At some point the dust will settle on the Iran war and I expect the Canadian dollar to be a beneficiary. Yes, that will mean lower oil prices and that will weaken Canada's top export but the war has also exposed one-fifth of the world's oil to be at risk of supply disruption.With that and a more energy-friendly government in Canada, buyers from Europe and Asia could look to Canada as an investment destination. Moreover, there should be positive global growth impacts from an end to the war that will help other Canadian exports.The big drag weighing on the loonie this year is the USMCA trade agreement. At the moment, there are no positive indications and the clock is ticking. I think the baseline has to be that Trump will engage in brinksmanship, threats and escalation before trying to reach a deal. That's his typical pattern and I wouldn't expect anything else this time around. The only caveat to that is that there has been a serious boycott of the US and US products in Canada; so much so that tourism is down 34% from two years ago. Canadians are the number one tourists to the US and that's a big hit to certain parts of the USA, including Republican-voting districts.Comments from Prime Minister Mark Carney on the weekend, called the structural relationships with the USA a 'weakness' and reaffirmed his intention to move Canada away from it. That doesn't sound like someone who thinks a deal is coming.For now though, the chart is improving. It's been one-way traffic since the start of April and the entire Iran war move has been retraced. With that done, it gets a bit more difficult from here but the momentum is inarguable. On the downside, the support doesn't really kick in until 1.3500. I find it hard to see a short-term break of 1.3467 unless/until there is some clarity on the trade negotiations. I think that will eventually happen but it's an H2 trade but when it comes, I think there is potential for a fall to 1.25. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with a lengthy post on Truth Social:The DEAL that we are making with Iran will be FAR BETTER than the JCPOA, commonly referred to as “The Iran Nuclear Deal,” penned by Barack Hussein Obama and Sleepy Joe Biden, one of the Worst Deals ever made having to do with the Security of our Country. It was a guaranteed Road to a Nuclear Weapon, which will not, and cannot, happen with the Deal we’re working on. They actually gave $1.7 Billion Dollars in “GREEN” Cash, loaded into a Boeing 757, and flown to Iran for Iranian leadership to spend anyway they saw fit. He emptied out all of the Cash from Banks in D.C., Virginia, and Maryland. Those Bankers said they’ve never seen anything like it before. In addition, Hundreds of Billions of Dollars was paid to Iran. If I did not terminate that “Deal,” Nuclear Weapons would have been used on Israel, and all over the Middle East, including our cherished U.S. Military Bases. The Fake News, like Lightweight Washington Post “Journalist” David Ignatius, loves to talk about the JCPOA, knowing that it was DANGEROUS, and a Complete Embarrassment to our Country. If a Deal happens under “TRUMP,” it will guarantee Peace, Security, and Safety, not only for Israel and the Middle East, but for Europe, America, and everywhere else. It will be something that the entire World will be proud of, instead of the years of Embarrassment and Humiliation that we have been forced to suffer due to incompetent and cowardly leadership! President DONALD J. TRUMPHe is getting defensive because this deal is going to look much like the JCPOA and the US will be giving Iran much more cash, though it sounds like it will be released slowly and conditional on certain uses. But the thing is: Cash is fungible so if the government can only use this cash on things like food, then it will free up other cash for weapons.But let's forget the politics and get to the reason I want to highlight this post: He continues to focus entirely on nuclear weapons. That's the one angle where he can spin this war into a win. He can get Iran to make nuclear commitments and Trump can say "I stopped them from getting nuclear weapons" and he can sell that to his base.The good news there is that Iran appears willing to give up its nuclear stockpile or blend it down. That's a pathway to a deal.Trump is also lashing out at Democrats in yet-another post:The Democrats are doing everything possible to hurt the very strong position we are in with respect to Iran. Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been. I read the Fake News saying that I am under “pressure” to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly! Time is not my adversary, the only thing that matters is that we finally, after 47 years, straighten out the MESS that other Presidents let happen because they didn’t have the Courage or Foresight to do what had to be done with respect to Iran. We’re in it, and it will be done RIGHT, and we won’t let the Weak and Pathetic Democrats, TRAITORS ALL, who for years have been talking about the Dangers of Iran, and that something has to be done, but now, since I’m the one doing it, belittle the accomplishments of our Military and the Trump Administration. This is being perfectly executed, on the scale of Venezuela, just a bigger, more complex operation. The result will be the same. In my First Term, I built the Greatest Military our Country has ever seen, including adding Space Force. In my Second Term, I am properly and judiciously using our Military to solve problems left to us by others of far less understanding or competence. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMPFor me, the positive part here is "it will all happen relatively quickly". This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Senate Banking Committee gavels in at 10 am ET tomorrow for Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing, and traders should set a calendar reminder. Powell's term expires May 15. Whoever sits in that chair next inherits an inflation rate that's been above target for five years running, a jobs market wobbling, oil elevated on the back of the Iran conflict, and a President who has made "cut rates" something between a policy preference and a personal demand.Warsh has been conspicuously quiet since the nomination, which means tomorrow is the first real look at where he stands. The market already knows the pre-nomination Warsh: Fed needs "regime change," discard the stagflation forecast, AI will crush inflation, shrink the balance sheet, trim the deadwood. That's the hawkish-sounding resume. The dovish tell is his argument that rates should come down because productivity is about to surge. Convenient that it lines up with what Trump wants. Senators will notice and he will be asked, this report from Politico shows he will at least go through the motions.I don't know if anyone will believe what he's going to say but his confirmation is basically a foregone conclusion once Trump drops the probe into Powell. Tomorrow is the hearing, not the vote. What bothers me here is that his testimony is leaking to Politico, which is already bad form in a position that needs strict control of information.The one question that actually matters for FX and rates: independence. Does Warsh defend it, dodge it, or genuflect? How hard will he go and will he be convincing without saying something that will lead Trump to pull his nomination? Bessent has already said "wait and see" on cuts given Iran. If he signals he's ready to deliver what the White House is asking for, watch the long end. Curve steepeners have been the trade and they'll get more interesting.Given all the drama around Iran, this event isn't going to be as interesting as it usually is.Update more Warsh:Fed stretched credibility after financial crisisIndependence is not threatened when elected officials state their views on ratesInflation is a choice and the Fed must take Independence doesn't extend to all mandated functions, including public money and regulationHe called this the most-significant hinge point in a generationCNBC has obtained a full copy of the speech but only offered up some headlines. Warsh continues to be optimistic about technology (AI) and thinks it will add to growth and lower inflation.I don't love these comments. If Warsh truly wanted to appear as independent, he would make at least a token effort to defend Powell. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here's a survey that's half good news, half outdated-on-arrival.The Bank of Canada's Q1 Business Outlook Survey landed this morning and the headline is that business sentiment has recovered to roughly where it sat before Trump's trade war kicked off. Fewer firms are worried about tariffs, sales outlooks are up for a third straight quarter, investment intentions are the strongest since trade tensions began, and hiring intentions are normalizing.The share of firms planning or budgeting for a recession over the next 12 months collapsed from 22% to 9% — the lowest since the question started being asked in 2023. That's a notable move.The catch: the bulk of the interviews wrapped up on February 25, before the war in the Middle East started. So the BoC did what any good central bank does when its flagship survey gets overtaken by events — it went back and made follow-up calls to 20 of the most exposed firms between March 18 and 27.From that, input costs are already moving for anyone touching fuel, fertilizer, freight or aluminum. Farmers are mostly fine for this planting season because they've already bought fertilizer, but that's a timing quirk, not a reprieve. Transportation firms say they can pass through higher fuel costs via contract clauses. Most everyone else is staring at margin compression because demand is too soft, consumers are too tapped out, and competition is too stiff to push prices through cleanly.Inflation expectations ticked up at the near-term horizon — driven entirely by firms surveyed in March after the war started. Longer-horizon expectations sit between 2.5% and 3%, broadly unchanged. So it's an energy shock story, not a reset of the inflation regime. At least not yet.A few other nuggets worth flagging:Wage growth expectations are steady at around 3.5%, and firms expect wages to grow slower over the next 12 months than they did over the past 12. That's the kind