Australia Private Sector Credit for November 2025: +0.6% m/mexpected +0.6%, prior +0.7% Summary Credit growth matched expectations in November Lending remains steady, as do rates for now Limited implications for RBA policyAustralia’s private sector credit growth held steady in November, offering little in the way of fresh signals for monetary policy but reinforcing the view of a cautiously expanding credit environment.Data published by the Reserve Bank of Australia showed private sector credit rose 0.6% month-on-month in November, in line with market expectations and only marginally softer than the 0.7% increase recorded in October. The result points to stable borrowing conditions across the economy, with neither a sharp acceleration nor a meaningful slowdown in credit demand.Private sector credit is a broad measure capturing lending to households and businesses, and is closely watched as an indicator of financial conditions, economic momentum and the transmission of monetary policy. Sustained strength in credit growth can signal rising demand and inflationary pressure, while weakness may point to tighter financial conditions and slowing activity.The November reading suggests that stable interest rates continue to restrain borrowing at the margin, but have not triggered a sharp contraction in credit. Household balance sheets remain relatively resilient, while business borrowing appears steady, supported by ongoing investment needs and population-driven demand.For the RBA, the data is unlikely to materially shift the policy outlook on its own. Credit growth at this pace is broadly consistent with an economy growing modestly below trend.From a market perspective, private sector credit is best viewed as a secondary indicator, offering confirmation rather than a catalyst. FX and rates markets tend to respond more directly to inflation, wages and labour market data, with credit figures used to validate broader narratives around growth and financial conditions.Still, the steadiness of credit growth matters at the margin. A sustained deceleration would strengthen the case for eventual easing, while any renewed acceleration could reignite concerns about household leverage and inflation persistence.This screenshot shows the dates of Reserve Bank of Australia policy meetings coming in 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary Goldman expects three BoE cuts in 2026In March, June and September, from their previous forecast of a cut in each of February, April, and July.Labour market weakening supports easing Inflation seen remaining containedThe Bank of England’s decision to cut interest rates on 18 December has reinforced expectations that the UK central bank is entering a more sustained easing cycle, with Goldman Sachs continuing to forecast multiple rate cuts through 2026 amid weakening economic momentum.In a research note, Goldman said it expects the BoE to deliver 25 basis point cuts in March, June and September, revising its earlier call that had pencilled in moves in February, April and July. The shift in timing reflects the bank’s assessment that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will proceed cautiously but steadily as evidence mounts that inflation pressures are easing and labour market conditions are deteriorating.Goldman argues that recent UK data has increasingly tilted risks toward a softer growth outlook. Labour market indicators have shown signs of cooling, including slower hiring, rising unemployment risks and easing wage pressures. At the same time, the bank expects inflation to remain well-behaved through 2026, reducing the need for the BoE to maintain a restrictive policy stance.While markets currently price a gradual pace of easing, Goldman sees scope for the BoE to cut rates more aggressively than investors anticipate if incoming data continues to confirm these trends. The bank notes that weak activity data could give policymakers greater confidence to lean dovish, particularly if inflation expectations remain anchored.The December cut marked a shift in the BoE’s policy narrative, signalling that the balance of risks has moved away from persistent inflation and toward supporting growth. However, policymakers are expected to retain a data-dependent approach, closely monitoring wage dynamics, services inflation and broader financial conditions.From a market perspective, the evolving BoE outlook has implications for UK rates, sterling and relative monetary policy divergence. A faster or deeper easing cycle would likely weigh on the pound while supporting UK risk assets, particularly if global central banks move more cautiously.Overall, Goldman’s revised forecast underscores growing confidence that the BoE’s tightening phase is firmly over, with the next challenge centred on calibrating the pace and depth of rate cuts as the UK economy navigates a softer growth environment. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence for December 2025: -17 vs. expected -18, prior -19 Summary Improved modestly in DecemberBudget restraint and easing inflation offered support Spending remains weak despite real wage gains British consumer confidence edged higher in December, reaching its joint-highest level of the year, though sentiment remains weak by historical standards, according to a closely watched monthly survey from GfK.The GfK consumer confidence index rose to -17 in December, matching levels last seen in October and August. The reading marks the strongest level since August 2024, shortly after the Labour government took office, but still points to a cautious and fragile consumer backdrop.The modest improvement followed Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ annual budget, which imposed relatively few immediate tax increases on households. While the budget raised Britain’s overall tax burden by around £26 billion per year, this was notably smaller than the £40 billion increase announced in 2024, and much of the additional tax impact will not take effect until later years.GfK noted that households’ assessment of the general economic outlook improved more than perceptions of their own personal finances. Encouragingly, consumers’ willingness to make major purchases recorded the largest gain among the survey’s components, suggesting tentative signs of easing caution.Commenting on the data, GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy likened consumers to “a family on a festive winter hike,” moving forward slowly while hoping for better conditions ahead, a metaphor that captures both resilience and ongoing uncertainty.The confidence uptick also comes against a slightly more supportive inflation backdrop. Consumer price inflation slowed to 3.2% in November, its lowest level since March, and the government’s budget included measures to shift climate-related costs away from household energy bills and into general taxation, potentially easing near-term pressure on disposable incomes.Despite these factors, consumer spending in the UK has remained subdued. Although wages have outpaced inflation this year, households — like their counterparts across much of Europe — have continued to save at elevated rates. This reluctance to spend has puzzled economists and suggests that confidence, while improving, has yet to translate into a meaningful recovery in consumption. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary Core CPI held at 3.0% in November Underlying inflation pressures remain firm Data supports gradual BoJ tighteningJapan’s nationwide inflation data for November showed price pressures remaining firmly entrenched, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual path toward policy normalisation.Government data released on Friday showed core consumer prices rose 3.0% year-on-year in November, matching market expectations and marking another month of inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The core measure excludes fresh food prices but includes energy, making it one of the most closely watched gauges of underlying inflation trends.Headline inflation was little changed, with overall CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, underscoring persistent price pressures across the economy despite recent volatility in energy markets and a modest slowdown in global growth momentum.A broader measure of underlying inflation, which excludes both fresh food and energy prices, also rose 3.0% from a year earlier. The strength of this “core-core” gauge suggests inflation is no longer being driven solely by imported cost pressures, but is increasingly supported by domestic factors such as services prices, labour costs and corporate pricing behaviour.The November data reinforces the view that Japan’s inflation backdrop remains fundamentally different from the deflationary environment that characterised much of the past two decades. While policymakers continue to stress the need for sustainable, demand-driven inflation, recent readings point to a more persistent trend than initially expected.From a policy perspective, the inflation figures strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike, which would take its policy rate to the highest level in roughly three decades. However, officials are likely to maintain a cautious tone, mindful of the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields and the sensitivity of financial conditions to further tightening.For markets, the data is broadly in line with expectations and therefore unlikely to trigger significant volatility on its own. Instead, attention is expected to remain focused on the BoJ’s policy guidance and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s assessment of whether current inflation dynamics are sufficiently durable to justify further rate increases over time. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary Goldman sees CPI having limited Fed impact December data more important for January meeting Core PCE disinflation remains intactThe latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data released on 18 December is unlikely to materially alter the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook, according to Goldman Sachs, which argues policymakers will instead focus on inflation data still to come ahead of the January FOMC meeting.In a note following the CPI release, Goldman said today’s reading is “unlikely to move the needle” for the Fed, despite headline and core measures continuing to show progress on disinflation. The bank emphasised that December inflation data, which will be released just before the Fed’s January meeting, will carry greater significance for policymakers assessing whether price pressures are cooling in a sustained manner.Goldman’s analysis suggests that recent downside surprises in core CPI have been driven largely by technical and timing-related factors rather than a broad-based easing in underlying inflation. Specifically, the firm points to a sizeable drag from shelter components, stemming from methodological issues related to missing October data, as well as softer core goods prices due to later-than-usual price collection in November.Looking beyond CPI, Goldman estimates that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose by an average of 0.12% month-on-month across October and November. The bank estimates a 0.10% increase in October and 0.14% in November, which would lower the year-on-year core PCE rate to 2.66% in November, down from 2.83% in September.(As an aside, there is no official release date yet set for the November PCE and core PCE data).While this trajectory supports the broader disinflation narrative, Goldman cautions against over-interpreting recent CPI softness. The firm notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet clarified how it will address the identified distortions, raising the possibility that some of the recent drag could reverse in coming months.Goldman expects part of the shelter weakness to unwind in future releases, while goods inflation could re-accelerate modestly in December. As a result, the bank sees the Fed remaining patient, with policymakers likely to rely on a broader run of data rather than a single CPI print when shaping policy decisions in early 2026. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary Reports suggest Cybercab testing on public roads Austin seen as key autonomy testing hub Autonomy central to Tesla’s long-term narrative Shares of Tesla are likely to draw fresh attention after social media reports suggested the company’s long-awaited Cybercab vehicle has been spotted testing on public roads in Austin, Texas for the first time. While Tesla has not formally confirmed the sightings, the reports have fuelled speculation that development of its dedicated autonomous ride-hailing vehicle may be entering a more advanced testing phase.According to posts circulating on X, the vehicle appeared to be operating on open roads rather than closed or private testing areas, a step that would mark a meaningful milestone for Tesla’s autonomous ambitions. Austin has become a central hub for Tesla’s self-driving efforts, hosting both its headquarters and extensive testing operations, and is viewed as a favourable regulatory environment for autonomous vehicle trials.The Cybercab concept, unveiled earlier this year, is designed as a purpose-built, fully autonomous vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals, aimed at powering a future robotaxi network. Tesla has positioned the project as a key pillar of its long-term growth strategy, arguing that autonomy and mobility services could eventually eclipse vehicle sales as a revenue driver.Market focus has increasingly shifted toward tangible progress on autonomy following years of ambitious timelines from Chief Executive Elon Musk. Public-road testing, if confirmed, would be seen as an incremental but important step toward regulatory approval and broader commercial deployment, though significant hurdles remain.Regulatory scrutiny, safety validation and real-world performance data are expected to be decisive factors. U.S. regulators have taken a more cautious stance on autonomous driving claims in recent years, and any expansion of testing will likely be closely monitored at both state and federal levels.From an investor perspective, the reports underline Tesla’s effort to re-anchor its valuation narrative around artificial intelligence and autonomy at a time when global EV demand growth has moderated. While near-term financial impact is limited, progress on Cybercab development could influence longer-term expectations for Tesla’s addressable market and margin potential.For now, markets await official confirmation from Tesla, with sentiment likely to remain sensitive to further evidence of real-world testing and regulatory engagement. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary PM office source raises nuclear weapons debate Comments clash with Japan’s non-nuclear tradition Security concerns driving renewed discussion Japan’s long-standing stance on nuclear weapons has come under renewed scrutiny after a source within the prime minister’s office suggested the country may ultimately need to possess nuclear arms, comments that risk sparking political backlash both domestically and internationally. Kyodo reporting. Speaking to reporters on Thursday, the source — who is involved in shaping security policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government — said Japan should consider nuclear weapons in principle, while simultaneously acknowledging that such a move would be highly impractical. “I think we should possess nuclear weapons,” the source said, adding that “in the end, we