How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?ECB policymaker Wunsch says upside surprises in inflation would justify further tighteningECB policymaker Lane sees the current inflation shock as "mid-sized", defends rate hikeUSD/JPY is near the highest level since 1986 as divergence with the Fed intensifiesUK May retail sales +1.2% vs +0.5% m/m expectedFX option expiries for 19 June 10am New York cutWhat are the main events for today?It's been a very light session with no major data or news releases. The markets were also pretty calm with things expected to die down further during the NA session due to the US holiday. As a reminder, the US stock market and bond market will be closed and will resume trading on Monday. Futures markets typically halt or experience early closures, often closing at 12:00 p.m. ET.The only economic data we got was the UK Retail Sales report. The data surprised to the upside across the board but the market reaction was pretty much muted as it doesn't change anything for the BoE.ECB policymakers Lane and Wunsch defended last week's rate hike decision arguing that the ECB had not made a mistake by hiking while inflation was rising and uncertainty remained elevated. Wunsch, in particular, acknowledged that easing geopolitical tensions involving Iran and moderating wage growth could strengthen the argument that the ECB might have been able to look through the energy-driven inflation spike. Still, he maintained that last week’s decision was justified given the information available at the time.In the American session, there's just the Canadian Retail Sales report which is not going to change anything for the BoC, so the market reaction will likely be muted. Have a great weekend! This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The votes are in. The industry's most credible awards, the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026, have announced this year's winners, recognising the best brokers, technology providers and fintech brands operating on the global stage. Following a Voting Round that concluded on 15 June, the results were revealed at the Award Ceremony held on 17 June at the City of Dreams Mediterranean. The ceremony took place during iFX EXPO International 2026 but remains a fully independent event with its own distinct scope. This edition was particularly special as it overlapped with the UF AWARDS' fifth anniversary. Celebrating the best in the industry for five years is an important milestone, with so many shifts in the market. As new trends emerge and more ambitious brands enter the FX and fintech space, the UF AWARDS will continue to raise the bar for transparency and trustworthiness in an industry long dominated by vanity metrics.A verdict delivered by the industryWhat separates the UF AWARDS from the crowded field of industry recognition programmes is the process itself. The winners are decided by an open vote. Anyone can nominate, and every member of the industry can vote, from brokers and affiliates to partners, employees and retail traders. The people casting votes are people with real experience of the nominated brands, which is precisely what makes the outcome impossible to engineer through marketing alone.Launched in 2021 by Ultimate Fintech, the UF AWARDS were established as a benchmark for excellence within the global financial services industry. The GLOBAL edition is the flagship of the series, and this year's competition drew nominees from across the full breadth of the online trading and fintech ecosystem. Winning here means standing out in front of the industry's most engaged and most discerning audience.The UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026 winnersThe winning brands have demonstrated sustained commitment to their clients and partners in one of the most competitive industries in the world. Congratulations to each of them.BROKER AWARDSFXPRO: BROKER OF THE YEAREC MARKETS: BEST GLOBAL BROKERFP MARKETS: MOST TRUSTED BROKERFXTM: BEST CFD BROKERAXIORY: MOST INNOVATIVE BROKERVS MARKETS: MOST TRANSPARENT BROKERALPARI: BEST TRADING EXECUTIONTRADINGPRO: BEST TRADING EXPERIENCEWRPRO: BEST TRADING CONDITIONSVANTAGE: BEST BROKER FOR COPY TRADINGVERSUS TRADE: FASTEST GROWING BROKERTENTRADE: BEST EMERGING BROKERBULLWAVES: BEST AFFILIATE PROGRAMMEONEFUNDED: FASTEST GROWING PROP FIRMB2B AWARDSCENTROID SOLUTIONS: BEST TECHNOLOGY PROVIDERSCALETRADE: BEST TRADING PLATFORMCTRADER: BEST MOBILE TRADING APPPLUGIT: BEST COPY TRADING PLATFORMMATCH-TRADER: BEST PREDICTION MARKETS PLATFORMFINALTO: BEST B2B LIQUIDITY PROVIDERADVANCED MARKETS: MOST TRUSTED B2B LIQUIDITY PROVIDERTAPAAS: MOST INNOVATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT PROVIDERDEXA: BEST RISK MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONEXO CRM & TRADER: BEST CRM PROVIDERPAYTIKO: BEST CASHIER PLATFORMLETKNOW PAY: BEST CRYPTO PAYMENT GATEWAYMATCH2PAY: BEST CRYPTO PAYMENT SOLUTIONBLOCKMAZE: FINTECH OF THE YEARRecognition that carries weightReaching the voting stage was already a significant achievement for every nominated brand, placing them head-to-head with the most prominent names in the industry in front of a hyper-focused global audience. Winning goes further. A UF AWARDS GLOBAL title positions a brand among the most respected and trusted names in the market, backed by the only form of validation that cannot be bought: the active support of clients, partners and peers.For the winners, the trophy lifted at the City of Dreams Mediterranean represents thousands of individual decisions by people who chose to stand behind their brand. That is the kind of recognition that outlasts a marketing cycle.Looking aheadThe organisers thank everyone who participated in the UF AWARDS GLOBAL 2026, from the nominated brands to the thousands of voters who delivered the industry's verdict, and congratulate the winners on their dedication and relentless pursuit of excellence. As the flagship edition reaches its ceremonious close, attention now turns to the next edition of the UF AWARDS. Will your brand be on the 2027 winners' list? This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.

