Headlines:Are markets waiting for Trump to come to the rescue once again?Oil prices rebound on escalating US-Iran tensions as ceasefire deadline approachesIran continues to reaffirm that US demands have been "unserious" and "unrealistic"Differences over nuclear programme remains unresolved, says senior Iranian officialPakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talksBOJ likely to keep monetary policy unchanged in April - reportJapan issues tsunami warning after major 7.5 magnitude quake hitsGerman producer prices in March see largest monthly jump since August 2022Markets:Brent crude up 4.7% to $95.10, WTI crude (June) up 5.9% to $87.50US dollar little changed and keeping more mixed on the dayMajor indices in Europe nursing 1% losses, S&P 500 futures down 0.5%US 10-year yields up 2.2 bps to 4.265%Gold down 0.8% to $4,790, Silver down 1.9% to $79.25Bitcoin up 2.0% to $75,300It's a risk-off mood in markets but not really as bad as you would think if going by the headlines.The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday last week was brief and did not last a day. That as Iran reverted back to close the waterway amid their dissatisfaction with the continued US naval blockade. In turn, they're pushing an uncompromising position and maintaining that there are gaps on key issues. In that lieu, Tehran is saying that they don't see a need for talks so long as Washington continues with its threats.That as we move another day closer to the ceasefire in hostilities, which will expire on Wednesday.Still, it would seem that markets are keeping the faith that something good is still around the corner. Sure, we are seeing a dent to risk sentiment today. However, it really isn't as bad of a knock all things considered.After hitting record highs last week and posting near 12% gains in the past three weeks, S&P 500 futures are only down 0.5% on the day.Meanwhile, oil prices may have opened with a gap higher but are still not quite producing the surging volatility that we saw amid the height of the panic during the war so far. Brent crude is up 4.7% to $95.10 while the June contract for WTI crude is up 5.9% to $87.50. On the latter, do be reminded that the May contract will expire later today.In other markets, major currencies did not get up to much with the dollar also not really moving on the session. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1772 while USD/JPY is also just marginally up by 0.1% to 158.85 on the day. Besides that, USD/CAD is down 0.1% to 1.3685 and AUD/USD is down 0.1% to 0.7158 currently. All in all, no major significant movements in the FX space.As for precious metals, we are seeing gold marked down by 0.8% to $4,790 and silver down 1.9% to $79.25 in response to the risk retreat. But similar to the mood in equities, the drop here isn't really that bad. Even with the near 2% fall today, it still isn't enough to undo the Friday jump in silver prices.Are markets hoping for Trump to deliver another TACO moment in the coming day(s)? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe S&P 500 eventually reached a new all-time highs after a crazy rally since the start of April on growing expectations of an end to the war. The playbook has been very similar to April 2025 when we first get Trump backtracking on tariffs (this time Trump started talking about ceasefire) and then negotiations that kept traders speculating on a resolution. On Friday, it looked like a deal was within reach after a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring. In return, the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump denied the release of the funds but more reports citing officials talked about this potential compromise. Iran continued to say that transfer of enriched uranium has never been on the table.The optimism then gathered steam after Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Trump followed up with a post on Truth Social thanking Iran and even calling it the “Strait of Iran”. Finally, Trump told reporters that he expected a deal in a day or two and prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon. Everything pointed to an imminent deal, but we started to see some weakness into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due to the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution. The bad news is that the ceasefire is expiring tomorrow unless we get another extension, which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines, and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution.An extension to the deadline should keep supporting the market on hopes of an eventual breakthrough but if the bombs start dropping again, it's going to be a bloodbath in the markets given the overstretched levels. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 has surged into new record highs last week and it’s now pulling back a bit amid the renewed US-Iran tensions. The previous all-time high around the 7,040 level might now act as support. If the price pulls back, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into new all-time highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to position for a drop into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If the price extends the fall below the support, we can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline next with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 6,800 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have a minor counter-trendline acting as support for now. The buyers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 7,040 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution which is keeping the markets afloat. The bad news is that the ceasefire expires tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution. INR:The Indian rupee stabilised in the past couple of weeks as the risk-on sentiment amid the US-Iran deal optimism gave the currency a reprieve. The focus remains on US-Iran negotiations as everything hinges on their outcome, although the renewed tensions are keeping the risk mood a bit on the defensive. In terms of macro, the RBI held interest rates steady at 5.25% and downgraded growth forecasts due to the US-Iran war at the last policy meeting. The central bank expects inflation to increase in the short-term and growth to slow down. In the big picture, the Indian Rupee remains on a bearish structural trend against the US dollar, so the dip-buyers will likely look for opportunities around strong technical levels to keep pushing into new highs, but for now the Rupee could remain supported and extend the relief rally in case the US-Iran war ends.