Prior 3.75%Bank rate vote 0-7-2 vs 0-7-2 expected (Pill and Greene voted to hike rate by 25 bps)BoE repeated that MPC stand ready to act as necessary to ensure CPI meets 2% target in the medium termBoE cuts inflation outlook for this year, sees slightly faster underlying growth versus April projectionsOutlook for energy prices remains uncertainThe labour market continues to loosen, and signs of a weakening economy could contain inflationary pressuresFull statement hereComing into the meeting, the market was pricing 35 bps of tightening by year-end with 58% chance of a rate hike in September. There's nothing new in the statement as it's basically a copy-pasted version of the one we got in April. Traders kept rate hike bets steady around 35 bps for this year following the decision.From the Minutes:For six members (Andrew Bailey, Sarah Breeden, Swati Dhingra, Clare Lombardelli, Dave Ramsden and Alan Taylor), recent data outturns provided some further evidence that underlying disinflation had been on track pre-conflict. Upside risks to energy prices had receded, although they remained. The higher interest rates facing households and businesses were already acting to reduce inflation over time and therefore a hold in Bank Rate at this meeting was appropriate. There was nevertheless a range of views on how the energy shock might propagate and therefore the policy response that might be required in future. For one member (Catherine L Mann) upside inflation risks were more prominent across possible future outcomes, but an immediate increase in Bank Rate was not required given their view that policy tightening would transmit to the economy rapidly. Two members (Megan Greene and Huw Pill) preferred a 0.25 percentage point increase in Bank Rate at this meeting. These members were less confident in the pace of the underlying disinflation pre-conflict. They were more concerned that households’ and firms’ greater attention to inflation outturns than in the past would lead to larger second-round effects for a given energy price profile. And they noted that the tightening in financial conditions could reverse in the absence of an increase in Bank Rate. Given significant uncertainty about the extent of second-round effects, they preferred to raise rates as part of a risk management strategy. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

In the Fed preview yesterday, I mentioned that Warsh was going to be the noise, while the Board the signal. In fact, the only takeaway from the decision was the more hawkish dot plot as the statement didn't contain anything and Fed Chair Warsh refrained from giving forward guidance.The median dot plot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term. The US dollar surged across the board on the more hawkish than expected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 40 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 36% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”. Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. My expectation is that the negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock now that the war ended and oil prices dropped significantly. I think that's going to boost economic activity further and the markets are already positioning for that scenario. With the Fed's tightening bias, it's going to be harder for the stock market to rally as hard as it did in the past two months (the risk/reward is skewed to the downside). At best, I expect prices to stay in a wide range, at worst, a correction to January 2026 levels. This should also result in a bear flattening with short-term yields rising faster than long-term ones as long-term yields are going to start looking for signs of economic slowdown to position for eventual rate cuts. Therefore, I expect long-term bonds to finally bottom for good in the next months. The US dollar should remain bid until we reach the peak in rate hikes pricing. Precious metals are going to have a hard time amid increasing real yields, and a potential selloff in the stock market could make things even uglier. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWGold sold off yesterday as the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year in the dot plot, effectively adopting a tightening bias in the short-term. Following the first spike lower, the price consolidated a bit as traders waited for Fed Chair Warsh’s first press conference. Once everyone realised that he wouldn’t add anything new and wouldn’t give any forward guidance, the losses extended as the bearish bets increased on higher real yields. The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”. Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. Traders are now pricing in a 30% chance of a rate hike at the next meeting in July, which rises to 65% for September (the most likely scenario). There’s a total of 37 bps of tightening priced in by year-end compared to just 18 bps before the Fed’s decision. This should keep weighing on gold at least until the next set of economic data.As mentioned previously, the risk now is that the negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock as the conflict ends and oil prices drop significantly. That could boost economic activity further requiring rate hikes anyway. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that gold rejected the previous swing low around the 4,360 level and dropped on the hawkish Fed decision. The price is now testing the major upward trendline with the buyers stepping in with a defined risk below it to target a break above the 4,360 level and extend the rally into the 4,600 level next. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking below the trendline to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we can see the positive gap was closed following the selloff after the Fed’s decision. The price bounced on the support zone around the 4,240 level as dip-buyers stepped in to position for a rally into new highs. The sellers will want to see the price breaking the support to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but if the price gets stuck in the 4,240-4,360 range, we can expect the sellers to keep stepping in around the resistance and the downward trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will need a break higher to open the door for new highs. The red lines define the average daily range for today. UPCOMING CATALYSTSToday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Energy prices still determined by war situationIf necessary our readiness to intervene in forex market is higher, difficult to say if it is more or less