can only rely on ourselves,” while stressing that nuclear armament is not something that could be achieved quickly.The remarks come as Prime Minister Takaichi, known for her hawkish views on national security, weighs whether to review Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles, which prohibit the possession, production, or introduction of nuclear weapons. First articulated by then-Prime Minister Eisaku Sato in 1967, the principles became a cornerstone of Japan’s postwar identity. Sato later received the Nobel Peace Prize in 1974 for his role in promoting nuclear restraint.Any attempt to revisit Japan’s nuclear policy remains deeply controversial. Public opposition is rooted in the country’s pacifist constitution and its unique historical experience as the only nation to have suffered atomic bombings. The issue also conflicts with Japan’s longstanding diplomatic commitment to nuclear disarmament, a cause strongly supported by survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.At the same time, critics note that Japan already relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella for deterrence, a dependence some argue sits uneasily alongside the non-nuclear principles. This tension has periodically resurfaced during periods of heightened regional security risk.The prime minister’s office source said there had been no direct discussion with Takaichi on formally revising the principles. Still, the comments have revived memories of past political fallout: in 1999, then parliamentary vice defence minister Shingo Nishimura was dismissed after suggesting Japan consider nuclear armament.For now, the remarks underscore the growing strain between Japan’s historical pacifism and evolving regional security realities.---When these guys are your near neighbor ... Anyway, more near term, the BoJ is set to make history today:Economic and event calendar in Asia December 19, 2025 - Bank of Japan rate hike expected This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The GBPUSD pair has transformed into a technical battleground as the trading week nears its close. A combination of a divided Bank of England (BoE) and a cooling US inflation report has created a "whipsaw" environment, leaving the price resting precariously on a significant layer of technical support.The BoE Catalyst: A narrow 5-4 vote for a "hawkish cut" by the Bank of England initially sparked Sterling strength, signaling that the path to future rate cuts remains steep.The CPI Whipsaw: A soft US CPI print (2.7%) sent the pair to a multi-week high of 1.3446 before a massive retracement saw the pair surrender all daily gains.The Technical Floor: The price is currently testing a "cluster" of four major moving averages between 1.3348 and 1.3380, a zone that will define the trend for the Friday close.Breaking Down the Momentum: From Hawkish Cuts to Soft CPIThe initial leg of the GBPUSD rally was fundamentally driven. The Bank of England’s decision to cut rates—but with a clear 5-4 split—indicated to the markets that the BoE is not in a rush to ease aggressively. This "hawkish lean" gave the British Pound a head start against a softening Greenback.Later, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) added fuel to the fire. The weaker-than-expected inflation data triggered a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar, propelling the "Cable" above a series of key daily and hourly moving averages. This move saw the pair challenge the highs of the last two weeks, specifically testing the Tuesday peak near 1.3455.The "Moving Average Cluster" BarometerDespite the breakout, momentum failed to hold. The pair has retraced back into a dense zone where four critical moving averages are currently overlapping. This "cluster" acts as a massive technical pivot point:100-Hour MA: 1.33804 (The current immediate ceiling)200-Hour MA: 1.33640100-Day MA: 1.33616200-Day MA: 1.33488 (The ultimate floor)As long as the price remains within or above this zone, the "Up and Down" volatility theme persists. The price action today reached as low as 1.3370 before stabilizing slightly, keeping the market in a state of high suspense.The Roadmap: What to Watch for the Friday CloseAs we transition into the final session of the week, the cluster of moving averages will serve as the primary barometer for directional bias.The Bullish ScenarioFor the buyers to reclaim the driver's seat, they must keep the price sustained above the 1.33804 (100-hour MA). A push above the 1.3405 swing area is required to confirm that the bears have been flushed out. If successful, the door opens for another run toward the recent highs at 1.34526.The Bearish ScenarioIf the sellers gain enough traction to break below the bottom of the cluster at 1.33488 (200-day MA), the technical picture turns decidedly bearish. A break here would likely trigger a retest of the weekly low at 1.33118, with a secondary target at last week's low and the key 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.32833.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into these GBPUSD technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you define the bias, the risk, and the specific targets that will matter most today and going forward.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

