The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The Corporate Service Price Index (CSPI) released by the Bank of Japan measures the prices of services traded among companies. It presents price developments that reflect most sensitively the supply and demand conditions in the services market. It is also considered as an indicator for inflationary pressures.---At the margin, yen bullish. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan inflation data for Match 2026. Headline rate 1.5% y/y (prior 1.3%)Core CPI (Ex-Food) 1.8% y/y (vs. expected 1.8%, prior 1.6%) Core-core CPI (Ex-Food & Energy) 2.4% y/y (prior 2.5%), slowest rise since December 2024I'll post separately on details and BOJ/yen implications. -A few weeks ago we had March Tokyo CPI:Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intact This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump announces Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended three weeks (earlier news on this here) after Oval Office talks. Wednesday was a deadly day in Lebanon with five killed including a journalist. This despite the April 16 truce. SummaryCeasefire between Lebanon and Israel extended by three weeks following a White House meeting hosted by TrumpLebanese and Israeli ambassadors to Washington attended the Oval Office talks alongside senior US officials including Vance, Rubio and HuckabeeWednesday was Lebanon's deadliest day since the ceasefire took effect on April 16, with five people killed including journalist Amal KhalilHezbollah says it wants the truce to continue but only on the basis of full Israeli compliance, including halting strikes and village demolitionsIsrael continues to occupy a belt of southern Lebanon extending 5 to 10 kilometres into the countryNearly 2,500 people have been killed in Lebanon since hostilities reignited on March 2 when Hezbollah opened fire in support of IranLebanon's longer-term agenda includes pushing for Israeli withdrawal, return of Lebanese detainees and land border delineationIsrael's stated objectives include dismantlement of Hezbollah and conditions for a permanent peace dealThe ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel has been extended by three weeks following US-facilitated talks at the White House, President Donald Trump announced on Thursday. The extension averts a collapse of the truce that had been due to expire on Sunday, though conditions on the ground remain tense and the underlying disputes between the two sides are far from resolved.Trump hosted the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington in the Oval Office, joined by Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and senior US envoys to both countries. The high-level US representation signals Washington's continued investment in stabilising the Lebanon front. Trump said the meeting went well and indicated he looked forward to hosting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Lebanese President Aoun in Washington in the near future.The announcement came on Lebanon's deadliest day since the ceasefire took effect on April 16. Israeli strikes on Wednesday killed five people including journalist Amal Khalil of Al-Akhbar newspaper. Hezbollah confirmed it carried out four operations in southern Lebanon in response, underlining the extent to which the truce remains a fragile and contested arrangement rather than a clean cessation of hostilities.Hezbollah said it supported the ceasefire continuing, but only on the basis of full Israeli compliance -- defined as halting strikes, assassinations and the demolition of villages in the south. Israel continues to occupy a self-declared buffer zone extending 5 to 10 kilometres inside Lebanese territory, which it says is necessary to shield northern Israel from attack.Lebanon's longer-term agenda includes pushing for a full Israeli withdrawal, the return of Lebanese detainees and formal land border delineation. Israel's stated objectives -- the dismantlement of Hezbollah and conditions for a permanent peace deal -- remain fundamentally at odds with those ambitions. Nearly 2,500 people have been killed in Lebanon since hostilities reignited on March 2 when Hezbollah opened fire in support of Iran.---A three-week extension rather than a durable settlement keeps geopolitical risk premium in regional markets elevated. The ceasefire remains brittle, with continued Israeli strikes and Hezbollah operations in southern Lebanon underscoring the gap between a temporary truce and a lasting resolution. For energy markets, any deterioration in the Lebanon front that draws in broader regional actors would compound existing supply-side pressures already stemming from the Iran conflict. The limited, incremental nature of the diplomatic progress nevertheless offers some comfort to investors. More certainty and clarity on the trajectory of the wider Middle East situation would be welcome, though. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump threatens fresh UK tariffs unless London drops its 2% digital services tax on large US tech platforms. The levy raises £800m annually and has survived prior UK-US trade talks.Trump has threatened tariffs on the UK unless it scraps its Digital Services TaxThe DST is a 2% levy on revenues from large digital platforms operating in the UK, raising around £800 million annuallyThe tax applies to companies with UK revenues above £25 million or global revenues above £500 millionTrump frames the DST as discriminatory against US tech firms, though HMRC data shows around 37% of liable companies are not US-headquarteredThe dispute is not new, Trump signed an executive order investigating DSTs across six countries in February 2025The DST survived the UK-US trade deal struck in May 2025, with both sides agreeing to pursue a separate digital trade deal insteadTrump's latest threat coincides with a planned state visit to the UK, where the Starmer government is seeking a broader technology partnershipUK public opinion polls strongly against concessions to Big Tech, with two-thirds of Britons backing enforcement of the taxPresident Donald Trump has renewed his threat to impose tariffs on the United Kingdom unless London agrees to scrap its Digital Services Tax, reigniting one of the more persistent flashpoints in UK-US trade relations and putting the Starmer government in a politically awkward position ahead of a planned Trump state visit.The UK's DST, sometimes dubbed the Google Tax, is a 2% levy on revenues generated from UK users by large digital platforms including search engines, social media networks and online marketplaces. It applies to companies with UK revenues above £25 million or global revenues exceeding £500 million, and has raised significantly more than initially forecast since its introduction in April 2020, now generating around £800 million annually for the Treasury.Washington's objection is that the tax disproportionately targets American technology companies, with Trump describing such levies as discriminatory and tantamount to a trade barrier. The US tech sector has enthusiastically backed that framing. However, HMRC data obtained under Freedom of Information laws tells a more nuanced story, around 37% of companies assessed as liable for the DST are not headquartered in the United States, directly undermining the White House's core argument.This is not the first time the issue has come to a head. Trump signed an executive order in February 2025 directing the US Trade Representative to investigate potential tariff retaliation against six countries maintaining DSTs, including the UK, France, Italy, Canada, Spain and Turkey. When a limited UK-US trade deal was announced in May 2025, the DST was notably left intact, with both sides agreeing instead to begin work on a separate digital trade agreement. That outcome was presented by Downing Street as a win, though Prime Minister Starmer was almost immediately pressed on whether the tax remained entirely off the table — and declined to give an unequivocal guarantee.The timing of Trump's latest broadside is pointed. It arrives ahead of a state visit during which the UK government is hoping to secure a broader technology partnership with the US. That diplomatic context gives Washington additional leverage, and raises the question of how much the Starmer government is willing to concede in pursuit of warmer bilateral ties. Surrendering the DST at a time of acute pressure on public finances, with borrowing costs near multi-decade highs and departmental spending being cut, would be a significant fiscal and political sacrifice.UK public opinion offers the government little room to manoeuvre on this front. Polling conducted in August 2025 found two-thirds of Britons want the UK to enforce its digital tax laws even if doing so strains relations with the Trump administration, with support rising to nearly 80% among Labour voters. Critics argue that backing down would set a damaging precedent, signalling to multinationals that sustained political pressure from Washington is sufficient to rewrite the UK's tax rules.For now, the DST remains on the books. But with Trump escalating his rhetoric and a state visit providing a natural deadline for some form of accommodation, the pressure on London to offer concessions, whether through a rate reduction, a narrowing of scope, or further commitments on the digital trade deal, looks set to intensify in the weeks ahead.---A forced concession on the DST would crystallise a meaningful fiscal hole for the UK at an already difficult moment for public finances, with borrowing costs elevated and departmental budgets under pressure. For markets, the broader signal is one of continued US willingness to use tariff threats as leverage against allied trade partners on behalf of American Big Tech, a dynamic that complicates UK-US trade negotiations and adds uncertainty to any prospective digital trade deal. Sterling could face modest headwinds if the dispute escalates, while US technology stocks may see a marginal tailwind on the expectation that DST revenues targeting their UK operations come under threat. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Trump says the Israel - Lebanon ceasefire will be extended by three weeks.Social media post. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

