Trump: Iran talks 'could be happening over next two days' in PakistanIMF lowers 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% priorUS March PPI final demand 4.0% y/y vs +4.7% expectedLebanon ambassador: The preliminary meeting with Israel was goodBessent: Trump hasn't opted to raise 10% tariff to 15% "at this time"ECB's Lagarde: We are between the baseline and adverse scenariosIran weighs pausing its Hormuz shipping to avoid derailing talksECB's Makhlouf: Not yet seeing changes in consumer behaviour from higher inflationMarkets:WTI crude oil down $6.84 to $92.24US 10-year yields down 4.9 bps to 4.248%Gold up $101 to $4840S&P 500 up 1.2%NZD leads, USD lagsIt was another big day for the peace trade as oil tumbled once again. All indications continue to point towards a deal with Trump talking about a second meeting in Pakistan and remaining positive on the contours of a deal. There wasn't much news on Lebanon but the headlines were somewhat constructive and it's not even clear if that's a deal braker. Iran is reportedly not testing the US Hormuz blockade and that points to progress as well.The risk is that it could all fall apart with a volatile dealmaker like Trump but so far it remains on track and that's why US stocks are now above where they were pre-war. Oil still has a long ways to go but the market is indicating that even if it doesn't get all the way back the progress has been good enough for the broader economy.It was a fairly unified trade and the dollar was broadly weaker. In terms of data, PPI was soft and if you exclude the war impacts, there is a growing argument that we're headed back to some kind of pre-2020 inflation regime where it's stubbornly low, particularly as AI disrupts the labor market. I'd argue that if the US turns of the fiscal taps, then that is an even-more compelling argument.For now though, the data is secondary and all eyes remain on the Middle East. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.comExpectations I had seen centred on: Crude -1.3mln Distillate -2.5mlnGasoline -2.2mln This data point is from a privately-conducted survey by the American Petroleum Institute (API).It's a survey of oil storage facilities and companiesThe official report is due Wednesday morning US time.The two reports are quite different.The official government data comes from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Its based on data from the Department of Energy and other government agenciesWhereas information on total crude oil storage levels and variations from the previous week's levels are both provided by the API report, the EIA report also provides statistics on inputs and outputs from refineries, as well as other significant indicators of the status of the oil market, and storage levels for various grades of crude oil, such as light, medium, and heavy.the EIA report is held to be more accurate and comprehensive than the survey from the API-----On Tuesday crude prices came under pressure as improving sentiment around US–Iran talks weighed on the complex. The downside move was reinforced by reports that Iran may consider pausing shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid jeopardising negotiations, alongside indications from both sides that they are open to continuing discussions.On the diplomatic front, Trump told the New York Post that talks with Iran could take place within the next couple of days in Pakistan, while an Iranian embassy official in Islamabad suggested the next round may occur later this week or early next week.Separately, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said global supply could outpace demand by around 410k barrels per day in 2026, while stressing that the restoration of flows through Hormuz remains a critical factor for the market outlook.Against this backdrop, oil benchmarks trended lower throughout the session, ultimately settling near their intraday lows. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Over 100 empty oil tankers heading to US to load crude Surge includes 54 VLCCs (~2m barrels each), signalling strong export demand US positioning as global swing supplier amid Iran war energy shock Reinforces US role as net exporter with ~13mb/d production baseline Bullish for US crude flows, but mixed implications for global pricesThe United States is seeing a surge in inbound empty oil tankers as global buyers scramble for alternative supply amid disruptions linked to the Iran war, according to reporting via CBS citing the White House.More than 100 empty vessels are currently en route to US ports to load crude, including 54 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), each capable of transporting around 2 million barrels. The scale of the movement underscores the growing pull for US oil as supply chains adjust to instability in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.The White House framed the surge as evidence the US is acting as a “critical lifeline” to global energy markets during a period of acute disruption. Notably, the fleet includes a broad international mix, with at least 20 tankers flagged in Europe and another 20 in Asia, suggesting demand is being driven by multiple regions facing supply constraints.That other notable empty vessel, President Donald Trump, posted the message over the weekend, highlighting the scale of inbound tankers. A rare occasion where the 'truth' lived up to the bluster. For markets, the development reinforces the US role as a key swing supplier during geopolitical shocks. While increased US exports may help cap extreme upside in oil prices, the underlying driver, disrupted Middle Eastern supply, remains firmly supportive of elevated energy prices and volatility.The surge in tanker demand also points to tightening global freight markets, particularly in the VLCC segment, as traders reposition flows away from traditional Gulf supply routes toward US barrels.