Gold traded lower on MCX on August 14 amid a higher US dollar and 10-year bond yields, despite the US inflation data for July easing expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve in September. August gold futures fell 0.66% to Rs. 1,52,449. September silver futures declined 0.99% to Rs. 2,33,106. Meanwhile, Brent crude futures rose 0.08% to $87.14 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edged lower by 0.14% to $81.36 per barrel.Domestic Gold Prices24K gold fell by Rs. 71 to Rs. 1,52,890 per 10 grams, while 22K gold also declined by Rs. 65 to Rs. 1,40,150. By city, Mumbai and Kolkata mirrored prices at Rs. 1,52,890, while Delhi was at Rs. 1,53,040, and Chennai at Rs. 1,53,170.US Gold PricesUS gold prices slipped on Friday as investors locked in profits after mild US inflation data pushed bullion to its highest level in more than two months and weakened the case for a near-term Federal Reserve ​rate hike. Spot gold was down 0.5% at $4,326.75 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery fell nearly 1% to $4,382.50.Spot ⁠silver slipped ​0.4% to $64.17 per ounce. Platinum slipped 0.3% to $1,711.84, while palladium ​was steady at $1,306.98.Also Read: Nifty-Gold Ratio Falls to 1.6: Is India’s Stock Market Rally About to Begin?Key Levels to Watch"There is some episodic and more speculative capital that's maybe ​taking a bit of profit in gold, because there's not a near-term catalyst quite so potent immediately in front of us," said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at finance content network Tastylive. "Gold may be setting ​up, with some choppy trading along the way, for a meaningful rally now. And if ​we can take out $4,400, I don't think $5,000 by year-end is any kind of a stretch."On MCX, gold faces resistance near the falling trendline around Rs. 1,56,000 and witnessed profit booking, with prices now finding immediate support near Rs. 1,52,600. A sustained break below this level could extend the correction towards Rs. 1,50,000. However, the broader structure remains constructive as prices continue to trade above key EMAs.

Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

This builds from the technical position from yesterday here: Gold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataAs mentioned then, one of the potential plays for gold was:"With price action stalling in the past few days, the buying momentum is starting to run out of oomph. If we do see a break back below the 100-hour moving average (red line), that could signal further downside to around $4,325 with plenty of scope for a further retreat amid a lack of other buying catalysts for the time being. In short, buyers are still looking poised but have to do more before they run out of steam and lose some near-term control - which could lead to a bit of a retreat in the latter stages this week."That seems to taking shape with the drop now taking gold to test the 10 August lows $4,313-20 region. But in the bigger picture, the break below the 100-hour moving average (red line) is the most crucial thing. That now sees the near-term bias switch from being more bullish to more neutral instead.[Gold (XAU/USD) hourly chart]So, what's next for the precious metal?Buyers have had a good run last week to break back above $4,200 on a technical break. However, the buying momentum looks to stall amid a lack of further positive developments from the US-Iran conflict as well as sellers defending the 100-day moving average.That now sees some near-term exhaustion creep in as seen with the hourly chart above.While there is some minor support in the $4,310-25 level, I wouldn't pin that as being a key technical chokehold for gold prices looking to the end of this week and also for next week.The battle now turns to whether gold will push back to retest its 100-hour moving average (red line) or fall to test further downside at the 200-hour moving average (blue line) instead.A push back to the upside and break will invite another test of the 100-day moving average, seen at $4,386 currently.Meanwhile, a renewed downside test and break of the 200-hour moving average leaves plenty of room for gold to track back towards $4,200-25. And on a break of that, we could see a quick return towards $4,000 next. That should US-Iran developments keep as it is and underpin a more hawkish outlook for the Fed i.e. higher yields. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

USD/CAD is testing a key area as conflicting technical signals and upcoming catalysts set the stage for its next move.

