Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 3Today's session confirms the return of volatility ahead of Friday's US Labor data, as participants keep placing and unwinding their bets for the extremely consequential event.In that aspect, metals have been rallying massively since the past two weeks and that comes as Markets really start to be afraid about the FED's Independence (despite Governors and FED Speakers doing their best to calm the situation).Looking at Gold, the rally started after FED Chair Jerome Powell's switch in tone at his Jackson Hole speech: While every other asset classes have mean-reverted or ranged since, Silver, Gold, Platinum and other precious metals have rallied without pullback since.In today's speech, FED's Waller reiterated his dovish views for the upcoming FED meeting (September 18) and, knowing that he is one of the favorites to become the next FED Chair after Powell's departure (given that he doesn't get fired), he maintained very balanced views.He might really be the best for the job from what it seems. Read More:Hesitant equities and (maybe) better relations between US and Canada — North American mid-week Market updateGold Hits All-Time High Amid Flight to SafetyDow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the indexCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView Except for metals, which continue to perform strongly (though gold saw some late-session profit-taking), the standout flows of the day came from a rebound in cryptocurrency altcoins, while oil — strong in recent sessions — lost momentum, falling 2.3% over the past 24 hours.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 3 – Source: OANDA Labs Today's price action in FX was focused around mean-reverting yesterday's moves: The US Dollar is back at the bottom while the Pound saw some relief mean-reversion.Overall, tomorrow's volatility is not a given (there are still a few key data releases to monitor), but currency markets should really see the action resume on Friday.Take a look at our latest Dollar Index (DXY) analysis to spot levels for the USD ahead of Friday's action.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. As often, the session is not over yet for AUD traders who will have to monitor the Australian trade balance numbers, releasing this evening at 21:30.Tomorrow's session is promising in terms of fundamentals which may exacerbate anguish ahead of Friday:The early birds will assist to the European Retail sales data releasing at 5:00 A.M which may be interesting to see if things are picking up a while after the ECB cut rates back to 2%.However, the day really starts with the North American session: 8:15 (A.M. ET) will see the release of ADP private employment data followed by the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30.Later in the morning, the US will see Global PMIs (at 9:45 A.M.) followed by the heavier-influence ISM Services PMI at 10:00.To compliment the data, Markets are awaiting comments from FED's Williams (voter every year as he's the head of the NY FED) and FED's Goolsbee (2025 voter), two influential FED members.Keep an eye on any potential hints on Employment and their views for the upcoming FOMC.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to our mid-week North American Markets overview, where we examine the current themes in North America and provide an overview of indices and currency performances.All markets have been waiting long for Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls release (8:30 A.M. ET), as no other piece of data seems to count anymore. (Markets are still keeping an eye on inflation-led tariffs, of course, but it appears that Labor still takes the upper hand.)It seems that with the latest speech from Canadian PM's Mark Carney and some political micmacs, the relationship between him and US President Trump has been rebuilding, but markets are still awaiting for more.Since Friday, August 22nd, FED Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, Equity Markets have been holding strong amid a lack of diplomatic progress (wars don't affect markets too much these days).Another element that underlies stocks' resistance to fall is the bizarre Market atmosphere that is felt when looking at the ongoing skyrocketing price action in Metals.Yields are going up throughout the globe (down small today in the US), and metals are rising. This shows that the ongoing trade resembles another phase of currency debasing.Don't forget that metals are US dollar-denominated, and with the rangebound FX markets, these are direct fiat currency outflows – Monitoring gold purchases from Central banks and outflows from exchanges could be interesting for the period to come.By the way, before we tackle the charts of this mid-week recap, metals keep creating more craziness in markets with this anecdote: The London Metal Market delayed its open to 9:30 for mysterious reasons (probably the exchange or some big players being caught in awkward positions). Read More:USDJPY stays capped as BoJ Governor Ueda and PM discuss policy – Pre-NFP breakout levelsDow Jones forms rising wedge ahead of NFP and FED's Waller comments on rate cuts – what it means for the index Let's dive right into a few charts to get an overview on North American Markets, from US and Canadian equity Markets performance, USD and CAD performance to USDCAD and DXY charts.North-American Indices Performance North American Top Indices performance since last Monday – September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView The TSX really keeps surprising to the upside every week – a very consistent performance.On the other hand, US markets are starting to feel more uncertain, all down around 1% since the past Monday (European markets are even worse, hurt by Yield and government uncertainties).Dollar Index 8H Chart Dollar Index 8H Chart, September 3, 2025 – Source: TradingView With neither fundamentals or technicals changing for the Greenback, I invite you to check up our (valid until Friday) US Dollar analysis.US Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors USD vs other Majors, September 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView. The rangebound action in FX Markets can be quickly observed on the yoyos observed against all currencies – The US Dollar is consolidating since mid-August, still awaiting for more clarity on the extent and pace of upcoming rate cuts.A strong or even a decent beat NFP (+30K vs expectations or more) should heavily boost the Greenback.On the other hand, an as-expected to small miss should leave the Dollar consolidating/elevate slightly, while a larger miss (above -30K relative to exps.) should relaunch the USD DowntrendCanadian Dollar Mid-Week Performance vs Majors CAD vs other Majors, September 3, 2025 - Source: TradingView. Rebounding against every currency except for the Australian Dollar (which keeps surprising Markets with upside to their data), it seems that the Loonie has found another intermediate bottom.It had been struggling quite largely against its peers throughout August, dragged back down from the renewed wave of US Dollar weakness.Intraday Technical Levels for the USD/CAD USDCAD 8H Chart, August 27, 2025 – Source: TradingView The USDCAD price action is still looping in limbo trading, but one thing is for sure: A lot of positioning has happened around 1.38 (current trading) with this level potential acting as a magnet if fundamentals keep showing no progress.It will be, like for everything, up to US Dollar strength or weakness.A beat on the Canadian Employment might help sellers further but for now, the action is contained between 1.3750 and 1.3850.Watch for breakouts to both sides on Friday, while a failure to do so should strengthen the current range further.Levels to place on your USDCAD charts:Resistance Levels:1.38 immediate resistance Zone (+/- 150 pips – Immediate resistance)1.3850 Main resistance1.3925 Aug 22 highs last Friday highsMay Highs 1.40185Support Levels:8H MA 200 and 50-Day MA 1.3730Key longer-term pivot Zone 1.3750Main Support Zone 1.3675 to 1.3686An invitation to check out our most recent USDCAD analysis as not much has changed since.US and Canada Economic Calendar for the Rest of the Week US and Canadian Data for the rest of the week, MarketPulse Economic Calendar The importance of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report can't be emphasized enough. An NFP preview will soon be published on our website so stay logged in!Canadian employment also gets released at the same time (Friday morning 8:30 ET).Later that day will see the release of Canadian Ivey PMI data (Friday 10:00 A.M.)Of course, don't forget tomorrow's US Services PMI data which seems to be losing a bit of traction as of late in terms of market movement – but always stay ready for surprises with such data.And stay in touch with the army of FED Speakers all the way to Friday afternoon.