WSJ Fedwatcher Nick Timiraos is out with a quick take on the jobs report. He doesn't get too much into the details but says: A sharp slowdown in job growth this summer likely seals the case for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its meeting in two weeks.Notable is what he doesn't say, which is that a 50 basis point cut is on the table. The market has bumped up 50 bps pricing to 14% now.Timiraos also write that the jobs report "further muddies the debate over the pace of cuts after [September]. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The best look at how the market is repricing the Fed curve is in two-year yields and it's a clear picture here. They're down 10 basis points today to the lowest since the Liberation Day spike. Beyond that you need to go all the way back to 2022 for lower yields.At that time, the market wasn't sure whether Trump's tariffs would be bad for growth or spike inflation (or both). Now we're getting indications that the growth and jobs picture is getting hit first, which is going to prompt deep rate cuts from the Fed. For the year ahead, we're now pricing in 136 bps in easing, which would get Fed funds close to 3%.The nightmare scenario is that the inflation from tariffs comes later and the Fed can't cut. That's going to make future inflation readings critical. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil prices are dropping after a report from Bloomberg saying that Saudi Arabia wants OPEC+ to boost output at the September meeting. Given that and softening US economic data and it's a bad mix for oil, which could have a 5-handle soon. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Non-Farm Payrolls +22K vs +75K expectedPrivate Payrolls +38K vs +75K expected. Prior 83kManufacturing Payrolls: -12K vs -5K expected. Prior -11k.Government Payrolls -16K vs -10K priorUnemployment Rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected. Prior 4.2%Average Earnings MoM +0.3% vs +0.3% expected. Prior 0.3%Average Earnings YoY +3.7% vs +3.7% expected. Prior 3.9%Average Workweek Hours 34.2K vs 34.3 expected Prior 34.3Labor Force Participation Rate 62.2% vs 62.3% priorU6 Underemployment 8.1% vs 7.7% priorTwo-month net revision -22KThe US dollar is down across the board on this with USD/JPY down a half-cent. Gold is near a new record as the market prices in more Fed rate cuts on this.The market is now fully priced for a September rate cut with about a 3% chance of a 50 bps cut. The larger action is further out the curve where the October meeting is now up to 80% for a cut from about 60% beforehand. For the year ahead, there is 130 bps of easing priced in.Looking at that chart, there is a very clear step down in May which isn't a big coincidence as it was the first month after Liberation Day.The three-month average of jobs creation is just 29K. The stock market is teetering between taking this as a sign that the economy is slow but not terrible versus fear that a recession is coming.I was worried we would see some manipulation in the data after the BLS head was fired but it's hard to see that in today's number. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was -40.8KUnemployment rate 7.1% vs 7.0% priorFull time jobs -6.0KPart time jobs -59.7KParticipation rate 65.1%Avg hourly wages for permanent workers +3.6%This is the worst reading since January 2022. We're now pricing in a 90% chance of a BOC cut in September from 75% beforehand. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it is experiencing “technical difficulties” ahead of the August employment report. The website says: “Sorry, we are currently experiencing technical difficulties. All BLS data retrieval tools will be available as soon as we’ve resolved the problem.”It's not clear this will cause a delay but it could be difficult to find all the data in the report. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Happy Friday.Given the firing of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics chief is Erika McEntarfer last month, analyzing this report is a whole different game. I tend to think that there isn't going to be a wholesale manipulation, at least not right away but if we get a +250K reading and falling unemployment will the market believe it?In any case, the consensus is +75K with unemployment ticking up to 4.3% from 4.2%. Here was last month's data. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

