US March NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 97.9 expectedA tricky time for the oil market as the "smart money" has moved onInvestors surveyed in early April were most bearish in 10 months - BofAECB's Rehn: Interest rate decisions are not locked in beforehandThree tankers were said to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on first day of US blockadeUSDJPY pulls back as the US dollar weakens on renewed US-Iran optimism. What's next?US and Iran negotiation teams reportedly set to return to Islamabad for talks this weekSpain March final CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 14 April 10am New York cutOil prices fall back on renewed hope of a US-Iran dealIt's been a pretty boring session in terms of news and data releases. The only data we got were the final Spanish CPI and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The Spanish CPI was revised higher, while the US NFIB saw a notable drop in sentiment due to the US-Iran war. The market reaction was rather muted to both releases as traders remain focused on US-Iran negotiations given that the outcome will shape future growth and inflation expectations.On the news front, we just got further reports confirming a second round of US-Iran talks later this week. It's not yet clear when, but most reports are looking for Thursday onwards. This optimism is keeping the markets in risk-on mode as the US dollar stays on the backfoot, stocks continue to get bid, oil prices remain under pressure and precious metals extend the gains on easing financial conditions.In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US PPI. The weekly ADP data hasn't been a market-moving release, but it's been pointing to a resilient and even improving labour market.The US PPI is unlikely to be a market-moving report, much like the US CPI last Friday, because everyone knows it's going to be hot due to the US-Iran war. That's old news. What matters now is what happens with the US-Iran negotiations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 98.8Full report hereThe NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”This is not a market-moving report and a drop in optimism in March was widely expected for obvious reasons (US-Iran war). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US-Iran war has made things very complicated for the oil market, not least needing to balance out supply and demand dynamics. But from a financial perspective, it is also getting a bit dicey in trying to price out the difference between paper oil and physical oil. I talked a bit about the massive $30 to $50 gap in oil prices last week here and how that might impact trading conditions in the coming week.While the market mood remains calmer on renewed hopes of a US-Iran deal, there's still much to be careful as we slowly approach the cutoff date for WTI crude May contracts next week. When expiry day comes, think of it as anyone who is still caught in a short position and not having the oil for physical delivery will have no choice but to scramble to buy back their contract at any price to exit.And considering the price gap, it could be a case where whoever does have their pants down are going to be in for a liquidation event for the ages. Rightfully, the only people left holding these contracts nearing the cutoff date will be those who actually want or have the oil to deliver on them. Think refiners and producers here in this instance.So, how will we know if there is going to be a liquidation event where many traders get caught on the wrong side of the trade?We can't know for sure but there are certain tell signs we can look at.The first is to look and CME volumes and open interest on the May and follow up June contracts. In the case of WTI crude, we can see that:The volume are still high for the May contracts are still high, suggesting that traders are still trading the headlines with regards to the US-Iran conflict. However, open interest at the close continues to fall significantly while that of the June contracts continue to push up.The latter is a clear enough suggestion that "smart money" has already moved on from the May contracts to June/July contracts to avoid the chaos in the coming week. In essence, one can argue that June is arguably the proper front-month contract for WTI crude at this point.As for Brent crude, the cutoff date is at the end of the month and so the open interest still very much favours the June contract for now:The issue with open interest continuing to decline further is that it is also a signal that the market is getting thinner i.e. lower liquidity. And that means price action will be more susceptible to volatility spikes, that especially if the price gap to the physical market is still present and there are traders wanting out before the cutoff.The open interest shift is a good suggestion that "smart money" or big financial players are already trying to skip the drama and focus on betting on prices. It leaves the May contract left for actual physical players as noted above.So come next week, there could be a jarring moment on the screens where we could see oil prices spike up to around the $110 to $130 range right before the May contract expires and then come back down to the $90+ range once we get into the June contract.It's not so much of a case that the price "crashed" after a massive spike but rather the futures/paper market resetting upon the rollover. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Net 36% of investors expect weaker global economy, shifting from net 7% expecting growthGlobal equity allocation drops to net 13% overweight from 37% in February58% of investors expect Fed to cut rates and 46% see ECB hiking over next 12 months34% of investors expect oil at $80-90 per barrel by end of 2026The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Recent examples include the precious metals crash in late January or the US dollar surge in March. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.The US-Iran war led to a repricing in growth and inflation expectations and we've seen that reflected in market prices. This is now priced in and the markets are looking forward to the end of the conflict and eventually better growth and lower inflation as oil prices ease. In fact, the contrarian calls here are short oil as the US-Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, and long stocks as growth expectations get revised higher.This is of course conditional to the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait, but for now the markets are already positioning into that outcome. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

A rise in 2026 inflation is unavoidable but medium-term effect is still unclearECB is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict and the spillover effects on the Eurozone economyMonetary policy should not be based on a single price, such as oil but the overall picture of the economyRectifying damage from Middle East war to energy production infrastructure will continue long after the acute phase of the warIn case the war is prolonged and causes second-round effects on prices and wages, and inflation expectations start to unanchor, monetary policy will be tightenedECB policymaker Olli Rehn reiterated that the path for interest rates remains flexible, adding that future policy decisions are not locked in beforehand. While financial markets have been pricing in rate hikes following the US-Iran conflict, Rehn maintains that the Governing Council will continue to make assessments on a meeting-by-meeting basis.A primary concern for the central bank is the unavoidable surge in inflation projected for 2026. Current estimates suggest that consumer prices could spike toward 3.1% in the second quarter of the year, driven largely by volatile energy prices. Rehn noted that while this short-term rise is now a certainty, the medium-term effect remains unclear. The central bank is focused on ensuring that these temporary price shocks do not seep into broader wage-setting processes or long-term inflation expectations, which would require a policy response.The ECB is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East with US-Iran negotiations now in focus. Beyond the immediate impact on oil and gas prices, the conflict has introduced a layer of "stagflationary" risk with rising costs and slowing growth. The ECB has already revised its growth projections downward for 2026, citing the dampening effect the war has had on both business confidence and household purchasing power.A long-term challenge identified by Rehn is the physical destruction of energy production infrastructure within the conflict zone. He warned that rectifying the damage caused by the Middle East war will continue long after the acute phase of the military conflict has passed. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The report is from earlier today with it noting that there were three tankers that entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of the US naval blockade. It is believed that the three vessels were not heading to Iranian ports, so they were not stopped by the blockade that was put in place.That being said, these vessels appear to have some ties to Iran. So, it is something perhaps worth noting. The tankers in question are:Peace Gulf, a medium-range Panama-flagged tanker, which typically moves Iranian naphthaMurlikishan, formerly known as MKA, a handy tanker that has transported Russian and Iranian oilRich Starry, a medium-range tanker, but one who has been sanctioned by the US alongside its Chinese owner Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd for having dealt with Iran previouslyAccording to shipping data, Peace Gulf was reported to be headed towards the Hamriyah port in the UAE. Meanwhile, Murlikishan is set to be heading to Iraq to load ​fuel oil while Rich Starry is believed to have loaded cargo at its last port of call in the UAE and would be the first ‌vessel to ⁠make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began.As much as the major headlines are capturing most of the broader market interest, the shipping data is worth looking at to get a better feel of the situation on the ground. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar opened the week higher yesterday following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. The gains didn’t extend further though as the ceasefire remained intact and we got reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels.There were still risks of another escalation after Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports, but everything turned around in the first part of the US session as we started to get positive headlines and the greenback sold off across the board.In fact, we got the first boost to risk sentiment after the New York Post reported that Iranian officials were studying abandoning uranium enrichment as a US condition for ending the war. The moves then extended as we got further reports confirming the ongoing negotiations between US and Iran and finally a second round of talks was set for this weekend. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, despite the growing expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target. Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike.For now, the BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady and let things settle after the conclusion of the war. What the BoJ could do at the April meeting is to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if they think they have the right conditions in place. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced around the 158.00 handle and almost reached the 160.00 level before retracing. The recent consolidation might have formed a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the 158.00 support. If the price falls back to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 level next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected the downward trendline near the 160.00 handle and eventually broke below the upward trendline that was defining the pullback. The sellers stepped in around the downward trendline and increase the bearish bets on the break of the upward trendline targeting the 158.00 support. If we get another pullback into the downward trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 162.00 handle. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we don’t have clear levels where to lean on other than the resistance around the 159.40 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline in case the pullback extends and target the 158.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This is mostly a repeat to what we've heard from earlier in the day, that both sides are eyeing talks on Thursday in Islamabad.But as the echo chamber gets louder, we're seeing market players pick up on the optimism and running with it. It's a funny thing that even though the latest development is essentially a reset to last week, markets are growing even more optimistic of a positive outcome. All this while the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure for longer.I would argue that reservations are still warranted, not least with there needing to be more positive progress before next week for the oil market. From earlier: Oil prices fall back on renewed hope of a US-Iran dealBut at the same time, it would be bad form to underestimate the odds of a peace deal of sorts here. That especially since US president Trump is wanting to push for it so badly. It feels like we will get there eventually. The only question is how and what happens next on the Strait of Hormuz?For now, market players are just tuning out the questions and noise but choosing to run with the buzz instead.The market mood continues to pick up on headlines like these. The dollar is slipping lower across the board while stocks in Europe are kick starting the day on a more positive note. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.1% currently. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil is down well over 3% to $95.60 at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.3%HICP +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.5%Core annual inflation is seen at 2.9% and that is a step up from the 2.7% reading in February. As higher energy prices bump up headline inflation, it will eventually also spill over to core prices down the road. That even more so the longer that this US-Iran conflict keeps up and the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure.For now though, the broader market mood is still one that is leaning more towards being more optimistic. However, the reality of the situation remains that nothing will change until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. Traders and investors are holding out hope but is it only a matter of time before it all comes tumbling down? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Spanish CPI. Given that it's the final data and that the market focus remains solely on the US-Iran negotiations, the market reaction will likely be muted. As mentioned, the focus remains on US-Iran negotiations and yesterday's news of a second round of talks and a better chance of reaching a deal raised market hopes for an end to this conflict soon. It's been a very headline-driven market, so keeping a close eye on the news is critical. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US PPI. The NFIB is never a market-moving report and given that it's March data, we can expect it to surprise to the downside although that's now old news. The weekly ADP data hasn't been a market-moving release, but it's been pointing to a resilient and even improving labour market.The US PPI is unlikely to be a market-moving report, much like the US CPI last Friday, because everyone knows it's going to be hot due to the US-Iran war. That's old news. What matters now is what happens with the US-Iran negotiations as that's going to shape future growth and inflation expectations. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Rehn (dovish - voter)08:50 GMT/04:50 ET - BoE's Mann (neutral - voter)14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Makhlouf (neutral - voter)14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)14:00 GMT/10:00 ET - BoE's Greene (hawkish - voter)16:05 GMT/12:05 ET - BoE Governor Bailey (neutral - voter)16:15 GMT/12:15 ET - Fed's Goolsbee (neutral - non voter)16:45 GMT/12:45 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Paulson (dovish - voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Collins (hawkish - non voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Barkin (neutral - non voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter)21:00 GMT/17:00 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.The market mood has swung around since this same time yesterday, with optimism bouncing back after US president Trump talked up hopes for a deal with Iran. Adding to that is reports that we are likely to see a second round of negotiations