---For financial markets, the surge in empty tankers heading to the US reinforces the country’s role as a key swing supplier during the Iran war-driven energy shock. While the redirection of global demand toward US crude may help alleviate some supply tightness, it does not remove the underlying disruption tied to the Strait of Hormuz, meaning oil prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile. The increase in export flows is supportive for US energy producers and could lend marginal support to the dollar through improved trade dynamics. At the same time, stronger demand for long-haul shipments is likely to tighten tanker availability, particularly in the VLCC segment, pushing freight rates higher. For equities, the dynamic favours energy names while maintaining pressure on energy-importing regions and sectors sensitive to fuel costs, reinforcing a broader divergence across global markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Lagarde spoke earlier:ECB's Lagarde: We are between the baseline and adverse scenariosLagarde pushed back against growing market speculation of imminent rate hikes, stressing that policymakers have not yet formed a clear view on the path of interest rates as the economic fallout from the Iran war remains highly uncertain.Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Lagarde said the eurozone economy currently sits “between the baseline and adverse scenario” outlined in the ECB’s latest projections. That assessment is particularly important for markets: it suggests the central bank sees meaningful downside risks to growth from the energy shock, but not yet a worst-case inflation spiral that would force an aggressive policy response.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, a key concern for the eurozone given its heavy reliance on imported energy. This has reignited fears of another inflation wave, with some analysts and traders bringing forward expectations for a rate hike as soon as the next policy meeting.However, Lagarde’s comments indicate a more cautious stance. She emphasised that it is “too early to draw conclusions” and warned against overconfidence from policymakers or markets on the direction of rates. Crucially, she declined to validate any specific rate path, reinforcing the ECB’s data-dependent approach.For financial markets, the takeaway is a tempering of near-term tightening expectations. While energy-driven inflation risks are clearly rising, the ECB appears equally focused on the potential hit to growth and broader uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions.Lagarde also dismissed renewed speculation about an early departure from her role, stating she would remain in position despite “clouds on the horizon,” signalling continuity in leadership during a period of heightened economic and geopolitical volatility.Overall, the ECB is signalling patience—leaving markets highly sensitive to incoming energy prices, inflation prints, and geopolitical developments as the policy outlook remains finely balanced.----I can't imagine she'll be changing her message when she speaks at 2100 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

It was another big day for stock markets as the market continues to price in peace. We have to be over 90% priced to a peace deal at this point and dangerously close to a 'sell the fact' trade.S&P 500 +1.2%Nasdaq Comp +2.0%Russell 2000 +1.3%DJIA +0.7%Toronto TSX Comp +0.6%Travel and memory names led the way along with big time help from most of the Mag7. The laggards were oil companies. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

One of the big risks to a ceasefire in the Middle East is that Israel refuses to stop operations in Lebanon or that Iran makes a total ceasefire there a definite condition of any deal.My guess is that we wouldn't have gotten this far down the road if there weren't some positive indications.The US State Dept is also out with some headlines on the Israel-Lebanon talks. The US has described as “open, direct, high-level” and are the first bi-lateral talks since 1993.U.S. Department issues statement after U.S.-Israel-Lebanon trilateral meeting in WashingtonDiscussed steps to start direct negotiations between Israel and LebanonU.S. expressed support for further talksU.S. expressed hope talks would go beyond scope of 2024 agreementU.S. expressed hope talks would lead to peace agreementIsrael affirmed commitment to working Lebanon to disarm non-state 'terror' groups and their infrastructureIsrael expressed commitment to direct negotiations to resolve outstanding issues, achieve peaceLebanon called for ceasefire and measures to address humanitarian crisisParties agreed to start direct negotiations at mutually agreed time and placeThe people said to be involved in the talks:Nada Hamadeh: Lebanese Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter: Israeli Ambassador to the US Marco Rubio: US Secretary of State Michel Issa: US Ambassador to Lebanon, acting as a facilitator Michael Needham: State Department Counselor, also facilitatingThe inclusions of Rubio hints at something big but it's tough to imagine this can fit into the timeline that they're working on with Iran and the US. On the less-optimistic side, Israel is continuing strikes and operations in southern Lebanon.WTI crude oil last traded down $7.30 to $91.78 and the S&P 500 is up 1.0%. A WSJ report is also just out saying that Europe could be doing the de-mining in Hormuz.European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine- clearing and other military vessels. But the plan would only come after the war and may exclude one country in particular: the U.S.That plan might make it more palatable for Iran. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US stocks continue to make fresh daily highs and have erased the Iran war decline. It's an impressive turnaround given that just three days ago, JD Vance was walking away from negotiations in Pakistan.The market quickly realized that was more of a stunt than a sign of the way that things are going. The ceasefire is continuing and Trump has stopped with the constant threats and is instead highlighting only nuclear as a problem and the market thinks the differences will be bridged and the oil will flow again.The S&P 500 is up 1.1% today after trading near flat at the open. The biggest gainers are the airline stocks, led by a 7.9% rise in American Airlines. It's a double boost for that sector today as oil prices are falling and there is a report that United is thinking about a merger with American, and that US regulators are open to consolidation in the airline space.Other travel names are also running with Expedia up 4.8% and Norwegian Cruise Lines up 4.7%Another big winner today is Amazon, up 4.9%. Look at the snap comeback on the chart. It started April 9 on a report that it could sell its chips to other companies but the real tell was in the technicals as it broke above the March high and rose into the gap. This is impressive stuff.Another space that's doing well today is memory chips. This has been a real battleground lately with some brutal volatility. Micron Technologies is up 6.7% today and is completing a round trip that saw it crushed down to $311 in March from a high of $471. The market is unsure how sustainable memory demand will be as new AI models tweak their requirements. Micron trades at around 10x earnings but the market isn't sure the earnings will last as memory companies have a long history of building capacity and crushing margins.Other gainers today include financials after good results from Citigroup. That company is up 3.4% and above pre-war levels. The Mag 7 names are generally strong with Google up 3.6%, META up 4.8% and Tesla up 3.6%.Much of the price action looks like investors cycling back into their favorite names, or leveraging back up. Among the weaker names are oil companies with Chevron down 3.3% and back to pre-war levels. That's another sign that the market doesn't think that high oil prices will last. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 has completely retraced the Iran war move; the euro is back to pre-war levels; but gold isn't.There may be an opportunity there. Gold has come to life during US trading today and is up 2% to $4831. That's still $440 below pre-war levels, or about 9%. Silver is even stronger today, rising 5%.Both -- I think -- are examples of liquidity and leverage returning to markets. Investors feel comfortable leveraging up again and gold is a destination as it remains in a major bull market.Moreover, the end of the war can add to gold's fundamentals. At the simplest scale, it lowers tail risks for emerging markets. Turkey was forced to sell large amounts of gold during the war as it tried to defend the currency and others were equally vulnerable. In the aftermath of the war, there's an incentive for all the big commodity-importing countries to further raise gold reserves now that they've seen the impact of a Hormuz disruption. They've also seen (again) how the US is no longer playing by the old rules, which is a rise to USD holdings.The entire gold bull market basically started when the US weaponized the dollar by confiscating Russia's reserves and the events in the Middle East underscore that's more likely than it ever was. Trump is also proudly continuing to talk about his next 'conquest', often citing Greenland and Cuba. Notably, gold hit records earlier this year on the Greenland talk.Add in declining inflation and a politically-appointed Fed chair with a clear mandate to cut rates, and the case for gold has rarely been stronger.What can help from here is a technical break. Gold is now flirting with the April high of $4853 and if that breaks, there's not much standing in the way of $5000 and beyond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's not impossible to see the Fed and ECB take different paths in the short termWe are absolutely focused on delivering on inflation targetIf shocks take inflation off target but not persistently, we should be measured in our responseHow measured of a response is the question? Does that mean not moving rates at all or less than they would otherwise? Lagarde didn't offer much today but I can see a scenario where the ECB walks back rate hikes or pushes back on the 39 bps that's priced in through July.Of course, much of that is going to depend on where oil prices go in the next two months. The interesting scenario to me is if oil settles around $80 vs $60 pre-war. That's obviously going to push inflation above target but it's not some kind of persistent shock and it won't redline inflation at some intolerable level.Now here's the bad news: The ECB will screw it up. They always screw it up. Trichet was hiking into the oil shock in 2007 as the US economy was falling apart and that led to at least part of the malaise that led to the next decade of stagnation in Europe. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nothing is authentic on the internet and you're likely a target of stock-market boosting campaigns.Wired is out with an interesting article about a Brooklyn rock band called Geese that had a monster 2025. Their album Getting Killed landed on every year-end list that mattered. They booked Saturday Night Live. They sold out a fall tour. The Guardian called them "the new saviors of rock 'n' roll."Then the curtain got pulled back.A digital marketing firm called Chaotic Good Projects confirmed to WIRED today that it ran campaigns for the band — creating networks of TikTok accounts, seeding clips into recommendation algorithms, and manufacturing the appearance of organic grassroots buzz. The firm's cofounder told Billboard they "know how to go viral" and have "thousands of pages" at their disposal. He calls the technique "trend simulation."Read that term again: trend simulation.Now ask yourself a very simple question: if this works for music, why wouldn't it work for stocks?The playbook is straightforward. You build a constellation of accounts across social platforms. You seed content — clips, commentary, reactions — that looks organic. You manufacture engagement that triggers the recommendation algorithm, which surfaces the content to real users, who then amplify it further. The fake spark lights a real fire.Chaotic Good was doing this on TikTok and YouTube. But the same architecture maps perfectly onto financial social media — StockTwits, Reddit's r/wallstreetbets, FinTwit, YouTube finance channels, TikTok finance creators. And in markets, engagement is price action. Now that might not always be positive (though it generally is) but at least it's volume.You'd Be Naive to Think This Isn't Already HappeningSocial media sentiment now feeds directly into algorithmic trading models. Retail investor flows are influenced by what trends on Reddit and TikTok. A coordinated campaign that makes a stock look like it has organic momentum can generate actual momentum — at least for a while.Take a name like Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock has been a retail darling, trading at valuations that have made traditional analysts choke on their spreadsheets. The bull case rests on genuine tailwinds — government AI contracts, commercial expansion, the broader AI narrative. But scroll through the social media discourse around PLTR and you'll notice something familiar: an almost suspiciously uniform enthusiasm, an ecosystem of accounts that seem to exist primarily to amplify one thesis, and a volume of engagement that feels engineered.I'm not saying Palantir is running trend simulation campaigns. I have no evidence of that. But I am saying that if you wanted to run one on a stock with a devoted retail following and a momentum-driven price structure, PLTR would be the template and it took off around the same time as these techniques started to become more widespread. The characteristics that make a stock susceptible to this are well understood: high retail ownership, strong narrative appeal, options-heavy trading, and a community that wants to believe.Trailing P/E 217x (111x forward)EV/EBITDA 206xPrice-to-sales 80xThe same profile fits a dozen other names on any given day.As a trader, there are two ways to think about this. One is to find one of these psyops that's started and get in early and hold on for dear life. With the advent of OpenClaw and other AI tools, I imagine that the campaigns that were once spun up by these firms and IR departments will be possible via a guy and a laptop.Otherwise, steer clear of these battleground stocks. I think it's going to be tougher to discern what's authentic and what's real enthusiasm. Ultiamtely, you can't fake earnings (or not for long). If your thesis on a stock is primarily informed by social media sentiment, you don't have a thesis. One of Chaotic Good's founding partners summed up the firm's philosophy in an interview with Billboard: "Everything on the internet is fake."It's a glib line, but it contains a real warning for market participants. The infrastructure for manufacturing consensus is cheap, scalable, and increasingly sophisticated. The platforms that surface content to you are optimized for engagement, not accuracy. And the line between organic enthusiasm and paid amplification is, by design, invisible.In the music industry, the worst-case outcome of trend simulation is that you buy a concert ticket for a band you end up not liking. In financial markets, the stakes are meaningfully different.Earnings are real. Revenue is real. Cash flow is real. Everything else is a story — and now we know, with uncomfortable specificity, how easy those stories are to manufacture.Anyway, here's Geese, decide for yourself: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, there was an Atlantic report that said