The S&P 500 has completely retraced the Iran war move; the euro is back to pre-war levels; but gold isn't.There may be an opportunity there. Gold has come to life during US trading today and is up 2% to $4831. That's still $440 below pre-war levels, or about 9%. Silver is even stronger today, rising 5%.Both -- I think -- are examples of liquidity and leverage returning to markets. Investors feel comfortable leveraging up again and gold is a destination as it remains in a major bull market.Moreover, the end of the war can add to gold's fundamentals. At the simplest scale, it lowers tail risks for emerging markets. Turkey was forced to sell large amounts of gold during the war as it tried to defend the currency and others were equally vulnerable. In the aftermath of the war, there's an incentive for all the big commodity-importing countries to further raise gold reserves now that they've seen the impact of a Hormuz disruption. They've also seen (again) how the US is no longer playing by the old rules, which is a rise to USD holdings.The entire gold bull market basically started when the US weaponized the dollar by confiscating Russia's reserves and the events in the Middle East underscore that's more likely than it ever was. Trump is also proudly continuing to talk about his next 'conquest', often citing Greenland and Cuba. Notably, gold hit records earlier this year on the Greenland talk.Add in declining inflation and a politically-appointed Fed chair with a clear mandate to cut rates, and the case for gold has rarely been stronger.What can help from here is a technical break. Gold is now flirting with the April high of $4853 and if that breaks, there's not much standing in the way of $5000 and beyond. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's not impossible to see the Fed and ECB take different paths in the short termWe are absolutely focused on delivering on inflation targetIf shocks take inflation off target but not persistently, we should be measured in our responseHow measured of a response is the question? Does that mean not moving rates at all or less than they would otherwise? Lagarde didn't offer much today but I can see a scenario where the ECB walks back rate hikes or pushes back on the 39 bps that's priced in through July.Of course, much of that is going to depend on where oil prices go in the next two months. The interesting scenario to me is if oil settles around $80 vs $60 pre-war. That's obviously going to push inflation above target but it's not some kind of persistent shock and it won't redline inflation at some intolerable level.Now here's the bad news: The ECB will screw it up. They always screw it up. Trichet was hiking into the oil shock in 2007 as the US economy was falling apart and that led to at least part of the malaise that led to the next decade of stagnation in Europe. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Nothing is authentic on the internet and you're likely a target of stock-market boosting campaigns.Wired is out with an interesting article about a Brooklyn rock band called Geese that had a monster 2025. Their album Getting Killed landed on every year-end list that mattered. They booked Saturday Night Live. They sold out a fall tour. The Guardian called them "the new saviors of rock 'n' roll."Then the curtain got pulled back.A digital marketing firm called Chaotic Good Projects confirmed to WIRED today that it ran campaigns for the band — creating networks of TikTok accounts, seeding clips into recommendation algorithms, and manufacturing the appearance of organic grassroots buzz. The firm's cofounder told Billboard they "know how to go viral" and have "thousands of pages" at their disposal. He calls the technique "trend simulation."Read that term again: trend simulation.Now ask yourself a very simple question: if this works for music, why wouldn't it work for stocks?The playbook is straightforward. You build a constellation of accounts across social platforms. You seed content — clips, commentary, reactions — that looks organic. You manufacture engagement that triggers the recommendation algorithm, which surfaces the content to real users, who then amplify it further. The fake spark lights a real fire.Chaotic Good was doing this on TikTok and YouTube. But the same architecture maps perfectly onto financial social media — StockTwits, Reddit's r/wallstreetbets, FinTwit, YouTube finance channels, TikTok finance creators. And in markets, engagement is price action. Now that might not always be positive (though it generally is) but at least it's volume.You'd Be Naive to Think This Isn't Already HappeningSocial media sentiment now feeds directly into algorithmic trading models. Retail investor flows are influenced by what trends on Reddit and TikTok. A coordinated campaign that makes a stock look like it has organic momentum can generate actual momentum — at least for a while.Take a name like Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The stock has been a retail darling, trading at valuations that have made traditional analysts choke on their spreadsheets. The bull case rests on genuine tailwinds — government AI contracts, commercial expansion, the broader AI narrative. But scroll through the social media discourse around PLTR and you'll notice something familiar: an almost suspiciously uniform enthusiasm, an ecosystem of accounts that seem to exist primarily to amplify one thesis, and a volume of engagement that feels engineered.I'm not saying Palantir