In November, the US Energy Information Administration estimated domestic crude oil production at 13.862 million barrels per day.Not everyone believes it.Today the Dallas Fed released its latest survey of energy executives. It's an anonymous survey so we don't know who said what but this comment turned some heads:There is no way that the U.S oil production data is correctThe thing is, US production keeps on going up as drilling completions and oil prices keep going down. Maybe that's just a lagged effect or a result of longer laterals but there is some skepticism, particularly in the 400k bpd added since April and the Liberation Day drop in crude prices (that was broke this week).It's highly unlikely that the US has fudged oil production numbers but if there was some kind of mistake it would be a gamechanger. For some perspective, the 400k bpd increase alone would be the equivalent of all the oil taken offline in a Venezuela embargo. It would also materially decrease, if not eliminate the oil surplus forecast for 2026.It would also go some way to explain why oil prices have been so resilient this year despite huge OPEC production increases. We touched a five-year low this week but prices have been largely stuck in the $55-60 range for awhile.In any case, changes are coming to the oil market as some of the other comments in the Dallas Fed survey highlight:Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm’s wells noneconomic.if economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026.Our company now runs one drilling rig, compared to three rigs earlier in 2025. Our projected drilling schedule for the next several years contemplates one drilling rig of activityMy belief is that the administration is coordinating with Saudi Arabia to either talk about or add additional barrels to the market, which could create leverage over Russian negotiations and also suppress oil price inflationary impacts through the upcoming 2026 midterm electionClients are concerned about a potentially large oil glut in first and second quarters of 2026I believe the glut in the global oil market is overstated and, if applicable, temporary. In any event, if the number of wells drilled declines to any significant degree as some commentators suggest, there will not be a glut, and [there] likely [will be] a decline in U.S. oil production given the obvious rate of depletion of existing wells. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Risk appetite continues to deteriorate in the stock market, led by some of the highest-flying tech names. It's likely year-end profit taking but could also reflect some reconsiderations around the AI trader, particularly as Google releases Gemini 3.0 flash and it scores as well as some of the top-line models from others. AUD/USD is always a risk-on/risk-off trade and that's reflected it today's price moves. At times though, it tracks commodities more closely as a global growth proxy. We're not seeing that today as gold, silver and oil are all stronger, along with base metals. Notably though, AUD has had a nice run since late November, climbing to 0.6680 at the highs from 0.6420 on November 20. Zooming out even further, it's been consolidating in the 0.64-0.67 range since May as we search for broader signals on global and domestic growth.On the home front, Australian inflation has proven resilient and that has the RBA no longer talking about hiking rates and the market pricing in H2 rate hikes next year. Should that unfold, it will be a tailwind or the Aussie, particularly if the Fed cuts rates and is persistently dovish with a new Chairman.The drag for AUD could come from China. This week's data on retail sales was weak and housing remains a sore spot. China pledged this year to spur consumer spending and that just hasn't materialized. We could get fresh talk about stimulus in the coming months and that could help but the baseline is increasingly centered on a persistently sluggish consumer. If so, that will dampen demand for Australian exports and be a drag on minerals prices. Tied into that is the US-China trade war. It's at a standstill now and this week, Treasury Sec Bessent said China has been living up to its side of the deal but that can change quickly. The thinking right now is that Trump is more-focused on affordability as poll numbers dip but his knee-jerk to trouble is tariffs and that's going to be hard to shake.Overall, the market should continue to be comfortable in the 0.64-0.67 range. We're retreating from the top end of that now and we will wait for some kind of definitive break. Right now, I'm cautious of equity market selling from now through the first few weeks of the year but that will depend on how the AI trade evolves. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The reversal in Oracle shares this year is one for the history books.The company was an AI high-flyer for much of the year in a March to $250 from $170. Then it had a spike for the ages in September after announcing earnings.If you ever needed a lesson on how quickly the AI narrative can turn against you, look at this chart. We've gone from "Larry Ellison is the King of AI" to "Show me the money" in less than a quarter. That jump to $345 briefly made Larry Ellison the world's richest man. The narrative was perfect. Ellison was pitching Oracle as the backend for the entire AI revolution. The headline number wasn't revenue; it was Remaining Performance Obligations.The backlog exploded to over $455 billion (and later $523bn).The market saw the OpenAI partnership as validation (and the turn against OpenAI lately reverses it)Multi-cloud deals with AWS and Google made Oracle look essential and neutral.Traders didn't care about margins or capex, hey just saw "OpenAI" and "Backlog" and hit the buy button. There was surely a short-squeeze component and an options-driven frenzy as well.What killed the vibe? Two things: a capex rethink and delays.The Earnings Reality Check (Dec 10) The Q2 earnings report last week was the final nail. Revenue missed but the real killer was guidance as Oracle raised its capital expenditure forecast to $50 billion for FY2026. Over the past two months, investors suddenly remembered that borrowing billions to build data centers isn't free money. Much of that came from the bond market as Oracle CDS surged.The narrative further broke on Friday when Bloomberg reported delays in data center delivery for OpenAI, potentially pushing timelines to 2028. The whole bull case was built on speed—that Oracle could build clusters faster than Microsoft. If that advantage goes, so does the valuation.Now with shares down another 5% today and $177, they're barely positive on the year and down almost 50% fro the September high. Let's hope that's not a sign to come for the AI trade in general but you can't help but worry about what happens when the market starts asking about where the profits will come from to go along with the massive spending. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It's a tough time of year to try and make sense of market moves but I suspect we're seeing profit taking and position squaring into year end. Some of the high-flying power-generation stocks are getting beaten up today and Oracle continues to crater. We also saw Tesla hitting all-time highs this week, which I suspect was at least partially due to short covering.Nvidia, Google and Broadcom are all among the worst performers in the S&P 500 as well.The S&P 500 is down 0.5% while the Nasdaq is down 0.8% in another sign of where the selling is coming from.In terms of the short-covering angle, some of the best performers are Moderna, Service Now and Chipotle, all laggards this year. So overall, I wouldn't try to put any kind of macro or bigger stock market theme into the price action. I do suspect there is some real angst about AI and that could lead to some heavier tech selling at the turn of the year. For now though, this is flows not fundamentals. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Technical TakeawaysSuccessful Defense: Gold buyers successfully defended the 100-hour moving average yesterday, using the dip as a buying opportunity to reignite the uptrend.Current Momentum: The precious metal is trading up roughly $37 (+0.85%) on the day at $4338.31, with intraday highs reaching $4349.50.Immediate Upside Targets: Bulls are now focused on breaking the highest-ever daily close at $4355.62 and the intraday all-time high of $4381.84.Trendline Resistance: A breakout to new highs brings a daily channel trendline near $4419.64 into focus.The Downside Risk: The bullish bias remains valid as long as the price holds above the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near $4301.Buyers Resurface: The Bounce Off the 100-Hour Moving AverageThe current rally in Gold is a direct result of yesterday’s technical test. After a brief correction lower, the price tested its 100-hour moving average, a level that often acts as a barometer for short-term sentiment.Sellers attempted to push the price below this key technical indicator but failed to gain traction. Instead, willing buyers stepped in against the level, defending the trend. This inability to break lower gave the "go-ahead" signal for bulls to re-enter, driving the price back up. As of today's session, that momentum has extended, pushing Gold to a session high of $4349.50.The Bullish Case: Mapping the Path to New Record HighsWith the 100-hour moving average firmly established as support, the path of least resistance appears to be to the upside. Traders are now watching a specific sequence of resistance levels:Friday’s High ($4353.57): The first hurdle is the swing high from last Friday.Highest Daily Close ($4355.62): Just above that lies the highest closing level on record, achieved on October 20. A close above this level would be a significant bullish signal.Intraday All-Time High ($4381.84): Clearing the closing high exposes the ultimate target—the intraday all-time high.Channel Resistance ($4419.64): If Gold enters "blue sky" territory above the all-time high, the focus shifts to the topside channel trendline visible on the daily chart. This dynamic resistance currently comes in near $4419.64 and is rising each day.The Bearish Scenario: What Would Turn the Tide?Despite the bullish momentum, traders must manage their risk. The 100-hour moving average, now rising to approximately $4301, remains the critical line in the sand.For sellers to claim a victory and shift the short-term bias, they must push the price back down to—and through—this moving average. A sustained break below $4301 would encourage further downside probing, exposing the 200-hour moving average (the green line on the chart), which is currently rising at $4254.19.Conclusion: Buyers Maintain ControlOverall, the technical narrative is clear: Sellers had their opportunity yesterday during the dip to the 100-hour moving average, but they failed to capitalize. By holding that support, buyers have reaffirmed their control. As long as that support holds, the market's eyes remain locked on the all-time high levels ahead. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -1812KGasoline +4808K vs +2062K expDistillates +1712K vs +1178K expThere was a huge draw in the private data released yesterday, so 'expectations' were for something more-bullish than the consensus.Crude -9300KGasoline -4800K Distillates +2500KAs a result, we're getting some selling pressure on oil after the data. This is an unusually large divergence. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Technical TakeawaysBearish Shift: The AUDUSD is undergoing a downside correction as sellers gain short-term market control.Critical Zone Breached: Price has fallen back below the historically significant 0.66247–0.6635 swing area on the 4-hour chart.Hourly Resistance Stacked: The 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 are now acting as a dynamic ceiling for price action.The Line in the Sand: Bears need a sustained break below the 38.2% Fibonacci support cluster at 0.6580–0.6584 to accelerate the downside momentum.The AUDUSD pair is currently facing renewed selling pressure, executing a downside correction that suggests a shift in near-term sentiment. After recent bullish attempts, the technical landscape indicates that sellers are trying to wrestle back control from buyers—at least for the short-term horizon.This shift is evidenced by price action breaking below several key technical hurdles that had previously supported the pair.The 4-Hour Chart View: Breaking Historical Support ZonesA broader look at the 4-hour chart reveals a significant development: the price has slid back below a critical swing area defined between 0.66247 and 0.6635.This is not a new technical level; this swing area has deep historical relevance, going back to mid-July. Throughout the period from July to early October, this zone acted frequently as both a stubborn ceiling and a supportive floor.In the last few weeks, this area was revisited, resulting in messy, chopping up-and-down trading as the market struggled to find a clear direction around it. However, today's decisive move back below this level is significant. It signals that the previous support has failed, tilting the immediate technical bias firmly to the downside.Hourly Chart Analysis: Moving Averages Turn ResistanceDrilling down to the tighter hourly chart timeframe confirms the bearish shift. The price has also dropped below major moving averages, adding confluence to the resistance overhead.Specifically, the price is now trading below both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages. Currently, these moving averages are clustered just above that aforementioned swing area, near the 0.6644 level.When price falls below these key averages, their role often flips from providing dynamic support to acting as dynamic resistance. The clustering of the historical swing zone (0.6635) and these moving averages (0.6644) creates a formidable barrier for any immediate bullish recovery attempts.Short-Term Trading Scenarios: Defining RiskFor traders looking at this market, the technical breaks provide clear levels against which to define risk.Those looking to lean into this corrective move lower could utilize the swing area ceiling up to 0.6635 as primary resistance. Alternatively, more conservative traders might look to the 100 and 200-hour moving averages near 0.6644 as the ultimate "line in the sand" for a bearish trade setup. As long as the price remains below these levels, the path of least resistance remains down.The Path Ahead: Critical Support TargetsWhile the sellers have won the opening battle of this correction, they still have significant work to do on the downside to truly make the longer-term buyers anxious and fearful.The next major test for the bears is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the significant move up from the November low to the December high. This retracement level currently comes in at 0.6584. Further strengthening this support zone is a previous swing high going back to November 13, located at 0.6580.This 0.6580–0.6584 cluster is critical support. For the bearish bias to increase significantly and for the correction to turn into a broader trend reversal, this level must be broken decisively. Until then, buyers may still view dips as opportunities near major Fibonacci support. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewToday's stock market heatmap reveals a mix of performances across different sectors, with particular focus on fluctuations within the technology and consumer cyclical spaces.? Technology Sector: The technology sector displays variegated movements. Notably, Oracle (ORCL) faces a significant drop of 2.82%, possibly driven by recent earnings or macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. Meanwhile, Microsoft (MSFT) shows modestly positive results with a 0.10% uptick.? Consumer Cyclical Sector: Strength is evident here, led by Amazon (AMZN) with gains of 0.87%, reflecting solid consumer confidence. Electric vehicle giant Tesla (TSLA) also contributes with a 0.40% increase.? Financial Sector: Financial entities present a positive outlook, as JPMorgan Chase (JPM) climbs 0.91% and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) remains stable with a 0.03% rise.? Healthcare Sector: The healthcare sector shows slight optimism, spotlighted by Eli Lilly (LLY) at a modest 0.13% gain. Conversely, companies like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) dipped by 0.07%, indicating potential investor caution.Market Mood and TrendsToday's market vibe pulsates with mixed emotions as investors weigh tech sector uncertainties against consumer cyclical optimism. Semiconductor firms, like Nvidia (NVDA) dropping 1.51%, seem to struggle under potentially tightening financial conditions or lifecycle changes in product demand.Meanwhile, communication services and consumer electronics maintain neutral to positive ground, with Google (GOOGL) inching up 0.03%.Strategic RecommendationsThe current market tableau advises a cautious yet opportunistic stance. Investors might consider:Diversification: Invest across varied sectors to buffer against volatility, focusing on stable sectors like consumer cyclical and financials.Monitoring Tech Volatility: Keep an eye on technology, specifically semiconductor stocks, for turnaround opportunities or potential further dips.Long-Term Investments in Healthcare: Long-term plays in healthcare might provide stable returns amidst existing uncertainties, given the sector's essential nature.Stay updated with the continuous streams of financial news and insights on InvestingLive.com to optimize your investment strategies further. Keeping a dynamic eye on market developments is key to navigating the ever-evolving landscape. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The machine shown in this picture is probably the most-important one in the world. It's from Dutch company ASML and it's used to fabricate the most-precise computer chips.Last year, the US began restricting their use and export into China. Naturally, that caused some panic in Beijing and the country's resources were marshalled at building a replacement. A report today from Reuters says they have at least partially succeeded. Citing sources, the report says researchers created a working prototype, not just now but in "early 2025" though it's still undergoing testing and hasn't produced a working chip.That sounds a bit dubious but they're extremely complicated machines. China's aim is to produce its own chips by 2028.If that's the case, the US will then lose whatever moat it has in chips. The question is whether the US can be so far ahead in AI at that point that it won't matter.As for the market reaction, shares of ASML dipped on the headlines but it appears as though the market had largely priced in this development already. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Key Takeaways100-Hour MA Breach: For the first time since late November, USDCAD buyers have pushed the price above the 100-hour moving average (1.3768), snapping a streak of 5 failed attempts.The Next Major Hurdle: The recovery is facing stiff resistance near the 1.3800 level and the falling 200-hour moving average (1.38055).Neutral Bias: While the immediate bearish grip has loosened, the technical bias is currently neutral as the pair trades between the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages.Upside Targets: A break above 1.3805 opens the door toward the 50% midpoint at 1.38394 and the 200-day moving average at 1.38678.Critical Support: If the breakout fails, traders will eye the key support floor between 1.3720 and 1.3726.The Bearish Trend Takes a Pause: Breaking the 100-Hour Moving AverageFor the past several weeks, the USDCAD pair has been locked in a disciplined downtrend, guided strictly by technical indicators. Specifically, the 100-hour moving average has acted as a rigid ceiling. Going back to November 26, the price tested this moving average on 5 separate occasions.In each of those previous instances, willing sellers stepped in to defend the level, keeping the bias firmly to the downside. This relentless selling pressure kept dip buyers on the defensive as the price trended lower and lower.However, the price action today marks a potential shift in character. USDCAD has finally extended above that 100-hour moving average, which currently comes in at 1.3768. The pair stretched to a session high of 1.3795 so far, signaling that the sellers' grip is loosening.Step 1 Complete, Step 2 Awaits: The Battle at 1.3800While the move above the 100-hour MA is a victory for the bulls ("Step 1"), they have not yet won the war. The rally has stalled ahead of the next critical technical cluster: the 1.3800 natural resistance level and the falling 200-hour moving average at 1.38055.For buyers to gain genuine control and force sellers to cover their positions, the price must break—and stay—above this 200-hour moving average. Until that "Step 2" is achieved, the market remains in a state of limbo. The buyers have managed to neutralize the short-term bearish trend, but they haven't yet generated enough momentum to confirm a bullish reversal.Consequently, the current bias is neutral. The pair is trading in the zone between the two moving averages, with the 100-hour MA providing support below and the 200-hour MA providing resistance above.Bullish Scenario: Upside Targets to WatchIf the buyers can muster the strength to break above the 200-hour moving average (1.38055), it would trigger a more significant technical breakout.Target 1: The first upside objective would be the 50% midpoint of the move up from the June low, located at 1.38394.Target 2: Beyond that, the focus would shift to the longer-term 200-day moving average at 1.38678.Bearish Scenario: Protecting the Support FloorTraders must also be wary of a "false breakout." If the price fails to sustain its momentum and rotates back below the 100-hour moving average at 1.3768, the short-term bullish case would collapse.In that scenario, sellers would likely retarget the critical support floor established in August and September, located between 1.3720 and 1.3726. This area is proving to be a tough nut to crack; just yesterday, the price dropped within 3 pips of this zone before stalling and bouncing, as buyers leaned heavily against this long-term floor. A return to this level - and below - would put the bears back in the driver's seat and have traders reigniting the trend to the downside.Watch the video analysisIn the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving USDCAD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.Be aware. Be prepared. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fed Chair candidates are falling over themselves to explain how inflation really isn't 2.8% y/y, as it was in the most-recent PCE report. They're stripping out rent and portfolio management fees and tariffs to say that inflation is basically on target."Tariffs are not a source of persistent inflation," candidate Chris Waller said today.This is clearly an attempt to make the appropriate dovish talking points to please Trump. Now whether that charade continues after they actually get the job is anyone's guess but time will tell.Of course, the one-off factors swing both ways and that's something they're completely ignoring. WTI crude oil is down 23% year-to-date. That's a big drag on inflation that will continue for a while as lower crude prices filter through.But it won't continue forever. If you're watching oil company budgets this month, they're being trimmed. No one is making money at $55 WTI and that's going to do what low oil prices always do -- cure low prices. Global oil demand continues to rise and the OPEC excess production will be trimmed and oil prices will inevitably rise again.Of course, when crude prices do go up again, the same trio of Fed candidates will be ultra-quick to exclude energy costs in the PCE calculation. That won't be a good look.Ultimately though, the scorecard is what happens on inflation. We've just gone through a period of high prices that were a reminder to everyone of the costs. They were extremely disruptive and led to the topping of virtually every elected Western government; it also eroded faith in money and central banks. Still, it's largely seen as a pandemic one-off. A repeat would be exponentially-more damaging and would risk unmooring inflation expectations for a generation.In addition, there are other bubbles that are being formed by inflation that will take many years to unwind.The Fed is traditionally the thought-leader of global central banks but it's not clear there are enough people left to fight off inflation. We are also dealing with the breakdown of the global trading system and disruption of AI. How that impacts jobs, inflation and the economy is hard to predict but one thing that everyone in the economy should be able to rely on is sound money. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Waller has taken a really bearish turn on the economy. The other Fed candidates are arguing for rate cuts based on productivity but he's arguing for them based on a poor economy.2026 could turn out to be a better year for economy, hopes that helps job marketInflation is above target but should come down over next few monthsInflation expectations are anchoredFed can go at a moderate pace, doesn't need dramatic actionJob market says Fed should continue to cut ratesFed is 50-100 bps above neutralHart to say tariffs caused job market weaknessInflation is under control and the Fed will keep it under controlDoesn't see much downside risks for tariffsWaller met with Trump this week for the Fed job. This probably isn't what the President wanted to hear.Maybe he will get the job but in all likelihood, Waller will look back on this as an episode that destroyed his reputation and credibility for nothing. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

USD firmer into the NA session, supported by weaker UK inflation and higher US yields, with EURUSD edging lower to 1.1714, holding above 1.1700 and key midpoint support ahead of an ECB decision expected to leave rates unchanged with a data-dependent tone.USDJPY softer at 155.45, trading between the 4-hour 200-bar (155.265) and 100-bar (155.700) MAs, as sellers continue to lean against resistance, while markets price a 25 bp BoJ hike on Friday and focus on forward guidance.GBPUSD the weakest major, down to 1.3335 (-0.63%) after softer-than-expected UK inflation, reinforcing expectations that the BoE could cut rates tomorrow and keeping the bias tilted toward future rate cuts.IN the forex as the NA session begins, the USD is higher helped by weaker inflation data out the UK and higher yields in the US to start the North American session. The EURUSD is edging lower at 1.1714, down -0.26% on the day, holding above the 1.1700 level (the low price came in at 1.1704). And above the midpoint of the move down from the mid September high to the November low at 1.16929. Tomorrow the ECB will announce their interest rate decision, and market expect the ECB to hold rates unchanged, with policymakers likely to emphasize a data-dependent stance. Inflation has eased somewhat but core prices remain sticky, so the ECB is expected to signal that it’s watching incoming data closely before making further moves.The USDJPY is shorter at 155.46, down 0.48% , with buyers pressing the pair back between the 200 and 100 bar moving averages on the 4 hour chart at 155.265 and 155.700. The current price is trading at 155.45 between those levels. Last week toward the 2nd half of the week, sellers leaned in near the 100 bar moving average keeping the bias to the downside. The Bank of Japan on answer interest rate decision on Friday. Markets are expecting the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday, lifting the policy rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which would mark the highest level in roughly three decades. The expectation is driven by firmer inflation trends, improving wage growth, and stronger business sentiment, all of which have reinforced confidence that Japan can continue its gradual exit from ultra-easy policy. With a hike largely priced in, the market focus will be on the BoJ’s guidance and tone, particularly whether it signals further tightening ahead or emphasizes a cautious, step-by-step approach.Meanwhile, the GBPUSD is the weakest of the three, trading at 1.3335, -0.63% after weaker than expected inflation data. The BOE is now expected to cut the policy rate tomorrow, following softer-than-expected UK inflation data overnight. Given the soft UK employment and inflation data this week, the BoE might not only deliver the rate cut, but also a more dovish tone. The market has been expecting at least one more rate cut in 2026, but traders are now starting to bet on at least two more cuts next year.In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) look at these three major pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks, and the targets for each as the North American session unfoldsUK: Inflation cooled more than expectedUK inflation data came in softer across the board, reinforcing the narrative that price pressures continue to ease.Headline CPI y/y fell to 3.2%, below 3.5% expected and 3.6% prior, confirming further disinflation.Core CPI y/y eased to 3.2%, missing forecasts of 3.4%, signaling broader-based cooling.RPI y/y dropped to 3.8% vs 4.2% expected, another downside surprise.House price inflation (HPI y/y) slowed to 1.7% vs 2.4% expected, highlighting continued housing-market softness.PPI input prices rose 0.3% m/m, slightly below expectations, while PPI output prices rose 0.1%, matching forecasts.UK takeaway: Inflation undershot expectations, strengthening the case for BoE rate cuts later and it has led to sharp downside pressure in the GBPUSD. The price of the pair is now below both the 100 and 200 day MAs again below 1.3359 and 1.33465 respectively. Eurozone: Data mixed, growth concerns persistEurozone data was less dramatic than the UK release but leaned mildly dovish.German Ifo Business Climate fell to 87.6, below 88.2 expected, signaling ongoing weakness in Germany.Final Eurozone CPI y/y at 2.1%, slightly below forecasts of 2.2%.Final Core CPI y/y held at 2.4%, unchanged and in line with expectations.Eurozone takeaway: Core inflation remains sticky, but close to the 2.0% target. Growth indicators remain soft, keeping the ECB cautious and firmly data-dependent.Overall market viewUK data delivered a clear downside inflation surprise, supportive of a dovish BoE outlook.Eurozone data was mixed, with soft growth offsetting steady core inflation.Relative surprise favored GBP weakness, while EUR reaction was more muted.As North American traders enter the fray for the day, US equity futures are implying a positive open, looking to shake off yesterday’s mixed performance. While US debt yields are ticking higher, the commodity sector is seeing significant strength—led by a sharp rally in Silver—while European markets show a divergent picture.US Stock Futures & Yesterday’s RecapWall Street looks set to open on firmer footing this morning.Dow Jones Industrial Average: Futures are implying a gain of 82 points.S&P 500: Futures are indicating a rise of 18.49 points.NASDAQ: The tech-heavy index continues to show relative strength, with futures up 97 points.This pre-market optimism follows a divergent session yesterday where the Dow fell -302.30 points (-0.62%) and the S&P 500 slipped -16.25 points (-0.24%). The NASDAQ, however, bucked the trend, rising 54.05 points (0.23%), and looks to extend that momentum today.US Treasury Yields Edge HigherSelling pressure in the bond market is pushing yields up across the curve as the session begins:2-Year Yield: Up 3.1 basis points to 3.510%.10-Year Yield: Up 2.9 basis points to 4.178%.30-Year Yield: Up 2.3 basis points to 4.845%.Commodities & Crypto: Silver Outshines GoldThe commodity complex is flashing green this morning, with precious metals and energy finding support. However, cryptocurrencies are lagging.Silver: The standout performer, surging +3.45% to trade at $65.92.Crude Oil (USOIL): Trading firmly higher at $56.22, up +1.92%.Gold: Continues its ascent, trading up +0.36% at $4,317.79.Bitcoin (BTCUSD): In contrast to the metals, Bitcoin is under pressure, down -0.97% trading at $86,994.European Markets: A Mixed PictureEuropean indices are trading with mixed results, with the UK's FTSE 100 significantly outperforming its continental peers.UK FTSE 100 (UKX): Leading the pack with a strong gain of +1.48%.Germany (DEU40): Roughly flat, trading down slightly by -0.06%.France (CAC40): Showing softness, down -0.23%.Italy (FTMIB): Trading in positive territory, up +0.47%.Spain (IBEX35): Also edging higher, up +0.26%. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:UK November CPI +3.2% v +3.5% y/y expectedBritish Pound drops across the board as UK inflation surprises to the downsideGBP/USD on the rocks after softer UK inflation data todayUK FTSE 100 Technical Analysis: Soft UK CPI boosts the stock market, BoE rate cut betsJapan bond yields continue to surge higher with eyes on the BOJ later this weekBOJ should avoid premature rate hike, says ex-deputy governorEurozone November final CPI +2.1% vs +2.2% y/y prelimGermany December Ifo business climate index 87.6 vs 88.2 expectedAfter falling to a multi-year low, crude oil recovers on Venezuela, Russia sanctions newsJapan visitor arrivals stay strong in November despite China boycottMarkets:USD leads, GBP lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.4%US 10-year yields up 2.5 bps to 4.174%Gold up 0.3% to $4,317.33WTI crude oil up 1.9% to $56.32Bitcoin down 0.9% to $87,040The key risk event of the session came early on in the form of the UK inflation report. The numbers underwhelmed on estimates, reflecting softer price pressures and that led to a drop in sterling as UK stocks rallied.Both the headline and core readings came in below expectations, with the details revealing a modest drop in food prices and core goods prices. The latter likely owes to heavy discounts on Black Friday sales but still, it's enough to be quite a contrast to what we saw in November last year at least.That being said, services inflation remains a sticking point as it continues to rest comfortably above 4%. The trend there is what will matter most for the BOE in the months ahead, so we'll have to wait and see.In any case, market players took to the report in solidifying expectations for a BOE rate cut tomorrow with perhaps quicker intentions for another to follow that up next year.Prior to the UK inflation report, the next full 25 bps rate cut was priced in for July 2026. Now, that is bumped forward to April 2026. But looking out from now to the end of next year, there is ~69 bps of rate cuts priced in and that is not much changed from ~67 bps of rate cuts before the data. As such, that might put a floor on how much the pound might drop in the aftermath to all this.GBP/USD fell from 1.3370 to 1.3311 before recovering a little to 1.3337 currently. The UK FTSE is putting in a solid shift in being up 1.5% on the day for now.Besides that, the dollar was generally firmer in the major currencies space. EUR/USD is down 0.3% to 1.1715 with price action locked in between large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is seen higher by 0.5% to 155.50 levels as we see a solid rebound from below 155.00 yesterday.In the equities space, European indices are keeping steadier and not all too much changed besides UK stocks. The DAX is flat while the CAC 40 is down 0.1%, so that's not leaving much to work with. That despite US futures holding slight gains ahead of the open later. S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% on the day after a slow start earlier.As for commodities, silver is continuing its hot streak with over 3% gains again today in a push to retest $66 earlier on. We're seeing price keep around $65.85 for now, with the bullish run still sticking in December. Meanwhile, gold is also holding higher with 0.3% gains to $4,317 on the day. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:The RBI decided to intervene after the recent selloff in the Indian RupeeThe US unemployment rate surprised to the upsideUSDINR remains skewed to the upside, buyers will look for key technical breaksUS CPI coming up tomorrowFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:We finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and the data surprised to the downside. In fact, despite the headline number slightly beating expectations, the more important unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% vs 4.4% prior.There were some positives as the permanent job losers rate was a bit lower, but the main takeaway is that the trend remains to the upside and that the unemployment rate was higher than the Fed’s year-end forecast. Fed Chair Powell made it pretty clear in his last press conference that they are more focused on the labour market weakness, and they can tolerate some higher inflation given the transitory expectations. This suggests that we could see another rate cut sooner than expected. The market might start to price that in with more conviction if tomorrow’s US CPI data doesn’t overshoot. INR:The RBI decided to finally intervene again to stop the recent selloff in the Indian Rupee. The last intervention was in October, but as it usually happens when the fundamentals remain against a currency, the INR eventually fell to new lows. We can expect the Rupee to weaken again in the next months, but in the short-term, traders will look for key technical breaks before piling into USDINR longs again. USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDINR sold off right from the upper bound of the rising channel around the 91.00 handle following the RBI’s intervention. The natural target for the sellers should be the lower bound of the channel around the 89.00 level, but they will need to keep the price below the key zones.The buyers, on the other hand, will continue to step in around the key levels to keep targeting new record highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced around the upward trendline as dip-buyers immediately stepped in. The price is now trading right around the key 90.40 level. The sellers will likely step in here with a defined risk above the level to position for a drop into the 89.70 level next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price rising above the 90.40 level to increase the bullish bets into new all-time highs.USDINR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much else we can add here as the sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels to target new lows, while the buyers will look for a break higher to position for a rally into a new record high.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The UK CPI report here earlier today underwhelmed, missing on estimates as price pressures were softer than expected in November. That solidified the conviction for a BOE rate cut this week but also fanned the flames for a potentially quicker move in following that up for next year. As such, that's putting pressure on the pound today with GBP/USD running into trouble on two fronts as the dollar is also keeping firmer across the board on the day.As the dust settles for a bit, we're seeing GBP/USD now hold around 1.3330 - down 0.7% on the day. That's a little off the lows of 1.3311 but the technical equation has shifted quite significantly in favour of sellers. Let's take a look.The near-term chart shows a meaningful break below the key hourly moving averages, with sellers establishing price action below both the 100 (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages for the first time since 24 November; almost a month ago. The drop now sees the near-term bias switch to being more bearish even as the overall market conviction towards the BOE hasn't shifted all too much.Traders are pricing in ~69 bps of rate cuts through 2026, up just marginally from around ~67 bps before the UK CPI report. However, the