If clarity arrives that inflation is waning, then rates can come downIS uncomfortable front-loading rate cutsNeeds to see more sustained progress on cooling inflationMeasure of job market have shown pretty steady coolingRates can go down a fair bit as long as we know we're heading back to 2% inflationIt doesn't sound like he's opposed to another cut in January if the data cooperates. The pricing is still at 25% for a Jan cut.He said previously that his dot plot was below the median. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

At the end of the day, a government's economic job is to spend money and collect taxes. The ones that spend too much ultimately have to pay it back, with interest. Running deficits is almost always popular with voters (and certainly with donors), particularly when it makes the stock market go up.BCA today has a great chart showing just how much more the US has been spending than any other major economy. The deficits are out of control and were worsened further this year by latest round of corporate tax cuts.The damage started with Trump's election really. That tamed the Tea Party movement and it's since been wiped out completely. the The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 kicked off the spending orgy, covid worsened it, Biden added his infrastructure act and now Trump has gone back to the deficit trough. There is no end to it and seemingly no political appetite to deal with it. Rather, we're more likely to get politicians who lean on central banks to monetize the deficit with artificially low rates.What's worse in the US situation is that it's sitting on a time bomb around social security, medicare and healthcare in general. Congress doesn't look like it will pass Obamacare subsidies so those rates will rise in the new year but the pressure to help people pay for healthcare isn't going to go away, nor will the aging demographics and out-of-control costs of US treatment.Notably, the US dollar has been in a bull market for nearly the entirety of this chart and I don't think that's a coincidence. If/when Congress changes its tune on deficits (or the market barks), that's going to be a reversal in the USD excess. At the same time, I don't think it's a surprise that euro had a better year this year as Germany signalled a loosening of spending in order to fund military investments. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

President Trump is planning to issue an executive order establishing two new federal holiday, according to Axios.The move would make Dec 24 and Dec 26 holidays, in addition to Christmas which is already a day off. It would apply to Federal workers but not state and local governments In reality, many workers already get these days off but some are forced to use holidays. This time of year is a great time to unwind and spend time with family and anything that stretches that timeline is good news, even if it results in a slight hit to productivity. The New York Stock Exchange currently doesn't close for either the 24th or 26th but there is an early close at 1 pm ET on the 24th. Liquidity is low at that time of year and it might be beneficial to close the market anyway. There is no obligation for exchanges to follow the federal calendar and don't for Columbus Day and Veterans Day.For the bond market, SIFMA also doesn't follow the federal calendar so ultimately this would have little direct effect on anything but could be an important signaling mechanism, or at least a way for Trump to score back some points with federal workers after the government shutdown.Axois also notes that it's not clear if Trump even has the authority to grant multiple days off by executive order but I would imagine Congress would find that hard to fight. The most recent Juneteenth holiday was passed by Congress.Other orders that Trump is considering are reclassifying cannabis and tariff rebate checks.On tariffs, the Supreme Court is likely to decide early in the year on whether tariffs are legal. If not, issuing rebates could cause a big hole in the deficit, in particularly because tariffs may have to be refunded. There is no fixed date on that decision and the Supreme Court technically has until June but important questions are usually decided early. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The global metals market is witnessing a significant divergence as structural demand fuels a bullish outlook for gold and copper, while cyclical headwinds pressure industrial materials. Goldman Sachs has doubled down on its "long gold" conviction, projecting a double-digit rally by 2026.Gold's $4,900 Target: Goldman Sachs has identified a 14% upside risk for gold, forecasting prices to hit $4,900/oz by December 2026, driven by central bank demand and its role as a strategic reserve.Copper vs. Aluminum: The bank maintains a $15,000/ton target for copper by 2035, recommending a "long copper / short aluminum" pair trade to capitalize on the widening supply-demand gap.Bearish Pressure: Aluminum and iron ore are facing a "full oversupply cycle," with aluminum expected to drop nearly 20% by the end of 2026 as global surpluses expand.Gold