On tariffs ruling: Trump has all sorts of other authorities.On tariffs: These big deals are going to stay.Regarding the headline, it could keep those speculating on a soft NFP report today in charge. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Not sure if that's going to affect the NFP release...The BLS said the problem is with data retrieval tools. Maybe switching off and back on will work lol This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?Today's NFP setup is diametrically opposite to the one we had in AugustEurozone Q2 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expectedItaly July retail sales +0.0% vs +0.4% expectedSwitzerland consumer confidence -39.9 vs -36.5 expectedFrance July trade balance -€5.56 billion vs -€6.1 billion expectedPutin on Ukraine: There are legal obstacles in Ukraine for potential deal on territoriesGermany July industrial orders -2.9% vs +0.5% m/m expectedUK July retail sales +0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expectedJapan July leading economic index 105.9 vs 105.9 expectedWhat are the main events for today?It's been a pretty boring session in terms of newsflow. On the data side, the highlights were the UK retail sales report and the Eurozone final Q2 GDP. The UK data beat expectations, while the Eurozone data came in line with the forecast. The reaction though was muted given that the attention was on the US NFP report.On the markets side, we basically extended the dovish positioning into the NFP that started yesterday after all the US data releases. The market looks confident that we will get another cool report. Interestingly, to a question on the NFP report, Trump yesterday told reporters: “They come out tomorrow, but the real numbers that I’m talking about are going to be whatever it is, but will be in a year from now on". People speculated again that the numbers might be lacklustre. This might be another reason for the dovish moves we've seen throughout the session.Now we just wait for the US and Canadian jobs data before wrapping up the week. Have a nice weekend all! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Anotherimportant input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.Non-Farm Payrolls0K-144K range of estimates60K-100K range most clustered75K consensusUnemployment Rate4.4% (1%)4.3% (59%) - consensus4.2% (39%) 4.1% (1%)Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y3.9% (7%) 3.8% (31%) 3.7% (59%) - consensus3.4% (3%)Average Hourly Earnings M/M0.4% (5%)0.3% (91%) - consensus0.2% (4%)Average Weekly Hours 34.4 (3%)34.3 (83%) - consensus34.2 (14%)Overall, expectations are dovish for this report and the positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have finally made it to the main event of the month: the NFP report. At this point, the data might not matter much for the September rate cut as the Fed has cornered itself into it by overreacting to the last soft NFP report. Nonetheless, today's data will be important for the future outlook and expectations on interest rates. Yesterday's US data was overall good, but definitely not good enough to prompt the market to revaluate the current easing expectations. But here's the thing, the markets positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August...Back then, the positioning into the NFP was very hawkish. In fact, we had strong US data in July and then a slightly more hawkish than expected FOMC decision. The market pricing showed just 35 bps of easing by year-end and much less than 50% probability for a cut in September. On the markets side, the US dollar got strong bids into the NFP, while stocks, bonds and gold were offered across the board. Then we got that soft NFP report and big negative revisions for the prior months...The reaction was very aggressive: we erased all the moves into the NFP report and the expectations for rate cuts strenghtened significantly. Moreover, Fed members started to sound more dovish after the report which culminated into Powell's dovish tilt at the Jackson Hole Symposium.In one month, we went from one extreme to the next in terms of expectations...Today, we have a very dovish positioning. In fact, the market is pricing 60 bps of easing by year-end and 98% probability of a rate cut in September. On the markets side, the US dollar is getting offered across the board, while stocks, bonds and gold rallied significantly into the NFP.Markets react in a big way when there is such an extreme positioning and a catalyst changes meaningfully the underlying expectations. The catalyst for today is of course the NFP report.If the data is strong (the stronger, the bigger the reaction), it might not change much for a September cut but it will highly likely trigger a hawkish repricing further down the curve. And given the positioning in the market, we might see big reversals. This is what makes today's NFP report such a huge event.Data in line with expectations would be the most boring outcome. From a trading perspective, it wouldn't offer much but it should keep the established trends going.On the other hand, another weaker than expected report could see the markets pricing a third rate cut by year-end or even a 50 bps cut in September. This would also trigger notable moves in the markets, but not as extreme as the ones in case we get strong data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