National inflation data from Japan for March 2026 is due. Tokyo's March consumer price data, released three weeks ago, offers a useful early read on the national figures due today. Headline inflation in the capital came in at 1.4% year-on-year, easing from 1.5% in February and touching its softest level since March 2022. The core reading, stripping out fresh food, slipped to 1.7%, coming in below market expectations and sitting under the Bank of Japan's 2% target for a second straight month.A broader underlying measure that excludes both fresh food and energy also retreated, falling to 2.3% from 2.5% the month prior. While that reading remains above the BOJ's target, the step down points to a loss of momentum in price pressures more broadly, in part reflecting the continued dampening effect of government support measures on energy and food costs.Those subsidies have been doing meaningful work in recent months, helping to contain headline inflation even as a persistently weak yen continues to push up the cost of imports. The net effect has been to keep reported price growth softer than the underlying pipeline pressures might otherwise suggest.The cooling trend is, however, widely expected to be short-lived. Renewed upward pressure on energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict, combined with ongoing yen weakness, is seen reintroducing inflation momentum in the coming months. Strengthening wage dynamics are also expected to provide a more durable underpinning for price growth over the medium term, keeping the BOJ's rate-hike calculus firmly in play.The Bank of Japan will be keenly eyeing this data. At next week's policy meeting, as I posted earlier:the board is likely to revise its inflation projections sharply higher, with rising costs for oil-related raw materials already prompting some firms to consider further price increases. Sources said to be familiar with the BOJ's thinking suggest the board may also tweak its policy guidance language, adjusting the current pledge to raise rates "in accordance with economic and price improvements" to better signal its readiness to act flexibly in the face of war-related inflation risks. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

BOJ set to hold at 0.75% on 27-28 April but signal June hike readiness. Growth forecasts to be cut, inflation revised up sharply as Iran war energy shock fans second-round price risks.SummaryBOJ widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.75% at the April 27-28 meetingBoard set to cut its fiscal 2026 growth forecast as surging fuel costs weigh on corporate profitsInflation forecasts to be revised sharply higher as oil-related input costs feed throughBOJ to retain hawkish guidance and stress resolve to continue lifting ratesJune or July rate hike to 1.0% the consensus among economists; nearly two-thirds of Reuters poll respondents back an end-June moveHawks on the board flagging second-round inflation risks as firms increasingly pass on higher costsGovernor Ueda to brief media at 0630 GMT Tuesday following the meetingClosure of the Strait of Hormuz treated as a risk scenario for now, not the BOJ's baselineThe Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75% when its policy board meets on April 27 and 28, but the meeting is shaping up to be anything but routine. With the Iran war driving a significant energy shock and inflation running above the BOJ's 2% target for close to four years, policymakers are expected to use the gathering to lay the groundwork for a rate hike as early as June.Markets have largely priced out any chance of an increase at next week's meeting itself, shifting their attention instead to the BOJ's quarterly outlook report and the post-meeting press conference from Governor Kazuo Ueda, due at 0630 GMT Tuesday. Both are expected to carry a notably hawkish tone.The prevailing view is that the BOJ will stand pat this time but use its communications to keep a June or July move firmly on the table. The key watch point will be the board's updated price forecasts, which are seen as the clearest signal of just how concerned policymakers have become about the inflation outlook.The quarterly report is set to contain two notable revisions. First, the BOJ is expected to cut its growth forecast for fiscal 2026, which began in April, reflecting the drag on corporate profits from surging fuel costs and the disruption flowing from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Second, and more significantly for rate expectations, the board is likely to revise its inflation projections sharply higher, with rising costs for oil-related raw materials already prompting some firms to consider further price increases.Sources said to be familiar with the BOJ's thinking suggest the board may also tweak its policy guidance language, adjusting the current pledge to raise rates "in accordance with economic and price improvements" to better signal its readiness to act flexibly in the face of war-related inflation risks.A key concern gaining traction within the institution is the risk of second-round effects. While most board members do not yet see a sharp wage-inflation spiral as the base case, hawkish voices have grown louder in calling for vigilance. The fear is that if firms continue to pass higher energy and input costs through to consumers, and if workers begin to demand compensating wage increases in response, the BOJ could find itself well behind the curve and forced into more aggressive tightening down the track.Japan's particular vulnerability to the current shock is worth noting. The country is heavily reliant on oil imports, and the disruption to Strait of Hormuz shipping has hit supply chains and energy costs hard. A stubbornly weak yen has compounded the pressure, adding to import costs and keeping underlying inflation elevated even before the latest round of energy-driven price rises.The BOJ's current baseline, set in January, projected 1.0% growth in fiscal 2026 slowing to 0.8% in 2027, with core inflation reaching 1.9% and 2.0% respectively. Those numbers are now looking dated. Next week's report will also include fiscal 2028 forecasts for the first time, giving markets a fresh read on the BOJ's longer-run thinking. With roughly two-thirds of economists in a recent Reuters poll expecting the policy rate to reach 1.0% by end-June, the direction of travel is clear. The question is simply one of timing and how forcefully Ueda chooses to signal it.For yen and JGB markets, a hawkish hold from the BOJ next week would reinforce the case for further yen strength and upward pressure on the short end of the Japanese yield curve. With nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed by Reuters pencilling in a rate rise to 1.0% by end-June, any dovish surprise would likely be punished swiftly. The broader risk for global markets is that a BOJ tightening cycle running alongside a war-driven energy shock adds a further macro tightening impulse to an already fragile international growth backdrop. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US initial jobless claims 214K vs 210K expectedUS April S&P Global services index 51.3 vs 50.3 expected"Don't rush me" Trump says when asked about IranTrump says Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader isTrump says he orders attack on any boat placing mines in Strait of HormuzTrump says he's not anxious to end the war, he has all the time in the worldIran supreme leader says enemies have campaign to target national unityIran deploys fresh mines in the Strait of Hormuz - reportSNB vice chair: We have a greater willingness to intervene in the FX marketIran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf resigns from negotiations - Israel report (denied)Canada March PPI +2.4% m/m vs +1.9% expectedPakistani officials blame blockade, not Iran divisions, for stalled talksMarkets:Gold down $47 to $4690US 10-year yields up 3.1 bps to 4.325%S&P 500 down 30 points, or 0.4%USD leads, NZD lagsWTI crude oil up $4.00 to $96.96In terms of the war, no one really knows what is going on. Trump keeps saying he's waiting for a response from Iran on negotiating but Iran keeps saying they won't negotiate until the blockade of Iran is lifted. Meanwhile, there is a real war of words about unity as Trump and a report from Israel today highlighted turmoil but all of Iran's top leaders said they were united. So it's not clear if that's some kind of psyop but the fact that Trump talks about it non-stop makes me suspicious that not all is as it appears.The spikes to the extremes of the day (highs in oil, lows in stocks) came after the Israel report that Iran's parliamentary chief had quit negotiations. There was also a brief report at the same time about Iran activating air defences and an Israeli strike but that was quickly halted and it was instead said to be a test of systems. There was a recovery from there but not completely. As for the economy, the comments from corporates have been mostly upbeat and the manufacturing side of the S&P Global PMI was particularly strong.In terms of markets, oil rose for the third day with WTI up $4.00 to $96.96 and now the 'strait is open' rally has been completely wiped out. Stocks fell on the day but it was a real mixed bag as there were some major winners and losers on earnings divergences. After hours, shares of INTC spiked higher as the state-backed chipmaker saw strong revenues. The short squeeze on Avis ended in dramatic fashion with a crash lower in shares.In FX, the euro continues to bleed lower and in bonds, Treasury yields are chopping higher, both signs of war angst. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump's explicit warning that Americans should brace for higher fuel costs carries meaningful inflationary implications. Energy prices feeding through to transport, logistics and consumer goods risk embedding a fresh layer of inflation at the margin, complicating the Fed's rate path and pressuring household real incomes. The broader concern for markets is that a prolonged Hormuz blockade keeps oil supply constrained well beyond initial expectations, adding a persistent rather than transitory energy shock to an already uncertain macro backdrop. SummaryTrump explicitly flagged higher gas prices for Americans, at least in the near termU.S. claims approximately 75% of designated targets have been struck in IranA two-week hiatus may have allowed Iran to partially restock its capabilitiesBlockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place; Trump says U.S. has "total control"Iran described as being "in turmoil" but not conducting normal commerce due to blockadeTrump says a deal could be struck "right now" but wants any agreement to be lastingStrait will reopen only upon a deal or unspecified alternative outcomePresident Donald Trump on Thursday signalled that American consumers should brace for higher fuel costs, warning that gas prices would rise "for a little while" as the United States maintains its military campaign against Iran and its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.The remarks are significant for markets. With the Hormuz strait handling a substantial share of global oil flows, any sustained disruption to shipping adds direct upward pressure to crude prices. That pressure feeds through the supply chain relatively quickly, lifting transport, logistics and consumer goods costs and threatening to embed a new inflationary impulse at the margin. For a Fed already navigating an uncertain rate environment, a war-driven energy shock that proves longer-lasting than anticipated risks complicating any near-term pivot toward easing.See this from earlier:Fed rate cuts pushed to late 2026 as Middle East war fuels inflation surgeOn the military situation, Trump claimed the U.S. had struck approximately 75% of its