Trump is out with an interview with CBS reiterating that the US will get Iran's uranium."Our people, together with the Iranians are going to work together to go get it. And then we'll take it to the United States," he said.However, Iran's Parliamentary National Security Committee Spokesman tells Al Jazeera they will not allow the removal of uranium from Iran, and the American statements on social media differ from reality."The option of transferring Iran's enriched uranium abroad is rejected," the report quoted the official saying.Maybe this ultimately still ends with the uranium going to a third country but everything is being spun on all sides right now. Or maybe it's all going to fall apart. Oil ticked a bit higher into settlement but WTI still finished down $10.84 to $83.85 or 11.45% in one of the all-time biggest one-day declines.With Trump you always get the feeling there will be one more surprise and that he's saving it for the weekend but there is certainly a lot of good news on the war today.Presuming this gets sorted out, I expect more of a focus to emerge on supply chains, inventory restocking and restart times. There was a lot of damage in this war and it's not easy to restart oil production in many fields. There are big questions about how aggressively ships will want to pass through Hormuz, though there is a report about 20 tankers on the way through now.Generally, I think the market has this right but lots of good news is priced in and $83 oil isn't exactly leaving much room for quick downside. I do see the huge head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart and that does point down to $60 but I just can't see it given that 400 million barrels have been unproduced and there's no way to make those re-appear. In any case, we will have to iron out these talks and the market will remain jittery but the latest indications are that there will be talks on Monday in Pakistan. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If war creates high inflation, weak labor market, could call for holding rates steadyThe longer Middle East war remains unresolved, inflation and job risks increaseHigh inflation, weak job market would be challenging for FedMarch headline PCE inflation likely to hit 3.5% year over yearPossible energy price surge could have lasting inflation impactMarkets appeared to have undervalued risk of extended conflictWill be closely watching how inflation expectations react to conflictIf swift resolution to war, can look through energy price shockAfter series of shocks, it gets harder to look through inflation jumpWill closely watch jobs data for mounting signs of stressJob market break even rate now likely around zeroPeriods of negative job growth might not signal recessionChanges to job market make it challenging to analyze nowOutlook depends on how long rise in oil prices, how long conflict will persistThose are strong pillarsConsumers nervous about economy, but spendingBusinesses cautiously optimisticFed governor Christopher Waller is out with some comments on the Middle East conflict and what it means for monetary policy but the comments were surely written before today's news about opening the Strait of Hormuz so they may already be useless.On the economy itself, he sounded more constructive — consumers nervous but still spending, businesses cautiously optimistic, calling them "strong pillars." Waller was leaning dovish earlier in the year is now openly talking about holding but I'm not sure he will really want to walk that back post-war, especially if oil settles in the mid-to-high $70s. I think right now the war matters much more for monetary policy but note that we get Warsh's confirmation hearing on April 21 so that's going to be a spot to watch. We also get some more data next week, and it's been running hot. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

About 20 minutes before Iran's foreign minister told the world today that the Strait of Hormuz was fully open again, someone dumped 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures between 1224 and 1225 GMT. That's roughly $760 million worth of short exposure, placed with impeccable timing right ahead of an announcement that cratered crude by as much as 11% on the day.Pretty good trade. Suspiciously good. And not the first time during this conflict.On April 7, another ~$950 million short hit the tape just hours before the US and Iran announced their two-week ceasefire. Go back to March 23 and you'll find traders selling 15 minutes before Trump posted that he'd delay strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure — a post that sent crude down 15%. Three home runs in a row, what luck.The March 23 volume spike:The CFTC is now investigating, according to a person familiar with the matter but there's no chance a White House insider goes down for this one. We have been raising the alarm for months that someone is trading on non-public information around many policy decisions, and the derivatives market is exactly where you'd expect that to show up and they don't seem to be worried about getting caught.Even the Iranian foreign minister called out US insider trading on war news and he was the one who announced today's decision. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth looked to buy defense stocks before the war.The market implication is simple. Every geopolitical oil headline now has to be priced with the assumption that someone saw it first. I sure home I'm wrong and that the CFTC has real teeth this time, because "minutes before the announcement" keeps showing up in the timestamps. I'm tired of being front-run by insiders on everything and it makes everyone wonder if there are nefarious reasons for every tweet, leak and announcement as it seems to be open season on insider trading. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Oil has ticked higher on some headlines tossing up some skepticism about a US-Iran deal.Reuters cited a senior unnamed Iranian official:Significant differences remain, including on nuclear issuesSerious talks requiredKeeping Strait of Hormuz open is conditional on adherence to ceasefire termsA preliminary deal could be reached within the coming days, with the possibility of extending the ceasefireA prelim deal could "create space" for talks on lifting sanctions and securing compensation for war damagesIran is ready to assure the world about the peaceful nature of its nuclear work if its demands are metThe S&P 500 has pulled back about 25 points from the highs but most of that was before this. Oil has also bounced from the lows.Negotiations are always hardest at the end. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The S&P 500 is at the highs of the day, up 1.45%, or 102 points to 7143. That's a record high as well and more than a 10% gain from the March 30 low.It's been an incredible rally and the latest leg higher came after Trump told AFP that there are no sticking points in the Iran deal.Back in March I highlighted six things I expected to be the TACO trades if peace was reached:1) Short oil2) Oil offshoots - airlines, transports, some consumer-sensitive stocks. I highlighted cruise ships in particular.3) Disinflation and rate cuts4) Global stocks5) Short USD6) Gold, depending on how the peace was reachedEvery single one of those as worked and they're all working today. The biggest one remains the most-obvious one, as oil is down $11.37, or 10.3%, to $83.37 today and fell as low as $80.56. To be honest, I would have thought more of a chance of peace was priced in but the surprise was Iran opening the Strait immediately, which is particularly good for short-dated futures. Clearly there were still some specs in the market and they were blown out today. Looking further out, December crude futures are at $72 vs $62 pre-war.Secondly, I highlighted Carnival Cruise Lines as a good bet near the bottom in mid-March and that's worked out well. It was at $24.86 in the post and is up 20% since. Today it's up 9.1% and is the third-best performing stock in the S&P 500 behind United Airlines and Royal Caribbean Cruise Lines. The disinflation trade is right behind it. US 2-year yields are down 8.9 bps today to 3.69% and rate cut stocks like housing aren't far behind the cruise lines and airlines. Lennar and Pulte are both up 6% today on a big rally in the group.Global stocks had a big day and are likely to see more of that in the days to come. I highlighted Germany and Japan and the DAX was up 2.3%. The Nikkei was down in regular hours as the news of reopening hit when it was closed by the EWJ Japan ETF is up 1.4% in US trade despite the 1.7% decline in the Nikkei in regular hours. It still has about 5% to go to hit pre-war levels.Finally, gold is up a tidy $80 today and it also still has some room to run to get back to pre-war levels. I think deleveraging did a number on the late-coming longs but it was also hurt when emerging markets -- including Turkey -- sold gold to protect their currencies during the oil spike. I'd expect central banks to be rebuilding reserves in short order. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with Axios and said:"The Iranians want to meet. They want to make a deal. I think a meeting will probably take place over the weekend. I think we will get a deal in the next day or two."It sounds like all the details have been worked out and Trump's talk about Iran not getting its funds unfrozen sounds hollow. Just now the WSJ reports that the US told Iran it would get $20 billion if it hands over its stockpile of uranium. They cited people familiar.Trump also touched on Israel and Lebanon:"Israel has to stop. They can't continue to blow buildings up. I am not gonna allow it," he said. We will see how much sway he has in that department.Update: Trump tells the AFP there are no sticking points in the Iran deal. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Absence of immigration really matters, as does investment in technologiesRight now making up low labor force growth by higher productivity growthZero job growth might be new steady stateHeading toward zero labor force growth based on demographicsOutlook depends on how long rise in oil prices, how long conflict will persistThose are strong pillarsConsumers nervous about economy, but spendingBusinesses cautiously optimisticDaly is leaning into the "structural" argument hard. When a Fed official starts talking about zero job growth being the "new steady state," your ears should prick up. She's essentially telling the market: "Don't freak out if the NFP numbers start looking ugly; it’s just the demographics, stupid." She is betting the farm on productivity. In her view, tech investment and AI aren't just buzzwords—they’re the only things keeping the lights on while the labor pool shrinks. It's a bold call. If productivity stalls but the labor market stays tight, that's a recipe for a wage-price spiral that keeps the Fed's foot on the brake for much longer.Then there’s the elephant in the room: Oil. Daly admits the outlook is entirely hostage to how long this conflict persists but that's a rapidly declining risk given today's moves in markets. They see the "strong pillars" of the consumer, but they also see the gas station receipts. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market is displaying a dynamic mix of trends today, with notable strength in the technology and automotive sectors, while energy stocks are facing significant declines.? Technology: Gains led by Microsoft (MSFT), which is up by 1.56%, reflect positive sentiment in software infrastructure. Leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) also show growth, up by 1.12% and 1.74% respectively, indicating a strong performance across the semiconductor sector.? Automotive: Tesla (TSLA) is surging with a 2.12% increase, highlighting robust growth prospects in the auto manufacturing field.? Energy: Energy giants like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are down 5.64% and 4.64%, adding red to the sector due to falling oil prices and potential demand concerns.Market Mood and TrendsToday's market sentiment reflects an optimistic outlook mostly driven by tech stocks. Investor focus is on innovation and expansion within technology, which bolsters market confidence. Conversely, the downturn in the energy sector signals caution due to macroeconomic factors impacting oil consumption.The stalwart performance in tech indicates continued investor confidence in this sector, pushing the NASDAQ higher, while challenges in traditional energy hint at shifting sector preferences.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors may want to focus on leveraging the ongoing strength in the technology and automotive sectors for potential growth opportunities. Stocks like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla demonstrate promising trajectories and could be pivotal in future-proofing portfolios.However, be prepared for volatility within the energy sector. It's advisable to maintain a diversified portfolio to buffer against downturns, and perhaps monitor emerging technologies in clean energy for potential early investments. Stay updated with the latest market analysis on InvestingLive.com to strategically align your investments with the evolving market trends. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Another message from Trump on Truth Social and another big indication that a peace deal is coming:The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!! Thank you! President DJTThat's a pretty big surprise on Lebanon.I'd imagine this 'money changing hands' bit on frozen Iranian funds is a bit of semantics. That money is in Qatar currently.We're sort of entering the spin zone here now as he doesn't necessarily rule out ground attacks and incursions further into Lebanon either.In any case, there's no use overthinking it here as it's all 'pro-peace and pro-opening Hormuz' and that's all that matters for markets.More:Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger! President DJTThere is talk that European ships will be doing the de-mining operations. Update: Ok scrap that, Trump says that Iran, with the help of the USA, has removed or is removing all sea mines.Also this:Thank you to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for your great bravery and help! President DONALD J. TRUMPThat's sort of notable for who was left out: Kuwait and Oman among them.Update: He's really excited and tweeting nonstop.Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World! President DONALD J. TRUMPFresh highs in risk assets. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump is out with another message:THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! PRESIDENT DONALD J.TRUMPIt's odd that it's still closed now that Iran has opened its side but it sounds like this is mostly a formality as a deal is likely to come very soon on ending the war.WTI crude oil was last down $10.83 to $83.82. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump posts on Truth Social:IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!Oil has cratered on the announcement from Iran's foreign minister:That's a big head and shoulders pattern.The market has been sniffing out a TACO since the start of the month and it's going much more smoothly than almost anyone hoped. There have really been no hiccups other than JD Vance leaving Pakistan but even that stunt was quickly downplayed. Axios reports that a three-page MOU is under consideration that will deliver $20 billion to Iran in exchange for nuclear material likely being shipped to a third country. The caveat here is that the Strait is open "for the remaining period of the ceasefire" but I take that as more of a formality. If they didn't think a deal was very close, they wouldn't be opening up anything.There are some big market moves across the board on the peace trade with the euro up 61 pips to 1.1872 and USD/JPY down 87 pips to 158.32.US 10-year yields are down 7.3 bps to 4.23% as the inflationary shock from the war is going to dissipate. The question now is how many ships will take Iran up on the offer and how quickly production can be restarted in the Middle East. It's going to take a real effort to restock energy storage but from the sounds of things, we're headed very quickly towards a comprehensive deal. The latest reports suggest in person meetings on Sunday in Pakistan and that's looking more like it will be the finalization of a deal rather than negotiations.Of course, these things are always toughest at the end so don't rule out a hiccup or some profit taking ahead of the weekend. S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% and the Nasdaq is set for a 13th straight gain. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

