We have lift-off.SpaceX opening price is at $150. That is down from the earlier indicative prices between $170 to $175 but still above the $135 IPO price. Recall that Cerebras IPO opened well above its IPo price and rose to a high of $386.34 on the first day of trading. It's shares are now at $211.24 after trading to a low of $196.73. The IPO price was $185. So the market might be a little more cautious especially given the float of $75B for SpaceX.The price is trading higher at $159 as traders who did not get in, have their chance of history - win or lose.Note that SpaceX will be part of the major indices including the Nasdaq 100 over the coming few weeks. That has implications for the indices and also the various ETFs which track the markets.Elon Musk becomes the first trillionaire in the human race. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

VP Vance is on the wires saying:Seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen Strait and ending Iran's nuclear weapons program.HMMMM.. I thought those were two of the main goals in the process. Vance adds: Iranians are not receiving any cashNo funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending meetingWhy do they even have to announce something like that now, except to sooth Mr. President's ego. Just let it happen and be quiet for a change. Given that we've heard some version of "a deal is imminent" nearly 40 times without an agreement actually being reached, the criticism of the information itself seems somewhat misplaced, though hardly unexpected.Just saying.... This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The Iranian Foreign Minister is saying that:The memorandum of understanding has never been closerThe signing is pending its finalizationHe comments that the media should refrain from entering into speculation about its contentsThe details of the deal will be forthcomingA diplomatic source is also commenting that the US and Iran have informed mediators of their readiness to sign. Crude oil is trading at $84.79 which is down around one dollar on the day. US stocks are moving to the upside with the S&P now at new highs up 47 points or 0.63% at 7440.36. The NASDAQ index is up 106 point or 0.41% at 25916.07. The S&P index is pushing above its 200 hour moving average at 7433.24. The NASDAQ index is also pushing to new highs. It remains well short of its 200 hour moving average at 26194.49. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector OverviewThe US stock market showcased a complex landscape today, with technology stocks primarily leading the way. The semiconductor sector saw significant momentum, thanks to some impressive performances. NVDA rose by 0.54% and AMD skyrocketed by 5.39%, contributing to a bullish sentiment in the sector. Notably, TXN's impressive gain of 1.14% further supports this upward trajectory.Meanwhile, the consumer cyclical sector encountered pressure, highlighted by a decline in AMZN by 2.04%. In the healthcare segment, JNJ experienced a slight dip of 0.16%, and LLY decreased by 0.96%.Market Mood and TrendsInvestor sentiment appears mixed, underscoring a volatility-driven market environment. The tech rally, spearheaded by gains in semiconductors, provides a hopeful vision amidst uncertainties. However, mixed results in sectors like consumer cyclicals and healthcare reflect underlying market tensions.GOOGL rose significantly by 1.42%, echoing confidence in communication services despite prevailing uncertainties in other areas.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors might consider favoring sectors that show resilience and growth potential. The positive performance in technology could signal continued opportunities. Monitoring stocks like AMD and NVDA could yield benefits as technological innovations unfold.Financials show strength with JPM up 1.67%, indicating potential stability within this sector. Diversifying portfolios with a balance of high-performing tech stocks and steady financials can be a strategic move during these volatile times.As always, stay abreast of market updates to navigate the landscape effectively. For more insights and analysis, visit InvestingLive.com for the latest trends in the market! ? This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

There is some confusion. The headline says that SpaceX opened at $172 per share but a subsequent headline now reads that SpaceX is indicated at $170. I don't see price action and CNBC is muddling along with an interview with Gwynne Shotwel SpaceX Pres and COO. I don't think that is how the first trade would go.....Let's call it fake news. It is a bit early.The headline was taken down... Someone has itchy fingers. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The broader U.S. stock indices rallied yesterday on optimism surrounding a reported ceasefire agreement in the Middle East. Today, however, markets gave back some of those gains after Iran appeared to push back on parts of the deal, creating renewed uncertainty.Despite the early weakness, stocks have bounced off their lows following a stronger-than-expected University of Michigan consumer sentiment report, helping to stabilize risk appetite heading into the North American session. The SpaceX IPO is also anticipated with the first trade targeting $170 to $175 currently vs the IPO price of $135. . From a technical perspective, the key question is whether buyers can build on the rebound and regain control. While the recent recovery has been encouraging for the bulls, there is still work to do before the charts signal a more convincing move higher.In the video, I break down the key technical levels for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, highlighting the support and resistance areas that are defining the current battle between buyers and sellers. The buyers are making a play, but can they follow through? Watch the video to find out what levels matter most. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 48.2Current conditions 48.4 vs 46.2 expected (prior was 45.8)Expectations 49.3 vs 44.3 expected (prior was 44.1)1-year inflation 4.6% vs 4.8% prior5-year inflation 3.4% vs 3.9% priorI don't know why anyone cares about this report at this point. It's been in the doldrums forever and hasn't predicted any slowdown in consumer spending. It's highly split on political lines and it tripped up the FOMC a few years ago with an illusory jump in inflation expectations that was revised away shortly afterwards.Don't trade on this indicator. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

That's about $2.2 trillion for a market cap, which is utterly ridiculous for a company that's losing money and doesn't have a path to making it. The magic of Musk is something to behold.It will probably be several hours before it opens. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The Iran peace trade is fading today after Trump wrote:The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing. What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth. Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING! Also, their totally rebuffed Drone attack last night against Indian Ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE. They better get their act together, and FAST! President DONALD J. TRUMPHe could clear it all up by simply releasing the text of the agreement.Unfortunately, the market has seen this all before with Trump claiming there is a deal and then it all falls apart in hours. Treasury yields are up 3 bps today and the US dollar is higher. The good news is that Trump isn't blowing it all up yet. I wrote earlier about the terms and how tilted they seemed, basically meeting all the Iran demands. If anything, it's actually heartening that those aren't the terms because it would have been hard for the US and future administrations to stick to that deal.Trump calling Iran 'dishonourable' is rich, considering he bombed and killed Iran's leadership during negotiations just a few months ago. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has been trending higher since June 1, with buyers successfully pushing the pair above both the 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages and keeping it there for most of the advance.Yesterday, the price reached a key swing area target from late March and early April while also testing the natural resistance zone around the 0.8000 level. Sellers initially leaned against that resistance, but it was the announcement of a ceasefire deal that ultimately triggered a sharp move lower. That decline pushed the price below the 100-hour moving average, tilting the bias to the downside in the short term.However, the sellers could not generate enough momentum to break below the 200-hour moving average, currently near 0.7940. Buyers stepped in ahead of that level, helping the pair rebound. The recovery, though, has stalled below the 100-hour moving average at 0.7977, leaving the pair trapped between the two key technical levels.As a result, the bias is currently neutral. The market is off the boil after the recent rally, and traders are looking for the next catalyst. For sellers to gain greater control, the price needs to break below and stay below the 200-hour moving average. Conversely, a move back above the 100-hour moving average would shift the focus back toward the recent highs and the 0.8000 resistance area.In the video, I break down the technical levels guiding USDCHF, highlighting the key risk-defining areas, the targets traders are watching, and what it will take for either buyers or sellers to gain the upper hand. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Let's dive into the state of play in markets today.It's the aftermath of yesterday's announcement from Donald Trump that there is a tentative peace deal with Iran. What's worrisome is that the 14-point plan isn't a win for Trump in any sense and will kick off 60 days of tough nuclear negotiations. The Strait of Hormuz also may not be opened for 30 days, which could further tighten the oil market and Iran may be inclined to slow roll it in order to hold leverage. That said, I can't see them firing on ships in order to stop anyone from the transit.For what it's worth, here are the 14 points that Iran published (with the caveat that they may not be entirely true):Full and immediate cessation of the war on all fronts, including Lebanon Commitment by the United States