intended targets inside Iran, while cautioning that a two-week pause in operations may have allowed Tehran to replenish some of its capabilities. "We'll knock that down," Trump said, in characteristically blunt terms. Iran, he added, was not conducting normal business activity as a result of the blockade, and was currently in a state of internal turmoil.Despite the confident tone, the broader picture suggests a conflict that is proving more protracted and resistant to resolution than initially anticipated. What was widely expected to be a short, sharp "excursion" has stretched considerably, with the humanitarian and economic costs mounting. Iran's partial reload during the ceasefire window underscores the challenge of achieving decisive outcomes through air power alone, raising questions about how the endgame unfolds.Trump said dialogue with Iranian counterparts was ongoing, and suggested a deal could be reached immediately if the political will existed. His stated preference is for an agreement he described as "everlasting." However, with Tehran in apparent disarray and the blockade firmly in place, the conditions for a durable settlement remain elusive. The Strait, Trump confirmed, would only reopen upon a formal agreement or some other unspecified development, leaving global energy markets exposed to continued supply-side uncertainty for the foreseeable future. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

"Don't rush me," President Trump says when asked about Iran. "So were in Vietnam for 18 years. Iraq, many, many years....I've been doing this for...six weeks."For what it's worth, this is week nine.Trump says he has been speaking with Iran and they want a dealWe got rid of the Iranian leadership.. and the new leadership is fighting among themselvesNo one is left among Iran's leaders to take over the leadershipWe've been speaking but they're in turmoilWant a deal to be everlastingI could make a deal right nowUS hit about 75% of military targetsWill finish up rest of targets if no dealIran may have reloaded during the hiatusIf there's no deal with Iran, we'll "finish it up" militarilyIf Iran doesn't move oil, infrastructure will explodeIran has "a matter of days" until that takes placeShips are locked and loaded and ready to goIran's problem is they're very disorganized right nowAmericans should expect to pay more for gasoline for "a little while"Repeats that he thought oil would hit $200 per barrelDoesn't think the Iran conflict will be very longIran is delaying because they don't know who they're talking toSays he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon against IranMy thinking on all this turmoil talk is that he's overdoing it and it makes me think it's not true. The 'finish it up' line is interesting, as it also indicates a short timeline. Of course, all of that presumes you can get the Strait back open. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I have no idea whether the US is lying about Iran's negotiators fracturing or if Iran is lying. Either way, it's not the kind of thing that should be happening on the way to peace.Here's the message from the Supreme Leader, who is said to have lost a leg and had his face burned. The NYT reports today that he's alert, functioning and passing messages. This might be one of those messages as it says:"As a result of the remarkable unity that has formed among our compatriots, a fracture has appeared in the enemy. By practically giving thanks for this blessing, [our] cohesion will become greater and more steel-like, and the enemies will become more debased and humiliated. The enemy's media operations, by targeting the minds and psyches of the people, aim to damage national unity and security; let us not, through our negligence, allow this sinister intention to be realized."WTI crude oil is up $3.44 to $96.40. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Axios is out with a report saying that Iran has deployed more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, citing "a US official and a source with knowledge of the issue."That shines some light on Trump's earlier post on Truth Social that said:I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMPOil prices rose for the third consecutive day and have erased the drop on the "Hormuz is open" message from Iran's foreign minister. That optimism has faded as the US refused to unblock the Strait and so Iran resumed its blockade.The chart itself now looks like it's carving out the second shoulder in a head-and-shoulders pattern. If so, that would ultimately be good news and would point to a cratering of oil prices. That said, Vitol yesterday estimated that 600-700 million barrels of oil had already been lost in this conflict and it will ultimately take 1 billion barrels out because of slow restarts, even if the war ended soon.Even with Iran and the rest of OPEC running at full speed, it would take a year or two to get inventories back to where they were pre-war. With that, it's hard for me to see oil completing this pattern and falling to $60-65.So the risk is that we run back above $100 as the physical market tightens. Iran doesn't appear to be backing down at the moment. Today, a NYT report said that Mojtaba Khamenei was still alive and functioning, though he likely lost a leg and his face was burned. Knowing that, you have to imagine that he's not exactly in the mood for compromise.Combined with the mines report and the rhetoric out of Israel and this ceasefire is much more vulnerable that equity markets would have you believe. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