This is the headline we've been looking for for seven weeks.On twitter, Araghchi writes:In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran.It's over.Oil is falling rapidly on this as it looks like all the elements are falling into place for a peace deal. Negotiators are set to meet on Sunday in Pakistan but that's starting to look more like a formality unless there is a big snag.This follows a report saying that the US is considering a $20 billion cash-for-uranium deal. In terms of nuclear, it says:Under a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S., and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring.The report also says the deal includes a voluntary moratorium on nuclear enrichment, what Trump called a very strong statement.The same report also says that there has been "steady progress" in negotiations though "significant gaps remain".I will be keeping a very close eye on Trump's Truth Social in the next hour or so.Oil is getting absolutely wrecked on this headline as the speculative longs throw in the towel. WTI is down $9.65 to $85.04. I wouldn't have thought that many longs were still hanging around but the surprise here might be the 'completely open' portion as it looks like it will be full-bore on the oil shipments. Obviously Iran thinks a deal is basically a done deal at this point, and has agreed to something they think the US supports. Because this is essentially dropping all their leverage.There are even more signs of a broader peace in the Middle East as well with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa saying that Damascus is currently discussing a new security agreement with Israel that guarantees its withdrawal to the 1974 borders. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Axios reports that the US and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war.It details:One element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium.S&P 500 futures are up 40 points, roughly doubling on the headlines.Importantly, the report also says that there has been "steady progress" in negotiations though "significant gaps remain".Other details say that talks are likely in Pakistan on Sunday with support from Egypt and Turkey. It notes that the US is particularly concerned about Iran accessing the 450kg of 60% uranium buried in underground nuclear facilities.The US offered to release $6 billion earlier in negotiations and Iran demanded $27 billion. The US asked Iran to send the nuclear material to the US while Iran offered to down-blend it to power-generating levels.Under a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country, not necessarily the U.S., and some of it would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring.The report also says the deal includes a voluntary moratorium on nuclear enrichment.On Thursday, Trump said to the press that Iran had pledged during negotiations to issue a definitive statement affirming they will not pursue nuclear weapons. He also said a deal was very close.The report says it's not clear if there's anything in the deal on ballistic missiles and support for regional proxies, something Iran hawks have called for.This is yet another sign that a deal is close but also note that the stuff at the end is always the hardest and that markets have surely priced in a 95% chance of a deal already. The Nasdaq is up 12 days in a row and futures point to a 14th gain. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

It is vital to be careful about over-responding to high-frequency data, which contrasts with the perspective of financial marketsI am of the opinion that inflation expectations have not lost their anchorThe outlook for inflation seems less bleak than in 2022, largely due to increased slack in the labor marketMaintaining focus on the core goal of hitting the 2% inflation target is essentialTrade-offs must be considered, yet the priority of the inflation mandate should be highlightedMonetary policy cannot resolve issues stemming from real economic shocks; a genuine structural adjustment will be requiredReaching the inflation goal is somewhat in jeopardy; we must prioritize policies that offer the best protection against a 2022 recurrenceThe current path is clear when compared to where things stood six weeks agoMy perspective on "wait-and-see" approaches is that you must define exactly what data you are looking forI am not convinced that simply waiting is the most effective reactionIt remains an open question whether maintaining current rates is a sufficiently restrictive form of tighteningI would prefer that my MPC colleagues do more than just state we are taking