than beforeWe look at the whole situation when it comes to interventions, the franc has weakened a bit since the last meetingMany factors affect the exchange rate, the interest rate differential to ECB and our increased readiness to interveneGeopolitical, trade uncertainty is highThe future development depends on the situation in the Middle EastCan't be ruled out that this de-escalation in the Middle East is just temporaryWe don't give forward guidance, we decide from meeting to meetingSecond-round inflationary effects not seen in SwitzerlandMonetary conditions are weaker than in MarchAt the moment it is not necessary to act on interest rateDuring the SNB press conference, Chairman Schlegel was asked why they added "if necessary" in the line saying "readiness to intervene in forex markets is higher". Was it because they see less urgency given the positive developments in the Middle East?Schlegel dodged the question by saying that "if necessary their readiness to intervene in forex market is higher, difficult to say if it is more or less than before". This has led to more weakness in the Swiss franc.In the prior statement, they said "SNB's willingness to intervene in the foreign exchange market has increased" but today they added "if necessary" which reads somewhat less "hawkish". This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior 0.00%SNB sees 2026 inflation at 0.6% (previously 0.5%)SNB sees 2027 inflation at 0.6% (previously 0.5%)SNB sees 2028 inflation at 0.7% (previously 0.6%)SNB sees 2026 growth at 1% (previously 1%)SNB sees 2027 growth at 1.5% (previously 1.5%)If necessary, readiness to intervene in forex markets is higherMedium-term inflationary pressure is virtually unchanged compared with the last monetary policy assessmentSNB's monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and it supports economic developmentThe baseline scenario remains subject to high uncertainty, above all because the situation in the Middle East is still fragileIn the medium term, the expected improvement in the global economy will provide growth impetusThe main risk to the economic outlook for Switzerland is developments in the global economy. In particular, the situation in the Middle East could worsen again and curb global economic activity more stronglyFull statement hereThe Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its policy rate unchanged at 0.00% as widely expected reiterating confidence that current monetary settings remain sufficient to preserve price stability while maintaining flexibility to respond to external shocks.The central bank slightly upgraded its inflation outlook across the forecast horizon, though price pressures remain subdued. The SNB now expects inflation to average 0.6% in 2026, up from the previous forecast of 0.5%, while projections for 2027 were also raised to 0.6% from 0.5%. Inflation for 2028 is now seen at 0.7%, compared with 0.6% previously.Despite these upward revisions, policymakers emphasized that medium-term inflationary pressures are virtually unchanged from the previous monetary policy assessment. The SNB said its current stance remains appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and to support economic development.Growth forecasts were left unchanged, suggesting the SNB sees the domestic economy on a stable trajectory. Swiss GDP is projected to expand by 1.0% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, matching prior estimates.One of the key takeaways from the decision was the SNB’s reaffirmation that it stands ready to act in currency markets, with policymakers stressing that their readiness to intervene in foreign exchange markets has increased. This underscores the central bank’s continued sensitivity to Swiss franc strength, which remains a major channel through which imported disinflation could intensify.The central bank acknowledged that global conditions remain highly uncertain. The SNB noted that its baseline scenario is subject to high uncertainty, particularly because the situation in the Middle East remains fragile.While policymakers still expect an eventual improvement in global growth to support Switzerland’s export-oriented economy over the medium term, they warned that renewed escalation in the region could significantly weaken global activity. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

TMGM today announced a new collaboration with OG Esports, marking TMGM’s first esports campaign. As the Official CFD Partner of OG's Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2 teams, TMGM will engage esports audiences through fan-focused digital activations, exclusive rewards and branded content.The collaboration reflects TMGM's commitment to engaging digitally native audiences through performance-driven communities. The initiative highlights similarities between competitive gaming and financial markets, where preparation, precision, speed and resilience drive success."Success, whether in financial markets or competitive gaming, is built on preparation, resilience and the ability to adapt in a fast-changing environment. These qualities are deeply embedded in both TMGM and OG Esports," said Nick Yang, Chief Commercial Officer of TMGM."We are pleased to collaborate with an organisation that has built a strong reputation within the esports industry, and we look forward to delivering meaningful experiences that resonate with audiences around the world."Throughout the campaign, fans can look forward to cashback rewards, signed OG Dota 2 and Counter-Strike 2 team jerseys, branded content and social media activations.TMGM's presence will be integrated across OG's website, social channels and streaming platforms.Through the collaboration, TMGM aims to deliver meaningful experiences and lasting value to OG's global community."OG has a global fanbase that deserves the very best experiences. That's why we've partnered with TMGM. As a leading CFD trading platform, TMGM will offer our community new ways to engage both through trading and unique OG experiences. We're proud to support TMGM's first step into esports and look forward to building a strong partnership that delivers lasting value for our fans," said Xavier Oswald, Chief Executive Officer of OG Esports.About TMGMFounded in 2013 in Sydney, Australia, TMGM Group is the Official Regional Partner of Chelsea Football Club. As a broker providing global financial product trading, TMGM is regulated by ASIC(Australia), VFSC (Vanuatu), FSC Mauritius, and FSA (Seychelles).Disclaimer: Investing in leveraged products carries high risks and is not suitable for all investors. You have no