It's a rough tumble for the pound as 30-year yields in the UK blow up further, rising to 5.68% - its highest since 1998. This is going to put mounting pressure on Starmer and Reeves to figure out a plan to try and calm down markets and bolster confidence again.The move higher in long-end yields has been one that is going on for a while. But as usually with cases like this, the pain point will come when it comes. And it looks like today is that day.Just be mindful that this sort of blowing up in long-end yields is not just isolated to the UK. We're also seeing similar blow ups in the euro area and the US as well. From last week: The US yield curve continues to steepen post-Jackson Hole10-year yields in the US are also seen up 4 bps to 4.270% today and 30-year yields are up nearly 5 bps to 4.965%. That's helping to underpin USD/JPY as well with the pair up 0.7% to 148.20 currently.In terms of currency reactions, the pound is bearing the brunt of the pain here with GBP/USD down 0.5% to 1.3483 on the day. Other major currencies are also down slightly against the dollar now to kick start the session.If anything, the signal here that the blow up in yields is starting to hit broader markets will be a negative for risk sentiment. So, keep an eye out on a spillover impact to equities later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx -0.1%Germany DAX -0.2%France CAC 40 +0.3%UK FTSE -0.2%Spain IBEX -0.1%Italy FTSE MIB -0.1%French stocks are the exception, holding slightly higher to start the day at least. But relative to their peers, they are the ones lagging behind after having been pulled down late last month amid political worries. US futures are also looking more tepid, with S&P 500 futures down 0.1% currently. Euro area inflation will feature later today but that won't do much to move the needle for European equities. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Fundamental OverviewGold surged into a new all-time high today after a strong run that started on Friday. There was no meaningful catalyst for the latest surge which might indicate that it was just a technical squeeze. Nevertheless, real yields have been falling steadily since Powell’s dovish tilt, so that provided a tailwind for higher gold prices. The focus is now on the US labour market data that will culminate with the NFP report on Friday. Strong data might take the probability for a September cut towards a 50/50 chance but will certainly see a more hawkish repricing further down the curve and could weigh on gold. Soft data, on the other hand, will likely see traders increasing the dovish bets giving gold another boost. In the bigger picture, gold should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid Fed easing given their dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations will likely keep on triggering corrections.Gold Technical Analysis – Daily TimeframeOn the daily chart, we can see that gold eventually broke out of the 4-month long range and rallied all the way up to a new all-time high. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the high to position for a drop back into the 3,245 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs.Gold Technical Analysis – 4 hour TimeframeOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,245 support next.Gold Technical Analysis – 1 hour TimeframeOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor upward trendline acting as support. The buyers will likely keep on leaning on it to push into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target the pullback into the next trendline around the 3,438 level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.Upcoming CatalystsToday we get the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job Openings data. On Thursday, we get the US ADP, the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US ISM Services PMI. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP report. Watch the video below This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the European session, the main highlight is going to be the Eurozone Flash CPI report. The headline number Y/Y is expected at 2.0% vs. 2.0% prior, while the Core measure is seen at 2.2% vs. 2.3% prior. The ECB is highly likely to have already ended the rate cut cycle and the next move could even be a rate hike as ECB's Schnabel mentioned today. The market is pricing just 6 bps of easing by year-end and 15 bps by the end of 2026. So, we will need significant reasons to price in more rate cuts. Today's inflation report might not influence expectations much unless we get notable deviations.In the American session, the focus will switch to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The latest S&P Global US PMIs were very hot and the commentary even mentioned that the data is more in line with rate hikes than rate cuts. Economic activity continues to pick up and inflationary pressures intensify. The ISM is expected at 49.0 vs 48.0 prior.The main event this week is of course the NFP report but the sentiment and positioning into Friday's release will likely be shaped by the ISM and ADP data, so that's something to be aware of. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures -0.2%French CAC 40 futures -0.1%UK FTSE futures +0.1%This comes with US futures also seen down 0.1% with Wall Street set to return back to action later today. The DAX posted modest gains yesterday but is looking to shave off some of that at the open today. For broader market sentiment, the US ISM manufacturing PMI might offer something to work with in terms of data releases. So, do keep an eye out for that. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Rates are already mildly accommodativeInflation risks are tilted to the upsideTariffs are on balance inflationaryLess worried about exchange rateGlobal rate hikes may come earlier than people thinkIt looks like the summer break is coming to an end and we'll see more commentary from ECB policymakers before we get to the next meeting on 11 September. As things stand, traders are not pricing in any more rate cuts for the year by the ECB. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Need to be wary of outlook and risks for next rate hikeThere are both upside, downside risks to the economy and pricesIf economy and prices move in line with forecasts, then can raise rates graduallyDifficult to pinpoint to level of underlying inflationHave to make a decision not just by looking at whether underlying inflation can hit 2% target, but also consider upside and downside risks to our baseline scenarioAs for timing of rate hike, we want to ensure that it is not premature nor is it too lateThese are all mostly token remarks by Himino. His other comments from earlier can be found here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Gold is up another 0.6% today as buyers continue to keep poised in chasing a major breakout move to start September trading. Things are continuing to fall into place for gold and after a period of consolidation since the end of May, is this where we see the technical side also play ball?The April high earlier this year stalled at the $3,500 mark and buyers have been biding their time ever since. After a couple of tests of the 100-day moving average (red line), we're seeing buyers look to prove their mettle again this week. But again, they now run into a key challenge of having to firmly break above the $3,500 level.Besides the fundamental factors of seeing Fed easing prospects, central bank buying, ETFs playing catch up, and dollar disdain, stagflation risks are also potentially adding to another key driver for higher gold prices.Even though we're not quite seeing a material impact from tariffs passthrough on US inflation just yet, market players are still reserving some caution for now. Market-based inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years continue to rise ever since April with the earlier spike at the end of July being the highest in a year.If the trend continues and we do see more evidence of tariffs passthrough on prices, that is going to be a key development to be mindful of. And it could be one that sends the next rally in gold into overdrive.As for downside factors, just be wary that September is usually a poor month for gold and precious metals historically. But again, there aren't that many Septembers that have quite the focus like this one on US data as well as the Fed. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The images tell a lot about the message that they are trying to send. And Xi himself is not shying away when he took to the stage at the summit. He vowed to oppose "hegemonism" and "bullying practices" in international affairs, which is a jibe at the US for sure.The summit is serving as a symbolic showcase for China and Russia to reaffirm to the world that they are still maintaining a close rapport. Video footage shows both Xi and Putin smiling and warming up to each other, as opposed to their typically more serious demeanour in general. It's all for the cameras of course but if anything, it shows that both sides definitely know what kind of message they want to be sending to the US at this point in time. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that Japan's prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, is wanting to make arrangements to instruct ministers to compile economic measures in order to address key concerns such as inflation and Trump's tariffs. The directive is said to be as early as this week.Despite all the backlash, Ishiba continues to stay on in his role for now. And a lot of these steps are to try and repair the damage and trust. Many lawmakers are pressuring him to step down but so far, Ishiba has at least seen a rebound in public support. Japan's ruling LDP party will be finalising a report later today to review their defeat at the upper house elections from July. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Gold hovers near $3,500 on Fed cut bets; yen weakens past 147.70 as BOJ signals distant hikes.Goldman Sachs: Trump may pivot to new tariff tools if courts reject IEEPA-based hikesUSD/JPY back above 147.60, USD stronger across the majors board, while gold shakes it offGold to a record high above US$3505Japan trade negotiator Akazawa says no date set yet for his next visit to the USBoJ's Himino says despite 3 rate hikes inflation still high, real rates still lowAustralian net exports contribute +0.1% to Q2 GDP (economic growth)PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1089 (vs. estimate at 7.1325)China’s CSI 300 surges 25% as Beijing pushes reforms to build trust, and a bull marketUBS sticks to its gold US$3700 forecast. Shorter-term, ANZ say watch the jobs report.There will be a digital yen in 2026 - Japan Post Bank in major blockchain payments pushChinese media reports say Foxconn is ramping up wages ahead of iPhone 17South Korea August consumer