JPMorgan says China’s property market may be nearing a turning point, with stabilising prices and rising demand supporting the outlook for Chinese equities to outperform emerging markets.Summary:JPMorgan sees China property market nearing turning point Stabilisation could support Chinese equity outperformance New-home price declines slowing in March Used-home prices rise in 13 cities Hong Kong property recovery aiding sentiment Equity gains feeding delayed wealth effect Early signs, but recovery still tentativeJPMorgan believes China’s property sector may be approaching a turning point, a shift that could provide a meaningful tailwind for Chinese equities and support outperformance relative to broader emerging markets.The bank points to early signs of stabilisation in housing data, alongside improving sentiment linked to gains in equity markets and a recovery in Hong Kong real estate. Together, these factors are beginning to feed through into a gradual revival in housing demand after a prolonged downturn.China’s property market has endured a multi-year correction, weighing heavily on growth, household confidence and financial conditions. However, recent data suggests that the pace of decline is moderating. New-home prices continued to fall in March, but at a slower rate, while prices in the secondary market rose across 13 cities—an encouraging signal that conditions may be starting to stabilise at the margin.JPMorgan highlights the role of spillover effects from Hong Kong’s property rebound, which appears to be improving sentiment more broadly across the region. In addition, rising Chinese equity markets are beginning to generate a delayed “wealth effect,” supporting consumer confidence and gradually feeding back into housing demand.While the recovery remains tentative, the bank argues that the direction of travel is becoming more constructive. A stabilising property sector could ease one of the key structural drags on the Chinese economy, helping to improve the broader macro outlook.From a market perspective, this shift has important implications. JPMorgan sees scope for Chinese equities to outperform emerging market peers if the property downturn continues to bottom out. The stabilisation of housing activity could reinforce earnings expectations, improve investor sentiment and support capital inflows into Chinese assets.That said, the bank’s view rests on early-stage indicators rather than a full recovery, suggesting that confirmation through sustained improvement in data will be critical. For now, the call reflects a growing belief that the worst of China’s property slump may be passing, with potential upside for equities if the trend holds. Might not be able to use this much any more. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley sees a tactical pause in European equities, warning sentiment is stretched and expecting choppy trading, while favouring stock picking with energy, banks and utilities outperforming.Summary:Morgan Stanley flags tactical pause in European equities Near-term choppiness expected during earnings season Sentiment seen as stretched after recent rally Optimism on Hormuz risks may be overdone Earnings dispersion supports stock picking Energy, banks, utilities seen as outperformers Luxury, autos, staples face higher miss riskMorgan Stanley is flagging a near-term slowdown in the rally across European equities, warning that markets may struggle to maintain recent momentum as earnings season unfolds.While the broader outlook remains constructive over the medium term, analysts expects a period of volatility at the index level, with sentiment having run ahead of fundamentals. In her view, investor positioning has become stretched, increasing the likelihood of a tactical pause rather than a continuation of the recent upswing.A key driver behind this shift is the market’s increasingly optimistic stance on geopolitical risks, particularly expectations around a resolution to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Morgan Stanley suggests that investors have already priced in a relatively benign outcome, leaving markets vulnerable if reality falls short of those assumptions.That said, the environment may become more favourable beneath the surface. Rather than broad index gains, Morgan Stanley sees a transition toward stock-specific performance as the dominant theme through earnings season. Consensus earnings forecasts for MSCI Europe are trending higher, while dispersion between individual stocks is elevated, creating a more attractive backdrop for active stock selection.Against this backdrop, sector dynamics are expected to diverge. Morgan Stanley highlights energy, utilities, banks and telecoms as areas with the strongest potential for earnings beats, positioning them as relative winners in the current reporting cycle.By contrast, the outlook appears more challenging for sectors such as luxury, autos and consumer staples, where expectations may prove harder to meet. Analysts suggest investors should be more selective in these areas, as the risk of earnings disappointments is skewed higher.Overall, the call points to a market shifting away from broad-based gains toward a more fragmented, stock-driven phase, with heightened volatility likely as earnings results test elevated expectations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan exports rose 11.7% y/y in March, beating forecasts, but a smaller trade surplus and rising import costs highlight growing risks from energy prices and supply disruptions.Summary:Exports +11.7% y/y, beat expectations, seventh