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR extended the fall on US-Iran optimism last week but then rebounded late Friday on some hedging into the weekend. The target for the sellers remains the lower bound of the channel but if we get a pullback into the upper bound of the channel, we can expect the sellers to step in there again to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need a break above the upper bound of the channel to open the door for new highs. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline acting as resistance. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to pile in to extend the rebound into the upper bound of the channel.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, while the buyers will look to extend the rally into the 94.00 resistance in case of a breakout.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The brief reopening of the Strait of Hormuz barely lasted a day. That before Iran's military decided to shut down passage of the waterway again as Tehran is dissatisfied with the continued US naval blockade. After that, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic that a deal could get done but not before threatening to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure if there wasn't one.Come today, we're seeing a barrage of headlines from Iran in claiming that they will not back down from their negotiating position. Adding that there remains significant "differences" on key issues such as nuclear and that "the gaps have not narrowed". Still, one can argue that markets are taking all the latest developments in stride for the most part.Sure, oil prices are higher having opened with a gap up today. However, Brent crude is sitting just 5% higher now near the $95 mark. Meanwhile, WTI crude (June contract) is seen up over 5% to around $87.20 currently. Both have not pushed gains all too much on the session, with upside momentum being kept on a tight leash.Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are only down by just 0.4% and well off the lows from the open today - which saw a drop of a little over 1%.It sure doesn't feel like we are seeing a big shift in risk sentiment, at least not one you can tell by the market moves. That as compared to the setback from the headlines since the weekend. In reading the news, it feels like we've just a hit a snag with progress being reset to before the ceasefire. Speaking of which, we're only just two days away from the ceasefire deadline as well.Yet, here we are seeing markets looking rather sanguine even if there is a bit of a risk retreat today. The market reaction seems to suggest that things are not that bad. However, could it be the case that traders and investors are keeping their faith in expecting positive news to eventually come? To be more specific, it looks like market players are feeling quite assured that Trump will eventually come out and deliver another round of good news.Two weeks ago, Trump gave markets a lift by announcing a ceasefire in hostilities. And when markets were feeling in the dumps last week, he again came to the rescue by touting "an amazing two days" ahead of what was supposed to a second round of talks. Eventually, that culminated in the supposed "reopening" of the Strait of Hormuz. But as mentioned above, that barely lasted a day before everything from Friday fell apart.So, third time's the charm then? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The report says that the BOJ is likely to hold off from raising interest rates in April next week, as heightened uncertainty from the Middle East conflict continues to put policymakers off from wanting to rush a decision. The sources claim that the central bank is leaning towards keeping policy unchanged in order to size up the magnitude of the fallout from the conflict.That being said, they note that the final decision may be a close call and is still dependent on what becomes of US-Iran peace talks in the week ahead.One of the sources did say that the BOJ is not likely to act given how markets have already priced out chances of a rate hike for this month. For some context, traders are just pricing in ~15% odds of a rate hike as of today. However, those odds jump do jump back up quite a bit to ~57% by the time we get to the June meeting.The sources also say that even if the central bank were to hold off on rates hikes this time around, they might still want to signal that they are ready to act as soon as June in the wake of mounting inflation pressures.The outcome of the spring wage negotiations was already a positive factor but surging oil prices will just add to mounting price pressures for the Japanese economy. However, the mix of inflation is something that the BOJ will have to be mindful of. They have previously been rather adamant to not want to react too much to cost-push inflation, which is precisely what the economy will experience amid surging oil prices. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Pakistan Army Chief Munir spoke to Trump, told him Hormuz blockade is hurdle to talksTrump told Munir he would consider his adviceA senior Pakistani security source has confirmed that Chief of Army Staff General Asim Munir held a conversation with US President Trump regarding the escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. During the call, General Munir reportedly suggested that the ongoing blockade in the Strait of Hormuz has become the single most significant hurdle to the success of the Islamabad-mediated peace talks. The source noted that the Army Chief conveyed a clear message that de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a prerequisite for moving toward a meaningful diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.Munir argued that the economic and military pressures resulting from the blockade have created a climate of mistrust that prevents teams from finalizing the proposed framework for regional stability. The General reportedly suggested that a calibrated easing of naval tensions would provide the necessary room to sustain the current momentum of the negotiations.President Trump’s response was described by the source as receptive but non-committal. The President told the Army Chief that he would consider his advice, acknowledging Pakistan's role as a primary bridge in the current conflict. This dialogue underscores the growing strategic reliance on the "Munir-Trump" back-channel, which has become a central pillar of the current administration's approach to Middle Eastern stability. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar extended the losses on Friday following a barrage of positive news on the US-Iran front that seemed to point to an imminent deal after Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The greenback eventually erased the losses heading into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran was finalized. Traders might have hedged into the weekend due the risk of an escalation. This is exactly what happened as Iran reclosed the Strait in retaliation to the US blockade.The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding and we are still getting reports of talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution which is keeping the markets afloat. The bad news is that the ceasefire expires tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects given Trump’s track record. The price action continues to be driven by US-Iran headlines and this is unlikely to change until we get an official resolution. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target. Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike, but for now we haven’t got an official resolution.The BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady in April with the market now pricing in just a 17% probability of a hike. The central bank will want to wait for the end of the war and let things settle before considering a rate hike. If the war ends and economic data picks up, they might lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY eventually dropped into the 158.00 support and rebounded as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 level. The sellers will need the price to break below the support to open the door for a move into the major trendline around the 155.00 level. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline acting as resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back into the support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 162.00 handle.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline, while the buyers will either continue to step in around the support or wait for a break above the trendline to increase the bullish bets. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. On Friday, we conclude the week with the Japanese CPI report. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This is almost an exact reoccurrence to what we saw in December last year, with the same sort of tsunami warning being issued for the same three prefectures above. At the time, it was also a 7.5 magnitude earthquake that struck off the coast of Aomori (northern Honshu). And 90,000 people were ordered to evacuate the affected areas in the last episode.NHK is already reporting that tsunami waves of up to four meters is already hitting the Miyako Harbour in the Iwate prefecture. So, the episode this time around is already much bigger than the previous one. Despite a similar tsunami advisory issued in December, the actual waves that struck were only around 0.7 meters in height.It is also being reported that there is no abnormality seen at the Tomari nuclear power plant after the quake. The plant is located to the west of Sapporo and north west of the Hokkaido prefecture. So, there is a bit of a buffer there at least.At the same time, Tohoku Electric is also reporting that there are no irregularities at the Onagawa nuclear power plant (Miyagi prefecture, light tsunami warning) and the Higashidori nuclear power plant (Aomori prefecture). So, that's some good news at least.For those affected by the quake and tsunami, be safe out there. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US proposals have been 'unserious', and its demands 'unrealistic'Tehran has clearly stated its demands and will not change themWe do not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when it comes to safeguarding national interestsTehran is definitely being quite vocal about the situation here to start the new week. Adding to this is that its military spokesperson has also come out to say that it is "ready to confront the US after aggression against Iranian ship". That refers to the seized Iran-linked vessel from the US naval blockade.In any case, the message from Iran seems to be that they are looking to want to maintain a hard line in negotiations. But as mentioned earlier, being uncompromising has always been their default negotiating position from the start. It doesn't mean that they will not sit down to discuss things. We saw in the weekend before this past one that they were certainly willing to come to the table to talk.For now, markets are still very much taking things in stride. Is it a case of traders and investors waiting on Trump to come to the rescue with another TACO moment? That was very much the case last Monday and it could be that markets are waiting for a repeat.Oil prices have stuck with the gap higher, with Brent crude up over 6% to $95.85 and WTI crude also up over 6% to near $88 (June contract). Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% but have kept thereabouts in the past few hours without much notable movement. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The highlight for Monday will be Canada's CPI release. This will be followed by New Zealand's inflation data on Tuesday, which will be a busy day. The U.K. will publish the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate while the U.S. will get the ADP employment change, retail sales m/m and pending home sales m/m. Fed Chair-designate Warsh is also scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee in Washington, D.C., as part of his nomination process. On Wednesday, the U.K. will publish its inflation data while Thursday will bring flash manufacturing and services PMI releases for Australia, the eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. Finally, on Friday, the U.K. and Canada will release retail sales m/m data, while the U.S. will publish the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 1.1% versus 0.5% previously. Median CPI y/y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.3%, trimmed CPI y/y is seen holding steady at 2.3%, and common CPI y/y is projected to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%. March inflation is expected to grow, driven largely by a sharp 21% increase in gasoline prices. Headline CPI is likely to rise to around 2.5% y/y from 1.8% and core inflation is projected to edge higher to around 2.2%. This rebound is mainly energy-driven, as last year’s carbon tax effects fade and fuel prices continue to climb. Inflation could move above 3% in April, although temporary tax relief at the pump coming in effect this week may help limit the increase, according to RBC analysts. Meanwhile, food inflation is expected to ease as annual distortions like the Feb. 2025 federal HST/GST holiday fades out of the data. Underlying price pressures remain relatively contained for now, giving the Bank of Canada some scope to look through the energy-driven spike, provided the increase stops. The Bank is also likely to wait for the results of the USMCA renegotiation and might not consider a rate hike until July, Wells Fargo analysts said. In New Zealand, the consensus for CPI q/q is 0.8%, up from 0.6% previously. Q1 inflation is expected to show a modest increase, driven by higher food and fuel costs. However, annual inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% to 2.8%, coming in below the latest RBNZ projections, while core inflation is expected to remain firm.Westpac analysts note that this dip does not reflect the full picture. The easing in annual inflation in March is likely to be temporary, with inflation expected to rise again through the middle of the year largely due to higher oil prices and their broader pass-through to the economy. Annual inflation could reach around 4.3% by mid-year. In the U.K., the consensus for the claimant count change is 21.4K compared to 24.7K previously. The average earnings index 3m/y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.9% prior, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 5.2%. This week’s data should provide insight into how the U.K. economy is being affected by the Middle East conflict. The Bank of England will closely monitor labor market indicators alongside the latest inflation prints. Labor market data points to a gradual cooling. Wage growth is expected to soften over the past three months, suggesting weaker income momentum. While the unemployment rate is likely to remain steady, it is still elevated. Overall, the data indicate a softening labor market rather than a sharp deterioration. On the inflation side, CPI y/y is expected to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, while core CPI y/y is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2%. The increase in headline inflation is mainly driven by higher energy costs and the steady core reading suggests that the earlier disinflation trend may have stalled. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoE is likely to remain data-dependent. A stronger headline inflation print alone could be an argument for tighter policy, but softer wage growth, sluggish economic activity and an elevated unemployment rate support a wait-and-see approach. Rates are likely to remain unchanged for now with an upside risk if inflation begins to feed more broadly into wages and prices. In the U.S., the consensus for retail sales m/m is 1.4% compared to 0.6% previously, while core retail sales m/m are expected to rise 1.3% vs 0.5%. Early signs suggest consumers have largely absorbed the initial spike in fuel prices. High-frequency card data point to steady spending into early April, with March retail sales likely to show a strong headline increase of around 2%. However, this strength appears partly driven by price effects. Since retail sales are reported in nominal terms, a significant portion of the increase likely reflects higher gasoline prices rather than a genuine rise in volume. While overall spending has remained supported, underlying demand looks softer once adjusted for higher goods prices, which rose notably during the month. Looking ahead, consumption is expected to remain resilient, though at a slower pace. Support from tax refunds has helped offset the impact of higher fuel costs so far. Still, if elevated prices persist and broaden, pressure could begin to build on household finances. Regarding the Federal Reserve, focus starts shifting to Kevin Warsh, as his April 21 confirmation hearing brings both policy and politics into the