The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.CPI Y/Y4.0% (2%)3.7% (2%)3.5% (5%) 3.4% (37%) - consensus3.3% (33%)3.2% (7%)3.1% (2%)3.0% (5%)2.6% (5%)2.4% (2%)CPI M/M1.7% (2%) 1.5% (2%)1.2% (2%)1.1% (3%)1.0% (38%) - consensus0.9% (33%)0.8% (13%)0.7% (2%)0.6% (3%)0.4% (2%)Core CPI Y/Y3.0% (2%)2.8% (12%)2.7% (65%) - consensus2.6% (21%)Core CPI M/M0.4% (17%)0.3% (61%) - consensus0.2% (22%) Given the focus on the negotiations and the fact that an increase in March is widely because of the war, the market will likely look through today's data as everything hinges on the US-Iran talks anyway. We can see there's a huge dispersion in forecasts for the headline CPI, but a more contained view on Core CPI as it excludes food and energy prices. The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected. The market is pricing in 7 bps of easing by year-end, so there's no rate hike or rate cut expected in 2026. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWOil prices dived on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire agreement.The good news is that Iran held off from retaliating ahead of the peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. But the uncertainty has been keeping the markets in check, nonetheless. The Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed and the Iranians are just letting a limited number of ships to cross it. Trump has already complained about this on Truth Social, but for now both sides are holding off from breaking the ceasefire. Everything hinges on these peace talks as the restart of the war would trigger another surge in oil prices. On the other hand, a peace deal would lead to another selloff in crude oil potentially bringing prices back to pre-war levels. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that crude oil bounced around the 93.00 support zone as the buyers stepped in with a defined risk below the support to position for a rally back into the highs. The sellers will want to see the price falling below the support to pile in for a drop into the 78.00 support next.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price has been rejecting the support and the lower bound of the channel as the buyers continue to pile in for a rally into new highs. We can expect the buyers to continue to lean on the support and the bottom trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will need a break lower to open the door for new lows.CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the price action has been messy not giving any clear level where to lean on except the major support and the lower bound of the channel. The buyers should keep on leaning on the bottom trendline and the support, while the sellers should wait for a break below the support to pile in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. The US-Iran negotiations are expected to begin tomorrow now but we still might get some headline today, so keep an eye on that. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The price for oil that you're seeing on the screen is nothing more than a mirage. That is where markets are currently sitting at. WTI crude is sitting under $100 and even though it has been climbing a little since the Wednesday plunge, it belies the fact that prices in the physical market are much higher.And I'm not talking about a measly $5-10 higher. I'm talking about a gap of around $30-40 relative to what we're seeing in the futures market.This is as good a time as any to remind newer traders that when we trade oil prices, we're trading contracts - more specifically futures contracts. In this current predicament, we're trading the May contracts up until the point where we meet the cutoff and we roll over to the next month.And traders are taking the view that all is going to turn out well with regards to the US-Iran talks in the coming days. That as we see WTI crude trade around $99.85 currently.In the real world though, reports are stating that physical barrels for immediate delivery towards Asia and the Middle East are trading between $126 and $140 per barrel. That's a significant premium compared to what we're seeing futures trade for currently.The fact remains that Iran has restricted access via the Strait of Hormuz. So, many refineries and major corporations in Asia are willing enough to pay some $30–$40 premiums just to secure whatever physical oil that is already outside the strait.This sort of gap/arbitrage doesn't happen all too often and in due time, one can reasonably expect it to close. And when it does, it is going to be a quick and violent snap for markets. The only question is, which direction do we move towards?This is where the 21 April cutoff date is a pivotal one to watch out for. If there is no positive developments from US-Iran talks in the coming week or so, something has got to give. The May contracts will expire then and without any breakthrough in peace talks, expect there to be major scramble where traders try to buy every last contract to secure whatever oil is left.In turn, that should see a major spike that could close the gap we're seeing between the futures and physical market. In short, think of the 21 April deadline as the final offramp on a highway before a massive traffic congestion up ahead.So, strap yourselves in. This wild roller coaster ride may yet continue if we don't hear of anything good in Islamabad this weekend. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar sold off across the board on Wednesday after Trump announced on Truth Social a two-sided ceasefire agreement for two weeks while the US and Iran negotiate a lasting peace deal. Since then, the price action became more rangebound due to Israeli attacks against Lebanon which the Iranians have been saying was part of the ceasefire agreement. The good news is that Iran held off from retaliating ahead of the peace talks in Islamabad this weekend. But the uncertainty has been keeping the markets in check, nonetheless. Everything hinges on these peace talks as the restart of the war would create strong distress in the markets and potentially lead to a global recession. In the short-term, a peace deal would weigh on the greenback amid renewed rate cut bets and unwinding of the March positioning. On the other hand, a breakdown of negotiations would give the dollar another boost, potentially pushing it into new highs. JPY:On the JPY side, the currency strengthened recently just because of dollar weakness and as things settled a bit, the yen restarted its downward trend as the Japanese macro conditions remain negative. In fact, despite the growing expectations of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting, inflation in Japan has been gradually easing with most metrics being near or below the 2% target. Moreover, the US-Iran war hasn’t only put upward pressure on inflation but also downward pressure on growth. The end of the war would certainly be good news for the economy and should lift business sentiment which might eventually translate in favourable conditions for a rate hike. Right now, the market is pricing in a 51% chance of a BoJ hike in April. The central bank is more likely to hold interest rates steady though and let things settle after the conclusion of the war. What the BoJ could do at the April meeting is to lay the groundwork for a rate hike in June if they think they have the right conditions in place. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY couldn’t reach the 157.65 support and bounced around the 158.00 handle. There’s not much we can glean from this timeframe, so we need to zoom in to see some more details. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the price is struggling around the 159.30 resistance zone. The sellers are stepping in here with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 157.65 support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to extend the rally into the downward trendline around the 159.80 level.USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have an upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the 157.65 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday we conclude the week with the US CPI report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

It all comes down to this. After agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, it now boils down to negotiations between the US and Iran to see what becomes of this temporary truce. There have been a lot of mixed messages since the start of the week but all of that won't matter if we get positive news from talks in Pakistan today or during the weekend.For now, markets are keeping calmer still but very much on edge amid the fragile truce ahead of talks. Let's take stock of the situation as we look to what we can expect when the two sides sit down.Trump announced a two-week ceasefire, conditional on talks and Iran reopening the Strait of HormuzIran confirms the ceasefire, reaffirming that they have put forward a 10-point proposalThe US says that they are negotiating based on a 15-point proposal instead, with "many terms already accepted"Iran refutes that and says that three terms of the ceasefire agreement have already been violatedThat especially when it comes to Lebanon, with Israel having its own agenda despite US promisesTrump threatens Iran with more military strikes if there is no deal and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closedIran then denies wanting to send a delegation to Islamabad for talksThe US camp continues to reaffirm that talks will go ahead and are expecting further developmentsIf you look past all the noise, there is one thing that is clear. US president Trump wants to de-escalate here and he really wants to tone down tensions so as to pull back from the conflict. That as he wants to find a way to allow for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen most importantly. And for broader markets as well, that is the most pertinent issue in this whole war.Trump already is needing to face everything he hates in markets due to the conflict. If not for his ceasefire declaration, we're seeing higher oil prices, a falling stock market, a stronger dollar, higher bond yields, and more conviction for the Fed to not cut interest rates. Those are all the things he loathes, and they are all happening all at once.To rub salt in the wound, surging energy prices is making it tough for the US consumer - not least with tariffs - and that is affecting his voting support ahead of the US midterms later this year.So, there is a lot at stake here for Trump.As such, there is a strong likelihood that we can expect the US to want to find some ground to work with to bring this over the line. The only issue is how can Trump angle that to sell a "total and complete" victory back home? Knowing him, he will definitely find a way regardless.And that leaves us with two main questions after that. The first being will Israel be willing to just let the conflict die off? After all, they have their own agenda to push and have been seizing the opportunity to do so in recent weeks. The second and perhaps most importantly, will Iran continue to run a tight ship on control over the Strait of Hormuz? No pun intended there.The latter is arguably the most important thing for markets. And it is also Iran's trump card in negotiating with the US this weekend. Again, no pun intended (okay, maybe). If there is only to be a more limited reopening of the strait, that will be a problem for markets still.And I can imagine that to be the case unless the US does give in to some terms to appease Iran. The big sticking point is on uranium. Will Iran hang Hormuz over the US in not wanting to concede on this and give up enrichment plans? We shall see.After talking the talk, it is now time to walk the walk. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than a couple of low tier releases like the Swiss consumer confidence and the Italian industrial production. None of the data is going to change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted. Today, the US and Iran delegations are expected to arrive in Islamabad to start negotiations on a lasting peace deal. The talks are set to begin tomorrow and will last for as long as needed to reach an agreement unless one of the parties withdraws before a deal. The global economy hinges on these negotiations.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the Canadian employment report and the US CPI data. The Canadian employment report is expected to show 15K jobs added in March compared to -83.9K in the prior month and the unemployment rate to tick higher to 6.8% vs 6.7% prior. Recent data has been pointing to weaker economic activity and elevated uncertainty with risks to growth tilted to the downside. The US-Iran war is expected to weigh even more on economic activity and put upward pressure on inflation. The Bank of Canada is likely to look through the inflation spike and keep rates steady because the current conditions actually point to a rate cut rather than a rate hike.The US CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.4% vs 2.4% prior, while the Core CPI Y/Y is seen at 2.7% vs 2.5% prior. A spike in headline inflation is widely expected due to the US-Iran war, so the markets will likely look through the March report. The Fed is in a hard neutral stance but has opened the door for potential tightening in case inflation expectations start to drift higher and the war drags on longer than expected.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS11:00 GMT/07:00 ET - ECB's de Guindos (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior +1.9%HICP +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelimPrior +2.0%This just reaffirms the initial estimates, with German headline inflation spiking amid higher energy prices from the US-Iran conflict. Destatis notes that: "Significant price increases for energy products are driving inflation. In particular, fuels and heating oil have become dramatically more expensive for consumers since the beginning of the war."Of note, energy price inflation was seen up 7.2% compared to the same month last year. This was a decrease of 1.9% instead in February last month. Much of that was led by a surge in fuel prices, which were up 20% year-on-year.As for the more important metric i.e. core annual inflation, that is seen at 2.5%. So, that is still holding thereabouts since the beginning of the year. However, expect higher energy prices to eventually feed through to other aspects of the economy and in turn drive up core prices too. That especially if the Middle East conflict does not ease in the week(s) ahead.Looking at the more detailed breakdown, food price inflation was seen up by 2.3% year-on-year. Meanwhile, services inflation continues to run hot at 3.2% year-on-year. The latter remains a key sticking point in keeping more stubborn price pressures in Germany. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

There aren't any major expiries to take note of on the day, with the full list seen below.As things stand, all eyes are fixated on the US-Iran conflict still. Talks are set to begin in Islamabad later today and that is what markets are watching very closely. As such, we're very much caught in a bind now awaiting further headlines and murmurs about how things are going to go later in the day.The dollar remains vulnerable as risk optimism holds but it is one that is fragile, just like the ceasefire truce. But without a lack of catalysts in the session ahead, we might see dollar pairs keep more rangebound awaiting further developments. It's all on headline risks now.Iran might deny wanting to send a delegation but the mood on the ground is that they are leaning towards participating, otherwise we wouldn't see US president Trump make such a big show of it.From hereon, it depends on how talks go and what conditions are set out and agreed upon. That especially with regards to the situation in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz.There's still much to look forward to but you get the sense that with Trump wanting to de-escalate and pull back on the conflict, that might be just what he gets. He will surely sell it as a "complete and total victory" but as long as tensions ease, markets will like that - at least until we get to the reality of the Strait of Hormuz situation.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Australia seeks fuel security in Singapore as Hormuz disruption hits supplyJapan wholesale inflation jumps as BOJ flags stagflation risk from oil shockJapan to release more oil reserves, shift supply away from Hormuz routesChina inflation turns but signals “bad inflation” as energy costs rise and demand lagsBoJ flags stagflation risk if Middle East shock deepens, but says Japan not there yet.Japan finmin Katayama: govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborateChina March 2026 CPI 1.0% y/y (expected 1.2%) PPI 0.5% y/y (expected 0.4%)PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8654 (vs. estimate at 6.8313)Bank of Korea holds policy rate at 2.5%, as expected.Powell, Bessent flag systemic risk from advanced AI modelsADB warns Asia growth to slow sharply if Middle East disruptions persistJapan’s Katayama signals no urgency on oil risks, backs G7 stance on conflictJapan data, March PPI 2.6% y/y (expected 2.4%, prior 2%)Massive Dos Bocas fire adds refining risk. Mexico’s flagship refinery stays below capacityZandi warns