US proposals have been 'unserious', and its demands 'unrealistic'Tehran has clearly stated its demands and will not change themWe do not believe in deadlines or ultimatums when it comes to safeguarding national interestsTehran is definitely being quite vocal about the situation here to start the new week. Adding to this is that its military spokesperson has also come out to say that it is "ready to confront the US after aggression against Iranian ship". That refers to the seized Iran-linked vessel from the US naval blockade.In any case, the message from Iran seems to be that they are looking to want to maintain a hard line in negotiations. But as mentioned earlier, being uncompromising has always been their default negotiating position from the start. It doesn't mean that they will not sit down to discuss things. We saw in the weekend before this past one that they were certainly willing to come to the table to talk.For now, markets are still very much taking things in stride. Is it a case of traders and investors waiting on Trump to come to the rescue with another TACO moment? That was very much the case last Monday and it could be that markets are waiting for a repeat.Oil prices have stuck with the gap higher, with Brent crude up over 6% to $95.85 and WTI crude also up over 6% to near $88 (June contract). Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% but have kept thereabouts in the past few hours without much notable movement. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The highlight for Monday will be Canada's CPI release. This will be followed by New Zealand's inflation data on Tuesday, which will be a busy day. The U.K. will publish the claimant count change, average earnings index 3m/y and the unemployment rate while the U.S. will get the ADP employment change, retail sales m/m and pending home sales m/m. Fed Chair-designate Warsh is also scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee in Washington, D.C., as part of his nomination process. On Wednesday, the U.K. will publish its inflation data while Thursday will bring flash manufacturing and services PMI releases for Australia, the eurozone, the U.K. and the U.S. Finally, on Friday, the U.K. and Canada will release retail sales m/m data, while the U.S. will publish the revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. In Canada, the consensus for CPI m/m is 1.1% versus 0.5% previously. Median CPI y/y is expected at 2.4% vs. 2.3%, trimmed CPI y/y is seen holding steady at 2.3%, and common CPI y/y is projected to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%. March inflation is expected to grow, driven largely by a sharp 21% increase in gasoline prices. Headline CPI is likely to rise to around 2.5% y/y from 1.8% and core inflation is projected to edge higher to around 2.2%. This rebound is mainly energy-driven, as last year’s carbon tax effects fade and fuel prices continue to climb. Inflation could move above 3% in April, although temporary tax relief at the pump coming in effect this week may help limit the increase, according to RBC analysts. Meanwhile, food inflation is expected to ease as annual distortions like the Feb. 2025 federal HST/GST holiday fades out of the data. Underlying price pressures remain relatively contained for now, giving the Bank of Canada some scope to look through the energy-driven spike, provided the increase stops. The Bank is also likely to wait for the results of the USMCA renegotiation and might not consider a rate hike until July, Wells Fargo analysts said. In New Zealand, the consensus for CPI q/q is 0.8%, up from 0.6% previously. Q1 inflation is expected to show a modest increase, driven by higher food and fuel costs. However, annual inflation is projected to ease from 3.1% to 2.8%, coming in below the latest RBNZ projections, while core inflation is expected to remain firm.Westpac analysts note that this dip does not reflect the full picture. The easing in annual inflation in March is likely to be temporary, with inflation expected to rise again through the middle of the year largely due to higher oil prices and their broader pass-through to the economy. Annual inflation could reach around 4.3% by mid-year. In the U.K., the consensus for the claimant count change is 21.4K compared to 24.7K previously. The average earnings index 3m/y is expected at 3.6% vs 3.9% prior, while the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 5.2%. This week’s data should provide insight into how the U.K. economy is being affected by the Middle East conflict. The Bank of England will closely monitor labor market indicators alongside the latest inflation prints. Labor market data points to a gradual cooling. Wage growth is expected to soften over the past three months, suggesting weaker income momentum. While the unemployment rate is likely to remain steady, it is still elevated. Overall, the data indicate a softening labor market rather than a sharp deterioration. On the inflation side, CPI y/y is expected to rise to 3.3% from 3.0%, while core CPI y/y is projected to remain unchanged at 3.2%. The increase in headline inflation is mainly driven by higher energy costs and the steady core reading suggests that the earlier disinflation trend may have stalled. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoE is likely to remain data-dependent. A stronger headline inflation print alone could be an argument for tighter policy, but softer wage growth, sluggish economic activity and an elevated unemployment rate support a wait-and-see approach. Rates are likely to remain unchanged for now with an upside risk if inflation begins to feed more broadly into wages and prices. In the U.S., the consensus for retail sales m/m is 1.4% compared to 0.6% previously, while core retail sales m/m are expected to rise 1.3% vs 0.5%. Early signs suggest consumers have largely absorbed the initial spike in fuel prices. High-frequency card data point to steady spending into early April, with March retail sales likely to show a strong headline increase of around 2%. However, this strength appears partly driven by price effects. Since retail sales are reported in nominal terms, a significant portion of the increase likely reflects higher gasoline prices rather than a genuine rise in volume. While overall spending has remained supported, underlying demand looks softer once adjusted for higher goods prices, which rose notably during the month. Looking ahead, consumption is expected to remain resilient, though at a slower pace. Support from tax refunds has helped offset the impact of higher fuel costs so far. Still, if elevated prices persist and broaden, pressure could begin to build on household finances. Regarding the Federal Reserve, focus starts shifting to Kevin Warsh, as his April 21 confirmation hearing brings both policy and politics into the spotlight, even as the Fed enters its pre-meeting blackout period. For markets, the key question is what Warsh will signal since he has been largely silent in recent months. The hearing will offer an opportunity to gauge his views on topics such as the current rate level, the longer-run neutral rate and his approach to tools such as forward guidance and the balance sheet. Once seen as more hawkish, he now faces added scrutiny over how closely his views align with Donald Trump, who has advocated significantly lower rates in contrast to current chair Jerome Powell. According to ING, Warsh is likely to strike a measured tone, suggesting that lowering the rate could be appropriate over time, while emphasizing the need for credible justification to maintain market confidence. Part of this argument may hinge on stronger productivity driven by technology and AI, a perspective that seems to align with the Fed’s more optimistic long-term growth outlook. At the same time, the political backdrop remains uncertain. Thom Tillis continues to oppose the nomination amid what he considers to be an ongoing "vindictive" Justice Department probe at the Fed, raising the risk of delays. That uncertainty could extend Jerome Powell’s tenure in an interim capacity if a replacement is not confirmed in time. In the U.S. the consensus for the revised UoM consumer sentiment is 48.4 vs prior 47.6, marking a modest improvement but still reflecting a cautious backdrop. As for inflation expectations, short-term measures like the 1-year outlook could see some adjustments, as changes in energy prices tend to pass through quickly. However, longer-term expectations in the 5-to-10-year range remain stable, holding steady despite the noticeable increase in the preliminary short-term reading, RBC analysts said. This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

Differences over nuclear programme remain unresolvedThe gaps have not narrowedContinuation of US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz undermines efforts for peace talksAt the same time, Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson is also out in saying that "there is no plan for a second round of negotiations with the US for now".Well, Iran continuing to maintain a hard line and uncompromising stance has always been their negotiating position from the get go. So, this is very much consistent with that brand. It was the same before the first round of talks but eventually there was some form of dialogue at the end of the day. So, it could very much be the case again this time around later this week.That being said, having a conversation and agreeing to certain terms are two different things. And for now, there's still a major gap on two key issues between the US and Iran.First, it is that the US wants Iran to abandon its nuclear ambition and that doesn't seem likely to happen now. It is still unsure whether there is power scuffle among the major ranks in Iran and who is in charge of aligning the view. But as things stand, the messiness in itself is enough to dictate that this particular issue will remain a sticking point in talks.As for the second, it is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is Iran's most important leverage for negotiations and everything else in this conflict. To expect them to open up the waterways again without restriction is not something that they are willingly going to do. Yes, there might be a more limited "reopening". But as every day that passes, oil and gas supply will just continue to tighten further globally and cause a strain to markets. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices plunged on Friday following a barrage of positive news. It all started with an Axios report saying that under a compromise proposal under discussion, some of the highly Iran’s enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the US, and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring. In return, the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds. Trump denied the release of the funds but more reports citing officials talked about this potential compromise. The selloff then gathered steam after Iranian Foreign Minister Aragchi announced that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Trump followed up with a post on Truth Social thanking Iran and even calling the Strait the “Strait of Iran”. Finally, Trump told reporters that he expected a deal in a day or two and prohibited Israel from bombing Lebanon. Everything pointed to a deal and to the end of the war, but we started to see a rebound in prices into the weekend after Trump said that the US would keep the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz in place until a deal with Iran is finalized. The more conservative traders got vindicated as the market opened with a positive gap following renewed tensions over the weekend after Iran closed the Strait again in retaliation of the US blockade. The good news is that the ceasefire is holding and we are still getting reports of ongoing talks and preference for a diplomatic resolution. The bad news is that the ceasefire is expiring tomorrow unless we get another extension which is what the market expects. This might keep oil prices supported into the deadline.