to the principle of non-interference in Iran’s internal affairs and respect for the country’s sovereignty Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days Resumption of operations in the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, taking into account agreements with Iran Commitment by the United States to withdraw troops from territories bordering IranSuspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and derivatives, as well as full access for Iran to its financial resourcesThe United States and its allies must present a plan to restore Iran worth at least $300 billionWithin 60 days, negotiations must be held to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of all sanctions, as well as UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutionsConfirmation of Iran’s commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and renunciation of nuclear weapons productionCommitment by the United States not to increase the number of troops in the region or impose new sanctions during the negotiationsUnfreezing of $24 billion in Iranian assets within the 60-day period of final negotiations, with half the amount to be provided to Iran before they beginCreation of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement;Approval of the final agreement by a UN Security Council resolutionFinal negotiations will not begin until half of the Iranian assets are unfrozen, oil sanctions are suspended, and the naval blockade is lifted.In any case, the negotiations themselves are unlikely to be a market mover. The only question right now is how quickly Hormuz opens within that 30 day period and when will the agreement be signed. There's chatter the ceremony could be in Geneva on Sunday but that's also Trump's birthday and I'm not sure he would be too keen to cancel his plans in order to fly 6 hours to Switzerland.As for markets, S&P 500 futures are up 31 points and the dollar is moderately stronger. That might reflect some skepticism that the deal will hold or profit taking on a 'sell the fact' trade after weeks of front-running the Trump TACO.Spots to watch include energy stocks and travel stocks. Gold initially rallied strongly but it's down $15 today as it hasn't been able to follow through.The other big event today is the SpaceX IPO. It's a big one and it looks like retail interest is going to make it a winner. It's unusual in that a hard price of $135 was set for pricing shares. Of course, that's not where it will open as bids come in. Because of that, I would expect an instant strong gain and then we will see what happens with the momentum. The retail madness that's ongoing should be helped by the end of the war as well so Musk's timing is great.One thing that I want to highlight again is the nature of expiring lockups for SpaceX shares. It's why I wrote that the real difficulty for the shares will start after Q2 earnings. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

As the North American session gets underway, the U.S. dollar is modestly higher, gaining less than 0.10% against the euro and British pound and about 0.20% versus the Japanese yen.While the dollar remains well below the levels seen following yesterday's stronger-than-expected PPI report helped by the decline following Pres. Trump's announcement that a deal was done, today's price action has been more back-and-forth than directional, and not seen a resumption of the US selling. That indecision has pulled the major currency pairs back into technically neutral territory.The lack of sustained breakout momentum has returned prices to the cluster of key technical levels that have helped define the trading ranges and directional bias for much of the past month. Buyers and sellers continue to battle around those areas, but neither side has yet been able to seize lasting control.Much like the market's hope for progress toward a peace agreement in the Middle East, traders are still waiting for the U.S. dollar to make a decisive move out of its recent ranges. Until that happens, the major pairs remain trapped between competing technical forces.In this video, I break down the technical outlook for the three major currency pairs, highlighting the key levels that are defining the bias, identifying the important risk points, and outlining the targets traders are watching next.In review, Trump declared that a "great settlement" and been reached with Iran to end the three-month war, saying he expects a formal deal to be signed in the coming days (Trump's birthday is on June 14). He also reassured Israel that any agreement will include the removal of Iran's enriched nuclear material. The framework being discussed is a Memorandum of Understanding — not a full peace treaty — that would serve as the foundation for longer-term negotiations. Having said that, even as the deal was being announced, US forces reportedly shot down two Iranian attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz early Friday after Iranian forces reportedly fired on a transiting vessel — a reminder of how volatile the situation remains even during active diplomacy. As is always been the case, a successful deal requires freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the