Understanding Forex Order Flow Analysis on Major Currency Pairs After spending thousands of hours analyzing order flow across both MNQ scalping and forex markets, I’ve discovered that the principles of institutional trading remain remarkably consistent across all instruments. The difference lies in understanding the unique characteristics of each major currency pair and how institutional money flows through these markets. Order flow trading isn’t about predicting price movements—it’s about reading what’s actually happening in real-time. When you understand how to analyze order flow on major forex pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD, you gain the same edge that institutional traders possess: the ability to see where real money is being committed. In this comprehensive guide, I’ll break down exactly how I analyze order flow on major forex pairs, the specific patterns I look for, and the institutional setups that consistently produce high-probability trades. These are the same techniques I teach in my courses and apply daily in both forex and futures trading. Why Major Forex Pairs Are Ideal for Order Flow Analysis Major currency pairs offer several distinct advantages for order flow analysis that you won’t find in exotic pairs or even some futures markets: Liquidity and Volume Transparency The major pairs—particularly EUR/USD, which accounts for roughly 28% of all forex volume—provide the liquidity necessary for clean order flow readings. When institutional players enter or exit positions, the volume signature is clear and unambiguous. This is critical because order flow analysis relies on reading genuine institutional activity, not retail noise. I’ve found that the same footprint reading techniques I use for MNQ scalping translate beautifully to major forex pairs, but with one key difference: forex moves are often more gradual, giving you additional time to identify absorption zones and exhaustion patterns. Predictable Institutional Behavior Central banks, hedge funds, and multinational corporations create consistent order flow patterns in major pairs. Unlike crypto or exotic currencies where flows can be erratic, major pairs show institutional footprints that repeat with reliable frequency. For example, EUR/USD consistently shows absorption at key psychological levels (.00 and .50 handles), while GBP/USD displays violent stop hunts before major directional moves. Understanding these pair-specific characteristics is essential for professional-level order flow analysis. The Four Pillars of Forex Order Flow Analysis My approach to forex orderflow analysis rests on four fundamental pillars that work together to create a complete picture of market structure: 1. Volume Delta Analysis Volume delta—the difference between buying and selling volume at each price level—reveals the true battle between bulls and bears. On major forex pairs, I focus specifically on: Cumulative Delta Divergences: When price makes new highs but cumulative delta doesn’t confirm, institutional money is likely distributing to retail buyers. I’ve taken some of my highest-probability short entries on EUR/USD when price breaks above key resistance but delta shows progressive weakening. Delta Spikes at Key Levels: Sudden volume delta spikes often indicate institutional entries. On GBP/USD, I watch for 3x-5x average delta spikes at session highs/lows—these frequently mark the beginning of significant reversals. The beauty of volume analysis in forex is that major pairs trade nearly 24 hours, creating multiple opportunities to catch these institutional footprints across London, New York, and Asian sessions. 2. Absorption and Exhaustion Patterns Absorption occurs when large institutional orders repeatedly defend a price level, absorbing all incoming market orders without allowing price to break through. This is perhaps the most reliable pattern in order flow trading. On EUR/USD, I look for absorption at round numbers and previous day’s high/low. The pattern shows high volume but minimal price movement—institutions are building positions. When absorption completes and price finally breaks the level, the move is typically explosive because all that absorbed volume now fuels the directional run. Exhaustion patterns are the opposite—high volume with extended price movement that suddenly stops. On USD/JPY, exhaustion often appears at the end of Asian session trends, providing excellent counter-trend scalping opportunities for the London open. 3. Footprint Chart Patterns Footprint charts display volume at each price level within each time period, revealing the microstructure of order flow. For major forex pairs, I use 1-minute and 5-minute footprint charts to identify: Imbalances: When one side of the footprint shows significantly more volume than the other, it indicates aggressive institutional buying or selling. Three consecutive imbalanced footprints in the same direction on EUR/USD often precede 20-30 pip moves. POC Migrations: The Point of Control (highest volume node) migration tells you where institutions are repositioning. When POC consistently moves higher on successive footprints, institutional accumulation is occurring—a strong continuation signal. Stacked Imbalances: Multiple price levels showing the same directional imbalance create a “stacked” pattern. On GBP/USD and other volatile major pairs, stacked imbalances often precede the fastest moves, sometimes 40-60 pips in under 10 minutes. 