talks were coming on Thursday, citing sources from Tehran. Now Trump says they're more 'inclined' to go to Pakistan for Iran talks.There was a quick uptick in stocks on this and the S&P 500 is now at the highs of the day, up 0.8%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market today painted a green picture for the Technology sector, with notable performances from major tech giants driving market sentiment up. Microsoft (MSFT) grew by an impressive 2.11%, indicating continued investor confidence. In the semiconductor space, Nvidia (NVDA) leaping 1.88% and Micron (MU) soaring 3.06% highlights a bullish stance among investors, contrasting previous downtrends.The Consumer Cyclical sector also enjoyed gains, led by Amazon (AMZN) which rose by 2.50%, and Tesla (TSLA), adding 2.96%. These gains suggest robust consumer interest and demand, buoyed perhaps by recent economic signals or corporate announcements.Market Mood and TrendsTodays trading session reflects a positive market sentiment, driven largely by enthusiasm in the tech sector. The overall markets vibrant mood is also visible through gains in Communication Services, where Google (GOOGL) added 1.98% and Meta surged 3.04%, underscoring strong investor confidence in digital media and communication spaces.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should keep a keen eye on the Technology sector for potential opportunities, especially in semiconductors, which have shown resilience. Consider diversifying portfolios to include Consumer Cyclical stocks like Amazon and Tesla which are showing strength amid current market conditions. Monitoring these sectors' performance can provide insights into potential upward trends. ?The bearish movements in the Financial sector, with JP Morgan (JPM) dipping 1.04% and Wells Fargo (WFC) sliding 6.79%, caution investors to stay alert to potential downside risks and economic developments affecting financials. ?Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for ongoing market news and strategic insights. Leverage real-time data to navigate, adapt, and make informed decisions in these dynamic market conditions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

When US tariffs were struck down by a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, the President announced a 10% global tariff under a different authority immediately. This was done under Section 122, which has a 150-day limit and a cap of 15%. Initially the rate of 10% rather than 15% was framed as an administrative delay but now Bessent is saying that Trump has 'chosen' not to raise it. That's good news for prices and may reflect that Trump is worried about inflation or is holding it back for leverage later.Notably, the Treasury is doing broad Section 301 investigations regarding unfair trade practices and forced labor. These investigation are largely window dressing and are scheduled to end at the time that the 150-day limit expires. It will lead to fresh tariffs that are more durable.But note that both authorities are likely to be challenged and likely to end up back at the Supreme Court, particularly if the Section 301 investigations aren't seen as proper. The other kink is the midterm elections, which could throw up other road blocks.Other headlines from Bessent:We want to get Warsh confirmed as soon as possible (a report today said the first hearing will be April 21)I'm confident that core inflation will go downWe want to get housing bill passedChina has been an unreliable partner during the war, they are hoarding oilThe mood in markets continues to improve and this tidbit from Bessent is more good news. The S&P 500 is up 44 points, or 0.65%, to 6930. WTI crude oil continues to fall and is now lower on the week, down $5.50 to $93.58 per barrel.The US dollar is broadly weaker and has largely given back its gains from the war, while gold is up $61 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The ECB needs to take a medium-term viewNeed to keep eyes on the medium term while checking data dailyWe have to be completely agileWe have to be data dependentThe captain won't leave the ship with clouds on the horizon This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro is back to where it was when the Iran war began.That's a good sign for peace but also for resilience. The energy shock is a big hit for Europe but the market is pricing in a transitory effect. Notably, the IMF is out with its latest growth forecasts and sees GDP this year at 1.1% compared to 1.3% in January.That's not impressive growth but there could be upside if Hormuz is resolved relatively quickly and oil infrastructure isn't overly damaged. Note that before the war, European stock markets were also rising rapidly. If that resumes, we could see some positive knock ons to both the currency and the economy as well.For the currency, the big thing to watch is the ECB. The market is pricing in a 34% chance of a hike on April 30 and that rises to 87% for the June 11 meeting. By July, there are 39 bps of hikes priced in.Officials have been quick to fight back against rising inflation expectations due to the energy price shock but I'd imagine they will be cautious at this point. There are still more than two weeks until the next decision and much can change in the interim, so I wouldn't expect any strong signals. Even by April 30, it's unlikely to be clear how the energy system will sort itself out.Technically, there is some short term work to do with some minor highs up to 1.1834 blocking the way. We may consolidate before that and wait for the 'all clear' on Iran but if/when it breaks, there is a solid case to be made for a return to 1.2000. I think the contours of the peace matter here and if Iran is left with a toll on Hormuz, it essentially breaks the US monopoly of the seas and that's inevitably bad for the US dollar. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January on Middle East conflictUnited States 2026 growth trimmed to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior; 2027 ticks up to 2.1% vs 2.0%Euro area forecast slashed to 1.1% vs 1.3% in January as energy headwinds deepenIndia growth upgraded to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior on strong momentum and lower US tariffsIMF severe scenario sees global growth at just 2.0%, a 'close call' for recession with oil at $110Iran GDP now seen contracting 6.1% in 2026, a 7.2-point swing from January forecastChina 2026 growth trimmed to 4.4% vs 4.5% in January; 2027 held at 4.0%Turkey 2026 forecast cut sharply to 3.4% vs 4.2% prior on weaker momentum, higher energy pricesEmerging market inflation forecast raised to 5.5% vs 4.8% in January, 0.7 percentage points higherJapan 2026 growth held at 0.7% but IMF says BOJ likely to hike at steeper clip than expectedThe headline number is a cut to 3.1% global growth for 2026 from 3.3% in January. Chief economist Gourinchas made it clear that without the Iran conflict, the IMF was actually looking at an upgrade to 3.4%.The 3.1% reference case already bakes in higher oil and a short-lived disruption, but the adverse and severe scenarios are where it gets uncomfortable. At $100 oil under the adverse case, they're forecasting 2.5% global growth. Take it to $110 and throw in financial market dislocations under the severe case and that falls to 2.0% — what Gourinchas openly called a "close call" for global recession. On the country level, the moves are telling. The U.S. gets a minor haircut to 2.3% from 2.4% — not dramatic, and 2027 actually ticked up — which reflects an economy that's still running on fiscal momentum and a labor market that hasn't cracked. Europe takes a bigger hit, down to 1.1% from 1.3%, and the structural headwinds there are well known. China's trim to 4.4% from 4.5% is modest, but the downside risk is all about what happens if oil goes higher and export demand cools further.India is the standout. Growth upgraded to 6.5% with lower U.S. tariff rates cited as a tailwind.Iran's GDP is now expected to contract 6.1% in 2026, a massive 7.2-point swing from the January view. That's the most dramatic single-country revision in the report and it speaks to both the direct conflict impact and the sanctions tightening.For traders, the inflation call matters just as much as the growth numbers. Global inflation at 4.4% under the reference case is a meaningful move higher from 3.8% in January, and EM consumer prices at 5.5% suggest rate cuts in those economies are going to be delayed or reversed. The BOJ comment about a steeper rate path is notable — if Japan is tightening into global uncertainty, that has implications for the yen carry trade and risk appetite more broadly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 3.4% y/yPPI M/M +0.5% vs +1.1% expectedPrior +0.7% (revised to +0.5%)Core PPICore PPI Y/Y +3.8% vs +4.2% expectedPrior +3.9% (revised to 3.8%)Core PPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.5% expectedPrior Core PPI MoM +0.5%(revised to +0.3%)PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.6% vs 3.5% last monthPPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM +0.2% vs +0.5% last month The March PPI came in well below consensus on both measures — 4.0% year-over-year versus the expected 4.7%, and 0.5% month-over-month versus the expected 1.1%. Given that the forecast was built around an anticipated energy surge, the interesting question is where the miss came from, because energy actually did spike dramatically. Final demand energy rose 8.5% month-over-month, driven by gasoline (+15.7%), diesel (+42.0%), jet fuel (+30.7%), and home heating oil (+39.4%). These are big numbers, but if the consensus was modeling an even larger pass-through from crude, the miss partly reflects crude oil's 12-month gain of 12.3% being more moderate than refined product moves — and natural gas actually collapsed 51.7% on the month at the unprocessed level, which was a massive drag on the intermediate demand side. So the energy story was a tale of two markets: refined products surged, but natural gas cratered, partially offsetting the headline impact.Note that US tariffs were dropped just ahead of March. The Supreme Court struck down the sweeping IEEPA tariffs on February 20 in a 6-3 decision. which means the March PPI data reflects an economy where the major tariff regime had just been invalidated. Trump immediately replaced them with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, but that's dramatically lower than the IEEPA tariffs had been.Services were a big surprise. Final demand services came in at 0.0% month-over-month, down from +0.3% in February. Services carry about 68% of the final demand weight, so this was the single biggest source of the miss. A few dynamics drove it. Trade margins declined 0.3%, with food and alcohol wholesaling margins dropping 6.0% and fuels