China’s property downturn deepened in August, with both sales and prices continuing to fall despite new support measures in major cities. Data from China Real Estate Information Corp. released on Sunday showed new home sales among the top 100 developers totaled 207 billion yuan ($29 billion), down 17.6% from a year earlier and extending a six-month decline. This followed a 24% drop in July.The slump, now in its fifth year, has worsened since the second quarter as falling prices highlight the fading impact of last year’s stimulus push and raise fears of deflation. Beijing and Shanghai relaxed some home-buying restrictions in August, though analysts judged the moves only mildly supportive. Authorities may roll out more measures in September, including faster urban renewal projects, according to local media. ---Also from China over the weekend:China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3)And, to come later today:Economic calendar in Asia 01 September 2025 - Monday's calendar in China manufacturing PMI This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Maritime agencies reported an incident on Sunday southwest of Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Yanbu. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), a vessel experienced a nearby splash from an unidentified projectile and heard a loud bang, though its crew remained safe and the ship continued its journey. British security firm Ambrey confirmed awareness of the incident, located about 37.5 nautical miles from Yanbu. Neither agency identified those responsible, and an investigation is underway.Yanbu is a key port on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast. Since 2023, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have targeted ships in the Red Sea they consider linked to Israel, citing support for Palestinians in Gaza. It remains unclear whether the Houthis were involved, and they have not commented. - Oil futures trade will open at 1800 US Eastern time/2200 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Over the weekend we had data from China:China Manufacturing PMI (August 2025) 49.4 (expected 49.5) Services 50.3 (expected 50.3)This'll be followed up today by the private manufacturing PMI survey from S&P Global, also expected to remain in contraction. Also over the weekend was even bigger news:US Federal Appeals court rules that most of Trump's tariffs are illegalA set-back for tariff man , but the legal process still has room to unfold (see the post for the details). This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.The times in the left-most column are GMT.The numbers in the right-most column are the 'prior' (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Good morning, afternoon or evening to all ForexLive traders and welcome to the start of the new FX week. Indicative rates are not too much changed from late Friday levelsEUR/USD 1.1694USD/JPY 147.09GBP/USD 1.3503USD/CHF 0.7993USD/CAD 1.3737AUD/USD 0.6545NZD/USD 0.5897 This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Mon: US Labor Day, South Korean Trade Balance Prelim (Aug), Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Final), EZ, UK, US Manufacturing PMI (Final), New Zealand Terms of Trade (Q2)Tue: South Korean CPI (Aug), EZ Flash HICP (Aug), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug)Wed: NBP Announcement, Australia Real GDP (Q2), US ADP National Employment (Aug), Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Final), EZ, UK, US Services PMI (Final), US Durable Goods R (Jul)Thu: Swedish CPIF (Aug), US ISM Services PMI (Aug)Fri: UK Retail Sales (Aug), EZ GDP R (Q2), US Jobs Report (Aug), Canadian Jobs Report (Aug)EZ Flash HICP (Tue): Expectations are for HICP Flash Y/Y to print at 2.0% (prev. 2.0%), with the “super-core” forecast at 2.2% (prev. 2.3%). As a reminder, the prior release showed headline Y/Y HICP held steady at 2%, super-core ticked lower to 2.3% from 2.4% and the services component nudged lower to 3.2% from 3.3%. Oxford Economics noted that energy prices remained in deflation, demand-driven inflationary pressures continued to decrease, and services inflation steadily disinflated. For the upcoming report, analysts at Investec note that despite a downtick in services inflation, the headline rate is likely to rise to 2.1% due to unhelpful energy base effects. Elsewhere, the desk expects to see a stabilisation in food price inflation following the increase seen in 2025. From a policy perspective, markets price a circa 34% chance of a 25bps rate cut by year-end, with the odds of further loosening having faded alongside the EU-US trade agreement and a more resilient-than-expected