The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Yen weakened as the dollar opened the first full week of the new year on a firm footingUSD/JPY pushed back toward the upper end of recent rangesRate differentials continue to weigh on the Japanese currencyMarkets price more Fed cuts than policymakers currently signalUS data this week likely to help shape near-term FX directionThe Japanese yen underperformed at the start of the first full trading week of the year, slipping back toward recent lows as the US dollar opened on a firm footing across major currency pairs. Dollar strength was evident against the euro and sterling, but the move in USD/JPY was particularly notable, with the pair edging back toward the upper end of its recent range as yield differentials continued to favour the greenback.The dollar rose to around ¥156.90 ... and above 157.00 as I update .... extending gains against the yen as markets maintained a cautious stance on the near-term outlook for Japanese monetary policy. While the Bank of Japan has taken incremental steps toward policy normalisation, investors remain unconvinced that the pace of tightening will be sufficient to materially support the currency in the short term, particularly against a still-resilient US economy and potential Fed pause.Dollar strength elsewhere was more modest. The euro slipped toward $1.1705, its weakest level in more than three weeks, while sterling edged lower to around $1.3440. Overall currency moves were contained, though risk sentiment remained sensitive to geopolitical developments following the United States’ high-profile operation in Venezuela over the weekend.For yen traders, however, macro fundamentals remained, and will remain, the dominant driver. Markets continue to price in one or two interest-rate cuts from the divided Federal Open Market Committee. That gap in expectations has kept US yields elevated relative to Japanese rates, reinforcing downward pressure on the yen.Attention now turns to a heavy US data calendar that could further influence rate expectations and, by extension, USD/JPY. The week begins with the ISM surveys and culminates in Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which will be closely watched for confirmation that US labour market momentum is easing in a way that would justify further Fed easing. Until clearer evidence emerges of a decisive slowdown in US activity, or a more assertive tightening signal from Tokyo, the yen is likely to remain vulnerable. The persistence of wide rate differentials, coupled with global investors’ preference for dollar exposure at the start of the year, suggests that rallies in the Japanese currency may continue to be shallow and short-lived. ---Nikkei update: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:Goldman Sachs left its near-term price forecasts unchanged, projecting average prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate this year.Goldman sees limited near-term impact from Venezuela on oil pricesAny production recovery likely to be gradual and partialInfrastructure damage and underinvestment remain major constraintsNear-term Brent and WTI price forecasts unchangedLong-run downside risks increase from added global supplyProspects for a longer-term recovery in Venezuelan oil production could add to downward pressure on crude prices beyond the near-term horizon, according to Goldman Sachs, even as the bank cautions that any rebound would be slow, uneven and highly dependent on sustained investment.In a research note dated January 4 (via Bloomberg, gated), Goldman analysts said that while the recent US intervention in Venezuela has reshaped the country’s political outlook, it does not immediately alter oil market fundamentals. The bank expects any meaningful recovery in Venezuelan output to unfold only gradually, citing severely degraded infrastructure and years of underinvestment across the upstream sector. Analysts added that strong financial and policy incentives would be required to attract the scale of capital necessary to restore production capacity.Goldman emphasised that Venezuela’s oil industry has been in long-term decline, with output collapsing over the past two decades due to mismanagement, sanctions and infrastructure decay. As a result, Venezuela now accounts for less than 1% of global oil supply, significantly limiting its ability to influence prices in the short run. The bank therefore left its near-term price forecasts unchanged, projecting average prices of $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 for West Texas Intermediate this year.The assessment follows a dramatic escalation in geopolitical risk over the weekend, when the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a military operation that stunned global markets. While the political shock initially raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, Goldman noted that the intervention itself has not materially affected Venezuelan production or exports.Looking further ahead, however, the bank warned that a gradual return of Venezuelan barrels could add to a growing list of downside risks for oil prices in the latter part of the decade. Goldman pointed to stronger-than-expected production growth in both Russia and the United States, arguing that additional supply from Venezuela would further loosen balances in the outer years of its forecast horizon.Taken together, the analysts said these dynamics increase the risk that oil prices could face sustained pressure from 2027 onwards, particularly if global demand growth softens and investment elsewhere continues to surprise to the upside. While Venezuelan supply is unlikely to be a decisive factor in the near term, Goldman concluded that it reinforces a structurally more bearish long-run outlook for crude markets. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the back from holidays FX week!Some of us will have unpacked the car after a week or so at the beach and what have you. Some of us will have invaded Venezuela. Big news to open the year, summary:US forces carried out a surprise, large-scale operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás MaduroThe mission involved roughly 150 aircraft and disabled Caracas’ air defencesMaduro was detained at his residence and flown to a US aircraft carrier within hoursHe was later transferred to New York after Trump publicly confirmed the capture Early FX pricing shows limited market response, so far at least: EUR-USD 1.1724 USD-JPY 156.81GBP-USD 1.3462AUD-USD 0.6679 USD-CAD 1.3741USD-CHF 0.7918 NZD-USD 0.5760The operation sharply raises geopolitical risk across Latin America, with potential spillovers into oil markets. Globex will open in around 2 hour, at 6pm US Eastern time, 2300 GMT. Before adding more detail on Venezuela events, my usual caveat on early pricing ... As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online ... prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. -After months of escalating pressure on Caracas, US forces launched a highly coordinated operation that resulted in the seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the early hours of Saturday morning. The operation, codenamed Absolute Resolve, followed a prolonged period of military build-up in the Caribbean and repeated warnings from Washington over Maduro’s alleged role in drug trafficking to the United States.According to US officials, the mission was the culmination of months of planning and rehearsal. Around 150 aircraft took off from roughly 20 airbases across the region, forming the backbone of a rapid strike designed to neutralise Venezuelan defences and extract the country’s leader within a tightly controlled timeframe. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the operation had been rehearsed extensively to ensure speed and precision.In the opening phase, US forces disabled Venezuela’s air-defence and communications systems. President Donald Trump later claimed that Caracas was plunged into widespread darkness due to what he described as US “technical expertise”, though no further details were provided. Residents in the capital reported a series of loud explosions as the initial strikes unfolded.At 2:01am local time, US helicopters landed at Maduro’s residence in Caracas. Maduro and his wife were taken into custody, though US officials have not confirmed whether there was any exchange of fire or resistance during the operation.Just over two hours later, at 4:29am, Maduro was transferred to a US aircraft carrier, the USS Iwo Jima, and flown toward the United States. Trump later posted an image on his Truth Social account showing the Venezuelan leader blindfolded and dressed in a grey tracksuit.Following his departure from the carrier, Maduro was escorted on a flight that landed at Stewart Air National Guard Base in New York later that afternoon. The operation marks one of the most dramatic US interventions in Latin America in decades and is likely to have far-reaching geopolitical, legal, and market implications. By the time you've read down here some of the rates have changed, its thin and scatty out there! This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sun: OPEC+Mon: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); UK Mortgage Approvals/Lending (Nov), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec), Final PMIs (Dec)Tue: European Epiphany holiday (No After-Hours Trading in Italy); French & German Prelim HICP (Dec), EZ Final PMIs (Dec), UK Final PMIs (Dec)Wed: Australian CPI (Nov), German Retail Sales (Nov), Unemployment (Dec), Chinese FX Reserves (Dec), EZ Flash HICP (Dec), US ADP (Dec), ISM Services (Dec), JOLTS (Nov)Thu: SNB Minutes (Dec); German Industrial Orders (Nov), Swedish Flash CPIF (Dec), Swiss CPI (Dec), EZ Producer Prices (Nov), Consumer Confidence Final (Dec), US Weekly Claims (w/e 27th Dec), Chinese Trade Balance (Dec)Fri: German Industrial Production (Nov), Norwegian CPI (Dec), EZ Retail Sales (Nov), US NFP (Dec), Canadian Jobs (Dec), US Uni. of Michigan Prelim. (Jan)Fed Chair Nominee (TBC): US President Trump has suggested that he will name the successor to Fed Chair Powell early in 2026, CNBC reported the first week of January. The list of candidates has greatly narrowed from the 12 candidates initially. For the most part, NEC Director Hassett was seen as the clear favourite to replace Powell. However, in recent weeks, several reports have suggested that insiders are recommending against appointing Hassett as Fed Chair, and his lead as favourite has diminished somewhat. President Trump again reiterated criticism of current Fed Chair Powell for cutting rates too slowly, calling him a fool; Trump also repeated claims that Fed HQ renovations cost USD 4.1bln (others have suggested it is around USD 2.5bln), threatening a lawsuit, and saying he would love to fire Powell. The four candidates are: NEC Director Hassett (Polymarket has him as favourite, at 41%), former Fed Governor Warsh (Polymarket's second favourite, at 32%), Fed Governor Waller (15%) and BlackRock's Rick Rieder (4%). Waller is the only internal candidate. Powell’s chair term expires in May 2026. To read the full preview, please click here.OPEC+ (Sun): OPEC+ is expected to reaffirm its production pause through Q1, maintaining the halt to further supply increases, according to Bloomberg sources. The stance reflects concerns over a looming global oversupply backdrop, with crude prices sharply lower over 2025 and forecasters warning of a potential glut in 2026. Delegates indicate little appetite to resume hikes at this stage, according to reports. Recent Saudi–UAE geopolitical tensions have generated headlines but are widely viewed as noise rather than a threat to OPEC cohesion, with no expectation that they will spill over into production policy.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mon):As a basis of comparison, S&P Global's flash PMI data for December showed US manufacturing activity continued to expand in December, but momentum weakened. Output growth slowed to a three-month low, and overall PMI eased to 51.8, the weakest in five months. New orders fell for the first time in a year, signalling softening demand despite firms maintaining higher production levels. Backlogs declined, and input buying was cut, while inventories of unsold goods accumulated again. Looking ahead, S&P said that the outlook has become more cautious: lower sales raise concerns that current production levels are unsustainable unless demand recovers, while elevated costs linked to tariffs and supply delays continue to weigh on confidence.ISM Services PMI (Wed): As a basis of comparison, S&P Global's flash PMI data for December showed services activity expanding in December but at a notably slower pace. The business activity index fell to a six-month