Oil has shed more than 7% across two sessions on the back of the deal, with prices sliding to fresh three-month lows as markets price in the return of Iranian barrels. The speed of the sell-off reflects how much of a risk premium had been embedded during the Hormuz blockade, but traders are cautious: industry officials say regional output will take months to fully recover, and shipping companies are waiting for proof the ceasefire holds before resuming normal routing. The unresolved Israel-Lebanon dimension and Iran's insistence on retaining Revolutionary Guards oversight of Hormuz passage introduce enough uncertainty to keep a floor under prices near term.--- The US and Iran have agreed a 60-day MOU extending their ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz from Friday and allowing Iranian oil exports to resume, with a permanent deal still to be negotiated. Summary:The US and Iran have signed a memorandum of understanding extending their April ceasefire by 60 days to allow negotiations toward a permanent truce, with formal signing set for Friday in SwitzerlandKey MOU terms include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for free commercial shipping, the immediate release of frozen Iranian assets, and temporary sanctions waivers enabling Iran to export oilIran agreed not to develop or acquire nuclear weapons, but its existing nuclear programme will continue during talks, with the enriched uranium stockpile to be addressed in future negotiationsIsrael has distanced itself from the agreement, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating Israel is not bound by it and will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, a position that complicates the ceasefire's durabilityA final deal could include full sanctions relief, a US military withdrawal within 30 days, and a $300 billion Gulf-state-funded reconstruction fund for Iran, contingent on further compliance Details of the interim agreement between the United States and Iran have begun to emerge, offering the clearest picture yet of where the two countries stand and what a 60-day diplomatic sprint must deliver to prevent the region from sliding back to war.The memorandum of understanding, not yet formally released but set to be signed in Switzerland on Friday, extends the ceasefire announced in April while negotiators tackle the deeper issues that neither side has resolved. Among its immediate provisions: the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shut since US and Israeli strikes on February 28, will reopen to free commercial shipping, frozen Iranian assets will be released, and Tehran will be permitted to resume oil exports under temporary sanctions waivers. Iran also agreed that it will not develop or acquire nuclear weapons, though its existing nuclear programme continues and the fate of its enriched uranium stockpile is deferred to later talks.President Trump described the agreement as a barrier against a nuclear-armed Iran and said the full text would be made public in coming days. Speaking at the G7 in France, he expressed confidence the next phase of talks would move quickly, citing Iran's desire to return to normal economic life after a destructive conflict. Iran has long maintained its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.The accord leaves significant complications unaddressed. Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for regional armed groups, including Hezbollah, were not on the agenda. Israel, which was not party to the negotiations, has explicitly rejected the ceasefire's application to its operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has signalled it will not accept a permanent arrangement while Israeli forces remain there. Iran's military command warned Israel to expect consequences if strikes on Lebanon continue.Shipping markets are watching closely. Both sides say Hormuz will be open from Friday, but Iran's Revolutionary Guards retain a coordination role over vessel passage, and commercial operators say they will hold off on normalising routes until the ceasefire proves durable. Oil prices fell more than 2% on Tuesday, extending a slide of nearly 5% the previous session, though a full recovery in regional output is expected to take months.If a permanent deal is reached, the framework on the table would be sweeping: full sanctions relief, a US military withdrawal, and a reconstruction fund of up to $300 billion financed by Gulf states. That outcome remains a considerable distance away. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The yen's inability to rally on the back of a rate hike underscores how deeply entrenched bearish positioning has become, with leveraged funds having built up significant short exposure over the past month. Intervention risk is rising again as dollar/yen approaches levels that previously triggered official action, with the 161-162 zone flagged as the likely threshold. Falling energy prices from the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offer a partial offset for Japan's import bill and could modestly support the currency, but analysts caution this dynamic also bolsters global risk appetite, which in turn sustains carry trade demand and limits yen upside.