later this week. Both sides are reportedly weighing their options before potentially meeting back at the round table on Thursday in Islamabad again.For now, the US blockade remains and the Strait of Hormuz is still in de facto closure. However, markets are looking to move on already but is that really the right move? Only time will. There's a ticking bomb in the oil market with the May contract futures set to run its course next week. So, there's that to consider. And what bodes ill for oil prices will have major reverberations for broader market sentiment too, so keep that in mind.In the major currencies space, the dollar has fallen back with EUR/USD jumping back up above 1.1700 overnight to hang around 1.1760 levels now. There aren't any major expiries that will be of much influence today. As such, trading sentiment will largely be dictated by the dollar mood and headline risks that may drop along the session.But as we've seen as of late, it is usually when Trump wakes up that we'll get added volatility to markets. In the meantime, it may be a bit of a rangy and cagey session in Europe up next.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

WTI crude is down a little over 2% today to just below $97 now, effectively closing the Monday gap higher. This comes after some positive headlines yesterday, with reports of a second round of talks later this week. For the most part, markets seem to be taking their cue from what US president Trump has to say.Trump is now saying that the US is in touch with "the right people" from Iran and believes that they will agree on de-nuclearisation. He also seems eager to move on already as he mentions that "we may stop by Cuba after we're finished with this".All that being said, is still all too optimistic a take?The issue with how markets are responding still for now is that it doesn't so much so tie back to the reality of the situation.There is still no movement along the Strait of Hormuz and nobody in the region can get their oil and gas out. So long as that remains the case, the physical market will continue to reflect skyrocketing prices and eventually something has got to give. The North Sea premium is still sitting between $30 to $50 per barrel at the moment.Traders are hopeful and are continuing to bet on the situation improving in the next week and in the coming month(s). But when it is time to pay the piper, something's gotta give. And the fact remains that the oil market is still looking very vulnerable to a major reckoning when the time comes.The broader market mood is giving an extremely clear hint that everyone wants to and is ready to move on from this war. That is reflected in the optimistic risk rebound we're seeing in the past day, despite the headlines needing to catch up.But come what may, it's all a question of what happens next with the Strait of Hormuz. As much as Iran might agree to any terms to de-escalate the conflict, it is hard to imagine them giving up control over the waters. That is their only and most important bargaining chip in all of this.So if the situation doesn't switch up, you'd have to think markets will face a big slap of reality soon enough. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US Treasury’s Bessent backs “wait and see” on ratesChina exports miss, imports surge as trade surplus shrinks sharplySome China trade data dribbling out. Q1 trade data shows imports surge, exports stay firmHSBC warns peace deal needed to restore energy flows and curb inflationAustralia business confidence plunges to -29 as Iran war shock hits outlookVance comments have driven down oil, driven up risk assets. Trump will give him a cookie.PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8593 (vs. estimate at 6.8173)US-Iran talks end without deal but leave door open for further dialogue.Monetary Authority of Singapore tightens policy as inflation rises, flags slower growthKatayama flags global talks, no new policy signals in her commentsVance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader dealPush-pull data: UK retail sales rise but consumer spending weakens, fuel costs hit demandRBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy.More on US Energy Sec Wright forecasting higher oil prices aheadWar drags on, recession risk rise & global trade growth slows sharply, fall signs expectedTop Trump official says gas prices will rise even higher in coming weeksICYMI: IEA signals further oil reserve releases possible as Iran war disrupts supplyinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump upbeat after a call from IranSummary:Diplomacy hopes lift sentiment; oil eases on Iran talk optimism US-Iran talks ongoing, with potential new round this week Central banks remain hawkish (RBA, MAS tighten stance) Australian business confidence collapses sharply China trade shows weak exports, strong imports USD weakens for seventh straight session; FX broadly firmerThere were some tentative rays of optimism for markets, driven by renewed hopes of diplomacy in the Middle East.AP reported, citing U.S. officials, that another round of talks between Washington and Tehran could take place as soon as Thursday. This followed Reuters reporting that negotiations remain alive despite the lack of a breakthrough over the weekend. U.S. Vice President JD Vance reinforced the constructive tone, saying talks made “a lot of progress” and that a broader deal remains possible, with the “ball in Iran’s court.”Markets took this as a modest positive. Oil prices eased on the back of the comments, with the prospect of a diplomatic resolution helping to temper immediate supply concerns tied to the Strait of Hormuz. That said, key sticking points