Eurozone economy. That being said, if the strengthening of the EUR is to pose the risk of an inflation undershoot in the region, some voices on the Governing Council may grow increasingly in favour of further easing. Note, Goldman Sachs sees headline inflation broadly below target throughout 2026.US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tue):As a basis of comparison, the flash S&P Global US manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in August from July’s 49.8, marking a 39-month high and signalling a renewed improvement in factory conditions. Output climbed for a third consecutive month at the fastest pace since May 2022, supported by the largest inflow of new orders since February 2024. Manufacturing employment rebounded, recording the largest payroll increase since March 2022, while input inventories also rose sharply. Faster supplier deliveries provided a minor drag on the PMI, but less so than in July. S&P Global said that optimism in the sector was lifted by policy support, such as tariffs, and remained well above the post-pandemic average. However, firms’ confidence stayed below January’s recent peak due to concerns over higher costs and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly around international trade and supply chains. The report suggested continued expansion in manufacturing, underpinned by strong demand, though caution persists amid cost pressures and external risks.Australian GDP (Wed): Q2 GDP is expected to show another subdued print, following Q1 growth of 0.2% Q/Q and 1.3% Y/Y. Westpac forecasts a 0.4% Q/Q rise, leaving annual growth at just 1.3% in six-month annualised terms, well below the RBA’s revised trend of 2.0%. Westpac highlights that the recovery has stalled over H1, with public demand proving weaker than anticipated—public construction fell 5.1% across the first two quarters and infrastructure spending dropped more than 7%. The desk adds that private capex has failed to offset the pullback, with non-residential building activity down 2.6% and machinery and equipment investment still below late-2024 levels. Consumer spending improved modestly on real income gains, but momentum has since softened. Commodity exports rebounded, led by iron ore, though higher imports left net trade flat. Overall, a weak Q2 print would reinforce the fragile growth backdrop and support market expectations of further RBA easing into year-end. Markets currently price some 20% chance of a 25bps cut at the 30th September meeting, with November’s confab currently baking in 24.5bps worth of easing.Swedish CPIF (Thu):The August inflation report will be key in dictating the policy decision at the next Riksbank meeting on Sept 23. In terms of expectations via SEB, analysts see core CPIF to slow in August to 2.9% Y/Y (prev. 3.2% Y/Y), but still remain a touch above the Riksbank’s own target. However, the bank sees headline Y/Y CPIF to rise a touch to 3.2% (prev. 3% Y/Y) on higher electricity prices. As a reminder, July’s inflation data printed more or less in line with the consensus, and Core CPIF Y/Y for July was a touch below expectations, whilst M/M matched consensus. The elevated inflation metrics led the Riksbank to keep rates steady at its August meeting. Within that, the Bank kept the door open for “some probability” of another cut this year – and should inflation cool in August, SEB thinks the Bank will opt for a 25bps cut in September, with policymakers also wary of the slowing activity picture in the region. The Minutes of the most recent meeting showed that some members viewed the upturn in inflation as temporary, and should that prove to be the case in August, then it may raise the probability of a cut in September.US ISM Services PMI (Thu):As a point of comparison, the flash S&P Global US services PMI fell slightly to 55.4 in August from July’s 55.7, marking a two-month low, but signalled continued robust expansion in the sector. Services sales rose at the fastest pace since December, supported by stronger exports and improved customer confidence. Average prices charged climbed at the sharpest rate since August 2022, reflecting sustained cost pass-through, while goods price inflation eased slightly but remained elevated. Backlogs in services held at the joint-steepest rate since May 2022. S&P Global noted that business activity growth eased from July’s year-to-date high, though firms remained buoyed by new product offerings and strong demand. Its report suggested a continued expansionary trajectory for services, supported by resilient domestic demand and a modest return to export growth, even as inflationary pressures remain elevated.UK Retail Sales (Fri):Expectations