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Market Analyst Kenny Fisher, Nick Syiek (TraderNick) and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Gold prices have extended their weekly gains to 3.5% and also a seventh successive green trading day. With bond yields rising and interest rate cuts coming, market participants are facing a host of uncertainties.Add to the mix the renewed uncertainty around US tariffs with many of them ruled illegal by a Federal appeals court last Friday and market jitters are at a peak.Rate Cut Expectations Continue to Rise The current macro economic backdrop is a complicated one. Recent developments globally continue to point toward unfavorable scenarios from fiscal issues in Europe and Fed independence concerns in the US.Since Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, rate cut expectations have continued to rise. Fed Chair Powell de facto admitted that employment risks have overtaken inflation concerns underlining the importance of Friday's jobs data.Most Read: GBP/USD Forecast: Cable Recovers but the Outlook Remains Murky. WIll NFP Data Serve as a Catalyst?It would take an extraordinary print to dampen market expectations significantly with the Fed expected to cut rates by 25 bps at the upcoming September 17 Fed meeting. LSEG data currently shows a 95% probability while the implied rate has also seen potential rate cuts climb from around 40 bps to around 57 bps through December 2025. Source: LSEG Any decision by the Fed may also come with a bit of controversy. Given that inflation remains well above the Fed target of 2% (despite comments by some Fed policymakers of a higher neutral rate moving forward), the discussion will be around whether the decision has been influenced by US President Donald Trump and the Feds independence.The constant attacks on the Fed by the Trump administration as well as the firing of Lisa Cook have raised many eyebrows.Gold ETF Inflows Soar, Geopolitical Risks Rise Market participants have been putting a lot of money into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that are backed by gold. The SPDR Gold Trust GLD, which is the biggest gold ETF, reported that its gold holdings have gone up to 977.68 tons. This is a 12% increase for the year and the highest it's been since August 2022.While another factor aiding Gold's surge is increasing Geopolitical risk. The Russia/Ukraine situation continues to bubble as European leaders maintain a combative approach and President Putin continues to blame the West for the conflict.Comments this week from both Saudi sources and UAE sources around Israel and the occupation of Gaza City and potential annexation of the West Bank threaten further turmoil in the Middle East.“Annexation in the West Bank would constitute a red line for the UAE,” Lana Nusseibeh, Assistant Minister for Political Affairs at the UAE’s foreign ministry, said in a statement. “It would severely undermine the vision and spirit of (the Abraham) Accords, end the pursuit of regional integration, and would alter the widely-shared consensus on what the trajectory of this conflict should be – two states living side by side in peace, prosperity, and security.”These renewed risks are all adding to the current pot of risks which are brewing and keeping market participants on edge and safe haven flows strong.How far can this rally go? Well the NFP will give us an answer. A poor NFP print could increase expectations for a 50 bps cut which, no matter how unlikely, could inject further fuel to the Gold rally.A strong print will have an impact but unless it is something out of this world is unlikely to lead to a huge correction. The size and pace of the rally could see a surge in profit taking post NFP which should also be considered.Technical Analysis - Gold (XAU/USD) From a technical standpoint, it is very difficult to pick a top at the moment. Not to mention that the lack of historical price action makes it near impossible.In such cases and for Gold I tend to focus on the whole numbers (psychological) and the 25, 50, 75 areas as potential support resistance areas. What I mean is I look at 35753550 or 3525 etc.Looking ahead, the first point of interest will be the 3600 mark before the 3625 and 3650 areas catch my attention.Looking at the downside, it's a similar story.Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Dropping down to a one hour chart for any help identifying short-term support areas.There was a spike and rejection twice around the 3546 area which rests just below an area I like which is 3550.Below that we have the 3527 spot and then the 50-day MA may come into focus which rests at 3515.Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour Chart, September 3, 2025 Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - XAU/USD Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are Short on Gold with 69% of traders net-short. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that the majority of traders are net-short suggests that Gold prices could continue to rise in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Japanese Bond Yields Rise, China Service Sector Strong Most Read: Dow Jones (DJIA) Finishes 0.57% Down After Late Recovery, What Next for Wall Street Indexes?Japanese bonds joined counterparts from around the world as prices continue to dive.This is happening because many companies are selling new bonds, and at the same time, investors are getting worried that major countries have too much debt.When a bond's price falls, the return you get for owning it (its 'yield') goes up, which can hurt the stock market. This has been the current market challenge at the beginning of September. This sent Asian stocks to their lowest point in three weeks. The return on 20-year Japanese government bonds is now the highest it has been since 1999, and the 30-year bond's return is the highest it has ever been.German bond prices have also been falling for five days straight. In the US, the return on 30-year bonds is still near 5% after a recent increase that negatively affected Wall Street.In Japan, The Nikkei .N225 fell 0.88% to close at 41,938.89, while the broader Topix .TOPX lost 1.07% to 3,048.89, their lowest close since August 8.A private report on China's service businesses showed that they grew at the fastest speed in over a year in August. This happened because more people, both in China and in other countries, were buying these services.The report, called the RatingDog index which is compiled by S&P global, gave the sector a score of 53.0 last month, which was up from 52.6 in July. That's the highest score since May 2024. Any score above 50 shows that business is growing, so 53.0 is a strong signal of expansion.Wednesday's numbers also pointed to a big increase in new customers for service companies, including a rise in sales to other countries.European Open - European Stocks Eye Recovery European stocks were recovering from a big drop on Tuesday. The uptick in European shares happened as the selloff in long-term bonds seemed to calm down.The main European stock index, the STOXX 600, rose by 0.4%, with the technology sector leading the way with a 1.3% gain.Shares of Adidas climbed 2.5% after the company Jefferies upgraded its recommendation for the German sportswear brand to "buy" from "hold." Jefferies noted that Adidas has more different ways to grow its business. The pressure on stocks eased as long-term European bonds became more stable.This was a relief, as the main STOXX index had seen its biggest one-day drop in over a month on Tuesday due to worries about government finances. However, concerns are not completely gone, as the yields on long-term German and French bonds are still at multi-year highs.The FTSE 100 and DAX index were both flat in early trade and hovering near key levels of support.On the FX front, the British Pound and Japanese Yen remain under pressure due to concerns about Government finances and political uncertainty in Japan.The US dollar benefitted as the British pound and the Japanese yen both lost value. The dollar's overall strength, measured against a basket of other world currencies (DXY), had already gone up by 0.66% on Tuesday.Following this trend, the euro also dropped a small amount, adding to its losses from the previous day.Meanwhile, the Australian dollar's value stayed mostly the same, and the New Zealand dollar also saw a slight decrease trading at 0.5861 to the USD.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices dipped slightly, but they remained near their highest level in a month. The prices are high mainly because the U.S. recently put new restrictions on a network of shipping companies.Now, market participants are waiting for a meeting of major oil-producing countries (known as OPEC+) that is scheduled for this weekend. The price for Brent crude, was at $68.98 a barrel, while the U.S. oil price was at $65.46 a barrel.For a more in depth and technical look at Oil, read WTI Oil Rallies 1% and Eyes Break of Key Confluence Level. Could a Rally to $70/Barrel Finally Materialize?Gold prices continued to set new records on Wednesday. This is happening because of ongoing uncertainty in the financial markets and because many investors believe that America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, will cut interest rates this month.Earlier today, the price of gold hit a new all-time high of $3,546.99 per ounce, and was recently trading at $3,536.58. At the same time, the price for contracts to buy gold in December also rose, reaching $3,602.40.For more on the factors influencing the gold rally, read Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY WeaknessEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet moving forward after a host of final PMI data this morning.Later in the day, investors will tune into comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde for any insights on monetary policy, while U.S. job openings data for July is also expected ahead of Friday's NFP release. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX Index From a technical standpoint, the DAX Index has dropped below the 100-day MA but appears to have found support at the August 4 swing low at 23471.Immediate resistance is now provided by the 100-day MA with a break above leading to a potential retest of the 24000 handle.There remains potential for further downside and a test of the lower band of the channel pattern which is in play. There is also support at the 23212 level which could come into a play in such a scenario.DAX Daily Chart, September 3. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Client Sentiment Data - DAX Index Looking at OANDA client sentiment data and market participants are long on the DAX Index with 65% of traders net-long. I prefer to take a contrarian view toward crowd sentiment and thus the fact that so many traders are long means the DAX Index could fall in the near-term.Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The US stock market reopened on Tuesday, 2 September, with a weak start after the Labour Day holiday. All four major benchmarks tumbled between –1.3% and –1.8% in the first half of the session, pressured by fears of a global liquidity squeeze following a sharp spike in the UK’s 30-year gilt yield to 5.69%, it’s highest in 27 years, amid concerns over government budget risks. However, losses eased later in the session. The small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed, closing flat, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones pared earlier declines to finish down –0.7%, –0.8%, and –0.5%, respectively.Incoming Fed dovish pivot provides a liquidity backstop with a bull steepener Fig. 1: SPX 500 major trend with US Treasury yield curve (10-YR minus 2-YR) as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The intraday rebound in US equities was likely driven by rising expectations of a Fed dovish pivot at the upcoming FOMC meeting on 17 September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, Fed Funds futures now price in a 91% probability of a 25-bps rate cut to 4.00%–4.25%, up from 89% a week earlier.Hence, the 2-year US Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the changes in the monetary policy stances of the Fed, rose by 2 bps yesterday, which is less than the 3 bps increase seen in the 10-year US Treasury yieldStretching it out over a longer-term horizon, the 2-year US Treasury yield has fallen by 15 bps from 21 August 2025 to Tuesday, 2 September 2025, a higher magnitude in comparison to the 10-year US Treasury yield, which only dropped by 7 bps.This observation seen on the US Treasury yield curve (10-year minus 2-year) is called a bull steepener, where short-term interest rates fall faster than long-term rates, widening the spread between them.It tends to be bullish for the US stock market at least in the medium-term, as the liquidity infusion from the Fed can be used to negate the adverse effects of the US White House trade tariffs policies (see Fig. 1).Let’s now take a deep dive into the short-term directional bias and key levels to watch on the US SPX CFD Index (a proxy of the S&P 500 E-mini futures) from a technical analysis perspective. Fig. 2: US SPX 500 CFD Index minor trend as of 3 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Yesterday’s sell-off has been overdone. The medium-term uptrend phase of the US SPX 500 remains intact. Bullish bias for a short-term recovery in the first step, watch the 6,370/6,350 key medium-term pivotal support (see Fig. 2).A clearance above 6,450 intermediate resistance increases the odds of the recovery process for the next intermediate resistances to come in at 6,490 and 6,517 (close to the current all-time high level of 6,513 and a Fibonacci extension cluster).Key elements Yesterday’s sell-off seen in the US SPX CFD Index has managed to stall at the lower boundary of a medium-term ascending channel in place since the 23 May 2025 low.The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the US SPX CFD Index has flashed a bullish divergence condition at its oversold condition and staged a bullish breakout from a parallel descending resistance.The higher beta equal-weighted S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector ETF has continued to outperform the defensive-oriented equal-weighted S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector ETF (see Fig. 2). This observation supports a bullish reversal scenario in the US SPX 500 CFD Index.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) Failure to hold at the 6,370/350 key medium-term support on the US SPX 500 CFD Index jeopardises its medium-term uptrend phase to expose the next intermediate supports at 6,320 and 6,290 in the first step. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for September 2North American markets reopened today after the US and Canadian Labor Day holidays, which saw global Markets trade in super thin volumes.Action did pick-up with the latest run on UK Gilts (UK Gov. Bonds), which have prompted another wave of selling in global long-term yields.After Spain and France in the past two weeks, it is now the Gilts that have seen their yields rise sharply, dragging upwards the Japanese 20 and 30Y Yields to their highest since 1999.I strongly invite you to check out our latest piece to know more on why government yields are rising so much despite rumours of Interest rate cuts: Read More: Why are government bond yields rising so much as of late? This rise in yields, combined with the contracting US Manufacturing PMI release didn't help Equities that finish down on the session (they still rebounded from their lows towards the afternoon).However, metals have loved this move, with Silver breaching the $40 level for the first time since 2011, on the road to its all-time highs, and Gold freshly breaking $3,600.Cryptos are also appreciating from the downbeat looks on fiat currencies, with the ongoing run on government bonds – This is a story to watch closely in the upcoming period.One thing to consider for this week, is the start of September creates strong and unusual flows as traders place their positions for the final four months of the year.Furthermore, markets will stay thin in the waiting of Friday's infinitely-highly expected Non-Farm Payrolls, leading to bigger movements.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, September 2, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold is up 3.60% since Friday! And volatility finally makes its way back in markets – Spot how many times flows changed in the past 24 hours!Spot the shiftsmarket open around 18:00 yesterday, overnight, ISM Manufacturing and this afternoon!A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, September 2 – Source: OANDA Labs Volatility is back strong in FX, and the US Dollar stays on top.Discover its levels and fundamentals on our latest DXY (Dollar Index) piece.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Despite some expectations that volatility decreases tomorrow as markets should calm ahead of the upcoming NFP, still expect volatile movements – Look at news on government bonds and look at Gold which will track these ongoing flows closely.Don't forget the Eurozone PPI data overnight, US JOLTS (job openings) at 10:00 A.M., and the few central bank speakers tomorrow (Musalem and Kashkari for the FED, Breeden, Mann for the BOE and ECB President Lagarde Speaking at 3:30)And AUD traders should also stay awake for the Australian PMI and GDP data tonight at 19:00 and 21:30Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

(Too long; didn't read resume at the end of the article. I strongly invite you to at least check the charts, which are worth 1,000 words.)Since 2020, the bond market, traditionally seen as the safest and most liquid market, has experienced unprecedented dynamics (at least compared to recent times).Many factors are responsible: Quantitative Easing from the post-Great Financial Crisis and COVID period, the consequent tightening from central banks, and global governments' spending addiction.From 2008 to 2021, low inflation and a somewhat sluggish economy required easy monetary conditions to stimulate job creation and every other positive aspect that a more efficient labor force creates (including the quintessential credit creation).Inflation is closely tied to government bond yields; with slowing inflation, longer-run government bond yields have been held between 0% (or even negative) to 2% throughout most economies in that same period.This phenomenon allowed governments to subsidize companies and programs to boost the economy, using what is vulgarly called "cheap money creation".One could debate that it now has broadly negative consequences, but without it, the COVID era would have led to a decade-long recovery process and a much more considerable economic crisis.However, as the economy quickly recovered from the COVID crisis, inflation rose sharply (close to 10% year-over-year) in the US, Canada, Europe, and throughout the globe.This caused bond yields to shoot higher, leading to higher inflation expectations and forcing central banks to hike interest rates aggressively from 2022 to 2023. Read More:GBP/USD Technical: Sterling torpedoed by spike in 30-year gilt yieldCrypto market update – Cryptocurrencies still lack clear direction – BTC, SOL, XRP and SOL levels In an ideal world, government spending would slow as fast as economic recovery would be completed.However, a too-indebted global economy has become addicted to borrowing, and governments are having a tough time slowing down their hunger for debt. (But are they really trying?)That forces high-spending governments to spend even more to finance their increasing debts—for