spotlight, even as the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period. For markets, the key question is what Warsh will signal since he has been largely silent in recent months. The hearing will offer an opportunity to gauge his views on topics such as the current rate level, the longer-run neutral rate and his approach to tools such as forward guidance and the balance sheet. Once seen as more hawkish, he now faces added scrutiny over how closely his views align with Donald Trump, who has advocated significantly lower rates in contrast to current chair Jerome Powell. According to ING, Warsh is likely to strike a measured tone, suggesting that lowering the rate could be appropriate over time, while emphasizing the need for credible justification to maintain market confidence. Part of this argument may hinge on stronger productivity driven by technology and AI, a perspective that seems to align with the Fed’s more optimistic long-term growth outlook. At the same time, the political backdrop remains uncertain. Thom Tillis continues to oppose the nomination amid what he considers to be an ongoing "vindictive" Justice Department probe at the Fed, raising the risk of delays. That uncertainty could extend Jerome Powell’s tenure in an interim capacity if a replacement is not confirmed in time. In the U.S. the consensus for the revised UoM consumer sentiment is 48.4 vs prior 47.6, marking a modest improvement but still reflecting a cautious backdrop. As for inflation expectations, short-term measures like the 1-year outlook could see some adjustments, as changes in energy prices tend to pass through quickly. However, longer-term expectations in the 5-to-10-year range remain stable, holding steady despite the noticeable increase in the preliminary short-term reading, RBC analysts said. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Differences over nuclear programme remain unresolvedThe gaps have not narrowedContinuation of US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines efforts for peace talksAt the same time, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson is also out in saying that "there is no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now".Well, Iran continuing to maintain a hard line and uncompromising stance has always been their negotiating position from the get go. So, this is very much consistent with that brand. It was the same before the first round of talks but eventually there was some form of dialogue at the end of the day. So, it could very much be the case again this time around later this week.That being said, having a conversation and agreeing to certain terms are two different things. And for now, there's still a major gap on two key issues between the US and Iran.First, it is that the US wants Iran to abandon its nuclear ambition and that doesn't seem likely to happen now. It is still unsure whether there is power scuffle among the major ranks in Iran and who is in charge of aligning the view. But as things stand, the messiness in itself is enough to dictate that this particular issue will remain a sticking point in talks.As for the second, it is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran's most important leverage for negotiations and everything else in this conflict. To expect them to open up the waterways again without restriction is not something that they are willingly going to do. Yes, there might be a more limited "reopening". But as every day that passes, oil and gas supply will just continue to tighten further globally and cause a strain to markets. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices plunged on Friday following a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring. In return, the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump denied the release of the funds but more reports citing officials talked about this potential compromise. The selloff then gathered steam after Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Trump followed up with a post on Truth Social thanking Iran and even calling the Strait the “Strait of Iran”. Finally, Trump told reporters that he expected a deal in a day or two and prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon. Everything pointed to a deal and to the end of the war, but we started to see a rebound in prices into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran is finalized. The more conservative traders got vindicated as the market opened with a positive gap following renewed tensions over the weekend after Iran closed the Strait again in retaliation of the US blockade. The good news is that the ceasefire is holding and we are still getting reports of ongoing talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution. The bad news is that the ceasefire is expiring tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects. This might keep oil prices supported into the deadline.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil eventually extended the selloff into the 78.00 support where the price bounced as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 93.00 resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to pile in to position for another drop into the 78.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 120.00 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the resistance.