of detail the Bank of Canada actually cares about.On USMCA, which gets its first joint review on July 1, most firms see it as a risk rather than something actively shaping near-term plans. But most also expect the review to leave Canadian exporters facing higher average tariff rates than today. Not exactly a vote of confidence.Trade diversification away from the US remains mostly theoretical. A handful of firms are dipping toes into non-US markets, but the rest say it's either not worth the effort or the transportation costs don't work. The bottom line is that this is a survey the BOC would have loved in isolation — sentiment recovering, investment picking up, recession fears fading, inflation expectations anchored. Unfortunately, everything changed at the end of February. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump says it's 'highly unlikely' he will extend negotiations and that he won't open the Strait until a deal is signed. He said a meeting "could benefit everyone involved".Tasnim reports at the same time that Iran isn't keen to participate in negotiations, and that they are a waste of time.Al Jazeera reports:Tehran believes that as long as Washington deals with mistaken calculations, the negotiations are nothing but a waste of time.A further separate report says it's still undecided whether Vance will go and that he's not in the air. This directly contradicts what Trump told the NY Post earlier, though it could be OpSec rather than some kind of spin.Update: The New York Times now reports that Iran is planning to attend the meetings and traveling Tuesday. The report says that the parliamentary speaker won't attend unless JD Vance does. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Tech downturn: Energy pops while semiconductor sector strugglesThe stock market witnessed a turbulent day as tech giants found themselves in decline, while the energy sector shone brightly. The market displayed mixed signals, manifesting the volatile and uncertain dynamics of today's trading landscape.? Technology Sector: Clouds Over SemiconductorsSemiconductors: Once again, the semiconductor sector faced significant declines. Notable players such as Nvidia (NVDA) fell by 1.31%, while Broadcom (AVGO) and Micron Technology (MU) dropped significantly, by 1.89% and 1.43% respectively. These declines reflect apprehensions surrounding supply chain disturbances and demand fluctuations.Software and Infrastructure: While Microsoft (MSFT) dipped by 0.74%, optimism was somewhat maintained by gains in cybersecurity firms like Palo Alto Networks (PANW), up 0.81%.? Energy and Industrials: A Bright SpotEnergy: In a contrasting trend, the energy sector soared with Exxon Mobil (XOM) increasing by 1.38% and Chevron (CVX) climbing 0.89%. Rising oil prices have contributed to this bullish performance, reinforcing energy's firm position in investor portfolios despite broader market instabilities.Industrials: Major industrial stocks like General Electric (GE) and Raytheon Technologies (RTX) posted moderate gains of 0.84% and 0.24%, buoyed by recovery prospects and cyclical demand upticks.? Consumer Stocks and Financials: Mixed ReactionsConsumer Electronics: Apple (AAPL) managed a positive position with a gain of 1.21%, indicating robust demand dynamics and investor confidence in its market position.Financials: Banks displayed mixed results with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) leading the charge at +1.37%, while Bank of America (BAC) slipped by 0.72%, highlighting sector-specific volatility.? Overall Market Analysis and RecommendationsThe fusion of bearish activities within technology, coupled with bullish pushes in energy, marks today's trading as a reflection of broader economic concerns and sector-specific stories. The performances signal caution within tech, while energy and industrial rebounds offer opportunities to capitalize on rising cyclical trends.Strategic Advice: Investors should consider balancing portfolios with attention to energy sectors while staying cautious of tech volatility. Continuous monitoring of geopolitical developments and supply-demand changes is vital for seizing emerging market opportunities. Visit InvestingLive.com for real-time updates and insights to make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The ceasefire is scheduled to end late today after 14 days but if talks are scheduled for Wednesday then presumably that will be extended.That said, I don't know how good CNN's reporting is here because an hour ago, Trump spoke to the New York Post and said the US delegation was on the way to Pakistan:“They’re heading over now,” Trump said. “They’ll be there tonight, [Islamabad] time.”But now CNN reports that they haven't left.Now maybe that's some kind of security or OpSec but it's yet-another example of the confused reporting and classing narratives from this conflict.There are also tweets out there about Trump saying an Iran deal will be signed today but he simply hasn't said that. It's not clear if markets bit on those headlines because stock futures did rise after them. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This Iran war saga is unlike anything in modern markets. The amount of information, disinformation and utter nonsense is unprecedented. It's a cesspit of information that's nearly impossible to swim through without being dragged down into an abyss of uncertainty and second guessing. The market today is ignoring the collapse of Friday's heralded reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and instead focusing on the ongoing ceasefire and talks in Pakistan. Trump today said two important things:JD Vance is heading back to Pakistan for talksHe believes they're talking to the right peopleThe market also believes that Trump is about power, self-preservation and boosting the stock market above all. A reversal of the ceasefire and scorched earth infrastructure war would send oil above $150 with no going back.With that, the market continues to conclude that all setbacks are temporary and that a ceasefire is coming. The problem is that Iran and the US will need to agree on the terms. Sure, both sides may want peace but the details are critical -- particularly from Iran's angle. They don't want to agree to terms and then end up back in war or under sanctions in the near future.The crude market tells the story as it opened at $91.20 but that's been the high so far. After a few hours of consolidation above $88, it's now broken into the opening gap and is up $3.55 to $87.42.That same sort of optimism is clear in bonds and stock markets. The S&P 500 is down just 6 points to 7120 despite a monster rally in the past two weeks, including on Friday. Today is a pivotal day for the war trade and hopefully we get some clarity. There are legitimate reasons for optimism but a 14-day rally in the Nasdaq is very, very tough to chase without some clarity. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I don't take this as a meaningful headline but oil prices are ticking lower on it. A US plane arrived in Islamabad today' that presumably carrying JD Vance. He wouldn't be going there if Iran hadn't already agreed to talks, despite some of the rhetoric that's been floating around.Update: Trump confirms that Vance is on the way.The same Iranian official also said that 'positive efforts' are underway by Pakistan to end the US blockade of Iran. Several reports in the past hour pushed back against the idea that Pakistan had asked the US to abandon its blockade.Another tidbit that just crossed is that Iran has opened the main airports in Tehran. Would they be doing that without strong signs of a deal, or real fears that the US would attack them during negotiations again?A third good sign comes from Israel-Lebanon where Israeli media reports that a second round of talks will take place Thursday in Washington. That suggests the ceasefire will be extended, at least.Update: From the JD Vance report above in the New York Post, the President also talked with the reporter about the talks and goals and said:“Get rid of their nuclear weapons. That’s all very simple,” he said. “There will be no nuclear weapon.” ... Asked whether the US knows who is leading Iran, Trump said: “We have pretty good ideas, and we think we’re dealing with the right people.”There were questions on the weekend about whether there was a big rift between negotiators and the IRGC. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Here is a look at the companies reporting this week, with a particular focus on the macro. It's all likely to be overshadowed by the Middle East but hopefully the war ends and we can get back to earnings fundamentals.Monday, April 20After close: Steel Dynamics, Alaska AirQuiet start to the week. STLD gives a read on steel demand and tariff pass-through, while ALK offers an early look at domestic travel trends ahead of the bigger airline prints Tuesday. Cleveland-Cliffs already posted earnings Monday morning and was upbeat about steel prices and demand but shares are down 2.5% pre-market.Tuesday, April 21Before open: GE Aerospace, RTX, UnitedHealth, 3MAfter close: Capital One, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical, Interactive BrokersIndustrials and healthcare headline. GE Aerospace and RTX frame the aftermarket and defense spend picture — both have run hard, so guides matter more than prints. UnitedHealth is the landmine after recent MLR pressure battered the managed care complex; any Optum commentary moves the whole group. After the bell, Capital One reads the subprime consumer and credit normalization, while United Airlines gives the travel demand and fuel pass-through story. Delta was upbeat on flight demand last week.Wednesday, April 22Before open: Boeing, AT&T, GE Vernova, Philip MorrisAfter close: Tesla, IBM, ServiceNow, Texas InstrumentsThe big one. Boeing pre-market for 737 MAX production rate and free cash flow trajectory, GE Vernova as the cleanest power/grid electrification play. After the close is where the tape turns — Tesla is the single biggest risk event of the week, with options implying roughly a 6% move. IBM, ServiceNow, and Texas Instruments in the same evening give a triangulated read on enterprise AI spend and the analog semi cycle. A soft TXN guide would undercut the broadening-recovery narrative