interest in the underlying asset. Read the Client Agreement and other disclosure documents set forth on our website. The above information is provided by TMGM Group (Trademax Australia Limited, ABN 76 162 331 311, AFSL 436416, Trademax Global Markets (SE) Limited, FSA licence number SD224, Trademax Global Limited, VFSC 40356 & Trademax Global Markets (International) Pty Ltd, Company No. 195323, Mauritius Investment Dealer Licence No. GB22201012). This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Bitcoin is trying to repair after its recent sharp pullback, but I am not treating this as a clean bullish reversal yet. The short-term bounce is constructive, especially after the recovery from the $59,100 area, but the key level I cannot ignore is $61,775. If Bitcoin loses that zone, the bullish repair case weakens quickly.Key takeaways for crypto traders and investorsCurrent read: Bitcoin has bounced over the past week, but the larger trend remains damaged. Key level: $61,775 is the major line in the sand because it is the point of control from the recent consolidation range. Bullish defense zone: Bulls ideally need to protect the $63,200 to $63,850 area. Market context: Bitcoin is up over one week, but still deeply negative over longer timeframes. Relative strength: Bitcoin is not leading crypto this week, with several altcoins outperforming BTC. My Bitcoin technical analysis videoWhat does the Bitcoin chart show today?On my Bitcoin spot chart, the important recent low came near $59,100, from Friday, June 5. That area created a possible double-bottom structure, which is why many traders are now asking whether the dip has already completed.I also have a regression channel on the chart, using two standard deviations on each side. Once Bitcoin broke below that structure, it activated what looked like a bear flag. Since then, price has tried to repair higher and has retraced back toward the 20 EMA, a widely followed moving average.That is the current debate.Is Bitcoin building a real reversal, or is this only a normal bounce after a breakdown?For me, the answer depends on how price behaves around the nearby value zoneBitcoin has bounced, but the bigger picture is still carrying damageBitcoin has managed to put in a decent one-week bounce, up roughly 5%. That is not nothing. After the recent drop, even a modest green patch can quickly bring back the “was that the dip?” crowd.But zooming out, the chart still has some bruises.Over the past month, Bitcoin is still down about 16%. Over 6 months and year-to-date, it is down roughly 27%. Over one year, the damage is closer to 39%. So yes, the one-week bounce matters, but I would not confuse it with a full bullish regime shift yet.This is more like Bitcoin has stood up after getting knocked down. Good. Encouraging. But it still needs to prove that it can walk properly before we start talking about a real trend reversal.Bitcoin is not exactly the star of the crypto show this weekAnother thing I noticed is that Bitcoin is not leading the crypto board this week.Some of the stronger movers are coming from the altcoin side. XLM and UNI are the eye-catchers, with very strong one-week gains. ZEC and AAVE also showed solid relative strength, while SOL and ETH were modestly positive.Bitcoin, meanwhile, was slightly negative on the relative performance snapshot. That does not automatically make Bitcoin bearish, but it does tell me that the short-term excitement is not centered on BTC leadership right now.And on the weaker side, names like TAO, ICP, ADA, DOGE, and BNB were lagging. So the crypto market is not moving as one clean block. There is rotation, selectivity, and some clear winners and losers.For Bitcoin bulls, stronger BTC leadership would help. If Bitcoin starts outperforming while holding above the key value areas, the bullish repair case becomes more convincing. But for now, I still see this as a repair attempt, not a confirmed takeover by buyers.Bitcoin bullish and bearish scenariosThis is the practical trading map I am using now.Could Bitcoin still return toward $100,000?If Bitcoin completes a real bullish reversal from this area, I do think the upside can become meaningful. A move back toward the higher zones, potentially even closer to $100,000, becomes more realistic only if buyers first prove themselves at the current decision area.But that is not confirmed yet.The market still needs to show that this bounce is more than a retracement into the 20 EMA and value resistance. The next few sessions are important because Bitcoin is sitting near a technical junction, not a random price area.What should traders watch next?The macro picture is rapidly shifting, forcing active traders to quickly re-evaluate their exposure as monetary policy uncertainty injects heavy volatility across key asset classes. We are seeing a distinct shift in market microstructure after US stocks fell on a more hawkish Fed policy signal, which triggered a broad sell-off across equities as market participants priced in tighter liquidity conditions and higher-for-longer interest rates. This aggressive defensive rotation was further exacerbated as Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh left markets guessing following a Fed framework overhaul, a strategic pivot that has raised significantly more questions than answers regarding forward guidance and systemic liquidity. For short-term order flow, this means trailing VWAP levels and monitoring key institutional support zones will be absolutely critical to confirm whether this downside momentum has room to run or if a relief bounce is building.But focused on the bitcoin chart as guidance, the main thing I am watching is whether Bitcoin can defend the $63,200 to $63,850 zone and avoid a deeper rotation back toward $61,775.If Bitcoin holds and pushes higher, the repair remains alive.If Bitcoin loses $61,775, I would become much more cautious on the bullish case because that would suggest buyers are not strong enough to defend the main fair-value area from the recent consolidation.This is still a decision zone. It is not the place to assume certainty. The chart is giving traders clear levels, and the next reaction around those levels should tell us a lot about whether Bitcoin is repairing or preparing for another leg lower.Educational note: This analysis is a scenario map, not financial advice. Bitcoin can move quickly, and traders should manage risk according to their own plan, timeframe, and account size. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Prior 5.0%Employment change 100k vs 75k expectedPrior 148kAverage weekly earnings +4.4% vs +4.0% 3m/y expectedPrior +4.1% (revised to +4.4%)Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.2% 3m/y expectedPrior +3.4%May payrolls change +2kPrior -100k (revised to -53k)This is a good report with data beating expectations across the board, and more worryingly for the BoE, wage growth firming up again. The British Pound strengthened following the jobs data release as traders will likely bring forward rate hike probabilities (though not that much).Keep in mind that with the end of the US-Iran war we can expect things to get even better in the next months. The BoE will likely keep the door open for tightening if necessary as the chances for rate cuts in 2026 look pretty much nil. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1500 (EUR 13.48 bn)USD/JPY161.00 (US$ 1.89 bn)160.50 (US$ 1.49 bn)160.00 (US$ 1.72 bn)GBP/USD1.3400 (GBP 698.38 mn)1.3250 (GBP 549.56 mn)USD/CHF0.8000 (US$ 431.88 mn)0.7930 (US$ 498.29 mn)AUD/USD0.7100 (AUD 1.76 bn)0.7050 (AUD 2.47 bn)0.6990 (AUD 1.22 bn)NZD/USD0.5890 (NZD 514.43 mn)EUR/GBP0.8975 (EUR 814.98 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes.RELATED ARTICLES:For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have the UK employment report and the SNB and BoE rate decisions. The UK employment report is expected to show 75K jobs added in the three months to April with the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0%. The last report showed the unemployment rate ticking higher with a significant drop in payrolls for April, although the ONS noted that the early April estimate was more uncertain because of the change of tax year.The SNB is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0%. There shouldn't be anything new as the SNB repeated countless times that the bar for negative rates remains very high. The central bank will likely continue to reiterate the "increased willingness to intervene in FX" when necessary.The BoE is expected to hold the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% with a 7-2 vote split. The recent economic data has been benign with headline and core inflation metrics coming in below estimates and the labour market data continuing to show weakness. The most important development though was the end of the US-Iran war and the quick drop in oil prices with Brent now trading below 80/bbl, which is way below the 108/bbl average in BoE's optimistic forecast. The central bank will likely maintain optionality in the statement but I think there's a good chance of the vote split to err on the "dovish" side with an unanimous hold. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we only have the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 225K vs 229K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1789K vs 1795K prior. The US jobs data has been solid for months and the end of the war can only improve things further on positive business and consumer sentiment. I don't expect much reaction to the data unless we get big deviations. CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (hawkish - voter)07:00 GMT/03:00 ET - ECB's Kocher (neutral - voter)12:00 GMT/08:00 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Warsh leaves markets guessing as Fed framework overhaul raises more questions than answersChina rolls out third trade-in fund tranche as weak retail data keeps stimulus pressure onJapan's Kihara flags weak yen household burden but offers no fresh intervention signalApple warns memory chip crunch makes price rises unavoidable, Cook tells WSJPBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8130 (vs. estimate at 6.7752)Analysts split on Fed path after June hold, with December hike odds near 50%CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswindsBrazil central bank cuts rates but warns fiscal stimulus may blunt monetary policySpaceX stock analysis after IPOJapan's 94% Middle East oil dependence leaves firms deeply exposed even as war winds downBrent could top $130 if strait never fully reopens, Goldman warnsNew Zealand Q1 GDP 0.8% q/q (0.9% expected) and 1.5% y/y (1.1% expected)Iran draws a red line on the deal. Attack Lebanon and its off.Iran-US MOU signed but Baghaei fires warning on missiles, uranium and Hormuz feesIran confirms MoU with the US has been agreed to and finalised. Both sides have signed.Warsh rewrites the Fed playbook as FOMC holds rates and signals hikes aheadIran signals permanent Hormuz changes as $300bn reconstruction deal confirmedUS stocks fall as Fed signals a more hawkish policyinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Warsh leans heavily into the inflation mandateSummary:US-Iran MOU formally signed: Trump at Versailles, Pezeshkian in Tehran; 14-point agreement now in effectOil dribbled lower on the signing; gold clawed back some post-Fed lossesNew Zealand Q1 GDP: 0.8% q/q, 1.5% y/y; NZD/USD crept higher on broad USD softnessJapan's Kihara delivered standard verbal intervention; USD/JPY unmoved, holding around 160.50China NDRC announced third consumer goods trade-in tranche of 62.5 bln yuan by end-JuneNikkei 225 surged past 71,000 for the first time; Topix reached 4,069The headline of the Asia-Pacific session was the formal signing of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, bringing the framework agreement to end the Middle East conflict into legal effect. President Trump signed his copy of the 14-point document during a dinner at the Palace of Versailles, with a photograph of the signed agreement transmitted to Tehran and the mediating countries. Iranian President Pezeshkian signed separately. Oil prices edged modestly lower on the news, with markets having largely priced the outcome. Gold recovered some ground after Wednesday's hawkish Fed-driven selloff.New Zealand's Q1 GDP delivered a beat on the annual measure at 1.5% against an expected 1.1%, though the quarterly print of 0.8% fell short of the RBNZ's 1.0% forecast. The NZD crept higher but the move was modest, driven more by broad dollar softness across the majors than by the data itself.Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara ran through the standard FX watchfulness script, acknowledging the household burden of yen weakness without offering anything that moved the market. USD/JPY held around 160.50.The session's standout market move was in Japanese equities. The Nikkei 225 broke above 71,000 for the first time on record, with the broader Topix reaching 4,069, as the Versailles signing and a softer dollar provided the constructive backdrop. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The jump in September hike probability from 30% to above 50% after the decision reflects the dot plot shift rather than any clarity from Warsh himself, which is precisely the problem for rates markets. Without a framework explaining how the committee reasons about inflation and growth, every data print becomes a binary event and volatility around CPI and payrolls releases will stay elevated. BNP Paribas is the most aggressive on the street, expecting three hikes beginning in December that would reverse all of last year's cuts. The task forces may serve as a consensus-building device within the committee as much as an operational overhaul, buying Warsh time to bring a divided room around to his views. Until his framework becomes legible, the market is effectively pricing a black box.--- September Fed hike odds topped 50% after Warsh's debut but analysts warn he stripped away not just forward guidance but any explanation of how the committee now reasons about policy. Summary: Source: Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal (gated)September hike probability rose above 50% after the decision, up from around 30% the previous day, per CME Group futures pricingJPMorgan's chief US economist said Warsh discarded not just rate predictions but any account of the committee's reasoning frameworkBlackRock's Rick Rieder called the meeting the start of a new era, arguing less communication could reduce volatility if it builds confidenceBNP Paribas expects three hikes beginning in December, reversing all of last year's cutsAnalysts remain unable to determine whether Warsh is an inflation hawk or a sympathiser of lower ratesTask forces seen by some as a device to buy time and rebuild trust with a committee whose decisions Warsh had spent years criticising Kevin Warsh's debut as Federal Reserve chairman left investors with higher rate hike probabilities and lower certainty about how to price the path ahead, as the new chair made good on his long-standing argument that the Fed says too much while offering markets little in return.The probability of a hike by September jumped above 50% after the decision, up from around 30% the day before, driven by the hawkish dot plot and Warsh's unambiguous commitment to returning inflation to 2%. But Warsh himself remained, as one veteran described him, a black box.JPMorgan's chief US economist Michael Feroli drew a distinction that cut to the heart of the problem. Withholding predictions about the next rate move is defensible. Withholding the framework by which the committee reasons about a hotter economy or rising prices is something else. That is not forward guidance, Feroli said. That is having a framework. By the end of the news conference, he said he was no closer to understanding how the committee now conducts its deliberations.Opinion on the overhaul was divided. BlackRock's Rick Rieder, whom President Trump had considered for the chairmanship, called the meeting the dawn of a new era, arguing that less communication could reduce volatility over time if it builds confidence in the Fed's resolve. BNP Paribas took the most aggressive rate view on the street, expecting three hikes beginning in December that would reverse all of last year's cuts.Others framed the task forces as a political as much as an operational exercise, a way for Warsh to build consensus within a committee whose decisions he had spent years criticising before taking the top job. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The timing of the third tranche announcement, following weak retail sales data earlier this week (May retail sales falling 0.6%, the first decline since the pandemic), signals Beijing is prepared to sustain the trade-in program as a demand floor rather than wind it down as initially suggested. The 820 billion yuan in driven sales is a meaningful headline but the underlying retail trend remains soft, and the marginal impact of successive tranches is likely diminishing. For commodity markets, a sustained Chinese consumption recovery would provide demand support that has been conspicuously absent during the Middle East supply shock, Goldman Sachs having already credited China's demand destruction as the primary reason oil has not breached triple digits. Any genuine pickup in Chinese consumer durables spending would therefore carry implications beyond domestic equities into energy and industrial metals.--- China's state planner says two batches of consumer goods trade-in funds totalling 125 bln yuan have driven over 820 bln yuan in sales, with a third tranche of 62.5 bln yuan due by end-June. Summary:Two batches of consumer goods trade-in funds totalling 125 bln yuan have been issuedThe scheme has driven related goods sales of over 820 bln yuanA third tranche of 62.5 bln yuan will be issued by end-JuneThe announcement follows weaker-than-expected retail sales data released earlier this week, maintaining pressure on Beijing to support domestic consumption China's state planner has announced a third tranche of consumer goods trade-in funds worth 62.5 billion yuan, to be released by the end of June, as Beijing sustains its push to underpin domestic consumption following a weak retail sales print earlier this week.The National Development and Reform Commission said two earlier batches totalling 125 billion yuan had driven over 820 billion yuan in related goods sales, a multiplier the government is pointing to as evidence the scheme is working. The third disbursement brings the total fund commitment to 187.5 billion yuan.The announcement lands in a context that complicates the optimistic read. Retail sales data released earlier this week came in below expectations, suggesting consumer demand remains fragile despite the stimulus pipeline. The trade-in scheme, which subsidises purchases of consumer durables including home appliances and electronics, has provided a measurable sales impulse but has not yet translated into a durable recovery in discretionary spending.The broader significance extends into energy markets. Goldman Sachs this week identified China's 4 to 5 million barrel per day reduction in crude imports as the single most important reason oil prices have not reached triple digits during the Middle East conflict. A genuine revival in Chinese consumer and industrial activity would alter that demand picture materially, adding a new variable to an already uncertain oil price outlook as Hormuz reopening negotiations continue. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The remarks follow the standard Japanese official playbook and are unlikely to move the yen in isolation. The notable addition was Kihara's explicit acknowledgement that a weak yen, while supportive of corporate profits, increases the burden on households, a framing that edges slightly toward the dovish side of the intervention debate by validating the domestic cost argument. However, without a specific level reference or an escalation in language, the statement carries no actionable threat. Markets will continue to treat Japanese FX rhetoric as noise until accompanied by Finance Ministry involvement or a coordinated BoJ signal. The yen's next meaningful catalyst is more likely to come from the Fed's data-driven path under Warsh or the next BoJ policy meeting than from cabinet secretary commentary.--- Japan's chief cabinet secretary Kihara said Tokyo is watching FX moves closely and stands ready to act, while noting the weak yen raises household burdens even as it supports corporate profits. Summary: Source: Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Kihara, remarks to media, 17 June 2026No comment on specific FX levelsAlways ready to take necessary action on forexWatching FX moves closelyWeak yen helps corporate profits but increases burden on householdsWill guide economic and fiscal policy as appropriate Japan's chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Kihara delivered the standard suite of FX caution remarks on Wednesday evening, declining to comment on specific currency levels while reaffirming Tokyo's readiness to act if necessary.The remarks contained no escalation in tone and no reference to a specific exchange rate threshold, leaving the yen effectively unmoved. Kihara's observation that a weak yen supports corporate profits while simultaneously increasing the burden on households was the most substantive element, a dual acknowledgement that has become more politically sensitive as domestic consumption remains under pressure from elevated energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict.The formulation stops well short of a direct intervention signal. Japanese authorities have historically reserved their strongest language for periods of sharp, one-sided moves, and the current round of weakness does not appear to have triggered the urgency that precedes actual market operations. The Finance Ministry, whose involvement typically marks a more serious escalation, was absent from Wednesday's commentary.With the Federal Reserve now operating without forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh, the yen's trajectory is increasingly hostage to US data outcomes rather than Japanese rhetoric. Until the BoJ signals its own next move or the dollar path clarifies, Tokyo's verbal interventions are likely to remain just that. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

A price increase on the iPhone, the world's best-selling consumer electronics device, will draw immediate Washington scrutiny even though memory and storage carry a limited weighting in the CPI basket. Morgan Stanley's estimate of a 15% price bump across smartphones and PCs this year adds a sticky, goods-driven inflation impulse that complicates the Fed's already difficult read on whether current price pressures are transitory. Memory chip makers including Micron, SK Hynix and Kioxia are the direct beneficiaries, with shares already up 800% to 4,600% over the past year. Apple's willingness to deploy its balance sheet to secure supply, short of building its own factories, may provide some floor under its margins but is unlikely to match the three-to-five year prepayment deals AI hyperscalers are locking in.--- Apple CEO Tim Cook says price increases are unavoidable as AI demand has quadrupled memory chip costs, with Morgan Stanley estimating a 15% shortfall in consumer tech supply by 2027. Summary: Source: Tim Cook interview with The Wall Street Journal (gated)Cook told the WSJ price increases are unavoidable, describing the memory crunch as a hundred-year floodAI hyperscaler demand has quadrupled DRAM and NAND prices since last year; TechInsights expects further increases into 2027Morgan Stanley estimates memory wafers for consumer tech will fall 15% short of demand by 2027 as suppliers prioritise AIPassing costs through at current margins would add around $270 to the next iPhone Pro, per TechInsightsCook said Apple is willing to use its balance sheet to help increase supply but ruled out building its own memory factoriesMorgan Stanley forecasts a 15% price increase across smartphones and PCs in the US this year Apple will raise prices on its products as surging memory and storage costs make absorbing them unsustainable, Chief Executive Tim Cook has told The Wall Street Journal, warning the situation had become a hundred-year flood unlike anything he had seen in over four decades in the electronics supply chain.Demand from AI companies for high-bandwidth memory has quadrupled the cost of both DRAM and NAND chips since last year, squeezing consumer electronics makers who now compete for supply against hyperscalers signing three-to-five year prepayment agreements. Morgan Stanley estimates that memory wafers available for consumer technology will fall up to 15% short of demand by 2027 as chipmakers including Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron redirect capacity toward AI customers.TechInsights calculates that passing through current cost increases while maintaining Apple's profit margins would add around $270 to the price of the next iPhone Pro model. Apple's next major launch is expected in September with the iPhone 18 lineup, though price increases on Macs and iPads could come sooner.Cook said Apple is willing to deploy its balance sheet to help secure supply and called for all options to be examined, including a review of national security restrictions on Chinese memory suppliers. He ruled out building Apple's own memory factories.The broader impact extends well beyond Apple. Hewlett-Packard, Dell and Nintendo have already raised prices, and Morgan Stanley forecasts a 15% average price increase across smartphones and PCs in the US this year. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. More here on the process.Injects 248bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The divergence between a hold-all-year base case and a near-coin-flip December hike probability reflects the genuine uncertainty Warsh has introduced by removing forward guidance. Without a Fed-provided path, each inflation and payrolls print now carries more weight, and the range of analyst outcomes will widen further if energy prices remain volatile. The balance sheet task force ranking second in priority is a signal worth watching: any move toward accelerating quantitative tightening would tighten financial conditions independently of rate action and compound the impact of a December hike if one materialises. AI-driven capital expenditure as a sustaining force for US growth adds a structural dimension to the hawkish risk scenario that goes beyond the current energy shock. The net effect is a rates market that will remain sensitive and prone to repricing on every major data release through the second half of the year.Earlier:CITIC Securities sees Fed on hold all year as Warsh faces political & inflation crosswinds--- Analysts are divided on the Fed's next move after June's hold, with one assigning near 50% odds to a December hike and another warning that AI-led growth could prompt tightening next year. Summary:Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the June meeting; dot plot shifted hawkish with the mean projecting one hike this yearOne analyst maintains a hold through September, assigns roughly 50% probability to a December hike, and sees the possibility of two cumulative hikes by end of 2027A second analyst maintains a no-hike, no-cut call for 2026 but warns the risk of a hike in 2027 has risenBoth note Warsh's decision to strip forward guidance and simplify the statement, reducing direct Fed-market interventionFive task forces announced covering communications, balance sheet, data, productivity and labour, and the inflation framework; the balance sheet review ranked second, signalling quantitative tightening remains a live considerationSustained US growth driven by AI-led capital expenditure flagged as a potential trigger for future tightening Two securities firms have published diverging but broadly cautious assessments of the Federal Reserve's policy path following the June meeting, with one placing near-even odds on a December rate hike and the other holding a no-move call for 2026 while flagging rising hike risk into next year.Both analyses centre on the same set of facts. The Fed left its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh significantly simplified the post-meeting statement, removing forward guidance entirely and signalling that markets should price policy on incoming data rather than Fed projections. Five task forces were announced to examine communications, the balance sheet, data sourcing, productivity and labour, and the inflation framework.The dot plot delivered the hawkish surprise, with the mean projection pointing to one hike this year, underpinned by firmer employment and persistent inflation.One analyst maintains that the Fed will hold through September and assigns roughly 50% probability to a December move, with the possibility of two cumulative hikes by the end of 2027. The other holds a no-hike, no-cut view for this year but acknowledges the risk of tightening next year has risen materially, citing AI-driven capital expenditure as a potential source of sustained US growth that could justify future action.Both flag the task force structure as significant. The balance sheet review ranking second in priority suggests quantitative tightening remains a core policy tilt, one that could tighten financial conditions independently of any rate decision. With forward guidance gone, the burden on incoming data has increased sharply, and the range of plausible outcomes for the second half of 2026 is now unusually wide. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

CITIC's hold call pushes against the market's current lean toward an October hike, creating a divergence worth monitoring as the US-Iran MOU beds in and energy-driven inflation pressure eases. If the geopolitical premium in oil continues to unwind, the inflation case for hiking weakens and the roughly 50-50 FOMC split that currently gives hike risk its credibility may shift toward the chair's position. The removal of forward guidance means markets must now read incoming data rather than Fed signals, adding volatility to rate pricing around each CPI and payrolls release. White House political dynamics add a further layer of complexity: a Fed that hikes into an election-sensitive economy risks friction with the administration, a consideration CITIC explicitly factors into its call. CITIC Securities maintains its call for the Fed to hold rates unchanged through 2026, arguing Warsh faces political constraints and that the US-Iran deal will ease the inflation pressure driving hawkish dot-plot bets. Summary:Fed held rates at 3.5%-3.75% at the June meeting, as expectedWarsh shortened the statement and stripped forward guidance, telling markets to price on incoming dataDot plot delivered a hawkish shock; FOMC currently split roughly 50-50 on whether to hike this yearCITIC argues Warsh will not support a hike given White House political constraints and easing energy inflation pressure from the US-Iran MOUThe committee split is expected to converge toward the chair's positionCITIC maintains its call for rates to remain unchanged through the end of 2026 CITIC Securities is maintaining its call for the Federal Reserve to hold its policy rate unchanged through the remainder of 2026, arguing that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces a combination of political constraints and fading inflation pressure that will prevent the hawkish dot plot from translating into an actual hike.The Fed left its benchmark rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the June meeting, in line with expectations. Warsh used the occasion to strip the post-meeting statement of forward guidance and cut it to around 130 words, explicitly directing markets to price policy on incoming economic data rather than a Fed-provided path. The move acknowledged that current data are lagging and that the policy signal should come from conditions rather than committee projections.The dot plot nonetheless delivered a hawkish surprise, with the median year-end funds rate projection rising to 3.8% and the committee splitting roughly 50-50 on whether a hike is warranted this year. Market pricing shifted toward an October move. CITIC's analysis takes a different view.The firm argues that progress toward the US-Iran memorandum of understanding should ease the geopolitically driven energy and inflation pressures that have provided the primary justification for tightening. With that tailwind for hawks fading, and with Warsh operating under political constraints from the White House, CITIC does not expect the chair to throw his weight behind a hike. Given that FOMC splits historically tend to converge toward the chair's position, the firm sees the 50-50 split as unstable and likely to