--- The yen remained weak after the BoJ raised rates 25bp to 1.00%, with analysts warning of intervention risk near 161-162 and a disorderly carry trade unwind seen as unlikely given the well-telegraphed move. Summary: Sources: MUFG; analyst commentaryThe BoJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00% but gave no strong signal on the timing of the next move, according to MUFGMUFG said the yen's failure to strengthen after the hike keeps pressure on Japanese authorities to intervene againLeveraged funds have increased short yen positions significantly over the past month, adding to concerns about speculative selling pressure, MUFG notedThe US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz should ease some fundamental selling pressure on the yen by lowering energy prices and reducing expectations for Fed rate hikes, per MUFGIf the BoJ holds off on another hike until December, the yen will remain in negative real interest rate territory and continue to function as a carry trade funding currency, other analysts warnedA repeat of the sharp carry trade unwind seen in August 2024 is considered unlikely given the hike was well telegraphed and largely priced in, analysts said, though dollar/yen risks extend to the 161-162 zone where further intervention is probable The Japanese yen failed to find meaningful support after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, leaving the currency under pressure and keeping the prospect of official intervention firmly in play, analysts said.MUFG said the central bank gave no firm steer on the timing of its next move, and that the yen's lack of response to the hike would sustain pressure on Tokyo to step back into the market. The bank noted that leveraged funds had been aggressively building short yen positions over the past month, fuelling concern that speculative flows, rather than fundamentals, are driving the currency's weakness.One potential source of relief identified by MUFG is the US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Lower energy prices would reduce Japan's import costs, a structural drag on the yen, while also dampening expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, which has kept the interest rate differential between the US and Japan wide and unfavourable for the yen.Other analysts flagged that if the BoJ refrains from hiking again until December, Japan will remain in deeply negative real interest rate territory when adjusted for inflation, preserving the yen's role as the preferred funding currency for carry trades. With volatility expected to stay subdued through the northern summer, renewed appetite for carry strategies could push dollar/yen above 160.70, with the 161-162 zone identified as the area where intervention becomes most likely.Despite the parallels with the August 2024 episode, when a BoJ rate increase triggered a violent and rapid unwinding of yen carry trades, analysts said a repeat of that dislocation looks unlikely on this occasion. The current hike was extensively communicated in advance and was largely anticipated by markets. Lower oil prices, while supportive of Japan's terms of trade, also underpin global risk sentiment and help sustain equity market momentum, factors that limit the conditions needed for a disorderly reversal. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The sharp deterioration in New Zealand consumer confidence adds to the pressure on the RBNZ as it weighs further rate hikes against a labour market already hovering near decade-high unemployment. A weakening sentiment backdrop reduces the likelihood that domestic demand will keep inflation elevated without additional policy tightening, but it also raises the political and economic cost of hiking further. The New Zealand dollar may face headwinds if the data flow continues to point to a stagflationary squeeze, while rate markets will be watching closely for any signal the RBNZ recalibrates its projected tightening path.--- New Zealand consumer confidence fell to 80.4 in Q2 from 94.7, its lowest since 2023, as Middle East war-driven fuel costs and borrowing pressures weighed on households, a Westpac McDermott Miller survey showed. Summary: Source: Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence surveyThe index fell to 80.4 in the second quarter from 94.7 in the prior quarter, its weakest reading since 2023A reading below 100 signals pessimists outnumber optimistsWestpac attributed the decline to higher fuel and living costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, along with upward pressure on borrowing costsThe RBNZ has flagged at least two quarter-point rate hikes by year-end despite unemployment sitting at a decade high of 5.3%The government removed the RBNZ's full employment obligation from its mandate in 2023, leaving inflation as the primary policy objectiveThe RBNZ projects unemployment to linger at 5.4% for at least a year, a level not seen before late last year since 2015 Consumer confidence in New Zealand slumped to its lowest point since 2023 in the second quarter, a closely watched survey showed on Wednesday, as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict filtered through to household budgets via higher fuel prices, rising living costs, and growing anxiety about the borrowing outlook.The Westpac McDermott Miller consumer confidence index fell to 80.4 from 94.7 in the previous quarter, a steep decline that pushed the reading well below the 100-point threshold that separates optimists from pessimists. Westpac said the conflict had driven a broad-based deterioration in sentiment, with cost pressures and concerns about the trajectory of economic activity compounding the squeeze on households already strained by years of elevated interest rates.The result lands at an uncomfortable moment for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which is preparing to lift rates further despite a labour market that has softened markedly. The central bank skipped a hike at its most recent meeting in the closest decision in its history, but has projected a