4. Institutional Level Interaction Major forex pairs respect certain levels with remarkable consistency because institutional algorithms are programmed to interact with these zones: – Previous day’s high, low, and midpoint – Weekly and monthly opening prices – Round psychological numbers (.00, .50, .0000, .5000) – Fibonacci retracements from major moves (particularly 61.8% and 78.6%) – Previous week’s value area high/low The magic happens when order flow signals align with these institutional levels. A delta divergence at previous day’s high on EUR/USD carries significantly more weight than the same pattern in the middle of the range. Major Pair Specific Order Flow Characteristics Each major currency pair has unique order flow behaviors based on the underlying economies, trading hours overlap, and institutional participants involved. EUR/USD: The Order Flow Benchmark EUR/USD is the gold standard for forex orderflow analysis. With the tightest spreads and highest volume, order flow signals here are crystal clear. Key Characteristics: – Shows clean absorption at .00 and .50 handles – London open (3 AM EST) often shows institutional repositioning – News events create the cleanest stop-hunt patterns – Cumulative delta is highly reliable due to enormous volume My Favorite EUR/USD Setup: During London open, wait for price to spike above/below the Asian range with strong delta in one direction. When you see absorption (high volume, no price movement) at the extreme, prepare for the reversal. I typically enter when the first footprint shows stacked imbalances in the opposite direction, targeting the opposite side of the Asian range for 15-25 pips. GBP/USD: The Volatility King GBP/USD offers larger ranges but requires more patience. Order flow patterns develop more slowly but produce bigger moves when they resolve. Key Characteristics: – Extreme stop hunts before major moves – Volume delta spikes can be 5x-10x average – Respects previous day’s high/low with religious consistency – Best order flow signals during London session (naturally) The key to GBP/USD is waiting for exhaustion after the initial spike. Institutions frequently run stops above obvious levels, then reverse hard. The footprint will show massive absorption at the extreme—this is your signal the hunt is complete. USD/JPY: The Risk Sentiment Indicator USD/JPY moves with risk sentiment and equity markets, making it unique for order flow analysis. I often watch USD/JPY order flow to confirm what I’m seeing in MNQ futures. Key Characteristics: – Strong correlation with US equity index futures – Tends to trend during Asian and US sessions – Shows excellent POC migration patterns during trends – Central bank intervention leaves massive order flow footprints When USD/JPY order flow diverges from equity futures, pay attention—it often predicts the next major move in risk assets. AUD/USD: The Commodity Currency AUD/USD order flow is heavily influenced by commodity prices (particularly iron ore and gold) and Chinese economic data. Key Characteristics: – Shows strong trending behavior during Asian session – Absorption patterns are exceptionally reliable – Responds to changes in gold and copper order flow – Lower volume than EUR/USD but cleaner institutional patterns For order flow traders, AUD/USD offers the advantage of trending consistently within sessions, making continuation setups particularly profitable. High-Probability Order Flow Setups for Major Pairs Let me share the specific setups I use regularly that combine order flow analysis with institutional price levels: The Absorption Reversal Setup This is my bread-and-butter setup across all major pairs: 1. Identify key institutional level (previous day high/low, round number, weekly open) 2. Wait for price to reach the level with strong directional momentum 3. Watch footprint for absorption—high volume, minimal price progress 4. Confirm with delta divergence (price making new extreme, delta declining) 5. Enter when first stacked imbalance appears in reversal direction 6. Stop beyond the absorption zone, target opposite side of recent range This setup works on any timeframe from 1-minute scalping to 15-minute position trades. I’ve built entire trading sessions around catching 2-3 of these setups on EUR/USD during London/New York overlap. The Delta Momentum Continuation Setup Perfect for trending sessions: 1. Identify established trend on higher timeframe (15-min or 1-hour) 2. Wait for pullback to key support/resistance within the trend 3. Watch for delta spike in trend direction at the support/resistance 4. Confirm with POC migration in trend direction on footprint 5. Enter when price breaks pullback high/low with volume confirmation 6. Trail stop using delta—exit when delta divergence appears This setup captures those explosive continuation moves that can deliver 30-50 pips in minutes on GBP/USD or 20-30 pips on EUR/USD. The Stop Hunt Fade Setup GBP/USD is famous for this pattern: 1. Identify obvious