a "wait-and-see" stanceBank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill signaled a growing impatience with passive monetary policy, challenging the "wait-and-see" mantra adopted by some of his colleagues and calling them out directly. Pill argued that simply holding rates may not be a sufficient form of tightening, especially as the path toward the 2% inflation target remains "at risk." While he acknowledged that the labor market currently shows more slack than during the 2022 crisis—helping to keep inflation expectations anchored—he warned that monetary policy is not a cure-all for "real" economic shocks, which require deeper structural adjustments.Pill’s rhetoric suggests a desire for more proactive insurance against a repeat of past inflationary surges. He cautioned against overreacting to volatile, high-frequency data favored by markets, advocating instead for a disciplined focus on the primary inflation mandate. By pushing the MPC to define clear triggers for action rather than just observing, Pill is positioning himself as a leading voice for a more assertive, "policy-as-insurance" approach to ensure price stability is not just maintained, but secured.In light of the comments (and broad positive risk sentiment), the pound is at the highs of the day, up 22 pips to 1.3545. The market is pricing in a 43% chance of a hike at the June meeting. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 250.9KSingle-detached homes- 4% m/mMultiple starts -3% m/mSeasonally adjusted starts -3%“March housing starts data point to a continued loss of momentum in housing construction, broadly in line with CMHC’s housing market outlook. While actual starts increased compared to a year ago, this largely reflects the exceptionally low level of construction activity in the first quarter of last year,” said Mathieu Laberge, CMHC’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice‑President, Housing Insights.Housing starts data in Canada is published monthly by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) through its Starts and Completions Survey. The data tracks the beginning of construction on new residential dwellings — both single-detached and multi-unit — across urban centres with populations of 10,000 or more, with rural areas estimated separately. CMHC reports both the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) and a six-month trend measure, the latter designed to smooth out the significant month-to-month volatility that characterizes multi-unit construction activity. The data is released on the eleventh business day of each month and is widely used by policymakers, the Bank of Canada, and the housing industry to assess the trajectory of new supply.Canada recorded 259,028 total housing starts in 2025, up 5.6% from 2024 and the fifth-highest annual total on record, driven by record levels of rental apartment construction. However, momentum faded through the second half of the year, with the six-month trend declining for four consecutive months into January 2026.In January 2026, the SAAR dropped 15% to 238,049 units from 280,668 in December, while the trend fell 3.5% to 254,794 units. February brought a partial rebound, with the SAAR rising 4.5% to 250,900 units and the trend essentially flat at 256,005. Actual starts in urban centres were up 10% year-over-year in February, with Vancouver posting a 60% increase and Montreal up 18%, while Toronto declined 28%. CMHC has cautioned that elevated construction costs, business uncertainty, and weakening condominium presale activity are expected to weigh on starts through 2026 and beyond.Yesterday, the Canadian Real Estate Association downgraded its housing market forecast, in large part due to the oil price and rate spike on the war in Iran.“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty, along with a mid-month jump in fixed mortgage rates tied to incoming higher inflation, piled on to an already shaky economic start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “2026 is still expected to see a modest amount of upward momentum in sales and a stabilization in prices as some pent-up first-time buyer demand enters the market, but the forecast for the year has had to be revised downward. The timing of higher mortgage rates, along with the perception they may be temporary, could keep would-be buyers away at the most active time of year – April, May, and June – as they wait for rates to come back down.” This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Oil prices remain under pressure amid US-Iran deal optimism. What's next?Markets keep with the more optimistic view in the final stretch of the weekGold struggles to gain steam amid US-Iran optimism as neutral Fed caps momentumIEA chief Birol says release of more emergency oil reserves is under considerationHow have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?BoE's Breeden: Iran war raises risk that vulnerabilities could crystalliseEuro area trade balance moves back to surplus in February just before US-Iran conflictMarkets:Brent crude down 3% to $96.40WTI crude (May contract) down 3.5% to $91.30, WTI crude (June contract) down 3.5% to $88.00June contract for WTI has more open interest and volume, provides a better read on "front-month" priceS&P 500 futures up 0.2%, major indices in Europe up 0.1% to 0.5%US dollar mixed but lightly changed