price index marks slowest rise y/y since November 2024New Zealand terms of trade for Q2 2025 surges by +4.1% q/q (expected +1.9%)Morgan Stanley tips Fed for a dovish slam-dunk: three or more consecutive rate cuts comingUBS tips a Fed ‘four-peat’: four straight rate cuts at the next four meetingsECB rate cuts are over says Dolenc, cites stable inflation, EU-US trade deal certaintyFriday's US jobs report (NFP) is critical for the short-term direction of the US dollarEconomic calendar in Asia Tuesday, September 2, 2025 (ps. I can offer you insider info)Bessent says he is confident the US Supreme Court will not trash Trump's tariffsinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap: Precious metals shine on Labor DayGold extended its rally, topping US$3,500 before easing just shy of the round number, supported by safe-haven inflows and expectations the Federal Reserve will soon lower interest rates.The yen weakened as the US dollar pushed broadly higher, with USD/JPY reaching above 147.70. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino said further rate hikes would eventually be warranted, though the timing remains unclear. Separately, Japan’s top trade negotiator Akazawa rejected reports that Washington pressed for lower agricultural tariffs and reiterated calls for Trump to cut auto levies.Looking ahead, traders will watch for Trump’s scheduled announcement at 2pm US Eastern time Tuesday (6pm GMT). Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.25%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.1%Shanghai Composite -0.4%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.2% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says most of this year’s tariff increases hinge on legal authority that could yet be overturned in the courts, but it expects the Trump administration would quickly pivot to other tools to sustain its protectionist push.Analysts note that tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) account for around 8 percentage points of the 11pp rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate so far this year. Should the courts ultimately rule against the measure, Goldman expects the administration to fall back on alternative legal authorities.One option would be Section 122, which permits tariffs of up to 15% for a period of seven months. Another would be Section 301, the mechanism previously used against China in 2018–2019, which could allow Washington to replace country-specific levies now imposed under IEEPA. However, Goldman cautions that launching 301 investigations across all trading partners would be cumbersome and might leave smaller economies untouched if the Supreme Court invalidates the IEEPA-based tariffs.In such a scenario, the administration could lean more heavily on sectoral tariffs instead. Goldman estimates these will form the bulk of further tariff hikes expected over the next 18 months, ultimately lifting the effective tariff rate by about 17pp compared with the start of the year.-Background to this:US Federal Appeals court rules that most of Trump's tariffs are illegalTariffs quagmire dominates the setting to start the weekBessent says he is confident the US Supreme Court will not trash Trump's tariffs This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold has hit a record high above USD3500 and is just below there as I update.Cited are expectations for rate cuts ahead from the US Federal Reserve. This should weaken the USD and boost gold.On that 'weaken the USD' though .... the dollar is higher against other FX here in Asia, with JPY a notable under performer. Reasoning for both gold and the dollar higher include a 'safe haven' bid in the face global economic and political uncertainty. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Gold is underpinned by expectations for lower short term rates. Earlier:UBS sticks to its gold US$3700 forecast. Shorter-term, ANZ say watch the jobs report. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UBS expects the Federal Reserve to deliver four straight rate cuts starting in September, totaling 100 basis points, as inflation holds near target and labor market risks grow. The bank cites July’s tame PCE data, weakening job demand, and increasingly dovish Fed commentary as reasons the FOMC is poised to act.-More detail:UBS has forecast that the Federal Reserve will deliver 100 basis points of easing across its next four policy meetings, starting in September, as cooling inflation and a weakening labor market give policymakers room to act.The bank points to July’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which showed core inflation edging up to 2.9% year-on-year and headline steady at 2.6%. Both were in line with consensus estimates and suggest that price pressures are contained rather than accelerating. Cooling energy prices and steady goods inflation are offsetting stickier services costs, while slowing shelter inflation is also helping to cap overall price growth.UBS argues that the bigger risk now lies in the jobs market. Although unemployment remains low, recent indicators point to softer demand for labor, and Fed minutes show officials expect the jobless rate to rise above the natural rate by year-end and stay elevated through 2027. Chair Jerome Powell has warned that labor conditions could deteriorate rapidly if layoffs pick up, a risk UBS believes outweighs residual inflation concerns.The case for cuts is also reinforced by Fed commentary