KEY POINTS:The UK CPI data surprised to the downside across the boardTraders are now betting on two more rate cuts in 2026The BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow but could sound more dovishUK FTSE 100 surged on the soft inflation data as rate cuts boost the stock marketFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWThe UK FTSE 100 surged this morning following the surprisingly soft UK CPI data. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates.Even though food prices are generally volatile, several BoE members expressed significant concern lately that persistent food price increases could keep inflation sticky above 2% as households change their inflation expectations. Therefore, this should be good news for the central bank ahead of its monetary policy decision tomorrow where it's expected to cut the Bank Rate to 3.75%.Given the soft UK employment and inflation data this week, the BoE might not only deliver the rate cut, but also a more dovish tone. The market has been expecting at least one more rate cut in 2026, but traders are now starting to bet on at least two more cuts next year.For the stock market, lower interest rates and expected subsequent recovery in the economy are bullish drivers and should support the bullish momentum into new all-time highs, all else being equal.UK FTSE 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that FTSE 100 (CFD contract) bounced from a major trendline on November 21 when Fed’s Williams lift the global risk sentiment by endorsing a rate cut in December. We had some rangebound price action since the first week of December, but following the soft UK CPI, the market is now breaking out to the upside. The natural target for the buyers will be of course a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will wait for the price to reach the all-time high to position for a drop back into the trendline.UK FTSE 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that we had a strong resistance zone around the 9760 level. The price broke out this morning, and the buyers piled in with more conviction to target new all-time highs. The sellers will want to see the price falling back below the 9760 zone to step back in and position for a drop into the major trendline. UK FTSE 100 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that the price already reached the upper bound of the average daily range for today. The price generally consolidates or pulls back in such cases. If we get a pullback into the 9760 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop into the major trendline.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the BoE monetary policy decision and the US CPI, while on Friday we conclude the week with the UK Retail Sales data. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 88.1Current conditions index 85.6 vs 85.8 expectedPrior 85.6Expectations index 89.7 vs 90.5 expectedPrior 90.6More to come.. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

That figure is 10.4% higher year-on-year, with visitors from China even showing a marginal growth of 3% in November. For some context, the year-to-date visitor arrivals for Japan has breached 39 million in 2025 - well exceeding the total for 2024 already, which was 36.87 million.As a reminder, China and Japan are engaged in a diplomatic altercation at the moment. That came about after Japan prime minister Takaichi made remarks about Japan intervening militarily if China does decide to engage to seize Taiwan.Naturally, that didn't go down well with Beijing as you would expect. And that resulted in China calling for a travel advisory warning for citizens to not to travel to Japan. So far, the impact seems rather muted in November. So, we'll have to see how things go in December and January (best time for snow visits) to be more certain of any major impact.As added context, mainland Chinese tourists have made up the largest group of visitors to Japan so far this year, accounting for almost a quarter of the total visitors.And yesterday, China continues to reaffirm that they want Takaichi to retract her comments. The message from Beijing was that:"On key issues, Japan is still 'squeezing toothpaste' and 'burying nails,' attempting to obfuscate and muddle through."That as China's foreign ministry spokesperson, Guo Jiakun, reiterated that Beijing continues to "firmly oppose" to the remarks from Tokyo over the whole debacle thus far. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Eurostoxx +0.2%Germany DAX +0.2%France CAC 40 +0.1%UK FTSE +0.8%Spain IBEX +0.4%Italy FTSE MIB +0.4%The overall market mood is a calmer one with US futures also holding slightly higher on the day thus far. S&P 500 futures are up 0.1% as investors are resting on a steadier tone after the rebound in tech shares overnight. The end of Wall Street trading saw a mixed showing with the S&P 500 finishing lower by 0.2% as the Nasdaq closed up by 0.2% while the Dow was down 0.6%.So, that's keeping investors on their toes in what is shaping up to be a bit of a back and forth week. The US labour market report didn't produce too much drama and now all eyes will turn towards the US CPI report tomorrow instead, as well as major central bank decisions to come later this week. On the latter, we will have the ECB and BOE tomorrow before the BOJ on Friday.As for the start of European trading today, UK shares are standing out after the softer CPI report earlier to start the day here. That's bolstering the narrative of a BOE rate cut heading into next year. The next rate cut after the one this week is now priced in for April 2026, brought up from July 2026 previously before the data. But as for the outlook as a whole, traders are still just pricing in roughly 69 bps of rate cuts - not much changed from 68 bps previously. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION:In the European session, the main highlight was the UK CPI report. The data surprised to the downside across the board weighing on the pound and boosting the UK stock market. The BoE is widely expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow bringing the Bank Rate to 3.75%, but following the soft employment and inflation data this week, the central bank could sound more dovish. Looking ahead we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Eurozone CPI figures and the German ZEW. None of the data is going to change anything for the ECB which is expected to keep eveything unchanged at the monetary policy decision tomorrow. AMERICAN SESSION:In the American session, the only highlight is Fed's Waller speech on the economic outlook. He's been dovish since the first half of the year because he expected more weakness in the labour market and inflation to peak around 3% due to tariffs. He's been right on pretty much everything for a long time and that's why the market pays more attention to his views. Waller is also a contender for the Fed chair position, but contrary to Warsh and Hassett, he's respected among his fellow Fed members and he would be far more likely to persuade the other Fed members to vote with him. Moreover, the market would certainly love him as Fed Chair.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS:13:15 GMT/08:15 ET - Fed's Waller (dovish - voter)14:05 GMT/09:05 ET - Fed's Williams (dovish - voter)17:30 GMT/12:30 ET - Fed's Bostic (hawkish - non voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:UK CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.5% expectedUK Core CPI Y/Y 3.2% vs 3.4% expectedFood and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributionsThe pound dropped across the board as traders increased BoE rate cut betsThe UK FTSE 100 surgedThe BoE is expected to cut by 25 bps tomorrow but could sound more dovishUK INFLATION:The UK CPI figures this morning surprised to the downside across the board. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) noted that food and non-alcoholic beverages, and alcohol and tobacco made the largest downward contributions to the monthly change in both CPIH and CPI annual rates.Even though food prices are generally volatile, several BoE members expressed significant concern lately that persistent food price increases could keep inflation sticky above 2% as households change their inflation expectations. Therefore, this should be good news for the central bank ahead of its monetary policy decision tomorrow where it's expected to cut the Bank Rate to 3.75%.MARKET REACTION:In the markets, we saw a clear dovish reaction with the GBP falling across the baord and the UK FTSE 100 index surging. Given the soft UK employment and inflation data this week, the BoE might not only deliver the rate cut, but also a more dovish tone. The market has been expecting at least one more rate cut in 2026, but traders will likely start to bet on at least two more cuts next year.This should weigh on the pound, especially against the euro given some hawkish bets on the ECB. On the other hand, the FTSE 100 should be well supported into new all-time highs as lower interest rates and expected susequent recovery in the economy are bullish drivers for the stock market. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

German DAX futures +0.2%French CAC 40 futures +0.2%UK FTSE futures +0.3%This follows from the modest declines yesterday, with Wall Street also reflecting a more mixed picture. Tech shares were the ones leading the charge yesterday with the Nasdaq closing 0.2% higher but the Dow closed 0.6% lower instead. There's still a lot of back and forth with market players continuing to push and pull on the whole AI narrative. So, that's keeping risk sentiment on edge for the most part.But for today, the market mood seems to be steadier with US futures also seen marginally higher. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.1% as we look to the session ahead.In terms of key risk events on the economic calendar, we already got the big one out of the way. That being the UK CPI report for November here. The inflation numbers were softer than anticipated and that will help the BOE stick the landing for a rate cut this week. It may still be a bit premature to sell the story of a stronger disinflation trend though, especially with services inflation keeping elevated.As such, I wouldn't expect market players to get too carried away in trying to price in that much quicker rate cuts by the BOE. So, that could limit the declines in the pound currency for the day. The GBP/USD side of the equation may be a bit trickier, as the dollar is seen keeping firmer across the board as we get into European morning trade. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Prior +3.6%Core CPI +3.2% vs +3.4% y/y expectedPrior +3.4%That is an unexpected miss, especially on the core estimate which is the lowest since January. This will just solidify a rate cut by the BOE for this week but also put pressure on perhaps more rate cuts to come if the central bank can start to sell the narrative of a disinflation path going into next year. The pound has stumbled with GBP/USD falling by 0.6% to 1.3345 on the day from 1.3377 just before.Looking at the breakdown, the big drop stems from food price inflation which fell from 4.9% in October to 4.2% in November. Besides that, goods inflation also eased lower from 2.6% to 2.1% with Black Friday discounts resulting in a decline in clothing and footwear prices of 0.3% on the month and 0.6% year-on-year. Compared to the same month last year, November 2024 saw a rise of 0.6% in clothing and footwear prices on a monthly basis. So, there is perhaps some greater influence in Black Friday discounts this time around in dragging prices lower.As for services inflation, it is seen declining marginally from 4.6% to 4.5% in November. So, that is still one key sticking point for the BOE in trying to convince of a strong disinflation narrative in the UK economy.At the balance, there is some good news in the sense that price pressures are easing and starting to show further signs of softening. That especially after months of not showing much progress.However, unless services inflation also starts moderating more meaningfully, the BOE might still find it tough to push a strong narrative for further rate cuts next year. For now at least, they can comfortably stick to the one this week. But looking out to next year, it will require months of a similar trend in inflation data to support their case. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Morgan Stanley estimates that UK headline annual CPI will come in at 3.4% in November, with the core annual reading being at 3.3%. That's slightly under the consensus estimate from analysts of 3.5% for the former and 3.4% for the latter. But with both numbers set to keep above 3%, the firm notes that it reflects ongoing stickiness in UK prices despite easing pressures elsewhere.Their more detailed breakdown estimates core goods inflation at 1.2% while services inflation is to remain high at 4.5%. As such, it will continue to pose a challenge for the BOE in wanting to convince of a more decisive disinflation narrative in the UK.Overall, they see the risks to price pressures as being balanced. There is potential for downside risk to come from food prices but aggressive Black Friday discounts and sales could lead to upside pressures on core goods inflation. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects services inflation to continue to reflect more evenly distributed risks towards the overall inflation picture.As a reminder, the BOE will meet for one final time tomorrow. And market players are well expecting another 25 bps rate cut even with potentially stickier price pressures today. Going into the report later, traders are pricing in ~92% odds of a rate cut for this week with the next rate cut only fully priced in for July next year. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The end of the year is often considered the ideal time to rebalance a portfolio, both from a tax perspective and because it is easier to assess the performance of assets relative to the target allocation and identify any resulting imbalances.But what if the idea was to build a portfolio from scratch based on the most promising assets— which ones should carry more weight?Starting with the S&P 500, forecasts for 2026 vary quite a bit, but the overall outlook remains optimistic:Bank of America takes the most cautious view, expecting the index to end the year around 7,100 points, a modest 4% rise from current levels. Goldman Sachs has revised its outlook upward, anticipating a 7,600-point finish, driven by solid corporate earnings and accelerated adoption of AI. Citigroup is slightly more optimistic, targeting 7,700 points, also citing resilient earnings and continued AI-related investment tailwinds. The most bullish forecast comes from Oppenheimer, which projects that the index could reach 8,100, driven by shifts in monetary and fiscal policy that are expected to boost earnings growth.Turning to gold (XAU/USD), ING expects prices to average around $4,325 per ounce. Deutsche Bank has raised its forecast to $4,450, citing strong investor demand, ongoing central-bank purchases, and limited supply growth. RBC Capital Markets is more optimistic, projecting an average of $4,600, with gold potentially ending the year near $4,800. The most bullish view comes from Goldman Sachs, which predicts gold reaching as high as $4,900 by year-end, driven by continued central bank buying and renewed private-sector inflows as the Fed eases its policy.As for oil, the EIA projects WTI crude to average around $51 per barrel in 2026, with Brent following a similar path as global supply continues to outpace demand growth. Goldman Sachs broadly agrees, forecasting Brent at roughly $56 and WTI near $52 per barrel.Expectations for the US dollar remain subdued, with ING anticipating that the DXY will stay under pressure throughout 2026 rather than regain its previous strength. This environment favors relative-value trades across major currencies, with the euro likely to maintain its gains, while sterling may face downside risks amid softer growth and potential fiscal challenges.On the fixed income side, 2026 looks broadly positive, supported by expected Fed rate cuts and the resilience of the US economy. However, inflation, fiscal pressures, and central bank risks continue to warrant caution.Overall, gold and the S&P 500 appear most likely to outperform in 2026, though the outlook could shift depending on global events. This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

