With a hold from the RBA today priced in almost unanimously, the rate decision itself carries little market moving potential, and the real signal will come from the Statement, the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy, and the Governor's press conference. A dissent from any of the seven non-RBA Board members in favour of tightening would be read as hawkish and could quickly reprice the timing of the next move, particularly given a meaningful minority of economists still expect further hikes rather than the cuts some major banks are pencilling in for mid 2027. Forecast revisions are likely to cut both ways, with an upgraded unemployment outlook offset by only modest inflation improvement given the minimum wage adjustment, meaning the net tone of the Statement may matter more than any single data point. A repeat of the Bank's standing warning that it remains ready to tighten further would reinforce current pricing, while any softening of that language would likely be read as a dovish shift.Earlier:RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decision--- The RBA hold is not in doubt today, but the forecast revisions and Board commentary will tell markets far more about where rates go next.Summary:The RBA is widely expected to leave rates on hold at today's meeting, with the decision due alongside updated forecasts in the August Statement on Monetary Policy.Since May, oil prices have eased slightly, unemployment has run higher than forecast at 4.4% in two of three months in the June quarter versus a 4.2% expectation, and Q2 trimmed mean inflation came in a little softer at 0.8% quarter on quarter.Housing turnover and prices have weakened more than expected, partly due to May budget tax changes, while construction has strengthened on the back of AI data centre investment.Key focus areas include whether any non-RBA Board members dissent in favour of a hike, how the unemployment and inflation forecasts are revised, and the tone of the Governor's decision statement and press conference.Major bank economists broadly believe rates have now peaked, with possible cuts from around mid 2027, though a sizeable group of economists still expects further tightening given persistent wage and services inflation pressure.A rate cut is not expected to be seriously considered at this meeting, with housing weakness more likely viewed as helping return inflation to target than as grounds for easing. The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged when it hands down its decision today, a call so broadly anticipated by markets and economists that the hold itself is unlikely to move markets on its own. Attention instead is centred on the updated economic forecasts and communication that will accompany the decision.Alongside the rate call, the RBA will release fresh forecasts for growth, unemployment and inflation in its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. Since the Bank's previous forecasts in May, conditions have shifted in several directions. Oil prices and Middle East tensions have eased somewhat, a modest positive for the inflation outlook. Unemployment has come in higher than the RBA expected, printing at 4.4% in two of the three months of the June quarter against a prior forecast of 4.2%. Trimmed mean inflation for the quarter came in a touch softer than anticipated at 0.8%, welcome news though still a pace that would sit above target if sustained. Housing turnover and prices have also softened more than expected, partly reflecting tax changes in the May budget, while construction has found unexpected strength on the back of heavy AI data centre spending.Three things will be closely watched in today's communication. The first is whether any of the seven non-RBA Board members dissent in favour of a further rate increase, which would signal at least some members see policy as not yet sufficiently restrictive or see the timeline for returning inflation to target as having already run too long. The second is the scale of the forecast revisions, with an upward revision to unemployment expected alongside only modest improvement to the inflation outlook, since the recent 4.8% increase in the minimum award wage is expected to limit how much that forecast can improve. The third is the tone of the Governor's decision statement and subsequent press conference, where the Bank is expected to repeat its standing message that it remains prepared to raise rates further if needed to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.That combination of signals has left economists split. Economists at each of the four major banks now believe the cash rate has peaked, with modest cuts possible from around the middle of 2027. A separate, sizeable group of economists continues to argue further tightening will be required, pointing to persistently low unemployment, a 4.8% minimum wage increase, broader wage growth running at 3.5% to 3.75%, and sticky services inflation as reasons the current forecast path may prove too optimistic.A rate cut is not expected to feature meaningfully in today's discussion, with housing market softness likely to be viewed by the Board as assisting the return of inflation to target rather than as a reason to ease policy. The case for holding rests on the Board having more time to assess the effects of its earlier tightening before needing to act again, a view aligned with both market pricing and the majority of economist forecasts, while the case for a further hike centres on inflation still running 0.75 to 1 percentage point above target after an already extended period above goal.Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock  This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Valve has reportedly suffered a data leak linked to the delivery of Steam hardware in Europe. In the morning, European customers received an email from the Steam developer that the third-party company CEVA Logistics, responsible for shipping Steam hardware across Europe, was targeted in a cyberattack between July 29 and August 1, 2026. The leak has raised concerns for people who have bought devices such as the Steam Deck through the service.To deliver devices, CEVA needs customer details; thus, the attackers might have accessed a particular set of information tied to hardware orders, including full name, street address, postal code, city, country, phone number, email address linked to the Steam account, and the price of the ordered product. However, Valve assured that CEVA never had access to payment details, Steam passwords, Steam Guard codes, or any other Steam account data. So, customers can rest assured that none of them got hacked. Anyway, Valve warned customers that more phishing attempts may happen. The scammers may try email, text, or phone that references their hardware order to appear legitimate. The company is reportedly pushing CEVA for details of the attack to understand the breach's scope and method. This will help the company take necessary steps to protect customer data from further risk. How Stolen Delivery Data Can Enable ScamsA stolen delivery record can be useful to scammers. They may use real order details to make fake messages look genuine. A buyer could receive an email or text claiming that a package is delayed and asking them to pay a small fee.Another trick could involve fake tracking links. These links may lead users to a website that looks like a real delivery page. Once there, victims could be asked for card details, passwords, or other private information.Steam hardware buyers should be careful with unexpected delivery messages. It is safer to check an order through the official Steam account instead of clicking a link in a message.Also Read: OpenAI Slows Astra Development After Critical Cybersecurity ReviewWhat Buyers Should Do NowThe reported leak is a reminder that even trusted delivery networks can become targets. Buyers should watch their inboxes and phones for strange messages, especially if they recently ordered Steam hardware.Valve customers should avoid sharing payment details through links sent by unknown sources. A real order may give scammers enough information to make a fake message look convincing.Join our WhatsApp Channel to get the latest news, exclusives and videos on WhatsApp