stop levels (previous day high/low, swing points) 2. Wait for spike through the level with extreme volume 3. Watch for immediate absorption—price can’t maintain beyond the level 4. Confirm with exhaustion footprints (high volume, no follow-through) 5. Enter on first sign of reversal (stacked imbalances opposite direction) 6. Stop 10-15 pips beyond spike extreme, target 25-40 pips in fade direction The psychology here is beautiful—retail traders who got stopped out now chase the breakout, providing liquidity for institutions to reverse against them. Integrating Order Flow with Volume Profile Volume Profile and order flow analysis are perfect complements. While footprint charts show you real-time order flow, Volume Profile reveals where the most volume has accumulated over longer periods. On major forex pairs, I use the following Volume Profile approach: Session Volume Profile: I build separate profiles for Asian, London, and New York sessions. The Value Area High/Low from each session becomes key reference points for order flow analysis in subsequent sessions. High Volume Nodes (HVN): These act as magnets. When price approaches an HVN from the previous session, I watch order flow closely for absorption—institutions often defend these levels aggressively. Low Volume Nodes (LVN): These are breakout zones. When order flow shows strong directional conviction at an LVN, price typically accelerates through because there’s minimal volume to absorb the momentum. The combination of Volume Profile structure with real-time order flow analysis creates a three-dimensional view of the market that retail traders simply don’t have. Common Order Flow Mistakes on Forex Major Pairs Even experienced traders make these errors when transitioning to order flow analysis: Overtrading Low-Conviction Signals Not every delta divergence or imbalance deserves a trade. I learned this the hard way, taking 15-20 trades per day and giving back profits on marginal setups. Now I focus exclusively on A+ setups where order flow aligns with institutional levels during high-volume sessions. The same discipline I apply to futures trading applies here—quality over quantity always wins. Ignoring Pair-Specific Characteristics A setup that works perfectly on EUR/USD might fail on GBP/USD due to different volatility profiles. You must adapt your order flow interpretation to each pair’s personality. GBP requires wider stops and larger confirmation, while EUR/USD offers tighter, more precise entries. Fighting Central Bank Intervention When central banks intervene (particularly in USD/JPY and EUR/USD), normal order flow patterns break down. The footprint will show absolutely massive volume at a specific level—this isn’t a normal absorption pattern, it’s intervention. Don’t fade it; trade with it until the intervention footprint stops appearing. Neglecting Session Transitions Order flow behaves differently during session transitions (Asian to London, London to New York). Volume characteristics change, and absorption patterns that work during high-volume sessions can fail during low-volume transitions. I’ve learned to significantly reduce position size during the hour before and after major session changes. Tools and Platforms for Forex Order Flow Analysis You need the right tools to properly analyze order flow on major forex pairs: Footprint Charting Software:

Interactive Brokers announced Thursday that it has added access to the Bucharest Stock Exchange, allowing eligible clients to trade Romanian equities alongside products from more than 170 global markets. The automated global broker said the expansion offers access to what was one of Europe’s strongest-performing emerging markets of 2025.  Romania was elevated to MSCI’s Advanced Frontier Market status while the country’s BET index reached record highs in 2025 and continued to grow through the first half of 2026. “Adding the Bucharest Stock Exchange expands the choices available to our clients and reinforces our commitment to providing the broadest possible access to global markets,” stated Milan Galik, chief executive of Interactive Brokers. “Romania is one of Europe’s stronger emerging economies, and we’re pleased to make this market available to our clients through the same platform they use to access exchanges around the world.” Bucharest Stock Exchange Chief Executive Remus Vulpescu welcomed the broker to Romania’s capital market, saying every new gateway matters.  He added that the market had channelled more than €5 billion into the Romanian economy over the past 12 months and delivered a total return of more than 80%, which he described as the highest among EU main market indices.The post Interactive Brokers Adds Access to Bucharest Stock Exchange first appeared on LeapRate | Online Trading Industry News, Broker Intelligence & Fintech Analysis.

Key offshore rates likely to fall in new regime’s scope, potentially pushing them out of bounds

In this Elliott Wave update we identify the key level the bulls must protect to stay in control of EURUSD after today's CPI report. To access this article you need to have an active subscription The post Elliott Wave Update of EURUSD – August 12th, 2026 appeared first on EWM Interactive.