is running trend simulation campaigns. I have no evidence of that. But I am saying that if you wanted to run one on a stock with a devoted retail following and a momentum-driven price structure, PLTR would be the template and it took off around the same time as these techniques started to become more widespread. The characteristics that make a stock susceptible to this are well understood: high retail ownership, strong narrative appeal, options-heavy trading, and a community that wants to believe.Trailing P/E 217x (111x forward)EV/EBITDA 206xPrice-to-sales 80xThe same profile fits a dozen other names on any given day.As a trader, there are two ways to think about this. One is to find one of these psyops that's started and get in early and hold on for dear life. With the advent of OpenClaw and other AI tools, I imagine that the campaigns that were once spun up by these firms and IR departments will be possible via a guy and a laptop.Otherwise, steer clear of these battleground stocks. I think it's going to be tougher to discern what's authentic and what's real enthusiasm. Ultiamtely, you can't fake earnings (or not for long). If your thesis on a stock is primarily informed by social media sentiment, you don't have a thesis. One of Chaotic Good's founding partners summed up the firm's philosophy in an interview with Billboard: "Everything on the internet is fake."It's a glib line, but it contains a real warning for market participants. The infrastructure for manufacturing consensus is cheap, scalable, and increasingly sophisticated. The platforms that surface content to you are optimized for engagement, not accuracy. And the line between organic enthusiasm and paid amplification is, by design, invisible.In the music industry, the worst-case outcome of trend simulation is that you buy a concert ticket for a band you end up not liking. In financial markets, the stakes are meaningfully different.Earnings are real. Revenue is real. Cash flow is real. Everything else is a story — and now we know, with uncomfortable specificity, how easy those stories are to manufacture.Anyway, here's Geese, decide for yourself: This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Yesterday, there was an Atlantic report that said talks were coming on Thursday, citing sources from Tehran. Now Trump says they're more 'inclined' to go to Pakistan for Iran talks.There was a quick uptick in stocks on this and the S&P 500 is now at the highs of the day, up 0.8%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe stock market today painted a green picture for the Technology sector, with notable performances from major tech giants driving market sentiment up. Microsoft (MSFT) grew by an impressive 2.11%, indicating continued investor confidence. In the semiconductor space, Nvidia (NVDA) leaping 1.88% and Micron (MU) soaring 3.06% highlights a bullish stance among investors, contrasting previous downtrends.The Consumer Cyclical sector also enjoyed gains, led by Amazon (AMZN) which rose by 2.50%, and Tesla (TSLA), adding 2.96%. These gains suggest robust consumer interest and demand, buoyed perhaps by recent economic signals or corporate announcements.Market Mood and TrendsTodays trading session reflects a positive market sentiment, driven largely by enthusiasm in the tech sector. The overall markets vibrant mood is also visible through gains in Communication Services, where Google (GOOGL) added 1.98% and Meta surged 3.04%, underscoring strong investor confidence in digital media and communication spaces.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should keep a keen eye on the Technology sector for potential opportunities, especially in semiconductors, which have shown resilience. Consider diversifying portfolios to include Consumer Cyclical stocks like Amazon and Tesla which are showing strength amid current market conditions. Monitoring these sectors' performance can provide insights into potential upward trends. ?The bearish movements in the Financial sector, with JP Morgan (JPM) dipping 1.04% and Wells Fargo (WFC) sliding 6.79%, caution investors to stay alert to potential downside risks and economic developments affecting financials. ?Stay updated with InvestingLive.com for ongoing market news and strategic insights. Leverage real-time data to navigate, adapt, and make informed decisions in these dynamic market conditions. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

When US tariffs were struck down by a 6-3 decision in the Supreme Court, the President announced a 10% global tariff under a different authority immediately. This was done under Section 122, which has a 150-day limit and a cap of 15%. Initially the rate of 10% rather than 15% was framed as an administrative delay but now Bessent is saying that Trump has 'chosen' not to raise it. That's good news for prices and may reflect that Trump is worried about inflation or is holding it back for leverage later.Notably, the Treasury is doing broad Section 301 investigations regarding unfair trade practices and forced labor. These investigation are largely window dressing and are scheduled to end at the time that the 150-day limit expires. It will lead to fresh tariffs that are more durable.But note that both authorities are likely to be challenged and likely to end up back at the Supreme Court, particularly if the Section 301 investigations aren't seen as proper. The other kink is the midterm elections, which could throw up other road blocks.Other headlines from Bessent:We want to get Warsh confirmed as soon as possible (a report today said the first hearing will be April 21)I'm confident that core inflation will go downWe want to get housing bill passedChina has been an unreliable partner during the war, they are hoarding oilThe mood in markets continues to improve and this tidbit from Bessent is more good news. The S&P 500 is up 44 points, or 0.65%, to 6930. WTI crude oil continues to fall and is now lower on the week, down $5.50 to $93.58 per barrel.The US dollar is broadly weaker and has largely given back its gains from the war, while gold is up $61 today. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The ECB needs to take a medium-term viewNeed to keep eyes on the medium term while checking data dailyWe have to be completely agileWe have to be data dependentThe captain won't leave the ship with clouds on the horizon This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The euro is back to where it was when the Iran war began.That's a good sign for peace but also for resilience. The energy shock is a big hit for Europe but the market is pricing in a transitory effect. Notably, the IMF is out with its latest growth forecasts and sees GDP this year at 1.1% compared to 1.3% in January.That's not impressive growth but there could be upside if Hormuz is resolved relatively quickly and oil infrastructure isn't overly damaged. Note that before the war, European stock markets were also rising rapidly. If that resumes, we could see some positive knock ons to both the currency and the economy as well.For the currency, the big thing to watch is the ECB. The market is pricing in a 34% chance of a hike on April 30 and that rises to 87% for the June 11 meeting. By July, there are 39 bps of hikes priced in.Officials have been quick to fight back against rising inflation expectations due to the energy price shock but I'd imagine they will be cautious at this point. There are still more than two weeks until the next decision and much can change in the interim, so I wouldn't expect any strong signals. Even by April 30, it's unlikely to be clear how the energy system will sort itself out.Technically, there is some short term work to do with some minor highs up to 1.1834 blocking the way. We may consolidate before that and wait for the 'all clear' on Iran but if/when it breaks, there is a solid case to be made for a return to 1.2000. I think the contours of the peace matter here and if Iran is left with a toll on Hormuz, it essentially breaks the US monopoly of the seas and that's inevitably bad for the US dollar. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

IMF cuts 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% in January on Middle East conflictUnited States 2026 growth trimmed to 2.3% vs 2.4% prior; 2027 ticks up to 2.1% vs 2.0%Euro area forecast slashed to 1.1% vs 1.3% in January as energy headwinds deepenIndia growth upgraded to 6.5% vs 6.4% prior on strong momentum and lower US tariffsIMF severe scenario sees global growth at just 2.0%, a 'close call' for recession with oil at $110Iran GDP now seen contracting 6.1% in 2026, a 7.2-point swing from January forecastChina 2026 growth trimmed to 4.4% vs 4.5% in January; 2027 held at 4.0%Turkey 2026 forecast cut sharply to 3.4% vs 4.2% prior on weaker momentum, higher energy pricesEmerging market inflation forecast raised to 5.5% vs 4.8% in January, 0.7 percentage points higherJapan 2026 growth held at 0.7% but IMF says BOJ likely to hike at steeper clip than expectedThe headline number is a cut to 3.1% global growth for 2026 from 3.3% in January. Chief economist Gourinchas made it clear that without the Iran conflict, the IMF was actually looking at an upgrade to 3.4%.The 3.1% reference case already bakes in higher oil and a short-lived disruption, but the adverse and severe scenarios are where it gets uncomfortable. At $100 oil under the adverse case, they're forecasting 2.5% global growth. Take it to $110 and throw in financial market dislocations under the severe case and that falls to 2.0% — what Gourinchas openly called a "close call" for global recession. On the country level, the moves are telling. The U.S. gets a minor haircut to 2.3% from 2.4% — not dramatic, and 2027 actually ticked up — which reflects an economy that's still running on fiscal momentum and a labor market that hasn't cracked. Europe takes a bigger hit, down to 1.1% from 1.3%, and the structural headwinds there are well known. China's trim to 4.4% from 4.5% is modest, but the downside risk is all about what happens if oil goes higher and export demand cools further.India is the standout. Growth upgraded to 6.5% with lower U.S. tariff rates cited as a tailwind.Iran's GDP is now expected to contract 6.1% in 2026, a massive 7.2-point swing from the January view. That's the most dramatic single-country revision in the report and it speaks to both the direct conflict impact and the sanctions tightening.For traders, the inflation call matters just as much as the growth numbers. Global inflation at 4.4% under the reference case is a meaningful move higher from 3.8% in January, and EM consumer prices at 5.5% suggest rate cuts in those economies are going to be delayed or reversed. The BOJ comment about a steeper rate path is notable — if Japan is tightening into global uncertainty, that has implications for the yen carry trade and risk appetite more broadly. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 3.4% y/yPPI M/M +0.5% vs +1.1% expectedPrior +0.7% (revised to +0.5%)Core PPICore PPI Y/Y +3.8% vs +4.2% expectedPrior +3.9% (revised to 3.8%)Core PPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.5% expectedPrior Core PPI MoM +0.5%(revised to +0.3%)PPI Ex Foor/Energy/Trade YoY 3.6% vs 3.5% last monthPPI Ex Food/Energy/Trader MoM +0.2% vs +0.5% last month The March PPI came in well below consensus on both measures — 4.0% year-over-year versus the expected 4.7%, and 0.5% month-over-month versus the expected 1.1%. Given that the forecast was built around an anticipated energy surge, the interesting question is where the miss came from, because energy actually did spike dramatically. Final demand energy rose 8.5% month-over-month, driven by gasoline (+15.7%), diesel (+42.0%), jet fuel (+30.7%), and home heating oil (+39.4%). These are big numbers, but if the consensus was modeling an even larger pass-through from crude, the miss partly reflects crude oil's 12-month gain of 12.3% being more moderate than refined product moves — and natural gas actually collapsed 51.7% on the month at the unprocessed level, which was a massive drag on the intermediate demand side. So the energy story was a tale of two markets: refined products surged, but natural gas cratered, partially offsetting the headline impact.Note that US tariffs were dropped just ahead of March. The Supreme Court struck down the sweeping IEEPA tariffs on February 20 in a 6-3 decision. which means the March PPI data reflects an economy where the major tariff regime had just been invalidated. Trump immediately replaced them with a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, but that's dramatically lower than the IEEPA tariffs had been.Services were a big surprise. Final demand services came in at 0.0% month-over-month, down from +0.3% in February. Services carry about 68% of the final demand weight, so this was the single biggest source of the miss. A few dynamics drove it. Trade margins declined 0.3%, with food and alcohol wholesaling margins dropping 6.0% and fuels and lubricants retailing falling 10.2%. The retailing margins decline is notable because it suggests retailers absorbed some of the energy cost increase rather than passing it through — exactly the opposite of what a simple cost-push model would predict. Meanwhile, the "other services" category (services less trade, transportation, and warehousing) rose just 0.1%, with categories like securities brokerage, deposit services, and residential property brokerage commissions all falling.Transportation and warehousing services gained 1.3%, boosted by airline passenger fares (+2.8%) and truck freight (+1.0%), but at only about 5% of the final demand weight, this couldn't offset the drag from trade margins and flat core services. Notably, real-time airfares are up 30-40% for future dates as energy is passed through, so this will come.The best news in the report was food as final demand foods fell 0.3%, with fresh and dry vegetables dropping 10.7% and crude consumer foods plunging 10.0%. This worked against the headline number as well.The core measure tells the real story. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services — the "super core" PPI — rose just 0.2%, way down from 0.5% in both January and February. This suggests that underlying producer-level inflation momentum actually decelerated in March.In short, the consensus appears to have overweighted the crude oil spike and underestimated three offsetting forces: the natural gas collapse, the removal of tariffs, and a broader deceleration in core services inflation. The energy pass-through was real but narrower than expected, and the rest of the economy's pricing power actually softened. The bad news is that much of the energy price rise is still in the pipeline and Hormuz still isn't open. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Bloomberg reports:Iran is considering a short-term pause to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid testing a US blockade and scuppering a fresh round of peace talksThey cited a person familiar with Iran's deliberations.At this point, I don't think we need a headline to tell us the state of play. The S&P 500 is back to pre-war levels despite the loss of 400 million barrels of oil and a price shock.A peace deal is probably 85% priced in and that continues to go up with S&P 500 futures up 19 points today.I think there is still upside because the market is still digesting Anthropic's Mythos model and a potential step-change in AI capability. Now these models are often over-hyped but at least this new one shows that there's still enthusiasm and that kind of sentiment will drive more money into the space.That said, software stocks rebounded yesterday in a big way. The IGV software ETF rose 5.4% in what might have been a short squeeze but it's a return to the big question of whether AI will eat software.WTI crude oil is down $2.69 to $96.43 and is essentially back to Friday's closing level.Today's economic data includes US PPI, the FOMC Minutes and comments from Daly and Waller.Just now, the ADP weekly employment report was released and rose to 39,250. That's the highest four-week average since the report was introduced in September. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