payrolls mislead, VCI signals rising US recession risk (what's VCI, you ask?)NZ PMI stays in expansion but confidence drops sharply as global risks build.Warsh Fed hearing delayed by paperwork holdup (Powell set to stay longer?)White House warns staff not to bet on Iran war, raises (lack of) ethics concernsTrump touts oil flow recovery, but Hormuz chaos tells another storyTrump warns Iran over Hormuz transit fees as shipping tensions escalateIMF warns Iran war fuels inflation surge and global growth slowdowninvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Steps toward ceasefire in Lebanon lift the moodSummary:Iran denies Islamabad talks, pushing back on WSJ report and linking talks to Lebanon ceasefire Japan’s Katayama escalates FX rhetoric, flags readiness for intervention Fed leadership timeline slips as Warsh hearing delayed → policy continuity BoJ flags stagflation risk if Middle East shock persists South Korea holds rates amid inflation-growth trade-off China data confirms “bad inflation” dynamic (PPI up, CPI soft) Markets steady: Asia equities firmer, USD slightly stronger, oil rangeboundIranian state media denied that a delegation had arrived in Islamabad for weekend talks with the U.S., pushing back on earlier reporting and reiterating that Tehran has no plans to engage until a ceasefire is established in Lebanon. The denial reinforces the theme of conflicting signals around diplomacy, keeping uncertainty elevated despite the broader ceasefire backdrop.In Japan, Finance Minister Katayama stepped up verbal intervention, warning authorities are prepared to act “on all fronts” against market moves, citing heightened speculative activity across crude oil and FX. The rhetoric signals growing discomfort with currency volatility, though no concrete measures were outlined.On the Fed front, the Senate Banking Committee dropped plans for a hearing on nominee Kevin Warsh next week due to missing paperwork, effectively delaying the confirmation timeline. The development points to continued leadership continuity for now, removing a near-term policy uncertainty.Central bank messaging across Asia continues to reflect the same core dilemma. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino said Japan is not currently in stagflation but warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push up inflation while weighing on growth. Similarly, South Korea’s central bank held rates steady, maintaining a cautious stance as policymakers balance rising price pressures against downside risks to activity.China’s latest data reinforced the emerging inflation narrative. Producer prices returned to growth (+0.5% y/y), ending a multi-year deflation streak, while consumer inflation undershot expectations (+1.0% y/y), highlighting the divergence between rising input costs and weak domestic demand.Markets were relatively steady. Asia-Pacific equities were mostly firmer, extending gains seen on Wall Street following ceasefire optimism, despite sporadic flare-ups. The US dollar edged higher, while major pairs were broadly stable. Oil traded in a tight range and gold was little changed, suggesting markets remain in a holding pattern as geopolitical uncertainty persists. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Australia turns to Singapore for fuel security as Hormuz disruption tightens supply.Summary:PM Anthony Albanese in Singapore to secure fuel supply amid Hormuz disruption Singapore supplies ~55% of Australia’s petrol imports (South Korea supplies ~22% and India~11.5%) Australia imports ~84% of refined fuel, highlighting vulnerability Domestic diesel shortages already impacting mining and agriculture Singapore refining hub also under strain due to crude supply disruption Australia supplying ~1/3 of Singapore’s LNG, reinforcing mutual dependency Broader regional coordination underway as Asia scrambles for energy security Australia is intensifying efforts to secure fuel supplies as the disruption to global energy flows caused by the Middle East conflict exposes the country’s heavy reliance on imported refined products.Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Singapore for high-level talks with his counterpart Lawrence Wong, with energy security at the top of the agenda. The visit underscores the strategic importance of Singapore, which serves as Australia’s largest supplier of petrol and a key provider of diesel and jet fuel.The timing reflects growing urgency. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and shipping activity still severely constrained despite a fragile ceasefire, supply chains across Asia remain under pressure. For Australia, the risks are particularly acute given its limited domestic refining capacity and high dependence on imports.Australia consumes roughly one million barrels of oil per day and imports the vast majority of its refined fuel needs. Over time, domestic refining capacity has declined sharply, leaving Australia reliant on regional hubs such as Singapore. Recent data shows that more than half of Australia’s petrol imports originate from Singapore alone, with additional supply coming from South Korea and India.The strain is already being felt domestically. Tight diesel supplies, critical for transport, mining, and agriculture, are beginning to impact key sectors of the economy. Australia’s geographic scale and distribution challenges amplify these pressures, making supply disruptions more difficult to manage.Singapore, while a critical partner, is not immune to the broader shock. As one of Asia’s largest refining centres, it depends on crude flows that have been disrupted by the conflict, limiting its ability to fully offset shortages elsewhere in the region.The relationship between the two countries is mutually reinforcing. Australia supplies a significant share of Singapore’s liquefied natural gas imports, creating a degree of interdependence that policymakers are now leaning on in a period of heightened stress.Canberra has also expanded engagement across the region, holding discussions with multiple Asian partners to diversify supply sources and ensure continuity.In effect, the episode highlights a structural vulnerability: Australia’s exposure to external supply shocks in refined fuels. While diplomatic efforts may ease near-term pressures, the broader lesson points to the importance of supply diversification and resilience in an increasingly fragmented global energy landscape. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s wholesale inflation surge highlights rising cost pressures, with the BoJ warning of potential stagflation risks amid the Iran-driven energy shock.Summary:Japan wholesale inflation (CGPI) rises 2.6% y/y, above expectations Input costs surge, with import prices jumping 7.9% y/y Broad-based price pressures driven by oil, metals, chemicals BOJ flags vigilance on stagflation risk but says Japan not there yet Markets price ~60% chance of rate hike at April meeting Iran war complicates policy: higher inflation vs weaker growth Consumer confidence deteriorating sharply, adding downside risk Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerated in March, reinforcing signs that cost pressures are broadening across the economy and sharpening the policy challenge for the Bank of Japan as it weighs its next move.The corporate goods price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and picking up from the prior month, while monthly price growth also strengthened. The data points to a widening pass-through of higher input costs, with firms raising prices across sectors including machinery and food as energy, metals and chemical costs climb. A key driver has been the sharp rise in import prices, which surged nearly 8% year-on-year. This reflects the impact of the Iran conflict on global energy markets, with oil prices rising significantly amid disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz. For Japan, which remains heavily dependent on imported fuel, the shock is feeding quickly into upstream pricing.Financial markets have responded by pushing yields higher, with shorter-dated government bond yields hitting record levels. Rate expectations have also shifted, with investors now assigning a meaningful probability to a near-term policy tightening.However, the policy outlook is far from straightforward. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino stressed that the economy is not currently in stagflation, noting that inflation remains around target and growth is still holding above potential. Nevertheless, he acknowledged that a prolonged conflict could create a difficult trade-off, with rising inflation coinciding with weakening economic activity.This dilemma is already beginning to take shape. While price pressures are building, consumer sentiment has deteriorated sharply, reflecting the strain of higher fuel costs on households. This suggests that the inflation impulse is being driven more by external shocks than by strong domestic demand.For the BoJ, the path forward hinges on how persistent the current shock proves to be. A temporary spike in costs may not warrant aggressive tightening, but a sustained period of elevated energy prices could push inflation higher while eroding growth—forcing a more complex policy response.In short, Japan is not yet in stagflation, but the risks are rising, and the central bank is increasingly navigating a narrow path between inflation control and economic support. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan expands oil reserve releases and diversifies supply routes to mitigate Middle East disruption risks.Summary:Japan to release an additional 20 days of oil reserves from May Follows earlier 50-day release initiated in March Total reserves remain substantial at ~230 days Tokyo aims to source over 50% of imports outside Hormuz routes Diversifying supply across US, Latin America, Africa, and Asia Prioritising fuel allocation to critical sectors Move highlights growing energy security concerns amid Middle East disruptionJapan is stepping up efforts to safeguard its energy security, announcing plans to release an additional 20 days’ worth of oil from strategic reserves as it seeks to offset risks stemming from the Middle East conflict.Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said the extra release will begin in May, adding to the 50 days of reserves already being made available since mid-March. The move is designed to stabilise domestic supply conditions while the government accelerates efforts to diversify import routes away from the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that has been heavily disrupted during the conflict.Despite the drawdown, Japan remains well-buffered. As of early April, the country held reserves equivalent to roughly 230 days of consumption, including a significant public stockpile. This provides policymakers with flexibility to manage short-term supply shocks without immediately compromising long-term energy security.A central pillar of the strategy is reducing reliance on Hormuz-linked supply routes. By May, Japan expects to secure more than half of its oil imports via alternative pathways, including shipments routed through ports on the Red Sea and the UAE that bypass the strait. At the same time, Tokyo has broadened its supplier base, reaching out to producers across the United States, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Latin America, and Africa.The diversification push reflects Japan’s heavy dependence on Middle Eastern crude, which typically accounts for around 95% of imports. The current conflict has exposed the vulnerability of that concentration, particularly as disruptions to shipping flows and elevated insurance costs complicate logistics.Domestically, the government is also taking steps to manage distribution. Suppliers have been asked to prioritise deliveries to critical sectors such as healthcare, transportation, agriculture, and fisheries, ensuring that essential services remain insulated from supply disruptions.For markets, the significance of the move lies less in the immediate volume of oil released and more in what it signals. Japan is effectively shifting into energy-contingency mode, using reserves as a bridge while reconfiguring supply chains. This reinforces the broader narrative of tightening global energy logistics, even as countries with sufficient stockpiles attempt to cushion the impact. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China exits factory-gate deflation, but weak consumer demand and rising energy costs highlight an uneven and fragile inflation backdrop.Summary:China PPI turns positive at +0.5% y/y, ending multi-year deflation CPI soft at +1.0% y/y, below expectations and slowing from prior Confirms earlier theme: imported energy inflation vs weak domestic demand Oil shock from Iran war driving factory-gate price rebound Japan CGPI accelerates to +2.6% y/y, import prices surge +7.9% y/y Highlights Asia-wide inflation impulse from energy, not demand Raises risk of “bad inflation” squeezing margins and consumptionChina’s March inflation data confirms a key turning point in its price cycle, with factory-gate prices returning to growth for the first time in over three years, even as consumer inflation remains subdued, underscoring the uneven nature of the current inflation impulse.Producer prices rose 0.5% year-on-year, breaking a prolonged period of deflation and marking a notable shift in the pricing environment. The rebound aligns with earlier signals that rising global energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through into industrial input prices. Oil markets have surged sharply since late February, with benchmark crude prices climbing significantly, creating a clear channel for imported inflation into China’s manufacturing sector.However, the consumer side tells a different story. Consumer inflation slowed to 1.0% year-on-year, missing expectations and easing from the prior month. This divergence highlights a critical imbalance: while upstream costs are rising, domestic demand remains relatively soft, limiting the pass-through to consumers.This dynamic reinforces the concept of “bad inflation”, price increases driven by supply shocks rather than strong economic activity. For Chinese manufacturers, this is particularly challenging, as higher input costs squeeze already thin profit margins without the offset of stronger demand.The data also fits into a broader regional pattern. In Japan, wholesale inflation accelerated more sharply, with corporate goods prices rising 2.6% year-on-year and import prices surging nearly 8%. This suggests that the energy-driven inflation impulse is being felt across Asia, though with varying degrees of transmission depending on domestic conditions.China’s position is somewhat more resilient relative to peers, supported by strategic energy reserves and diversified import sources. Even so, the outlook is becoming more complex. While the return of positive producer price growth may signal an exit from deflation, it does not necessarily point to a healthy recovery.Policymakers face a delicate balance. The inflation impulse reduces the urgency for aggressive monetary easing, while growth risks remain tilted to the downside, particularly if energy prices stay elevated. Recent adjustments to domestic fuel prices indicate that authorities are already allowing some of the external cost pressures to feed through.In essence, China is moving out of deflation, but into a less favourable inflation regime driven by external shocks rather than domestic strength, complicating both the growth outlook and policy response. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Summary:BoJ’s Himino says Japan not currently in stagflation Warns prolonged Middle East conflict could create stagflation-like conditions Highlights policy dilemma: weaker growth vs rising inflation BoJ to assess scale and duration of shock before adjusting policy Reaffirms data-dependent approach at each meeting Signals flexibility, but no shift away from inflation target Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino signalled a cautious but flexible policy stance, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could create difficult trade-offs for policymakers, even as he downplayed the risk of stagflation in Japan for now.Speaking in parliament, Himino emphasised that there is no strict definition of stagflation, but made clear that Japan’s current economic conditions do not fit that description. Inflation remains around the central bank’s 2% target, while economic growth is still running above potential, suggesting that the economy remains on relatively stable footing despite rising global risks.However, the outlook is becoming more uncertain. Himino warned that if the conflict in the Middle East persists, it could simultaneously weaken growth and push inflation higher—creating a policy dilemma for the central bank. Such a scenario would complicate decision-making, as traditional policy responses to inflation and growth shocks can pull in opposite directions.The key variable, according to Himino, is the scale and duration of the external shock. A short-lived disruption may have limited impact, but a prolonged period of elevated energy prices and supply uncertainty could materially alter Japan’s economic trajectory. Given Japan’s heavy reliance on imported energy, sustained price increases would feed directly into inflation while