Rate hikes by year-endRBNZ: 62 bps (80% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)Fed: 38 bps (40% probability of rate hike at the next meeting)ECB: 37 bps (78% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoE: 33 bps (81% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoC: 26 bps (93% probability of no change at the next meeting)BoJ: 23 bps (96% probability of no change at the next meeting)RBA: 15 bps (75% probability of no change at the next meeting)SNB: 7 bps (92% probability of no change at the next meeting)Last week's market pricing hereIf you take a look at last week's pricing, you can notice that the only major change happened on the Fed side. The only takeaway from the FOMC decision was the more hawkish dot plot as the statement didn't contain anything and Fed Chair Warsh refrained from giving forward guidance.The median dot plot surprisingly showed one rate hike this year, with some of those hawkish members expecting even multiple hikes (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 40% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Full article hereECB's Wunsch said he would support another 25 bps hike if inflation data continues to come in stronger than expected, particularly after the recent rise in Eurozone services inflation. He said persistent upside surprises in inflation would justify further tightening as a precaution, though he added there is no need to rush into another move if the data remains mixed or unclear.Wunsch defended the ECB’s latest rate increase, arguing that the central bank had not made a mistake by hiking while inflation was rising and uncertainty remained elevated. He noted that real interest rates had actually declined slightly and stressed that the ECB still has room to cut rates later if inflation pressures ease.He also acknowledged that easing geopolitical tensions involving Iran and moderating wage growth could strengthen the argument that the ECB might have been able to look through the recent energy-driven inflation spike. Still, he maintained that last week’s decision was justified given the information available at the time.Wunsch also called for clearer communication from the ECB, suggesting the bank should offer more explicit guidance on how future policy decisions depend on incoming data and geopolitical developments rather than relying solely on its standard meeting-by-meeting approach.The market is currently pricing in 36 bps of tightening by year-end with 67% chance of a rate hike in September. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Inflation will be above 3% for the rest of this year It's hard to make a case that we shouldn't have hiked There is a fair amount of resilience in the Eurozone economy Eurozone economy has steady momentum So far this is a mid-sized inflation shockECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane defended the latest 25 bps hike, arguing that policymakers had strong justification to tighten policy as inflation risks stemming from the US-Iran conflict and elevated energy prices continued to pressure the Eurozone economy.Lane said inflation is expected to remain above 3% for the rest of the year, highlighting the ECB’s concern that the recent energy-driven price shock could become more entrenched.The ECB delivered the rate increase at its last meeting in response to persistent upside inflation risks, particularly after the escalation of the US-Iran war triggered a sharp rise in oil and gas prices over recent months. Higher energy costs have fed into transportation, manufacturing, and consumer prices across the eurozone, raising fears of second-round inflation effects.He also struck a constructive tone on economic activity, noting that the Eurozone continues to show resilience and maintaining steady momentum.Lane characterized the current inflation episode as “a mid-sized inflation shock”, suggesting the ECB does not view the situation as comparable to the extreme energy crisis seen in 2022. However, the persistence of elevated price pressures remains sufficient to justify a cautious, restrictive policy stance. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEWUSD:The US dollar surged across the board on the more hawkish than expected dot plot (the consensus was looking for no cuts or hikes this year). The median dot showed one rate hike this year and some of those hawkish members pencilled in multiple hikes. By projecting a rate hike, the Fed effectively adopted a tightening bias in the short-term.The market increased rate hike bets immediately with now 38 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 40% chance of a hike already in July and 72% probability of a move in September.The economic data and financial markets will now guide the Fed as Warsh stated that “financial markets perform best when they react to incoming data and are less efficient when they have to ask how the Federal Reserve will react to the incoming data”. He added that “financial markets are the most important source of information to guide the central bank”.Trump also posted on Truth Social and, unlike his usual stance under Fed Chair Powell, did not object to the Fed’s decision. In fact, he said that “rate hikes could happen,” which sounds like a green light for Warsh and the Fed to do whatever they deem necessary.The signal is that the Fed is finally looking to deliver on its price stability mandate and bring inflation back to the 