US March NFIB small business optimism index 95.8 vs 97.9 expectedA tricky time for the oil market as the "smart money" has moved onInvestors surveyed in early April were most bearish in 10 months - BofAECB's Rehn: Interest rate decisions are not locked in beforehandThree tankers were said to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on first day of US blockadeUSDJPY pulls back as the US dollar weakens on renewed US-Iran optimism. What's next?US and Iran negotiation teams reportedly set to return to Islamabad for talks this weekSpain March final CPI +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y expectedWhat are the main events for today?FX option expiries for 14 April 10am New York cutOil prices fall back on renewed hope of a US-Iran dealIt's been a pretty boring session in terms of news and data releases. The only data we got were the final Spanish CPI and the US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. The Spanish CPI was revised higher, while the US NFIB saw a notable drop in sentiment due to the US-Iran war. The market reaction was rather muted to both releases as traders remain focused on US-Iran negotiations given that the outcome will shape future growth and inflation expectations.On the news front, we just got further reports confirming a second round of US-Iran talks later this week. It's not yet clear when, but most reports are looking for Thursday onwards. This optimism is keeping the markets in risk-on mode as the US dollar stays on the backfoot, stocks continue to get bid, oil prices remain under pressure and precious metals extend the gains on easing financial conditions.In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data and the US PPI. The weekly ADP data hasn't been a market-moving release, but it's been pointing to a resilient and even improving labour market.The US PPI is unlikely to be a market-moving report, much like the US CPI last Friday, because everyone knows it's going to be hot due to the US-Iran war. That's old news. What matters now is what happens with the US-Iran negotiations. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 98.8Full report hereThe NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0. The last time the Optimism Index fell below its historical average was April 2025. The Uncertainty Index rose 4 points from February to 92, well above its historical average of 68.NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said: “The 20% Small Business Deduction and other supportive small business tax provisions in the Working Families Tax Cut Act have had many positives for small business owners. However, the dramatic spike in oil prices has spooked consumers and owners alike. Small business owners are having to absorb those higher input costs and pass them along to their customers.”This is not a market-moving report and a drop in optimism in March was widely expected for obvious reasons (US-Iran war). This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The US-Iran war has made things very complicated for the oil market, not least needing to balance out supply and demand dynamics. But from a financial perspective, it is also getting a bit dicey in trying to price out the difference between paper oil and physical oil. I talked a bit about the massive $30 to $50 gap in oil prices last week here and how that might impact trading conditions in the coming week.While the market mood remains calmer on renewed hopes of a US-Iran deal, there's still much to be careful as we slowly approach the cutoff date for WTI crude May contracts next week. When expiry day comes, think of it as anyone who is still caught in a short position and not having the oil for physical delivery will have no choice but to scramble to buy back their contract at any price to exit.And considering the price gap, it could be a case where whoever does have their pants down are going to be in for a liquidation event for the ages. Rightfully, the only people left holding these contracts nearing the cutoff date will be those who actually want or have the oil to deliver on them. Think refiners and producers here in this instance.So, how will we know if there is going to be a liquidation event where many traders get caught on the wrong side of the trade?We can't know for sure but there are certain tell signs we can look at.The first is to look and CME volumes and open interest on the May and follow up June contracts. In the case of WTI crude, we can see that:The volume are still high for the May contracts are still high, suggesting that traders are still trading the headlines with regards to the US-Iran conflict. However, open interest at the close continues to fall significantly while that of the June contracts continue to push up.The latter is a clear enough suggestion that "smart money" has already moved on from the May contracts to June/July contracts to avoid the chaos in the coming week. In essence, one can argue that June is arguably the proper front-month contract for WTI crude at this point.As for Brent crude, the cutoff date is at the end of the month and so the open interest still very much favours the June contract for now:The issue with open interest continuing to decline further is that it is also a signal that the market is getting thinner i.e. lower liquidity. And that means price action will be more susceptible to volatility spikes, that especially if the price gap to the physical market is still present and there are traders wanting out before the cutoff.The open interest shift is a good suggestion that "smart money" or big financial players are already trying to skip the drama and focus on betting on prices. It leaves the May contract left for actual physical players as noted above.So come next week, there could be a jarring moment on the screens where we could see oil prices spike up to around the $110 to $130 range right before the May contract expires and then come back down to the $90+ range once we get into the June contract.It's not so much of a case that the price "crashed" after a massive spike but rather the futures/paper market resetting upon the rollover. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Net 36% of investors expect weaker global economy, shifting from net 7% expecting growthGlobal equity allocation drops to net 13% overweight from 37% in February58% of investors expect Fed to cut rates and 46% see ECB hiking over next 12 months34% of investors expect oil at $80-90 per barrel by end of 2026The Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) is one of the most influential monthly reports in the financial world. It polls roughly 200 to 400 institutional fund managers (people managing hundreds of billions of dollars in hedge funds, pension funds, and mutual funds) to see how they are positioned in the markets.It's useful as a contrarian indicator. In fact, when positioning gets overstretched on one side or the other, the risk of aggressive unwinding increases. Recent examples include the precious metals crash in late January or the US dollar surge in March. Complacency is punished in the markets. There's generally a catalyst triggering the reversals or just multiple factors signalling an inflection point.The US-Iran war led to a repricing in growth and inflation expectations and we've seen that reflected in market prices. This is now priced in and the markets are looking forward to the end of the conflict and eventually better growth and lower inflation as oil prices ease. In fact, the contrarian calls here are short oil as the US-Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, and long stocks as growth expectations get revised higher.This is of course conditional to the end of the war and the reopening of the Strait, but for now the markets are already positioning into that outcome. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

A rise in 2026 inflation is unavoidable but medium-term effect is still unclearECB is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East conflict and the spillover effects on the Eurozone economyMonetary policy should not be based on a single price, such as oil but the overall picture of the economyRectifying damage from Middle East war to energy production infrastructure will continue long after the acute phase of the warIn case the war is prolonged and causes second-round effects on prices and wages, and inflation expectations start to unanchor, monetary policy will be tightenedECB policymaker Olli Rehn reiterated that the path for interest rates remains flexible, adding that future policy decisions are not locked in beforehand. While financial markets have been pricing in rate hikes following the US-Iran conflict, Rehn maintains that the Governing Council will continue to make assessments on a meeting-by-meeting basis.A primary concern for the central bank is the unavoidable surge in inflation projected for 2026. Current estimates suggest that consumer prices could spike toward 3.1% in the second quarter of the year, driven largely by volatile energy prices. Rehn noted that while this short-term rise is now a certainty, the medium-term effect remains unclear. The central bank is focused on ensuring that these temporary price shocks do not seep into broader wage-setting processes or long-term inflation expectations, which would require a policy response.The ECB is closely monitoring developments in the Middle East with US-Iran negotiations now in focus. Beyond the immediate impact on oil and gas prices, the conflict has introduced a layer of "stagflationary" risk with rising costs and slowing growth. The ECB has already revised its growth projections downward for 2026, citing the dampening effect the war has had on both business confidence and household purchasing power.A long-term challenge identified by Rehn is the physical destruction of energy production infrastructure within the conflict zone. He warned that rectifying the damage caused by the Middle East war will continue long after the acute phase of the military conflict has passed. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The report is from earlier today with it noting that there were three tankers that entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on the first day of the US naval blockade. It is believed that the three vessels were not heading to Iranian ports, so they were not stopped by the blockade that was put in place.That being said, these vessels appear to have some ties to Iran. So, it is something perhaps worth noting. The tankers in question are:Peace Gulf, a medium-range Panama-flagged tanker, which typically moves Iranian naphthaMurlikishan, formerly known as MKA, a handy tanker that has transported Russian and Iranian oilRich Starry, a medium-range tanker, but one who has been sanctioned by the US alongside its Chinese owner Shanghai Xuanrun Shipping Co Ltd for having dealt with Iran previouslyAccording to shipping data, Peace Gulf was reported to be headed towards the Hamriyah port in the UAE. Meanwhile, Murlikishan is set to be heading to Iraq to load ​fuel oil while Rich Starry is believed to have loaded cargo at its last port of call in the UAE and would be the first ‌vessel to ⁠make it through the strait and to exit the Gulf since the blockade began.As much as the major headlines are capturing most of the broader market interest, the shipping data is worth looking at to get a better feel of the situation on the ground. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar opened the week higher yesterday following the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations over the weekend. The gains didn’t extend further though as the ceasefire remained intact and we got reports of US and Iran continuing to exchange messages through diplomatic backchannels.There were still risks of another escalation after Trump decided to put pressure on Iran by blockading their ports, but everything turned around in the first part of the US session as we started to get positive headlines and the greenback sold off across the board.In fact, we got the first boost to risk sentiment after the New York Post reported that Iranian officials were studying abandoning uranium enrichment as a US condition for ending the war. The moves then extended as we got further reports confirming the ongoing negotiations between US and Iran and finally a second round of talks was set for this weekend. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency has been mostly driven by US dollar strength and weakness as Japanese macro conditions continue to point towards a neutral policy. In fact, despite the growing expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target. Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate into favourable conditions for a rate hike.For now, the BoJ is more likely to hold rates steady and let things settle after the conclusion of the war. What the BoJ could do at the April meeting is to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if they think they have the right conditions in place. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY bounced around the 158.00 handle and almost reached the 160.00 level before retracing. The recent consolidation might have formed a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around the 158.00 support. If the price falls back to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into the 162.00 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the 155.00 level next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price rejected the downward trendline near the 160.00 handle and eventually broke below the upward trendline that was defining the pullback. The sellers stepped in around the downward trendline and increase the bearish bets on the break of the upward trendline targeting the 158.00 support. If we get another pullback into the downward trendline, we can expect the sellers to lean on it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to pile in for a rally into the 162.00 handle. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we don’t have clear levels where to lean on other than the resistance around the 159.40 level. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline in case the pullback extends and target the 158.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks to pile in for a rally into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we have the US PPI report. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

This is mostly a repeat to what we've heard from earlier in the day, that both sides are eyeing talks on Thursday in Islamabad.But as the echo chamber gets louder, we're seeing market players pick up on the optimism and running with it. It's a funny thing that even though the latest development is essentially a reset to last week, markets are growing even more optimistic of a positive outcome. All this while the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure for longer.I would argue that reservations are still warranted, not least with there needing to be more positive progress before next week for the oil market. From earlier: Oil prices fall back on renewed hope of a US-Iran dealBut at the same time, it would be bad form to underestimate the odds of a peace deal of sorts here. That especially since US president Trump is wanting to push for it so badly. It feels like we will get there eventually. The only question is how and what happens next on the Strait of Hormuz?For now, market players are just tuning out the questions and noise but choosing to run with the buzz instead.The market mood continues to pick up on headlines like these. The dollar is slipping lower across the board while stocks in Europe are kick starting the day on a more positive note. S&P 500 futures are also seen up 0.1% currently. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil is down well over 3% to $95.60 at the moment. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.3%HICP +3.4% vs +3.3% y/y prelimPrior +2.5%Core annual inflation is seen at 2.9% and that is a step up from the 2.7% reading in February. As higher energy prices bump up headline inflation, it will eventually also spill over to core prices down the road. That even more so the longer that this US-Iran conflict keeps up and the Strait of Hormuz remains in de facto closure.For now though, the broader market mood is still one that is leaning more towards being more optimistic. However, the reality of the situation remains that nothing will change until something changes on the Strait of Hormuz. Traders and investors are holding out hope but is it only a matter of time before it all comes tumbling down? This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.