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but given the proximity of the trendline to the resistance, the sellers might want to split their positions between the trendline and the resistance to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It is reported that Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic contacts since Sunday so as to try and get the US and Iran to sit down for talks "as soon as Tuesday".In case you missed the headlines over the weekend, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic about a deal. And that is despite the pushback from Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz again, after being unhappy with the US maintaining its naval blockade. Trump added that US representatives will be heading to Islamabad today for talks. However, Iran has not confirmed its participation yet.I still reckon we will see some form of negotiation between both sides again some time this week. It could be as early as tomorrow but I wouldn't hold my breath on it. And that especially if wanting to expect a comprehensive peace deal and any major reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.On the latter, Iran knows that control over the strait is their most important leverage at the moment. So, I can't see how they would give that up. Sure, they might loosen restrictions over who and how many vessels can pass through but I would not expect a total reopening.Trump has threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if there is no deal but we'll have to see if he will really follow through on that this time around.As a reminder, the fragile ceasefire between the two sides is due to expire on Wednesday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The March data shows:Producer prices (monthly) +2.5% m/mProducer prices (annual) -0.2% y/yThat isn't a surprise with the jump being largely from a sharp increase in prices for almost all energy products. Mind you, the year-on-year figure was -3.3% in February. So, the lower natural gas and electricity prices in the preceding months have largely been negated now.The monthly jump in energy prices was 7.5% in March. In particular, the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Natural gas and electricity prices were more contained though, but there is a bit of a caveat to that. Destatis notes that the low prices were "mainly due to longer-term contracts and pricing mechanisms".Meanwhile, motor fuel prices were seen up 22.3% compared to February and up 29.5% compared to March last year. And prices for mineral oil products were seen up 22.9% compared to February and up 18.3% from March last year.Even if oil and gas price futures may look to have come off the boil in recent weeks, don't expect April to be all too much better. The longer that the US-Iran war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that will continue to keep biting at every day consumers and businesses amid higher energy prices. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines with the latest tensions weighing on risk sentiment. The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding although both sides are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire in relations to the events in the Strait of Hormuz. This is keeping markets afloat, but the risk of a more pronounced selloff is high considering the recent rally in the US stock market. It goes without saying that US-Iran headlines will continue to dominate the price action until the situation in the Middle East is fully resolved.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only highlight is the Canadian CPI report. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs 2.3% prior. The Canadian data has been pointing more towards rate cuts lately with substantial easing in core inflation and weak jobs reports.Nonetheless, the market has been pricing in a rate hike by year-end due to higher energy prices. Today's data is for March, so we are going to see an increase in headline inflation which is very much expected and shouldn't trigger any notable market reaction.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS16:40 GMT/12:40 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries hold close by to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1740 and may yet just play a role in terms of keeping price action more sticky in European morning trade.However, trading sentiment is riding a lot on the dollar and general risk mood at the moment. That as US-Iran tensions flare up again over the weekend after Tehran signaled that the Strait of Hormuz is closed once more. So, that's the bigger factor in play that will keep traders on edge as we get into the new week.In the case of EUR/USD, the pair opened with a gap down but is holding at the 200-hour moving average for now. A break below that will see sellers seize back near-term control for the first time in two weeks, allowing for some added scope to venture towards 1.1700 next.Then, there is one for GBP/USD at the 1.3500 level. And it is pretty much the same situation as well, with the pair's own 200-hour moving average sitting at 1.3488 on the day. So, we are seeing price action keep thereabouts with the expiries at 1.3500 perhaps also set to play a role in terms of limiting price movements to the upside considering the dollar backdrop.But as mentioned above, headline risks are paramount as we get into the new week. Any further suggestions from the US or Iran or even any murmurs about a peace deal or breakdown in talks will be enough to cause markets to jump. So, just be wary of that.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's going to be another messy week, innit? Hopes for peace talks did not last long as Iran refused any concessions with the US continuing to maintain its military presence in the region. Tehran was not happy with the naval blockade still put in place, thus deciding to "close" the Strait of Hormuz again.That is the most important development as we get back from the weekend. Iran also delivered a safety warning to any vessels wanting to pass, that especially after the US seized one of Iran's commercial vessels. On Sunday itself, ship tracking data showed no tankers passing through the strait with many vessels even avoiding entry.So, what's next from here?Well, markets are indubitably responding with a more risk-off mood. However, it's not to say we are seeing a total reset in market sentiment back to where we were two weeks ago. That even as the reality of the situation feels that way.US