Prior was 49.8Manufacturing 54.0 vs 52.5 expected - -highest since May 2022Prior manufacturing 52.4Composite 52.0 vs 50.5 expectedComposite prior was 51.4Employment basically flat for a second monthInput cost inflation at an 11-month highOutput prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022This is a two-month high in services and a nice surprise but the real headline number is on manufacturing, which is the best in almost four years. The US manufacturing sector has largely been in something of a recession for all of that time and this is a good signal that it's turning the corner, despite higher energy prices. However there is some fine print: a big chunk of that new orders surge is companies panic-buying ahead of war-related shortages and price hikes. Unfortunately, the services side — which is what actually drives the US economy — barely budged off the floor and new business growth was the slowest in two years. The more important story is on prices. Output prices jumped the most since mid-2022 and input costs are running at an 11-month high, with supply chains snarling up in a way we haven't seen since the post-pandemic mess. Survey chief economist Chirs Williamson sums up the Fed's problem nicely:"Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma. However, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth."The survey says it's consistent with "growth in excess of 1%" which isn't exactly blockbuster but it's still growth but is also coming with spiking prices. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump on Truth Social:Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is! They just don’t know! The infighting is between the “Hardliners,” who have been losing BADLY on the battlefield, and the “Moderates,” who are not very moderate at all (but gaining respect!), is CRAZY! We have total control over the Strait of Hormuz. No ship can enter or leave without the approval of the United States Navy. It is “Sealed up Tight,” until such time as Iran is able to make a DEAL!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPIt seems like the US and everyone else is waiting for some kind of response from Iran, or the US didn't like the response from Iran the first time.One thing that has been consistent is that Iran says the US blockade of Hormuz is a violation of the ceasefire and that they won't negotiate until it's lifted. Obviously, Trump doesn't believe that's the case and thinks he's gaining leverage by cutting off funds to Iran.There is also an update from US interior minister Burgum (though it's not really his file) who said that Trump's order on boats laying mines is not an escalation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump posts on Truth Social:I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPI'm not sure where that falls under the ceasefire but it's the kind of thing you might do if you're thinking about naval escorts rather than peace. Then again, it's also the kind of thing you might want to accelerate if you were thinking about peace.Stock futures moved lower on the post. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 208K (revised to 207K)4 week moving average of initial jobless claim 210.75K vs 210.0K last weekContinuing claims 1,821M vs 1.820M expectedPrior week 1.809M (revised from 1.818M)The data continues to show steady - no hire/no fire? - employment trends.Looking at the continuing claims, the advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 11 came in at 1,821,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 9,000 from 1,818,000 to 1,809,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,812,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,250 from 1,813,250 to 1,811,000.On the state side, the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 11 were in New York (+8,145), Connecticut (+1,747), Georgia (+1,288), Virginia (+1,227), and Texas (+1,074), while the largest decreases were in Oregon (-3,773), Illinois (-2,112), Maryland (-910), New Jersey (-864), and Ohio (-492).Taking a look at the EURUSD, it fell back below the 100 day MA earlier today, but has not been able to crack below the 38.2% of the move up from the March low with conviction nor the 200 day MA at 1.16739 up to 1.1681. A move below those levels is needed to increase the bearish bias. The 100 day MA remains a close resistance level as the battle of the 100/200 day MA rages. PS you can add a broken trend line in the mix between the 100 and 200 day MA levels. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +0.4% m/mPPI +7.8% y/y vs 5.4% priorRaw materials price index +12.0% m/m vs +0.6% priorRaw materials price index +23.6% y/y vs +8.6% priorThat's not great on the PPI headline but downright scary on the raw materials price index. It's not a big surprise given gasoline prices but that's a problem for inflation.Separately, StatsCan reported that March manufacturing sales most likely rose 3.5%.For background, Canada's two key producer price gauges — the Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) and the Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) — are published monthly by Statistics Canada, typically around the 20th of the following month. The IPPI measures prices received by Canadian manufacturers for goods sold at the factory gate, excluding indirect taxes, tariffs, and downstream transportation or distribution costs. The RMPI, by contrast, captures prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw material inputs, including freight, net taxes, and duties — making it a useful leading indicator for pipeline cost pressures. Both are reported on a January 