EUR/CHF is testing recent highs while Williams %R flashes overbought momentum. Will sellers step in or will the rally extend?

Revolut Bank S.A. (RBSA) has been awarded a full banking licence in France, the company announced on Monday. The move marks a major step for the fintech giant’s growth in Europe. The licence was approved after a joint review by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution (ACPR) and the European Central Bank (ECB), with final approval given by the ECB Governing Council on August 10, 2026. Revolut already has around 30 million customers across Western Europe, with almost 8 million of them joining in 2025 alone. This new licence helps cement its position as one of the region’s biggest retail banks. The company plans to invest more than €1 billion in Western Europe and create over 600 new jobs. It will also open a new regional headquarters in Paris in 2027. RBSA will begin serving customers first in France, before expanding to other countries such as Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Meanwhile, Revolut’s existing Lithuanian entity, Revolut Bank UAB, will continue to support operations across the rest of the European Economic Area. Both entities will be supervised by the ECB, forming what Revolut calls a “dual hub” model designed for large scale growth. Nik Storonsky, Revolut’s founder and CEO, said the licence gives the company “the foundation to build the next generation of banking” for its millions of customers in Western Europe. He added that France’s strong financial industry and regulatory system make it an ideal base for future growth. With banking licences now held in both Europe and the United States, Revolut continues to expand its global reach, currently operating in 40 markets worldwide.The post Revolut Bank Receives Full Banking Licence in France first appeared on LeapRate | Online Trading Industry News, Broker Intelligence & Fintech Analysis.

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The resistance near 1.4080 stopped USDCAD bulls in their tracks, leading to the pair's second weekly drop in a row. Is the support near 1.3900 likely to hold now? Read in our latest Elliott Wave analysis. To access this article you need to have an active subscription The post Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD – August 10th, 2026 appeared first on EWM Interactive.

Markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike.Kevin Warsh has so far placed greater emphasis on price stability than investors initially expected.De-escalation between the US and Iran could reduce energy prices and inflationary pressures.The euro area could benefit more from lower energy prices because of its dependence on energy imports.A downward reassessment of the Fed rate path represents one of the main medium-term risks for the dollar.Fed expectations remain supportive for the dollar US 10-year Treasury yields, daily data, source: TradingView The US dollar has benefited in recent weeks from relatively high Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may not yet be finished with its fight against inflation. Markets continue to leave room for another US rate hike. However, this pricing could become increasingly difficult to sustain if tensions in the Middle East ease and inflationary pressures begin to moderate. In such an environment, the dollar’s current advantage over the euro could gradually diminish. The dollar’s recent strength largely reflects monetary policy expectations. When Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, there were concerns that he might eventually come under pressure from Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. So far, this scenario has not materialised.Warsh has repeatedly emphasised the importance of restoring price stability. With inflation still elevated, investors therefore continue to see a possibility that the Fed could tighten monetary policy further. This has helped US yields remain relatively high and provided support for the dollar.The July meeting changed the picture The July FOMC meeting introduced the first signs of uncertainty into this narrative. Warsh did not use the meeting to prepare markets explicitly for another rate hike. His reluctance to provide clear forward guidance weakened expectations of imminent tightening, although it did not remove them completely.This approach makes incoming economic data even more important. Inflation, employment and wage growth will increasingly determine how investors assess the next Fed move. Strong data could quickly rebuild expectations of another hike, while softer readings could have the opposite effect and put pressure on the dollar. Market pricing of the future path of US interest rates (Fed Funds Futures), source: Bloomberg Middle East tensions remain an inflation risk Developments in the Middle East are another important part of the monetary policy outlook. Problems surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support energy prices and create additional short-term inflation risks.A lasting agreement between the US and Iran could change this backdrop significantly. A reopening of the Strait and a reduction in geopolitical risk would likely put downward pressure on oil prices. That, in turn, would weaken one of the key arguments for keeping US monetary policy exceptionally restrictive.Lower energy prices would favour the euro area A de-escalation of the conflict could be particularly important for Europe. The euro area remains heavily dependent on imported energy, while the US is in a much stronger position due to its domestic energy production.Lower oil and gas prices would reduce Europe’s import costs, improve the outlook for businesses and households and support economic activity. From this perspective, the euro could benefit more than the dollar from a lasting improvement in the geopolitical situation.However, there is also a monetary policy trade-off. Lower energy prices would reduce inflationary pressure in the euro area and could therefore weaken expectations of further ECB tightening. This could limit some of the positive impact on the single currency.Are markets too hawkish on the Fed? The biggest question is whether current expectations for US interest rates have become too aggressive. Investors are effectively combining expectations of significantly lower inflation over the coming quarters with the possibility of additional Fed tightening. These two assumptions may eventually become difficult to reconcile.If US inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s target and energy prices fall, the case for another rate increase should weaken considerably. Warsh’s relatively constructive assessment of the disinflationary impact of productivity improvements, including those related to artificial intelligence, could reinforce this argument.Could EUR/USD gradually move higher? Over the coming quarters, the key risk for the dollar is therefore a reassessment of the expected Fed policy path. The market could gradually move from pricing additional tightening towards a prolonged pause and eventually renewed rate cuts.Such a shift would reduce the dollar’s interest-rate advantage and could create room for EUR/USD to move higher. The upside for the euro may nevertheless remain gradual, as declining inflation in Europe could simultaneously encourage investors to price a more accommodative ECB policy.Technical outlook for EUR/USD From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently trading at an interesting juncture. Following the strong gains seen in late July, the pair is now undergoing a short-term consolidation between 1.1500 and 1.1560. The exchange rate is also trading just below a descending trendline connecting the highs from late January 2026 with those recorded in April and May. EUR/USD exchange rate, daily data, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Lower capital for tokenisation and stablecoins welcomed, but cap will curb bank involvement for now