I'm not sure if this is reflective of Trump doing his usual raging at the media or a sign that he's increasingly hawkish. The market hasn't taken it badly.For those people, fewer in number now than ever before, that are reading The Failing New York Times, or watching Fake News CNN, that think that I am “anxious” to end the War (if you would even call it that!) with Iran, please be advised that I am possibly the least pressured person ever to be in this position. I have all the time in the World, but Iran doesn’t — The clock is ticking! The reason some of the Media is doing so poorly with Subscribers and Viewers is because they no longer have credibility. Iran’s Navy is lying at the bottom of the Sea, their Air Force is demolished, their Anti Aircraft and Radar Weaponry is gone, their leaders are no longer with us, the Blockade is airtight and strong and, from there, it only gets worse — Time is not on their side! A Deal will only be made when it’s appropriate and good for the United States of America, our Allies and, in fact, the rest of the World. President DONALD J. TRUMPThe S&P 500 is down 32 points, or 0.45%.Also, here is a stock chart of the 'failing' New York Times: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We have said very clearly that, given the situation in the Middle East, we are ready to interveneWe have a greater willingness to interveneWe have observed since the start of the conflict that the franc has lost valueThere is no market reaction to this headline, as the Swiss isn't under any particular pressure. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Risk trades are diving on a report from N12 about Ghalibaf leaving the negotiating team. N12 is the digital news brand of Keshet 12, an Israeli free-to-air television channelIf anyone in the market was still holding out hope for a diplomatic off-ramp in the Middle East, it might be time to worry.We just got a pair of headlines out of Iran that paint a very stark picture of where things are heading, and it’s not toward de-escalation.First, Iranian President Pezeshkian took to X to completely torpedo the idea that there are any reformist voices left in the room. Remember, Pezeshkian was billed as the "moderate" when he took office. Today? He’s explicitly saying there are no moderates or radicals left—just "complete obedience to the Supreme Leader."He was thought to be a pragmatist but that doesn't seem to be the thinking now. He wrote:In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; we are all "Iranian" and "revolutionary," and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions. One God, one nation, one leader, and one path; that path being the path to the victory of our dear Iran, more precious than life.The real kicker is the second headline.Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is reportedly resigning from the negotiating team after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intervened.Now, I'd wait for confirmation from Iran or US media before diving full into this headline but taken together these two reports indicate:The pragmatists have left the building. Ghalibaf is a conservative, but he's a pragmatic one who understands the domestic economic toll of endless conflict. If he's getting pushed out of negotiations by the IRGC, it means the hardliners and the military wing are now driving the bus.You don't hand the keys to the Revolutionary Guards if you're looking to cut a deal. You do it when you are bracing for impact and consolidating power. They are closing ranks, demanding absolute ideological unity, and sidelining politicians in favor of generals. That means war is more likely.Expect crude to catch a bid on this as the market digests the reality that the IRGC is now fully dictating terms. The S&P 500 is quickly down 0.7%. Yesterday I wrote: The foundations of this stock market rally are iffy.Update: This is from a journalist in Iran, who says the news is false:At one point there was also a report that Israel had launched an attack on Iran but that has been debunked. Air defenses were activated in Tehran but that's now said to have been a test.Foreign Minsiter Araghchi also posted:The failure of Israel's terrorist killings is reflected in how Iran's state institutions continue to act with unity, purpose, and discipline. The battlefield and diplomacy are fully coordinated fronts in the same war. Iranians are all united, more than ever before.It's hard to say what's happening here.Ghalibaf himself wrote:In Iran, there are no radicals or moderates; we are all "Iranian" and "revolutionary," and with the iron unity of the nation and government, with complete obedience to the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, we will make the aggressor criminal regret his actions. One God, one leader, one nation, and one path; that path being the path to victory for Iran, dearer than life. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