2% target that it’s been missing since 2021. If the data says they need to hike, they will.My expectation is that the negative supply shock caused by the US-Iran war turns into a positive demand shock now that the war ended and oil prices dropped significantly. I think that's going to boost economic activity further and the markets are already positioning for that scenario.JPY:On the JPY side, the BoJ hiked the policy rate to 1.00% as widely expected and announced the pause to the bond tapering programme from next fiscal year. The forward guidance remained the same with the BoJ looking to continue the normalisation process, raising the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation “in response to developments in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions”. BoJ’s Uchida didn’t offer anything new in the press conference reiterating the central bank’s willingness to raise rates further if economic conditions align. The Japanese CPI data today came in line with expectations with all the inflation metrics below the 2% target. The divergence with the Fed will continue to keep the USD/JPY pair skewed to the upside. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAMEOn the daily chart, we can see that USDJPY broke out of the consolidation around the 160.00 handle and surged towards the 162.00 handle following the more hawkish than expected Fed’s dot plot. We can expect the sellers to step in around the 162.00 level with a defined risk above it to position for a correction to the major upward trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into new highs. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 4 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline and a support zone around the 160.50 level. This is going to be a key spot now. If we get a pullback, we can expect the buyers to step in around the support with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile in for a drop back into the 158.00 handle next. USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAMEOn the 1 hour chart, we have yet another minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum on this timeframe. We can expect the buyers to lean on the trendline to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break to extend the pullback into the 160.50 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Prior -1.3% (revised to -1.0%)Retail sales +3.2% vs +1.9% y/y expectedPrior +0.0% (revised to +0.1%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel 1.2% vs +0.4% m/m expectedPrior -0.4% (revised to -0.1%)Retail sales ex autos, fuel +4.6% vs +3.3% y/y expectedPrior +1.1%Full report hereThis is a good report but won't change much for the BoE at this point. The ONS says: "The quantity of goods bought (volume) in retail sales is estimated to have risen by 0.4% in the three months to May 2026 compared with the three months to February 2026. Non-food stores’ sales volumes rose, with department stores performing well in May because of the good weather. Also within non-food stores, computer and telecoms retailers continued to grow following product releases in March 2026. Non-store retailers rose following strong March and May periods.Retail sales volumes are estimated to have risen by 1.2% in May 2026. This follows a fall of 1.0% in April 2026 (revised up from a 1.3% fall in our previous bulletin), and a rise of 0.7% in March 2026 (revised up from a 0.6% rise in our previous bulletin). Retailers suggested that promotions and the hot weather in May increased sales volumes for non-store retailers and department stores." This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD1.1500 (EUR 3.45 bn)1.1350 (EUR 1.06 bn)USD/JPY162.00 (US$ 411.07 mn)GBP/USD1.3350 (GBP 323.37 mn)USD/CHF0.7980 (US$ 593.83 mn)USD/CAD1.4000 (US$ 621.46 mn)AUD/USD0.7055 (AUD 385.01 mn)0.7000 (AUD 362.60 mn)NZD/USD0.5800 (NZD 351.00 mn)EUR/GBP0.8750 (EUR 255.99 mn)WHAT ARE OPTION EXPIRIES?The FX option expiration price levels refer to the strike prices where option contracts are set to expire. These levels include both calls and puts.When you see "EUR/USD at 1.1600 for €4 billion" it means there is a total of €4 billion worth of options (calls + puts combined) that have a strike price of 1.1600 and are expiring at that specific time (the "New York Cut" at 10:00 AM ET).Traders watch these levels because they often act as a "magnet" for the price. For example, if there's nothing happening in the market and the price is close to the expiry level, let's say 30-50 pips away, what you will usually see is the price moving into the expiry level. This happens due to the hedging activity of the market makers (banks, dealers and so on).As the price gets closer to the strike price near expiration, these market makers must aggressively buy or sell the currency to hedge their risk. This hedging activity tends to suppress volatility and keep the price "pinned" close to the strike price until the expiration time passes. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSIONIn the European session, we have only the UK Retail Sales report. The data is expected to show a 0.5% increase in May compared to a -1.3% decline the prior month. The Retail Sales Ex-Fuel M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs -0.4% in the prior month. This is generally a market-moving release but it rarely changes the big picture due to the volatile nature and most of the time the initial reaction is faded.AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we get the Canadian Retail Sales report which is expected to show a 0.6% increase in April compared to a 0.9% gain in the prior month. The Retail Sales Ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.7% vs 1.4% prior. Everything said about the UK Retail Sales report is true for the Canadian one. I would expect a limited reaction unless we get some big deviations. As a reminder, today the US is on holiday for Juneteenth so the US stock market and bond market will be closed and will resume trading on Monday. Futures markets typically halt or experience early closures, often closing at 12:00 p.m. ET.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS07:10 GMT/03:10 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)08:00 GMT/04:00 ET - ECB's Escriva (neutral - voter)10:15 GMT/06:15 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)14:30 GMT/10:30 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Japan CPI stays muted in May as subsidies mask building inflation pressureOil and US dollar rising on news that Vance cancelled his trip to negotiate with IranBoJ deputy governor says delaying on price risks could cause long-term economic damageVance cancels his trip to SwitzerlandJapan finmin says prepared to take decisive action on speculative FX movesBoJ's Deputy governor warns yen moves now carry bigger inflation punch than in the pastChina says Australian beef imports hit 100% of quota on June 18thBoJ April minutes: Three members wanted to move in April; the rest caught up by JuneJapan May inflation data: Headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.5%) Core 1.4% (expected 1.4%)UK consumer confidence masks growing cracks beneath steady headlineNew Zealand May 2026 trade data, exports and imports both up from AprilUSD/JPY mystery sell-off from 161.80 leaves traders hunting for answersCiti sees oil at $60-65 by Q1 2027 as Hormuz flows normaliseIraq flags gradual oil return as Hormuz reopens, but risks lingerReminder - Hong Kong and China markets are closed for a holiday today, 19 June 2026After 15 years of word-watching, markets may benefit from a Fed that talks lessinvestingLive Americas FX news wrap 18 Jun USDJPY surges to near highs going to 2024Summary:Iran has frozen its MOU commitments and postponed the Geneva talks with the US until a Lebanon ceasefire is in place, with Israel's continued attacks triggering the deal's first clause; Vance's Switzerland cancellation followedOil and the USD edged higher on the news; gold slipped back under $4,200Japan's core CPI held at 1.4% in May, core-core slowed to 1.8%, its weakest since September 2022, with fuel subsidies masking building pipeline pressureFinance Minister Katayama warned of decisive action against speculative yen moves, pulling USD/JPY back toward 161.00; traders are on guard for actual intervention given thin Juneteenth liquidity aheadThe Nikkei slipped modestly on Friday but closed out a strong week; Hong Kong and mainland China markets were shut for a holidaySterling faced mild headwinds from speculation over a potential leadership challenge against Prime Minister StarmerThe dominant story across Friday's session was the swift unravelling of the US-Iran peace process, just two days after the memorandum of understanding was signed. Iran has frozen its MOU commitments and postponed its Geneva meeting with the US, per Fars news agency, citing Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon as a violation of the deal's first clause. Tehran has made clear it will not implement its own obligations until Washington ensures compliance on the Lebanon front. JD Vance's cancellation of his Switzerland trip, first reported by CNN and later confirmed by the White House, was the visible symptom of a process that had already stalled before it formally began. This is the Lebanon tripwire detonating on schedule. Iran warned consistently that an unresolved Lebanon meant a broken deal, and it is now acting on that position. There are hopes of salvaging talks with a potential meeting between lower level officials.Oil and the dollar edged higher during the session as the risk premium that had drained from crude following the Hormuz reopening began to rebuild. Gold slipped back under $4,200.In Japan, May CPI data confirmed what subsidies have been doing to the headline numbers. Core held at 1.4% and core-core slowed to its weakest since September 2022, but producer price acceleration since March signals the pipeline is filling. Finance Minister Katayama added to the yen defence rhetoric, warning of decisive action against speculative moves and pulling USD/JPY back toward 161.00. With Juneteenth thinning US liquidity into the weekend, traders noted the precedent of Japan's late April and early May interventions, which totalled around $72 billion, conducted precisely during holiday-thinned conditions.The Nikkei gave back a fraction of what had been a strong week. Sterling softened modestly on domestic political noise around a potential challenge to Prime Minister Starmer. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The data is dovish on the surface but the BoJ is unlikely to read it that way given the context. Subsidies are doing the work of keeping core below 2%, not underlying disinflation, and the PPI acceleration since March is the more forward-looking signal for where consumer prices are heading once government support tapers. For USD/JPY, the print offers no immediate catalyst for yen strength through a BoJ surprise, but Himino's remarks on Friday about fuel costs intensifying around summer keep the next move in the rate cycle firmly priced. The yen's weakness, averaging 158.24 in May and trading near 161 on Friday, is itself feeding the import cost pipeline the subsidies are trying to offset.Earlier:BoJ deputy governor says delaying on price risks could cause long-term economic damageJapan finmin says prepared to take decisive action on speculative FX movesBoJ's Deputy governor warns yen moves now carry bigger inflation punch than in the pastBoJ April minutes: Three members wanted to move in April; the rest caught up by JuneJapan May inflation data: Headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.5%) Core 1.4% (expected 1.4%)--- Japan's core CPI held at 1.4% in May as expected, while core-core slowed to 1.8%, its weakest since September 2022, with government fuel subsidies masking pipeline inflation pressure. Summary: Per Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, May CPI data released June 19:Headline CPI: 1.5% (expected 1.4%, prior 1.4%)Core ex fresh food: 1.4% (expected 1.4%, prior 1.4%) — below the BoJ's 2% target for a fourth consecutive monthCore-core ex fresh food and energy: 1.8% (expected 1.9%, prior 1.9%) — slowest since September 2022Government fuel subsidies were the primary factor suppressing the headline and core readings, with gasoline prices down 7% year-on-year and overall energy costs lowerProducer price inflation has risen sharply since March, raising concern that business input cost increases will pass through to consumers in coming monthsThe BoJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.00% earlier in the week and signalled continued gradual tightening; an overwhelming majority of BoJ watchers surveyed after the decision expect another hike by year-endMore than 1,000 food and beverage products are scheduled for price increases in June, up from 84 in May, partly reflecting rising costs for chemicals used in packagingJapan's May inflation data landed on the soft side of expectations in headline terms, but the mechanisms keeping it there are temporary and the BoJ knows it.Core consumer prices, excluding fresh food, held at 1.4% year-on-year, matching both the April reading and the median economist forecast. Core-core, which strips out both fresh food and energy and serves as the BoJ's closest proxy for underlying inflation, slipped to 1.8% from 1.9%, its slowest pace since September 2022 and a touch below the expected 1.9%. Headline came in at 1.5%, marginally above the prior 1.4%.In summary, the National CPI, May 2026: Core-core ex fresh food, energy: 1.8% | expected 1.9% | prior 1.9% Core ex fresh food: 1.4% | expected 1.4% | prior 1.4% Headline: 1.5% | expected 1.4% | prior 1.4%The moderation in core-core reflects the direct effect of Prime Minister Takaichi's subsidy programmes, which have kept fuel and utility costs artificially suppressed. Gasoline prices fell 7% in May from a year earlier. Strip those interventions away and the underlying picture is considerably less comfortable. Producer price inflation has accelerated sharply since March, driven by energy-related inputs, and that pressure has not yet fully migrated to the consumer level. When it does, the CPI prints will look different.The forward signals are accumulating. More than 1,000 food and beverage products are scheduled for price increases in June, up from just 84 in May, driven partly by rising chemical costs in packaging. Services prices are picking up, with hotel stays among the categories seeing faster increases. Rice prices fell nearly 5% in May, providing some offset, but that relief is unlikely to persist.The BoJ raised its benchmark rate to 1.00% earlier in the week, its highest since 1995, and Deputy Governor Himino used Friday appearances to warn explicitly that fuel cost pressure on CPI is likely to intensify around summer. Mizuho Securities chief economist Shunsuke Kobayashi captured the consensus view: the BoJ will continue normalising gradually if the outlook holds, but there is no sense of urgency. The subsidies are buying time. The question is what the data looks like when they are withdrawn. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Vice President JD Vance has canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, citing unresolved logistics and uncertainty surrounding the next round of negotiations.First reported by CNN then confirmed by the Whiote House. This stumble so early in the peace process has sent a shudder through markets, continued at this stage, with the USD and oil on the rise. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The overshoot warning is the sharpest language Himino has used across both sets of remarks on Friday and lifts the hawkish temperature of the session considerably. Framing delay itself as a risk, rather than premature action, signals the BoJ's reaction function has shifted toward prioritising inflation containment over growth protection. The summer fuel CPI warning gives the market a specific near-term trigger to price around, and the July quarterly forecast update is now a live event for rate expectations. The bond taper clarification, that the pause reflects market absorption capacity rather than fiscal accommodation, is a deliberate attempt to insulate the BoJ from any suggestion it is monetising government debt.--- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino warned that delaying action on price risks could cause an inflation overshoot and long-term economic damage, adding fuel cost CPI impact will likely intensify around summer. Earlier from Japan:Japan finmin says prepared to take decisive action on speculative FX movesBoJ's Deputy governor warns yen moves now carry bigger inflation punch than in the pastBoJ April minutes: Three members wanted to move in April; the rest caught up by JuneJapan May inflation data: Headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.5%) Core 1.4% (expected 1.4%)Summary:Himino warned that delay in addressing price risks could allow an inflation overshoot to materialise and damage the economy over the longer termThe wage-price rise mechanism is becoming embedded in the economy, with wages increasing at smaller firms and in some cases exceeding last year's paceConsumption is resilient and providing a demand-side boost to prices, with a wide range of goods and services seeing moderate price increasesFuel cost pressures on CPI are expected to intensify around summer, with a fuller analysis of oil's inflation impact to be provided at the July quarterly forecast updateThe BoJ's decision to pause its bond taper reflects the time needed for banks and individuals to increase their own bond buying, and is not aimed at accommodating fiscal policyHimino declined to comment on market pricing of future rate hikes but reaffirmed the BoJ makes its own policy decisions independently of overseas authoritiesBank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino returned to the podium Friday evening and delivered his most pointed message of the day: the risk of waiting on inflation has become greater than the risk of acting.His warning that delay in dealing with price pressures could allow an overshoot to materialise and inflict long-term economic damage represents a meaningful escalation in tone from the BoJ's typically measured communication. It reframes the policy debate in a way that will be difficult to walk back. For months the dominant narrative around BoJ deliberations centred on the danger of moving too fast in an uncertain environment. Himino has now placed the opposite risk squarely on the table.The underpinning for that concern was laid out in detail. The wage-price mechanism, long the BoJ's stated precondition for sustained normalisation, is no longer a projection. Himino described it as becoming embedded in the economy, with wage increases spreading to smaller firms and in some cases running ahead of last year's pace. Consumption is holding up and providing a demand-side contribution to prices across a wide range of goods and services. These are not the conditions under which a central bank typically discovers patience.The summer fuel CPI warning adds a specific timeline. Himino flagged that the impact of rising fuel costs on consumer prices is likely to become more pronounced around summer, with the July quarterly forecast update earmarked for a fuller assessment of oil's inflation pass-through. That puts the next policy meeting in a context where the inflation print may be moving higher just as the board sits down to revise its numbers.On bond tapering, Himino was direct: the pause in reducing JGB purchases reflects the time required for private sector buyers to absorb more supply, not any intention to accommodate government borrowing needs. The distinction matters given ongoing sensitivity around the boundary between monetary and fiscal policy in Japan. Added:Himino said even if price rises are driven by supply shock, if that leads to broad-based price reises and effects underlying inflation we need to consider policy action Himino said that recent price rises reflect not only supply pressures but also demand strength from corporate profits, wage gains, and AI-driven demand in the economy. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

US Vice President JD Vance has canceled his planned trip to Switzerland for talks with Iran, according to CNN."Logisitics". Yeah, right. Not a positive sign.Oil is up a touch on this, not surprisingly. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japanese Finance Minister Katayama:prepared to take decisive action on speculative moves on FXwon't rely on debt to fund food sales tax cut This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The FX comments are the most market-relevant element of Himino's remarks and land with particular force given Thursday's USD/JPY spike to 161.80. By explicitly stating that yen moves carry a larger inflation impact than in the past due to shifts in corporate behaviour, Himino has effectively connected the FX rate to the BoJ's policy calculus in a way that goes beyond the standard disclaimer that monetary policy does not target exchange rates. That framing gives the BoJ implicit cover to accelerate the hiking path if yen weakness persists, without formally adopting an FX mandate. The underlying inflation deviation risk comment reinforces the April minutes' hawkish undercurrent and keeps the next hike firmly in view.--- BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said the bank expects to keep raising rates, flagged risk of underlying inflation deviating from target, and warned FX moves now have a larger inflation impact than historically. Summary:The BoJ expects to continue raising rates in line with economic, price and financial developments, with pace and timing to be guided by the likelihood of the baseline scenario materialising and associated risksUnderlying inflation is approaching 2% but carries risk of deviating upward, with Himino cautioning that recent price rises are not driven solely by temporary supply factorsJapan's economy is solid overall, supported by high corporate profits and household income, despite the drag from elevated oil pricesFX moves are among the key factors affecting Japan's economy and prices; while monetary policy does not target exchange rates, Himino said the inflation impact of FX moves has grown due to changes in corporate behaviourThe BoJ will continue to monitor FX developments carefully given their potential effect on inflation expectations and underlying inflationBank of Japan Deputy Governor Himino used a Friday appearance to reinforce the bank's hiking bias while delivering a pointed message on the yen that markets would have been unwise to miss.The core message on rates was consistent with post-June meeting guidance: the BoJ expects to keep raising, with pace and timing calibrated against the evolving baseline and its associated risks. Himino added texture by flagging that underlying inflation is approaching 2% but that the risk of it deviating from target runs to the upside, not because of a temporary energy spike but because of something more durable in the price-setting environment. That distinction matters. It echoes the April minutes' concern that Japan's shift away from a deflationary mindset has made the economy more responsive to cost pressures than in previous cycles.The more immediately traded element was his commentary on foreign exchange. Himino was careful to restate the standard BoJ position that monetary policy does not target FX moves. He then qualified it in a way that carries real weight: compared with the past, yen weakness now has a larger impact on inflation due to changes in corporate behaviour. The implication is that a sustained depreciation feeds through to prices faster and more broadly than historical models would suggest, which in turn affects inflation expectations and the underlying inflation trajectory the BoJ is trying to manage.Coming on the same day that USD/JPY tested 161.80 before a sharp reversal, Himino's remarks land as more than routine communication. The BoJ is watching the yen, it is not indifferent to where it goes, and the policy rate is the instrument that connects the two. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

One of those headlines that''' trigger a wobble down, will soon pass. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

The minutes are retrospectively hawkish given that the BoJ has since moved to 1.00%, validating the three dissenters who argued for exactly that level in April. The more significant market signal is the board's near-unanimous recognition that underlying inflation was approaching 2% and that real rates remained deeply negative, a framing that keeps further normalisation firmly on the table. With Hormuz now reopening and crude prices retreating, the specific Middle East risk premium that gave the majority cover to hold in April is fading, which arguably clears the path for the pace of hikes to resume. USD/JPY's sensitivity to any BoJ communication is heightened in this context.--- BoJ's April minutes showed a 6-3 vote to hold at 0.75%, with three members pushing for 1.00%, as the board flagged upside inflation risks and deepening price-pass-through from energy costs. (190 chars)Full text: Bank of Japan minutes of the April 27-28, 2026 monetary policy meeting:Summary:The Policy Board voted 6-3 to hold the overnight call rate at 0.75%; dissenters Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura each proposed raising to 1.00%, citing upside price risks, second-round effects, and the need to move toward the neutral rateThe majority held on grounds that Middle East uncertainty made the baseline scenario harder to assess, not because they disputed the inflation directionCPI ex-fresh food was running 1.5-2.0% at the time of the meeting but the board projected 2.5-3.0% for fiscal 2026 as energy cost pass-through acceleratedMembers broadly agreed that firms' price-setting behaviour had shifted structurally, with wage pass-through widening beyond large firms to smaller enterprises following Rengo spring negotiations showing around 3.5% base pay increasesThe board flagged that inflation expectations, while not yet as anchored as in the US or Europe, had risen to approximately 2% and were at risk of deviating further upward if crude prices stayed elevatedSeveral members noted the neutral rate remained some distance away and that the pace of hikes may need to accelerate if upside price risks intensifiedThe Bank of Japan's April minutes, released Friday, read less like a record of a hold decision and more like a staging post on the way to the June hike that followed.The 6-3 vote to keep the overnight call rate at 0.75% masked a board that was, in substance, broadly aligned on the direction of travel. The three dissenters, Nakagawa, Takata and Tamura, argued for an immediate move to 1.00%. Their reasoning varied in emphasis but converged on the same core view: underlying inflation was close enough to 2%, real rates were deeply negative, and waiting carried more risk than moving. Tamura