comparison, as an individual, it's as if one would take a second mortgage to help repay a first, too large mortgage at higher rates (not a good deal).If you're watching the headlines, you will notice that President Trump is complaining almost daily about the higher interest costs from the US government and tries to force the Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower rates, for the US to reduce their interest costs – but doing so would greatly raise longer-run inflation expectationsWith decreasing inflation, government yields should traditionally be heading down—but after 20 years of extremely low yields, this correlation is inverting.With a sufficient explanation of the situation, let's watch a few charts that paint the current picture.1. US Government debt since 1960 US Public Debt – Source: St Louis FED and TradingView US inflation and global money creation (M2) since 2008 The Rise of M2 and how it made inflation shoot up – Source: TradingView To understand M2, check out this vulgarization article.Essentially, money creation makes M2 rise, which props up inflation (more money for the same goods = price of goods rises)When governments spend, they print (or create) money which creates inflation.Long-run bond yields (30Y) from 2020 to 2025 (US, Europe, Japan and UK) and long-run inflation expectations 30Y Yields for US, UK and Europe with US inflation expectations below – Source: TradingView So what about the current situation: The FED should cut rates and 30Y Yields are shooting higher, but why? So why is inflation heading lower but government bond yields are rising ?The reason is simple, short term interest rates move on central banks's main rate expectations, and this is closely linked to immediate inflation (like headline CPI for example).However, 10Y yields and onwards (which are the base of all consumer-mortgages) are more influenced by future (long-run) inflation expectations, future costs of government debt and credit creation (heavier credit = higher yields). These go up from looser fiscal policies (like the Big, Beautiful Bill from the Trump Administration or the current mess-ups in the United Kingdom) and a decreasing investor confidence. A higher risk demands higher compensation.These three components are rising sharply, hence, government bond yields are shooting higher, with the latest case in the UK pushing higher yields in the US and even in Japan where the 30 year yield just reached multi-decade highs.Also, tariffs increase inflation, which pushes yields higher.Independent central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve which manages the flow of the US Dollar, the global reserve currency) are more than essential to preserve the value of money, which helps to reduce inflation further and maintains the value of everyone's precious fiat money. Governments slowing down their spendings would be of much help.(All of these dynamics contribute sharply to diversification towards metals, cryptocurrencies, and other asset classes)(TL;DR) – Too long, didn't read Since 2020, the bond market — usually the safest and most liquid — has seen historic volatility – Bonds selling = higher yields.Years of QE (post-GFC, COVID) + government spending created “cheap money” conditions that fueled growth but stored up risks – higher risks = higher yields.From 2008–2021, inflation stayed low, keeping long-term yields near 0–2% across developed economies – past two decades of low yields = cheap money = spending addiction from governments.Post-COVID, inflation spiked near 10% globally, forcing central banks into aggressive 2022–2023 hikes = government costs rise sharply – Normally, governments stop spending from here, but they're not.Normally, falling inflation = lower yields, but this link is breaking down – High spending in decent economies = high inflation expectations.Short-term yields follow central bank policy expectations, but long-term yields reflect future inflation, fiscal debt, and credit demand.If main rates (like the FOMC 4.50% rate that should go down in the upcoming FED Meeting) go down while economy is good, future inflation exp, hence bond yields shoot up.Looser fiscal policy, tariffs, and weak investor confidence are also driving long-term yields higher.Governments are stuck in a debt spiral: borrowing more at higher costs to cover past debts.Political pressure (e.g., Trump vs. Powell) risks undermining central bank independence — crucial for preserving the value of money and keeping inflation anchored.This structural shift in bonds is fueling diversification flows into metals, crypto, and other alternatives.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The sterling slumped against the US dollar, losing as much as 1.2% intraday and erasing all gains from Fed Chair Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech on 22 August 2025. Based on a one-day rolling performance basis as of Tuesday, 2 September, the sterling is the weakest major currency against the greenback, where the USD/GBP gained by 1.1% at the time of writing (see Fig. 1). Fig. 1: 1-day rolling performances of the US dollar against major currencies as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) 30-year gilt yield spiked to a 27-year high Fig. 2: 30-YR Gilt yield long-term secular trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) The longer-term UK sovereign bond yield extended its gains further today, where the 30-year gilt yield jumped by 6 basis points to hit 5.69%, its highest level since March 1998.The recent spike in the 30-year gilt yield is over concerns of a widening UK budget deficit due to UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ decision to increase borrowing in last year’s budget, in turn increasing the “risk premium” on longer-term gilts because of uncertainty over its rising debts.Today’s current environment in the UK gilt market draws a parallel to the 2022 gilt crisis triggered by former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss’s “mini” budget that focused on a loose fiscal policy that triggered significant spikes in the 30-year gilt bond yield and a sell-off in sterling. Fig. 3: GBP/USD minor trend as of 2 Sep 2025 (Source: TradingView) Preferred trend bias (1-3 days) Bearish bias on the GBP/USD with key short-term pivotal resistance at 1.3460 to expose the next supports at 1.3370 and 1.3315/1.3280 (medium-term pivot) (see Fig. 3).Key elements Price actions of the GBP/USD have traded below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.The 4-hour RSI oscillator has not reversed up from its oversold region (below 30), which suggests that short-term bearish momentum is likely to persist at this juncture.The 1.3315/1.3280 medium-term pivotal support zone is defined by the medium-term ascending trendline from the 13 January 2025 low, the former minor congestion area from 4 August 2025 to 6 August 2025, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor rally from the 1 August 2025 low to 14 August 2025 high.Alternative trend bias (1 to 3 days) A clearance above 1.3460 key resistance on the GBP/USD negates the bearish tone to retest the minor range resistance of 1.3545. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong and podcast host Jonny Hart as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The Canadian dollar is coming off its first winning week since July. USD/CAD is calm on Monday, trading at 1.3739, down 0.04% on the day.Canada's GDP for June was a disappointment, declining 0.1% m/m in June. This was unchanged from May and missed the market estimate of 0.1%. The decline was driven by decreased activity in manufacturing, as US tariffs made themselves felt in the Canadian economy. Quarterly, GDP fell by 1.6% in Q2, after a downwardly revised gain of 2% in Q1. This missed the market estimate of -0.6%. Notably, this was the first quarterly contraction in seven quarters, as US tariffs took a toll on Canadian exports.The weak GDP release has raised expectations of a Bank of Canada rate cut at the September 17 meeting. The money markets have raised the likelihood of a quarter-point cut to 48%, up from 40% just prior to the GDP report. The BoC has maintained rates at 2.75% at three consecutive meetings and the employment and inflation data for August will be critical in determining whether the central bank holds or cuts rates.US PCE core inflation hits five-month highThe US core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, crept higher to 2.9% in July, up from 2.8% in June. This was the highest level since February and matched the market estimate. Monthly, core PCE rose 0.3%, unchanged from June and in line with the market estimate.USD/CAD Technical USD/CAD is testing resistance at 1.3742. Above, there is resistance at 1.3751 and 1.3761Below, there is support at 1.3732 and 1.3723 USDCAD 4-Hour Chart, September 1, 2025 Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - Alibaba on a Roll as Nikkei Slips Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY WeaknessStock markets in Asia generally went down after technology stocks fell in the US on Friday. Companies that make computer chips were hit the hardest, causing Japan's stock market to drop.Hong Kong's market, however, did the opposite and went up. This was because the stock price for the company Alibaba jumped dramatically, which also helped boost the value of other artificial intelligence companies like Baidu and Tencent.The drop for other major chipmakers, such as Samsung and SK Hynix, happened after the United States stopped allowing the sale of certain