We are into the heart of earnings season and a few companies reported today that are solid bellwethers for the economy. There are positive signs of momentum so I wanted to highlight a few:Matt Flannery, President & CEO, United RentalsOn overall demand and the year ahead: "The momentum we're carrying into our busy season, along with our customers' feedback for their business, supports our expectations that this will be another record year""Our construction end markets saw strong growth led by nonresidential construction and infrastructure. And on the industrial side, power and mining and minerals were notable standouts, with power continuing to post double-digit growth"The company boosted its guidance and shares are up 23%. Total revenue is now expected in the range of $16.9 billion to $17.4 billion, an increase of $100 million versus our initial guidance.Robert Isom, CEO, American AirlinesOn overall demand: "Demand for American's product continues to grow, and during the quarter, we recorded the 9 highest revenue intake weeks in our history"Devon May, CFO, American AirlinesOn Q2 demand: "Demand across all cabins and entities remains robust. We expect domestic unit revenue to grow more than 10% in the second quarter"Nat Pieper, Chief Commercial Officer, American AirlinesOn a structural shift in consumer spending: "Is there a long-term resetting in terms of consumer spending hierarchy. There's a lot -- we all remember revenge travel from COVID and people got tired of buying TVs and wanted to go see the world. And I think some of that has continued and extended"Note that American Airlines is more consumer focused and less focused on businesses and affluent customers than United or Delta so it's a sign that the middle class is doing well. Shares are up 5% on a tape that otherwise has airlines lower. The comments on demand highlight that it's holding up (so far) despite big fare hikes due to the Iran war. I also think the shift in consumer spending is secular and -- in part -- driven by retiring baby boomers.Bob Jordan, President & CEO, Southwest AirlinesOn demand breadth: "Demand remained strong across geographies, customer segments and both business and leisure""There is significant economic and geopolitical uncertainty, and it's not possible to know with confidence all the ways the industry could be inactive""You cannot predict at what point consumers and demand is going to be -- you're going to begin to see demand destruction based on the pricing environment"Andrew Watterson, COO, Southwest AirlinesOn broad-based demand strength: "We are seeing extraordinarily strong fares and strong demand across the entire network across all customer segments across different travel types"The tone from Southwest was a bit more cautious than American going in (American is seen as a perpetual laggard) and shares are down 2.5%Steve Squeri, Chairman & CEO, American ExpressOn overall spending momentum: "Card Member spending grew 10% on a reported basis, and this is the highest quarterly growth in 3 years, driven by strong growth across both Goods & Services and T&E"Christophe Le Caillec, CFO, American ExpressOn broad-based spending: "Retail spending kept up its momentum, up 11% FX adjusted, and spending at luxury retail merchants was up 18%, reflecting the continued strength of our premium customer base""We did see airline growth softened in the last few weeks of March and into April, driven by travel disruptions from the Middle East conflict""If you had asked me a few years ago, where are the balances going to come from? Where are the account is going to come from? I would not have told you that I'm confident it's going to come from the younger cohorts. And -- but that's what we're seeing""Credit performance remains very strong and stable. Delinquency rates were flat to last quarter while write-off rates were slightly down"There are definitely some K-shaped vibes here and maybe the airlines aren't telling us something about forward demand. Overall, AXP skews wealthy so it's not the best barometer but this looks good and that's exactly what we saw in Monday's US retail sales report. Shares of AXP are down 4.4% today after opening flat.Maryclare Kenney, Chief Commercial Officer, CSXOn end-market headwinds in housing and autos: "A lot of our business is tied to housing and automotive, and those markets have been pretty bleak... auto production still right now is forecast to be down about 2% this year""When you think about the housing side, it's affordability issue. Interest rates are still high, and they've bounced back up a little bit after everything that's happened in the Middle East"Haviv Ilan, CEO, Texas InstrumentsOn the broader semi recovery: "The overall semiconductor market recovery is continuing and we remain well positioned with inventory and capacity that allows us to support our customers with competitive lead times through the cycle"On breadth of the industrial rebound: "Industrial increased more than 30% year-on-year and was up more than 20% sequentially, growing broadly across all sectors and regions"On industrial demand signals: "It's now 5 or 6 months of continued growth in industrial... It's the first quarter where we saw the broad market, basically the tail starting to wake up again after a long hibernation period"On China auto softness vs rest of world: "China was — the overall quarter was flat sequentially. But China was down. The rest of the world was up"Shares of TXN are up 20% on the print.Overall, we're starting to see some weakness creep into equities with the S&P 500 now down 0.3%. Yesterday I wrote this and I think it's worth a read: The foundations of this stock market rally are iffy This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 just hit a fresh record high. Futures had been down more than 50 points at one time but the S&P 500 is now up 5 points to 7143 and the Nasdaq is close to unchanged. In Europe, it's been more of a struggle as oil prices stay elevated (Brent up $1.36 today to $103.28) A look at the daily closes showsGerman DAX (DEU40): -0.1% France's CAC 40 (CAC40): +1.0% UK's FTSE 100 (UKX): -0.1% Spain's IBEX 35 (IBC): -0.65% Italy's FTSE MIB (FTMIB): +0.4%Futures were wearing the Tesla hangover early — that stock is down around 3% after Musk warned of $25 billion in capex and negative free cash flow for the rest of the year. That's what happens when you report a beat and then spend the call telling everyone the robotaxi rollout is going slower than the spending. The dip-buyers showed up on cue once again and dragged the S&P back to a fresh all-time high, because of course they did.American Express had a genuinely strong print — revenue up 11% to $18.9 billion, EPS of $4.28, and guidance reaffirmed. The affluent consumer is still swiping but shares are down 3.8% . Another big mover is IBM, which is down 9.4% after earnings.On the upside, United Rentals is up 22.7% after the company reported adjusted EPS of $9.71 (beating consensus estimates of ~$8.95) and total revenue of $3.985 billion (beating expectations of ~$3.87 billion). Management also boosted guidance and authorized a $5 billion buyback.United Rentals is often viewed as a bellwether for the industrial and construction sectors because their business relies on the activity levels of general contractors, industrial firms, and commercial developers.After the close, we will hear from Intel, SAP, Newmont and Baker Hughes. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market presents a striking contrast as technology struggles while consumer sectors show relative strength. The market heatmap reveals a predominantly negative trend in the technology sector, contrasted by gains in consumer cyclical and consumer defensive industries.? Technology: A notable downturn characterizes the technology sector, with major players like Microsoft (MSFT) dropping 3.31% and Oracle (ORCL) down 5.02%. However, chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) bucks the trend with a 0.84% rise, hinting at targeted investor interest within the semiconductor space.? Financials: A mixed performance is evident here, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) adding 0.53% to its value, whereas Visa (V) experiences a decline of 1.16%. Encouragingly, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) sees a positive gain of 1.14%, reflecting some optimism within diversified financials.?️ Consumer Cyclical & Defensive: This sector shines, with Walmart (WMT) rising 1.10% and Coca-Cola (KO) up 2.16%. Such results suggest a flight to stability amidst broader market turbulence.Market Mood and TrendsOverall market sentiment appears mixed, characterized by pessimism in tech and optimism in consumer staples. Investors may be hedging against technology volatility by pivoting towards historically stable sectors like consumer goods. This cautious optimism in consumer-related stocks might reflect investor confidence in steady demand for essentials, even amidst economic uncertainty.Strategic RecommendationsGiven today's sector analysis, traders and investors should consider a diversified approach to safeguard portfolios. Here are some suggestions:Consider increasing exposure to consumer defensive sectors, where brands displaying resilience offer potential stability.Stay cautious with technology investments particularly within software and infrastructure segments, yet remain watchful for entry points in resilient semiconductor stocks like AMD.Monitor financial institutions for mixed signals, potentially uncovering undervalued opportunities in diversified entities.As always, it's prudent to follow real-time data and news updates for shifts in these dynamics. For comprehensive market analytics and insights, visit InvestingLive.com for the latest updates and strategic advice. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior was 49.8Manufacturing 54.0 vs 52.5 expected - -highest since May 2022Prior manufacturing 52.4Composite 52.0 vs 50.5 expectedComposite prior was 51.4Employment basically flat for a second monthInput cost inflation at an 11-month highOutput prices rising at the fastest pace since July 2022This is a two-month high in services and a nice surprise but the real headline number is on manufacturing, which is the best in almost four years. The US manufacturing sector has largely been in something of a recession for all of that time and this is a good signal that it's turning the corner, despite higher energy prices. However there is some fine print: a big chunk of that new orders surge is companies panic-buying ahead of war-related shortages and price hikes. Unfortunately, the services side — which is what actually drives the US economy — barely budged off the floor and new business growth was the slowest in two years. The more important story is on prices. Output prices jumped the most since mid-2022 and input costs are running at an 11-month high, with supply chains snarling up in a way we haven't seen since the post-pandemic mess. Survey chief economist Chirs Williamson sums up the Fed's problem nicely:"Balancing the risks of inflation lifting sharply higher against the underlying weakness of economic growth presents policymakers at the Fed with a growing dilemma. However, it will likely be increasingly hard to make a case for rate cuts if inflation follows the path signalled by the PMI while the economy continues to eke out only modest growth."The survey says it's consistent with "growth in excess of 1%" which isn't exactly blockbuster but it's still growth but is also coming with spiking prices. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.