There are just a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.And they are for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. As things stand, the expiries are sandwiching the current spot price and so will have the potential to act as bookends to price action in the session ahead. That at least until they roll off later in the day. The dollar is keeping steadier overall, clawing back some losses from after the FOMC meeting last week. So, that is keeping things in check with price action also more controlled so far this week.There won't be any major catalysts on the economic calendar today, so price action among major currencies shouldn't be too volatile. The dollar will be eyeing the US CPI report tomorrow for the most part with the euro and pound needing to focus on the BOE.As for the expiries board, just be wary of some relatively large ones for USD/JPY tomorrow starting with one at the 155.00 mark. Then, there will be much larger ones on figure levels on the way up from 156.00 through to 157.35. They may not factor into play but they are worth noting just in case we do see some extensions in price action to draw them closer.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Japan must raise neutral rate of interest via fiscal policy, growth strategyIf Japan's neutral rate rises as a result of fiscal policy, it would be natural for BOJ to hike ratesBut for now BOJ should avoid premature rate hike, excessive monetary tighteningSanaenomics carries over elements of Abenomics but focuses more on strengthening supply side of the economyWell, take his comments here with a pinch of salt as he is part of the government panel recruited by Japan prime minister Takaichi. So, the bias in his remarks and narrative is to side with the government and to try and speak against the intentions by the BOJ to hike rates later this week. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

A lot of anticipation is riding on the BOJ this week with the Japanese central bank set to deliver one of, if not the last major key risk event for the year. A rate hike is well anticipated at this point as the BOJ looks to have won the battle in the first round against Japan prime minister Takaichi.That being said, she hasn't backed down from her stance in wanting the BOJ to play ball to fit with her more proactive fiscal policy. Earlier today, she also came out to say that now isn't the time for fiscal tightening for Japan. So, you can see that she is definitely standing her ground and will want the BOJ to follow suit next year.But for the last meeting to round off the 2025 year, it looks like Ueda & co. have definitely grown a pair and will deliver another rate hike in bringing the short-term policy rate to 0.75%.As concerns grow on Takaichi's fiscal policy stance, Japanese bonds have been sold off heavily in the past few months. And adding to the BOJ's more hawkish stance in recent weeks, that's a double whammy resulting in a surge higher in yields. And looking this week, we're seeing 10-year JGB yields jump up to their highest since June 2009.And the selloff in the bond market is also exacerbating the declines in the Japanese yen currency. It's a tough situation for those holding Japanese assets.The government and BOJ will have to find ways to not prevent over-speculation on the part of market players. However, it doesn't seem like the line is being drawn on either front just yet.USD/JPY is trading back above 155.00 today after a daily break under that overnight. And if the BOJ is adamant to want to keep doing battle with the government next year, it's going to be tough for Japan to find much stability in both the currency and bond markets.I wouldn't expect the BOJ communique this week to be explicit about that of course. However, the message a rate hike in itself sends is a rather strong one. That especially if the spring wage negotiations in March also delivers a more upbeat result in increasing the pressure for the BOJ to move again. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

tradeCompass Key Price Levels for S&P 500 Futures, with orderFlow IntelThis S&P 500 analysis focuses on how yesterday’s order flow structure continues to shape today’s trade dynamics. Rather than treating today as a clean reset, orderFlow Intel shows that the market is still working through an unfinished auction from the prior session.As a result, this S&P 500 forecast today is less about momentum and more about value control, acceptance, and rejection around clearly defined price levels.Recent Market Developments for the S&P 500Broader macro and cross-asset signals remain mixed. In the U.S., softer recent jobs data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates earlier than previously anticipated next year, according to CIBC, adding a layer of uncertainty to near-term equity positioning. At the same time, currency markets remain active, with the Reserve Bank of India continuing FX intervention efforts to stabilize the rupee, highlighting the ongoing sensitivity to capital flows and dollar dynamics. In crypto markets, as I show in my technical analysis video, Ethereum futures remain under technical pressure, with recent analysis pointing to a %12.5 downside scenario as the dominant path unless key resistance levels are reclaimed. Together, these developments underline a market environment where policy expectations, currency stability, and risk appetite remain closely intertwined, but I would say the tendency is still to the bearish side. And that is what the recent orderFlow Intel reports show as well. orderFlow Intel is a proprietary analysis method used on investingLive.com that combines real-time order flow, volume, and AI to reveal buyer and seller control beneath price, helping traders understand why markets move and where momentum may continue or reverse.What happened yesterday in S&P 500 futures and why it matters todayYesterday’s S&P 500 futures session moved through several important structural phases.Early selling pushed price lower, with acceptance below value and a session low near 6817. That downside move did not turn into panic or liquidation. Buyers responded and managed to rotate price