chip-making equipment to China. Japan's main stock market index, the Nikkei, fell to its lowest level in three weeks.Most of the decline was caused by sharp drops in two very large companies. The stock price for Advantest, a company that makes equipment for testing computer chips, fell significantly. At the same time, SoftBank Group, a major investor in technology and AI companies, also saw its stock price go down.Several other companies related to computer chips also saw their stock prices fall. This included Disco, which dropped 7.7%, Socionext, which was down 6.3%, and Furukawa Electric, which fell 5.5%.Together with Advantest and SoftBank Group, these five companies were the worst-performing stocks on the Nikkei for the day.A different, broader measure of Japanese stocks, the Topix, fell by a much smaller amount.China Factory Activity Steady as Asian Countries Feel the Bite New reports released on Monday show that U.S. tariffs are hurting factory production throughout Asia. This bad news overshadowed some surprisingly good results from China, putting pressure on governments in the region to find ways to help their weak economies.Experts are concerned because many Asian companies had previously rushed to ship their goods early to avoid the U.S. taxes. Now that those shipments are done, analysts believe these companies will struggle to make a profit in the future because their sales to other countries are expected to drop.For example, countries that export a lot of goods, like Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, all saw their factory activity decrease in August. This highlights the major challenge Asian countries face in dealing with the impact of the U.S. tariffs.In Japan, factory activity shrank for the second straight month. While the situation improved slightly from July, the score was still below the 50-mark, meaning production is still contracting. A key problem for Japan is that orders for its goods from other countries fell at the fastest rate in over a year, mainly because of weak demand from China, Europe, and the U.S.South Korea's factories also continued to shrink, marking the seventh month in a row of contraction. Similar to Japan, there was a very slight improvement from the previous month, but overall activity is still declining.European Open - European Stocks Benefit from US Holiday Stock markets in the UK and Europe started the day on a positive note. This comes after news that house prices in the UK are not rising very quickly.The FTSE and the DAX are both higher this morning. The FTSE 100 went up by 0.3% with the DAX 0.5% higher.The STOXX 600 is up 0.4% thanks in large part to aerospace and defence stocks with names like the UK’s BAE Systems leading the way with gains of around 2.4%.The biggest winner in the UK is a software developer called Kainos Group, whose stock jumped over 17% after it predicted strong future sales. Domino's Pizza is also having a good day, with its stock up almost 7% after the company confirmed its financial goals and announced a plan to buy back its own shares.Elsewhere, the Danish drug maker Novo Nordisk is up about 3% after sharing positive news that its weight-loss drug, Wegovy, is significantly more effective at reducing heart risks compared to a rival's treatment.On the FX front, the US dollar is a bit weaker today, dropping to its lowest value in over a month. This continues its recent downward trend, as the dollar lost more than 2% of its value during August.As the dollar has fallen, other major currencies like the Euro and the British Pound have become stronger. Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar is mostly unchanged this morning, but it also weakened against the Yen last month by 2.5%.Meanwhile, China's currency, the yuan, is holding steady at a very strong level, near its highest point against the dollar in about ten months.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Gold prices soared overnight as geopolitical risks piled up as the Financial Times reported overnight about the possibility of European troops in Ukraine with US backing.This coupled with renewed tensions around Iran's nuclear programme and the weakening US Dollar amid rate cut expectations has pushed the precious metal to within touching distance of the all-time highs at $3500/oz.For more on Gold please read my full report Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY WeaknessOil prices are a bit mixed this morning as different factors pull them in opposite directions. On one hand, things that could reduce supply, like the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, are pushing prices up. A weaker US dollar also helps lift prices.On the other hand, worries that too much oil is being produced globally, along with concerns that U.S. tariffs could hurt the economy and lower the demand for oil, are trying to pull prices down.As a result, Brent crude (the international price) is up slightly to around $67.79 a barrel, while WTI (the U.S. price) is down a little to $64.33. This comes after a weak August, when oil prices fell for the first time in four months because major oil-producing countries increased their supply.Economic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will be quiet moving forward after PMI data was released this morning.Spanish, French, Italian and Euro Area PMI all beat estimates but Germany did come in below expectations.Moving forward, sentiment will be key and likely hinge on any news on the geopolitical front ahead of US jobs data this week. Remember it is aUS labor day holiday today and tis could lead to thin trading and low liquidity as the day progresses. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - DAX From a technical standpoint, the DAX is back at the 24000 handle as it eyes a bounce.However, there are growing challenges as sentiment remains rather fragile.Immediate resistance at rests at 24119 before the 24190 and 24350 will be key.Immediate support rests at 23670 and 23440.DAX Daily Chart, September 1. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 29Today's session brought some extra volatility to complement a fairly dull trading week – Forex Markets had no idea of where to go, with all major pairs rangebound since the weekly open.Some month-end flows brought Silver and Gold to their highs, and since the end of the London session, Equities have sold off.Month-end profit-taking is nothing to be afraid off particularly amid ever-growing stock indices, but after a few months of (relative) calm in geopolitics, it seems that tensions are on the rise again.European powerhouses (France, Germany and the UK) are mad at Iran for not respecting atomic deals (anyone surprised?), Russia and Ukraine get further from a truce, and after reaching deals at the beginning of the month, as the deadlines were coming to their end, some countries like Japan want to review their tariff deals.September is a traditionally volatile month, but with the current state of things, it seems that this one should be a rollercoaster.Looking back at August, cryptocurrencies performed very well, the US Dollar rejected its highs (particularly after the month-beginning NFP report), energy commodities took a hit, metals saw big up-swings towards the end of the month, and equities, despite going higher, slowed their pace quite a bit.Some record highs for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were still reached and the "Sell in May and go away" adage is still not performing! Read More:Markets Weekly Outlook – US Non-Farm Payrolls, US ISM Services PMIs and Eurozone InflationRisk appetite takes a hit as Markets prepare for month-end, Silver breaks yearly highsCross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold and Silver are back on top of charts, with the post-Powell moves gaining traction.Also, keep an eye on cryptocurrencies falling off their highs as they tend to lead market sentiment.It will be key to see if the beginning of next month corroborates with this theme, but the general idea could be that Market players are putting back the currency debasing trade on top after rangebound trading in the commodities since the end of June.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 29 – Source: OANDA Labs The story of the week repeats – FX forex is subdued and charts show rangebound price action.Month-end flows have hurted both the GBP and the US Dollar, and with metals going up similarly, I wonder if some participants are putting back stagflation trades on – Keep an eye on this for the upcoming month.A look at Economic data releasing in Monday's session For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Markets will be seeing a few pieces of key data for China and Europe throughout the week-end and the beginning of next week.Keep an eye on data from the Middle Kingdom for Antipodean currencies, while Euro traders will want to watch out for ECB speakers and German PMIs on Monday.Of course, keep an eye on French government turmoil... (we can't stop making headlines, sorry about that)Safe Trades and a pleasant week-end! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