minimum of two quarter-point increases before year-end. It simultaneously forecast unemployment would remain at 5.4% for at least a year, a level not recorded before late last year since 2015.The policy calculus is shaped by a mandate change enacted by the National Party-led coalition government shortly after taking office in 2023, which stripped the RBNZ of its formal obligation to support full employment. Inflation remains the singular priority, with the central bank projecting the energy shock from the Iran conflict will push the rate to 4.3% in coming months, well above the 1% to 3% target band.Critics warn the combination of a weakening jobs market, a cost-of-living crisis, and further rate hikes risks pushing the economy into a prolonged stagflationary episode. With the labour market already the most anaemic among developed economies by some measures, confidence data of this kind will intensify scrutiny of whether the RBNZ's narrow mandate is calibrated for the conditions it now faces. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US May housing starts 1.177 million versus 1.430 million estimateUS May import prices +1.9% vs +1.0% expectedTrump says Iran deal should be successful, reiterates Iran will never have nuclear weaponTrump says he expects second stage of Iran deal to go quicklyFed preview: Warsh walks into a minefield -- a look at early stumbles of other ChairmenOil falls further on a report that Iran could be allowed to immediately sell oilMarkets:S&P 500 down 0.6%Nasdaq down 1.1%WTI crude oil down $4.12 to $76.63US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 4.44%EUR leads, CHF lagsGold up $26 to $4333Oil continued to plummet on Tuesday as it fell another $4. After the bell, the API private inventory numbers showed another huge drawdown in oil supplies and that's likely to continue for at least another week with the deal not set to be signed until Friday. In any case, the oil market is looking forward and sees the resumption of flows. Either that, or the oil longs are capitulating.What's notable is that the cross-asset reaction isn't as big as you'd expect for a 4.5% decline in crude. US Treasury yields fell 2-3 bps and the FX market was largely unmoved on the day. Even oil equities had a skeptical look with the XLE ETF down just 0.3%.In the broader equity markets, there was some profit taking in the Nasdaq to lead stocks lower. High flying Intel was knocked down 8% and looks like it could be forming a double top. Micron also formed and outside day and was down 6%. Broadcom and Nvidia were also lower but eyes were on SpaceX, which squeezed as much as 20% higher before finishing up just 4.8%.Overall volatility was likely cooled by the Fed decision on Wednesday, which will be the first one from Kevin Warsh. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Via oilprice.com, although I have added in some of the missing pieces from other sources: This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Crude oil futures are settling at $76.05 - its lowest close since March 3. The futures settled down $4.70 or -5.82%. Technically, the settled price is now within $1.57 of it 200 day moving average the price is not traded below that level since February 17 when the moving average was near $62.10.On the top side, the close risk includes the swing area between $77.10 and $78.97. Just above that is a 61.8% retracement of the move up from the end of December low to the high price reached in March. That level comes in at $79.62. Stay below that area is the best case scenario for the sellers looking for more downside.If the 200 day moving average below is broken at $73.48, traders will be looking toward the February 27 closing level of $67.04. The Iran/US war started on February 28. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

There is a something of a tradition at the Federal Reserve of rookie Chairmen causing themselves problems early in their terms, or in their first press conferences. It's a rare event that begs for a live feed and strong preparation. On Wednesday, the market isn't sure what to expect and that's why the US dollar has been so quiet this week. There is a near certainty he will be pressed about +4% inflation and that could easily lead to him sounding overly hawkish and causing a dollar rally. In contrast, the market doesn't think he will continue to the arch-dove he was during confirmation, but if he talks about rate cuts, that might need to be repriced. Furthermore, the Chair's job at the press conference is to speak for the whole of the FOMC, so the market could have a hard time telling the difference between Warsh's opinions and the Committee's.Here are some early stumbles from other Fed Chairs:YellenIn March 2014, Yellen committed the textbook version at her first press conference. Asked to define how long "considerable period" meant between ending QE and the first hike, she said it probably means something on the order of around six months or that type of thing — more hawkish than the market expected, and both stock and bond markets sold off.BernankeAnother famous early-term incident was Ben Bernanke about two months into his term. where he testified before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. He noted that the Fed might choose to pause its two-year-long rate-hiking campaign "at some point". That led to a six-year high in stock markets and he was taken as a dove. Then that weekend, at the White House Correspondents' Association dinner, he chatted casually with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo and told her the markets and media had it wrong: he wasn't signaling he was finished, and