future of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program, reconstruction costs, and sanctions relief. Iran has insisted it retains the right to enrich uranium, while the US is demanding full removal of enriched material. The deal is close but not done. Markets today will be watching closely Friday for any formal signing announcement — a confirmed MOU would likely send oil sharply lower and trigger a significant risk-on rally across equities.In other news, SpaceX is set to make history with what is expected to be the largest IPO ever. The company is reportedly pricing shares at $135, raising roughly $75 billion, and targeting a valuation near $1.77 trillion. The stock is expected to trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. Investor demand has been exceptionally strong, with the offering reportedly oversubscribed and significant participation from both institutional and retail investors.For markets, the IPO could become a major liquidity event and a key test of investor appetite for high-growth, high-valuation companies. Index providers have already signaled that SpaceX could be added quickly to several major benchmarks, potentially creating significant passive fund demand shortly after the listing. US stocks are higher with the NASDAQ currently up about 90 points, the S&P up around 30 points, and the Dow industrial average up 282 pointCrude oil is down -3.05% or $2.67 at $85.04 This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:Iran will not restore Strait of Hormuz status to pre-war level - IRNAThe US-Iran MoU could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva - BBGHere is what the US-Iran deal looks set to be like after another TACO momentIran media says that memorandum of understanding draft still not yet finalisedOil prices plunge after Iran confirms details of the deal with the USThe countdown continues ahead of the Wall Street open, all eyes on SpaceXECB policymaker Nagel says keeping all options open for July meetingECB's Dolenc says current rate level gives enough flexibility to respond to energy shockCore inflation confirmed to have picked up in Germany during MayFrench inflation accelerates in May as services inflation push upSpanish inflation picks up in May, core prices also continue to nudge higherUK economy sees marginal contraction in April as services sector coolsMarkets:WTI crude down 3.5% to $84.60US dollar little changed, keeps steadierEquities stay optimistic, European indices trade over 1% higherS&P 500 futures up 0.5%, Nasdaq futures up 0.5% with eyes on SpaceX debutUS 10-year yields down 0.2 bps to 4.46%Gold down 0.2% to $4,204Bitcoin up 0.4% to $63,631The main story of the session was that Iran has emerged with key details of its deal with the US. And it is either a case of there going to be another major TACO moment or this deal is going to fall apart before it even begins.The details point to many concessions being offered up by the US with the summarised version here. And if so, it is essentially a reset back to 27 February. Tell me, what was the point of this war again?As the details surfaced, markets are cheering on the headlines but not taking things all too far. As a reminder, there will still be another 60 days of negotiations after this. And besides the point, we're still yet to see how Trump can spin this all into a "win".Oil prices are down with WTI crude lower by 3.5% to $84.60. The low earlier touched $83.20 before Iran came out to say that they will still be the ones in charge over the Strait of Hormuz pending any final agreement.Meanwhile, the dollar is keeping steadier after a slight nudge lower on the headlines. EUR/USD is flat again at 1.1575 while USD/JPY sits higher by 0.1% at 160.15 on the day. Besides that, AUD/USD is down 0.1% to 0.7040 on the day.In the equities space, European indices are posting solid gains in looking to wrap up the week. The DAX is up 1.5% with the CAC 40 up 1.7% currently. As for US futures, the mood music remains bright with all eyes on the SpaceX trading debut later today. S&P 500 futures are up 0.5% with Nasdaq futures also up 0.5%.As for precious metals, gold raced higher on the US-Iran news early on but saw gains tempered after. The high touched $4,245 before price is dropping back lower to be down 0.3% on the day at $4,200.Deal or no deal? We can only wait and see. But whatever the case is, just be reminded that it doesn't mean that this is "the end" of the war. For some context, this is how things may unfold with regards to the Strait of Hormuz: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 65 bps (76% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)BoJ: 46 bps (90% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (70% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 35 bps (91% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 24 bps (94% probability of no change at the next meeting)Fed: 18 bps (97% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 12 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 8 bps (99% probability of no change at the next meeting)You can find last week's market pricing hereWe saw a quick dovish repricing almost across the board following President Trump's announcement of a virtual agreement on the Memorandum of Understanding that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The MoU is expected to be signed in the next few days, potentially on Sunday in Geneva. Traders forgot about everything else and just focused on the immediate macroeconomic effects: lower oil prices, lower inflation, lower chances of rate hikes.Looking ahead, the negative supply shock could turn into a strong positive demand shock where we get a boost to economic activity amid easing financial conditions and increased spending. That could eventually require rate hikes anyway, especially in the US, but that will need to be confirmed by the data in the next months. For now, the markets are celebrating. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Iran not to restore Hormuz Strait status to pre-war levelFramework text nearly finalizedText awaits final decisionUnder the MoU with the US, Iran makes no commitment regarding the transfer of management of the Strait of HormuzThe future administration of the strait will be resolved as a regional matter through dialogue and joint decision-making between Tehran and OmanNo agreement is made regarding the nuclear file in the current memorandumNuclear talks will take place within a 60-day period after signingIranian state media IRNA says that Tehran has made no commitment to restore the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war conditions and no commitment regarding any transfer of management of the strait under the agreement. This clarification might change how markets may interpret the latest diplomatic headlines.Until now, the dominant narrative around the MoU was that the deal would deliver a relatively straightforward de-escalation: the US would lift its naval blockade, sanctions relief would begin, and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal commercial traffic within roughly 30 days. That has led to strong risk-on sentiment because it implied the removal of one of the largest energy supply risks. But this news makes things a bit more complicated.Over recent weeks, Iran has repeatedly floated a framework in which the strait would remain technically open but no longer function under the pre-war status quo of near-unrestricted transit passage. Instead, Tehran has discussed a new management system coordinated with Oman, giving Iran significantly more control over maritime traffic.This includes the controversial toll or fee system Iran had been discussing with Muscat. Iranian officials previously suggested ships crossing Hormuz could face transit-related charges based on vessel type, cargo, or navigation services, effectively monetizing control over the waterway. Even when Tehran softened the language from “tolls” to “service charges,” the economic implication remained largely the same: shipping through Hormuz may become more expensive and more politically conditional than before the war. That distinction matters.A full return to pre-war conditions would mean tanker traffic normalizes, war-risk insurance declines, and supply chains resume with minimal friction. But a “managed reopening” under Iranian oversight is something different. Even if ships are allowed through, tolls, routing restrictions, inspection delays, or selective access could keep shipping costs more elevated. Don't get me wrong, this is still much better than no traffic at all, but prices might not drop as much as under no-toll scenario.Iran appears to be signalling that it wants to preserve the most valuable source of leverage it gained during the conflict: control over the world’s most important energy chokepoint. Partial control offers a more sustainable form of pressure. This raises an uncomfortable question about Trump’s latest comments.Trump has claimed the US is satisfied with the MoU and has presented the agreement as a diplomatic success. But if IRNA’s information is accurate, only two explanations seem plausible. The first is that Trump knowingly accepted Iran’s conditions (Big L). The second possibility is more concerning: Trump may not be fully aware about the operational details embedded in the agreement.From Iran’s perspective, the ideal outcome is obvious: obtain sanctions relief, secure frozen assets, end immediate military pressure, and still retain strategic leverage over Hormuz. Iran has little incentive to surrender that leverage completely after demonstrating just how disruptive its control can be.The immediate tail risk is that negotiations fall apart again over the weekend, which might keep risk sentiment more in check heading into the weekend without further clarification from Iran's or US's side. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