are for the delayed July retail sales report to show Y/Y at 1.3% (prev. 1.7%) and M/M 0.2% (prev. 0.9%). Core Y/Y is expected at 1.1% (prev. 1.8%) and core M/M at 0.4% (prev. 0.6%). In terms of recent retail indicators, BRC retail sales for July rose 1.8% Y/Y (prev. 2.7%) with the accompanying report noting “with sales growth at these levels, it is barely touching the sides of covering the GBP 7bln new costs imposed on retailers at the last Budget. If the upcoming Autumn Budget sees more taxes levied on retailers’ shoulders, many will be forced to make difficult choices about the future of shops and jobs, and ongoing pressure would push prices higher.” Elsewhere, the Barclaycard Spending report noted that growth “was predominantly driven by clothing retailers, who had their strongest month of growth since September 2024, as July’s changeable weather led consumers to double up on purchases for both rainy and sunny weather.” For the upcoming ONS report, Oxford Economics pencils in a 0.2% M/M decline in July due to “the level of sales in the non-food and non-store categories in June being much higher than in previous months,” so it thinks that there's scope for some payback in the July report.US Jobs Report (Fri): The consensus expects 75k nonfarm payrolls to be added to the US economy in August (prev. 73k), with the unemployment rate seen rising to 4.3% (from 4.2%; vs Fed end-2025 projection of 4.5%). Average earnings are seen rising +0.3% M/M, matching the July figure, and average workweek hours are expected to be unchanged at 34.3hrs. Analysts at Barclays are in line with the consensus, expecting +75k nonfarm payrolls. The bank notes that their monthly models, which use weekly initial and continuing unemployment claims and other employment indicators, project a stronger payroll gain than their main forecast, although it cautions that these inputs swing substantially month-to-month due to distortions in seasonal adjustment from the pandemic, so they place more weight on the median model forecasts. On revisions, Barclays says that while late-arriving responses caused downward revisions in July, there is little evidence for meaningful serial correlation in revisions across months, so they do not expect substantial changes to June or July estimates. However, they acknowledge that tariff-related disruptions could affect non-responding establishments, which could influence hiring. In terms of the implications for Fed policy, many brokerages now expect a 25bps Fed rate cut in September following Chair Powell’s warning at Jackson Hole on rising labour market risks. Powell highlighted downside employment risks, including potential layoffs and higher unemployment, signalling an easing bias. Barclays brought forward its previously expected September 2026 cut to 2025, while others like BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank also revised forecasts for cuts in September and December. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan reaffirmed expectations of a September cut, aligning with market sentiment; BofA and Morgan Stanley remain cautious, citing ongoing inflation pressures and economic rebound, but note that further labour market softening could prompt easing. At the time of writing, money markets are pricing an 85% probability of a 25bps cut on September 17th (vs around 75% before Powell’s Jackson Hole speech), and through to the end of the year, are now fully discounting two rate reductions.Canadian Jobs Report (Fri):The BoC will use the upcoming labour market data to help guide its future rate path, though it is only one factor, as the Bank remains on hold to assess the impact of US trade policies. In July, rates were left at 2.75% in a unanimous decision, with some members noting sufficient support for the economy while others saw a potential need for more. This 2.75% level is the centre of the BoC's neutral estimate, suggesting limited room for cuts, depending on tariff effects. The latest BoC minutes showed that the labour market remained soft. Job losses were concentrated in sectors that are reliant on trade. Employment had continued to grow in the rest of the economy. While job growth had picked up in June, the unemployment rate was 6.9%, with some categories, such as youth unemployment, markedly higher since the beginning of the year. Some members expressed concern about the risks of further increases in the unemployment rate and the implications for households if the trade conflict were to escalate or the effects were to spread through the economy more broadly.This article originally appeared on Newsquawk This article was written by Newsquawk Analysis at investinglive.com.