remain, including Iran’s nuclear programme, the reopening of Hormuz, and sanctions relief. Reports suggest the sides came close to an agreement before talks stalled, with dialogue continuing via intermediaries. On the geopolitical front, attention also turns to talks involving Israel and Lebanon, with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio set to participate in preparatory discussions aimed at addressing tensions with Hezbollah.In central bank developments, the tone remains firmly hawkish. RBA Deputy Governor Hauser warned inflation is still too high and flagged a stagflation risk, adding bluntly that rates will need to rise further to bring CPI back to target. Meanwhile, MAS tightened policy by increasing the slope of its S$NEER band, citing rising imported inflation.Data flow reinforced the challenging macro backdrop. Australian business confidence collapsed in March, with the NAB index plunging to -29 from 0, one of the sharpest declines on record, even as conditions held steady at +6. The AUD slipped modestly despite the hawkish RBA tone, with NZD also softer.China’s trade data showed a clear divergence. Exports rose just 2.5% y/y (vs 8.6% expected), while imports surged 27.8% (vs 11.2%), sharply narrowing the trade surplus. The data points to resilient domestic demand but weakening external conditions amid energy-driven cost pressures.In FX, the dollar remained on the back foot, heading for a seventh straight daily decline. The DXY hovered near its lowest levels since early March, while the euro, sterling, and yen all firmed.Equities reflected a stabilisation in sentiment, with Japanese and South Korean stocks trading near pre-war highs.On the political front, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a parliamentary majority, strengthening his position amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Bessent urges Fed to “wait and see” on rate cuts Sees recent inflation spike as temporary Confident inflation expectations remain anchored Notes strong economic momentum into early 2026 Geopolitical risks complicating policy outlookU.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signalled a cautious approach to monetary policy, arguing that the Federal Reserve should adopt a “wait-and-see” stance before considering any interest rate cuts amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.Speaking in an interview with Semafor, Bessent said recent inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict should not be viewed as persistent, expressing confidence that the latest price increases are unlikely to become embedded in longer-term inflation expectations. His comments suggest policymakers may view the current energy-driven inflation spike as temporary rather than structural.At the same time, Bessent highlighted the underlying strength of the U.S. economy heading into the early part of the year. He noted that economic conditions through January and February were robust, implying that the domestic economy entered the current geopolitical shock from a position of resilience.The remarks come as markets continue to assess the impact of rising energy prices and supply disruptions stemming from tensions in the Middle East. While higher oil prices risk lifting headline inflation in the near term, Bessent’s comments indicate a preference for patience, allowing policymakers time to evaluate whether these pressures feed through more broadly into wages and core inflation.His “wait-and-see” stance aligns with a broader narrative emerging from policymakers that premature easing could risk reigniting inflation, particularly if expectations become unanchored.Overall, Bessent’s comments suggest that while the inflation outlook remains uncertain, policymakers are not yet convinced that current price pressures warrant a shift toward rate cuts, reinforcing a cautious and data-dependent policy approach.Bessent does not set Fed monetary policy. Though he'd like to. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China exports miss sharply as imports surge, narrowing trade surplus.Summary:Exports +2.5% y/y (vs +8.6% expected) Imports +27.8% y/y (vs +11.2% expected) Trade surplus $51.1bn (vs $108.2bn expected) Yuan exports stronger due to FX effects Strong domestic demand, weaker external demand China’s March trade data showed a sharp divergence between imports and exports, with demand holding up domestically while external momentum disappointed expectations.In dollar terms, exports rose just 2.5% year-on-year in March, well below the Reuters poll forecast of 8.6%, signalling a loss of momentum in external demand. In contrast, imports surged 27.8% y/y, far exceeding expectations of an 11.2% increase, pointing to strong domestic demand and higher commodity-related inflows.As a result, China’s trade surplus narrowed significantly to $51.13 billion, undershooting expectations of $108.2 billion and marking a sharp contraction from prior levels.In yuan terms, the picture appears stronger at first glance, with exports reported up 23.8% y/y and the trade surplus at CNY 354.75 billion. However, this divergence largely reflects currency effects. Yuan-denominated data captures trade flows in local currency, while dollar-denominated figures are influenced by exchange rate movements. A weaker yuan versus the U.S. dollar can inflate the local-currency value of exports and imports, even if underlying trade volumes are softer.The data suggests that while China’s domestic demand, particularly for commodities, remains robust, external demand is facing headwinds, likely tied to global uncertainty and the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict.Overall, the miss on exports alongside a surge in imports points to a narrowing external buffer, with the trade balance compressing more sharply than expected and raising questions about the sustainability of China’s export-led support for growth. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s yuan-denominated imports rose 19.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, while exports increased 11.9%, according to customs data.Total trade (imports + exports) exceeded CNY 11 trillion for the first time on record, with growth marking the strongest pace in five years. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

