The White House is out with damage control after Trump leaked the jobs numbers late yesterday on Truth Social."Following the regular procedure of presidents being prebriefed on economic data releases, there was an inadvertent public disclosure of aggregate data that was partially derived from pre-released information. The White House is accordingly reviewing protocols regarding economic data releases. ”The statement continued with some kind of rant about the media.If you missed it: How Trump leaked the non-farm payrolls reportThe jobs report itself has led to a diminished pricing for a rate cut in March. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines from Barkin:Federal Reserve changes must be finely tuned to incoming dataBoth sides of central bank mandate face significant risksUnemployment remains at historic lows but has recently ticked upInflation has decreased but still remains above 2% targetInterest rates are now within range of neutral estimatesNo one wants labor market to experience further deteriorationUS economy has shown remarkable resilience despite major disruptionsJob growth and demand are currently narrow, driven by health care and aiHigh-income consumers are sustaining demand as sentiment dips elsewhereUncertainty from 2025 is expected to diminish as the "fog lifts"Tax refunds and deregulation will likely add stimulus to economyLower mortgage rates will not resolve fundamental housing supply shortagesBarkin is likely on the sidelines as earlier this month he said rates were "within the range of estimates of neutral". He is characterizing the current economic phase as a "delicate balance" where risks to employment and inflation are now roughly equal. While he acknowledges the economy’s resilience, he warns that growth is currently "narrow," heavily reliant on the AI ecosystem and wealthy consumers.He is particularly focused on layoff data to see if the current "low-hiring, low-firing" environment shifts toward a more significant downturn. Looking ahead, he anticipates that fiscal stimulus from recent tax changes and a reduction in policy uncertainty should support hiring and investment throughout 2026.In late 2025 (especially during the government data shutdown in October/November), Barkin described the Fed as "driving through fog" and "feeling its way through" a data-poor environment. His 2026 outlook is more optimistic; he expects the "fog to lift" and uncertainty to diminish.Barkin isn't a voter this year but he's a good barometer for the core of the FOMC. The dollar was unmoved on the comments and the market is now pricing April as 50/50 for a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Gold and silver have been volatile to start the year so far but the bulls have shown some impressive willingness to buy moderate dips. Now both are flirting with notable closes. Gold is attempting only its second-ever weekly close above $4500 after doing that on December 22 in holiday-thinned trading. Silver is attempting a weekly close above $80 for the first time ever.Both would be bullish signs.There was some profit taking after the huge moves in precious metals just after Christmas but they've found a footing in light of geopolitical turmoil. The US capture of Venezulan President Maduro is one factor but I would argue the even larger one is Trump continuing to openly call for the annexation of Greenland.That's the kind of thing that would certainly cause a schism with Europe and break NATO. It would leave no doubts as to the old world order returning and spark deep uncertainty. Along with that is the Supreme Court decision on tariffs. We were hoping for some clarity today but we didn't get a decision so we will keep waiting. Aside from the case itself, we will need to find out whether the Supreme Court is just a rubber stamp for the administration. If so, then it raises some troubling questions about the future of the US Constitutional order and whether or not Trump will try to outlast his second term.In terms of the chart, this is starting to look good for silver. It's managing to consolidate right at/near the top of the recent range. There have been efforts to knock it down towards a deeper retracement but the bids have been waiting. If there's some kind of bullish catalyst (a dovish Fed chair?) then maybe we see a fresh push.The gold chart is similar, though not nearly as parabolic. It's consolidating just below $4600 but if it can break out, I would expect $5000 to act as a magnet. Note the positive seasonals for precious metals run into February. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's time for Fed not to lose sight of inflation missionFed's job and inflation mandates are somewhat in tensionNeed to be 'laser focused' on lowering inflationInflation is 'a lot' above the 2% targetNo hire, no fire continues to be key labor market dynamicThe job market has been cooler but it's not clear its fundamentally weakerHearing about stress from sectors that depended on foreign workersCost pressures are not just from tariffsIt's very important we get inflation under controlInflation issues are still one of the economy's main challengesNow ended pandemic supports had buoyed lower income AmericansIn many ways U.S. has long had a K-shaped economyHigh end consumers have been spending, economy has been resilientAtlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintained a cautious, hawkish stance in his radio comments today, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve remains "laser focused" on returning inflation to its 2% target. He acknowledged that while the labor market is cooling, it is not yet fundamentally weak, describing the current environment as a "no hire, no fire" dynamic.Bostic noted a growing tension between the Fed's dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment. He highlighted that inflation remains significantly above target and remains a primary economic challenge. Furthermore, he pointed to a "K-shaped" economic reality where high-end consumer spending remains resilient, while lower-income households face increased stress following the end of pandemic-era supports.Addressing supply-side concerns, Bostic mentioned that cost pressures extend beyond tariffs, citing specific labor stresses in sectors dependent on foreign workers. None of this is a surprise as Bostic already said that he "penciled in no further reductions" in rates in 2026.That's in contrast to a market that sees 53 bps in easing this year but in the short-term the odds of a cut only rise to 50% in April, as today's non-farm payrolls report and lower unemployment rate pushed the timeline back.On top of that, Bostic is retiring on Feb 28 and we're waiting to hear who his replacement will be This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The non-farm payrolls came in a bit softer than the whisper numbers, giving the "bad news is good news" crowd a reason to cheer. For the ECB, it doesn't change much, but for equity bulls, it was the green light they needed to keep the momentum going.Here’s the closing scoreboard for the week ending January 9, 2026:The STOXX 600 rose 2.23% on the week, a solid performance that speaks to improving breadth across sectors. Cyclicals quietly outperformed defensives, suggesting investors are leaning into growth without fully abandoning caution.Germany’s DAX led the major benchmarks with a 2.86% weekly gain, continuing to benefit from easing energy concerns and resilience in industrial exporters. The move also reflects growing confidence that Europe’s manufacturing downturn may be stabilizing rather than accelerating.France’s CAC 40 added 1.89%, helped by strength in luxury and industrial names, while the FTSE 100 climbed 1.82%, outperforming global peers as energy and financials provided ballast.Southern Europe lagged slightly after a great year in 2025 but still finished higher. Italy’s FTSE MIB gained 0.75%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.92%, with banks consolidating after strong year-to-date runs.That's a solid first real trading week. There isn't too much intrigue on the ECB front as they've moved to the sidelines. In politics, they've been hammering out a MERCOSUR (South America) trading deal and that looks like it's heading towards completion. The hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal appear to be slipping but peace deals often come out of the blue so we will see what happens next. Russia used a hyper-sonic missile on Friday. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Late yesterday, Trump posted this on Truth Social:The problem is, that number didn't match up with what had been reported in the non-farm payrolls report data that had already been released. It also came after the Council of Economic Advisors was briefed on the jobs report (usually the afternoon before the release).The numbers only make sense if you add in the data released today:Now it would have taken some fancy modeling to map this to today's release and trade on it because there were revisions to Oct/Nov data today that would have to be factored it.That said, knowing these numbers certainly removed some of the tail risks around a very strong or very weak data point. The also highlight an administration that's playing loose with market-moving economic data. It undermines confidence that all the jobs numbers aren't leaked and traded on ahead of time.In terms of market reaction, the US dollar has been all over the map since the release. The kneejerk was higher on the falling unemployment, then it reversed based on large downward revisions to the jobs number but it's reversed again and the dollar is now broadly stronger.Mixed in with that market reaction has been the Supreme Court punting on