2020 = 100 base and feed into the calculation of real GDP by industry in the national accounts. While the IPPI does not measure the direct impact of tariffs, cross-border duties can influence the series indirectly through input costs and supply-demand dynamics — a factor that has drawn extra attention amid recent Canada-U.S. trade frictions.January 2026 delivered a sharp upside surprise: the IPPI jumped 2.7% month-over-month and the RMPI surged 7.7%, led by an 18.2% leap in primary non-ferrous metals as gold, silver, and platinum-group prices extended their run.February's release, published March 20, showed a clear cooling in the monthly pace while year-over-year pressure stayed elevated. The IPPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and was up 5.4% from a year earlier — its 17th consecutive year-over-year gain. The RMPI climbed 0.6% on the month and 8.6% year-over-year. Energy and petroleum products led the monthly gain (+7.8%), with refined products up 8.2% as crude prices climbed from mid-February on rising Iran-U.S. tensions. Primary non-ferrous metals gave back some ground (-3.7%) after January's spike, while meat, fish, and dairy prices fell 5.9%, the sharpest drop since July 2020, driven by tumbling poultry and pork prices. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Pakistan has proposed opening the Strait in exchange for partial lifting of sanctions on IranTrump cited Iran's "fractured" leadership as the reason for extending the ceasefire but yesterday the White House said they knew they were negotiating with the right people. Now there's this report and it adds up: Iran has insisted on peace in Lebanon and no blockades as a precondition for talks.US stock futures have pared the decline after a China Central Television report citing an Iranian diplomatic sourse said that preparations for talks between Iran and the USA may see a breakthrough "tonight or tomorrow." This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:The fragile optimism in markets hangs in the balanceGold remains under pressure amid US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalystsThe single chart for bitcoin long term investors shows bulls are fineJapan finance minister Katayama delivers another intervention warningFrance April flash services PMI 46.5 vs 48.5 expectedGermany April flash manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 51.4 expectedEurozone April flash services PMI 47.4 vs 49.8 expectedUK March flash services PMI 52.0 vs 50.0 expectedUK industry sees business situation at the most pessimistic since the Covid pandemicMarkets:Brent crude up 1.1% to $103.05, WTI crude up 1.2% to $94.13USD leads, NZD lags on the dayEquities lower in Europe, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%US 10-year yields up 2.7 bps to 4.323%Gold down 0.8% to $4,699, Silver down 4.0% to $74.60Bitcoin down 1.2% to $77,533It was another tense session in Europe, with markets staying gripped by the US-Iran conflict. There weren't any fresh developments as the next round of talks remain in limbo. The stalemate comes as Iran continues to grandstand in wanting the US to break its naval blockade before heading to the negotiating table.In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure and that is keeping the broader market mood on edge with the fragile optimism looking rather shaky at the moment.Oil prices ramped higher again on the day with Brent crude up 1.1% to $103.05 and WTI crude up 1.2% to $94.13.Even though stocks defied the worries yesterday, we are starting to see some nerves show today. That comes after a fake news scare in early Asia trading about Iran missiles, but that was enough to expose the fragile and frail optimism that the risk rally has been building on in the past week.European indices are down across the board today with S&P 500 futures also seen down 0.5% currently. That signals a more cautious mood ahead of US trading later with Tesla earnings in focus.In other markets, the dollar is sitting slightly higher and keeping gains from yesterday. EUR/USD is down 0.2% to 1.1680 and USD/JPY up 0.1% to 159.70 levels with the latter prompting verbal intervention from Tokyo again. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is down 0.3% to 0.7138 as the risk mood stays slightly on the defensive on the session.Elsewhere, precious metals are also being hit with some selling as gold is down 0.8% to $4,699 and silver down 4.0% to $74.60 on the day.It's still all on US-Iran headlines until we get to the weekend from here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to put forward a proposal to end the war but didn’t lift the blockade. There's no deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new situation until the bombs start dropping again or they finally reach a deal. For now, the short-term bias is neutral to bearish as we head into the weekend without clear signs of improved relations and the global rate hike expectations keep capping the upside. The downside should remain limited amid positive expectations due to the indefinite ceasefire. Looking ahead, a resolution should trigger a rally towards the 96.00 level, while a return to fighting will likely send prices into new lows.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver fell below the key 78.00 level and opened the door for new lows. The sellers piled in on the break lower targeting the major upward trendline around the 67.00 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a rally into the 96.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the drop into the next trendline around the 55.00 level.