low, with growth in new business slipping to its weakest in 20 months, pointing to cooling demand across the sector. Employment growth nearly stalled as firms became more cautious. The outlook remains positive but has deteriorated slightly, sitting below the long-run average, S&P said. Rising input costs and sharply higher prices charged—partly blamed on tariffs and labour costs—are eroding confidence, although hopes of policy support and lower interest rates provide some offset.Australian CPI (Wed): The previous release showed CPI at 3.8% Y/Y in October, up from 3.6%, with the trimmed-mean (RBA’s preferred inflation gauge) at 3.3% Y/Y — both measures above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Inflationary pressures have lingered late in 2025, contributing to the ongoing debate around the RBA’s policy outlook for 2026. Recent RBA narrative suggested that higher electricity prices due to the end of government rebates are biasing the annual inflation rate higher into mid-2026, and that policymakers have signalled they are prepared to reconsider rate moves if inflation does not subside.EZ Flash HICP (Wed): Investec expects Eurozone inflation to remain in a “good place”, with headline HICP seen dipping 0.1pp to 2.0% Y/Y, exactly in line with the ECB’s target, while core HICP is forecast unchanged at 2.4% Y/Y. Disinflation is expected to be driven primarily by lower fuel prices, alongside a partial unwind of November’s softness in non-energy goods and firmness in services. That said, services inflation will remain closely watched by the ECB given firmer-than-expected wage growth, while authorities are also monitoring potential trade diversion effects from Chinese exports, which have so far had a limited impact on consumer prices.SNB Minutes (Thu): In December, the SNB maintained its policy rate at 0.00%, as expected, and reiterated its willingness to be active in the FX market as necessary. On the economy, the SNB maintained its inflation forecast for 2025 but sharply cut its 2026 projection to 0.3% from a previous forecast of 0.5%. At the subsequent press conference, Chairman Schlegel reiterated that the bank stands ready to intervene in the FX market and, more notably, said he could not say that a lower CPI outlook makes NIRP more likely. From the minutes, attention will be on further detail around the inflation forecasts and whether Schlegel’s view on NIRP is shared by the board as a whole.Swedish Flash CPIF (Thu): November’s reading came in cooler than expected at 2.3% Y/Y (exp. 2.5%, prev. 3.1%). Thereafter, the one-year money-market view fell to 1.6% from 2.1%, while the five-year view was maintained at 2.1%. In December, the Riksbank maintained its policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. On inflation, the Riksbank said that while there have been some month-to-month variations, inflation has overall developed in line with forecasts and is around the 2% mark. Looking ahead, the Riksbank maintained the view that it expects rates to remain at this level for some time; as such, the December inflation data is unlikely to alter this assessment.Swiss CPI (Thu): November’s print was 0.0% Y/Y, following 0.1% in October. The Q4 2025 average forecast, as of the December statement, is 0.1%, down from a previous forecast of 0.4%, implying a December print of around 0.2%. While the release will draw attention, the primary focus remains on the medium-term outlook, which the SNB described as only “little changed” in December versus September. Crucially, CPI is expected to remain within the 0–2% target range for the entire forecast horizon. In the near term, Chairman Schlegel has arguably taken some of the sting out of any cooler-than-expected print, saying he cannot say that a lower CPI outlook makes a return to NIRP more likely.Chinese Inflation (Fri): CPI Y/Y for December is expected to tick lower to 0.6% from 0.7%, whilst PPI is expected to remain at -2.2% Y/Y. In November, China’s consumer inflation rose to 0.7% Y/Y, marking a 21-month high driven largely by food prices, while factory-gate prices (PPI) remained weak with a -2.2% Y/Y decline, underscoring persistent deflationary pressures amid weak domestic demand. Domestically driven price pressures have struggled to gain momentum despite recent policy support, and producer deflation has persisted for an extended period, reflecting ongoing slack in factory activity and weak global demand.Norwegian CPI (Fri): November’s CPI showed core inflation at 3.0% Y/Y (exp. 3.1%, prev. 3.4%), while the headline rate was 3.0% Y/Y (exp. 2.7%, prev. 3.1%). For December, Norges Bank forecasts core inflation at 3.0% and the headline at 2.9%. Inflation in Norway is somewhat more pertinent than for its Scandinavian peers, as Norges Bank expects to ease the policy rate over the course of 2026, with the rate seen averaging 3.9% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, versus the current 4.00%. However, the December data are unlikely to materially alter the narrative that a cut could become possible from mid-2026, depending on developments in CPI and the NOK. As a reminder, Governor Bache struck a hawkish note in December, making clear the bank is in no hurry to cut.Canadian Jobs (Fri): The December jobs report will be in focus to see if the strength seen in recent months, particularly November, continues. In November, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5%, marking three months of solid employment growth. The BoC Minutes noted that while this was a sign the labour market was improving, a broader set of indicators showed a mixed picture. “After large job losses over the summer, employment in the sectors most exposed to trade had stabilised at a lower level than before the trade conflict. Other sectors, particularly services, had boosted overall employment in recent months”. Meanwhile, the BoC said that much of the recent hiring was in part-time jobs, and highlighted that vacancies were low and surveys of businesses indicated hiring intentions were subdued. The strong labour market reports recently have seen markets price in rate hikes now from the BoC. There is currently c. 20bps of hikes priced by year-end, implying a 76% probability of a 25bps hike.US Jobs Data (Fri):Expectations are currently for the December jobs report to show 55k jobs added, slowing from the prior 64k, with the unemployment rate expected to tick