weighing on household consumption and corporate margins.Despite these risks, Himino reaffirmed that the BoJ will remain focused on achieving its inflation target in a stable and sustainable manner. Rather than pre-emptively adjusting policy, the central bank will continue to assess incoming data at each meeting, updating its forecasts and risk assessments as conditions evolve.This underscores a data-dependent approach at a time when the global environment remains highly fluid. The BoJ appears to be positioning itself to respond flexibly, balancing the need to support growth against the risk of inflation overshooting due to external shocks.In essence, while Japan is not currently facing stagflation, the risk is no longer theoretical. The trajectory of the Middle East conflict—and its impact on energy markets—will be critical in shaping the BoJ’s policy path in the months ahead.---The comments reinforce a cautious BoJ stance, with flexibility preserved. The acknowledgment of a potential stagflation dilemma may limit aggressive tightening expectations while keeping focus on energy-driven inflation risks and yen sensitivity. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan finmin Katayama: Govt ready to take action on all fronts vs markets We are of the view that speculative action is heightening in crude oil, futures and FX markets I have been saying govt ready to take decisive action but won’t elaborate on future responseVerbal intervention effort. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

China inflation. PPI first positive y/y since September of 2022.I'll have more to come on this separately, detail, analysis etc. .. Here: China inflation turns but signals “bad inflation” as energy costs rise and demand lagsPPI m/m +1% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate.PBOC injects 2bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Bank of Korea, the South Korean central bank, kept its policy interest rate steady at 2.5%, as expected.Eyeing fuel and domestic inflation, growth risks. Governor Rhee Chang-yong will hold a press conference at 0210 GMT. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US regulators convene major banks over AI-driven cyber risks, highlighting growing concern over systemic vulnerabilities.Info via Bloomberg (gated).Summary:US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Jerome Powell held urgent meeting with major banks Focus: cyber risks tied to advanced AI model “Mythos” Model reportedly capable of identifying and exploiting system vulnerabilities Regulators see AI-driven cyber threats as a top financial stability risk Systemically important banks urged to strengthen defences Controlled rollout via “Project Glasswing” to limit risk exposure Highlights emerging intersection of AI capability and systemic financial riskUS financial authorities have moved swiftly to address a growing threat at the intersection of artificial intelligence and financial stability, convening an urgent meeting with major Wall Street banks to assess emerging cyber risks.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell brought together senior executives from the largest US banks in Washington this week, underscoring the seriousness with which regulators are treating the issue. The focus of the discussions was a new generation of AI systems, particularly a model known as “Mythos,” which is believed to possess advanced capabilities in identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities across widely used software and infrastructure.The meeting, organised at short notice, reflects rising concern that increasingly sophisticated AI tools could materially alter the cyber threat landscape. Regulators are worried that such systems, if misused, could enable more effective and scalable attacks on financial institutions, raising the risk of systemic disruption.All banks involved in the discussions are considered systemically important, meaning any compromise of their systems could have far-reaching implications for the broader financial system. By bringing these institutions together, policymakers appear to be aiming for a coordinated and pre-emptive response rather than reacting after vulnerabilities are exploited.The concerns are not purely theoretical. The developers of the model have themselves acknowledged both its offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and have taken steps to limit its release. Access has initially been restricted to a small group of major technology and financial firms as part of a controlled rollout designed to strengthen system resilience ahead of wider deployment.This initiative, referred to as “Project Glasswing,” is intended to ensure that critical infrastructure is hardened before similar technologies become more broadly available. It reflects a growing recognition that advances in AI are not just productivity-enhancing, but also introduce new classes of risk.The issue also intersects with broader tensions between the technology sector and policymakers. The company behind the model is reportedly engaged in a legal dispute with US authorities over its classification as a supply-chain risk, highlighting the complex regulatory environment surrounding cutting-edge AI development.Overall, the episode signals a shift in regulatory focus. Cybersecurity risks driven by AI are increasingly being treated not just as operational concerns, but as potential threats to financial stability itself. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. Earlier:ING turns bullish on Chinese yuan, shifts USD/CNY forecast lower to 6.70–7.05Yuan seen strengthening to 6.8 as China resilience offsets seasonal weaknessComing up:Economic and event calendar in Asia 10 April 2026. Chinese inflation, huge news expected!China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.