These Chinese PMIs come from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP).For August 2025:Manufacturing PMI 49.4, a slight missexpected 49.5, prior 49.3this is the fifth consecutive month in contraction for the official manufacturing PMIdomestic demand remains disappointing, weighed down by factors such asthe heavily indebted property sector and falling or, at best, flat prices for homesUS tariffs hitting exportslocal government debt recent extreme weather/floodingNon-Manufacturing (includes services and construction) PMI 50.3, in line with central estimates and a jump from Julyexpected 50.3, prior 50.1Composite 50.5prior 50.2---Over the next few days we'll get the 'unofficial' Caixin/S&P manufacturing (on Monday September 1) and non-manufacturing (on Wednesday September 3) PMIs for August.more to come---Earlier big news:US Federal Appeals court rules that most of Trump's tariffs are illegalThe legal fight is not over (see the post) but perhaps China will just wait it out on tariffs. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

On Friday evening, the Federal Circuit court struck down the vast majority of US President Donald Trump's tariffs, ruling them illegal under laws that give Congress control of tariffs and tax policy.The 7-4 decision rules that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act was used improperly in the case of fentanyl tariffs against Mexico/Canada/China and for the broader reciprocal tariffs.This isn't a huge surprise as the justification he used was a 1977 U.S. law that gives the President broad powers to regulate commerce after declaring a national emergency in response to an “unusual and extraordinary threat” from outside the United States. Traditionally, these have only been used to sanction places like Iran and North Korea.The majority zeroed in on the text of the IEEPA and that Congress has historically used words like “duty” or “tariff” when it meant to delegate tariff authority, but IEEPA only lets the President “regulate… importation.” Critically though, the decision was stayed until October 14 for appeals and the case is surely headed to the Supreme Court. The case was also referred back to the Court of International Trade to decide how broad the injunction should be and whether tariffs should continue to be collected.Notably, the tariffs on Brazil over Bolsonaro and the tariffs on India over Russian oil were not at issue in the case and not part of the ruling. Still, this would totally de-fang the tariff threat and completely change the game. It could also set up a showdown if Republican majorities in Congress are forced to vote on this, as many have spent their entire careers arguing in favor of free trade.Article 1 of the US Constitution also says:The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States.Now this will be a big test of the Supreme Court. It's not a clear all-or-nothing decision as they could find some middle ground that would tighten up tariffs but the odds favor the removal of tariffs now and that will set up an interesting start to the week. TThe cleanest trade on it that I see is anything tied to stronger global growth:CommoditiesCommodity currenciesEquities, particularly international and small capIndustrialsEmerging markets, particularly commodity exportersBonds are messy as removing tariffs is deflationary (and gives the Fed a mandate to cut) but stronger global growth could be inflationary, and less tariff revenue hurts the US fiscal picture This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The US dollar ends the month lower. Will September be the same?Baker Hughes US oil rig count 412 vs 408 expectedDallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for July +1.9% vs +3.4% priorJudge did not rule on the dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook todayGold rises back to the upper bound of a 4-month long range. Will we get a breakout?Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker for Q3 growth jumps to 3.47%% vs 2.18% priorNext week's ADP report might be the most important of the yearS&P 500 and Nasdaq extend losses as Nvidia drags the markets lowerUniversity of Michigan consumer sentiment (final) for August 58.2 vs 58.6 prelimNVIDIA Weakness Persists While SPY Holds FirmerCanada GDP for June -0.1% vs 0.1% expectedUS Core PCE for July YoY 2.9% vs 2.9% expectedIt's been a pretty quiet session on the data and news side, but a lively one on the markets front. The US PCE was of course the main highlight of the day and the data came in line with expectations across the board. We had also the Canadian GDP which showed a bigger contraction than expected in Q2, but that's old news as we are almost at the end of Q3 with the markets focusing on Q4. We started to get more action in the markets once the US stock markets opened. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq sold off dragged lower by Nvidia losses. The catalyst was a WSJ report saying that Alibaba developed a new AI chip to help fill Nvidia void in China. The Chinese are of course trying to make their own AI chips given the interference from Trump's adiministration. While Nvidia fell, Alibaba obviously rose.The selloff in the major stock indices led to a wave of risk-off flows. We saw gold and short-term Treasuries rallying, and the US dollar and bitcoin falling. You can also throw in there some month-end flows. Nevertheless, it was mostly noise and the data next week will be the ultimate trend setter. At the end of the session, Fed's Daly posted on her Linkedin account that it will soon be time to recalibrate policy. She expects the tariff-driven inflation to be short-lived and therefore favours lowering interest rates to help the labour market, which in her view is slowing. It looks like a September cut is a done deal no matter what. It might eventually be just a one and done, but they really want to cut in September and then see what happens with the data. If they cut into strength, it could be another policy mistake...As a reminder, it's a holiday in the US on Monday for Labor Day. Have a nice weekend all! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy.Both mandates are in tensions now.Tariffs are pushing inflation higher and the labour market is slowing.I think tariff-relates price increases will be a one-off.It will take time before we know that for certain but we can't wait for perfect certainty without risking harm to the labour market.It's funny how they avoid using the word "transitory". Anyway, Fed's Daly is just repeating that she expects the tariff-driven inflation to be short-lived and therefore favours lowering interest rates to help the labour market which in her view is slowing. It looks like a September cut is a done deal no matter what. It might eventually be just a one and done, but they really want to cut in September and then see what happens with the data.If they cut into strength, it could be another policy mistake... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US dollar will likely finish the day at the lows today. It's been a rollercoaster week with the greenback erasing most of the losses triggered by Powell's dovish tilt just to give the gains back heading into the weekend.Today there was no meaningful catalyst for the downside as the PCE data came out in line with expectations. We could argue that the selloff in the stock market might have had a part in dollar's weakness but it could also be just month-end flows as the momentum picked up going into the London Fix. Nevertheless, the focus has now turned to September. It's going to be a huge month for markets. We will get the NFP and CPI reports and of course the FOMC meeting. Right now, the markets are pretty sure that we will get a cut no matter what with 89% probability. The total pricing for the year stands around 55 bps, which is two rate cuts.This change of heart was triggered by the last NFP report which came out softer than expected with big negative revisions to the prior figures. The Fed made it pretty clear that they are more focused on the labour market than inflation because they expect the pick up in inflation to be, wait for it, "transitory". The NFP is going to be key for the dovish expectations but the market will likely start positioning before that based on other inputs like the ISM PMIs and especially the ADP report. Next week is going to set the trend at least until the US CPI. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve and support the dollar. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being priced in and weighing on the greenback.Some would argue that all of this doesn't matter and the erosion of Fed independence will keep weighing on the dollar. I personally think that this Fed independence narrative is noise (for now). You could also argue that even if we get a soft report, the rate cuts will improve economic activity in the next quarters and the hawkish repricing in rates will eventually be bullish for the dollar. This is something I keep in mind, but I would wait for the actual rate cut to start experimenting with this idea and then the data will either confirm or invalidate it.Anyway, let's take things at a time and focus on the next week's data...On the monthly chart, we can see that we are trading inside a rising channel. We got a bounce from the lower bound back in July following a strong NFP report, and since then we basically just ranged waiting for more clarity on monetary policy. Technically, we either rally from here or break below the lower bound and extend the losses at least until the 90.00 handle. On the daily chart, we can see more clearly that the downtrend that began at the start of the year, bottomed in July when we bounced from the lower bound of the channel and broke above the downward trendline. Since then we basically ranged, even though we had a short term rally heading into the July's FOMC decision that was later erased by the soft NFP report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 411Total rig count 536 vs 538 priorGas rigs 119 vs 122 priorThis is not a market moving indicator as it's very lagging. Oil rigs count is of course correlated to oil prices. When oil prices trend upwards, oil rigs count increases, and when oil prices trend downwards, oil rigs count decreases. In the picture below, you can see that oil prices LEAD oil rigs count. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