was the most direct, arguing the bank should position the policy rate as close to neutral as possible given the upside skew in price risks.The majority's case for holding rested almost entirely on Middle East uncertainty rather than any disagreement about the inflation trajectory. Several members acknowledged that CPI excluding fresh food was likely to reach 2.5-3.0% across fiscal 2026 as energy cost pass-through accelerated through supply chains. They noted that firms' price-setting behaviour had shifted structurally since the post-Ukraine period, with a wider range of sectors, including dining-out and public transportation, actively passing on personnel and distribution cost increases. Spring wage negotiations had delivered around 3.5% base pay increases not just at large firms but at smaller enterprises, reinforcing the wage-price dynamic the BoJ had long sought.The board also flagged a risk that had not been prominent in earlier meetings: that inflation expectations in Japan, historically adaptive rather than anchored, could overshoot if crude prices remained elevated. Several members noted this distinguished the current episode from the 1979 oil shock, when wage and price responses were contained. The institutional memory of that comparison was doing work in the room.With Hormuz now reopening and the BoJ having moved to 1.00% in June, the April minutes are most useful as a guide to what comes next. The dissenters' framework, move early, move toward neutral, do not wait for perfect clarity, appears to have carried the board. Whether the pace of further adjustments accelerates will depend on how quickly the energy shock fades from the inflation print. Not that there seems to be much need for a fade:Japan May inflation data: Headline 1.5% y/y (expected 1.5%) Core 1.4% (expected 1.4%) This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

I'll have more to come on this separately.For now, just the data:National CPI:ex Food, Energy (YoY) (May) 1.8% y/y ... aka Core-core and the closest to the US measure of core inflation:expected 1.9%1.8% is the slowest since September 2022ex Fresh Food (YoY) (May) 1.4% ... aka Core:expected 1.4%, prior 1.4% Headline 1.5%expected 1.4%, prior 1.4% This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Sterling faces a modest negative undercurrent from the data, not from the headline number, which came in marginally better than forecast, but from the sub-index deterioration that points to softening domestic demand ahead. Major purchase intentions sitting at joint-lowest levels since January 2025 is a quiet signal for retailers and discretionary spending. For the Bank of England, the youth pessimism data adds a nuanced wrinkle: a headline that holds steady gives little cover for either hawks or doves, but the underlying trend is clearly not improving.--- UK GfK consumer confidence held at -23 in June, matching May and beating the Reuters poll forecast of -24, but sub-indices revealed deteriorating sentiment among younger consumers and on personal finances. Summary:The GfK Consumer Confidence Index held at -23 in June, unchanged from May and one point better than the Reuters poll median of -24Confidence among 16-to-29-year-olds fell 11 points to -2, the weakest reading in two yearsConsumers' assessment of their personal finances over the past 12 months fell three points to -10, while the forward-looking measure held at -2Major purchase intentions were unchanged at -20, matching the joint-lowest level since January 2025The general economic outlook for the past year fell two points to -49, though the 12-month forward view improved two points to -36GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy warned the flat headline was misleading given the weakness visible in underlying measuresBritain's headline consumer confidence number held firm in June but GfK's own director stepped forward almost immediately to say it should not be taken at face value, and the sub-indices support his caution.The index printed at -23, matching May and nudging above the Reuters poll consensus of -24. On the surface that reads as resilience. Beneath it, the picture is more uncomfortable. Confidence among the 16-to-29 age cohort dropped 11 points to -2, the weakest in two years, a move that stands out sharply against a steady headline and suggests the political and economic uncertainty weighing on the broader mood is landing hardest on younger consumers who have the least financial buffer to absorb it.Personal finance assessments for the past 12 months fell three points to -10, while major purchase intentions remained pinned at -20, matching the joint-lowest reading since January 2025. Neither number points to a consumer base preparing to spend its way through uncertainty.Neil Bellamy, GfK's consumer insights director, put it plainly: the lack of movement in the headline figure is misleading, and new signs of weakening are visible for those willing to look. That kind of direct editorial from the survey's own publisher is worth noting. Data providers rarely volunteer that their headline is obscuring something worse.The one fragment of forward optimism is a two-point improvement in the 12-month economic outlook to -36, though at that level the word optimism is doing heavy lifting. British consumers are not confident. They are simply, for now, no less unconfident than they were last month. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.