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil eventually extended the selloff into the 78.00 support where the price bounced as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the 93.00 resistance. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to pile in to position for another drop into the 78.00 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the 120.00 level next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the resistance.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but given the proximity of the trendline to the resistance, the sellers might want to split their positions between the trendline and the resistance to position for new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for upside breaks to increase the bullish bets into new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSTomorrow we have the US Retail Sales. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PMIs. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines ahead of the ceasefire deadline tomorrow. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It is reported that Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic contacts since Sunday so as to try and get the US and Iran to sit down for talks "as soon as Tuesday".In case you missed the headlines over the weekend, US president Trump said that he was still optimistic about a deal. And that is despite the pushback from Iran in closing the Strait of Hormuz again, after being unhappy with the US maintaining its naval blockade. Trump added that US representatives will be heading to Islamabad today for talks. However, Iran has not confirmed its participation yet.I still reckon we will see some form of negotiation between both sides again some time this week. It could be as early as tomorrow but I wouldn't hold my breath on it. And that especially if wanting to expect a comprehensive peace deal and any major reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.On the latter, Iran knows that control over the strait is their most important leverage at the moment. So, I can't see how they would give that up. Sure, they might loosen restrictions over who and how many vessels can pass through but I would not expect a total reopening.Trump has threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if there is no deal but we'll have to see if he will really follow through on that this time around.As a reminder, the fragile ceasefire between the two sides is due to expire on Wednesday. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The March data shows:Producer prices (monthly) +2.5% m/mProducer prices (annual) -0.2% y/yThat isn't a surprise with the jump being largely from a sharp increase in prices for almost all energy products. Mind you, the year-on-year figure was -3.3% in February. So, the lower natural gas and electricity prices in the preceding months have largely been negated now.The monthly jump in energy prices was 7.5% in March. In particular, the prices of mineral oil products rose sharply as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Natural gas and electricity prices were more contained though, but there is a bit of a caveat to that. Destatis notes that the low prices were "mainly due to longer-term contracts and pricing mechanisms".Meanwhile, motor fuel prices were seen up 22.3% compared to February and up 29.5% compared to March last year. And prices for mineral oil products were seen up 22.9% compared to February and up 18.3% from March last year.Even if oil and gas price futures may look to have come off the boil in recent weeks, don't expect April to be all too much better. The longer that the US-Iran war drags on and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that will continue to keep biting at every day consumers and businesses amid higher energy prices. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have anything on the agenda. The focus remains on US-Iran headlines with the latest tensions weighing on risk sentiment. The good news is that the ceasefire is still holding although both sides are accusing each other of violating the ceasefire in relations to the events in the Strait of Hormuz. This is keeping markets afloat, but the risk of a more pronounced selloff is high considering the recent rally in the US stock market. It goes without saying that US-Iran headlines will continue to dominate the price action until the situation in the Middle East is fully resolved.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, the only highlight is the Canadian CPI report. The Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y is expected at 2.3% vs 2.3% prior. The Canadian data has been pointing more towards rate cuts lately with substantial easing in core inflation and weak jobs reports.Nonetheless, the market has been pricing in a rate hike by year-end due to higher energy prices. Today's data is for March, so we are going to see an increase in headline inflation which is very much expected and shouldn't trigger any notable market reaction.