president Trump continues to feed hope in saying that he still believes a deal can be done and that US representatives will be headed to Pakistan to negotiate one. So, that is still arguably allowing markets to retain some form of optimism - even if misguided.For now, oil prices have opened with a gap higher and are holding gains for the most part. The "front-month" June contract for WTI crude sees prices up by nearly 6% to $87.50 currently. As a reminder, the May contract will lapse today and there might be a bit of a reset come tomorrow.As for Brent crude, that is also seen up nearly 6% to $95.40 on the day now. Physical prices continue to trade at a marked premium between $40 to $50, so that remains a big issue.Even if the futures price is not showing it to be that big of a deal, physical prices are still at very inflated levels. And the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil and gas supply will continue to tighten further. As such, these prices will continue to stick and that is what will really impact every day consumers and businesses.Even if markets might be a bit more sanguine about it, the reaction belies the chokehold that the global economy is facing amid a continuation in the US-Iran conflict status quo.At this stage, Iran's actions on the Strait of Hormuz are what matters the most. The political noise and victory lap from either side matters little to what is actually happening in the waterway.S&P 500 futures are only down 0.6% so far today. That is barely even a dent to the near 12% gains that the index has posted in the rebound from the past three weeks, having culminated in a record close at the end of last week.The fear now is that markets are continuing to underestimate the impact and extent of the economic risks tied with a further continuation to the current geopolitical situation.Asia is definitely taking the biggest hit but once storage levels in Europe are also slowly being depleted, the situation will hit harder in the region. And with each and every day this continues, the risk of this whole thing snowballing will just get bigger and bigger. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Progress seen but core issues divide US and IranIndia and South Korea target $50bn trade as both seek deeper economic tiesCarney says Canada must reduce US reliance as tariffs reshape trade outlookSome, not all, of the Monday morning gaps are filling. Oil, no. Equites, NO. FX, some.PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8648 (vs. estimate at 6.8291)PBOC leaves loan prime rates unchanged, as expected.US keeps Iran pressure high, UN envoy Waltz says strikes remain option ahead of talksUAE seeks US financial backstop as war strains oil flows and dollar liquidityRecap - US seizes Iranian ship, talks stall as Hormuz tensions drive oil price upIran, UAE clash over Hormuz as oil flows disrupted and costs rise globallyTrump’s Fed pick blocked as Tillis cites Powell investigationNew Zealand data: March exports and imports both jump from FebruaryUS futures, Globex, open for the new week's trade. Risk off, as expected.Iran says U.S. violated ceasefire by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships.Oil and equity index futures open at the top of the hour. Early FX is indicating risk offTrump reveals classified Iran war information, again. US Marines' location tweeted out.Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026.Weekend:Trump tells reporter he still thinks he can get a deal with Iran, says "it will happen"Newsquawk Week in Focus: US-Iran ceasefire expiry, Warsh Hearing, and US Retail SalesIran says that Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, situation returns to previous stateOil prices surged at the open following Iran’s re-imposition of a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a brief reopening seen late last week. The move comes amid renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict, though prices have since come off their highs as markets weigh the prospect of continued negotiations.The USD gapped higher at the open but some of the gaps have closed. Over the weekend, tensions intensified after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first such action under the current blockade. US Central Command said the vessel failed to comply with warnings for several hours, prompting action to disable and board the ship. Iran condemned the move as “armed piracy” and warned of imminent retaliation, with state media also reporting drone attacks on US military assets.The ceasefire, set to run through Tuesday, now appears increasingly fragile. Iranian officials signalled limited confidence in upcoming talks, with some reports suggesting Tehran may not participate, while US negotiators are still expected to arrive in Islamabad. That said, Pakistani sources indicate that gaps between the two sides have narrowed, reinforcing market expectations that both parties ultimately want a deal.On the ground, conditions in the Strait remain unstable rather than fully closed. Kpler data showed more than 20 vessels transited the waterway on Saturday, the highest since early March, but reports of vessels being turned back and attacked continue to deter flows. The situation is best characterised as controlled disruption rather than outright shutdown, keeping supply risks elevated.In FX, emerging-market currencies weakened as the US dollar and oil prices rose in response to the renewed tensions.Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China left its loan prime rates unchanged for an 11th straight month, with the one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%, in line with expectations. In the Gulf, the UAE signalled it may shift toward yuan-denominated oil trade if dollar liquidity tightens, following reports it has sought a financial backstop from the US.Despite the geopolitical backdrop, Asian equities showed resilience. Japan’s Nikkei moved back toward recent highs, while Taiwan equities hit a record, with AI-driven optimism outweighing concerns around the Middle East.US equities still show gaps down: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran gaps are said to have narrowed, but disputes over nuclear limits, uranium stockpiles, Hormuz access and sanctions relief remain unresolved, keeping prospects for a deal uncertain and risks to energy markets elevated.Summary:Pakistan sources say US-Iran gaps narrowing Nuclear programme remains core disagreement US wants uranium custody; Iran rejects Hormuz blockade vs restrictions remains unresolved Iran demands sanctions relief and asset release War reparations add further complexityReports from Pakistani media suggest that gaps between the United States and Iran have narrowed in recent days, raising cautious optimism ahead of renewed talks. However, despite some progress, several major sticking points continue to prevent a breakthrough, underscoring how far apart the two sides remain on core issues.At the centre of the negotiations is Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington is pushing for a complete halt to Iran’s nuclear activities, while Tehran has made clear it would only accept temporary restrictions, arguing that any limits must be time-bound rather than permanent. This fundamental disagreement continues to shape the overall framework of any potential deal.Closely linked is the question of Iran’s uranium stockpile. The United States has proposed taking control of Iran’s roughly 400kg of highly enriched uranium, a demand Tehran has firmly rejected. For Iran, relinquishing control of its stockpile is seen as a major concession that would undermine its strategic position.The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains another critical fault line. Iran has indicated it will maintain restrictions on shipping until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Washington, however, has taken the opposite stance, insisting the blockade will remain in place until a comprehensive agreement is reached. This creates a circular dynamic, with each side conditioning its concessions on the actions of the other.Economic demands also loom large. Iran is seeking substantial sanctions relief, including the unfreezing of around $20 billion in overseas assets. In addition, Tehran has put forward claims for war-related compensation estimated at roughly $270 billion, reflecting the scale of damage it says has been inflicted during the conflict.Taken together, the negotiations reflect a narrowing gap on process but not yet on substance. While dialogue appears to be advancing, the key issues; nuclear limits, control of uranium, maritime access, and financial demands, remain unresolved, suggesting any agreement will be complex and potentially protracted. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:South Korea’s Lee visits India for first time in eight years Target to double trade to $50bn by 2030 Focus on shipbuilding, AI, finance, defence cooperation Supply chain risks driving closer ties Korea seeks more naphtha from India Trade imbalance remains a key issueSouth Korean President Lee Jae Myung is set to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, aiming to significantly deepen economic ties as both countries look to strengthen resilience against global supply chain disruptions.The visit marks the first South Korean presidential state trip to India in eight years, underscoring a renewed push from Seoul to elevate the relationship. Officials from both sides are targeting a near doubling of bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from roughly $25.7 billion last year, as part of efforts to upgrade their existing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.Lee has framed the partnership as strategically important in an increasingly fragmented global economy, particularly given ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran war. He emphasised that cooperation between South Korea and India could expand materially across key sectors, including shipbuilding, finance, artificial intelligence, and defence.A major focus is supply chain security. South Korea has already turned to India to help offset risks stemming from Middle East tensions, including a recent request to increase naphtha supplies, a key petrochemical feedstock. India currently accounts for a modest share of South Korea’s imports, but officials see scope to expand flows as part of a broader rebalancing of trade.The relationship also reflects shifting perceptions of India’s role in the global economy. Lee described India as evolving beyond a consumption-driven market into a critical node in global production and supply chains, making it an increasingly attractive partner for industrial collaboration.However, structural challenges remain. South Korea runs a sizeable trade surplus with India, a longstanding source of friction that both sides are seeking to address through deeper cooperation and expanded imports. Analysts suggest sectors such as shipbuilding, which aligns with India’s employment priorities and South Korea’s industrial expertise, could provide a pathway for more balanced growth.Lee’s visit is also expected to include meetings with business leaders, reinforcing the commercial dimension of the partnership. He is scheduled to travel onward to Vietnam as part of a broader regional engagement strategy.This reflects a structural supply chain realignment theme, with Asia increasingly looking inward to offset geopolitical risk. Greater Korea–India integration could support regional trade flows, particularly in energy inputs and industrial sectors. While not an immediate market mover, it reinforces the broader trend of diversification away from traditional routes, which has implications for commodities, shipping, and long-term growth dynamics across Asia. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.