down to 4.5% from 4.6%. The December jobs data is expected to be relatively easier to interpret, following the October (headline -105k) and November (+64k) readings. Analysts suggest that October's large decline in federal worker payrolls (-162k) was a one-off, and November's data showed a more modest decline (-6k). Analysts also expect that November's government shutdown will have a diminished impact on the data. The December jobs data will ultimately be used to set expectations of how the Fed will conduct its monetary policy in January, following the recent softer-than-expected CPI data and resilient economic growth data, which many analysts see as an argument that the Fed may pause. The latest FOMC meeting minutes showed a finely balanced decision, with most participants backing a cut to 3.50–3.75% due to rising downside risks to employment, while some preferred no change, and one favoured a larger move (nine members voted for a 25bps rate cut; Miran voted for a 50bps reduction; Goolsbee and Schmid voted for unchanged). Most judged further cuts are likely if inflation declines, but several favoured holding rates steady to assess lagged effects. Inflation was seen above 2%, with tariff-related pressures noted, and risks were judged as tilted to the upside. Participants noted that labour markets were softening, growth was moderate, and balance-sheet management was focused on maintaining ample reserves. Analysts said the minutes underline a clear split within the Fed, reinforcing a cautious policy outlook. While the majority remain open to further easing, confidence is explicitly conditional on clearer disinflation, particularly given concerns that additional cuts could undermine commitment to the 2% target. The emphasis on a pause to assess lagged effects signals sensitivity to policy transmission risks. Softer labour conditions justify the recent cut, but persistent inflation uncertainty and tariff effects argue against near-term follow-through, leaving policy firmly data-dependent rather than on a preset course. Barclays said the minutes showed support for a December rate cut and further easing if inflation declines, but revealed divisions over the future rate path and timing. The bank writes that the minutes suggest a likely pause at the January meeting while the FOMC assesses the effects of recent cuts, noting that participants remained concerned about inflation, saw the labour market softening, and viewed growth as resilient.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk. This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

The US launched military operations in Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Images from the country showed multiple strikes and fires. US President Trump announced that Madura was captured.An executive from state oil company PDVSA said the La Guaira port was severely damaged but that oil facilities were unscathed. Trump We will wait to hear what Trump has to say about the plans for what comes next but in December he talked about the 2007 seizure of some assets from American oil companies and that his intention was "getting land, oil rights, whatever we had" returned."They took it away because we had a president that maybe wasn't watching. But they're not going to do that again.""We want it back," he said. "They took our oil rights — we had a lot of oil there. As you know they threw our companies out, and we want it back."Russia responded to the reports saying that if actions took place "constitute an unacceptable violation of the sovereignty of an independent state".US Senator Mike Lee said he spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio who said "Maduro has been arrested by US personnel to stand trial on criminal charges in the United States, and that the kinetic action we saw tonight was deployed to protect and defend those executing the arrest warrant."The EU foreign affairs representative Kaja Kallas said:I have spoken with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and our Ambassador in Caracas. The EU is closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela. The EU has repeatedly stated that Mr Maduro lacks legitimacy and has defended a peaceful transition. Under all circumstances, the principles of international law and the UN Charter must be respected. We call for restraint. The safety of EU citizens in the country is our top priority.For markets, this might be a short-lived event but that could change quickly depending on how Venezuela responds. My guess is that America had local help and there is some kind of coup underway, otherwise Maduro will be replaced by deputies. In terms of markets, Venezuela has massive oil reserves but its production and exports are less than 1 million barrels per day and have been disrupted recently anyway. What could be more concerning is the message this sends in Latin America and how China and Russia respond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market witnessed a notable rally today, with the semiconductor sector leading the charge. Key players like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged by 2.02% and 3.63% respectively, reflecting robust investor confidence in tech hardware advancements.? Technology: Broad gains were observed with companies like Oracle (ORCL) and Palantir (PLTR) climbing up by 1.44% and 1.12%.? Consumer Cyclical: The sector stayed bullish with leaders such as Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA) rising by 0.84% and 1.80% respectively.? Financial: It was a mixed day in financials, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posting a modest gain of 0.14%, whereas Visa (V) slightly fell by 0.58%.? Healthcare: Sectors like healthcare showed minor setbacks with Eli Lilly (LLY) slipping by 0.46%.Market Mood and TrendsOverall, the market sentiment was bullish, primarily fueled by the impressive performance in the tech industry. The ongoing investor optimism in tech upgrades and innovations propelled this momentum. On the other hand, caution remains in the financial sector, reflecting uncertainties around economic policies.Strategic RecommendationsAmidst this surge in the tech sector, investors are recommended to keep a balanced approach toward their portfolios. Here are some strategic insights:✨ Focus on Technology: With semiconductors showing strength, tech appears promising for both short-term momentum and long-term growth.? Monitor Financial Sector: Given the mixed performance, it's wise to keep an eye on economic indicators that could shift dynamics within financial stocks.? Diversify Across Sectors: To mitigate risks, diversifying investments can safeguard against potential volatility in the healthcare and consumer defensive sectors.As always, keeping abreast of market data and analyses is crucial for strategic planning. Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for ongoing insights and personalized advice. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Canadian manufacturing sector remains stuck in the mud as the final Canadian S&P Global survey of manufacturers was released. It’s another soft reading for the Canadian economy, and the details here are painting a stagflationary picture that the Bank of Canada isn't going to like.Here are the details from the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for December:48.6 vs 48.4 prior.Output Index: Declined at a quicker rateNew Orders with a 'solid decline'Employment: 11th consecutive month of job shedding.Prices: Selling price inflation hit a six-month high.The report explicitly blames tariffs for driving up prices while simultaneously killing demand. Fortunately, the consumer side of the economy has remained strong as manufacturing gets left behind. A year of prolonged uncertainty around USMCA negotiations isn't going to help.Firms reported that average lead times lengthened because of customs delays, specifically with US imports. Even worse, the uncertainty around trade policy is causing a "general air of uncertainty" that is weighing on output for the year ahead, something that will hit capexPaul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global:“Canada’s manufacturing economy ended the year on a subdued note, with output and new orders both falling again – as they have done in each month of 2025 apart from January. Once again, tariffs remained an important theme amongst PMI survey respondents, with a general air of uncertainty continuing to negatively weigh on current and expected output levels for the year ahead. “This means firms remain naturally cautious, and seeking an operating leanness, either in terms of labour capacity or inventory holdings. Purchasing activity was also cut again in December, although supply-chain delays continue, and the price of inputs shifted higher – which firms once again closely linked to tariffs.” This is a reminder that there are problems in Canadian manufacturing as this survey has been in contraction for 11 straight months, shedding jobs the whole way down. Normally, that would scream for more cuts but look at the inflation component: Input price inflation picked up, and selling price inflation is at a six-month high. Firms are passing those tariff costs right along to consumers.USD/CAD is up 16 pips on the first real trading day of 2026 after falling about 5% last year.Yesterday, I wrote a Canadian dollar outlook for 2026 and later today I will be on BNNBloomberg TV talking about it. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Markets won't be back in full swing until next week but we're getting a bit of a teaser of what the focus will be today already. US futures are running higher but it is once again commodities that are hogging the spotlight, in particular precious metals. After melting higher in December, we're starting to get a taste of that again to start the new year with both gold and silver running up today.The former is up nearly 2% to $4,393 with the latter up over 4% to $74.38. The gains have largely been sustained in European morning trade, with buyers not getting too carried away just yet amid quieter trading. In part, the technicals are also hinting at some near-term resistance perhaps despite all the heat.As indicated by the charts above, both gold and silver are running up to contest their respective 100-hour moving average (red line) now.The silver chart looks more promising after buyers looked to have put on a defense around the 200-hour moving average (blue line) after the latest pullback from the post-Christmas highs.As for gold, its own 200-hour moving average (blue line) now acts as a second near-term resistance layer in limiting the upside. But if buyers can clear the $4,400 mark, it will be a good first step in reestablishing momentum to chase back the recent highs above $4,500 to start the new year.The seasonal strength for gold in December played out accordingly and what is scary is that January promises to be an even stronger seasonal month for the precious metal. You can check out the seasonal pattern here, where January has historically been the best month for gold over the past two decades.If that is any indication for the start of 2026, precious metals might still have scope to travel higher before meeting the point where a rather significant pullback is warranted.Just a word of caution though, we have seen before how seasonal strength in gold is frontrun in December before a less convincing showing in January. That especially since the period after the Covid pandemic. So, just take note of that.Gold put on a solid December showing in gaining 2.5% on the month and is up over 33% since August last year. The numbers for silver look even more absurd with 27% gains in December and it being up 102% since August last year. Is there one last breath to the run before we hit an air pocket? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.2There is a slight negative revision but it still marks an improvement to November, as the UK manufacturing recovery continues at end of 2025. Of note, both output and new orders nudged higher in helping to see the headline reading post a 15-month high. So, that's a positive signal at least. However, there was a mild increase in price pressures as input cost inflation accelerated and output charges rose after declining in November. S&P Global notes that:“Further signs of growth emanated from the UK manufacturing sector before the turn of the year. Output rose for the third successive month and new order intakes improved, albeit slightly, for the first time since September 2024. The domestic market remained a positive spur to growth while new export business, despite having now fallen for almost four consecutive years, took a sizeable stride towards stabilising. "UK manufacturers benefited from several reduced headwinds towards the end of the year, as the negative impacts of the uncertainty surrounding the Autumn Budget, tariffs and the JLR cyber-attack all moderated. "The start of 2026 will show if growth can be sustained after these temporary boosts subside. The base of the expansion needs to shift more towards rising demand and away from inventory building and backlog clearance. December’s interest rate cut will hopefully play some part in assisting this transition, encouraging manufacturers and their customers to increase spending and investment. Manufacturers remain uncertain on this score, with business optimism falling for the first time in three months in December.