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS16:40 GMT/12:40 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There are just a few to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.The first being for EUR/USD at the 1.1750 level. The expiries hold close by to the 200-hour moving average of 1.1740 and may yet just play a role in terms of keeping price action more sticky in European morning trade.However, trading sentiment is riding a lot on the dollar and general risk mood at the moment. That as US-Iran tensions flare up again over the weekend after Tehran signaled that the Strait of Hormuz is closed once more. So, that's the bigger factor in play that will keep traders on edge as we get into the new week.In the case of EUR/USD, the pair opened with a gap down but is holding at the 200-hour moving average for now. A break below that will see sellers seize back near-term control for the first time in two weeks, allowing for some added scope to venture towards 1.1700 next.Then, there is one for GBP/USD at the 1.3500 level. And it is pretty much the same situation as well, with the pair's own 200-hour moving average sitting at 1.3488 on the day. So, we are seeing price action keep thereabouts with the expiries at 1.3500 perhaps also set to play a role in terms of limiting price movements to the upside considering the dollar backdrop.But as mentioned above, headline risks are paramount as we get into the new week. Any further suggestions from the US or Iran or even any murmurs about a peace deal or breakdown in talks will be enough to cause markets to jump. So, just be wary of that.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's going to be another messy week, innit? Hopes for peace talks did not last long as Iran refused any concessions with the US continuing to maintain its military presence in the region. Tehran was not happy with the naval blockade still put in place, thus deciding to "close" the Strait of Hormuz again.That is the most important development as we get back from the weekend. Iran also delivered a safety warning to any vessels wanting to pass, that especially after the US seized one of Iran's commercial vessels. On Sunday itself, ship tracking data showed no tankers passing through the strait with many vessels even avoiding entry.So, what's next from here?Well, markets are indubitably responding with a more risk-off mood. However, it's not to say we are seeing a total reset in market sentiment back to where we were two weeks ago. That even as the reality of the situation feels that way.US president Trump continues to feed hope in saying that he still believes a deal can be done and that US representatives will be headed to Pakistan to negotiate one. So, that is still arguably allowing markets to retain some form of optimism - even if misguided.For now, oil prices have opened with a gap higher and are holding gains for the most part. The "front-month" June contract for WTI crude sees prices up by nearly 6% to $87.50 currently. As a reminder, the May contract will lapse today and there might be a bit of a reset come tomorrow.As for Brent crude, that is also seen up nearly 6% to $95.40 on the day now. Physical prices continue to trade at a marked premium between $40 to $50, so that remains a big issue.Even if the futures price is not showing it to be that big of a deal, physical prices are still at very inflated levels. And the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil and gas supply will continue to tighten further. As such, these prices will continue to stick and that is what will really impact every day consumers and businesses.Even if markets might be a bit more sanguine about it, the reaction belies the chokehold that the global economy is facing amid a continuation in the US-Iran conflict status quo.At this stage, Iran's actions on the Strait of Hormuz are what matters the most. The political noise and victory lap from either side matters little to what is actually happening in the waterway.S&P 500 futures are only down 0.6% so far today. That is barely even a dent to the near 12% gains that the index has posted in the rebound from the past three weeks, having culminated in a record close at the end of last week.The fear now is that markets are continuing to underestimate the impact and extent of the economic risks tied with a further continuation to the current geopolitical situation.Asia is definitely taking the biggest hit but once storage levels in Europe are also slowly being depleted, the situation will hit harder in the region. And with each and every day this continues, the risk of this whole thing snowballing will just get bigger and bigger. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Progress seen but core issues divide US and IranIndia and South Korea target $50bn trade as both seek deeper economic tiesCarney says Canada must reduce US reliance as tariffs reshape trade outlookSome, not all, of the Monday morning gaps are filling. Oil, no. Equites, NO. FX, some.PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8648 (vs. estimate at 6.8291)PBOC leaves loan prime rates unchanged, as expected.US keeps Iran pressure high, UN envoy Waltz says strikes remain option ahead of talksUAE seeks US financial backstop as war strains oil flows and dollar liquidityRecap - US seizes Iranian ship, talks stall as Hormuz tensions drive oil price upIran, UAE clash over Hormuz as oil flows disrupted and costs rise globallyTrump’s Fed pick blocked as Tillis cites Powell investigationNew Zealand data: March exports and imports both jump from FebruaryUS futures, Globex, open for the new week's trade. Risk off, as expected.Iran says U.S. violated ceasefire by firing at one of Iran’s commercial ships.Oil and equity index futures open at the top of the hour. Early FX is indicating risk offTrump reveals classified Iran war information, again. US Marines' location tweeted out.Monday open FX (unlike the closed Strait of Hormuz). Indicative rates 20 April 2026.Weekend:Trump tells reporter he still thinks he can get a deal with Iran, says "it will happen"Newsquawk Week in Focus: US-Iran ceasefire expiry, Warsh Hearing, and US Retail SalesIran says that Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, situation returns to previous stateOil prices surged at the open following Iran’s re-imposition of a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, reversing a brief reopening seen late last week. The move comes amid renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict, though