The AUDUSD moved higher with the risk-on flows yesterday. However, the price did run into some topside resistance that stalled the pair. IN the post and video, I referenced that area:...the real test was just ahead. The price remains below a key swing area between 0.6896 and 0.69088 – a prior support zone that broke last week. That area now acts as resistance. A move back above would signal a return to the broader trading ranges suggest a break lower may have been a false move.In trading today, the pair pushed higher in the early Asian session before rotating lower in a corrective move. The pullback found support at 0.6899, just above a key swing area low. Holding that level was important—it gave buyers the technical confidence to step back in and reassert control.Since then, momentum has shifted back to the upside. The price has moved above the 200-hour moving average at 0.6932, extending to an intraday high of 0.6962. However, that rally stalled just short of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the March high at 0.6969, leaving that level as a key upside barometer. Buyers still need a break above it to signal a stronger shift in control.On the downside, the 200-hour moving average now serves as close support. As long as the price holds above that level, the bias tilts more favorably toward further upside probing. A sustained move higher should lead to at least a test of the 38.2% retracement, and a break above would open the door for additional gains toward the 0.7000 natural resistance and the 50% midpoint near 0.7010.Bottom line: Buyers are back in control above the 200-hour MA, but the real test comes at 0.6969. Break it, and momentum can build further to the upside. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Sector Overview? Technology & Semiconductors: The technology sector, especially semiconductors, led today's market rally. Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed brisk gains of 1.03% and 3.65%, respectively. Intel (INTC) stood out with an impressive rise of 8.59%, bolstering investor confidence in the semiconductor space.? Energy Sector: Struggling to keep up, the energy sector experienced significant losses. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) were notably down by 4.67% and 4.14%, respectively, as investors worried over declining oil prices and increased regulatory pressures.? Consumer & Communication: The consumer cyclical and communication services sectors showed notable resilience. Amazon (AMZN) climbed 1.24%, while Google (GOOG) surged 2.59%, reflecting strong investor sentiment and potential growth optimism.? Financial Sector: Performance was mixed here, with JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) inching up by 0.11% and 1.43% respectively, while other financials faced minor setbacks.Market Mood and TrendsThe market mood was predominantly optimistic today, buoyed by significant gains in the tech sector. Investors seem to be banking on a tech comeback despite broader economic uncertainties. However, the energy sector's downturn reflects ongoing volatility and sector-specific challenges.Strategic RecommendationsInvestors should consider diversifying their portfolios to leverage emerging trends. Emphasizing technology and communication service stocks could offer growth potential, while caution is advised in energy investments given current challenges. Monitoring real-time developments and sector shifts will be crucial.Visit InvestingLive.com for further insights and updates on the evolving market landscape. Stay informed to strategically navigate the market's opportunities and risks. This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices are extending higher today, building on yesterday’s upside momentum that followed the gap open off Friday’s cycle low into the close. The recovery rally has now pushed both indices into a key technical crossroads—testing their respective falling 100-hour moving averages. The bulls and bears are fighting at the key technical levels.For the S&P 500, the 100-hour moving average comes in at 6576.41, closely aligned with the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the January 28 all-time high. The price briefly pushed above both levels, reaching a high of 6585.18, but has since rotated back lower and is currently trading just below at 6574.89. That area now stands as a critical near-term barometer—stay below, and sellers can lean; move back above, and buyers regain more control.For the NASDAQ, the 100-hour moving average is at 21862.70, with the 38.2% retracement higher at 21950.09. The index reached a high of 21866.29, testing the moving average, but like the S&P, has pulled back and is trading below at 21837. The inability—so far—to extend above these resistance levels keeps the upside momentum in check.Bottom line: Both indices have rebounded sharply, but are now stalling against key technical resistance. The 100-hour moving averages are the battleground. A sustained move above would shift the bias more firmly in favor of the bulls, while holding below keeps the door open for sellers to reassert control. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Reuters is citing a source briefed on the matter:The VP has been talking to 'intermediaries' about the Iran conflict as recently as TuesdayTrump directed Vance to communicate privately that he is open to a ceasefire as long as certain US demands met including reopening HormuzVance delivered a 'stern' message that Trump was impatient and warned of growing pressure on Iran's infrastructure unless Iran makes a dealThe headlines continue to point to some kind of stalemate. Trump keeps saying Iran wants a ceasefire but this report indicates that it's Trump that wants a ceasefire.Separately (and probably not coincidentally), Axios reports that three US officials said discussions are taking place about a possible ceasefire with Iran in return for the reopening of the Hormuz strait. The officials said it is unclear if a deal can be reached.I think what's overwhelmingly clear is that the US wants the war to end and is looking for a way to make that happen. They seemingly have Israel on board as well.Iran seems to be angling for more than a ceasefire and a lasting peace instead. That might be splitting hairs but it's also not clear who is in charge of Iran and what their next moves might be. It's also curious that the US is sailing another aircraft carrier into the region and has ground troops ready to invade.In all likelihood, Iran takes some kind of deal because leaders there have guns to their heads and they surely don't want to risk the destruction of their energy industry. At the same time, it's not clear what remaining offensive capabilities they have and their willingness to block Hormuz.In any case, it's a pivotal moment and the market is clearly optimistic. We'll see if that optimism is well placed or not by late Monday.This remains the deadline Trump set:“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction by 10 Days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M., Eastern Time."WTI crude oil is down $2.50 to $98.88 and the S&P 500 is at a session high up 0.9%. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +6926KGasoline -586K vs -1876K expDistillates -2111K vs -586K expRefinery utilization -0.8% vs +1.5% expThe API data from late yesterday:Crude +10263KGasoline -3209KDistillates -1040KThe big build is negative for oil and it's the second one in a row.That's hard to believe given what's happening in the Middle East. In terms of price action, WTI is down $2.38 to $99.02 as it looks like Trump is about to announce that he's going to leave Iran tonight. Eyes remain on the war.The Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) is published every Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. Eastern by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the independent statistical arm of the Department of Energy. It provides a comprehensive snapshot of U.S. petroleum supply and demand, covering crude oil and refined product inventories, refinery inputs and utilization rates, imports, exports, production, and an estimate of products supplied (a proxy for consumption). The report covers the 50 states and the District of Columbia, with data broken out by Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) Districts. It is one of the most market-moving data releases in global energy trading, frequently triggering sharp intraday swings in crude oil and product futures.Recent weeks have been dominated by the fallout from the war in the Middle East, which has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz and sent Brent crude surging from roughly $62 at the start of the year to above $90 by mid-March. Against that backdrop, U.S. commercial crude inventories posted five consecutive weekly builds through March 20, rising to 456.2 million barrels—though still about 2% below the five-year average. The build for the week ending March 20 was particularly large at 6.9 million barrels, far above expectations for a 0.5 million barrel increase. Cushing, Oklahoma hub stocks rose by 3.4 million barrels that week, the most since January 2023. On the product side, gasoline inventories drew down steadily through March, while distillate stocks were mixed. Refinery utilization climbed to 92.9% by mid-March as seasonal maintenance wound down. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior month 0.0% revised from +0.1% DetailsSales: $1.9746T in January; +0.3% m/m (vs Dec 2025), +4.5% y/yInventories: $2.6750T; -0.1% m/m vs 0.1 estimate, +1.0% y/yInventories/Sales Ratio: 1.35, down from 1.40 in Jan 2025 At its core, the Census Business Inventories report is a pulse check on demand vs. supply across the U.S. economy—and right now, the signal is relatively constructive.Fundamentally, here’s what the latest data is showing:Demand is holding up: Sales are still growing (+0.3% m/m, +4.5% y/y), which tells you end-demand hasn’t rolled over. Consumers and businesses are still spending at a steady pace. Inventory drawdown (slight): Inventories dipped -0.1% on the month, which suggests firms are not overbuilding stock. Instead, they’re letting demand absorb existing inventories. Lean positioning by businesses: The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.35 (from 1.40 last year), meaning companies are carrying less inventory relative to sales—a sign of improved balance. No signs of excess supply stress: When inventories build too fast relative to sales, it often signals weak demand and future production cuts. That’s not what we’re seeing here. Potential tailwind for production: Leaner inventories can eventually lead to restocking cycles, which support manufacturing output and GDP if demand remains stable. Bottom lineThe data is telling a “steady demand, controlled supply” story. Businesses are not overextended on inventory, and sales continue to grind higher. That combination keeps the economic backdrop stable-to-positive, and if demand holds, it opens the door for future restocking and production gains rather than cutbacks.Caveats... the data is from January so it is old data. The war and its impact on the economy. The war started on February 28th. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.5Prices paid 78.3 vs 73.0 expected (Prior was 70.5)Employment 48.7 vs 48.8 priorNew orders 53.5 vs 55.8 priorThis prices paid number is worrisome but not surprising.US manufacturing spent most of 2025 in contraction. The ISM PMI slipped to 47.9 in December 2025, its lowest level since October 2024 and the third consecutive monthly decline. Production and inventories pulled back, and employment continued to contract, though modest improvements in new orders and backlogs offered faint encouragement. Price pressures remained elevated, with the prices paid subindex holding at 58.5.January 2026 delivered a dramatic reversal. The PMI surged to 52.6, far above the 48.5 consensus, marking the first expansion in twelve months and the strongest reading since 2022. New orders jumped nearly ten points to 57.1 and production rose to 55.9, though ISM cautioned that some of the rebound reflected post-holiday restocking and preemptive buying ahead of anticipated tariff-related price increases.February moderated slightly to 52.4 but still beat expectations of 51.8, confirming a second consecutive month of expansion. New orders and production growth slowed but remained solid. Employment and inventories stayed in contraction territory. The most notable development was a sharp acceleration in input prices—the prices paid subindex surged to 70.5, the highest since June 2022—driven by steel, aluminum, and tariff-related cost pressures. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is published monthly by the Institute for Supply Management, based on survey responses from purchasing and supply executives at over 400 industrial companies across 18 U.S. industries. Unlike the S&P Global PMI, which covers only private firms, the ISM draws from the broader NAICS classification system and is one of the oldest and most widely followed leading indicators of U.S. economic health. The headline PMI is a composite of five diffusion indices—new orders (30%), production (25%), employment (20%), supplier deliveries (15%), and inventories (10%)—with readings above 50 indicating expansion. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was 52.4Today's March release showed the PMI rising to 52.3 from 51.6 in February, marking the eighth consecutive month above the 50.0 threshold and pointing to a moderate and accelerating pace of expansion. Both output and new orders posted solid gains, supported in part by precautionary safety stock building as firms sought to lock in supply and prices following the outbreak of war in the Middle East. However, growth was principally driven by domestic demand, as international sales continued to decline under the weight of tariffs and shipping disruptions.The conflict's impact was most visible on the cost and supply side. Input price inflation surged to its highest level since August, fueled by rising energy and fuel costs alongside ongoing tariff-related pressures on aluminum and steel. Factory gate price inflation hit a seven-month high as manufacturers passed on costs where possible. Supplier delivery times deteriorated at the sharpest rate since October 2022, with the war exacerbating existing shipping and port delays. Finished goods inventories fell for the first time in eight months as firms shipped directly from stock to compensate for production delays.Despite the pickup in activity, firms were cautious on hiring—staffing levels were broadly unchanged, with some companies opting not to replace departing workers. Business confidence remained positive but edged slightly lower, with energy prices and tariffs cited as key risks to the outlook.For background, the S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI is compiled from survey responses from purchasing managers at around 600 American manufacturers, stratified by sector and company size based on GDP contributions. Data are collected in the second half of each month. The headline PMI is a weighted average of five subindices—new orders, output, employment, supplier delivery times, and stocks of purchases—with readings above 50 signaling expansion.Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence “Faster growth of output in March points to encouraging resilience for US manufacturing in the face of the outbreak of war in the Middle East. Business confidence regarding output in the year ahead has also so far held up well. This sustained resilience in part reflects reduced concerns over government policies such as tariffs, but also indicates that producers anticipate only a short-term and modest impact from the war, which is clearly uncertain. “It remains early days in terms of the impact of the conflict, and a sharp rise in prices and delivery delays has cast a cloud over the outlook, threatening to drive inflation higher, dampen demand and throttle supply chains. Factory input costs have already jumped higher on the back of surging oil prices and supplier delays have become more widespread than at any time since October 2022, linked to the war exacerbating existing shipping, haulage and port delays. “Some manufacturers are hence reporting stock building as a precaution against future price rises or supply shortages, and hiring has almost stalled in order to reduce staffing costs, underscoring the growing concern about how the war might cause problems for factories in the coming weeks. If price pressures and supply delays persist, demand, employment and production capabilities will inevitably start to be more seriously affected.”Resilience is a nice theme to build on. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCAD extended above a key swing area between 1.3924 and 1.3937 (see post yesterday), pushing toward the next upside target zone between 1.3971 and 1.3994. The rally reached a high of 1.3966—just short of that next resistance band—before stalling and rotating back to the downside.By the close, the price had fallen back below the 1.3924–1.3937 swing area, and selling pressure has continued into today. The pair has now broken below the 100-hour moving average at 1.38947 and the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the November 2025 high to the January low, which comes in at 1.3888. That break shifts the near-term bias back to the downside.Those two levels—the 100-hour MA (1.38947) and the 61.8% retracement (1.3888)—now act as risk-defining resistance. As long as the price stays below, sellers remain in control and further downside probing is likely following last week’s sharp rally.On the downside, the next key target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move up from last week’s low at 1.3852. A move below that level, followed by a break of the nearby swing level at 1.3844, would give sellers more confidence and open the door for a deeper correction.Conversely, if the 1.3852–1.3844 support zone holds, the current move lower can be viewed as a plain-vanilla correction within the broader bullish trend.Key levels to watch:Resistance: 1.3888 (61.8%), 1.38947 (100-hour MA) Support: 1.3852 (38.2%), 1.3844 (swing level) This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was 51.0Today's March release showed the headline index falling to exactly 50.0, down from 51.0 in February, signaling a stagnation of manufacturing activity. Production declined for the first time this year, dragged down in part by slower delivery of inputs linked to supply chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East. New orders fell modestly, with tariffs on trade with the United States continuing to suppress demand—export volumes contracted for the fourteenth consecutive month and at a marked pace. Firms drew down existing inventories rather than placing new orders, and purchasing activity contracted marginally as a result.On the price front, input cost inflation ticked up to its highest level since August, driven by rising fuel prices and supplier charges tied to the Middle East conflict. Manufacturers passed on higher costs where possible, though output charge inflation actually softened to a three-month low. Employment fell marginally for the first time in three months, with some firms restructuring and scaling back capacity to match weaker order books. Business confidence regarding the year-ahead outlook slipped to a three-month low and remained well below its historical average, weighed down by uncertainty around both tariffs and the broader global impact of the conflict.Commenting on the latest survey results, Paul Smith, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence said: “Canada’s manufacturing sector again experienced subdued performance during March. Production declined marginally and new orders were down modestly, in part linked to tariffs on trade with the neighbouring United States. “Firms also noted that high prices were a problem for clients, but with costs rising sharply again amid supply chain disruption and increased fuel prices stemming from the war in the Middle East, manufacturers saw little choice but to increase their own charges. “The conflict in the Middle East, which had a relatively muted impact on the Canadian manufacturing sector compared to regions like Europe in March, has understandably raised the level of uncertainty in the outlook. With tariffs also still a concern for many firms, confidence regarding production in the year ahead fell to a three-month low and remained way below its average level.”The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI is compiled from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers at around 400 Canadian manufacturers, stratified by sector and workforce size based on GDP contributions. A reading above 50 signals expansion from the prior month, while below 50 indicates contraction. The PMI is a weighted composite of five subindices: new orders (30%), output (25%), employment (20%), supplier delivery times (15%), and stocks of purchases (10%). It is one of the most widely followed leading indicators of Canadian industrial health. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Trump spoke with Reuters in an interview:Does not care about nuclear material, will watch via satelliteWill express 'my disgust' with NATO in speech and says he is absolutely considering withdrawingIran will not have a nuclear weapon, nor do they want oneWe have some more targets left. If we have to, we will do spot hitsWe're going to be out of Iran pretty quickly, won't give timelineWe've had full regime changeSo this is the communication strategy: Claim a win, say there was regime change and blame any problems on NATO. Today's speech will be part of that PR campaign.In terms of NATO, the President can't unilaterally withdraw from NATO, it takes a two-thirds approval from the Senate and approval from the House. It's also prohibited to use any federal funds to facilitate a withdrawal. However, in terms of the US coming to anyone's defense in NATO, the President can simply ignore any attack on a NATO member (this was always the case) and the mutual defense treaty has always required members to take "such action as it deems necessary" if an ally is attacked.In essence, while Congress has "locked the door" to keep the US inside the building legally, the President still holds the keys to the "lights and heat."The bigger question here is why leave at all? The President has been successful in driving spending from allies higher but this move makes me wonder if Greeland and the Panama Canal or more are back on the table (or never left). This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