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 49.6 This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 48.2The headline reading is a 10-month low as a drop in demand conditions sees German manufacturing activity slump in the final month of last year. Of note, manufacturing output slid into contraction territory for the first time in ten months amid falling export sales. And that led to deeper cuts to employment, purchasing and stocks of inputs.Meanwhile, price pressures remain sticky as goods producers reported a rise in average input prices for the first time in almost three years in December. And panel members also noted that metals were a key driver of cost inflation. So, that's something to take note of at least. HCOB comments that:“Manufacturing had shown hints of recovery earlier in 2025, but the downturn has deepened again in December, driven by investment and consumer goods. The headline PMI index has slipped to its lowest point since last February. The sharp decline in export orders, which have now fallen for the fifth month in a row, points to a very weak start to 2026. “In December, industry was affected not only by weak demand and falling sales prices, but also by rising input prices, which came as a surprise. Over the past few months, these prices had shown signs of stabilising, but an increase is something that has not happened for almost three years. This increase could be due to the higher prices of industrial metals such as copper and tin, which were more expensive in euro terms both compared to the month before and a year ago. “Inventories of purchased goods have fallen at an accelerated pace over the past three months. With orders drying up, companies also want to save on inventories and are reducing them. Stocks of inputs have been falling since the beginning of 2023, which is unusually long, and developments over the past three months give no hope for a turnaround anytime soon. “Staff reductions continued almost unabated in December. Lower investment and cost-saving measures likely drove that trend. The accelerated depreciation option, which has been available since last July, has obviously not yet had any visible effect. With the start of government-backed infrastructure projects and the booming demand for defence equipment, things could look different in 2026. In fact, more companies now expect higher production a year from now.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 47.8The final estimate is little changed from the preliminary reading as France's manufacturing sector saw a modest jump in activity to round off the 2025 year. A strong rise in new export orders was the key reason in underpinning sentiment while employment conditions also returned to growth on the month. Meanwhile, output volumes also came close to stabilising after November's sharp and accelerated contraction. HCOB notes that:"2025 closes on a surprisingly upbeat note. Business conditions in France’s manufacturing sector improved in December, with the PMI climbing back above the growth threshold to reach its highest level in three-and-a-half years. While this should not obscure the structural challenges of recent years, it is nonetheless a step in the right direction. Looking ahead, the sector could benefit from large-scale orders in defence and aerospace, particularly from abroad, as export demand has already shown greater resilience than domestic orders in recent months. Still, persistent political instability and the resulting uncertainty among businesses and households remain key headwinds for future prospects. "After several months of contraction, production at French manufacturing plants broadly stabilised in December. Robust export orders were a key support, even as pressure on supply chains and cautious customer behaviour continue to limit output. Companies have also been meeting orders by drawing down inventories. Purchasing activity, which has been declining since 2022, is now approaching stabilisation, potentially signalling that the sector may have reached its trough heading into next year. "The modest improvement in business conditions has prompted firms to raise prices again after three consecutive months of cuts, likely aimed at stimulating sales. Input cost inflation remains subdued, providing some relief, but margin pressures will persist if demand fails to strengthen further." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 50.6A fresh drop in output and new orders mark a setback for Italy's manufacturing sector in December. The good news at least is that cost pressures were seen easing but employment conditions also suffered on the month. On the latter, manufacturers made further cutbacks to their workforce numbers, signalling a full quarter of job shedding. Tough. HCOB notes that:“The year concluded with Italian manufacturing sliding back into contraction, as the HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9 in December, down sharply from November’s 50.6. The latest reading marks the steepest deterioration in operating conditions since March, abruptly ending the brief growth spurt seen in the previous month. The downturn was driven primarily by renewed declines in output and new orders, both of which contracted at the fastest pace in nine months. “Weakness was broad-based, with consumer goods producers reporting the sharpest fall, while challenges in steel and automotive sectors caused notable headwinds. Export orders also slipped, confirming November’s rebound as short-lived, though the pace of decline remained modest compared to earlier in the year. In response to subdued sales, firms scaled back production and continued to trim employment, marking a full quarter of job shedding. Firms also pared back purchasing and ran down input inventories to match weaker production needs. “On the cost front, softer demand helped ease inflationary pressures, with input price growth cooling from November’s threeyear high. This allowed manufacturers to offer slight discounts, although price cuts were only fractional. Despite the challenging backdrop, sentiment improved marginally, supported by plans for new product launches and market expansion in 2026. Overall, December’s data confirm ongoing challenges for Italy’s manufacturing economy, with subdued domestic and external demand likely to weigh on near-term performance, even as firms look ahead with cautious optimism.