Technicals: Defending the 100-Hour Moving AverageFollowing Goldman's optimistic report, gold price action has remained remarkably resilient. After reaching a daily high of $4,375.17—falling just short of the October all-time high of $4,381.84—the price faced a minor corrective rotation.Crucially, the intraday dip found aggressive buyers near the 100-hour moving average (the blue line on your chart). Despite briefly slipping below this level to a low of $4,308.81, the price failed to stay down. The quick recovery above the $4,319 moving average confirms that bullish bias remains intact.The Path to $5,000: Targets and Risk LevelsTo validate Goldman Sachs' 12.8% projected run for 2026, the technical "roadmap" must align with the fundamental narrative. Here is what to watch:The Bullish ObjectiveFor the uptrend to accelerate, buyers need to:Establish a firm base above the 100-hour moving average ($4,319).Clear the October all-time high of $4,381.84. A sustained break above this level is the "green light" for a move toward psychological milestones at $4,500 and eventually the $4,900–$5,000 zone.The Bearish RiskIf the sellers are to gain a foothold, they must:Force a decisive close below the 100-hour MA.Push the price toward the 200-hour moving average (currently at $4,268.85). Only a break below the "green line" would signal a shift in control from the buyers to the sellers in the short term.Structural vs. Cyclical: The Metals DivideGoldman's outlook highlights a clear "quality" preference in commodities. While Gold and Copper are viewed as structural necessities for central bank reserves and AI/Green energy infrastructure, Aluminum and Iron Ore are suffering from weakening Chinese demand and rising global supply. This makes technical levels in gold even more vital, as the "buy the dip" mentality is supported by long-term institutional positioning.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends, provides a real-time breakdown of the gold charts. He explores the Goldman Sachs targets, identifies the specific hourly moving averages to define your risk, and outlines the next upside targets that would keep the buyers in control at least in the short term. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The euro dipped on an ECB sources report with a slight dovish tilt:Policymakers had no appetite to take a rate cut off the tablePolicymakers expect to keep rates on holdSee risks to growth and inflation as balancedFear some lower growth outcomesThis all sounds about right and shouldn't be a big surprise. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US equity markets are catching a massive tailwind today as a "triple threat" of positive catalysts sends indices soaring. A significant miss in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), coupled with resilient tech earnings, has forced short-sellers to retreat and invited buyers back into the fold.Inflation Relief: US CPI cooled to 2.7% (vs. 3.1% expected), the lowest in months, fueling expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts extending into 2026.Tech Resilience: Stronger-than-expected earnings from the chip and AI sectors have stabilized the Nasdaq after a volatile week, proving there is still "heat" in the secular AI trade.The Technical Pivot: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are testing their 200-hour moving averages, a critical threshold that will determine if this is a relief rally or a full trend reversal.Nasdaq Defends the "Golden" RetracementThe technical precision in the Nasdaq yesterday was a sight to behold for chart watchers. As the index slid toward the close, it hit the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the massive rally from the August lows to the October highs.That level—22,698.34—was defended almost to the tick, with the session low reaching 22,693.37. This successful defense provided the springboard for today's massive "gap higher."The Nasdaq’s 200-Hour MA StandoffDespite the bullish gap, the Nasdaq has now reached a critical roadblock: the 200-hour moving average (23,115.86). Earlier this week, the price attempted to breach this level but was met with heavy selling pressure.Traders now face a pivotal choice:The Bullish Break: A sustained move above 23,115 shifts the focus to the 100-hour MA at 23,337.The Bearish Lean: If sellers "lean" against the 200-hour MA again, we could see a rotation back down to fill the morning gap.S&P 500: Buyers Take the Upper HandThe S&P 500 is showing even more relative strength than its tech-heavy counterpart. Earlier in the session, it vaulted above its own 200-hour moving average (6,777.96) and has since moved significantly higher, currently up 1.3%.For the S&P, the next major hurdle is the 100-hour moving average at 6,833.08. Getting and staying above that level would effectively neutralize the recent downside pressure and signal that the bulls are back in firm control of the broader market.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into the NASDAQ and S&P technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you define bias, risk, and outlines the specific targets that will matter most for the remainder of the trading week.