prices have since come off their highs as markets weigh the prospect of continued negotiations.The USD gapped higher at the open but some of the gaps have closed. Over the weekend, tensions intensified after the US Navy fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first such action under the current blockade. US Central Command said the vessel failed to comply with warnings for several hours, prompting action to disable and board the ship. Iran condemned the move as “armed piracy” and warned of imminent retaliation, with state media also reporting drone attacks on US military assets.The ceasefire, set to run through Tuesday, now appears increasingly fragile. Iranian officials signalled limited confidence in upcoming talks, with some reports suggesting Tehran may not participate, while US negotiators are still expected to arrive in Islamabad. That said, Pakistani sources indicate that gaps between the two sides have narrowed, reinforcing market expectations that both parties ultimately want a deal.On the ground, conditions in the Strait remain unstable rather than fully closed. Kpler data showed more than 20 vessels transited the waterway on Saturday, the highest since early March, but reports of vessels being turned back and attacked continue to deter flows. The situation is best characterised as controlled disruption rather than outright shutdown, keeping supply risks elevated.In FX, emerging-market currencies weakened as the US dollar and oil prices rose in response to the renewed tensions.Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China left its loan prime rates unchanged for an 11th straight month, with the one-year at 3.0% and five-year at 3.5%, in line with expectations. In the Gulf, the UAE signalled it may shift toward yuan-denominated oil trade if dollar liquidity tightens, following reports it has sought a financial backstop from the US.Despite the geopolitical backdrop, Asian equities showed resilience. Japan’s Nikkei moved back toward recent highs, while Taiwan equities hit a record, with AI-driven optimism outweighing concerns around the Middle East.US equities still show gaps down: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US-Iran gaps are said to have narrowed, but disputes over nuclear limits, uranium stockpiles, Hormuz access and sanctions relief remain unresolved, keeping prospects for a deal uncertain and risks to energy markets elevated.Summary:Pakistan sources say US-Iran gaps narrowing Nuclear programme remains core disagreement US wants uranium custody; Iran rejects Hormuz blockade vs restrictions remains unresolved Iran demands sanctions relief and asset release War reparations add further complexityReports from Pakistani media suggest that gaps between the United States and Iran have narrowed in recent days, raising cautious optimism ahead of renewed talks. However, despite some progress, several major sticking points continue to prevent a breakthrough, underscoring how far apart the two sides remain on core issues.At the centre of the negotiations is Iran’s nuclear programme. Washington is pushing for a complete halt to Iran’s nuclear activities, while Tehran has made clear it would only accept temporary restrictions, arguing that any limits must be time-bound rather than permanent. This fundamental disagreement continues to shape the overall framework of any potential deal.Closely linked is the question of Iran’s uranium stockpile. The United States has proposed taking control of Iran’s roughly 400kg of highly enriched uranium, a demand Tehran has firmly rejected. For Iran, relinquishing control of its stockpile is seen as a major concession that would undermine its strategic position.The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains another critical fault line. Iran has indicated it will maintain restrictions on shipping until the United States lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports. Washington, however, has taken the opposite stance, insisting the blockade will remain in place until a comprehensive agreement is reached. This creates a circular dynamic, with each side conditioning its concessions on the actions of the other.Economic demands also loom large. Iran is seeking substantial sanctions relief, including the unfreezing of around $20 billion in overseas assets. In addition, Tehran has put forward claims for war-related compensation estimated at roughly $270 billion, reflecting the scale of damage it says has been inflicted during the conflict.Taken together, the negotiations reflect a narrowing gap on process but not yet on substance. While dialogue appears to be advancing, the key issues; nuclear limits, control of uranium, maritime access, and financial demands, remain unresolved, suggesting any agreement will be complex and potentially protracted. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:South Korea’s Lee visits India for first time in eight years Target to double trade to $50bn by 2030 Focus on shipbuilding, AI, finance, defence cooperation Supply chain risks driving closer ties Korea seeks more naphtha from India Trade imbalance remains a key issueSouth Korean President Lee Jae Myung is set to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi, aiming to significantly deepen economic ties as both countries look to strengthen resilience against global supply chain disruptions.The visit marks the first South Korean presidential state trip to India in eight years, underscoring a renewed push from Seoul to elevate the relationship. Officials from both sides are targeting a near doubling of bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030, up from roughly $25.7 billion last year, as part of efforts to upgrade their existing Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement.Lee has framed the partnership as strategically important in an increasingly fragmented global