back into the value area, leading to a repair phase into the U.S. close.Late in the session, price briefly pushed above the Value Area High near 6866–6870, triggering stops and breakout attempts. However, orderFlow Intel showed that this move lacked acceptance. Value did not migrate higher, and price quickly rotated back toward VWAP. This marked a false breakout, not a bullish transition.The market closed inside value, but with lower highs and unresolved seller pressure. That context is critical for today’s S&P 500 technical analysis.How today’s S&P 500 session connects to yesterdayToday’s open reflected that unfinished auction.Instead of opening with strong directional intent, S&P500 futures rotated around yesterday’s Point of Control near 6855, repeatedly testing it from both sides. Buyers showed activity, but orderFlow Intel confirmed that they were unable to relocate value higher.At the same time, sellers did not press aggressively lower. This created a range with a bearish tilt, rather than a clean trend.Key value references shaping today’s S&P 500 prediction today:Yesterday’s POC: 6855Yesterday’s VAL: 6834.5Yesterday’s VAH: 6866Developing VWAP today: 6849–6850As long as price remains below 6855, sellers retain the structural edge.tradeCompass directional framework for S&P 500 futuresPrimary biasSlight bearish bias, unless price reclaims and sustains above the upper value thresholds.This is not a high-momentum sell environment. It is a controlled auction where downside targets are worked step by step if sellers continue to control value.Bearish S&P 500 scenarioBearish activation: Sustained trade below 6855, especially if retests into that area fail.orderFlow Intel context (high level):Selling is being accepted rather than immediately reversedBuyers show activity but fail to hold higher pricesValue continues to build at or below lower referencesBearish profit targets:TP1: 6836 Positioned safely above yesterday’s VAL at 6834.5.TP2: 6829 A known liquidity pool from November 25.TP3: 6810.50TP4: 6801.75 Just above the psychological 6800 round number.TP5: 6781.75Trade management: After TP1 is reached, move the stop on the remaining position to entry (breakeven).On the broader view, this pitchfork on the 4h chart of ES1! (S&P 500 Emini Futures) is acting like an activated bear flag. Bulls must push and get price to re-enter that pitchfork's channel to reignite the bull premise. According to this perspective, bears are looking better then bulls, till that changes. And 6800 round number might be tested later today. I bet market makers wouldn't mind hunting stops below that key level.Bullish S&P 500 scenarioBullish activation: Sustained trade above 6869–6871, with acceptance and follow-through.This zone represents a cluster of prior value and VWAP memory. Buyers must prove control here for the S&P 500 forecast today to turn bullish.orderFlow Intel context:Value must migrate higher, not just spikePullbacks should remain shallowSellers should fail to push price back into the prior rangeBullish profit targets:TP1: 6878TP2: 6888 Just below the December 14 Value Area High.TP3: 6897.5Trade management: After TP1 is reached, move the stop on the remaining position to entry (breakeven).Stop placement ruleStops should be placed just beyond the activation threshold, with a small buffer. Never place a stop beyond the opposite threshold.If price sustains beyond the opposite threshold, the setup is invalid and you should already be out. Learn more about the tradeCompass principles here: https://investinglive.com/Education/welcome-to-tradecompass-a-trusted-map-for-traders-20251103/Sometimes, we even dish out live updates, not seen on the investingLive website, which are given on our Telegram Channel, learn more about that here: https://investinglive.com/Education/join-the-investinglive-telegram-channel-live-trades-and-real-market-discipline-20251103/Final S&P 500 takeawayThis S&P 500 technical analysis is not about predicting a breakout. It is about identifying who controls value.Below 6855, sellers retain the edge and downside targets remain in play.Above 6869–6871, buyers regain control and higher value becomes possible.Until one of those conditions is met, expect range behavior with a bearish tilt, driven by acceptance and rejection around key value levels rather than impulsive momentum.Decision support only. Trade the S&P 500 at your own risk only. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

CIBC notes that the non-farm payrolls release yesterday reflected further softness in US labour market conditions. Adding that while payrolls gained by 64k in November, it comes after a sharp decline of 105k in October which effectively erases the gains from September.Besides that, the three-month average job growth has cooled further to 22k and the unemployment rate also edged a little higher to 4.6%. So, all of that points to suggestions that the labour market is continuing to soften as a whole.And when coupled with a more resilient consumer as the October retail sales control group showed a 0.8% jump, it suggests that demand conditions are still holding up rather favourably.At the balance, it could prompt Fed policymakers who dissented at the last meeting to reassess their stance. And that could raise the probability of earlier easing in 2026.That being said, I must point out that Goolsbee and Schmid were the two main dissenters last week in wanting rates to be kept unchanged. Come next year, they will not be on the voting board rotation. So, there's that to keep in mind.Instead, we will be getting these Fed members on the voting board:Beth Hammack (Cleveland Fed)Anna Paulson (Philadelphia Fed)Lorie Logan (Dallas Fed)Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed)The ones rotating out will be:Susan Collins (Boston Fed)Austan Goolsbee (Chicago Fed)Alberto Musalem (St Louis Fed)Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City Fed)Looking at the change above, Hammack and Logan should be like-for-like replacements to Goolsbee and Schmid on the central bank dove versus hawk scale. And if anything, they might even be more hawkish. So, it will be a tough task to want to change their minds in pushing for stronger conviction on rate cuts.However, CIBC argues that a cooling labour market will continue to chip away at their resolve as the balance of evidence weakens the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged. As such, the firm sees an increasing likelihood of earlier easing by the Fed in 2026. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Reserve Bank of India FX intervention to support the rupeeSingapore central bank (MAS) survey shows stronger 2025 growth, policy seen on holdSingapore exports beat expectations as electronics and pharma lift NODXChina slowdown raises downside risks for AUD and Australian assetsStrong exports lift BoJ hike odds as Japan recovery gathers pace - recapWeak yen clears path for December BoJ hike, if yen fails afterwards another hike to comeIndia’s central bank governor says US trade deal impact about 0.5% on GDP growth ratePot shots - Trump set to fast-track cannabis reclassification under executive orderSilver hits record ~US$65 per ounce on tight supply and strong demandPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0573 (vs. estimate at 7.0386)Trump orders blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, crude oil price jumpsCalifornia judge backs up to 30-day Tesla cars sales suspension over Autopilot marketingTrump orders total blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving VenezuelaJapan: Nov exports +6.1%y/y (expected +4.8%) Oct Machine orders +12.5%y/y (expected +3.6%)Goldman Sachs says Fed more willing to cut rates again next year, citing job market riskPort of Los Angeles sees sharp import drop as trade uncertainty bitesAlphabet (Google)-backed Waymo explores $15bn-plus funding round at near $100bn valuationReports that the White House is divided over Hassett as possible Fed chairOil: Private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw much larger than expectedWestpac pushes back on RBA hike calls, sees rates on hold through 2026New Zealand Q3 current account deficit widens sharply, annual gap improvesTesla hits record high as robotaxi optimism outweighs EV sales headwindsU.S. Stocks close mostly lower amid cautious sentimentOil prices rebounded during the session after sliding to their lowest levels since February 2021 in U.S. trade on Tuesday. The catalyst was President Donald Trump’s announcement that he had ordered a “complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, escalating pressure on Caracas amid an expanded U.S. military presence in the region and renewed threats of land strikes. The move injected fresh geopolitical risk into energy markets and helped lift crude from deeply oversold levels.The yen was another key mover. Higher oil prices added to the currency’s headwinds, while renewed concerns around financial stability were reinforced by another sell-off in Japanese Government Bonds. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield climbed to its highest level since June 2007. USD/JPY rose from early-session lows below 154.55 to trade back above 155.10 at the time of writing.The renewed yen weakness comes at an awkward moment for the Bank of Japan. The central bank is widely expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday and Friday, with the decision due Friday. If yen depreciation persists through and beyond the meeting, pressure will likely build for further tightening early next year.Data out of Japan were supportive, with trade figures and machinery orders beating expectations, reinforcing the view that underlying growth momentum is improving.More broadly, the U.S. dollar recovered modestly after Tuesday’s pullback, with FX markets otherwise relatively contained.In U.S. equity news, Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous driving unit, is reported to be in early discussions to raise more than $15bn at a valuation approaching $100bn, highlighting renewed investor confidence in the long-term potential of robotaxi technology. Separately, a U.S. judge ruled Tesla’s Autopilot marketing was deceptive, recommending a temporary 30-day suspension of its sales licence, though regulators have granted the company time to amend its language.Gold also moved higher, but once again lagged silver, which pushed to a fresh record high just shy of US$66.In Asia FX, the South Korean won slid to its weakest level in over eight months amid sustained foreign equity outflows and steady dollar demand. The Indian rupee edged lower as well, before the Reserve Bank of India stepped in to support the currency via selling USD/INR intervention. Asia-Pac stocks:Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.16%Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.22% Shanghai Composite +0.17%Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.28% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