straight gain Imports +10.9% y/y, well above forecasts Trade surplus ¥667B, below expectations Strong demand from China, modest US growth Higher prices supporting exports Energy costs and supply disruptions rising risk BoJ expected to hold but keep tightening biasJapan’s trade data for March showed exports continuing to expand at a solid pace, supported by firm global demand and higher prices, although underlying risks from rising energy costs and supply disruptions are beginning to build.Exports rose 11.7% year-on-year, beating expectations for an 11.0% increase and marking a seventh consecutive month of growth. The strength was broad-based, with shipments to China jumping 17.7%, while exports to the United States rose a more modest 3.4%.Imports also surprised to the upside, increasing 10.9% year-on-year compared with forecasts for a 7.1% gain. The stronger import growth, driven in part by higher energy costs, resulted in a smaller-than-expected trade surplus of ¥667 billion, well below expectations for a ¥1.1 trillion surplus.Despite ongoing disruption risks tied to tensions in the Middle East and constraints around the Strait of Hormuz, Japan’s export sector has remained resilient for now. Higher export prices have helped offset some of the logistical and supply chain challenges, allowing trade volumes to hold up in the near term.However, the outlook is becoming more complex. Rising energy prices are beginning to feed through into input costs, particularly for manufacturers reliant on imported oil and petrochemical feedstocks. Shortages of key materials such as naphtha have already forced some firms to halt orders, highlighting emerging strain beneath the headline strength in exports.Japan’s economy continues to show signs of a modest recovery, underpinned by business investment and external demand, but the momentum remains uneven. The combination of higher import costs and supply constraints poses a downside risk to both production and consumption in the months ahead.For policymakers, the data reinforces a delicate balancing act. While resilient exports support growth, the inflationary impact of higher energy prices and a weaker yen is adding pressure to the outlook. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, but maintain a tightening bias as it navigates the trade-off between sustaining growth and managing rising price pressures. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.Injects 6bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia’s Leading Index fell to –0.13% in March, slipping below trend for the first time since August, signalling softer growth ahead as higher rates and energy shocks weigh on activity.Summary:Leading Index falls to –0.13% in March (from +0.05%) First below-trend reading since August last year Signals weaker growth outlook into late 2026 Momentum has fallen sharply since October peak Higher interest rates weighing on activity Global energy shock adding pressure Points to sustained but softer expansionAustralia’s growth outlook has softened, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index slipping back into below-trend territory in March, signalling a loss of economic momentum heading into the second half of 2026.The six-month annualised growth rate of the index, which tracks the likely pace of activity three to nine months ahead, fell to –0.13% in March, down from +0.05% in February. The move marks the first below-trend reading since August last year, indicating that the economy is no longer expanding at its typical pace.While the deterioration is not yet severe, the shift suggests that the growth pulse has weakened materially over recent months. The index has now declined steadily from a peak of +0.31% in October to around –0.15% currently, representing a cumulative slowdown of roughly 0.44 percentage points. This reversal highlights a clear loss of momentum after a period of relative resilience.Westpac notes that the slowdown reflects a combination of domestic and global pressures. Higher interest rates are continuing to weigh on activity, tightening financial conditions and dampening demand across key sectors. At the same time, the global energy shock linked to Middle East tensions is adding to cost pressures, complicating the outlook for both households and businesses.The March reading suggests that below-trend growth is likely to persist through the remainder of 2026. Although the current pace does not point to a sharp downturn, it does indicate a more subdued expansion phase, with risks tilted toward further softening if external pressures intensify.Historically, similar below-trend readings have been associated with periods of economic strain, including the prolonged weakness seen during the 2022–2024 cost-of-living crisis. While conditions today are less severe, the re-emergence of below-trend growth underscores the fragility of the recovery and the sensitivity of the economy to both policy settings and global shocks.From a policy perspective, the data presents a nuanced challenge. While growth is clearly moderating, persistent inflation pressures—particularly those stemming from energy—continue to complicate the outlook for monetary policy. This reinforces the likelihood that policymakers will remain cautious, balancing the need to contain inflation against signs of slowing activity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Axios with the info. Trump is considering extending the Jones Act waiver after it boosted U.S. oil shipments by 70% and eased fuel costs, with over 9 million barrels moved by foreign tankers