the tariff decision for the week and a Japanese report suggesting a February election is coming. We're also dealing with flows around the start of the new year.US stock markets are higher today and that could be driving some flows as well but note that gold just broke $4500 and that speaks to some of the chaos in international affairs and leaks like this undermining confidence. Remember that the gold rally really kicked off in late August when Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics -- the agency that releases the non-farm payrolls report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The waiting continues.The US Supreme Court works in mysterious ways. The announced on Tuesday that this would be a 'decision day' but the court always has a large number of decisions to make and they don't pre-announce which one it will be.They technically have until June to make the tariff decision but because it was an expedited hearing with important economic effects, it's expected in January or February. As for the exact date, there is a large amount of work before the Supreme Court in the week beginning January 19, so that's a good bet.Until then, we will continue to wait for 'decision day' announcements and then prepare accordingly. For stocks with large tariff exposure, this is a tough trading paradigm because we don't know what's coming. For what it's worth, the administration sounds pretty confident that it can quickly reconstitute tariffs but whether those hold up may depend on what the Court says about these tariffs and the reasoning, particularly if they rule it's a 'major question', which is something that needs to go through Congress.“Our ‌expectation is that ⁠we’re going to ​win, and if we don’t win, then we know that we’ve got other tools ​that we could use that get us to the same place,” Hassett said in an ⁠interview on CNBC earlier today.Hassett specified that Section 301 would be part of the mix and that Greer is leading it (itself a bit of a clue). They've previously said it could also include Section 122 tariffs. See: How the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffsUltimately, I think this was a good dress rehearsal but if this continues into February, it's going to get tiresome for markets as it adds unnecessary uncertainty.The decision that was rendered today was on Bowe vs United States and the court ruled that federal prisoners are not barred from filing "do-over" claims in second or successive postconviction motions and that the Court has the jurisdiction to review such certification decisions. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Final December reading was 53.31-year inflation 4.2% vs 4.1% prior5 year inflation 3.4% vs 3.2% priorCurrent conditions 52.4 vs 50.7 priorExpectations 55.0 vs 54.6 priorThis isn't a great economic indicator as answers are increasingly politicized and the inflation numbers are volatile. There was a time when this was tier-2 economic data but it's been slowly downgraded. It's final moment in the sun was in covid when a jump in inflation expectations caused a panicky Fed to tilt towards deeper rate hikes. That jump was later revised away in an embarrassing moment for the Powell Fed.As for this report, it corresponds with a better mood from consumers. Spending over the holidays was solid, though not spectacular. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a contentious battleground across various sectors. Technology sees mixed outcomes, with notable declines and slight advances within sub-sectors. Industrials and Healthcare, however, show promising resilience, driving up overall market sentiment.? Tech Sector: Microsoft (MSFT) dropped by 0.44%, paving a cautious path for the broader tech landscape. Nvidia (NVDA) also faced a minor setback with a -0.30% dip. On a positive note, Oracle (ORCL) ticked up by 0.21%.?️ Industrials Surge: General Electric (GE) enjoyed a 0.62% rise, and Boeing (BA) inched up by 0.71%, indicating robust investor confidence in industrials amidst broader uncertainties.? Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY) led with a gain of 0.77%, reinforcing the sector's continued appeal amid healthcare innovations and solidity.Market Mood and TrendsThe current market mood reflects a spectrum of investor sentiment, with noteworthy caution in technology shadowed by optimism in industrial and healthcare stocks. The juxtaposition indicates a strategic reevaluation among traders, weighed by concerns over tech valuations and potential industrial growth scenarios.Moreover, the downturns in technology may hint at the start of a price correction following months of highs, while industrials seem to captivate investors looking for stable, incremental growth.Strategic RecommendationsFor Investors: This mixed market environment presents unique opportunities and risks. Here are some strategic steps to consider:Analyze and potentially rebalance your tech-heavy portfolios. Look beyond the immediate tech headwinds and seek opportunities within advancing industrial firms.Consider increasing exposure to sectors like healthcare, where consistent growth and innovation could drive portfolio performance.Keep an eye on industrial and healthcare stocks, leveraging their resilience as potential buffers against tech-driven market fluctuations.For more insights and updates, visit InvestingLive.com ? and stay informed on the dynamic shifts unfolding in today's market spaces. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be looking to capitalize on high personal approval ratings and a honeymoon period to consolidate power in the lower house.A Yomiuri report says she's mulling dissolving the lower house for a snap election in mid or mid-February. Takaichi became the first woman ever to lead Japan's dominant ruling party after winning leadership of the party in October and was sworn in as Prime Minister later that month. However she leads an LDP-Ishin minority after long-time coalition partner Komeito withdrew support due to Takaichi's hawkish views. Her ability to pass legislation is limited so she may be trying to be the first Japanese woman to win an election as Prime Minister, validating her position and consolidating power.She is polling well right now so this isn't a big surprise but she has an ambitious agenda and will need a stronger position in parliament to pass it. If dissolved, all 465 Lower House seats become vacant and a general election must be held within 40 days.A big factor in the election may be the yen, which struggled badly in the second half of 2025 and is flirting with a 9-month low today.The USD/JPY chart also flatters the yen's performance as it hit a record low recently against the euro and the worst levels since the 1990s against the pound.That weakness helps Japanese export competitiveness but it's a dangerous game to play with imported inflation. Japanese bond markets are also increasingly vulnerable. Long-term borrowing costs have spiked to the highest in decades.If Takaichi runs on increasing spending and wins the support to do that, we could see even more selling in Japanese bonds, something that risks a spiral and a crisis that could spread across borders.Watch Japan very closely this year. The number one risk I see in the foreign exchange market in 2026 is Japan. The yen has been struggling for the past six months and it’s close to a boiling point in Tokyo. There were some stronger warnings about FX intervention late in December. Japan is the most-indebted major economy in the world and the demographics are terrible. The US is leaving a lot of uncertainty around its alliance with Japan and China is eating its lunch in manufacturing. There is something of ‘boy who cried wolf’ situation around Japanese debt as people have been calling for a crisis for 20 years but Japanese borrowing costs are hitting 30 year highs. These things can escalate quickly and could turn into an international problem. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Important clarification: While markets are watching the US Supreme Court closely, any ruling referenced in this analysis remains potential, not scheduled. The Court does not pre-announce decisions. On a designated “decision day,” it may rule on any case currently before it. For background, see our related update here: https://investinglive.com/news/no-opinion-today-on-tariffs-from-the-us-supreme-court-20260109/Before we go into the expected scenarios and what you may consider trading, here's where you can watch it live when it starts!Supreme Court & Trump Tariffs: Watch LiveBefore it starts, here is a glimpse of the wisdom of the crowd and what the supreme court, in its view, will decide.Event Risk Window: 8:30 AM ET (NFP) and 10:00 AM ET (Supreme Court opinion release)Markets are heading into a rare convergence of macro, legal, and positioning risk, with traders navigating both the December US non-farm payrolls report and a potentially market-moving Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs.While payrolls normally dominate a Friday morning, attention today is clearly split. Many desks are already treating the jobs report as a secondary catalyst, with positioning light and volatility suppressed ahead of the 10:00 AM ET Supreme Court window.Will the court's (opinion) be supportive of Trump and tarrifs? What prediction markets are signalingOne of the clearest real-time sentiment gauges is the Polymarket contract asking whether the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump’s tariffs.As of this morning:Implied probability: ~25% that the Court upholds the tariffsMarket consensus: ~75% chance the tariffs are struck down or meaningfully limitedTrend: A sustained decline in odds since November, likely