across the boardUS 10-year yields down 1 bps to 4.30%Gold flat at $4,790, Silver up 1.1% to $79.30It's another slow session in Europe as markets are caught waiting on more US-Iran headlines before wanting to proceed.But despite the trepidation, the steady optimism continues to flow this time around ahead of the weekend. Traders and investors look to be expecting good news to come, as peace talks are expected to show progress before the ceasefire deadline on 22 April.Oil prices are sitting lower amid the better market mood, in spite of the fact that the Strait of Hormuz situation remains the same. The strait looks poised to enter its eighth straight week in de facto closure but market players are keeping the faith that the situation will be resolved sooner rather than later.Brent crude is down by around 3% to $96.40 while "front-month" WTI crude is down 3.5% to $88.00 on the day. The June contract is arguably the better indicator of front-month pricing, with volume and open interest overtaking the May contract. The latter is still very much in play though, with the cutoff date only coming on 20 April next week.In other markets, equities are continuing to fuel the optimism as investors push up stocks following Wall Street gains. The DAX is up 0.5% and CAC 40 up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures are seen up 0.2% on the day as well.As for major currencies, there wasn't much action with the dollar kept on a tight leash and mostly little changed. EUR/USD is up 0.1% to 1.1795 while USD/JPY is flat at 159.15 on the day, not offering much.Elsewhere, gold is flat at $4,790 while silver is up 1.1% to $79.30 as precious metals are also waiting to take a cue from the broader market mood.With the weekend set to arrive, it's all on whether there will be any positive/negative murmurs before markets take a breather from the chaos. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

It's been that kind of week in European trading, where markets are left in a bit of a bind but keeping the steady optimism for the most part. US-Iran developments continue to be the key thing to watch out for and market players are hanging on to hope that there will be some good news ahead of the ceasefire deadline on 22 April next week.In doing his part, US president Trump continues to fuel the optimism as he says the war will be over "very soon". And there are multiple reports about both sides looking for further progress in general. However, it's still a case of having to wait and see.For now, markets are definitely running with the narrative that good news will eventually come. The only question is when exactly will we see a material shift in the geopolitical landscape? Is it going to be in the next week? Or is it going to be in two to three months from now? There's a big difference there.Risk trades are holding on to hope that peace talks will succeed and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon enough. I can see the case of the former being pushed hard but on the latter, it is doubtful that we will get a big change to the status quo any time soon. And that is a big concern, with market players perhaps underestimating the impact of a prolonged disruption to the strait.S&P 500 futures are up another 0.2% today with European indices also holding modest gains on the session so far. That's another signal that risk sentiment continues to ignore the potential downside risks to the reality of the situation.As for major currencies, the dollar is steadier once again but not really doing all too much. EUR/USD keeps just below 1.1800 while USD/JPY sits just above 159.00 as we approach the final stages this week. Those levels are not too different from where we were in the past two days.If anything, it shows that currency traders are still holding some reservations and limiting their exposure. That as to not underestimate the potential for peace talks to fall apart.Looking to betting markets, we can also see the shift in optimism among the broader public and money players. The odds of a nuclear deal before 30 April has surged up to 44% now, after having been as low as 3% at the start of the month:However, even betting players are not really all too optimistic about the situation with regards to the Strait of Hormuz. They're only seeing 28% odds of traffic returning to normal in the strait before the end of the month:Those odds do jump up to roughly 65% for a timeline by the end of May and then 76% by the end of June. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWSilver has been outperforming gold recently amid tailwinds like lower real yields, looser financial conditions and lower US dollar. The momentum and volatility have certainly not been the same since the late January’s crash. The key difference has been the Fed which has pivoted away from the dovish stance. Nonetheless, silver should remain supported amid the positive US-Iran deal expectations which should keep any downside limited. Everything now hinges on US-Iran talks. If negotiations were to collapse again, we might get a bigger pullback, but as long as the ceasefire holds, the losses should remain limited. On the other hand, a peace deal might give silver another boost to extend the rally into new highs. For a much stronger rally though, silver would need the Fed to pivot back to a dovish stance.