economy, particularly given ongoing disruptions linked to the Iran war. He emphasised that cooperation between South Korea and India could expand materially across key sectors, including shipbuilding, finance, artificial intelligence, and defence.A major focus is supply chain security. South Korea has already turned to India to help offset risks stemming from Middle East tensions, including a recent request to increase naphtha supplies, a key petrochemical feedstock. India currently accounts for a modest share of South Korea’s imports, but officials see scope to expand flows as part of a broader rebalancing of trade.The relationship also reflects shifting perceptions of India’s role in the global economy. Lee described India as evolving beyond a consumption-driven market into a critical node in global production and supply chains, making it an increasingly attractive partner for industrial collaboration.However, structural challenges remain. South Korea runs a sizeable trade surplus with India, a longstanding source of friction that both sides are seeking to address through deeper cooperation and expanded imports. Analysts suggest sectors such as shipbuilding, which aligns with India’s employment priorities and South Korea’s industrial expertise, could provide a pathway for more balanced growth.Lee’s visit is also expected to include meetings with business leaders, reinforcing the commercial dimension of the partnership. He is scheduled to travel onward to Vietnam as part of a broader regional engagement strategy.This reflects a structural supply chain realignment theme, with Asia increasingly looking inward to offset geopolitical risk. Greater Korea–India integration could support regional trade flows, particularly in energy inputs and industrial sectors. While not an immediate market mover, it reinforces the broader trend of diversification away from traditional routes, which has implications for commodities, shipping, and long-term growth dynamics across Asia. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Canada PM Carney said US ties are now a weakness as tariffs rise, signalling a push to diversify trade and investment amid growing economic uncertainty and tensions with Washington.Summary:Carney says US ties now a “weakness,” not strength Points to surge in US tariffs and protectionism Canada to diversify trade and attract new investment Tariffs hitting autos and steel sectors Business investment slowing amid uncertainty US-Canada tensions rising, including political rhetoricCanadian Prime Minister Mark Carney used a weekend address to signal a strategic shift in Canada’s economic positioning, arguing that the country’s historically close ties with the United States have become a vulnerability rather than a strength in an increasingly fragmented global landscape.In a roughly 10-minute video message, Carney warned that the world is becoming more divided and unpredictable, with the United States adopting a more protectionist trade stance. He pointed to a sharp rise in US tariffs, levels he said had not been seen since the Great Depression, as evidence of a fundamental change in Washington’s approach to global trade.Against that backdrop, Carney said Canada must adapt by reducing its reliance on the US and pursuing a broader set of economic partnerships. His government, he noted, is focused on attracting new investment and expanding trade relationships with other countries as part of a diversification strategy.The shift comes as US trade policy begins to weigh more heavily on the Canadian economy. Carney highlighted the impact of tariffs on key sectors such as autos and steel, while also pointing to a broader chilling effect on business investment. Companies, he said, are delaying decisions amid elevated uncertainty tied to the evolving policy environment.Carney also acknowledged growing political tensions between the two countries, including controversial remarks from US President Donald Trump suggesting Canada could become the “51st state,” comments that have fuelled public frustration domestically.Framing the moment as a structural turning point, Carney said Canada must confront these challenges directly rather than downplay them, pledging to provide regular updates on efforts to strengthen economic resilience.The message builds on Carney’s earlier warnings about shifting global power dynamics, including remarks at the World Economic Forum in Davos where he criticised economic coercion by major powers. Those comments drew a sharp response from Trump, underscoring the increasingly strained tone of US-Canada relations.Taken together, the address signals a clear pivot: Canada is preparing for a world in which its economic future is less tied to the United States and more dependent on diversification and resilience.---This signals a longer-term structural shift rather than an immediate market move. Reduced reliance on the US implies gradual reorientation of trade flows, investment patterns, and currency dynamics. In the near term, uncertainty around US tariffs and cross-border trade remains a drag on Canadian growth-sensitive sectors. Longer term, diversification could support resilience, but the transition phase is likely to be uneven and investment-sensitive. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Posting some of the majors, use our app to check markets you are interested in. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Earlier:PBOC leaves loan prime rates unchanged, as expected.-The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 500mn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The one-year LPR serves as the primary benchmark for most lending in China, particularly corporate loans, short-term business financing, and some consumer credit. It effectively acts as the core pricing reference for credit in the real economy and is the key rate to watch when policymakers aim to support growth.By contrast, the five-year LPR is mainly used as the benchmark for longer-term borrowing, especially residential mortgages. It plays a crucial role in the property sector, with adjustments aimed at supporting housing demand and stabilising real estate markets.