it bothered him that people were reading him as dovish and she reported it that Monday afternoon on the air, leading to a selloff. He later called it a lapse of judgement to be speaking to the press about rates.PowellIt was a longer wait for a mistake from Powell as it didn't come until the Autumn but in an October interview with PBS's Judy Woodruff, Powell said the Fed was "a long way from neutral at this point, probably" and might "go past neutral." Markets read it as a green light for a long runway of further hikes, and it lit the fuse on the Q4 2018 selloff. In short order, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 3.06% to 3.23% by that Friday, while the Dow and S&P 500 fell 1.8% and Nasdaq fell 3.3% from Wednesday intraday highs to Friday’s closeJust six weeks later, at the Economic Club of New York, he softened it, calling rates "just below" the neutral range.He made a second mistake later that year at the December FOMC press conference. He was asked whether the Fed would reconsider shrinking its balance sheet. He insisted the runoff would continue on "autopilot," telegraphing that quantitative tightening wasn't up for negotiation. Stocks tumbled during the press conference and kept falling into Christmas Eve — the worst December for U.S. equities since the Great Depression.On January 4, he went into full reverse at the American Economic Association meeting in Atlanta. He reassured investors the Fed would be flexible with all its policy tools, said there was no preset path and the Fed could be patient on rates, and crucially that he wouldn't hesitate to change the pace of balance sheet reduction if needed. The lessonThe lesson from all three -- and Lagarde's famous "I'm not here to close spreads" is that markets are apt to take small signals or modest messages and extrapolate big moves. I wouldn't expect it to be any different with Warsh. If anything, Warsh has a certain arrogance and willingness to make waves that hasn't been at the Fed since Greenspan, which should amplify the drama.At the moment, the market is pricing in 20.8 bps in rate hikes for December. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

High yield 4.927%WI level at the time of the auction 4.937%Tail -1.0 basis points versus average of -0.1 basis pointsBid to cover 2.75X versus average of 2.65XDirects (domestic demand) 19.9% versus average of 24.3%Indirects (international demand) 73.2% versus average of 64.9%Dealers 8.5% versus average of 10.8%Auction Grade A-The component pieces of the auction all were better than the averages with the exception of the domestic buyers who are squeezed out by the international buyers who exerted strong demand for the issue. The 20 year issue is not a major interest for investors. High YieldThe high yield is the highest yield accepted at the auction and becomes the yield awarded to all successful bidders.Higher-than-expected yield = weaker demand.Lower-than-expected yield = stronger demand.Tail The tail measures the difference between the auction's high yield and the yield where the bond was trading just before the auction (the "when-issued" yield).Positive tail (high yield above WI yield) = weaker auction.Negative tail or stop-through (high yield below WI yield) = stronger auction.Example:WI yield: 4.50%Auction high yield: 4.53%Tail: +3 basis points (weak)Bid-to-Cover RatioThe bid-to-cover ratio measures total bids received relative to the amount offered.Formula:Bid-to-Cover = Total Bids ÷ Amount OfferedExample:Treasury sells $22 billionReceives $55 billion in bidsBid-to-cover = 2.50Higher ratios generally indicate stronger demand.Direct Bidders (%)Direct bidders submit bids directly to the Treasury.Typically includes:Domestic money managersPension fundsMutual fundsSome hedge fundsA higher direct percentage often suggests strong domestic investor interest.Indirect Bidders (%)Indirect bidders are primarily:Foreign central banksSovereign wealth fundsForeign institutionsThis is often the most closely watched category.A high indirect take is usually viewed as a positive sign because it indicates strong foreign demand for U.S. debt.Dealers (%) Primary dealers are required to participate and buy any securities not taken by others.Examples include:JPMorgan ChaseGoldman SachsBank of AmericaA high dealer allocation is generally viewed as a negative because it means investors were less willing to absorb the supply.Quick Auction Scorecard This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USD is moving lower helped by lower oil, and lower rates. Crude oil is trading down around five dollars and $75.82, and getting closer to its next key target at the rising 200 day moving average at $73.47 The 10 year yield is now down -4.4 basis points at 4.423% Looking at some of the major currency pairs:EURUSD: The EURUSD is pushing to a fresh session high at 1.1619, bringing the pair back up to test yesterday’s peak. The next key upside target comes in at the 50% midpoint of the trading range since mid-March at 1.16287. A sustained move above that level would strengthen the bullish case and shift the focus toward the June 4 and June 5 highs near 1.1644.If buyers can clear that resistance area, attention would then turn to a more significant swing zone between 1.1655 and 1.1667, an area that has acted as an important technical battleground in recent months. Beyond that, the pair faces another key hurdle with both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages converging near 1.1676. That confluence creates a notable resistance target and a level that could attract increased profit-taking or fresh selling interest on the first test.For now, the path of