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior 51.5Spain's manufacturing sector slid back into contraction territory for the first time since April amid falls in both output and new orders. Softer demand conditions are to blame but manufacturers also chose not to renew temporary labour contracts, resulting in the biggest monthly fall in employment for two years. HCOB notes that:“Spain’s manufacturing sector saw an unexpected setback in December. Both output and new orders slipped below the growth threshold for the first time since spring. This signifies a shift after a period of steady resilience, suggesting that underlying downward pressures may finally be catching up. Despite this pullback, the industry remains more resilient than its German or French counterparts, though the latest trend raises some concerns. “Whether Europe’s broader industrial malaise will spill over into Spain in a lasting way is still unclear. Our survey responses suggest that production cuts were driven by softer demand and inventory adjustments. Interestingly, business expectations for the months ahead improved despite the current weakness, hinting that December’s decline may be a temporary dip rather than the start of a prolonged downturn. “External demand is becoming a growing risk. Weakness among key European partners, rising fragmentation in global trade, and competitive pressure from China are weighing on export orders. Adding to the challenge is a relatively strong euro, frequently cited as another drag on demand. This combination of headwinds, coupled with a bunch of falling raw material prices in December, has eased input costs but also intensified pricing pressure. Many firms have been forced to cut selling prices to support volumes, an environment that continues to squeeze margins.” This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Fed might be headed for a more dovish shift in 2026 but Treasury yields may stay underpinned regardless. And that's not a good recipe for risk trades, even if the early positioning flows today might point to a more optimistic picture for equities to start the year. As much as stocks are hoping for another rip higher, the bond market is one to keep an eye out for just in case.So far today, 10-year yields are shooting higher to around 4.18% currently. The high earlier touched 4.195% and that comes close to testing the crucial 4.20% mark - one that has limited the bond selling since September at least.However, 30-year yields in the US have now jumped up to 4.87% today. And that is the highest since early September last year. So, why are the bond vigilantes going back at it again if interest rates are supposed to be coming down?I would argue that a strong reasoning for that is it's all tied to US debt and fiscal considerations. With Trump's administration pushing for a record amount of debt issuance, it continues to flood the market with more bonds. And for one, that brings us to a simple supply versus demand argument in why prices are falling and yields are rising.But amid fiscal worries and the fact that the US is going to keep seeing a high budget deficit, the risk and term premium for holding US debt is going to keep seeing upwards pressure. And that's quite a reasonable argument to imagine given that yields are continuing to push up despite cooling economic data, in particular as reflected in labour market conditions.With 30-year yields potentially slowly creeping back towards the 5% mark, that is one that could start to rile up risk trades once again as we look to start the year. So, don't just think that market sentiment is looking rather easy-going with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Asia being off to a decent start to the new year today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.3%House prices +0.6% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.8%It's a soft end to the year with the average house price ending at £271,068 for December. But overall, UK housing market activity has remained resilient all through 2025. One has to remember that household and consumer sentiment in the UK has been relatively subdued for much of the year and that is not to mention that mortgage rates are also still holding well above the Covid pandemic lows.Nationwide notes that:"House prices evolved broadly in line with our expectations. Annual price growth slowed steadily from 4.7% at the end of 2024 to 2.1% in the middle of 2025 and then to 1.8% in November. As a result, prices were close to the all-time high recorded in the summer of 2022 as the year drew to a close."Looking to next year, they see house prices strengthening a little further with expectation that "annual house price growth is to remain broadly in the 2 to 4% range". The reasoning for that being:"The changes to property taxes announced in the Budget are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. The high value council tax surcharge is not being introduced until April 2028 and will apply to less than 1% of properties in England and around 3% in London. The increase in taxes on income from properties may dampen buy-to-let activity further and hold down the supply of new rental properties coming onto the market, which could in turn maintain some upward pressure on private rental growth." This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Happy New Year, everyone! I hope you're all still enjoying the holiday break as markets are still more or less sidelined until next week. That is when activity and liquidity will slowly pick back up after the rest period from Christmas to the new year. As such, there aren't any major expiries to take note of today with a lack of interest and appetite with many market players still away. The full list can be seen below.Things will slowly pick up in the week ahead, so don't expect all too much on the expiries board and the relevant impact. Positioning flows to start the year will also be a key consideration for major currencies, so that will be the more pertinent thing to watch out for.But in looking to the early days, a lot of focus will stay on precious metals with gold and silver starting to rally again today. The former is up 1.5% to $4,378 with the latter up 3.9% to around $74.05 currently. So, that will continue to captivate the market's attention for the most part as we look to get things underway in 2026.