---China’s Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has traditionally served as the country’s main benchmark for lending, introduced in its current framework in August 2019 as part of broader rate liberalisation efforts. It is set each month based on quotes from a panel of commercial banks and is designed to reflect borrowing costs in the real economy, with the one-year LPR guiding corporate lending and the five-year LPR acting as the reference point for mortgages.In recent years, however, the LPR has become less central within the People’s Bank of China’s policy framework, as the central bank has shifted toward a more market-driven approach anchored in short-term interest rates.At the heart of this shift is the growing importance of the 7-day reverse repo rate, which is used in daily open market operations and directly shapes liquidity conditions in the interbank market. It now effectively sits at the core of China’s interest rate corridor.This transition was clearly signalled in mid-2024, when PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng indicated that the 7-day reverse repo rate would increasingly serve as the main policy rate, with tools such as the LPR and the medium-term lending facility playing more supporting roles.The change reflects a push to improve policy transmission. The LPR, which is derived from bank submissions and influenced by earlier benchmarks like the MLF, operates more indirectly. By contrast, the 7-day reverse repo rate can be adjusted more frequently and with greater precision, giving policymakers tighter control over funding conditions. As a result, the LPR is now better seen as a transmission mechanism, while markets look primarily to short-term rates to assess the stance of Chinese monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US envoy Waltz said all options, including strikes on Iran infrastructure, remain on the table ahead of talks, signalling continued pressure and keeping escalation risks elevated despite diplomatic efforts.Summary:The United States stepped up its messaging campaign over the weekend, with Ambassador Mike Waltz delivering a coordinated series of interviews and statements that reinforced a hardline stance ahead of planned talks with Iran.Speaking across major US media outlets, Waltz signalled that all options remain on the table, including further strikes on Iranian infrastructure if negotiations fail. He defended previous targeting decisions, arguing that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps embeds military assets within civilian infrastructure, making such sites legitimate targets in the conflict.Waltz also framed recent US actions as having materially weakened Tehran’s position, stating the Iranian government has been pushed into disarray by American strikes and is now facing increasing diplomatic isolation. He suggested that Iran lacks leverage in the current standoff and will ultimately be compelled to negotiate, reiterating Washington’s objective of the complete dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program.On the economic front, Waltz made clear the administration’s view that Iran should not be allowed to use the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point. He argued the Iranian regime cannot hold the global economy hostage over nuclear disputes, while also emphasising that under the current US naval blockade, control over access to the Strait effectively rests with Washington.Waltz reinforced that targeting infrastructure remains a live option should talks fail, underscoring a willingness to escalate pressure further if required. The messaging appears designed to strengthen the US negotiating position ahead of discussions in Islamabad, where Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the American delegation.US ramps up coordinated messaging ahead of Iran talks Waltz says “all options on the table,” including infrastructure strikes US claims Iran weakened, diplomatically isolated Goal remains full dismantling of Iran nuclear program Hormuz framed as under US-controlled blockade Escalation risk remains high if talks failTaken together, the remarks signal a dual-track approach: pushing forward with diplomacy while maintaining a credible threat of further military escalation. For markets, the tone suggests negotiations will take place under significant pressure, with risks skewed toward renewed escalation if progress proves limited.---The messaging reinforces a high-pressure negotiation backdrop, not de-escalation. Markets should interpret this as the US entering talks from a position of strength while keeping escalation risk elevated. This supports a continued risk premium in oil, particularly given the explicit linkage to Hormuz control. Unless rhetoric softens, downside in crude may remain limited, with volatility driven by headlines around negotiations. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