and lubricants retailing falling 10.2%. The retailing margins decline is notable because it suggests retailers absorbed some of the energy cost increase rather than passing it through — exactly the opposite of what a simple cost-push model would predict. Meanwhile, the "other services" category (services less trade, transportation, and warehousing) rose just 0.1%, with categories like securities brokerage, deposit services, and residential property brokerage commissions all falling.Transportation and warehousing services gained 1.3%, boosted by airline passenger fares (+2.8%) and truck freight (+1.0%), but at only about 5% of the final demand weight, this couldn't offset the drag from trade margins and flat core services. Notably, real-time airfares are up 30-40% for future dates as energy is passed through, so this will come.The best news in the report was food as final demand foods fell 0.3%, with fresh and dry vegetables dropping 10.7% and crude consumer foods plunging 10.0%. This worked against the headline number as well.The core measure tells the real story. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services — the "super core" PPI — rose just 0.2%, way down from 0.5% in both January and February. This suggests that underlying producer-level inflation momentum actually decelerated in March.In short, the consensus appears to have overweighted the crude oil spike and underestimated three offsetting forces: the natural gas collapse, the removal of tariffs, and a broader deceleration in core services inflation. The energy pass-through was real but narrower than expected, and the rest of the economy's pricing power actually softened. The bad news is that much of the energy price rise is still in the pipeline and Hormuz still isn't open. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg reports:Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talksThey cited a person familiar with Iran's deliberations.At this point, I don't think we need a headline to tell us the state of play. The S&P 500 is back to pre-war levels despite the loss of 400 million barrels of oil and a price shock.A peace deal is probably 85% priced in and that continues to go up with S&P 500 futures up 19 points today.I think there is still upside because the market is still digesting Anthropic's Mythos model and a potential step-change in AI capability. Now these models are often over-hyped but at least this new one shows that there's still enthusiasm and that kind of sentiment will drive more money into the space.That said, software stocks rebounded yesterday in a big way. The IGV software ETF rose 5.4% in what might have been a short squeeze but it's a return to the big question of whether AI will eat software.WTI crude oil is down $2.69 to $96.43 and is essentially back to Friday's closing level.Today's economic data includes US PPI, the FOMC Minutes and comments from Daly and Waller.Just now, the ADP weekly employment report was released and rose to 39,250. That's the highest four-week average since the report was introduced in September. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US March NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 97.9 expectedA tricky time for the oil market as the "smart money" has moved onInvestors surveyed in early April were most bearish in 10 months - BofAECB's Rehn: Interest rate decisions are not locked in beforehandThree tankers were said to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on first day of US blockadeUSDJPY pulls back as the US dollar weakens on renewed US-Iran optimism. What's next?US and Iran negotiation teams reportedly set to return to Islamabad for talks this weekSpain March final CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 14 April 10am New York cutOil prices fall back on renewed hope of a US-Iran dealIt's been a pretty boring session in terms of news and data releases. The only data we got were the final Spanish CPI and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The Spanish CPI was revised higher, while the US NFIB saw a notable drop in sentiment due to the US-Iran war. The market reaction was rather muted to both releases as traders remain focused on US-Iran negotiations given that the outcome will shape future growth and inflation expectations.On the news front, we just got further reports confirming a second round of US-Iran talks later this week. It's not yet clear when, but most reports are looking for Thursday onwards. This optimism is keeping the markets in risk-on mode as the US dollar stays on the backfoot, stocks continue to get bid, oil prices remain under pressure and precious metals extend the gains on easing financial conditions.In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US PPI. The weekly ADP data hasn't been a market-moving release, but it's been pointing to a resilient and even improving labour market.The US PPI is unlikely to be a market-moving report, much like the US CPI last Friday, because everyone knows it's going to be hot due to the US-Iran war. That's old news. What matters now is what happens with the US-Iran negotiations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 98.8Full report hereThe NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”This is not a market-moving report and a drop in optimism in March was widely expected for obvious reasons (US-Iran war). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.