1 month annualised +1.9% vs +3.4% prior6 months annualised +2.6% vs +2.8% prior12 month annualised +2.7% vs +2.7 priorThe 1 month annualised rate is very volatile, so don't mistake that for inflation coming down. The 6 month and 12 month annualised rates are a better gauge of the trend. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Judge asked more time to preserve the status quo while she considers the merits of the legal fight. The Fed today said in a court filing that it takes no position in the lawsuit but that it wants a "prompt ruling" to remove "the existing cloud of uncertainty". This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The upside in gold has been supported since Powell's dovish tilt last Friday. Inflation expectations kept on climbing, while Treasury yields fell into new lows. That caused real yields to fall, giving further boost to gold prices. Today we are seeing a stronger push to the upside although we haven't got any meaningful catalyst. This looks more like one of those last parabolic pushes before a bigger pullback, but time will tell. The focus is now on the US labour market data that will culminate with the NFP report next Friday. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve and weigh on gold. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets with a third cut by year-end being priced in and giving gold another boost.In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing given their dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections.On the daily chart, we can see that gold is now trading at the upper bound of the 4-month long range. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop back into the 3,245 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high.On the 1 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent bullish trend triggered by Powell last Friday. We got a bounce on the upward trendline where buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a breakout. If we were to get another pullback, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline again, while the sellers will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,245 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today, so even if we stay above the resistance, we might not get much follow through. Also, it's not shown on the chart but the latest rally is diverging with momentum indicators which could be another signal of a potential pullback. Next week is going to be big for gold as interest rates expectations will be influenced greatly by the US labour market data. A hawkish repricing is likely to weigh on gold, while an even more dovish outlook should give the precious metal a boost into a new all-time high. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is no universal recipe for success in trading. However, there are some baselines you should follow to have a better shot at gaining profit. You can learn these vital reference points from your own mistakes—or choose the easier way and study the experience of others. In this article, Kar Yong Ang, financial analyst at Octa broker and successful trader, names three fundamental rules of trading that he learned the hard way—and wished he knew at the start of his journey. At the age of 21, Kar Yong Ang started trading with just $500 in his account balance. In two years, he turned it into $13,000. Today, he is a financially independent trader and investor, an expert analyst at Octa broker, a speaker, and a mentor who has coached hundreds of traders across Southeast Asia. Despite his successful career in the financial markets, Kar Yong acquired his trading skills and knowledge the hard way—from his own wins and losses. Below are some of the key things about trading that he wished he had known sooner.1. Use risk management to mitigate stressMany traders treat risk management tools as optional and fall back on them only on special occasions—for example, in times of increased market volatility. Unfortunately, this approach has some significant drawbacks. It may not affect the outcomes immediately, but in the long run, the 'intuitive' trading draws your energy and exposes you to stress. What's more, the shorter the timeframe you're trading on, the more significant the probability of a single drastic price change that can ruin your session. The stop-loss and take-profit orders make traders feel more confident and think clearly. The basic risk management tools allow them to put the nerve-wracking price drops out of the equation and make their sessions more time-efficient.To empower traders even more, Octa broker implemented advanced risk management features into its proprietary trading platform, OctaTrader. Trailing stop and break even tools allow traders to set up dynamic, market-sensitive exit points to secure the gains or eliminate the risk of financial loss within a particular trade. 