least resistance remains higher, with buyers maintaining control as long as the pair continues to press against and ultimately break through the resistance levels overheadGBPUSD: The GBPUSD is also extending to fresh session highs, reaching 1.3443 and continuing its recovery from last week's lows. The next key resistance zone comes in between 1.3446 and 1.3465, a range that includes the 100-day moving average at 1.34629.That moving average represents an important technical hurdle. On May 29, June 2, and June 5, buyers managed to push above the 100-day moving average, but each breakout attempt quickly failed, with the pair closing back below the level. In fact, the GBPUSD has not recorded a daily close above its 100-day moving average since May 25, underscoring its significance as a barometer for the longer-term bias.On the supportive side, today's rally has carried the pair above its 200-day moving average at 1.34163. The price is now moving further away from that level, making it an important near-term risk-defining support level. As long as the pair remains above the 200-day moving average, buyers retain the upper hand and can continue to target the 100-day moving average and the resistance zone above. A break and close above that area would represent an important technical victory for the bulls and open the door for a broader upside extension....more This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The NASDAQ surged higher on Monday following the weekend developments, gapping above both its 200-hour moving average (26,284.98) and 100-hour moving average (26,383.84). That move shifted the near-term technical bias firmly back in favor of the buyers. For the sellers to regain control, they would need to push the index back below those key moving averages. Until then, the current pullback is best viewed as a normal correction within a strong upward move rather than the start of a deeper reversal.Despite today's modest decline, the index remains comfortably above its key support levels, leaving little reason for buyers to be concerned. Since Thursday's low, the NASDAQ has rallied nearly 6.7% in just three trading days, making some profit-taking and consolidation a natural development. As long as the moving averages continue to hold as support, the upside remains favored.On the topside, the next key target comes in at 26,826.97. A break above that level would increase bullish momentum and open the door for a test of the all-time high at 27,190.21. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

WTI crude is now down more than 5% to $76.01 on a report that the US will allow Iran to immediately sell oil when the deal is signed. There was some speculation it would be phased or slow walked along with Iran opening the Strait.Obviously, there was pressure on Trump to do a deal in order to keep crude prices from spiking so this doesn't surprise me. Evidently though, it caught the market off guard and crude is getting hammered down to the lowest levels since the first days of the war.UPDATE: Reports that Iran has pledged to remove all mines and obstacles from the Strait of Hormuz. From US official:Iran must not interfere with navigation in the StraitIran must not obtain nuclear weapon. TechnicalsThe price is now moving away from swing area support between $77.44 and $78.97 and the broken 61.8% level near $79.81(see yellow area). The next key target comes in against its key 200 day moving average (overlayed green dash line) at $73.48. Getting below that key MA level, and traders will start to target the February 27 closing level right before the start of the war at $67.04. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The price of crude oil continues to slide, with WTI now trading around the $77 level, down roughly $3.70, or 4.6%, on the day. The decline extends a sharp three-day selloff that has seen prices fall 5.9%, 2.5%, and now another 4.6%, as traders continue to unwind the geopolitical risk premium that had been built into the market during the U.S.-Iran conflict.From a technical perspective, the bearish case has strengthened. The price has broken below a key swing area between $77.44 and $78.97 and is also trading beneath the 61.8% retracement level at $79.62 of the rally from the December 2025 low to the March high. That zone, up to $79.62, now serves as the first important resistance area and a close risk level for sellers. As long as the price remains below that level, the downside bias remains firmly in place.For traders looking for a more conservative risk parameter, the next major resistance zone comes in between $85.45 and $86.89. That area includes a key swing zone as well as the 100-day moving average at $86.89. A move back above that cluster would force a reassessment of the bearish outlook, but for now the sellers remain firmly in control.If downside momentum persists, attention will increasingly shift toward the 200-day moving average at $73.48. Crude oil has traded above that moving average since mid-February, making it a critical longer-term support level. A break and sustained move below it would increase the bearish bias further and could open the door toward the February 27 closing level of $67.04, which was the last trading day before the war began.At the gasoline pump, prices have been slower to respond. According to AAA, the national average price for regular gasoline remains above $4.00 per gallon at $4.04. However, that is well below the May peak of $4.56 per gallon reached as crude oil surged during the conflict.For comparison:February 27, 2026 (pre-war): $2.98 per gallonJanuary 20, 2025 (end of the Biden administration): $3.12 per