War shocks have increased risks to economy and inflationHe can see scenarios of both hiking and cutting ratesMon pol currently at the low end of neutral (I think he means top of neutral range)Supply shocks carry greater inflation risks in current environmentTariffs are still inflation driver but should waneSays he's cautious about looking through energy shockBaseline case is good growth, moderating inflation and stable employmentSees unfavorable risks for employment and inflationDoesn't see stress from private creditThese comments are very much in-line with the consensus right now. The market is trying to figure out what will happen with the war but futures are pricing in a roughly 30% chance of a rate cut. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USDCHF has turned sharply lower after failing at a key topside resistance target defined by the upper channel trendline and prior highs from January 15 near 0.8041. That rejection shifted momentum, with the pair rotating back to the downside.In the process, the price has broken back below the 200-day moving average at 0.79438, increasing the bearish bias, and is now testing the lower boundary of the channel near 0.7903. Just below that level sits a tight cluster of technical support, including the rising 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.7894 and the 100-day moving average at 0.7888.That 0.7888–0.7903 zone is now a critical battleground. Buyers are leaning against it on the first test, helping to stall the decline. However, if that support cluster gives way, it would likely force buyers to step aside and open the door for sellers to take greater control and push the pair lower. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Trump's latest on Truth Social:Iran’s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!! President DJTTo be clear, Masoud Pezeshkian was the President before the conflict and remains the President.The kink here is that it's not clear that he's in charge or was ever in charge. The President in Iran is oftentimes a ceremonial figure who runs the civilian side of the government and needs permission from the Supreme Leader and the IRGC for policy. Lately, there are increasing signs of a fracture between the President and the IRGC.To me, it looks like the strategy from Trump is to exploit this fracture to basically offer peace to Iranians via the Presidency and claiming that the IRGC is defying negotiations. That could prompt the kind of internal turmoil that could eventually lead to regime change, or at least to instability.As for markets, there was a pop in equity futures initially but that's reversed. The problem here is that Hormuz seems to be back on the table as a negotiating issue when yesterday it looked like the US would just cut and run.Meanwhile, Iran's parliamentary speaker continues to post about markets and insider trading/market manipulation. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

If we have prolonged high energy prices and supply disruption, it will strain many countries quite seriouslyWe will have to act if appropriate, but tackling the source of the energy price shock is most importantI'm very clear we need to return inflation to target in a way that causes the least damage to growth and jobsWe look at inflation expectations very carefully, but short-run often follows headline inflationBusinesses I speak to say they have a real lack of pricing powerUK growth is below potential, labour market softeningMPC may debate the case for a precautionary rate rise, but needs to judge that in the context of the remit and how to return inflation to the targetGilt market moves orderly but stretched, we're watching it hourlyNeed to watch out for investor loss of confidence in private creditBoE Governor Andrew Bailey has emphasized that while the central bank is prepared to act if appropriate, the primary challenge remains tackling the fundamental source of the energy price shock, that is the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The goal for the MPC is to return inflation to its 2% target while minimizing the damage to economic growth and employment.Bailey noted that the MPC monitors inflation expectations with extreme care. There is a recognition that short-run expectations often mirror headline inflation, creating a feedback loop that policymakers must take into consideration. Bailey noted that discussions with business leaders suggest many firms lack pricing power, which may act as a natural brake on inflationary pressures as the economy slows.The broader macroeconomic indicators currently paint a picture of an economy under pressure, with UK growth remaining below potential and the labor market beginning to soften. The MPC may debate the merits of a precautionary rate hike, but also take the macroeconomic context into consideration.The market is currently pricing in 52 bps of tightening by year-end (two rate hikes) and a 39% chance of a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Bailey is trying to push back on such aggressive expectations as their bar for a rate hike is higher than market's. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Bank of England Governor Bailey struck a cautious tone, emphasizing risks around inflation, financial stability, and growth, while signaling the need to stay flexible on policy as conditions evolve.We will have to act if appropriate, but tackling source of energy price shock is most important If high energy prices and supply disruptions persist, it will strain many countries significantly Policy will respond if needed, but addressing the root cause of energy price shocks is most important I am very clear we need to returning inflation to target in way that causes least damage to growth Inflation expectations are closely monitored, though short-term moves often track headline inflation Businesses report a real lack of pricing power UK growth is below potential, with signs of a softening labor market MPC may consider a precautionary rate hike, but decisions depend on how inflation returns to target Gilt markets are “orderly but stretched,” and are being closely monitored Need to watch for potential loss of investor confidence in private credit markets This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Prior was -0.2% (revised to -0.1%)Details:Ex-autos +0.5% vs 0.3% expectedPrior ex autos 0.0% Ex autos and gas +0.4% vs 0.3% prior (revised to +0.2%)Control group +0.5% vs +0.3% expectedPrior control +0.3% (revised to +0.2%)Retail sales y/y +3.7% vs +3.2% priorIt's worth noting that the official Census Bureau advance estimate for February 2026 was originally scheduled for March 16 but has been delayed to April 1, 2026—so the government figures may be releasing today. The data below draws on the January Census report and the NRF's February reading based on alternative transaction data.In terms of sectors, we got strong hiring in health care today and also strong spending on health care. Clothing spending was also high and that all starts to look like the The Ozempic Economy™For background, retail sales are published monthly by the Census Bureau as part of its Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, covering sales at stores, restaurants, and online retailers. The report is one of the most closely watched indicators of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Because it is released about two weeks after the reference month, it offers a timely snapshot of household demand.The closing months of 2025 were uneven. November saw a solid 0.6% month-over-month gain—the strongest since July—boosted by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping. December unexpectedly stalled, with gains in building materials and sporting goods offset by declines in furniture, clothing, and electronics.January 2026 was initially reported as a 0.2% decline but was revised today to a smaller 0.1% dip, bringing the seasonally adjusted level to $734.0 billion. The control group—which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services and feeds directly into GDP calculations—managed a 0.3% increase that month, and year-over-year sales were up 3.2%.Today's advance estimate for February showed a solid rebound, with retail and food services sales rising 0.6% to $738.4 billion, up 3.7% from a year earlier. Retail trade alone also gained 0.6% on the month. Nonstore retailers posted a 7.5% year-over-year increase, and food services and drinking places were up 5.2% from February 2025. By category, health and personal care stores surged 2.3% month over month, clothing rose 2.0%, and sporting goods gained 1.3%. On the weaker side, food and beverage stores and furniture each fell 1.0%. The three-month period from December through February was up 3.1% from the same window a year ago. The next release, covering March, is scheduled for April 21. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

Prior was +63K (revised to +66K)Details:Goods +30K versus +16K last monthService +32K versus +47K last monthSmall business +85K vs +60K priorMedium businesses -20K vs -7K last monthLarge businesses -4K vs +10K last monthThis is back-to-back decent readings after a long sting of poor numbers. Adding 62,000 jobs isn't exactly setting the world on fire but it takes the pressure of the employment side of the Fed's mandate and nudges them closer to holding rates or hiking them.It's also nice to see growth in small businesses.The negative bent to the report is that 58,000 of the 62,000 jobs were in education/health services. Construction also added 30K jobs while trade/transport/utilities lost 58K jobs and manufacturing fell 11K.Wages for job stayers 4.5% vs 4.5% last monthWages for job changers 6.6% vs 6.3% last monthFor background, the ADP National Employment Report is a widely followed monthly gauge of U.S. private-sector hiring, produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It draws on aggregated and anonymized payroll data from over 26 million employees, making it one of the largest non-government labor market datasets available. Released on the first Wednesday of each month—typically two days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls report—it serves as an early read on employment trends for investors, policymakers, and businesses.“Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP after today's report. “In March, this solid performance was accompanied by a boost in pay gains for job-changers.”Private-sector job creation slowed markedly heading into 2026. For all of 2025, private employers added just 398,000 jobs, down sharply from 771,000 in 2024, extending a three-year deceleration in hiring. December 2025 saw a modest rebound of 41,000 jobs after a revised loss of 29,000 in November, but the recovery was uneven across sectors.January 2026 disappointed, with private payrolls rising by only about 22,000, well below the 48,000 consensus forecast. Healthcare was a bright spot, adding 74,000 positions, while professional and business services shed 57,000 jobs and manufacturing continued a losing streak dating back to March 2024.February brought a welcome pickup. Private employers added 63,000 jobs, the strongest monthly gain since July 2025 and above the 50,000 forecast. Education and health services led the way with 58,000 new positions, followed by construction at 19,000, while professional and business services lost another 30,000. Annual pay growth for job-stayers held at 4.5%, but the wage premium for switching employers fell to a record low, signaling that hiring strength remained concentrated in a handful of industries rather than broadening across the economy. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

EUROPEAN SESSION In the European session, we don't have much on the agenda other than the final Manufacturing PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. The data isn't going to change anything at this point, so the market reaction will likely be muted. We are currently in a risk-on sentiment triggered by US-Iran deal optimism after Trump suggested yesterday in a Truth Social post that he would be open to end the war with Iran without the Strait of Hormuz opening condition. The mood then improved further when the Iranian President said that they are ready to end the war but want guarantees. Finally, in the APAC session, Trump said that Iran doesn't even have to make a deal with the US for him to end the war as the US would leave as soon as it meets all the objectives. AMERICAN SESSIONIn the American session, we have the US ADP, the US Retail Sales and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. The ADP is expected at 40K vs 63K prior. I don't expect the market to care much about the data now that the focus switched to a potential deal. In fact, if we do get a deal, we might still get some weak data for a couple of months but conditions will then start to improve. If the US-Iran war escalates, on the other hand, the weak data will just exacerbate growth fears.The US Retail Sales M/M is expected at 0.5% vs -0.2% prior, while the Ex-Autos M/M measure is seen at 0.3% vs 0.0% prior, The more important Retail Control M/M figure is expected at 0.3% vs 0.3%. Retail Sales is generally a market-moving report but the reaction are almost always faded because it's a volatile data set. Moreover, note that this is February data, so it's old news now and the market will just ignore it.The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 52.5 vs. 52.4 prior. The S&P Global US Flash PMIs signalled an unwelcome combination of slower growth and rising inflation following the outbreak of war in the Middle East, according to the agency. The Flash Manufacturing PMI wasn't impacted as much as the Services PMI though. We can expect to see a weaker ISM employment index and a very strong prices index.Lastly, we have Trump addressing the nation at 21:00 ET/01:00 GMT giving an "important" update on Iran. The only thing that scares me a little here is that it's going to be after market hours. He usually delivers good news during market hours.CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS10:30 GMT/06:30 ET - ECB's Cipollone (neutral - voter)13:05 GMT/09:05 ET - Fed's Musalem (hawkish - non voter)13:10 GMT/09:10 ET - Fed's Barr (neutral - voter) This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

There is perhaps just one to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold below.That being for EUR/USD at the 1.1600 level. The dollar fell off yesterday amid a marked improvement in the risk mood, with talks of US president Trump looking to wrap up the war in Iran and declaring "victory" - whatever that may mean.It was enough to keep stocks buoyed alongside arguably some month-end and quarter-end rebalancing. As for the dollar, it dropped off across the board and that's leaving traders in a bit of a bind to start April trading.Trump will be due to address the nation later at night today and is set to "provide an important update on Iran". Given that he has already reached his pain threshold on markets with regards to the war, we may yet see him call for an end to the conflict. That might raise questions about what the last month has been about, given the lack of any meaningful progress in pressuring Iran on a nuclear deal.For markets, it's all about the Strait of Hormuz. The US pulling back might help to lift risk sentiment only provided that it leads to the reopening of the strait. It's all down to Iran now in making that call and whether they want to give up such leverage.Circling back to the expiries, the ones for EUR/USD don't tie to any technical significance. But amid a slightly softer dollar now, the expiries could act alongside offers in limiting price action in European morning trade at least. That as we wait on Trump's address, which is scheduled for 0100 GMT later.For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.Head on over to investingLive (formerly ForexLive) to get in on the know! This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.