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Markets continue to price in the possibility of another Fed rate hike.Kevin Warsh has so far placed greater emphasis on price stability than investors initially expected.De-escalation between the US and Iran could reduce energy prices and inflationary pressures.The euro area could benefit more from lower energy prices because of its dependence on energy imports.A downward reassessment of the Fed rate path represents one of the main medium-term risks for the dollar.Fed expectations remain supportive for the dollar US 10-year Treasury yields, daily data, source: TradingView The US dollar has benefited in recent weeks from relatively high Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve may not yet be finished with its fight against inflation. Markets continue to leave room for another US rate hike. However, this pricing could become increasingly difficult to sustain if tensions in the Middle East ease and inflationary pressures begin to moderate. In such an environment, the dollar’s current advantage over the euro could gradually diminish. The dollar’s recent strength largely reflects monetary policy expectations. When Kevin Warsh took over as Fed Chair, there were concerns that he might eventually come under pressure from Donald Trump, who has repeatedly called for lower interest rates. So far, this scenario has not materialised.Warsh has repeatedly emphasised the importance of restoring price stability. With inflation still elevated, investors therefore continue to see a possibility that the Fed could tighten monetary policy further. This has helped US yields remain relatively high and provided support for the dollar.The July meeting changed the picture The July FOMC meeting introduced the first signs of uncertainty into this narrative. Warsh did not use the meeting to prepare markets explicitly for another rate hike. His reluctance to provide clear forward guidance weakened expectations of imminent tightening, although it did not remove them completely.This approach makes incoming economic data even more important. Inflation, employment and wage growth will increasingly determine how investors assess the next Fed move. Strong data could quickly rebuild expectations of another hike, while softer readings could have the opposite effect and put pressure on the dollar. Market pricing of the future path of US interest rates (Fed Funds Futures), source: Bloomberg Middle East tensions remain an inflation risk Developments in the Middle East are another important part of the monetary policy outlook. Problems surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support energy prices and create additional short-term inflation risks.A lasting agreement between the US and Iran could change this backdrop significantly. A reopening of the Strait and a reduction in geopolitical risk would likely put downward pressure on oil prices. That, in turn, would weaken one of the key arguments for keeping US monetary policy exceptionally restrictive.Lower energy prices would favour the euro area A de-escalation of the conflict could be particularly important for Europe. The euro area remains heavily dependent on imported energy, while the US is in a much stronger position due to its domestic energy production.Lower oil and gas prices would reduce Europe’s import costs, improve the outlook for businesses and households and support economic activity. From this perspective, the euro could benefit more than the dollar from a lasting improvement in the geopolitical situation.However, there is also a monetary policy trade-off. Lower energy prices would reduce inflationary pressure in the euro area and could therefore weaken expectations of further ECB tightening. This could limit some of the positive impact on the single currency.Are markets too hawkish on the Fed? The biggest question is whether current expectations for US interest rates have become too aggressive. Investors are effectively combining expectations of significantly lower inflation over the coming quarters with the possibility of additional Fed tightening. These two assumptions may eventually become difficult to reconcile.If US inflation continues to move towards the Fed’s target and energy prices fall, the case for another rate increase should weaken considerably. Warsh’s relatively constructive assessment of the disinflationary impact of productivity improvements, including those related to artificial intelligence, could reinforce this argument.Could EUR/USD gradually move higher? Over the coming quarters, the key risk for the dollar is therefore a reassessment of the expected Fed policy path. The market could gradually move from pricing additional tightening towards a prolonged pause and eventually renewed rate cuts.Such a shift would reduce the dollar’s interest-rate advantage and could create room for EUR/USD to move higher. The upside for the euro may nevertheless remain gradual, as declining inflation in Europe could simultaneously encourage investors to price a more accommodative ECB policy.Technical outlook for EUR/USD From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently trading at an interesting juncture. Following the strong gains seen in late July, the pair is now undergoing a short-term consolidation between 1.1500 and 1.1560. The exchange rate is also trading just below a descending trendline connecting the highs from late January 2026 with those recorded in April and May. EUR/USD exchange rate, daily data, source: TradingView Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.