and the shifting balance within the FOMC. July’s meeting saw two dissenting votes in favor of a cut—the first such split among governors in more than three decades—while Powell, Vice Chair Williams, and Governor Waller have all struck a more dovish tone in recent speeches. Waller last week explicitly backed a September cut, even leaving open the possibility of a larger move if job market data weaken further.With inflation near target, growth resilient but moderating, and policymakers increasingly focused on employment risks, UBS expects the Fed to restart its easing cycle next meeting, and to cut rates at each of its next four meetings:September 16 & 17, 2025 (next meeting)October 28 & 29, 2025December 9 & 10, 2025January 27 & 28, 2026 (first scheduled meeting in 2026) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The European Central Bank has likely finished cutting interest rates, according to Primoz Dolenc, Slovenia’s acting central bank governor. He told Delo newspaper that the ECB’s July Governing Council meeting concluded the easing cycle was over and no new developments since then justify a change. Current policy is seen as sufficient to reach the inflation target. Dolenc noted that uncertainty has diminished after the EU secured a trade deal with the US, fixing a 15% tariff on most exports. While tariffs are slightly higher than June forecasts, he said the impact on growth and inflation is minimal.The info comes via a Bloomberg report (Bloomberg is gated).---The ECB left rates steady in July after a year of reductions and is expected to do the same next week (its next meeting is September 10 and 11), with markets no longer pricing in further cuts this year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The U.S. dollar faces further downside risk if Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report delivers another disappointment, MUFG Bank analyst Lee Hardman said in a note. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster bets the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts at its September 17 meeting, with a 50-basis-point reduction on the table, he added.Markets are currently pricing in a 25-bp cut this month and more than 100 bps of easing by September 2026. Only a substantially stronger-than-expected jobs report would be enough to dissuade the Fed from easing next month, Hardman said.---The NFP is due on Friday September 5 at 8.30 am US Eastern time: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data economic calendar here in Asia is a bit patchy for the session ahead, there isn't much likely to move around markets too much upon release. I can offer you some insider information though! That inflation data listed from Australia, due at 0100 GMT from TD-MI ... well, let's just keep this between ourselves but here it is:Australian private inflation survey -0.3% m/m (prior +0.9) & 2.8% y/y (prior 2.9%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent with wide-ranging comments from an inter view with Reuters. In brief:Says he’s confident that Supreme Court will uphold Trump tariffsThere are other statutes that could be used to justify tariffs but they are not as efficient, not as powerfulU.S. is making headway with Europe on need to crack down on India over Russian oil purchasesPlays down significance of China-hosted meeting in Shanghai of leaders from non-Western countries as ‘performative’Accuses India and China of being ‘bad actors’ in Ukraine by fueling Russian war machineEarlier from Bessent:Bessent: There is a very good chance Miran is seated at Fed before Sept meetingBessent also did the mean girls thing to Cook:Bessent says that Lisa Cook hasn't denied allegations of mortgage fraudWow, bitchy!-On tariffs, Bessent is referring to a US Court binning them. But that decision will go to appeal:US Federal Appeals court rules that most of Trump's tariffs are illegalTariffs quagmire dominates the setting to start the week This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bessent says that Lisa Cook hasn't denied allegations of mortgage fraudBessent: There is a very good chance Miran is seated at Fed before Sept meetingSilver rises to the highest in 14 yearsTrump says drug companies need to show data on effectiveness of covid vaccineWhat assets performed the best in AugustMarkets:WTI crude up 68-cents to $64.61Bonds closedS&P 500 futures up 0.2%Gold up $30 to $3476GBP leads, JPY lagsThe US/Canadian holiday kept a lid on trading on Monday, though the market did have to react to a US court blocking Trump's tariffs. The reaction so far suggests the market is taking a 'wait and see' approach as it will work its way though the courts. There was some mild risk appetite with NZD making modest gains and the euro climbing. US stock futures got a lift as well but it was nothing substantial. Eyes were on political risk in the UK and France but that didn't stop the euro from steadily grinding to the upside.The standout performer of the day was precious metals, with silver particularly strong and rising to the highest in 14 years. Gold also gained for the fifth day and is just $25 from the all-time record set earlier this year.News flow was light as you would expect on the holiday but Trump tweeted about Covid vaccines and the trading relationship with India. Neither could be seen as a market mover and there are some murmurs about his health as he keeps an unusually low profile. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.