gallonMay 2026 peak: $4.56 per gallonCurrent AAA national average: $4.04 per gallonWhile the recent decline in crude oil prices should continue to ease pressure at the pump, gasoline prices would still need to fall by roughly $1.00 per gallon to return to the levels seen before the conflict and around the end of the Biden administration. That leaves room for President Trump to point to lower energy costs if the decline in crude oil prices continues and those savings are ultimately passed on to consumers This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The bears are making something of a stand.US stock markets opened higher but have reversed and now the Nasdaq is lower by 0.5%. It's a mixed bag in terms of names and memes as Western Digital remains up 6.5% (though it was up 10%) and Intel falls 5.7%. The latter name is carving out something of a double top in a move that could be a warning sign of the tech-driven meme stocks.On the positive side, travel names continue to bask in the post-Hormuz glow with oil prices down another $3 today. Expedia is up another 2.3% after a big gain yesterday and airline stocks are higher led by America, up 4.5%.The names that are dropping today include Tesla, which is lower by 2.2%. SpaceX is also very volatile today. It was up 20% to $225 but that big figure seems to have triggered some profit taking and it's down to $206, though still up 7.4% on the day. Options begin trading in it today and that's going to add to the madness. It's market cap is currently slightly below Amazon's.Notably, two of the softer names today are Broadcom and Nvidia, which are AI and chipmaking giants. Both are among the worst-performers in the SOXX chipmaking index this year, which is a sign that the market is looking for torque, not value. That's late-stage behaviour. Another loser today is Netflix, which is down 3.8% after it lost out in the Roku bidding war to Fox. It's now nearly roundtripped the jump after it bowed out of the Warner Brothers' bidding war. I wonder if the market is starting to price in disruption via AI or YouTube rather than rewarding the company for disciplined capital allocation.Consensus earnings for 2026 and 2027 is 3.58/3.88 which puts shares at 22x/20x -- not exactly rich if you think the model is defensive. There's upside if you believe the same AI disruption can significantly lower costs.For some perspective, NFLX's market cap is now $330 billion compared to $2.7 trillion for SpaceX. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

? Sector OverviewThe U.S. stock market showcases a mixed picture today, primarily driven by sharp declines in the technology sector, particularly in semiconductors, while financial sectors and consumer cyclical stocks exhibit strength.? Technology & Semiconductors: A challenging day with industry leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) falling by 1.78%. Other major players such as AMD and Intel are facing even steeper declines at 4.10% and 5.58%, respectively, hinting at systemic pressures within the sector.? Financial Uplift: Conversely, financial stocks are buoyant, with big names like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) up by 2.51% and Bank of America (BAC) appreciating by 1.24%. Credit services also post gains—Visa (V) and Mastercard both in the green signal investor confidence in financial stability.?️ Consumer Cyclical Surge: The consumer cyclical sector mirrors positive sentiment, heavily driven by Home Depot (HD) with a 2.42% increase and Amazon (AMZN) slightly up by 0.33%, pointing to optimism towards retail resilience.? Market Mood and TrendsThe current market mood underscores a lack of uniformity, with pronounced optimism in consumer and financial sectors counterbalanced by bearish trends in technology. This jarring sector performance hints at sector rotation where investors may be repositioning from overvalued tech stocks into more defensive plays like consumer durables and financial services.? Strategic RecommendationsGiven the market's heterogeneous composition today, investors should consider increasing their exposure to financial and consumer cyclical sectors, capitalizing on their relative strength. The decline in semiconductor stocks indicates potential vulnerabilities; thus, maintaining cautious exposure to tech-heavy portfolios might be advisable until stabilization is observed.? Keep a close eye on companies like GE and CAT within industrials, as they exhibit positive movement today, suggesting emerging strength in industrial and defense sectors amid infrastructural growth narratives.Stay updated with real-time changes by visiting InvestingLive.com for a deeper understanding of evolving market dynamics and strategic investment opportunities. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The RBA left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that both headline and underlying inflation remain above target. Policymakers also highlighted elevated uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, particularly the impact that ongoing Middle East tensions could have on global energy prices. While the statement retained a cautious tone, some of the more hawkish language was softened.From a technical perspective, however, the AUDUSD remains trapped within a well-defined cluster of key levels. The pair is currently trading near 0.7074. On the topside, the 100-day moving average at 0.70834 continues to cap gains and remains the key hurdle that must be broken to increase the bullish bias. On the downside, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 0.70417. Today's low reached 0.7043, just above that support level, allowing buyers to maintain a foothold.Separating those two boundary levels is a centerline defined by both the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the rally from the late-March low to the May high, which converge near 0.7055. That area has become the battleground between buyers and sellers.As a result, traders remain caught between the 100-day moving average resistance above and the 100-hour moving average support below, with the 200-hour moving average/50% retracement area serving as the midpoint. A sustained break above the 100-day moving average would tilt the bias more firmly in favor of the buyers, while a move below the 100-hour moving average would hand greater control to the sellers. Until one of those levels gives way, the pair remains locked in a tug-of-war with neither side able to seize a decisive advantage. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD began the new trading day near its session low at 1.3985, just above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the March 2025 high to the January 2026 low at 1.39839. Importantly for buyers, that low remained comfortably above the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.39726 and well above a key swing area between 1.3948 and 1.3966, which has transitioned from resistance into support. Together, these levels form an important support zone. A move below that cluster would increase the bearish bias and hand more control back to sellers. Until then, the broader uptrend remains intact and buyers continue to hold the advantage.On the topside, resistance remains at last week's high of 1.40332. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door toward the October 15, 2025 high near 1.4082, followed by the November 2025 high and the 50% retracement level at 1.41384. That 50% midpoint is likely to represent a significant hurdle on any initial test.From a fundamental perspective, as the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict appears to be moving toward a peace agreement, investor attention may soon shift back to trade policy. That could put the spotlight squarely on U.S.-Canada relations and the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Markets remain concerned that trade tensions could reemerge if negotiations become contentious.Currently, several tariffs remain in place on Canadian exports, including duties on steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber, and certain wood products. Canada has maintained retaliatory tariffs on U.S. vehicles as well as roughly C$15.6 billion worth of U.S. steel and aluminum imports. Looking ahead, the formal USMCA review scheduled for July 2026 is widely viewed as the next major potential flashpoint in the relationship. The prospect of difficult negotiations and possible changes to the agreement has helped keep pressure on the Canadian dollar and has provided an additional tailwind for USDCAD. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Oil is on my radar.1.This is starting to look like capitulation. WTI is down another $3.13 to $77.26 today and is down dramatically from $91.62 last Thursday. The driver is obviously the peace in Hormuz and Trump repeatedly saying the Strait will be opened this week. That's a positive timeline and a reason to sell oil but all the way down to $77 is eyebrow raising.Crude was at $65 before the war and $60 before the rumblings of war but this has been a monumental shock to supply.The world lost 10-12 million barrels per day throughout the war, which amounted to around 100 days. That's more than a billion barrels of oil that will need to be backfilled. I'm skeptical that any more than 1 mbpd of demand was destroyed and the deficit continues to worsen by the day.Once the Strait is truly opened, it's going to take some time for the oil to flow and yesterday, former Goldman Sachs commodities head Jeff Currie said that flows will not normalize until year end.Currie pointed to something I've been saying about physical inventories: That people took Trump at his word that oil prices would fall. That meant that anyone with oil inventories to sell was selling them. That stockpile drawdown cushioned the market tremendously but soon the mood will shift."Have you looked at German heating oil inventories," Currie said. "They're not restocking because they believe uncertainty is going to lead to a lower price tomorrow. Why am I in this market today if I can buy it cheaper tomorrow?"I think we're very close to 'tomorrow'.Right now, there are 60 million barrels that will get flushed out of Hormuz as it opens but ships might not be in a rush to go back and get more, which should slow restocking.What really has my attention is the price action and the commentary.The swift fall to $76 looks like a capitulation from the oil bulls. In terms of specs, the risk-reward of selling oil here at a trade is terrible so I can't imagine the sellers are specs. Instead, it's longs that are getting roughed up.What really has my attention is the commentary and I've seen this pattern over and over. It's the winners dunking on the losers, the losers going from disbelief to anger to capitulation.That kind of thing is one of the most-reliable indicators of a bottom. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Comments from Trump:Will release text of Iran agreement in a formal settingMOU states clearly Iran will not have a nuclear weaponWill have a news conference on the Iran dealWill go over Iran MOU with media in a couple daysAgreement is about one thing: Iran will never have a nuclear weaponLikes the idea of sending the agreement to Congress for reviewWe are in a position to let Russian oil waivers lapseSoon we'll be able to do increased sanctions on RussiaIran talks could be lengthened or shortenedThe obvious reason is that he's not releasing the text is that it's a terrible deal to get out of a bad war. JD Vance is also out there saying that Iran won't get a cent of US money but there's a $300 billion number floating around. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +1.9% (revised to +2.0%)Import prices up 6.7% y/yExport prices +1.3% vs +1.2% expectedPrior export prices +3.3% (revised to +3.5%)The US dollar is relatively flat today ahead of the data as we wait for Wednesday's FOMC decision. This report will give them a bit extra to think about on the inflation side as prices continue to rise for imported goods. The big caveat is that WTI crude is down to $77.64, which is the lowest since March 10. That should lead to a material drop in the upcoming m/m readings.In terms of details, imported fuel prices rose 12.5% in May on top of 18.6% in April and 10.2% in March. That 47% three-month surge is the largest since the COVID rebound period ended July 2020.What's more worrisome is that nonfuel import prices rose 0.8% in May and 3.7% over the year — the fastest 12-month pace since August 2022. Consumer goods ex-autos jumped 0.5%, the biggest monthly gain since January 2024. Capital goods +1.3%. For background, the US Import and Export Price Indexes, published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, track what Americans pay for foreign goods and what foreigners pay for American ones. It's the unglamorous cousin of CPI and PPI — released mid-month, after the inflation prints that move markets — but it's the cleanest read on imported price pressure and the terms of trade. Crucially, it measures prices at the border, before domestic margins and retail markups distort the signal, which makes it the single best gauge of whether tariffs are being absorbed by foreign exporters or passed straight to U.S. buyers.The April report leaned hot. Import prices rose 1.9 percent in April following a 0.9 percent increase in March, with higher fuel costs doing the heavy lifting. That pushed the 12-month rate of import inflation to 4.2 percent, up from 2.3 percent in March and just 0.2 percent at the start of the year — a remarkably steep acceleration in four months. Strip out the fuel noise and the picture is firmer but tamer: capital goods prices climbed 1.1 percent, consumer goods ex-autos rose 0.4 percent, and automotive prices slipped 0.1 percent.The export side ran even hotter. Export prices jumped 3.3 percent in April and 8.8 percent over the year, the largest over-the-year advance since the index rose 9.8 percent for the year ended September 2022. Agricultural exports added 1.6 percent on the month. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month housing starts 1.465 million revised lower 21.392 millionPrior month building permits 1.442 million .Data for May: Housing starts 1.177M vs 1.430 million estimateHousing starts -15.4% vs -8.5% last month last montBuilding Permits 1.413M vs 1.420M estimateBuilding permits -0.7% versus +5.8% last month.Housing starts fall sharply:Single-family housing starts: 882,000 annualized units -1.9% vs. April's revised 899,000 pace Multi-family housing starts (5 units or more): 284,000 annualized units.The April rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 529,000.Although single family housing starts fell, the multifamily housing starts plunged from 529,000 to 284,000Key Takeaway from the housing starts Housing starts fell sharply in May, driven primarily by weakness in the overall construction sector. Single-family construction declined only modestly, while the larger drop came from the more volatile multi-family segment. The data points to continued softness in residential construction activity amid higher borrowing costs and affordability challenges.Details of the Building Permits data:Single-family permits: 886,000 annualized units +0.6% vs. April's revised 881,000 pace Multi-family permits (5 units or more): 474,000 annualized units. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 514,000 in April.Key Takeaway from the building permits. Building permits were little changed in May, slipping modestly from both the prior month and a year ago. Single-family permits edged higher, suggesting builders remain willing to add new projects despite affordability challenges and elevated financing costs. The overall softness in permits reflects continued caution in the housing sector, particularly in the multi-family market.U.S. Housing Completions – May 2026Total housing completions: 1.313 million annualized units -8.1% vs. April's revised 1.429 million pace -14.2% vs. May 2025's 1.530 million pace Single-family completions: 872,000 annualized units -1.6% vs. April's revised 886,000 pace Multi-family completions (5 units or more): 426,000 annualized units Key Takeaway Housing completions fell sharply in May, declining both from the prior month and a year earlier. Single-family completions were relatively steady, posting only a modest decline. The broader weakness points to a slowdown in the pace at which homes are being delivered to the market, suggesting residential construction activity remains under pressure amid higher financing costs and softer housing demand.THe Nasdaq has turned into negative territory in pre-market trading (down -40 points). The Dow is still marginally higher. The S&P id down -0.79 points. Yields are marginally lower. The 10 year is down -2.7 basis points at 4.441%. The 2 year is down -1.2 basis points at 4.051% This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.