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Global broker STARTRADER is unveiling a refreshed look and feel as part of its brand repositioning. Since its establishment, the company has been focused on strengthening the trust it has built with clients, partners, and institutional businesses.The repositioning will be reflected in the brand's visual identity. To align with the newly introduced tagline, “Built on Trust. Driven by Growth,” the update introduces a more minimal and refined design direction. With calmer colour palettes and cleaner compositions, the identity now reflects the broker’s commitment to a more confident, composed, and client-centric experience.The mission and vision now also place greater emphasis on people and long-term relationships. Accessibility, transparency, and empowerment are the words that reinforce the trust the brand is rooted in. Of course, the brand image and the product offerings are closely aligned, as it reflects the continuous improvement of STARTRADER’s offerings, an ongoing effort already in motion and one that will continue, ensuring that growth remains grounded in client needs, confidence, and consistency.Internally, the repositioning now empowers teams to deliver consistent and more thoughtful experiences in every interaction. STARTRADER’s people play a central role in bringing the new brand to life through their shared efforts across different departments.As the year unfolds, the evolution of the brand will be witnessed across STARTRADER’s touchpoints, from digital platforms and communications to client and partner engagement and sponsorships with other brands. The positioning highlights the broker’s focus on reinforcing reliability while continuing to expand its global footprint, product offering, and institutional capabilities.About STARTRADERSTARTRADER https://www.startrader.com/ is a global CFD brokerage that provides its clients with opportunities to trade financial instruments online. STARTRADER services both Partners and Retail Clients, who can trade using the MetaTrader Platform, the STAR-APP, and using STAR-COPY. As a global broker, STARTRADER holds a client-first approach as our core principle. Regulated in 5 jurisdictions (ASIC, FSA, FSC, FSCA, and SCA), STARTRADER upholds strong governance alongside sustainable growth. STARTRADER's team comprises dedicated professionals working collaboratively to deliver quality service to its Partners and Clients. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea (BOK) warns weak won risks inflation as USD/KRW diverges from fundamentalsTrump TACO now with pasta - backtracks on Italian pasta tariffs after industry pushbackAustralia manufacturing PMI holds 51.6 in December. Hiring accelerates & inflation firms.ICYMI: China slaps 55% tariff on excess beef imports under new three-year safeguard regimeCanadian dollar outlook 2026: Tariff risks are overblownSummary:Asia-Pacific trade was thin but directional as markets remained in holiday mode ahead of a full return on January 5.The U.S. dollar weakened, while precious metals surged sharply, led by gold and silver.Gold broke above US$4,370, with silver, platinum and palladium all posting strong gains.Australian manufacturing remained in expansion, while South Korea’s factory sector returned to growth in December.FX moves were notable, albeit not in large ranges, with EUR, AUD, GBP and SGD all strengthening against the USD.Professional market participants largely remained in holiday mode, a full return will happen on Monday, 5 January. Liquidity across the Asia-Pacific region was thin, but price action was nonetheless revealing, with clear directional moves emerging in FX and commodities.The U.S. dollar lost ground nearly across the board, while precious metals extended their rally. Gold surged through US$4,370, silver rose close to 3%, and both platinum and palladium gained +3%. The strength in metals was mirrored by gains in the euro, Australian dollar and sterling. Yen traded its way, USD/JPY rose. While volumes were light, the moves had the feel of a broader macro narrative re-asserting itself rather than random holiday noise.Looking ahead to 2026, the dollar appears vulnerable. With U.S. mid-term elections approaching, fiscal policy is likely to turn increasingly expansionary as politicians seek to support growth and equity markets. At the same time, pressure from the White House on the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively is expected to intensify even further. The prospect of a White House-appointed Fed chair later this year only reinforces expectations of a more accommodative policy stance. Against that backdrop, confidence in the dollar could erode further, creating a supportive environment for non-USD assets, particularly precious metals.On the data front, mainland Chinese and New Zealand markets were closed for holidays. In Australia, December manufacturing PMI held steady at 51.6, remaining in expansion territory and confirming modest resilience in the sector.In South Korea, Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong warned that excessive won weakness could harm domestic businesses and add to inflation pressures. Separately, manufacturing PMI data showed the sector returning to expansion in December, rising to 50.1 after two months below the 50 threshold separating expansion from contraction, helped by a rebound in export demand.Meanwhile, the Singapore dollar strengthened after data showed 2025 GDP growth of a robust 4.8%. Analysts cited a resilient global economy, strong export demand, some front-loading ahead of tariff pressures, and broad-based gains across key sectors for the blockbuster result and have revised forecasts upwards now. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.