SPX Order-Flow & Technical Analysis for Today with tradeCompass (Sep 4, 2025)Hello traders and investors, before the NFP is out in a few hours, we start out with looking at the data of the SPX as of yesterday's close. We follow up with a S&P 500 futures analysis, at the bottom of this page, according to the tradeCompass methodology. Let's dive in to the SPX firstSPX is bullish above: 6510.8–6511.0 (clear acceptance above today’s high) SPX is bearish below: 6507.5 Primary bias: Slight bearish tiltPartial targets (both directions): VWAP (intraday “fair value”) Developing POC (volume profile magnet) Value Area High / Value Area Low (today’s VAH/VAL)Market context & directional biasSpot: 6,502.09 at the close of 04 Sept (yesterday).Options order flow: Net option delta ≈ –2,133, with bearish pressure –35,949 vs bullish +33,816 deltas → a mild negative on-balance read.Weighted averages: Bullish W‑Avg 6509.09 vs Bearish W‑Avg 6509.16 → tight balance around 6509.1–6509.2 (micro pivot).Backdrop: Technical label shows Uptrend and 30‑day IV 11.8 (subdued). Put OI > Call OI on the snapshot, which slightly leans defensive, but intraday execution still hinges on the thresholds above.Takeaway: We’re hovering at a micro‑pivot (~6509.1–6509.2) with a small bearish skew in option delta. Momentum confirmation is needed: strength only if price can accept above 6510.8–6511.0; weakness confirmed below 6507.5.Options market on SPX tells us that...Yesterday’s net option delta –2,133 with nearly equal bullish/bearish weighted averages says balance with a bearish edge. Combine this with price acceptance around 6511/6507.5 to time entries; don’t rely on order flow alone—let price confirm.Now let's dive into the S&P 500 Futures Analysis for TodayS&P 500 Futures Market Context & Directional BiasS&P 500 E-mini futures (ES) marked a fresh all-time high in pre-market trading, but momentum has stalled as the market awaits today’s non-farm payrolls report. Historically, in the hours before a major data release, range-bound behavior is common as traders reduce exposure.At the time of writing, ES is trading near 6,525, sitting just under today’s Value Area High (6,527.75). The fair value zone is anchored around the VWAP at 6,521.95 and POC at 6,521.75. On the downside, today’s Value Area Low sits at 6,518.75, while yesterday’s value levels cluster below at 6,516.50 (VAH) and 6,511 (POC).This tight structure suggests most breakout attempts are likely to fade until NFP provides direction. The tradeCompass map therefore emphasizes controlled, short-range targets with risk management front and center.S&P 500 Futures Key Levels & Partial-Profit Strategy for Today (05 Sept, 2025)Bearish scenarios (below 6,527):First reaction level at 6,522 (VWAP zone), where fair value often acts as a magnet.Next pause expected around 6,519 (just above VAL), likely to attract liquidity.Additional downside checkpoint at 6,517, near today’s low-volume edge.Further extension possible to 6,514.5, a liquidity pocket linked to yesterday’s highs.Deeper bearish probe may touch 6,511.5, just above yesterday’s POC.Bullish scenarios (above 6,535):First upside target at 6,540, a logical extension point.Continuation into 6,545, testing early breakout enthusiasm.If momentum sustains, possible stretch toward 6,550.Educational Insight: Why VWAP, Value Area, and POC MatterFor intraday traders, these reference points are not arbitrary.VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects where the bulk of trading has occurred relative to volume. Prices gravitating back to VWAP signal reversion to perceived fair value.Value Area (VAH/VAL): Defines the 70% zone of trading activity. Price tends to oscillate within these bounds unless strong directional pressure emerges.Point of Control (POC): The single price level with the highest traded volume, often acting as a magnet intraday.Together, these metrics help traders recognize when price is likely to mean-revert versus when genuine imbalance emerges. The tradeCompass methodology integrates them into clear bullish and bearish thresholds, simplifying decision-making in complex market conditions.S&P 500 Futures Trade Management Reminders (...according to the tradeCompass methodology)One trade per direction at a time within tradeCompass.Take partial profits as levels are hit and move stops to entry after the second target.Stops should not be placed beyond the opposite threshold (e.g., don’t hold shorts if price sustains above 6,535).Stay flexible: range days can turn into trend days if NFP sparks a decisive break.Outlook Beyond NFPWhile today’s map is focused on intraday ranges, traders should keep in mind that a negative NFP shock could shift the bias. Below 6,485 (yesterday’s VWAP), downside swing targets emerge at 6,450 (round number liquidity pool) and 6,439 (September 3rd VAL).Remember, in just one month, we went from one extreme to the next in terms of expectations. This could trigger huge moves... DisclaimerThis