since March.Summary:Trump considering extending Jones Act waiver Waiver introduced to ease fuel costs during Iran war Foreign tankers boosted domestic fleet by ~70% Over 9 million barrels shipped under waiver Alaska sees significant fuel supply benefit Debate pits cost efficiency vs domestic industry protection No final decision yet on extension The Trump administration is weighing an extension of its temporary waiver of the Jones Act, after early data showed the move has significantly boosted domestic oil shipments and eased fuel cost pressures during the Iran war.The Jones Act, a century-old U.S. maritime law, requires goods transported between U.S. ports to be carried on American-built and flagged vessels. While designed to support domestic shipping and shipbuilding industries, the rule has long been criticised for increasing transport costs due to a limited supply of eligible vessels.In response to rising fuel prices linked to Middle East tensions, President Trump introduced a 60-day waiver on March 18, allowing foreign-flagged tankers to move oil between U.S. ports. The policy shift has materially expanded available shipping capacity, with White House data showing around 40 additional tankers have entered the domestic trade, effectively increasing the fleet by roughly 70%.Since the waiver took effect, foreign vessels have transported at least 9 million barrels of oil across key domestic routes, including from California to Texas, Florida and Alaska. Officials say the impact has been particularly notable in Alaska, where imported jet fuel under the waiver accounts for roughly half of the state’s typical monthly consumption.The administration views the waiver as a tool to mitigate supply bottlenecks and stabilise fuel prices during a period of heightened geopolitical risk. One adviser said the president has responded positively to the results so far and is open to maintaining the waiver for as long as Iranian-related disruptions continue to pressure energy markets.However, the policy remains politically contentious. Critics of the Jones Act, including libertarian groups, argue the law is outdated and unnecessarily inflates costs across the U.S. economy. Supporters, including protectionist and national security advocates, counter that the legislation is essential for maintaining a domestic maritime industry and safeguarding jobs.The debate reflects a broader tension between economic efficiency and strategic resilience. While the waiver has delivered short-term benefits in terms of increased supply and reduced transport costs, extending it could face pushback from stakeholders concerned about long-term impacts on U.S. shipping capacity and employment.For now, the White House has not made a final decision on whether to prolong the waiver, but officials emphasise that the initial data points to improved supply flows and faster delivery of energy resources across the country. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump's latest:The war of words continues. It does appear both sides don't want to restart shooting. Vance seems to be restraining Trump for now. Can that last? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:U.S. seizes Iranian-linked tanker near Sri Lanka Enforcement expands far beyond Persian Gulf Stateless tanker tied to Iranian oil flows Second interdiction in two days Links to China highlight ongoing trade routes AIS “dark activity” used to evade tracking Move signals global reach of U.S. sanctionsThe United States has escalated its maritime enforcement campaign against Iran, seizing a sanctioned oil tanker near Sri Lanka, more than 3,000 miles from the Persian Gulf,in a move that underscores a shift toward global enforcement of sanctions beyond the Middle East.U.S. forces boarded the stateless crude tanker M/T Tifani in the Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) area without incident, according to official statements. Maritime tracking data showed the vessel halting in the Indian Ocean near Sri Lanka, after departing China in late March. The tanker had reportedly loaded Iranian crude at Kharg Island, Iran’s primary export terminal, and was believed to be en route toward Southeast Asia before ultimately heading to China.Washington said the operation forms part of a broader effort to disrupt illicit oil networks tied to Iran, making clear that sanctioned vessels would be targeted regardless of location. Officials stressed that international waters are no longer a safe haven for ships engaged in sanctioned trade, signalling a more expansive and assertive enforcement posture.The Tifani has a history of operating under multiple flags and has previously been linked to ship-to-ship transfers involving sanctioned Iranian oil. It has also reportedly engaged in “dark activity,” periodically disabling its AIS tracking system—an established tactic used to obscure movements and evade detection.The seizure marks the second interdiction in as many days. U.S. forces also moved against the Iranian-flagged cargo vessel Touska near the Strait of Hormuz, disabling its propulsion after accusing it of attempting to bypass a maritime blockade. Both vessels had recent links to Chinese ports, highlighting an apparent trade route for Iranian oil exports despite sanctions.The broader implication is a significant expansion of enforcement reach. By acting far from the Gulf, the U.S. is signalling that Iranian-linked shipping faces risk across global sea lanes, not just in traditional chokepoints. That raises the stakes for maritime operators and could introduce new uncertainty into already strained energy supply chains.The move also carries geopolitical implications. China criticised the earlier seizure near Hormuz, describing the situation as complex and sensitive, suggesting the risk of diplomatic friction as enforcement expands. More broadly, the precedent of long-range interdictions could prompt other major powers to adopt similar tactics. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:JPMorgan lifts S&P 500 target to 7,600 (from 7,200) Implies ~7% upside from current levels EPS forecasts raised for 2026 and 2027 AI and tech earnings drive bullish outlook Ceasefire supports sentiment and risk appetite Near-term consolidation risk flagged Upside to ~8,000 possible in bullish scenarioJPMorgan has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 7,600 from 7,200, pointing to stronger-than-expected earnings momentum driven by artificial intelligence and a more supportive geopolitical backdrop following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire.The revised forecast implies roughly 7% upside from current levels, marking a notable shift just weeks after the bank had lowered its outlook amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Alongside the higher index target, JPMorgan also upgraded its earnings expectations, lifting its 2026 S&P 500 earnings-per-share (EPS) forecast to $330 from $315, and its 2027 estimate to $385 from $355.U.S. equities have staged a solid rebound since their March lows, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing to fresh highs as geopolitical tensions eased and investor focus returned to fundamentals. JPMorgan argues that the recovery has been underpinned by continued strength in AI and technology stocks, which remain central to the broader earnings story.The bank highlighted renewed optimism around the AI theme, noting that recent developments, including Anthropic’s “Mythos” model, have helped reinvigorate bullish sentiment after a softer start to the year. While the model’s rollout was paused due to cybersecurity concerns, the broader signal for markets has been one of accelerating innovation and sustained investment in AI infrastructure.Despite the improved outlook, JPMorgan cautions that the recent rally may not be linear. With markets having rebounded sharply and geopolitical risks still evolving, there is a growing likelihood of a near-term consolidation phase before the next leg higher. However, the bank sees scope for further gains if conditions remain supportive, with the potential for the index to approach 8,000 by year-end in a more optimistic scenario tied to a faster resolution of geopolitical tensions.Importantly, JPMorgan believes consensus earnings forecasts may still have room to rise, although recent upgrades have been concentrated in a narrow group of large-cap technology names and parts of the energy sector. This suggests the rally remains somewhat dependent on a relatively small leadership cohort.From a broader allocation perspective, the bank continues to view U.S. equities as a core long-term holding, supported by structural advantages including innovation, growth, and shareholder returns. That said, it acknowledges ongoing diversification trends and capital flows into non-U.S. markets, which could act as a moderating force over time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s trade balance recorded a surplus of ¥667.0B in March (expected ¥1,106B, prior ¥57.3B)imports increased 10.9% y/y (exp. 7.1%, prior 10.2%)exports rose 11.7% y/y (exp. 11.0%, prior 4.2%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

JPMorgan says the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is bearish for the dollar, re-entering selective USD shorts and favouring high-yielding currencies like AUD, NZD and EM FX as geopolitical risk eases.Summary:JPMorgan sees U.S.-Iran ceasefire as USD-negative Re-enters USD shorts with more selective approach Focus shifts to carry-efficient positioning Sticky inflation supports high-yielding currencies Commodity FX and EM currencies favoured Reduced geopolitical risk weakens USD demand Gradual, not broad-based, USD downside expected JPMorgan sees the U.S.-Iran ceasefire as a negative catalyst for the U.S. dollar, arguing that easing geopolitical tensions reduces the currency’s safe-haven appeal while reopening opportunities to position for renewed weakness in the greenback.Strategists Meera Chandan and Arindam Sandilya say they are selectively re-entering short USD positions, though with a more disciplined and targeted approach than prior to the conflict. Rather than broad-based bearish bets, they emphasise the importance of carry efficiency and careful currency selection in the current macro backdrop.The shift in strategy reflects a changing market environment following the de-escalation in the Middle East, where reduced geopolitical risk is expected to unwind some of the defensive demand that had supported the dollar during the height of tensions. At the same time, the bank expects global inflation pressures to remain persistent, reinforcing the appeal of higher-yielding currencies.In this context, JPMorgan highlights a basket of currencies it views as well positioned in a post-conflict scenario. Commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar, Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar are favoured, supported by resilient global demand and relatively attractive yield profiles. The euro is also included, reflecting improving macro stability in the eurozone.In emerging markets, the bank points to the Hungarian forint, Brazilian