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Previews of today's Reserve Bank of Australia decision are here:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Four straight days of gains in both gold and oil is a rare occurence and it makes me anxious about the status of the US dollar. It's notable that the gains have come amidst US intervention in the yen and yet-another mess in the Iran strategy.In any case, the bounce in gold hasn't run out of steam yet. It was lower earlier but is now up $40 and at a session high of $4382. Notably, that's just above the mid-June high, clearing the first technical hurdle in the latest rally.To be fair, it's a long ways to the heady days of $5500 in February but the price action so far underscores the floor at $4000. The problem for me is the 5% rally in oil prices today undermines gold and emphasizes risks of prolongued oil price gains. I don't think that's an accute problem until $90-95 in brent but that's when it starts to build (spot at $87). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I'm still not seeing a problem with the jobs marketSays she doesn't think one 25 bps move will do muchCurrent rate is not meaningfully restricting the economyWould probably need some number of hikesNo intention to prejudge the number of rate increasesHammack dissented in the prior meeting so this isn't a big surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY is starting to remind me of the Iran war: There's a battle but no defined strategy.It's abundantly clear that both Japan and the US want USD/JPY lower but we don't know how low they want it to go, or what they're prepared to do to get in there (and hold it there). For now, the tactic has been to throw money at the trade, with the US selling euros to buy yen. That led to a squeeze lower in the pair but it quickly bottomed out and now the bulls are wading in.I'm watching 159.58, which is the 50% retracement of the intervention low but officials will be watching 160.00 most-closely. We're only 90 pips away now and moentum is clearly helping.For me, it's tough to see a real plan here and recent events have made me skeptical that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has one. Because of that, it makes it harder to trade on it as the US might resort to a bazooka to really unmoor the market. I get the idea of strategic ambiguity because you don't want the market to pin you in a corner. After all, Bessent was mentored by Soros and Druckenmiller, famous for breaking the Bank of England's lock on the pound.I also can't get over the clumsiness of leaking this image that's obviously not written in a way that an FX trader would ever write it.Ultimately, what worries me is that Japanese banks or insurance companies are holding large obligations or losses that could blow up. For now, I think it's a spot worth watching very closely but hardly one worth chasing.  This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are edging close to hurricane season in the Atlantic basis and we might get an early start with two systems being monitored in the mid-Atlantics. The NHC sees a 60% of one system forming into a tropical cyclone (in orange) and a 10% chance of another. The second one is on a more-notable track for potential entry into the Gulf of Mexico while the other looks to be tracking north on a path that would usually take it to the North Atlantic.The season this year could be particularly important for global petroleum product prices and LNG as the US is tapping reserves to shore-up global supplies. Any distruptions could be magnified. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.