News from the economy, politics and the financial markets
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How the MACD predicted the Nasdaq reversal in 2025 and why the same signal is appearing now [Video]
In April 2025, the MACD on the daily Nasdaq chart gave us one of the cleanest signals of the year. The market had been falling aggressively, sentiment was overwhelmingly bearish, and most traders were either short or sitting on their hands.
GBP/USD climbs above 1.3240 as Iran hopes dent US Dollar
The British Pound (GBP) advances by over 0.40% on Monday as US President Donald Trump said the Tuesday deadline he has set for Iran to make a deal is final, while rumors of a possible de-escalation weighed on the US Dollar (USD). GBP/USD trades around the 1.3240 figure at the time of writing.
USD/CAD edges lower as shifting US-Iran headlines keep markets cautious
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gains traction against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday as traders react to evolving geopolitical developments in the US-Iran war. At the time of writing, USD/CAD is trading around 1.3921, hovering near four-month highs.
US President Trump: Hopefully it will be over with quickly
Donald Trump, United States (US) President, said that he is very upset that guns were supposed to go to protesters, but were kept by a certain group. He added that they’re going to pay a big price for that at a speech in Washington on Monday.
EUR/USD gains as ceasefire hopes undermine US Dollar
The EUR/USD pair is trading near the 1.1570 price zone on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) loses momentum amid relative easing concerns about the Iran war.
APAC FX: Intervention and vulnerability to USD – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage focuses on rising FX intervention and fragile sentiment in Asia-Pacific (APAC) as higher Oil and geopolitical risks pressure regional currencies.
Gold consolidates gains as US-Iran ceasefire talks weigh on the US Dollar
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates modest gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) softens amid improving market sentiment, with traders reacting to fresh diplomatic developments aimed at ending the US-Iran war.
USD/JPY eases as US-Iran ceasefire talks weigh on US Dollar, ISM PMI softens
USD/JPY trades with a slightly softer tone on Monday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) finds modest support amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD), with traders assessing fresh geopolitical developments, including reports of potential ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran.
BYND stock is just above its all-time low
Beyond Meat (BYND), the plant-based food company behind meatless burgers, sausages, and other protein alternatives, is trading right at a level I can't ignore.
CAD: Jobs data and geopolitics steer rates – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Robert Both and Emma Lawrence highlight that Canadian rates are opening weaker, with yields tracking US moves and geopolitical tensions. They expect CAD employment to show only a modest rebound and see imported volatility dominating.
Breaking: US ISM Services PMI came in at 54 in March, below forecasts
Fresh data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday the Services PMI easing a tad to 54 in March from 56.1, coming in short of expectations at 55 and signalling some loss of momentum in the sector.
United States ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.7 (March) vs 63
United States ISM Services Prices Paid: 70.7 (March) vs 63
United States ISM Services PMI below forecasts (55) in March: Actual (54)
United States ISM Services PMI below forecasts (55) in March: Actual (54)
United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 58.6 to 60.6 in March
United States ISM Services New Orders Index rose from previous 58.6 to 60.6 in March
United States ISM Services Employment Index: 45.2 (March) vs previous 51.8
United States ISM Services Employment Index: 45.2 (March) vs previous 51.8
Brent: Conflict keeps risk premium elevated – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong argue that market hopes for de-escalation in the US–Iran conflict look premature for Brent.
Asian FX: Energy shock risks weigh on regional currencies – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan highlights that Asia is highly exposed to potential energy flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. An extended energy shock would raise inflation, worsen current accounts and hurt growth, leaving KRW, PHP and THB vulnerable.
EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Supported by converging SMAs but capped below 0.8750
EUR/GBP trades with a negative bias on Monday as diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war lift market sentiment and support risk-sensitive currencies, with the British Pound (GBP) relatively outperforming the Euro (EUR).
US: Services growth seen easing on Iran uncertainty – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts expect US ISM Services to soften in March as geopolitical uncertainty from Iran weighs on sentiment. They forecast the index to fall to 54.2, reversing February’s gain, with most components slowing and employment slipping back into contraction.
USD/IDR: BI turns cautious as Rupiah weakens – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao and Moses Lim note that Indonesia March CPI slowed to 3.5% year-on-year, back within Bank Indonesia’s (BI) target range, but warns that Middle East conflict and higher freight costs pose upside inflation risks.
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