real, Mexican peso and Chinese yuan as offering compelling opportunities. These currencies combine relatively high carry with sensitivity to improved global risk sentiment, positioning them to benefit from a stabilisation in geopolitical conditions and a potential rotation out of defensive dollar holdings.Overall, JPMorgan’s view suggests that while the dollar may not see a sharp or uniform decline, the balance of risks has shifted toward gradual depreciation, particularly against currencies that offer yield advantages and exposure to a recovery in global risk appetiteTrump seems keen on the ceasefire holding:Trump says will extend ceasefire for nowIran is coy:Iran has not yet accepted Trump's ceasefire. Iran says it'll make an announcement soon.Iran's Revolutionary Guard source says will not reopen Hormuz long as blockade continues This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Over 30 countries will meet in London to advance military plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, focusing on deployment and command structures, with any mission contingent on a sustainable ceasefire.Summary:30+ countries to hold London talks on Hormuz reopening Focus shifts from diplomacy to military planning UK-France led mission gaining international backing 50 countries joined earlier coordination call Talks to cover capabilities, command and deployment Mission contingent on a sustainable ceasefire Signals allied coordination despite US stanceMilitary planners from more than 30 countries are set to convene in London for two days of talks aimed at advancing operational plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as efforts shift from diplomatic alignment toward practical military coordination.The meeting, hosted by the UK government and beginning Wednesday, follows earlier discussions that established broad international support for a maritime security mission. More than a dozen nations have already signalled their willingness to participate in a British- and French-led initiative to safeguard shipping through the critical energy chokepoint once conditions on the ground allow.The initiative comes amid heightened geopolitical tensions and disruption risks in the region, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a focal point for global energy markets. Around 50 countries from Europe, Asia and the Middle East joined a virtual conference last week, underscoring the scale of international concern and the importance of ensuring freedom of navigation through the corridor.The latest round of talks is expected to focus on translating that political consensus into a concrete operational framework. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, discussions will centre on military capabilities, command structures, and deployment logistics required to support a coordinated presence in the region.UK Defence Secretary John Healey said the objective of the London meetings is to move from agreement in principle to actionable planning, including the design of a joint mission capable of protecting commercial shipping and supporting a durable ceasefire environment. He expressed confidence that tangible progress could be achieved over the course of the two-day session.The proposed mission would only be activated once conditions stabilise sufficiently, with officials emphasising that a sustainable ceasefire remains a prerequisite for reopening the waterway. In that context, the planning effort reflects both a contingency framework and a signal of preparedness to re-establish secure maritime transit.The push also carries a diplomatic dimension, highlighting coordination among U.S. allies after Washington indicated it may not require external support. The multinational approach suggests a willingness among partners to take a more active role in securing the waterway, reinforcing the strategic importance of Hormuz to global trade and energy flows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada’s trade negotiator says USMCA review is a checkpoint, not a cliff, and warns not all US trade issues will be resolved by July 1, with Ottawa focused on protecting the deal while seeking tariff relief.Summary:Canada sees July 1 USMCA review as a checkpoint, not a deadline No expectation all US trade disputes will be resolved by then Agreement remains in place even if issues persist Formal negotiations with the US have not yet begun Focus remains on tariffs (steel, autos, aluminium, lumber) Canada aims to protect core USMCA framework, not renegotiate it Annual review risk flagged as a source of business uncertaintyCanada’s top trade negotiator to the United States, Janice Charette, signalled that expectations for a comprehensive resolution of bilateral trade issues by the July 1 USMCA review deadline are unrealistic, but stressed that any delay would not jeopardise the agreement itself.Speaking publicly for the first time since assuming the role in February, Charette characterised the July deadline as a “checkpoint” rather than a hard cutoff, pushing back against market and business concerns that unresolved disputes could trigger instability in North American trade relations. Her comments came during a panel hosted by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in Ottawa.The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), known domestically as CUSMA in Canada, is due for review by July 1 under provisions requiring the three countries to assess and extend the pact every six years. If the agreement is not formally extended, it would shift into an annual review process, an