USD/INR has plunged, with the rupee up around 1% after the central bank of India intervened by selling USD/INR into the forex market. more to comeI've been posting in recent days on the Indian rupee trading at fresh record lows, as a deteriorating global risk backdrop compounds persistent flow imbalances that continued to weigh heavily on the currency. The weaker USD on Tuesday had not translated into a stronger INR around the opening, which seems to have been the trigger for the RBI to at today. If they INR continued to weaken in the face of the USD weakness the depreciation could have extended in a more disorderly manner. something the RBI do not want. As background, market participants said the latest moves lower reflected persistent flow-driven pressure rather than panic. Dealers highlighted an ongoing imbalance between dollar demand and supply, with recurring fixing-related buying, potentially tied to NDF maturities and portfolio outflows, acting as a key source of support for the dollar. Additional demand from state-owned entities has further tightened onshore dollar liquidity.At the same time, importer hedging demand remained firm, driven by concerns over further rupee weakness. Exporter dollar selling had been comparatively muted, as many exporters were holding back at low rupee levels in the hope of more favourable rates. That they might be eyeing today! This asymmetry left the rupee particularly sensitive to even modest increases in dollar demand.Portfolio flows, too, continued to weigh heavily on the currency. Sustained foreign outflows from domestic equity and bond markets overshadowed India’s underlying macro strengths, including solid growth and improving fundamentals. In the current environment, these positives provided only limited insulation against a strong U.S. dollar and cautious global risk sentiment.Importantly, traders described the bout of depreciation as orderly and flow-led rather than driven by speculative capitulation. Volatility remains contained, indicating that the market is adjusting gradually rather than undergoing a disorderly repricing.Absent a reversal in portfolio flows, an improvement in global risk appetite, or a clear positive trade-related catalyst, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure. Without such shifts, a test of fresh record lows cannot be ruled out in the near term despite today's intervention efforts. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Economists have upgraded their outlook for Singapore’s economy in 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum this year, while continuing to expect monetary policy to remain on hold at the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) next review in January.According to the MAS quarterly survey of forecasters, median growth expectations for 2025 have been lifted to 4.1%, a sharp improvement from the 2.4% forecast in the previous survey. The upgrade follows a run of upside surprises in activity data, including a stronger third-quarter GDP print, and aligns with the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s recent move to raise its official growth forecast to around 4.0%. Growth in the fourth quarter is expected to come in at a solid 3.6% year on year, reinforcing the view that the recovery has broadened.Looking beyond next year, economists expect growth to moderate to 2.3% in 2026, consistent with a more mature phase of the cycle and less support from base effects. While the near-term outlook has improved, respondents remain cautious about medium-term risks. Geopolitical tensions were cited as the most prominent downside risk, while concerns about a potential unwinding of the artificial intelligence-driven investment cycle emerged as a new theme in this survey.On the policy front, there is strong consensus that the MAS will leave monetary policy unchanged at its January review, having already kept settings steady in October. Most economists also see policy remaining on hold in April, reflecting subdued inflation pressures and the MAS’s comfort with current conditions. Only a small minority anticipate any tightening by mid-2026.Inflation forecasts remain benign. Core inflation is expected to average 0.7% in 2025, unchanged from the previous survey, while headline inflation is seen at 0.9%. Both measures are expected to pick up modestly in 2026, but remain well within the MAS’s tolerance range.Overall, the survey paints a picture of a Singapore economy that has regained momentum, supported by trade and technology-related activity, while giving policymakers room to remain patient as inflation stays low and risks remain tilted to the downside. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) delivered a stronger-than-expected performance in November, reinforcing signs that the city-state’s trade cycle remains firmly in recovery mode as global demand stabilises. Official data released by Enterprise Singapore showed NODX rose 11.6% year on year, comfortably beating market expectations for a 7.0% increase.The headline gain was supported by both electronics and non-electronics exports, though volatile pharmaceutical shipments again played a prominent role. Electronics exports grew 13.1%, extending October’s outsized surge, as demand for integrated circuits, personal computers and printed circuit boards remained robust. The data point to ongoing strength in the global semiconductor cycle, which continues to underpin regional trade momentum.Non-electronics exports also posted solid growth, rising 11.1% year on year. Pharmaceutical exports surged sharply, reflecting shipment timing and contract volatility rather than a structural step-up, but nevertheless contributed materially to the overall result. Other categories, including pumps and industrial engines, also recorded strong gains, highlighting broader-based resilience beyond electronics.Taken together, the November outcome helped lift cumulative NODX growth to 4.8% in the first 11 months of 2025, signalling a meaningful turnaround from last year’s trade downturn. Total trade expanded 8.8% year