I've had my fair share of dealing with the US-Iran copium today and we now have to just wait and see if the deal signed will be the one portrayed by Iran here. It points to the US offering major concessions in what will be another TACO moment.And if so, you have to wonder what was the point of the war then? 105 days. All just so that we return back to the same kind of arrangements that were in place on 27 February before this all started. So much winning.In any case, markets are taking things in stride and feeling more optimistic about the whole thing. Oil prices are down while equities are looking up and set to end the week strong.S&P 500 futures are up 0.6% with Nasdaq futures up 0.5% on the day currently. For Wall Street, pricing in the TACO trade is not the only game in town today. All eyes are on SpaceX as shares are set to make its public trading debut on its IPO, with price set at $135 per share.This will be the biggest-ever IPO, with it raising a record $75 billion on ​the sale of 555.56 million shares. That puts the value of SpaceX at a whopping $1.77 trillion and will rank seventh among US-listed firms when its shares begin trading on the Nasdaq today.There's a lot of emphasis placed on retail trading here with SpaceX deciding to set aside 30% of shares for retail buyers. That is a much larger number than it would be typically (around 5% to 10%).So, that will definitely keep things interesting as retail buyers are more indifferent to the pricing and have been prone to try and "flip" shares upon IPO rather hastily. Hence, that is why they typically get lower allocations.However, just keep in mind that we are seeing major retail brokerages that are participating in this IPO implement some stricter rules this time around.Fidelity is enforcing a 15-day holding period on SpaceX shares but with rather harsh penalties. A first violation of the share flipping restriction will trigger a 6-month ban from future IPO allocations at the brokerage. Then, a second violation would lead to a 1-year suspension.And many other brokerages are also doing the same, including the likes of SoFi and Robinhood.So, just be wary of that when reading into the price action of the SpaceX "launch" today. It is clear that retail investors are buying and they are going to have a big slice of the pie to bite at.As such, the question may not necessarily be how SpaceX shares fare today but rather how it will really hold up in the weeks ahead. The follow through after the first day/week of buying is going to be the key measure here, not so much how strong the demand is today. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Details of the deal hereA memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran could be signed as soon as Sunday in Geneva, according to Bloomberg.Trump unexpectedly called off planned strikes on Iran yesterday and instead announced that Washington had reached the framework of a deal with Tehran (which is exactly the same they've been negotiating on for months). Under the proposed MoU, the US would commit to lifting its naval blockade around Iran, likely within a defined timeframe tied to implementation benchmarks. In exchange, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore shipping conditions to pre-war levels within 30 days, removing one of the biggest supply-side threats facing global energy markets.The Hormuz reopening is the most immediate macroeconomic consequence of the deal as it influences inflation expectations, rate hike pricing and growth outlooks. With shipping flows potentially normalizing over the next month, markets will likely continue to price out the aggressive rate hike expectations.That matters especially for the Federal Reserve. The prolonged elevated oil prices and strong US data had raised fears that the Fed would be forced to raise interest rates to lean against inflation risks. The mere expectation of a restoration of normal traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would substantially reduce oil prices and inflation fears.In the short-term, this is very positive for the global economy as rate hike bets get pared back, inflation worries ease and growth outlook improves. Risk assets are likely to benefit from this backdrop.The problems might come later as this negative supply shock could turn into a strong positive demand shock where we get a boost to economic activity amid easing financial conditions and increased spending. That could eventually require rate hikes anyway, especially in the US, but that will need to be confirmed by the data in the next months. For now, the markets can celebrate... This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

If Iran's version of the draft is to be believed as what will be the finalised version of the deal, then it means that the US is the one who has blinked first in the game of chicken. After having said that a deal is very close to being signed for nearly 40 times, it finally looks like Trump is not simply bluffing this time around.Then again, the moment seems to be coming only after what looks to be another infamous TACO moment on his end.After months of trying, we're essentially going back to square one with the US realising that Iran is just every bit as stubborn as them on the war front. And under the circumstances, the US does not have as much leverage as they thought to get Iran to stop threatening the Strait of Hormuz and also on nuclear arrangements.And so it would seem that Washington has to concede and agree to terms that would favour Tehran instead. As a reminder, these were the four main key red lines preventing a deal in the many weeks before this:With the US now reportedly set to concede