that's been supporting semis. Tesla shares pre-market on Monday are down 0.4% despite an announcement of robotaxi rollouts in two cities.Thursday, April 23Before open: American Express, Honeywell, Blackstone, Thermo Fisher, American AirlinesAfter close: Intel, SAP, Newmont, Digital RealtyAmex billed business is the premium consumer tell, Honeywell rounds out late-cycle industrials, and Blackstone for private credit and real estate marks plus fundraising pace. Intel after the close is the wildcard: consensus is adjusted EPS of $0.02, collapsing 87% year-over-year, on sales down 2% to $12.4 billion, but the stock is up roughly 85% YTD, so 18A progress and foundry losses carry the print. Digital Realty gives another AI datacenter leasing datapoint alongside the Vertiv commentary from Wednesday. American Airlines is less business-oriented so it could offer some clues on middle class flight demand.Friday, April 24Before open: Procter & Gamble, HCA Healthcare, SLB, CharterP&G is the staples bellwether — organic growth mix between volume and price matters most, especially given FX. SLB takes on added weight with the Strait of Hormuz situation back in focus; international activity commentary and any Saudi/offshore color will move the oil services group. HCA for hospital utilization trends to close out the healthcare reads from earlier in the week. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.5%CPI m/m +0.9% vs +1.1% expectedPrior CPI m/m +0.5%Core measures:BOC core 2.5% vs 2.3% priorBOC core m/m +0.2% vs +0.4% priorCore CPI 0.0% m/m +0.2% vs priorCPI median +2.3% vs +2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%)CPI trim +2.2% vs 2.3% expected (prior was 2.3%)CPI common 2.6% vs 2.4% priorGasoline prices +5.9% vs -14.2% y/y priorGasoline prices +21.2% m/m vs +3.6% m/m prior -- the largest one-month increase on recordShelter +1.7% vs +1.5% y/y prior Canadian inflation reaccelerated in March, with headline CPI climbing to 2.4% year-over-year from 1.8% in February. The jump was entirely an energy story, and a predictable one at that. Gasoline prices surged 21.2% on a monthly basis — the largest one-month increase on record — as the Middle East conflict sent crude sharply higher. Strip out gasoline and the picture looks very different: CPI ex-gasoline actually decelerated to 2.2% from 2.4%, pointing to underlying disinflation that remains very much intact.The core measures are where the real story lies, and they undershot expectations across the board. CPI-trim fell to 2.2% from 2.3%, CPI-median held at 2.3%, and while CPI-common ticked up to 2.6%, the trend in the Bank of Canada's preferred gauges is unmistakably toward target. Monthly core momentum also softened, with BOC core m/m at just +0.2% after +0.4% prior. Given the scale of the energy shock, the failure of core to blow through expectations is genuinely encouraging and suggests the pass-through from gasoline to broader prices has been limited so far.The GST/HST base-year noise is finally behind us. March was the last month distorted by the tax holiday that ran from December 2024 to February 2025, and the unwind pulled restaurant meal inflation down to 3.2% from 7.8%. From April onward, policymakers will finally get clean year-over-year comparisons — though the removal of the consumer carbon levy in April 2025 will also fall out of the 12-month window, which will push energy readings higher again next month, though that's counteracted by a new 10-cent per litre fuel tax holiday that starts today and runs until September.For the Bank of Canada, this is a complicated but ultimately reassuring report. Headline will stay noisy as long as Middle East tensions persist, but the core story supports the case that inflation is converging toward 2%. The loonie should take this as mildly dovish though it's certainly overshadowed by the Middle East today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The report cites two Pakistani officials in saying that "Iranian authorities have expressed willingness to send a delegation for a second round of talks in Islamabad this week". Adding that there is "cautious optimism" between the US and Iran but could not share details of travel plans for either side due to security reasons.Iran may have put up a stubborn front earlier in sending out a strong message. However, we have come to see that this hard line response has always been their negotiating position from the start of this war. As mentioned earlier:"Iran continuing to maintain a hard line and uncompromising stance has always been their negotiating position from the get go. So, this is very much consistent with that brand. It was the same before the first round of talks but eventually there was some form of dialogue at the end of the day. So, it could very much be the case again this time around later this week.That being said, having a conversation and agreeing to certain terms are two different things. And for now, there's still a major gap on two key issues between the US and Iran.First, it is that the US wants Iran to abandon its nuclear ambition and that doesn't seem likely to happen now. It is still unsure whether there is power scuffle among the major ranks in Iran and who is in charge of aligning the view. But as things stand, the messiness in itself is enough to dictate that this particular issue will remain a sticking point in talks.As for the second, it is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran's most important leverage for negotiations and everything else in this conflict. To expect them to open up the waterways again without restriction is not something that they are willingly going to do." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Are markets waiting for Trump to come to the rescue once again?Oil prices rebound on escalating US-Iran tensions as ceasefire deadline approachesIran continues to reaffirm that US demands have been "unserious" and "unrealistic"Differences over nuclear programme remains unresolved, says senior Iranian officialPakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talksBOJ likely to keep monetary policy unchanged in April - reportJapan issues tsunami warning after major 7.5 magnitude quake hitsGerman producer prices in March see largest monthly jump since August 2022Markets:Brent crude up 4.7% to $95.10, WTI crude (June) up 5.9% to $87.50US dollar little changed and keeping more mixed on the dayMajor indices in Europe nursing 1% losses, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%US 10-year yields up 2.2 bps to 4.265%Gold down 0.8% to $4,790, Silver down 1.9% to $79.25Bitcoin up 2.0% to $75,300It's a risk-off mood in markets but not really as bad as you would think if going by the headlines.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday last week was brief and did not last a day. That as Iran reverted back to close the waterway amid their dissatisfaction with the continued US naval blockade. In turn, they're pushing an uncompromising position and maintaining that there are gaps on key issues. In that lieu, Tehran is saying that they don't see a need for talks so long as Washington continues with its threats.That as we move another day closer to the ceasefire in hostilities, which will expire on Wednesday.Still, it would seem that markets are keeping the faith that something good is still around the corner. Sure, we are seeing a dent to risk sentiment today. However, it really isn't as bad of a knock all things considered.After hitting record highs last week and posting near 12% gains in the past three weeks, S&P 500 futures are only down 0.5% on the day.Meanwhile, oil prices may have opened with a gap higher but are still not quite producing the surging volatility that we saw amid the height of the panic during the war so far. Brent crude is up 4.7% to $95.10 while the June contract for WTI crude is up 5.9% to $87.50. On the latter, do be reminded that the May contract will expire later today.In other markets, major currencies did not get up to much with the dollar also not really moving on the session. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1772 while USD/JPY is also just marginally up by 0.1% to 158.85 on the day. Besides that, USD/CAD is down 0.1% to 1.3685 and AUD/USD is down 0.1% to 0.7158 currently. All in all, no major significant movements in the FX space.As for precious metals, we are seeing gold marked down by 0.8% to $4,790 and silver down 1.9% to $79.25 in response to the risk retreat. But similar to the mood in equities, the drop here isn't really that bad. Even with the near 2% fall today, it still isn't enough to undo the Friday jump in silver prices.Are markets hoping for Trump to deliver another TACO moment in the coming day(s)? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 eventually reached a new all-time highs after a crazy rally since the start of April on growing expectations of an end to the war. The playbook has been very similar to April 2025 when we first get Trump backtracking on tariffs (this time Trump started talking about ceasefire) and then negotiations that kept traders speculating on a resolution. On Friday, it looked like a deal was within reach after a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring. In return, the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump denied the release of the funds but more reports citing officials talked about this potential compromise. Iran continued to say that transfer of enriched uranium has never been on the table.The optimism then gathered steam after Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Trump followed up with a post on Truth Social thanking Iran and even calling it the “Strait of Iran”. Finally, Trump told reporters that he expected a deal in a day or two and prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon. Everything pointed to an imminent deal, but we started to see some weakness into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due to the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution. The bad news is that the ceasefire is expiring tomorrow unless we get another extension, which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines, and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution.An extension to the deadline should keep supporting the market on hopes of an eventual breakthrough but if the bombs start dropping again, it's going to be a bloodbath in the markets given the overstretched levels. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 has surged into new record highs last week and it’s now pulling back a bit amid the renewed US-Iran tensions. The previous all-time high around the 7,040 level might now act as support. If the price pulls back, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the price extends the fall below the support, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline next with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor counter-trendline acting as support for now. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 7,040 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution which is keeping the markets afloat. The bad news is that the ceasefire expires tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution. INR:The Indian rupee stabilised in the past couple of weeks as the risk-on sentiment amid the US-Iran deal optimism gave the currency a reprieve. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations as everything hinges on their outcome, although the renewed tensions are keeping the risk mood a bit on the defensive. In terms of macro, the RBI held interest rates steady at 5.25% and downgraded growth forecasts due to the US-Iran war at the last policy meeting. The central bank expects inflation to increase in the short-term and growth to slow down. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs, but for now the Rupee could remain supported and extend the relief rally in case the US-Iran war ends.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR extended the fall on US-Iran optimism last week but then rebounded late Friday on some hedging into the weekend. The target for the sellers remains the lower bound of the channel but if we get a pullback into the upper bound of the channel, we can expect the sellers to step in there again to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need a break above the upper bound of the channel to open the door for new highs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in to extend the rebound into the upper bound of the channel.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, while the buyers will look to extend the rally into the 94.00 resistance in case of a breakout.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz barely lasted a day. That before Iran's military decided to shut down passage of the waterway again as Tehran is dissatisfied with the continued US naval blockade. After that, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic that a deal could get done but not before threatening to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure if there wasn't one.Come today, we're seeing a barrage of headlines from Iran in claiming that they will not back down from their negotiating position. Adding that there remains significant "differences" on key issues such as nuclear and that "the gaps have not narrowed". Still, one can argue that markets are taking all the latest developments in stride for the most part.Sure, oil prices are higher having opened with a gap up today. However, Brent crude is sitting just 5% higher now near the $95 mark. Meanwhile, WTI crude (June contract) is seen up over 5% to around $87.20 currently. Both have not pushed gains all too much on the session, with upside momentum being kept on a tight leash.Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are only down by just 0.4% and well off the lows from the open today - which saw a drop of a little over 1%.It sure doesn't feel like we are seeing a big shift in risk sentiment, at least not one you can tell by the market moves. That as compared to the setback from the headlines since the weekend. In reading the news, it feels like we've just a hit a snag with progress being reset to before the ceasefire. Speaking of which, we're only just two days away from the ceasefire deadline as well.Yet, here we are seeing markets looking rather sanguine even if there is a bit of a risk retreat today. The market reaction seems to suggest that things are not that bad. However, could it be the case that traders and investors are keeping their faith in expecting positive news to eventually come? To be more specific, it looks like market players are feeling quite assured that Trump will eventually come out and deliver another round of good news.Two weeks ago, Trump gave markets a lift by announcing a ceasefire in hostilities. And when markets were feeling in the dumps last week, he again came to the rescue by touting "an amazing two days" ahead of what was supposed to a second round of talks. Eventually, that culminated in the supposed "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz. But as mentioned above, that barely lasted a day before everything from Friday fell apart.So, third time's the charm then? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size up the magnitude of the fallout from the conflict.That being said, they note that the final decision may be a close call and is still dependent on what becomes of US-Iran peace talks in the week ahead.One of the sources did say that the BOJ is not likely to act given how markets have already priced out chances of a rate hike for this month. For some context, traders are just pricing in ~15% odds of a rate hike as of today. However, those odds jump do jump back up quite a bit to ~57% by the time we get to the June meeting.The sources also say that even if the central bank were to hold off on rates hikes this time around, they might still want to signal that they are ready to act as soon as June in the wake of mounting inflation pressures.The outcome of the spring wage negotiations was already a positive factor but surging oil prices will just add to mounting price pressures for the Japanese economy. However, the mix of inflation is something that the BOJ will have to be mindful of. They have previously been rather adamant to not want to react too much to cost-push inflation, which is precisely what the economy will experience amid surging oil prices. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talksTrump told Munir he would consider his adviceA senior Pakistani security source has confirmed that Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir held a conversation with US President Trump regarding the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During the call, General Munir reportedly suggested that the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has become the single most significant hurdle to the success of the Islamabad-mediated peace talks. The source noted that the Army Chief conveyed a clear message that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a prerequisite for moving toward a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.Munir argued that the economic and military pressures resulting from the blockade have created a climate of mistrust that prevents teams from finalizing the proposed framework for regional stability. The General reportedly suggested that a calibrated easing of naval tensions would provide the necessary room to sustain the current momentum of the negotiations.President Trump’s response was described by the source as receptive but non-committal. The President told the Army Chief that he would consider his advice, acknowledging Pakistan's role as a primary bridge in the current conflict. This dialogue underscores the growing strategic reliance on the "Munir-Trump" back-channel, which has become a central pillar of the current administration's approach to Middle Eastern stability. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution which is keeping the markets afloat. The bad news is that the ceasefire expires tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target. Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike, but for now we haven’t got an official resolution.The BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady in April with the market now pricing in just a 17% probability of a hike. The central bank will want to wait for the end of the war and let things settle before considering a rate hike. If the war ends and economic data picks up, they might lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY eventually dropped into the 158.00 support and rebounded as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 level. The sellers will need the price to break below the support to open the door for a move into the major trendline around the 155.00 level. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline acting as resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 162.00 handle.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the buyers will either continue to step in around the support or wait for a break above the trendline to increase the bullish bets. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI report. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This is almost an exact reoccurrence to what we saw in December last year, with the same sort of tsunami warning being issued for the same three prefectures above. At the time, it was also a 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Aomori (northern Honshu). And 90,000 people were ordered to evacuate the affected areas in the last episode.NHK is already reporting that tsunami waves of up to four meters is already hitting the Miyako Harbour in the Iwate prefecture. So, the episode this time around is already much bigger than the previous one. Despite a similar tsunami advisory issued in December, the actual waves that struck were only around 0.7 meters in height.It is also being reported that there is no abnormality seen at the Tomari nuclear power plant after the quake. The plant is located to the west of Sapporo and north west of the Hokkaido prefecture. So, there is a bit of a buffer there at least.At the same time, Tohoku Electric is also reporting that there are no irregularities at the Onagawa nuclear power plant (Miyagi prefecture, light tsunami warning) and the Higashidori nuclear power plant (Aomori prefecture). So, that's some good news at least.For those affected by the quake and tsunami, be safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.