outcome business groups warn could inject uncertainty into investment decisions, hiring plans, and long-term supply chain commitments.Despite the looming review, Charette confirmed that Canada has yet to begin formal negotiations with Washington. However, engagement has taken place on key sectoral disputes, including U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, autos, and softwood lumber, areas that have been persistent sources of friction and have weighed heavily on Canadian exporters.Charette emphasised that the breadth of outstanding issues, combined with competing global priorities for the United States, makes it unlikely that all matters can be resolved within the current timeframe. Even so, she underscored that the agreement itself would remain intact regardless of whether negotiations conclude by July.The USMCA framework has helped shield Canada from a broader wave of global tariffs imposed by the U.S., leaving it with one of the lowest effective import tariff rates among U.S. trading partners. Against that backdrop, Charette made clear her mandate is focused on preserving the core structure of the agreement rather than reopening foundational elements.At the same time, Ottawa is seeking targeted relief from existing U.S. tariffs and aiming to resolve long-standing disputes in key industries. The approach reflects a balance between defending the stability of the current trade framework and addressing sector-specific pressures that continue to challenge Canada’s export competitiveness.--I wonder why Canada view the deadline as so flexible? This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

If you are doing some catch up, oil prices had a very volatile ride in the US afternoon. As it happened:Oil up on ... Iran's decision not to attend Wednesday's meeting is final - TasnimOil down on ... Trump says will extend ceasefire for now Since then:Iran has not yet accepted Trump's ceasefire. Iran says it'll make an announcement soon.Iran's Revolutionary Guard source says will not reopen Hormuz long as blockade continuesWhite House says Vance trip to Pakistan will not happening Tuesday This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its just a cavalcade of headlines.The latest is that a White House official says Vance's trip to Pakistan will not be happening on Tuesday. So what. Maybe he leaves Wednesday, I dunno?Trump offered a ceasefire. Iran is thinking about it. IRGC says Hormuz will remain closed until blockade ends.And so, we wait. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

IRGC-linked Tasnim said the continuation of the naval blockade amounts to an ongoing state of conflict, adding that Iran will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the blockade remains in place, and warning it is prepared to break the blockade by force if required.Earlier:Trump says will extend ceasefire for now - more to comeIran has not yet accepted Trump's ceasefire. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump offered to extend the ceasefireTrump says will extend ceasefire for nowIran has not yet accepted it. Indeed, an Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf’s adviser said Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire is illogical, arguing the move is a tactic to buy time for a potential surprise attack, while maintaining that Iran currently holds the upper hand.Iran says it'll make a statement soon. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Iran's decision not to attend Wednesday's meeting is final - TasnimTrump says will extend ceasefire for now - more to comeUS has privately indicated to Iranians it will soon lift blockade - reportIran foreign min: Blockading Iranian ports is an act of warPakistan info minister: Formal response from Iranian side on attending talks still awaitedKevin Warsh says he wants a new inflation frameworkUS March retail sales +1.7% vs +1.4% expectedWeekly US ADP pulse 54.75 vs 39.25K priorTrump: We're in a strong negotiating position, will end up with a great dealMarkets:Gold down $112 to $4707June WTI crude up $2.81 to $90.29S&P 500 down 0.6%US 10-year yields up 4.8 bps to 4.2975%USD leads, EUR lagsThe twists and turns continued in the Iran war. The day started with high hopes and there were initial signs that JD Vance and US negotiators would be dispatched to Pakistan but not long after Trump's appearance on CNBC, the doubts started to creep in. At the same time, the US retail sales report was strong but totally ignored.When Vance flew to Washington instead of Islamabad, the worries intensified and they were confirmed late in the day by an Iran media report saying that talks were called off. That was confirmed shortly afterwards by US media and Trump then unilaterally extended the ceasefire. Notably, the agreed ceasefire ends at 7:50 pm ET (about three hours from now) and Iran is already saying a surprise attack is Trump's plan.With Trump's ceasefire the market breathed a sign of relief but his statement was notable for highlighting division in Iran and that looks like a divide-and-conquer strategy rather than a tactical move to wait. This is also the fifth time Trump has extended his own deadline to bomb Iran's infrastructure.The market moves were largely predictable with oil higher, the euro sliding, yields higher and stock markets lower. Expect much more of that if the bombs start flying again. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This lot is unlikely to shift markets around much at all upon release. Eyes on the war makers still. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.