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Canada spent weeks trying to get a deal for steel and aluminum producers in the autumn. At one point a deal looked very close and Trump even hinted that it was coming.However the deal fell apart and Trump blew up over Ontario's tariff ads. The leaders met at the FIFA World Cup draw and the commentary was positive but it looks like no help is coming for steel and aluminum for now. That said, the help could come in 2026 as a broader trade deal is negotiated. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told members of U.S. Congress Wednesday that there were some things the US wanted from Canada before extending the USMCA for 16 years. Some points in a leaked document:Access to the dairy marketCanada’s Online Streaming Act and Online News ActProvincial bans on U.S. alcohol productsAlberta’s unfair treatment of electrical power distribution providers in MontanaGovernment procurementThat seems like a reasonable starting point for negotiations. A key timeline to watch is early, which is when the US will outline its USMCA plans to Congress in more detail.Perhaps the larger difficulty in negotiations will be the US trying to align North American policy, while also asking so much of its neighbours while continuing to restrict access to its markets. From the same document, here are some US priorities:Strengthening rules of origin for non-automotive industrial goods to ensure trade benefits flow to the Parties.Enhancing alignment on tariffs, export controls, and investment screening.Developing mechanisms to penalize the offshoring of U.S. production to Canada or Mexico resulting from regulatory arbitrage.Developing a "Critical Minerals Marketplace" to incentivize regional mining, processing, and manufacturingDespite all the drama, the Canadian dollar has outperformed the US dollar this year and is near a three-month low. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I expect UK CPI to fall to near 2% target in April or May 2026Policy stance is still restrictive but I expected pace of cuts to ease at some pointThis is perhaps less hawkish than I would have expected from the BOE statement earlier. He is still talking about rate cuts and inflation falling to 2% would certainly give him some latitude to tee-up cuts next year.Cable has retreated to just below 1.3400 from a high of 1.3446 but it has been caught up in a fair bit of USD volatility today as well. There has been no reaction to the latest comments. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD has reached a critical technical crossroads. After a strong rally from the mid-November lows, the "Aussie" is now facing its first major test of structural support. Sellers have officially wrestled back short-term control, but a key Fibonacci floor stands in their way.Shift in Power: For the first time since mid-November, sellers have pushed the price below the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, ending a period where bulls were firmly "in control."The Resistance Ceiling: A major swing area between 0.66247 and 0.6635 (dating back to July) has flipped from support to resistance, capping today's post-CPI bounce.The Downside Target: The ultimate "line in the sand" for buyers is the 38.2% retracement at 0.6584. Failure to hold this level could open the trap door for a much deeper correction.Sellers Break the "Bull Run" MomentumSince the mid-November low of 0.6420, the AUDUSD enjoyed a nearly uninterrupted climb to last week's peak of 0.66851. However, that momentum hit a brick wall yesterday.The pair decisively moved below both the 100-hour moving average (blue line) and the 200-hour moving average (green line). More importantly, it fell beneath a historical swing zone between 0.66247 and 0.6635. This area has been a vital technical pivot since July; by trading below it, the short-term bias has shifted from "buy the dips" to "sell the rallies."US CPI Data and the Failed RecoveryIn today's trading, the Asian-Pacific session saw an extension of this bearish momentum, with prices dropping to 0.6592. While US CPI data initially sent the US Dollar lower and sparked a relief rally in the Aussie, the bounce was short-lived.As the price extended back into the 0.66247–0.6635 swing area, it ran directly into the falling 100-hour moving average. Buyers immediately turned into sellers at this level, confirming that the technical "ceiling" is holding firm.The Battle Lines: 0.6584 vs. 0.6638The market is currently trapped in a tactical battle. Here is how to define your risk for the next move:The Bearish View: Sellers remain in charge as long as the price stays below the 100-hour moving average and the 0.6635 swing level. Their immediate goal is a break through the 38.2% retracement at 0.6584. If they clear that hurdle, the correction is likely to accelerate.The Bullish View: Buyers are leaning on the fact that the 38.2% retracement has yet to be touched. To reclaim dominance, they must push the price back above the 200-hour moving average (0.6638). Staying above this "green line" would negate the recent breakdown and signal that the uptrend is ready to resume.Watch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author ofAttacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into these AUDUSD technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you defines the bias, the risk, and outlines the specific targets that will matter most for the remainder of the trading week.