The week had been surprisingly calm, with equities calmly marching higher, FX Markets not knowing where to go and generally low volatility.Despite of the lack of volatility, traders were not missing headlines: Between the firing of FED's Lisa Cook which pursues the corruption of the Federal Reserve's independence (A lawsuit is currently ongoing), some geopolitical distress with Russia and renewed diplomatic tension with Iran.I strongly invite you to check this piece on Gold running higher from the headwinds – The precious metal is currently breaking higher and stands less than $50 to its all-time highs. Read More: Gold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY Weakness You can also access one of my weekly pieces on Silver that covers the run on the FED's independance and its influence on precious metals right here.The metal actually just broke yearly highs – check out the chart just below. Gold is attaining an intra-day top, but these flows have already degraded Market sentiment quite a bit, with Nasdaq down 1.24% as I speak and other US Indices following through (On a slower descent however).Let's take a look at the current state of Markets and look at a few key charts to spot what are the ongoing risk-off flows towards the monthly close.Markets also have reasons to reduce risk, awaiting for next week's Non-Farm Payrolls release. It seems that the move has some traction, but if it really just was about Iran or Russia tensions, Oil would have headed higher – In any case, let's see what's moving.Get ready for next week with our week ahead piece: Read More: Markets Weekly Outlook – US Non-Farm Payrolls, US ISM Services PMIs and Eurozone InflationTaking a look at the current market picture An overview on the current market, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView It would be wrong to say that the current flows are typically risk-off, however, something seems to be playing out.It could be month-end flows exaggerating profit-taking on a few risk-assets, but the most volatile ones like Bitcoin and Nasdaq really are not enjoying this intraday trend.It seems that the first legs of the ongoing move are over, and they have started a bit after the Core PCE release.Keeping an eye on Gold could point to some interesting dynamics.Watch for the weekly close, Equities pursuing their move lower could trigger some supplemental volatility.After all, with the pre-NFP profit taking, it would be normal to see some angst in Markets.Silver breaks yearly highs Silver 8H Chart, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView Silver has marked daily highs at 39.97, with the daily spike being decently strong and may have caught some participants off-guard.A continuation on Monday could lead to a test of the 2011 highs:Key levels for Silver:Daily and yearly highs 39.97All-time highs 49.87 – April 2011Weekly lows and support zone between $35 to $36.36Keep an eye on the month-end flows which typically accelerate between 15:00 to 16:00.Safe Trades and a pleasant weekend! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

We are concluding a fairly muted trading week, with participants usually taking the final trading week of August to reload their batteries before entering the volatile final four months of the year.As a matter of fact, the session close will be essential to watch as month end flows tend to move markets quite largely.Indecisive trading, Ukraine-Russia talks take a step back Markets decided to consolidate on relative low-volume trading.Action in Forex markets was almost nonexistent, with low-volatility and volumes ranges, while equities went higher step by step.The S&P 500 still reached some new all-time highs and the Dow Jones is holding above its previous record (Is a double top into work for the index? This could have big technical implications) – It isn't shocking to get timid action ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls, particularly with the current state of things in Markets.Jerome Powell is changing his tone, the Federal Reserve's independence is getting challenged harshly, and diplomatic advances are failing: The German Chancellor Merz announced that Zelenskyy-Putin talks won't take place anytime soon.With the past month's weak NFP report and a contradicting July PPI putting back tariff fears on the table, the path ahead is unclear yet again.Weekly performance from different asset classes Weekly Asset Performance, August 29, 2025 – Source: TradingView Cryptocurrencies have seen quite a selloff this week, but this comes after a decent past week.Nothing is too shocking here as volatility decreases and key data is expected next week.However, some relatively weak highs have been formed, as can be seen in our past week's analysis of the Cryptocurrency Market.Indeed, Bitcoin has formed a double top and is failing to provide much to counter its effect, while Ethereum peaked at a new all-time high on Saturday before correcting further.Ether has better prospects than its older brother, but its performance will still be contingent on BTC's performance.For the rest, Nasdaq and other stock indices weren’t performing much, but Nvidia earnings brought positive sentiment back.The winners of this week are commodities, with Oil and Gold standing on top (Silver also had quite a strong performance). It seems that Powell's pivot, although not having a big influence on other Markets, helped metals get back on their 2025 bull train.We should get a better idea if that is to continue after next week. Always keep an eye on the US Dollar to gauge the state of other markets (a strong USD usually leads to lower demand for Metals). Read More:US Oil (WTI) breaks $65, Russia–Ukraine talks regressEURUSD rangebound in the waiting for further news – breakout levelsGold (XAU/USD) Eyes Weekly Close Above $3400/oz on Renewed Haven Demand and DXY WeaknessThe Week Ahead – US Non-Farm Employment in focus (with some other key data points) The beginning of next week should see volumes slightly getting back due to beginning of the month and quarter positioning.However, the entire trading planet is awaiting for Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls report, therefore trading won't be as clear before that date.Asia Pacific Markets - Growth data for Australia with Governor Bullock and PMIs for China China and Australia will be in focus for APAC trading next week:China opens the week with Caixin Manufacturing PMI on Sunday evening, a key gauge of factory activity that often sets the tone for Asia (and has high influence on AUD and NZD performance)The Services PMI on Tuesday evening will complement the picture, amid a still slowing Chinese economy (most of the recent growth has been generated from government stimuli).Australia’s week is also packed with data – Manufacturing PMIs and Q2 GDP land on Tuesday, giving insight into growth momentum.Later, Thursday’s Trade Balance figures and comments from the Royal Bank of Australia Governor Bullock will add spice, with markets parsing every word for future policy hints – The RBA has just about one extra cut priced in for the year.Japan and New Zealand won't see much in terms of key data.The Bank of Japan is the next APAC central bank to release their rate decision, with a pause mostly expected, but either way, the decision will not come before the middle of the month (September 18th).The BoJ is trying to push back their hike (13% chance of a hike priced in for the year) and would, like US President Trump, love for the FED to cut to reduce the high interest rate differentials.In terms of Asian Equity markets, the Nikkei and Hang Sang are both consolidating around their yearly highs in search of further momentum, while the Singapore STI, which reached a new record of 4,272 on Wednesday 13th has started to decline the past two days – is it profit-taking again or is Asian economic activity starting to get dragged by the Trump tariffs?US, Europe and UK Markets - US NFP and Services PMIs, Eurozone Inflation and Canadian Employment The week kicks off slowly for Markets, but really starts to pick up on Tuesday with Eurozone inflation data.Core CPI is expected to stay soft at 2% YoY, while monthly numbers remain flat – with European inflation hanging around 2%, the European Central Bank should hold still for a while now.A very small 10 bps cut premium is priced in for the rest of the year, but except for a sudden fundamental change, the ECB Main policy rate should stay between 2% to 2.15%.In the UK, attention turns to Friday with Retail Sales (expected +0.4% MoM), a release that could give the Pound some direction after a quiet stretch. A weak number would reinforce the idea that consumer demand remains fragile, while a beat may push back some dovish expectations from the Bank of England.For North America and actually for all markets, the spotlight is firmly on the US labor market.Thursday’s ADP Employment Change will provide a first look, before Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report sets the tone. Markets expect around 78k jobs added – downward revised expectations after the prior month surprise revisions.The US unemployment rate is still only at 4.2%!Alongside payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings will be crucial to gauge wage pressures.Less influential but released at the same time, Canadian employment data (including unemployment, currently at 6.9%) could bring extra volatility to USDCAD.Don't forget the Canadian Trade Balance data, releasing on Thursday at 8:30 A.M.Finally, don’t overlook PMI releases across the board – ISM Manufacturing on Tuesday, ISM Services on Thursday– all of which will feed into the global growth narrative. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (High-tier data only) Safe Trades and enjoy your weekend! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