UAE held talks with the US on a potential financial backstop as war disrupts oil exports and dollar flows, with officials even raising yuan use in a stress scenario, signalling rising financial risks in the Gulf.Summary:UAE exploring US financial backstop amid war risks Currency swap line discussed but not formally requested Oil export disruption hitting dollar revenues Risks to capital flows and financial hub status rising UAE signals possible shift to yuan if dollar access tightens Fed swap line unlikely; alternative support possibleThe United Arab Emirates has quietly opened discussions with the United States about securing a potential financial backstop, underscoring growing concern among Gulf states about the economic fallout from the ongoing Iran war.According to officials cited by the Wall Street Journal (gated), UAE Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the possibility of a currency swap line in meetings with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve officials. While Emirati authorities have not made a formal request, the discussions reflect a precautionary effort to ensure access to US dollars should the conflict deepen and strain the country’s financial system.The move highlights mounting pressure on the UAE’s economic model, which relies heavily on its role as a stable financial hub and a major oil exporter. The war has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a key source of dollar revenues, while infrastructure damage and rising geopolitical risk have increased the threat of capital outflows and investor hesitation.Officials stressed that the UAE has so far avoided the worst economic impacts, but risks are building. A prolonged disruption could erode foreign reserves and destabilise the currency peg, even though the dirham remains backed by substantial reserves. Analysts note that while buffers are strong, sustained pressure on exports and financial flows would test the system.Notably, Emirati officials also raised the possibility that, in a dollar shortage scenario, the country could shift toward using alternative currencies such as the Chinese yuan for oil transactions. Such a move would carry broader implications for the global financial system, given the dominance of the US dollar in energy markets.Despite the discussions, a Federal Reserve-backed swap line appears unlikely, as such facilities are typically reserved for economies with deeper financial linkages to the US. Alternative support mechanisms, potentially through the US Treasury, remain a possibility.The talks underscore a broader reality: even wealthy Gulf economies are increasingly preparing for a prolonged and disruptive conflict, with recovery expected to be slow even if hostilities ease. ---This is a significant escalation in financial stress signals, moving beyond oil flows into funding risk. The fact the UAE is even discussing swap lines suggests concern around dollar liquidity and capital stability. The yuan reference is particularly notable, hinting at potential cracks in the dollar’s dominance in energy trade if stress deepens. For markets, this reinforces that the shock is broadening, from physical supply disruption into financial system risk, a combination that typically supports oil, volatility, and safe-haven demand. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Coming up:PBoC rate setting (doesn't matter)---The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:US seizes Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach blockade Iran threatens retaliation, labels move “armed piracy” Tehran rejects second round of peace talks Pakistan mediation efforts continue but outlook weak Hormuz transit remains unstable despite brief reopening Oil rebounds sharply as disruption risk persistsEarlier:US futures, Globex, open for the new week's trade. Risk off, as expected.Weekend developments in the US–Iran conflict reinforced just how fragile the ceasefire remains, with fresh maritime incidents, stalled diplomacy, and renewed pressure on energy markets.The most immediate escalation came after the US military intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel attempting to run the American blockade near Bandar Abbas. Washington said the ship was taken into custody after being fired upon, while Iran condemned the move as “armed piracy” and warned it would retaliate. The incident marks a significant deterioration in trust and raises the risk that the already tenuous ceasefire could collapse before its scheduled expiry.At the same time, diplomatic efforts appear to be faltering. Iran formally rejected participation in a second round of US-led talks, citing the ongoing blockade, escalating rhetoric from Washington, and what it described as excessive demands. While Pakistan has been preparing to host negotiations in Islamabad, including heightened security measures and logistical arrangements, the prospects for meaningful dialogue now look increasingly uncertain.The standoff continues to centre on control of energy flows. The United States has maintained its blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has alternated between reopening and restricting transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports over the weekend indicated that vessels attempting to transit the Strait were turned back, reinforcing the reality that shipping conditions remain unstable despite intermittent signals of reopening.Market reaction underscores the sensitivity of the situation. Oil prices rebounded sharply after last week’s sell-off, with Brent and WTI both rising strongly as traders reassessed the likelihood of a sustained disruption. While more than 20 vessels were reported to have transited the Strait on Saturday, the highest since early March, confidence remains fragile, with shipowners hesitant to rely on assurances that safe passage will hold.Taken together, the weekend’s developments highlight a market caught between headline-driven optimism and persistent structural disruption, with the underlying reality pointing to continued volatility in energy flows.---The key takeaway is that physical disruption risk remains intact despite headline-driven swings. The ship seizure and breakdown in talks reinforce that neither side is stepping back, keeping Hormuz effectively in a state of managed instability. This supports oil prices, sustains elevated freight and insurance costs, and keeps inflation risks alive. Markets are increasingly reacting less to political statements and more to whether shipping flows can normalise, which, for now, still looks unlikely. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.