2. Try to keep things simpleIn most cases, a simple, logically sound strategy will outperform a more sophisticated but less mentally accessible one. For most traders, considering factors such as price action, basic support and resistance zones, and volume can be enough to start making progress. Simpler strategies have the advantage of being easier to execute, given the trader's self-discipline. The more steps a strategy involves, the more room for doubt, error, and emotional interference. When the approach is simple and well-tested, execution becomes automatic, and consistency improves. According to Kar Yong, engaging with a reliable and globally regulated broker like Octa is one of the most crucial steps a trader can take to simplify his or her journey. Since its foundation in 2011, Octa has offered transparent fees and trading conditions and avoided any hidden tricks when it came to client relationships. Octa's trading platform, OctaTrader, aims to simplify the trading process by giving traders all the necessary tools within a seamless, customisable trading ecosystem. OctaTrader combines powerful AI tools and actionable expert knowledge to facilitate well-informed, low-stress decision-making.3. Follow the three-fold process For many years, Kar Yong has been rigorously following the same process throughout his trading sessions. It consists of three phases: direction, setup, and context. Along with the use of risk management tools, this framework helped him make his trading more consistent and reduce the cognitive load.1. Direction: define the market trendIt defines whether it is time to buy or sell. At this step, traders identify the dominant movement—uptrend, downtrend, or range. Direction is often determined using price action, trendlines, or momentum indicators.2. Setup: find an entry pointAfter defining the direction, Kar Yong switches his attention to the setup, or the specific conditions or patterns that indicate it's time to act. These conditions include breakouts, pullbacks to moving averages, candlestick formations, or support/resistance bounces. Allowing for the technical precision, the setup phase refines the entry point. Given that, the setup must align with the chosen direction: many losing trades come from jumping on setups that go against the prevailing market movement.3. Context: look for factors that can affect the tradeContext is the broader environment around the setup—volatility levels, time of day, proximity to news releases, key support/resistance zones, or overall market sentiment. For example, a textbook setup might appear just minutes before a major central bank announcement. In that context, the setup becomes less reliable due to expected market turbulence.It is worth mentioning that all three elements must align. When this framework is applied with discipline, it acts as a mental checklist—keeping traders focused, methodical, and less vulnerable to emotional or impulsive decisions.ConclusionAs a trading professional with a long and successful track record in the markets, Kar Yong Ang values experience over immediate success. In trading, one of the most important prerequisites of success is perseverance and seeing every trade as an opportunity to improve. Having said that, traders can significantly reduce the burden of beginner's mistakes by using modern trading tools such as Octa's proprietary platform. It empowers both emerging and seasoned traders by providing them with a seamless trading ecosystem that enables better performance and less stress. On top of that, Octa additionally reduces the traders' stress by offering seamless, fast, and efficient withdrawals, which helps the broker establish trusting relationships with its clients.Disclaimer: This article does not contain or constitute investment advice or recommendations and does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. Any actions taken based on this content are at your sole discretion and risk—Octa does not accept any liability for any resulting losses or consequences.About OctaOcta is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 61 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools. The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including improving educational infrastructure and funding short-notice relief projects to support local communities.Since its foundation, Octa has won more than 100 awards, including the 'Most Reliable Broker Global 2024' award from Global Forex Awards and the 'Best Mobile Trading Platform 2024' award from Global Brand Magazine. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

From the agency: the GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 3.5 percent on August 29, up from 2.2 percent on August 26. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 2.2 percent and 4.4 percent, respectively, to 2.3 percent and 6.1 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.36 percentage points to 0.59 percentage points.The next GDPNow update is Tuesday, September 2. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The ADP data has diverged with the NFP many times in the past. We've seen countless times the market moving on the ADP data just to get caught on the wrong side by the NFP report a couple of days later. The last time that happened was in July when the ADP showed -33K jobs loss and the day later the NFP came out at +147K vs +110K expected.After the latest revisions to the NFP data though, it looks like the ADP was the one showing the true trend in private payroll employment. You can see it better in the two pictures below (h/t @stevehou0 on X) showing the trend in NFP and ADP before and after revisions.We can see that although the two are not perfectly correlated, the ADP has been more accurate in capturing the trend. In 2025, the labour market froze due to the tariffs mess of course, and the uptrend seen in the last part of 2024 turned into a downtrend due to uncertainty and growth fears. That trend might turn around again given that the uncertainty from tariffs is now behind us and expectations for rate cuts could improve business activity. Fed's Waller on ADPAnother interesting fact is that Fed's Waller yesterday mentioned the ADP data in his speech. Below you can read the excerpt:I also look at timely data that Federal Reserve staff maintains in collaboration with the employment services firm ADP to construct a measure of weekly payroll employment, which covers about 20 percent of the nation's private workforce. This measure is comparable to the one ADP publishes. The current May–July contour for the staff measure of ADP-based private employment is broadly consistent with that of the Current Employment Statistics numbers. And in the weeks after the July jobs report's reference period, preliminary estimates from ADP show continued deterioration.He said that the weekly payroll employment data that they construct from ADP continued to show deterioration after the July's jobs report's reference period. To sum upThe ADP report next week might be the most important of the year as market participants will certainly pay even more attention to it after the latest findings. This might translate into big moves across the markets as traders position into the NFP report coming up the day after. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are getting dragged lower as Nvidia shares extend losses. The catalyst was the WSJ report saying that Alibaba developed a new AI chip to help fill Nvidia void in China. The Chinese are of course trying to make their own AI chips given the interference from Trump's adiministration. While Nvidia is falling, Alibaba shares are obviously rallying on this latest news.In the bigger picture, the stock market will move more on what happens with the US labour market data next week and the Fed. But in the short-term, this could provide a pullback, especially given month-end and data risk. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 61.7Current conditions 61.7 vs 60.9 prelimPrior 68.0Expectations 55.9 vs 57.2 prelimPrior 57.7Inflation expectations:1 year 4.8% vs 4.9% prelimPrior 4.5%5 year 3.5% vs 3.9% prelimPrior 3.4%The data is slightly lower than preliminary estimates and although inflation expectations are still higher than the prior month, they got revised lower.Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu notes: "Perceptions of many aspects of the economy slipped. Buying conditions for durable goods subsided to their lowest reading in a year. Expectations for business conditions and labor markets contracted in August as well. That said, expectations for personal finances held steady this month, albeit at relatively subdued levels relative to a year ago." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

NVIDIA Weakness Persists While SPY Holds Firmer – A Possible Rotation?Even after the much-anticipated NVIDIA earnings, the order flow picture is telling two very different stories between the stock itself and the broader S&P 500 index.SPY (S&P 500 ETF) is showing resilience. Despite trading slightly lower in pre-market at 647.64 (-0.2%), sentiment remains bullish. Option order flow carries a positive tilt, with 1.6 million in positive delta volume, and institutional money flow is also aligned on the bullish side. Importantly, the option fear gauge is subdued, with the cost of hedging downside risk at just 1.1%, even below the normal 1.5%.By contrast, NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to struggle in the wake of its latest report. Shares are trading -1.1% lower in pre-market at 178.25, with sentiment clearly bearish. Option delta flow is negative (-1.1 million), while there is no sign of big money inflows. The cost of hedging NVDA has eased to 3.6%, but that remains higher than broad market levels, showing lingering caution.What This Means for TradersThis divergence could reflect a rotation of capital out of single-stock exposure in NVIDIA and into broader index coverage via SPY. While NVIDIA sellers are still present and buyers have not stepped back in, the index as a whole is not reflecting the same degree of downside pressure.This tells us two things:NVIDIA’s high-expectation earnings have triggered incremental selling rather than panic, with investors trimming exposure.Broader equity flows are still leaning constructive, with traders hedging less aggressively against the S&P 500.The discrepancy in sentiment between NVDA and SPY highlights that while one stock can drive headlines, the overall market remains more balanced. Traders should watch whether NVIDIA weakness begins to drag down the broader tech sector further, or if rotation into the index helps cushion downside for the S&P 500.As always, this analysis is decision support, not financial advice. Trade at your own risk. Visit investingLive.com for additional views. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.