HSBC warns energy shock will persist without Middle East peace deal.Summary:HSBC warns peace deal key to restoring energy flows Oil near $100 as Hormuz disruption persists ~10mb/d supply already impacted, more at risk Energy-driven inflation seen rising Growth outlook increasingly uncertain Central banks may stay on holdHSBC Chair Brendan Nelson warned that restoring global energy flows hinges on a peace agreement in the Middle East, with the ongoing conflict posing a growing risk to inflation and global growth.Speaking at the HSBC Global Investment Summit in Hong Kong, reported by Reuters, Nelson said energy markets will remain under pressure for as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began and are holding near $100 per barrel, reflecting sustained concerns over supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows.Nelson cautioned that current forecasts for global growth, trade, and inflation should be treated with care, as the full economic impact of the conflict has yet to materialise. He highlighted the risk that prolonged disruption will amplify second-round effects, with higher energy costs feeding into broader inflation while simultaneously weighing on economic activity.The outlook for policy is also shifting. Nelson suggested that tighter financial conditions—driven by higher market rates—could keep central banks in the United States, Europe, and the United Kingdom on hold this year, even as inflation risks remain elevated.The backdrop has been further complicated by the breakdown in diplomatic efforts and the escalation in maritime tensions. The U.S. Navy has moved to enforce a blockade around the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying concerns over supply.Analysts estimate that around 10 million barrels per day of crude supply have already been effectively removed from the market, with the potential for an additional 3 to 4 million barrels per day to be curtailed if the blockade persists.Overall, Nelson’s remarks underline a fragile global outlook, where energy market disruption is increasingly shaping inflation dynamics and constraining growth prospects. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australian business confidence collapses as energy shock crushes outlook.Earlier:RBA’s Hauser warns of stagflation risk as energy shock hits economy. says not sure interest rates are at the right level to tame inflation, adds rates need to bring inflation to the 2-3% target and that Q2 headline inflation is around 5% due to fuel costsSummary:Business confidence plunges to -29 (from 0 prior). Drops to its lowest since the pandemic. Second largest monthly drop on record Business conditions down to +6 (prior +7) Sales ease slightly (+11 vs +12) Profits fall to +1 (from +4) Cost pressures surge, margins squeezedAustralian business confidence collapsed in March, posting one of the sharpest deteriorations on record as firms reacted to the economic shock stemming from the Iran war and surging energy prices.The NAB Business Confidence Index plunged 29 points to -29 in March, down from 0 in February. The scale of the decline ranks as the second largest monthly fall in the survey’s history, comparable to periods of acute financial stress, and signals a rapid and broad-based deterioration in sentiment across the business sector.In contrast, business conditions held steady at +6, highlighting a growing disconnect between current activity and forward-looking expectations. While firms are still reporting reasonable operating conditions, confidence has collapsed as they brace for a more challenging environment ahead.Underlying details point to mounting cost pressures and margin compression. Sales eased slightly but remained relatively firm at +11, down from +12, while profitability deteriorated more sharply, with the profits index falling to +1 from +4. This suggests businesses are increasingly struggling to absorb rising input costs.Purchase costs surged at a quarterly pace of 3%, driven in part by higher energy prices, but firms appear to be finding it difficult to pass these increases through to consumers. Retail price growth slowed to 0.5% from 0.9%, indicating limited pricing power and intensifying pressure on margins.The backdrop is further complicated by tighter monetary policy, with the RBA having raised rates again in March to 4.1%, alongside expectations that fuel-driven inflation could push headline CPI toward 5% in the second quarter.Taken together, the data paints a stark picture, businesses are still operating at reasonable levels today, but confidence has effectively collapsed as firms anticipate a sharp deterioration in conditions ahead. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Its difficult not to read nefarious motives into comments from senior US officials given the stink of insider trading within the administration. Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader dealBut, leaving that aside for now, Vance has been a tailwind for risk. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 1bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.