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Santa Claus may have finally arrived at the New York Stock Exchange.Shares are surging today after a four-day slump. The S&P 500 is up 87 points, or 1.3% while the Nasdaq is up 1.9%.The S&P 500 has nearly wiped out yesterday's harsh selloff.The rally has been helped along by a soft US inflation report. The numbers were likely skewed lower by the US government shutdown and data collection issues but the market is taking it generally at face value. Year-over-year inflation fell to 2.6% from 3.0% and that could prompt some Fed officials to push harder for rate cuts int he new year. The market has nearly fully priced in a cut in April or sooner.The big winner on the day is Micron, which is up 11% after smashing revenue estimates in earnings released late yesterday. The AI energy plays are also near the top of the leaderboard with GE Vernova, Constellation Energy and Vistra all up more than 5%Another winner is Lululemon, which replaced its CEO this week. Starbucks is also strong as consumer spending showed and uptick in Darden's quarterly report.On the downside, Service Now and Lennar continue to struggle after heavy selloffs yesterday.In terms of megacap tech, they're all rallying:NVDA +3%META +3%AMZN +3.1%TSLA +3.9%MSFT +2.0%GOOG +1.9%AAPL +0.1% This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD pair is currently locked in a high-stakes technical tug-of-war. After a persistent decline from the late November highs, the price is wedged between two defining trend indicators, creating a "make-or-break" moment for short-term traders.The Battleground: Price is squeezed between the 100-hour MA (1.3769) and the 200-hour MA (1.3795), signaling a shift from a trending market to a consolidative one.Key Support: The 1.3720–1.3726 zone remains a "line in the sand" for sellers, having held firm as a triple-bottom floor since August.What’s Next: A sustained break above 1.3800 opens the door for a recovery, while a move below the 100-hour MA shifts the bias back to the bears.Understanding the 100-Hour Moving Average ResistanceSince the end of November, the 100-hour moving average (the blue line on your chart) has acted as a formidable ceiling for the USDCAD. From November 26 until very recently, every corrective bounce was met with aggressive selling whenever it approached this level. In fact, price tested this average on five separate occasions, and each time, the sellers successfully defended the downtrend.This type of "stair-step" lower confirms that the institutional bias was firmly bearish, using the 100-hour MA as a primary risk-defining level for short positions.The Tide Turns: Tuesday’s Bottom and the BreakoutThe narrative began to shift on Tuesday. The pair found a significant floor between 1.3720 and 1.3726. This isn't just a random number; this area represents a structural support zone going back to August and September, where three distinct bottoms were formed.When the price dipped to 1.3729 (just 3 pips shy of the high of that zone) and bounced, it signaled that the "value buyers" were stepping back in. This momentum was strong enough to finally push the USDCAD above the 100-hour moving average yesterday—a feat the bulls hadn't accomplished in weeks.The Current Standoff: 100 MA vs. 200 MAWhile the break above the 100-hour MA was a victory for the bulls, the celebration was short-lived. The higher 200-hour moving average (the green line) stands at 1.3795, acting as the new ceiling. Yesterday, momentum faded just before reaching that target.Today, we are seeing a classic "retest of support." The price rotated lower but found a floor exactly at the 100-hour moving average. It then bounced back toward the 200-hour MA, where sellers are currently "leaning" against the level to prevent a full-scale reversal.Strategic Outlook: Bullish vs. Bearish ScenariosThe market is currently in a state of equilibrium, but the breakout from this 26-pip range (1.3769 to 1.3795) will likely dictate the next major move.The Bullish CaseTo confirm a shift in control, buyers must:Maintain the price above the 100-hour MA (blue line on chart below at 1.3769) on any dips.Force a daily close above the 200-hour MA (green line on the chart below at 1.3795).Clear the psychological 1.3800 resistance area to invite new momentum buyers.The Bearish CaseTo regain the dominant downtrend, sellers must:Push the price back below the 100-hour MA.Hold the price below that level to trap the "late" buyers.Target a retest of the 1.3720–1.3726 floor. A break below this multi-month support would open the door for a significant extension of the downsideWatch the Video AnalysisIn the video above, Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends, provides a deep dive into these technical levels. He breaks down the real-time price action, helps you define your risk at these moving averages, and outlines the specific targets that will matter most for the remainder of the trading week.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.