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline that was defining the bullish momentum. The first natural target for the sellers should be the swing level at 72.55. That’s where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the 78.00 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 68.00 handle next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current bearish momentum on this timeframe. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the next downward trendline around the 77.00 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs, but the market focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have a "free hand" in conducting interventionsOur deputies in US, Japan are in close contact on forex mattersAll we can say is that past interventions have made an impactThe warning here isn't anything new and it comes as we see USD/JPY inch closer towards the 160 mark once again this week. The currency pair has been threatening a push higher despite some dollar weakness in early April. That as the yen itself is struggling to get off the floor amid the damage done to the Japanese economy from surging energy prices.As for her comment on past interventions having an impact, she's not wrong. However, it must be pointed out that such a remark also doesn't tell the full story.As seen with previous intervention attempts, the impact they have on the yen currency is immediate but they tend to be temporary. In the last instance during July 2024, the intervention from Tokyo saw USD/JPY fall from 159 to 140 in about three months. However, we saw a near complete erasure of that drop by the time we got to early January 2025. So, keep that in mind.And in this current backdrop, I can imagine any actual intervention having a more limited impact. Mind you, the Takaichi trade is still something that is running in the background among all the other negative factors pining down the yen currency. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The manufacturing PMI data for April earlier reflected a good uptick in overall business activity. However, it belies the underlying situation as the "better" conditions were largely driven by firms bringing forward orders. The frontloading is mostly due to wanting to obuild safety stocks in anticipation of rising prices and supply constraints.The latest CBI data is more telling about business sentiment and things aren't looking that great. The index for output volume expectations for the next three months sees a marked decline to -20, down from -3 in the previous report.Meanwhile, optimism about the business situation and export prospects fell at the quickest pace since the onset of the Covid pandemic.Adding to that, output price expectations jumped up to +32 in April as compared to +12 in March. The surge higher represents the biggest one-month jump since CBI records began in 1975. Ouch. And one can reasonably expect this to eventually be passed down the line to consumers via prices charged.The quarterly survey also reveals that firms' intentions for spending on buildings, plant & machinery, training are at the weakest since April 2020 as well. And that unit costs are expected to climb at the fastest pace in over three years in the coming quarter.All in all, it points to likely struggles in the UK industry as higher price pressures start to bite and compound towards demand conditions at some point. The BOE will be keen to avoid stagflation talk for the most part but if things stay this way and the Middle East war drags on, you can bet that there will be growing murmurs about this issue in the months to come. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Market expectations for BoE interest rate hikes have increased following the release of the latest UK flash PMIs. The survey showed an acceleration in economic activity in April alongside a record-breaking surge in business costs. The agency noted though that "the improved rate of expansion is in part a reflection of a short-term boost from a rush to secure purchases ahead of feared price rises and supply shortages linked to the war".The bad news is that businesses across both the manufacturing and services sectors reported the steepest rise in average cost burdens in more than three years, with some measures of input price inflation reaching their highest levels since the survey began nearly three decades ago. The agency noted that "prices are rising not just because of surging energy costs, but also due to increases in charges levied for a wide variety of goods and services, with price hikes often stoked by supply concerns". Businesses cited also strong wage pressures.The surge in costs, driven primarily by energy price shocks and mounting wage pressures, suggests that inflationary pressures could become more entrenched forcing the BoE to retighten policy to avoid erasing the progress achieved since 2022. The market is now pricing 60 bps of tightening by year-end compared to 35 bps last week, and there's a 70% chance of a rate hike in June.While raising rates risks dampening the economic recovery, the prospect of inflation rebounding well above 3% may leave the MPC with little choice but to retighten policy after 5 years of missing the target. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The PMI data from the euro area today shows a significant contrast. While the industry sector held up in April, albeit with a caveat, the services sector struggled due to softer demand conditions amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict. Higher energy prices is starting to bite at both the French and German economies and that is not a good early sign.The caveat for the manufacturing sector performance owes to a surge in new orders on the month. And that is heavily linked to customers seeking to secure purchases amid concerns over price rises and supply shortages. In essence, it is a case of demand frontloading as supply chains are set to become tighter in the near future. And the situation is not helped amid the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.Looking over to the inflation side of things, we're starting to see price pressures ramp up across the region. In particular, input price inflation is surging upwards to its highest in three years. It largely stems from the manufacturing side of things, with the frontloading above at least helping to distract from the growing pain in this area.As for the services sector, the shoot up is less profound but will present a bigger problem down the road. For now though, it seems that the price passthrough is not yet going to the end consumer. But the key question is, how long can businesses absorb this cost? And with already flagging demand conditions, the outlook isn't pretty.As seen above, input prices have jumped significantly in the manufacturing sector especially but is also climbing strongly in the services sector. On the latter, at least prices charged have not gone up all too much with France especially keeping things in check. HCOB notes that in the case of Europe's second largest economy that:"The passthrough to overall prices charged across the private sector was contained, although inflationary pressures did pick up in April. Services companies posted only a marginal rise in charges, whereas output price inflation across manufacturing jumped to a 38-month high. The limited increase in services was the key reason keeping overall selling price pressures contained."However, it wasn't really the case in Germany:"Businesses were more aggressive with their price setting in April as they looked to pass on some of the burden of higher costs to customers. The rates of inflation in services and manufacturing output charges were the highest for 35 and 39 months, respectively."In any case, the trend is rather clear. And as things keep this way, it creates a big problem for the ECB.While inflation pressures are being driven higher, the economic outlook is deteriorating. That creates a bad mix in the economy, with fears of stagflation pressures being more embedded in the region.Adding to the struggling economic outlook is that we are likely to even see more widespread supply shortages down the road.HCOB already noted that supplier lead times have lengthened to the largest extent since July 2022 in the manufacturing sector.The German industry is the one that will be under heavy scrutiny here and firms are already reporting an eighth successive monthly increase in average lead times on purchases in April. And that is very much tied to bottlenecks, capacity constraints, raw material shortages, and disruption to transportation due to the Middle East conflict.It's early days but the longer this relative uncertainty drags on, the more painful it will be for the euro area economy. And in turn, the bigger the headache will be for the ECB as they have to manage balancing out a weakening economy alongside surging price pressures. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold has come under renewed pressure on Tuesday after the markets got a bit scared following Iran’s refusal to participate in the Islamabad talks due to the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the losses were then pared after Trump extended the ceasefire to allow more time for Iran to put forward a proposal to end the war but didn’t lift the blockade. There's no deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new situation until the bombs start dropping again or they finally reach a deal. For now, the short-term bias is neutral to bearish as we head into the weekend without clear signs of improved relations. Nonetheless, the downside should remain limited amid positive expectations and a resolution should trigger a rally towards the 5,000 level. On the other hand, if the war resumes, gold prices are likely to quickly fall back into the 4,000 level. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold is just consolidating awaiting new catalysts to push it into either direction. Right now, we are trading around the same levels we’ve been at the start of the month. The natural target for the buyers should be the downward trendline around the 5,000 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the major upward trendline around the 4,100 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 5,400 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke below the upward trendline and opened the door for a bigger pullback into the 4,550 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a rally into the major downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into new lows.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the current pullback. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs, but the market focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.5Manufacturing PMI 53.6 vs 50.3 expectedPrior 51.0Composite PMI 52.0 vs 49.9 expectedPrior 50.3S&P Global notes that its gauge of input prices in this month showed the biggest monthly increase since records began 28 years ago. This will certainly keep the BoE in a neutral to hawkish stance as cutting rates now would erase all the inflation progress since 2022.The agency also notes "prices are rising not just because of surging energy costs, but also due to increases in charges levied for a wide variety of goods and services, with price hikes often stoked by supply concerns".While there's a welcome resilience in economic activity, analysts note that the details of the survey suggest this could not be sustained without a resolution of the crisis in the Middle East. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin has demonstrated significant strength this week, supported by substantial institutional demand. Current data shows ETF inflows have reached $1.5 billion, a trend that contributed to over $200 million in short liquidations and provided strong upward price pressure. This momentum has allowed Bitcoin to climb to its highest price level since early February, marking a notable recovery in market sentiment. From a technical perspective, as I wrote earlier this week, bulls were currently testing a key breakout zone, identifying $78,250 as the pivotal resistance level, with a path to $80k in BTC futures (reached yesterday).For a long time now, Bitcoin is no longer just a crypto story. It is a Wall Street product story too.BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT, has become one of the biggest bridges between traditional finance and Bitcoin, giving investors an easy way to gain spot BTC exposure through a regular brokerage account. For many market participants, this ETF is now one of the clearest signs that Bitcoin has moved deeper into the mainstream.That matters because IBIT is not just another ticker. It has become a major liquidity hub, a tool for institutional access, and a symbol of how Bitcoin is being absorbed into modern portfolio construction. For crypto natives, that may not replace the appeal of self-custody. But for traditional investors, it has changed the game.Before IBIT, many funds were structurally restricted from buying Bitcoin.With BlackRock’s involvement, that changed. Pension funds, wealth managers, retirement accounts - all these institutional players can now gain exposure without stepping outside regulatory frameworks. This is a major shift in how Bitcoin fits into modern portfolio construction.IBIT Technical AnalysisSo, in my video below, I am looking at IBIT on the daily chart of today's crypto technical analysis video at investingLive.comRemember, whatever forecasts including this bitcoin prediction and/or analysis that you read at investingLive.com - are opinions, not promises. You must always do your own research beyond the personal opinions and educational content, like this article, that you read. Invest and/or trade bitcoin at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.2Manufacturing PMI 52.2 vs 50.9 expectedPrior 51.6Composite PMI 48.6 vs 50.1 expectedPrior 50.7Similar to the French and German reports earlier, the industry sector shows a modest jump in activity but again it likely owes much to a frontloading in the order books. That as clients are choosing to secure shipments as quick as they can amid fears of widespread supply shortages and rising expenses.Meanwhile, surging input price inflation will be ultimate worry for businesses and also for the ECB. That will eventually have a much wider and bigger impact on the economy, as price pressures slowly trickle down to the consumer. For now, households have to deal with just higher fuel prices. But once businesses have to come to terms with rising operating costs, that will eventually be passed on to consumers and feed into core prices more prominently.And amid the struggles, we're already seeing the services sector take a significant knock in April. So, that won't bode well for the economic outlook for the months heading into the summer.HCOB notes that:“The eurozone is facing deepening economic woes from the war in the Middle East, presenting a major headache for policymakers. The conflict has pushed the economy into decline in April, while driving inflation sharply higher. Increasingly widespread supply shortages meanwhile threaten to dampen growth further while adding more upward pressure to prices in the coming weeks. “April’s flash PMI has moved into contraction territory for the first time since late 2024, signalling a 0.1% quarterly rate of GDP decline after a 0.2% gain had been signalled for the first quarter. The war is currently hitting the service sector hardest, where business activity is falling at a rate not seen since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021. However, the sustained growth of manufacturing meanwhile seen in April comes with something of a sting in the tail, as demand for goods is being buoyed by stock building as companies scramble to secure purchases ahead of further price hikes or supply shortages. Manufacturers have increased their buying of inputs to a degree not witnessed since early 2022 as supply chain delays have also risen to the most widespread since the pandemic. “Input costs and selling prices have already jumped higher not just in response to higher energy costs but in a reflection of a broader upturn in commodity prices and mis-match of demand against constrained supply. If the COVID-19 pandemic is excluded, this is the biggest surge in cost pressures that we have recorded since 2000. “Not surprisingly, businesses are taking an increasingly gloomy view of the outlook, with sentiment now down to its lowest since late 2022. “In this environment, the ECB once again has the unenviable task of deciding whether to raise interest rates in the face of the worrying inflation picture, or whether this price spike will prove temporary and its focus should instead be on the need to prevent the economy sliding into a deeper downturn. While postponing any decision could make either scenario worse, it would be understandable to see rate setters sit on their hands and await more clarity on the situation, both in terms of the conflict and the assessment of the eurozone’s economic health.