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that silver is continuing to slowly edge higher amid the positive US-Iran expectations. The natural target for the buyers is the major swing level at 96.35. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the swing level to position for a drop back into the 70.00 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 120.00 level next.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price broke above the key 77.98 resistance opening the door for more upside. We have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to pile in for a drop into the major trendline around the 67.50 level.SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, the recent consolidation above the 77.98 level might have formed a bullish flag. We can expect the buyers to step in around the lower bound of the pattern to keep pushing into new highs and increase the bullish bets on a break above the upper bound of the flag. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the lower bound of the flag to extend the pullback into the upward trendline targeting a break below it. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full speech hereIn her speech, Sarah Breeden, the Bank of England’s Deputy Governor for Financial Stability, assesses the current state of the global financial system against a backdrop of significant geopolitical and economic shocks. She begins by acknowledging that while the system has shown remarkable resilience over the last six years, weathering a pandemic, wars, and energy crises, history teaches that financial stability is often undermined when optimism overrides caution. She credits much of this current stability to the structural reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis, particularly the increased capital and liquidity held by banks. However, she cautions that risk has not disappeared but has instead migrated into less transparent and less regulated areas.Breeden identifies three specific vulnerabilities that currently mirror the warning signs of past crises: the rapid growth and opacity of private markets, the high levels of leverage in government bond markets driven by hedge fund activity, and stretched asset valuations in sectors like artificial intelligence. She expresses concern that these private credit markets have not yet been tested by a major macroeconomic shock in a high-interest-rate environment. Furthermore, she notes that public debt is at post-war highs, which reduces the fiscal space for governments to respond to future disruptions. The combination of leverage, complexity, and concentration in these areas suggests that while the banking core is strong, the wider system remains fragile. She also adds that the conflict in the Middle East raises the odds that these vulnerabilities could crystallise at the same time.To address these shifting risks, Breeden outlines a strategy focused on system-wide surveillance rather than just monitoring individual institutions. This includes conducting stress tests on non-bank financial sectors and private markets to understand how shocks might propagate through the real economy. She also highlights the need for international cooperation and the development of new tools, such as the Contingent NBFI Repo Facility, which allows the central bank to provide liquidity directly to insurance companies and pension funds during market dysfunction. Ultimately, Breeden concludes that while the system is better prepared than in the past, the "echoes" of previous crises are present, and the Bank’s role is to ensure these emerging risks are not dismissed during periods of relative calm. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Trade balance in the euro area already recorded a deficit of €1.0 billion (revised) in January, but at least returned to a surplus in February with an estimate of €11.5 billion. This improvement was primarily driven by the machinery and vehicles sector, where the surplus rose from €1.5 bn in January 2026 to €10.2 bn in February.But considering the fact that surging energy prices will be a factor starting from the March report, this latest one for February is not relevant whatsoever anymore. The euro area imports roughly 60% of its energy requirements and as such, we will observe a big terms-of-trade shock in the data next month.For some context, the trade balance in the euro area typically keeps at a surplus but ran a massive deficit for a prolonged period of time in during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And this looks set to be a repeat of that.The massive widening in the energy deficit can be a big problem, especially if oil and gas prices keep higher for a sustained period of time. That will in turn weigh more heavily on the economic performance in the euro area region.So while the energy deficit widening is the main thing to watch out, there could be a secondary impact on manufacturing too. When energy prices surge higher, it will eventually see energy-intensive production become too expensive. And that will also narrow the trade surplus from the chemicals sector for example.For some backdrop, chemicals and related products have always been producing the biggest trade surplus margin for the region. In February, it recorded a surplus of €16.2 billion. Trouble, trouble. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.