on year, moderating from October’s exceptionally strong pace but remaining consistent with an improving external environment.By destination, export performance was mixed. Shipments to the United States, the European Union and Taiwan rose strongly, reflecting firm demand from advanced economies and semiconductor-linked supply chains. In contrast, exports to several regional markets, including Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan and Thailand, declined from a year earlier, underscoring uneven recovery dynamics across Asia.Looking ahead, Singapore’s trade outlook remains constructive but subject to volatility. While electronics demand and pharmaceuticals are providing powerful tailwinds, the reliance on lumpy shipments suggests month-to-month swings are likely. Even so, the November data reinforce expectations that external trade will continue to support growth into year-end, providing a firmer footing for the broader economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China’s prolonged economic slowdown is emerging as a growing headwind for bulk commodities, with UBS and Commonwealth Bank both warning that iron ore prices face increasing downside risks as demand weakens and new supply comes online.Despite a resilient performance so far this year, iron ore prices are looking increasingly vulnerable. UBS highlights a deterioration in China’s domestic demand indicators, pointing to weakening consumption and softening activity across construction and manufacturing. The property sector, a major driver of steel demand, continues to contract, while infrastructure spending has failed to provide a meaningful offset. CBA’s analysis reinforces this view, noting that China’s steel output has fallen sharply as demand from construction remains under pressure.The weakness in property is particularly significant. New construction activity, the most steel-intensive segment of the sector, has declined for several consecutive years, signalling structural rather than cyclical demand challenges. With property and infrastructure together accounting for the bulk of China’s steel consumption, both banks see limited scope for a near-term rebound in iron ore demand.On the supply side, risks are also building. UBS flags rising port inventories and increasing pressure on steelmakers’ margins, while CBA points to the looming start-up of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea as a material source of new seaborne supply. That combination raises the risk of oversupply just as Chinese demand momentum fades, increasing the likelihood that iron ore prices slip below the US$100 per tonne threshold.While recent price resilience has been supported by temporary supply-side frictions — including disruptions to trade flows — both banks caution that these factors are unlikely to provide lasting support. UBS also extends its caution to other industrial metals, warning that fragile domestic consumption in China presents near-term macro risks for base metals more broadly.Looking ahead, UBS suggests Beijing may be holding back on major stimulus until 2026, when the 15th Five-Year Plan comes into effect. Until then, policy support is expected to remain measured, leaving commodities exposed to China’s underlying slowdown. That backdrop challenges the sustainability of recent gains in mining equities and bulk commodity prices into next year. ---The more cautious outlook from UBS and CBA on China and iron ore carries clear implications for Australia’s macro and FX backdrop. Iron ore remains Australia’s single most important export and a key driver of national income, fiscal revenues and terms of trade. A sustained move below US$100/t would represent a material negative shock relative to recent assumptions.For growth, softer iron ore prices would weigh on mining profits, capex intentions and royalty receipts, particularly in Western Australia. While Australia’s economy is more diversified than in past cycles, the mining sector still plays an outsized role in income generation. A weaker commodity backdrop would therefore tilt risks toward slower growth in 2026, especially if China delays meaningful stimulus until the launch of its 15th Five-Year Plan.For the Reserve Bank of Australia, a deteriorating external environment would reinforce the case for patience. Lower commodity prices would act as a disinflationary force via weaker income growth and reduced pricing power, potentially limiting upside risks to inflation. That backdrop would make it harder for the RBA to justify further tightening and could bring forward discussions around eventual easing if domestic momentum softens.Views on the RBA ahead are mixed:Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks riseNAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended holdCBA sees February RBA rate hike as growth runs hot. Citi & NAB also expect February hike.Westpac pushes back on RBA hike calls, sees rates on hold through 2026The Australian dollar is particularly sensitive to iron ore and broader China sentiment. A combination of weaker steel demand, rising global supply and delayed Chinese stimulus would leave the AUD vulnerable, especially against the USD and JPY. While short-term moves may remain driven by global rates and risk appetite, sustained pressure on bulk commodities would cap AUD rallies and bias the currency toward underperformance versus peers.Overall, the UBS and CBA warnings reinforce a more cautious medium-term outlook for Australia, with downside risks to growth, policy flexibility skewing dovish, and the AUD remaining exposed to any further deterioration in China’s demand trajectory. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.