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 52.2Services PMI 46.9 vs 50.4 expectedPrior 50.9Composite PMI 48.3 vs 51.2 expectedPrior 51.9The US-Iran war is clearly weighing on economic activity as growth slows down further while inflation rises. The composite PMI fell into contraction for the first time since May 2025.The agency notes: "The recovery in the German economy has been stopped in its tracks by the war in the Middle East. The manufacturing sector saw output and new orders edge higher, although there are warning signs that it could slip back into contraction. There's seemingly been little spillover to the labour market as yet, with jobs being cut at only a slightly faster rate than the trend in the months before the war started. That could change if activity remains supressed and energy prices remain elevated".This is not going to change anything for the ECB as the central bank has already signalled it's going to keep interest rates steady in April as it gathers more information. It's going to be hard though to hike rates into an economic slowdown as it could exacerbate the negative effects. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.8Manufacturing PMI 52.8 vs 49.5 expectedPrior 50.0Composite PMI 47.6 vs 48.6 expectedPrior 48.8French economic activity is seen contracting at its quickest pace in 14 months as the fallout from the Middle East conflict continues to bite at Europe's second largest economy. That comes despite some positive news from the industrial side of things, with stronger factory output growth recorded for the month.That being said, the jump in factory order books owes much to some frontloading activity. It is the first time in nearly four years that the order book expanded but it is mostly due to clients bringing forward purchases ahead of expected shortages and price increases as supply issues arise from the Strait of Hormuz closure.To nobody's surprise, input price inflation continued to surge higher in April - rising to a three-year high. A mix of higher costs for energy, fuel, transportation, chemicals and metals were commonly mentioned by panellists. So, just be mindful of that as it will eventually reverberate to all other aspects of the economy in due time.HCOB notes that:"There is a lot to unpack in the latest 'flash' PMI data for France. The service economy has deteriorated due to a diminishing willingness to spend – a typical consequence of uncertainty – pulling overall business activity levels lower. Preventing the headline 'flash' index from falling even further below 50.0 was the manufacturing sector, which saw a production rebound in April. However, this does not look like a turning point and will likely be temporary, as our survey respondents reported advance purchasing from customers in anticipation of price increases, shortages and logistics issues. "Unsurprisingly, manufacturing inflation moved even higher in April as a range of raw material costs rose, transportation became more expensive and supply bottlenecks pushed up prices. Services companies are also feeling the pressure from higher transportation costs. What's most notable is that the passthrough to prices charged for goods and services remains contained. Services charges have barely moved since the outbreak of the war, which will be a welcome sight for policymakers in the European Central Bank. How long this continues remains to be seen, however, given the strain that corporate margins will be feeling." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 97It's a notable miss on estimates as the French business climate worsens significantly amid the fallout from the US-Iran conflict. The reading is the lowest since February 2021.Manufacturing confidence actually held up in April, recording a 100 reading compared to 99 in March. However, the were marked deteriorations in both services (94 compared to 96 previously) and the retail trade sector (94 compared to 100 previously). The employment index held steady at 95 on the month.Higher energy prices that feeds to higher input cost inflation, which will also dampen domestic demand eventually, is what is weighing on the general outlook here.Trouble, trouble. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. We already got the PMIs for Australia and Japan and although they showed resilience, they highlighted that the war in the Middle East is the key factor dampening optimism, with economic performance unlikely to be sustained unless uncertainty is reduced and supply chains stabilise. This war is affecting everyone, so we should see similar responses in the other PMIs.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the US Jobless Claims data and the Flash US PMIs. Initial Claims are expected at 210K vs 207K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1816K vs 1818K prior. The labour market data has been very good lately which isn't justifying any kind of rate cut the market has been pricing in. On the contrary, if the war ends soon, we might see even stronger economic activity going forward which could bring rate hikes back on the table. The US Flash PMIs are expected to pretty much mirror the sentiment of the others. The last release showed a combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, and that might not have changed much.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS15:00 GMT/11:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.