analysis is for decision support only. It is not financial advice. Futures trading involves significant risk, and traders should evaluate their own risk tolerance before acting. Always trade at your own risk and adapt to evolving market conditions. Visit investingLive.com for additional views This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.6%GDP Q2 y/y +1.5% vs +1.4% expectedPrior +1.5%GDP components evolved in the second quarter of 2025 as follows:household final consumption expenditure increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU (after +0.3% in both areas),government final consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU (after -0.1% and -0.2% respectively),gross fixed capital formation decreased by 1.8% in the euro area and by 1.7% in the EU (after +2.7% and +2.3% respectively),exports decreased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU (after +2.2% and +1.9% respectively), andimports were stable in the euro area and increased by 0.3% in the EU (after +2.2% and +1.9% respectively).This is old news as markets are always focused on the next 6/12 months. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.6% (revised to +0.7%)Retail sales Y/Y +1.8% vs +1.0% prior (revised to +1.1%)The agency notes: "In the three months to July, retail sales grew by 0.6% in value and by 0.1% in volume compared with the previous three-month period.""Compared with July 2024, retail sales rose by 2.8% in large-scale distribution, by 0.6% in small-scale retail and by 0.9% in non-store sales. Online sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year.""Among non-food products, year-on-year trends were mixed across categories. The largest increase was recorded in Cosmetic and toilet articles (+3.7%), while the sharpest decline was seen in Electric household appliances, audio-video equipment (-3.1%)." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -32.8This is not a market-moving release. Consumer confidence has been improving steadily since the April's lows but started to slip again from June onwards. The very high tariffs Trump slapped on Switzerland might be a big part of the problem. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -€7.62 billion (revised to -€7.16 billion)This comes as exports increased to €52.1 billion vs € 50.8 billion prior, and imports fell to €57.7 billion vs 58.0 billion prior. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

We have open dialogue with Trump.Have not yet spoken with Trump.On military contingents in Ukraine says that Russia assumes they will be legal targets for strikes.I see no sense in their deployment in Ukraine if there is peace deal.Russia will abide by agreements on Ukraine.We see Kiev is asking for contacts, I am ready for contacts, but see no big sense.We are ready for summit with Ukraine, please come to Russia, we will provide security.The best place for this is Moscow.Ukraine's potential membership in EU is its legal right.Ukraine's potential membership in NATO is completely unacceptable for Russia.Hopes for a peace deal continue to crumble. Russia recently rejected any situation where foreign troops would be stationed in Ukraine to provide security guarantees, which has been one of the key requests for a peace deal from Western countries. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -1.0% (revised to -0.2%)The agency notes: "When large-scale orders are excluded, new orders were 0.7% higher than in the previous month. The less volatile three-month on three-month comparison showed that new orders in the period from May 2025 to July 2025 were 0.2% higher than in the previous three months""The negative development of new orders in manufacturing in July 2025 compared with June 2025 was primarily attributable to the substantial decline (-38.6%) in new orders in the "manufacture of other transport equipment" sector (aircraft, ships, trains, military vehicles)." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +0.9% (revised to +0.3%)Retail sales +1.1% vs +1.3% y/y expectedPrior +1.7% (revised to +0.9%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel +0.5% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior +0.6% Retail sales ex autos, fuel +1.3% vs +1.2% y/y expectedPrior +1.8% (revised to +1.3%)The agency notes: "The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the three months to July 2025 when compared with the three months to April 2025. This decline follows four months of consecutive three-month on three-month growth.""Non-store retailers and clothing stores sales volumes grew strongly in July 2025, which retailers attributed to new products, good weather, and an increase resulting from the UEFA Women’s EURO 2025 tournament."Overall, this report won't change anything for the BoE as their focus switched more towards inflation which is where they are missing by a lot. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.