Key takeaways USD/JPY rebound stalls: The 3-day rebound is losing momentum at the key 158.55 inflexion level, with technical signals pointing to bearish reversal risk.UST-JGB yield gap narrows: The 2-year yield spread has fallen to 2.64%, which could support renewed yen strength if the narrowing continues.NFP is the key catalyst: A break below 157.95 could expose 157.30 and 156.32, while a move above 158.55 could open the door to 159.45. The recent three-month period of yen weakness from May 2026, which saw the JPY plummet to a 40-year low of 163.99 per US dollar on 23 July 2026, was “recused” by a two-day FX intervention that included a historical US-Japan joint effort on 30 July and 31 July that strengthened the yen to 155.23 on Monday, 3 August 2026.However, the yen’s strength stalled, and USD/JPY staged a 3-day rebound of 2.08% (low to close), closing at 158.46 on Thursday, 6 August 2026, nearly giving up half of the gains seen in the yen from last week’s FX Intervention.As speculators focus on long-term dynamics, such as geopolitical uncertainty from the US-Iran situation that can dampen Japan’s growth prospects, this, in turn, delays the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) normalisation of its monetary policy stance of gradual interest rate hikes.The UST-JGB yield gap is the next focus for traders Fig. 1: 2-YR US Treasuries/JGBs yield spread with USD/JPY as of 7 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The rise of the USD/JPY (yen weakness) from 152.71 to July’s 40-year high print of 163.99 has been accompanied by a widening of the monetary policy sensitive 2-year yield spread between the US Treasury Notes (UST) and the Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) from 2.12% to 2.82% over the same period (see Fig. 1).Interestingly, the 2-year UST-JGB yield spread (gap) has started to reverse down (narrowed) right below a key medium-term resistance of 3.02% to now trade at 2.64% at this time of writing, which in turn reinforces a major bearish breakdown of the USD/JPY from its former ascending trendline support from April-May 2026.Hence, a continuation of the narrowing of the 2-year UST-JGB yield spread towards 2.05% may see a revival of USD/JPY weakness, given a key risk event later at 8.30 pm SGT: the US non-farm payroll release for July (57K: June, consensus: 80K).Let’s now decipher the potential short-term expectations (1 to 3 days) of USD/JPY from a technical analysis perspective. USD/JPY – short-term bullish momentum is losing strength at inflexion point Fig. 2: USD/JPY minor trend as of 7 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 3-day rally in USD/JPY from Monday, 3 August 2026, to a low of 155.23 has reached an inflexion level of 158.55 defined by a confluence of elements (the former major ascending trendline from 22 April 2025 low, former minor swing low of 31 July 2026, and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of prior down move from 30 July 2026 high to 3 August 2026 low).In addition, the recent price action in USD/JPY is likely to have taken the form of a minor “bearish flag” configuration (dead cat bounce), suggesting a pause in an ongoing short-term downtrend, coupled with a bearish divergence in the hourly RSI momentum indicator at its overbought region (see Fig. 2).Therefore, given that USD/JPY price action has pushed up to the inflexion level of 158.55 (current intraday high of 158.57 at this time of writing) amid bearish elements, USD/JPY may be due for an imminent minor bearish reversal.A break below the potential downside trigger level of 157.95 (200-day moving average) may reinforce the bearish reversal scenario, exposing the intermediate supports of 157.30 and 156.32 in the first step.On the other hand, clearance and an hourly close above the key short-term pivotal resistance at 158.55 would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the door to a further potential squeeze up towards the medium-term resistance at 159.45. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.