resolve in favour of a hold.CITIC therefore keeps its year-end rate call unchanged: no move in 2026.CITIC Securities is China's largest investment bank by most measures, headquartered in Beijing and listed in both Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is majority owned by CITIC Group, one of China's largest state-owned conglomerates, and operates across investment banking, asset management, brokerage and research. Its macro and rates research is closely watched across Asian financial markets as a bellwether for how Chinese institutional investors are reading global monetary policy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The People’s Bank of China is due to set the daily USD/CNY reference rate at around 0115 GMT (2115 US Eastern time), a fixing that remains one of the most closely watched signals in Asian foreign exchange markets. China operates a managed floating exchange rate system, under which the renminbi (yuan) is allowed to trade within a prescribed band around a central reference rate, or midpoint, set each trading day by the PBOC. The current trading band permits the currency to move plus or minus 2% from the official midpoint during onshore trading hours. Each morning, the PBOC determines the midpoint based on a range of inputs. These include the previous day’s closing price, movements in major currencies, particularly the US dollar, broader international FX conditions, and domestic economic considerations such as capital flows, growth momentum and financial stability objectives. The midpoint is not a purely mechanical calculation, allowing policymakers discretion to guide market expectations. Once the midpoint is announced, onshore USD/CNY is free to trade within the allowable band. If market pressures push the yuan toward either edge of that range, the central bank may step in to smooth volatility. Intervention can take the form of direct buying or selling of yuan, adjustments to liquidity conditions, or guidance through state-owned banks. As a result, the daily fixing is often interpreted as a policy signal rather than just a technical reference point. A stronger-than-expected CNY midpoint is typically read as a sign the PBOC is leaning against depreciation pressure, while a weaker fixing for the CNY can indicate tolerance for a softer currency, often in response to dollar strength or domestic economic headwinds.In periods of heightened global volatility, such as shifts in US rate expectations, trade tensions or capital flow pressures, the fixing takes on added significance. For investors, it provides insight into Beijing’s currency priorities, balancing competitiveness, capital stability and financial market confidence. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The unanimous cut was fully priced and the BRL reaction will hinge on the tone around future easing rather than the decision itself. The explicit flagging of fiscal stimulus as an inflation upside risk is a hawkish signal that limits how far Copom can ease ahead of October's election without undermining its credibility. Rising inflation expectations across 2026, 2027 and 2028 horizons suggest the market is already questioning the bank's ability to anchor prices. Capital Economics sees only 50 basis points of further cuts across the next four meetings, a notably shallower path than earlier in the cycle. El Nino weather risks and a potential two-day working week bill add further supply-side pressure. The BRL remains vulnerable to any reassessment of the easing path if inflation continues to accelerate.--- Brazil's Copom cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 14.25% for a third straight meeting, keeping next steps open while flagging election-year fiscal stimulus as a new upside risk to inflation. (186 chars)Summary: Source: Copom policy statement and post-meeting commentaryCopom unanimously cut the Selic by 25bp to 14.25%, a level last seen in May 2025; 41 of 45 economists had forecast the moveNext steps left deliberately open; total easing magnitude will depend on incoming dataFiscal stimulus from President Lula flagged as an upside inflation risk that may weaken monetary policy transmission2026 inflation forecast raised to 5.2% from 4.6%; 2027 forecast lifted to 3.7% from 3.5%, both above the 3% targetCapital Economics forecasts 50bp of further cuts across the next four meetings, bringing Selic to 13.75% by year-endAdditional risks include El Nino weather effects and a proposed congressional bill guaranteeing workers two days off per week Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark Selic rate for a third consecutive meeting on Wednesday, lowering it by 25 basis points to 14.25%, while signalling that the easing cycle faces increasing headwinds from a deteriorating inflation outlook and election-year fiscal pressure.The rate-setting committee Copom voted unanimously for the cut, which had been forecast by 41 of 45 economists surveyed by Reuters. The decision brings the Selic to its lowest level since May 2025, continuing a calibration cycle that began in March after the bank judged its earlier tightening had sufficiently cooled activity and lending.But the accompanying statement introduced a notable new concern. Policymakers explicitly identified economic stimulus measures being rolled out by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of October's election as an upside risk to inflation, warning it could weaken the usual transmission channels of monetary policy. The bank also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 4.6% and its 2027 projection to 3.7% from 3.5%, both further above the official 3% target.Annual inflation hit 4.72% in May, and market expectations have risen across near and longer-term horizons, raising questions about the bank's ability to anchor prices independently of current shocks. Governor Gabriel Galipolo has separately flagged El Nino as an additional supply-side risk, while a congressional bill that could guarantee workers two days off per week adds further potential cost pressure in a tight labour market.COPOM stands for Comite de Politica Monetaria, which is Portuguese for Monetary Policy Committee. Brazil's central bank, the Banco Central do Brasil, uses the Portuguese acronym rather than an English equivalent, in the same way the European Central Bank's rate-setting body is called the Governing Council or the US equivalent is the FOMC. It was established in 1996, modelled partly on the US Federal Open Market Committee structure, and meets eight times a year to set the Selic rate. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.