on these positions, we then move forward to the next step. That being another 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues.So, this is what the deal would entail and what needs to hold for the next 60 days once signed:US to make a "commitment" to lift its naval blockade (likely to see a timeframe here, I'm guessing 30 days based on the Hormuz call)Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and to allow traffic to get back to pre-war conditions in 30 daysUS to commit to not expand any military presence in the region and/or impose any new sanctionsIran oil sanctions to be liftedA portion of Iran's frozen funds to be released before negotiations beginThe rest are to be released in piecemeal depending on Iran's compliance to the deal and nuclear arrangementsA permanent ceasefire to the war on all fronts, including LebanonIran to reaffirm commitment to not produce any nuclear weapons60 days of negotiations to begin after in reaching a final agreement on nuclear issues - namely the fate of enriched materials and enrichmentBoth sides had been stubborn to not want to concede on their key red lines previously. But seeing this, it is pretty much the US being the one to concede on every position just to get Iran to play ball here. And that includes having to keep a leash on Israel it would seem.The question now is, what happens if there is a breach of any of these in the next 60 days? Or better yet, what if Iran continues to choose to drag things along until they get it all their way just like they did before with the 2015 JCPOA?Is Trump just going to leave everything alone and get over it? Or will his ego be too hurt that he feels the need to respond and escalate things again?For markets, what happens with the Strait of Hormuz will be pivotal. And I'm just afraid that the reality of the situation may not play out as per what the optics of this deal may imply. From before: This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

WTI crude is now down over 4% on the day, accelerating a drop after yesterday's dive lower. The drop yesterday was somewhat arrested near the 100-day moving average (red line). But now, we're seeing a firm break below that and could point to further declines in oil prices after the earlier headlines.Of note, we're seeing price action also break out of its triangle/wedge/flag pattern and that's something that could give sellers added momentum in chasing price to the downside.It will mark the first time since January that oil prices drop back below either of its key daily moving averages. So, that's an important momentum shift in terms of how the price bias is trading right now.The next key support line will be the $80 mark on any further drop from hereon.The reaction comes as Iran reveals the details of the deal/memorandum of understanding that it is looking to agree to with the US.At first glance, the details don't look to be too encouraging as it reveals that Iran has called the US to lift sanctions and also lift its naval blockade. Those are two things that Trump has previously said that they simply will not do until Iran themselves keep their promise on nuclear arrangements.But if we're now hiding behind "commitments" to act in the future while moving forward with a deal to negotiate first, then I guess it's just a matter of semantics now isn't it?In essence, Trump has compromised on his previous positions and opened the door for Iran as well. Taking the L is perhaps the best thing Trump can do for his own image back home at this stage honestly. But even if we do know that, expect him to frame it all as a W as always.In the big picture though, it remains to be seen if this deal/memorandum of understanding can hold up for the next 60 days. And during that period, will Iran really let go of its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz? That will be the more important detail in all of this. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Full report hereECB's Kocher said yesterday's rate hike is intended to help stabilize inflation as the Middle East conflict continues to push up energy and commodity prices.Kocher warned that rising energy costs are weakening consumer purchasing power, discouraging investment, and increasing the risk of second-round inflation effects. However, he noted that inflation is not expected to return to the extreme levels seen in 2022–2023.He stressed that the key objective is to prevent the current energy-driven price shock from becoming permanently embedded in inflation expectations, which could make inflation more persistent.According to the ECB’s latest projections, the conflict is expected to result in higher inflation and weaker economic growth in the Eurozone this year. Future policy decisions will remain meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent, with the ECB considering multiple scenarios based on energy prices and the severity of inflation spillovers.Following Trump's abortion of the planned attacks on Iran and the announcement of a deal, the market pared back ECB rate hike bets and it now sees 36 bps of tightening by year-end compared to 52 bps before the news. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.