reflecting post-argument legal interpretation and positioning shiftsIn short, the “smart money” in prediction markets is leaning heavily toward a negative ruling for the tariffs.Why the Court's Rulling on Trump Tarrifs Matters for Today’s TradingBecause expectations are already skewed, the risk is asymmetric.Scenario 1: Tariffs Are Struck Down (Consensus Outcome)If the Court rules against the tariffs, markets are likely to interpret this as the removal of a long-standing inflationary and supply-chain risk.Equities: Supportive, particularly for consumer discretionary and import-sensitive namesBroad sentiment: Risk-on, but likely controlled rather than explosive due to expectations already being pricedUS Dollar: Potential downside pressure as tariff-driven inflation risk fadesIn this scenario, the jobs report may act only as a secondary volatility layer, unless payrolls significantly surprise.Scenario 2: Tariffs Are Upheld (Low-Probability Shock)This is where volatility could accelerate.Because markets are not positioned for this outcome, a ruling in favor of the tariffs could trigger rapid repricing:Equities: Sharp downside as cost pressures and policy uncertainty re-enter forecastsSector rotation: Relative strength in domestic steel and materials, weakness elsewhereDollar: Potential spike as inflation expectations and rate-path uncertainty reprice higherWhy NFP Still Matters, but Less Than UsualThe December payrolls consensus sits near +60K jobs with a 4.5% unemployment rate, and some analysts see upside risk. However, even a surprise print may struggle to dominate flows if traders are already bracing for the legal headline.As Adam Button noted earlier, markets appear “locked and loaded” for the Supreme Court release, with both US and Canadian jobs data potentially taking a back seat.Remember, the above are just for you to consider as you do your own research. And watch the price action, be careful of end of the week volatilty as market makers can stop hunt both bulls and bears, in case you're trading this.For deeper context on the legal timing and market implications, see our full breakdown here:? InvestingLive.com analysis: The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an opinion day: what’s the trade?https://investinglive.com/news/the-supreme-court-scheduled-friday-as-an-opinion-day-whats-the-trade-20260106/Bottom Line for TradersPrediction markets suggest the tariffs are expected to fall. That means calm is priced in, shock is not.From a decision-support perspective, today is less about prediction and more about reaction discipline. Watch the sequencing, respect volatility, and remember that when probabilities cluster this tightly, the minority outcome carries the most risk.We will also be watching the Nasdaq order flow and what it can tell us. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Canada December jobs statistics show:Employment change: 8.2 K vs -5.0K estimate, +53.6K priorUnemployment rate: 6.8% vs 6.6% estimate, 6.5% priorFull-time employment change: 50.2K vs -9.4k last monthPart-time employment change: -42.0K vs 63.0K last momthParticipation rate: 65.4% vs 65.1% last monthAvg hourly wages (permanent, YoY): 3.7% vs 4.0% last monthHighlights: Employment was essentially flat in December, rising by 8,200 (0.0%), after three strong monthly gains from September through November.The employment rate —the percentage of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—held steady at 60.9%.Full-time employment increased by 50,000 (+0.3%), while part-time employment fell by 42,000 (-1.1%), partially reversing gains from October and November.Over the past 12 months, part-time employment grew faster (+2.6%) than full-time employment (+0.7%).Private sector, public sector, and self-employment levels showed little change in December.The unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 6.8% in December, partially reversing declines from the prior two months.The number of unemployed increased to 1.6 million, up 73,000 (+4.9%) on the month.The participation rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65.4%, reflecting more people entering or re-entering the labor force.On a year-over-year basis, the participation rate was unchanged.Canada’s December labour market report showed mixed but stabilizing conditions. Employment edged up by 8.2K, outperforming expectations for a decline, but marking a sharp slowdown after strong gains in prior months. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8%, slightly above estimates and up from November, largely reflecting an increase in labour force participation rather than renewed job losses. Full-time employment rebounded strongly (+50.2K) after a decline in November, while part-time employment fell (-42.0K), partially unwinding earlier gains. The participation rate increased to 65.4%, indicating more people entering or re-entering the labour market, while the employment rate held steady at 60.9%. Wage growth moderated to 3.7% YoY, down from 4.0% previously. Overall, the data suggest the labour market cooled at year-end but remains relatively resilient, with improving full-time job creation offset by higher unemployment driven by increased labour supply.Summary: 2025 labour market trend (Canada)The Canadian labour market faced headwinds through most of 2025, with hiring slowing amid economic and trade uncertainty, particularly related to U.S. tariffs.From January to August, employment was essentially flat, the employment rate declined, and the unemployment rate rose to a multi-year high of 7.1%, driven mainly by weaker hiring rather than layoffs.Job finding rates deteriorated early in the year, while layoff rates remained near historical norms, indicating softer labour demand rather than widespread job losses.Job vacancies declined, and employers reported less difficulty filling positions, pointing to a cooling labour market.Youth were disproportionately affected, with youth unemployment and student joblessness reaching their highest levels in more than a decade (excluding pandemic years).Conditions improved late in the year, with employment rebounding from August to November and the employment rate recovering to 60.9%.The unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in November before edging higher to 6.8% in December, reflecting renewed labour force participation rather than renewed job losses.USDCAD moved to a new high after the report but backs off USDCAD initially pushed higher following the US and Canada jobs data, reaching a session high at 1.3888, but the rally quickly stalled and the pair has since rotated lower, trading near European session lows around 1.3866. The move higher carried price into a well-defined swing resistance zone between 1.3884 and 1.3896, with the high also falling just shy of the 100-day moving average at 1.3902. That confluence of resistance attracted sellers, capping the upside and triggering the subsequent pullback.On the downside, attention shifts to the 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.38465, with the 200-day moving average at 1.3837 just below. A move down toward—and especially through—this moving-average cluster would increase downside momentum and tilt the near-term bias more firmly in favor of sellers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was +64K (revised to +56K)October was -105K (revised to -173K)Unemployment rate 4.4% vs 4.5% expectedPrior unemployment rate 4.6%Unrounded unemployment 4.375% vs 4.564% priorParticipation rate 62.4% vs 62.5% priorU6 underemployment rate 8.4% vs 8.7% priorAverage hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expectedAverage hourly earnings +3.8% y/y vs +3.6% expectedAverage weekly hours 34.2 vs 34.3 expectedChange in private payrolls +37K vs +64K expectedChange in manufacturing payrolls -8K vs -5K expectedGovernment payrolls +27K vs -5K in NovemberThe market was pricing in a 12% chance of a January rate cut before the data and a 40% chance of a cut at the March meeting. For the year, there were 54.7 bps of easing priced in. The US 10-year yield was at 4.187% and USD/JPY was trading at 157.57.The US dollar is mostly lower on this as it reacts to the headline and the poor revisions. I would argue that the market was priced for an upside surprise given that most of the pre-jobs employment numbers were upbeat. The good news in the report is the fall in the unemployment rate, which -- without rounding fell nearly 0.2 pp, though a chunk of that was due to people dropping out of the labor force.In terms of markets, USD/JPY is quickly down to 157.44 in a broad USD selloff. S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and 10-year yields are unchanged from prior to the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior 1.307mBuilding permits 1.412m vs 1.350m expectedPrior 1.330mThis is still old data as government shutdown in October delayed many key economic reports. The last report was in September where it showed housing starts falling to the lowest level since May 2025. Today's data is the lowest since the Covid pandemic.There's been persistent housing market weakness due to high mortgage rates and softening labor market. Trump said in a Truth Social post yesterday that he has ordered $200 billion in MBS purchases to lower mortgage rates.Trump said that large-scale MBS buying would narrow mortgage spreads, push borrowing costs lower, and reduce monthly mortgage payments. He described the move as part of a broader strategy to reverse what he characterised as damage inflicted on housing affordability over the past several years. Housing and mortgage-related stocks rallied following Trump's post.This is just another example of this administration trying to do everything it can to keep the economy hot. This year we also have the mid-term elections and affordability is one of the key concerns for Americans, so you can see why Trump is focusing more on affordability. It could eventually be negative for the housing market if inflation reaccelerates and the Fed is forced to keep rates higher for longer or even raise them. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar is moving to the upside, with the Dollar Index climbing to its highest level in about a month and notable strength against the JPY (up 0.45%). The greenback is also higher vs the other major currency pairs with USD up 0.11% vs the EUR and 0.19% vs the GBP.The AUDUSD is trading down -0.33% (higher USD) as it reacts to:Weak Trade Data: Australia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to AUD 2.94 billion in November (well below the AUD 4.9 billion forecast). This was driven by a 2.9% drop in exports.China Inflation Miss: China, Australia's largest trading partner, released December CPI data showing only a 0.8% rise, missing the 0.9% forecast. This suggests weak demand from China, which is always a bearish signal for the Aussie.Cooling Inflation: Recent Australian CPI data showed a slowdown to 3.4%. While this is good for consumers, it has led markets to scale back expectations for a February interest rate hike from the RBA, removing a key support for the currency.Meanwhile, the NZDUSD is lower by -0.45%The NZD is currently trading near its lowest levels since early December, influenced by:Technical Breakdown: The NZD/USD pair recently broke through support levels (around 0.5750) and is currently facing "Strong Sell" technical signals as momentum shifts downward.RBNZ Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has signaled that its easing cycle likely ended in 2025, but Governor Anna Breman has pushed back against near-term rate hikes. This "on-hold" stance makes the NZD less attractive compared to a rebounding US Dollar.Geopolitical Jitters: Heightened tensions in South America and between China and Japan are weighing on the "Kiwi," which typically suffers when global risk appetite declines. Treasury yields are edging higher helping to support the USD with the:2 year yield at 3505, up 1.7 basis points.5 year yield 3.7499% +1.4 basis points 10 year yield 4.15%, +0.2 basis points 30 year yield 4.847%, -1.0 basis pointsIn commodities, Gold is trading up $13.77 or -0.31% that $4464 Silver is trading up $0.64 or 0.84% at $77.62. Oil is trading up $0.51 at $58.29Bitcoin is trading down $747 and $90,284U.S. stock futures are mostly higher early Friday as markets head into a potentially pivotal day, with investors watching two major risk events: a possible Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs and the December nonfarm payrolls report. The Supreme Court is scheduled to meet today, fueling speculation that a decision on the legality of several sweeping tariffs could come soon. While the court does not pre-announce rulings—and a decision could still be weeks or months away—the issue remains a meaningful overhang for markets given the potential implications for U.S. companies, global trade flows, and government tariff revenue.Attention is also firmly on the December jobs report due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Labor market data will be closely scrutinized for signs of cooling that could support the case for further interest-rate cuts later this year. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are looking for job growth of roughly 60,000 in December, with the unemployment rate expected to tick lower to 4.5%. Any meaningful deviation from expectations could spark volatility across rates, equities, and FX.Looking at the major indices, the futures are implyingDow industrial average rose 2.11 pointsS&P index is up 7.04 pointNASDAQ index is up 40 points This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

It's the first 'big day' of the year in a year that feels much longer than 9-days already.The non-farm payrolls report is due at the bottom of the hour along with the Canadian jobs report. Before the report is released, read Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fogThe consensus is 60K jobs with a 4.5% unemployment rate. The jobs report is always a roll of the dice but the preview outlines why I think risks are skewed towards a higher number.The Canadian number is always volatile and the prior was +53.6K so there's likely to be a pullback. The consensus is -5K.Both of those events may only see a limited market reaction as traders hold their breath for 10 am ET, when the Supreme Court might release its tariff decision.See:The Supreme Court scheduled Friday as an 'opinion day'. What's the tradeHow the White House will pivot if the Supreme Court strikes down current tariffs This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.