next full 25 bps rate cut after the one this week is now priced for April 2026 and that is bumped forward from July 2026. So, that at least is something.But amid a stronger dollar as well, the technical side of things is giving an added push to weigh GBP/USD lower on the day as seen above. And adding to the near-term breakdown as we are seeing, the daily chart also offers more validation to sellers:The confluence of the 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages is seen at 1.3345-59 in the chart above. And the latest drop is threatening to break that, reaffirming a more bearish bias once again in favour of sellers.Coupled with a breakdown in the near-term chart, it is added technical conviction for sellers to put pressure on cable to drive the pair lower as we look towards the sessions ahead.There will be some minor support closer to 1.3300 but if that gives way, the pair could be positioned for a steeper decline - at least based on what the chart might suggest.However, the dollar side of the equation might threaten to mess things up with the greenback having been rather vulnerable more often than not in December trading. And as luck would have it, we only have roughly three more "real" trading days to the year before the Christmas and New Year holiday kicks in next week. That will impact liquidity conditions and make it even tougher to read into any of the exacerbated market moves on thinner flows. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:US unemployment rate surprises to the upsideHigher probabilities we see another Fed rate cut sooner than expectedThe stock market remains supported by the Fed's dovish reaction functionUS CPI coming up tomorrowFUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWWe finally got the most recent US jobs report yesterday, and the data surprised to the downside. In fact, despite the headline number slightly beating expectations, the more important unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% vs 4.4% prior.There were some positives as the permanent job losers rate was a bit lower, but the main takeaway is that the trend remains to the upside and that the unemployment rate was higher than the Fed’s year-end forecast. Fed Chair Powell made it pretty clear in his last press conference that they are more focused on the labour market weakness, and they can tolerate some higher inflation given the transitory expectations. This suggests that we could see another rate cut sooner than expected. The market might start to price that in with more conviction if tomorrow’s US CPI data doesn’t overshoot. This should be supportive for the stock market and we could get the Santa Rally with new all-time highs before year-end. S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that the S&P 500 bounced from the key support zone around the 6800 level. The buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally into a new all-time high. The sellers will need the price to break below the support to open the door for a bigger correction back into the October lows.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the recent rangebound price action with the downside limited by the 6800 support. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, but if the price were to come back down to the support, we can expect the buyers to step in again to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will need a downside breakout to start targeting the 6541 level next.S&P 500 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we can see that we have a minor resistance around the 6885 level. The sellers will likely continue to step in there, with a defined risk above the most recent high, to position for a move back into the 6800 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into a new all-time high. The red lines define the average daily range for today.UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we get the US CPI report. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +2.1%Core CPI +2.4% vs +2.4% y/y prelimPrior +2.4%The important point of the release is that core annual inflation is seen steady at 2.4%, unchanged from October. The main sticking point in terms of inflation pressures is still Germany and that represents a headache for the ECB, with it being the region's largest economy. As such, they are forced to stay on the sidelines until pressures there moderate further.At the same time, we did get the euro area wages and labour costs data for Q3. The former is seen at +3.0% year-on-year with the latter at +3.3% year-on-year. But as a reminder, negotiated wages in the euro area was seen at 1.87% in Q3 and that is down from 3.95% in Q2.In any case, all of this just serves to reinforce the narrative that the ECB will remain on the sidelines for the time being. That at least until there is some meaningful change to the economic landscape, especially in Germany on inflation, as we look to next year.EUR/USD continues to trade at 1.1717 in European morning trade, down 0.3% on the day. The pair continues to be boxed in by large option expiries at 1.1700 and 1.1750 with little conviction to go running before we get to US trading later. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

KEY POINTS:Oil fell to the lowest level since 2021 yesterday following soft US jobs reportA major breakdown was avoided as Trump ordered a total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankersPrices rose further this morning following the news that the US was reading new Russia sanctions if Putin rejected the peace dealGEOPOLITICAL NEWS:Crude oil yesterday fell to the lowest level since 2021 on demand fears following the soft US jobs report where the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% vs 4.4% prior.We avoided a major breakdown as Trump overnight ordered a total blockade on sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. Crude oil got a boost from the news on tighter supply expectations. This morning, prices rose further following the news that the US was readying new Russia sanctions if Putin rejected the peace deal. This is another negative news for the supply side and therefore a positive catalyst for higher oil prices. MARKET REACTION:In the chart below, we can see the two recent catalysts that helped crude oil to recover all yesterday's losses. In the bigger picture, the market has been mostly rangebound with a negative skew on cautious demand outlook and higher supply fears as OPEC+ kept increasing output.Looking ahead, if we get to a point where central banks are forced to hike rates again in 2026, then the demand outlook could worsen further and weigh on crude oil prices. On the other hand, if central banks continue to ease and economic data shows an improvement in labour markets and growth, then we will likely see oil trending higher.OPEC+ increases in supply despite the weakening in global demand due to US tariffs has also been a key factor in oil weakness this year. A more "hawkish" stance from the cartel in 2026 should add further support. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Introduction: What Is Forex?Forex, short for foreign exchange, is the global market where currencies are traded. It is the biggest and most active financial market globally, with more than $7.5 trillion traded every day (Bank for International Settlements, 2022). Unlike equity markets that have specific opening and closing times, the forex market operates 24 hours a day, five days a week. It starts in Sydney, moves to Tokyo, then London, and finally ends in New York.Forex trading involves exchanging one currency for another with the aim of making a profit when the prices change. Currencies are always traded in pairs. When you buy one currency, you are also selling another.Example: In the EUR/USD pair, the euro (EUR) is the first currency, and the U.S. dollar (USD) is the second. If EUR/USD is trading at 1.1650, it means one euro is worth 1.1650 U.S. dollars.The buying and selling in forex are affected by global events, interest rates, and how investors feel about the market. Because the forex market is so large and liquid, traders can quickly enter and exit positions, usually at low costs. This ease of access is one reason many beginners choose to start here.How Does Forex Trading Work?Forex trading means buying one currency while selling another at the same time. Since exchange rates show how much one currency is worth compared to another, forex prices are always shown in pairs.Base currency: This is the first currency in the pair (e.g., EUR in EUR/USD).Quote currency: This is the second currency in the pair (e.g., USD in EUR/USD).Price quote: If EUR/USD = 1.1650, it means 1 euro = 1.1650 U.S. dollars.When you trade, you are guessing whether the base currency will go up or down compared to the quote currency:Go long (buy): If you believe the base currency will increase in value, you buy the pair.Go short (sell): If you believe it will get weaker, you liquidate the pair.Each quote has two prices:The bid price: This is the price at which you can sell the currency pair.The ask price: This is the price at which you can buy the currency pair.The minor difference between these two prices is referred to as the spread, which is essentially the fee charged by the broker.Example: If EUR/USD has a buy price of 1.1650 and a sell price of 1.1648, and you buy at 1.1650 expecting the euro to rise, if later the sell price goes up to 1.1700, you can close the trade there for a profit of 50 pips (1.1700 – 1.1650). If instead, the value decreases to 1.1600, you would take a loss of 50 pips. This ability to trade whether prices are going up or down makes forex more flexible than conventional investing.Types of Currency PairsIn forex, every trade involves two currencies, but not all currency pairs are equally popular or easy to trade. Currency pairs fall into three primary categories: major pairs, minor pairs, and exotic pairs.Major PairsMajor pairs always include the U.S. dollar (USD), which is the most traded currency in the world, paired with another major currency like the euro, yen, or pound. These pairs are the most actively traded and usually have the lowest spreads, making them a good starting point for beginners.Examples: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHFMinor PairsMinor pairs, also known as cross-currency pairs, do not include the U.S. dollar but involve other major currencies. They are not as actively traded as major pairs, which means their spreads are a bit wider, but they still trade actively every day.Examples: EUR/GBP, AUD/JPY, NZD/CHFExotic PairsExotic pairs combine a major currency with one from a smaller or emerging economy. These pairs may exhibit greater volatility, have wider spreads, and cost more to trade. While they might offer opportunities, their volatility makes them less suitable for beginners.Examples: USD/TRY, EUR/ZAR, USD/THBTip for beginners: Many beginners begin with major pairs because they are easier to track, cheaper to trade, and generally less volatile than minor or exotic pairs.Why Trade Forex?Forex is the most significant financial market globally, attracting millions of traders from institutions to beginners. Here are several reasons why:High LiquidityWith over $7.5 trillion traded every day, forex is the most significant liquidity market. This means trades can be executed quickly, and large orders can be completed without greatly affecting the price. High liquidity also keeps spreads tighter on major currency pairs, lowering costs.24/5 Market AccessUnlike stock markets that close daily, forex is open 24 hours a day, five days a week. Trading begins Monday morning in Sydney, moves through Tokyo and London, and ends Friday evening in New York. This continuous cycle means you can find trading opportunities almost any time.Minimal Entry BarriersMany brokers allow you to open a trading account with small amounts of money, sometimes as little as $50–$100. This makes forex trading much more accessible compared to markets like real estate or equities, which often need larger amounts of money to start.LeverageMany forex brokers provide the option of leverage, enabling you to manage larger sums with a smaller initial deposit. For instance, with 50:1 leverage, a $1,000 deposit can control a position worth $50,000. While this tool can enhance profits, it can also amplify losses, so it should be approached with caution.Global ReachForex is influenced by global events, economic data, decisions made by central banks, politics, and trade flows. This variety gives traders many factors to watch and learn from, making forex an appealing choice for those interested in connecting news with financial movements.These advantages make currency trading appealing, but they should always be weighed against the associated risks, which we will explore next.Risks of Forex TradingWhile forex offers unique opportunities, it also comes with significant risks. Beginners should understand these risks before investing real money.VolatilityPrices of currencies can fluctuate rapidly in response to news, economic reports, or political developments. This volatility can create chances for profit, but it also means losses can happen just as fast. A single announcement from a central bank can move a currency pair by hundreds of pips in a matter of minutes.Leverage RiskUsing leverage allows traders to control larger positions with less money, but it can increase both profits and losses. For example, with 50:1 leverage, a 1% move against your position could wipe out 50% of your deposit. It is crucial to manage risk when using leverage.Emotional DisciplineTrading involves more than just numbers; emotions can greatly influence your decisions. Fear can cause traders to close trades too soon, while greed can make them hold onto losing positions. Without discipline and a clear plan, emotions can lead to costly mistakes.Scams and Unregulated BrokersThe global nature of forex has attracted scams, including “guaranteed profit” schemes and unregulated brokers offering unrealistic bonuses. To safeguard your investments, only participate in the market with brokers regulated by recognized authorities such as the FCA (UK), CySEC (Cyprus), or ASIC (Australia).Important: Forex trading involves real risks, but these can be managed with education, practice, and discipline. Always start small, use stop-loss orders, and never invest money you cannot afford to lose.Who Trades Forex?The currency market is genuinely global, featuring participants from individual traders to large institutions handling billions of dollars.Retail TradersRetail traders are individuals who trade using online platforms and mobile apps. Over the past decade, retail trading has grown rapidly. Although retail traders are smaller players compared to institutions, technology has made it easier for anyone to access the market.InstitutionsBanks, hedge funds, and large corporations dominate forex trading. They account for the majority of daily trading volume, often between 70% and 90%. Their speed, size, and access to information mean they provide most of the market’s liquidity and often influence its direction.Governments and Central BanksGovernments and central banks also participate in forex trading. They intervene to stabilize their economies, set interest rates, or adjust reserves. While they are not trading for profit like individuals or funds, their actions can significantly impact the market.While institutions dominate currency trading, participation from retail traders is steadily on the rise. With lower barriers to entry, more individuals are now part of this global market.How to Start Trading ForexGetting started in forex doesn’t have to be complicated. Beginners should take a step-by-step approach to build their knowledge and confidence.Step 1 – Choose a Regulated BrokerYour chosen broker serves as your gateway to the currency market. Always choose one that is regulated by a recognized authority like the FCA (UK), CySEC (Cyprus), or ASIC (Australia). Regulation helps protect your funds