⦁ GBP outlook has turned bearish: Sticky inflation, slowing growth, and tight fiscal prospects tilt risks to the downside despite earlier stability versus G10.⦁ BoE likely to cut once more, then pause: After a split August 25 bp cut, a single 25 bp cut in November is plausible, with futures sceptical about further easing.⦁ Inflation is persistent and services-led: Core ~3.8% y/y; services ~5% y/y; broad pricing pressure and elevated expectations keep disinflation progress limited.Recent performance and policy signals For most of 2025 sterling was broadly stable against the G10 basket despite a marked weakening of the US dollar and a modest strengthening of the euro. The latest data and turbulence in monetary policy suggest the balance of risks for GBP has tilted to the downside, so earlier, more optimistic views on the currency may now lack sufficient support.After an unexpectedly strong first quarter supported by above average exports to the United States, April and May weakened, which was offset by a strong June, leaving second quarter growth at 0.3 per cent quarter on quarter. In June the Bank of England signalled a more dovish stance, briefly lifting expectations for rate cuts. Higher inflation then cooled those assumptions.In early August a 25 bp cut passed only on a second vote. In the first vote four members favoured no change, four supported a 25 bp cut and one argued for a 50 bp reduction. The economic picture is also harder to interpret because of quality issues in ONS data.Inflation remains persistently high Core inflation remains stubborn. For nearly two years its seasonally adjusted month on month pace has hovered around 0.28 per cent, clearly above target. After a brief episode of goods disinflation, goods prices have accelerated again, while services inflation has eased slightly.Headline CPI and core CPI have been rising year on year for several months, with core at about 3.8 per cent year on year. Services inflation is around 5 per cent year on year and has oscillated near that level since last autumn. Overall, price pressure has not abated. The ONS has not published PPI since January. Import costs are likely falling, as suggested by declining container freight rates.The Bank of England has comparatively few concerns about industrial goods excluding energy, where price growth is only moderate. Services generate the larger problem, with wages running above trend. Pricing pressure is broad based across many categories and both firms and households report elevated price expectations.For now companies can accept lower margins to avoid choking demand, but that may change, with more costs passed through to customers, which would lift inflation over a longer horizon. UK CPI and core CPI inflation, y/y, source: Bloomberg Growth is unbalanced and increasingly reliant on services The United Kingdom’s growth dynamics are not encouraging. Since the fourth quarter of 2022 almost all gains in GDP have come from the public sector. Without government spending the economy would have been in stagnation for more than two years.In 2024 goods exports fell back to their 2019 level. Combined with a weak industrial sector this points to a growing dependence on services. If services were to weaken as well, the outlook would deteriorate quickly. Real wages are rising, but this is not feeding through to consumption because households are increasing savings. UK GDP growth, q/q., source: Bloomberg Labour market momentum is cooling The labour market has been losing momentum for more than a year. The downtrend began well before the change of government and is consistent with the lagged impact of restrictive Bank of England policy. The vacancy to unemployment ratio, which is central to the Bank’s framework, has fallen below its 2019 average.Public finances are tight and October could be pivotal The public finances are stretched. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves faces a difficult balancing act. On the one hand she aims to show that current commitments will be funded from taxation. On the other she has pledged not to raise taxes. Changes due in October that increase employer contributions could bring additional revenue to the Exchequer, but they may also push up labour costs.Meanwhile spending needs, for example on defence, are rising. The October Budget is likely to be pivotal and could generate higher volatility in GBP.Policy outlook points to one cut and then wait and see The Bank of England faces a classic dilemma. It must continue to tackle persistent inflation while also supporting a slowing economy. A single cut of 25 bp in November looks plausible, followed by a shift to a wait and see stance.Futures pricing remains sceptical about further easing this year according to Overnight Index Swaps. The situation could change if forthcoming data disappoint, which would likely exert downward pressure on sterling. UK Bank of England Official Bank Rate Near term upside risks versus medium term headwinds In the near term positive data surprises are possible given low expectations and the likelihood that recent prints understated the underlying trend. Over the medium and longer term structural growth constraints, a cooler labour market and tight fiscal conditions may dominate. Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Log in to today's North American session Market wrap for August 28Markets were impatient for news regarding any progress in Ukraine-Russia talks, amid a fairly dull geopolitical week – and unfortunately, the German Chancellor Merz just announced that Zelenskyy-Putin talks will not take place, at least for now.Oil rallied after these news but the spike saw some rejection after reaching a key technical pivot zone.We have yet to see much diplomatic progress this week. Read More: US Oil (WTI) breaks $65, Russia–Ukraine talks regress It also seems that Japan isn't too fond of the current state of things regarding US tariffs, with the Japanese trade negotiator Nakazawa planning to come back to the United States to resume talks.Apart from that, Nvidia who reported earnings after-close yesterday saw some decent selling in today's session – Some political backdrops are to be monitored with the China and US AI Cold War still ongoing.Cross-Assets Daily Performance Cross-Asset Daily Performance, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Gold and Nasdaq saw their best weekly performance today.Strong Nvidia earnings and even better Magnificient 7 performance lifted the tech-focused index.I invite you to check out our most recent Silver and metals analysis to spot why the ongoing demand is strong – Gold's rise was surely supplemented by the lack of progress in Eastern Europe's diplomatic talks.A picture of today's performance for major currencies Currency Performance, August 28 – Source: OANDA Labs The US Dollar saw some decent selling flows despite beating its Quarterly GDP release, which allowed the NZD to lead another low volume and volatility FX session.A look at Economic data releasing in tonight and tomorrow's sessions For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. Today's session is not exactly over for JPY traders – Monthly Tokyo inflation data is expected to get released at 19:50 in the evening session. This piece of inflation data tends to be more influential than other japanese inflation releases.The week will conclude with Retail Sales for Germany at 2:00 A.M followed by their CPI at 8:00 A.M.The North American Session will also welcome Canadian GDP data and Core PCE at the same time (8:30 A.M.)Later in the morning, Chicago PMI will get released at 9:45 and then, U-of-Mich Surveys with important inflation expectation readings.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Oil is starting to push higher in a strong move as we speak.After a seven-day consolidation between $63 and $64, prospects for better war outlooks and lower supply helped Oil prices rise from their lows.A few days of rise tested the lower bound of the previous month's range ($65 to $70.5) as Markets sought more information on the Ukraine-Russia conflict.Despite the previous weeks of geopolitical meetings between the US, Ukrainian, Russian, and EU Presidents, talks have been in limbo, and the lack of progress, combined with repeated assaults by Russia on Kiev, is not helping the situation.The German Chancellor Merz just announced that there would be no Zelenskyy-Putin talks, not a big surprise when looking at the lack of headlines going towards that direction.That comes despite US's Kellogg trying to make things sound better than they really are.Discover technical levels for WTI trading as price are shooting higher.US Oil Daily Chart US Oil Daily Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The most recent lows in the commodity allowed the formation of an intermediate downward channel, with prices starting to shoot since the last technical rebound.Some accumulation had led to a breakout which stopped at $65.77 highs on Monday, but the fundamentals not progressing have led to the ongoing rally.Sanctions on India have been re-iterated by US President Trump and it seems that economically pressuring Russia into a ceasefire will be one of the only ways to reach some type of truce. The President was saying nice words too early, with the mess-around talks of Putin coming to watch football at the World Cup.As I am writing this, Bulls are pushing within the $65 Zone.US Oil 4H Chart US Oil 4H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView Bullish momentum is building in the ongoing bullish candle – the latest headlines seem to attract buyers.Look at a break above the 200-period 4H MA, a break above should attract even more buying.Level to place on your WTI Charts:Resistance Levels$65 Pivot Zone (getting tested right now)Monday highs and 200 4H-MA 65.70$66 to $67 Mid-range levelhigh range resistance $67.30 to $68 – Confluence with 50 and 200 Day MAsSupport Levels$62.00 to $62.50 consolidation supportWednesday lows $62.19 (current double bottom)$60.5 Low of May Range$55 to $57 2025 lows Main supportUS Oil 1H Chart US Oil 1H Chart, August 28, 2025 – Source: TradingView The current move is strong, watch for potential continuation if the move keeps on going.It seems that some decent short-selling has been accumulated in the past weeks, and a short-squeeze could come into play – keep an eye on the 4H 200-period MA mentioned above.Safe Trades! Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Starting with a UK national holiday, coupled with a noticeably sparse UK economic calendar, the current trading week has been somewhat uneventful for cable traders.Having only recently secured its best six-monthly performance since 2020, riding a wave of dollar downside, GBP/USD currently floats above the key level of 1.35000 and looks for daily support.GBP/USD: Key takeaways from today’s session Happening some hours ago, a better-than-expected US GDP result introduced some immediate GBP/USD selling pressure as the dollar strengthenedOtherwise, and following recent revelations surrounding the Bank of England and Federal Reserve monetary policy, cable downside remains somewhat limitedGBP/USD: Shifting Bank of England narrative offers cable support In a few words, markets are currently readjusting expectations of further GBP rate cuts, with the latest reduction to 4% signifying the fifth rate cut made by the BoE in 2025.This change in narrative is at least in part thanks to a series of hawkish economic data points, most significantly a major outperformance in services PMI and hotter-than-expected inflation as part of data released last week.Read more on UK PMIs: UK Services PMI improves, pound continues losing streakThis, especially regarding the latter, might offer the Bank of England an opportunity to pause, or even end easing efforts, should they deem appropriate in their upcoming September decision.While the recent vote ultimately concluded with a rate reduction, the room was noticeably split, again adding to the rationale that the Bank of England is becoming increasingly hawkish, having already cut several times in 2025.At least one outcome of the above is immediate support for GBP/USD, which goes double when markets overwhelmingly predict a 25 basis point cut will be the Federal Reserve’s next move on September 17th.GBP/USD: UK-US yield spread case-in-point for monetary policy expectation While expectations that the Bank of England is changing its stance on monetary policy remain ever-intangible in the market aether, comparing the current direction of UK-US yield spreads offers more concrete evidence of a shifting narrative. US 2-Year bond yield (US02Y), TVC, TradingView, 28/08/2025 Best explained by recent price action in 2Y treasuries, Monday saw UK 2Y sovereign bond yields meet their highest level since April, while its US counterpart has fallen to 3-month lows.GBP/USD: US PCE inflation to offer finale to week 35 While this week’s trading has been nothing to write home about regarding UK economic events, the same cannot be said for the United States, set to end the week with the infamous PCE inflation report.Revered as the Fed’s ‘preferred’ measure of inflation, the Federal Reserve will hope to see inflation at, or lower than, consensus, especially considering expectations of a 25 bps in the upcoming decision. Core PCE Expenditures Index (MoM), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCCore PCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCPCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYCPCE Expenditures Index (YoY), Friday 28th September 2025, 08:30 NYC GBP/USD, OANDA, TradingView, 28/08/2025 Read the latest coverage from MarketPulse: US Oil (WTI) breaks $65, Russia–Ukraine talks regress Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Asia Market Wrap - China Chipmakers Rally Most Read: Nvidia releases earnings and getting ready for the monthly US GDP release – Market wrap for the North American session - August 27Stock prices in Asia were unstable on Thursday due to worries about the future business of the major AI company, Nvidia, in China.These concerns hurt the Asian companies that supply parts to Nvidia, causing their stock prices to fall. At the same time, the situation was very good for Nvidia's competitors in China, whose stock prices jumped significantly. This mix of positive and negative news created a lot of uncertainty, leading the overall Asian market to finish the day slightly lower. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS swung between gains and losses, and was last down 0.4%. The Nikkei 225 was last up 0.7%.It was a great day for Nvidia's competitors in China, as their stock prices soared. SMIC saw its stock jump over 9%, while another rival, Cambricon Technologies, saw its stock climb more than 8%. The performance of these two companies was so strong that they single-handedly lifted a major index of Chinese tech stocks (STAR 50 Index) by 5%.There was also a report which stated that local Chinese companies plan to increase AI chip output next year.Bank of Japan official Nakagawa, confirmed that they will continue to raise interest rates as long as the economy grows as they expect. He emphasized that the bank is paying very close attention to a major business confidence survey scheduled for October 1st. The results of this survey will be crucial for understanding how recent trade negotiations have been affecting Japanese companies.European Open - NVIDIA Outlook Eases AI Slowdown Fears On Thursday morning, European stock markets went up, mostly because the major AI chip company, Nvidia, reported strong results, which eased investor worries about the AI industry. However, there is still some uncertainty about Nvidia's future business in China.The pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX was up 0.3% at 556.53.This news led to mixed results for other European chip companies, as Nvidia's forecast, while still very good, wasn't as spectacular as some investors had hoped. Individual stocks such as ASML and BESI edged lower while ASM international rose around 1%.Overall, it was a positive start to the day for many European businesses, with the food delivery company Delivery Hero and the drinks maker Pernod Ricard seeing their stock prices rise 3.8% and 4% respectively after reporting good earnings.The French stock market also recovered some of its losses from earlier in the week with the CAC 40 index up 0.7%. The losses earlier this week had been caused by political instability in the country.On the FX front, the euro's value remained stable against the US dollar today at about $1.16. This follows a good period for the euro, which has been getting stronger for the last three weeks and is now up 2% for the month of August.Meanwhile, the US dollar was generally weaker against other currencies. This is because most traders now believe that US interest rates will be cut next month. As an example of the dollar's weakness, its value fell 0.2% against the Japanese yen with the pair trading around 147.13 at the time of writing.Currency Power Balance Source: OANDA Labs Oil prices saw a drop with Brent Crude down around 0.8% to trade at $67.49 per barrel.Gold prices continue to hold near yesterday's highs, trading around the $3395/oz handle at the time of writing.For more on Gold, read Gold (XAU/USD) Technical: Push up towards medium-term range resistance zone as Fed’s independence erodesEconomic Data Releases and Final Thoughts Looking at the economic calendar, the European session will bring the ECB meeting minutes later in the session.Before that though, we will get a look at Euro Area consumer confidence data which will be interesting after yesterdays disappointing German consumer confidence data yesterday.The US session will however bring a flurry of data which includes jobless claims data and the highly anticipated US GDP QoQ 2nd estimates. The US economic growth (GDP) figure might be adjusted slightly higher than the original 3.0% estimate. Even if this news gives the US dollar a temporary boost, it probably won't last long.Later tonight, a key US Federal Reserve official, Christopher Waller, is scheduled to give a speech. He is already in favor of lowering interest rates, and he might sound even more supportive of that idea after the recent jobs report confirmed his worries that the job market is getting weaker. For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge) Chart of the Day - FTSE 100 From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has completed the head and shoulder pattern and is eyeing a potential breakout.The period-14 RSI has also broken below the 50 neutral level, a sign that bearish momentum is now firmly in play.If the head and shoulder pattern finally gets a breakout, there is a possibility of a 110 point decline toward the 9120 area which would line up perfectly with the 200-day MA. (yellow line).Interesting inflection point for the FTSE 100 after multiple fresh all-time highs in the last few weeks. This sets the stage for a potential deeper retracement.FTSE Daily Chart, August 27. 2025 Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge) Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.© 2025 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.