and ensures fair trading conditions. Avoid unregulated platforms or those that promise “guaranteed profits.”Step 2 – Open an AccountMost brokers offer two types of accounts for trading currencies:Demo accounts: These allow you to practice with virtual money in real market conditions. This is the safest way to learn how trading platforms work.Live accounts: Once you feel confident, you can trade with real money. You will need to provide identification and proof of address to open a live account.Step 3 – Pick Your Currency PairsStart simple by focusing on one or two major pairs (like EUR/USD or GBP/USD). These pairs usually have the tightest spreads and highest liquidity, making them easier for beginners to trade.Step 4 – Place Your First TradeDetermine if you wish to:Go long (buy): If you expect the base currency to rise.Go short (sell): If you expect it to fall.You will also choose your trade size. Larger positions can lead to bigger potential profits but also bigger potential losses.Step 5 – Manage Your RiskManaging risk effectively is essential for staying active in the forex market:Stop-loss orders: These automatically close a trade if it moves against you by a set amount.Take-profit orders: These lock in profits at a chosen target.Position sizing: Many traders risk no more than 1-2% of their account on a single trade.Use leverage carefully: While it can increase profits, it can also lead to significant losses.Tip for beginners: Begin with modest amounts, even if you feel assured. Trading smaller amounts helps you learn without taking unnecessary risks.Step 6 – Review and LearnMaintain a simple journal to track your trades. Write down why you entered a trade, your stop-loss, your target, and the result. Over time, this will help you identify what works and what doesn’t in your approach.Quick Glossary of Forex Trading TermsAsk Price: The price at which you can buy a pair of currencies.Bid Price: The price at which you can sell a currency pair.Spread: The difference between the bid and ask price; essentially the broker’s fee.Pip (Percentage in Point): The smallest price movement in most pairs, usually 0.0001 for those quoted to four decimal places.Lot: A standard unit of trading in forex.Standard lot: 100,000 units of the base currency.Mini lot: 10,000 units.Micro lot: 1,000 units.Base Currency: The first currency in a pair (e.g., EUR in EUR/USD).Quote Currency: The second currency in a pair (e.g., USD in EUR/USD).Leverage: Borrowed money that allows you to control a larger position with a smaller deposit; it amplifies both profits and losses.Margin: The minimum deposit required to open and maintain a leveraged position.Long Position: Buying a pair, expecting the base currency to rise in value.Short Position: Selling a pair, expecting the base currency to fall in value.Major Pairs: The most liquid pairs that include the U.S. dollar, such as EUR/USD or USD/JPY.Minor Pairs (Crosses): Pairs that do not include the U.S. dollar but involve other major currencies, such as EUR/GBP.Exotic Pairs: Pairs that include a major currency and one from an emerging or smaller economy, such as USD/TRY.Stop-Loss Order: An order to automatically close a trade when it reaches a set loss limit, helping to control risk.Take-Profit Order: An order that automatically closes a trade when it reaches a set profit target.Volatility: The degree of price movement in a pair; higher volatility means larger, faster price changes.Scalping: A trading strategy that involves making many small, quick trades to capture tiny price movements.Swing Trading: Holding positions for days or weeks to profit from medium-term market moves.Day Trading: Opening and closing positions within the same trading day.Liquidity: How easily a pair can be bought or sold without causing major price changes. Major pairs usually have the highest liquidity.Central Bank: A country’s main monetary authority (like the U.S. Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank) that influences currency values through interest rate decisions and policies.Forex Trading ExamplesTo understand how forex trades work in practice, let’s look at two simple examples using the EUR/USD pair, one that results in a profit and one that results in a loss.Example 1: A Winning TradeEntry: Buy EUR/USD at 1.1650 (buy price) and sell at 1.1648 (sell price).You believe the euro will increase in value, so you buy 1 standard lot (100,000 units) at 1.1650.Later, the sell price rises to 1.1700, and you close the trade.Result: You made a profit because the market moved in your favor.Example 2: A Losing TradeEntry: Buy EUR/USD at 1.1650 (buy price) and sell at 1.1648 (sell price).Instead of rising, the market falls, and the sell price drops to 1.1600.You decide to close the trade there.Result: You took a loss because the market moved against you.These examples illustrate both possible outcomes: a profit if the market moves in your favor and a loss if it moves against you. The final result depends on your position size, the pair you trade, and whether you use tools like leverage, stop-losses, and take-profits.Final Thoughts / Next StepsForex is the largest and most approachable financial market in the world. Its liquidity, 24-hour availability, and relatively low entry costs make it appealing to beginners. However, like any market, it also carries risks, especially when using leverage and managing emotions.To begin, take small, steady steps:Open a demo account to practice in real conditions without risking real money.Learn how trading platforms work, how spreads affect trades, and how to use tools like stop-loss and take-profit orders.Once you feel confident, move to a live account with a small deposit, only use money you can afford to lose.Focus on one or two major currency pairs before branching out to more markets.Keep your risk low until you have a consistent trading approach.Above all, remember: successful forex trading isn't about making quick money. It's about discipline, patience, and continuous learning. Start small, develop your skills, and grow step by step.Over time, you can explore more advanced topics like technical analysis, fundamental factors, and trading strategies. With preparation and practice, forex can be a great way to learn about global markets and participate in the world’s most active financial arena.Continue Your Trading JourneyIf you’re interested in other markets, our next guide, "What Is Crypto Trading – A Beginner’s Guide," explains how cryptocurrency trading works, the risks involved, and how to get started safely.When you’re ready to open a live forex account, be sure to choose a regulated platform and app. Our pages on the Best Forex Brokers of 2024, Best Forex Trading Apps, and Best Forex Brokers for Beginners compare trusted brokers side by side to help you find one that meets your trading needs.Beginner FAQWhat is forex in simple terms?Forex is the buying and selling of currencies to profit from changes in their value.How much money do I need to start trading forex?Some brokers allow you to start with as little as $50–$100, but it’s more important to trade small amounts and use strict risk management than to worry about the amount you invest.Do I need special software?Most brokers provide their own apps or web platforms. Popular third-party tools include MetaTrader and TradingView, which offer charts, indicators, and trading features.Can I trade forex while working or studying?Yes. Day trading demands your full attention, while swing trading, which involves holding positions for several days, lets you review charts only once or twice daily.Is currency trading right for me?If you can manage risk, accept losses, and adhere to a strategy, the currency market may be a suitable option for you. However, if you expect guaranteed returns or quick profits, you might be disappointed.What’s the biggest mistake beginners make?A frequent error is taking on too much risk too quickly. Using high leverage or risking large amounts often leads This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.